Fattkhong personal page - To The Moon

Fattkhong

Fattkhong

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2023-02-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]

2023-02-09

[惊讶]

@第N次大变革大分流:tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。

2023-01-31

[惊讶]

Analyst: Cook is brilliant, Apple won't make mass layoffs

2022-12-29

[惊讶]

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2022-12-26

[惊讶]

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2022-12-19

[鬼脸]

Argentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also "won hemp"

2022-12-18

[惊讶]

2022-12-18

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2022-12-14

[惊讶]

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2022-12-12

[惊讶]

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2022-12-11

[惊讶]

What is more important to watch from the Fed's meeting next week beyond 50 basis points in rate hike?

2022-12-10

[惊讶]

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2022-12-09

[惊讶]

The heaviest data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December is coming, and the US CPI in November will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?

2022-12-08

[惊讶]

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2022-12-07

[惊讶]

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2022-12-05

[惊讶]

Leapmotor: Included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective December 5

2022-12-04

[惊讶]

Last Night This Morning | Intraday Reversal After Employment Report! China Concept Index Surges More Than 20% This Week

2022-12-03

[惊讶]

G7 finally reached the price ceiling of Russian oil. Why is it $60?

2022-12-01

[惊讶]

Global Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?

2022-11-30

[惊讶]

Supply or Demand? Fed trying to figure out what drives high inflation

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d02c83f17542b85b2b3599c152b3c680","width":"390","height":"291"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957775509","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9954954732,"gmtCreate":1675952412926,"gmtModify":1675952417392,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954954732","repostId":"9954952942","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9954952942,"gmtCreate":1675950729587,"gmtModify":1675950735076,"author":{"id":"3564479083780631","authorId":"3564479083780631","name":"第N次大变革大分流","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7ac78897b78c47a3afab38088cf5216c","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564479083780631","idStr":"3564479083780631"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","listText":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","text":"tsla反彈到230都沒問題，但這並不代表基本面改善，僅僅大量的做空彈止損或者爆倉導致的結果而已，是tsla股票超高貝塔值的表現，反彈的高並不奇怪。tesla面臨的競爭環境是越來越激烈的，而且馬斯克也絲毫沒有將精力轉移到tesla的跡象。後面還是會回探112確認底部。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9954952942","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2875,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9955390773,"gmtCreate":1675178630593,"gmtModify":1676538982268,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9955390773","repostId":"1113254562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113254562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675178228,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113254562?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-31 23:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Analyst: Cook is brilliant, Apple won't make mass layoffs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113254562","media":"新浪科技","summary":"苹果将成为科技行业的一个例外。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, Dan Ives, an analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said today that Apple will not lay off thousands of jobs like other big technology companies, because CEO Tim Cook has run Apple very well.</p><p>It was reported last week that Apple had begun laying off some non-seasonal employees in retail outlets other than the Apple Store. Some employees of Apple's retail channels who work at stores such as Best Buy have been notified of layoffs.</p><p>In addition, Apple has cut 100 contract recruiters. But so far, Apple hasn't cut jobs as massively as other big tech companies.</p><p>In this regard, Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, an investment bank, said: \"Apple has never been as aggressive in hiring employees as other technology giants. Therefore, you will only see them cutting costs on the edge. They are tacticians and have brains.\"</p><p>Ives also added: \"This just shows why Cook is a 'Hall of Fame' CEO. I think he can navigate the current situation and doesn't need to make layoffs like other tech companies.\"</p><p>Compared to 2021, Apple only increased its workforce by about 7% in 2022. If Ives' prediction is accurate, it means Apple will be an exception to the tech industry.</p><p>Prior to this, Salesforce had announced about 8,000 job cuts by 10%, Microsoft by 10,000, Amazon by 18,000, Meta by 10,000, Snap by 20% and Robinhood by 23%.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Analyst: Cook is brilliant, Apple won't make mass layoffs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnalyst: Cook is brilliant, Apple won't make mass layoffs\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-31 23:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to reports, Dan Ives, an analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said today that Apple will not lay off thousands of jobs like other big technology companies, because CEO Tim Cook has run Apple very well.</p><p>It was reported last week that Apple had begun laying off some non-seasonal employees in retail outlets other than the Apple Store. Some employees of Apple's retail channels who work at stores such as Best Buy have been notified of layoffs.</p><p>In addition, Apple has cut 100 contract recruiters. But so far, Apple hasn't cut jobs as massively as other big tech companies.</p><p>In this regard, Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, an investment bank, said: \"Apple has never been as aggressive in hiring employees as other technology giants. Therefore, you will only see them cutting costs on the edge. They are tacticians and have brains.\"</p><p>Ives also added: \"This just shows why Cook is a 'Hall of Fame' CEO. I think he can navigate the current situation and doesn't need to make layoffs like other tech companies.\"</p><p>Compared to 2021, Apple only increased its workforce by about 7% in 2022. If Ives' prediction is accurate, it means Apple will be an exception to the tech industry.</p><p>Prior to this, Salesforce had announced about 8,000 job cuts by 10%, Microsoft by 10,000, Amazon by 18,000, Meta by 10,000, Snap by 20% and Robinhood by 23%.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/it/2023-01-31/doc-imyecayz2657218.shtml\">新浪科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d8ada6a43017d400bcffc8d2d50c562","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/it/2023-01-31/doc-imyecayz2657218.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113254562","content_text":"据报道，投行Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）今日称，苹果公司不会像其他大型科技公司那样裁员数千人，因为CEO蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）把苹果运营得非常好。上周有报道称，苹果已开始在苹果零售店（Apple Store）以外的零售渠道，解雇一些非季节性员工。一些在百思买（Best Buy）等商店工作的苹果零售渠道员工，已经收到了裁员通知。此外，苹果还裁减了100名合同制招聘人员。但到目前为止，苹果还没有像其他大型科技公司那样大规模裁员。对此，投行Wedbush分析师艾夫斯称：“苹果从来没有像其他科技巨头那样，大力度招聘员工。因此，你只会看到他们在边缘地带削减成本。他们是战术家，有头脑。”艾夫斯还补充说：“这正好说明了为什么库克是一位‘名人堂’CEO。我认为，他能够驾驭当前的这种情况，不需要像其他科技公司那样进行裁员。”与2021年相比，苹果2022年的员工数量仅增加了约7%。如果艾夫斯的预测准确，意味着苹果将成为科技行业的一个例外。在此之前，Salesforce已宣布裁减10%约8000人，微软裁员1万人，亚马逊裁员1.8万人，Meta裁员1万人，Snap裁员20%，Robinhood裁员23%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924464888,"gmtCreate":1672313110044,"gmtModify":1676538670551,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924464888","repostId":"1107137579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925207370,"gmtCreate":1672024526390,"gmtModify":1676538623600,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925207370","repostId":"1190601149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926067290,"gmtCreate":1671423327811,"gmtModify":1676538534153,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","listText":"[鬼脸]&nbsp;","text":"[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926067290","repostId":"1142370958","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142370958","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1671421892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142370958?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-19 11:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Argentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won hemp\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142370958","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"与阿根廷球迷们一样激动的，还有众多的赞助商。","content":"<p><div>Argentina beat defending champions France 7-5 (4-2 on penalties) in the early hours of this morning (19th) Beijing time to win the World Cup again after a lapse of 36 years. After the results were announced, as excited as the Argentine fans, there were also numerous sponsors. This World Cup, Argentina's national team has become the favourite team of Chinese brands, with at least eight domestic brands signing with it. Argentina players celebrate their victory after the match on Dec. 18. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao Can Many Chinese brands bet on treasure There is a famous saying in football: \"It's not football but gold that rolls on the lawn of the World Cup.\" For...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Argentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won hemp\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArgentina won the championship, and these Chinese brands also \"won hemp\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-19 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Argentina beat defending champions France 7-5 (4-2 on penalties) in the early hours of this morning (19th) Beijing time to win the World Cup again after a lapse of 36 years. After the results were announced, as excited as the Argentine fans, there were also numerous sponsors. This World Cup, Argentina's national team has become the favourite team of Chinese brands, with at least eight domestic brands signing with it. Argentina players celebrate their victory after the match on Dec. 18. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Cao Can Many Chinese brands bet on treasure There is a famous saying in football: \"It's not football but gold that rolls on the lawn of the World Cup.\" For...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9a9ad9eab87374bc503239be6852d30","relate_stocks":{"YPF":"阿根廷YPF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzg3NTA5MjkyNQ==&mid=2248105445&idx=1&sn=baf6b24d4fb203f305712363fa28e0d4&chksm=cecd3337f9baba21c64620d89dfa1ac6e9548458c1eab666406e984a13ab19f0967d963d87d5&scene=126&sessionid=1671409883","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142370958","content_text":"北京时间今天（19日）凌晨，阿根廷队以7:5(点球大战4:2)击败卫冕冠军法国队，时隔36年后再次夺得世界杯冠军。比赛结果出炉后，与阿根廷球迷们一样激动的，还有众多的赞助商。本届世界杯，阿根廷国家队成为了中国品牌最喜欢的球队，至少有八家国内品牌与之签约。12月18日，阿根廷队球员在比赛后庆祝胜利。新华社记者 曹灿 摄多家中国品牌押对宝足坛有一句名言：“世界杯草坪上滚动的不是足球，而是金子。”对于赞助商来说，拥有顶级流量的世界杯也有着顶级的“带货”能力。2014年巴西世界杯德国队夺冠，阿迪达斯作为德国队主要赞助商，当年的足球装备销售额超过了20亿欧元；而在2002年韩日世界杯，韩国现代汽车斥资15亿欧元成为世界杯官方赞助商，同年现代汽车在美国的销量增长高达40％。近年来，中国企业的身影也更多地出现在世界杯球场内外。英国数据公司“环球数据”(GlobalData)的统计显示，中国企业在本届卡塔尔世界杯的赞助额达到14亿美元（约合人民币100亿元），超过了包含可口可乐、麦当劳和百威等品牌在内的美国企业（11亿美元），总赞助额位列全球第一。其中，万达与可口可乐、阿迪达斯、现代起亚、卡塔尔航空、卡塔尔能源、VISA一同，被列为国际足联七大官方合作伙伴之一。Vivo、蒙牛和海信则属于国际足联世界杯赞助商。在球队赞助商方面，阿根廷作为本届世界杯有夺冠希望的球队，赛前就受到了国内多个赞助商的青睐，包括球队及球员个人都成为了赞助目标。据南方都市报统计，包括伊利、盼盼食品、库迪咖啡、万家乐、广汽三菱、网易传媒、万达体育和灵犀娱乐，均是阿根廷队的赞助商或合作商。11月，阿根廷足协营销经理莱安德罗·彼得森表示，在已签约的全球赞助商中，中国企业占10%至15%。这让其他球队相形见绌，签约中国赞助商第二多的是葡萄牙队和西班牙队，分别有3家；德国队和比利时队分别有两家，而上届冠军法国队只有一家中国赞助商。乳企伊利和蒙牛成为“本届世界杯走到最后的赢家”，其中伊利为阿根廷队中国区赞助商，而在决赛场上，两大球星梅西、姆巴佩都是蒙牛代言人。在电视直播画面中，蒙牛“今晚彻底不慌了”的广告语在网络上也引起热议。中国企业的“世界杯梦”虽然足球强国主要集中在欧洲和美洲，但是世界杯的近一半观众都来自亚洲。据国际足联的数据，在2018年俄罗斯世界杯上，亚洲观众人数达到16亿，占全球观众总数的43%。而收视率排名前五的国家中有三个在亚洲，分别为中国、印度和印度尼西亚。中国企业与世界杯的“姻缘”虽然晚，甚至要晚于国足的首次世界杯之旅(2002年韩日世界杯)，但赞助规模的攀升速度却很快。中国对世界杯的赞助，始于2010年的南非世界杯，相信许多中国球迷迄今，依然对当届世界杯球场边线处“中国英利，光伏入户”的广告牌记忆犹新。在2014年的巴西世界杯上，英利也是唯一中资赞助商。据当时国内媒体估算，英利当时在这两届世界杯上的投入接近10亿元人民币。而随着2018年世界杯在俄罗斯举办，更多中国赞助商也纷纷出海。据统计，不少于7家中国公司赞助了2018年的俄罗斯世界杯，估计花费了8.35亿美元——远远超过美国和俄罗斯本土的品牌。在卡塔尔世界杯，中国赞助商的赞助权益也从简单的品牌露出，变为深度参与其中。下届世界杯将于2026年移师北美，中国公司对这项赛事的参与预计还将继续增加。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YPF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928485869,"gmtCreate":1671373480151,"gmtModify":1676538527122,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928485869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928414849,"gmtCreate":1671360501182,"gmtModify":1676538526739,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928414849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921850599,"gmtCreate":1671030699412,"gmtModify":1676538478713,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921850599","repostId":"1168159798","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923298618,"gmtCreate":1670859650934,"gmtModify":1676538447840,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923298618","repostId":"2290203532","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929723467,"gmtCreate":1670734924460,"gmtModify":1676538425838,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929723467","repostId":"1181442501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181442501","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1670636160,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181442501?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-10 09:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is more important to watch from the Fed's meeting next week beyond 50 basis points in rate hike?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181442501","media":"Wind万得","summary":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Fed officials have signaled that they plan to raise their benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but persistently high pay pressures could prompt the Fed to continue its rate hike and raise rates to higher levels than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Fed's pace of rate hike this year has reached its highest level since the early 1980s, including four consecutive rate hike of 0.75 percentage points in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A shift to a smaller 0.5 percentage point rate hike would mark a new phase of policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect a substantial easing of inflationary pressures next year, but rapid wage growth or rising inflation in the labor-intensive services sector may lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate above 5% next year, compared with the current peak of 5% that investors expect.</p><p>Powell said last week that since it will take some time for rate hike to curb economic growth, it will take even longer for the impact on inflation to appear. \"If we have to wait for evidence of inflation falling back, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing down the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance risks.\"</p><p>The market rebounded after Powell's comments last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from what he made last summer and fall. However, he also stressed that he has not changed his view that the bigger mistake the Fed may make is failing to control inflation.</p><p>If the Fed raises interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in December, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, which will be the highest level since December 2007. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), rose 6% year over year in October. The Fed is aiming for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of Dec. 13, the day officials will see another inflation data and the U.S. Labor Department will release its November Consumer Price Index (CPI).</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures remain high, they may consider running back-to-back rate hike at meetings this month and next February, with each rate hike of 0.5 percentage points.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive outlook for interest rates in the new quarterly economic forecast released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue the rate hike for at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. And according to the new forecast, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>\"Labor demand is more robust, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then underlying inflation is slightly higher, which suggests a slightly higher policy path compared to the situation in September,\" New York Fed President John Williams said over the past week. This is not a huge change, just a little higher.</p><p><b>Officials will likely discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their views depend on their views on potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may be more divided on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek to rate hike 50 basis points again in February because they see a greater risk of inflation not falling enough next year. Without signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may be worried that inflation could rise again.</p><p>Other officials argue that inflation is largely attributed to supply bottlenecks and an overheated housing market. They believe inflation will rapidly decline and approach 2% next year as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease. These officials are leaning towards a rate hike of 25 basis points next February.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is more important to watch from the Fed's meeting next week beyond 50 basis points in rate hike?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is more important to watch from the Fed's meeting next week beyond 50 basis points in rate hike?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-10 09:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Fed officials have signaled that they plan to raise their benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage points at next week's meeting, but persistently high pay pressures could prompt the Fed to continue its rate hike and raise rates to higher levels than investors currently expect.</p><p>The Fed's pace of rate hike this year has reached its highest level since the early 1980s, including four consecutive rate hike of 0.75 percentage points in the past four meetings to combat inflation.</p><p><b>A shift to a smaller 0.5 percentage point rate hike would mark a new phase of policy tightening.</b>Policymakers expect a substantial easing of inflationary pressures next year, but rapid wage growth or rising inflation in the labor-intensive services sector may lead more policymakers to support raising the benchmark interest rate above 5% next year, compared with the current peak of 5% that investors expect.</p><p>Powell said last week that since it will take some time for rate hike to curb economic growth, it will take even longer for the impact on inflation to appear. \"If we have to wait for evidence of inflation falling back, it will be difficult to avoid excessive tightening. We believe that slowing down the pace of tightening at this time is a good way to balance risks.\"</p><p>The market rebounded after Powell's comments last week, which some investors interpreted as a shift from what he made last summer and fall. However, he also stressed that he has not changed his view that the bigger mistake the Fed may make is failing to control inflation.</p><p>If the Fed raises interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in December, it will raise the benchmark federal funds target rate to 4.25%-4.5%, which will be the highest level since December 2007. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), rose 6% year over year in October. The Fed is aiming for inflation to fall back to 2% over time.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will begin its two-day monetary policy meeting on the morning of Dec. 13, the day officials will see another inflation data and the U.S. Labor Department will release its November Consumer Price Index (CPI).</b>If there are signs that inflationary pressures remain high, they may consider running back-to-back rate hike at meetings this month and next February, with each rate hike of 0.5 percentage points.</p><p><b>Officials are likely to signal a slightly more positive outlook for interest rates in the new quarterly economic forecast released after the upcoming meeting.</b>This could indicate that policymakers expect to continue the rate hike for at least 25 basis points until they see clear signs that the labor market has cooled.</p><p><b>Most officials in September expected rates to rise to 4.5%-5% next year. And according to the new forecast, interest rates may rise to 4.75%-5.25% next year.</b></p><p>\"Labor demand is more robust, U.S. domestic demand is stronger than I previously expected, and then underlying inflation is slightly higher, which suggests a slightly higher policy path compared to the situation in September,\" New York Fed President John Williams said over the past week. This is not a huge change, just a little higher.</p><p><b>Officials will likely discuss how much rate hike will be in February next week, and their views depend on their views on potential price pressures. If inflation slows but the labor market remains tight, they may be more divided on how to proceed.</b></p><p>Some officials may seek to rate hike 50 basis points again in February because they see a greater risk of inflation not falling enough next year. Without signs of a slowdown in hiring, they may be worried that inflation could rise again.</p><p>Other officials argue that inflation is largely attributed to supply bottlenecks and an overheated housing market. They believe inflation will rapidly decline and approach 2% next year as economic activity cools and supply chain problems ease. These officials are leaning towards a rate hike of 25 basis points next February.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181442501","content_text":"美联储官员已经释出信号，计划在下周会议上将基准利率提高0.5个百分点，但薪资压力居高不下可能会促使美联储继续加息，将利率提高到比投资者当前预期更高的水平。今年以来美联储的加息速度已经创下20世纪80年代初以来的最高水平，包括过去四次会议上连续四次加息0.75个百分点，以应对通货膨胀。转为较小的0.5个百分点的加息将标志着政策紧缩进入一个新阶段。决策者预计明年通胀压力将有实质性缓解，但劳动密集型的服务业薪资增长迅速或通胀率上升，可能导致更多决策者支持明年将基准利率提高到5%以上，而目前投资者预期的利率峰值为5%。鲍威尔上周表示，由于加息需要一段时间才能起到抑制经济增速的作用，对通胀的影响甚至需要更长时间才能显现，“如果要等待通胀回落的实证，就很难避免过度收紧。我们认为，在这个时候放慢紧缩步伐是平衡风险的一个好办法。”鲍威尔上周发表上述言论后，市场出现反弹，一些投资者将其解读为与他去年夏秋发表的言论相比发生了转变。不过他也强调，他没有改变自己的观点，即美联储可能犯的更大的错误是未能控制住通胀。若美联储12月加息0.5个百分点，将使基准的联邦基金目标利率升至4.25%-4.5%，从而将创下2007年12月以来的最高水平。美联储偏好的通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)在10月份同比上升6%。美联储的目标是，随着时间的推移，通胀率回落至2%。美联储将在12月13日上午开始为期两天的货币政策会议，当天官员们将看到另一份通胀数据，美国劳工部将公布11月份消费者价格指数(CPI)。如果有迹象显示通胀压力依然较大，他们可能会考虑在本月和明年2月的会议上连续加息，每次加息0.5个百分点。官员们可能会在即将举行的会议后发布的新季度经济预测中发出略微更积极的利率前景信号。这可能表明，政策制定者预计将继续加息至少25个基点，直到他们看到劳动力市场已经降温的明确迹象。大多数官员在9月份预计明年利率将升至4.5%-5%。而根据新的预测，明年利率可能升至4.75%-5.25%。“劳动力需求更加旺盛，美国内需比我之前预期的更强劲，然后潜在通胀率略有上升，这表明与9月份时的形势相比，政策路径会略高一些，”纽约联储银行行长威廉斯(John Williams)在过去一周表示。这并非一个巨大的变化，只是略高了一点。官员们可能会在下周讨论2月份加息多少，他们的看法取决于他们对潜在价格压力的看法。如果通胀放缓，但劳动力市场仍然紧张，他们可能会在如何进行的问题上存在更大分歧。一些官员可能会寻求在2月份再次加息50个基点，因为他们认为明年通胀下降不够的风险更大。如果没有招聘放缓的迹象，他们可能会担心通胀可能会再次上升。另一些官员认为，通胀主要归因于供应瓶颈和房地产市场过热。他们认为，随着经济活动降温，供应链问题缓解，通胀将迅速下行，并在明年接近2%。这些官员倾向于明年2月份加息25个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929646861,"gmtCreate":1670659256554,"gmtModify":1676538413884,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929646861","repostId":"2290265600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929984034,"gmtCreate":1670586265128,"gmtModify":1676538399187,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929984034","repostId":"2290473739","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290473739","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1670552014,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2290473739?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-09 10:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The heaviest data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December is coming, and the US CPI in November will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290473739","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS believes that both the overall and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth in November, and there will be no rebound in the next month like in March and July this year. Barclays believes that energy prices are driving a slowdown in the overall CPI, core services inflation is slowing but not slow, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b>The U.S. November CPI is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, December 13. The day after it is announced, the Federal Reserve will announce the resolution of the December monetary policy meeting.</p><p>In November, CPI thus became the last heavy inflation data released by the Federal Reserve before making a decision. It is undoubtedly the most important US economic data to be released next week, and it is the heavy data that may influence the recent decision-making of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Will this momentum continue in November after U.S. CPI growth slowed more than expected in October? Two Wall Street institutions have released detailed outlooks on CPI.</p><p><b>UBS: Both overall and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth, and the month-on-month growth rate of core inflation will gradually decline in the future</b></p><p>UBS expects CPI to confirm a slowdown in growth in November. Growth in headline CPI prices will be slower in November than in the previous two months as gasoline prices are weaker, with headline CPI rising by 0.26% month-on-month after a seasonal adjustment, the third-lowest month-on-month growth since inflation began to rise early last year, down from 0.39% growth in September and 0.44% growth in October.</p><p>UBS expects CPI to rise 7.3% year-on-year in November, a 0.5 percentage point slowdown from October's growth rate and a 1 percentage point decline in three months, away from June's peak of 9.1%.</p><p>For the core CPI after excluding volatile food and energy prices, UBS expects it to increase by 0.31% month-on-month in November, roughly consistent with the 0.27% growth rate in October. The price growth of food in November is expected to be 0.88%, slightly faster than the 0.6% in October.</p><p>UBS expects that the core CPI will increase by 6.1% year-on-year in November, down 0.2 percentage points from October's growth rate and 0.5 percentage points from the peak level of 6.6% in September.</p><p>UBS believes that November core CPI will confirm the slowdown in growth reflected in October's data. Unlike the inflation rebounded the following month after slowing down in March and July this year, UBS did not find high-frequency and leading indicators suggesting that November would rebound compared with October. That is to say, among the component prices of core CPI inflation, only a small part of the growth in November was stronger than that in October, such as air tickets, clothing and household goods. Used car prices are expected to decline steadily again, and rent increases will be strong, but still well below the peak growth rate in September.</p><p>Looking ahead to the December U.S. CPI released in January next year, UBS expects the growth rate of the overall CPI to slow down slightly as gasoline prices continue to decline steadily. The situation of core CPI is complicated, because last Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed that the strong wage growth may support the upward trend of any core service inflation other than rent, while the indicators of rent and core commodities still show a downward trend, such as the global freight cost continues to decline, the delivery time of suppliers is reduced, and it falls into the deceleration range.</p><p><b>Barclays: Energy prices drive headline CPI slowdown, core services inflation is slowing, but not slow, and core commodities will continue to deflate</b></p><p>Barclays expects the overall CPI to increase by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year in November; The month-on-month growth of food inflation will slow slightly to 0.6% in November, and energy prices fell 1.7% month-on-month in November, falling for the third month in the last four months, and are driving the headline CPI slowdown.</p><p>Barclays also expects that core CPI will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year in November, of which core service inflation will increase by 0.42% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year; Core commodities will remain moderately deflationary, and are expected to fall by 0.16% month-on-month, easing from the 0.38% month-on-month decline in October, which was the third largest deflationary rate in nearly two decades.</p><p>Barclays believes that core services inflation remains strong, just that growth is slowing, not slow, and that it is again supported by strong housing inflation. Excluding the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, 0.42% would be the highest month-on-month growth in core services inflation since early 2005.</p><p>Barclays also believes to be on the lookout for core services inflation that excludes housing from future CPI data, as Fed Chairman Powell specifically mentioned in his speech last week that excluding core services for housing, saying it is \"probably the most important category to understand the evolution of core inflation in the future.\" It also referred to services other than housing, which are closely linked to the labour market, saying that \"because wages constitute the largest category of costs for providing these services, the labour market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category\".</p><p>In terms of core commodities, Barclays believes that the trend of continued deflation in November comes from a major driver, that is, the pressure on the global supply chain has generally eased rapidly, and the current supply chain pressure is only slightly exceeding the level before the COVID-19 epidemic. And, retailers' inventories are mostly rebuilt right now, at levels close to pre-pandemic trends, which should continue to help balance supply and demand for goods beyond energy and food. Barclays also found that several sub-categories will drive core commodities downward, such as used cars whose prices have fallen for four months.</p><p>In the medium-term forecast, Barclays' CPI expectation has changed little compared with before, but it will continue to reflect the high uncertainty of the domestic inflation path in the United States. It expects headline CPI to grow by 6.5% year-over-year in December this year, slowing to 2.7% year-over-year in 2023, that is, next December, and further to 2.3% by December 2024. Overall CPI is up 8.0% year-over-year this year, 4.3% next year and 2.4% in 2024. Some of the headline inflation weakness next year stems from lower energy prices by then.</p><p>Barclays expects core CPI growth to slow to 5.8% year-over-year in December this year from a peak of 6.7% in September, drop to 2.9% year-over-year by December next year, and slow further to 2.4% by December 2024.</p><p>Barclays expects core services inflation to increase by 6.9%, 4.2% and 3.2% year-on-year this year, next year and 2024, respectively. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of housing inflation is expected to peak in the first half of next year, exceed 6% for most of next year, and fall back to close to 3% by the end of 2024.</p><p>For core commodities, Barclays expects the first half of next year to be in a moderately deflationary phase, with core commodities growing at 2.8%, 0.4% and 0.3% year-over-year for this year, next year and 2024, respectively. This forecast is based on the assumption that the global supply chain slowdown will continue and eventually return to near historical normal levels by the end of next year, and that a mild recession will begin in the second quarter of next year, affecting demand for goods.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The heaviest data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December is coming, and the US CPI in November will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe heaviest data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December is coming, and the US CPI in November will be announced next week. What does Wall Street think?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-09 10:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>UBS believes that both the overall and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth in November, and there will be no rebound in the next month like in March and July this year. Barclays believes that energy prices are driving a slowdown in the overall CPI, core services inflation is slowing but not slow, and core commodities will continue to deflate.</b>The U.S. November CPI is scheduled to be released next Tuesday, December 13. The day after it is announced, the Federal Reserve will announce the resolution of the December monetary policy meeting.</p><p>In November, CPI thus became the last heavy inflation data released by the Federal Reserve before making a decision. It is undoubtedly the most important US economic data to be released next week, and it is the heavy data that may influence the recent decision-making of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Will this momentum continue in November after U.S. CPI growth slowed more than expected in October? Two Wall Street institutions have released detailed outlooks on CPI.</p><p><b>UBS: Both overall and core CPI will confirm a slowdown in growth, and the month-on-month growth rate of core inflation will gradually decline in the future</b></p><p>UBS expects CPI to confirm a slowdown in growth in November. Growth in headline CPI prices will be slower in November than in the previous two months as gasoline prices are weaker, with headline CPI rising by 0.26% month-on-month after a seasonal adjustment, the third-lowest month-on-month growth since inflation began to rise early last year, down from 0.39% growth in September and 0.44% growth in October.</p><p>UBS expects CPI to rise 7.3% year-on-year in November, a 0.5 percentage point slowdown from October's growth rate and a 1 percentage point decline in three months, away from June's peak of 9.1%.</p><p>For the core CPI after excluding volatile food and energy prices, UBS expects it to increase by 0.31% month-on-month in November, roughly consistent with the 0.27% growth rate in October. The price growth of food in November is expected to be 0.88%, slightly faster than the 0.6% in October.</p><p>UBS expects that the core CPI will increase by 6.1% year-on-year in November, down 0.2 percentage points from October's growth rate and 0.5 percentage points from the peak level of 6.6% in September.</p><p>UBS believes that November core CPI will confirm the slowdown in growth reflected in October's data. Unlike the inflation rebounded the following month after slowing down in March and July this year, UBS did not find high-frequency and leading indicators suggesting that November would rebound compared with October. That is to say, among the component prices of core CPI inflation, only a small part of the growth in November was stronger than that in October, such as air tickets, clothing and household goods. Used car prices are expected to decline steadily again, and rent increases will be strong, but still well below the peak growth rate in September.</p><p>Looking ahead to the December U.S. CPI released in January next year, UBS expects the growth rate of the overall CPI to slow down slightly as gasoline prices continue to decline steadily. The situation of core CPI is complicated, because last Friday's non-farm payrolls report showed that the strong wage growth may support the upward trend of any core service inflation other than rent, while the indicators of rent and core commodities still show a downward trend, such as the global freight cost continues to decline, the delivery time of suppliers is reduced, and it falls into the deceleration range.</p><p><b>Barclays: Energy prices drive headline CPI slowdown, core services inflation is slowing, but not slow, and core commodities will continue to deflate</b></p><p>Barclays expects the overall CPI to increase by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.2% year-on-year in November; The month-on-month growth of food inflation will slow slightly to 0.6% in November, and energy prices fell 1.7% month-on-month in November, falling for the third month in the last four months, and are driving the headline CPI slowdown.</p><p>Barclays also expects that core CPI will increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year in November, of which core service inflation will increase by 0.42% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year; Core commodities will remain moderately deflationary, and are expected to fall by 0.16% month-on-month, easing from the 0.38% month-on-month decline in October, which was the third largest deflationary rate in nearly two decades.</p><p>Barclays believes that core services inflation remains strong, just that growth is slowing, not slow, and that it is again supported by strong housing inflation. Excluding the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, 0.42% would be the highest month-on-month growth in core services inflation since early 2005.</p><p>Barclays also believes to be on the lookout for core services inflation that excludes housing from future CPI data, as Fed Chairman Powell specifically mentioned in his speech last week that excluding core services for housing, saying it is \"probably the most important category to understand the evolution of core inflation in the future.\" It also referred to services other than housing, which are closely linked to the labour market, saying that \"because wages constitute the largest category of costs for providing these services, the labour market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category\".</p><p>In terms of core commodities, Barclays believes that the trend of continued deflation in November comes from a major driver, that is, the pressure on the global supply chain has generally eased rapidly, and the current supply chain pressure is only slightly exceeding the level before the COVID-19 epidemic. And, retailers' inventories are mostly rebuilt right now, at levels close to pre-pandemic trends, which should continue to help balance supply and demand for goods beyond energy and food. Barclays also found that several sub-categories will drive core commodities downward, such as used cars whose prices have fallen for four months.</p><p>In the medium-term forecast, Barclays' CPI expectation has changed little compared with before, but it will continue to reflect the high uncertainty of the domestic inflation path in the United States. It expects headline CPI to grow by 6.5% year-over-year in December this year, slowing to 2.7% year-over-year in 2023, that is, next December, and further to 2.3% by December 2024. Overall CPI is up 8.0% year-over-year this year, 4.3% next year and 2.4% in 2024. Some of the headline inflation weakness next year stems from lower energy prices by then.</p><p>Barclays expects core CPI growth to slow to 5.8% year-over-year in December this year from a peak of 6.7% in September, drop to 2.9% year-over-year by December next year, and slow further to 2.4% by December 2024.</p><p>Barclays expects core services inflation to increase by 6.9%, 4.2% and 3.2% year-on-year this year, next year and 2024, respectively. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of housing inflation is expected to peak in the first half of next year, exceed 6% for most of next year, and fall back to close to 3% by the end of 2024.</p><p>For core commodities, Barclays expects the first half of next year to be in a moderately deflationary phase, with core commodities growing at 2.8%, 0.4% and 0.3% year-over-year for this year, next year and 2024, respectively. This forecast is based on the assumption that the global supply chain slowdown will continue and eventually return to near historical normal levels by the end of next year, and that a mild recession will begin in the second quarter of next year, affecting demand for goods.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677048\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e840b1c7925bc414d98748d69475fa0","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3677048","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290473739","content_text":"瑞银认为，11月总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，不会出现今年3月和7月那样的次月反弹。巴克莱认为，能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩。美国11月CPI 定于12月13日下周二公布。它公布的次日，美联储就将宣布12月货币政策会议的决议。11月CPI由此成为美联储制定决策前最后发布的重磅通胀数据，也无疑是下周将公布的最重要美国经济数据，是可能左右联储近期决策的重磅数据。在10月美国CPI增长超预期放缓后，11月还会延续这样的势头吗？两家华尔街机构公布了有关CPI的详细前瞻。瑞银：总体与核心CPI都将确认增长放缓，未来核心通胀月环比增速将逐步下降瑞银预计，11月CPI将确认增长放缓。由于汽油价格更为疲软，11月总体CPI价格的增长将比前两个月更慢，季节性调整后，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.26%，为去年初通胀开始高涨以来第三低的月环比增速，低于9月的增速0.39%和10月的0.44%。瑞银预计，11月CPI同比增长7.3%，较10月的增速放缓0.5个百分点，三个月内下降1个百分点，远离6月的巅峰水平9.1%。对于剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI，瑞银预计，11月将环比增长0.31%，大致和10月增速0.27%一致。11月食品的价格增速料将为0.88%，略快于10月的0.6%。瑞银预计，11月核心CPI将同比增长6.1%，较10月增速回落0.2个百分点，较9月的巅峰水平6.6%回落0.5个百分点。瑞银认为，11月核心CPI将确认10月数据体现的增长放缓。不同于今年3月和7月通胀放缓后次月就反弹的情况，瑞银并未发现高频和先行的指标暗示11月会较10月有所回升。也就是说，核心CPI通胀的组成价格之中，只有很少一部分11月的增长比10月强劲，比如机票、服装、家用物品。二手车价格料将再次稳步下滑，房租上涨将很强劲，但仍远低于9月的巅峰增速。展望明年1月公布的12月美国CPI，瑞银预计总体CPI的增速将小幅放缓，因为汽油价格将继续稳步下跌。核心CPI的情况复杂，因为上周五的非农就业报告显示，薪资的强劲增长可能支持任何房租以外的核心服务类通胀上行，而房租与核心商品的指标仍体现下行趋势，比如全球货运成本继续下降、供应商配送时间减少、跌入减速区间。巴克莱：能源价格推动总体CPI放缓，核心服务通胀放缓、但并非缓慢，核心商品将继续通缩巴克莱预计，11月总体CPI将环比增长0.2%，同比增长7.2%；11月食品通胀的环比增速将略微放缓至0.6%，11月能源价格环比下降1.7%，最近四个月内第三个月下跌，是总体CPI放缓的推手。巴克莱还预计，11月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，同比增长6.0%，其中核心服务通胀环比增长0.42%、同比增长6.8%；核心商品仍将是温和通缩，料将环比下降0.16%，较10月创近二十年来第三大通缩幅度的环比降幅0.38%缓和。巴克莱认为，核心服务通胀仍强劲，只是增长在放缓，并不是增长缓慢，它再次得到住房通胀强劲的支持。不计新冠疫情初期在内，0.42%将是2005年初以来核心服务通胀的最高月环比增速。巴克莱还认为，要留意未来CPI数据中剔除住房的核心服务通胀，因为美联储主席鲍威尔上周在讲话中特别提到，剔除住房的核心服务，称它“可能是理解未来核心通胀演变的最重要类别”。它还提到了和劳动力市场密切相关的住房以外服务业，称“因为薪资组成了提供这些服务的最大一类成本，劳动力市场掌握着理解该类别通胀的钥匙”。核心商品方面，巴克莱认为，11月将继续通缩的趋势来自一大推手，即全球供应链的压力普遍且迅速地缓和，目前的供应链压力只是略为超过新冠疫情前水平。而且，零售商的库存目前大部分重建，处于接近疫情前趋势的水平，这应该会继续帮助平衡能源和食品以外的商品供需。巴克莱还发现，多个分项类别将推动核心商品下行，比如价格已连跌四个月的二手车。中期预测方面，巴克莱的CPI预期相比之前变化很小，但会继续体现美国国内通胀道路的不确定性很高。其预计，今年12月的总体CPI将同比增长6.5%，2023年、即明年12月的同比增速将放缓至2.7%，到2024年12月进一步降至2.3%。总体CPI今年同比增长8.0%、明年增4.3%，2024年增2.4%。明年的总体通胀疲软部分源于届时能源价格下跌。巴克莱预计，今年12月核心CPI同比增速从9月的巅峰6.7%放缓至5.8%，到明年12月，同比增速降至2.9%，到2024年12月，进一步放缓至2.4%。巴克莱预计，今年、明年和2024年的核心服务通胀分别同比增长6.9%、4.2%和3.2%，其中住房通胀的同比增速料将在明年上半年达到顶峰，明年多数时间超过6%，到2024年末，回落到接近3%。对于核心商品，巴克莱预计明年上半年都会处于温和通缩阶段，今年、明年和2024年的核心商品同比增速将分别为2.8%、0.4%和0.3%。这一预测是基于假定全球供应链放缓将持续，并最终在明年底以前回到接近历史正常水平，而且明年二季度将开始出现温和衰退，影响商品的需求。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QLD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":1,"SDS":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"CPI":1,"DOG":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920273021,"gmtCreate":1670511632963,"gmtModify":1676538383175,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920273021","repostId":"2289467753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920041084,"gmtCreate":1670404223548,"gmtModify":1676538361133,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920041084","repostId":"2289040001","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967908273,"gmtCreate":1670243347292,"gmtModify":1676538327650,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967908273","repostId":"1144407861","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144407861","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670242416,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144407861?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-05 20:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Leapmotor: Included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective December 5","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144407861","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月5日，零跑汽车：根据上海证券交易所及深圳证券交易所刊发的公告，本公司股份获纳入为沪港通计划和深港通计划相应股票名单的合资格股份，均自2022年12月5日起生效。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On December 5,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">Leapmotor</a>: According to the announcements issued by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the shares of the Company were included as eligible shares in the corresponding lists of shares under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme, both with effect from 5 December 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83d3157665237cd5c02c891375d67a9\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"747\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Leapmotor: Included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective December 5</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLeapmotor: Included in Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective December 5\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-05 20:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On December 5,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09863\">Leapmotor</a>: According to the announcements issued by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the shares of the Company were included as eligible shares in the corresponding lists of shares under the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme, both with effect from 5 December 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b83d3157665237cd5c02c891375d67a9\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"747\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0800d0811a4a57cf8d539fbb32126521","relate_stocks":{"BK1119":"汽车制造商","09863":"零跑汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144407861","content_text":"12月5日，零跑汽车：根据上海证券交易所及深圳证券交易所刊发的公告，本公司股份获纳入为沪港通计划和深港通计划相应股票名单的合资格股份，均自2022年12月5日起生效。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09863":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964642916,"gmtCreate":1670142108336,"gmtModify":1676538309869,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964642916","repostId":"1117962450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117962450","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1670028929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117962450?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 08:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last Night This Morning | Intraday Reversal After Employment Report! China Concept Index Surges More Than 20% This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117962450","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①非农数据强化联储加息预期，道指惊险转涨；②中概指数本周大涨逾20%。海外行情1、非农数据强化联储加息预期美股收盘涨跌不一股周五收盘涨跌不一，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。美国11月非农就业人数与薪资","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Non-agricultural data strengthened the expectation of the Fed's rate hike, and the Dow rose thrillingly; ② The China Concept Index rose by more than 20% this week. Overseas Quotes</p><p>1. Non-agricultural data strengthens the Fed's rate hike expectation that U.S. stocks close mixed</p><p>Stocks closed mixed on Friday, with all three major indexes recording gains this week. In November, the number of non-farm payrolls and wage increases in the United States exceeded expectations, indicating that the inflationary pressure will be high in the future. The Federal Reserve still needs to continue to curb inflation, and it may accumulate another 100 basis points of rate hike in the future.</p><p>The Dow rose 34.87 points, or 0.10%, to 34,429.88 points; The Nasdaq fell 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50 points; The S&P 500 fell 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.70. The Dow is up 0.24% on the week, the S&P 500 is up 1.13% and the Nasdaq is up 2.09%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese stocks rose on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Over 33%Bilibili rose over 16%</p><p>On Friday, popular Chinese stocks rose generally, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 5.39%. The index rose by more than 22% this week, the largest weekly increase since mid-March.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">Suntech Institutions</a>It rose more than 50%, Zhihu rose more than 33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Interesting headlines</a>Up more than 30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Over 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">BEST GROUP</a>It rose by more than 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Education together,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Ding dong shopping for groceries</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>Fog Core Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>It rose by more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">Tuya Intelligence</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">Atour</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>Leju rose by more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p>3. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.5% on Friday, up 4.9% this week</p><p>The main indexes of European stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with Germany's DAX30 index closing up 0.65% on Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 0.19%, France's CAC40 rose 0.23%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 rose 0.50%.</p><p>4. Most European stocks closed down, German DAX30 rose 0.27% against the trend</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.27%, and the U.K.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100</a>It fell by 0.01%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.17%, the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.17%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell by 0.30%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell by 0.30%.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.24, or 1.5%, to close at $79.98 per barrel. Based on the most active contracts, WTI crude oil futures rose 4.9% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.3% on Friday, up 3.2% this week</p><p>Gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.60, or 0.3%, to close at $1,809.60 per ounce.</p><p>According to the most active contracts, the price of gold futures has risen by 3.2% this week.</p><p>Macro News</p><p>1. The balance of outstanding federal government debt in the United States reached $31.41 trillion, which has exceeded the ceiling</p><p>On December 2nd, local time, according to the data of the U.S. Treasury Department, the balance of outstanding federal government debt in the United States has reached $31.41 trillion.</p><p>It is reported that the U.S. Treasury Bond exceeded $30 trillion in February 2022 and $31 trillion in October. At present, the debt ceiling of the United States is 31.4 trillion dollars, and the existing Treasury Bond of the United States has exceeded the ceiling, resulting in debt default.</p><p>2. Labor force participation in the United States is falling again, and more people are leaving the workplace</p><p>The U.S. labor force participation rate fell for the third straight month in November, highlighting the challenges businesses face in finding enough employees.</p><p>The percentage of Americans working or actively seeking work fell to 62.1%, according to government data released Friday. It had risen to 62.4% in August, matching the post-pandemic high set in March but still well below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>3. U.S. President Joe Biden signs a bill to avoid a nationwide railroad worker strike</p><p>On December 2, local time, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a bill to avoid a national railway worker strike to resolve the labor dispute among railway workers.</p><p>It is reported that the House of Representatives passed the bill on November 30th local time, and the Senate also voted to pass it on December 1st and submitted it to Biden. Without the bill, railroad workers across the U.S. could impose a strike as early as Dec. 9, which would lead to a host of problems such as cargo shortages, soaring prices and factory shutdowns.</p><p>4. Poland agrees to the EU's maximum price limit of 60 USD per barrel for oil shipped by sea to Russia</p><p>According to German media reports on December 2nd local time, Poland has agreed that the maximum price of EU maritime oil to Russia is $60 per barrel. The final decision will come into effect after the official announcement.</p><p>5. German Chancellor discusses high inflation and high energy price responses with business representatives</p><p>On December 2nd, local time, German Federal Chancellor Scholz exchanged views with the CEOs of many large German enterprises on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the German economy at the Chancellor's Office.</p><p>The meeting focused on measures to mitigate the effects of high inflation, such as providing inflation compensation, where businesses can pay employees a subsidy of up to 3,000 euros, which is tax-deductible, while employees can be compensated for the actual loss of earnings.</p><p>Participants also discussed the impact of high energy prices.</p><p>6. The wind is insufficient in the cold winter, and the electricity price and gas price in Europe are both climbing</p><p>Wind power has fallen sharply in Europe amid the cold winter, pushing up electricity and gas prices and highlighting the fragility of the continent's energy system.</p><p>Currently, European consumers and businesses are particularly sensitive to soaring energy bills. Energy traders keep an eye on weather conditions, as it can greatly affect the supply and demand of natural gas, and it can also cause big ups and downs in prices.</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, European natural gas prices have soared one after another, rising by more than 13% on Thursday, reaching the highest level since October 13th. After a relatively mild November, temperatures across Europe are dropping this month.</p><p>7. OPEC crude oil production fell to 28.79 million barrels per day in November, the largest decline in nearly two years</p><p>OPEC crude oil production recorded its biggest drop since 2020 in November to meet the latest cut agreement reached by OPEC +. The survey showed that the total output cut of all OPEC member countries in that month was slightly more than 1 million barrels per day, bringing the total output to 28.79 million barrels. Among them, Saudi Arabia reduced production by 470,000 barrels per day to 10.44 million barrels per day, and other Gulf oil-producing countries also followed suit. OPCE + will hold its next regular meeting on December 4 and is expected to maintain existing capacity. Previously, US President Joe Biden had urged OPEC to increase crude oil supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288971479\" target=\"_blank\">Following Tesla and BMW, Volkswagen Will Build EVs in China for Export to Europe</a></p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen said its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will build its first electric SUV, the Tavascan, at a joint venture plant in Anhui. VW's move is due to limited production capacity in Germany's domestic market. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects that up to 800,000 Chinese-made vehicles could be sold in Europe by 2025, mostly pure electric vehicles.</p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen issued a statement saying that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will build its first electric SUV, the Tavascan, at a Volkswagen joint venture plant in Anhui.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288967004\" target=\"_blank\">The talent war is a thing of the past $ JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and others are reported to slash investment banking department bonuses</a></p><p>Across Wall Street, pessimistic expectations for banker bonuses are quickly being fulfilled, shrinking investment banking activity has put a halt to the battle for talent, and companies have regained the upper hand on fixed pay.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, JPMorgan Chase,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citigroup and Citigroup are considering cutting investment bankers' bonus pools by as much as 30%. Some companies plan to give poor-performing employees no bonuses at all. Sources say the proposals are still under discussion and may be adjusted in the coming weeks.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288296703\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer invests €2.4bn in European production expansion to prepare for declining revenue from Covid products</a></p><p>On Friday local time, Pfizer announced that it would invest 1.2 billion euros to expand the production capacity of the factory in the Pierce region of Belgium. The company just announced on Thursday that it will invest the same amount of capital to expand production at its Dublin plant in Ireland.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1120601796\" target=\"_blank\">Two months ruined the good results of the first three quarters Bridgewater Fund's annual rate of return lost more than half</a></p><p>Hedge fund giant Bridgewater was expected to record its best annual performance in more than a decade. As a result, the fourth quarter became its Waterloo, and most of the returns made in the first three quarters were thrown back.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha fund fell 13.2% in the fourth quarter ended Nov. 25, and its cumulative gain this year fell to 6%. The fund surged 22% in the first three quarters and was on track to surpass 2010's 27% for its biggest annual gain in 12 years. This fund product is a low-leveraged version of Bridgewater Pure Alpha II.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night This Morning | Intraday Reversal After Employment Report! China Concept Index Surges More Than 20% This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night This Morning | Intraday Reversal After Employment Report! China Concept Index Surges More Than 20% This Week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-12-03 08:55</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① Non-agricultural data strengthened the expectation of the Fed's rate hike, and the Dow rose thrillingly; ② The China Concept Index rose by more than 20% this week. Overseas Quotes</p><p>1. Non-agricultural data strengthens the Fed's rate hike expectation that U.S. stocks close mixed</p><p>Stocks closed mixed on Friday, with all three major indexes recording gains this week. In November, the number of non-farm payrolls and wage increases in the United States exceeded expectations, indicating that the inflationary pressure will be high in the future. The Federal Reserve still needs to continue to curb inflation, and it may accumulate another 100 basis points of rate hike in the future.</p><p>The Dow rose 34.87 points, or 0.10%, to 34,429.88 points; The Nasdaq fell 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50 points; The S&P 500 fell 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.70. The Dow is up 0.24% on the week, the S&P 500 is up 1.13% and the Nasdaq is up 2.09%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese stocks rose on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>Over 33%Bilibili rose over 16%</p><p>On Friday, popular Chinese stocks rose generally, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 5.39%. The index rose by more than 22% this week, the largest weekly increase since mid-March.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">Suntech Institutions</a>It rose more than 50%, Zhihu rose more than 33%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">Interesting headlines</a>Up more than 30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Over 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEST\">BEST GROUP</a>It rose by more than 16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TOUR\">Tuniu</a>Education together,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">Ding dong shopping for groceries</a>Up more than 15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>Fog Core Technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">Kingsoft Cloud</a>It rose by more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">Tuya Intelligence</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATAT\">Atour</a>Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>Leju rose by more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Up more than 10%.</p><p>3. U.S. WTI crude oil closed down 1.5% on Friday, up 4.9% this week</p><p>The main indexes of European stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with Germany's DAX30 index closing up 0.65% on Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>The index fell 0.19%, France's CAC40 rose 0.23%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 rose 0.50%.</p><p>4. Most European stocks closed down, German DAX30 rose 0.27% against the trend</p><p>Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.27%, and the U.K.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100</a>It fell by 0.01%, France's CAC40 index fell by 0.17%, the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.17%, Spain's IBEX35 index fell by 0.30%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell by 0.30%.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.24, or 1.5%, to close at $79.98 per barrel. Based on the most active contracts, WTI crude oil futures rose 4.9% this week.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.3% on Friday, up 3.2% this week</p><p>Gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $5.60, or 0.3%, to close at $1,809.60 per ounce.</p><p>According to the most active contracts, the price of gold futures has risen by 3.2% this week.</p><p>Macro News</p><p>1. The balance of outstanding federal government debt in the United States reached $31.41 trillion, which has exceeded the ceiling</p><p>On December 2nd, local time, according to the data of the U.S. Treasury Department, the balance of outstanding federal government debt in the United States has reached $31.41 trillion.</p><p>It is reported that the U.S. Treasury Bond exceeded $30 trillion in February 2022 and $31 trillion in October. At present, the debt ceiling of the United States is 31.4 trillion dollars, and the existing Treasury Bond of the United States has exceeded the ceiling, resulting in debt default.</p><p>2. Labor force participation in the United States is falling again, and more people are leaving the workplace</p><p>The U.S. labor force participation rate fell for the third straight month in November, highlighting the challenges businesses face in finding enough employees.</p><p>The percentage of Americans working or actively seeking work fell to 62.1%, according to government data released Friday. It had risen to 62.4% in August, matching the post-pandemic high set in March but still well below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p>3. U.S. President Joe Biden signs a bill to avoid a nationwide railroad worker strike</p><p>On December 2, local time, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a bill to avoid a national railway worker strike to resolve the labor dispute among railway workers.</p><p>It is reported that the House of Representatives passed the bill on November 30th local time, and the Senate also voted to pass it on December 1st and submitted it to Biden. Without the bill, railroad workers across the U.S. could impose a strike as early as Dec. 9, which would lead to a host of problems such as cargo shortages, soaring prices and factory shutdowns.</p><p>4. Poland agrees to the EU's maximum price limit of 60 USD per barrel for oil shipped by sea to Russia</p><p>According to German media reports on December 2nd local time, Poland has agreed that the maximum price of EU maritime oil to Russia is $60 per barrel. The final decision will come into effect after the official announcement.</p><p>5. German Chancellor discusses high inflation and high energy price responses with business representatives</p><p>On December 2nd, local time, German Federal Chancellor Scholz exchanged views with the CEOs of many large German enterprises on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the German economy at the Chancellor's Office.</p><p>The meeting focused on measures to mitigate the effects of high inflation, such as providing inflation compensation, where businesses can pay employees a subsidy of up to 3,000 euros, which is tax-deductible, while employees can be compensated for the actual loss of earnings.</p><p>Participants also discussed the impact of high energy prices.</p><p>6. The wind is insufficient in the cold winter, and the electricity price and gas price in Europe are both climbing</p><p>Wind power has fallen sharply in Europe amid the cold winter, pushing up electricity and gas prices and highlighting the fragility of the continent's energy system.</p><p>Currently, European consumers and businesses are particularly sensitive to soaring energy bills. Energy traders keep an eye on weather conditions, as it can greatly affect the supply and demand of natural gas, and it can also cause big ups and downs in prices.</p><p>Since the beginning of this week, European natural gas prices have soared one after another, rising by more than 13% on Thursday, reaching the highest level since October 13th. After a relatively mild November, temperatures across Europe are dropping this month.</p><p>7. OPEC crude oil production fell to 28.79 million barrels per day in November, the largest decline in nearly two years</p><p>OPEC crude oil production recorded its biggest drop since 2020 in November to meet the latest cut agreement reached by OPEC +. The survey showed that the total output cut of all OPEC member countries in that month was slightly more than 1 million barrels per day, bringing the total output to 28.79 million barrels. Among them, Saudi Arabia reduced production by 470,000 barrels per day to 10.44 million barrels per day, and other Gulf oil-producing countries also followed suit. OPCE + will hold its next regular meeting on December 4 and is expected to maintain existing capacity. Previously, US President Joe Biden had urged OPEC to increase crude oil supply.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288971479\" target=\"_blank\">Following Tesla and BMW, Volkswagen Will Build EVs in China for Export to Europe</a></p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen said its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will build its first electric SUV, the Tavascan, at a joint venture plant in Anhui. VW's move is due to limited production capacity in Germany's domestic market. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects that up to 800,000 Chinese-made vehicles could be sold in Europe by 2025, mostly pure electric vehicles.</p><p>On Friday, Volkswagen issued a statement saying that its Spanish sub-brand Cupra will build its first electric SUV, the Tavascan, at a Volkswagen joint venture plant in Anhui.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288967004\" target=\"_blank\">The talent war is a thing of the past $ JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and others are reported to slash investment banking department bonuses</a></p><p>Across Wall Street, pessimistic expectations for banker bonuses are quickly being fulfilled, shrinking investment banking activity has put a halt to the battle for talent, and companies have regained the upper hand on fixed pay.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, JPMorgan Chase,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Citigroup and Citigroup are considering cutting investment bankers' bonus pools by as much as 30%. Some companies plan to give poor-performing employees no bonuses at all. Sources say the proposals are still under discussion and may be adjusted in the coming weeks.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2288296703\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer invests €2.4bn in European production expansion to prepare for declining revenue from Covid products</a></p><p>On Friday local time, Pfizer announced that it would invest 1.2 billion euros to expand the production capacity of the factory in the Pierce region of Belgium. The company just announced on Thursday that it will invest the same amount of capital to expand production at its Dublin plant in Ireland.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1120601796\" target=\"_blank\">Two months ruined the good results of the first three quarters Bridgewater Fund's annual rate of return lost more than half</a></p><p>Hedge fund giant Bridgewater was expected to record its best annual performance in more than a decade. As a result, the fourth quarter became its Waterloo, and most of the returns made in the first three quarters were thrown back.</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, the Pure Alpha fund fell 13.2% in the fourth quarter ended Nov. 25, and its cumulative gain this year fell to 6%. The fund surged 22% in the first three quarters and was on track to surpass 2010's 27% for its biggest annual gain in 12 years. This fund product is a low-leveraged version of Bridgewater Pure Alpha II.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117962450","content_text":"摘要：①非农数据强化联储加息预期，道指惊险转涨；②中概指数本周大涨逾20%。海外行情1、非农数据强化联储加息预期美股收盘涨跌不一股周五收盘涨跌不一，三大股指本周均录得涨幅。美国11月非农就业人数与薪资增幅均超预期，预示着未来通胀压力高企，美联储仍需继续遏制通胀，未来可能累计再加息100个基点。道指涨34.87点，涨幅为0.10%，报34429.88点；纳指跌20.95点，跌幅为0.18%，报11461.50点；标普500指数跌4.87点，跌幅为0.12%，报4071.70点。本周道指上涨0.24%，标普500指数上涨1.13%，纳指上涨2.09%。2、周五热门中概股普涨知乎涨超33%B站涨超16%周五热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克金龙指数涨5.39%。该指数本周累涨超22%，创3月中旬以来最大单周涨幅。尚德机构涨超50%，知乎涨超33%，趣头条涨超30%，哔哩哔哩涨超16%、百世集团涨超16%，途牛、一起教育、叮咚买菜涨超15%，小鹏汽车、爱奇艺、雾芯科技、金山云涨超14%，涂鸦智能、亚朵集团、高途、乐居涨超11%，小牛电动涨超10%。3、美国WTI原油周五收跌1.5% 本周上涨4.9%欧股主要指数周四收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数周四收涨0.65%，英国富时100指数跌0.19%，法国CAC40指数涨0.23%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.50%。4、欧股多数收跌 德国DAX30逆势涨0.27%德国DAX30指数涨0.27%，英国富时100指数跌0.01%，法国CAC40指数跌0.17%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.17%，西班牙IBEX35指数跌0.30%，意大利富时MIB指数跌0.30%。纽约商品交易所1月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌1.24美元，跌幅为1.5%，报收于每桶79.98美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周WTI原油期货累计上涨4.9%。5、纽约黄金期货周五收跌0.3% 本周累计上涨3.2%纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌5.60美元，跌幅为0.3%，报收于每盎司1809.60美元。按照最活跃合约计算，本周黄金期货价格累计上涨3.2%。宏观新闻1、美国未偿联邦政府债务余额达31.41万亿美元 已超上限当地时间12月2日，据美国财政部的数据，美国未偿联邦政府债务余额已达到31.41万亿美元。据悉，美国国债于2022年2月份超过30万亿美元，于10月份超过31万亿美元。目前美国债务上限为31.4万亿美元，美国现有国债已超过上限，出现债务违约。2、美国劳动力参与率再次下降 越来越多人离开职场美国11月劳动力参与率连续第三个月下降，凸显出企业在寻找足够员工方面的挑战。根据周五公布的政府数据，在职或积极寻找工作的美国人比例降至62.1%。8月份该比例曾升至62.4%，追平了3月份创下的疫情后高点，但仍远低于大流行病爆发前的水平。3、美国总统拜登签署一项法案 避免全国铁路工人罢工当地时间12月2日，美国总统拜登签署了一项避免全国铁路工人罢工的法案，以解决铁路工人劳资纠纷问题。据悉，众议院于当地时间11月30日通过这项法案，参议院于12月1日也投票通过，并提交给拜登。如果没有该法案，全美铁路工人最早可能在12月9日实施罢工，这将导致货物短缺、物价飙升和工厂停产等一系列问题。4、波兰同意欧盟对俄海运石油最高限价为每桶60美元据德国媒体当地时间12月2日报道，波兰已同意欧盟对俄海运石油最高限价为每桶60美元。最终决定将在官方公布之后生效。5、德国总理与企业代表讨论高通胀和高能源价格应对措施当地时间12月2日，德国联邦总理朔尔茨在总理府与德国多家大型企业的首席执行官就俄乌冲突对德国经济的影响交换了意见。会议重点讨论了减轻高通胀影响的措施，如提供通货膨胀补偿，企业可以向员工支付高达3000欧元的补贴，这笔款项可以免税，而员工的实际收入损失可以得到补偿。与会者还讨论了高能源价格的影响。6、寒冬来袭风力不足 欧洲电价和气价双双攀升寒冬来袭之际，欧洲风力发电却大幅下降，这推高了电价和天然气价格，也凸显出欧洲大陆的能源系统的脆弱性。当前，欧洲消费者和企业对飙升的能源账单格外敏感。能源交易员一直关注着天气状况，因为天气会极大地影响天然气的供需，也会导致价格的大起大落。本周以来，欧洲天然气价格接连大涨，周四一度涨逾13%，达到10月13日以来的最高水平。在经历了相对温和的11月之后，欧洲各地的气温本月正在下降。7、OPEC原油产量11月降至2879万桶/日 创近两年最大降幅OPEC原油产量在11月创下了自2020年以来的最大降幅，以满足此前OPEC+达成的最新减产协议。调查显示当月OPEC所有成员国合计减产幅度略超过100万桶/日，令总产量降至2879万桶。其中沙特减产47万桶/日至1044万桶/日，其他海湾产油国也跟进减产。OPCE+将在12月4日举行下一次例会，预计将维持现有产能不变。而此前美国总统拜登曾敦促OPEC增加原油供给量。公司新闻1、效仿特斯拉和宝马，大众汽车将在中国生产出口欧洲的电动汽车周五，大众汽车表示，旗下的西班牙子品牌Cupra，将在大众汽车位于安徽的一家合资工厂生产首款电动SUV车型Tavascan。大众此举是由于德国国内市场产能有限。普华永道预计，到2025年，中国制造的汽车在欧洲的销量可能高达80万辆，其中大部分是纯电动汽车。周五，大众汽车发布声明表示，旗下的西班牙子品牌Cupra，将在大众汽车位于安徽的一家合资工厂生产首款电动SUV车型Tavascan。2、人才战已是过去时$摩根大通、美银等据悉将大砍投行部门奖金在整个华尔街，对银行家奖金的悲观预期正在迅速应验，投行业务活动的萎缩令人才争夺战偃旗息鼓，企业在定薪方面重新站到上风。知情人士透露，摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团都在考虑将投资银行家的奖金池削减多达30%。一些公司计划对绩效差的员工完全不发奖金。消息人士称这些提议仍在讨论之中，未来几周可能会有所调整。3、辉瑞向欧洲投资24亿欧元扩产 为新冠产品营收下滑做准备当地时间周五，辉瑞宣布将投资12亿欧元扩大比利时皮尔斯地区的工厂产能。公司此前在周四刚宣布投入同等规模的资金扩产爱尔兰都柏林工厂。4、两个月毁了前三季度的好成绩 桥水基金年回报率折损大半对冲基金巨头桥水原本有望创下十余年来最佳年度业绩表现，结果第四季度成为其滑铁卢，前三季度取得的大部分回报被悉数回吐。据知情人士透露，Pure Alpha基金在截至11月25日的第四季度下跌13.2%，今年以来累计涨幅降至6%。前三季度该基金飙升22%，本有望超越2010年的27%创下十二年来最大年涨幅。这款基金产品是桥水基金Pure Alpha II的低杠杆版本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964995722,"gmtCreate":1670045891167,"gmtModify":1676538295257,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964995722","repostId":"1176155439","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176155439","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1670035708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176155439?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-03 10:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"G7 finally reached the price ceiling of Russian oil. Why is it $60?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176155439","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：该价格上限旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。在经历激烈的拉锯后，欧盟本周五终于同意将俄罗斯石油的价格上限设定为60美元/桶。这低于媒体此前","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: The price cap is designed to strike a delicate balance: that is, to limit Russian oil export revenue without reducing Russian shipments to global markets. After a fierce saw-tug, the European Union on Friday finally agreed to cap the price of Russian oil at $60/barrel. This is lower than the upper limit of $65-70/barrel previously exposed by the media.</p><p>There has long been disagreement within the EU over price caps. For the previous bill of 65-70 USD/barrel, Poland and other countries eager to control the domestic energy cost felt that it was too high and unlikely to be triggered (hopefully around 20 USD/barrel); Countries with huge oil shipping industries, such as Cyprus, think it is too low (hopefully more than $70/barrel).</p><p>According to media analysis, the ceiling price of $60/barrel aims to reach a delicate balance:<b>That is, while restricting Russia's oil export revenue, it will not reduce Russia's shipments to the global market.</b></p><p>According to Elizabeth Rosenberg, assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department, the price of $60/barrel is the result of combining historical data, which should at the same time be higher than Russia's marginal production cost.</p><p>In terms of data, the selling price of Russian Ural crude oil based on Brent crude oil in 2019 was between $50 and $70. According to Russian official data, the marginal production cost of domestic crude oil determined by the Russian government is 44 USD/barrel (the West believes that the actual data may be slightly higher).</p><p>Under the new mechanism, the price of $60/barrel will be adjusted. The new mechanism allows the price cap to be revised every two months. From mid-January 2023, the EU will assess and revise the price cap every two months,<b>To ensure that any reset price cap is at least 5% lower than the average market price.</b></p><p>At the same time, the EU will set a 45-day transition period before introducing a price cap. The transition period will apply to oil loaded by December 5, the date on which oil sanctions will begin to take effect, and that oil should be offloaded by January 19. Furthermore, there needs to be a 90-day transition period if there is any change in the oil price cap in the future.</p><p>The EU's price cap is consensus, paving the way for a G7 deal. After the relevant EU agreement is formally adopted, it still needs to be approved by the G7. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the $60 price was within the range agreed by the G7.</p><p>Most G7 countries will stop importing Russian crude oil by the end of this year. The European Union will impose a ban on other refined petroleum products originating in Russia in February next year, along with a cap on those commodities.</p><p>But the concrete practical effect of the price cap remains to be seen. James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics, said,<b>Given that $60/barrel is already close to the actual purchase price of major Russian oil purchasers such as India, the price ceiling will \"have a relatively small impact\".</b>Russia has already warned that it will not sell crude oil to any country that signs up to the price cap.</p><p>The U.S. government is now worried that if the price cap is too strict, it could cause global oil prices to spike sharply. Given the extreme inelasticity of global oil demand, even an imbalance between supply and demand of several hundred thousand barrels per day could cause oil prices to soar,<b>In the end, I am afraid it will be a backlash to Europe.</b>Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin even bluntly said that the West set a ceiling on Russian oil price \"absurd and ridiculous\".</p><p>For big buyers of Russian oil such as India and Turkey, the price ceiling seems to be non-binding. India's oil and gas minister has previously stated that he will continue to buy oil from Russia and will buy oil from anywhere.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>G7 finally reached the price ceiling of Russian oil. Why is it $60?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nG7 finally reached the price ceiling of Russian oil. Why is it $60?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-03 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: The price cap is designed to strike a delicate balance: that is, to limit Russian oil export revenue without reducing Russian shipments to global markets. After a fierce saw-tug, the European Union on Friday finally agreed to cap the price of Russian oil at $60/barrel. This is lower than the upper limit of $65-70/barrel previously exposed by the media.</p><p>There has long been disagreement within the EU over price caps. For the previous bill of 65-70 USD/barrel, Poland and other countries eager to control the domestic energy cost felt that it was too high and unlikely to be triggered (hopefully around 20 USD/barrel); Countries with huge oil shipping industries, such as Cyprus, think it is too low (hopefully more than $70/barrel).</p><p>According to media analysis, the ceiling price of $60/barrel aims to reach a delicate balance:<b>That is, while restricting Russia's oil export revenue, it will not reduce Russia's shipments to the global market.</b></p><p>According to Elizabeth Rosenberg, assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department, the price of $60/barrel is the result of combining historical data, which should at the same time be higher than Russia's marginal production cost.</p><p>In terms of data, the selling price of Russian Ural crude oil based on Brent crude oil in 2019 was between $50 and $70. According to Russian official data, the marginal production cost of domestic crude oil determined by the Russian government is 44 USD/barrel (the West believes that the actual data may be slightly higher).</p><p>Under the new mechanism, the price of $60/barrel will be adjusted. The new mechanism allows the price cap to be revised every two months. From mid-January 2023, the EU will assess and revise the price cap every two months,<b>To ensure that any reset price cap is at least 5% lower than the average market price.</b></p><p>At the same time, the EU will set a 45-day transition period before introducing a price cap. The transition period will apply to oil loaded by December 5, the date on which oil sanctions will begin to take effect, and that oil should be offloaded by January 19. Furthermore, there needs to be a 90-day transition period if there is any change in the oil price cap in the future.</p><p>The EU's price cap is consensus, paving the way for a G7 deal. After the relevant EU agreement is formally adopted, it still needs to be approved by the G7. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the $60 price was within the range agreed by the G7.</p><p>Most G7 countries will stop importing Russian crude oil by the end of this year. The European Union will impose a ban on other refined petroleum products originating in Russia in February next year, along with a cap on those commodities.</p><p>But the concrete practical effect of the price cap remains to be seen. James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics, said,<b>Given that $60/barrel is already close to the actual purchase price of major Russian oil purchasers such as India, the price ceiling will \"have a relatively small impact\".</b>Russia has already warned that it will not sell crude oil to any country that signs up to the price cap.</p><p>The U.S. government is now worried that if the price cap is too strict, it could cause global oil prices to spike sharply. Given the extreme inelasticity of global oil demand, even an imbalance between supply and demand of several hundred thousand barrels per day could cause oil prices to soar,<b>In the end, I am afraid it will be a backlash to Europe.</b>Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin even bluntly said that the West set a ceiling on Russian oil price \"absurd and ridiculous\".</p><p>For big buyers of Russian oil such as India and Turkey, the price ceiling seems to be non-binding. India's oil and gas minister has previously stated that he will continue to buy oil from Russia and will buy oil from anywhere.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676563\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50ab1228da008e61faa75a03abe0e560","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676563","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176155439","content_text":"摘要：该价格上限旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。在经历激烈的拉锯后，欧盟本周五终于同意将俄罗斯石油的价格上限设定为60美元/桶。这低于媒体此前曝出的65—70美元/桶上限水平。欧盟内部对于价格上限长期存在分歧。对于此前65—70美元/桶议案，波兰等急于控制国内能源成本的国家觉得过高，不太可能被触发（希望20美元/桶左右）；而塞浦路斯等拥有庞大石油海运业的国家则认为太低（希望70美元/桶以上）。媒体分析认为，60美元/桶的上限价格旨在达成一种微妙的平衡：即在限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的同时，不减少俄罗斯对全球市场的出货量。根据美国财政部助理部长Elizabeth Rosenberg的观点，60美元/桶的价格是综合历史数据得出的结果，该价格同时应该高于俄罗斯的边际生产成本。数据方面，基于布伦特原油的俄罗斯乌拉尔原油2019年的出售价格在50—70美元之间。而根据俄罗斯官方的数据，俄罗斯政府确定的本国原油边际生产成本为44美元/桶（西方认为实际数据可能略高）。新的机制下，60美元/桶的价格还会进行调整。新机制允许每两个月修改一次价格上限。从2023年1月中旬起，欧盟将每两个月对价格上限进行评估和修订，以确保任何重置后的价格上限，都比平均市场价格低至少5%。欧盟同时将设置45天的过渡期，之后再引入价格上限。过渡期将适用于在12月5日之前装载的石油，即石油制裁将开始生效的日期，并且这些石油应当在1月19日之前卸载。此外，如果未来石油价格上限发生任何变化，都需要有90天的过渡期。欧盟的价格上限达成共识，为七国集团（G7）的协议铺平道路。欧盟相关协议正式通过后，还需要得到G7的批准。知情人士透露，60美元的价格在G7同意的范围内。大多数G7国家将在今年年底前停止进口俄罗斯原油。欧盟将于明年2月对源自俄罗斯的其他精炼石油产品实施禁令，同时对这些商品设置上限。但价格上限的具体实际效果还有待观察。WTRG Economics能源经济学家 James Williams表示，鉴于60美元/桶已经接近印度等俄油采购大国实际购买价格，价格上限将“产生相对较小的影响”。俄罗斯方面已经警告，不会向签署价格上限的任何国家出售原油。美国政府目前担心，价格上限如果过于严格，可能导致全球油价大幅飙升。鉴于全球石油需求极度缺乏弹性，即使是每天几十万桶的供需失衡也可能导致油价飙升，最后结果，恐怕是对欧洲形成反噬。前财长姆努钦甚至直言，西方设定对俄石油价格上限“荒谬可笑”。而对于印度、土耳其等俄油大买家而言，价格上限似乎没有约束力。印度石油和天然气部长此前已经表态，将继续从俄罗斯购买石油，将从任何地方购买石油。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965324043,"gmtCreate":1669899320683,"gmtModify":1676538265872,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965324043","repostId":"1131592336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131592336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669888770,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131592336?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-12-01 17:59","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Global Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131592336","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Fierce storms are brewing. The era of cheap money is fast becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve began their most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Right now, many countries are heavily indebted and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released recently by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the total global debt was $290 trillion in the third quarter. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>Economic and financial market risks piled up as central banks continued their rate hike and borrowing costs continued to rise for households, businesses and governments.</p><p>From the government's perspective, emerging markets face greater debt risks than developed countries, especially those that borrow a lot of dollar bonds. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage payments are the heaviest burden on most families, so this is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>At worst,<b>Some components of the global financial system could collapse.</b>From the mass bankruptcy of Japanese companies in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debt turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries escaped the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been mounting, and a large portion of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to households already in debt.</b></p><p>Such a \"ticking time bomb\" no longer exists after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but it exists in other countries.</p><p>Such as Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the highest household indebtedness in the world, with a 180% household debt-to-income ratio. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund as some borrowers had begun cutting off payments.</p><p>Australia's household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgages in the second quarter of this year were in a vulnerable financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached six times or more.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). Debt repayments as a percentage of household income are already far above that figure in the Dutch, Swedish and Norwegian countries, and if central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this percentage will move beyond 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, said recently that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand would also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, the debt of households with mortgage loans accounting for more than 40% reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about RMB 9.8989 trillion) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters and maintaining a growth trend for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. The recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous benchmark (100%). Private debts are mainly household debts.</p><p><b>More businesses will be insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF, businesses (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments as the biggest borrowers in the cheap money era, but unlike governments, they can't solve the debt crisis by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has had the biggest impact on some so-called \"zombie companies\", which generally only make just enough money to pay off their debts. In some ways, roughly one in five publicly traded companies already meet this definition when interest rates are low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", while companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>Global defaults on junk bonds will nearly double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the $6.7 trillion high-rated U.S. corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. SMEs, which tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. They are likely to be forced to lay off staff as the Fed's rate hike peaks early next year. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment in the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve, stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that in the lifetime of these deals, Federal Funds rate would be closer to 5%.</b><b>Minutes from the November FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, released last week, showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden levers\" in the nonbank sector that could disrupt the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar has made dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnam and Indonesia real estate bond prices fell sharply; The default of Legoland in South Korea in October triggered a panic selling in the credit market, which also fueled fears of default of housing companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies do not typically face the same direct challenges as households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that does not mean they are invulnerable.</p><p>In Britain, for example, former Prime Minister Truss's massive tax cuts nearly collapsed the country's Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the British financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government will still face the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>The Italian public debt problem is almost the most troublesome of the advanced economies.</b>By the end of the first quarter of this year, Italy's government debt to GDP stood at 152.6%, second only to Greece's 189.3%, Eurostat previously released data showed. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>Governments alone will have to pay more than 7% of GDP in interest by 2030.</b></p><p>The U.S. may also face a political dilemma over its debt. In the face of \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way the Biden administration currently has is to raise the debt ceiling, and that requires Republican support. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, the US economy will be dealt a fatal blow when domestic bank interest rates soar, stock markets plunge and pension accounts shrink sharply.</p><p>By contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>IIF data released last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, matching the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or are at high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Debt Costs Soar! What does it mean?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-01 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Fierce storms are brewing. The era of cheap money is fast becoming a thing of the past since major central banks such as the Federal Reserve began their most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Right now, many countries are heavily indebted and borrowing costs are rising, which is painful.</p><p>According to a report released recently by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the total global debt was $290 trillion in the third quarter. Although it has dropped from the historical high at the beginning of the year,<b>But it's still more than a third more than a decade ago.</b></p><p>Economic and financial market risks piled up as central banks continued their rate hike and borrowing costs continued to rise for households, businesses and governments.</p><p>From the government's perspective, emerging markets face greater debt risks than developed countries, especially those that borrow a lot of dollar bonds. As for businesses, signs of a credit crunch are already showing in the global financial sector. For consumers, mortgage payments are the heaviest burden on most families, so this is also the most dangerous place.</p><p>At worst,<b>Some components of the global financial system could collapse.</b>From the mass bankruptcy of Japanese companies in the 1990s to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis in the following decades, there are many examples of debt turning into bad debts.</p><p><b>Families \"crushed\" by mortgage loans</b></p><p>Some countries escaped the collapse of housing and banking in the Great Recession, so domestic household debt has been mounting, and a large portion of it is floating-rate mortgages, which also means<b>Higher central bank interest rates are quickly transmitted to households already in debt.</b></p><p>Such a \"ticking time bomb\" no longer exists after American households experienced the subprime mortgage crisis, TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said recently, but it exists in other countries.</p><p>Such as Canada, Australia and South Korea.</p><p>Canada has one of the highest household indebtedness in the world, with a 180% household debt-to-income ratio. Recently, Toronto-based real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. suspended redemptions of its largest mortgage fund as some borrowers had begun cutting off payments.</p><p>Australia's household debt-to-income ratio now exceeds 200%. Recently, the country's financial regulator estimated that 22% of customers who took out mortgages in the second quarter of this year were in a vulnerable financial situation because their debt-to-income ratio reached six times or more.</p><p>In the UK, interest rates on most mortgages will be readjusted after two to three years, and debt repayments are expected to exceed 10% of all household income (not just mortgage borrowing). Debt repayments as a percentage of household income are already far above that figure in the Dutch, Swedish and Norwegian countries, and if central banks continue their rate hike as expected, this percentage will move beyond 15%.</p><p>In Asia, Jonathan Cornish, head of bank ratings for Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, said recently that mortgage lenders in countries such as South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand would also be squeezed.</p><p>In South Korea, the debt of households with mortgage loans accounting for more than 40% reached 1,870.6 trillion won (about RMB 9.8989 trillion) at the end of September, setting a new record for two consecutive quarters and maintaining a growth trend for 38 consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. The recent IMF report also shows that in the second quarter of this year, the ratio of South Korea's private debt to GDP was 173.6%, far exceeding the IMF's dangerous benchmark (100%). Private debts are mainly household debts.</p><p><b>More businesses will be insolvent as defaults soar</b></p><p>According to IIF, businesses (outside the financial industry) go hand in hand with governments as the biggest borrowers in the cheap money era, but unlike governments, they can't solve the debt crisis by printing money.</p><p>The soaring cost of debt this year has had the biggest impact on some so-called \"zombie companies\", which generally only make just enough money to pay off their debts. In some ways, roughly one in five publicly traded companies already meet this definition when interest rates are low.<b>When the cost of debt soars, more companies will become \"zombie companies\", while companies already listed may go bankrupt.</b></p><p>Moody's Analytics estimates that,<b>Global defaults on junk bonds will nearly double next year.</b>According to analysis by Barclays,<b>In the $6.7 trillion high-rated U.S. corporate bond market, there are signs that defaults may be the worst in the past 50 years.</b></p><p>Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist at Jefferies, said the worst is yet to come for U.S. SMEs, which tend to borrow from banks at floating rates. They are likely to be forced to lay off staff as the Fed's rate hike peaks early next year. She said:</p><p>I expect more cracks in the first quarter as these small businesses start to feel the pain of rate hike. In the low interest rate environment in the past few years, the private credit market has carried out many large-scale leveraged financing in recent years. However, with the continuous rate hike of the Federal Reserve, stocks and bonds have fallen, and the prices of high-risk assets have plummeted. The once \"goose that laid golden eggs\" has become a hot potato. Markowska said:</p><p><b>When the debt was underwritten, no one would have imagined that in the lifetime of these deals, Federal Funds rate would be closer to 5%.</b><b>Minutes from the November FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, released last week, showed that some policymakers pointed to \"hidden levers\" in the nonbank sector that could disrupt the functioning of large global markets.</b></p><p>Investors are more worried about Asia, where a stronger dollar has made dollar-denominated debt more expensive. Vietnam and Indonesia real estate bond prices fell sharply; The default of Legoland in South Korea in October triggered a panic selling in the credit market, which also fueled fears of default of housing companies.</p><p><b>Emerging markets on the brink of bankruptcy</b></p><p>For advanced economies, governments that issue bonds in their own currencies do not typically face the same direct challenges as households and businesses when interest rates rise, but that does not mean they are invulnerable.</p><p>In Britain, for example, former Prime Minister Truss's massive tax cuts nearly collapsed the country's Treasury Bond market. At present, Truss has stepped down and the British financial market has stabilized. However, as the pace of the Bank of England's rate hike is difficult to change in the short term, the new government will still face the challenge of doubling borrowing costs next year.</p><p><b>The Italian public debt problem is almost the most troublesome of the advanced economies.</b>By the end of the first quarter of this year, Italy's government debt to GDP stood at 152.6%, second only to Greece's 189.3%, Eurostat previously released data showed. According to Bloomberg Economics estimates,<b>Governments alone will have to pay more than 7% of GDP in interest by 2030.</b></p><p>The U.S. may also face a political dilemma over its debt. In the face of \"savagely growing\" debt, the only way the Biden administration currently has is to raise the debt ceiling, and that requires Republican support. Some analysts predict<b>If the two parties in the United States fail to reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.</b>By then, the US economy will be dealt a fatal blow when domestic bank interest rates soar, stock markets plunge and pension accounts shrink sharply.</p><p>By contrast, many emerging markets have been struggling with sovereign debt crises for a long time. Sri Lanka and Zambia both defaulted, and countries such as Egypt and Pakistan are also at risk of default.</p><p>IIF data released last Tuesday showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio of developing economies rose to 254% in the third quarter, matching the record high set in the first quarter of 2021. IMF data also shows that more than 60% of low-income countries are in debt distress or are at high risk of debt distress.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3676399","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131592336","content_text":"狂风暴雨正在酝酿。自美联储等主要央行开启几十年来最激进的加息周期以来，廉价资金时代正快速成为过去式。眼下，多国债台高筑，借贷成本节节攀升，令人痛苦不堪。国际金融协会（IIF）日前发布的报告显示，全球债务总额三季度为290万亿美元，虽然较年初的历史高位有所下降，但仍比十年前增加了三分之一以上。随着各国央行继续加息，家庭、企业和政府的借贷成本继续上升，经济和金融市场风险堆积如山。从政府层面来看，相较于发达国家，新兴市场面临的债务风险更大，尤其是那些大量借入美元债的国家。至于企业，信贷紧缩的迹象已经在全球金融领域显现出来。而对消费者而言，房贷支出是多数家庭最沉重的负担，因此这也是最危险的地方。最坏的情况是，全球金融体系中的某些组成部分可能会崩溃。从上世纪90年代日本企业大规模破产，到之后几十年的美国次贷危机和欧债危机，债务变成坏账的例子比比皆是。被房贷“压垮”的家庭有些国家在大衰退中躲过了房地产和银行业的崩溃，因此国内家庭债务一直在增加，并且有很大一部分是浮动利率抵押贷款，这也意味着央行更高的利率会迅速传导到已经负债累累的家庭身上。美国家庭经历过次贷危机后已经不存在这样的“定时炸弹”了，TS Lombard经济学家Dario Perkins最近表示，但其他国家存在这种情况。比如加拿大、澳大利亚和韩国。加拿大是世界上家庭负债最高的国家之一，家庭债务与收入比高达180%。最近，总部位于多伦多的房地产贷款机构Romspen Investment Corp.暂停了对其最大抵押贷款基金的赎回，原因是一些借款人已经开始断供。澳大利亚家庭负债与收入之比目前超过了200%，近期，该国金融监管机构估计，今年二季度办理抵押贷款的客户有22%财政状况比较脆弱，因为他们的债务收入比达到6倍或更高。在英国，大多数抵押贷款的利率将在两到三年后重新调整，债务偿还额有望超过所有家庭收入的10% (不仅仅是抵押贷款借款)。在荷兰、瑞典和挪威，债务偿还额占家庭收入比例已经远远高于这一数字，如果各国央行按照预期继续加息，这一比例将超15%迈进。亚洲方面，惠誉评级亚太区银行评级主管乔Jonathan Cornish近期表示，韩国、马来西亚和泰国等国家的房贷者也将受到挤压。在韩国，房贷占比超过40%的家庭负债在9月底高达1870.6万亿韩元(约合人民币9.8989万亿元)，连续两个季度刷新历史最高纪录，自2013年第二季度以来连续38个季度保持增势。IMF近期报告也显示，今年二季度，韩国民间负债与GDP的比率为173.6%，远远超过IMF的危险基准线(100%)。民间负债以家庭负债为主。违约飙升，更多企业将资不抵债根据IIF的数据，企业(金融行业以外)与政府齐头并进，都是廉价资金时代的最大借款人，但与政府不同的是，企业不能通过印钞来解决债务危机。今年债务成本飙升，对于一些所谓“僵尸公司”的冲击最大，这类公司一般只能赚到刚刚够偿还债务的钱。从某些方面来看，大约五分之一的上市公司在利率较低时就已经符合这一定义。当债务成本飙升，将有更多公司沦为“僵尸公司”，而已经在列的公司则可能会破产。穆迪分析公司估计，全球垃圾债明年的违约率将几乎翻一番。根据巴克莱银行的分析，在价值6.7万亿美元的美国高评级企业债市场，有迹象表明，违约情况可能是过去50年中最严重的。杰富瑞首席金融经济学家Aneta Markowska表示，对于倾向于以浮动利率从银行借款的美国中小企业而言，最糟糕的时刻尚未到来。随着明年年初美联储加息达到峰值，他们很可能被迫裁员。她表示：我预计第一季度会出现更多裂缝，因为这些小企业开始感受到加息的痛苦。在过去数年的低利率环境中，私人信贷市场近年来进行了许多大型杠杆融资，但随着美联储持续加息，股债齐跌，高风险资产价格暴跌，曾经“生金蛋的鹅”成了烫手山芋。Markowska表示：债务在被承销时，没有人会想到，在这些交易的有生之年，联邦基金利率会接近5%。上周公布的11月份美联储FOMC会议纪要显示，一些政策制定者指出，非银行部门的“隐性杠杆”可能破坏大型全球市场的功能。投资者对亚洲的担忧更甚，美元走强使得以美元计价的债务更加昂贵。越南和印尼地产债价格大幅下跌；韩国10月乐高乐园违约事件引发信贷市场恐慌性抛售，同时也加剧了人们对房企违约的担忧。新兴市场站在破产边缘对于发达经济体而言，以本币发债的政府通常不会在利率上升时面临向家庭和企业那样的直接挑战，但这并不意味着他们是无懈可击的。拿英国来说，前首相特拉斯的大规模减税计划差点搞崩本国国债市场。目前，特拉斯已经下台，英国金融市场企稳，但由于英国央行的加息步伐短期内难以改变，新政府明年仍面临借贷成本翻倍的挑战。意大利公共债务问题是发达经济体中几乎是最令人头疼的。欧盟统计局此前公布的数据显示，到今年第一季度末，意大利政府债务占GDP比例为152.6%，仅次于希腊的189.3%。令据彭博经济估计，到2030年，光是政府需要支付的利息就将超过GDP的7%。美国在债务问题上也可能面临政治难题。面对“野蛮生长”的债务，拜登政府目前唯一的办法就是提高债务上限，而这需要共和党人的支持。有分析人士预测，若美国两党无法就提高债务上限达成妥协，明年第三季度美国或陷入债务违约危机。届时，美国国内银行利率飙升、股市暴跌、养老金账户大幅缩水，美国经济将遭到致命打击。相比之下，许多新兴市场已经在主权债务危机里挣扎多时了。斯里兰卡和赞比亚双双违约，埃及和巴基斯坦等国家也面临违约风险。IIF上周二公布的数据显示，三季度发展中经济体的债务与GDP之比上升到254%，与2021年第一季度创下的纪录高位相当。IMF数据也显示，超过60%的低收入国家处于债务困境，或者面临债务困境高风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962497013,"gmtCreate":1669820694133,"gmtModify":1676538250201,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962497013","repostId":"2287792664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2287792664","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669820474,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2287792664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Supply or Demand? Fed trying to figure out what drives high inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2287792664","media":"智通财经","summary":"旧金山联储的分析显示，目前通胀更多是由需求驱动的，但其他研究表明很难区分通胀的驱动因素。根据美联储经济学家建立的新衡量标准，商品和服务的强劲需求可能正开始超过疫情和俄乌冲突造成的供应限制，成为推动美国","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Analysis from the San Francisco Fed shows that inflation is more demand-driven right now, but other studies suggest it is difficult to distinguish the drivers of inflation.</p><p>Strong demand for goods and services may be starting to exceed supply constraints caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a significant factor driving U.S. prices, according to new measures established by economists at the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On the face of it, that means inflation is more likely to persist, even as the devastation caused by the pandemic and war fades out of view, reinforcing the case for the Fed to tighten policy to combat inflation. But the new research also contains evidence that points in the other direction, illustrating how difficult it can be to sort out the impact of supply and demand on prices.</p><p>\"This is an old economic problem\",<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Chief economist Mark Zandi said, \"This is really important in terms of current monetary policy, because if you feel like it's more supply-side driven than demand-side driven, you might be more supportive of the view that the Fed should play it safe\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b83bc4b1578c580dcefe7f8653863ff\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In order to sort out the different drivers of inflation, Fed economists focused on the relationship between the price of individual goods and services and the amount of goods and services that consumers buy. In the category where prices and volumes are rising at the same time, inflation is classified as primarily demand-driven. In cases where prices rise and volumes fall, inflation is called supply-driven.</p><p>Typically, the demand-driven type is considered to be more durable than the supply-driven type. But new research suggests that this conclusion is actually not that clear-cut.</p><p><b>Continuous demand-driven</b></p><p>The upcoming October core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) of the Federal Reserve is expected to drop to 5%. It was 5.1% in September, a month in which demand-driven price pressures outpaced supply-driven annual figures for the first time since inflation began in the summer of 2021, according to the San Francisco Fed's breakdown using the price and volume methodology.</p><p>It is noteworthy that there are still a considerable scale of \"ambiguous\" categories of goods and services that cannot be fully classified into neither the barrel of supply nor the barrel of demand, accounting for about one-fifth of the total. That means demand still accounts for less than half of overall core inflation.</p><p>Another problem is that demand-driven inflation does not necessarily require a tougher central bank response in the form of higher interest rates. That depends on whether those effects subside quickly, another factor that economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston have been studying.</p><p>\"Sustained demand shocks require more 'headwinds' than short-lived ones,\" said Viacheslav Sheremirov, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.</p><p>Once inflation in a certain category of goods or services is determined to be demand-driven or supply-driven, Sheremirov's research attempts to further classify it as temporary or sustained. \"I actually found an important component of ongoing demand, which is not common compared to historical data. Typically, most of the demand comes from temporary sources\".</p><p><b>The impact of housing</b></p><p>Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows that housing plays an important role in the demand drive, in part because it makes up a huge portion of household monthly budgets. But research by the Boston Federal Reserve Bank found that it is not easy to classify housing as a persistent source of demand-driven inflation.</p><p>Instead, it sees other service categories, especially tourism-related services, such as airfare and hotel accommodation, as the most persistent drivers of demand-driven inflation.</p><p>This is in line with the rush to consume savings accumulated during lockdown when the services sector reopened. Though by June 2022, when the Boston Federal Reserve Bank's analysis stopped, that effect began to fade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca119353b9b8567426a980024dd0080\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zandi is doing a similar price and volume analysis, and its research shows that the impact of demand pressures peaked in spring and summer 2021, with the passage of the U.S. rescue plan and the rollout of vaccines driving spending, and supply shocks pushing inflation to 40-year highs after the economy reopened.</p><p>As these supply-side pressures now also begin to subside, inflation may become more demand-driven again, but that would coincide with a lower headline inflation rate: Forecasters expect inflation to fall below 3% by the end of next year.</p><p>Zandi said: \"If nothing changes, then in six or 12 months, inflation will be more on the demand side than on the supply side. But by then, inflation will be much lower and won't be a problem. It's a problem now, and what is a problem now is on the supply side\".</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Supply or Demand? Fed trying to figure out what drives high inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSupply or Demand? Fed trying to figure out what drives high inflation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-30 23:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Analysis from the San Francisco Fed shows that inflation is more demand-driven right now, but other studies suggest it is difficult to distinguish the drivers of inflation.</p><p>Strong demand for goods and services may be starting to exceed supply constraints caused by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a significant factor driving U.S. prices, according to new measures established by economists at the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On the face of it, that means inflation is more likely to persist, even as the devastation caused by the pandemic and war fades out of view, reinforcing the case for the Fed to tighten policy to combat inflation. But the new research also contains evidence that points in the other direction, illustrating how difficult it can be to sort out the impact of supply and demand on prices.</p><p>\"This is an old economic problem\",<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>Chief economist Mark Zandi said, \"This is really important in terms of current monetary policy, because if you feel like it's more supply-side driven than demand-side driven, you might be more supportive of the view that the Fed should play it safe\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b83bc4b1578c580dcefe7f8653863ff\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In order to sort out the different drivers of inflation, Fed economists focused on the relationship between the price of individual goods and services and the amount of goods and services that consumers buy. In the category where prices and volumes are rising at the same time, inflation is classified as primarily demand-driven. In cases where prices rise and volumes fall, inflation is called supply-driven.</p><p>Typically, the demand-driven type is considered to be more durable than the supply-driven type. But new research suggests that this conclusion is actually not that clear-cut.</p><p><b>Continuous demand-driven</b></p><p>The upcoming October core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) of the Federal Reserve is expected to drop to 5%. It was 5.1% in September, a month in which demand-driven price pressures outpaced supply-driven annual figures for the first time since inflation began in the summer of 2021, according to the San Francisco Fed's breakdown using the price and volume methodology.</p><p>It is noteworthy that there are still a considerable scale of \"ambiguous\" categories of goods and services that cannot be fully classified into neither the barrel of supply nor the barrel of demand, accounting for about one-fifth of the total. That means demand still accounts for less than half of overall core inflation.</p><p>Another problem is that demand-driven inflation does not necessarily require a tougher central bank response in the form of higher interest rates. That depends on whether those effects subside quickly, another factor that economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston have been studying.</p><p>\"Sustained demand shocks require more 'headwinds' than short-lived ones,\" said Viacheslav Sheremirov, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.</p><p>Once inflation in a certain category of goods or services is determined to be demand-driven or supply-driven, Sheremirov's research attempts to further classify it as temporary or sustained. \"I actually found an important component of ongoing demand, which is not common compared to historical data. Typically, most of the demand comes from temporary sources\".</p><p><b>The impact of housing</b></p><p>Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows that housing plays an important role in the demand drive, in part because it makes up a huge portion of household monthly budgets. But research by the Boston Federal Reserve Bank found that it is not easy to classify housing as a persistent source of demand-driven inflation.</p><p>Instead, it sees other service categories, especially tourism-related services, such as airfare and hotel accommodation, as the most persistent drivers of demand-driven inflation.</p><p>This is in line with the rush to consume savings accumulated during lockdown when the services sector reopened. Though by June 2022, when the Boston Federal Reserve Bank's analysis stopped, that effect began to fade.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ca119353b9b8567426a980024dd0080\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Zandi is doing a similar price and volume analysis, and its research shows that the impact of demand pressures peaked in spring and summer 2021, with the passage of the U.S. rescue plan and the rollout of vaccines driving spending, and supply shocks pushing inflation to 40-year highs after the economy reopened.</p><p>As these supply-side pressures now also begin to subside, inflation may become more demand-driven again, but that would coincide with a lower headline inflation rate: Forecasters expect inflation to fall below 3% by the end of next year.</p><p>Zandi said: \"If nothing changes, then in six or 12 months, inflation will be more on the demand side than on the supply side. But by then, inflation will be much lower and won't be a problem. It's a problem now, and what is a problem now is on the supply side\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840090.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/840090.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2287792664","content_text":"旧金山联储的分析显示，目前通胀更多是由需求驱动的，但其他研究表明很难区分通胀的驱动因素。根据美联储经济学家建立的新衡量标准，商品和服务的强劲需求可能正开始超过疫情和俄乌冲突造成的供应限制，成为推动美国物价的重要因素。从表面上看，这意味着通胀更有可能持续下去，即使疫情和战争造成的破坏逐渐淡出人们的视野，这也增强了美联储收紧政策以应对通胀的理由。但新的研究也包含了指向另一个方向的证据，说明了理清供需对价格的影响有多么困难。“这是一个古老的经济问题”，穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi表示，“就当前的货币政策而言，这真的很重要，因为如果你觉得它更多是由供给侧驱动的，而不是由需求侧驱动的，你可能会更支持美联储应该谨慎行事的观点”。为了梳理出通胀的不同驱动因素，美联储的经济学家们把重点放在了个别商品和服务价格与消费者购买这些商品和服务数量之间的关系上。在价格和数量同时上升的类别中，通胀被归类为主要由需求驱动的。在价格上升而数量下降的情况下，通货膨胀被称为供给驱动。通常情况下，需求驱动型被认为比供应驱动型更持久。但新的研究表明，这个结论实际上并没有那么明确。持续性需求驱动美联储即将公布的10月核心PCE物价指数(不包括食品和能源类)预计将降至5%。根据旧金山联储使用价格和数量方法的细分数据，9月份这一数字为5.1%，自2021年夏季通胀开始以来，该月需求驱动的价格压力首次超过了供应驱动的年度数字。值得注意的是，仍有相当大规模的“模糊”商品和服务类别，它们既不能完全归入供应桶，也不能完全归入需求桶，这类商品和服务约占总量的五分之一。这意味着需求在整体核心通胀中所占的比重仍不到一半。另一个问题是，需求驱动型通胀并不一定需要央行以提高利率的形式做出更强硬的回应。这取决于这些影响是否会迅速消退，这是波士顿联邦储备银行的经济学家一直在研究的另一个因素。波士顿联邦储备银行经济学家Viacheslav Sheremirov表示：“与短暂的需求冲击相比，持续的需求冲击更需要‘逆风而行’。”一旦某一类商品或服务的通胀被确定为需求驱动型或供给驱动型，Sheremirov的研究试图进一步将其划分为暂时性或持续性。“我实际上发现了一个重要的持续需求成分，与历史数据相比，这并不常见。通常情况下，大部分需求都来自暂时性来源”。住房的影响旧金山联邦储备银行的数据显示，住房在需求驱动方面扮演了重要角色，部分原因是它在家庭每月预算中占据了巨大的比重。但波士顿联邦储备银行的研究发现，要把住房归类为需求驱动型通胀的持续来源并不容易。相反，它认为其他服务类别尤其是与旅游相关的服务，如机票和酒店住宿是需求驱动型通胀最持久的推动力。这与服务行业重新开放时，人们急于消费封锁期间积累的储蓄相一致。尽管到2022年6月，波士顿联邦储备银行的分析停止时，这种影响开始消退。Zandi也在做类似的价格和数量分析，其研究表明，需求压力的影响在2021年春夏达到顶峰，美国救援计划的通过和疫苗的推出推动了支出，经济重新开放之后，供应冲击推动通胀升至40年来的高点。随着这些供应方面的压力现在也开始消退，通胀可能再次变得更受需求驱动，但这将与一个更低的整体通胀率相吻合：预测者预计到明年年底，通胀率将降至3%以下。Zandi表示：“如果没有任何变化，那么6个月或12个月后，通胀将更多是需求面而非供给面。但到那时，通胀率会低得多，不会成为问题。现在这是一个问题，而现在成为一个问题的原因在于供应方面”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"QID":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9928414849,"gmtCreate":1671360501182,"gmtModify":1676538526739,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928414849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982552450,"gmtCreate":1667218090170,"gmtModify":1676537879216,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982552450","repostId":"2279808891","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2279808891","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667201183,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2279808891?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 15:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will \"release doves\" this week, and U.S. stocks are expected to take advantage of the situation to continue their rebound","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279808891","media":"智通财经网","summary":"几个月以来，投资者一直在急切地等待美联储激进的加息政策何时能够转向温和。但现在，至少对于一些押注美联储长期维持鹰派政策的交易员来说，这一转向有可能来得太早了。智通财经APP了解到，MLIV  Puls","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Investors have been eagerly awaiting for months when the Fed's aggressive rate hike policy can turn dovish. But now, at least for some traders who are betting on the Fed's long-term hawkish policy, the pivot is likely to come too early.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that the latest survey by MLIV Pulse shows that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell releases any \"dovish\" signals at this week's press conference, he may make some investors panic instantly.</p><p><b>Markets ramp up bets on Fed slowing rate hike pace</b></p><p>Of the 250 respondents surveyed last week, nearly half said they had bought dollars ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on November 1-2, and about 78% expected the two-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield to rise. These bets have worked well amid the Fed's aggressive tightening policy, but if Powell recommends raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December or 25 basis points in early 2023, after which the Fed's rate hike cycle ends, these bettors may pay the price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9441ea1680c5afaec53f7de92fa753c3\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What will the 2-year U.S. bond yield peak before the end of the year? Respondents are professional investors and retail investors</b></p><p>The market widely expects the Fed to issue a 75 basis point rate hike on November 2 to combat the ongoing inflationary environment, which the market is largely outright pricing in. However, too aggressive tightening actions could push the U.S. into a recession, leading to the worst annual decline in U.S. Treasury Bond on record, while stocks threaten their biggest decline since 2008.</p><p>Therefore, the focus of the market this week is not the magnitude of the rate hike-rate hike's 75 basis points can be described as a \"sure deal\" event, but the remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on the outlook for monetary policy.</p><p>To be sure, the market's expectation of the Fed's dovish signal is heating up, which is also an important reason for the sharp rebound of the S&P 500 index last week. At present, the market's bet on the Fed's December rate hike of 50 basis points has exceeded 75 basis points.</p><p>CME group's FedWatch tool shows that the current market expects that the market's expectations for the peak range and peak time of the Fed's interest rate have cooled down. The peak range dropped from the previous 5%-5.25% to 4.75%-5%, and the peak time of interest rates was advanced from the previous May to March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655acb30a33143da4e8f57b4e3e33071\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Among respondents surveyed, many groups did not buy neither short-term Treasury Bond nor long-term Treasury Bond ahead of the Fed meeting. However, more than 60% of respondents believe that the Bloomberg dollar spot index will rise in a month.</p><p>This suggests a significant reaction could occur in the currency and fixed-income markets if there is a strong signal of a slowdown in rate hike.</p><p><b>If Powell unexpectedly \"releases doves\" this week, U.S. stocks are expected to continue to rebound</b></p><p>Alec Young, chief investment strategist from MAPsignals, said in an interview: \"These data really prove that it is possible for the Fed to pause.\" The market hopes so, and if we do get there, the market will rebound because there are still a lot of people who are skeptical of them. \"</p><p>Recent moves by Fed peers suggest that mild surprises are not impossible. Both the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia have recently raised their benchmark interest rates less than economists and traders consensus expectations. Investors also believe that the European Central Bank's policy pace in the future may be less aggressive.</p><p>Some traders have seen enough signs to try to soften the Fed's hawkish tone ahead of time. October's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>On the verge of its first monthly decline since May, despite disappointing results from some tech giants, the S&P 500 has rebounded from a staged low earlier this month (the S&P 500 hit 3491 on October 13) About 10%.</p><p>\"If the Fed signals that a 50 basis point rate hike is possible in December, the market will see a relief rebound,\" Nicole Webb, senior vice president and financial adviser at Wealth Enhancement Group, said in an interview.</p><p>come from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Matt Fleury of the equities business unit said: \"If Powell'puts doves' this week and doesn't show the same strong attitude as he did at the Jackson Hole meeting, there is little to stop this rally from a technical point of view-moving objects continue to remain in motion. But if Powell expresses support for maintaining hawkish monetary policy, this will be an excellent short opportunity.\"</p><p>Ellen Zentner Leadership<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Economists have said FOMC members such as Powell will keep all options open in December. While some data showed further economic weakness, inflation remained at historically high levels. Plagued by past lessons and blamed for acting too late to deal with price pressures, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been reluctant to hope that the market's inflation expectations will slow, so there is no reason to ease policy.</p><p><b>Credit market default expectations are rising, and the Fed has to adjust its policy?</b></p><p>Notably, 54% of respondents said the woes of credit markets and rising default rates are becoming a growing concern for investors as rising borrowing costs and the accompanying economic downturn erode corporate profits. Pressure on corporate debt outweighs concerns about tight liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Bond, though, after a year of sharp bond price declines, tight liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Bond market is close to the levels of the 2020 crisis, raising concerns about market functioning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6744bd9400b6f10daeba40e0321d86\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What are you most worried about? --Survey results show that most investors are worried about credit market defaults</b></p><p>The shelving of leveraged buyout financing, plummeting circulation and soaring yields have recently raised concerns about dysfunctional corporate bonds. Asian markets are suddenly back in the spotlight as more cracks emerge, and the prospect of a default looks very grim. Growing concerns about the credit market, long regarded as the canary of economic recession, will only increase investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will adjust its policy.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will \"release doves\" this week, and U.S. stocks are expected to take advantage of the situation to continue their rebound</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe market is betting that the Federal Reserve will \"release doves\" this week, and U.S. stocks are expected to take advantage of the situation to continue their rebound\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-31 15:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Investors have been eagerly awaiting for months when the Fed's aggressive rate hike policy can turn dovish. But now, at least for some traders who are betting on the Fed's long-term hawkish policy, the pivot is likely to come too early.</p><p>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that the latest survey by MLIV Pulse shows that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell releases any \"dovish\" signals at this week's press conference, he may make some investors panic instantly.</p><p><b>Markets ramp up bets on Fed slowing rate hike pace</b></p><p>Of the 250 respondents surveyed last week, nearly half said they had bought dollars ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on November 1-2, and about 78% expected the two-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield to rise. These bets have worked well amid the Fed's aggressive tightening policy, but if Powell recommends raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December or 25 basis points in early 2023, after which the Fed's rate hike cycle ends, these bettors may pay the price.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9441ea1680c5afaec53f7de92fa753c3\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What will the 2-year U.S. bond yield peak before the end of the year? Respondents are professional investors and retail investors</b></p><p>The market widely expects the Fed to issue a 75 basis point rate hike on November 2 to combat the ongoing inflationary environment, which the market is largely outright pricing in. However, too aggressive tightening actions could push the U.S. into a recession, leading to the worst annual decline in U.S. Treasury Bond on record, while stocks threaten their biggest decline since 2008.</p><p>Therefore, the focus of the market this week is not the magnitude of the rate hike-rate hike's 75 basis points can be described as a \"sure deal\" event, but the remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on the outlook for monetary policy.</p><p>To be sure, the market's expectation of the Fed's dovish signal is heating up, which is also an important reason for the sharp rebound of the S&P 500 index last week. At present, the market's bet on the Fed's December rate hike of 50 basis points has exceeded 75 basis points.</p><p>CME group's FedWatch tool shows that the current market expects that the market's expectations for the peak range and peak time of the Fed's interest rate have cooled down. The peak range dropped from the previous 5%-5.25% to 4.75%-5%, and the peak time of interest rates was advanced from the previous May to March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/655acb30a33143da4e8f57b4e3e33071\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Among respondents surveyed, many groups did not buy neither short-term Treasury Bond nor long-term Treasury Bond ahead of the Fed meeting. However, more than 60% of respondents believe that the Bloomberg dollar spot index will rise in a month.</p><p>This suggests a significant reaction could occur in the currency and fixed-income markets if there is a strong signal of a slowdown in rate hike.</p><p><b>If Powell unexpectedly \"releases doves\" this week, U.S. stocks are expected to continue to rebound</b></p><p>Alec Young, chief investment strategist from MAPsignals, said in an interview: \"These data really prove that it is possible for the Fed to pause.\" The market hopes so, and if we do get there, the market will rebound because there are still a lot of people who are skeptical of them. \"</p><p>Recent moves by Fed peers suggest that mild surprises are not impossible. Both the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia have recently raised their benchmark interest rates less than economists and traders consensus expectations. Investors also believe that the European Central Bank's policy pace in the future may be less aggressive.</p><p>Some traders have seen enough signs to try to soften the Fed's hawkish tone ahead of time. October's<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>On the verge of its first monthly decline since May, despite disappointing results from some tech giants, the S&P 500 has rebounded from a staged low earlier this month (the S&P 500 hit 3491 on October 13) About 10%.</p><p>\"If the Fed signals that a 50 basis point rate hike is possible in December, the market will see a relief rebound,\" Nicole Webb, senior vice president and financial adviser at Wealth Enhancement Group, said in an interview.</p><p>come from<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Matt Fleury of the equities business unit said: \"If Powell'puts doves' this week and doesn't show the same strong attitude as he did at the Jackson Hole meeting, there is little to stop this rally from a technical point of view-moving objects continue to remain in motion. But if Powell expresses support for maintaining hawkish monetary policy, this will be an excellent short opportunity.\"</p><p>Ellen Zentner Leadership<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Economists have said FOMC members such as Powell will keep all options open in December. While some data showed further economic weakness, inflation remained at historically high levels. Plagued by past lessons and blamed for acting too late to deal with price pressures, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been reluctant to hope that the market's inflation expectations will slow, so there is no reason to ease policy.</p><p><b>Credit market default expectations are rising, and the Fed has to adjust its policy?</b></p><p>Notably, 54% of respondents said the woes of credit markets and rising default rates are becoming a growing concern for investors as rising borrowing costs and the accompanying economic downturn erode corporate profits. Pressure on corporate debt outweighs concerns about tight liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Bond, though, after a year of sharp bond price declines, tight liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Bond market is close to the levels of the 2020 crisis, raising concerns about market functioning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6744bd9400b6f10daeba40e0321d86\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>What are you most worried about? --Survey results show that most investors are worried about credit market defaults</b></p><p>The shelving of leveraged buyout financing, plummeting circulation and soaring yields have recently raised concerns about dysfunctional corporate bonds. Asian markets are suddenly back in the spotlight as more cracks emerge, and the prospect of a default looks very grim. Growing concerns about the credit market, long regarded as the canary of economic recession, will only increase investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve will adjust its policy.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/819699.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/819699.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2279808891","content_text":"几个月以来，投资者一直在急切地等待美联储激进的加息政策何时能够转向温和。但现在，至少对于一些押注美联储长期维持鹰派政策的交易员来说，这一转向有可能来得太早了。智通财经APP了解到，MLIV  Pulse的最新调查显示，如果美联储主席鲍威尔在本周的新闻发布会上释放出任何“鸽派”信号，他都有可能会让部分投资者瞬间惊慌失措。市场加大力度押注美联储放缓加息步伐在上一周接受调查的250名受访者中，近一半比例群体表示，他们已在11月1日至2日的美联储会议前买入美元，约78%的人预计两年期美国国债收益率将上升。这些押注在美联储激进的紧缩政策中取得了良好的效果，但如果鲍威尔建议在12月将利率上调50个基点，或在2023年初将利率上调25个基点，之后结束美联储的加息周期，这些押注者或将付出代价。2年期美债收益率年底前的峰值将是多少? 受访者为专业投资者与散户市场普遍预计美联储将在11月2日加息75个基点，以对抗持续的通胀环境，这一点市场基本上彻底定价。然而，过于激进的紧缩行动可能将美国推入经济衰退，导致美国国债出现有记录以来最严重的年度跌幅，而股市有可能出现2008年以来的最大跌幅。因此，本周市场关注的重点不是加息幅度——加息75个基点可谓“板上钉钉”事件，而是美联储主席鲍威尔对于货币政策前景发表的言论。可以肯定的是，市场对美联储释放鸽派信号的预期不断升温，这也是上周标普500指数大幅反弹的重要原因。目前，市场对于美联储12月加息50个基点的押注力度已超过75个基点。芝商所FedWatch工具显示，当前市场预计，市场对于美联储利率峰值区间以及见顶时间的预期均有所降温。峰值区间由此前的5%-5.25%降至4.75%-5%，利率见顶的时间由此前的5月提前至3月。在接受调查的受访者中，许多群体在美联储会议前既没有购买短期国债，也没有购买长期国债。但有超过60%的受访者认为一个月后彭博美元现货指数会走高。这表明，如果出现加息放缓的强烈信号，货币和固定收益市场可能会发生重大反应。鲍威尔本周若意外“放鸽”，美股有望继续反弹来自MAPsignals的首席投资策略师Alec  Young在接受采访时表示:“这些数据确实证明，美联储有可能暂停行动。”市场希望如此，如果我们真的实现了，市场就会反弹，因为仍然有很多人对他们持怀疑态度。”美联储同行最近的举动表明，并非不可能出现温和的意外。加拿大央行和澳大利亚联储近期上调基准利率的幅度均低于经济学家和交易员的普遍预期。投资者也认为欧洲央行未来的政策步伐可能没有那么激进。一些交易员已经看到了足够多的迹象，试图提前软化美联储的鹰派论调。10月份的美元指数即将出现5月以来的首次月度下跌，尽管一些科技巨头的业绩令人失望，但标普500指数已从本月早些时候的阶段性低点(10月13日标普500指数触及3491)反弹约10%。Wealth Enhancement Group高级副总裁兼金融顾问Nicole  Webb在接受采访时表示:“如果美联储释放出在12月有可能加息50个基点的信号，市场将出现缓解性反弹。”来自高盛股票业务部门的Matt  Fleury表示：“如果鲍威尔本周‘放鸽’，并且没有表现出杰克逊霍尔会议上那样的强势态度，从技术面的角度来看，几乎没有什么可以阻止这一反弹——运动的物体继续保持运动状态。但如果鲍威尔表达出对于维持鹰派货币政策的支持态度，这将是一个绝佳的做空机会。”Ellen  Zentner领导的摩根士丹利经济学家曾表示，鲍威尔等FOMC成员将在12月保留所有的选择权。虽然一些数据显示经济进一步疲弱，但通胀仍处于历史高位。由于受到过去教训的困扰，又因应对价格压力的行动太迟而受到指责，美联储主席鲍威尔一直不愿寄希望于市场的通胀预期放缓，因此也就没有理由放松政策。信贷市场违约预期上行，美联储不得不调整政策?值得注意的是，有54%的受访者表示，随着借贷成本上升以及随之而来的经济低迷侵蚀企业利润，信贷市场的困境和违约率上升正成为投资者日益担心的问题。企业债务的压力超过了对美国国债流动性紧张的担忧，不过，在经历了一年的债券价格大幅下跌后，美国国债市场的流动性紧张已接近2020年危机的水平，引发了人们对市场运转的担忧。你最担心什么?——调查结果显示多数投资者担忧信贷市场违约杠杆收购融资的搁置、发行量暴跌和收益率飙升，最近引发了人们对企业债券功能失调的担忧。随着更多裂缝的出现，亚洲市场突然回到了人们的关注焦点，违约的前景看起来非常严峻。对于信贷市场——长期以来被视为预示经济衰退的金丝雀，日益增长的担忧，只会不断增加投资者对美联储调整政策的预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SPY":1,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915363395,"gmtCreate":1664960316517,"gmtModify":1676537536139,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915363395","repostId":"2273971138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273971138","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664952671,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273971138?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 14:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US stocks welcome a strong start in the fourth quarter. Is it really a bear to turn a bull?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273971138","media":"第一财经","summary":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？　　经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。　　统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？　　美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。","content":"<p><div>Can investors' expectations of the Fed's policy inflection point become a reality? After a difficult third quarter, U.S. stocks ushered in a strong rebound in October. The Dow is up nearly 1,600 points in two sessions, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 6%. The \"bad news\" of poor economic data performance began to be seen as \"good news\" for a possible shift in Fed policy, and market risk appetite quickly picked up. Statistics show that the fourth quarter is often the starting point of the end of the bear market in U.S. stocks. Will history repeat itself this time? The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will \"relent.\" The US ISM manufacturing index fell to a 28-month low of 50.9 in September, further closing in on the boom-bust line...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"dyvj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US stocks welcome a strong start in the fourth quarter. Is it really a bear to turn a bull?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS stocks welcome a strong start in the fourth quarter. Is it really a bear to turn a bull?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">第一财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-05 14:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Can investors' expectations of the Fed's policy inflection point become a reality? After a difficult third quarter, U.S. stocks ushered in a strong rebound in October. The Dow is up nearly 1,600 points in two sessions, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 6%. The \"bad news\" of poor economic data performance began to be seen as \"good news\" for a possible shift in Fed policy, and market risk appetite quickly picked up. Statistics show that the fourth quarter is often the starting point of the end of the bear market in U.S. stocks. Will history repeat itself this time? The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will \"relent.\" The US ISM manufacturing index fell to a 28-month low of 50.9 in September, further closing in on the boom-bust line...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html\">第一财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.yicai.com/news/101554087.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273971138","content_text":"投资者对美联储政策拐点的预期能否成为现实？经历了艰难的三季度之后，美股在10月迎来强劲反弹。道指两个交易日上涨近1600点，标普500指数上涨近6%。经济数据表现不佳的“坏消息”开始被视为美联储政策可能转向的“好消息”，市场风险偏好迅速回暖。统计显示，四季度往往是美股熊市结束的起点，这一次历史是否会再次重演？市场押注美联储将“松口”美国9月ISM制造业指数降至28个月低位50.9，进一步逼近荣枯线，工厂订单月率继续回落。与此同时，美国上月的职位空缺从之前的1120万降至1010万，这被认为随着经济放缓工作机会正在变少，炙手可热的劳动力市场可能面临降温。疲软的经济前景令外界开始削减美联储大幅加息的押注，受此影响，各期限美债收益率全线回落，基准10年期国债收益率降至3.583%，上周该项收益率一度突破4%，美元指数一度逼近110关口，较上周创下的20年高位回落下跌超3.5%。与此同时，周二澳大利亚联储意外仅加息25基点，以及上周英国央行入市干预，令政策放松预期持续发酵。德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）表示，虽然股市肯定已达到超卖状态，但“对央行可能很快转向更温和立场的猜测越来越多”也有助于提振市场情绪。根据芝商所CME利率观察工具FedWatch，预计年内剩余两次会议加息125基点的概率为60%，高于上周的47%，同时本轮加息周期终点有望在明年3月出现，利率终值预期回落至4.43%。RBC Capital Markets首席美国经济学家波切利（Tom Porcelli）表示：“投资者关注的是，在市场面临诸多压力的情况下，美联储是否会坚持所有这些关于掩盖通胀的言论。毫无疑问，美联储希望控制通胀。”他分析道：“更大的问题是，在通货膨胀恢复到他们满意的水平之前，其他因素是否会影响他们的计划？”历史数据也显示，10月开始的四季度往往是美股“转折点”。Stock Trader’s Almanac 的数据显示，二战后美股熊市中有超过70%在10月结束。此外，2022年也是美国中期选举年，今年选举将于11月8日举行。统计发现，中期选举年的10月表现尤为出色。同时，中期选举年的第四季度与大选年前第一和第二季度，是市场连续三个季度表现最好的季度。这期间，道琼斯工业指数平均涨幅为19.3%，标准普尔500指数涨幅为20.0%（自1949年以来），纳斯达克指数为29.3%（自1971年以来）。财富管理公司Stifel首席股票策略师班尼斯特（Barry Bannister）预计，标准普尔500指数正在触底，市场在今年第四季度至2023年初之间将出现积极的催化剂。反弹持续性有待观察虽然股指上涨带来了乐观情绪，但也有不少机构认为，消极的经济基本面可能压倒季节性趋势。Ameriprise Financial首席市场策略师萨林迪恩（Anthony Saglindene）表示，在历史上的某些时期，10月份可能会引发华尔街的恐慌，包括1987年和1929年的两场动荡。 “我认为，如果股市经历了非常困难的一年，季节性因素都应该予以折中，因为还有其他一些宏观因素在影响市场，你需要更清楚地了解那些推低股市的宏观因素。”他说。富国银行也发出警告称，随着对美国潜在衰退的警告不断增加，有关美联储转向可能性的传言再次出现，这表明投资者有可能“再次低估美联储在寻求解决通胀问题时的决心”。摩根士丹利首席股票策略师威尔逊（Mike Wilson）本周继续预警美股跌势将持续到年底，部分原因是全球主要经济体的美元供应减少，即使短期出现反弹，接下来股票、债券、大宗商品和货币的波动性可能会继续上升。威尔逊表示，问题在于，随着利率持续上升，美联储不断缩减其资产负债表，它可能会在世界某些地方，甚至在美国引发危机。这是因为更高的利率使公司和家庭借贷成本更高，从而拖累美国经济，而美元走强则使新兴经济体更难偿还以美元计价的债务。威尔逊认为，流动性问题已经开始浮出水面。“美元对风险市场的走向非常重要，这就是为什么我们如此密切地跟踪M2的增长， 美国、欧元区和日本等主要经济体的M2在2021达到峰值，此后下降了4万亿美元。跟踪这些经济体的货币供应变化率很重要，因为这往往与股市走势密切相关。截至目前，美联储并未释放有关货币政策力度调整的信号，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席布雷纳德在内的多位官员均在近期讲话中表示，不会冒险提前降息，因为担心通胀可能变得更加根深蒂固。威尔逊表示，无论如何，在美联储最终转向之前，股市可能会走低，不过对这一政策变化的预期可能足以引发股市大幅但短暂的反弹。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"QID":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835620707,"gmtCreate":1629713196509,"gmtModify":1676530108049,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835620707","repostId":"1197421899","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197421899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629700881,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197421899?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-23 14:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197421899","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积","content":"<p><i>Ricaz, the author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a brand-new front of currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers haven't noticed it is that the situation has not evolved to the point where all parties involved have blatantly manipulated monetary policy without restraint, and that day is not far away, perhaps early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, initially as a lawyer. During the Asian financial turmoil, he happened to be the legal counsel of the hedge fund Long-Term Asset Management Company, and participated in the promotion of the Fed-led rescue operation, which avoided major damage to the American financial system. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare adviser to the Pentagon.</p><p>But Mr Rickards is best known to investors as the author of financial bestselling books, with Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012, particularly widespread. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally made people dare not take it lightly. In his latest article, Rickards explains his views on the subject, which is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strength of the US dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, the US Treasury Department will probably weaken the US dollar, and the curtain of currency war will open.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is, since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then-US President Barack Obama began to weaken the dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury knew well that a weaker dollar would inevitably hurt growth prospects in Europe and Japan, but they clearly didn't care at all. Of course, this thinking is objectively justified. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the U.S. economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world will be immune to it.</p><p>In the wake of the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure a sustained recovery and avoid a new recession. It is Europe that is down on luck this time, and the United States and the rest of the world's economies have not suffered much.</p><p><b>Currency War Temporary Truce</b></p><p>Americans' policies have worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that roughly at the same time, the price of gold rushed to an all-time high and the exchange rate of the euro soared. Needless to say, the U.S. economy has received much-needed support.</p><p>It was only after that that the US began to unleash goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was reduced to $1.05 per euro. The judgment of Americans at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the decline of the euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and push the euro zone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar crossover has largely oscillated in a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, which is almost exactly the same as today four years later.</p><p>Here, the first thing we must understand is that the so-called currency war does not necessarily only involve the two or all parties going shirtless, causing the cross exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation to be extreme. Currency wars also have relatively quiet cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing their currencies relative to major trading partners-in other words, war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar as part of its own economic rescue plan in the near future, there will be a first wave of strength in the short term. Why is this?</p><p><b>A faltering recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the problem is, first and foremost, that the White House and the U.S. Treasury don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, U.S. GDP growth of 6.5 percent in the second quarter was slower than widely expected, but the real economy is even worse than the figures suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, whose reading was still 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% by June, while the real economic growth rate in the second quarter, as we all know, was 6.5%. This means that growth prospects have been significantly weakened in just three months in the second quarter. It also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also quite worrying. Imports, for example, are booming because Americans are loosing up government stimulus checks.</p><p>On the export side, however, the story is completely different, which shows that many other economies in the world are not doing as well as the United States. In the simplest and most straightforward terms, many of these other economies are in such bad shape that they simply have no appetite for eating much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. Private-sector revenue growth was essentially zero for up to eight months from October 2020. Just seeing this is terrible, and thinking that the government subsidies that support personal incomes are expiring one after another makes one more pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p>The countdown to the disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered. The order barring homeowners from evicting tenants is also dozens of days away, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans have expired. All in all, there is no possibility of a new plan to distribute cheques on a large scale in the short term.</p><p>Now that the tide of government cash distributions is in its final stages, while personal incomes are stagnating and exports are suffering a decline, what else can we expect to continue growing U.S. gross domestic product in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November of this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is really doing. In addition, by then, they will probably have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several months.</p><p>The trouble is that it is bound to be too late to find a way to stop the sharp downturn. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic side and the White House will be in utter panic, and by then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, before that, why did the dollar show strength?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. A crisis like this certainly cannot happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how dire the status quo has really become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>-Many governments are reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation shows how serious their problems have been.</p><p>-Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and big financial institutions expect that the interest rate trend in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that the financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy will have a high probability of recession in the long term.</p><p>— — Since March, the yield of the ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investors because of fear, and everyone expects that future economic growth will slow down, alleviate inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to predict exactly when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors are bound to desperately pursue safety, and the dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA global liquidity crisis is playing out and a currency war is coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 14:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>Ricaz, the author of Currency War, said that it is impossible for anyone to accurately predict when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57673e3350d8cf4f24fcf88b67a75296\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Unconsciously, a brand-new front of currency war has loomed on the horizon. The reason why most observers haven't noticed it is that the situation has not evolved to the point where all parties involved have blatantly manipulated monetary policy without restraint, and that day is not far away, perhaps early 2022 will come.</p><p>This conclusion comes from Jim Rickards, a famous investor and economist. Rickards is a figure with a kaleidoscope of experience-he worked hard on Wall Street for decades, initially as a lawyer. During the Asian financial turmoil, he happened to be the legal counsel of the hedge fund Long-Term Asset Management Company, and participated in the promotion of the Fed-led rescue operation, which avoided major damage to the American financial system. After entering the industry, he taught himself economics, became an expert in financial risk research, and served as a financial warfare adviser to the Pentagon.</p><p>But Mr Rickards is best known to investors as the author of financial bestselling books, with Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2012, particularly widespread. Such a currency war expert issued the aforementioned warning, which naturally made people dare not take it lightly. In his latest article, Rickards explains his views on the subject, which is the full text of his article.</p><p>Soon, there is a high probability that the world will experience a major round of market disruption, and as a result, the exchange rate of the dollar relative to other major currencies will rise sharply. In this case, the United States will suffer a double painful blow, that is, in addition to the pain caused by market destruction, the sharp strength of the US dollar will also have a serious impact on US exports and export-related employment opportunities. In this case, the US Treasury Department will probably weaken the US dollar, and the curtain of currency war will open.</p><p>Let's take a closer look at the macroeconomic picture on which this argument is based.</p><p>The truth is, since 2010, the world has entered an invisible low-intensity currency war-after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, in order to stimulate the economy, then-US President Barack Obama began to weaken the dollar.</p><p>Both the White House and the Treasury knew well that a weaker dollar would inevitably hurt growth prospects in Europe and Japan, but they clearly didn't care at all. Of course, this thinking is objectively justified. After all, the United States is the world's largest economy, and if the U.S. economy falls into recession, no other major economy in the world will be immune to it.</p><p>In the wake of the rare Great Recession of 2007-2009, weakening the dollar became a top priority to ensure a sustained recovery and avoid a new recession. It is Europe that is down on luck this time, and the United States and the rest of the world's economies have not suffered much.</p><p><b>Currency War Temporary Truce</b></p><p>Americans' policies have worked. By August 2011, the Fed's trade-weighted index showed that the dollar had fallen to an all-time low. It is entirely understandable that roughly at the same time, the price of gold rushed to an all-time high and the exchange rate of the euro soared. Needless to say, the U.S. economy has received much-needed support.</p><p>It was only after that that the US began to unleash goodwill towards Europe, allowing the dollar to strengthen moderately. By October 2016, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was reduced to $1.05 per euro. The judgment of Americans at that time was that their economy had reached enough strength to fully withstand the impact of the decline of the euro, and there was enough room for Europeans to operate and push the euro zone economy to rebound.</p><p>Since then, the euro-dollar crossover has largely oscillated in a narrow range. For example, on July 1, 2017, the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.18 US dollars per euro, which is almost exactly the same as today four years later.</p><p>Here, the first thing we must understand is that the so-called currency war does not necessarily only involve the two or all parties going shirtless, causing the cross exchange rate to fluctuate violently and the valuation to be extreme. Currency wars also have relatively quiet cycles, and such cycles can last for a long time.</p><p>Another point is that the most fundamental reason why currency wars break out is nothing more than excessive debt and insufficient economic growth. As long as this fundamental reason persists, there will always be one or another economy trying to stimulate economic growth by devaluing their currencies relative to major trading partners-in other words, war is still likely to break out at any time.</p><p>Interestingly, although the United States is likely to begin rapidly weakening the dollar as part of its own economic rescue plan in the near future, there will be a first wave of strength in the short term. Why is this?</p><p><b>A faltering recovery</b></p><p>The crux of the problem is, first and foremost, that the White House and the U.S. Treasury don't really understand the U.S. economy at present, or more specifically, they don't know how weak the U.S. economy is at present. As we all know, U.S. GDP growth of 6.5 percent in the second quarter was slower than widely expected, but the real economy is even worse than the figures suggest.</p><p>The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker, whose reading was still 13% in April, dropped to 7.5% by June, while the real economic growth rate in the second quarter, as we all know, was 6.5%. This means that growth prospects have been significantly weakened in just three months in the second quarter. It also shows that if the economic growth in April and May is relatively strong, the actual performance in June, the last month, is actually less than the quarterly average of 6.5%.</p><p>This obviously makes people more and more worried about the next third quarter.</p><p>At the same time, apart from the highly anticipated GDP figures, other economic data released at the same time are also quite worrying. Imports, for example, are booming because Americans are loosing up government stimulus checks.</p><p>On the export side, however, the story is completely different, which shows that many other economies in the world are not doing as well as the United States. In the simplest and most straightforward terms, many of these other economies are in such bad shape that they simply have no appetite for eating much of American imports.</p><p><b>The situation continues to deteriorate</b></p><p>Even more dramatically, Americans' personal income has declined at an annualized rate of 30%. Private-sector revenue growth was essentially zero for up to eight months from October 2020. Just seeing this is terrible, and thinking that the government subsidies that support personal incomes are expiring one after another makes one more pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p>The countdown to the disappearance of additional subsidies for unemployment benefits has entered. The order barring homeowners from evicting tenants is also dozens of days away, and it has been labeled unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans have expired. All in all, there is no possibility of a new plan to distribute cheques on a large scale in the short term.</p><p>Now that the tide of government cash distributions is in its final stages, while personal incomes are stagnating and exports are suffering a decline, what else can we expect to continue growing U.S. gross domestic product in the second half of 2021?</p><p>By November of this year, when the third-quarter GDP report comes out, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen will know just how bad the economy is really doing. In addition, by then, they will probably have learned the bad news of inflation and employment data for several months.</p><p>The trouble is that it is bound to be too late to find a way to stop the sharp downturn. Also, from a political perspective, there was less than a year left until the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic side and the White House will be in utter panic, and by then the only thing they can do is demand that the Treasury do whatever is necessary to weaken the dollar.</p><p>This is precisely the fundamental logic that the dollar will become weak in 2022. So, before that, why did the dollar show strength?</p><p><b>Global liquidity crisis</b></p><p>The answer is that a global liquidity crisis is actually already underway. A crisis like this certainly cannot happen overnight, and it usually takes at least a year or two to brew behind the scenes before the market and the public fully realize how dire the status quo has really become.</p><p>Here are some noteworthy warning signs of global financial stress:</p><p>-Many governments are reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasury Bond. Of course, this does not mean that the US dollar is disliked by these countries, but that the banking systems of these countries are in urgent need of US dollars. In exchange for US dollars, they have reluctantly sold US debt, and this last resort operation shows how serious their problems have been.</p><p>-Some specific euro futures curves have slightly reversed, forming the so-called spot premium. This shows that banks and big financial institutions expect that the interest rate trend in the euro zone will be higher in the short term and lower in the long term. The former indicates that the financial pressure will increase in the short term, while the latter indicates that the economy will have a high probability of recession in the long term.</p><p>— — Since March, the yield of the ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond has continued to decline, and it has fallen a lot. This shows that almost all traders are chasing higher-quality investors because of fear, and everyone expects that future economic growth will slow down, alleviate inflationary pressures and even recession.</p><p>Of course, it is impossible for anyone to predict exactly when the global liquidity crisis will always break out and how serious it will be. However, everyone must admit that all these trends have intensified since March, meaning that the pressure is building rapidly and the crisis is brewing rapidly, perhaps as early as October.</p><p>Needless to say, when this crisis really comes, global investors are bound to desperately pursue safety, and the dollar and gold will strengthen significantly by then.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddf6fcde93937ee1cea8212ac47e8628","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J77wFOvahw72twOv3356Rg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197421899","content_text":"《货币战争》作者里卡兹表示，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n\n\n不知不觉间，一条货币战争的全新战线已经隐隐出现在地平线上，多数观察家之所以尚未注意到，只不过因为局面还没有演变到参与各方已经毫无忌惮地公然操控货币政策的那个地步，而那一天却也为时不远了，也许2022年年初就会来到。\n这个结论来自著名投资人、经济学家里卡兹（Jim Rickards）。里卡兹是一位拥有万花筒般经历的人物——他在华尔街打拼数十年，最初是律师出身，在亚洲金融风暴期间恰好担任对冲基金长期资产管理公司的法律顾问，参与了推动联储主导的救援行动，使美国金融系统避免了重大损害，入行后，他又自学经济学，成为金融风险研究专家，并担任五角大楼金融战顾问。\n不过，里卡兹最为广大投资者所熟知的身份，还是财经畅销书籍作者，2012年出版的《货币战争》（Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis）尤其享有广泛影响。这样一位货币战争专家发出了前述的预警，自然让人不敢等闲视之。在最新发布的文章当中，里卡兹阐述了自己在这个问题上的看法，以下即他的文章全文。\n不久之后，这个世界大概率会经历一轮重大的市场破坏，其结果就是，美元相对于其他主要货币的汇率大幅度走高。在这种情况下，美国就将遭受双重痛苦的打击，即市场破坏带来的痛苦之外，美元急剧走强还会对美国出口，以及出口相关的就业机会构成严重冲击，在这种情况下，美国财政部就大概率会出手削弱美元了，而货币战争的大幕也将就此拉开。\n下面就来仔细分析一下这番论说所依据的宏观经济图景。\n事实就是，从2010年开始，这个世界就进入了一场隐形的低烈度货币战争当中——在2007年至2008年的全球金融危机之后，为了刺激经济，时任美国总统奥巴马开始了削弱美元的操作。\n白宫和财政部都清楚地知道，美元趋向疲软，必然会损害到欧洲和日本的经济增长前景，但是他们对此显然根本就不在乎。当然，这种想法客观上也自有其道理，毕竟美国是全球最大的经济体，如果美国经济陷入衰退，世界其他主要经济体也没有一家可以独善其身。\n在2007年至2009年罕见的大衰退之后，要确保美国经济持续复苏，避开新一轮的衰退，削弱美元就变成了重中之重的关键任务。这一次倒霉的是欧洲，美国和世界其他经济体并没有遭受太大的苦难。\n货币战争暂时休战\n美国人的政策果然奏效了。到了2011年8月，联储的贸易加权指数显示，美元汇率跌到了历史最低点。完全可以理解的是，大致就在同时，黄金价格冲上了历史最高点，欧元汇率也猛涨。至于美国经济则不必说，由此得到了急需的支撑。\n在那之后，美国才开始对欧洲释放出善意，允许美元适度走强。到了2016年10月，欧元对美元汇率降低到了1欧元兑换1.05美元。美国人当时的判断是，自己的经济已经达成了足够的强势，已经完全经得起欧元走低的冲击，有足够的空间让欧洲人去操作，推动欧元区经济反弹。\n从那之后，欧元对美元的交叉汇率基本上都是在窄幅振荡。比如，2017年7月1日，欧元对美元汇率为1欧元兑换1.18美元，几乎和四年后的今天几乎是完全一致。\n在这里，大家首先必须明白的是，所谓货币战争，不见得就只有参与双方或者各方赤膊上阵，使得交叉汇率剧烈波动，估值极端的这一种面目。货币战争也有相对风平浪静的周期，而且这样的周期还能够持续很长的时间。\n还有一点，货币战争之所以会爆发，最根本的原因不外乎债务过高，而经济增长不足，只要这种根本原因一直存在下去，总归会有这个或者那个经济体试图通过让自己的货币相对于主要贸易伙伴贬值来刺激经济增长——换言之，战争依然随时都有爆发的可能性。\n有趣的是，虽然说起来，美国很可能会在不久后着手迅速削弱美元，来作为自己的经济援救计划的一部分，但是在短期内，美元首先还会有一波坚挺的行情。这是为什么呢？\n摇摇欲坠的复苏\n问题的关键首先就在于，目前白宫和美国财政部其实并不真正了解美国经济，或者更加明确地说，他们并不知道美国经济当下疲软到了怎样的地步。众所周知，美国第二季度国内生产总值6.5%的增长速度是低于外界的广泛预期的，但是真实经济的情况，甚至要比数字所显示的更加糟糕。\n亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器，其读数4月间还是13%，到了6月就降至7.5%，而众所周知，第二季度的真实经济增速是6.5%。这也就意味着，在第二季度这短短的三个月时间当中，增长前景就遭到了大幅度的削弱。这同时还说明，如果4月和5月的经济增长相对较为强势的话，那么最后一个月份6月的实际表现其实还不及季度平均的6.5%。\n这显然让人不能不对接下来的第三季度越发忧心忡忡。\n与此同时，除了万众瞩目的国内生产总值数字之外，其他同时发布的经济数据也颇多让人担心的地方。比如，由于美国人都在放手使用政府派出的刺激支票，进口一片旺盛景象。\n可是在出口一侧，故事便完全不同了，这也正说明了世界其他许多经济体的表现，其实远不及美国。用最简单直白的话来说，这些其他经济体，许多处境都非常糟糕，因此他们根本没有胃口吃下多少美国进口商品。\n局面还在继续恶化\n更加具有戏剧性的是，美国人的个人收入年化下滑速度达到了30%。从2020年10月算起，长达八个月的时间之内，私营部门收入实质上是零增长。单单看到这些已经很可怕了，而要再想到，支撑着个人收入局面的政府补贴正在一项又一项地次第到期，就让人不能不对前景越发悲观。\n失业救济的额外补贴，其消失已经进入了倒计时。禁止房主驱逐租客的命令也剩不了几十天了，而且还被贴上了违宪的标签。与此同时，薪资保障计划（PPP）的贷款已经到期了。总而言之，短期之内，也看不到大规模派发支票的新计划出炉的可能性。\n现在，政府派发现金的大潮已经到了最后阶段，而与此同时，个人收入停滞不前，出口遭遇下滑，那么，在2021年下半年，美国国内生产总值想要继续增长，还有什么可以指望？\n到了今年11月，第三季度国内生产总值报告出炉时，拜登总统和耶伦财长就会知道经济表现到底有多糟糕了。此外，到那时，他们大概率还已经领教了连续几个月通货膨胀面和就业数据面的坏消息。\n麻烦在于，到那时候再想办法去阻止经济猛烈下滑的势头，也注定将是为时已晚。还有，从政治视角看，那时距离2022年中期选举，也只剩下了不到一年。民主党方面和白宫将彻底陷入恐慌，而到那时，他们唯一能做的就是要求财政部采取一切必要手段削弱美元。\n这正是美元将在2022年变得疲软的根本逻辑。那么，在此之前，美元为何会呈现出强势呢？\n全球流动性危机\n答案是，一场全球流动性危机其实已经在进行之中了。类似这样的危机当然不可能是一夜之间发生的，而通常至少要在幕后酝酿一两年的时间，才会让市场和大众充分意识到现状到底已经变得有多严峻。\n下面就是一些值得注意的全球金融压力预警信号：\n——许多国家的政府都在减持美国国债。这当然并不是意味着美元遭到了这些国家的嫌弃，而是意味着，这些国家的银行系统急需获得美元，他们为了换取美元，已经不惜忍痛卖出美债了，而这种不得已的操作正说明他们的问题已经严重到了怎样的地步。\n——一些特定的欧元期货曲线已经略微反转，形成了所谓现货溢价。这就说明，银行和大金融机构预计，欧元区的利率走势是，短期内利率走高，而长期内利率走低，前者说明短期内金融压力将增大，后者说明长期来看，经济大概率将出现衰退。\n——自从3月以来，十年期美国国债收益率水平持续下滑，已经下跌了不少。这就说明几乎全体交易者都在因为恐惧情绪而追逐品质更高的投资对象，而且大家预计，未来经济增长将会减速，让通货膨胀压力减轻，甚至可能发生衰退。\n当然，要准确预测到全球流动性危机何时总爆发，以及其程度到底有多严重，对谁而言都是不可能完成的任务。不过，谁都必须承认的是，前述种种趋势自3月以来都愈演愈烈，意味着压力正在迅速堆积，危机正在迅速酝酿，也许最早10月间就可能冒头。\n不必说，当这场危机真正到来时，全球投资者必然会拼命追求安全，而美元和黄金届时就将大幅度走强。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925207370,"gmtCreate":1672024526390,"gmtModify":1676538623600,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925207370","repostId":"1190601149","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969768840,"gmtCreate":1668525036981,"gmtModify":1676538070893,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969768840","repostId":"1132358384","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917982868,"gmtCreate":1665412098054,"gmtModify":1676537601914,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917982868","repostId":"1105112775","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9969964888,"gmtCreate":1668321092644,"gmtModify":1676538041336,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969964888","repostId":"1188896197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188896197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1668306780,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188896197?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-13 10:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bad news for markets: US Democrats lock in control of the Senate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188896197","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这意味着，在拜登任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。随着美国民主党锁定参议院控制权，市场的期待落空了。据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月12日，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This means that in the remaining two years of Biden's term, Democrats are able to approve judicial nominations, executive branch appointments, and set the legislative agenda even as Republicans control the House. As the U.S. Democratic Party locked in control of the Senate, the market's expectations were dashed.</p><p>According to CCTV news reports, on November 12th, local time, Democratic candidate for Nevada Senate Katherine Cortez Masto defeated her Republican rival Adam Laxalt with 48.7% of the votes and won the Nevada Senate election.</p><p>The day before, Democratic U.S. Senator mark kelly won * in Arizona, defeating Republican candidate black masters supported by former U.S. President Trump.</p><p>Up to now, the Democratic Party has won 50 seats in the Senate and gained control of the Senate.</p><p><b>For Biden, maintaining the Democratic advantage in the Senate is crucial. This means that in the remaining two years of his term, Democrats are able to approve judicial nominations, executive branch appointments, and set legislative agendas even as Republicans control the House.</b></p><p>As of now. Who will win the House of Representatives has not yet been announced, but the preliminary results lean towards the Republican Party. The Republican Party currently has 211 seats and the Democratic Party has 203 seats, requiring 218 seats to become a majority.<b>The analysis points out that political unfavorable factors make the chances of the Democratic Party winning the House of Representatives very slim.</b></p><p>If Republicans win control of the House, Republicans are expected to challenge Biden's policies, such as potentially using a showdown over the debt ceiling to force spending cuts.</p><p>Market expectations dashed</p><p>For this mid-term election in the United States, the market expects a \"comprehensive victory\" of the Republican Party.</p><p>The market expects the best case scenario for the Republican Party to gain control of both houses, which will prevent the Democratic Party from enacting more new bills in the next two years and reduce uncertainty.</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that for the market, what really matters may not be which party wins, but the checks and balances within the government.</p><p>Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, said:</p><p>It's a good thing that the American government is split. The government can't do anything, and there will be no uncertainty in the next two years. Businesses can operate when they understand the playing field, and if Republicans control Congress during a Democratic presidency, that will bring some certainty to American businesses. LPL Financial strategists Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder wrote this week:</p><p>The biggest policy impact is that if we had a mixed government, it would be harder to pass any legislation...... which would eliminate any significant risk of tax increases on households or businesses. Divided governments tend to be good for markets. The data shows that the S&P 500 has returned 17% annually under the split government since 1951, compared with the average return of 12%.</p><p>Splitting the government is not exactly a \"good thing\" either</p><p>However, the impact of the shift in the balance of political power on stock prices is far less likely than a recession triggered by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Ed Yardeni, strategist at Yardeni Research, noted that none of these political cycles matter if inflation doesn't slow significantly in the coming months.</p><p>On the other hand, if the aggressive tightening policy of the Federal Reserve does trigger the economic recession, then the divided government means that there will be no fiscal stimulus measures to stimulate economic growth. LPL Financial strategists wrote:</p><p>If a recession occurs, it may get worse because of the smaller fiscal response.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bad news for markets: US Democrats lock in control of the Senate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBad news for markets: US Democrats lock in control of the Senate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-13 10:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This means that in the remaining two years of Biden's term, Democrats are able to approve judicial nominations, executive branch appointments, and set the legislative agenda even as Republicans control the House. As the U.S. Democratic Party locked in control of the Senate, the market's expectations were dashed.</p><p>According to CCTV news reports, on November 12th, local time, Democratic candidate for Nevada Senate Katherine Cortez Masto defeated her Republican rival Adam Laxalt with 48.7% of the votes and won the Nevada Senate election.</p><p>The day before, Democratic U.S. Senator mark kelly won * in Arizona, defeating Republican candidate black masters supported by former U.S. President Trump.</p><p>Up to now, the Democratic Party has won 50 seats in the Senate and gained control of the Senate.</p><p><b>For Biden, maintaining the Democratic advantage in the Senate is crucial. This means that in the remaining two years of his term, Democrats are able to approve judicial nominations, executive branch appointments, and set legislative agendas even as Republicans control the House.</b></p><p>As of now. Who will win the House of Representatives has not yet been announced, but the preliminary results lean towards the Republican Party. The Republican Party currently has 211 seats and the Democratic Party has 203 seats, requiring 218 seats to become a majority.<b>The analysis points out that political unfavorable factors make the chances of the Democratic Party winning the House of Representatives very slim.</b></p><p>If Republicans win control of the House, Republicans are expected to challenge Biden's policies, such as potentially using a showdown over the debt ceiling to force spending cuts.</p><p>Market expectations dashed</p><p>For this mid-term election in the United States, the market expects a \"comprehensive victory\" of the Republican Party.</p><p>The market expects the best case scenario for the Republican Party to gain control of both houses, which will prevent the Democratic Party from enacting more new bills in the next two years and reduce uncertainty.</p><p>Wall Street News mentioned earlier that for the market, what really matters may not be which party wins, but the checks and balances within the government.</p><p>Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, said:</p><p>It's a good thing that the American government is split. The government can't do anything, and there will be no uncertainty in the next two years. Businesses can operate when they understand the playing field, and if Republicans control Congress during a Democratic presidency, that will bring some certainty to American businesses. LPL Financial strategists Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder wrote this week:</p><p>The biggest policy impact is that if we had a mixed government, it would be harder to pass any legislation...... which would eliminate any significant risk of tax increases on households or businesses. Divided governments tend to be good for markets. The data shows that the S&P 500 has returned 17% annually under the split government since 1951, compared with the average return of 12%.</p><p>Splitting the government is not exactly a \"good thing\" either</p><p>However, the impact of the shift in the balance of political power on stock prices is far less likely than a recession triggered by the Federal Reserve.</p><p>Ed Yardeni, strategist at Yardeni Research, noted that none of these political cycles matter if inflation doesn't slow significantly in the coming months.</p><p>On the other hand, if the aggressive tightening policy of the Federal Reserve does trigger the economic recession, then the divided government means that there will be no fiscal stimulus measures to stimulate economic growth. LPL Financial strategists wrote:</p><p>If a recession occurs, it may get worse because of the smaller fiscal response.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674816\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674816","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188896197","content_text":"这意味着，在拜登任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。随着美国民主党锁定参议院控制权，市场的期待落空了。据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月12日，美国内华达州国会参议员民主党候选人凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托以48.7%的得票率击败其共和党竞争对手亚当·拉克索尔特，赢得内华达州国会参议员选举。此前一天，美国民主党参议员马克·凯利在亚利桑那州赢得连任，击败美国前总统特朗普支持的共和党竞选者布莱克·马斯特斯。截至目前，民主党已经取得了国会参议院的50席，取得参议院控制权。对于拜登来说，保持民主党在参议院的优势至关重要。这意味着，在他任期剩下的两年里，民主党能够批准司法提名、行政部门任命，并制定立法议程，即使共和党控制了众议院。截至目前。众议院“花落谁家”仍未揭晓，但初步结果倾向于共和党。目前共和党拥有211个席位，民主党拥有203个席位，需要218个席位才能成为多数。分析指出，政治上的不利因素使民主党赢得众议院的机会非常渺茫。如果共和党赢得对众议院的控制，预计共和党将对拜登的政策发起挑战，比如可能利用对债务上限的摊牌来迫使削减支出。市场期待落空对于美国此次中期选举，市场期待一个“全面胜利”的共和党。市场期望最好的情况是共和党取得两院控制权，这样就能阻止民主党在未来两年内颁布更多的新法案，减少不确定性。华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提到，对于市场而言，真正重要的或许不是哪一个政党获胜，而是政府内部的相互制衡。Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示：美国政府分裂是件好事，政府什么事都做不成，未来两年也不会再有不确定性。当企业了解竞争环境时，它们就能运营，如果共和党人在民主党总统期间控制国会，那将给美国企业带来一些确定性。LPL Financial策略师Barry Gilbert and Jeffrey Buchbinder本周写道:最大的政策影响是，如果我们有一个混合政府，将更难通过任何立法......这将消除任何对家庭或企业增税的重大风险。分裂的政府往往利好市场。数据显示，自1951年以来，分裂政府下标普500指数的年回报率为17%，而平均回报率为12%。分裂政府也不完全是件“好事”不过，政治力量平衡的转变对股价的影响，远远小于美联储引发的衰退的可能性。Yardeni Research策略师Ed Yardeni指出，如果通胀在未来几个月没有明显放缓，那么这些政治周期都无关紧要。另外一方面，如果美联储激进的紧缩政策确实引发了经济衰退，那么分裂的政府意味着不会有财政刺激措施来刺激经济增长。LPL Financial策略师写道：如果发生了衰退，由于财政应对力度较小，衰退可能会越来越严重。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981125761,"gmtCreate":1666426133053,"gmtModify":1676537755754,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981125761","repostId":"1106604271","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106604271","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666409026,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106604271?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-22 11:23","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"South Korea's property market is crumbling! Will it set off another round of Asian financial crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106604271","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"韩国正面临一场“迫在眉睫的房地产衰退”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Du Yu</p><p>At a time when South Korea's financial market encounters the embarrassing situation of \"three kills\" of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange, South Korea's property market, which once benefited from COVID-19 pandemic's dividends, is crumbling.</p><p><b>Nomura's Asia team asserts that a looming housing recession will force the Bank of Korea, the first rate hike in Asia, to cut interest rates and shift to monetary easing earlier next year</b>, which is contrary to Wall Street's consensus expectations.</p><p>The Wall Street VIP member article \"Korean Housing Prices: Success and New Crown, Failure and New Crown\" mentioned that the Korean property market showed signs of shrinking, and national housing prices fell for nine consecutive months. In the first half of the year, apartment transactions fell by 50.6% compared with the same period last year.</p><p>Since August last year, the Bank of Korea's rate hike has been one of the important reasons for the cooling of the property market. The sluggish export, the \"countercurrent\" of population in big cities and the decline in purchasing power under high inflation have also led to a sharp drop in demand. This creates a difficult problem for the central bank to \"reduce inflation\" or \"maintain growth\".</p><p>Nomura Economic Researcher pessimistically predicts this time that the national housing price in South Korea will plummet by about 10% from the peak to the bottom, and the apartment price in Seoul, the price benchmark to measure the overall housing market, will plummet by 18%.</p><p>This will be greater than the cooling of South Korea's real estate market after the financial crisis of 2009-2014. A sharp cooling in the property market will hit private consumption, pushing South Korea's economy into a deeper recession while the global semiconductor industry is weak and exports are sluggish.</p><p>Although Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong maintained a hawkish tone and said on Monday that the terminal interest rate of this tightening cycle will be higher than 3.5%, which is equivalent to at least 50 basis points of room for rate hike, the Nomura team believes that,<b>There is a 65% chance of witnessing the Bank of Korea \"swiftly shift to loose monetary policy earlier than market expectations next year\" to respond to the sharp decline in the domestic property market by cutting interest rates sharply</b>：</p><p>\"Our view that South Korea will fall into a deep recession suggests that the Bank of Korea may shift from its current focus on price stability to economic growth and financial stability in early 2023. Our view is different from other analysts on Wall Street, that is, from the second quarter of 2023 Starting, the Bank of Korea will enter the monetary easing cycle ahead of schedule, cutting interest rates by a total of 150 basis points next year and further cutting interest rates to 1% in 2024.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76613e4e20300bf0261d3a446befa80c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore,<b>The team recommends continuing to short the Korean won/USD, and the Korean won exchange rate may fall to 1500 integer before the end of November this year</b>, approaching the lowest level during the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.</p><p>On Friday, October 21st, the Korean won fell below the 1,430 mark against the US dollar, continuing to set a new low since the beginning of 2009. It has fallen by 19% year-to-date, ranking among the worst-performing currencies in Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275baa202786228d9df5d28cdaf7d2ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura reports that COVID-19 pandemic-induced housing boom is coming to an end. In the case of declining housing affordability, rising financial costs have squeezed housing investment returns, laying the foundation for the downturn in the real estate market. In the next few years, South Korea's housing prices will fall sharply and maintain the decline of \"L-shaped recovery\" unchanged, exacerbating deflation concerns. Falling house prices may hit consumption hard through household cash flow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de840e7ae61f7edd99abf121013a0fb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In order to prevent the deflationary impact of falling property market asset prices from spreading to the real economy, the Bank of Korea may start cutting interest rates in May 2023, by 25 basis points each in May and July, then by 50 basis points in August, and again in the fourth quarter of next year. 50 basis points, bringing the policy rate below Nomura's expected neutral interest rate of 2%. The Bank of Korea may further reduce the policy rate to 1% by the end of 2024.</p><p>There are two other hypothetical scenarios with low probability of occurrence: First, South Korea excessively tightens monetary policy to fight inflation (probability of occurrence 25%), which will allow it to maintain the policy interest rate higher than Nomura's 3.25% until mid-2024. Terminal interest rate forecast, even if the Fed may start an easing cycle in September 2023. The second is to cut interest rates more aggressively (probability of occurrence 10%). The Bank of Korea will cut interest rates sharply from the end of 2023 or early 2024 to catch up with the Federal Reserve's easing pace, cutting interest rates by a total of 250 basis points to a policy rate of 0.75%.</p><p>Wall Street News once mentioned that last Wednesday, October 12, in order to defend the Korean won and stabilize inflation, the Bank of Korea restarted a sharp rate hike of 50 basis points, raising the benchmark interest rate to 3% for the first time since October 2012. Since August last year, a total rate hike of 250 basis points highlights the urgency of curbing capital flight and the determination of the Bank of Korea to combat inflation:</p><p>But like most central banks in rate hike, the Bank of Korea is facing a dilemma. If rate hike is not in place, rising prices will stimulate workers to demand higher wages, potentially triggering a wage-price spiral. If there is a sharp rate hike, higher interest rates may increase the pressure on households that have accumulated record debt and plunge the economy into recession. With the 50 basis point rate hike landing, concerns about the latter are rapidly heating up. In essence, South Korea is facing a situation of internal and external troubles: obvious signs of economic recession and high debt pressure are internal troubles, high commodity prices lead to rising imported inflationary pressures and the impact of overseas monetary policies are external troubles. That is to say, in the increasingly complex international situation,<b>South Korea is likely to be the starting point of the next round of Asian financial crisis</b>。</body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>South Korea's property market is crumbling! Will it set off another round of Asian financial crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSouth Korea's property market is crumbling! Will it set off another round of Asian financial crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-22 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Du Yu</p><p>At a time when South Korea's financial market encounters the embarrassing situation of \"three kills\" of stocks, bonds and foreign exchange, South Korea's property market, which once benefited from COVID-19 pandemic's dividends, is crumbling.</p><p><b>Nomura's Asia team asserts that a looming housing recession will force the Bank of Korea, the first rate hike in Asia, to cut interest rates and shift to monetary easing earlier next year</b>, which is contrary to Wall Street's consensus expectations.</p><p>The Wall Street VIP member article \"Korean Housing Prices: Success and New Crown, Failure and New Crown\" mentioned that the Korean property market showed signs of shrinking, and national housing prices fell for nine consecutive months. In the first half of the year, apartment transactions fell by 50.6% compared with the same period last year.</p><p>Since August last year, the Bank of Korea's rate hike has been one of the important reasons for the cooling of the property market. The sluggish export, the \"countercurrent\" of population in big cities and the decline in purchasing power under high inflation have also led to a sharp drop in demand. This creates a difficult problem for the central bank to \"reduce inflation\" or \"maintain growth\".</p><p>Nomura Economic Researcher pessimistically predicts this time that the national housing price in South Korea will plummet by about 10% from the peak to the bottom, and the apartment price in Seoul, the price benchmark to measure the overall housing market, will plummet by 18%.</p><p>This will be greater than the cooling of South Korea's real estate market after the financial crisis of 2009-2014. A sharp cooling in the property market will hit private consumption, pushing South Korea's economy into a deeper recession while the global semiconductor industry is weak and exports are sluggish.</p><p>Although Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong maintained a hawkish tone and said on Monday that the terminal interest rate of this tightening cycle will be higher than 3.5%, which is equivalent to at least 50 basis points of room for rate hike, the Nomura team believes that,<b>There is a 65% chance of witnessing the Bank of Korea \"swiftly shift to loose monetary policy earlier than market expectations next year\" to respond to the sharp decline in the domestic property market by cutting interest rates sharply</b>：</p><p>\"Our view that South Korea will fall into a deep recession suggests that the Bank of Korea may shift from its current focus on price stability to economic growth and financial stability in early 2023. Our view is different from other analysts on Wall Street, that is, from the second quarter of 2023 Starting, the Bank of Korea will enter the monetary easing cycle ahead of schedule, cutting interest rates by a total of 150 basis points next year and further cutting interest rates to 1% in 2024.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76613e4e20300bf0261d3a446befa80c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Therefore,<b>The team recommends continuing to short the Korean won/USD, and the Korean won exchange rate may fall to 1500 integer before the end of November this year</b>, approaching the lowest level during the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008-2009.</p><p>On Friday, October 21st, the Korean won fell below the 1,430 mark against the US dollar, continuing to set a new low since the beginning of 2009. It has fallen by 19% year-to-date, ranking among the worst-performing currencies in Asia.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/275baa202786228d9df5d28cdaf7d2ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"534\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nomura reports that COVID-19 pandemic-induced housing boom is coming to an end. In the case of declining housing affordability, rising financial costs have squeezed housing investment returns, laying the foundation for the downturn in the real estate market. In the next few years, South Korea's housing prices will fall sharply and maintain the decline of \"L-shaped recovery\" unchanged, exacerbating deflation concerns. Falling house prices may hit consumption hard through household cash flow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de840e7ae61f7edd99abf121013a0fb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In order to prevent the deflationary impact of falling property market asset prices from spreading to the real economy, the Bank of Korea may start cutting interest rates in May 2023, by 25 basis points each in May and July, then by 50 basis points in August, and again in the fourth quarter of next year. 50 basis points, bringing the policy rate below Nomura's expected neutral interest rate of 2%. The Bank of Korea may further reduce the policy rate to 1% by the end of 2024.</p><p>There are two other hypothetical scenarios with low probability of occurrence: First, South Korea excessively tightens monetary policy to fight inflation (probability of occurrence 25%), which will allow it to maintain the policy interest rate higher than Nomura's 3.25% until mid-2024. Terminal interest rate forecast, even if the Fed may start an easing cycle in September 2023. The second is to cut interest rates more aggressively (probability of occurrence 10%). The Bank of Korea will cut interest rates sharply from the end of 2023 or early 2024 to catch up with the Federal Reserve's easing pace, cutting interest rates by a total of 250 basis points to a policy rate of 0.75%.</p><p>Wall Street News once mentioned that last Wednesday, October 12, in order to defend the Korean won and stabilize inflation, the Bank of Korea restarted a sharp rate hike of 50 basis points, raising the benchmark interest rate to 3% for the first time since October 2012. Since August last year, a total rate hike of 250 basis points highlights the urgency of curbing capital flight and the determination of the Bank of Korea to combat inflation:</p><p>But like most central banks in rate hike, the Bank of Korea is facing a dilemma. If rate hike is not in place, rising prices will stimulate workers to demand higher wages, potentially triggering a wage-price spiral. If there is a sharp rate hike, higher interest rates may increase the pressure on households that have accumulated record debt and plunge the economy into recession. With the 50 basis point rate hike landing, concerns about the latter are rapidly heating up. In essence, South Korea is facing a situation of internal and external troubles: obvious signs of economic recession and high debt pressure are internal troubles, high commodity prices lead to rising imported inflationary pressures and the impact of overseas monetary policies are external troubles. That is to say, in the increasingly complex international situation,<b>South Korea is likely to be the starting point of the next round of Asian financial crisis</b>。</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672971\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b9efd260d7a725fb1717eb0e932afb","relate_stocks":{"EWY":"韩国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672971","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1106604271","content_text":"作者：杜玉在韩国金融市场遭遇股债汇“三杀”的尴尬局面之际，曾得益于新冠疫情红利而高歌猛进的韩国楼市正摇摇欲坠。野村亚洲团队断言，迫在眉睫的房地产市场衰退，将迫使在亚洲率先加息的韩国央行明年更早降息并转向货币宽松政策，而这有悖于华尔街的共识预期。华尔街见闻VIP会员文章《韩国房价：成也新冠，败也新冠》提到，韩国楼市出现萎缩迹象，全国房价连续九个月下跌，上半年公寓成交量较去年同期下降50.6%。韩国央行自去年8月起加息是造成楼市降温的重要原因之一，出口低迷、大城市人口“逆流”和高通胀下购买力的下滑也导致需求锐减。这给央行制造了“降通胀”还是“保增长”的难题。野村经济研究员本次悲观预测，韩国全国房价将从峰值到谷底骤降约10%，衡量整体住房市场状况的价格基准——首尔公寓价格将暴跌18%。这会比2009-2014年金融危机之后韩国房地产市场降温的幅度更大。楼市急剧降温将打击私人消费，在全球半导体行业疲软和出口不振的同时，推动韩国经济陷入更深的衰退。尽管韩国央行行长李昌镛维持鹰派论调，周一还称本轮紧缩周期的终端利率将高于3.5%，等于还有至少50个基点的加息空间，但野村团队认为，有65%的可能性见证韩国央行“明年比市场预期更早地迅速转向宽松货币政策”，通过大幅降息来应对国内楼市的急剧下滑：“我们对韩国将陷入深度衰退的看法表明，韩国央行可能会在2023年初从当前对价格稳定的关注，转向经济增长和金融稳定。我们的观点与华尔街其他分析师不同，即从2023年二季度开始，韩国央行会提前进去货币宽松周期，明年共将降息150个基点，2024年进一步降息至1%。”因此，该团队建议继续做空韩元/美元，今年11月底前韩元汇率或跌向1500整数位，逼近2008-2009年全球金融危机高峰时期的最低水平。10月21日周五，韩元兑美元失守1430关口，持续刷新2009年初以来最低，年初至今累跌19%，位列亚洲表现最差货币之一。野村报告称，新冠疫情引发的房地产繁荣即将结束。在住房负担能力下降的情况下，不断上升的金融成本挤压了住房投资回报，为房地产市场的低迷奠定了基础，未来几年韩国房价将大幅下跌，并维持“L型复苏”的颓势不变，加剧通缩担忧。房价下跌或通过家庭现金流来重创消费。为防止楼市资产价格下跌的通缩冲击蔓延到实体经济，韩国央行可能从2023年5月开始降息，5月和7月各降息25个基点，随后在8月降息50个基点，明年四季度再度降息50个基点，令政策利率低于野村预期的中性利率2%水平。韩国央行或在2024年底将政策利率进一步降至1%。另有两种发生概率不大的假设场景是：一是韩国为对抗通胀而过度紧缩货币政策（发生概率25%），这将令其到2024年中旬前维持政策利率高于3.25%的野村终端利率预测，即便美联储可能在2023年9月开始宽松周期。第二是更激进地降息（发生概率10%），韩国央行从2023底或2024年初开始大幅降息，追赶美联储的宽松步伐，共降息250个基点至政策利率为0.75%。华尔街见闻曾提到，10月12日上周三，为捍卫韩元、平抑通胀，韩国央行重启50个基点的大幅加息，将基准利率自2012年10月以来首次升至3%，自去年8月以来共加息250个基点，凸显了遏制资本外逃的紧迫性以及韩国央行打击通胀的决心：但与绝大多数加息的央行一样，韩国央行正面临两难境地。如果加息不到位，不断上涨的物价将刺激工人要求更高的工资，可能引发工资-物价螺旋上升。若大幅加息，更高的利率或增加已经积累了创纪录债务的家庭的压力，并使经济陷入衰退。随着50基点的加息幅度落地，对于后者的担忧正快速升温。本质上来看，韩国正面临着内忧外患的局面：经济主体衰退迹象明显以及高企的债务压力，是内忧，大宗商品价格高企导致输入型通胀压力上升以及海外货币政策的冲击是外患。这也就是说，在日益复杂的国际形势下，韩国极有可能成为下一轮亚洲金融危机的起点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913504336,"gmtCreate":1664005454125,"gmtModify":1676537378751,"author":{"id":"3576924513004067","authorId":"3576924513004067","name":"Fattkhong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103cabc985ecc134ed2de3f8a949d852","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576924513004067","idStr":"3576924513004067"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913504336","repostId":"1152251318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152251318","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664004912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152251318?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-24 15:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"perfect storm\" is staged: Wall Street can't stand it, and institutions are forced to lighten up their positions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152251318","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储激进加息引发连锁反应，跨资产波动率大幅飙升。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>In the past week, the frenzy of central banks' rate hike, the first shot of foreign exchange intervention and the new fiscal policy of the UK have caused huge waves in the global financial market. Almost all kinds of assets are hard to escape, and Wall Street is a little overwhelmed. Institutions want to lighten up their positions and leave the market.</p><p>Last week, U.S. stocks fell sharply again, with the S&P 500 index falling for five consecutive trading days, with a drop of 4.7%; The bond market and foreign exchange market also experienced violent fluctuations, and U.S. bond yields jumped wildly to historically high levels; The dollar also soared to a 20-year high, causing emerging market countries to face a debt crisis, and Japan had to intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 1998.</p><p>Just yesterday, the British government launched the strongest \"tax reduction\" scheme in history, and British British bonds plummeted, the fastest rate of decline in the past 40 years. At the same time, it also triggered a series of chain reactions, which collapsed silver and gold.</p><p>At a time when liquidity from stocks to bonds is very scarce,<b>With the arrival of tougher monetary policy, various forms of cross-asset volatility are inevitable.</b></p><p>Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory Advisors, said:</p><p>We're seeing a huge spike in cross-asset volatility, which will lead to an accelerated deleveraging or de-risking process across all asset classes. Cross-asset volatility soars, Wall Street may begin to be forced to lighten up positions and leave the market</p><p>Risk models commonly used by institutions to measure whether they can cope with monetary tightening policies. If greater volatility affects Wall Street institutions and elsewhere, the trading signals guiding professional investors on how to allocate funds will turn red, which in turn leads institutions to lighten their positions more and more market volatility.</p><p>Christian Hoffmann, investment manager at Thornburg Investment Management, pointed out that most model standard deviations have moved beyond usual. We haven't seen a real liquidity crisis yet, but the market is still very fragile.</p><p>At present, there is no obvious panic, but the potential danger is that a wave of selling will spread to other asset classes. Large asset management companies operate under a risk management framework under which,<b>Rising volatility often requires selling portfolio assets,</b>Referring to risk valuation models, this sell-off is called a VaR shock.</p><p>For Dunn, an analyst at investment consulting firm Alpha Theory, the collapse of British bonds and the pound on Friday was regarded as a cascading risk event, which led to the collapse of assets such as oil and silver. Britain's 10-year bond yields posted their highest single-day gain in history after tax cuts raised concerns about inflation and aggressive rate hike. The pound plunged 3.5% to its lowest level since 1985, the third largest drop in two decades. Dunn believes,<b>This action looks like a forced liquidation departure.</b></p><p>Pessimism Spreads All Assets Sell Off</p><p>The days of stable returns in the past decade will live up to their lives. Turmoil has become the main theme of the moment. Countries around the world are competing to increase their efforts to fight inflation at the expense of economic growth. Just this week, more than a dozen central banks tightened monetary policy, and some countries were forced to rate hike to protect their peg to the dollar, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.</p><p>Affected by the global rate hike, the \"anchor of asset pricing\" has suffered a sell-off across the board. The two-year U.S. bond yield has risen for 12 consecutive days. This is a continuous sell-off that has not happened since 1976. The ten-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high in more than ten years for five consecutive days. So far this year, U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks have fallen by far more than 20%.</p><p>As the market continues to fall, investors avoid almost all asset classes and turn to holding cash. Bank of America quoted data from EPFR Global in its latest research report as saying that as of the week of September 21, global equity funds had an outflow of US $7.8 billion. Bond funds had an outflow of US $6.9 billion, and gold had an outflow of US $400 million.<b>Cash inflows reached US $30.3 billion.</b></p><p><b>Market sentiment has reached its most pessimistic state since the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>It also changed from the initial fear of recession to how long the pain will last.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"perfect storm\" is staged: Wall Street can't stand it, and institutions are forced to lighten up their positions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"perfect storm\" is staged: Wall Street can't stand it, and institutions are forced to lighten up their positions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-24 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhao Ying</p><p>In the past week, the frenzy of central banks' rate hike, the first shot of foreign exchange intervention and the new fiscal policy of the UK have caused huge waves in the global financial market. Almost all kinds of assets are hard to escape, and Wall Street is a little overwhelmed. Institutions want to lighten up their positions and leave the market.</p><p>Last week, U.S. stocks fell sharply again, with the S&P 500 index falling for five consecutive trading days, with a drop of 4.7%; The bond market and foreign exchange market also experienced violent fluctuations, and U.S. bond yields jumped wildly to historically high levels; The dollar also soared to a 20-year high, causing emerging market countries to face a debt crisis, and Japan had to intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 1998.</p><p>Just yesterday, the British government launched the strongest \"tax reduction\" scheme in history, and British British bonds plummeted, the fastest rate of decline in the past 40 years. At the same time, it also triggered a series of chain reactions, which collapsed silver and gold.</p><p>At a time when liquidity from stocks to bonds is very scarce,<b>With the arrival of tougher monetary policy, various forms of cross-asset volatility are inevitable.</b></p><p>Benjamin Dunn, president of Alpha Theory Advisors, said:</p><p>We're seeing a huge spike in cross-asset volatility, which will lead to an accelerated deleveraging or de-risking process across all asset classes. Cross-asset volatility soars, Wall Street may begin to be forced to lighten up positions and leave the market</p><p>Risk models commonly used by institutions to measure whether they can cope with monetary tightening policies. If greater volatility affects Wall Street institutions and elsewhere, the trading signals guiding professional investors on how to allocate funds will turn red, which in turn leads institutions to lighten their positions more and more market volatility.</p><p>Christian Hoffmann, investment manager at Thornburg Investment Management, pointed out that most model standard deviations have moved beyond usual. We haven't seen a real liquidity crisis yet, but the market is still very fragile.</p><p>At present, there is no obvious panic, but the potential danger is that a wave of selling will spread to other asset classes. Large asset management companies operate under a risk management framework under which,<b>Rising volatility often requires selling portfolio assets,</b>Referring to risk valuation models, this sell-off is called a VaR shock.</p><p>For Dunn, an analyst at investment consulting firm Alpha Theory, the collapse of British bonds and the pound on Friday was regarded as a cascading risk event, which led to the collapse of assets such as oil and silver. Britain's 10-year bond yields posted their highest single-day gain in history after tax cuts raised concerns about inflation and aggressive rate hike. The pound plunged 3.5% to its lowest level since 1985, the third largest drop in two decades. Dunn believes,<b>This action looks like a forced liquidation departure.</b></p><p>Pessimism Spreads All Assets Sell Off</p><p>The days of stable returns in the past decade will live up to their lives. Turmoil has become the main theme of the moment. Countries around the world are competing to increase their efforts to fight inflation at the expense of economic growth. Just this week, more than a dozen central banks tightened monetary policy, and some countries were forced to rate hike to protect their peg to the dollar, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.</p><p>Affected by the global rate hike, the \"anchor of asset pricing\" has suffered a sell-off across the board. The two-year U.S. bond yield has risen for 12 consecutive days. This is a continuous sell-off that has not happened since 1976. The ten-year U.S. bond yield hit a new high in more than ten years for five consecutive days. So far this year, U.S. bonds and U.S. stocks have fallen by far more than 20%.</p><p>As the market continues to fall, investors avoid almost all asset classes and turn to holding cash. Bank of America quoted data from EPFR Global in its latest research report as saying that as of the week of September 21, global equity funds had an outflow of US $7.8 billion. Bond funds had an outflow of US $6.9 billion, and gold had an outflow of US $400 million.<b>Cash inflows reached US $30.3 billion.</b></p><p><b>Market sentiment has reached its most pessimistic state since the global financial crisis in 2008.</b>It also changed from the initial fear of recession to how long the pain will last.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671079\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ebf78f14a39342abc136612fa11a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671079","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1152251318","content_text":"作者：赵颖过去的一周，各国央行加息狂潮、外汇干预打响第一枪以及英国新的财政政策在全球金融市场掀起滔天巨浪，几乎各类资产都难以幸免，华尔街也有点顶不住了，机构们欲减仓离场。上周，美股再度大跌，标普500指数连续五个交易日下跌，跌幅达4.7%；债市和汇市也出现剧烈波动，美债收益率疯狂跃升至历史性的高水平；美元也飙升至20年来的新高，导致新兴市场国家面临面临债务危机，日本不得不出手，自1998年以来首次干预汇市。就在昨日，英国政府推出史上最强“减税”方案，英镑英债暴跌，下跌速度为过去40年最快，同时也引发一些列连锁反应，带崩了白银和黄金。在从股票到债券流动性都十分匮乏的当下，随着更加强硬的货币政策的到来，各种形式的跨资产波动在所难免。Alpha Theory Advisors总裁Benjamin Dunn表示：我们看到跨资产波动率正在大幅飙升，这将导致所有类别的资产类别加快去杠杆化或去风险化进程。跨资产波动率飙升 华尔街或将开始被迫减仓离场机构通常使用的风险模型来测算是否能够应对货币紧缩政策，如果更大的波动影响到华尔街机构和其他地方，指导专业投资者如何分配资金的交易信号就会亮起红灯，进而导致机构减仓更多和市场波动更大。Thornburg Investment Management投资经理Christian Hoffmann指出，大多数模型标准差变动都超出了平时，目前我们还没有看到真正的流动性危机，但市场仍然非常脆弱。目前，尚未出现明显的恐慌，但潜在的危险是，一波抛售浪潮会波及其他类别资产。大型资产管理公司是在风险管理框架下运作的，在这种框架下，波动率不断上升往往需要抛售投资组合资产，参照风险估值模型，这种抛售被称为VaR冲击。对投资咨询公司Alpha Theory分析师Dunn来说，周五英债和英镑崩盘被视为一种连锁风险事件，其导致了石油和白银等资产崩盘。英国10年国债券收益率创下历史最高单日涨幅，此前减税方案引发了对通胀和激进加息的担忧。而英镑大跌3.5%至1985年以来的最低水平，创二十年来第三大跌幅。Dunn认为，这一行动看上去像是被迫的清算离场。悲观情绪蔓延 所有资产都遭到抛售过去十年获取稳定回报的日子将不负存在，动荡成为当下的主旋律，全球各国都在竞相以经济增长为代价，加大对抗通胀的力度。就在本周，十多家央行收紧货币政策，一些国家被迫加息，以保护其盯住美元汇率，如阿拉伯联合酋长国和沙特阿拉伯。受全球掀起加息潮的影响，“大类资产定价之锚”遭遇全线抛售，两年期美债收益率已连续12天攀升，这是自1976年以来从未出现过的连续抛售，十年期美债收益率连续五日创十余年新高。今年迄今，美债和美股的跌幅已远远超过20%。伴随着市场持续下跌，投资者几乎避开所有资产类别，转向持有现金，美银在最新研报中引述EPFR Global的数据称，截至9月21日当周，全球股票基金资金流出78亿美元，债券基金资金流出69亿美元，黄金则流出4亿美元，现金流入则达303亿美元。市场情绪达到2008年全球金融危机以来最悲观的状态，也从一开始的对经济衰退的担忧转变成痛苦将持续多久。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}