PeterDiCarlo
PeterDiCarlo
Quant Trader šŸ’» NEVER FINANCIAL ADVICE
25Follow
1334Followers
0Topic
0Badge
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-11 16:06

QQQ Faces 5% Downside Risk as SPY Tests $680–$690 While UAMY Locks Gains

Markets are approaching a key macro test with inflation data ahead. QQQ is nearing a potential rejection zone with downside risk building, SPY is approaching a critical resistance band, while UAMY remains bullish even as profits are partially locked in after a strong run. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and this still looks like a trap on $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . Monthly BX remains bearish. Most bounces from here have led to lower highs and more selling. Price is also pushing into the Daily Bias, which is bearish right now. In a downtrend, that level often acts as resistance. I’m prepared for about 5% downside over the next 30 days. Hoping this doesn’t happen, but if $QQQ is going t
QQQ Faces 5% Downside Risk as SPY Tests $680–$690 While UAMY Locks Gains
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-10 15:53

$QQQ System Still Bearish as $CAVA $IREN Maintain Bull Cycles

A sharp rally triggered by geopolitical headlines has lifted equities, but underlying signals remain mixed. While the system stays cautious on Invesco QQQ Trust and watches a key turning point for Tesla Inc., bullish cycles continue to hold in CAVA Group Inc. and IREN Ltd. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Market just ripped +1.5% in 30 minutes on ā€œwar might end soonā€ headlines. My system is still bearish on $QQQ and cautious on $SPY. šŸ”» I’m long 63 stocks. If I’m right, my fund gets hurt short term. I walk through the data, BX Trend, and why this bounce may be exit liquidity ā¬‡ļø 2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA is still in a bull cycle… but we’re right on the edge. If price doesn’t bounce soon, the Monthly BX will close re
$QQQ System Still Bearish as $CAVA $IREN Maintain Bull Cycles
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-10 15:50

$NVDA Exit Signal as $POET $CROX $AMD Maintain Bullish Bias

Technical signals are diverging across key tech and growth names. While NVIDIA faces correction risk after a bearish monthly signal, bullish setups continue to build in POET Technologies Inc, Crocs Inc., and Advanced Micro Devices as momentum and trend indicators remain supportive. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Closed out all my $NVDA to start March. Setup is not pretty. Monthly BX closed red, signaling a likely correction, and I still expect a 10–15% move down into the Monthly Fair Value Range. You’re allowed to be wrong in your conviction. You are not allowed to bag hold. 2. $Crocs(CROX)$ CROX is starting to show early signs of a new bull cycle. Our THT Short Term strategy just printed a buy signal on this name. Hi
$NVDA Exit Signal as $POET $CROX $AMD Maintain Bullish Bias
avatarPeterDiCarlo
03-10 15:49

$META $NFLX Bear Cycles Persist as $CAVA Signals New Bull Run

Several major stocks are diverging in trend direction as technical cycles reset. While Meta Platforms Inc. and Netflix Inc. remain trapped in bearish structures with rallies likely to fade, CAVA Group Inc. is flashing signals of a potential new bull cycle. 1. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ META trap was set and we called it. Our Monthly BX model has been bearish since November while price compressed. Earnings spike looked strong, but it did not change the rules, so we stayed flat. Base case: further downside toward $550 over the next 4–6 weeks. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ When a name is in a bear cycle, most bounces are traps. $NFLX Our Monthly BX system flipped this to sell in October 2025 after a long bull run. I
$META $NFLX Bear Cycles Persist as $CAVA Signals New Bull Run

Warning Signs for $QQQ, $ADBE Bottom Unconfirmed, $PLTR Rally Looks Like a Trap

Warning signals are emerging across several major tech names. $QQQ is showing macro-timeframe strength deterioration that historically precedes a 5–12% correction, $ADBE is seeing early buying but still lacks a confirmed long-term bottom, and $PLTR’s latest rally is raising concerns of a potential bull trap rather than a sustainable breakout. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Price compression + a red Monthly BX is not strength. It means strength is being removed on the macro timeframe. Our long term model removed its bullish outlook last month. I hope I’m wrong. But historically this setup leads to a 5% to 12% correction 82% of the time. 2. $Adobe(ADBE)$ I’ve been stalking an $ADBE bottom for a year. We’re seeing sho
Warning Signs for $QQQ, $ADBE Bottom Unconfirmed, $PLTR Rally Looks Like a Trap

NVDA sidelined, NFLX trap, DUOL & HIMS await bull cycles, AMR testing support

Market focus remains on selective entries: NVDA sidelined amid potential correction, NFLX shows short-term weakness, while DUOL and HIMS await confirmed bull cycles. Meanwhile, AMR presents a historical bounce opportunity at key support. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVDA flat on the day. As I said last week, I’ve closed all fund positions and shelved the bullish thesis for now. When the Monthly BX is red, it usually signals either compression or a correction. Neither is an environment I want to trade in. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ This $NFLX bounce looks like a trap. Big 2-week move up, but THT Monthly BX is still dark red and the short-term trend is down. That combo often leads to another selloff. I’ll wait for our long tr
NVDA sidelined, NFLX trap, DUOL & HIMS await bull cycles, AMR testing support

Mixed Signals: $TSLA Stable, $MSTR Still Bearish, $SPY Fighting Support

Markets show cautious tone: $TSLA remains supported and bullish, $MSTR may see a short-term rebound toward $190–$200, while $SPY tests critical support. Overall, mixed signals suggest careful positioning and close monitoring of trend shifts. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ TSLA compressing again on support. Still bullish. āœ… 2. $Strategy(MSTR)$ My system hasn’t been bullish on $MSTR since the breakdown in November. Since then, price has dumped and the Monthly BX keeps printing red. We likely put in a short term bottom and could see a push into the 190–200 area before rejection. I will NOT go long until my triggers are met. 3. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY still doi
Mixed Signals: $TSLA Stable, $MSTR Still Bearish, $SPY Fighting Support

$SPY & $HOOD Bearish, $MU Overextended, $JD Lessons in Risk Management

Key names are at critical junctures. $SPY teeters on a daily head-and-shoulders, $MU looks expensive in the short term, $JD highlights the importance of cutting losses, and $HOOD remains in a bearish cycle despite potential relief rallies. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Liquidity is hanging on for dear life. And $SPY is building a daily head and shoulders. If that neckline breaks, things could get ugly fast. 2. $Micron Technology(MU)$ I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think now is the time to buy $MU. Yes, trend is bullish and buyers are still in control. But short term, you’re paying an extreme premium. My ideal play is a 20% pullback, then looking to buy the dip. 3. $
$SPY & $HOOD Bearish, $MU Overextended, $JD Lessons in Risk Management

$HOOD & $NOW Bearish, $MSFT at Key Support, $RIVN Coiling in Buy Zone

Several major names are at pivotal levels. $HOOD and $NOW remain in bearish cycles despite bounce potential, $MSFT is reacting off major long-term support, and $RIVN continues compressing inside a developing buy range. 1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ HOOD is still in a Bear Cycle in my system. Monthly BX is dark red, so trend stays down, but a relief rally into the $60 area is possible. Monthly Bias is often a strong support zone, but I’m still on the sidelines. I only buy when there is real pressure in the market, not on ā€œdiscountā€ alone. 2. $ServiceNow(NOW)$ NOW is building a solid base and a move back toward $140–$150 is possible. I am not buying yet āŒ My system is still bearish: Monthly BX is dark red and sellers
$HOOD & $NOW Bearish, $MSFT at Key Support, $RIVN Coiling in Buy Zone

$AAPL & $AMD Test Support, $PLTR Trap Risk, $PLUG Diverges

Mixed signals across the board. $PLUG is pushing higher against market weakness, while $AAPL and $AMD sit at critical support with Monthly BX still green. Meanwhile, $PLTR’s bounce may be short-lived as broader signals remain bearish. 1. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ In a sea of red, $PLUG is pushing up stream 2. $Apple(AAPL)$ AAPL doing everything it can to stay bullish. Trend is still green and the Monthly BX is holding green. Both point to a potential bounce. If this support gives way and MBX flips, I am looking for a 10% to 12% correction. 3. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ AMD clinging to support with the Monthly BX still green. We’re at a critical make-or-break level. Fo
$AAPL & $AMD Test Support, $PLTR Trap Risk, $PLUG Diverges

$TSLA, $NVO, $NVDA / $QQQ Highlight Critical Monthly BX Signals

March is shaping up as a pivotal month for these major names. Monthly BX readings show $TSLA at a key bounce point, $NVO experiencing a decisive rotation, and $NVDA / $QQQ flashing cautionary bearish signals. Data-driven moves are crucial—protect capital, not feelings. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ If $TSLA is going to bounce, this is the spot. Huge month coming up: without strong follow-through, Monthly BX can close dark red and flip the script. For now, all our criteria are still met, so I remain bullish on $TSLA. 2. $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ I just took a 27% loss on $NVO … and I’d still take that trade again. BX was bullish, criteria was met, then the stock nuked and Monthly BX flipped red. I cut it and rotate
$TSLA, $NVO, $NVDA / $QQQ Highlight Critical Monthly BX Signals

$MSFT $NVDA $NFLX $QQQ signal caution with potential traps and corrections

This week’s scan shows $MSFT nearing historical support, $NVDA and $QQQ flashing bearish monthly setups, and $NFLX’s recent rally may be a bull trap. 1. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ MSFT is coming into major support. The monthly bias has been a strong long-term buy zone for this stock historically. But I’m not buying yet. Monthly BX is still red, so I wait for the system to confirm before going long. āœ… 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I’m selling all my $NVDA Monday šŸ”» Monthly BX just flipped dark red after months of chop. Historically this setup often leads to 20–30% corrections or months of dead money. 3. $Netflix(NFLX)$ After getting crushed for months, $NFLX just ripped ~30% in a week…
$MSFT $NVDA $NFLX $QQQ signal caution with potential traps and corrections

Rules Over Hope $NVDA $AVGO Cut as $QQQ Weakens

Technical risk is rising across mega-cap tech as multiple Monthly BX signals flip dark red. While this doesn’t guarantee a crash, history suggests elevated odds of meaningful pullbacks or prolonged consolidation. In this environment, capital preservation and disciplined rotation matter more than conviction or hope. 1. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ QQQ just flashed a dark red, lower low on the Monthly BX. Historically, that usually means a 5%–10% correction before a real bounce. 🚨 No, I’m not shorting. We’ll just rotate: weak tech falls off, stronger sectors (including DOW names) come in. I’d rather miss an ugly bounce than ride a 10% burn. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ NVDA has a very real chance of a 20%–30% correction in the n
Rules Over Hope $NVDA $AVGO Cut as $QQQ Weakens

Monthly BX Turns Red $BABA $CVNA $META $ORCL at Risk

Markets are entering a decisive phase as multiple big-cap names flash dark red monthly signals. While some trends are still holding, momentum is clearly deteriorating and several charts are now setting up for potential corrections. This is a time for discipline, flexibility, and strict adherence to system rules rather than conviction-driven bias. 1. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Plenty of big tech just printed dark red Monthly BX, but $TSLA is still in Bull Cycle. March needs to bounce or we likely get a sharp correction. System is green so I’m still bullish, but I’m not married to this name. If Bear Cycle confirms, I’m out and the thesis is gone. 2. $Alibaba(BABA)$ BABA ripped 20% off the lows but that move is no
Monthly BX Turns Red $BABA $CVNA $META $ORCL at Risk

Will NVIDIA, Netflix & Bitcoin Face Rejection at Monthly Bias Levels?

All three charts are at critical inflection points. NVIDIA risks a 20% pullback if the monthly box closes decisively red. Netflix’s after-hours surge looks like a technical bounce, but higher-timeframe bias remains bearish unless structure flips. Bitcoin may see a short-term relief rally toward $80K, yet monthly sellers still dominate, suggesting any upside could be temporary rather than the start of a sustained trend. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ If $NVDA Monthly BX closes dark red tomorrow, my bullish thesis is dead. āŒ I won’t short it, but I’ll expect up to a 20% pullback toward the Monthly Bias like last time. Until then, there are better places for my capital. 2. $Netflix(NFLX)$ NFLX +10% after hours, perfect b
Will NVIDIA, Netflix & Bitcoin Face Rejection at Monthly Bias Levels?

Bear Signals in Focus: $MSTR $PLTR $HOOD $NFLX

Several high-beta leaders have rolled over, and our system has already flipped bearish on each of them. The key now isn’t emotion or dip-buying — it’s discipline. From $MSTR$’s 66% drop since the October bear signal, to $PLTR$, $HOOD$, and $NFLX$ breaking down from major highs, this is about managing downside, identifying potential bounce zones, and defining the exact conditions required to turn bullish again. Cut fast. Stay objective. Let the system lead. 1. $Strategy(MSTR)$ MSTR is down 66% since our bear signal in October. This is why we cut fast and move on. I will pay attention to: • How much further this selloff can go • Where I expect a bounce in the coming weeks • The exact signals I need to turn bullish again 2.
Bear Signals in Focus: $MSTR $PLTR $HOOD $NFLX

Key Market Setups This Week: $NVDA$ $NVO$ $SPY$ $POET$ $SOFI$

This week’s setups highlight a mix of macro trends, long-term bull cycles, and short-term signals. $NVDA$ leads the market momentum, $SPY$ shows the broader bull cycle intact, $POET$ flashes a short-term buy, while $NVO$ reminds us that even strong systems take losses, and $SOFI$ risks a near-term correction. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Earnings this week isn't important for just $NVDA … but the entire market. 🚨 $NVDA is in a macro bull cycle and my long‑term model is targeting $220 in the next 90 days. 2. $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ Closing my $NVO for about a 30% loss… and I’d still take this setup every time Strategy Results $NVO: 25 trades, 2,770% ROI, 41% win rate. 3. $SPDR S&a
Key Market Setups This Week: $NVDA$ $NVO$ $SPY$ $POET$ $SOFI$

Even Winning Systems Take Losses $NVO$

You can have the best system in the world and still get punched in the face. No strategy is immune to losses. 🩸 $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ checked every box for us last month: • Trend showing clean potential reversal • Monthly BX closing with strength • All criteria aligned for a long We took the trade. Then it dropped over 30%. There was nothing to ā€œfix.ā€ No tweak. No magic filter. Just a normal loss inside a winning system. If your criteria is met, you take the trade and you trade the system. Period. We sized it correctly, so the fund is fine. Still sucks. Losing always does. But there is no version of this game where you avoid it. You manage risk, take the kick in the balls, and move on to the next setup. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA to
Even Winning Systems Take Losses $NVO$

NVDA Earnings Decide QQQ Breakout or Correction

Big week for tech. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ earnings + $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ at key inflection. Our long-term model still has us in a Bull Cycle and is pricing in a push to new highs by March–April… IF the Monthly BX flips back to green by Friday. If it closes dark red, we kill the bullish outlook. This week it all comes down to NVDA earnings. Four months of compression are about to resolve. As of now, our Monthly BX model is still pricing in a breakout to new all time highs. But if price sells off and Monthly BX closes red on Friday, we flip bearish and start pricing in a correction toward $140. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited tradin
NVDA Earnings Decide QQQ Breakout or Correction

SPY Expansion Toward 700–720 or Thesis Fails

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ finishing the week green but still compressing. We’ve got a 1B share node and point of control parked right here. That is real size. Long term model stays bullish. Still targeting 700–720 by end of March. Remember: the longer the compression, the bigger the expansion. If this starts to roll and Monthly BX flips red, the bullish thesis is gone. No hesitation. PS: Everyone’s calling for a stock market crash SPY āŒ I’m not there yet. My system still has SPY in a bull cycle, but if one key signal flips, I’m looking for a 10 correction For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
SPY Expansion Toward 700–720 or Thesis Fails

Go to Tiger App to see more news