PeterDiCarlo
PeterDiCarlo
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$SPY Sets the Tone as $DECK Strength and $ONDS Matures

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is at a key decision level while leaders like Deckers Outdoor Corporation extend and others turn extended. This is a manage, not chase environment — wait for confirmation before new entries. 1. $Deckers Outdoor(DECK)$ $DECK is up +15% since bouncing on the 33 FVB Our combined signal system still has this as an open trade setup and the next target is $120 2. $Eos Energy Enterprises Inc.(EOSE)$ $EOSE is forming a potential bottom inside the Smart Money Zone. Historically this is where institutions step in to defend structure. Not buying yet. Waiting for the monthly chart to confirm buying pressure before I enter. 3. $Ondas Holdings Inc.(ONDS)
$SPY Sets the Tone as $DECK Strength and $ONDS Matures
avatarPeterDiCarlo
04-13 07:00

$SOUN and $SNOW Show Why Re Entry Matters More Than Timing

Cut losers when your system breaks — no exceptions. Both SoundHound AI Inc. and Snowflake Inc. show the same lesson: once the Monthly BX flips red, macro pressure turns against you. That’s not a dip to buy — it’s risk to avoid. Good trading isn’t about being right, it’s about managing risk. 1. $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ Rode $SOUN through a mega rally last year. Sold the rest in January when the MBX flipped red. Stock is down another 50% in 3 months since. Losing trades are part of this. Bag holding is a choice. Stop out when rules break, wait for a clean re-entry. Every time. 2. $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $SNOW is a good example of why the Monthly BX matters. Flipped dark red in January. Down almost 40% since. Sti
$SOUN and $SNOW Show Why Re Entry Matters More Than Timing
avatarPeterDiCarlo
04-13 06:56

Why I'm Not Trusting This Rally $SPY

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just ripped higher over the past two weeks. That move was fueled by optimism around a US and Iran ceasefire and the possibility of broader de-escalation. Once again, the market reminded us how fast it can recover when sentiment shifts. But I'm not trusting this move blindly. There are a few technical concerns that need to be respected before anyone gets comfortable chasing this bounce. The Monthly BX Is Still Dark Red Even after this rally, the Monthly BX has not flipped. It's still dark red. That matters more than most people realize. When macro buying pressure isn't there, rallies can turn into traps. In real bull cycles, dips lead to breakouts. In weaker conditions, bounces lead to rejection. That's the structural differ
Why I'm Not Trusting This Rally $SPY

$AMZN Is Noise Until It Expands

Here comes the real test for $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Rooting for the bulls to break through this level šŸ¤ I’m still sitting this one out for now I’m not trying to make money on the next trade. I’m trying to follow my system. The edge comes from consistency, not one setup. Sticking to the system matters more than what happens next. Nothing bad happens from missing a trade. With AMZN, I don’t lose money by sitting this out. I’ve got ~50 positions on and there’s always another opportunity. Worst case, it rips and I miss it. Best case, it pulls back and I get a better entry. Win win for me. Any stock with heavy compression is usually going to underperform with my system MBX doesn’t do well in sideways, low movement environments, and AMZN has been stuck in t
$AMZN Is Noise Until It Expands

Profits Taken on $AMD, $NBIS Delivers, $SPY Flashes Trap Signals

Strong week, profits secured. $AMD targets hit, $NBIS extended higher — but $SPY is now at a bearish zone with macro risk ahead. Focus shifts to protecting gains, not chasing upside. 1. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $AMD target hit šŸŽÆ Locking in profits on calls and shares here. No reason to get greedy into the weekend in case we see a rejection. 2. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $NBIS +40% since our Combined Signal System buy We called this setup last week. Congrats if you took it I passed since I haven’t profited on prior moves this cycle That said, last 2 callouts in 2 months have printed 60%+ šŸ”„ 3. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $SPY at a bearish smart money zone into the wee
Profits Taken on $AMD, $NBIS Delivers, $SPY Flashes Trap Signals

$CROX $PLTR $SPY $AMZN $AMD Mixed Signals as Patience Meets Momentum

Momentum is building across select names, with $CROX and $AMD delivering strong upside, but overall positioning remains cautious. Key resistance levels and unmet criteria are keeping traders patient on $PLTR, $SPY, and $AMZN. The current environment reflects selective conviction rather than broad risk-on behavior, with many waiting for confirmation before committing to new longs. 1. $Crocs(CROX)$ +17% move up since this post $CROX āœ… $100 is a strong resistance and chance we reject short term here. Once we sweep this in the coming weeks, I’m expecting $120 by June 2. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ This is why I’m still not long and remaining patient. Once criteria is finally met, I will go long. Until
$CROX $PLTR $SPY $AMZN $AMD Mixed Signals as Patience Meets Momentum

Leadership Holds, Breakouts Building | $AMD, $PLUG, $ENPH, $NIO Set the Tone

Despite mixed macro signals, select names are showing clean structure, strong follow-through, and actionable levels. This is a tape where execution matters more than direction — leaders are separating, and key triggers are clearly defined. 1. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD moving towards our first target of $240-$250 šŸŽÆ 2. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ PLUG first target hit and +40% move up since February Very thin volume on the VP If we sweep this $2.60 resistance, expect a passive rally up to $3.50 3. $Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ Pulled right back to $33 and respecting smart money zone $ENPH This is exactly what we want to see from a re-test šŸ˜Ž 4.
Leadership Holds, Breakouts Building | $AMD, $PLUG, $ENPH, $NIO Set the Tone

Still Long $SPY, But Overhead Supply Raises Trap Risk

Remaining optimistic but objective $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ My fund is fully long and would only benefit from a push to all-time highs That said both of our bull cycle indicators are still red. Hope for the best, expect the worst Not to mention point of control & smart money zones are sitting right overhead All while Monthly BX is still red on $SPY I’m still fully long, but I’ve rotated out of tech into other sectors Still… this is starting to feel like a trap
Still Long $SPY, But Overhead Supply Raises Trap Risk

From Bullish to Break Even: TSLA +51% Gains Mostly Reversed

Let me say this. I genuinely hope this is the bottom for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ . I gain nothing from it falling more. If I miss the move, so be it. Plenty of other setups out there. My ego isn’t tied to being right. Maybe I’m the bottom indicator ā¤ļø I was loudly bullish TSLA to $550 by end of March 2026 I was wrong āŒ Price ran +51%, then gave most back. I closed the trade and my system is now OFF Tesla. PS: It’s built to catch multi-year breakouts. The long-term system, based on the monthly BX, enters a bull cycle about 50% of the time and typically sees moves of 125% to 250% over a 1–2 year period. It’s about positioning for the bigger cycle. And because of that, if the breakout doesn’t happen, it will naturally exit a bit late. I have no way to f
From Bullish to Break Even: TSLA +51% Gains Mostly Reversed

Cautious Optimism: SPY After-Hours Rally Tests Technical Limits

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Huge 2% move up for SPY after hours šŸš€ Price is now pushing into the Daily and Weekly fair value bands which are both still red. If we are going to see a rejection this is the level where it happens. As we covered in last week's videos if the short term trend flips bullish again and the monthly BX closes a higher low this would confirm the bottom. For now I am staying cautious. Note: I want this to be the bottom for $SPY and $QQQ just as much as anyone. As you all know I do not short and my fund is fully exposed long right now. The market moving back toward all time highs would only help my positions. But I have to stay objective regardless of what I want to happen. The reason I am out of most big tech is simple. Th
Cautious Optimism: SPY After-Hours Rally Tests Technical Limits

$HIMS Down 60% Buyers Yet to Show Monthly BX Signals No Entry

We turned bearish on $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ in October. The stock is down 60% since then. 🩸 Sellers are still in control and I am still not buying. Here is why. Price is sitting right on the monthly fair value band. That is long term support from an institutional standpoint and normally a level worth paying attention to. But support is not a signal. Buyers showing up is the signal. The monthly BX is not showing that yet. Until it does, I am not touching this. I know the temptation here. The stock is down 60% and sitting on a key level. It feels like the bottom. That feeling is exactly what gets people into trouble. We do not buy discounts. We buy strength. Will I miss the perfect bottom? Yes. Every time. That is fine. I would rather b
$HIMS Down 60% Buyers Yet to Show Monthly BX Signals No Entry

$LMND Bull Cycle Ends After 217% Rally Institutional Buying Turns Red

After a 217% and two year rally, our long term system is calling the $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ Bull Cycle Over āŒ The monthly BX has turned red. That tells me institutional strength is being pulled from this setup. When that happens, we do not fight it. We step aside. I want to be clear about what this is not. This is not a short signal. I never look to short positions. This is simply the system telling me the criteria for a long term hold is no longer met, so I stop holding. No drama. No guessing. The indicator flips, we move on. My worst case downside expectation from here is $35 to $40 over the next 3 to 4 months. I am not trading around that. I am just watching. When the monthly BX shows buying pressure again and the bull cycle criteria is met, I
$LMND Bull Cycle Ends After 217% Rally Institutional Buying Turns Red

Mixed Market Setups: $PLUG Up, $TSLA Bear, $IREN Flat, $ULTA Bounce, $CAVA Bull

This week’s market highlights show a mix of bullish and bearish setups across key stocks, with some poised for strong rallies while others remain under pressure. 1. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ $PLUG is now up 40% from this post Congrats to anyone who hit this First target level is now hit. Next target would be $3.50 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ As of last week, I’m no longer bullish on $TSLA āŒ My system is showing bear cycle criteria, so I have to respect it. As always, I hope I'm wrong. Base case is a move back into Monthly Fair Value around $300. When my criteria flip long again, I’ll get bullish again. 3. $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ I’m flat on $IREN and I hope I’m wrong. MBX is red a
Mixed Market Setups: $PLUG Up, $TSLA Bear, $IREN Flat, $ULTA Bounce, $CAVA Bull

$SOFI Bull Cycle Ended Stay on Sideline Until Buying Pressure Returns

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ 's two year bull cycle ended March 1st. People keep asking if this is the bottom. Here is why I am not buying yet. Two things I look at before entering any long term position. The monthly BX and the fair value band. Right now both are telling me the same thing. Stay away. The monthly BX measures buying pressure. When it is dark red, there is no buying pressure in the market. No buying pressure means no entry. Simple as that. I do not care how cheap the stock looks. If institutions are not buying, I am not buying. A lot of people want to time the bottom perfectly. I get it. It feels great when it works. But the downside of being wrong is holding a falling stock for months waiting to break even. That is not a trade. Th
$SOFI Bull Cycle Ended Stay on Sideline Until Buying Pressure Returns

$AMD Setup Has 69% Probability of 20% Rally Stay Long

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ is up 4% since our initial entry. The system says stay long. Here is the full picture. Our long term and short term systems are both bullish on AMD right now. 69% of the time when this setup appears, price rallies around 20%. We are 4% into that move. Buying pressure on the monthly BX has dipped a bit. We are staying the course anyway. Our criteria is still met. The system says hold, so we hold. Now here is the part people are going to push back on. I am bearish on $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ . $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ is not looking strong to me either. And I do not care. My job is not to have opinions. My job is to trade my system. If the system is not
$AMD Setup Has 69% Probability of 20% Rally Stay Long

$NBIS Dip Buy Opportunity Appears Only for Traders Who Ridden the Cycle

$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ has been in a bull cycle since June 2024. The stock is up over 200%. It just pulled back into discount range with the monthly BX still green. 68% of the time, that means a breakout to a higher high is coming. I'm still not buying. Here's the honest reason why. Last time this exact setup appeared, $NBIS rallied 20% in 5 weeks. We called it. The setup is back. But here is the thing about trading a long-term system. Every bull cycle eventually ends. And when it ends, you are going to take a loss. That is not a problem as long as you made enough money on the way up to absorb it. I have not taken every $NBIS setup in this cycle. That is on me. Which means if I enter now and the cycle turns in two months, I take a 20-30% loss without enou
$NBIS Dip Buy Opportunity Appears Only for Traders Who Ridden the Cycle

$ENPH Pullback Within Bull Cycle, Drawdown Normal, Position Intact

$Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ is down 9% since we entered. That's fine. This is exactly how the average winning trade in this cycle behaves before it rallies. We called the bull cycle weeks ago. We entered long. The pullback is on track. Our system does not try to ping the exact bottom. It enters on pullbacks inside a confirmed bull cycle. Average drawdown before the rally is 20%. We are at 9%. Position is sized correctly. Conviction has not changed. Still very long. Not worried in the slightest. PS: My system enters on pullbacks. Not bottoms. That means ~75% of entries go red first. Short term pain. Then the move. We are buying retracements in a bull cycle, not pinpointing the bottom For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a t
$ENPH Pullback Within Bull Cycle, Drawdown Normal, Position Intact

$HOOD Key Level to Watch Is $70 Before Volume Gap to $40

Stopped trading $Robinhood(HOOD)$ at the end of January. It is down 40% since. Not touching it yet. Monthly chart is still showing a bear cycle. Until that flips there is nothing to do here. The level to watch is $70. If that breaks we have a volume gap all the way down to $40. I am not looking for a short term bounce. Bounces in bear cycles are traps. You buy it. It fades. You hold the bag. I am waiting for the full cycle shift back to bull before I even think about an entry. Buying dips in a bear cycle feels smart. It rarely ends that way. I will be waiting for confirmation of a rotation on the MBX For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stock
$HOOD Key Level to Watch Is $70 Before Volume Gap to $40

$PLTR Worst Case Targets $80 After Volume Gap Fill

Called the $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ trap weeks ago. Stock is now down 15% from that breakout. Here is what is happening. We are in a bear cycle. The monthly chart confirms it. In a bear cycle every bounce is a trap. Retail sees a bottom. Institutions see an exit. That bounce up to $170 I was watching did not even fully play out. The rejection last month was not a good sign. Worst case from here is another 30% down. That puts price around $80 after filling the volume gap. So what do we do? We wait. No buying. No bottom guessing. No being exit liquidity for the people selling into your confidence. When our bull cycle criteria is met again we will look to buy at a significant discount. Until then the trade is patience. For SG users only, We
$PLTR Worst Case Targets $80 After Volume Gap Fill

$NVDA Faces $140 Support as Selling Pressure Mounts

We exited $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ at the end of last month. Since then it is down 8%. Next stop should be $140. Every time price tests a liquidity zone the odds of a sweep go up. The monthly chart shows buying pressure being pulled out consistently. When institutions stop defending a stock they are not coming back to save it. So what do we do? Nothing. Yet. No shorts. No guessing the bottom. We wait for the selloff. Then we wait for our system to confirm buying pressure is rotating back in. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. šŸŽ‰Cash Boost Account Now Supports
$NVDA Faces $140 Support as Selling Pressure Mounts

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