Obigoot
Obigoot
Disciplined options trader: Daily cash-secured put selling for consistent premiums
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avatarObigoot
10-19 22:48
Nice recovery for AI and Semis stock. Moving forward, AI is around us and won't go away anytime soon. Everyone i know around me are either using or subscribing to one AI or another. But there will be a day when the hype dies down...but that day is not today, not this year, not next year (before March). Enjoy the green candles and stay safe, fellow investors. $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$  $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Micron Technology(MU)$  
avatarObigoot
10-19 19:44
Nasdaq futures are up over 1% and names like Nvidia are bouncing in premarket as buyers step back in. Last week’s chip rout was the longest losing streak since 2008, driven by worries that AI data-center spending (and the debt behind it) won’t pay off fast enough. But dig into Friday’s options tape and the panic looks less pure: for some stocks, option prices climbed even while the share price barely moved — classic institutional put-buying for insurance, not forced selling. That kind of hedging often marks the peak of fear. This week’s earnings from Meta, Texas Instruments and others will show whether the revenue is finally catching up to the spending. My take is, highly likely.
avatarObigoot
10-18 14:31
【Voting Post】Rumors of an "AI Black Monday"? Here is what you need to know.  After months of unprecedented momentum, the AI trade is facing its biggest test yet. Big tech and chip stocks are seeing heavy profit-taking, and macro fears are sparking talk of a wider market reset. Why the sudden pressure on Semis & AI? 🔹 Valuation Reality Check: Investors want to see real revenue, not just huge capex promises. 🔹 Higher Rates & Inflation: Borrowing costs are staying elevated, weighing on high-multiple growth stocks. 🔹 Crowded Trade Unwind: Institutional funds are taking profits and moving to safety. Whether this turns into a deeper correction or creates prime dip-buying opportunities comes down to upcoming big tech earnings.  Drop your market prediction in the comments: 🟢 Temporary dip – b
avatarObigoot
10-16

16 Oct - High Inflation, AI buildout worries

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just eased the pressure on rate-hike bets—and markets are breathing a little easier… but the AI trade is still on shaky ground. Speaking in Bangkok, Warsh avoided any urgent signal for tighter policy despite this week’s hotter-than-expected inflation readings. Traders are scaling back October hike odds, the dollar is softer, and U.S. futures are drifting higher after Thursday’s rebound. Yet CoreWeave and other leveraged AI infrastructure names remain under pressure amid rising borrowing costs. Semiconductors have been weak this week, with Nvidia, TSMC’s cautious tone, and valuation worries weighing on the group. Investors are rotating into healthcare and defensives instead. The Fed can stay patient for now—that’s supporting risk assets—but the funding math for the AI
16 Oct - High Inflation, AI buildout worries
avatarObigoot
10-16
Hot PPI data? The bulls couldn't care less.  Yesterday’s PPI report came in way hotter than expected (core inflation surged), causing an initial knee-jerk dump in tech and $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  . Bears had their fun for about 5 minutes before the dip-buyers aggressively stepped back in.  Key takeaways from yesterday's session: • Bulls are relentless: Dip buyers ate up the early inflation scare almost instantly. • Tech & AI Resilience ($ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$  ): High-beta tech absorbed macro headlines with ease and rallied right back up. • Semis Leading ($Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Sh
avatarObigoot
10-15

Hot Inflation + Rate-Hike Fears (Tech/AI Selloff)

Inflation just slapped the AI trade in the face — and the market is still reeling. Yesterday’s September CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7% year-over-year (vs. 3.6% forecast and 3.4% previously). Core was also sticky. That immediately raised the odds of more Fed rate hikes, sending the Nasdaq down ~1.9% and the S&P 500 down ~1.1% — its worst day since July. AI and semi names took the biggest hits (Nvidia, AMD, CoreWeave and others sold off hard) because higher rates make the massive AI spending boom more expensive to finance. Futures are still weak this morning as the selloff continues. Watch today’s PPI, retail sales, and jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET for the next signal on whether inflation is cooling or staying hot.
Hot Inflation + Rate-Hike Fears (Tech/AI Selloff)
avatarObigoot
10-15
TSMC Crushes Earnings — Market Still Selling Semis $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   just delivered another blockbuster AI quarter… and the chip stocks are still getting crushed. The world’s top chip foundry reported record Q3 profit of ~$23.6 billion, up nearly 69% year-over-year, with revenue surging ~51%. It beat expectations and guided for strong Q4 growth, saying demand for leading-edge AI chips has “no ceiling.” Yet the broader semiconductor complex remains under pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been sliding for days, Asia’s chip-heavy markets (especially South Korea) are getting hammered, and US tech futures are lower again. Investors are more focused on higher borrowing costs and questions about ho
avatarObigoot
10-15
【Voting Post】$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ and many other tech names like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Micron Technology(MU)$  $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  all taking a beatdown after the CPI numbers came in hotter than expected yesterday. High-borrowing tech & AI play getting hit from both sides—macro rate pressures and surging bond yields. What’s your game plan right now? $CRWV 20261106 65.0 PUT$  
avatarObigoot
10-14
Wall Street is holding its breath for the number that could reset Fed expectations this afternoon. September CPI drops at 8:30 a.m. ET. (Singapore 8.30pm). Consensus looks for headline inflation to tick up to 3.6% year-over-year (from 3.4%) and core to 2.5% (from 2.4%). With the 10-year yield already hovering near 5.2% and the Fed still signaling at least one more hike is possible this year, a hotter print would pressure rate-sensitive stocks and keep bond yields elevated. A softer surprise could give equities room to bounce. My personal opinion will be 3.6% for headline and core inflation 2.6%. Watch energy, shelter, and the core monthly figure—those will move the tape. $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$   $B
avatarObigoot
10-14
🔥 CPI DROPS TODAY — Here’s the quick estimate everyone’s watching US CPI (September data) releases today at 8:30 AM ET. Market consensus estimates: Headline CPI: +0.6% month-over-month → 3.6% year-over-year (up from 3.4% last month) Core CPI (ex food & energy): +0.2% month-over-month → ~2.4–2.5% year-over-year Likely range most expect: Headline YoY: 3.5% – 3.7% Core YoY: 2.4% – 2.5% Energy prices are the main reason headline is expected to tick higher. Core is expected to stay relatively calm. Markets will react fast to any surprise — hotter = higher yields / stronger dollar; cooler = the opposite. Simple as that. Watch the number. What do you think will be the numbers for CPI? $TQQQ 20261030 60.0 PUT$  
avatarObigoot
10-13
This is genuinely frustrating. KOSPI got hammered over 6% and semiconductor names bled hard, with a big chunk of the selling pinned on Broadcom CEO Hock Tan’s comments. Tan pointed out that a lot of AI investors set extreme expectations with almost no real understanding of what they’re buying — especially frontier models — and said it can feel “almost like they are in a casino.” That’s a blunt but fair observation about froth. What got amplified was the casino-gambler headline version. Other coverage (including the Hong Kong Economic Journal) framed the same remarks differently: more about investors overreacting to short-term data, while both Tan and Intel’s Lip-Bu Tan were actually stressing that demand is still crushing supply for years. A Goldman trader called the “gamblers” take “wildl
avatarObigoot
10-13
$SOXL 20261106 85.0 PUT$   Semis just got smoked. SOX down ~2.7%. Memory names led the drop. Nvidia, AMD, Micron, SK Hynix all red. Why? Chinese chipmaker CXMT said it’s coming for server DRAM by end of 2026. OpenAI’s revenue run-rate came in softer than the hype. $50b instead of $70b. Yields still above 5%. Classic sentiment flush after a massive run. Short-term traders: respect the volatility. Long-term investors: this still looks more like positioning than a broken AI cycle. Same movie we’ve seen before. The ones who panic sell usually miss the rebound.
avatarObigoot
10-12
Most people buy stocks and hope they go up. Smart money sells puts… and gets paid to wait. Stocks: You pay full price, sit on capital, and pray the chart is nice to you. Options (short puts): You collect premium upfront, define your risk, and only buy the stock if it drops to a price you already like. It’s the difference between chasing the market… and making the market pay you for the privilege of owning something later. While everyone else is averaging up, you’re getting paid to set your own entry. That’s not gambling. That’s strategy. Who’s still buying shares the hard way? $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$  
avatarObigoot
10-10
Taming the 3x Monster: How to Generate Income on SOXL and TQQQ Without Getting Eaten Alive 3x leveraged ETFs like $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$  and $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$  are famous for destroying long-term buy-and-hold accounts. Driven by daily rebalancing, compounding math, and high expense fees, volatility decay acts like a persistent, hidden tax that quietly grinds down capital whenever the broader market chops sideways. However, where long-term holders see a death trap, disciplined options traders see an opportunity. Instead of buying the shares or attempting to out-guess short-term market direction, a growing subset of traders uses short-term, cash-sec
avatarObigoot
09-11
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08-24
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08-17
avatarObigoot
08-15
Calling a $20k put “a notable large trade” and writing “$0.02 million” is just dressing up a tiny position to manufacture drama. That’s not institutional flow — that’s barely a blip.
Option Focus | Circle Internet's $0.02 Million Put Buy at $55 Strike Signals Bearish Positioning as IV Percentile Sits at Just 16.73%
avatarObigoot
08-10
avatarObigoot
08-05

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