Hi everyone. Today we’re going to be looking at a cybersecurity company: Cloudflare, Inc. (NYSE: NET) NET has been trading in a series of higher highs and higher lows since IPO. Following the 2021 high, NET has fallen back into its IPO support trendline (in purple). NET’s move higher from its IPO support trendline was led by a trend markup. However, the stock since broke below its trend (in dark green) and has since been supported by its secondary trendline (in light green). However, given that these are shorter-term trends, they can break provided we do not lose the “master” trend on NET (in purple). We can see that the key resistance now is the 116-122.13 area, which was strong resistance in 2022, and also a strong resistance in February this year after earnings. NET is currently basing
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TBI's Thoughts [15]: MARA Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA)... Miner Galore?
Hi everyone, here’s the free newsletter for the week! MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA) Since 2020, MARA has been forming a series of higher lows, although it has yet to form a higher high since peaking at 83.45 in Nov’21. Upside has also been limited due to the resistance trendline (in blue) from the peak. However, the monthly Stochastic is about to complete a bullish crossover, subject to this month’s candle (similar to AMD). The weekly Stochastic is heading into extreme overbought levels, while RSI is curling back to the upside. Since Dec’23, the range on MARA has gotten tighter and tighter. We have been seeing consolidation for over a year in this descending channel (in red), with lower highs and lower lows. However, we might be seeing a change in character here. We can see 2 bearish
TBI's Thoughts [12]: Cloudflare (NYSE: NET)... Primed?
TBI's Thoughts [12]: Cloudflare (NYSE: NET)... Primed?
TBI's Thoughts [11]: Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX)... Is the Alligator Ready to Pounce?
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be updating my TA on a footwear company that I’ve covered previously: Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) CROX has been in a long-term uptrend since 2008, with a series of higher highs and higher lows and a long-term support trendline (in purple). It has been consolidating in a pennant formation since 2021, including a failed breakout in Apr’23. However, in Mar’24, CROX finally broke out of consolidation. It is now retesting the breakout from above and coming back into the 104.62 level, which was a gap-up level that has previously acted as support. The thesis is simple - if 104.62 holds, then we can expect a move back to ATH next. However, if 104.62 fails, then we are headed back into 96.02 gap-up support and subsequently back to the daily POC which currently sits around 77.
TBI's Thoughts [11]: Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX)... Is the Alligator Ready to Pounce?
TBI's Thoughts [10]: Tiger Brokers (NASDAQ: TIGR)... Is The Tiger Awakening?
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be analysing a FinTech company: UP Fintech Holding Limited (NASDAQ: TIGR) TIGR has been basing for over 2 years between in a 3+ point range, with strong resistance at 5.80. When China announced a fresh round of quantitative easing measures in September, TIGR was a beneficiary of this news, and ripped above the 5.80 resistance that capped its upside for over 2 years. Since then, TIGR has been in a controlled selling phase back into prior resistance. The interesting thing is that most of the volume on it came at highs. This sell-off has been comparatively weak, and has not breached 5.80. If we look at more recent price action, TIGR actually found a short-term low at the 78.6% Fib retracement (not pictured here) at 5.87, taking the swing low of 3.39 and high of 14.48.
TBI's Thoughts [10]: Tiger Brokers (NASDAQ: TIGR)... Is The Tiger Awakening?
TBI's Thoughts [9]: AMD (NASDAQ: AMD)... Dawn of a Bull Market?
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be covering one of the most well-known AI and semiconductor companies in the world: Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) AMD has been in a long-term uptrend since 1974, with a series of higher highs and higher lows. In 2016, a steeper support trendline formed, with the move greatly accelerating to the upside. Based on the current monthly candle, we are set for a bullish Stochastic crossover for the first time since Nov’23 (subject to earnings on the 29th and the monthly candle close). The last 2 bullish crossovers have led to 100% returns (or higher). AMD has been consolidating below the red resistance trendline since March. It finally broke out of this trendline in September, and has spent the past 3 weeks retesting the breakout on gradually declining volume.
TBI's Thoughts [9]: AMD (NASDAQ: AMD)... Dawn of a Bull Market?
TBI's Thoughts [8]: Celsius (NASDAQ: CELH)... Setting Up?
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be discussing about a fitness and energy beverages company: Celsius Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CELH) CELH was previously listed on the OTC markets before IPO’ing in 2017 on the NASDAQ. The green support trendline turned into resistance in 2010 before being flipped back into support in 2020. It also has a long-term trendline in place since 2013. On the whole, the stock has been making higher highs and higher lows since 2013, which are signs of a healthy uptrend. If we focus on more recent price action, we can the largest ever volume on record coming in 2 weeks ago at the support trendline. Institutions are actively accumulating this even though it has been in a bear market for over a year. A bullish stochastic crossover took place the same week. This is a strong signal
TBI's Thoughts [8]: Celsius (NASDAQ: CELH)... Setting Up?
TBI's Thoughts [7]: Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE)... Up In a Flash?
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be covering a software company: Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) On the monthly chart, we can see that ADBE is clearly in a long-term bullish uptrend since its IPO in 1987 with higher highs and higher lows. The current RSI of a lower high and higher low is mimicking the shorter-term consolidation pattern on ADBE, which I’ll get to in a second. On the weekly chart, we can see the bullish pennant consolidation pattern that we saw on RSI with lower highs and higher lows. We’re nearing a bullish crossover event on the Stochastic that could lead to a reversal from current levels. On the daily chart, I note that ADBE does not have a tendency to show divergences on RSI. Something I noticed with time is that not all stocks have such salient reversal indicators. That being said, th
TBI's Thoughts [7]: Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE)... Up In a Flash?
TBI's Thoughts [6]: Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)... Is The Fear Overblown?
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be covering one of the Magnificent 7: Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) On the monthly chart, we can see that TSLA is clearly in a long-term bullish uptrend, continuously forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Since its IPO, it has experienced several trend markups (purple → blue → green). Since 2020, TSLA has been consolidating and compressing within a bullish pennant pattern. Despite all the bearish headlines and the massive selloff the stock endured in 2023, it has remained resilient and continued to form higher lows. That in itself is a result of continued institutional accumulation. Recently, TSLA attempted to break out of this pattern and push above the resistance trendline (in red). It succeeded briefly but was sold down into its short term support trendl
TBI's Thoughts [6]: Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)... Is The Fear Overblown?
TBI's Thoughts [5]: Alcoa (NYSE: AA)... Is Aluminum the New Craze?
Hi everyone. Today, I’m covering one of the largest producers of aluminum in the world: Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) The monthly chart shows AA with a series of equal highs around the 98-100 area, albeit with a series of long-term higher lows since 1972. This suggests long-term consolidation within a range that gradually gets tighter and tighter with time. The Stochastic made its first bullish crossover in several months following September’s large engulfing candle. Thus far, we have seen consolidation within last month’s range. We can also see a shorter-term bullish megaphone pattern (higher highs, lower lows) that found support at the newly-confirmed 1972 trendline. The weekly chart shows a breakout from the Mar’22 resistance trendline (in pink), and a support trendline dating back to Ju
TBI's Thoughts [5]: Alcoa (NYSE: AA)... Is Aluminum the New Craze?
TBI's Thoughts [4]: Boeing (NYSE: BA)... A Massive Opportunity?
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be looking at a beleaguered company: The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) BA’s chart is nothing short of phenomenal. It is retesting a 48-year (since 1976) support trendline. The company is facing a raft of issues, including machinist strikes (causing production of Boeing 737, 777 and 767 jets to be halted), production quality and safety issues, as well as mounting debt. If we zoom in on the weekly chart, we can see BA consolidating in a symmetrical triangle pattern with lower highs and higher lows. More recently, it has been moving in a “coiled spring”-type falling wedge pattern as we wait for the machinists to approve a new contract with Boeing. The strikes have proven costly to BA’s valuation as it is expected to cost the company about US$3b, referencing the 2008 strike
TBI's Thoughts [4]: Boeing (NYSE: BA)... A Massive Opportunity?
TBI's Thoughts [3]: ASTS... Rocket Ship?
Hi everyone! Here’s my first newsletter in a week, and it’s on a satellite designer: AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) ASTS peaked in early-2021 at 25.37, before it chopped in a 3-year long descending channel that cumulated in a breakout in May this year. Since then, ASTS has retested its 2021 ATHs from above, while RSI comes down from extreme overbought levels while the Stochastic oscillator comes back into extreme oversold levels. On the daily chart, ASTS appears to be consolidating in both an ascending triangle and a symmetrical triangle pattern. This obviously means one thing - that 25.37 will be key as to how ASTS moves in the short term. If ASTS loses 25.37, a retest of prior resistance at 21.72 comes into play. Conversely, if ASTS holds this level, then we’re likely to see a brea
TBI's Thoughts [3]: ASTS... Rocket Ship?
TBI's Thoughts [2]: Micron (NASDAQ: MU)... Inflexion Point?
Hi everyone, today I’ll be sharing my TA for one of the semiconductor names: Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) This is the first time I will be using logarithmic scales in my charts, so the scaling might look “scary”. That being said, it reduces significant chart skew. Notice how MU has marked up its trend several times in the past few decades, since its IPO in 1984. What we can see from the weekly chart is that MU has been trading in a long-term uptrend. We will now focus our attention on the 2011 marked up trend and more short-term trends. Just note there are multiple trends in play, dating back to the 2008 GFC. In short, MU is coming into the Jan’23 support trendline, while forming a bullish divergence at support. Significant volume came in at the lows, in what I deem to be a potenti
TBI's Thoughts [2]: Micron (NASDAQ: MU)... Inflexion Point?
TBI's Thoughts [1]: CVNA... Signalling a Pullback?
Hi everyone! I've decided to do a little rebranding here, so I've renamed the newsletter - it's now TBI's Thoughts! In the first issue of this newsletter, I'll be updating my TA on a formerly ridiculed company that was trading as low as $3 just a few years ago: Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) The weekly chart shows CVNA in a recovery pattern, with a rounding bottom pattern in the works. It has been trading in an ascending channel since 2023 with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Interestingly enough, CVNA also has the RSI triangle pattern that we previously saw on SPY before it broke down into channel support. Notice the higher lows on RSI (in green) as well as the 4-legged bearish divergence (in red). Based on what SPY and CVNA (in 2021) have done previously, this favours bears. On the d
TBI's Thoughts [1]: CVNA... Signalling a Pullback?
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ added more during overnight trading. If institutions want to accumulate semiconductors, then we should be following suit. As I've mentioned in my previous post on SMCI, when just a few of the semiconductor stocks come into support, it is often a sign that we're nearing a swing low for a move higher. For SOXL, notice how it has come into this resistance trendline multiple times. When you knock on a door many times in a short span of time, it is usually indicative of a soon-to-happen breakout of trend. Why am I targeting 55? Because at the minimum, it would form that head and shoulder pattern that is indicative of sideways consolidation. Will rate cuts help these companies? Considering their
Should you short or be bearish on SMCI at current levels? On preliminary analysis, I will say no. My previous newsletter on SMCI sounded a warning signal to bulls that we would see a move lower should we break down from the (smaller) bull pennant pattern and the rising support trendline. Sure enough, both broke and SMCI headed below 600 and eventually even 500. Now, if I look further out at longer term support trendlines, I note several things: Firstly, SMCI has retraced 78.6% of the move it has made since 2023. This is a level of last resort for SMCI as breaking and holding below 400 could spell death for the stock. Secondly, SMCI has come back to retest this longer timeframe timeline as shown on my weekly chart. Moreover, the daily chart shows SMCI attempting to form a bullish
$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$
$CAVA Group Inc.(CAVA)$ is trading at an almost ludicrous P/E ratio of over 600. Each CAVA store is valued at over 45 million - that's crazy! However, why does it continue to remain at overextended levels? Because it is the most overbought it has been in its history as a publicly traded company. In one of my previous posts, I mentioned that overbought stocks can remain overbought for long periods of time. CAVA is no exception to the norm. I will be doing a deeper dive into the stock in the distant future. However, do consider that it is now trading at the upper end of its ascending channel, and is not a stock I would like to chase. However, is it a stock that I will like to short? No, because it has not shown any longer term signs of to
My Watchlist [135]: CCL... Coiling for the Big Move?
Hi everyone. Today I’ll be updating my TA on a really exciting stock: Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) CCL has been trading in a bullish megaphone pattern with higher highs and lower lows… since 1997! It broke out of the 2017 resistance trendline (in red) in Jun’23, and has since traded in a series of higher highs and higher lows in the short-term. The weekly chart shows us the short-term bullish pattern that is taking place. Notice the ascending channel (in green) that has been playing out, as well as the ascending triangle coiling pattern with equal highs at 19.46 and higher lows. The Stochastic oscillator completed a bullish crossover with this week’s close, signalling a move higher in the coming weeks. Minimally, I’m expecting CCL to fill the 18.16-18.18 bearish gap and come back into
My Watchlist [135]: CCL... Coiling for the Big Move?
【Voting Post】A pullback is coming. So what? Does this mean people should sell their holdings or to continue holding? Ultimately depends on your time horizon. If your time horizon is 30-40 years, will a 20% drawdown from a potential recession affect your investment decision? How about a time horizon of < 10 years. Introducing "Tactical DCA". That would be the idea of automating your monthly investments into a broad-based index such as the $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ . A more concentrated index such as $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ is good in a bull market as gains are amplified and investors chase growth or potential future heavyweights, but picking something more diversified is better in the
$Carnival(CCL)$ I will be writing an article on this stock in the distant future. The chart reminds me of $Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$ before it broke out of multi-year resistance. I'm starting a position in the 15s with an eye on the 30s. I will be adding this over the next few months on any weakness as the accumulation patterns on it are too good to ignore. While tail risk events from transmittable diseases could derail short-term upside, the longer-term outlook should be clearer. On the weekly, we see a Stochastic crossover occurring, although the daily is running into overbought and could see sideways/chop in the short term while pushing higher on the weekly. In a market nearing seasonal we
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