hhyw personal page - To The Moon

hhyw

hhyw

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2025-03-10

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2023-10-30

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2023-06-27

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2023-06-26

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2023-06-25

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2023-06-24

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2023-06-23

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2023-06-23

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2023-06-22

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2023-06-21

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2023-06-21

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2023-06-20

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2023-06-18

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2023-06-17

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2023-06-16

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2023-06-15

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2023-06-15

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2023-06-14

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What: The U.S. added 266,000 non-farm jobs in April, with an unemployment rate of 6.1% and a labor participation rate of 61.7%.</p><p><b>In January and April, the non-agricultural data was less than expected. Which industries were dragging behind?</b>The non-farm data of the United States in April was far lower than the previous value and expectation, and the employment gap exceeded 8.2 million. In April, 266,000 non-farm jobs were added, after the market expected to be close to 1 million, and the initial value in March was 916,000 and the revised value was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation and \"part-time jobs\" drag their feet, while leisure and hospitality performed brightly. The commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 people, mainly dragged down by the manufacturing industry; The employment of transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of international supply chain; Professional and commercial services (\"temporary support services\") plummeted by 111,400, but this could be a positive sign that \"part-time\" personnel are starting to move to \"full-time\". The leisure and hospitality industry increased by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000, reflecting the beginning of relaxation of restrictions on the movement of people in various states in the United States.</p><p><b>The initial non-agricultural value in February and April may not be the whole picture of the employment situation in the United States.</b>First, the marginal improvement in labor participation enthusiasm in April is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) was 6.1% in April, up from the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to 430,000 new labor force. Some new entrants to the labor market may not find jobs for the time being, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily increase the unemployment rate. Second, the number of \"small non-agricultural\" and initial unemployment claims is more optimistic. The ADP private sector added 742,000 jobs in April, up from the previous value of 565,000. The latest jobless claims dropped to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic. Third, the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. Non-farm payroll reports are revised on a monthly basis. For the April data, disturbances such as supply chain blockage may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to \"linear extrapolate\" this as a trend.</p><p><b>In March and April, the average hourly wage still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managers dropped sharply to 1.15%, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managers rose from US$24.15 to US$25.16. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury's spending has accelerated since March, and the TGA (General Account of the Treasury Department) shrank by about 300 billion dollars in March. However, government expenditure may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven residents' income to grow high, but at the same time, the willingness to employ may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap.</p><p><b>In April, the non-agricultural data was weak, but the market responded positively.</b>The market is happy to see the weak employment data, believing that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite margin heats up, and the expectation of US dollar depreciation and inflation expectation further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7th, the S&P 500 index reached a new high; The bond market reacted positively, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds plunged intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; the US Dollar Index diving.</p><p><b>5. Be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment and related risks. Market volatility may intensify from May to June.</b>Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation and the continued advancement of vaccination in the United States, the weaker employment data in April than in March is somewhat unexpected, meaning that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear\". There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. The market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Federal Reserve tightening policy will decrease, and then it will actively embrace risks. One possible scenario is that the employment data in May may be significantly higher than expected, when the market's nervousness about the monetary policy shift may reach a high point, triggering market volatility. Second, \"gathering for recovery\" may push up inflation faster. When the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July), employment may \"gather\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the divergence between employment and inflation will increase the difficulty of the market in judging the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations. Our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States may reach 3% from April to May this year. However, if the employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risk assets are prone to fluctuations.</p><p>In April, the non-agricultural data fell short of expectations. Which industries are dragging their feet?</p><p>The non-farm data of the United States in April is far lower than the previous value and expectation, and the current employment gap exceeds 8.2 million people. The United States added 266,000 non-farm jobs in April, after the market expected to be close to 1 million, and the initial value in March was 916,000 and the revised value was 770,000. In April, the total number of non-farm employees was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous value of 1.44 million. Currently, total non-farm payrolls in the United States are 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation and \"part-time jobs\" drag their feet, while leisure and hospitality performed brightly. Among the 266,000 newly added in April, 234,000 came from the service industry, more than half lower than that in March, 48,000 came from government departments, about a quarter lower than that in March, while the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 and increased by 166,000 in March. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by manufacturing (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); The employment of the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the blockage of the international supply chain. Previously, the Federal Reserve also mentioned the \"bottleneck\" of the supply chain; Professional and business services plummeted by 79,000, with \"temporary support services\" plummeting by 111,400, but this could be a positive sign that \"part-time\" personnel are starting to move to \"full-time\". The U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) reported a 580,000 decrease in \"part-time work for economic reasons,\" due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hospitality industry increased by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting the beginning of relaxation of restrictions on the movement of people in various states in the United States (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2 April preliminary non-farm value may not be the full picture of the U.S. employment situation</p><p>The initial value of non-farm in April may not be the whole picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. job market, and there are still a series of signals pointing to the marginal improvement of the U.S. job market.</p><p>First, in April, the enthusiasm for labor participation in the United States improved marginally, which is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) was 6.1% in April, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and market expectations of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the labor participation rate in the United States rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to an additional labor force of 430,000, although the current total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some new entrants to the labor market may not find jobs for the time being, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily increase the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (taking into account the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of \"small non-agricultural\" and initial unemployment claims is more optimistic. According to the \"small non-farm\" (ADP private sector employment) data released the day before the non-farm data, 742,000 new jobs were added in the United States in April, up from the previous value of 565,000 (Chart 6). U.S. jobless claims continued to decline to 498,000 in the week ending May 1, the lowest since the pandemic, although the number remained 2.1 times pre-pandemic levels. In the week ending April 24, the number of renewed jobless claims in the United States was 3.69 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-pandemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. On May 7th, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech that the non-farm payroll report will be revised on a monthly basis, and it is not recommended to regard the data of a certain month as a potential trend. Combined with the structural characteristics of the initial value of non-agricultural data, we believe that the disturbance such as supply chain interruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be \"linear extrapolated\" as a trend.</p><p>3 Average hourly wage in April still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention</p><p>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage dropped sharply, mainly due to the base number, and the actual wage still increased rapidly month-on-month. After the pandemic, the labor market was in short supply, which made the average hourly wage of non-farm employees in the United States grow significantly higher than that of previous years. In March, the average hourly wage of non-farm and non-management employees increased by 4.55% year-on-year. This growth rate fell sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but largely due to the base effect, the average hourly wage of non-farm and non-management workers rose from $24.15 to $25.16 in April 2020. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Weekly hours in April were the same as in March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The US Treasury's spending has accelerated since March, which may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Note that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department began to implement the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction plan, and spent about 300 billion USD in March alone (Chart 10). In our previous report \"Slow Employment and Fast Inflation in the United States\", we pointed out that the overall recovery of the U.S. job market is slow, which deviates from the \"fast recovery\" shown by other economic indicators, which is partly related to the strong fiscal stimulus of the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4 April non-farm data was weak, but the market reacted positively</p><p>Obviously, the market is happy to see the weak employment data in the United States, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite margin heats up, and the expectation of US dollar depreciation and inflation expectation further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7th, the three major stock indexes rose together, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closing up 0.88%, 0.74% and 0.66% respectively (Chart 12); The bond market reacted positively, with the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds diving in the intraday session, then rebounding, and finally closing up 2bp, of which the 10-year TIPS interest rate dropped by 2bp (Chart 13); Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); the US Dollar Index plunged and closed at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5 Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment</p><p>We believe that in the next 1-2 months (May-June), we should be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment and its possible risks.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payroll data in April was significantly weaker than that in March. Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation and the continuous advancement of vaccination in the United States, this phenomenon seems somewhat unexpected. We observed foreign media reports that American residents' worries about the COVID-19 epidemic are still an important reason hindering the recovery of employment. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disturbed by unexpected events (affected by bad weather in February this year and blocked supply chain in April). All this means that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear\".</p><p>There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" economic recovery in the United States: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. For example, if the market believes that the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. Based on the data of 916,000 non-farm payrolls in March, the market predicts that 1 million non-farm payrolls will be added in April, which is an example.<b>One possible scenario is that market expectations for May employment data are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>By then, the market's nervousness about the Fed's monetary policy shift may reach a high point, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, \"gathering for recovery\" may push up inflation faster.</b>If the COVID-19 epidemic is the main reason hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, it can be expected that when the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect that around July, refer to the report \"How far is the United States from\" herd immunity \"?\"), employment may \"gather\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly.</p><p><b>Third, the divergence between employment and inflation will increase the difficulty of the market in judging the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations.</b>Based on the latest PCE data released in March and the Federal Reserve's prediction of the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in 2021 (the median forecast is 2.4%), our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE from April to May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if the employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risk assets are prone to fluctuations, which deserve vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1602814587747","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, and market volatility may intensify in May-June</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBe wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment, and market volatility may intensify in May-June\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济分析</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-09 08:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. What: The U.S. added 266,000 non-farm jobs in April, with an unemployment rate of 6.1% and a labor participation rate of 61.7%.</p><p><b>In January and April, the non-agricultural data was less than expected. Which industries were dragging behind?</b>The non-farm data of the United States in April was far lower than the previous value and expectation, and the employment gap exceeded 8.2 million. In April, 266,000 non-farm jobs were added, after the market expected to be close to 1 million, and the initial value in March was 916,000 and the revised value was 770,000. Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation and \"part-time jobs\" drag their feet, while leisure and hospitality performed brightly. The commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 people, mainly dragged down by the manufacturing industry; The employment of transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the interruption of international supply chain; Professional and commercial services (\"temporary support services\") plummeted by 111,400, but this could be a positive sign that \"part-time\" personnel are starting to move to \"full-time\". The leisure and hospitality industry increased by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000, reflecting the beginning of relaxation of restrictions on the movement of people in various states in the United States.</p><p><b>The initial non-agricultural value in February and April may not be the whole picture of the employment situation in the United States.</b>First, the marginal improvement in labor participation enthusiasm in April is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The unemployment rate (U3) was 6.1% in April, up from the previous value of 6.0%. However, the labor participation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to 430,000 new labor force. Some new entrants to the labor market may not find jobs for the time being, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily increase the unemployment rate. Second, the number of \"small non-agricultural\" and initial unemployment claims is more optimistic. The ADP private sector added 742,000 jobs in April, up from the previous value of 565,000. The latest jobless claims dropped to 498,000, the lowest since the pandemic. Third, the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. Non-farm payroll reports are revised on a monthly basis. For the April data, disturbances such as supply chain blockage may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and it is not appropriate to \"linear extrapolate\" this as a trend.</p><p><b>In March and April, the average hourly wage still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention.</b>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managers dropped sharply to 1.15%, largely due to the base effect. In April 2020, the average hourly wage of non-agricultural non-managers rose from US$24.15 to US$25.16. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year. The U.S. Treasury's spending has accelerated since March, and the TGA (General Account of the Treasury Department) shrank by about 300 billion dollars in March. However, government expenditure may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven residents' income to grow high, but at the same time, the willingness to employ may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap.</p><p><b>In April, the non-agricultural data was weak, but the market responded positively.</b>The market is happy to see the weak employment data, believing that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite margin heats up, and the expectation of US dollar depreciation and inflation expectation further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7th, the S&P 500 index reached a new high; The bond market reacted positively, and the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds plunged intraday; Gold futures prices were significantly boosted; the US Dollar Index diving.</p><p><b>5. Be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment and related risks. Market volatility may intensify from May to June.</b>Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation and the continued advancement of vaccination in the United States, the weaker employment data in April than in March is somewhat unexpected, meaning that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear\". There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" recovery: First, the market is accustomed to linear extrapolation thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. The market believes that if the employment data is weak, the probability of the Federal Reserve tightening policy will decrease, and then it will actively embrace risks. One possible scenario is that the employment data in May may be significantly higher than expected, when the market's nervousness about the monetary policy shift may reach a high point, triggering market volatility. Second, \"gathering for recovery\" may push up inflation faster. When the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect it to be around July), employment may \"gather\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly. Third, the divergence between employment and inflation will increase the difficulty of the market in judging the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations. Our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in the United States may reach 3% from April to May this year. However, if the employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risk assets are prone to fluctuations.</p><p>In April, the non-agricultural data fell short of expectations. Which industries are dragging their feet?</p><p>The non-farm data of the United States in April is far lower than the previous value and expectation, and the current employment gap exceeds 8.2 million people. The United States added 266,000 non-farm jobs in April, after the market expected to be close to 1 million, and the initial value in March was 916,000 and the revised value was 770,000. In April, the total number of non-farm employees was 1.4431 million, an increase of only about 3,000 from the previous value of 1.44 million. Currently, total non-farm payrolls in the United States are 8.215 million lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31d9d1bc09767085bc713950ea8463a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Manufacturing, warehousing and transportation and \"part-time jobs\" drag their feet, while leisure and hospitality performed brightly. Among the 266,000 newly added in April, 234,000 came from the service industry, more than half lower than that in March, 48,000 came from government departments, about a quarter lower than that in March, while the commodity production sector decreased by 16,000 and increased by 166,000 in March. Employment in the commodity production sector in April was mainly dragged down by manufacturing (especially durable goods manufacturing) (Chart 2); The employment of the transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 74,000, which may be related to the blockage of the international supply chain. Previously, the Federal Reserve also mentioned the \"bottleneck\" of the supply chain; Professional and business services plummeted by 79,000, with \"temporary support services\" plummeting by 111,400, but this could be a positive sign that \"part-time\" personnel are starting to move to \"full-time\". The U.S. Department of Labor (BLS) reported a 580,000 decrease in \"part-time work for economic reasons,\" due to an increase in full-time positions. The leisure and hospitality industry increased by 331,000 people, compared with the previous value of 206,000 people, reflecting the beginning of relaxation of restrictions on the movement of people in various states in the United States (Chart 3).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7391ef70d5d9ffd318384b216952f3be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2 April preliminary non-farm value may not be the full picture of the U.S. employment situation</p><p>The initial value of non-farm in April may not be the whole picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. job market, and there are still a series of signals pointing to the marginal improvement of the U.S. job market.</p><p>First, in April, the enthusiasm for labor participation in the United States improved marginally, which is also the reason for the rise in unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate (U3) was 6.1% in April, higher than the previous value of 6.0% and market expectations of 5.8% (Chart 4). However, the labor participation rate in the United States rose by 0.2 percentage points to 61.7% in April, corresponding to an additional labor force of 430,000, although the current total labor force is still 3.46 million lower than before the pandemic (February 2020) (Chart 5). Some new entrants to the labor market may not find jobs for the time being, which will increase the \"numerator and denominator\" at the same time and temporarily increase the unemployment rate. In addition, the U6 unemployment rate (taking into account the broader unemployed population) fell by 0.3 percentage points to 10.4% in April.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9ad824a347d2937fd825a24c739c26f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Second, the number of \"small non-agricultural\" and initial unemployment claims is more optimistic. According to the \"small non-farm\" (ADP private sector employment) data released the day before the non-farm data, 742,000 new jobs were added in the United States in April, up from the previous value of 565,000 (Chart 6). U.S. jobless claims continued to decline to 498,000 in the week ending May 1, the lowest since the pandemic, although the number remained 2.1 times pre-pandemic levels. In the week ending April 24, the number of renewed jobless claims in the United States was 3.69 million, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.65 million and 2.4 times the pre-pandemic level (Chart 7).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e8a3a0e2f0ec7f2c7c4b238cea62a11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Third, it should be noted that the accuracy of the initial value of non-agricultural data is limited. On May 7th, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said in a speech that the non-farm payroll report will be revised on a monthly basis, and it is not recommended to regard the data of a certain month as a potential trend. Combined with the structural characteristics of the initial value of non-agricultural data, we believe that the disturbance such as supply chain interruption may be temporary, and the decrease in the number of \"part-time jobs\" and the increase in employment in hotel tourism are also positive signals. The actual employment situation in the United States in April may not be so pessimistic, and this should not be \"linear extrapolated\" as a trend.</p><p>3 Average hourly wage in April still increased rapidly from the previous month, and the \"reaction\" of fiscal stimulus deserves attention</p><p>In April, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage dropped sharply, mainly due to the base number, and the actual wage still increased rapidly month-on-month. After the pandemic, the labor market was in short supply, which made the average hourly wage of non-farm employees in the United States grow significantly higher than that of previous years. In March, the average hourly wage of non-farm and non-management employees increased by 4.55% year-on-year. This growth rate fell sharply to 1.15% in April (Chart 8), but largely due to the base effect, the average hourly wage of non-farm and non-management workers rose from $24.15 to $25.16 in April 2020. If you look at the month-on-month, the average hourly wage in April increased by 0.8% month-on-month, the highest increase this year (Chart 9). Weekly hours in April were the same as in March, but still below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499046534ca554e77c8cb117cb01083f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The US Treasury's spending has accelerated since March, which may have a \"countereffect\" on the job market. Note that since March 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department began to implement the TGA (Treasury General Account) reduction plan, and spent about 300 billion USD in March alone (Chart 10). In our previous report \"Slow Employment and Fast Inflation in the United States\", we pointed out that the overall recovery of the U.S. job market is slow, which deviates from the \"fast recovery\" shown by other economic indicators, which is partly related to the strong fiscal stimulus of the United States. Since April 2020, government welfare has driven high income growth of residents, but at the same time, employment willingness may be suppressed, resulting in slow recovery of the job market and insufficient labor participation rate, and then enterprises have to raise wages to make up for the labor gap (Chart 11).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfa89b00b22d2bd7e8def30542644a0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>4 April non-farm data was weak, but the market reacted positively</p><p>Obviously, the market is happy to see the weak employment data in the United States, and believes that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain loose in the short term, and then the risk appetite margin heats up, and the expectation of US dollar depreciation and inflation expectation further strengthen. After the release of non-agricultural data on May 7th, the three major stock indexes rose together, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow closing up 0.88%, 0.74% and 0.66% respectively (Chart 12); The bond market reacted positively, with the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds diving in the intraday session, then rebounding, and finally closing up 2bp, of which the 10-year TIPS interest rate dropped by 2bp (Chart 13); Gold futures prices were significantly boosted (Chart 14); the US Dollar Index plunged and closed at 90.24, a new low since February 25 (Chart 15).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaa756fa809932a70084916cd316142c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"941\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>5 Be wary of the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment</p><p>We believe that in the next 1-2 months (May-June), we should be alert to the \"nonlinear\" recovery of U.S. employment and its possible risks.</p><p>The U.S. non-farm payroll data in April was significantly weaker than that in March. Considering the improvement of the epidemic situation and the continuous advancement of vaccination in the United States, this phenomenon seems somewhat unexpected. We observed foreign media reports that American residents' worries about the COVID-19 epidemic are still an important reason hindering the recovery of employment. In addition, the U.S. job market may be disturbed by unexpected events (affected by bad weather in February this year and blocked supply chain in April). All this means that the recovery of the U.S. job market is likely to be \"non-linear\".</p><p>There are three main risks of \"nonlinear\" economic recovery in the United States: First, the market is accustomed to \"linear extrapolation\" thinking, which is easy to cause misjudgment. For example, if the market believes that the employment data is weak, the probability of the Fed tightening policy will decrease, and then actively embrace risks. Based on the data of 916,000 non-farm payrolls in March, the market predicts that 1 million non-farm payrolls will be added in April, which is an example.<b>One possible scenario is that market expectations for May employment data are lower, but the actual data may be significantly higher than expected.</b>By then, the market's nervousness about the Fed's monetary policy shift may reach a high point, leading to asset selling and market volatility.</p><p><b>Second, \"gathering for recovery\" may push up inflation faster.</b>If the COVID-19 epidemic is the main reason hindering the recovery of employment in the United States, it can be expected that when the \"herd immunity\" in the United States approaches (we expect that around July, refer to the report \"How far is the United States from\" herd immunity \"?\"), employment may \"gather\" to recover, and then economic activities such as production and consumption may rebound rapidly, and inflation indicators may rise rapidly.</p><p><b>Third, the divergence between employment and inflation will increase the difficulty of the market in judging the Fed's policy, which will easily lead to market fluctuations.</b>Based on the latest PCE data released in March and the Federal Reserve's prediction of the year-on-year growth rate of PCE in 2021 (the median forecast is 2.4%), our benchmark calculation shows that the year-on-year growth rate of PCE from April to May this year may reach 3% (Chart 16). However, if the employment recovery is still slow, the Fed will fall into the dilemma of \"slow employment\" and \"fast inflation\". At least it will be more difficult for the Fed to communicate with the market, and U.S. stocks and other risk assets are prone to fluctuations, which deserve vigilance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49dd065681f1d0a63d4960e36c6e256b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html\">钟正生经济分析</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/470669.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175032729","content_text":"如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。\n\n事件：美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，失业率为6.1%，劳动参与率为61.7%。\n1、 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业拖后腿?美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，就业缺口超820万人。4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。商品生产部门减少1.6万人，主要受制造业拖累;运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关;专业和商业服务业(“临时支持服务”)锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制。\n2、 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌。第一，4月劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%。不过，4月劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。4月ADP私人部门新增就业74.2万人，高于前值56.5万人。最新初请失业金人数降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低。第三，非农数据初值的准确性有限。非农就业报告会按月被修正。对于4月数据，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时性，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不宜将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3、 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注。4月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增速大幅降落至1.15%，很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅。美国财政部3月以来支出加速，3月TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减约3000亿美元。而政府支出可能对就业市场产生“反作用”，2020年4月以来政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢，劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口。\n4、 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极。市场乐见就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，标普500指数再创新高;债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水;黄金期货价格明显受到提振;美元指数跳水。\n5、 警惕美国就业“非线性”复苏及相关风险，5-6月市场波动可能加剧。考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，4月就业数据弱于3月有些出乎意料，意味着美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于线性外推思维，容易造成误判。市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。一个可能的情形是，5月就业数据可能大幅高于预期，届时市场对于货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点、引发市场波动。二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月美国PCE同比增速或达到3%。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动。\n1 4月非农数据不及预期，哪些行业在拖后腿?\n美国4月非农数据远低于前值和预期，目前就业缺口超820万人。美国4月新增非农就业26.6万人，此前市场预期接近100万人，3月初值为91.6万人、修正后为77万人。4月非农就业总人数为144.31万人，较前值144万人仅增加约3千人。目前，美国非农就业总人数比新冠疫情前(2020年2月)低821.5万人(图表1)。\n\n制造业、仓储运输业和“兼职”拖后腿，而休闲和酒店业表现亮眼。4月新增的26.6万人中，有23.4万人来自服务业、比3月减少一半以上，4.8万人来自政府部门、比3月减少约1/4，而商品生产部门减少1.6万人、3月为增加16.6万人。4月商品生产部门就业主要受制造业(尤其耐用品制造)拖累(图表2);运输仓储业就业减少7.4万人，可能与国际供应链阻断有关，此前美联储亦曾提及供应链“瓶颈”;专业和商业服务业锐减7.9万人，其中“临时支持服务”锐减11.14万人，但这可能是一个积极信号，表明“兼职”人员开始向“全职”转移。据美国劳工部(BLS)报告，“因经济原因从事非全日制工作”人数减少58万，原因是全职职位增加。而休闲和酒店业大幅增加33.1万人，前值20.6万人，体现美国各州开始放宽人员流动限制(图表3)。\n\n2 4月非农初值可能并非美国就业形势的全貌\n4月非农初值可能并非美国就业市场恢复节奏的全貌，仍有一系列信号指向美国就业市场正在边际改善。\n第一，4月美国劳动参与积极性边际改善，这也是失业率抬头的原因。4月美国失业率(U3)为6.1%，高于前值6.0%和市场预期的5.8%(图表4)。不过，4月美国劳动参与率升0.2个百分点至61.7%，对应新增劳动力人口43万人，虽然目前劳动力总人口仍比疫情前(2020年2月)低346万人(图表5)。部分新进入劳动力市场的人口可能暂未找到工作，继而使“分子分母”同时增加、失业率暂时抬头。此外，4月U6失业率(考虑更广义的失业人群)下降了0.3个百分点至10.4%。\n\n第二，“小非农”和初请失业金人数较为乐观。在非农数据前一天公布的“小非农”(ADP私人部门就业)数据显示，4月美国新增就业74.2万人，高于前值的56.5万人(图表6)。截至5月1日的一周，美国初请失业金人数继续下降至49.8万人，为疫情以来最低，虽然该数字仍为疫情前水平的2.1倍。截至4月24日的一周，美国续请失业金人数为369万人，略高于前值的365万人，为疫情前水平的2.4倍(图表7)。\n\n第三，需注意非农数据初值的准确性有限。5月7日美国财长耶伦讲话称，非农就业报告会按月被修正，不建议将某个月的数据视作潜在趋势。结合非农数据初值的结构性特点，我们认为，供应链阻断等扰动或属暂时，“兼职”人数减少和酒店旅游业就业增加亦是积极信号。4月美国实际就业形势或许没有那么悲观，不应将此作为趋势进行“线性外推”。\n3 4月平均时薪环比仍较快增长，财政刺激的“反作用”值得关注\n4月平均时薪同比增速大幅回落，主要是基数原因，实际薪资环比仍较快增长。疫情后劳动力市场供不应求，使美国非农员工平均时薪同比增速显著高于往年，3月非农非管理人员平均时薪同比增长4.55%。4月这一增速大幅降落至1.15%(图表8)，但很大程度上源于基数效应，2020年4月非农非管理人员平均时薪由24.15美元升至25.16美元。如果看环比，4月平均时薪环比增长0.8%，为今年以来最高增幅(图表9)。4月每周工时与3月持平，但仍低于疫情前水平。\n\n美国财政部3月以来支出加速，可能对就业市场产生“反作用”。注意到，2021年3月以来美国财政部开始执行TGA(财政部一般账户)缩减计划，仅3月就支出了约3000亿美元(图表10)。我们在之前报告《美国的“慢就业”与“快通胀”》中指出，美国就业市场恢复整体偏慢，与其他经济指标所显示的“快复苏”背离，这一定程度上与美国大力度的财政刺激有关。2020年4月以来，政府福利带动居民收入高增长，但与此同时就业意愿可能受到抑制，导致就业市场恢复偏慢、劳动参与率不足，继而企业不得不提高工资以弥补劳动力缺口(图表11)。\n\n4 4月非农数据疲弱，市场却反应积极\n市场显然乐见美国就业数据疲弱，认为美联储短期更可能维持宽松，继而风险偏好边际升温，美元贬值预期以及通胀预期进一步走强。5月7日非农数据公布后，三大股指齐涨，纳指、标普500和道指分别收涨0.88%、0.74%和0.66%(图表12);债市反应积极，10年美债收益率盘中跳水、之后回升，最终收涨2bp，其中10年TIPS利率降2bp(图表13);黄金期货价格明显受到提振(图表14);美元指数跳水、收于90.24，为2月25日以来新低(图表15)。\n\n5 警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏\n我们认为，未来1-2个月(5-6月)应警惕美国就业的“非线性”复苏，及其可能带来的风险。\n4月美国非农就业数据明显弱于3月，考虑到美国疫情改善与疫苗接种持续推进，这一现象似乎有些始料未及。我们观察外媒报道，美国居民对新冠疫情的担忧依然是阻碍就业恢复的重要原因。此外，美国就业市场可能受到突发事件扰动(今年2月受恶劣天气影响、4月受供应链受阻影响等)。这些均意味着，美国就业市场的恢复很可能是“非线性”的。\n美国经济“非线性”复苏的风险主要有三方面：一是，市场习惯于“线性外推”思维，容易造成误判。例如，市场认为就业数据疲弱，美联储收紧政策的概率就会下降，继而主动拥抱风险。市场基于3月91.6万的非农就业数据，预测4月非农新增100万，就是一个例子。一个可能的情形是，市场对5月就业数据的预期降低，但实际数据可能大幅高于预期。届时，市场对于美联储货币政策转向的紧张情绪或至高点，导致资产抛售与市场震荡。\n二是，“扎堆复苏”可能更快推升通胀。如果新冠疫情是阻碍美国就业恢复的主因，那么可以预计等到美国“群体免疫”临近(我们预计在7月左右，参考报告《美国离“群体免疫”还有多远?》)，就业可能“扎堆”复苏，继而生产、消费等经济活动可能快速反弹，通胀指标可能快速走高。\n三是，就业与通胀走势背离，将增加市场对于美联储政策判断的难度，继而容易引发市场波动。基于最新公布的3月PCE数据，以及美联储对于2021年PCE同比增速的预判(预测中值为2.4%)，我们的基准测算显示，今年4-5月PCE同比增速或达到3%(图表16)。但假如就业恢复仍然偏慢，美联储将陷入“慢就业”和“快通胀”的两难境地，至少美联储与市场沟通的难度将加大，美股及其他风险资产容易经历波动，值得警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":109775678,"gmtCreate":1619736671894,"gmtModify":1704271452297,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"5151","listText":"5151","text":"5151","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/109775678","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day Labor Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the arrangement of the May Day stock market, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British holiday Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Australian Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish you the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A shares are closed for three days on May Day, and Hong Kong and US stocks trade as usual\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is coming soon. It is worth mentioning that this year's May Day Labor Day will continue to take five consecutive days off. Regarding the arrangement of the May Day stock market, it is also the focus of investors' attention. Let's take a look at how many days the May Day stock market will be closed in 2021?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5, and will open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>U.S. stocks:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>UK shares:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is the traditional British holiday Bank holiday, and the British stock market is closed for one day</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Australian Market:</b></p><p>Trading as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Saturday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Closed from Thursday, April 29 to Wednesday, May 5 and open as usual from Thursday, May 6.</p><p>I wish you the most beautiful workers a happy May Day, peace and joy!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936000760,"gmtCreate":1662681376550,"gmtModify":1676537115220,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936000760","repostId":"1193358135","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1047,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043285605,"gmtCreate":1655939999907,"gmtModify":1676535734142,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043285605","repostId":"1165129643","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165129643","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655911360,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165129643?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 23:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Dushulang Education Holdings Limited passed the listing hearing on the HKEx","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165129643","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据港交所官网文件显示，6月22日晚，读书郎教育控股有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，中信建投证券和麦格理为其联席保荐人。读书郎教育控股有限公司，是中国主要的智能学习硬件、系统和内容供应商。成立于1999年，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to the documents of official website of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on the evening of June 22nd, Dushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. passed the listing hearing of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities and Macquarie as its joint sponsors.</p><p>Reading Lang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. is a major supplier of intelligent learning hardware, systems and content in China. Founded in 1999, it is committed to providing smart learning all-in-one solutions (ToC) for students and smart campus all-in-one solutions (ToB/G) for schools. As of the Latest Practicable Date, Dushulang products mainly include smart learning hardware based on AI student tablets, telephone watches, Dushulang smart campus solutions, and provide AI and big data systems, educational content research and development and services.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dushulang Education Holdings Limited passed the listing hearing on the HKEx</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDushulang Education Holdings Limited passed the listing hearing on the HKEx\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-22 23:22</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to the documents of official website of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on the evening of June 22nd, Dushulang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. passed the listing hearing of Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities and Macquarie as its joint sponsors.</p><p>Reading Lang Education Holdings Co., Ltd. is a major supplier of intelligent learning hardware, systems and content in China. Founded in 1999, it is committed to providing smart learning all-in-one solutions (ToC) for students and smart campus all-in-one solutions (ToB/G) for schools. As of the Latest Practicable Date, Dushulang products mainly include smart learning hardware based on AI student tablets, telephone watches, Dushulang smart campus solutions, and provide AI and big data systems, educational content research and development and services.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f45e630f2b8423c1283fe921facb38e","relate_stocks":{"02385":"读书郎"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165129643","content_text":"据港交所官网文件显示，6月22日晚，读书郎教育控股有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯，中信建投证券和麦格理为其联席保荐人。读书郎教育控股有限公司，是中国主要的智能学习硬件、系统和内容供应商。成立于1999年，致力于为学生提供智慧学习一体化解决方案（ToC），为学校提供智慧校园一体化解决方案（ToB/G）。截至最后实际可行日期，读书郎产品主要有AI学生平板、电话手表等为主的智慧学习硬件、读书郎智慧校园解决方案，并提供AI 和大数据系统、教育内容研发和服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90098":0.9,"02385":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089838779,"gmtCreate":1649980626357,"gmtModify":1676534619678,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>upup","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>upup","text":"$瑞银(UBS)$upup","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8b0344e7501c0a0f6f4504d115e170f1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089838779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9019664933,"gmtCreate":1648596790235,"gmtModify":1676534359245,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/UBS\">$瑞银(UBS)$</a>up up up","text":"$瑞银(UBS)$up up up","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/18a58fa4766337f4281fecc6bcab4ffe","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9019664933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9031094708,"gmtCreate":1646377360857,"gmtModify":1676534123925,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12000🙄🙄","listText":"12000🙄🙄","text":"12000🙄🙄","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031094708","repostId":"2216455949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2216455949","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646374855,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2216455949?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-04 14:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Copper inventories are extremely low, and Goldman Sachs says copper prices are expected to break $12,000!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2216455949","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛指出，作为全球最大铜生产国之一，俄罗斯铜出口渠道在制裁后将严重受限；考虑到目前明显的供应紧缺环境，铜库存有望进一步下降。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>\"Commodity Standard Bearer\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Continue to sing bullish copper prices, saying that the market \"misjudged\" Russian supply risks, and copper prices will reach a record high of $12,000 per ton in the next 12 months. Russia is one of the world's largest copper producers, producing nearly 1 million tons of refined copper annually, accounting for 7% of supplies excluding China, and is the second-largest exporter of refined copper, Goldman Sachs said. So far, copper prices have reacted relatively mildly to the risk of supply shortage caused by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this market response may be misjudged.</p><p>After European and American countries open sanctions measures, Russia's export channels will be severely restricted. At present, the market is in an obvious supply shortage environment, and (after the restriction of Russian exports) copper inventories are expected to face further decline, which will further push up copper prices.</p><p>In terms of copper inventory, the inventory of the global copper market at the beginning of this year was far lower than the historical level, and the room for mitigation was very limited. After the first quarter, judging from the historical market supply situation, it is not enough to solve the deficit problem in 2022. Goldman Sachs previously expected the supply and demand deficit this year to reach 197,000 tons.</p><p>The longer this continues, the higher the risk of extreme scarcity at the end of the year. Using seasonal criteria and the inventory path of its full-year deficit, Goldman Sachs extrapolated that global visible inventories would fall below 150,000 tonnes.</p><p>Previously, the article pointed out that the invisible inventory of London Metal Exchange, one of the world's three largest futures exchanges, disappeared rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2021, LME's spot copper inventory decreased by 115,000 tons, and the total amount at the end of November was only 18,945 tons, which was the lowest level since the exchange began to release the data in February 2020.</p><p>In such a tight supply environment, the phenomenon of copper spot premium is becoming more and more serious. Typically, when there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the market enters a spot premium state to encourage inventory holders to bring goods to market.</p><p>In fact, there has been a spot premium in the copper market since last October, and there is little sign of this in the market since there has been no significant rise. Goldman Sachs expects that the spot premium will persist and the spread between copper spot and futures will continue to widen.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Copper inventories are extremely low, and Goldman Sachs says copper prices are expected to break $12,000!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCopper inventories are extremely low, and Goldman Sachs says copper prices are expected to break $12,000!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-04 14:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>\"Commodity Standard Bearer\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Continue to sing bullish copper prices, saying that the market \"misjudged\" Russian supply risks, and copper prices will reach a record high of $12,000 per ton in the next 12 months. Russia is one of the world's largest copper producers, producing nearly 1 million tons of refined copper annually, accounting for 7% of supplies excluding China, and is the second-largest exporter of refined copper, Goldman Sachs said. So far, copper prices have reacted relatively mildly to the risk of supply shortage caused by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and this market response may be misjudged.</p><p>After European and American countries open sanctions measures, Russia's export channels will be severely restricted. At present, the market is in an obvious supply shortage environment, and (after the restriction of Russian exports) copper inventories are expected to face further decline, which will further push up copper prices.</p><p>In terms of copper inventory, the inventory of the global copper market at the beginning of this year was far lower than the historical level, and the room for mitigation was very limited. After the first quarter, judging from the historical market supply situation, it is not enough to solve the deficit problem in 2022. Goldman Sachs previously expected the supply and demand deficit this year to reach 197,000 tons.</p><p>The longer this continues, the higher the risk of extreme scarcity at the end of the year. Using seasonal criteria and the inventory path of its full-year deficit, Goldman Sachs extrapolated that global visible inventories would fall below 150,000 tonnes.</p><p>Previously, the article pointed out that the invisible inventory of London Metal Exchange, one of the world's three largest futures exchanges, disappeared rapidly. In the first 11 months of 2021, LME's spot copper inventory decreased by 115,000 tons, and the total amount at the end of November was only 18,945 tons, which was the lowest level since the exchange began to release the data in February 2020.</p><p>In such a tight supply environment, the phenomenon of copper spot premium is becoming more and more serious. Typically, when there is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the market enters a spot premium state to encourage inventory holders to bring goods to market.</p><p>In fact, there has been a spot premium in the copper market since last October, and there is little sign of this in the market since there has been no significant rise. Goldman Sachs expects that the spot premium will persist and the spread between copper spot and futures will continue to widen.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653397\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb9a4d452d8568bcc6a2558535ad160","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3653397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2216455949","content_text":"“商品旗手”高盛继续唱多铜价，称市场“误判”俄罗斯供应风险，铜价未来12个月将上探每吨12000美元的纪录高位。高盛表示，俄罗斯是全球最大的铜生产国之一，年精炼铜产量接近100万吨，占除中国外供应的7%，并且是第二大精炼铜出口国。到目前为止，铜价对俄乌冲突升级造成的供应紧缺风险反应相对温和，这种市场反应可能存在误判。在欧美各国开启制裁措施后，俄罗斯的出口渠道将严重受限。目前市场处于明显的供应紧缺环境，（在俄罗斯出口受限后）铜库存有望面临进一步下降，这将进一步推高铜价。在铜库存方面，今年伊始全球铜市场的库存远低于历史水平，缓解空间十分有限。一季度后，从历史市场供给情况来看，也不足以解决2022年的赤字问题，高盛此前预计今年的供需赤字将达到19.7万吨。这种情况持续得越久年底出现极端稀缺的风险越高。高盛使用季节标准和其全年赤字的库存路径推断得出，全球可见库存将跌至15万吨以下。此前见闻文章指出，全球三大期货交易所之一伦敦金属交易所隐形库存消失得飞快，2021年前11个月，LME的铜现货库存减少了11.5万吨，11月底的总量只有18945吨，是该交易所自2020年2月开始发布该数据以来的最低水平。在如此紧张的供应环境下，铜现货升水现象越来越严重。通常情况下，市场供需出现不匹配时，市场就会进入现货溢价状态，以鼓励库存持有者将商品推向市场。事实上，自去年10月以来，铜市场就一直存在现货溢价现象，由于没有出现大幅的上涨，市场几乎没有迹象表明这一点。高盛预计，现货溢价将持续存在，铜现货和期货的价差将不断扩大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HGmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}