$BIDU-SW(09888)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ It's slowly becoming clear that @AndrewYNg $BIDU was the right model to follow. Cost of using AI models has collapsed according to JP Morgan. While this is good for the diffusion of the technology, it doesn’t bode well for the foundational model providers as it signals commoditization. Remaining margins will be competed away once the model development flatlines. Value creation will shift to the application layer, and big AI labs supplying foundational models will be more like internet service providers. The technology itself will get occasional upgrades (like we had in telecom with 3G, 4G, 5G) but it won’t be exclusive to any model provider so it’ll remain
$Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ After much deliberation going through the latest earnings release, I'd say I'm unimpressed by the latest result despite much marketing effort from industry third party sources including independent analyst. Much of the investments into Quick Commerce generated nett revenues growth of +6x% yoy (this is on the small base of Eleme) but at the expense of EBITA down by -7x% yoy (on the huge base of entire core China commerce group). Base on rough assumption, it would be roughly a 4:1 ratio in terms of expense to nett revenue gained. The only redemptions are from Management's verbal assuages that seems to imply higher new customer retention & synergy to
Mr Henry He HaiFeng proved to be instrumental to $BIDU$ transformation. He initiated the huge impairment despite obvious criticism paving the way for healthier growth pathway in the public AI Infrastructure cloud business which grew 33% yoy in Q3'25. With Chinese gov continuous investment for a sovereign AI Infrastructure leveraging private sector advancement, it guarantees growth & revenue source for $BIDU$ AI cloud infra business. Going forward, it wouldn't be an uncertainty in this business. $BIDU$ currently is the leading AI tech provider for AI application, digital employee, digital human (Livestream), & agentic AI service provider by revenue. Management cited higher willingness to pay for AI products that improves productivity eg. Digital human (livestreaming) & agentic A
'Big Short' Michael Burry Slams Baidu For $2.2 Billion Impairment In Q3 After 50% Of 2024 Net Income Gain Driven By 'Useful Life' Tweaks
The only problem is Chinese gov regulation. Will Xi's administration forced a narrow margin business in China? Most likely, it'll be a global business subsidizing China consumption story. Not an interesting proposition given such valuation.
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