• Omega88·09-25 22:08Omega88
      $Sea Ltd(SE)$ Chief executive Forrest Li said in an internal memo sent to staff on Thursday that the leadership team has decided that it will not take any cash compensation "until the company reaches self-sufficiency"."With investors fleeing for 'safe haven' investments, we do not anticipate being able to raise funds in the market," Mr Li said, reiterating that the company's primary objective for the next 12 to 18 months is to achieve positive cash flow as soon as possible. Li has finally realized that the previous approach of burning excessive cash is not working! But better be late than never!The good news is Sea has sufficent cash to sustain itself in short to medium term as it has raised about US$6.3 billion of cash when the share price was at its peak! Based on its cash burn rate of US$1.4 billion last year and more conservative spending in the upcoming quarters, the cash should keep the business running for a while.The once formidable Unicorn stock from SG has seen its share price dropped significantly since Dec 21 and its share price has dropped ~74% YTD!! Notably, Temasek Holdings have added ~ 0.2mil shares to take its total stake in SE to 2.75mil shares, which is worth ~US$170 mil.With more impending interest hikes, it would be good if Sea focus more on their gaming business which is the cash cow instead of expanding their loss-making business (e-commerce and fintech). Go slow and steady.Although I'm not vested in the stock in the short-term, I'll be monitoring its progress closely to see how the company is planning to reduce costs and improve its profitability! As the gaming industry is expected to grow from current US$200 billion to US$400 billion by 2027 and Garena will be a gem in the Esports industry. Do you agree with me? Let me know your thoughts!!@TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger       
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    • Omega88·09-23 22:26Omega88
      $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ Ray Dalio Says 4.5% Interest Rate Would Sink Stocks by 20%!!Based on an interest rate of 4.5%, the present value discount effect and an assumed 10% decline in incomes, Dalio estimates these factors combined will create a 20% drop in equity prices on average, with longer-duration assets suffering the worst! Hence, I believe there will be more downside!! Tiger brothers and sisters, brace yourself for more volatility ahead!!@Daily_Discussion  @CaptainTiger  @TigerStars  @MillionaireTiger  
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    • TB_Research·09-22TB_Research

      Hawkish Fed: Higher interest rates for a longer time

      Here are the key takeaways of US Fed September meeting:Higher interest rates for a longer timeVolcker-esque PowellPutin factorHigher interest rates for a longer timeThe US Fed took an indirect way to shock the market. It stuck to the market expectations of raising interest rate by 75 bps.But what caught the market by surprise is that itraised the dot plot significantly. The key 2023 median dot was raised to 4.625%. This is much higher than the market expectations of 4.1% for the end of next year. Below are the details of the dot plots:2022: 4.375% versus 4.125% expected, 4.23% priced2023: 4.625% versus 4.375% expected, 4.12% priced2024: 3.875% versus ~ 4% expected, 3.47% priced2025: 2.875% versus ~ 3.375% expected, 3.23% pricedLong-run: 2.5% versus 2.50% expectedIn other words, the US Fed is communicating to the markets that interest rates are heading higher and will stay there “for some time.” This is in stark contrast to Fed Chair Powell’s loose monetary policy stance last year when he regarded inflation as ‘transitory’.Volcker-esque PowellPowell also stated that we are taking “forceful and rapid steps” to bring inflation to 2%. He is showing his resolve that he will do whatever it takes to stop inflation. This is similar to the former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker who broke high inflation with punishing rate increases in the early 1980s.In a further similarity to Volcker, Powell appeared to have subtly reference Paul Volcker by quoting his autobiography, “Keeping At It.” Towards the end of his opening statement, he states that the US Fed will “keep at it” in their fight against inflation.This is also nothing new, as Powell gave a speech earlier this month with a subtle reference to Volcker that “we will keep at it” until the fight against inflation is over.Putin factorRussia President Vladimir Putin could possibly have made Powell’s fight against inflation a tougher one.Yesterday, he announced the partial mobilization of the Russian population, including calling military reservists into active service. This is an escalation of the Ukraine conflict and could possibly boost crude oil prices.In the recent August CPI figures, one silver lining is the falling oil prices as gasoline prices fell 10.6% in August, the biggest monthly drop in more than two years. But inflation was still red hot as everything else increased.Now, consumer prices could come down as a possible recession reduce demand for consumer goods and services. But, this could benegated if oil prices shoot back up.Crude oil prices are languishing at $84.1. This is about a 30% drop from the high of $121.7 this year. If crude oil prices rally back to $120 as a result of geopolitical tensions, inflation will continue to be a problem, regardless of how many rate hikes the US Fed makes. This will be a worst-case scenario for Powell.
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    • Alvin 邹咏翰·09-22Alvin 邹咏翰

      Fed raised 0.75% as expected but markets slumped. Why?

      The Fed raised the interest rate by 0.75% which was expected but the S&P 500 reversed course and closed down 2% for the day.Shouldn't the market have already priced in this rate hike?Yes, the market has priced in the current rate hike but it has not priced in the future rate hikes.There was a shift in the expected rate hikes after the last Fed meeting. So the market adjusted for the new piece of information.Markets are forward looking.This is where we look at the Fed's dot plot - a chart that records each Fed official's projection for the central bank's key short-term interest rate.In June, the median 2022 year-end projection was 3.4% while for end-2023 was 3.8%.The dot plot released yesterday showed that the expectation has risen. End-2022 projection rose to 4 - 4.5% while end-2023 saw 4.5 - 5% estimates.There's also no easing of interest rate until 2024.A very quick escalation considering only 3 months have passed.While the accuracy of the dot plot is a suspect, it does signal how increasingly hawkish the Fed has become which brings about more recessionary fears to the markets.It doesn't help when the Fed chairman's language was harsher than previous speeches. The term 'soft landing' has been ditched and Powell replaced it with 'some pain'.He said, "higher interest rates, slower growth and a softening labor market are all painful for the public that we serve, but they're not as painful as failing to restore price stability."It is also going to be painful for growth stocks for the next few years too.PS: I will be doing a live webinar on Tiger platform on 27 Sep 2022 - register here https://live.byteoc.com/9999/6253271
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      Fed raised 0.75% as expected but markets slumped. Why?
    • ShayKC·09-22ShayKC
    • ShayKC·09-22ShayKC
    • Ironbark·09-22Ironbark
      Nailed it!  What about next month? 75bp or 50bp?
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    • Snowkat·09-22Snowkat
      Will there be a bigger bloodbath today? $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ View on DJIA(.DJI)BullishBearish[Smug] [Glance] 
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    • StarLuck·09-22StarLuck

      Fed deliver 3rd-straight big hike, sees more increases ahead

      Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time and forecast they would reach 4.6% in 2023, stepping up their fight to curb inflation that’s persisted near the highest levels since the 1980s.In a statement Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee repeated that it “is highly attentive to inflation risks.” The central bank also reiterated it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” and “is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective.”Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.The decision, which was unanimous, takes the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate to 3% to 3.25% -- the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis, and up from near zero at the start of this year.For Bloomberg’s TOPLive blog on the Fed decision and press conference, click hereOfficials expect the benchmark rate to rise to 4.4% by the year end and 4.6% during 2023, according to the median estimate in updated quarterly projections published alongside the statement. That indicates a fourth-straight 75 basis-point hike could be on the table for the next gathering in November, about a week before the midterm elections.Further ahead, rates were seen stepping down to 3.9% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025.The projections, which showed a steeper rate path than officials laid out in June, underscore the Fed’s resolve to cool inflation despite the risk that surging borrowing costs could tip the US into recession.Before the release, traders expected rates to reach 4.5% in early 2023 before falling about a half point by the end of the year.Powell and his colleagues, slammed for a slow initial response to escalating price pressures, have pivoted aggressively to catch up and are now delivering the most aggressive policy tightening since the Fed under Paul Volcker four decades ago.The updated forecasts also showed unemployment rising to 4.4% by the end of next year and the same at the end of 2024 -- up from 3.9% and 4.1%, respectively, in the June projections.Estimates for economic growth in 2023 were marked down to 1.2% and 1.7% in 2024, reflecting a bigger impact from tighter monetary policy.Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June, as measured by the 12-month change in the US consumer price index. But it’s failed to come down as quickly in recent months as Fed officials had hoped: In August, it was still 8.3%.Job growth, meanwhile, has remained robust and the unemployment rate, at 3.7%, is still below levels most Fed officials consider to be sustainable in the longer run.The failure of the labour market to soften has added to the impetus for a more-aggressive tightening path at the US central bank.Fed action is also taking place against the backdrop of tightening by other central banks to confront price pressures which have spiked around the globe. Collectively, about 90 have raised interest rates this year, and half of them have hiked by at least 75 basis points in one shot.@TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger 
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    • koolgal·09-22koolgal
      It's official!  The Feds have spoken and raised the interest rate by 75 basis point.  This is the 3rd straight increase of 0.75% to quell persistently high inflation. Jerome Powell has reiterated his stance from Jackson Hole, " The FOMC is strongly resolved to bring inflation down to 2% and we will keep at it until the job is done."So until the trend of inflation is down, the stock markets will certainly be volatile and the sentiments bearish.The markets reacted negatively today after the announcement and the 3 US Indexes closed down. Investors are now pricing in a peak Feds Fund Rate of 4.6% in 1Q 2023 and recessionary fears are now heightened.In times like this, I am reminded of Warren Buffett's wise saying, "When there is Fear in the market, it is time to be Greedy."I stand ready to bargain hunt quality stocks selling at huge discounts.  Alphabet hit its 1 year low yesterday and today Meta Platforms also went down to its lowest level too.  At 28% drop for Alphabet and 60% drop for Meta Platforms, these stocks are oversold and undervalued.It is time for action!@MillionaireTiger  @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  
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    • 卧升龙·09-22卧升龙
    • StickyRice·09-22StickyRice
      S&P 500 could fall 10% more if recession comes to fruition, Goldman strategist predictsThe U.S. equity market could experience further losses as rising interest rates, stubbornly high inflation and slower economic growth drive recession fears, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist, in an interview.While the S&P 500 (SP500) has already dropped 21% so far in 2022, Oppenheimer said stocks can decline by an additional ~10% if the economy tips into recession, he told Bloomberg. Equities usually fall 30% during cyclical bear markets, he added.Oppenheimer noted that the top in inflation and interest rates is unlikely to occur before year-end. Earlier, the Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points for a third time as the central bank struggles to bring down inflationary pressures. At the same time, the Fed's dot plot showed that the fed funds rate is expected to peak in 2023 before potential cuts in 2024 and beyond.That implies the path for higher rates remains extended, as inflation stays at persistently high levels, thus stock valuations could get knocked lower as financial conditions tighten.Stocks aren't the only asset class getting dragged down. The same is true for bonds, commodities, cryptocurrencies and others. In turn, Oppenheimer contended that cash and short-dated bonds seem attractive now, he pointed out to Bloomberg. The Wells Fargo Investment Institute, meanwhile, predicted that the Treasury yield curve will stay inverted longer than usual and provided a list of its favored bonds picks for investors.
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    • Optionspuppy·09-22Optionspuppy
      Yes 75 points to 3.25 % Am buying t bills to use the interest to invest partly And also am selling calls of $Alphabet(GOOG)$ To hedge drops I think tomorrow can sell at 16 to$17 
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    • TofuQQ·09-21TofuQQ
    • bananaman123·09-21bananaman123
    • Vixenvixen·09-21Vixenvixen
      The FED isn't the sole reason for markets diving.Remember that the markets are forward looking, while FED's interest rates are lagging indicators.There are several reasons for the market dives. Although there is no need for any reason for rallies orretreats in the stock market.Now, we all witness the massive bounce from mid June to mid August. The markets then dived back close to its critical support area.In my opinion, it's the series of events & news that spooked the markets.Namely: FED Interest Rate Hike, FedEx, CPI Report, Russia Ukraine War, China USA tensions & etc, However, when we take a closer look into history. We can see that everytime the FED raises interest rates, the probability of a positive return after 1 year is 100%.To conclude, the upcoming CPI Report is a critical signal to peak inflation or inflation is still on the rise. I believe it's peaking based on commodities & consumer discretionary prices dropping. 
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    • HH浩·09-21HH浩
      If Fed follows the consensus which is to raise the point by 75 basis, i think market should have a relief rally tonight and probably till Friday. Come next week, indexes will continue to go down as long as the job reports, Consumers sentiments CPI and core machinery index points to one thing - no sight of inflation to cool below 5%. @话题虎 @Tiger_Comments @小虎活动 @angelchow @Tiger_Earnings @TigerBrokers @MillionaireTiger @rudson 
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    • Alubin·09-21Alubin
      Banking Fed will go 100bps but less times
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    • MaverickTiger·09-16MaverickTiger

      Why FedEx's warning RECESSION again?

      $FedEx(FDX)$ seldom has plunge 16% due to earnings, but it happened after close September 15th. The company was supposed to announce its 23Q1 report on September 22, but it announced the preliminary results ending August 31, 2022 one week in advance. Lower Q2 guidance,widely missed estimates and withdraw guidance for fiscal year23 makes the new CEO said, The weak global freight volume has led to the disappointing performance of FedEx. The company had expected demand to increase, but it actually declined.Is this another signal of "global ecession"?It is preliminarily estimated that the adjusted operating profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 ended August 31 this year is $1.23 billion, far less than the analyst's expectation of $1.74 billion. At the same time, the adjusted EPS was $3.44, down from $4.37 in the same period last year, and far lower than the widely believed $5.14 in the market.The company specifically stated that the poor performance was mainly adversely affected by the accelerated global sales weakness in the last few weeks of the reporting period.FedEx's business is divided into three main parts: FedEx Express, FedEx Ground and FedEx Freight. This time, the management thinks that all businesses were affected at the end of the quarter. But we look at it from the perspective of the consensus expected by the market Some of FedEx Express was most affected.Macroeconomic weakness in Asia and challenges to European operations are the main factors affecting this part of the company's performance. After all, ground and freight services are mainly in the United States, and Global businesses are more vulnerable to the impact of a strong dollar.At the same time, it also cut the forecast of Q2: with the further weakening of business conditions, the adjusted EPS of Q2 was US $2.75, which was lower than the market expectation of US $5.46, and the revenue forecast was US $23.5-24 billion, which was lower than the expected consensus of US $24.87 billion.The CEO said:Global freight volumes declined as macroeconomic trends worsened significantly in both the international and the United States during the latter part of the reporting period. We are responding quickly to these negative factors, but given the speed of change, the results in the first quarter were lower than we expected.Although this performance is disappointing, we are actively accelerating our efforts to reduce costs and evaluating other measures to improve productivity, reduce variable costs and implement structural cost reduction measures. These efforts are aligned with the strategy we outlined in June, and I remain confident of meeting our financial targets for fiscal year 2025.So how does the company plan to respond?Cost cut.Cost cuts include reducing the frequency of flights, reducing number-related man-hours, consolidating sorting operations, canceling planned network capacity and other projects, delaying hiring and closing more than 90 FedEx offices. It also plans to close five company office facilities.As FedEx's performance actually reflects the intensity of supply chain activities, it is often used to observe the American economy, and the market often regards its performance as a barometer of the vitality of the American economy.Therefore, everything related to this has fallen.$Amazon.com(AMZN)$Down 1.5%,$United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$It fell by 6%.It seems that the chill has also brought to the whole market.
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      Why FedEx's warning RECESSION again?
    • TechnicalMaster·09-19TechnicalMaster

      Fed is likely to Raise by 75bps, SPX Short-term Reverse Needed?

      Fed is likely to raise by 75bps? SPX short-term sees the reverse need?, Dollar will continue to be strong.The Federal Reserve will start an interest rate meeting this Sept 21st. According to the general market forecast, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Once raised by 75 basis points, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate will be raised to more than 3%. There is not much room for interest future hike.Now the highest expectation for the Fed to raise interest rates is 4.4%, which means that after this interest rate hike, the Fed may have 2 to 3 interest rate hikes to end this round of interest rate hikes.Fed target rate probabilities chart as of Sep. 19, 2022. Source: CME GroupOf course, it also depends on changes in US inflation and economic growth and employment data. If U.S. inflation can be brought under control relatively quickly, the Fed may reduce the number of interest rate hikes.On the other hand, if U.S. inflation remains high, the Fed may continue to raise interest rates, so it depends on the specific inflation data. The U.S. dollar index continued to rise as the Fed raised interest rates, leading to a depreciation of non-U.S. currencies.When will the dollar peak?I think there are several factors that could lead to a reversal of the dollar rally.First, the Fed's policy stance has eased. The movement of the US dollar in recent months, especially against the G10 currencies, is closely related to the level of US interest rates. If core U.S. inflation slows further in the coming months, it could spark speculation about a future Fed policy shift.Second, global economic growth has bottomed out. While we believe that the global economic outlook is likely to continue to be revised downward, if pressures on energy prices ease and/or if fiscal stimulus in various countries is more effective, economic forward-looking indicators outside the United States may pick up, which may affect the strength of the dollar.For now, the dollar tends to benefit when global growth is under pressure and the growth prospects of America's major trading partners, such as Europe, are bleak.Seems the dollar may rise further in the near term, and it will remain strong for some time.Regarding stocks market. What's you plan? Continue to short or wait for opportunities?Do you believe there would be a short reverse if the 75bps being priced in. Other wise 100bps hike would cause a big drop.Perhaps the before the last round of bear market drop, there need a reverse. How do you think so?$S&P 500(.SPX)$ ,$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ .
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    • Capital_Insights·09-20Capital_Insights

      6 Risks in September: Expecting a Bear Rebound May be Disappointed

      Hawkish rate hike storm, Davis double kill, high inflation, economic recession, repurchase flameout, pension fund sales, quantitative to short... U.S. stocks are still not good, agencies warn that even if there is a small bear market rebound, and don't hold your hopes up.Below are some of the factors that still affect the development of US stocks:1. Hawkish Fed's Rate HikesThe market expects that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 bps on Wendesday, also the expectation of raising by 100 bps has also increased.  Meanwhile, the expectation on next two interest rate meetings this year will maintain the pace of rapid interest rate hikes.Goldman Sachs’ forecast is more aggressive.The bank raised its final interest rate forecast by the end of 2022 to a range of 4%-4.25%. Specifically, the interest rate will be raised by 75 bps in September and 50 basis points in November and December.According to the latest survey of economists released by the media, most economists expect the ceiling of the federal funds rate to hit 4% by the end of 2022, to maintain this position in 2023, and to cut interest rates in early 2024.You may know that raising interest rates will cause asset prices to fall, but don't understand the process clearly. The impact of interest rate hikes is mainly divided into two parts, namely valuation and performance, also known as Davis Double Play.The first play is that the rise in interest rates will lead to the revaluation of assets, the stock price-earnings ratio will drop sharply, and the fall in asset prices often occurs in an instant (usually within a month);The second play is the decline of the macro economy and business operations. This kind of market generally has a long cycle and will be accompanied by large fluctuations in asset prices (not necessarily falling). For like the central bank's interest rate hike will first pass on the deposit and loan interest rates of commercial banks, and then affect commercial activities and consumption habits.Davis’s financial life had three phases: learn, earn, and return. The learn phase lasted into his early forties, and the earn phase stretched from his forties into his late seventies. At that point, he tackled the return phase.” Return phase = philanthropy. Davis died in 1994 leaving $900 million to personal cause.www.amazon.comOn Monday's trading, the US 30-year mortgage rate soared to 6%, the highest since November 2008. The dollar was unchanged after the news, but all asset prices fell. This shows that the rise in risk-free interest rates is gradually eroding the real demand for assets.2. High Inflation and RecessionLast week, the economic barometer $FedEx(FDX)$ issued a profit warning, the CEO even directly warned that "we are entering a global recession, and the company data is not a good omen."Global inflation is highThe Monetary Authority of Singapore said that in the medium term, global inflation is likely to remain at higher levels for longer than the low levels of benign inflation seen over the past decade.The U.S. CPI data rose more than expected in August and the number of initial jobless claims released a signal that inflation was entrenched, reinforcing the importance of accelerating interest rate hikes.Overall, high inflation and economic recession are still the main factors under pressure on US stocks. At present, the actual interest rate hike action has not been fully transmitted to the demand side, and reducing inflation not only depends on the strength of interest rate hikes, but also takes time to ferment.Bank of America's global fund manager survey for September shows fund managers believes recession is likely has increased further in September to 68%, the highest since May '20 ,and 79% of the global fund manager survey participants see slower inflation over the next 12 months than today, hinting that inflation may have peaked last month.Goldman Sachs also sharply lowered its GDP growth rate forecast for the U.S. economy this year to 0 from 4% a year ago, and lowering its economic forecast for next year to 1.1% from an earlier 1.5%.3. Companies Buyback StalledThis week, repurchase, an important engine of U.S. stocks, stalled. Beginning last Friday, 50% of S&P 500 listed companies entered a silent period for repurchase for one month. During the period of silence, Goldman's repurchase unit has turned back to its usual busy state, with the 10b-5.1 program kicking in, reducing average daily trading volume by 30-35%, or about 0.7 times the average daily volume in 2021. The slowdown is crucial and means stocks could be even worse.https://www.zerohedge.com/, BY TYLER DURDEN4. Month-end and Quarter-end Rebalancing of Pensions FundsAccording to Goldman Sachs calculations, there will be more selling pressure by the end of September - pension fund monthly and quarter-end rebalancing.Goldman Sachs models estimate that pensions could sell $18 billion in equities. From the perspective of the past three years, in terms of absolute dollar value, the $18 billion sell-off ranked 58th; in terms of net value, the $18 billion sell-off ranked 33rd, and the scale is not small.While Last two weeks of quarter could see rally due topension fundrebalancing in a similar manner to March and June. This is counter to strong seasonal tendencies and up to 84 billion dollars of debt securities maturing on Fed's balance sheet in last two weeks.5. CTA Strategy funds May Turn to ShortEarlier, UBS strategist Nicolas Le Roux pointed out that CTA will turn bearish again in September, and recently US stocks may face some selling pressure from CTA in the next two weeks.JPMorgan analyst John Schlegel said, if the economy ends up heading for a recession, U.S. stocks could even fall below their mid-June lows, at which point the CTA strategy fund could be shorting stocks further.Goldman Sachs expects to buy $7.7 billion in stocks in the coming week and reduce its holdings of $614 million in the next month as the stock market rebounds.https://www.zerohedge.com/, BY TYLER DURDEN6. Fund's Cash Balance A 20 Years HighAnother statistic to watch is that fund managers have now raised their cash balances to 6.1%, the highest level in 20 years. Rising interest rates have made cash investing equally attractive, both positive and negative.Bank of America's global fund manager survey for September shows sentiment among money managers is 'super-bearish'. ET takes a look at the key highlights of the brokerage's survey based on responses from 212 participants with $616 billion in assets under management (AUM). The findings reflect the mood among global fund managers.Fund managers' average cash balance has risen to 6.1% in September - the highest since October 2001 after the 9/11 shock, and well above the long-term average of 4.8% as recession concerns rise, the survey said.The bad news doesn't stop there, US stocks are hardly optimistic this week, and Goldman Sachs warned that anyone expecting a "bear market rebound" may be disappointed.$S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ,$ProShares Short QQQ(PSQ)$ ,$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ ,$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ ,$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ ,$DJIA(.DJI)$ ,$Dow30 Bear 3X ETF(SDOW)$Want to join other topics as well to win more coins? [Markets Related]:Fed Meeting(21 Sept): 75bps rate hike, or 100bps?
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    • Alvin 邹咏翰·09-22Alvin 邹咏翰

      Fed raised 0.75% as expected but markets slumped. Why?

      The Fed raised the interest rate by 0.75% which was expected but the S&P 500 reversed course and closed down 2% for the day.Shouldn't the market have already priced in this rate hike?Yes, the market has priced in the current rate hike but it has not priced in the future rate hikes.There was a shift in the expected rate hikes after the last Fed meeting. So the market adjusted for the new piece of information.Markets are forward looking.This is where we look at the Fed's dot plot - a chart that records each Fed official's projection for the central bank's key short-term interest rate.In June, the median 2022 year-end projection was 3.4% while for end-2023 was 3.8%.The dot plot released yesterday showed that the expectation has risen. End-2022 projection rose to 4 - 4.5% while end-2023 saw 4.5 - 5% estimates.There's also no easing of interest rate until 2024.A very quick escalation considering only 3 months have passed.While the accuracy of the dot plot is a suspect, it does signal how increasingly hawkish the Fed has become which brings about more recessionary fears to the markets.It doesn't help when the Fed chairman's language was harsher than previous speeches. The term 'soft landing' has been ditched and Powell replaced it with 'some pain'.He said, "higher interest rates, slower growth and a softening labor market are all painful for the public that we serve, but they're not as painful as failing to restore price stability."It is also going to be painful for growth stocks for the next few years too.PS: I will be doing a live webinar on Tiger platform on 27 Sep 2022 - register here https://live.byteoc.com/9999/6253271
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      Fed raised 0.75% as expected but markets slumped. Why?
    • TigerEvents·09-19TigerEvents

      [PREDICTION] How will SPY close on Wednesday 21 Sept?

      Click to vote. Guess How will$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ close on Wednesday 21 Sept? If you get correct answers, you can get 10 Tiger coins.Stock futures pointed to more losses Monday — following the major averages’ worst week since June — as interest rates surged ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting this week. Stocks had been falling following last Tuesday's report on consumer inflation for August. The consumer price index for August was up 0.1% instead of falling 0.1%, as expected by economists. As a result, expectations have increased for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation.On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed is expected to raise its target fed funds rate by another 75 basis points Wednesday and also provide new forecasts on the economy, inflation and interest rates.I would like to invite you to share your thoughts about$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and your prediction of its closing price.💰Activity DetailsClick to vote. Guess How will$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ close on Wednesday 21 Sept? If you get correct answers, you can get 10 Tiger coins.You have the chance of winning 100 Tiger coins by expressing your views in the comment section.The event will last until 23:00 on Wednesday 21 Sept SGT?Welcome to participate!
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      [PREDICTION] How will SPY close on Wednesday 21 Sept?
    • Tiger_Comments·09-21Tiger_Comments

      Dr. Lan: What's The End of Rate Hikes & What Powell Fears Most

      Latest Comment from Tiger Broker Market Commentator-Dr Lan.Fed's rate hike decision seems to be certain. It's basically 75 bps judging from the futures market, with a negligible probability (20%) of 100 bps. Powell will definitely follow the market's expectations. Investors should focus on the discussion around the future policy path on September FOMC meeting.Welcome to Read:82% probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis pointsFed is likely to Raise by 75bps, SPX Short-term Reverse Needed?[PREDICTION] How will SPY close on Wednesday 21 Sept?Source: CNBC.comAfter this rate hike, the US fund rate will enter the 3%-3.25% range. This rate is essentially flush with the current 10-year rate, and even though the 10-year rate will continue to climb after the rate hike, the curve will definitely flatten.Now there are 2 other questions to ponder:What is the end of the Fed's rate hike - 4%? or 5%?Will the Fed stop raising rates or even start lowering them by early next year as the futures market predicts?Before we analyze the path of the Fed's rate hikes, let's look at Powell's style.1. Powell's personal style - not confidentPeople who have followed Powell for a long time and analyzed his personality will know that he is not confident.Powell's lack of self-confidence comes from 3 areas:(1) lower education background than that of the former Federal Reserve Chairman(2) bullied by the first president he met after taking office(3) encountered an unprecedented pandemic and high inflation.The unconfident Powell likes to quote history and often mentions "19xx" from time to time between his words. It is a very good habit to like to study history, especially in investing. Hedge funds also "backtest" the historical data. But when he quoted history too many times. People may feel that he is not confident about his own words.The Great Inflation, which lasted for 17 years from 1965 to 1982, impacted on Powell's current characteristics. After WW2, the inflation was not obvious but there were 17 years of hyperinflation in The Great Inflation. This period wad also called"the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in This period wad also called "the greatest failure of American macroeconomic policy in the postwar period" (Siegel 1994).WSJ found that Powell is a great admirer of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, and often quotes Volcker's autobiography "Keeping At It" in his speeches.Volcker's main achievement was to solve the 17-year-long US inflation. Although the US economy eventually entered a severe recession, inflation has also gone down.2. Low inflation and high employment can't be achieved at the same time?According to the classical macro curve "Phillips curve", we can only take one end between the two goals of inflation and employment.If unemployment rate is low, then inflation will be high; if inflation is down, then unemployment will be high.But the Phillips curve is not fixed; it will move up and down.During the Great inflation, when inflation went high, the unemployment rate also went up. So hyperinflation becomes the main target for the Fed to deal with.After the financial crisis in 2008, global inflation, especially in the US, has remained low, so the Fed's goal has been to raise employment. But now employment is saturated and inflation is high, so the Fed's goal is to deal with inflation.3. Lessons from the Great InflationWhy did US have a 17-year-long hyperinflation? There are both man-made reasons and the natural laws of the economy.But one important lesson is that the longer hyperinflation lasts, the less likely it is that inflation will come down, creating a negative feedback. It means "if the bread maker expects the price of flour to continue to rise, then the bread maker will raise the price of bread; if the landlord expects the bread maker to raise the price of bread, then he will also raise the price of rent". When everyone expects inflation to continue, then inflation will become more stubborn.Powell also know this. So he repeatedly says that he wants to wipe out inflationary expectations in society.For Powell, the goal now is to deal with inflation at all costs, and the longer hyperinflation lasts, the more troublesome it becomes. Therefore Powell will not really care about the stock market rise or fall.So if the market still interpreted his words as dovish, and the stock market rises, Powell should not be happy. The stock market rises will also drive inflation: company stocks rise, then the company's capital expenditure will also rise.4. The end of rate hike is 4% or 5%?The analysts have different estimates on the end fund rate:But I think 4% or 5% will not be the ultimate goal of the Fed, because the Fed does not have an ultimate goal. We can refer to the end rate during the Great Inflation when Volcker raised the interest to 20%.Many people knew that the Fed would cancel the dot plot this time, but no one bothered to why is that. The dot plot will give the long-term path of rate hikes.The Fed canceled the dot plot this time because Powell does not want to give the market any hope of the possible "end of rate hike". Powell does not want the market to interpret the dot plot as: After another 100 bps, the Fed will stop rate hike.Bottom LineDuring the 17-year great inflation, inflation was up and down many times. The lowest point of the inflation retreat was once at 3.7%, but then it rose rapidly again.I don't know if history will repeat itself. But Powell will learn from history and dare not ease up on rate hikes, let alone cut rates. Even if inflation falls to 3.7%, Powell may not cut rates in order to avoid a similar repeat of hyperinflation this time.Any expectation that the Fed will turn dovish is illusory.
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      Dr. Lan: What's The End of Rate Hikes & What Powell Fears Most
    • koolgal·09-22koolgal
      It's official!  The Feds have spoken and raised the interest rate by 75 basis point.  This is the 3rd straight increase of 0.75% to quell persistently high inflation. Jerome Powell has reiterated his stance from Jackson Hole, " The FOMC is strongly resolved to bring inflation down to 2% and we will keep at it until the job is done."So until the trend of inflation is down, the stock markets will certainly be volatile and the sentiments bearish.The markets reacted negatively today after the announcement and the 3 US Indexes closed down. Investors are now pricing in a peak Feds Fund Rate of 4.6% in 1Q 2023 and recessionary fears are now heightened.In times like this, I am reminded of Warren Buffett's wise saying, "When there is Fear in the market, it is time to be Greedy."I stand ready to bargain hunt quality stocks selling at huge discounts.  Alphabet hit its 1 year low yesterday and today Meta Platforms also went down to its lowest level too.  At 28% drop for Alphabet and 60% drop for Meta Platforms, these stocks are oversold and undervalued.It is time for action!@MillionaireTiger  @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  
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    • TB_Research·09-20TB_Research

      Three “St-“ points for US Fed meeting: Strategic Ambiguity

      Today marks the start of the US Fed meeting. I wrote some final thoughts in the form of three “St”: (Note: I am not a Straits Times writer😊):Sticky InflationStrategic AmbiguityStatus QuoSticky InflationI have written that inflation is sticky and has been surging uncontrollably. See more details on sticky inflation:Talking Points: Sticky InflationStrategic AmbiguityToday, I read an article that US President Joe Biden has veered from US policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan. Now, the US will defend Taiwan from any military invasion. This is a change from the longstanding policy stance where the US does not make clear whether it will militarily defend Taiwan.I postulate that the US Fed is also engaged in a policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards inflation. Last year, Fed Chair Powell regarded inflation as “transitory”, even though it is obvious the inflation could get out of hand as US exits from the COVID pandemic. With massive monetary and fiscal stimulus pumped into the US economy, it is a no-brainer that inflation could surge uncontrollably instead of being transitory.As a result, the Fed is behind the curve when it comes to inflation and was slow in hiking interest rates. Now, he is facing a tough choice as inflation is now running super-hot at 8% to 9% handles. This is far above its 2% inflation target.Before we can blame Powell further, we must note that is reasonable for him to engage in “strategic ambiguity”. This is because it is politically inappropriate for Fed to be hawkish. No one wants to be blamed for slowing the economy or crashing the stock market. We all loved to ride on the bull market forever, regardless of whether it is sustainable or not.Now, when Powell switched to “strategic clarity” on fighting inflation, he is faced with strong pressure from the politicians. He recently warned that there could be more economic pain from sharply higher interest rates, with a possible hard landing in the US economy. This has resulted in pushback from US politicians, including Senator Elizabeth Warren. Senator Warren warned that “Jerome Powell’s rhetoric is dangerous, and a Fed-manufactured recession is not inevitable — it’s a policy choice.” The lawmakers further criticized that policies by US Fed could lead to millions of job losses.Status Quo or notThis brings me to my final point.In the September meeting, the US Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate by 75 bps, bringing the upper bound Fed Funds rate to 3.25%. This is the status quo position.But, the US Fed is really in a tough position. It is caught between a rock and a hard place.Fundamentally, inflation is too high. It is also broad-based and sticky. The gap between inflation and Fed Funds rate is just too wide. A 100bps hike will only put the upper bound Fed Funds rate at 3.5%, leaving a shortfall of 4.8%. In another words, the Fed Funds rate should be at least 7%, instead of 3.5%.So, it could be better for US Fed to engage in “strategic clarity” towards fighting inflation. Be relentless in adopting a hawkish stance, and possibly hike 100 bps in the September meeting. Such Volcker-esque signal could be needed to signal that the Fed is doing whatever it takes to fight inflation.Or, the US Fed could remain in status quo and engaged in “strategic ambiguity” towards fighting inflation. This will be a politically popular move as the US mid-term elections is approaching in November this year. Powell could listen to the criticism from US lawmakers and take lukewarm steps in fighting inflation.This is similar to the policies of US Fed President Arthur Burns in the 1970s where small rate hikes were taken to fight inflation. This has resulted in inflation to rise uncontrollably. It was only when US Fed President Paul Volcker was in charge, then interest rates were raised high enough for inflation to be finally broken.In short, the US Fed is faced with a tough choice: to choose status quo of a 75 bps rate hike, or go against market expectations and raise interest rate by 100 bps to control inflation.
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      Three “St-“ points for US Fed meeting: Strategic Ambiguity
    • Tiger_chat·09-14Tiger_chat

      The Biggest Single Day Drop vs. Jump of AAPL- How To Cope With High Volatility?

      Sept. 14 vs. Sept. 13: $Apple(AAPL)$ closed down nearly 6% and rose 3.85% respectively, recording the biggest single day drop since September 2020 and jump since May.1. Low Beta vs High Beta?$Apple(AAPL)$ has been a good representative of low beta stocks. In comparison, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has high beta.Beta is a way of measuring a stock's volatility compared with the overall market's volatility.It means Apple tends to fluctuate in a small range in stock market. Thus, a near 6% plunge was particularly rare for Apple.In previous article, we mentioned that Apple’s single day jump was prompted by the company’s surprising pre-orders. While Apple’s single day plunge can attribute to the depressing and unexpected CPI data.2. Why does Apple join the high volatility ranks?Recently, many good news help push $Apple(AAPL)$ 's share higher: New product launchPositive pre-order dataInstitution’s net flow in AppleThese news also makes investors more confident on $Apple(AAPL)$. However, the coin always has two sides. Institutions and investors buy more Apple because they don't have much choice in this vulnerable market. The historical drop last night may help $Apple(AAPL)$ go back to the normal.3. Good strategies to cope with high volatility1) Basic and simple choiceNanette Abuhoff Jacobson,Investing strategists from Hartford Funds said,Adjusting the investment portfolio to 50/50Rate hikes will challenge the stock market over the next 6-12 months. Anyone looking at this investment period should consider reducing the proportion of equities and increasing the weighting in cash, bonds and commodities.If the market continue to go lower, investors may find a common scenario in recessions: stocks fall and bond markets rise.Investors can adjust stock/bond ratio of 60/40 to 50/50 and then moving back to 60/40 when the market sells off further.2) Advanced choice of OptionsStraddle and StrangleStraddle refers to buying a combination of “call and put” with the same strike price and expiration date, with the strike price usually taken close to the current price (ATM).The biggest advantage is that it does not judge the direction of the stock movement but only bets on high volatility, which means that the underlying stock needs to be volatile enough so that the return on one side is greater than the cost on both sides.The risk is that the price of the underlying stock is not volatile enough to offset the cost of buying two options.Strangle differs from Straddle in that it buys a combination of “call and put” with different strike prices, but the same expiration date, and the strike price is usually out-of-the-money (OTM).It allows you to take profit when the price breaks through a certain range (whether up or down). It’s suitable for stocks with very high volatility, typically growth stocks and technology stocks.Wonder what ticker is suitable for straddle and strangle? You can click "Options" of your familiar ticker, and click "Bulk Order" to find institutions trading on options.For example, investors bet on $Alibaba(BABA)$'s volatility and buy the combination of "call and put" at the same expiration date, which is "straddle" as we mentioned above.What's your opinions towards Apple's opposite move in 2 days?Do you have good strategies to cope with high volatility?Share your thoughts in the comment section and win tiger coins~
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      The Biggest Single Day Drop vs. Jump of AAPL- How To Cope With High Volatility?
    • OptionsDelta·09-20OptionsDelta

      82% probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points

      September 20 Fed interest rate forecast:Probability of a 75-point hike to 300-325 in September is 82%, and probability of a 100-point hike is 18%.The probability of a 75-point hike on Nov. 22 to 375-400 is 60.4%, the 50-point is 27.6%, and the 100-point is 11.9%.The probability of a 50-point rate hike on December 14 to 425-450 is 46.7%.Interest rate resolution on the day of the trend can be referred to:Let me tell you about yesterday's big order. I see the PUT of large-cap ETFs starting to close positions. The main big trades are in the same direction: spread, call, put.Among them, the spread is a heavy position strategy, while the PUT and call are relatively light positions, which may be because the odds are appropriate. There is plenty of room for a rebound, while a fall would test the June lows.At present many stock trend and market deviation, stock can be used as a reference, but I think now the market direction > stocks, specific can refer to Monday article: 100 million put big single bearish! There is no clear consensus on the path of rate rises. Institutions have not clear direction, we follow the flow to do the straddle or spread can be.Individual stock options are still dominated by straddles, but semiconductors, financials and pharmaceutical heavyweights have strong orders.Among them, Tesla has several recent bullish orders, as shown in the chart​$TSLA 20221007 330.0 CALL$​$TSLA 20220930 320.0 CALL$TSM, JNJ and JPM big orders are bullish. All three big orders are calendar strategies with a focus on December.Thanks to tiger friends support. If you are interested in options, you can join my discord:Options YYDS​​also tiger options group:Tiger Options Club
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      82% probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points
    • Robert J. T·09-21Robert J. T

      Higher interest rates good for the economy, not the stock market

      Today, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points and possibly by 100 basis points. After last Tuesday's US inflation figures, it has once again become clear that inflation is anything but a temporary phenomenon. It was immediately the worst day for the US stock market since June 2020. Just a few weeks ago, the narrative in equity markets was that a global recession was looming, but 3.5 million jobs have been created in the US labour market this year and industrial production has been rising at least 3 per cent all year. While consumer confidence is at an all-time low, consumers continue to spend. One of the reasons consumers are spending more and entrepreneurs are investing more is that interest rates are rising. When interest rates fell to zero or even below, central bankers wrongly assumed that people would stop saving and start consuming more. The opposite was the case, low interest rates and the accompanying signal that these were special times actually caused people to save more. Entrepreneurs also knew that zero per cent interest rates could not be right and it was impossible to make investment decisions on that basis. Now that interest rates are rising, commercial banks are also willing to extend credit again. With interest rates at zero per cent, there is little room to pass on margins, but they are succeeding thanks to rising interest rates. So the unusual phenomenon now occurs that interest rate hikes also have a positive effect on economic growth. To curb growth, interest rates will have to rise much further until there is a positive real interest rate and interest rates are also clearly above the neutral rate.Inflation data put US interest rates back at the level of the peak in June. The S&P 500 index was down 5 per cent at the time. Second-quarter results were better than expected (courtesy of inflation). Still, there are plenty of companies indicating that the economy is doing fine. According to Delta Airlines, there is plenty of flying, according to JP Morgan, there is plenty of borrowing and according to Apple, the list of people who have ordered the iPhone 14 pro-Max has not been this long in six years, including in China. This is while in China, lockdowns and housing market problems have reduced oil demand by 2.7 per cent. The wait is for the Chinese party congress to start on 16 October.About half of all income in the United States comes to households earning more than $100,000 a year. Most of these households own a house that they have paid off or financed with a mortgage at a historically low-interest rate of less than 3 per cent for the next 30 years. The fact that the same mortgage rates have risen above 6 per cent does not affect these people. At the same time, their wages are increasing by about 6.5 per cent. These people do not have less, but rather more to spend due to high inflation and rising interest rates. Not surprisingly, shops that cater mainly to the high-end are doing fine. Lower-income earners are much more affected by higher rents and higher food prices, an additional dilemma for the Federal Reserve.Higher-income earners often also invest part of their assets and now have more to choose from. They can safely invest it again in short-term US government bonds at an interest rate of 3.75 per cent. The earnings yield on equities (the inverse of the P/E ratio) is 5.9 per cent. That gap has been bigger before.Higher interest rates are not good for equity valuations, but obviously, neither is an (earnings) recession. It does not seem to matter much then whether the fire of inflation or the ice of recession will put pressure on share prices.Earnings valuations for the S&P 500 still look high and high-profit margins look vulnerable. That is not the case for Chinese stocks where all the bad news does seem to be discounted in valuations. Europe is a bit of a case apart. European equities are cheap, but there are plenty of reasons why they should remain cheap. Yet a more positive scenario is gradually creeping forward. High gas and electricity prices may cause them to fall sharply as early as this winter, and since inflation in Europe is actually largely due to energy prices, inflation in Europe may therefore fall much faster than in the US. This also means that the ECB will need to raise interest rates much less than the Federal Reserve and could possibly stop earlier. Now, the war in Ukraine and the elections in Italy still hang over Europe like a dark cloud, but all two are by definition temporary. If then also the US dollar turns, that might be the moment in the sun for European equities.The preference is for value stocks. Defensive value stocks are valued lower than the market average and the question is whether this is justified in the current market environment. In the more cyclical value stocks, a solid recession seems discounted. Furthermore, Big Tech, in particular, seems to have to take even more pain and that is also the reason why the stock market could still go down at the index level. Commodity stocks remain extremely cheap. In the short term, a recession or the standstill in the US and Chinese housing markets could throw a spanner in the works, but the long-term outlook is actually improving as a result. 
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      Higher interest rates good for the economy, not the stock market
    • Wayneqq·09-16Wayneqq
      The fed would most likely go for 75 bps because the economy is still "strong" but there are signs of "weakness" in their eyes.. For me.. if they are serious about tackling inflation.. the interest rate has to match inflation.. and they are still a long way off..The question to ask is.. with the US govt debt level at such insane level.. how much higher can they raise interest rate before the entire economy collapse and US govt declare bankruptis anyone guess..
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    • Tiger_chat·09-20Tiger_chat

      Battle of Bearish & Bullish Sentiment - Buy The Disagreement?

      $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ finally closed up 0.69% and 0.76% yesterday after a week of plunge of 4.8% and 5.5% last week.Unlike the previous unanimous pessimism, after a long period of decline, some investors also saw hope in yesterday's rally. The market is currently inconsistent about the direction of the stock market after the Fed resolution.Let's take a look at the pessimistic vs. optimistic sentiment among analysts.1. The market may make another record low?Some technical analysts say it seems increasingly likely that the S&P 500 will retest, and perhaps even break, the June lows when $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell to 3,630.In addition to "oversold", sometimes the stock market also appears super-oversold, which is a prelude to further declines. This happened before the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management crash, Black Monday in 1987 and the 1973-1974 bear market sell-off.a. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said3900 is an important support level, which records the highest trading volume in the past three years. But $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed under 3,900 on Friday, opening the door for a further decline.Some of the biggest companies in the market remain vulnerable. Weakness in the large tech stocks such as $Apple(AAPL)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ may be a significant factor in the continued decline of the stock market.b. Analyst Newton wrote,Given last week's decline, the possibility of a 1-2 day rally is possible. But I don't expect much of a rally until the S&P 500 hits support level around 3,700 in October.2. The odds are with the rally?In contrast to the pessimism, some analysts believe that the stock market is now over-sold and will start to rally after the Fed's resolution of 75bps.a: Sundial Capital Research analyst Jason Goepfert notedLast Tuesday, less than 1% of the components of the S&P 500 closed higher, a situation that has occurred only 28 times since 1940.Over the next 12 months, the index has risen an average of 15.6% and has been higher 79% of the time during that period.b: Marko Kolanovic, chief market strategist at JPMorgan, believes that despite the Fed's toughness, the decline will not be too great this year.While we recognize that the Fed's more hawkish policy and the resulting rise in real yields are putting pressure on equities, we also believe that any declines from here are likely to be limited.He believed that strong earnings, lower investor positions and stable long-term inflation expectations should cushion any declines in equities.Do you think it's an opportunity to buy the disagreement?Do you have any plan for this uncertain market?Share your thoughts in the comment section and win the tiger coins~
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      Battle of Bearish & Bullish Sentiment - Buy The Disagreement?
    • TB_Research·09-22TB_Research

      Hawkish Fed: Higher interest rates for a longer time

      Here are the key takeaways of US Fed September meeting:Higher interest rates for a longer timeVolcker-esque PowellPutin factorHigher interest rates for a longer timeThe US Fed took an indirect way to shock the market. It stuck to the market expectations of raising interest rate by 75 bps.But what caught the market by surprise is that itraised the dot plot significantly. The key 2023 median dot was raised to 4.625%. This is much higher than the market expectations of 4.1% for the end of next year. Below are the details of the dot plots:2022: 4.375% versus 4.125% expected, 4.23% priced2023: 4.625% versus 4.375% expected, 4.12% priced2024: 3.875% versus ~ 4% expected, 3.47% priced2025: 2.875% versus ~ 3.375% expected, 3.23% pricedLong-run: 2.5% versus 2.50% expectedIn other words, the US Fed is communicating to the markets that interest rates are heading higher and will stay there “for some time.” This is in stark contrast to Fed Chair Powell’s loose monetary policy stance last year when he regarded inflation as ‘transitory’.Volcker-esque PowellPowell also stated that we are taking “forceful and rapid steps” to bring inflation to 2%. He is showing his resolve that he will do whatever it takes to stop inflation. This is similar to the former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker who broke high inflation with punishing rate increases in the early 1980s.In a further similarity to Volcker, Powell appeared to have subtly reference Paul Volcker by quoting his autobiography, “Keeping At It.” Towards the end of his opening statement, he states that the US Fed will “keep at it” in their fight against inflation.This is also nothing new, as Powell gave a speech earlier this month with a subtle reference to Volcker that “we will keep at it” until the fight against inflation is over.Putin factorRussia President Vladimir Putin could possibly have made Powell’s fight against inflation a tougher one.Yesterday, he announced the partial mobilization of the Russian population, including calling military reservists into active service. This is an escalation of the Ukraine conflict and could possibly boost crude oil prices.In the recent August CPI figures, one silver lining is the falling oil prices as gasoline prices fell 10.6% in August, the biggest monthly drop in more than two years. But inflation was still red hot as everything else increased.Now, consumer prices could come down as a possible recession reduce demand for consumer goods and services. But, this could benegated if oil prices shoot back up.Crude oil prices are languishing at $84.1. This is about a 30% drop from the high of $121.7 this year. If crude oil prices rally back to $120 as a result of geopolitical tensions, inflation will continue to be a problem, regardless of how many rate hikes the US Fed makes. This will be a worst-case scenario for Powell.
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      Hawkish Fed: Higher interest rates for a longer time
    • StickyRice·09-22StickyRice
      S&P 500 could fall 10% more if recession comes to fruition, Goldman strategist predictsThe U.S. equity market could experience further losses as rising interest rates, stubbornly high inflation and slower economic growth drive recession fears, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist, in an interview.While the S&P 500 (SP500) has already dropped 21% so far in 2022, Oppenheimer said stocks can decline by an additional ~10% if the economy tips into recession, he told Bloomberg. Equities usually fall 30% during cyclical bear markets, he added.Oppenheimer noted that the top in inflation and interest rates is unlikely to occur before year-end. Earlier, the Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points for a third time as the central bank struggles to bring down inflationary pressures. At the same time, the Fed's dot plot showed that the fed funds rate is expected to peak in 2023 before potential cuts in 2024 and beyond.That implies the path for higher rates remains extended, as inflation stays at persistently high levels, thus stock valuations could get knocked lower as financial conditions tighten.Stocks aren't the only asset class getting dragged down. The same is true for bonds, commodities, cryptocurrencies and others. In turn, Oppenheimer contended that cash and short-dated bonds seem attractive now, he pointed out to Bloomberg. The Wells Fargo Investment Institute, meanwhile, predicted that the Treasury yield curve will stay inverted longer than usual and provided a list of its favored bonds picks for investors.
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    • MaverickTiger·09-21MaverickTiger

      Another Sign of Recession is Ford?

      Seldom did Dow Jones $DJIA(.DJI)$ decline more than Nasdaq Index $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$, but not in September 20th. $Ford(F)$ 's lowered its Q3 guidance unexpectedly made the whole manufacturing sector collapsed.Will it be a domino effect?The company disclosed the previous day ,Expects to have about 40,000 to 45,000 vehicles in inventory at end of third quarter lacking certain parts presently in short supplyTherefore, the EBIT of Q3 has been lowered to between $1.4 billion and $1.7 billion, verses the market consensus of $3 billion.In fact, Ford's supply chain management has done a good job since the pandemic, its gross profit margin of 22Q2 reached the highest 14% in recent years. Therefore, the current shortage of parts is indeed an important blow to its performance.Ford's performed fantastic last year, due to better expectation of electric vehicle business, especially its strong point-pickup truck, which is well received in North America, is expected to be deadline by the end of 2024, with seven electric vehicles on the market.However, E-Transit, which was originally expected to be listed in mid-2022, has not been listed, and was finally exposed to be listed in 2023. Its secondary market share price also experienced a decline in 2022, and almost halved in the middle of the year.It is necessary for investors to consider whether it is a problem at the "supply" or "demand".At the end of August, some media quoted the internal email sent by Ford to employees, saying that Ford planned to lay off about 3,000 employees, mainly affecting employees in the United States, Canada and India.Supply chain shortage needs redundancy? Doubt.The replacement of "oil cart o EV", should have caused problems at both ends of "supply" and "demand" to Ford.After all, this sign of Ford is also the same as last week$FedEx(FDX)$The "preliminary performance" warning is similar (Why FedEx's warning RECESSION again?), are lowering the performance guidance for the next quarter and the following fiscal year. This kind of uncertain practice at the company level is extremely damaging to market confidence.Yesterday, the entire manufacturing sector, except the aviation manufacturing industry, which has little to do with it, fell, such as$General Motors(GM)$$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$Wait. Ford, as a representative of the traditional manufacturing company, also has performance expectations, which further strengthens investors' expectation that the market will enter a "recession".Since the Q2 financial report season this year, from the retail industry $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ $Target(TGT)$, logistics $FedEx(FDX)$. Now, Ford, the auto industry, has pushed American policy makers step by step.Let's see what decision Jay Powell will make tonight.
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      Another Sign of Recession is Ford?
    • SG 88·09-21SG 88
      Guess it's time to "time" the market in order to take opportunity when the Fed hike up the rates.Whether 75 bps or 100 bps, I'll bet some stock price are rolling in sea of red.Look at those that you consider potential in your own portfolio.Buy when the price is right.Do not go all in as you can't pinpoint the lowest entry point. No one can.[Surprised] 
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    • Omega88·09-23 22:26Omega88
      $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ Ray Dalio Says 4.5% Interest Rate Would Sink Stocks by 20%!!Based on an interest rate of 4.5%, the present value discount effect and an assumed 10% decline in incomes, Dalio estimates these factors combined will create a 20% drop in equity prices on average, with longer-duration assets suffering the worst! Hence, I believe there will be more downside!! Tiger brothers and sisters, brace yourself for more volatility ahead!!@Daily_Discussion  @CaptainTiger  @TigerStars  @MillionaireTiger  
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    • Lionel8383·09-19Lionel8383

      Fed meeting rate hike likely to break the market

      The Federal Reserve will hold their September FOMC meeting on Sept 20-21, and the resultsof the hike will be revealed on Wednesday. CME FedWatch ToolCurrently, traders now expect a probability of 80% that the hike will be 75 basis points, while a 20% chance that the hike will be 100 basispoints. If the big hike is implemented, unfortunately the market has a lot more to fall. This will likely hurt companies earnings much more, and also continue to drive the dollar index higher. The charts showed some hopeAs of last Friday's trading session, the S&P 500 showed some hope of a red bullish reversal candle, in which the close was much higher above it's low. The Nasdaq index made a green ice cream bullish candle too.Looking at the S&P 500 30minute chart, 3,840 level was well defended, each time the market hit that level, it managed to gain and form a green candle subsequently. Eventually, the S&P 500 only shed 0.72%.S&P 500 daily S&P 500 30 minute Nasdaq dailyFor investors who can only buy and hold, I think it's much safer to wait for the outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday before adding to existing long positions. The volatility should continue for the next few days until the outcome and also if September is finally the "last big hike", and will the Fed finally realise that perhaps their soft landing might just turn out to be a crash landing for the economy. Lastly, as inflation is largely driven by the posteffects of the pandemic and the subsequent Russia-Ukraine war, unfortunately unless the war is over, the market bearish sentiment will still continue. But there are some signs that there might eventually be light at the end of the tunnel.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ @TigerStars 
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      Fed meeting rate hike likely to break the market
    • koolgal·09-20koolgal
      The recent rhetoric from Jerome Powell has been hawkish saying that the Feds "will keep at it until the job is done".The August CPI report showed that inflation is at 8.3%, slightly lower than July's number but still persistently high.  Inflation is like a bad boy that refuses to be controlled and the Feds are like a concerned parent trying to discipline him. We had a rude awakening last Tuesday when the US markets had its worst day since June 2020.  All 3 indexes closed lower with Nasdaq down 5.2%, the S&P500 fell 4.3% and Dow Jones dropped 3.9%.All eyes are now on the Feds meeting this week.  The markets have already priced in a 75 bp increase.  But what it matters most is the Feds comments.  If  it is still hawkish and worse still, if the increase is 100bp, the markets will almost certainly drop.   However if the comments are more dovish or a surprising 50bp increase, the markets will rejoice and jump.No matter what the outcome maybe, I will continue to dollar cost average into my favourite quality stocks like Apple, Microsoft.  These will continue to grow exponentially in the long term. With high inflation, it is also important to stay invested as not doing so, will see an erosion of the intrinsic value of my hard earned dollars.  I embrace volatility and see every market sell down as the best opportunity to buy heavily discounted quality stocks to hold long term.  This will help me achieve  my ultimate goal of FIRE - Financial Independence Retire Early!@MillionaireTiger  @TigerStars  @Tiger_chat  @TigerEvents  @CaptainTiger  
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