TBI
TBI
https://thetbi.substack.com/
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02-19

My Watchlist [55]: SPY... to 445 soon!

Hi everyone! Today, we’ll look at an ETF that everybody knows: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA: SPY) Just a quick overview of where we are right now - we were trading in a large descending channel (blue trendlines), that we broke out of recently. Well… I’m pretty sure you know what comes next. Most times, stocks come back to test their breakouts. An ETF, which is a basket of stocks, is no exception to this. Notice how SPY is forming a three-legged bearish divergence with an overall decrease in volume over time. This is indicative of (gradual exhaustion) and an imminent trend change for the short term. What’s also interesting is that SPY failed to make a higher high during Friday’s session. This is indicative of short-term exhaustion and downside. A channel could most likely see a bounce a
My Watchlist [55]: SPY... to 445 soon!
avatarTBI
2023-12-17

My Watchlist [27]: 17/12/23

Hi everyone, today I’ll look at one of the pandemic darlings: Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZM) A look at the weekly chart shows that ZM is trading in a potential falling wedge reversal pattern, having declined from the pandemic highs of $500+. 2 weeks ago, the stock broke out of this pattern, and has spent the past week consolidating above this wedge, with substantial volume coming in above the breakout as it backtested the upper resistance trendline from above (resistance-to-support flip). More importantly, I note that bullish divergence that has been forming, which suggests that a reversal has been brewing for several months. I have nothing much to add for this setup. Even though the effects of the pandemic have largely subsided, there is still a place for ZM in the teleconfe
My Watchlist [27]: 17/12/23
avatarTBI
02-16

My Watchlist [50]: SNAP (dtd 16/2/24)

Hi everyone! Let’s analyse a retail darling: Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP) SNAP was in the process of filling the 2022 ER gap between 14.57-21.71. A strong ER and guidance would have led to a significant spike up. However, reported figures fell short of estimates, and it dumped post-ER. Interestingly enough, it invalidated the bullish descending channel it was trading in and broke down. However, it has since found support at the green ascending trendline, forming a potential higher low and hidden bullish divergence in the process. It has also retraced between 61.8% and 78.6% of the move up from 8.28 lows. Here’s a closer look at the daily chart. Note the small candle spread yesterday but higher than normal volume. It is indicative of accumulation at current levels. You can also see the failed bre
My Watchlist [50]: SNAP (dtd 16/2/24)
avatarTBI
08-27
$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$  sold off into trendline support. I would be apprehensive about shorting off this level after it filled the 95 gap. Yesterday's daily candle closed with the largest volume in years, and we are retesting a prior resistance level from above, suggesting a potential S/R flip is taking place.  I'm expecting some volatility ahead as the stock consolidates around this level, but ultimately think that it will resume its uptrend in the coming weeks.  Am positioned for the reversion back to the upside, considering the weight of this selloff.$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ 
avatarTBI
02-16

My Watchlist [51]: DAL (dtd 16/2/24)

Hi everyone! Today I’ll be covering an American airline: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL) DAL has been forming a series of higher lows and higher highs. However, recently, it has been basing in a consolidation pattern that has seen lower highs (bounded by the red resistance trendline) and higher lows (bounded by the green support trendline). More recently, the stock has broken out of consolidation: The “breakout and backtest” pattern was observed, with a smaller symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern playing out with lower highs and higher lows. RSI has been following as well with lower highs and higher lows. A thrust above the consolidation pattern will see the gaps at 40.76-41.48 and 46.79-47.33 filled, before eventually pushing towards the 51.82 high. Given that we’re entering a we
My Watchlist [51]: DAL (dtd 16/2/24)
avatarTBI
05-23

My Watchlist [102]: AAP... A Generational Setup?

Hi everyone. Today I’ll be covering an automotive aftermarket parts provider for the first time: Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) AAP’s chart is extremely interesting. It has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, it retested and successfully defended its 23-year old support trendline. The main pattern on AAP is that of a bullish megaphone pattern, with a series of higher highs but lower lows. It has a multitude of gaps to the upside, being one of the worst performers in 2022 and 2023. It is imperative for AAP to defend its bullish megaphone support trendline (in blue) and the 23-year support trendline for further upside. On the weekly chart, there was confirmation of a move higher given by the bullish divergence that formed. On the daily chart, AAP is trading
My Watchlist [102]: AAP... A Generational Setup?
avatarTBI
2023-03-12

Technical Analysis of AAPL(March): Interesting Times Ahead

Hi everyone! I did some thorough charting for Apple (AAPL) the past few days, and I’m now ready to share my TA with you guys. Apple is a company that is virtually known by everybody, regardless of how old you are. Bears have been trying to short Apple as it is one of the last “giants” that is still holding strong. That being said, I think shorting it several months out is going to pay off in due course. Firstly, let’s take a look at AAPL’s daily chart: On the daily chart, you can see that the stock is trading in a wide descending channel (upper descending trendline, lower descending trendline). If you look closely, you can also see that the stock is trading in a secondary falling wedge pattern (the white diagonal line in the middle and the lower descending trendline). The slope of the R
Technical Analysis of AAPL(March): Interesting Times Ahead
avatarTBI
02-16

My Watchlist [52]: W (dtd 16/2/24)

Hi everyone! Today we’ll look at a stock that I’ve covered previously: Wayfair Inc. (NYSE: W) *This thesis differs from my previous newsletters on W. Consider this my most updated outlook on W for the coming months. The weekly chart of W shows a consolidation symmetrical triangle pattern with lower highs and higher lows. This is more pronounced and less speculative than the inverse head and shoulder pattern that I had looked at a few weeks ago. A small hidden bullish divergence is forming, which is indicative of an impulsive move higher. RSI is largely following the pattern as well with lower highs and higher lows. Note that volume is decreasing but buyers are steadily accumulating on the way down. On the daily chart, the hidden bullish divergence is a lot more pronounced. Notice the lopsi
My Watchlist [52]: W (dtd 16/2/24)
avatarTBI
2023-12-16

My Watchlist [25]: 16/12/23

Hi everyone! Today, we’ll look at one of Warren Buffett’s favourite stocks: Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) On the weekly chart, we can see that the stock is forming higher highs and higher lows. The higher lows are marked by the green trendline on the chart. The stock is currently trading in a bull flag pattern. It has been consolidating at the 55.51 level, which has acted as support on previous occasions. Notably, Warren Buffett has been buying around 55-56, which is a sign that “Big Money” is actively accumulating this name. Note that there is also a hidden bullish divergence forming with RSI forming lower lows, while the stock continues to make higher lows and seeing a retest of the ascending green trendline. Interestingly enough, the daily chart shows a small regular bullish divergen
My Watchlist [25]: 16/12/23
avatarTBI
03-29

My Watchlist [80]: TSM... Cruising towards 174.08?

Hi everyone! I’ll be looking at another semiconductor stock: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) TSM is forming higher highs and higher lows. It recently made new ATHs above 145 but has since come back below this level. I have identified 141.99 as a key pivot to reclaim for the next leg to occur. This was where prior ATHs rejected, and also a recent rejection zone (rejected even during Friday’s session). However, hidden bullish divergence has started to form on the weekly, which is a good sign for bulls. It is also trading in an ascending broadening wedge expansion pattern, similar to other semiconductor stocks such as AMD and MRVL. On the daily chart, the expansion pattern is more visible. I note that it is forming a hidden bullish divergence on the daily as well.
My Watchlist [80]: TSM... Cruising towards 174.08?
avatarTBI
2023-07-02

Intel (INTC) [2] - How It's Going.

Stance: BUY, Price Target: 70 (TA as of 2/7/2023) Fundamentally, there is no change to my stance on INTC. The charts look primed for further upside, and anyone not buying at these levels will chase much higher up. Refer to my initial coverage here: https://ttm.financial/post/184635010363424 Let’s look at the monthly chart: There are some key things worth noting about the monthly chart, namely: We continue to hold the 29.30 yearly Fibonacci extension as support for the third month in a row, which should turn it into a much stronger support for a push higher We closed over both the 200 (33.17) and 225 MAs (31.99) for the first time in 10 months - many a times these longer-term MAs act as very strong supports in stable trends We closed the month with a MACD bullish crossover for the first ti
Intel (INTC) [2] - How It's Going.
avatarTBI
07-18

My Watchlist [122]: NVDA... The Situation.

Hi everyone. Today I’ll be covering one of the most watched stocks in the world: Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) NVDA is trading in an ascending channel with a consistent series of higher highs and higher lows. I have also drawn out an ascending broadening wedge pattern based on expanding highs and lows (i.e. larger range between swings). The weekly chart above suggests that some bearish divergence is forming, as can be seen on both RSI and Stochastic RSI with the lower high and bearish crossover respectively. On the daily chart, NVDA continues to base at this 117 area, forming an “M” shape in the process. While not yet at 0, Stochastic RSI is in the extreme oversold zone. I have indicated the risk-to-reward for the respective market participants (bulls and bears) at the respective zones
My Watchlist [122]: NVDA... The Situation.
avatarTBI
11-10

TBI's Thoughts [12]: Cloudflare (NYSE: NET)... Primed?

Hi everyone. Today we’re going to be looking at a cybersecurity company: Cloudflare, Inc. (NYSE: NET) NET has been trading in a series of higher highs and higher lows since IPO. Following the 2021 high, NET has fallen back into its IPO support trendline (in purple). NET’s move higher from its IPO support trendline was led by a trend markup. However, the stock since broke below its trend (in dark green) and has since been supported by its secondary trendline (in light green). However, given that these are shorter-term trends, they can break provided we do not lose the “master” trend on NET (in purple). We can see that the key resistance now is the 116-122.13 area, which was strong resistance in 2022, and also a strong resistance in February this year after earnings. NET is currently basing
TBI's Thoughts [12]: Cloudflare (NYSE: NET)... Primed?
avatarTBI
2022-12-21
So, here's my thoughts on the latest news about Elon stepping down as CEO only after finding a replacement... This might be a good decision in the long run. Elon is already the owner of Twitter anyways, and what he says will play a pivotal role in the future direction of Twitter. What Elon could do is provide the "big picture" framework, while his replacement will do the work of executing his vision and connecting with the employees.  By entrusting the company to a CEO who understands Elon's demands and working style, he can also better focus on improving the misguided perception that he is "distracted" from his work at the multiple companies under his purview, namely $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , SpaceX, Neuralink and The Bor
avatarTBI
2022-12-29

XOM: Trade Update 29/12/22

I am leaning BEARISH on $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$  at these levels.  The daily chart above shows that the stock is trading in a bearish rising wedge pattern on the daily. This pattern is characterised by higher highs and higher lows and rising trend lines that eventually converge, usually cumulating in a breakdown below the wedge. In the current bear market, we have seen rising wedges in the middle of downtrends on major ETFs such as $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . The stock has a neutral 14-day RSI of 51.98 (between 30 and 70) and is currently trading above the middle Bollinger Band.  So, how do we trade this? Based on how we have opened in pre-market with a gap do
XOM: Trade Update 29/12/22
avatarTBI
2023-02-12

The Rally ISN'T Over.

The stock market rally that has taken retail bears by surprise is NOT over yet. Here's why I think that is the case: Consider SPY's daily chart. As you can see, since we made a short-term capitulation style bottom at 348, we have been trading in a rising wedge pattern that is reminiscent of previous bear markets. We have seen higher highs and higher lows in the pattern. It is interesting to note that since the start of this year, we have been trading in a secondary ascending channel within the broader wedge pattern. Bullish divergence has continued to form after Friday's trading session. While we made higher lows on the daily, the 14-day RSI indicator was making lower lows. This suggests that rally continuation is inbound.  By the end of this week, I am expecting the ma
The Rally ISN'T Over.
avatarTBI
2023-02-25

What's Up with Nvidia?

Hi everyone! I’m here to give another update on everybody’s favourite semiconductor stock - Nvidia! To make my charts simpler and less cluttered, I have re-charted NVDA from scratch! It is very different from what I had envisioned previously. Here’s a look at Nvidia’s daily chart: Based on the daily chart, we can see that the stock is trading in a large broadening wedge pattern. Based on what I can see from the bearish divergences (red lines), it suggests that a big leg down could be coming on NVDA. We once again have higher highs based on price action but higher lows based on the 14-day RSI. With yesterday’s closing candle showing a curl of the RSI, I think we have created a third lower high on the RSI while making a third higher high in the stock price. This is indicative of a leg down
What's Up with Nvidia?
avatarTBI
03-04

My Watchlist [68]: RUN... Headed back to 22.23?

*TA as of 28/2/24 Hi everyone! I’ll be updating my TA on a solar provider today: Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) RUN was previously trading in a falling wedge consolidation pattern (maroon trendlines) after putting in a blow off top. It subsequently broke out of this pattern after basing at COVID lows at the 7-8 area. Recently, we saw a breakout of the falling wedge that suggests a change in trend. RUN is currently trading in a shorter-term symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern that is making lower highs and higher lows. Hidden bullish divergence has been forming at lows, and the stock has retraced more than 61.8% of its move from 8.43 to 20.68. In the near-term, I can see a move towards the 15.04-15.21 gap. A breakout of the symmetrical triangle pattern should see a move towards 17.16, and
My Watchlist [68]: RUN... Headed back to 22.23?
avatarTBI
2022-12-25

Trade Idea: SPY

I am BULLISH on $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ for now. Here's a look at its daily chart: The stock closed above its 5DMA, which is a level it lost after the November CPI print was released a few days ago. This suggests a near-term trend reversal is inbound. Furthermore, the ETF appears to be forming a double bottom "W" setup around the high 370s-low 380s level, which suggests that a retest of 400s might be coming in the coming days and weeks.  Moreover, the ETF is once again trading at the lower Bollinger Band, which suggests that at some point we will get a trend reversal to the middle BB (something like mean reversion).  To add to that, based on historical data, the final trading week of the year tends to bring a
Trade Idea: SPY
avatarTBI
2022-12-26

Order Types: Part 4

Here's some additional pointers when you place orders using the Tiger mobile application or on desktop! You might also notice some additional parameters to input, such as the time-in-force, and whether to fill outside RTH. I will now break down both concepts briefly. Time-in-force normally consists of Day and Good-till-Cancelled (GTC). For Day orders, they will expire at the end of the the trading day, or the end of after hours trading, depending on whether your broker has after hours trading enabled. As for GTC orders, they will only expire when you cancel them manually, or when a certain period of time has elapsed, after which the system will automatically cancel your order regardless of the status of order fulfilment. Normally, GTC orders could remain in place for stocks with low liquid
Order Types: Part 4

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