• monokey·06-28monokey
      Share
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    • Jer_Soul·06-28Jer_Soul
      Test posting
      113Comment
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    • Jer_Soul·06-27Jer_Soul
      [Miser] space test 
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    • monokey·06-27monokey
      Share. 
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    • Jo Tan·06-27Jo Tan
      $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$  $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ rose to $2.89 last week participating in a rally with most of the U.S. stocks. It left me with mixed feelings, wondering whether the company was doing better or traders were pumping the value up with the rally. My guess? Both. I think Grab's increasing presence in SEA is, for want of a better word, grabbing more attention. Skeptics swear its a lousy stock (a.k.a. Meme stock, Stonk, whatever you name it) and people who trade in it are Grab fanboys or maybe early investors who lived through the drop from $17. Whatever it is, it seems to me that Grab is gaining steam, for better or for worse (yesterday better la...). But we are still in the early days and for me, my investment strategy on Grab has not changed. I accumulate the stock on a bi-weekly basis, in small quantities and so far, this Strategy has served me well. My risks are relatively small but I hope to have a sizeable amount at a reasonably low average price of below $3 before its next earnings call. Sound reasonable? Do share your thoughts!@TigerStars  @MillionaireTiger  @CaptainTiger  
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    • DonWang·06-27DonWang
      It was Banks
      114Comment
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    • TigerEvents·06-24TigerEvents

      「awarded」Share Your Most Memorable Investments of Q1 2022

      Hi TigersRecently, we received a lot of Q1reviews written by Tiger Friends.Now let's see who won the prizeCongratulations to the following Tiger Friends for getting 2000Tiger Coins,​@SlowIncomeWe have distributed them to you. You can go to the Tiger Coin Center to check it out.Congratulations to the following Tiger Friends for getting 500Tiger Coins,@Sheng Soon,@pancherry,@JunioR,@Bunifa Latif,@Power1,@tytb,@Jolenechl,@Alubin,@heximania,@mster,@Jo Tan,@Vixenvixen,@Success88,@這次鹹煎餅了_8布起,@bs6969,@evepek,@duseve,@koolgal,@pekssWe have distributed them to you. You can go to the Tiger Coin Center to check it out.Congratulations to the following Tiger Friends for getting 100Tiger Coins,@MHh@Venus_MWe have distributed them to you. You can go to the Tiger Coin Center to check it out.​​In addition, All Tigers who leave your opinions in the comment section will receive 30 Tiger Coins.💰💰💰💰💰💰Thanks for reading…good luck and good trading!
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      「awarded」Share Your Most Memorable Investments of Q1 2022
    • MaverickTiger·06-24MaverickTiger

      FedEx Gives the Hope for next Quarter?

      $FedEx(FDX)$T released the earnings of fourth quarter fiscal year 2022 as of the end of March. With the excellent guidance of the new fiscal year, the stock gained a3% in post-hour trading.For Q4 results,Revenue was US $24.39 billion, an increase of 8% year-on-year, slightly missed market consensus of $24.57 billion;Among them, income from express delivery business was 11.94 billion, which was basically the same as the market expectation of 11.95 billion US dollars; freight revenue was US $2.76 billion, better than the market consensus of US $2.51 billion;Non-GAAP's operating profit was US $2.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and it is expected to be US $2.28 billion;EBITDA is 2.47 billion US dollars, expected to be 3.30 billion US dollars, and net profit is 1.80 billion US dollars, up 32% year-on-year, expected to be 1.81 billion US dollars, which is basically flat;Non-GAAP EPS is $6.87, expected to be $6.88While the diluted EPS was US $6.87, which was flat than expected.Capital expenditure reached $2.38 billion, up 41.7% year-on-year.FedEx's business this quarter has several characteristics:Yield for parcels rise because of rising cost in supply chain and transportation.The revenue of a single package in the United States was 22.08 US dollars, up 20% year-on-year, and also exceeded the expected 20.56 US dollars; After exchange rate adjustment, the individual income of international parcels was US $59.8, up 17% year-on-year, exceeding the expected US $55.6. The impact of the price increase will continue, and at the same time, it will bring higher income to the company.oThe volume dropped significantly.The average daily parcels of express delivery were 5.82 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11% and less than the expected 6.16 million. Among them, the average daily parcels in the United States were 2.99 million, down 8.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.17 million; The daily average number of international parcels was 2.82 million, down 13% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.98 million. Judging from this value, the domestic performance recovery in the United States is better than that in the world. As the income brought by the increase in freight can cover the decline in package volume, the overall performance is still rising.The freight recovered rapidly, Freight revenue was the biggest part of the overall exceeding expectations, with revenue per Hundredweight of US $35.6, up 30% year-on-year, setting the highest growth rate in recent years and higher than the expected US $31.8. Operating profit margin of freight business increased by 570 basis points to 21.8% due to the increased marginal effect brought by price increase.Among the expenditure items, the cost of shelf insurance, employee wages and purchasing and transportation rates all increased to a large extent, which brought about an impact of 130 million US dollars to the company. The company introduced a new 401 (k) plan for new employees in January 2022, replacing the original pension plan. In addition, capital expenditure on automation has also increased. At the same time,Capital expenditure is expected to reach $6.8 billion in the coming year.As for the performance guidance for the next fiscal year 2023, the company also made some interesting statements.Because FedEx has to make a certain "mark-to-market" (MTM) adjustment in accounting calculation methods,  such as employee pension, investment business adjustment, etc. At the same time, the company can't confirm the effective tax rate, so it can't give guidance.However, it also provides certain profit guidance, which is before MTM adjustment. It is expected that the diluted EPS in fiscal year 2023 will be between 22.45 and 24.45 US dollars, and the profit margin will expand after adjustment, which is also a relatively large range.However, the whole figure was also higher than the previous market expectation of $22.6.The reason why there is so much room for adjustment and relatively "rich" conditions are set is to leave some room for the uncertainty of performance changes.After all, the current inflation cycle makes the whole logistics industry full of great uncertainty. Industrial activity has been stable in May, but according to the PMI data of the United States in June, the initial value has dropped sharply, and inventory replenishment is slowing down, which will restrain freight demand to some extent.The change of pension plan may bring more costs to the company in the short term, but in the long run, the new pension plan will reduce the long-term debt of the company and benefit the long-term profit margin.For shareholders, the best news is to continue to overweight repurchase. The company bought back $2.2 billion in fiscal year 2022, while it plans to buy back $1.5 billion in the next six months.
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      FedEx Gives the Hope for next Quarter?
    • monokey·06-24monokey
      Share
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    • monokey·06-23monokey
      Share
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    • Ermmmmmm·06-22Ermmmmmm
      What are your worst trades? 
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    • TsLaPlTr·06-22TsLaPlTr
      hi what the !! nio is very low nbuy ni mo. rjejr right now!!
      41Comment
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    • monokey·06-22monokey
      Share
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    • Yishun123·06-22Yishun123
      $Apple(AAPL)$  Getting better😆
      184Comment
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    • monokey·06-21monokey
      Share it. 
      96Comment
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    • Shevarnee13·06-21Shevarnee13
      Started accumulating apple share since tiger brokers already gave out a free share as a referral bonusat that time. Best decision ive made to continue accumulating shares for my long term portfolio. Safest investment IMO! 
      195Comment
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    • monokey·06-20monokey
      Share it. 
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    • DonWang·06-20DonWang
      Losing it all
      105Comment
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    • MicandPotter·06-19MicandPotter
      Buying grab shares at 11.89
      143Comment
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    • Yishun123·06-19Yishun123
    • SR050321·04-02SR050321
      My most memorable investment for Q1 2022is when i started to shift my focus from trading to investing, i am still learning, because until now i still have a habit to sell off if already green (just like plant flower, the momentflower buds come out, I already eyeing to chop it) [Facepalm] i sold my $SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ the moment it was green with thinking buyback when low, the next day it was jump up higher [LOL] I no longer fear of shortterm loss, i started to buy SG bank, Reits and ETF which actually quite resistant during down turn, in fact when i look at my holding now, i look which one go down dip dip to add more, but it seems nothing much go down. So i started to look into US market to expand my portfolio. Q1 2022 is when i built my solid foundation on my investing journey. [Happy] 
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    • MarketObserv·04-09MarketObserv

      I lost 78% within 1 week of purchase in a Russian equity fund. Here are the lessons learnt.

      I bought a Russian equity fund(JRS listed on the London stock exchange) when the Russian MOEX stock index crashed over 40% in a single day after Russia invaded Ukraine. What happened a week later can best be described by this picture. Money on fire The fund lost 78% of its value from my purchase price within 1 week. I doubt anyone can beat this loss record in terms of speed and percentage loss. I am a real champion in this regard. If the market is making you feel like an idiot this year, then my champion record would be a good consolation to you. Money lost in such speed and magnitude carries lessons to be learnt. I looked back at the reasons I bought the equity fund in the first place. Odds are on my side for a quick rebound after a 45% crash in a single day. Buying when others are panicking is an edge that never dies. The booming commodity prices are a tailwind to Russia's commodity-driven economy. Russia's stock index's bottom ranking among global stock indices will give the eventual rebound more room to move up. After all, the top 2 performing stock indices this year, Brazil iBovespa and Saudi Tadawul, have similar commodity-driven economies like Russia. Valuation of Russian stocks in general was very attractive. It was easy to find blue-chip Russian stocks with a single-digit PE ratio and a dividend yield of more than 6%. A diversified fund benchmarked to a stock index does not drop to zero. Individual stocks can drop to zero but not a diversified portfolio of value stocks. Chances of recovery are high, particularly when the price is down so much and the valuation is so cheap. Besides, stock indices tend to go up over the long term. The reasons were valid at the time of purchase on 24Feb2022, Thursday. However, the turn of events made me very worried. The headlines news I read on the following Monday were alarming. Western powers announced sanctions on Russia and froze Russian assets. Russia's foreign exchange reserves were frozen by G7 countries. I am not trying to defend Russia. I am trying to put myself in Russia's shoes and anticipate how they will react. Having your reserves frozen is like having your hard-earned savings taken away just at the moment when you need to use the savings for emergency use. How will you react to hostile parties who did this to you? If you could, retaliation will be a natural response. If Russia were to retaliate, my original assumption that a stock index does not drop to zero is false. In fact, stock indices did fall to zero in financial history before. Where did it happen? In Russia where investors lost EVERYTHING when the communists took over in 1917. The stock exchange remained closed for the next 75 years. The investments were gone for good. 10000-times gain for an investor is useless if his assets are confiscated. An investor's worst nightmare is when his private property rights are violated. Cheap valuation, buying on the cheap is irrelevant if you have to question whether your property rights are going to be respected. Indeed, my deepest fears were realized as an investor when I read this headline news before the London stock market opened on Monday. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-seize-foreigners-funds-retaliation-ria-2022-02-26/ I am not sure if Russia will really carry out this threat since the West can strike back with greater force by extending the freeze on Russian assets into outright confiscation. Several western businesses and well-known brands have exited the Russian market since the Ukraine invasion started. I am sceptical that they are doing this to show support for Ukraine. It is probably they are fearful of what will happen to their own assets that are under Russian jurisdiction. The Russian Rouble crashed 30% against USD on Monday morning(28Feb2022). The crashing rouble and the risk of Russian retaliation were enough to convince me to cut my risk exposure to the Russian equity fund that I bought only a few days ago. I changed my mind about the purchase overnight. I started selling when the London market opened on Monday and by Tuesday, I had cut my position down by almost 85%. Within those 2 days alone, the fund dropped 47.1%. The fund then dropped another 50% in the next 3 days after I cut my position. Even though the original position size was small and the position was cut fast, the amount of money lost was still painful given the magnitude and speed of the fall. With the benefit of hindsight, I would have done better if I had simply sold everything on the first day when the market opened. One lesson learnt is that in times of war and political upheaval, the normal rules do not apply. As an investor, it makes me uncomfortable to see property rights being violated. To the Russian people, the outside world has become uninvestable because their assets have been frozen. For foreigners, Russia has become uninvestable due to sanctions and fear of Russian retaliation. In fact, Russia has already started to respond in kind to the sanctions imposed. Foreigners are banned from selling Russian assets temporarily. Russian bond coupon payments to foreigners have been banned. The ordinary Russian man in the street suffered worse in this economic war. Russian Ruble has depreciated by about 44% against USD in the past 2 weeks (21Feb2022 to 4Mar2022). With the Russian economy cut off from the outside world by sanctions, the supply chain disruption will drive up daily expenses through goods shortages. It is a very hard time for the people with massive wealth destruction and fast-rising inflation happening at the same time. In this kind of hostile environment, financial assets no longer count as wealth because they can be forcefully taken away unjustly but legally. Wealth can be destroyed in quick time through massive currency devaluation within days. One still has to contend with ever-rising daily expenses caused by goods shortages and currency devaluation. You can be an ultra-rich person today and lose most of your wealth tomorrow with no time to react. In this situation, the best asset is human capital. Each individual has his own set of knowledge and skillset to earn a living. No one can take his knowledge away. I read that Jewish parents, particularly asset-rich ones, who witnessed the Holocaust and had their assets unjustly taken away by the Nazis encouraged their children to become skilled, high-paid professionals because no rogue dictator can rob assets that reside inside their heads. To survive in the worst-case financial scenario when a person loses 100% of his financial assets, he should be able to answer this question with confidence: What special expertise and skill-set do I have to be of service to other people to use my labour to earn an honest living? Unfortunately, age and bad health will catch up to all of us eventually. We will lose our ability to work eventually. This is unavoidable. One solution is to be kind and generous to as many people as you can while you are able to so that one day when you really need help, they will return the favour. Even if they turn out to be ungrateful, the process of being kind and helpful will make a person happier. There is nothing to lose in being kind. At the very least, do not be mean. Always treat other people courteously with respect no matter who they are. Most people will be helpful if it does not involve too much sacrifice. To be fair, if a person has not put in enough sacrifice himself to help others in the first place, he should not expect too much in return. If he expects help when he becomes a useless burden, then be a parent (but try your best to be self-reliant as far as possible). Again, there is no guarantee that children will be filial but the process of raising them is worth the sacrifice even if the outcome is bad. I have never regretted being a parent. During chaotic times when rogue governments confiscate your assets, the worst form of asset to own is real estate, particularly in hostile territory. The illiquid real estate is stuck in unfriendly territory and impossible to move out. I hope fellow Singaporeans will bear this risk in mind before they commit too much of their net worth snapping up properties in a neighbouring country with a history of testy relationships with us. Some financial assets are more useful than others in chaotic times. In the past, we have physical Gold and Silver. Today, we have digital cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. These assets share some common characteristics. They cannot be confiscated by central authorities. Their value cannot be destroyed by currency devaluation. I personally prefer Bitcoin because it is in digital form and is easier to handle logistically than Gold. Earlier, I wrote that if Bitcoin existed during Holocaust, it would be a wonderful asset for rich Jews to protect their wealth. I believe Gold/Silver and decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin should have a place in our portfolio since the risk of a Russian-like crisis hitting us cannot be dismissed, however unlikely. You never know.
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      I lost 78% within 1 week of purchase in a Russian equity fund. Here are the lessons learnt.
    • pancherry·04-13pancherry
      I started trading in stocks only in February 2022I have always wanted to buy stocks but I was concerned about the risk.Finally, after a lot of YouTube videos, there came the Russia Ukraine war, and stock prices plummeted. And I started my investment journey.The very first shares I bought were the ones I believe have the strong fundamentals and values. I was interested to do long term investment and mainly wanted to focus on Tech stocks as potential growth stocks because most businesses adopted digital transformation during Covid. And as a Software Engineer, I believe the IT industry will continue to grow My very first stock I bought on 24 Feb was $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  because I trust its business.  But the price was not cheap, I bought at 2598.34. Then I bought $Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$  also not that cheap, at $203.6. After that, I continued buying $Microsoft(MSFT)$  Amazon and SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust.At first,  I was afraid of the risk and bought as fractional shares. Then as the Russia Ukraine war continued, the price kept dropping, and I bought more at the dips. And at one time, I managed to get Tesla at 795.82. Now it's become a habit of mine to monitor the stock market every day, looking for opportunity to buy stocks at under value. Hope to grow My portfolio more and gain more profits. 
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    • MaverickTiger·04-22MaverickTiger

      What Goldman Sachs suggest to notice in this earning season?

      ——"A list of high gross profit and nice fundamental stocks" Recently, $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ equity investment strategists stressed the importance of pricing power for companies given a four-decade high in inflation and rising commodities prices. They stressed earnings risks are to the downside for the rest of the year and management commentary will be particularly important this earnings season given current uncertainty. What kind of information shall investors pay attention to? First, outlook for economic growth and consumer demand. The possibility of a recession has been a common theme in recent client discussions, and the yield curve is implying a one in three probability of a recession in 2023. However, our economists believe a recession is far from inevitable due partly to healthy household and corporate balance sheets .. We will monitor management commentary for broader signs of declining consumer demand. Second, inflation and profit margins. Pricing power will become increasingly important in the face of continued inflation and cost pressures. In order to assess the sustainability of margins, we will monitor the ability of firms to pass increased costs through to consumers. Third, business exposure to geopolitical risks and investment plans to improve resiliency. Pandemic lockdowns and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have reinforced the need for firms to evaluate their global exposures. Some firms have taken actions to strengthen their supply chain resilience .. Furthermore, firms that have recently halted business in Russia will likely need to take impairment charges to account for asset write downs Below, we conclude a list that GS recommend in each sector with the best and worst pricing power, aka, with high and stable gross margins. We'll see if they outperform after the earning season. $(GOOGL)$ $(CABO)$ $(XLY)$ $(TPR)$ $(PVH)$ $(LULU)$ $(ORLY)$ $(TNL)$ $(SKX)$ $(NKE)$ $(AAP)$ $(HOG)$ $(BURL)$ $(LKQ)$ $(XLP)$ $(PM)$ $(KO)$ $(XLE)$ $(BKR)$ $(SLB)$ $(HAL)$ $(XLV)$ $(EW)$ $(ALGN)$ $(JNJ)$ $(ZTS)$ $(COO)$ $(WAT)$ $(MTD)$ $(XLI)$ $(CSGP)$ $(NDSN)$ $(TRU)$ $(GGG)$ $(VRSK)$ $(SNA)$ $(SPGI)$ $(ROL)$ $(CTAS)$ $(NVT)$ $(DOV)$ $(CW)$ $(FBHS)$ $(DCI)$ $(ITT)$ $(TT)$ $(XLK)$ $(DLB)$ $(CDNS)$ $(ADBE)$ $(SNPS)$ $(ORCL)$ $(FTNT)$ $(WDAY)$ $(PAYX)$ $(CSCO)$ $(MPWR)$ $(XLB)$ $(CTVA)$
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      What Goldman Sachs suggest to notice in this earning season?
    • MilkTeaBro·04-02MilkTeaBro

      My Q1 2022 quarterly review 1季度复盘

      Q1 2022 has finished, I would like to submit my Q1 quarterly financial report to Tiger Brokers.Personal profile: a salary worker, small conservative retail investor, live in Singapore.Tiger account P&L analyst showed RoR 2.99%.Top released gain: HPHTop released loss: Aztech, not really sold out, to contorl position and risk. Top floating gain stocks is Wilmar.Top floating loss stock is HST. Tiger account analyst did not add dividend, since I am conservative retail investor, I main positions are on ETF, dividend, and blue-chip stocks. Dividend income is important to my portfolio. Here is secured dividend income up to today.There is huge fluctuation in stock market in 1Q 2022. I added 30K SGD stocks on $上海实业环境(BHK.SI)$ , $新科工程(S63.SI)$ , China Everbright Water , $中国航油(新加坡)股份有限公司(G92.SI)$ and $新兴市场ETF-Vanguard MSCI(VWO)$ during the Russia and Ukraine conflict. I did not add on $Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$ because I held a few emerging market stocks funds and ETF, they are overlapped on $腾讯控股(00700)$ , Alibaba and Meituan. So, I need not to add HST purposely. I restrained my exposure to Internet Tech as I am a conservative investor.Allocation is key factor for long term investment journey. And it defined our return and risk level.My allocation is as below,A Singapore HDB 4 room apartment, no house loan. Peter Lynchy said, you need ask yourself before you invest in stock, do you have a house?Singapore Government Saving bond, 110K SGD, average yield in 10 years is around 2%. Singapore Saving Bond is available for early redeem, no penalty, one month notice.Dollardex platform, major asset were low risk bond and emerging market stock Funds 150K SGDTiger account asset value 110K SGD.Cash was around my family 1 year living expense.Outlook, I am still optimist on Emerging market ETF, China and HK P/E were at lowest history position area. But S&P 500 should hold, there is uncertainty on US market as Stagflation and interest hike. I added 30K SGD on stocks in Q1 which was not original plan, it reduced my investment budget in rest of 2022. I will add on VWO or Tracker of HK stock fund in the proper time.Below is 'VWO' fact sheet. @TigerStars @爱发红包的虎妞 @TigerEvents 
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      My Q1 2022 quarterly review 1季度复盘
    • TigerEvents·04-12TigerEvents

      🏆【Events】Share Your Most Memorable Investments of Q1 2022

      Share your most memorable investments & Win Tiger Coins. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to win a surprise gift.🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯Recently, we received a lot of Q1reviews written by Tiger Friends. Congratulations to the following Tiger Friends for getting 2000Tiger Coins, @MarketObserv @MHh We have distributed them to you. You can go to the Tiger Coin Center to check it out. Congratulations to the following Tiger Friends for getting 500Tiger Coins, @Bonta,@moneymagnet,@Kaixiang,@RDPD富爸穷爸,@MilkTeaBro,@ZeroG,@Big Cat,@Furore,@Joker_Smile,@Ultrahisham,@SR050321,@tigjun21,@Venus_M,@lolzies,@Dancingbunny,@StickyRice,@chaicka,@Stingaling,@Pucca,@Brocco,@Cris0,@willwees,@ohsay,@Winstonlou We have distributed them to you. You can go to the Tiger Coin Center to check it out. In addition,Congratulations to the followingTiger Friends for getting Tiger gift @MarketObserv I lost 78% within 1 week of purchase in a Russian equity fund. Here are the lessons MarketObserv @SR050321  Share Your Most Memorable Investments @MilkTeaBro My Q1 2022 quarterly review 1季度复盘 @RDPD富爸穷爸 Many people said mr market is the best teacher in the investment @Joker_Smile Most Memorable Investment in Q1 2022. @MHh My most memorable investment for this first quarter really has to be $TENCENT(00700)$ @ZeroG What I have learned in the first quarter of 2022 @moneymagnet Share Your Most Memorable Investments @Big Cat What was your most memorable investment in the first quarter of 2022? @tigjun21  My most memorable investment Please contact Tiger staff Susu to collect the prizes and inform her the receiving information (name, address and telephone number) WeChat: itiger2014 E-mail: zhangwansu@itiger.com WhatsApp: +8615611293229 The event is still ongoing, participate in the event for the chance to win Tiger Coins and Tiger gifts. Reviewing your investment portfolio is one of the most crucial parts of managing your money. If left unchecked, your investments may deviate from your original plan.As the first quarter of 2022 comes to an end, let's share your most memorable investments! Here are our topics: What was your most memorable investment in the first quarter of 2022? (stocks, saving account, real estate ..) What was your return for the first quarter of 2022? What did you learn from it? What is your investment plan for the remainder of the year? 🎁 Reward All Tigers who leave your opinions in the comment section will receive 30 Tiger Coins. The Tigers with the hottest comments will be awarded 100 Tiger Coins. All Tigers who write posts containing more than 300 characters will receive 500 Tiger Coins. Tigers who write posts of the highest quality will receive 2,000 Tiger Coins. Make a post on the TOPIC page >> In addition, you will get a chance to win a surprise gift.🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯 ⏰ Event Time The deadline for this event is 24:00 on 30 April 2022 Tag your friends, join the discussion, and win coins together!
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      🏆【Events】Share Your Most Memorable Investments of Q1 2022
    • MaverickTiger·06-24MaverickTiger

      FedEx Gives the Hope for next Quarter?

      $FedEx(FDX)$T released the earnings of fourth quarter fiscal year 2022 as of the end of March. With the excellent guidance of the new fiscal year, the stock gained a3% in post-hour trading.For Q4 results,Revenue was US $24.39 billion, an increase of 8% year-on-year, slightly missed market consensus of $24.57 billion;Among them, income from express delivery business was 11.94 billion, which was basically the same as the market expectation of 11.95 billion US dollars; freight revenue was US $2.76 billion, better than the market consensus of US $2.51 billion;Non-GAAP's operating profit was US $2.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, and it is expected to be US $2.28 billion;EBITDA is 2.47 billion US dollars, expected to be 3.30 billion US dollars, and net profit is 1.80 billion US dollars, up 32% year-on-year, expected to be 1.81 billion US dollars, which is basically flat;Non-GAAP EPS is $6.87, expected to be $6.88While the diluted EPS was US $6.87, which was flat than expected.Capital expenditure reached $2.38 billion, up 41.7% year-on-year.FedEx's business this quarter has several characteristics:Yield for parcels rise because of rising cost in supply chain and transportation.The revenue of a single package in the United States was 22.08 US dollars, up 20% year-on-year, and also exceeded the expected 20.56 US dollars; After exchange rate adjustment, the individual income of international parcels was US $59.8, up 17% year-on-year, exceeding the expected US $55.6. The impact of the price increase will continue, and at the same time, it will bring higher income to the company.oThe volume dropped significantly.The average daily parcels of express delivery were 5.82 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11% and less than the expected 6.16 million. Among them, the average daily parcels in the United States were 2.99 million, down 8.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.17 million; The daily average number of international parcels was 2.82 million, down 13% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.98 million. Judging from this value, the domestic performance recovery in the United States is better than that in the world. As the income brought by the increase in freight can cover the decline in package volume, the overall performance is still rising.The freight recovered rapidly, Freight revenue was the biggest part of the overall exceeding expectations, with revenue per Hundredweight of US $35.6, up 30% year-on-year, setting the highest growth rate in recent years and higher than the expected US $31.8. Operating profit margin of freight business increased by 570 basis points to 21.8% due to the increased marginal effect brought by price increase.Among the expenditure items, the cost of shelf insurance, employee wages and purchasing and transportation rates all increased to a large extent, which brought about an impact of 130 million US dollars to the company. The company introduced a new 401 (k) plan for new employees in January 2022, replacing the original pension plan. In addition, capital expenditure on automation has also increased. At the same time,Capital expenditure is expected to reach $6.8 billion in the coming year.As for the performance guidance for the next fiscal year 2023, the company also made some interesting statements.Because FedEx has to make a certain "mark-to-market" (MTM) adjustment in accounting calculation methods,  such as employee pension, investment business adjustment, etc. At the same time, the company can't confirm the effective tax rate, so it can't give guidance.However, it also provides certain profit guidance, which is before MTM adjustment. It is expected that the diluted EPS in fiscal year 2023 will be between 22.45 and 24.45 US dollars, and the profit margin will expand after adjustment, which is also a relatively large range.However, the whole figure was also higher than the previous market expectation of $22.6.The reason why there is so much room for adjustment and relatively "rich" conditions are set is to leave some room for the uncertainty of performance changes.After all, the current inflation cycle makes the whole logistics industry full of great uncertainty. Industrial activity has been stable in May, but according to the PMI data of the United States in June, the initial value has dropped sharply, and inventory replenishment is slowing down, which will restrain freight demand to some extent.The change of pension plan may bring more costs to the company in the short term, but in the long run, the new pension plan will reduce the long-term debt of the company and benefit the long-term profit margin.For shareholders, the best news is to continue to overweight repurchase. The company bought back $2.2 billion in fiscal year 2022, while it plans to buy back $1.5 billion in the next six months.
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      FedEx Gives the Hope for next Quarter?
    • TigerEvents·05-10TigerEvents

      Share Your Holdings & Win Tiger Coins

      Hi Tigers We would like to invite you to share your holdings,and you will win Tiger Coins. In addition, you will obtain a chance to win a Tiger gift.🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯 On Monday, $DJIA(.DJI)$ dropeed 1.99%,the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped 3.2%. The tech-heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ lost 4.29%, off more than 27% from 52-week highs. According to analysist insights, Monday's decline was driven by fears of increasing inflation hitting markets across the board. Stocks in the technology sector were particularly hard hit. $Apple(AAPL)$ lost3.32%, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ fell 5.21%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell 9%. What is the performance of your stock today? 📢Activity Details All Tigers who leave comments on the following post will receive 30 Tiger Coins. The Tigers with the most popular comments will be awarded 188 or 888 Tiger Coins. Furthermore, you will have the opportunity to win a Tiger gift. 💡How to share positions? From your account holdings interface, you can click "Share" on each of your stock holdings. Don't forget to take a screenshot of your position and post it in the comments below. There are tons of coins awaiting you!​⏰[Duration] Today - 16th, May Please leave a message in the comments section of this post and tell us about your stock performance today. Make sure you include a screenshot of your position as well. There are tons of coins awaiting you!
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    • MaverickTiger·04-08MaverickTiger

      Why HomeDepot pounded while Costco in record high?

      In recent days, the performance of companies in the super-sector of US stock retailers is eye-catching,$Costco(COST)$,$Wal-Mart(WMT)$,$Macy's(M)$,$Target(TGT)$,$Dollar General(DG)$,$Dollar Tree(DLTR)$ all of them are outperformed the market, and some hit record highs. Our article at the beginning of last month High Inflation? Top Retail Dealers for Watch has revealedseveral points: 1. High inflation makes price increases a matter of course. As the last link of retail, Shangchao can eat more price differences; 2. The pressure on the supply side makes the frequency of consumption higher, which also raises more consumer demand; 3. The combination of traditional offline and online retailing gives Shangchao more path choices and adds the application scenario of "membership system". Retails isquite a big category, including COST and DLTR, which take the low-end route, and M and DLTR, which also have high-end department stores$Nordstrom(JWN)$These daily consumer goods are now in a very prosperous stage in terms of demand and supply. But there are exceptions! Supermarkets related to "houses" have not gained more favor from investors in the near future.For example,$Home Depot(HD)$,$Wayfair(W)$$Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$$Lowe's(LOW)$. Among them, BBBY is a stock that retail investors prefer to play games, and its volatility is relatively large. From the physical point of view, the performance of this kind of home retail supermarket is far inferior to that of other types of retailers. Since March 21,$Lowe's(LOW)$Total down-14.1%,$Home Depot(HD)$Total down-10.66%,$Wayfair(W)$The total fell by-10. 38%; In contrast,$Costco(COST)$With an increase of 8.25%,$Wal-Mart(WMT)$The increase was 7.3%. What caused the poor performance of real estate retail? The important reason is to raise interest rates.As the benchmark interest rate rises, so will the interest rate on housing loans, which will restrict real estate transactions. The market thinks that the related expenditure of housing will be restrained in the future. The Fed keeps turning eagles, and the pace of raising interest rates and shrinking the table is likely to become more and more radical in the coming months, which will hit investors' confidence in real estate-related assets in advance. Of course, the assets of household companies are not always negatively correlated with interest rates, but the market sentiment at present is not good, which makes investors withdraw one after another. There is also a positive correlation between them in history. In addition, raw materials and logistics still have an impact on the company's performance. When the cost of raw materials is rising and the logistics efficiency is not high, the growth of sales of household products will stagnate. However, household products are not classified like other necessities of life, and most of them need to be used in combination. For example, wood boards and paint. You may need to buy it at the same time. Previously, in February, a short-term shortage of paint will also affect the sales of the whole household products. At present, the whole real estate construction sector has not performed as well as the market since this year$SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF(XHB)$​​ ​At present, household supermarkets have also been "downgraded" or "target price lowered" by major investment banks. With the end of the last pre-interest rate hike cycle in Q1 this year, the market expectation in the future will become more conservative.
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      Why HomeDepot pounded while Costco in record high?
    • RDPD富爸穷爸·04-01RDPD富爸穷爸
      Many people said mr market is the best teacher in the investment/trading world. If you are right, you get richly rewarded, if you are wrong you get a slap and a wake up call.  What I had learnt from Q1 2022 : My win and my lost - FB diagonal spread $Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$ After the market dips back in Sep-Oct 2021, I took a position in FB via option using diagonal spread strategy sometimes in mid Oct. This is an investment grade option strategy I like to use when S&P is on an uptrend. (It is equivalent to owning 100 shares and selling covered calls. Instead of shares, I used ITM call as substitute).  You may ask why I use option instead of shares? This boils down to cost. Owning 100 shares of FB will cost me roughly $32K during that time period (FB is at 320 per share) while the DSS costs me $5.5K which is a fraction of 32K. Another advantage of using DSS is my max loss is accounted for, i.e 5.5K. I know I won't lose more than my debit entry and I could sleep well. To keep it short, I had my long call @ 280 strike (delta around 60-70) with DTE 6 months (Apr 2022) at the point of entry with my short call around $340 strike expiring in a few weeks. The plan is to keep rolling the short call (I use 2-4 weeks DTE for short call) once every few weeks to collect premium until this option expire in Apr 2022. This is a lucrative business as I will get paid for 6 months by rolling the short calls if the share price stay above my long call. It was good until 2 Feb AMC earning release came out worse than expected, FB share price drops from roughly $320 to $240 overnight. My profits turned into loss as my long call $280 strike is way above $240 share price. On 3 Feb when market open, I close my DSS to salvage any value left as it will not have enough time to turnaround given my contract will expire soon. Lesson learned 1) Choose a shorter DTE to deploy DSS to avoid earning release) 2) Open DSS only after earning release 3) Choose an index or ETF to deploy DSS since they are not affected by earning release  My 2022 plan going forward is to keep deploying relevant options strategies and continue to find/stay invested in companies with pricing power for the long haul and keep learning from gurus like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger etc to gain more wisdom from their selfless share 😊
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    • TigerEvents·06-01TigerEvents

      💰Share Your Monthly Performance& Win Tiger Coins

      Hi Tigers,We would like to invite you to share your monthly performance, and you will win Tiger Coins. In addition, you will obtain a chance to win tons of coins.Now we are entering June 2022. Today is the first day of June. The past month has been an exciting and noteworthy period for all of our investors. It is a good time to review your trades to learn from your mistakes and improve your trading plan.📢Activity DetailsAll Tigers who leave comments on the following post will receive 30 Tiger Coins.The Tigers with the most popular comments will be awarded 188 or 888 Tiger Coins💡How to share monthly performance?From your account holdings interface, you can click "Analysis" to find your P&LAnalysisDon't forget to take a screenshot of monthly performance and post it in the comments below.There are tons of coins awaiting you!​​⏰DurationToday - 9th, JunePlease leave a message in the comments section of this post and tell us about your stock performance in May. Make sure you include a screenshot of your monthly performance as well. There are tons of coins awaiting you!
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    • Brocco·04-01Brocco
      Buying AlIBABA when it falls to half of its all time high and looking at it falls even lower and lower. lesson learn, stocks are very uncertain and can keep falling, need beware and careful. It's also another skill to learn when to cut losses or buy more to average down the cost. Currently still holding and hopefully it will return since it's still a big Chinese company.
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    • TigerEvents·03-31TigerEvents

      🏆【Events】Share Your Most Memorable Investments of Q1 2022

      Share your most memorable investments & Win Tiger Coins. Additionally, you will have the opportunity to win a surprise gift.🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯 Reviewing your investment portfolio is one of the most crucial parts of managing your money. If left unchecked, your investments may deviate from your original plan. As the first quarter of 2022 comes to an end, let's share your most memorable investments!Here are our topics: What was your most memorable investment in the first quarter of 2022? (stocks, saving account, real estate ..) What was your return for the first quarter of 2022? What did you learn from it? What is your investment plan for the remainder of the year? 🎁 Reward All Tigers who leave your opinions in the comment section will receive 30 Tiger Coins. The Tigers with the hottest comments will be awarded 100 Tiger Coins. All Tigers who write posts containing more than 300 characters will receive 500 Tiger Coins. Tigers who write posts of the highest quality will receive 2,000 Tiger Coins. Make a post on the TOPIC page >> In addition, you will get a chance to win a surprise gift.🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯🐯 ⏰ Event Time The deadline for this event is 24:00 on 30 April 2022 Tag your friends, join the discussion, and win coins together!
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      🏆【Events】Share Your Most Memorable Investments of Q1 2022
    • MaverickTiger·05-06MaverickTiger

      E-commerce is at stake?

      When $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ tumbled 14% after the Q1 earnings last week,  we believe investors worried about its growth and profit consistancy. Revaluation shall be on the way. This week, some other e-commerce companies performed the same, by miss the estimates and lowering guidances. Investors could confirm  a change in e-commerce industry. The online retail ETF $ProShares Online Retail ETF(ONLN)$ fell 7.9% in a single day yesterday, while its constituents showed a substantial retracement. Merchant online retail platform, from Canada$Shopify(SHOP)$It fell by 17.7%; The largest home e-commerce company in North America$Wayfair(W)$It fell by 16.7%; E-commerce platform started with handicraft products$Etsy(ETSY)$It fell by 13.7%; The largest second-hand platform trading website$eBay(EBAY)$It fell by 9.2%; The largest used car e-commerce website in North America$Carvana Co.(CVNA)$It fell by 14.8%; Fashion e-commerce platform including luxury goods$Farfetch Ltd(FTCH)$It fell by 9.4%; The largest pet e-commerce platform$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$It fell by 8.2%; In addition, there is a decline $Global-E Online Ltd.(GLBE)$10.4%,$Poshmark, Inc.(POSH)$Down 12.1%,$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$Down 8.8%,$Blue Apron Holdings Inc.(APRN)$Down 7.5% and so on. How did online retail stocks, once hot, become the target of public criticism overnight? We believe that, Under the background of raising interest rates, investors' worries about stagflation are affecting the retail industry step by step. The e-commerce has gradually used up it's luck in the pandemic. Therefore, the profit prospects of e-commerce enterprises are being questioned, and the valuations pushed up during the epidemic may have to be returned. Taking Amazon as an example, Q1 revenue growth slowed down significantly, and the growth rate of three-party sellers fell to single digits for the first time, while The year-on-year growth rate of self-operated e-commerce retail is declining At the same time, the expected reduction also makes investors think that the e-commerce business may enter "negative growth" in 2022. As a result, Amazon's biggest source of cash flow may face the biggest headwind in history in the next few quarters. Blue: Online stores; Red: Third-party seller What impact does the "sudden" inflation that lasted for half a year have on e-commerce? First of all, the rising energy cost increases the logistics cost. For example, from April 28th, Amazon will charge 5% fuel and inflation surcharge to American e-commerce companies using Fulfillment by Amazon ("FBA") in order to alleviate the problem of rising costs caused by rising oil prices and inflation. This is also the first time in history. Second, the ex-factory price of industrial finished products has risen.It is not friendly to small and medium-sized businesses under the non-remote direct supply mode (M2C). They rely more and more on intensive platforms to reduce costs by scale effect, and some even withdraw from competition directly. Third, the price rises too fast, not only decrease the consumption demand of sensitive consumers It will further accelerate consumers' demand for wage growth and push up the spiral of "wage-price". If wages reach a bottleneck of rising, demand will be reduced, resulting in an embarrassing stagflation situation in which only price increases do not increase demand. In addition, e-commerce in different sub-sectors will also be affected by industry changes. For example, e-commerce companies in housing and household will be affected by rising loan interest rates, as people reduce the demand for housing replacement. In terms of valuation, some companies that used to rely on high growth to obtain extremely high valuation multiples are also the companies with the strongest callback this year. At present, companies that exceed the industry benchmark Amazon's 2.88 times market sales ratio and 38 times P/E ratio still face the risk of continuing callback. What's more, Amazon itself is also undergoing the test of profitability. Before share split, Amazon was mainly a game between large institutions, and pricing also depended on institutions and quantitative strategies. Individual investors should pay close attention to whether those funds that hold Amazon for a long time will reduce their holdings in the future (which may already be in progress). Is it time for the e-commerce industry to quit?
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      E-commerce is at stake?
    • JacksNiffler·06-15JacksNiffler

      3 Possible Discussion before FOMC June Meeting

      No recent event has the same impact as the FOMC June meeting. It is the time Feds deciding another rate hiking after the May's CPI in the United States beats estimate last friday. A series of consequences appeared: 1. The US treasury rate jumped, and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield jumped to nearly 3.5%; 2. US dollar strengthened rapidly and the dollar index exceeded 105; 3. US stocks fell for five consecutive trading days,$S&P 500(.SPX)$ dopped more than 10%.This week, the yields of 5-year and 30-year US bonds are upside down again, and assets without cash flow or remote cash flow assets are under greater pressure. Markets agree that the Fed needs a steeper path to raise interest rates in order to achieve its policy goal of controlling inflation. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch Tool, from June 10-15,The likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week has risen from 23.2% to 98.6%, with another 75 basis point increase in July,It is possible to achieve the range of 3.25%-3.50% of federal funds by the beginning of next year.Source: CMEInflation has soared in a mess, and the Fed was one of the "accomplices", because they chose to turn a blind eye when they should pay attention to it. But now is not the time to pursue responsibility, but to discuss the immediate solution.Statement 1: The Fed needs to let the stock market fall.The former Federal Reserve chairman, who is already Treasury Secretary, said last month that although US stocks have fallen a lot this year, the asset valuation of US stock markets is still on the high side. Bill Dudley, former chairman of the New York Federal Reserve as a dove, also said,If stocks don't fall, the Fed needs to force them to fall. Because it is necessary to "tighten financial policy".After careful calculation, since Paul Volcker defeated inflation in the 1980s, the problem faced by the Fed has been how to deal with the "tightening" environment. Therefore, monetary policy tends to increase employment rate and consumption.Thereby realizing the wealth effectTherefore, the balance of IR401 (k) account has been increasing for two decades, and the spending power of American people has also increased. But now it is different. If stocks continue to rise, it will give consumers more assets to stimulate consumption, and their demand will continue to aggravate inflation.Therefore, the Federal Reserve should control inflation reasonably at the expense of letting the stock market fall, real estate fall or even the unemployment rate rise to a certain extent.To put it more popularly, under the current sufficient reserve mechanism,Ordinary interest rate hikes alone are not enough to fight inflation, and the Fed will use the "reverse wealth effect" brought about by falling asset prices to curb inflation.Statement 2: The Fed doesn't care about the stock market at all.The implication is not that the Fed needs to "actively" value stock market assets higher or lower, but that any decision of the Fed will not take into account the reaction of the stock market.Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS, said that it is meaningless to discuss whether the stock market is a bull or a bear, and the label of a "bear market" cannot solve the economic problems. And, in proportion,Only half of American households own stock assets,Therefore, the economic importance of the decline in equity assets is not so high.Therefore, apart from the possible "political interference" (Biden invited Powell to the White House for tea), the Fed's consideration of raising interest rates is only heard by them at presentIt's not as good as inflation at first sight. If we want to keep inflation down as much as possible, it is not enough to keep up with inflation, but should exceed the current market consensus (for example, raising the benchmark interest rate above the neutral interest rate).Source: CICCStatement 3: No matter the Fed QT, recession is inevitableThe S&P 500 index fell below its low this year, and many people think that the Fed will use "central bank put options" or other measures to boost the stock market. The so-called central bank put option means that the central bank releases liquidity to rescue the market when the market falls.But can the Fed, which began to shrink its balance sheet in June and has an unprecedented large balance sheet, really control market liquidity easily?In Volcker's case, in 1979, the main constraints on credit creation by the private sector were the amount of bank reserves provided by the Federal Reserve. Volcker used tools to control the money supply tightened the supply of reserves, triggering a sharp rise in currency prices-the federal funds rate soared to 22% at one point. This surge plunged the American economy into recession and inflation subsided.But can this method still be applied at present?Today, private sector banks hold about $3.66 trillion in excess reserves, about 2,000 times the $18 billion in excess reserves before QE began in 2008. As interest rates rise and expectations rise, the number of borrowers is decreasing. Having a lot of reserves under QEPrivate banks are actually relaxing lending standardsTo attract borrowers. The behavior of commercial banks is actually furtherReduced the effect of the Fed's tightening policy.Source: Nomura SecuritiesNow the speed of QT is twice that of the previous tightening stage. If the pace of 2018 is adopted, it will take at least three years to digest all the excess reserves provided under the quantitative easing policy after the epidemic.Source: Nomura SecuritiesTherefore, for the US market, no matter whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 50 basis points, 75 basis points or 100 basis points, the effect of quantitative tightening cannot be truly and efficiently implemented into the economy.The risk aversion of assets brought about by interest rate hikes and the liquidity contraction of financial markets brought about by scale reduction will accelerate the depreciation of assets.At present, the only winner of stagflation is the US dollar. And when the dollar index began to fail to preserve its value, it was the beginning of the financial crisis.So, if you were Powell, how would you choose?$10年美债主连 2209(ZNmain)$$S&P 500(.SPX)$$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $iShares TIPS Bond ETF(TIP)$ $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$
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      3 Possible Discussion before FOMC June Meeting
    • duseve·04-14duseve
      My most memorable investment in the first quarter would be my purchase of the Singapore bank stocks, DBS, UOB, and OCBC. At a time when the market was bullish on bank stocks, I opened positions in all 3 banks. Similar to many people, I received the advicethat bank stocks will not lose, and I believedthat in the long term, these investments would lead to gains. So I focused my entire portfolio on these stocks.However, the early bearishness of these stocks were quickly erased when bank stocks went on a bullish path soon afterwards. Not only did my early gains get wiped out, but I am in the red on bank stocks right now. From this, I learnt the importance of diversifying my portfolio. Putting everything into any single sector, even presumably strong sectors like finance, may lead to overall gains in the long term. In the mid term, however, there could be losses. When developments occur that affect the whole industry, your entire portfolio might rise, but your entire portfoliomay also fall. So I come back to the advice that many seasoned investors and professionals give: always diversify your portfolio. This will be my investment plan for the rest of 2022: to partially close some of my bank positions so that I can purchase stocks in other sectors. It might hurt to sell in the red in the short term, but it can be a sound choice in the long term. Even though I have sustained some losses, I've also learnt, firsthand, a sound investmentprinciple. I hope that others can learn from my experience, too. 
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    • Value_investing·04-20Value_investing

      Tiger Picks: ​WMT, KO, TSN, BG,MOS Are More Anti Inflation

      Yesterday, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds reached 2.884%, a high in recent three years. The interest rate hike rate of the Federal Reserve is expected to rise by about 2.5 basis points in 2025, and the interest rate hike rate of the US futures market is expected to rise by about 2.5 basis points! The stronger news is that US inflation has hit a 40 year high! The CPI is as high as 8.5%, which reminds people of the famous stagflation in the 1970s. At that time, the CPI was as high as 14%, the GDP fell and the unemployment rate rose. Now, the capital market is already worried about a strong interest rate hike or a decline in the US economy. Under the big inflation, growth stocks have greatly killed the valuation, and safe haven stocks have become the focus of market discussion. In the perception of many investors, consumer stocks can raise prices and then resist the impact of inflation. Under this expectation, Coca Cola rose 8.8% this year, significantly outperforming the S & P 500 (- 7.86%). However, can Coca Cola really fight inflation? In the 1970s, the trend of Coca Cola did not seem to benefit. As shown in the figure below, Coca Cola's share price rose with CPI in the early stage of CPI rise (1969), but when CPI soared in the later stage (1973-1974 and 1979), Coca Cola's share price fell sharply: On the contrary, when CPI fell from a high level, Coca Cola's share price performed brilliantly or rebounded. The principle behind this contrast is that hyperinflation has an adverse impact on consumers' purchasing power, such as progressive tax rate. Even if wages rise synchronously with CPI, the tax rate may rise, resulting in a decline in real purchasing power. In addition, the prices of upstream raw materials have soared, and consumer goods enterprises may not be able to transfer all of them to consumers. The more optional consumption, the weaker the pricing power and the greater the impact of inflation. For supermarkets, in the 1970s, Wal Mart's share price also fell sharply in the first wave of inflation (1973-1974), and the share price was not affected by inflation in the second wave of inflation (1978-1979). In 1978, the S & P 500 index also rose. It can be seen that the second occurrence of the same thing can not bring a huge impact to the capital market. Unlike Wal Mart, dollar tree broke the tradition last September and raised the price from 1 yuan to 1.25 dollars. From the perspective of quarterly performance, the effect of price increase was immediate: For food enterprises, the current price rise has brought real benefits. For example, Tyson Foods, the first quarter report of 2022 showed that its beef sales fell by 6.2%, but its revenue increased by 25% due to the 31.7% price rise: Due to the large income scale and low profit margin of food enterprises, at present, the rise of commodity prices has brought about the improvement of profit margin. Although the revenue of Tyson food in the first quarter increased by 24% year-on-year, the net profit increased by 139%! The situation of agricultural company Bunge is similar to that of Tyson. Although the sales volume decreases, the price increases, driving the income skyrocketing: Fertilizer stocks are also benefiting greatly from inflation. According to the sales data from January to February released by mosaic, the revenue of its potash fertilizer has increased greatly with the increase of price under the condition of declining sales: During the year, the share price of mosaic soared by 99%! From the above anti inflation stocks, whether Coca Cola and Shangchao stocks can perform well in this round of inflation needs a question mark, while food and agriculture stocks, at least at present, show a soaring trend in financial data, which is a beneficiary stock under big inflation! $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ $Coca-Cola(KO)$ $Tyson(TSN)$ $Bunge(BG)$ $Mosaic(MOS)$
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      Tiger Picks: ​WMT, KO, TSN, BG,MOS Are More Anti Inflation
    • MaverickTiger·05-07MaverickTiger

      Will Under Armour's plummet affect NKE/LULU?

      $Under Armour Class A(UAA)$ released Q1 earnings report before May 6 open,  and fell by 26% in a single day. Although the stock price was already staying low the, it still could not stop investors selling it to single digit. The performance fell short of expectations, and the guidance lowered, all of which made investors tremble with fear in the current jittery market. Revenue growth rate further decline to 3.5% $1.3 billion in a single quarter, roughly the same as market expectations. Among them, clothing was 880 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%; Footwear was 300 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; Authorized revenue increased by 23% year-on-year to US $26.6 million; Regionally, the revenue in North America was 840 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; The Asia-Pacific region was US $180 million, a year-on-year decrease of Inventory turnover rate further increased to 3.45, and the inventory turnover days further decreased to 106 days; Gross profit decreased by 3.7% year-on-year to US $600 million,Gross profit margin fell to 46.5%The level of; The operating loss was $46 million. The adjusted EBITDA was US $45.68 million, which was far less than the expected profit level of the market. Judging from Q1 performance, the revenue was barely equal to the market expectation, but the profit index was much lower than expected, and there was an operating loss, which was unexpected by the market. Among them, gross profit margin dropped to the lowest level in history. Due to the telephone conference last quarter, UA executives have warned that rising freight rates will erode profits. Therefore, most investment banks have lowered their gross profit margin accordingly. Still, costs for the quarter were well ahead of analysts' expectations, and it is more likely that executives are not "telling the truth." In fact, compare to $adidas AG(ADDYY)$$Nike(NKE)$$Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$, Under armour is more vulnerable to the rising cost of raw materials . One of UA's motto is that "cotton is our natural enemy", which implies that their sports clothing products do not use cotton as the material, because in sports , cotton are not easy to dry, so they are not the best materials. Therefore, most of the raw materials of UA are polyester fibers of petroleum derivatives, including polyester, spandex, acrylic fiber and so on. The biggest advantage of polyester fiber is its good wrinkle resistance and shape retention, high strength and elastic recovery ability, and it is a favored raw material in sports field. Therefore, rising oil prices are the natural enemies of Under armour. Supply chain crisis and rising logistics costs did affect the company to a certain extent in Q4 last year, but the problem has been alleviated to a great extent in Q1 this year, the company's revenue, inventory turnover rate and other data are improving, so the biggest problem is still the profit margin. Will such problems also bother other sports brand companies? Yesterday in the UAA belt fell, LULU bigIt fell 7.7%, while NKE was slightly stronger and fell 3.5%. In fact, the market is by no means a fool. Nike dropped less, not only because of its great scale, but also the market understands that companies embracing "cotton" will less impact by oil price, even if the profit margin is affected, it will never be as big as UA. While LULU's large portion of yoga clothes are also polyester products, so its profit margin may be greatly affected. (Even if the impact in the current period is not great, it will be deferred). At present, the market expects LULU's gross profit margin to be 58.1%, which is still a new high. With UA's experience, will investors reconsider?​ $Under Armour(UA)$ $Under Armour Class A(UAA)$
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      Will Under Armour's plummet affect NKE/LULU?
    • Joker_Smile·03-31Joker_Smile

      Most Memorable Investment in Q1 2022.

      Current it would be my decision to keep holding on Chinese ADRs such as $Alibaba(BABA)$ . I bought it last year when it was at a low point, i thought so. And it went tumbling downwards due to the authorities crackdown on Chinese BigTech firms. I thought of selling it, but in the end keep holding on it since what's worse than holding onto it, right? Luckily never sell, or else lose even more than now as the stock recover after a vote of confidence in the chinese authority. Returns is still negative. But could have been worse off if I decided to give up totally in Chinese ADR. One lesson I gain is to trust the stocks I buy, especially those established Big companies. Though at times, I admit, I wavered and thought of throwing in the towel. It's an internal struggle against myself. As Q1 flies past, I will keep reminding myself of the painful past lessons of the past, those which I paid huge school fees in return for minimal experience and huge heartache, and minimize such mistakes again. I am learning, and will continue to learn. Huat Ah! [Miser] [Miser]  @TigerEvents  @TigerStars  
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      Most Memorable Investment in Q1 2022.
    • Jo Tan·05-11Jo Tan

      11 May Newbie's Blog

      As the market continues to be down, I'm not sure whether to count myself lucky of having this experience. The "package" includes:1. Losses ballooning from $900 to $5200. This may not seem like much but it sure is demoralising.2. Having to hold on, so as not to suffer real losses. As much as I advocated this, as much as I chose good stocks, everything is falling. At time of writing, I am preparing for $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$  to fall once the share shoulders have clocked their dividends. Learning to walk the talk was extremely difficult since the war started and even till date, I have not seen the effects of the rate hikes in the bank stocks.3. Reconfiguring my portfolio: In a bull market, everything looks shiny and tempting. In a bear market, my portfolio feels like a leaky water bottle. It was easier to concentrate on the few stocks and focus on the way ahead rather than having many. What I have learntI am repeatedly reminding myself not to time the market because as I've learnt from Ramit Sethi, us retail investors will never have advance knowledge that big corporations have. We can never predict the market (but I think we can align, somewhat, to market conditions, especially like now,On point 2, I guess I have also learnt that even though I expected the bank stocks to rise, not only because of external conditions but one more important point is that, so does everyone. This means that by the time you buy, the price rise would already have been priced in and you're too late.So, the next best thing to do, especially now that DBS is falling madly, is to hold on and not guess. With fingers crossed, that's my sharing today. What do you think? @TigerStars  @Tiger_SG  
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      11 May Newbie's Blog