• TechnicalMaster·09-22TechnicalMaster

      After Fed Decision, VIX Futures See Important Signal: Sell or Rebound?

      After the Fed announced a 75bps rate hike at 2pm as expected, and the US stock $S&P 500 (.SPX)$ turned from a slight up to a downturn, the trading volume increased, $(SPX)$ fell below 3800 points and closed at 3789 points.The sell signal of distribution appeared, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ surged more than11%.'Fear gauge' futures close to signaling U.S. stock selling……At the same time, the October Volatility Index futures $Volatility Index - Oct 2022(VIX2210)$ which linked to "fear gauge" VIX rose 0.28 points from November VIX futures $Volatility Index - Nov 2022(VIX2211)$ , the largest difference since mid-June, a signal that has historically marked the market facing huge selling pressure. , but sometimes before the stock market rebounds.Note: VIX futures, which reflect volatility expectations in the coming months, generally remain in an uptrend, and near-term futures prices are also generally relatively lower than futures prices in the coming months.Once an inversion happened, where near-term contracts are more expensive than forward contracts, indicates heightened investor fears about near-term events, raising the cost of hedging.What happened after a inversion in history?Since 2020, such signals have appeared prominently 5 times, with 2 subsequent market rebounds, the most recent of which was in mid-June. A sharp sell-off at the time pushed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to a bear market low. The index quickly bounced back 17%, though most of those gains were pared back amid fears the Fed would take a more hawkish-than-expected stance.Susquehanna International Group co-head of derivatives strategy, Chris Murphy said an inversion in VIX futures often indicates a build-up of risk in the current market, "which is why we often see it as an indicator of capitulation."Murphy said that while this inversion may signal increased selling pressure, it does not necessarily mean that the recent market rout will end immediately.Technically, Strong technical friends believe that the kinetic energy history of MACD shows that there is a need for a rebound in the near future.So does this signal indicate that the crash will continue, or may it indicate that the short-term oversold pressure will intensify and will usher in a rebound?Please vote.The market is trying to find a direction recently, no doubt huge voliatile woule come. For your asset safe, please hold on for a while after clear.
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      After Fed Decision, VIX Futures See Important Signal: Sell or Rebound?
    • Alvin 邹咏翰·09-22Alvin 邹咏翰

      Fed raised 0.75% as expected but markets slumped. Why?

      The Fed raised the interest rate by 0.75% which was expected but the S&P 500 reversed course and closed down 2% for the day.Shouldn't the market have already priced in this rate hike?Yes, the market has priced in the current rate hike but it has not priced in the future rate hikes.There was a shift in the expected rate hikes after the last Fed meeting. So the market adjusted for the new piece of information.Markets are forward looking.This is where we look at the Fed's dot plot - a chart that records each Fed official's projection for the central bank's key short-term interest rate.In June, the median 2022 year-end projection was 3.4% while for end-2023 was 3.8%.The dot plot released yesterday showed that the expectation has risen. End-2022 projection rose to 4 - 4.5% while end-2023 saw 4.5 - 5% estimates.There's also no easing of interest rate until 2024.A very quick escalation considering only 3 months have passed.While the accuracy of the dot plot is a suspect, it does signal how increasingly hawkish the Fed has become which brings about more recessionary fears to the markets.It doesn't help when the Fed chairman's language was harsher than previous speeches. The term 'soft landing' has been ditched and Powell replaced it with 'some pain'.He said, "higher interest rates, slower growth and a softening labor market are all painful for the public that we serve, but they're not as painful as failing to restore price stability."It is also going to be painful for growth stocks for the next few years too.PS: I will be doing a live webinar on Tiger platform on 27 Sep 2022 - register here https://live.byteoc.com/9999/6253271
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      Fed raised 0.75% as expected but markets slumped. Why?
    • Tiger_chat·09-22Tiger_chat

      [TOPIC] Fed Crushed Market; But SPX. Up Even With 20% Rate?

      US stocks experienced roller coaster last night. Chart from Tiger Trade app$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed down 1.79% at 11220.19, a new low since July 1;$S&P 500 (.SPX)$ was down 1.71% at 3789.93, a new low since June 30;$Dow Jones (.DJI)$ was down 1.7% at 30183.78, a new low since June 17.1. Dot Plot Shows More Rate Hikes Than ExpectedPowell's rhetoric was very hawkish, showing a determination to lower inflation.I wish there were a painless way to get inflation down, but there isn't.According to the latest dot plot, after the 75bps increase in September as expected, the benchmark rate is expected to reach 4%-4.5% at the end of the year, much higher than the 3.4% expected in June. Dot plot from cnbcBased on this plot, Fed will have to raise rates by another 125bps by the end of the year, with the first rate cut to wait until 2024. Let's look at analyst's expectations:Chart made by Tiger Trade2. More Rate Hikes Necessarily Means Market Crash? The market plunged mainly because the benchmark rate increased, and the expectation of a rate cut next year was crushed. So how will US stocks perform when more rate hikes are ahead?Let's look at the historical performance during the Great Inflation when Volcker, the Fed chairman, raised the fund rate to 20% (compared to the current 4.5% expectations).Chart from cnbc1) Generally speaking, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ did fall into a bear market during this decade.chart from real investment advice2) But the greatest decline was not in the period when interest rates peaked (20%), but during the previous cycle of rate hikes. After all, the stock market is about expectations. The market crashed  when the rate was raised to around 15%, but continued upward momentum when the rate was increased to 20%.chart from real investment adviceBut the question is we don't know we are in the 1st or the 2nd cycle. It's hard to predict the market.Do you think the stock market will rebound after the fear sentiment passed?How do you comment on Volcker's aggressive rate hikes?Will we repeat the Great Inflation?Join our topic and post to win hundreds of tiger coins~
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      [TOPIC] Fed Crushed Market; But SPX. Up Even With 20% Rate?
    • highhand·09-22highhand
      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Party Pooper!Just when everyone was enjoying July and August rally, in came Sep and potentially Oct to spoil the fun.After last night's confirmation of 75bp hike, the expected relief was short lived. Markets tumbled further and closed red, with SPX hanging on to 3790 support. RSI-14 is at 33.74 now. See first plot.If it dips under 30, then index might be considered oversold. We need to watch next few days for this signal. The NASDAQ RSI is slightly higher at 34.93.  If the index dips below 30 but crosses back the 30 mark subsequently, it might be a bullish signal to buy in for a rally. However, there's one more impending consideration - midterm elections happening 8 Nov.Second and third plots show average SPX returns are flat or negative, right up to end Oct. There's also higher volatility for daily returns of individual months in mid term election years. Once mid term elections are over, the SPX generally rises till year end. This is because uncertainty in terms of governance is removed.  Towards year end, we will also have more CPI data and stronger indication from the Fed in terms of rate hike targets. With more certainty, we might be able to get the party started again. 🥳🎊🎉@TigerStars  @MillionaireTiger  @Tiger_chat  
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    • Tiger_Comments·09-22Tiger_Comments

      Super Hawkish Fed: Strategists Say USD Is The Only Choice

      Wall Street strategists say the Federal Reserve's policy decision is once again at the hawkish end of expectations, which would leave the dollar as the only choice.On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third consecutive time by 75 basis points, as expected, raising the benchmark rate to a range of 3%-3.25%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that he continues to insist on controlling inflation and is adjusting policy to a level that is sufficient to limit economic growth.The Fed's newly released dot plot shows that the Fed expects the benchmark interest rate to rise to 4.4% by the end of this year, 100 basis points higher than forecast.1) David Croy, a strategist at ANZ Group, said: After the volatility in the hours following the Fed's rate hike, the market clearly sided with the dollar. The dollar offers better arbitrage and safe-haven appeal as concerns about the downside of US and global growth gradually intensify.He noted thatOver the past year or so, the dollar has appreciated in line with the Fed's policy expectations. This is unlikely to change as the Fed is now in a big lead. It is difficult for the market to stop the strength of the dollar at the moment".2) Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, believes that the Fed's aggressive tightening has pushed the dollar into the final stages of a strong rally. The road to dollar weakness is still tortuous, which requires a soft landing and a global economic recovery.3) Masahiro Ichikawa, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, believes the Fed has been tougher than the market had expected. Although the 75 bps has been priced in, the dot plot shows the Fed's relatively tough stance and its economic forecasts seem to point to a deterioration in the economy.I expect the stock market to remain unstable until we see signs of slowing inflation. US Treasury yields will remain high, which also means the dollar will remain firm against the yen.4) Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said Asian markets will continue to come under pressure as money continues to pull out of the region, underestimating the Fed's tightening policies and the recession that could follow.Local stock and foreign exchange markets will now have to priced in longer-term restrictive policies and discard the idea that the Fed will quickly ease policy and resume growth.What's your choice under though Fed rate hikes?Share your thoughts in the comment section~
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      Super Hawkish Fed: Strategists Say USD Is The Only Choice
    • koolgal·09-23 10:03koolgal
      After Jerome Powell's speech yesterday, there is no doubt now that he is intent on further aggressive rate hikes until the persistent high inflation is under control.He believes that it is the only way to control inflation and told the markets that there will be more pain ahead. However it is a fine balancing act, like walking on a tight rope.  The ghost of Paul Volcker may haunt Powell.   Paul Volcker raised interest rates to as high as 20% and recession followed. Currently there is Fear in the markets that recession is inevitable and will be coming soon on the back of high inflation.  Perhaps recession is what is needed to reset the economy. However this is a great opportunity to buy quality stocks at huge discounts.  A good example is  Alphabet which is currently down 30% in just 1 year and has gone below 100.00 just yesterday.   This is a great company with phenomenal growth ahead, and ticks all the core fundamentals of a quality stock. Markets always rebound after downturns.  I would stay the course and continue to hold my stocks for the long haul.  No matter what the economic cycles maybe, I believe that it is important to hold these quality stocks that will be resilient in good times and bad. I am reminded of Warren Buffett who said that it is the business of the company that counts and not the economic cycles. So I am prepared for more pain ahead but I look to the future with confidence and optimism knowing that it is time in the market that counts, and not timing the market. @Tiger_chat  @MillionaireTiger  
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    • SPOT_ON·09-22SPOT_ON
      There will be more.pain ahead for next 1 to 2 months... roubini already said market will go down another 40% from here...All the indices are still very high[Spurting] [Put] [Put] [Weak]  @Daily_Discussion  @MHh  @rL  @Success88  @rL  @JL28168  @MSing  @HelenJanet  @AhGong  @Aqaz  @Youn7276  @LMSunshine  
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    • JacksNiffler·09-22JacksNiffler

      Is this 99% dividend yield stock offers a 100-1 odds win?

      What does a dividend yield of 99% mean? As long as the company keeps this dividend level, after one year, the stock will be given to you for nothing!How to make it a 100% probability winning? Options can help you!Stocks with stable high dividend will be more popular in the inflation age.What company can achieve a dividend yield of 99%?It went public in 2021. 52-week is US$68 in the beginning of the year was, now only US$27. It has paid dividends of nearly US $30, and the TTM dividend yield reaches 99%. It is $ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.(ZIM)$ ZIM is an Israeli shipping company, with a market value of $3.2 billion at present. Although it was only listed in 2021 (IPO price is $9.51), the company was founded in 1945.Unlike $AP MOELLER - MAERSK A/S(0O77.UK)$, MSC, CMA CGM and$COSCO SHIP HOLD(01919)$, ZIM concerntrate on "Niche Route", that is, it is not a conventional route, but a specially customized shipping route according to the needs of users.In other words,They can choose "profitable and efficient" lines as much as possible within their own carrying range, so as to operate in a relatively lightweight way.This is why ZIM's performance after the pandemic has been so excellent.More profit means more capable of dividend. In March this year, it actually paid dividends of $17/share, and since its listing, the dividends reached $29.1.What does this mean?If you buy at the current price of $27.14 and get another $29 dividend in the next year, you can fully recover the cost even after deducting dividend tax. Then ZIM shares are just bonus!Any risks.Of courseThe company is hard to maintain such a high dividend level.What is level of dividend in the coming year?How much a company pays dividends depends on how much profit it makes.Many companies with long-term stable dividends have the basis of long-term stable profits. ZIM's dividend is high, but not steady. Since its listing time not long, the current dividend yield of 99% could be the peak.However, the management also declare it would increase dividend payout rate to over 30% on the basis of the previous 20%, and increased to 50% in the future. This also gives many investors hope.Dividend payout ratio is the ratio of dividends paid to current profits.ZIM's dividend payout rate for the past 12 months is 52%. From Bloomber, ZIM's EPS consensus next 12 month is 25.5 US dollars .If the company maintains a 50% dividend payout rate, the dividend will also reach $12.25, which is equivalent to 45% of the current $27.That is to say, if ZIM's share price can remain at $27 after one year,With this dividend alone, there will be 40% after-tax income.Of course, many friends also understand that dividends should be ex-dividend. That is to say, if $27 is divided into $10, it will directly remove the ex-right part of the stock price. If stock price declines,  the price-earnings ratio declines too. So it can also attract more investors. Although ZIM is not supported by various investment banks, hedge funds and pensions, its influence exists, and attracts a group of celebrities including Soros.Although Soros has closes its position in Q2, Jim Simons, Jeremy Grantham and other bosses stil stand on. Some of them may have started to lose, but it may not be an opportunity for our investors who hold money. What if the stock price falls?Personally, I think the way ZIM does business may make its performance "return to normal" after explosive growth, but it will not plummet. The biggest problem should be recession. The recession will definitely lead to the further contraction of the freight industry, resulting in a decline in the activity of freight transportation.We can see from the Baltic Dry Goods Index (BDI) after Q1 this year that with the improvement of supply chain problems, the activity of shipping decreases, and with the increase of recession expectations, it is possible to fall further.Comparing ZIM stock price with BDI, which is positively correlated most of the time, and occasionally negative correlation will be corrected within two months. From this point of view, this deviation after September this year is likely to be corrected in the next 1-2 months.As for whether it will continue to soar, I am not sure.But there is a factor that may bring some benefits.Natural gas transportation. Winter is coming. Europe can't use Russian natural gas. It must be shipped from far away places, including the United States and AsiaZhou, even if it is transported from Norway to the European continent, it needs ships. ZIM has already cooperated with$Royal Dutch Shell PLC(RDS.A)$Signed a 10-year shipping agreement with more than $1 billion.There is another factor that is China's reopen.ZIM has a lot of business in Shanghai.Even so, if the secondary market price continues to fall, we may not sit still. Because ZIM has options, and the exercise price of options will not change because of dividends, but will be reflected by the option price.The simplest way,It is to bring the income into the bag in advance by means of "covered CALL".If dividends are paid at the end of November, the in-price options in December can be sold, even if they are very deep in the price, it doesn't matter. At most, the potential stock price rise income is not needed, but in exchange for stable dividend income.Therefore, the operation is also very simple.To sum up:1. ZIM is a flexible shipping company, which is more resistant to fighting than ordinary shipping companies.2. ZIM has a history of high dividends and the expect to keep high dividends, which can greatly enhance investment return.3. If you are afraid of the stock price falling, sell the covered call option in advance and lock in the income in advance.Good Luck and Happy Trading!
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      Is this 99% dividend yield stock offers a 100-1 odds win?
    • TB_Research·09-22TB_Research

      Hawkish Fed: Higher interest rates for a longer time

      Here are the key takeaways of US Fed September meeting:Higher interest rates for a longer timeVolcker-esque PowellPutin factorHigher interest rates for a longer timeThe US Fed took an indirect way to shock the market. It stuck to the market expectations of raising interest rate by 75 bps.But what caught the market by surprise is that itraised the dot plot significantly. The key 2023 median dot was raised to 4.625%. This is much higher than the market expectations of 4.1% for the end of next year. Below are the details of the dot plots:2022: 4.375% versus 4.125% expected, 4.23% priced2023: 4.625% versus 4.375% expected, 4.12% priced2024: 3.875% versus ~ 4% expected, 3.47% priced2025: 2.875% versus ~ 3.375% expected, 3.23% pricedLong-run: 2.5% versus 2.50% expectedIn other words, the US Fed is communicating to the markets that interest rates are heading higher and will stay there “for some time.” This is in stark contrast to Fed Chair Powell’s loose monetary policy stance last year when he regarded inflation as ‘transitory’.Volcker-esque PowellPowell also stated that we are taking “forceful and rapid steps” to bring inflation to 2%. He is showing his resolve that he will do whatever it takes to stop inflation. This is similar to the former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker who broke high inflation with punishing rate increases in the early 1980s.In a further similarity to Volcker, Powell appeared to have subtly reference Paul Volcker by quoting his autobiography, “Keeping At It.” Towards the end of his opening statement, he states that the US Fed will “keep at it” in their fight against inflation.This is also nothing new, as Powell gave a speech earlier this month with a subtle reference to Volcker that “we will keep at it” until the fight against inflation is over.Putin factorRussia President Vladimir Putin could possibly have made Powell’s fight against inflation a tougher one.Yesterday, he announced the partial mobilization of the Russian population, including calling military reservists into active service. This is an escalation of the Ukraine conflict and could possibly boost crude oil prices.In the recent August CPI figures, one silver lining is the falling oil prices as gasoline prices fell 10.6% in August, the biggest monthly drop in more than two years. But inflation was still red hot as everything else increased.Now, consumer prices could come down as a possible recession reduce demand for consumer goods and services. But, this could benegated if oil prices shoot back up.Crude oil prices are languishing at $84.1. This is about a 30% drop from the high of $121.7 this year. If crude oil prices rally back to $120 as a result of geopolitical tensions, inflation will continue to be a problem, regardless of how many rate hikes the US Fed makes. This will be a worst-case scenario for Powell.
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      Hawkish Fed: Higher interest rates for a longer time
    • Shanosky·09-22Shanosky

      Yes, Interest Rates Really Matter

      A seemingly arbitrary figure can inflict real harm.Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on UnsplashWe need to prioritize the tangible over the academic.The conversation around interest rates is almost invariably the latter. We debate over inflation reduction techniques, talk about things like “homebuilder sentiment” or “lender volume,” and generally take a macro-level approach when discussing the subject. Maybe that’s why so few “regular” people seem to know or care about interest rates.And that’s a mistake. Because interest rates can have a severe impact on our actual day-to-day lives. Anyone who lives, either previously or currently, in a household with a shoestring budget understands this intrinsically, even if they don’t know the mechanics behind it. In addition to salary stagnation and runaway costs, interest rates help put the squeeze on the working and middle classes.$40 here, $20 there. It’s not a pretty lethal blow, nor is it death by 1,000 papercuts. It’s more of the “multiple puncture wounds” variety. Several recurring expenses become more…well, expensive, and suddenly, your lifestyle doesn’t work anymore.When need to focus on the seimpacts when we’re discussing interest rates, inflation and macroeconomic sentiment are worthy subjects, but they’re best left to the experts. The ordinary public wants to know what interest rates mean to their household. We should tell them.Big ticketThe most obvious impact is on large, financed purchases. This is no surprise. Obviously, a higher interest rate will have a more significant financial impact (in raw totals) on larger balances than it does on small ones. Mortgages and car loans come to mind.Way back in the ancient times of April, in this very publication,I commented that mortgage volume would be decreasingas interest rates rise. It was part of a larger piece on our housing markets, and it wasn’t a point up for debate. Subsequently,interest rates rose, andmortgage volume declined sharply. This was not a “Bold Prediction”like those on NFL Network on Sunday mornings. This was predictable.Still, some disagreed. A few pointed out that “the average person doesn’t make a decision on whether or not they need a home based on interest rates.” Absolutely, they do not. No person just abruptly changes their entire life because interest rates moved from 4.15 to 3.85 or vice versa.Photo byDillon KyddonUnsplashBut the average bank definitely uses interest rates to calculate repayment ability and determine if that equally average person is going to get approved or declined. What the average Joewantsto do is irrelevant if he can’t get financing to buy the house. And, agree with them or not, some folks do monitor rates and may make their rent/buy decision based on timing. If they think they’re coming in at the top of the market, both in mortgage cost and home cost, they may opt to rent for another year.The difference between a $360,000 mortgage on a $400,000 home (with PMI) at the 2.75% I was giving out in 2021 versus the 6.0% banks are giving nowis roughly $700 monthly.Given that most banks hew pretty closely to a 40% debt-to-income requirement, that comes out to another $1,750 in income needed monthly to qualify, or $21,000 a year. Moving qualification standards up by $21,000 near the median purchase price takesa lotof people out of the market.The difference in payments as rates increase. Mortgage rates used: 2.75%, 6.0%, 8.0%. By author.That’s a tangible effect right there — previously, you had an option to become a homeowner. Now you don’t.That, in turn, can reduce demand, creating a need for price concessions. Price concessions can gradually turn into a down market, which can put recent homebuyers underwater. Particularly the (many) who opted for those 3% down payment programs or people who “took advantage” of 100% LTV equity financing.Rising interest rates don’t automatically mean a housing correction is incoming, but they certainly make it more likely than it would be in a low-interest environment. And each little hike prices another few thousand would-be buyers out of the market. Should people who arethatborderline be buying or getting approved in the first place? Debatable. But as interest rates move higher, larger and larger incomes get impacted.Some people also have home equitylinesrather than loans. These were unquestionably more popular as the market soared and people suddenly found themselves with $200,000 in “equity.” Those lines have variable rates. The impact begins immediately.The accumulationIncreases like that may seem marginally important at best, but that really depends on the household. I spend most of my time writing about the working class. This group (which is way larger than you think) often has a budget that balances by somewhere between $20 and $100 monthly. That’s in a good month — one where no one gets a flat tire, needs to visit a doctor, or accidentally threw out some perfectly good food.40% of American households earn less than $52,000 annually. You take care of a couple of kids on that salary and you better believe you’ll notice $50. The difference between 4% and 8% on a used car loan, all your credit card APRs trending up, that darn home equity line, etc. The ends might be meeting for now, but for how much longer?If your debt is getting more expensive at the same time that costs start rising overall (as is happening right now), it can be doubly worrisome. The increased debt service hampers the ability to save properly for increased costs. Those costs make it more difficult to have leftover money for the higher debt service. You get the point.The only way out of that cycle is with a sudden and fortuitous income increase and, well, good luck with that. People who have time and space for second jobs will pick one up. Those who already have one? Tough luck.Photo byCardMapr.nlonUnsplashIf you’re wealthy, though, all of this is good news. First of all, people may be more desperate for work, so you may be able to pay them less. Costs and budgets aren’t really a major concern for this group, and the rising interest rates mean a higher yield on their investments and savings. Their increased asset growth should offset any price increases and then some.That should ultimately pour more fuel on the already-raging inferno that we call wealth disparity. In America,where that trend has been downright horrible for years, this could also exacerbate social and political tensions.Of course, none of these changes will occur overnight or in reaction to one minor interest rate hike. Taken together and over a sustained period of time? It may be a different story.HorizonsThe stock market had a bad day today, as the Fed appears set to continue raising rates. Of course, that sentence is exactly what turns most people off from the interest rate discussion. I could also add that homebuilder sentiment fell for the 9th month straight, but who cares?The point is that this climate isn’t getting better. It’s getting worse. Everything we discussed above will be our reality. It’s not an academic exercise. Rising costs and stagnant wages have already pushed the working class to the brink. There’s a good chance they’ve had to take out some credit card debt to cover unexpected expenses. That debt’s about to get more expensive along with everything else.Of course, this is also happening alongside perhaps the biggest housing affordability crisis we’ve seen in America, with other nations facing similar problems. Not a great time to make things even tighter.A two-pronged approach is needed. We still need to focus on locking in the wage gains workers saw following the pandemic and building upon them. The freelance and gig economies may continue to do some of this work for us, and trade unions are growing more popular. Still, we’ll need to monitor wages closely when so much of the country is struggling.The cost side is where we really need some work. Yes, inflation is a problem for these families too, and that’s what the interest rate hikes are meant to combat. Hopefully, they do some good. But are supply chain problems caused by a global pandemic and international conflict something that can be one away with through interest rate hikes? Unlikely.We may need to get significantly more serious on issues like affordable housing or loosening up zoning laws to allow more multi-unit buildings. The latter is a local issue and will face immeasurable pushback in many communities. The former is up to the federal government and…well, I don’t think I need to say any more than that.By all accounts, more pain is ahead. We can only hope this storm is short-lived. Many of us are unprepared, and it appears that no help is coming.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!$DJIA(.DJI)$  $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$
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      Yes, Interest Rates Really Matter
    • xuero·09-25 07:32xuero
      I believed most of us here are already in the market. Although I still believe that whatever goes down will come up, my mood still joins in a roller coaster ride with the indices. Even with bullets, I also don't dare to any how shoot. As a small retail investor, I cannot do anything except to pray that Powell will says something positive to lift the mood. [Bless] [Call] [Call] [Call] 
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    • melson·09-23 11:37melson
      think like a businessman rather than an investor. i used to be an entrepreneur, there is so much overhead and cost of goods involved, investing is so much simpler just riding on other's business. whenever there is a drop in price from invested price, i would treat it as overhead and cost of goods. having this mindset is key to investment success. a businessman will not sell their entire business just because the stock price fell 20% in a day. it's a good time to sell some usd to hedge the drop in stock prices. cheers or cheer up.
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    • Optionspuppy·09-24 20:04Optionspuppy
      If I have $30000 I will sell call at 365 for 25 months then buy 100 spy And wait  Almost 20% for 25 months return 
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    • WongKonHow·09-22WongKonHow

      Dollar Towering, Stocks Cowering as Fed Hikes Higher

      "The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish to the extent that policy needs to be more restrictive, or restrictive for longer," Fed Chair Jerome PowellThe Fed raised its benchmark rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, the third such rise in a row, and officials project rates hitting 4.4% this year - higher than markets had priced in before the meeting, 100 bps more than the Fed projected three months ago.Central bank meetings in the Philippines, Indonesia, Switzerland, Britain and Norway are due later in the day with hikes expected everywhere.How has it impacted the market so far?• Dollar rose• Short-dated bonds sold off – Yield curve inverted• Wall Street fell overnight• Extending into Asia sessionThough interest rates should continue to higher both in the short and long-term, and shorter-term faster than the long end, there are some silver linings to note.$Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$  $Micro 2-Year Yield - main 2209(2YYmain)$  $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2209(10Ymain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
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      Dollar Towering, Stocks Cowering as Fed Hikes Higher
    • boardy·09-24 10:50boardy
      Trying to pick the turning piont is probably wishful thinking. However, I am in the belief we must be closer to the bottom than the top given how far back the market has come. I would be surprised if in 3 months time we are below where we are today. The question to answer is where the low piont sits I guess.
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    • mikey189·09-22mikey189
      But is the inflation really due to cheap credit? Or the war in ukraine.  High gas /electricity/petrol prices are not due to cheap credit. These are business costs that skyrocketed due to warmonger putin. Neutalize putin and the equation will balance. With wrong economic move by fed we are sure going to a majorecession.
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    • StickyRice·09-25 08:33StickyRice
      Fed's dot plot signals policy rate topping 4% in 2022, peaking in 2023In a looming battle against persistently high inflation, most of the top Federal Reserve officials expect the central bank's benchmark lending rate to top 4% by the end of 2022. From there, monetary policymakers expect further hikes in 2023 before projecting cuts in 2024 and beyond.Those predictions came according to the central bank's so-called dot plot, a closely watched summary of expectations for the future outlined by 19 members of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee.For 2023, the majority of officials (12) now see the key rate reaching a level between 4.50% and 5%, while the most dovish prediction comes from one member expecting rates to top out at 3.75%-4%. In the following year, the dot plot shows a wide dispersion of rate forecasts ranging from 2.75% to 4.75%. The Fed's June estimate, by comparison, revealed most policymakers then believedV the fed funds rate will reach at least 3.25% by year-end, followed by more rate hikes in 2023 and cuts in 2024.Looking at the real economy, the Fed has cut its economic prediction for 2022 through 2024 as it seeks to bring demand and supply back into better balance. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product in 2023 is now anticipated to be 0.2% compared with the 1.7% predicted in June.Looking to next year, GDP in 2023 is now forecast to be 1.2% vs. the 1.7% projected in June. For 2024, economic output is now targeted at 1.7% vs. the 1.9% estimate issued in June.The Fed, meanwhile, targeted the 2022 unemployment rate to be 3.8%, slightly surpassing June's forecast of 3.7%. That rate is expected to rise to 4.4% in 2023 and stay there in 2024, exceeding the previous projections.Turning to inflation, the Fed sees the PCE inflation gauge coming at 5.4% in 2022, up from the 5.2% estimate issued in June. 2023's headline inflation will then decelerate to 2.8% vs. 2.6% in June's prediction. 2024 PCE to be 2.3% vs. the 2.2% projected in June's estimate.@TigerStars @CaptainTiger 
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    • Dimitrios_1963·09-24 23:11Dimitrios_1963

      US Market| Thoughts on US Stock Market

      Hello everyone! Today I will share some news about US stock market with you.Dow Update. Closes just below the June lows after hitting the 29265 level with conviction in the selling, So no real double bottom, just downward momentum. Uncertainty for Inflation and a Hawkish FED A 4.5% Fed 🤔 rate being priced in.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!$DJIA(.DJI)$  $S&P 500(.SPX)$  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$
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      US Market| Thoughts on US Stock Market
    • Aqaz·09-23 23:57Aqaz
      The U.S. stock has been on the downward trend for a month and The Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jetome Powell has pushed it lower. The three major indexes have plummeted for the last four consecutive days. They start each trading day with a new low. The stock market's downward trend is not just dueto the 75 bps resolution. It is the Federal Reserve'sintention of continuing to hike interest rate until 4.6% in 2023 that chill the market. Investors now gotthe message loud and clear that the Federsl Reserve will push ahead with the most aggressive tightening of monetary policy since the early 1980s.Dow Jones Industrial Average has plummeted 1.5% to 29,626 points, broken below the psychological support of 30,000 points. The S&P 500 index is now at 3,693 points, dropped by 1.72%.The technology-heavy Nasdaq loss 1.73% to 10,874 points. The market will need a miracle to rebound now. 
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    • StarLuck·09-23 08:01StarLuck

      Stocks fall for third day as investors mull rate hike

      U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday to cap a turbulent session after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement and subsequent remarks from Chair Jerome Powell sent markets into disarray.The benchmark S&P 500 slid 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 100 points, or 0.4%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite tumbled 1.4%. The moves extend a Fed-induced sell-off Wednesday that saw the S&P 500 and Dow each erase around 1.7% and the Nasdaq plummet 1.8%, and mark a third straight day of declines for U.S. equity markets.Elsewhere in major moves in the aftermath of the Fed’s decision, the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury note held near 4.1%, the highest since 2007, while the 10-year remained near 3.5%, its highest level since 2011.On Wednesday, U.S. central bank officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a third straight time, bringing the federal funds rate to a new range of 3.0% to 3.25% from a current range between 2.25% and 2.5%.Policymakers also expect to lift rates higher than before and maintain that level, projecting the fed funds rate rising to 4.4% by the end of this year and 4.6% by the end of 2023. That’s up from 3.4% for this year and 3.8% previously.The Fed's move was followed Thursday by a host of central banks across the globe. The Bank of England raised its key rate by 50 basis points, and Switzerland's National Bank hiked by 75 basis points. Market observers also expect the European Central Bank to raise rates when it meets next month.“With the new rate projections, the Fed is engineering a hard landing – a soft landing is almost out of the question,” Principal Global Investors Chief Global Strategist Seema Shah said. “Powell’s admission that there will be below-trend growth for a period should be translated as central bank speak for ‘recession.’”Certain economic data points reflected the Fed's campaign. Mortgage rates continued a spiral upward, nearly hitting a 6.3% on a 30-year fixed loan and remaining at their highest level since 2008.Elsewhere, initial jobless claims edged up to 213,000 in the week ended Sept. 17 from a downwardly revised 208,000 the prior week — the lowest since May — the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists called for 217,000 claims, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg.In corporate news, shares of Lennar (LEN) rose 2% on the heels of earnings, even as the homebuilder said its third quarter results were impacted by higher rates.KB Home (KBH) was also a mover after the company cited headwinds from ongoing supply chain constraints and warned that those issues may impact fourth quarter results. Shares slid 5%.The S&P's losses Wednesday marked the index's 29th decline this year between 1% and 2% – the most since 2008, which had 34 such declines, per data from Compound Advisors. It was able to avoid a 30th on Thursday.@MillionaireTiger @CaptainTiger @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion 
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      Stocks fall for third day as investors mull rate hike