PeterDiCarlo
PeterDiCarlo
Quant Trader šŸ’» NEVER FINANCIAL ADVICE
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Market Move | SPY Rally Faces Rejection, QQQ Sells Off, TSLA Delays, UAMY Flips 100%

The market remains volatile this week: $SPY shows a relief rally but faces resistance, $QQQ continues its sell-off, $TSLA lags expected gains, and $UAMY locks in a 100% profit. Traders should watch key levels before making moves. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ & $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Nailed the $QQQ and $SPY sell off so far After this week’s bounce, a lot of people are asking if I think the selling is done and if this is the bottom. 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I said $TSLA would be at $550 by March 2026. I was wrong šŸ”» Both of my models are still bullish, but it has taken much longer than expected. Even with a solid system, you will be wrong at times. 3.
Market Move | SPY Rally Faces Rejection, QQQ Sells Off, TSLA Delays, UAMY Flips 100%
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-17 13:57

Market Check: Tesla Targets $440, SPY Needs a Breakout, Micron Flashes a Caution Sign

Three names, one timeline: the next two weeks determine whether Tesla and SPY extend their rallies or roll over. Micron is up 286%—well past the buy zone. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA: Long + short-term models are aligned ā¬†ļø Short-term target (6–8 weeks): $440–$450. But we need a strong rally in the next 2 weeks to flip the Monthly BX back to green. If that does not happen, both models drop the bull case and I expect a selloff toward $300 šŸ¤ž 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY +1.20% to start the session. For this bull cycle to continue, we need a strong breakout in the next two weeks that turns MBX back green. If that does not happen, my base case is a move to 680 to 685, then another rejection. 3.
Market Check: Tesla Targets $440, SPY Needs a Breakout, Micron Flashes a Caution Sign
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-16 15:27

Mixed Model Signals: $CROX, $LMND Face Critical Test While $MU Rally Looks Overextended

Several stocks are approaching critical technical inflection points. While $LMND still holds a bullish model setup, names like $CROX and $HIMS face potential bull traps if momentum fails soon. Meanwhile, $MU’s massive +286% rally suggests the cycle may be maturing rather than offering a fresh entry, highlighting a market where timing and patience remain key. 1. $Crocs(CROX)$ CROX has only 2 weeks to bounce and flip the Monthly BX back to green 🟢 If not, this Bull Cycle was a trap, and we move on. 2. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ HIMS bounced +90% off the lows and just filled the gap. Both my models are still NOT long, so I’m sitting this out. When MBX is red, rallies like this usually trap retail. B
Mixed Model Signals: $CROX, $LMND Face Critical Test While $MU Rally Looks Overextended
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-16 15:24

Bearish Signals Persist for $PLTR, $META, $HOOD, BTC May See Short-Term Bounce

Several major assets are flashing bearish signals across multiple models, suggesting the broader market may still face downside pressure. While short-term bounces remain possible, the dominant trend for $PLTR, $META, and $HOOD remains weak, and even BTC’s potential rebound toward $80K may only represent a temporary relief rally within a larger bearish structure. 1. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Both of my models are still bearish on $PLTR āŒ I’m not shorting it, but I am staying out and waiting for confirmation of a real bottom. My expectation is a push back toward the 170 area at best, followed by another rejection. 2. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Both of my models are still bearish on $META šŸ”» Each b
Bearish Signals Persist for $PLTR, $META, $HOOD, BTC May See Short-Term Bounce

Top Market Move | Re-Entry Signals Trigger for $UNP $ULTA $LLY

Market setups signal short-term bullish opportunities in select names, with $UNP, $ULTA, and $LLY showing high-probability re-entry points for potential 5–10% rallies over the next 6–10 weeks. 1. $Union Pacific(UNP)$ UNP just hit all bullish criteria šŸš€ THT Combined Signal fired a fresh long inside this bull cycle. In this setup, 75% of cases see a 5% to 10% move up within 7 weeks. Average pullback before the move is about 5%, so my ideal entry is near 232. System says enter now. If we get another 5% drop, even better. 2. $ulta beauty(ULTA)$ 83% of the time this $ULTA setup rallies 8% to 10%. Long term bull cycle is intact. Price has pulled back into fair value again. Historically this has been a solid shor
Top Market Move | Re-Entry Signals Trigger for $UNP $ULTA $LLY

Rebound or Breakdown? MSTR, RIVN, NIO & QQQ at Critical Levels

Several key momentum names are approaching critical technical levels, with rebounds, support tests, and potential breakdowns shaping the near-term outlook. Investors are closely watching whether these levels hold to determine the next market move. 1. $Strategy(MSTR)$ MSTR +5% today and the $190 → $200 rebound is on the table. Monthly BX is still dark red, so the long term model is not bullish yet. In bear cycles most relief bounces are traps, so I’ll stay patient and wait for confirmation. 2. $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Volatile week for $RIVN, but my bull case is still on the table. Fair Value support is being tested and I expect a bounce into April / May if it holds. 3.
Rebound or Breakdown? MSTR, RIVN, NIO & QQQ at Critical Levels

Mixed Signals: $TXN Lights Up, $NBIS Hits Target, $QQQ Looks Fragile

Markets look messy right now, but a few interesting setups are starting to emerge: 1. $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ Market looks ugly, but $TXN just lit up on BOTH of my systems. Monthly BX flipped green in Jan and my short-term reentry just fired after a 12% pullback. Asymmetric setup: coin-flip odds with 3–4x upside vs downside. 2. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ NBIS Up 25% from a level we called before the bounce. Just hit our first target off a simple re‑entry signal with a ~70% win rate and tight risk. 3. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ā€œI’m bearish on $QQQ and hope I am wrong āŒ I think we’re setting up for a 5–10% flush that punishes every ā€˜buy the dip’ trader. I hope I'm wrong but here’s exa
Mixed Signals: $TXN Lights Up, $NBIS Hits Target, $QQQ Looks Fragile

$IREN $NBIS $GS and $MGM Show Bullish Setups as Key Levels Hold

Several stocks are showing constructive technical setups as key support and volume levels hold. $IREN continues to respect a major liquidity zone, $NBIS is gaining momentum with a potential gap-fill squeeze, $GS is testing a critical monthly signal that could confirm a bullish move, and $MGM is quietly compressing within a bullish cycle, setting up for a possible breakout over the next 30–60 days. šŸ“ˆ 1. $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ IREN respected this liquidity zone again today. As long as this level holds, I’m expecting a push back up to retest 52. 2. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ NBIS is already up 14% since I posted this. If this volume level gets swept, I’m expecting the gap to fill and price to squeeze up toward 125. šŸŽÆ 3.
$IREN $NBIS $GS and $MGM Show Bullish Setups as Key Levels Hold

$QQQ Models Turn Bearish as Monthly BX Flips Red

Both my models are bearish on $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ šŸ”“ Monthly BX is now red, which is the first‑principles signal for these models. Trend is still trying to hold, but it’s fighting a massive volume block on the THT volume profile with a big air pocket sitting right below it. I want the market to push to new all‑time highs as much as anyone, but being objective my base case here is a rejection in the next week and a multi‑week to multi‑month selloff. Best case I see a move toward 560, but more realistically I’m eyeing 540 as the magnet. As I said yestorday: Heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and this still looks like a trap on $QQQ. Monthly BX remains bearish. Most bounces from here have led to lower highs and more selling. Price is also pushing in
$QQQ Models Turn Bearish as Monthly BX Flips Red

QQQ Faces 5% Downside Risk as SPY Tests $680–$690 While UAMY Locks Gains

Markets are approaching a key macro test with inflation data ahead. QQQ is nearing a potential rejection zone with downside risk building, SPY is approaching a critical resistance band, while UAMY remains bullish even as profits are partially locked in after a strong run. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and this still looks like a trap on $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . Monthly BX remains bearish. Most bounces from here have led to lower highs and more selling. Price is also pushing into the Daily Bias, which is bearish right now. In a downtrend, that level often acts as resistance. I’m prepared for about 5% downside over the next 30 days. Hoping this doesn’t happen, but if $QQQ is going t
QQQ Faces 5% Downside Risk as SPY Tests $680–$690 While UAMY Locks Gains

$QQQ System Still Bearish as $CAVA $IREN Maintain Bull Cycles

A sharp rally triggered by geopolitical headlines has lifted equities, but underlying signals remain mixed. While the system stays cautious on Invesco QQQ Trust and watches a key turning point for Tesla Inc., bullish cycles continue to hold in CAVA Group Inc. and IREN Ltd. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Market just ripped +1.5% in 30 minutes on ā€œwar might end soonā€ headlines. My system is still bearish on $QQQ and cautious on $SPY. šŸ”» I’m long 63 stocks. If I’m right, my fund gets hurt short term. I walk through the data, BX Trend, and why this bounce may be exit liquidity ā¬‡ļø 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA is still in a bull cycle… but we’re right on the edge. If price doesn’t bounce soon, the Monthly BX will close re
$QQQ System Still Bearish as $CAVA $IREN Maintain Bull Cycles

$NVDA Exit Signal as $POET $CROX $AMD Maintain Bullish Bias

Technical signals are diverging across key tech and growth names. While NVIDIA faces correction risk after a bearish monthly signal, bullish setups continue to build in POET Technologies Inc, Crocs Inc., and Advanced Micro Devices as momentum and trend indicators remain supportive. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Closed out all my $NVDA to start March. Setup is not pretty. Monthly BX closed red, signaling a likely correction, and I still expect a 10–15% move down into the Monthly Fair Value Range. You’re allowed to be wrong in your conviction. You are not allowed to bag hold. 2. $Crocs(CROX)$ CROX is starting to show early signs of a new bull cycle. Our THT Short Term strategy just printed a buy signal on this name. Hi
$NVDA Exit Signal as $POET $CROX $AMD Maintain Bullish Bias

$META $NFLX Bear Cycles Persist as $CAVA Signals New Bull Run

Several major stocks are diverging in trend direction as technical cycles reset. While Meta Platforms Inc. and Netflix Inc. remain trapped in bearish structures with rallies likely to fade, CAVA Group Inc. is flashing signals of a potential new bull cycle. 1. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ META trap was set and we called it. Our Monthly BX model has been bearish since November while price compressed. Earnings spike looked strong, but it did not change the rules, so we stayed flat. Base case: further downside toward $550 over the next 4–6 weeks. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ When a name is in a bear cycle, most bounces are traps. $NFLX Our Monthly BX system flipped this to sell in October 2025 after a long bull run. I
$META $NFLX Bear Cycles Persist as $CAVA Signals New Bull Run

Warning Signs for $QQQ, $ADBE Bottom Unconfirmed, $PLTR Rally Looks Like a Trap

Warning signals are emerging across several major tech names. $QQQ is showing macro-timeframe strength deterioration that historically precedes a 5–12% correction, $ADBE is seeing early buying but still lacks a confirmed long-term bottom, and $PLTR’s latest rally is raising concerns of a potential bull trap rather than a sustainable breakout. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Price compression + a red Monthly BX is not strength. It means strength is being removed on the macro timeframe. Our long term model removed its bullish outlook last month. I hope I’m wrong. But historically this setup leads to a 5% to 12% correction 82% of the time. 2. $Adobe(ADBE)$ I’ve been stalking an $ADBE bottom for a year. We’re seeing sho
Warning Signs for $QQQ, $ADBE Bottom Unconfirmed, $PLTR Rally Looks Like a Trap

NVDA sidelined, NFLX trap, DUOL & HIMS await bull cycles, AMR testing support

Market focus remains on selective entries: NVDA sidelined amid potential correction, NFLX shows short-term weakness, while DUOL and HIMS await confirmed bull cycles. Meanwhile, AMR presents a historical bounce opportunity at key support. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVDA flat on the day. As I said last week, I’ve closed all fund positions and shelved the bullish thesis for now. When the Monthly BX is red, it usually signals either compression or a correction. Neither is an environment I want to trade in. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ This $NFLX bounce looks like a trap. Big 2-week move up, but THT Monthly BX is still dark red and the short-term trend is down. That combo often leads to another selloff. I’ll wait for our long tr
NVDA sidelined, NFLX trap, DUOL & HIMS await bull cycles, AMR testing support

Mixed Signals: $TSLA Stable, $MSTR Still Bearish, $SPY Fighting Support

Markets show cautious tone: $TSLA remains supported and bullish, $MSTR may see a short-term rebound toward $190–$200, while $SPY tests critical support. Overall, mixed signals suggest careful positioning and close monitoring of trend shifts. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA compressing again on support. Still bullish. āœ… 2. $Strategy(MSTR)$ My system hasn’t been bullish on $MSTR since the breakdown in November. Since then, price has dumped and the Monthly BX keeps printing red. We likely put in a short term bottom and could see a push into the 190–200 area before rejection. I will NOT go long until my triggers are met. 3. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY still doi
Mixed Signals: $TSLA Stable, $MSTR Still Bearish, $SPY Fighting Support

$SPY & $HOOD Bearish, $MU Overextended, $JD Lessons in Risk Management

Key names are at critical junctures. $SPY teeters on a daily head-and-shoulders, $MU looks expensive in the short term, $JD highlights the importance of cutting losses, and $HOOD remains in a bearish cycle despite potential relief rallies. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Liquidity is hanging on for dear life. And $SPY is building a daily head and shoulders. If that neckline breaks, things could get ugly fast. 2. $Micron Technology(MU)$ I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think now is the time to buy $MU. Yes, trend is bullish and buyers are still in control. But short term, you’re paying an extreme premium. My ideal play is a 20% pullback, then looking to buy the dip. 3. $
$SPY & $HOOD Bearish, $MU Overextended, $JD Lessons in Risk Management

$HOOD & $NOW Bearish, $MSFT at Key Support, $RIVN Coiling in Buy Zone

Several major names are at pivotal levels. $HOOD and $NOW remain in bearish cycles despite bounce potential, $MSFT is reacting off major long-term support, and $RIVN continues compressing inside a developing buy range. 1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ HOOD is still in a Bear Cycle in my system. Monthly BX is dark red, so trend stays down, but a relief rally into the $60 area is possible. Monthly Bias is often a strong support zone, but I’m still on the sidelines. I only buy when there is real pressure in the market, not on ā€œdiscountā€ alone. 2. $ServiceNow(NOW)$ NOW is building a solid base and a move back toward $140–$150 is possible. I am not buying yet āŒ My system is still bearish: Monthly BX is dark red and sellers
$HOOD & $NOW Bearish, $MSFT at Key Support, $RIVN Coiling in Buy Zone

$AAPL & $AMD Test Support, $PLTR Trap Risk, $PLUG Diverges

Mixed signals across the board. $PLUG is pushing higher against market weakness, while $AAPL and $AMD sit at critical support with Monthly BX still green. Meanwhile, $PLTR’s bounce may be short-lived as broader signals remain bearish. 1. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ In a sea of red, $PLUG is pushing up stream 2. $Apple(AAPL)$ AAPL doing everything it can to stay bullish. Trend is still green and the Monthly BX is holding green. Both point to a potential bounce. If this support gives way and MBX flips, I am looking for a 10% to 12% correction. 3. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD clinging to support with the Monthly BX still green. We’re at a critical make-or-break level. Fo
$AAPL & $AMD Test Support, $PLTR Trap Risk, $PLUG Diverges

$TSLA, $NVO, $NVDA / $QQQ Highlight Critical Monthly BX Signals

March is shaping up as a pivotal month for these major names. Monthly BX readings show $TSLA at a key bounce point, $NVO experiencing a decisive rotation, and $NVDA / $QQQ flashing cautionary bearish signals. Data-driven moves are crucial—protect capital, not feelings. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ If $TSLA is going to bounce, this is the spot. Huge month coming up: without strong follow-through, Monthly BX can close dark red and flip the script. For now, all our criteria are still met, so I remain bullish on $TSLA. 2. $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ I just took a 27% loss on $NVO … and I’d still take that trade again. BX was bullish, criteria was met, then the stock nuked and Monthly BX flipped red. I cut it and rotate
$TSLA, $NVO, $NVDA / $QQQ Highlight Critical Monthly BX Signals

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