• FrankieRed·08-29FrankieRed
      $SEA LTD(SE)$  Sea is a very good company manage by Singaporean.  Why the price is so low?
      90Comment
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    • Jk99·08-26Jk99
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ BullishBullishBullishit will bounce back !
      62Comment
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    • Take courage·08-25Take courage
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ will be a good buy once it falls below $62mark....
      84Comment
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    • Bunifa Latif·08-23Bunifa Latif
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ Sea you?Sea Limited (Sea) reported total GAAP revenue growth of 29% year-on-year (YoY) to USD2.9b, which was a touch below consensus. E-commerce total gross merchandise value (GMV) growth of 27% YoY to USD19b was broadly in-line with consensus, while adjusted EBITDA loss per order in Southeast Asia and Taiwan (before headquarter (HQ) costs) was less than 1 cent during the quarter. While gaming quarterly active users (QAU) grew 1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 619.3m which suggests signs of stabilisation, bookings were soft at USD717m (vs USD1.2b in 2Q21). All-considered, group adjusted EBITDA loss of USD506m came in below the consensus of -USD550m. In our view, the key negative development was the suspension of the e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for 2022. While HQ costs have increased QoQ, the pace has slowed and the increase is related to increase in R&D staff and server hosting costs. Turning to games: while Free Fire has shown some early signs of active user stabilisation, management is not extrapolating this into future trends, given headwinds from inflation, reopening pressures and tough YoY comparisons. Management noted that they do have games in the pipeline that could be published later this year, but also cautioned that we are unlikely to see any immediate/significant impact like Free Fire given the need to focus on user engagement initially. Following adjustments (while keeping our existing ESG discount of 5%), my fair value (FV) moves down from USD88 to USD80. I would suggest selling it as more selling pressures will come as the Fed looks to be increasingly hawkish.DYODD@TigerStars 
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    • MaverickTiger·08-22MaverickTiger

      What does HengSeng index review mean to investors? Sensetime got chance?

      Investors in Hong Kong heard of the "quarterly review" of Hang Seng Index, for its quarterly reconstitution and rebalancing.On August 19th,$HSI(HSI)$ $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ $HSCEI(HSCEI)$ has published the Adjustment results for the first half of 2022, as follows:Hang Seng Index: This adjustment for $Baidu(BIDU)$,$CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$,$Chow Tai Fook Jewellery(01929)$,$HANSOH PHARMA(03692)$ weights 0.65%, 0.65%, 0.26% and 0.15% respectively; the number of constituents after adjustment has further increased from 69 to 73. Of course, according to the consultation results released by Hang Seng Index Company in March 2021, the number of constituent stocks of Hang Seng Index will increase to 80 before mid-2022, and finally fixed at 100, and the progress is still relatively lagged.Hang Seng China Enterprises Index: including $SENSETIME-W(00020)$ as a weight of0.41%, and the exclusion is at the same time$CPIC(02601)$ as a weight of 0.63%.Hang Seng TECH Index: This time, it was not included and excluded, and the number remained unchanged at 30.Therefore, the main changes are in Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.What should we pay attention to? First of all, The inflow and outflow of funds of ETFsMost of the ETFs tracking indexes are passive investments. As long as the indexes change, they need to follow unconditionally. At present, the ETF funds tracking the Hang Seng Index are about$20.71 billion The size of ETFs tracking the state-owned enterprise index is about$5.67 billion.If we take the average turnover in 180 days, which Baidu, China Shenhua, Chow Tai Fook and Hansen Pharmaceutical are 560 million, 500 million, 65 million and 52 million respectively. Therefore, according to the funds brought by their new weights,Passive inflows to these stocks needs 1.2 days, 2.1 days, 7.1 days and 3.9 days, respectively.The above index adjustment results will come into effect on Monday, September 5, 2022. In order to minimize the tracking error, passive funds will choose to adjust their positions on the trading day before the effective date, that is , September 2nd.It is expected that when the time comes, these stocks will be much larger than usual, especially in late trading.In addition, the weights of some constituent stocks will also change, such as:Hang Seng Index:$HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$Because it exceeds the upper limit of 8%, it needs to be reset to 8% (currently 8.68%), and passive capital outflow according to 180-day average turnover, It needs to flow out for about 1.2 days. By the same token,$CKH Holdings(00001)$,$ZHONGHUA GAS(08246)$And$MTR CORPORATION(00066)$Also due to the downward adjustment of weight, it is necessary toOutflow for 0.5 days.State-owned enterprise index: Since there are relatively few ETFs tracking the state-owned enterprise index, the maximum time required for passive capital inflow is the newly transferred Shang Tang, which is expected to bring in 23.25 million US dollars,The inflow time is 0.5 days; At the same time,$CPIC(02601)$Due to the transfer out, the existing weight of 0.63% will encounter capital outflow, which is expected to affect about 0.6 days, but the price of AH shares is relatively stable.Hang Seng Technology:The circulation coefficient of Shang Tang was adjusted, so the weight included in the index increased from 0.15% to 1.76%,It is expected to bring a passive capital inflow of 170 million US dollarsAccording to the average turnover of 180 daysThe required time is about 3.9 days. In addition, the weights of Xiaomi and JD.COM will be reset from 8.35% and 8.11% to 8%, which is expected to bring passive capital outflows of US $11.92 million and US $37.93 million respectively, with an impact time of 0.3 days.To sum up, SENSETIME-W, Chow Tai Fook, Hansen Pharmaceutical and Baidu will get some active funds to increase their positions in the next few trading days, and may usher in the peak of arbitrage trading on September 2.
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    • Tradehub·08-22Tradehub
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ it is near to my target price of $65, will buy some once it is there. And next target price is at $40, it should be there when the ression hits.
      318Comment
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    • QArmieeQ·08-21QArmieeQ
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ Bearish Its an open secrets their earnings report will be bad. The only good thing is its e finance digital banking section. I am predici, the stock price will not go up even to 80 until end of the year. Will be long thorny journey.
      196Comment
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    • Optionspuppy·08-21Optionspuppy

      Sea limited can rise ? What does the other reports say

      YaThe 31 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Sea Ltd have a median target of 110.00, with a high estimate of 170.00 and a low estimate of 60.00. The median estimate represents a +62.22% increase from the last price of 67.81.@SPOT_ON @TigerEvents @TigerStars $U.S. Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF(SEA)$ 
      99523
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      Sea limited can rise ? What does the other reports say
    • Iannn·08-20Iannn
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ View on Sea Ltd(SE)BullishBearish
      39Comment
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    • StockRookie·08-20StockRookie
      Target price 80
      11Comment
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    • StickyRice·08-20StickyRice
      Sea Limited: Riding This WaveSea Limited (NYSE:SE) $Sea Ltd(SE)$  recently reported a challenging Q2 with revenue and adjusted EBITDA coming in below expectations given the ongoing macro pressures on their business.The biggest disappointment during the quarter was the company suspending guidance for their E-Commerce segment in addition to the company reported ongoing declines in their Digital Entertainment quarterly active users and quarterly paying users.To no surprise, the company's stock was down over 10% on disappointing earnings and guidance suspension, which brings the year to date pulldown to 65%.Yes, the macro environment remain very challenged and there is still a lot of uncertainty that may take several quarters or months to play out.Currently, Sea trades at 3.5x forward revenue, which is pretty similar to the recent range of 3-4x forward revenue. The combination of challenging macro, revenue deceleration, and ongoing adjusted EBITDA losses makes it difficult to see multiple expansion in the near-term.However, long-term investors should remain confident in the outlook and could view this recent pullback as a buying opportunity.While estimates for 2022 and 2023 revenue likely come down over the next few weeks given the macro uncertainties, valuation has pretty much stalled at 3-4x forward revenue. The stock currently trades around 3.5x forward revenue and it seems possible that valuations remains stuck in this recent trading range until the company executes on their improved efficiency strategy.By no means is 3-4x forward revenue an expensive multiple to pay, the combination of decelerating revenue, a challenging and uncertain macro environment, and ongoing adjusted EBITDA losses makes it challenging to justify a higher multiple.Longer-term investors are likely to remain rewarded if they hold onto their position throughout this volatility, but indeed there is likely to be ongoing volatility over the coming months and quarters.
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    • MrWeiWei·08-20MrWeiWei
    • logostauros·08-20logostauros
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ long term wise after all the competition dies down i think SEA is a strong competitor in this space 
      90Comment
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    • SR050321·08-20SR050321
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ due to disappointing results, infaltion has caused people to spend less and economy grow slower. Target price $40I maybe wrong, just my personal target.
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    • JRas·08-19JRas
      SEA share will continue to drop further if the fed toincrease rates again 
      272
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    • LHC0511·08-19LHC0511
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ my target is is below is USD 60
      134Comment
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    • JacksNiffler·08-18JacksNiffler

      How to trade SEA on a reasonable valuation?

      Let's see how much does a share of SE valued.$Sea Ltd(SE)$ has released Q2 earnigns the other day, resulted in an unexpected 14% plunge. After all, most investors have lowered their expectations for the growth companies in this earnings season. Except for the game business, whose decline trend is slightly faster due to the recovery of offline activities, its e-commerce and payment businesses are progressing smoothly in both ASEAN+ and Brazil.Therefore, investors who sold out in the past two days, must be impatient. With more trading volatilities, Sea's stock price seems up and down frequently.Some investors are worrying about falling below the previous low.I think it will be supported by the implied value. After Q2, it is necessary to make a simple valuation.Sea's three main businesses: Garena, e-Shopee and SeaMoney, which are in different industry cycles and have great business differences, so the applicable valuation methods are different.GarenaThe profit of the game business brought cash flow to Sea. It is relatively appropriate to use profit multiples for valuation. Whether $TENCENT(00700)$ in Hong Kong stocks or $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$ in US stocks are good benchmarks, usually, the peers EBITDA's multiples is more than 15x. Considering the changes in the macro environment, the explosive games that have been followed up after FreeFire have not yet appeared, Valuing the game part with a conservative EBITDA of 8 times in 2023should be appropriate.ShopeeE-commerce business was also suitable for profit multiples, but Shopee is still unprofitable in its growth period, so there are only two methods. 1. Either take the profit expectation in 2025 and discount it back to 2022; 2. Or take the multiple of revenues as a reference. The biggest problem of the former is that it is too forward-looking, and there may be earth-shaking changes in profit structure in three years, while the problem of the latter is that the error is too large.Therefore, we might as well use gross profit multiples for valuation. Industry benchmarking like $Amazon.com(AMZN)$$Alibaba(BABA)$$JD.com(JD)$ or $eBay(EBAY)$​ $Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$ ​$MercadoLibre(MELI)$. The overall average gross profit multiple in 2023 is 6.0 times, so this is the benchmark.SeaMoneyThe growth of the financial sector is very high, with a triple-digit growth rate in 2022, and it is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 50% in 2023. In addition to the payment field,$Visa(V)$And$MasterCard(MA)$The income multiple of is very high, reaching more than 15 times, and the others like$American Express(AXP)$$Block(SQ)$$Discovery Finance (DFS)$, are between 3-6 times EV/Sales.On this basis, considering the three Case of "bull", "Normal" and "bear", and make the valuation of SE per share is US $125, US $93 and US $68 respectivelyAlthough this is completely unable to match the previous stock price of 300 + US dollars, it is relatively reasonable in the present situation. Moreover, in case of explosive growth in one of the businesses, such as another phenomenal game, its valuation can completely break through the bottleneck.This valuation means that even under bear conditions, each SE share can be worth at $68.From the perspective of the macro environment, inflation is expected to peakt, and interest rate are expected to decline in the future, which is beneficial to technology stocks; On the other hand, after this year's fluctuations, there are not many real growth stocks left, and if venture capital comes back, there are not many high-quality choices.The high volatility of SE makes the IV of options very high for a long time, so it provides quite good conditions for the sellers of options.If you don't hold SE shares, a direct Sell Naked Put is efficient. The sell put can also be extented continuously (replace Sell Put with a longer term with the near-expiration), and even sell parity or in-price options can be used to open positions.If you are holding SE shares at this time, it is also a good choice to choose Sell Covered Call (but better at bull days). It is recommended to call outside the price within one month and the price by about 20%.If you don't hold SE shares at this time, but want to be a long-term bull. You can consider using Buy Call Spread, that is, buying a Call within the price and selling a Call outside the price. For example, buy a September 70 Call in and sell a 90 Call at the same time.All in all, only when you know enough about the implied value of the company, can you have a better trading on that.Happy Trading!
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      How to trade SEA on a reasonable valuation?
    • MaverickTiger·08-22MaverickTiger

      What does HengSeng index review mean to investors? Sensetime got chance?

      Investors in Hong Kong heard of the "quarterly review" of Hang Seng Index, for its quarterly reconstitution and rebalancing.On August 19th,$HSI(HSI)$ $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ $HSCEI(HSCEI)$ has published the Adjustment results for the first half of 2022, as follows:Hang Seng Index: This adjustment for $Baidu(BIDU)$,$CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$,$Chow Tai Fook Jewellery(01929)$,$HANSOH PHARMA(03692)$ weights 0.65%, 0.65%, 0.26% and 0.15% respectively; the number of constituents after adjustment has further increased from 69 to 73. Of course, according to the consultation results released by Hang Seng Index Company in March 2021, the number of constituent stocks of Hang Seng Index will increase to 80 before mid-2022, and finally fixed at 100, and the progress is still relatively lagged.Hang Seng China Enterprises Index: including $SENSETIME-W(00020)$ as a weight of0.41%, and the exclusion is at the same time$CPIC(02601)$ as a weight of 0.63%.Hang Seng TECH Index: This time, it was not included and excluded, and the number remained unchanged at 30.Therefore, the main changes are in Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index.What should we pay attention to? First of all, The inflow and outflow of funds of ETFsMost of the ETFs tracking indexes are passive investments. As long as the indexes change, they need to follow unconditionally. At present, the ETF funds tracking the Hang Seng Index are about$20.71 billion The size of ETFs tracking the state-owned enterprise index is about$5.67 billion.If we take the average turnover in 180 days, which Baidu, China Shenhua, Chow Tai Fook and Hansen Pharmaceutical are 560 million, 500 million, 65 million and 52 million respectively. Therefore, according to the funds brought by their new weights,Passive inflows to these stocks needs 1.2 days, 2.1 days, 7.1 days and 3.9 days, respectively.The above index adjustment results will come into effect on Monday, September 5, 2022. In order to minimize the tracking error, passive funds will choose to adjust their positions on the trading day before the effective date, that is , September 2nd.It is expected that when the time comes, these stocks will be much larger than usual, especially in late trading.In addition, the weights of some constituent stocks will also change, such as:Hang Seng Index:$HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$Because it exceeds the upper limit of 8%, it needs to be reset to 8% (currently 8.68%), and passive capital outflow according to 180-day average turnover, It needs to flow out for about 1.2 days. By the same token,$CKH Holdings(00001)$,$ZHONGHUA GAS(08246)$And$MTR CORPORATION(00066)$Also due to the downward adjustment of weight, it is necessary toOutflow for 0.5 days.State-owned enterprise index: Since there are relatively few ETFs tracking the state-owned enterprise index, the maximum time required for passive capital inflow is the newly transferred Shang Tang, which is expected to bring in 23.25 million US dollars,The inflow time is 0.5 days; At the same time,$CPIC(02601)$Due to the transfer out, the existing weight of 0.63% will encounter capital outflow, which is expected to affect about 0.6 days, but the price of AH shares is relatively stable.Hang Seng Technology:The circulation coefficient of Shang Tang was adjusted, so the weight included in the index increased from 0.15% to 1.76%,It is expected to bring a passive capital inflow of 170 million US dollarsAccording to the average turnover of 180 daysThe required time is about 3.9 days. In addition, the weights of Xiaomi and JD.COM will be reset from 8.35% and 8.11% to 8%, which is expected to bring passive capital outflows of US $11.92 million and US $37.93 million respectively, with an impact time of 0.3 days.To sum up, SENSETIME-W, Chow Tai Fook, Hansen Pharmaceutical and Baidu will get some active funds to increase their positions in the next few trading days, and may usher in the peak of arbitrage trading on September 2.
      14.43K652
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      What does HengSeng index review mean to investors? Sensetime got chance?
    • Alvin 邹咏翰·08-18Alvin 邹咏翰

      Sea vs Tencent + Alibaba + Grab

      Big tech companies have multiple businesses and they often fight among each other.Given that Sea and Tencent just released their results, I want to compare how they have fared and get an overall sense of the market situation.First, we can compare Sea and Tencent in terms of games.Gaming contributed 31% of Sea's revenue in 2Q2022 while it is 53% of Tencent's.Sea has seen declining gaming revenue since 3Q2021. The latest quarter saw gaming revenue declined by 39% compared to the same quarter last year.Sea reasoned it is the post-Covid effect where demand for games dropped after the economy opened up.In contrast, Tencent's gaming revenue didn't decline. It was just flat. Maybe one can argue that China is having lockdowns that helped. Claiming Garena Free Fire is banned in India as an issue is not totally valid as Tencent's games such as Mobile Legends and PUBG face the same issue.Gaming is the only profitable business segment for Sea and the declining revenue means less profits could be used to defray losses in Shopee and SeaMoney. Hence, this is one reason for their deepened loss in the latest quarter.Next we compare Shopee against Lazada. These two are vying for the Southeast Asia e-commerce market.Shopee did well by growing 51% year-on-year. Lazada only did 10% growth. Moreover Shopee is already having the biggest share in Southeast Asia. Alibaba is mainly strong in China's e-commerce which is pretty much protected from foreign competition. The troubles are often internal - lockdowns, regulations and domestic competition.Both Sea and Grab (with Singtel) have digital banking licenses in Singapore. Grab will be announcing their results on 25 Aug so we can't really do an apple-to-apple comparison with Sea Money now.Both have great distribution channels for their fintech adoption. Sea has Shopee users to use the wallet. Grab has its ride hailing passengers and drivers to tap upon. Not to forget Singtel's customers too.However the numbers showed that Sea has the upper-hand. Sea's digital financial services segment's revenue was $279m in 2Q while Grab's financial services was a mere $11m in 1Q.In terms of GMV - Grab's $1.4b (1Q) is also lower Sea's $5.7b (2Q). The margins are a lot worse for Grab too.In a nutshell, Sea is weaker than Tencent when it comes to gaming. Shopee is stronger than Lazada but the fight is still ongoing. Sea is stronger than Grab when it comes to digital payments.$Sea Ltd(SE)$ $TENCENT(00700)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ 
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      Sea vs Tencent + Alibaba + Grab
    • JacksNiffler·08-18JacksNiffler

      How to trade SEA on a reasonable valuation?

      Let's see how much does a share of SE valued.$Sea Ltd(SE)$ has released Q2 earnigns the other day, resulted in an unexpected 14% plunge. After all, most investors have lowered their expectations for the growth companies in this earnings season. Except for the game business, whose decline trend is slightly faster due to the recovery of offline activities, its e-commerce and payment businesses are progressing smoothly in both ASEAN+ and Brazil.Therefore, investors who sold out in the past two days, must be impatient. With more trading volatilities, Sea's stock price seems up and down frequently.Some investors are worrying about falling below the previous low.I think it will be supported by the implied value. After Q2, it is necessary to make a simple valuation.Sea's three main businesses: Garena, e-Shopee and SeaMoney, which are in different industry cycles and have great business differences, so the applicable valuation methods are different.GarenaThe profit of the game business brought cash flow to Sea. It is relatively appropriate to use profit multiples for valuation. Whether $TENCENT(00700)$ in Hong Kong stocks or $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$ in US stocks are good benchmarks, usually, the peers EBITDA's multiples is more than 15x. Considering the changes in the macro environment, the explosive games that have been followed up after FreeFire have not yet appeared, Valuing the game part with a conservative EBITDA of 8 times in 2023should be appropriate.ShopeeE-commerce business was also suitable for profit multiples, but Shopee is still unprofitable in its growth period, so there are only two methods. 1. Either take the profit expectation in 2025 and discount it back to 2022; 2. Or take the multiple of revenues as a reference. The biggest problem of the former is that it is too forward-looking, and there may be earth-shaking changes in profit structure in three years, while the problem of the latter is that the error is too large.Therefore, we might as well use gross profit multiples for valuation. Industry benchmarking like $Amazon.com(AMZN)$$Alibaba(BABA)$$JD.com(JD)$ or $eBay(EBAY)$​ $Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$ ​$MercadoLibre(MELI)$. The overall average gross profit multiple in 2023 is 6.0 times, so this is the benchmark.SeaMoneyThe growth of the financial sector is very high, with a triple-digit growth rate in 2022, and it is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 50% in 2023. In addition to the payment field,$Visa(V)$And$MasterCard(MA)$The income multiple of is very high, reaching more than 15 times, and the others like$American Express(AXP)$$Block(SQ)$$Discovery Finance (DFS)$, are between 3-6 times EV/Sales.On this basis, considering the three Case of "bull", "Normal" and "bear", and make the valuation of SE per share is US $125, US $93 and US $68 respectivelyAlthough this is completely unable to match the previous stock price of 300 + US dollars, it is relatively reasonable in the present situation. Moreover, in case of explosive growth in one of the businesses, such as another phenomenal game, its valuation can completely break through the bottleneck.This valuation means that even under bear conditions, each SE share can be worth at $68.From the perspective of the macro environment, inflation is expected to peakt, and interest rate are expected to decline in the future, which is beneficial to technology stocks; On the other hand, after this year's fluctuations, there are not many real growth stocks left, and if venture capital comes back, there are not many high-quality choices.The high volatility of SE makes the IV of options very high for a long time, so it provides quite good conditions for the sellers of options.If you don't hold SE shares, a direct Sell Naked Put is efficient. The sell put can also be extented continuously (replace Sell Put with a longer term with the near-expiration), and even sell parity or in-price options can be used to open positions.If you are holding SE shares at this time, it is also a good choice to choose Sell Covered Call (but better at bull days). It is recommended to call outside the price within one month and the price by about 20%.If you don't hold SE shares at this time, but want to be a long-term bull. You can consider using Buy Call Spread, that is, buying a Call within the price and selling a Call outside the price. For example, buy a September 70 Call in and sell a 90 Call at the same time.All in all, only when you know enough about the implied value of the company, can you have a better trading on that.Happy Trading!
      5.44K67
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      How to trade SEA on a reasonable valuation?
    • MaverickTiger·08-18MaverickTiger

      What's the key differences between Target and Walmart?

      $Target(TGT)$ fell 3.29% in premarket trading on Wednesday and ended up with -2.69% the whole day, after a 4.57% gain following its peer$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ on Tuesday.Apparently, situation's got some differences.The big retailer's operating margin fell to 1.2%, which reflected gross margin pressure from actions to reduce excess inventory as well as higher freight and transportation costs.Besides, gross margin was also pressured by increased compensation and headcount in distribution centers, the costs of managing excess inventory, and higher per-unit last-mile shipping costs.One day earlier, Walmart just improve inventory levels in the U.S., along with a heavier mix of sales in grocery put pressure on profit margin for Q2 and our outlook for the year.It seems like the operation capability being the most important point.For WMT, Comparable sales rose 6.5% in Q2 to top the consensus estimate for a 6.2% increase. Two years same store sales as high as 12.78%, transactions were up 1.0% and average ticket rose 5.5%. Comparable sales rose 9.5% at Sam's Club locations in the U.S. off transaction growth of 9.8%.For TGT, Comparable sales rose only 2.6% during the quarter to fall short of the consensus expectation for a rise of 2.8%. Two year same store sales lowered to 11.73% Comparable sales at stores were up 1.3% during the quarter, while digital comparable sales rose 9.0%.Let's compare.Target didn't sell well.Another vital factor, is estimate management.Like we said yesterday, Walmart is following a bad example, but useful.Walmart has just issued a profit warning last month due to concerns over consumer spending, which might cause a plunge at that time (together with the whole sector), but indeed lowered the market estimate.When the result comes, it seems like a bad earning still beat the estimate, with a little bit lift in guidance, its stock price could easily rally. Maybe Targer should do the same.Also, it creates the opportunity of arbitrage, by buying the"estimate management" stock before earnings, and sold it when released.But Target didn't get this, it has to bearing the loss on both performance and stock price.How interesting!
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      What's the key differences between Target and Walmart?
    • MaverickTiger·08-17MaverickTiger

      Is Tencent Q2 earning a good sign to the price?

      $TENCENT(00700)$ released the second quarter report at the date of August 17. One day earlier, the media reported that "Tencent intends to sell off its holdings on $Meituan(03690)$, bringing chaos in trading.It is definitely not Tencent's leak, silence would be its most reasonable choice. But the media don't care, they need gossips, some of which created some "investment opportunities" to banks.After all, the pricing power of Hong Kong stock market is still in investors with US dollars. Tencent has tried hard to buy back in the past quarter, but still can't resist the selling pressure of "indefinite reduction" of major shareholder.$Naspers Ltd.(NPSNY)$ From the day it decided to sell in the secondary market, Tencent's nightmare started.Therefore, the quality of Q2 financial report is hardly an important factor affecting Tencent's stock price trend.Of course, Q2 performance will not be wonderful. It is the first single quarter in which Tencent has declined since its IPO. However, the market also expected this. Apart from the fact that revenue is an ironclad decline, it is difficult for us to judge whether Q2's performance brings "good news" or "bad news".Revenue was 134 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the market expected consensus of 135.6 billion yuan, which was negative;Gross profit was 57.9 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, slightly better than the market consensus of 55.9 billion yuan, mixed;The operating profit was 30.1 billion yuan, down 43% year-on-year, while the adjusted operating profit was 36.7 billion yuan, slightly better than the market consensus of 33.8 billion yuan, mixed;EBITDA was 38.6 billion yuan, down 14% year-on-year, while the adjusted EBITDA was 44.7 billion yuan, slightly better than the market consensus of 42.1 billion yuan, mixed;The net profit was 18.6 billion yuan, down 56% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 28.1 billion yuan, slightly better than the market consensus of 24.4 billion yuan.In principle, the decline in performance is bad news, and the market has already expected it, even reflected in the price.However, the overall market consensus is more pessimistic than the actuals, which leads to Tencent's profit index being a little more surprising than expected.It should be noted that market expectations are generally a consensus data. For example, Bloomberg uses the average of expected values given by all analysts. Among them, because some analysts are not updated in time (Could be in May), they still keep the previous high expected value, which is equivalent to the fact that the market expected consensus is still on the high side. In this case,Tencent's profit index can still exceed expectations, which is actually better than the pessimistic expectations of analysts who "closely follow Tencent".Thus, the "adjustment" is necessary and has impact of some non-main items outside IFRS accounting standards, mainly non-cash items such as employee share compensation, investment company income (and fair value changes), amortization, impairment, etc. This is partly due to the great fluctuation every quarter, so if adjusted, the profit index will be more in line with Tencent's actual operation.On whole, Tencent Q2's financial report is "generally declining", but "slightly exceeding expectations". This is not good news for stock prices. A thousand investors may have a thousand ways to read it.In terms of performance alone, the three business segments of value-added services (including games and videos), advertising and financial technology (including payment and cloud) are very alarming but remarkable.Revenue from games declined slightly, among which "王者荣耀" and "和平精英" both declined, while "英雄联盟手游" and "金铲铲之战" were on the rise and contributed to the growth. It is worth mentioning that, Many people think that "the pause of game version" is bad for Tencent, but in fact it is also good news.This is mainly because it is a huge negative for companies that need to replace game IP frequently, while Tencent's several mobile games have already experienced the test, but no good new games are a reverse stimulus to them.Overseas games declined, $Sea Ltd(SE)$ 's Q2 report also mentioned the same thing. The main influencing factor was the recovery of offline activities in some regions. The exchange rate has little impact on Tencent's overseas games.Judging from Tencent's deferred revenue, Q1 has experienced a year-on-year decline (-4%),Q2 fell by-8%Therefore, the next quarter is still not optimistic.In terms of social networks, the live broadcast service of video numbers has increasingly become a bright spot, and many overseas live broadcasts have exploded the whole network. Although there is still a certain distance from "efficient realization", as long as the whole WeChat ecosystem continues to cooperate, the content realization ability will continue to increase in the future. Although there is no bright spot in video, Tencent Music has the help of Jay Chou.Revenue from online advertising fell by 18% year-on-year, which was hit hard in April and May, and social advertising fell by 17%, mainly due to weak demand.The advertising focus in the next few quarters is still the WeChat ecosystem.The decrease of advertising revenue with higher profit margin will directly affect Tencent's overall profit margin, which is why the adjusted operating profit decreased by 14% when Q2's revenue decreased by 3%.Similarly, the income from financial technology was also affected by offline payment, which slowed down year on year and recovered after June. Tencent did not mention the growth rate of cloud business this time, but only introduced the loss reduction project. According to the 1% year-on-year growth rate of the whole sector, the cloud business performed poorly this quarter.Of course,In the case of lower revenue, Tencent mainly focuses on reducing costs and expensesT. his is obviously a very positive signal.Gross profit fell 7.7% year-on-year, but still exceeded market consensus, mainly because the market expected the advertising business to decline even more. What is more unexpected is that the gross profit of financial technology services still increased by 4.9% year-on-year.On the expense side, marketing spending fell 21%, apparently more than its own advertising business. Tencent's efforts in "throttling" are obvious to all.The increase in administrative expenses has also dropped from 20-40% in previous quarters to 16%.On the one hand, there is still the impact of layoffs, on the other hand, the compensation of employees in overseas companies (including stock compensation). It is expected that the decline will be more obvious in the next few quarters.On the whole, Tencent's profit level is declining, but it is well controlled, so as not to stall to another market accident. At present, due to the decline in profits, the overall valuation level is also returning.Although Tencent can buy back again after the earnings, there are still two mountains, one is the reduction of major shareholders, and the other is the influence of stocks in China as a whole. Of course, once one of them shows a slowing trend, the money will be back soon.As for investors who want to hedging or buy a dip, it is a more effective choice to hedge with options.
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      Is Tencent Q2 earning a good sign to the price?
    • Big Cat·08-17Big Cat
      "$Sea Ltd(SE)$ reported second-quarter FY22 revenue growth of 29% year-on-year to $2.94 billion, missing the consensus of $2.97 billion. Its stock fell nearly 13% in early market trading on Tuesday.Digital Entertainment revenue decreased -12.1% Y/Y to $900.26 million, and bookings were $0.72 billion versus $1.20 billion a year ago. The segment adjusted EBITDA was $333.6 million, compared to $740.9 million a year ago. Quarterly active users were 619.3 million, compared to 725.2 million a year ago. [Surprised] Average bookings per user were $1.2 versus $1.6 a year ago. E-commerce and other services revenue increased 75.6% Y/Y to $1.76 billion. Adjusted EBITDA loss for Shopee overall was -$648.1 million versus -$579.8 million a year back. [Surprised] Marketplace revenue grew 61.9% Y/Y, and product revenue rose 13.6% Y/Y. Gross orders rose 41.6% Y/Y. Gross merchandise value increased 27.2% Y/Y. Digital Financial Services revenue grew 214.4% Y/Y to $279 million. The mobile wallet total payment volume rose 35.7% Y/Y to $5.7 billion. Adjusted EPS loss of -$1.03 beat the consensus loss of -$1.21. Sea Ltd held $7.8 billion in cash and equivalents. Sea suspended e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for the full year 2022 amid macro uncertainties. [Duh] " Overall does not look that good [Thinking] . DYODD before investing [OK] 
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    • Lionel8383·08-18Lionel8383

      Grabbing Liquidity?

      Grab $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ has a recent good run lately, reaching a psychological resistance of $4.00 and seems to be overbought from several indicators.Sea Ltd $Sea Ltd(SE)$ recent disappointing results could be a bearish sign for Grab. Investors will want to look at Grab's upcoming segment revenues for Mobility, Delivery and e-Wallet segments for clues on the current state of the business. A new officeGrab recently officially launched their new 9-storey headquarters in Singapore. It will house 3000 employees and a R&D centre. It certainlylooks as fanciful as any tech startup's office, but given the current challenging times, was ittoo exuberant?The charts are showing signs of a trapGrab Daily ChartFrom the daily chart, the stochastic and williams %R indicates that the stock has been overbought lately. There are signs of a bull trap to grab liquidity in the making. The first sign of support would likely be at $3.00, at the 100 moving average. The 50 day moving average is starting to cross above the 100 day moving average, that's the only bullish sign currently. Long term investors who believe in Grab mightwant to wait for a pull back to a support level before clicking the buy button.
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    • pekss·08-17pekss

      A SEA of Red

      This is a follow-up from my post yesterday on my expectations on $Sea Ltd(SE)$ 's earnings before its second-quarter earnings announcement.Unfortunately, the company has under-performed even the already low bar set by analysts and its share price sank almost 14% as a punishment by the unforgiving market.This is not unexpected, as the download data from Google Play and App Store appeared to show that SEA’s gaming and e-commerce popularities have further deteriorated from the first quarter.In fact, the company had expected in March that Garena would post $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion in bookings in 2022, set to be its first decline ever.My key takeaways from the earnings report are as follows:· Its digital entertainment unit Garena continues to be the breadwinner and saving grace for the company, though revenue from the gaming business fell to $900.3 million in the last quarter, only slightly ahead of estimates for $827.6 million, as its hit mobile game Free Fire matures. It seems to me that Garena has been experiencing strong headwinds, as the reopening of global economies and lifting of border restrictions for travels competed for the attention of its users.· Quarterly active users of Garena were down 15% year over year, while the number of paying users dropped even more drastically by 39%.· While its e-commerce unit Shopee and digital financial services arm Sea Money continue to grow fast, they remain highly unprofitable, as SEA appears to prioritize market expansion over profitability and continues to invest heavily to gain market share globally at the expense of profits. As a result, Garena has to continue to subsidize the expansion costs of Shopee and Sea Money.· Second-quarter revenue from Shopee, gained 51% to about $1.7 billion versus forecast of $1.9 billion, while that from Sea Money rose to $279 million.· Total gross profits last quarter were $1.1 billion, down from $1.2 billion last quarter.· However, SEA suffered a net loss of $931.2 million that has not only widened but more than doubled from $433.7 million in the prior-year quarter.· The last straw was its removal of full-year revenue guidance for its e-commerce business, when it had previously guided 71.8% growth, citing an ever-changing macro environment. That does not instill any confidence in investors.I expect much more strong headwinds ahead for SEA with increasing regulatory tightening on gaming and rising cut-throat competitions in e-commerce. With expectation by Monetary Authority of Singapore on SEA to launch its local digital bank this year after awarding digital full banking license to SEA in a move to liberalize the local financial industry, SEA is anticipated to incur more significant start-up costs and faces intense competitions from the local banking incumbents the likes of DBS, OCBC and UOB, as well as other digital banks including the formidable Grab-Singtel consortium.I hold a small stake in SEA, and regret not taking money off the table when its share price more than doubled, as I now sit on paper loss. While time in the market is more important than timing the market, I believe that SEA has to reinvent itself and contain its costs to stay relevant and formidable. Garena has to develop and come up with new mobile hit games the likes of Free Fire to retain existing users and attract new users. SEA needs to also focus on reducing costs by slowing its expansion and turn its attention to gaining profitability by differentiating itself against increasing competition from other e-commerce and digital financial service providers.Hopefully, SEA will be able to reassure the market by focusing on and demonstrating profitability, so that I can be rewarded for staying through thick and thin with the company for the long-haul.@TigerEvents @TigerStars @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger @CaptainTiger 
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      A SEA of Red
    • SirBahamut·08-17SirBahamut

      Sea Ltd: Disappointing 2Q22 result

      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ BearishSea Ltd (SE) reported its result last night, rather disappointing. Revenue missed Wallstreet’s expectation, and 2Q22 adjusted EBITDA was -USD$506m and net loss was -USD$570m. Pressure on the gaming division continues, while higher corporate HQ cost continue to weigh down the ecommerce business segment. To make things worse, SE has suspended its ecommerce guidance of $8.5-9.1bn due to macroeconomic uncertainties, which give hints that the near-term GMV could remain weak.My honest personal opinion is that SE’s cash burn this quarter did not result in any meaningful improvement in profitability this quarter, despite Management’s latest emphasis on the profitability and efficiency. SE’s net cash continue to deplete and may further weaken without material improvement in profitability. Based on the net cash trend that I observed from their IR deck, SE may likely have to do another equity fund raising to support its ambition to be the market leadership in ecommerce and new Fintech ventures. Potential investors should keep an eye on its cashflow and balance sheetI continue to like SE’s management team, their business model and its upside potential from potential profitability improvement for Shopee and SeaMoney, but due to the near-term weaker macroeconomics environment I would stay at the sideline and wait for better opportunities.Please note this is my personal opinion and does not constitute as any financial advise.@CaptainTiger @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion 
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      Sea Ltd: Disappointing 2Q22 result
    • StickyRice·08-20StickyRice
      Sea Limited: Riding This WaveSea Limited (NYSE:SE) $Sea Ltd(SE)$  recently reported a challenging Q2 with revenue and adjusted EBITDA coming in below expectations given the ongoing macro pressures on their business.The biggest disappointment during the quarter was the company suspending guidance for their E-Commerce segment in addition to the company reported ongoing declines in their Digital Entertainment quarterly active users and quarterly paying users.To no surprise, the company's stock was down over 10% on disappointing earnings and guidance suspension, which brings the year to date pulldown to 65%.Yes, the macro environment remain very challenged and there is still a lot of uncertainty that may take several quarters or months to play out.Currently, Sea trades at 3.5x forward revenue, which is pretty similar to the recent range of 3-4x forward revenue. The combination of challenging macro, revenue deceleration, and ongoing adjusted EBITDA losses makes it difficult to see multiple expansion in the near-term.However, long-term investors should remain confident in the outlook and could view this recent pullback as a buying opportunity.While estimates for 2022 and 2023 revenue likely come down over the next few weeks given the macro uncertainties, valuation has pretty much stalled at 3-4x forward revenue. The stock currently trades around 3.5x forward revenue and it seems possible that valuations remains stuck in this recent trading range until the company executes on their improved efficiency strategy.By no means is 3-4x forward revenue an expensive multiple to pay, the combination of decelerating revenue, a challenging and uncertain macro environment, and ongoing adjusted EBITDA losses makes it challenging to justify a higher multiple.Longer-term investors are likely to remain rewarded if they hold onto their position throughout this volatility, but indeed there is likely to be ongoing volatility over the coming months and quarters.
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    • pekss·08-17pekss
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ has to turn its attention from expansion to profitability. After SEA removed its guidance for revenue growth of its e-commerce arm Shopee, sinking investor confidence may lead its share price to retest its June lows below $70.Once our national pride and the largest company by market capitalisation listed on our local bourse at the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, when its digital gaming and e-commerce attracted numerous users stuck at home and expanded rapidly, its lead position on SGX has since been surpassed, with its custome base shrinking amidst tightening macro environment and increasing competition.The company needs to continue to innovate and stay relevant post COVID to retain customers and attract new users on its platforms, while at the same time contains its surging costs by avoiding over-expanding its footprint globally and focussing on gaining profitability.Hopefully, the company is able to reinvent itself and successfully turn around in the longrun.@TigerEvents @TigerStars @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger @CaptainTiger 
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    • Optionspuppy·08-21Optionspuppy

      Sea limited can rise ? What does the other reports say

      YaThe 31 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Sea Ltd have a median target of 110.00, with a high estimate of 170.00 and a low estimate of 60.00. The median estimate represents a +62.22% increase from the last price of 67.81.@SPOT_ON @TigerEvents @TigerStars $U.S. Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF(SEA)$ 
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      Sea limited can rise ? What does the other reports say
    • ngph·08-17ngph
      $TENCENT(00700)$ had divested its stake in $Sea Ltd(SE)$ and $JD.com(JD)$ , and is planning to divest its shares holding in Meituan, reportedly to appease local regulators continuing to clamp down on the Chinese tech sector.Meituan has been facing its own anti-competition clampdown by the government, the liquidation of its shares by its largest shareholder Tencent is bound to add oil to the fire.Should there be a resulting fire-sale on Meituan, it may present an opportunity for investors to bottom fish some shares on the cheap.@TigerEvents @TigerStars @TigerWire 
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    • Bunifa Latif·08-23Bunifa Latif
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ Sea you?Sea Limited (Sea) reported total GAAP revenue growth of 29% year-on-year (YoY) to USD2.9b, which was a touch below consensus. E-commerce total gross merchandise value (GMV) growth of 27% YoY to USD19b was broadly in-line with consensus, while adjusted EBITDA loss per order in Southeast Asia and Taiwan (before headquarter (HQ) costs) was less than 1 cent during the quarter. While gaming quarterly active users (QAU) grew 1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 619.3m which suggests signs of stabilisation, bookings were soft at USD717m (vs USD1.2b in 2Q21). All-considered, group adjusted EBITDA loss of USD506m came in below the consensus of -USD550m. In our view, the key negative development was the suspension of the e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for 2022. While HQ costs have increased QoQ, the pace has slowed and the increase is related to increase in R&D staff and server hosting costs. Turning to games: while Free Fire has shown some early signs of active user stabilisation, management is not extrapolating this into future trends, given headwinds from inflation, reopening pressures and tough YoY comparisons. Management noted that they do have games in the pipeline that could be published later this year, but also cautioned that we are unlikely to see any immediate/significant impact like Free Fire given the need to focus on user engagement initially. Following adjustments (while keeping our existing ESG discount of 5%), my fair value (FV) moves down from USD88 to USD80. I would suggest selling it as more selling pressures will come as the Fed looks to be increasingly hawkish.DYODD@TigerStars 
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    • StickyRice·08-17StickyRice
      Sea Limited drops as mixed Q2 results, suspended guidance weighs on shares Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) $Sea Ltd(SE)$ dropped on Tuesday after the Singapore-based technology company reported mixed second-quarter results and suspended revenue guidance for its e-commerce segment, noting the "increasing macro uncertainties."For the period ending June 30, Sea Limited (SE) lost an adjusted $1.03 per share on $2.94B in revenue, up 28.9% year-over-year. Analysts were expecting an adjusted loss of $1.06 per share on $2.88B in revenue.The company said e-commerce revenue rose 51.4% year-over-year during the quarter to $1.7B, while gross orders totaled 2B, an increase of 41.6% year-over-year.Sea Limited (SE) said adjusted EBITDA for its e-commerce unit, Shopee, was negative $648.1M, compared to negative $579.8M in the year-ago period, but adjusted EBITDA loss per order improved by 21%.Sea Limited (SE) added that Shopee continued to rank first in Indonesia and Taiwan by monthly active users and it continued its strong growth in Brazil with GAAP revenue rising 270% year-over-year.However, with the global economy increasingly weakening due to rising interest rates, slowing consumer activity and geopolitical uncertainties, Sea Limited (SE) said it would "further focus on efficiency and optimization for the long-term strength and profitability of the e-commerce business.""Given this strategic shift, we will be suspending e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for the full year 2022," the company said in a statement. "We believe such efforts will further strengthen our ability to better capture the long-term growth opportunities in our markets, which we remain highly positive about."On Monday, it was disclosed that hedge fund Bridgewater Associates had bought 459K shares of Sea Limited (SE) during the second quarter.
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    • fxaw·08-17fxaw
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ ... I don't have any position now. Cut loss a bit when it was still around 130. I'll start to buy if it drop below $70 again. The reason is simple, though it is still loosing money, their market is growing up. Personally I buy more stuffs in Shopee better than Lazada.Games will come and go, but I believe Garena will still be able to grow.
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    • SR050321·08-20SR050321
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ due to disappointing results, infaltion has caused people to spend less and economy grow slower. Target price $40I maybe wrong, just my personal target.
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    • JRas·08-19JRas
      SEA share will continue to drop further if the fed toincrease rates again 
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    • Henryee18·08-18Henryee18
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ By right it should have a 70 support line, if it breaks, we will be looking at 65.If it breaks again, then a further 53.
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    • LHC0511·08-18LHC0511
      The downward momentum will crack the 70 USD support. Likely to test low of 53. Will buy some between 53 to 70
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