hhyw personal page - To The Moon

hhyw

hhyw

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2025-03-10

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2023-10-30

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2023-06-27

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2023-06-26

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2023-06-25

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2023-06-24

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2023-06-23

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2023-06-23

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2023-06-22

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2023-06-21

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2023-06-21

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2023-06-20

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2023-06-18

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2023-06-17

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2023-06-16

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2023-06-14

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2023-06-13

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Thanks","listText":"Pls like &amp; response. Thanks","text":"Pls like & response. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/107431815","repostId":"1175032729","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175032729","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620520193,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175032729?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-09 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Be wary of a \"nonlinear\" recovery in U.S. employment; market volatility may intensify in May and June.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175032729","media":"钟正生经济分析","summary":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4","content":"<p>Looking at the month-on-month figures, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. Event: The United States added 266,000 non-farm payrolls in April, with an unemployment rate of 6.1% and a labor force participation rate of 61.7%.</p><p><b>1. With April's non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations, which industries are dragging down the market?</b>The U.S. April non-farm payroll data was far lower than the previous value and expectations, with a job gap exceeding 8.2 million. Non-farm payrolls increased by 266,000 in April, compared to market expectations of nearly 1 million. The initial figure for March was 916,000, and the revised figure was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation, and part-time jobs lagged behind, while the leisure and hotel industries performed exceptionally well. The number of employees in the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000, mainly due to the manufacturing sector; The loss of 74,000 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry may be related to disruptions to international supply chains; The professional and business services industry (“temporary support services”) saw a sharp decline of 114,000 people, but this may be a positive sign that “part-time” workers are beginning to shift to “full-time” workers. The leisure and hospitality industry saw a significant increase of 331,000 people, compared to 206,000 in the previous period, reflecting the relaxation of restrictions on the movement of people by various U.S. states.</p><p><b>2. The preliminary April non-farm payroll reading may not be a complete picture of the U.S. employment situation.</b>First, labor force participation rates improved marginally in April, which is also the reason for the rising unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to an increase of 430,000 new laborers. Some newly entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will lead to an increase in the \"numerator and denominator\" and a temporary rise in the unemployment rate. Second, the number of non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims is relatively optimistic. The ADP private sector added 742,000 jobs in April, up from 565,000 in the previous month. The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic began. Third, the accuracy of preliminary non-farm payroll data is limited. The non-farm payrolls report is revised monthly. Regarding the April data, disruptions such as supply chain disruptions may be temporary, while the decrease in the number of \"part-time\" workers and the increase in employment in the hotel and tourism industry are also positive signs. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to \"linearly extrapolate\" this as a trend.</p><p><b>3. Average hourly wages continued to grow rapidly month-on-month in April, and the \"counter-effect\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>The year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-farm payrolls and non-management personnel fell sharply to 1.15% in April, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-farm payrolls and non-management personnel rose from $24.15 to $25.16. Looking at the month-on-month figures, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury Department has accelerated its spending since March, with the TGA (Treasury General Account) shrinking by about $300 billion in March. Government spending may have a \"counter-effect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high growth in residents' income, but at the same time, the willingness to work may be suppressed, resulting in a slow recovery in the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. As a result, companies have to raise wages to make up for the labor shortage.</p><p><b>4. April non-farm payroll data was weak, but the market reacted positively.</b>The market is pleased with the weak employment data, believing that the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain easing in the short term, leading to a marginal increase in risk appetite and a further strengthening of expectations for a depreciating dollar and inflation. Following the release of non-farm payroll data on May 7, the S&P 500 index hit a new high; The bond market reacted positively, with the 10-year US Treasury yield plunging intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; the US Dollar Index dives.</p><p><b>5. Be wary of the \"non-linear\" recovery in US employment and related risks, as market volatility may intensify in May and June.</b>Given the improvement of the US pandemic and the continued progress of vaccination, the weaker employment data in April than in March was somewhat unexpected, suggesting that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"nonlinear\". There are three main risks to a \"non-linear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which can easily lead to misjudgments. The market believes that weak employment data will reduce the probability of the Federal Reserve tightening policy, leading to a proactive embrace of risk. One possible scenario is that May employment data may be significantly higher than expected, at which time market tensions regarding the shift in monetary policy may peak, triggering market volatility. Second, a \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation more quickly. As \"herd immunity\" approaches in the United States (we expect it to be around July), employment may recover in clusters, followed by a rapid rebound in economic activities such as production and consumption, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the divergence between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Federal Reserve's policies, which in turn can easily trigger market volatility. Our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year growth rate of US PCE may reach 3% in April and May this year. However, if employment recovery remains slow, the Federal Reserve will be caught in a dilemma between \"slow employment\" and \"rapid inflation.\" At the very least, it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to communicate with the market, and US stocks and other risky assets will be more likely to experience volatility.</p><p>1. April's non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations; which industries are dragging down the market?</p><p>The U.S. April non-farm payroll data was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the current job gap exceeds 8.2 million. The United States added 266,000 non-farm payrolls in April, compared with market expectations of nearly 1 million. The initial March reading was 916,000, and the revised reading was 770,000. The total number of non-farm payrolls in April was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous figure of 1.44 million. Currently, the total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States is 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation, and part-time jobs lagged behind, while the leisure and hotel industries performed exceptionally well. Of the 266,000 new employees in April, 234,000 came from the service sector, a decrease of more than half compared to March, 48,000 came from government departments, a decrease of about a quarter compared to March, while the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 compared to an increase of 166,000 in March. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by the manufacturing sector (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); The 74,000 job losses in the transportation and warehousing industry may be related to international supply chain disruptions, as the Federal Reserve had previously mentioned supply chain \"bottlenecks.\" The professional and business services industry saw a sharp decline of 79,000 people, including 114,400 in \"temporary support services,\" but this may be a positive sign that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to shift to \"full-time.\" According to a report by the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS), the number of people \"working part-time for economic reasons\" decreased by 580,000 due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hospitality industry saw a significant increase of 331,000 people, compared to 206,000 in the previous year, reflecting that U.S. states are beginning to ease restrictions on the movement of people (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. The preliminary April non-farm payrolls reading may not represent the full picture of the US employment situation.</p><p>The preliminary April non-farm payrolls reading may not be the full picture of the recovery pace of the US job market, and there are still a series of signals pointing to a marginal improvement in the US job market.</p><p>First, labor force participation in the United States improved marginally in April, which is also the reason for the rising unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) was 6.1% in April, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and the market expectation of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000, although the total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some newly entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will lead to an increase in the \"numerator and denominator\" and a temporary rise in the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (considering the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims is relatively optimistic. The \"Mini Non-Farm Payrolls\" (ADP Private Sector Employment) data, released the day before the non-farm payrolls data, showed that the United States added 742,000 jobs in April, up from 565,000 in the previous month (Chart 6). In the week ending May 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to decline to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic, although the figure was still 2.1 times the pre-pandemic level. In the week ending April 24, 3.69 million people in the United States continued to file for unemployment benefits, slightly higher than the previous figure of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-pandemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of preliminary non-farm payroll data is limited. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the non-farm payrolls report is revised monthly, and it is not recommended to regard data from a particular month as a potential trend. Based on the structural characteristics of the preliminary non-farm payroll data, we believe that disruptions such as supply chain disruptions may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time\" workers and the increase in employment in the hotel and tourism industry are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be \"linearly extrapolated\" as a trend.</p><p>3. Average hourly wages continued to grow rapidly month-on-month in April, and the \"counter-effect\" of fiscal stimulus warrants attention.</p><p>The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages slowed significantly in April, mainly due to the base, while real wages still grew rapidly month-on-month. The post-pandemic labor market shortage has led to a significantly higher year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages for non-farm payrolls in the United States than in previous years, with average hourly wages for non-farm payrolls and non-management personnel increasing by 4.55% year-on-year in March. This growth rate dropped sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but it was largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-farm and non-management personnel rose from $24.15 to $25.16. Looking at the month-on-month increase, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8%, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Weekly working hours in April were the same as in March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's accelerated spending since March may have a \"counterproductive effect\" on the job market. It is worth noting that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department has been implementing the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction program, spending approximately $300 billion in March alone (Chart 10). In our previous report, \"Slow Employment and Rapid Inflation in the United States,\" we pointed out that the overall recovery of the US job market is relatively slow, which contradicts the \"rapid recovery\" shown by other economic indicators. This is partly related to the strong fiscal stimulus in the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high growth in residents' income, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in a slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. As a result, enterprises have had to raise wages to make up for the labor shortage (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>April non-farm payroll data was weak, but the market reacted positively.</p><p>The market is clearly pleased with the weak US employment data, believing that the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain its easing in the short term, leading to a marginal increase in risk appetite and a further strengthening of expectations for dollar depreciation and inflation. Following the release of non-farm payroll data on May 7, all three major stock indexes rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.88%, 0.74%, and 0.66%, respectively (Chart 12). The bond market reacted positively, with the 10-year US Treasury yield plunging during the session before rebounding, ultimately closing up 2 basis points, with the 10-year TIPS yield falling by 2 basis points (Chart 13). Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); the US Dollar Index shares plunged to close at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5. Be wary of a \"nonlinear\" recovery in US employment.</p><p>We believe that we should be wary of a \"non-linear\" recovery in U.S. employment and the potential risks it may bring in the next 1-2 months (May-June).</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April was significantly weaker than in March, a phenomenon that seems somewhat unexpected given the improvement in the U.S. pandemic and the continued advancement of vaccinations. We have observed foreign media reports that American residents' concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic remain a major reason hindering employment recovery. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disrupted by unexpected events (such as severe weather in February and supply chain disruptions in April). All of this means that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"nonlinear\".</p><p>There are three main risks to the \"non-linear\" recovery of the US economy: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which can easily lead to misjudgments. For example, if the market perceives weak employment data, the probability of the Federal Reserve tightening policy will decrease, and the market will then proactively embrace risk. The market's forecast of 1 million new non-farm payrolls in April, based on March's non-farm payrolls data of 916,000, is one example.<b>One possible scenario is that market expectations for May employment data are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>At that time, market anxiety regarding the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy may reach its peak, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, a \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation more quickly.</b>If the COVID-19 pandemic is the main reason hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, then it can be expected that as \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July, see the report \"How far is the United States from 'herd immunity'?\"), employment may recover in clusters, followed by a rapid rebound in economic activities such as production and consumption, and a rapid rise in inflation indicators.</p><p><b>Third, the divergence between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Federal Reserve's policies, which in turn can easily trigger market volatility.</b>Based on the latest March PCE data and the Federal Reserve's forecast for year-on-year PCE growth in 2021 (median forecast of 2.4%), our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year PCE growth rate in April-May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if employment recovery remains slow, the Federal Reserve will be caught in a dilemma between \"slow employment\" and \"rapid inflation.\" At the very least, it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to communicate with the market, and US stocks and other risky assets will be prone to volatility, which warrants vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Be wary of a \"nonlinear\" recovery in U.S. employment; market volatility may intensify in May and June.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe wary of a \"nonlinear\" recovery in U.S. employment; market volatility may intensify in May and June.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-09 08:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Looking at the month-on-month figures, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. Event: The United States added 266,000 non-farm payrolls in April, with an unemployment rate of 6.1% and a labor force participation rate of 61.7%.</p><p><b>1. With April's non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations, which industries are dragging down the market?</b>The U.S. April non-farm payroll data was far lower than the previous value and expectations, with a job gap exceeding 8.2 million. Non-farm payrolls increased by 266,000 in April, compared to market expectations of nearly 1 million. The initial figure for March was 916,000, and the revised figure was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation, and part-time jobs lagged behind, while the leisure and hotel industries performed exceptionally well. The number of employees in the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000, mainly due to the manufacturing sector; The loss of 74,000 jobs in the transportation and warehousing industry may be related to disruptions to international supply chains; The professional and business services industry (“temporary support services”) saw a sharp decline of 114,000 people, but this may be a positive sign that “part-time” workers are beginning to shift to “full-time” workers. The leisure and hospitality industry saw a significant increase of 331,000 people, compared to 206,000 in the previous period, reflecting the relaxation of restrictions on the movement of people by various U.S. states.</p><p><b>2. The preliminary April non-farm payroll reading may not be a complete picture of the U.S. employment situation.</b>First, labor force participation rates improved marginally in April, which is also the reason for the rising unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) in April was 6.1%, higher than the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor force participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to an increase of 430,000 new laborers. Some newly entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will lead to an increase in the \"numerator and denominator\" and a temporary rise in the unemployment rate. Second, the number of non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims is relatively optimistic. The ADP private sector added 742,000 jobs in April, up from 565,000 in the previous month. The latest number of initial jobless claims fell to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic began. Third, the accuracy of preliminary non-farm payroll data is limited. The non-farm payrolls report is revised monthly. Regarding the April data, disruptions such as supply chain disruptions may be temporary, while the decrease in the number of \"part-time\" workers and the increase in employment in the hotel and tourism industry are also positive signs. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to \"linearly extrapolate\" this as a trend.</p><p><b>3. Average hourly wages continued to grow rapidly month-on-month in April, and the \"counter-effect\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>The year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-farm payrolls and non-management personnel fell sharply to 1.15% in April, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-farm payrolls and non-management personnel rose from $24.15 to $25.16. Looking at the month-on-month figures, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury Department has accelerated its spending since March, with the TGA (Treasury General Account) shrinking by about $300 billion in March. Government spending may have a \"counter-effect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high growth in residents' income, but at the same time, the willingness to work may be suppressed, resulting in a slow recovery in the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. As a result, companies have to raise wages to make up for the labor shortage.</p><p><b>4. April non-farm payroll data was weak, but the market reacted positively.</b>The market is pleased with the weak employment data, believing that the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain easing in the short term, leading to a marginal increase in risk appetite and a further strengthening of expectations for a depreciating dollar and inflation. Following the release of non-farm payroll data on May 7, the S&P 500 index hit a new high; The bond market reacted positively, with the 10-year US Treasury yield plunging intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; the US Dollar Index dives.</p><p><b>5. Be wary of the \"non-linear\" recovery in US employment and related risks, as market volatility may intensify in May and June.</b>Given the improvement of the US pandemic and the continued progress of vaccination, the weaker employment data in April than in March was somewhat unexpected, suggesting that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"nonlinear\". There are three main risks to a \"non-linear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which can easily lead to misjudgments. The market believes that weak employment data will reduce the probability of the Federal Reserve tightening policy, leading to a proactive embrace of risk. One possible scenario is that May employment data may be significantly higher than expected, at which time market tensions regarding the shift in monetary policy may peak, triggering market volatility. Second, a \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation more quickly. As \"herd immunity\" approaches in the United States (we expect it to be around July), employment may recover in clusters, followed by a rapid rebound in economic activities such as production and consumption, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the divergence between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Federal Reserve's policies, which in turn can easily trigger market volatility. Our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year growth rate of US PCE may reach 3% in April and May this year. However, if employment recovery remains slow, the Federal Reserve will be caught in a dilemma between \"slow employment\" and \"rapid inflation.\" At the very least, it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to communicate with the market, and US stocks and other risky assets will be more likely to experience volatility.</p><p>1. April's non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations; which industries are dragging down the market?</p><p>The U.S. April non-farm payroll data was far lower than the previous value and expectations, and the current job gap exceeds 8.2 million. The United States added 266,000 non-farm payrolls in April, compared with market expectations of nearly 1 million. The initial March reading was 916,000, and the revised reading was 770,000. The total number of non-farm payrolls in April was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous figure of 1.44 million. Currently, the total number of non-farm payrolls in the United States is 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation, and part-time jobs lagged behind, while the leisure and hotel industries performed exceptionally well. Of the 266,000 new employees in April, 234,000 came from the service sector, a decrease of more than half compared to March, 48,000 came from government departments, a decrease of about a quarter compared to March, while the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 compared to an increase of 166,000 in March. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by the manufacturing sector (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); The 74,000 job losses in the transportation and warehousing industry may be related to international supply chain disruptions, as the Federal Reserve had previously mentioned supply chain \"bottlenecks.\" The professional and business services industry saw a sharp decline of 79,000 people, including 114,400 in \"temporary support services,\" but this may be a positive sign that \"part-time\" workers are beginning to shift to \"full-time.\" According to a report by the U.S. Department of Labor (BLS), the number of people \"working part-time for economic reasons\" decreased by 580,000 due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hospitality industry saw a significant increase of 331,000 people, compared to 206,000 in the previous year, reflecting that U.S. states are beginning to ease restrictions on the movement of people (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2. The preliminary April non-farm payrolls reading may not represent the full picture of the US employment situation.</p><p>The preliminary April non-farm payrolls reading may not be the full picture of the recovery pace of the US job market, and there are still a series of signals pointing to a marginal improvement in the US job market.</p><p>First, labor force participation in the United States improved marginally in April, which is also the reason for the rising unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) was 6.1% in April, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and the market expectation of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the U.S. labor force participation rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to a new labor force of 430,000, although the total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some newly entering the labor market may not have found jobs yet, which will lead to an increase in the \"numerator and denominator\" and a temporary rise in the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (considering the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims is relatively optimistic. The \"Mini Non-Farm Payrolls\" (ADP Private Sector Employment) data, released the day before the non-farm payrolls data, showed that the United States added 742,000 jobs in April, up from 565,000 in the previous month (Chart 6). In the week ending May 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States continued to decline to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic, although the figure was still 2.1 times the pre-pandemic level. In the week ending April 24, 3.69 million people in the United States continued to file for unemployment benefits, slightly higher than the previous figure of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-pandemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of preliminary non-farm payroll data is limited. On May 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the non-farm payrolls report is revised monthly, and it is not recommended to regard data from a particular month as a potential trend. Based on the structural characteristics of the preliminary non-farm payroll data, we believe that disruptions such as supply chain disruptions may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time\" workers and the increase in employment in the hotel and tourism industry are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be \"linearly extrapolated\" as a trend.</p><p>3. Average hourly wages continued to grow rapidly month-on-month in April, and the \"counter-effect\" of fiscal stimulus warrants attention.</p><p>The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages slowed significantly in April, mainly due to the base, while real wages still grew rapidly month-on-month. The post-pandemic labor market shortage has led to a significantly higher year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages for non-farm payrolls in the United States than in previous years, with average hourly wages for non-farm payrolls and non-management personnel increasing by 4.55% year-on-year in March. This growth rate dropped sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but it was largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-farm and non-management personnel rose from $24.15 to $25.16. Looking at the month-on-month increase, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8%, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Weekly working hours in April were the same as in March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department's accelerated spending since March may have a \"counterproductive effect\" on the job market. It is worth noting that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department has been implementing the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction program, spending approximately $300 billion in March alone (Chart 10). In our previous report, \"Slow Employment and Rapid Inflation in the United States,\" we pointed out that the overall recovery of the US job market is relatively slow, which contradicts the \"rapid recovery\" shown by other economic indicators. This is partly related to the strong fiscal stimulus in the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high growth in residents' income, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in a slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate. As a result, enterprises have had to raise wages to make up for the labor shortage (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>April non-farm payroll data was weak, but the market reacted positively.</p><p>The market is clearly pleased with the weak US employment data, believing that the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain its easing in the short term, leading to a marginal increase in risk appetite and a further strengthening of expectations for dollar depreciation and inflation. Following the release of non-farm payroll data on May 7, all three major stock indexes rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.88%, 0.74%, and 0.66%, respectively (Chart 12). The bond market reacted positively, with the 10-year US Treasury yield plunging during the session before rebounding, ultimately closing up 2 basis points, with the 10-year TIPS yield falling by 2 basis points (Chart 13). Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); the US Dollar Index shares plunged to close at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5. Be wary of a \"nonlinear\" recovery in US employment.</p><p>We believe that we should be wary of a \"non-linear\" recovery in U.S. employment and the potential risks it may bring in the next 1-2 months (May-June).</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data in April was significantly weaker than in March, a phenomenon that seems somewhat unexpected given the improvement in the U.S. pandemic and the continued advancement of vaccinations. We have observed foreign media reports that American residents' concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic remain a major reason hindering employment recovery. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disrupted by unexpected events (such as severe weather in February and supply chain disruptions in April). All of this means that the recovery of the US job market is likely to be \"nonlinear\".</p><p>There are three main risks to the \"non-linear\" recovery of the US economy: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which can easily lead to misjudgments. For example, if the market perceives weak employment data, the probability of the Federal Reserve tightening policy will decrease, and the market will then proactively embrace risk. The market's forecast of 1 million new non-farm payrolls in April, based on March's non-farm payrolls data of 916,000, is one example.<b>One possible scenario is that market expectations for May employment data are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>At that time, market anxiety regarding the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy may reach its peak, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, a \"cluster recovery\" may push up inflation more quickly.</b>If the COVID-19 pandemic is the main reason hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, then it can be expected that as \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July, see the report \"How far is the United States from 'herd immunity'?\"), employment may recover in clusters, followed by a rapid rebound in economic activities such as production and consumption, and a rapid rise in inflation indicators.</p><p><b>Third, the divergence between employment and inflation trends will increase the difficulty for the market to judge the Federal Reserve's policies, which in turn can easily trigger market volatility.</b>Based on the latest March PCE data and the Federal Reserve's forecast for year-on-year PCE growth in 2021 (median forecast of 2.4%), our benchmark calculations show that the year-on-year PCE growth rate in April-May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if employment recovery remains slow, the Federal Reserve will be caught in a dilemma between \"slow employment\" and \"rapid inflation.\" At the very least, it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to communicate with the market, and US stocks and other risky assets will be prone to volatility, which warrants vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175032729","content_text":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，就业缺口超820万人。4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。商品生产部门减少1.6万人，主要受制造业拖累;运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关;专业和商业服务业(“临时支持服务”)锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制。\n2、 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌。第一，4月劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%。不过，4月劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。4月ADP私人部门新增就业74.2万人，高于前值56.5万人。最新初请失业金人数降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低。第三，非农数据初值的准确性有限。非农就业报告会按月被修正。对于4月数据，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时性，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不宜将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3、 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注。4月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增速大幅降落至1.15%，很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。美国财政部3月以来支出加速，3月TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减约3000亿美元。而政府支出可能对就业市场产生“反作用”，2020年4月以来政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢，劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口。\n4、 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极。市场乐见就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，标普500指数再创新高;债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水;黄金期货价格明显受到提振;美元指数跳水。\n5、 警惕美国就业“非线性”复苏及相关风险，5-6月市场波动可能加剧。考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，4月就业数据弱于3月有些出乎意料，意味着美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于线性外推思维，容易造成误判。市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。一个可能的情形是，5月就业数据可能大幅高于预期，届时市场对于货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点、引发市场波动。二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月美国PCE同比增速或达到3%。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动。\n1 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业在拖后腿?\n美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，目前就业缺口超820万人。美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。4月非农就业总人数为144.31万人，较前值144万人仅增加约3千人。目前，美国非农就业总人数比新冠疫情前(2020年2月)低821.5万人(图表1)。\n\n制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。4月新增的26.6万人中，有23.4万人来自服务业、比3月减少一半以上，4.8万人来自政府部门、比3月减少约1/4，而商品生产部门减少1.6万人、3月为增加16.6万人。4月商品生产部门就业主要受制造业(尤其耐用品制造)拖累(图表2);运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关，此前美联储亦曾提及供应链“瓶颈”;专业和商业服务业锐减7.9万人，其中“临时支持服务”锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。据美国劳工部(BLS)报告，“因经济原因从事非全日制工作”人数减少58万，原因是全职职位增加。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制(图表3)。\n\n2 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌\n4月非农初值可能并非美国就业市场恢复节奏的全貌，仍有一系列信号指向美国就业市场正在边际改善。\n第一，4月美国劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月美国失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%和市场预期的5.8%(图表4)。不过，4月美国劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人，虽然目前劳动力总人口仍比疫情前(2020年2月)低346万人(图表5)。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。此外，4月U6失业率(考虑更广义的失业人群)下降了0.3个百分点至10.4%。\n\n第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。在非农数据前一天公布的“小非农”(ADP私人部门就业)数据显示，4月美国新增就业74.2万人，高于前值的56.5万人(图表6)。截至5月1日的一周，美国初请失业金人数继续下降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低，虽然该数字仍为疫情前水平的2.1倍。截至4月24日的一周，美国续请失业金人数为369万人，略高于前值的365万人，为疫情前水平的2.4倍(图表7)。\n\n第三，需注意非农数据初值的准确性有限。5月7日美国财长耶伦讲话称，非农就业报告会按月被修正，不建议将某个月的数据视作潜在趋势。结合非农数据初值的结构性特点，我们认为，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不应将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注\n4月平均时薪同比增速大幅回落，主要是基数原因，实际薪资环比仍较快增长。疫情后劳动力市场供不应求，使美国非农员工平均时薪同比增速显著高于往年，3月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增长4.55%。4月这一增速大幅降落至1.15%(图表8)，但很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅(图表9)。4月每周工时与3月持平，但仍低于疫情前水平。\n\n美国财政部3月以来支出加速，可能对就业市场产生“反作用”。注意到，2021年3月以来美国财政部开始执行TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减计划，仅3月就支出了约3000亿美元(图表10)。我们在之前报告《美国的“慢就业”与“快通胀”》中指出，美国就业市场恢复整体偏慢，与其他经济指标所显示的“快复苏”背离，这一定程度上与美国大力度的财政刺激有关。2020年4月以来，政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢、劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口(图表11)。\n\n4 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极\n市场显然乐见美国就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，三大股指齐涨，纳指、标普500和道指分别收涨0.88%、0.74%和0.66%(图表12);债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水、之后回升，最终收涨2bp，其中10年TIPS利率降2bp(图表13);黄金期货价格明显受到提振(图表14);美元指数跳水、收于90.24，为2月25日以来新低(图表15)。\n\n5 警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏\n我们认为，未来1-2个月(5-6月)应警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，及其可能带来的风险。\n4月美国非农就业数据明显弱于3月，考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，这一现象似乎有些始料未及。我们观察外媒报道，美国居民对新冠疫情的担忧依然是阻碍就业恢复的重要原因。此外，美国就业市场可能受到突发事件扰动(今年2月受恶劣天气影响、4月受供应链受阻影响等)。这些均意味着，美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。\n美国经济“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于“线性外推”思维，容易造成误判。例如，市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。市场基于3月91.6万的非农就业数据，预测4月非农新增100万，就是一个例子。一个可能的情形是，市场对5月就业数据的预期降低，但实际数据可能大幅高于预期。届时，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点，导致资产抛售与市场震荡。\n二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。如果新冠疫情是阻碍美国就业恢复的主因，那么可以预计等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右，参考报告《美国离“群体免疫”还有多远?》)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。\n三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。基于最新公布的3月PCE数据，以及美联储对于2021年PCE同比增速的预判(预测中值为2.4%)，我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月PCE同比增速或达到3%(图表16)。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动，值得警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109775678,"gmtCreate":1619736671894,"gmtModify":1704271452297,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"5151","listText":"5151","text":"5151","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109775678","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936000760,"gmtCreate":1662681376550,"gmtModify":1676537115220,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936000760","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043285605,"gmtCreate":1655939999907,"gmtModify":1676535734142,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043285605","repostId":"1165129643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165129643","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655911360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165129643?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 23:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reading Boy Education Holdings Limited Passes Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Hearing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165129643","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据港交所官网文件显示，6月22日晚，读书郎教育控股有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，中信建投证券和麦格理为其联席保荐人。读书郎教育控股有限公司，是中国主要的智能学习硬件、系统和内容供应商。成立于1999年，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to documents on the official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on the evening of June 22, Reading Boy Education Holdings Limited passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities and Macquarie as its joint sponsors.</p><p>Reading Boy Education Holdings Limited is a leading supplier of smart learning hardware, systems, and content in China. Founded in 1999, it is dedicated to providing students with integrated smart learning solutions (ToC) and schools with integrated smart campus solutions (ToB/G). As of the Latest Practicable Date, ReadBook's products mainly included smart learning hardware such as AI student tablets and phone watches, ReadBook's smart campus solutions, and provided AI and big data systems, educational content research and development and services.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reading Boy Education Holdings Limited Passes Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Hearing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReading Boy Education Holdings Limited Passes Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Hearing\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-22 23:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to documents on the official website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on the evening of June 22, Reading Boy Education Holdings Limited passed the listing hearing of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities and Macquarie as its joint sponsors.</p><p>Reading Boy Education Holdings Limited is a leading supplier of smart learning hardware, systems, and content in China. Founded in 1999, it is dedicated to providing students with integrated smart learning solutions (ToC) and schools with integrated smart campus solutions (ToB/G). As of the Latest Practicable Date, ReadBook's products mainly included smart learning hardware such as AI student tablets and phone watches, ReadBook's smart campus solutions, and provided AI and big data systems, educational content research and development and services.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f45e630f2b8423c1283fe921facb38e","relate_stocks":{"02385":"读书郎"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165129643","content_text":"据港交所官网文件显示，6月22日晚，读书郎教育控股有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，中信建投证券和麦格理为其联席保荐人。读书郎教育控股有限公司，是中国主要的智能学习硬件、系统和内容供应商。成立于1999年，致力于为学生提供智慧学习一体化解决方案（ToC），为学校提供智慧校园一体化解决方案（ToB/G）。截至最后实际可行日期，读书郎产品主要有AI学生平板、电话手表等为主的智慧学习硬件、读书郎智慧校园解决方案，并提供AI 和大数据系统、教育内容研发和服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90098":0.9,"02385":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089838779,"gmtCreate":1649980626357,"gmtModify":1676534619678,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>upup","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>upup","text":"$瑞银(UBS)$upup","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b0344e7501c0a0f6f4504d115e170f1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089838779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019664933,"gmtCreate":1648596790235,"gmtModify":1676534359245,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>up up up","text":"$瑞银(UBS)$up up up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/18a58fa4766337f4281fecc6bcab4ffe","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019664933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031094708,"gmtCreate":1646377360857,"gmtModify":1676534123925,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"12000🙄🙄","listText":"12000🙄🙄","text":"12000🙄🙄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031094708","repostId":"2216455949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216455949","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646374855,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216455949?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 14:20","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Copper inventories are extremely low, and Goldman Sachs says copper prices are expected to break $12,000!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216455949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛指出，作为全球最大铜生产国之一，俄罗斯铜出口渠道在制裁后将严重受限；考虑到目前明显的供应紧缺环境，铜库存有望进一步下降。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Commodity Flagbearer\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>We continue to be bullish on copper prices, saying the market has \"misjudged\" the risks to Russian supply, and that copper prices will reach a record high of $12,000 per ton in the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs stated that Russia is one of the world's largest copper producers, producing nearly 1 million tons of refined copper annually, accounting for 7% of its supply excluding China, and is the second-largest exporter of refined copper. So far, copper prices have reacted relatively mildly to the risk of supply shortages caused by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this market reaction may be misjudged.</p><p>After European and American countries initiated sanctions, Russia's export channels will be severely restricted. The market is currently experiencing a clear supply shortage, and copper inventories are expected to decline further (following export restrictions in Russia), which will further push up copper prices.</p><p>Regarding copper inventories, global copper market inventories at the beginning of this year were far below historical levels, leaving very limited room for relief. After the first quarter, historical market supply is insufficient to solve the deficit problem in 2022. Goldman Sachs had previously predicted that the supply and demand deficit would reach 197,000 tons this year.</p><p>The longer this situation continues, the higher the risk of extreme scarcity by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs, using seasonal standards and the inventory path of its full-year deficit, inferred that global observable inventories would fall below 150,000 tons.</p><p>Previous articles pointed out that the hidden inventory of the London Metal Exchange, one of the world's three major futures exchanges, is disappearing rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2021, the LME's spot copper inventory decreased by 115,000 tons, bringing the total to only 18,945 tons at the end of November, the lowest level since the exchange began releasing the data in February 2020.</p><p>In such a tight supply environment, the premium on spot copper is becoming increasingly serious. Typically, when there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the market will enter a state of spot premium to encourage inventory holders to put goods on the market.</p><p>In fact, there has been a spot premium in the copper market since October last year, and there is almost no sign of this in the market because there has been no significant increase. Goldman Sachs expects the spot premium to persist, and the price spread between copper spot and futures to continue to widen.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Copper inventories are extremely low, and Goldman Sachs says copper prices are expected to break $12,000!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCopper inventories are extremely low, and Goldman Sachs says copper prices are expected to break $12,000!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 14:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Commodity Flagbearer\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>We continue to be bullish on copper prices, saying the market has \"misjudged\" the risks to Russian supply, and that copper prices will reach a record high of $12,000 per ton in the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs stated that Russia is one of the world's largest copper producers, producing nearly 1 million tons of refined copper annually, accounting for 7% of its supply excluding China, and is the second-largest exporter of refined copper. So far, copper prices have reacted relatively mildly to the risk of supply shortages caused by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this market reaction may be misjudged.</p><p>After European and American countries initiated sanctions, Russia's export channels will be severely restricted. The market is currently experiencing a clear supply shortage, and copper inventories are expected to decline further (following export restrictions in Russia), which will further push up copper prices.</p><p>Regarding copper inventories, global copper market inventories at the beginning of this year were far below historical levels, leaving very limited room for relief. After the first quarter, historical market supply is insufficient to solve the deficit problem in 2022. Goldman Sachs had previously predicted that the supply and demand deficit would reach 197,000 tons this year.</p><p>The longer this situation continues, the higher the risk of extreme scarcity by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs, using seasonal standards and the inventory path of its full-year deficit, inferred that global observable inventories would fall below 150,000 tons.</p><p>Previous articles pointed out that the hidden inventory of the London Metal Exchange, one of the world's three major futures exchanges, is disappearing rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2021, the LME's spot copper inventory decreased by 115,000 tons, bringing the total to only 18,945 tons at the end of November, the lowest level since the exchange began releasing the data in February 2020.</p><p>In such a tight supply environment, the premium on spot copper is becoming increasingly serious. Typically, when there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the market will enter a state of spot premium to encourage inventory holders to put goods on the market.</p><p>In fact, there has been a spot premium in the copper market since October last year, and there is almost no sign of this in the market because there has been no significant increase. Goldman Sachs expects the spot premium to persist, and the price spread between copper spot and futures to continue to widen.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653397\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb9a4d452d8568bcc6a2558535ad160","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216455949","content_text":"“商品旗手”高盛继续唱多铜价，称市场“误判”俄罗斯供应风险，铜价未来12个月将上探每吨12000美元的纪录高位。高盛表示，俄罗斯是全球最大的铜生产国之一，年精炼铜产量接近100万吨，占除中国外供应的7%，并且是第二大精炼铜出口国。到目前为止，铜价对俄乌冲突升级造成的供应紧缺风险反应相对温和，这种市场反应可能存在误判。在欧美各国开启制裁措施后，俄罗斯的出口渠道将严重受限。目前市场处于明显的供应紧缺环境，（在俄罗斯出口受限后）铜库存有望面临进一步下降，这将进一步推高铜价。在铜库存方面，今年伊始全球铜市场的库存远低于历史水平，缓解空间十分有限。一季度后，从历史市场供给情况来看，也不足以解决2022年的赤字问题，高盛此前预计今年的供需赤字将达到19.7万吨。这种情况持续得越久年底出现极端稀缺的风险越高。高盛使用季节标准和其全年赤字的库存路径推断得出，全球可见库存将跌至15万吨以下。此前见闻文章指出，全球三大期货交易所之一伦敦金属交易所隐形库存消失得飞快，2021年前11个月，LME的铜现货库存减少了11.5万吨，11月底的总量只有18945吨，是该交易所自2020年2月开始发布该数据以来的最低水平。在如此紧张的供应环境下，铜现货升水现象越来越严重。通常情况下，市场供需出现不匹配时，市场就会进入现货溢价状态，以鼓励库存持有者将商品推向市场。事实上，自去年10月以来，铜市场就一直存在现货溢价现象，由于没有出现大幅的上涨，市场几乎没有迹象表明这一点。高盛预计，现货溢价将持续存在，铜现货和期货的价差将不断扩大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HGmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}