Obigoot
Disciplined options trader: Daily cash-secured put selling for consistent premiums
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Markets today feel like a three-way tug-of-war AI and chips are throwing a party, the Fed is hitting pause, and oil is crashing the vibe. SK Hynix just dropped absolute monster numbers — first-ever quarter over 100 trillion won in revenue and an eye-watering ~80% operating margin, powered by AI memory demand. On top of that, Broadcom locked in a $63 billion financing package to supply Anthropic with chips and networking gear. The AI buildout is still very much alive, and semiconductor stocks are feeling it. Meanwhile the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady today (3.75–4.00% range). All eyes shift to Kevin Warsh’s press conference for any signal on whether more hikes are still on the table before year-end. Sticky inflation (hello, oil) means the tone matters a lot. Speaking of
Today’s market is giving main-character energy… and also a little chaos. First, the numbers: Durable goods orders jumped 1.8% in September — stronger than expected. Transportation led the charge (+4.6%), while core capital goods orders rose a cooler 0.5%. Shipments of those core goods, though? Up 1.2%. Translation: companies are still ordering and actually receiving the expensive stuff, a lot of it tied to the AI build-out. Second, the plot twist: Anthropic filed its IPO paperwork and suddenly the AI trade woke up from its recent sulk. Chip stocks threw a mini party. Nvidia and friends said “we’re back… for now.” Third, the cliffhanger: The Fed starts its two-day meeting today. Rate decision drops tomorrow. Markets are basically yelling “please just hold,” but with firm data and sky-high A
Rollercoaster mode: ACTIVATE! If you’ve been looking at your tech portfolio recently, you might be wondering if the AI hype train just derailed. Micron, Nvidia, Broadcom, and friends took a bit of a tumble! Before anyone panics and sells their GPU collection, let’s unpack what’s actually happening: 1. First time? (Spoiler: It’s not!) If you think this is the first time AI and memory stocks have tanked, welcome to tech investing! Even during mega bull runs, these stocks regularly pull back 20% to 30%. It’s not a bug; it’s a standard feature. AI giants like Nvidia have survived dozens of these "shake-outs" on their way up, and memory chipmakers take investors on this exact wild ride all the time. 2. The Memory Market is the ultimate Drama Queen Memory stocks (DRAM, NAND, HBM) are historicall
CoreWeave ($CRWV) Breakdown: Tech Rocket vs. Debt Machine Thinking of buying the drop on CoreWeave? Here is what the numbers actually show: The Numbers (Fact Sheet) Current Stock Price: ~$52 – $53 per share (down 60%+ from peak) Market Cap: ~$29.9 Billion Q2 2026 Revenue: $2.58 Billion (+112% YoY) Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance: $12.4B – $13.2B Contracted Backlog: $104 Billion+ Total Debt Load: ~$72 Billion (vs. ~$77B total assets) Quarterly Net Loss: -$626 Million (driven by ~$640M in interest expenses alone) Is it Oversold Right Now? Yes, on pure revenue growth: Trades at ~2.3x 2026 revenue despite 100%+ YoY growth and a massive $104B backlog. No, on financial balance sheet risk: The market is discounting the stock due to a $2.5B+ annual debt servicing load
Bull or Bear Market now?
Your portfolio thinks it’s diversified. Your risk budget knows better. Semiconductors are only ~13% of the global stock market by weight… …but they’re eating ~20% of the entire risk capital. Tech overall? 28% of the index, 40% of the risk. That’s not diversification. That’s a high-beta AI casino wearing a passive-index costume. Low vol made everyone lever up. VaR models said “more size, king.” Now any shock → first thing sold = the chips. Vol rises → more selling → more vol. Snowball goes brrr. Fundamentals can be fine. Positioning doesn’t care. When 1/5 of global risk lives in semis, every wiggle becomes a forced-liquidation party. Welcome to 2026: the market is a semiconductor ETF with extra steps. Manage the risk, or the risk manages you. Do not over leverage.
$CRWV 20261023 60.0 PUT$ Will be "forced" to exercise$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ at $60 Will start selling Calls on Monday at above $60 weekly expiry. This whole AI and silicon debt and earnings have gone out of proportion. The Market is selling the fear now. This is the wheel strategy.
What a Bloodbath this week! And what exactly happened? Not even a dead cat bounce off the lowest and it keeps getting lower and lower. My personal opinion - institutions are hedging to safer place like bonds - that why you can see the bonds yields are down. Also, likely those who leverage are liquidated as well Stay safe everyone, think logically and do not buy on impulse and please trade within your limits. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$
CRWV UPDATE: Bargain Buy or Falling Knife? After climbing mountains to $140+, CoreWeave (CRWV) has pulled back into a massive support zone around $61.82! Here is what the technical chart is telling us: MACD: Bearish momentum is flattening after a steep drop, setting up a potential bullish crossover near oversold levels. RSI: Near 30-35—classic oversold territory. Key Support: $57.20 - $60.00 Upside Target: $75.00 - $80.00 relief bounce target. What's driving it? Heavy AI infrastructure CapEx digestion across tech, but cloud GPU demand remains massive long-term. Are you buying this dip or waiting for confirmation? $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2612(NQmain)$
Traders had plenty to digest over the last 48 hours as heavy corporate earnings, fluctuating crude oil prices, and major tech moves kept the order books buzzing. The Scorecard (Oct 21–22 Action) Dow Jones: Up +0.7% to ~52,856 S&P 500: Up +0.6% to ~7,757 Nasdaq Composite: Up +1.1% to ~26,702 as tech buyers stepped back in. Top Headlines and Market Movers AI Demand Hits the Throttle Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) surged over +9.5% after raising revenue expectations due to relentless demand for AI infrastructure platforms. Defense and Industrial Beats Earnings beats from 3M (+5.8%) and Northrop Grumman (+4.6%) provided strong support for blue-chip indices, reassuring investors on industrial cash flows. Oil Prices Drift Amid Geopolitical Watchi
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@Obigoot:To Win, You Must First Learn How to Lose. Ah Bao（阿寶）, under the mentorship of Ye-shu (爺叔） in the drama "Blossoms Shanghai" (繁花), drops some of the most brutal, realistic wisdom I’ve heard on wealth creation. Pointing at the Empire State Building, he said: "Running from the ground to the top takes an hour. Jumping from the roof takes only 8.8 seconds." Ye-shu followed it up with the ultimate truth of the market: To make money from stocks, you first have to learn to lose. In our current world of volatile crypto and high-stakes trading, too many people are obsessed with the hour-long ascent—the gains, the clout, the luxury lobsters. They completely ignore how quickly gravity works on the way down. The drama teaches that survival isn’t about being the richest; it’s about having the stoma
[Miser] ALERT: THE SPACE COMPANY IS NO LONGER A SPACE COMPANY SpaceX just dropped their Q3 earnings and basically yelled, "Rockets? Oh yeah, those things we use to carry our REAL moneymaker—AI SERVER RACKS!" Here is the quick breakdown of how SPCX just saved the entire AI bull market from an existential crisis: 1. "Forget Satellites, We're a Data Center Now" SpaceX's AI compute unit just pulled in $7.56 BILLION this quarter. That is an 830% jump year-over-year. It officially flipped Starlink to become their largest revenue driver. Elon looked at beaming internet to rural cabins and said, "Cool hobby, but have you tried renting GPUs to big tech?" 😂 2. Capex goes BRRRRR While Wall Street was biting its nails worrying that
While chip stocks were getting crushed, the biggest leveraged semiconductor ETF just sucked in record money. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) finally snapped its eight-day losing streak Monday — its longest since 2008 after a roughly 15.7% slide. Nasdaq jumped 1.11% as Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Micron, and memory names bounced. But the more interesting story is who was buying the dip and who is still betting against the group. Biggest Inflows: SOXL Dominated The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF (SOXL) became the clear magnet for aggressive dip-buying: - Roughly $3.8 billion in inflows in the week ending around Oct 16 — on pace for its largest weekly intake on record. - Single-day hauls hit $1.7B+ on multiple sessions. - Over a short stretch it took in about $6.4–6.8 billion net
Nice recovery for AI and Semis stock. Moving forward, AI is around us and won't go away anytime soon. Everyone i know around me are either using or subscribing to one AI or another. But there will be a day when the hype dies down...but that day is not today, not this year, not next year (before March). Enjoy the green candles and stay safe, fellow investors. $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$
Nasdaq futures are up over 1% and names like Nvidia are bouncing in premarket as buyers step back in. Last week’s chip rout was the longest losing streak since 2008, driven by worries that AI data-center spending (and the debt behind it) won’t pay off fast enough. But dig into Friday’s options tape and the panic looks less pure: for some stocks, option prices climbed even while the share price barely moved — classic institutional put-buying for insurance, not forced selling. That kind of hedging often marks the peak of fear. This week’s earnings from Meta, Texas Instruments and others will show whether the revenue is finally catching up to the spending. My take is, highly likely.
【Voting Post】Rumors of an "AI Black Monday"? Here is what you need to know. After months of unprecedented momentum, the AI trade is facing its biggest test yet. Big tech and chip stocks are seeing heavy profit-taking, and macro fears are sparking talk of a wider market reset. Why the sudden pressure on Semis & AI? 🔹 Valuation Reality Check: Investors want to see real revenue, not just huge capex promises. 🔹 Higher Rates & Inflation: Borrowing costs are staying elevated, weighing on high-multiple growth stocks. 🔹 Crowded Trade Unwind: Institutional funds are taking profits and moving to safety. Whether this turns into a deeper correction or creates prime dip-buying opportunities comes down to upcoming big tech earnings. Drop your market prediction in the comments: 🟢 Temporary dip – b
16 Oct - High Inflation, AI buildout worries
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just eased the pressure on rate-hike bets—and markets are breathing a little easier… but the AI trade is still on shaky ground. Speaking in Bangkok, Warsh avoided any urgent signal for tighter policy despite this week’s hotter-than-expected inflation readings. Traders are scaling back October hike odds, the dollar is softer, and U.S. futures are drifting higher after Thursday’s rebound. Yet CoreWeave and other leveraged AI infrastructure names remain under pressure amid rising borrowing costs. Semiconductors have been weak this week, with Nvidia, TSMC’s cautious tone, and valuation worries weighing on the group. Investors are rotating into healthcare and defensives instead. The Fed can stay patient for now—that’s supporting risk assets—but the funding math for the AI
Hot PPI data? The bulls couldn't care less. Yesterday’s PPI report came in way hotter than expected (core inflation surged), causing an initial knee-jerk dump in tech and $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ . Bears had their fun for about 5 minutes before the dip-buyers aggressively stepped back in. Key takeaways from yesterday's session: • Bulls are relentless: Dip buyers ate up the early inflation scare almost instantly. • Tech & AI Resilience ($ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ ): High-beta tech absorbed macro headlines with ease and rallied right back up. • Semis Leading ($Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Sh
Hot Inflation + Rate-Hike Fears (Tech/AI Selloff)
Inflation just slapped the AI trade in the face — and the market is still reeling. Yesterday’s September CPI came in hotter than expected at 3.7% year-over-year (vs. 3.6% forecast and 3.4% previously). Core was also sticky. That immediately raised the odds of more Fed rate hikes, sending the Nasdaq down ~1.9% and the S&P 500 down ~1.1% — its worst day since July. AI and semi names took the biggest hits (Nvidia, AMD, CoreWeave and others sold off hard) because higher rates make the massive AI spending boom more expensive to finance. Futures are still weak this morning as the selloff continues. Watch today’s PPI, retail sales, and jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET for the next signal on whether inflation is cooling or staying hot.
TSMC Crushes Earnings — Market Still Selling Semis $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ just delivered another blockbuster AI quarter… and the chip stocks are still getting crushed. The world’s top chip foundry reported record Q3 profit of ~$23.6 billion, up nearly 69% year-over-year, with revenue surging ~51%. It beat expectations and guided for strong Q4 growth, saying demand for leading-edge AI chips has “no ceiling.” Yet the broader semiconductor complex remains under pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been sliding for days, Asia’s chip-heavy markets (especially South Korea) are getting hammered, and US tech futures are lower again. Investors are more focused on higher borrowing costs and questions about ho
【Voting Post】$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ and many other tech names like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ all taking a beatdown after the CPI numbers came in hotter than expected yesterday. High-borrowing tech & AI play getting hit from both sides—macro rate pressures and surging bond yields. What’s your game plan right now? $CRWV 20261106 65.0 PUT$
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