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2023-04-14

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@ToughCoyote:Yu Weiwen, president of the HKMA, meets leaders in the banking and financial circles in New York today (NY 12th). After staying in New York, he will go to Washington to attend the Spring Meeting of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. He said at a luncheon co-organized by the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in New York and the National Committee of the U.S.-China Relations that Hong Kong's banking and financial system$HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$ is stable and tough, and is ready to meet various challenges. Hong Kong is linked to the US dollar. Monetary policy has provided the most critical stability for Hong Kong's opening and export-oriented economy. The government has also launched different measures to drive domes

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3 Cash Cows to Buy for Passive Income in Retirement

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Midterm Elections: What to Watch in Markets As America Votes

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Down 32%, Is Disney a Buy?

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Qualcomm Fights Back Against Arm in Dispute Over Chip Technology

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2022-10-25

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Yellen Says Taking Steps to Enhance Treasury Market, Funds Resilience

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3 Spectacular Stocks Down 58% to 82% to Buy on the Dip

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After staying in New York, he will go to Washington to attend the Spring Meeting of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. He said at a luncheon co-organized by the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in New York and the National Committee of the U.S.-China Relations that Hong Kong's banking and financial system<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00005\">$HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$&nbsp;</a>is stable and tough, and is ready to meet various challenges.&nbsp; Hong Kong is linked to the US dollar. Monetary policy has provided the most critical stability for Hong Kong's opening and export-oriented economy. The government has also launched different measures to drive domes","listText":"Yu Weiwen, president of the HKMA, meets leaders in the banking and financial circles in New York today (NY 12th). After staying in New York, he will go to Washington to attend the Spring Meeting of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. He said at a luncheon co-organized by the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in New York and the National Committee of the U.S.-China Relations that Hong Kong's banking and financial system<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00005\">$HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$&nbsp;</a>is stable and tough, and is ready to meet various challenges.&nbsp; Hong Kong is linked to the US dollar. Monetary policy has provided the most critical stability for Hong Kong's opening and export-oriented economy. The government has also launched different measures to drive domes","text":"Yu Weiwen, president of the HKMA, meets leaders in the banking and financial circles in New York today (NY 12th). After staying in New York, he will go to Washington to attend the Spring Meeting of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. He said at a luncheon co-organized by the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in New York and the National Committee of the U.S.-China Relations that Hong Kong's banking and financial system$HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$ is stable and tough, and is ready to meet various challenges. Hong Kong is linked to the US dollar. Monetary policy has provided the most critical stability for Hong Kong's opening and export-oriented economy. The government has also launched different measures to drive domes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945170114","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942505328,"gmtCreate":1681249369864,"gmtModify":1681249371593,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942505328","repostId":"2326772196","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2326772196","pubTimestamp":1681211478,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2326772196?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-11 19:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Cash Cows to Buy for Passive Income in Retirement","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326772196","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"These three passive income generating stocks are great for those nearing retirement.Realty Income (O","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>These three passive income generating stocks are great for those nearing retirement.</p></li><li><p><strong>Realty Income</strong> (<strong>O</strong>): This corporation stands out as one of the most reliable providers of dividends in the financial markets.</p></li><li><p><strong>McDonald’s</strong> (<strong>MCD</strong>): The fast-food chain is likely to thrive during an economic downturn– whenever it may happen.</p></li><li><p><strong>Coca-Cola</strong> (<strong>KO</strong>): Third quarter earnings report of this beverage company reaffirmed that it is resistant to economic downturns.</p></li></ul><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f4cc525f1a2f0c1af11759ba0fde1f9\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"/></p><p></p><p>Source: iQoncept/shutterstock.com</p><p>We all dream of retiring with a steady income and financial security. Discovering passive income streams is one of the ideal outcomes for those heading into, or already in, retirement. </p><p>Indeed, the flexibility self-created monthly or quarterly income provides is precious. Who knows how long social security benefits will remain funded? We’re now nearing a funding cliff for many major programs, and there appear to be calls to cut certain programs, eventually. Essentially, the system as it is right now is unsustainable. Many investors know this, and many are looking to great their own passive income for retirement.</p><p>Thus, for those seeking to do so in the stock market, this task can be daunting. Plenty of high-yield companies also offer relatively high risk. Conversely, a wide swath of growth stocks offer no yield at all.</p><p>Here are three dividend stocks I think provide defensiveness, value and stability, alongside meaningful and consistent income. These are all companies I’d stick with until retirement.</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>O</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Realty Income</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$61.85</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>MCD</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>McDonald’s</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$282.23</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>KO</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>Coca-Cola</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$62.41</p></td></tr></tbody></table><h2>Realty Income (O)</h2><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40d6b0f5de2972f4461ff4ad61b490fd\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p></p><p>Source: ImageFlow/shutterstock.com</p><p>First on this list of cash cows to buy for those seeking a passive income stream is <strong>Realty Income </strong>(NYSE:<strong>O</strong>).</p><p>Realty Income is a real estate investment trust (<strong>REIT</strong>) specializing in obtaining and overseeing individual freestanding commercial properties leased to clients for extended periods. The properties are leased to retail and industrial clients with a service, low-price, or non-discretionary focus. The corporation has real estate holdings in all 50 US states, Puerto Rico, Spain, Italy, and the UK.</p><p>Realty Income has gained immense popularity for its monthly dividends, a concept it championed, earning the moniker “Monthly Dividend Company” many years ago. As a triple-net lease real estate investment trust, Realty Income benefits from tenants covering significant expenses like utilities and taxes, making these leases more attractive options for investors.</p><p>With that said, Realty Income makes a great passive income source for retirement investors because of its reliable and consistent dividends. Realty Income is navigating the current economic conditions as well.</p><p>The prospect of increased interest rates presents a potential challenge, as the company may have to pay more to cover its debt in the coming years. However, inflation can also work in Realty Income’s favor by boosting the value of its assets and allowing for more flexibility in raising rental prices.</p><h2>McDonald’s (MCD)</h2><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9af23a7600ef373a81e4c8171aff8b8\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p></p><p>Source: 8th.creator / Shutterstock.com</p><p><strong>McDonald’s</strong> (NYSE:<strong>MCD</strong>) is a renowned fast-food brand offering diverse fundamentals.</p><p>It falls under the consumer discretionary industry, as customers can choose from other food chains.</p><p>McDonald’s is a reliable choice for investors as it consistently performs well in the market, making it a suitable investment during difficult economic times. Indeed, MCD stock is a stable and unexciting equity to purchase.</p><p>McDonald’s is a global leader in terms of quick service restaurant brands. Thus, if the expected economic downturn (or recession) takes place in 2023, those looking to dine out may choose toward a lower-priced option, such as McDonald’s.</p><p>If a recession doesn’t take place, those who frequent these establishments may increase their dining frequency, also boosting this company’s stock.</p><p>McDonald’s business model is ideal for those who believe the economy will improve, but are still determining the timing. The fast-food chain has a robust financial structure and can sustain steady demand during prosperous and challenging economic times, making it a practical and cautious option.</p><p>Ultimately, McDonald’s is the perfect “play-it-safe” choice, with its balance sheet rated as investment grade. While having a solid financial foundation is essential in a challenging economic climate, it is equally beneficial during prosperous times.</p><h2>Coca-Cola (KO)</h2><p></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d8e72e7d7e3202117d709804d99c4a\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p></p><p>Source: Fotazdymak / Shutterstock.com</p><p><strong>Coca-Cola</strong> (NYSE:<strong>KO</strong>) is a solid investment for those seeking a reliable dividend stock.</p><p>Currently, KO stock offers a dividend yield of 3% and has expanded beyond beverages into healthy snacks. While it may not see significant growth in the short term, Coca-Cola is a trusted brand that will stabilize any portfolio.</p><p>According to the company’s most recent Q3 earnings report, Coca-Cola has shown that the company’s resilient strategy against economic downturns is still effective. Despite facing significant currency challenges and increased expenses, the famous beverage company achieved 10% growth in revenue, reaching $11.1 billion. These results also allowed the company to revise its full-year forecast upwards.</p><p>One appealing characteristic of KO stock to consider is its potential to thrive in times of doubt. If the general economic situation worsens, Coca-Cola has a few advantages. First, their flagship products have a captivating quality that keeps customers returning. Second, they can draw customers away from other providers of caffeinated drinks and gain a more significant market share.</p><p>It’s worth mentioning that KO stock is only one hold rating away from earning a complete strong buy recommendation from analysts. It’s no surprise that analysts are optimistic about the company’s future. Along with its revenue growth, Coca-Cola has impressive profit margins. For instance, its net margin is 23.44%, higher than more than 94% of its competitors.</p><p>In essence, KO stock is well-positioned to handle any changes in the economy. If the market experiences an upswing, Coca-Cola’s focus on millennials should yield significant profits. Conversely, if a recession arises, the company’s products compelling appeal should keep it afloat.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Cash Cows to Buy for Passive Income in Retirement</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Cash Cows to Buy for Passive Income in Retirement\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-11 19:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2023/04/3-cash-cows-to-buy-for-passive-income-in-retirement/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>These three passive income generating stocks are great for those nearing retirement.Realty Income (O): This corporation stands out as one of the most reliable providers of dividends in the financial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2023/04/3-cash-cows-to-buy-for-passive-income-in-retirement/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4209":"餐馆","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H","SG9999014575.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USDHDG) INC","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","KO":"可口可乐","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","BK4177":"软饮料","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","O":"Realty Income Corp","SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","MCD":"麦当劳","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4080":"零售业房地产投资信托","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","SG9999015341.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD-H","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2023/04/3-cash-cows-to-buy-for-passive-income-in-retirement/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2326772196","content_text":"These three passive income generating stocks are great for those nearing retirement.Realty Income (O): This corporation stands out as one of the most reliable providers of dividends in the financial markets.McDonald’s (MCD): The fast-food chain is likely to thrive during an economic downturn– whenever it may happen.Coca-Cola (KO): Third quarter earnings report of this beverage company reaffirmed that it is resistant to economic downturns.Source: iQoncept/shutterstock.comWe all dream of retiring with a steady income and financial security. Discovering passive income streams is one of the ideal outcomes for those heading into, or already in, retirement. Indeed, the flexibility self-created monthly or quarterly income provides is precious. Who knows how long social security benefits will remain funded? We’re now nearing a funding cliff for many major programs, and there appear to be calls to cut certain programs, eventually. Essentially, the system as it is right now is unsustainable. Many investors know this, and many are looking to great their own passive income for retirement.Thus, for those seeking to do so in the stock market, this task can be daunting. Plenty of high-yield companies also offer relatively high risk. Conversely, a wide swath of growth stocks offer no yield at all.Here are three dividend stocks I think provide defensiveness, value and stability, alongside meaningful and consistent income. These are all companies I’d stick with until retirement.ORealty Income$61.85MCDMcDonald’s$282.23KOCoca-Cola$62.41Realty Income (O)Source: ImageFlow/shutterstock.comFirst on this list of cash cows to buy for those seeking a passive income stream is Realty Income (NYSE:O).Realty Income is a real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in obtaining and overseeing individual freestanding commercial properties leased to clients for extended periods. The properties are leased to retail and industrial clients with a service, low-price, or non-discretionary focus. The corporation has real estate holdings in all 50 US states, Puerto Rico, Spain, Italy, and the UK.Realty Income has gained immense popularity for its monthly dividends, a concept it championed, earning the moniker “Monthly Dividend Company” many years ago. As a triple-net lease real estate investment trust, Realty Income benefits from tenants covering significant expenses like utilities and taxes, making these leases more attractive options for investors.With that said, Realty Income makes a great passive income source for retirement investors because of its reliable and consistent dividends. Realty Income is navigating the current economic conditions as well.The prospect of increased interest rates presents a potential challenge, as the company may have to pay more to cover its debt in the coming years. However, inflation can also work in Realty Income’s favor by boosting the value of its assets and allowing for more flexibility in raising rental prices.McDonald’s (MCD)Source: 8th.creator / Shutterstock.comMcDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) is a renowned fast-food brand offering diverse fundamentals.It falls under the consumer discretionary industry, as customers can choose from other food chains.McDonald’s is a reliable choice for investors as it consistently performs well in the market, making it a suitable investment during difficult economic times. Indeed, MCD stock is a stable and unexciting equity to purchase.McDonald’s is a global leader in terms of quick service restaurant brands. Thus, if the expected economic downturn (or recession) takes place in 2023, those looking to dine out may choose toward a lower-priced option, such as McDonald’s.If a recession doesn’t take place, those who frequent these establishments may increase their dining frequency, also boosting this company’s stock.McDonald’s business model is ideal for those who believe the economy will improve, but are still determining the timing. The fast-food chain has a robust financial structure and can sustain steady demand during prosperous and challenging economic times, making it a practical and cautious option.Ultimately, McDonald’s is the perfect “play-it-safe” choice, with its balance sheet rated as investment grade. While having a solid financial foundation is essential in a challenging economic climate, it is equally beneficial during prosperous times.Coca-Cola (KO)Source: Fotazdymak / Shutterstock.comCoca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is a solid investment for those seeking a reliable dividend stock.Currently, KO stock offers a dividend yield of 3% and has expanded beyond beverages into healthy snacks. While it may not see significant growth in the short term, Coca-Cola is a trusted brand that will stabilize any portfolio.According to the company’s most recent Q3 earnings report, Coca-Cola has shown that the company’s resilient strategy against economic downturns is still effective. Despite facing significant currency challenges and increased expenses, the famous beverage company achieved 10% growth in revenue, reaching $11.1 billion. These results also allowed the company to revise its full-year forecast upwards.One appealing characteristic of KO stock to consider is its potential to thrive in times of doubt. If the general economic situation worsens, Coca-Cola has a few advantages. First, their flagship products have a captivating quality that keeps customers returning. Second, they can draw customers away from other providers of caffeinated drinks and gain a more significant market share.It’s worth mentioning that KO stock is only one hold rating away from earning a complete strong buy recommendation from analysts. It’s no surprise that analysts are optimistic about the company’s future. Along with its revenue growth, Coca-Cola has impressive profit margins. For instance, its net margin is 23.44%, higher than more than 94% of its competitors.In essence, KO stock is well-positioned to handle any changes in the economy. If the market experiences an upswing, Coca-Cola’s focus on millennials should yield significant profits. Conversely, if a recession arises, the company’s products compelling appeal should keep it afloat.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957597108,"gmtCreate":1677375098905,"gmtModify":1677375102377,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957597108","repostId":"1117520516","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117520516","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677334099,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117520516?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-25 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Will Always Hold a Boatload of Cash and U.S. Treasury Bills","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117520516","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Warren Buffett is still betting on America.Stocks and bonds slumped in 2022 after central banks rais","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett is still betting on America.</p><p>Stocks and bonds slumped in 2022 after central banks raised interest rates at a rapid pace to try to rein in inflation. But Mr. Buffett retained his sense of optimism in his annual letter to investors Saturday, saying he attributes much of his success over the years to the resilience of the U.S. economy.</p><p>“I have been investing for 80 years—more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant—almost enthusiasm—for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America,” Mr. Buffett said in the letter.</p><p>Mr. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the world’s top investors, has been publishing the letters for more than half a century. Over that time, he hasn’t just reflected on the past year for his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., but also shared his thoughts on everything from esoteric accounting rules to his aversion to excessive risk-taking.</p><p>Saturday’s letter offered readers a glimpse into how Mr. Buffett, 92, viewed what wound up being a shaky stretch for markets.</p><p>The volatility offered Berkshire an opportunity to jump in and buy stocks. While Berkshire largely bought back its own shares in 2021, it focused more in 2022 on investing in other companies—opening up new positions in media company Paramount Global and building-materials manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific Corp., among other businesses, and swiftly becoming Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s single biggest shareholder.</p><p>As of the end of 2022, Berkshire was the largest shareholder of eight companies—American Express Co., Bank of America Corp., Chevron Corp., Coca-Cola Co., HP Inc., Moody’s Corp., Occidental and Paramount Global.</p><p>“America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true,” Mr. Buffett said.</p><p>Berkshire also released its results for 2022 on Saturday.</p><p>The Omaha, Neb., company, which owns businesses including insurer Geico, railroad BNSF Railway and chocolate maker See’s Candies, posted a loss of $22.82 billion for the year, stung by $67.9 billion in investment and derivative contract losses. In 2021, Berkshire posted a profit of $90.8 billion.</p><p>Total revenue rose 9.4% to $302.1 billion.</p><p>Berkshire’s operating earnings, which exclude some investment results, rose to a record $30.8 billion.</p><p>Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive, has long held that operating earnings are a better reflection of how Berkshire is doing, since accounting rules require the company to include unrealized gains and losses from its massive investment portfolio in its net income. Volatile markets can make Berkshire’s net income change substantially from quarter to quarter, regardless of how its underlying businesses are doing.</p><p>“Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades,” Mr. Buffett said in his letter. “But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors,” he said, adding that he and his right-hand man Charlie Munger urged shareholders to focus instead on Berkshire’s operating earnings, which rose to a record for the full year in 2022.</p><h2>Read the full letter here:</h2><p>To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:</p><p>Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing the savings of a great number of individuals. We are grateful for their enduring trust, a relationship that often spans much of their adult lifetime. It is those dedicated savers that are forefront in my mind as I write this letter.</p><p>A common belief is that people choose to save when young, expecting thereby to maintain their living standards after retirement. Any assets that remain at death, this theory says, will usually be left to their families or, possibly, to friends and philanthropy.</p><p>Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular.</p><p>The disposition of money unmasks humans. Charlie and I watch with pleasure the vast flow of Berkshire-generated funds to public needs and, alongside, the infrequency with which our shareholders opt for look-at-me assets and dynasty-building.</p><p>Who wouldn’t enjoy working for shareholders like ours?</p><h2>What We Do</h2><p>Charlie and I allocate your savings at Berkshire between two related forms of ownership. First, we invest in businesses that we control, usually buying 100% of each. Berkshire directs capital allocation at these subsidiaries and selects the CEOs who make day-by-day operating decisions. When large enterprises are being managed, both trust and rules are essential. Berkshire emphasizes the former to an unusual – some would say extreme – degree. Disappointments are inevitable. We are understanding about business mistakes; our tolerance for personal misconduct is zero.</p><p>In our second category of ownership, we buy publicly-traded stocks through which we passively own pieces of businesses. Holding these investments, we have no say in management.</p><p>Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.</p><p>Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”</p><p>One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.</p><p>Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)</p><p>Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire. Let’s take a peek behind the curtain.</p><h2>The Secret Sauce</h2><p>In August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire.</p><p>The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.</p><p>American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase.</p><p>These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.</p><p>Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.</p><p>The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.</p><h2>The Past Year in Brief</h2><p>Berkshire had a good year in 2022. The company’s operating earnings – our term for income calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”), exclusive of capital gains or losses from equity holdings – set a record at $30.8 billion. Charlie and I focus on this operational figure and urge you to do so as well. The GAAP figure, absent our adjustment, fluctuates wildly and capriciously at every reporting date. Note its acrobatic behavior in 2022, which is in no way unusual:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e74650656620f9fa3f1e55c15a90e5\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"207\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The GAAP earnings are 100% misleading when viewed quarterly or even annually. Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades. But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors.</p><p>A second positive development for Berkshire last year was our purchase of Alleghany Corporation, a property-casualty insurer captained by Joe Brandon. I’ve worked with Joe in the past, and he understands both Berkshire  and insurance. Alleghany delivers special value to us because Berkshire’s unmatched financial strength allows its insurance subsidiaries to follow valuable and enduring investment strategies unavailable to virtually all competitors.</p><p>Aided by Alleghany, our insurance float increased during 2022 from $147 billion to $164 billion. With disciplined underwriting, these funds have a decent chance of being cost-free over time. Since purchasing our first property-casualty insurer in 1967, Berkshire’s float has increased 8,000-fold through acquisitions, operations and innovations. Though not recognized in our financial statements, this float has been an extraordinary asset for Berkshire. New shareholders can get an understanding of its value by reading our annually updated explanation of float on page A-2.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>A very minor gain in per-share intrinsic value took place in 2022 through Berkshire share repurchases as well as similar moves at Apple and American Express, both significant investees of ours. At Berkshire, we directly increased your interest in our unique collection of businesses by repurchasing 1.2% of the company’s outstanding shares. At Apple and Amex, repurchases increased Berkshire’s ownership a bit without any cost to us.</p><p>The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases.</p><p>Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect. Imagine, if you will, three fully-informed shareholders of a local auto dealership, one of whom manages the business. Imagine, further, that one of the passive owners wishes to sell his interest back to the company at a price attractive to the two continuing shareholders. When completed, has this transaction harmed anyone? Is the manager somehow favored over the continuing passive owners? Has the public been hurt?</p><p>When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive).</p><p>Almost endless details of Berkshire’s 2022 operations are laid out on pages K-33 – K-66. Charlie and I, along with many Berkshire shareholders, enjoy poring over the many facts and figures laid out in that section. These pages are not, however, required reading. There are many Berkshire centimillionaires and, yes, billionaires who have never studied our financial figures. They simply know that Charlie and I – along with our families and close friends – continue to have very significant investments in Berkshire, and they trust us to treat their money as we do our own.</p><p>And that is a promise we can make.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating “expectations” is heralded as a managerial triumph.</p><p>That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. “Bold imaginative accounting,” as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism.</p><h2>58 Years – and a Few Figures</h2><p>In 1965, Berkshire was a one-trick pony, the owner of a venerable – but doomed – New England textile operation. With that business on a death march, Berkshire needed an immediate fresh start. Looking back, I was slow to recognize the severity of its problems.</p><p>And then came a stroke of good luck: National Indemnity became available in 1967, and we shifted our resources toward insurance and other non-textile operations.</p><p>Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.</p><p>Berkshire now enjoys major ownership in an unmatched collection of huge and diversified businesses. Let’s first look at the 5,000 or so publicly-held companies that trade daily on NASDAQ, the NYSE and related venues. Within this group is housed the members of the S&amp;P 500 Index, an elite collection of large and well-known American companies.</p><p>In aggregate, the 500 earned $1.8 trillion in 2021. I don’t yet have the final results for 2022. Using, therefore, the 2021 figures, only 128 of the 500 (including Berkshire itself) earned $3 billion or more. Indeed, 23 lost money.</p><p>At yearend 2022, Berkshire was the largest owner of eight of these giants: American Express, Bank of America, Chevron, Coca-Cola, HP Inc., Moody’s, Occidental Petroleum and Paramount Global.</p><p>In addition to those eight investees, Berkshire owns 100% of BNSF and 92% of BH Energy, each with earnings that exceed the $3 billion mark noted above ($5.9 billion at BNSF and</p><p>$4.3 billion at BHE). Were these companies publicly-owned, they would replace two present members of the 500. All told, our ten controlled and non-controlled behemoths leave Berkshire more broadly aligned with the country’s economic future than is the case at any other U.S. company. (This calculation leaves aside “fiduciary” operations such as pension funds and investment companies.) In addition, Berkshire’s insurance operation, though conducted through many individually-managed subsidiaries, has a value comparable to BNSF or BHE.</p><p>As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money. And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings.</p><p>At Berkshire, there will be no finish line.</p><h2>Some Surprising Facts About Federal Taxes</h2><p>During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion.</p><p>Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless. Our job is to manage Berkshire’s operations and finances in a manner that will achieve an acceptable result over time and that will preserve the company’s unmatched staying power when financial panics or severe worldwide recessions occur. Berkshire also offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences.</p><p>The $32 trillion of revenue was garnered by the Treasury through individual income taxes (48%), social security and related receipts (3412%), corporate income tax payments (812%) and a wide variety of lesser levies. Berkshire’s contribution via the corporate income tax was $32 billion during the decade, almost exactly a tenth of 1% of all money that the Treasury collected.</p><p>And that means – brace yourself – had there been roughly 1,000 taxpayers in the U.S. matching Berkshire’s payments, no other businesses nor any of the country’s 131 million households would have needed to pay any taxes to the federal government. Not a dime.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Millions, billions, trillions – we all know the words, but the sums involved are almost impossible to comprehend. Let’s put physical dimensions to the numbers:</p><p>- If you convert $1 million into newly-printed $100 bills, you will have a stack that reaches your chest.</p><p>- Perform the same exercise with $1 billion – this is getting exciting! – and the stack reaches about 34 of a mile into the sky.</p><p>- Finally, imagine piling up $32 billion, the total of Berkshire’s 2012-21 federal income tax payments. Now the stack grows to more than 21 miles in height, about three times the level at which commercial airplanes usually cruise.</p><p>When it comes to federal taxes, individuals who own Berkshire can unequivocally state “I gave at the office.”</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.</p><p>I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.</p><h2>Nothing Beats Having a Great Partner</h2><p>Charlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated.</p><p>Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:</p><p>- The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.</p><p>- If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.</p><p>- All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.</p><p>- If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.</p><p>- Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.</p><p>- You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.</p><p>- Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.</p><p>- A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.</p><p>- Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.</p><p>- Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.</p><p>- There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.</p><p>- You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.</p><p>- You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.</p><p>- Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.</p><p>- Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”</p><p>And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own:   Find   a   very   smart   high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.</p><h2>A Family Gathering in Omaha</h2><p>Charlie and I are shameless. Last year, at our first shareholder get-together in three years, we greeted you with our usual commercial hustle.</p><p>From the opening bell, we went straight for your wallet. In short order, our See’s kiosk sold you eleven tons of nourishing peanut brittle and chocolates. In our P.T. Barnum pitch, we promised you longevity. After all, what else but candy from See’s could account for Charlie and me making it to 99 and 92?</p><p>I know you can’t wait to hear the specifics of last year’s hustle.</p><p>On Friday, the doors were open from noon until 5 p.m., and our candy counters rang up 2,690 individual sales. On Saturday, See’s registered an additional 3,931 transactions between 7 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., despite the fact that 612 of the 912 operating hours occurred while our movie and the question-and-answer session were limiting commercial traffic.</p><p>Do the math: See’s rang up about 10 sales per minute during its prime operating time (racking up $400,309 of volume during the two days), with all the goods purchased at a single location selling products that haven’t been materially altered in 101 years. What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Charlie, I, and the entire Berkshire bunch look forward to seeing you in Omaha on May 5-6. We will have a good time and so will you.</p><p>February 25, 2023 Warren E. Buffett </p><p>Chairman of the Board</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Will Always Hold a Boatload of Cash and U.S. Treasury Bills</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Will Always Hold a Boatload of Cash and U.S. Treasury Bills\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-25 22:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett is still betting on America.</p><p>Stocks and bonds slumped in 2022 after central banks raised interest rates at a rapid pace to try to rein in inflation. But Mr. Buffett retained his sense of optimism in his annual letter to investors Saturday, saying he attributes much of his success over the years to the resilience of the U.S. economy.</p><p>“I have been investing for 80 years—more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant—almost enthusiasm—for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America,” Mr. Buffett said in the letter.</p><p>Mr. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the world’s top investors, has been publishing the letters for more than half a century. Over that time, he hasn’t just reflected on the past year for his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., but also shared his thoughts on everything from esoteric accounting rules to his aversion to excessive risk-taking.</p><p>Saturday’s letter offered readers a glimpse into how Mr. Buffett, 92, viewed what wound up being a shaky stretch for markets.</p><p>The volatility offered Berkshire an opportunity to jump in and buy stocks. While Berkshire largely bought back its own shares in 2021, it focused more in 2022 on investing in other companies—opening up new positions in media company Paramount Global and building-materials manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific Corp., among other businesses, and swiftly becoming Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s single biggest shareholder.</p><p>As of the end of 2022, Berkshire was the largest shareholder of eight companies—American Express Co., Bank of America Corp., Chevron Corp., Coca-Cola Co., HP Inc., Moody’s Corp., Occidental and Paramount Global.</p><p>“America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true,” Mr. Buffett said.</p><p>Berkshire also released its results for 2022 on Saturday.</p><p>The Omaha, Neb., company, which owns businesses including insurer Geico, railroad BNSF Railway and chocolate maker See’s Candies, posted a loss of $22.82 billion for the year, stung by $67.9 billion in investment and derivative contract losses. In 2021, Berkshire posted a profit of $90.8 billion.</p><p>Total revenue rose 9.4% to $302.1 billion.</p><p>Berkshire’s operating earnings, which exclude some investment results, rose to a record $30.8 billion.</p><p>Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive, has long held that operating earnings are a better reflection of how Berkshire is doing, since accounting rules require the company to include unrealized gains and losses from its massive investment portfolio in its net income. Volatile markets can make Berkshire’s net income change substantially from quarter to quarter, regardless of how its underlying businesses are doing.</p><p>“Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades,” Mr. Buffett said in his letter. “But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors,” he said, adding that he and his right-hand man Charlie Munger urged shareholders to focus instead on Berkshire’s operating earnings, which rose to a record for the full year in 2022.</p><h2>Read the full letter here:</h2><p>To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:</p><p>Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing the savings of a great number of individuals. We are grateful for their enduring trust, a relationship that often spans much of their adult lifetime. It is those dedicated savers that are forefront in my mind as I write this letter.</p><p>A common belief is that people choose to save when young, expecting thereby to maintain their living standards after retirement. Any assets that remain at death, this theory says, will usually be left to their families or, possibly, to friends and philanthropy.</p><p>Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular.</p><p>The disposition of money unmasks humans. Charlie and I watch with pleasure the vast flow of Berkshire-generated funds to public needs and, alongside, the infrequency with which our shareholders opt for look-at-me assets and dynasty-building.</p><p>Who wouldn’t enjoy working for shareholders like ours?</p><h2>What We Do</h2><p>Charlie and I allocate your savings at Berkshire between two related forms of ownership. First, we invest in businesses that we control, usually buying 100% of each. Berkshire directs capital allocation at these subsidiaries and selects the CEOs who make day-by-day operating decisions. When large enterprises are being managed, both trust and rules are essential. Berkshire emphasizes the former to an unusual – some would say extreme – degree. Disappointments are inevitable. We are understanding about business mistakes; our tolerance for personal misconduct is zero.</p><p>In our second category of ownership, we buy publicly-traded stocks through which we passively own pieces of businesses. Holding these investments, we have no say in management.</p><p>Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.</p><p>Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”</p><p>One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.</p><p>Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)</p><p>Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire. Let’s take a peek behind the curtain.</p><h2>The Secret Sauce</h2><p>In August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire.</p><p>The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.</p><p>American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase.</p><p>These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.</p><p>Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.</p><p>The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.</p><h2>The Past Year in Brief</h2><p>Berkshire had a good year in 2022. The company’s operating earnings – our term for income calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”), exclusive of capital gains or losses from equity holdings – set a record at $30.8 billion. Charlie and I focus on this operational figure and urge you to do so as well. The GAAP figure, absent our adjustment, fluctuates wildly and capriciously at every reporting date. Note its acrobatic behavior in 2022, which is in no way unusual:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69e74650656620f9fa3f1e55c15a90e5\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"207\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The GAAP earnings are 100% misleading when viewed quarterly or even annually. Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades. But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors.</p><p>A second positive development for Berkshire last year was our purchase of Alleghany Corporation, a property-casualty insurer captained by Joe Brandon. I’ve worked with Joe in the past, and he understands both Berkshire  and insurance. Alleghany delivers special value to us because Berkshire’s unmatched financial strength allows its insurance subsidiaries to follow valuable and enduring investment strategies unavailable to virtually all competitors.</p><p>Aided by Alleghany, our insurance float increased during 2022 from $147 billion to $164 billion. With disciplined underwriting, these funds have a decent chance of being cost-free over time. Since purchasing our first property-casualty insurer in 1967, Berkshire’s float has increased 8,000-fold through acquisitions, operations and innovations. Though not recognized in our financial statements, this float has been an extraordinary asset for Berkshire. New shareholders can get an understanding of its value by reading our annually updated explanation of float on page A-2.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>A very minor gain in per-share intrinsic value took place in 2022 through Berkshire share repurchases as well as similar moves at Apple and American Express, both significant investees of ours. At Berkshire, we directly increased your interest in our unique collection of businesses by repurchasing 1.2% of the company’s outstanding shares. At Apple and Amex, repurchases increased Berkshire’s ownership a bit without any cost to us.</p><p>The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases.</p><p>Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect. Imagine, if you will, three fully-informed shareholders of a local auto dealership, one of whom manages the business. Imagine, further, that one of the passive owners wishes to sell his interest back to the company at a price attractive to the two continuing shareholders. When completed, has this transaction harmed anyone? Is the manager somehow favored over the continuing passive owners? Has the public been hurt?</p><p>When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive).</p><p>Almost endless details of Berkshire’s 2022 operations are laid out on pages K-33 – K-66. Charlie and I, along with many Berkshire shareholders, enjoy poring over the many facts and figures laid out in that section. These pages are not, however, required reading. There are many Berkshire centimillionaires and, yes, billionaires who have never studied our financial figures. They simply know that Charlie and I – along with our families and close friends – continue to have very significant investments in Berkshire, and they trust us to treat their money as we do our own.</p><p>And that is a promise we can make.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating “expectations” is heralded as a managerial triumph.</p><p>That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. “Bold imaginative accounting,” as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism.</p><h2>58 Years – and a Few Figures</h2><p>In 1965, Berkshire was a one-trick pony, the owner of a venerable – but doomed – New England textile operation. With that business on a death march, Berkshire needed an immediate fresh start. Looking back, I was slow to recognize the severity of its problems.</p><p>And then came a stroke of good luck: National Indemnity became available in 1967, and we shifted our resources toward insurance and other non-textile operations.</p><p>Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.</p><p>Berkshire now enjoys major ownership in an unmatched collection of huge and diversified businesses. Let’s first look at the 5,000 or so publicly-held companies that trade daily on NASDAQ, the NYSE and related venues. Within this group is housed the members of the S&amp;P 500 Index, an elite collection of large and well-known American companies.</p><p>In aggregate, the 500 earned $1.8 trillion in 2021. I don’t yet have the final results for 2022. Using, therefore, the 2021 figures, only 128 of the 500 (including Berkshire itself) earned $3 billion or more. Indeed, 23 lost money.</p><p>At yearend 2022, Berkshire was the largest owner of eight of these giants: American Express, Bank of America, Chevron, Coca-Cola, HP Inc., Moody’s, Occidental Petroleum and Paramount Global.</p><p>In addition to those eight investees, Berkshire owns 100% of BNSF and 92% of BH Energy, each with earnings that exceed the $3 billion mark noted above ($5.9 billion at BNSF and</p><p>$4.3 billion at BHE). Were these companies publicly-owned, they would replace two present members of the 500. All told, our ten controlled and non-controlled behemoths leave Berkshire more broadly aligned with the country’s economic future than is the case at any other U.S. company. (This calculation leaves aside “fiduciary” operations such as pension funds and investment companies.) In addition, Berkshire’s insurance operation, though conducted through many individually-managed subsidiaries, has a value comparable to BNSF or BHE.</p><p>As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money. And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings.</p><p>At Berkshire, there will be no finish line.</p><h2>Some Surprising Facts About Federal Taxes</h2><p>During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion.</p><p>Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless. Our job is to manage Berkshire’s operations and finances in a manner that will achieve an acceptable result over time and that will preserve the company’s unmatched staying power when financial panics or severe worldwide recessions occur. Berkshire also offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences.</p><p>The $32 trillion of revenue was garnered by the Treasury through individual income taxes (48%), social security and related receipts (3412%), corporate income tax payments (812%) and a wide variety of lesser levies. Berkshire’s contribution via the corporate income tax was $32 billion during the decade, almost exactly a tenth of 1% of all money that the Treasury collected.</p><p>And that means – brace yourself – had there been roughly 1,000 taxpayers in the U.S. matching Berkshire’s payments, no other businesses nor any of the country’s 131 million households would have needed to pay any taxes to the federal government. Not a dime.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Millions, billions, trillions – we all know the words, but the sums involved are almost impossible to comprehend. Let’s put physical dimensions to the numbers:</p><p>- If you convert $1 million into newly-printed $100 bills, you will have a stack that reaches your chest.</p><p>- Perform the same exercise with $1 billion – this is getting exciting! – and the stack reaches about 34 of a mile into the sky.</p><p>- Finally, imagine piling up $32 billion, the total of Berkshire’s 2012-21 federal income tax payments. Now the stack grows to more than 21 miles in height, about three times the level at which commercial airplanes usually cruise.</p><p>When it comes to federal taxes, individuals who own Berkshire can unequivocally state “I gave at the office.”</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.</p><p>I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.</p><h2>Nothing Beats Having a Great Partner</h2><p>Charlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated.</p><p>Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:</p><p>- The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.</p><p>- If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.</p><p>- All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.</p><p>- If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.</p><p>- Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.</p><p>- You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.</p><p>- Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.</p><p>- A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.</p><p>- Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.</p><p>- Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.</p><p>- There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.</p><p>- You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.</p><p>- You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.</p><p>- Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.</p><p>- Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”</p><p>And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own:   Find   a   very   smart   high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.</p><h2>A Family Gathering in Omaha</h2><p>Charlie and I are shameless. Last year, at our first shareholder get-together in three years, we greeted you with our usual commercial hustle.</p><p>From the opening bell, we went straight for your wallet. In short order, our See’s kiosk sold you eleven tons of nourishing peanut brittle and chocolates. In our P.T. Barnum pitch, we promised you longevity. After all, what else but candy from See’s could account for Charlie and me making it to 99 and 92?</p><p>I know you can’t wait to hear the specifics of last year’s hustle.</p><p>On Friday, the doors were open from noon until 5 p.m., and our candy counters rang up 2,690 individual sales. On Saturday, See’s registered an additional 3,931 transactions between 7 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., despite the fact that 612 of the 912 operating hours occurred while our movie and the question-and-answer session were limiting commercial traffic.</p><p>Do the math: See’s rang up about 10 sales per minute during its prime operating time (racking up $400,309 of volume during the two days), with all the goods purchased at a single location selling products that haven’t been materially altered in 101 years. What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Charlie, I, and the entire Berkshire bunch look forward to seeing you in Omaha on May 5-6. We will have a good time and so will you.</p><p>February 25, 2023 Warren E. Buffett </p><p>Chairman of the Board</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117520516","content_text":"Warren Buffett is still betting on America.Stocks and bonds slumped in 2022 after central banks raised interest rates at a rapid pace to try to rein in inflation. But Mr. Buffett retained his sense of optimism in his annual letter to investors Saturday, saying he attributes much of his success over the years to the resilience of the U.S. economy.“I have been investing for 80 years—more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant—almost enthusiasm—for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America,” Mr. Buffett said in the letter.Mr. Buffett, widely regarded as one of the world’s top investors, has been publishing the letters for more than half a century. Over that time, he hasn’t just reflected on the past year for his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., but also shared his thoughts on everything from esoteric accounting rules to his aversion to excessive risk-taking.Saturday’s letter offered readers a glimpse into how Mr. Buffett, 92, viewed what wound up being a shaky stretch for markets.The volatility offered Berkshire an opportunity to jump in and buy stocks. While Berkshire largely bought back its own shares in 2021, it focused more in 2022 on investing in other companies—opening up new positions in media company Paramount Global and building-materials manufacturer Louisiana-Pacific Corp., among other businesses, and swiftly becoming Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s single biggest shareholder.As of the end of 2022, Berkshire was the largest shareholder of eight companies—American Express Co., Bank of America Corp., Chevron Corp., Coca-Cola Co., HP Inc., Moody’s Corp., Occidental and Paramount Global.“America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true,” Mr. Buffett said.Berkshire also released its results for 2022 on Saturday.The Omaha, Neb., company, which owns businesses including insurer Geico, railroad BNSF Railway and chocolate maker See’s Candies, posted a loss of $22.82 billion for the year, stung by $67.9 billion in investment and derivative contract losses. In 2021, Berkshire posted a profit of $90.8 billion.Total revenue rose 9.4% to $302.1 billion.Berkshire’s operating earnings, which exclude some investment results, rose to a record $30.8 billion.Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive, has long held that operating earnings are a better reflection of how Berkshire is doing, since accounting rules require the company to include unrealized gains and losses from its massive investment portfolio in its net income. Volatile markets can make Berkshire’s net income change substantially from quarter to quarter, regardless of how its underlying businesses are doing.“Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades,” Mr. Buffett said in his letter. “But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors,” he said, adding that he and his right-hand man Charlie Munger urged shareholders to focus instead on Berkshire’s operating earnings, which rose to a record for the full year in 2022.Read the full letter here:To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing the savings of a great number of individuals. We are grateful for their enduring trust, a relationship that often spans much of their adult lifetime. It is those dedicated savers that are forefront in my mind as I write this letter.A common belief is that people choose to save when young, expecting thereby to maintain their living standards after retirement. Any assets that remain at death, this theory says, will usually be left to their families or, possibly, to friends and philanthropy.Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular.The disposition of money unmasks humans. Charlie and I watch with pleasure the vast flow of Berkshire-generated funds to public needs and, alongside, the infrequency with which our shareholders opt for look-at-me assets and dynasty-building.Who wouldn’t enjoy working for shareholders like ours?What We DoCharlie and I allocate your savings at Berkshire between two related forms of ownership. First, we invest in businesses that we control, usually buying 100% of each. Berkshire directs capital allocation at these subsidiaries and selects the CEOs who make day-by-day operating decisions. When large enterprises are being managed, both trust and rules are essential. Berkshire emphasizes the former to an unusual – some would say extreme – degree. Disappointments are inevitable. We are understanding about business mistakes; our tolerance for personal misconduct is zero.In our second category of ownership, we buy publicly-traded stocks through which we passively own pieces of businesses. Holding these investments, we have no say in management.Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.”One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect.Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.* * * * * * * * * * * *At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.)Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire. Let’s take a peek behind the curtain.The Secret SauceIn August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire.The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow.American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase.These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago.Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income.The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.The Past Year in BriefBerkshire had a good year in 2022. The company’s operating earnings – our term for income calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”), exclusive of capital gains or losses from equity holdings – set a record at $30.8 billion. Charlie and I focus on this operational figure and urge you to do so as well. The GAAP figure, absent our adjustment, fluctuates wildly and capriciously at every reporting date. Note its acrobatic behavior in 2022, which is in no way unusual:The GAAP earnings are 100% misleading when viewed quarterly or even annually. Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades. But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors.A second positive development for Berkshire last year was our purchase of Alleghany Corporation, a property-casualty insurer captained by Joe Brandon. I’ve worked with Joe in the past, and he understands both Berkshire  and insurance. Alleghany delivers special value to us because Berkshire’s unmatched financial strength allows its insurance subsidiaries to follow valuable and enduring investment strategies unavailable to virtually all competitors.Aided by Alleghany, our insurance float increased during 2022 from $147 billion to $164 billion. With disciplined underwriting, these funds have a decent chance of being cost-free over time. Since purchasing our first property-casualty insurer in 1967, Berkshire’s float has increased 8,000-fold through acquisitions, operations and innovations. Though not recognized in our financial statements, this float has been an extraordinary asset for Berkshire. New shareholders can get an understanding of its value by reading our annually updated explanation of float on page A-2.* * * * * * * * * * * *A very minor gain in per-share intrinsic value took place in 2022 through Berkshire share repurchases as well as similar moves at Apple and American Express, both significant investees of ours. At Berkshire, we directly increased your interest in our unique collection of businesses by repurchasing 1.2% of the company’s outstanding shares. At Apple and Amex, repurchases increased Berkshire’s ownership a bit without any cost to us.The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases.Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect. Imagine, if you will, three fully-informed shareholders of a local auto dealership, one of whom manages the business. Imagine, further, that one of the passive owners wishes to sell his interest back to the company at a price attractive to the two continuing shareholders. When completed, has this transaction harmed anyone? Is the manager somehow favored over the continuing passive owners? Has the public been hurt?When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive).Almost endless details of Berkshire’s 2022 operations are laid out on pages K-33 – K-66. Charlie and I, along with many Berkshire shareholders, enjoy poring over the many facts and figures laid out in that section. These pages are not, however, required reading. There are many Berkshire centimillionaires and, yes, billionaires who have never studied our financial figures. They simply know that Charlie and I – along with our families and close friends – continue to have very significant investments in Berkshire, and they trust us to treat their money as we do our own.And that is a promise we can make.* * * * * * * * * * * *Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating “expectations” is heralded as a managerial triumph.That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. “Bold imaginative accounting,” as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism.58 Years – and a Few FiguresIn 1965, Berkshire was a one-trick pony, the owner of a venerable – but doomed – New England textile operation. With that business on a death march, Berkshire needed an immediate fresh start. Looking back, I was slow to recognize the severity of its problems.And then came a stroke of good luck: National Indemnity became available in 1967, and we shifted our resources toward insurance and other non-textile operations.Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true.Berkshire now enjoys major ownership in an unmatched collection of huge and diversified businesses. Let’s first look at the 5,000 or so publicly-held companies that trade daily on NASDAQ, the NYSE and related venues. Within this group is housed the members of the S&P 500 Index, an elite collection of large and well-known American companies.In aggregate, the 500 earned $1.8 trillion in 2021. I don’t yet have the final results for 2022. Using, therefore, the 2021 figures, only 128 of the 500 (including Berkshire itself) earned $3 billion or more. Indeed, 23 lost money.At yearend 2022, Berkshire was the largest owner of eight of these giants: American Express, Bank of America, Chevron, Coca-Cola, HP Inc., Moody’s, Occidental Petroleum and Paramount Global.In addition to those eight investees, Berkshire owns 100% of BNSF and 92% of BH Energy, each with earnings that exceed the $3 billion mark noted above ($5.9 billion at BNSF and$4.3 billion at BHE). Were these companies publicly-owned, they would replace two present members of the 500. All told, our ten controlled and non-controlled behemoths leave Berkshire more broadly aligned with the country’s economic future than is the case at any other U.S. company. (This calculation leaves aside “fiduciary” operations such as pension funds and investment companies.) In addition, Berkshire’s insurance operation, though conducted through many individually-managed subsidiaries, has a value comparable to BNSF or BHE.As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money. And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings.At Berkshire, there will be no finish line.Some Surprising Facts About Federal TaxesDuring the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion.Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless. Our job is to manage Berkshire’s operations and finances in a manner that will achieve an acceptable result over time and that will preserve the company’s unmatched staying power when financial panics or severe worldwide recessions occur. Berkshire also offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences.The $32 trillion of revenue was garnered by the Treasury through individual income taxes (48%), social security and related receipts (3412%), corporate income tax payments (812%) and a wide variety of lesser levies. Berkshire’s contribution via the corporate income tax was $32 billion during the decade, almost exactly a tenth of 1% of all money that the Treasury collected.And that means – brace yourself – had there been roughly 1,000 taxpayers in the U.S. matching Berkshire’s payments, no other businesses nor any of the country’s 131 million households would have needed to pay any taxes to the federal government. Not a dime.* * * * * * * * * * * *Millions, billions, trillions – we all know the words, but the sums involved are almost impossible to comprehend. Let’s put physical dimensions to the numbers:- If you convert $1 million into newly-printed $100 bills, you will have a stack that reaches your chest.- Perform the same exercise with $1 billion – this is getting exciting! – and the stack reaches about 34 of a mile into the sky.- Finally, imagine piling up $32 billion, the total of Berkshire’s 2012-21 federal income tax payments. Now the stack grows to more than 21 miles in height, about three times the level at which commercial airplanes usually cruise.When it comes to federal taxes, individuals who own Berkshire can unequivocally state “I gave at the office.”* * * * * * * * * * * *At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned.I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.Nothing Beats Having a Great PartnerCharlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated.Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:- The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.- If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.- All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.- If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.- Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.- You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.- Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.- A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.- Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.- Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.- There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.- You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.- You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.- Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.- Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.”And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh.* * * * * * * * * * * *I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own:   Find   a   very   smart   high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.A Family Gathering in OmahaCharlie and I are shameless. Last year, at our first shareholder get-together in three years, we greeted you with our usual commercial hustle.From the opening bell, we went straight for your wallet. In short order, our See’s kiosk sold you eleven tons of nourishing peanut brittle and chocolates. In our P.T. Barnum pitch, we promised you longevity. After all, what else but candy from See’s could account for Charlie and me making it to 99 and 92?I know you can’t wait to hear the specifics of last year’s hustle.On Friday, the doors were open from noon until 5 p.m., and our candy counters rang up 2,690 individual sales. On Saturday, See’s registered an additional 3,931 transactions between 7 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., despite the fact that 612 of the 912 operating hours occurred while our movie and the question-and-answer session were limiting commercial traffic.Do the math: See’s rang up about 10 sales per minute during its prime operating time (racking up $400,309 of volume during the two days), with all the goods purchased at a single location selling products that haven’t been materially altered in 101 years. What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now.* * * * * * * * * * * *Charlie, I, and the entire Berkshire bunch look forward to seeing you in Omaha on May 5-6. We will have a good time and so will you.February 25, 2023 Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957218669,"gmtCreate":1677282588451,"gmtModify":1677282591811,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957218669","repostId":"2314343613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2314343613","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1677280410,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2314343613?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-25 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Further Fed Hikes Expected After Data Dashes \"Disinflation\" Hopes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2314343613","media":"Reuters","summary":"Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them ele","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them elevated longer than previously projected rose on Friday after data showed a key inflation gauge accelerated last month.</p><p>Even so, Fed policymakers speaking on Friday did not push for a return to the kind of aggressive action that marked last year&#39;s interest-rate hikes, suggesting that for now central bankers are content to stick to a gradual tightening path despite signs that inflation is not cooling as they had hoped.</p><p>The Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the metric by which the Fed measures its 2% inflation target, rose 5.4% last month from a year earlier, a pickup from an upwardly revised 5.3% annual pace in December.</p><p>Underlying &#34;core&#34; inflation climbed a faster-than-expected 4.7% from a year earlier, compared to December&#39;s upwardly revised 4.6% pace.</p><p>The report &#34;is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us,&#34; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in New York. &#34;It&#39;s going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%.&#34;</p><p>Even so, Mester -- who had wanted a half-point hike at the Fed&#39;s last meeting -- said she could not yet say if she would support such a large hike at the Fed&#39;s upcoming meeting.</p><p>She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Earlier on Friday she said she had not revised her view.</p><p>Similarly, none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke on Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said more rate hikes will be needed, but did not specify a particular stopping point.</p><p>Implied yields on federal funds futures contracts rose on Friday as traders firmed up expectations for at least three more rate hikes through June, a path that would push the U.S. central bank&#39;s benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range.</p><p>Pricing also now puts about a 40% chance of an even higher stopping point for that rate, up from about 30% prior to the release of the PCE data.</p><p>And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts toward the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%.</p><p>&#34;There are inflationary pressures in the economy, the level of inflation is still too high, and it&#39;s going to take more on the monetary policy side to get inflation down, Mester said.</p><p>Economic data in recent weeks has generally come in stronger than expected, with job growth still robust and wage gains exceeding what Fed Governor Phillip Jefferson said on Friday was consistent with a timely return to 2% inflation.</p><p>Revisions to data from prior months in Friday&#39;s Commerce Department report showed inflation did not cool in November and December as much as had been thought, and spending in January rose more than expected even as the savings rate increased.</p><p>All told, the economic readings may throw doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s assessment this month that the &#34;disinflationary process&#34; had begun, a view that seemed to justify the central bank&#39;s decision at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting to deliver a quarter-percentage-point rate increase after a string of bigger hikes in 2022.</p><p>&#34;If the Fed had this data at the last meeting, they probably would&#39;ve raised by 50 (basis points) and the tone from the press conference would&#39;ve been a lot different,&#34; said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.</p><p>Goldman said he expects the next round of Fed projections, to be published in March, to signal rates will rise father and stay there longer than previously thought.</p><p>&#34;It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive,&#34; said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>. &#34;They will probably overdo it, in our view, and that will eventually lead to a recession; the question is more like when, not whether, it will be a recession.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Further Fed Hikes Expected After Data Dashes \"Disinflation\" Hopes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFurther Fed Hikes Expected After Data Dashes \"Disinflation\" Hopes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-25 07:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them elevated longer than previously projected rose on Friday after data showed a key inflation gauge accelerated last month.</p><p>Even so, Fed policymakers speaking on Friday did not push for a return to the kind of aggressive action that marked last year&#39;s interest-rate hikes, suggesting that for now central bankers are content to stick to a gradual tightening path despite signs that inflation is not cooling as they had hoped.</p><p>The Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the metric by which the Fed measures its 2% inflation target, rose 5.4% last month from a year earlier, a pickup from an upwardly revised 5.3% annual pace in December.</p><p>Underlying &#34;core&#34; inflation climbed a faster-than-expected 4.7% from a year earlier, compared to December&#39;s upwardly revised 4.6% pace.</p><p>The report &#34;is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us,&#34; Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in New York. &#34;It&#39;s going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%.&#34;</p><p>Even so, Mester -- who had wanted a half-point hike at the Fed&#39;s last meeting -- said she could not yet say if she would support such a large hike at the Fed&#39;s upcoming meeting.</p><p>She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Earlier on Friday she said she had not revised her view.</p><p>Similarly, none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke on Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said more rate hikes will be needed, but did not specify a particular stopping point.</p><p>Implied yields on federal funds futures contracts rose on Friday as traders firmed up expectations for at least three more rate hikes through June, a path that would push the U.S. central bank&#39;s benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range.</p><p>Pricing also now puts about a 40% chance of an even higher stopping point for that rate, up from about 30% prior to the release of the PCE data.</p><p>And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts toward the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%.</p><p>&#34;There are inflationary pressures in the economy, the level of inflation is still too high, and it&#39;s going to take more on the monetary policy side to get inflation down, Mester said.</p><p>Economic data in recent weeks has generally come in stronger than expected, with job growth still robust and wage gains exceeding what Fed Governor Phillip Jefferson said on Friday was consistent with a timely return to 2% inflation.</p><p>Revisions to data from prior months in Friday&#39;s Commerce Department report showed inflation did not cool in November and December as much as had been thought, and spending in January rose more than expected even as the savings rate increased.</p><p>All told, the economic readings may throw doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s assessment this month that the &#34;disinflationary process&#34; had begun, a view that seemed to justify the central bank&#39;s decision at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting to deliver a quarter-percentage-point rate increase after a string of bigger hikes in 2022.</p><p>&#34;If the Fed had this data at the last meeting, they probably would&#39;ve raised by 50 (basis points) and the tone from the press conference would&#39;ve been a lot different,&#34; said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.</p><p>Goldman said he expects the next round of Fed projections, to be published in March, to signal rates will rise father and stay there longer than previously thought.</p><p>&#34;It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive,&#34; said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNPQF\">BNP Paribas</a>. &#34;They will probably overdo it, in our view, and that will eventually lead to a recession; the question is more like when, not whether, it will be a recession.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2314343613","content_text":"Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to push interest rates higher and keep them elevated longer than previously projected rose on Friday after data showed a key inflation gauge accelerated last month.Even so, Fed policymakers speaking on Friday did not push for a return to the kind of aggressive action that marked last year's interest-rate hikes, suggesting that for now central bankers are content to stick to a gradual tightening path despite signs that inflation is not cooling as they had hoped.The Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the metric by which the Fed measures its 2% inflation target, rose 5.4% last month from a year earlier, a pickup from an upwardly revised 5.3% annual pace in December.Underlying \"core\" inflation climbed a faster-than-expected 4.7% from a year earlier, compared to December's upwardly revised 4.6% pace.The report \"is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us,\" Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in New York. \"It's going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%.\"Even so, Mester -- who had wanted a half-point hike at the Fed's last meeting -- said she could not yet say if she would support such a large hike at the Fed's upcoming meeting.She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Earlier on Friday she said she had not revised her view.Similarly, none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke on Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said more rate hikes will be needed, but did not specify a particular stopping point.Implied yields on federal funds futures contracts rose on Friday as traders firmed up expectations for at least three more rate hikes through June, a path that would push the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, from the current 4.50%-4.75% range.Pricing also now puts about a 40% chance of an even higher stopping point for that rate, up from about 30% prior to the release of the PCE data.And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts toward the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%.\"There are inflationary pressures in the economy, the level of inflation is still too high, and it's going to take more on the monetary policy side to get inflation down, Mester said.Economic data in recent weeks has generally come in stronger than expected, with job growth still robust and wage gains exceeding what Fed Governor Phillip Jefferson said on Friday was consistent with a timely return to 2% inflation.Revisions to data from prior months in Friday's Commerce Department report showed inflation did not cool in November and December as much as had been thought, and spending in January rose more than expected even as the savings rate increased.All told, the economic readings may throw doubt on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's assessment this month that the \"disinflationary process\" had begun, a view that seemed to justify the central bank's decision at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting to deliver a quarter-percentage-point rate increase after a string of bigger hikes in 2022.\"If the Fed had this data at the last meeting, they probably would've raised by 50 (basis points) and the tone from the press conference would've been a lot different,\" said Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.Goldman said he expects the next round of Fed projections, to be published in March, to signal rates will rise father and stay there longer than previously thought.\"It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive,\" said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas. \"They will probably overdo it, in our view, and that will eventually lead to a recession; the question is more like when, not whether, it will be a recession.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9962832345,"gmtCreate":1669758284487,"gmtModify":1676538235562,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sweet game","listText":"Sweet game","text":"Sweet game","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962832345","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966242402,"gmtCreate":1669584876007,"gmtModify":1676538208307,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966242402","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110767793?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966369811,"gmtCreate":1669422718333,"gmtModify":1676538194822,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966369811","repostId":"2286262317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2286262317","pubTimestamp":1669420351,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2286262317?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-26 07:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Settlement With EU Antitrust Regulators Possible By Year End","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286262317","media":"Reuters","summary":"U.S. online retail giant Amazon may be able to end two EU antitrust investigations by the end of the","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. online retail giant Amazon may be able to end two EU antitrust investigations by the end of the year after tweaking concessions to address concerns over its use of sellers&#39; data, two people familiar with the matter said on Friday.</p><p>Settling the EU investigations means the company will avoid a fine of as much as 10% of its global turnover.</p><p>Faced with charges of using its size, power and data to push its own products to gain an unfair advantage over rival merchants that also use its platform, Amazon in July offered to refrain from using sellers&#39; data for its own competing retail business and its private label products.</p><p>The European Commission then sought feedback from rivals and customers and subsequently said the company needed to improve its concession.</p><p>Amazon has increased the range of data which it cannot use, one of the people said.</p><p>&#34;It is possible an EU decision will come by the end of the year,&#34; the person said.</p><p>The EU competition enforcer declined to comment.</p><p>Asked for comment, Amazon reiterated that it had engaged constructively with the Commission to address their concerns.</p><p>The company&#39;s other concession is equal treatment of sellers when ranking their offers for the &#34;buy box&#34; on its website that generates the bulk of its sales.</p><p>It has offered to set up a second buy box for a rival product if it differs substantially in price and delivery from the product in the first box.</p><p>Bloomberg was the first to report the possibility of an EU decision by the end of the year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Settlement With EU Antitrust Regulators Possible By Year End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Settlement With EU Antitrust Regulators Possible By Year End\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-26 07:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-amazon-settlement-eu-antitrust-194217350.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. online retail giant Amazon may be able to end two EU antitrust investigations by the end of the year after tweaking concessions to address concerns over its use of sellers' data, two people ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-amazon-settlement-eu-antitrust-194217350.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-amazon-settlement-eu-antitrust-194217350.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286262317","content_text":"U.S. online retail giant Amazon may be able to end two EU antitrust investigations by the end of the year after tweaking concessions to address concerns over its use of sellers' data, two people familiar with the matter said on Friday.Settling the EU investigations means the company will avoid a fine of as much as 10% of its global turnover.Faced with charges of using its size, power and data to push its own products to gain an unfair advantage over rival merchants that also use its platform, Amazon in July offered to refrain from using sellers' data for its own competing retail business and its private label products.The European Commission then sought feedback from rivals and customers and subsequently said the company needed to improve its concession.Amazon has increased the range of data which it cannot use, one of the people said.\"It is possible an EU decision will come by the end of the year,\" the person said.The EU competition enforcer declined to comment.Asked for comment, Amazon reiterated that it had engaged constructively with the Commission to address their concerns.The company's other concession is equal treatment of sellers when ranking their offers for the \"buy box\" on its website that generates the bulk of its sales.It has offered to set up a second buy box for a rival product if it differs substantially in price and delivery from the product in the first box.Bloomberg was the first to report the possibility of an EU decision by the end of the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961768634,"gmtCreate":1669066168329,"gmtModify":1676538145181,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961768634","repostId":"1103039715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103039715","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1669043830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103039715?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-21 23:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top Calls on Wall Street: Disney, Amazon, Microsoft, Nio, Intel, Coinbase and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103039715","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Here are Monday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:MoffettNathanson upgrades Disney to outperform from m","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Here are Monday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:</p><h2>MoffettNathanson upgrades Disney to outperform from market perform</h2><p>Moffett upgraded Disney shares after the entertainment giant announced it was bringing back former CEO Bob Iger.</p><blockquote>“We applaudDisney’s Board for the courage to make this change.”</blockquote><h2>Loop downgrades Workday to hold from buy</h2><p>Loop said it’s concerned about slowing growth for the the human capital software company.</p><blockquote>“Our most recent checks indicate that its core HCM (human capital management) business is slowing, which we believe could lead the company to issue a conservative 24-month subscription revenue growth guidance for next year (FY24) that could be well below our/Street estimate of 20%.”</blockquote><h2>JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as top idea</h2><p>JPMorgan said the e-commerce giant is well positioned heading into the holiday season.</p><blockquote>“AMZN remains our best idea, but of course it is also subject to macro headwinds, as evident in the company’s 4Q revenue outlook.”</blockquote><h2>JPMorgan names Target and Costco top holiday picks</h2><p>JPMorgan said Target and Costco are well positioned heading into the holiday shopping season.</p><blockquote>“Third, from a category perspective, we see festive apparel (not athletic) and beauty (TGT, ULTA) as the biggest winners along with food (BJ, COST, TGT, WMT) driven by inflation and the ongoing shift back to experiences (entertaining and travel) vs. goods wallet normalization, as we’ve long discussed.”</blockquote><h2>Raymond James upgrades Comerica to outperform from market perform</h2><p>Raymond James said the bank is well positioned for a recession.</p><blockquote>“We are upgrading CMA shares to Outperform and establishing an $85 price target following the recent selloff in the stock post earnings juxtaposed with its relatively solid fundamental positioning heading into a potential recession.”</blockquote><h2>Wells Fargo upgrades Silvergate to equal weight from underweight</h2><p>Wells said shares are at a “fundamental floor.”</p><blockquote>“Our downside scenario played out faster than expected, and crypto winter has morphed into an existential question of survival. This is difficult for SI, as all current and future growth engines are essentially on hold.”</blockquote><h2>Goldman Sachs upgrades On Holding to buy from neutral</h2><p>Goldman said the footwear and sports apparel company has an “attractive business model.”</p><blockquote>“We expect On’s strong product proposition centred on innovation to drive continued rapid growth and best-in-class gross margins.”</blockquote><h2>Raymond James downgrades Cigna and UnitedHealth to outperform from strong buy</h2><p>Raymond James downgraded several insurers on Monday and said it still likes the stocks but that it sees some near-term headwinds.</p><blockquote>“While we are moving our ratings on UNH and CI down a notch, we remain generally constructive on these names. In the case of CI, we note the relatively low exposure to MA (medicare advantage) and continued strong performance of the PBM with 2023 upside from biosimilars. In the case of UNH, we note the offsets from its diverse revenue streams, the tail effect from $20B of YTD M&amp;A, and some offset from its fee for service exposure in Optum Health.”</blockquote><h2>Argus downgrades Carvana to sell from hold</h2><p>Argus said in its downgrade of the used car company that it thinks Carvana will struggle to be profitable.</p><blockquote>“Carvana appears to have lost some of its competitive advantage as many traditional dealerships have expanded online sales.”</blockquote><h2>UBS initiates American Express as neutral</h2><p>UBS said American Express has “limited upside potential.”</p><blockquote>“But, we think consumer-sensitive stocks like AXP may have limited absolute upside potential as investors anticipate a recession, and deteriorating credit drives our ’23E EPS 12% below consensus, and our ’24E is 11% below.”</blockquote><h2>Morgan Stanley initiates Las Vegas Sands as overweight and names DraftKings as a top pick</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said in its initiation of Las Vegas Sands that it sees an attractive risk/reward. After a change in analyst coverage, the firm also called DraftKings a top “secular growth story.”</p><blockquote>“DraftKings (DKNG.O, Top Pick - 34% Upside): Best Secular Growth Story Poised for Profit Inflection. Las Vegas Sands (LVS.N - 11% Upside): Leader in Macau Mass + best balance sheet = attractive risk-reward.”</blockquote><h2>Goldman Sachs initiates Mobileye as buy</h2><p>Goldman says the autonomous vehicle company is a market leader in the race to autonomous vehicle technology.</p><blockquote>“We believe that Mobileye is the leading auto tech enabler for ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) and AV (autonomous vehicle) applications, and we view the company as well positioned for growth given its vision/AI capabilities that are applicable for both ADAS and AVs, its ability to provide full solutions, and its strong market share.”</blockquote><h2>Morgan Stanley downgrades MongoDB to equal weight from overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said in its downgrade of the database platform company that it’s concerned about slowing growth for MongoDB.</p><blockquote>“While still a favorite LT growth story, a challenging spend environment will likely weigh on growth for the next few quarters resulting in FY24 cons expectations that may be too high.”</blockquote><h2>Cowen downgrades Intel to market perform from outperform</h2><p>Cowen reinstated coverage of Intel and downgraded the stock, saying it sees “tough fundamentals.”</p><blockquote>“Reinstating At Market Perform As Tough Fundamentals In 2023/24 To Be Offset By A Protected Dividend, Opportunities In 2025.”</blockquote><h2>Barclays downgrades RH and Williams-Sonoma to equal weight from overweight</h2><p>Barclays said in its downgrade of the stocks’ that it’s concerned about a “weakening housing cycle.”</p><blockquote>“We are downgrading both WSM and RH on a weakening housing cycle that we believe will have a trickle-down impact on home furnishing spending over the next 12 to 24 months and high-end wallet pressure.</blockquote><h2>UBS reiterates Microsoft as buy</h2><p>UBS said it likes that Microsoft is relying on price increases to drive greater revenue.</p><p>“Combined with the big O365/M365 (and other) price increases earlier this year, Microsoft is now clearly leaning far more heavily on price as a revs driver than it has in many years.”</p><h2>JPMorgan reiterates Charles Schwab as overweight</h2><p>JPMorgan said Charles Schwab is well positioned as one of the biggest “distributors of third-party mutual funds.”</p><blockquote>“We see Schwab continuing to better monetize its platform, leveraging its position as one of the largest distributors of third-party mutual funds.”</blockquote><h2>Deutsche Bank reiterates Nio</h2><p>Deutsche said it thinks the worst operational issues for Nio may be over.</p><blockquote>“NIO continues to frustrate us/investors with another round of operational issues which are holding back volume in 4Q but we are optimistic that the worse may finally be over, further supported by the government’s gradual pivot away from COVID zero.”</blockquote><h2>Morgan Stanley upgrades Restaurant Brands to equal weight from underweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said it likes that the owner of brands such as Burger King appointed the former Domino’s CEO as executive chairman.</p><blockquote>“We are upgrading the shares of QSR to EW, PT to $71; the appointment of Patrick Doyle, former CEO of DPZ, as executive chairman is the catalyst.”</blockquote><h2>Cowen reiterates Coinbase as outperform</h2><p>Cowen said trading volumes for the crypto company remain “above pre-FTX turmoil levels.”</p><blockquote>“An updated analysis suggests COIN avg. daily spot trading volumes remain above pre-FTX turmoil levels, albeit at a smaller margin than our prior analysis from 11/14.”</blockquote><h2>Goldman Sachs reiterates Salesforce as buy</h2><p>Goldman Sachs said it’s bullish heading into Salesforce earnings next week.</p><blockquote>“Adjusting estimates to reﬂect trough top-line growth in FY24; remain constructive on path to proﬁtability.”</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Calls on Wall Street: Disney, Amazon, Microsoft, Nio, Intel, Coinbase and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Calls on Wall Street: Disney, Amazon, Microsoft, Nio, Intel, Coinbase and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-21 23:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Here are Monday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:</p><h2>MoffettNathanson upgrades Disney to outperform from market perform</h2><p>Moffett upgraded Disney shares after the entertainment giant announced it was bringing back former CEO Bob Iger.</p><blockquote>“We applaudDisney’s Board for the courage to make this change.”</blockquote><h2>Loop downgrades Workday to hold from buy</h2><p>Loop said it’s concerned about slowing growth for the the human capital software company.</p><blockquote>“Our most recent checks indicate that its core HCM (human capital management) business is slowing, which we believe could lead the company to issue a conservative 24-month subscription revenue growth guidance for next year (FY24) that could be well below our/Street estimate of 20%.”</blockquote><h2>JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as top idea</h2><p>JPMorgan said the e-commerce giant is well positioned heading into the holiday season.</p><blockquote>“AMZN remains our best idea, but of course it is also subject to macro headwinds, as evident in the company’s 4Q revenue outlook.”</blockquote><h2>JPMorgan names Target and Costco top holiday picks</h2><p>JPMorgan said Target and Costco are well positioned heading into the holiday shopping season.</p><blockquote>“Third, from a category perspective, we see festive apparel (not athletic) and beauty (TGT, ULTA) as the biggest winners along with food (BJ, COST, TGT, WMT) driven by inflation and the ongoing shift back to experiences (entertaining and travel) vs. goods wallet normalization, as we’ve long discussed.”</blockquote><h2>Raymond James upgrades Comerica to outperform from market perform</h2><p>Raymond James said the bank is well positioned for a recession.</p><blockquote>“We are upgrading CMA shares to Outperform and establishing an $85 price target following the recent selloff in the stock post earnings juxtaposed with its relatively solid fundamental positioning heading into a potential recession.”</blockquote><h2>Wells Fargo upgrades Silvergate to equal weight from underweight</h2><p>Wells said shares are at a “fundamental floor.”</p><blockquote>“Our downside scenario played out faster than expected, and crypto winter has morphed into an existential question of survival. This is difficult for SI, as all current and future growth engines are essentially on hold.”</blockquote><h2>Goldman Sachs upgrades On Holding to buy from neutral</h2><p>Goldman said the footwear and sports apparel company has an “attractive business model.”</p><blockquote>“We expect On’s strong product proposition centred on innovation to drive continued rapid growth and best-in-class gross margins.”</blockquote><h2>Raymond James downgrades Cigna and UnitedHealth to outperform from strong buy</h2><p>Raymond James downgraded several insurers on Monday and said it still likes the stocks but that it sees some near-term headwinds.</p><blockquote>“While we are moving our ratings on UNH and CI down a notch, we remain generally constructive on these names. In the case of CI, we note the relatively low exposure to MA (medicare advantage) and continued strong performance of the PBM with 2023 upside from biosimilars. In the case of UNH, we note the offsets from its diverse revenue streams, the tail effect from $20B of YTD M&amp;A, and some offset from its fee for service exposure in Optum Health.”</blockquote><h2>Argus downgrades Carvana to sell from hold</h2><p>Argus said in its downgrade of the used car company that it thinks Carvana will struggle to be profitable.</p><blockquote>“Carvana appears to have lost some of its competitive advantage as many traditional dealerships have expanded online sales.”</blockquote><h2>UBS initiates American Express as neutral</h2><p>UBS said American Express has “limited upside potential.”</p><blockquote>“But, we think consumer-sensitive stocks like AXP may have limited absolute upside potential as investors anticipate a recession, and deteriorating credit drives our ’23E EPS 12% below consensus, and our ’24E is 11% below.”</blockquote><h2>Morgan Stanley initiates Las Vegas Sands as overweight and names DraftKings as a top pick</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said in its initiation of Las Vegas Sands that it sees an attractive risk/reward. After a change in analyst coverage, the firm also called DraftKings a top “secular growth story.”</p><blockquote>“DraftKings (DKNG.O, Top Pick - 34% Upside): Best Secular Growth Story Poised for Profit Inflection. Las Vegas Sands (LVS.N - 11% Upside): Leader in Macau Mass + best balance sheet = attractive risk-reward.”</blockquote><h2>Goldman Sachs initiates Mobileye as buy</h2><p>Goldman says the autonomous vehicle company is a market leader in the race to autonomous vehicle technology.</p><blockquote>“We believe that Mobileye is the leading auto tech enabler for ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) and AV (autonomous vehicle) applications, and we view the company as well positioned for growth given its vision/AI capabilities that are applicable for both ADAS and AVs, its ability to provide full solutions, and its strong market share.”</blockquote><h2>Morgan Stanley downgrades MongoDB to equal weight from overweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said in its downgrade of the database platform company that it’s concerned about slowing growth for MongoDB.</p><blockquote>“While still a favorite LT growth story, a challenging spend environment will likely weigh on growth for the next few quarters resulting in FY24 cons expectations that may be too high.”</blockquote><h2>Cowen downgrades Intel to market perform from outperform</h2><p>Cowen reinstated coverage of Intel and downgraded the stock, saying it sees “tough fundamentals.”</p><blockquote>“Reinstating At Market Perform As Tough Fundamentals In 2023/24 To Be Offset By A Protected Dividend, Opportunities In 2025.”</blockquote><h2>Barclays downgrades RH and Williams-Sonoma to equal weight from overweight</h2><p>Barclays said in its downgrade of the stocks’ that it’s concerned about a “weakening housing cycle.”</p><blockquote>“We are downgrading both WSM and RH on a weakening housing cycle that we believe will have a trickle-down impact on home furnishing spending over the next 12 to 24 months and high-end wallet pressure.</blockquote><h2>UBS reiterates Microsoft as buy</h2><p>UBS said it likes that Microsoft is relying on price increases to drive greater revenue.</p><p>“Combined with the big O365/M365 (and other) price increases earlier this year, Microsoft is now clearly leaning far more heavily on price as a revs driver than it has in many years.”</p><h2>JPMorgan reiterates Charles Schwab as overweight</h2><p>JPMorgan said Charles Schwab is well positioned as one of the biggest “distributors of third-party mutual funds.”</p><blockquote>“We see Schwab continuing to better monetize its platform, leveraging its position as one of the largest distributors of third-party mutual funds.”</blockquote><h2>Deutsche Bank reiterates Nio</h2><p>Deutsche said it thinks the worst operational issues for Nio may be over.</p><blockquote>“NIO continues to frustrate us/investors with another round of operational issues which are holding back volume in 4Q but we are optimistic that the worse may finally be over, further supported by the government’s gradual pivot away from COVID zero.”</blockquote><h2>Morgan Stanley upgrades Restaurant Brands to equal weight from underweight</h2><p>Morgan Stanley said it likes that the owner of brands such as Burger King appointed the former Domino’s CEO as executive chairman.</p><blockquote>“We are upgrading the shares of QSR to EW, PT to $71; the appointment of Patrick Doyle, former CEO of DPZ, as executive chairman is the catalyst.”</blockquote><h2>Cowen reiterates Coinbase as outperform</h2><p>Cowen said trading volumes for the crypto company remain “above pre-FTX turmoil levels.”</p><blockquote>“An updated analysis suggests COIN avg. daily spot trading volumes remain above pre-FTX turmoil levels, albeit at a smaller margin than our prior analysis from 11/14.”</blockquote><h2>Goldman Sachs reiterates Salesforce as buy</h2><p>Goldman Sachs said it’s bullish heading into Salesforce earnings next week.</p><blockquote>“Adjusting estimates to reﬂect trough top-line growth in FY24; remain constructive on path to proﬁtability.”</blockquote></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RSTRF":"Restaurant Brands International  Limited Partnership","SCHW":"嘉信理财","AMZN":"亚马逊","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","CMA":"联信银行","CRM":"赛富时","TGT":"塔吉特","MDB":"MongoDB Inc.","LVS":"金沙集团","ONON":"On Holding AG","UNH":"联合健康","NIO":"蔚来","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","MBLY":"Mobileye Global Inc.","DIS":"迪士尼","RH":"Restoration Hardware Holdings","WSM":"Williams-Sonoma Inc","WDAY":"Workday","MSFT":"微软","AXP":"美国运通","CVNA":"Carvana Co.","COST":"好市多","CI":"信诺保险","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103039715","content_text":"Here are Monday’s biggest calls on Wall Street:MoffettNathanson upgrades Disney to outperform from market performMoffett upgraded Disney shares after the entertainment giant announced it was bringing back former CEO Bob Iger.“We applaudDisney’s Board for the courage to make this change.”Loop downgrades Workday to hold from buyLoop said it’s concerned about slowing growth for the the human capital software company.“Our most recent checks indicate that its core HCM (human capital management) business is slowing, which we believe could lead the company to issue a conservative 24-month subscription revenue growth guidance for next year (FY24) that could be well below our/Street estimate of 20%.”JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as top ideaJPMorgan said the e-commerce giant is well positioned heading into the holiday season.“AMZN remains our best idea, but of course it is also subject to macro headwinds, as evident in the company’s 4Q revenue outlook.”JPMorgan names Target and Costco top holiday picksJPMorgan said Target and Costco are well positioned heading into the holiday shopping season.“Third, from a category perspective, we see festive apparel (not athletic) and beauty (TGT, ULTA) as the biggest winners along with food (BJ, COST, TGT, WMT) driven by inflation and the ongoing shift back to experiences (entertaining and travel) vs. goods wallet normalization, as we’ve long discussed.”Raymond James upgrades Comerica to outperform from market performRaymond James said the bank is well positioned for a recession.“We are upgrading CMA shares to Outperform and establishing an $85 price target following the recent selloff in the stock post earnings juxtaposed with its relatively solid fundamental positioning heading into a potential recession.”Wells Fargo upgrades Silvergate to equal weight from underweightWells said shares are at a “fundamental floor.”“Our downside scenario played out faster than expected, and crypto winter has morphed into an existential question of survival. This is difficult for SI, as all current and future growth engines are essentially on hold.”Goldman Sachs upgrades On Holding to buy from neutralGoldman said the footwear and sports apparel company has an “attractive business model.”“We expect On’s strong product proposition centred on innovation to drive continued rapid growth and best-in-class gross margins.”Raymond James downgrades Cigna and UnitedHealth to outperform from strong buyRaymond James downgraded several insurers on Monday and said it still likes the stocks but that it sees some near-term headwinds.“While we are moving our ratings on UNH and CI down a notch, we remain generally constructive on these names. In the case of CI, we note the relatively low exposure to MA (medicare advantage) and continued strong performance of the PBM with 2023 upside from biosimilars. In the case of UNH, we note the offsets from its diverse revenue streams, the tail effect from $20B of YTD M&A, and some offset from its fee for service exposure in Optum Health.”Argus downgrades Carvana to sell from holdArgus said in its downgrade of the used car company that it thinks Carvana will struggle to be profitable.“Carvana appears to have lost some of its competitive advantage as many traditional dealerships have expanded online sales.”UBS initiates American Express as neutralUBS said American Express has “limited upside potential.”“But, we think consumer-sensitive stocks like AXP may have limited absolute upside potential as investors anticipate a recession, and deteriorating credit drives our ’23E EPS 12% below consensus, and our ’24E is 11% below.”Morgan Stanley initiates Las Vegas Sands as overweight and names DraftKings as a top pickMorgan Stanley said in its initiation of Las Vegas Sands that it sees an attractive risk/reward. After a change in analyst coverage, the firm also called DraftKings a top “secular growth story.”“DraftKings (DKNG.O, Top Pick - 34% Upside): Best Secular Growth Story Poised for Profit Inflection. Las Vegas Sands (LVS.N - 11% Upside): Leader in Macau Mass + best balance sheet = attractive risk-reward.”Goldman Sachs initiates Mobileye as buyGoldman says the autonomous vehicle company is a market leader in the race to autonomous vehicle technology.“We believe that Mobileye is the leading auto tech enabler for ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) and AV (autonomous vehicle) applications, and we view the company as well positioned for growth given its vision/AI capabilities that are applicable for both ADAS and AVs, its ability to provide full solutions, and its strong market share.”Morgan Stanley downgrades MongoDB to equal weight from overweightMorgan Stanley said in its downgrade of the database platform company that it’s concerned about slowing growth for MongoDB.“While still a favorite LT growth story, a challenging spend environment will likely weigh on growth for the next few quarters resulting in FY24 cons expectations that may be too high.”Cowen downgrades Intel to market perform from outperformCowen reinstated coverage of Intel and downgraded the stock, saying it sees “tough fundamentals.”“Reinstating At Market Perform As Tough Fundamentals In 2023/24 To Be Offset By A Protected Dividend, Opportunities In 2025.”Barclays downgrades RH and Williams-Sonoma to equal weight from overweightBarclays said in its downgrade of the stocks’ that it’s concerned about a “weakening housing cycle.”“We are downgrading both WSM and RH on a weakening housing cycle that we believe will have a trickle-down impact on home furnishing spending over the next 12 to 24 months and high-end wallet pressure.UBS reiterates Microsoft as buyUBS said it likes that Microsoft is relying on price increases to drive greater revenue.“Combined with the big O365/M365 (and other) price increases earlier this year, Microsoft is now clearly leaning far more heavily on price as a revs driver than it has in many years.”JPMorgan reiterates Charles Schwab as overweightJPMorgan said Charles Schwab is well positioned as one of the biggest “distributors of third-party mutual funds.”“We see Schwab continuing to better monetize its platform, leveraging its position as one of the largest distributors of third-party mutual funds.”Deutsche Bank reiterates NioDeutsche said it thinks the worst operational issues for Nio may be over.“NIO continues to frustrate us/investors with another round of operational issues which are holding back volume in 4Q but we are optimistic that the worse may finally be over, further supported by the government’s gradual pivot away from COVID zero.”Morgan Stanley upgrades Restaurant Brands to equal weight from underweightMorgan Stanley said it likes that the owner of brands such as Burger King appointed the former Domino’s CEO as executive chairman.“We are upgrading the shares of QSR to EW, PT to $71; the appointment of Patrick Doyle, former CEO of DPZ, as executive chairman is the catalyst.”Cowen reiterates Coinbase as outperformCowen said trading volumes for the crypto company remain “above pre-FTX turmoil levels.”“An updated analysis suggests COIN avg. daily spot trading volumes remain above pre-FTX turmoil levels, albeit at a smaller margin than our prior analysis from 11/14.”Goldman Sachs reiterates Salesforce as buyGoldman Sachs said it’s bullish heading into Salesforce earnings next week.“Adjusting estimates to reﬂect trough top-line growth in FY24; remain constructive on path to proﬁtability.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961545930,"gmtCreate":1669003065620,"gmtModify":1676538137966,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961545930","repostId":"1117170787","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117170787","pubTimestamp":1669002303,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117170787?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-21 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117170787","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.</li><li>The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.</li><li>Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.</li></ul><p>It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market&#39;s celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.</p><p>Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn&#39;t going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.</p><p>St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.</p><p>The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.</p><p>If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.</p><p><b>VIX Positioning</b></p><p>Additionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed&#39;s Summary of Economic Projections and the committee&#39;s dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.</p><p>In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market&#39;s perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&amp;P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb742a0f644a317b0c584c79d197735\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p><b>Rates And The Dollar</b></p><p>The bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085a10f01649229138206ef78793ac66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>The view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.</p><p>Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b54ba9843396edf02be5023d2da16\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p><b>Fall Back Plan</b></p><p>Just in case the market doesn&#39;t respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.</p><p>This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell&#39;s chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.</p><p>The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 11:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.Fed board members appear to think rates may head ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117170787","content_text":"SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn't going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.VIX PositioningAdditionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.TradingViewRates And The DollarThe bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.BloombergThe view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.TradingViewFall Back PlanJust in case the market doesn't respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell's chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960708580,"gmtCreate":1668240655940,"gmtModify":1676538033480,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960708580","repostId":"1190456060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190456060","pubTimestamp":1668302284,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190456060?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-13 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190456060","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF  that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday  - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean?","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Large 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.</li><li>Major bottoms require a policy change.</li><li>The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5d234d2c3a6fdd66410e8c4fdc86a25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>gonin/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>The top 20: daily returns for S&amp;P500</h2><p>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&amp;P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&amp;P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let&#39;s first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&amp;P500:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a00554a6ad210b0ab26216de0667def\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"1314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>As you can see from the list above,</p><ul><li>12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.</li><li>8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.</li><li>2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.</li></ul><p>Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&amp;P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.</p><h2>The major bottom thesis</h2><p>The major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.</p><p>The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.</p><p>As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed&#39;s tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.</p><p>The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It&#39;s true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.</p><p>However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether &#34;something will break&#34; during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.</p><h2>The recessionary selloff</h2><p>The S&amp;P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.</p><p>Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.</p><p>Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70ef81e28bf62d769ca5f75f29feb339\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FRED</span></p><p>Based on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.</p><h2>Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?</h2><p>The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.</p><p>The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.</p><p>But don&#39;t count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.</p><p>But don&#39;t expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it&#39;s more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.</p><h2>It&#39;s a bear market rally</h2><p>We are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of &#34;things breaking&#34; like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.</p><p>Bear market rallies happen during the &#34;in-between periods&#34;, so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don&#39;t think anybody expects this over the near term. Don&#39;t fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.</p><h2>SPY sector analysis</h2><p>AllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d11bae7fc6e9bba3dee9e588bd902bb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SelectSectorSPDR</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Bear Market Rally Or A Major Bottom?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-13 09:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4556371-spy-bear-market-rally-or-a-major-bottom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190456060","content_text":"SummaryLarge 1-day rallies are usually associated with the bear market rallies.Major bottoms require a policy change.The Fed is still in inflation-fighting mode.gonin/iStock via Getty ImagesThe top 20: daily returns for S&P500The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) that tracks the S&P500 soared by 5.5% Thursday (11/10/2022) - and almost broke into the top 20 daily S&P500 returns in history - since the 1920s. So, what doesit mean? Is this just a bear market rally, or a signal of the major bottom. Let's first evaluate the top 20 list of the daily rates of return for the S&P500:As you can see from the list above,12 out 20 top daily returns were the bear market rallies, and 8 out of these 12 were during the 1929-1932 bear market and the Great Depression.8 out of 20 were the near-bottoms, bottoms, or after-bottoms, and 6 of these 8 were during the bottom associated with the 1932 Great Depression bottom.2 out of 8 bottoms were associated with the bottoms of the sharp corrections, the 1987 and the 2020 bottom. The 1987 correction was not associated with a recession, and it is generally considered as a technical in nature. The 2020 bottom was associated with the extraordinary events related to covid19 and the monetary and fiscal covid stimuli.Based on the historical evidence, the 5.6% daily spike in S&P500 (SPX) is either a signal of a major bottom or just another bear market rally.The major bottom thesisThe major bottom thesis requires an actual bear market capitulation, such as the 1932 bottom, the 2003 bottom or 2009 bottom. In each of these cases, there was a clear policy response to stimulate the economy, both monetary and fiscal.The 11/10/22 daily spike was in response to the positive surprise in the CPI inflation, which raised the hope of the Fed pivot - or a less aggressive monetary policy tightening.As I previously explained, the full bear market has3 stages:1) the liquidity selloff in response to the Fed's monetary policy tightening, 2) the recessionary selloff caused by the Fed's tightening, and 3) the credit crunch (or a financial crisis) triggered by the deep recession.The bullish case assumes that the current bear market ended with the Phase 1 - or with the peak Fed hawkishness. It's true, we are likely past the peak inflation, and thus the peak hawkishness.However, the question is whether there is a Phase 2 coming - or a recessionary selloff, and whether \"something will break\" during the process and cause the Phase 3 and the credit crunch.The recessionary selloffThe S&P500 PE ratio after the 11/10 spike is 20.58. The market is still overvalued and not priced for a recession.Is the recession coming? The spread between the 10Y Treasury Bond yield and the 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the most reliable and the Fed-favored recession indicator, and once it inverts, the recession becomes almost a certainty.Currently, the 10y-3mo spread is deeply inverted at -0.46%. Here is the chart:FREDBased on yield curve spread indicator, the recession is coming, and the market is not priced for it - based on the PE ratio of over 20. Thus, the current bear market has not bottomed yet, and the next Phase of the bear market is coming.Why is the 10Y-3mo curve inverted? Why is this signaling a recession?The 10Y-3mo spread is inverted because the Fed is hiking the short-term interest rates above the long-term interest rates. Why? To cause a recession to bring the inflation down.The market hopes that the Fed will slow down with the interest rates hikes, because the inflation has peaked. Too late. The damage has been done. The Fed could even stop after the December 50bpt hike, the 10y-3mo spread has already inverted.But don't count on the Fed to pause yet. If the core CPI printed today 4.3% (instead of actual 6.3%), and that was expected to persist, the Fed would still have to further hike. The target is 2% inflation.But don't expect inflation to sharply fall either - without a deep recession. The economic war with China is still active, and it's more likely to escalate. This is inflationary. The war in Ukraine is still active and it's more likely to escalate. This is also inflationary. The unemployment rate in the US is still near record lows, and this is inflationary. The only thing the Fed can influence is the US unemployment rate - by inducing a recession.It's a bear market rallyWe are not at a major bottom; we are possibly in-between the Phase 1 selloff and a Phase 2 recessionary selloff. There are already signs of \"things breaking\" like the cryptocurrencies, which could lead to the Phase 3 selloff.Bear market rallies happen during the \"in-between periods\", so this bear market rally could continue. The bottom will be in-place when the Fed wants to the bottom to be in place - this will be the pivot the bulls are waiting: the Fed slashing interest rates and resuming QE. I don't think anybody expects this over the near term. Don't fight the Fed. The bear market rally is the opportunity to sell or re-short.SPY sector analysisAllSPYsectors were up significantly on 11/10/2022, led by the beaten down technology sector (XLK), the interest rate sensitive real estate sector (XLRE) and the cyclical discretionary sector (XLY). These sectors should not lead pre-recession, while the Fed is trying to cool off economy.SelectSectorSPDR","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987241752,"gmtCreate":1667943502676,"gmtModify":1676537986255,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987241752","repostId":"1147745884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147745884","pubTimestamp":1667921777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147745884?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-08 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Midterm Elections: What to Watch in Markets As America Votes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147745884","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"It's midterm Election Day in the United States, and while the conventional wisdom has some strong id","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>It&#39;s midterm Election Day in the United States, and while the conventional wisdom has some strong ideas about how it will play out, increasing uncertainty around polling (and a contentious electorate) suggest anything might happen.</p><p>Midterm elections typically go against the party of the president - and if that holds, and Republicans take over even just the House (let alone the currently split Senate), it effectively would mean a sidelining of the vast majority of President Biden&#39;s agenda for the remaining two years in his term.</p><p>That&#39;s not always bad for securities markets (NYSEARCA:SPY), where &#34;gridlock&#34; has often been received by investors as &#34;status quo&#34; - or, more specifically, the lack of any broad or shocking changes on tap that tend to spook investors and spur market declines.</p><p>&#34;History suggests the midterms are a big influence on markets as they always seem to rally once midterms (or presidential elections) are out of the way,&#34; Deutsche Bank&#39;s Jim Reid said. &#34;Our economists&#39; base case is that Republicans will take the House but Democrats will maintain their slim majority in the Senate,&#34; he added.</p><p>For what it&#39;s worth, the world&#39;s richest man Elon Musk is now Twitter&#39;s CEO and sole director, and urged his more than 100 million followers on the service to go GOP: &#34;I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the Presidency is Democratic.&#34;</p><p>While the issues at stake in the election&#39;s various races are numerous - including gun control, abortion and immigration - investors will be focused on a few that have risen to the fore as election season has rumbled on, notably the broader economic slowdown and this year&#39;s historic inflation.</p><p>And while party polarization seems to be at historic highs, when it comes to business and investing, there are areas where the two parties are closer together than others. For example, where the parties agree on infrastructure spending, real estate, construction and utilities could benefit.</p><p>ESG investing (Environmental, Social and Governance) is indirectly on the ballot, as Republicans increasingly tap the issue as a political talking point. If the GOP makes a strong showing, you can expect the pressure on ESG investing to increase. Some of the popular ESG-themed exchange-traded funds: Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF (ERTH), ALPS Clean Energy ETF (ACES), Fidelity Clean Energy ETF (FRNW), KraneShares MSCI China Environment Index (KGRN), Invesco MSCI Green Building ETF (GBLD), iShares S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index ETF (ICLN), Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF (TAN), Global X Wind Energy ETF (WNDY), CleanTech ETF (CTEC), Global X Solar ETF (RAYS), ProShares S&amp;P Kensho Cleantech ETF (CTEX), First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN), iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF (ESGU), Vanguard ESG U.S. Stock ETF (ESGV), and the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ESG ETF (EFIV).</p><p>And conversely, the &#34;anti-ESG&#34; fund God Bless America ETF (YALL) launched last month, with a focus on screening out companies it considers activist.</p><p>Still, clean energy subsidies aren&#39;t as contentious as other issues, so it may be unlikely that President Biden&#39;s signature achievement on climate legislation will be unwound. Oil may be another matter: The idea floated by Biden for a windfall tax on Big Oil will be essentially dead if Republicans gain power. (By the by, the U.S. oil rig count has more than doubled during the Biden administration.)</p><p>Technology is another area where the parties have diverged more in recent years, though perhaps more on style: Both parties have argued for more regulation on tech, for different reasons. The Biden administration has been concerned with concentrated power and antitrust action against the tech giants, including Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN), while Republicans have targeted social media on speech-related issues, and say they won&#39;t back some currently stalled antitrust bills - which could be a boon for those giants currently in the crosshairs.</p><p>Cannabis is on the ballot: Recreational marijuana use is a question in five states(Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota), and outside of Maryland, whether the measures will get adopted is an open question. Watch multistate operators including Cresco Labs (OTCQX: CRLBF); Columbia Care (OTCQX: CCHWF); Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX: TCNNF); Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX: GTBIF); Curaleaf Holdings (OTCPK: CURLF); MedMen Enterprises (OTCQB: MMNFF); Acreage Holdings (OTCQX: ACRHF); Ayr Wellness (OTCQX: AYRWF); Verano Holdings (OTCQX: VRNOF); and Jushi Holdings (OTCQX: JUSHF), as well as ETFs: AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO), Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS), ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), and Global X Cannabis ETF (POTX).</p><p>And of course, closely following on election night&#39;s news will be Thursday&#39;s CPI report, where new data on inflation might amplify the impact of any Tuesday ballot-related effect on markets.</p><p>One thing important for election observers to remember: It&#39;s extremely unlikely we&#39;ll know the results of every race during election night, as many states with more mail-in ballots will likely need more time or even much more time to count them (particularly in the number of states that disallow counting mail-in votes until Election Day arrives, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). And that means even knowing who controls part of Congress might still be in question on Wednesday or beyond.</p><p>Also, control of the extremely close Senate may depend on such factors as automatic recounts, or another Georgia run-off that could delay knowing the answer into December.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Midterm Elections: What to Watch in Markets As America Votes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMidterm Elections: What to Watch in Markets As America Votes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-08 23:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3903249-election-day-what-to-watch-in-markets-as-america-votes><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's midterm Election Day in the United States, and while the conventional wisdom has some strong ideas about how it will play out, increasing uncertainty around polling (and a contentious electorate)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3903249-election-day-what-to-watch-in-markets-as-america-votes\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3903249-election-day-what-to-watch-in-markets-as-america-votes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147745884","content_text":"It's midterm Election Day in the United States, and while the conventional wisdom has some strong ideas about how it will play out, increasing uncertainty around polling (and a contentious electorate) suggest anything might happen.Midterm elections typically go against the party of the president - and if that holds, and Republicans take over even just the House (let alone the currently split Senate), it effectively would mean a sidelining of the vast majority of President Biden's agenda for the remaining two years in his term.That's not always bad for securities markets (NYSEARCA:SPY), where \"gridlock\" has often been received by investors as \"status quo\" - or, more specifically, the lack of any broad or shocking changes on tap that tend to spook investors and spur market declines.\"History suggests the midterms are a big influence on markets as they always seem to rally once midterms (or presidential elections) are out of the way,\" Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said. \"Our economists' base case is that Republicans will take the House but Democrats will maintain their slim majority in the Senate,\" he added.For what it's worth, the world's richest man Elon Musk is now Twitter's CEO and sole director, and urged his more than 100 million followers on the service to go GOP: \"I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the Presidency is Democratic.\"While the issues at stake in the election's various races are numerous - including gun control, abortion and immigration - investors will be focused on a few that have risen to the fore as election season has rumbled on, notably the broader economic slowdown and this year's historic inflation.And while party polarization seems to be at historic highs, when it comes to business and investing, there are areas where the two parties are closer together than others. For example, where the parties agree on infrastructure spending, real estate, construction and utilities could benefit.ESG investing (Environmental, Social and Governance) is indirectly on the ballot, as Republicans increasingly tap the issue as a political talking point. If the GOP makes a strong showing, you can expect the pressure on ESG investing to increase. Some of the popular ESG-themed exchange-traded funds: Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF (ERTH), ALPS Clean Energy ETF (ACES), Fidelity Clean Energy ETF (FRNW), KraneShares MSCI China Environment Index (KGRN), Invesco MSCI Green Building ETF (GBLD), iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Index ETF (ICLN), Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF (TAN), Global X Wind Energy ETF (WNDY), CleanTech ETF (CTEC), Global X Solar ETF (RAYS), ProShares S&P Kensho Cleantech ETF (CTEX), First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF (FAN), iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF (ESGU), Vanguard ESG U.S. Stock ETF (ESGV), and the SPDR S&P 500 ESG ETF (EFIV).And conversely, the \"anti-ESG\" fund God Bless America ETF (YALL) launched last month, with a focus on screening out companies it considers activist.Still, clean energy subsidies aren't as contentious as other issues, so it may be unlikely that President Biden's signature achievement on climate legislation will be unwound. Oil may be another matter: The idea floated by Biden for a windfall tax on Big Oil will be essentially dead if Republicans gain power. (By the by, the U.S. oil rig count has more than doubled during the Biden administration.)Technology is another area where the parties have diverged more in recent years, though perhaps more on style: Both parties have argued for more regulation on tech, for different reasons. The Biden administration has been concerned with concentrated power and antitrust action against the tech giants, including Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN), while Republicans have targeted social media on speech-related issues, and say they won't back some currently stalled antitrust bills - which could be a boon for those giants currently in the crosshairs.Cannabis is on the ballot: Recreational marijuana use is a question in five states(Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota), and outside of Maryland, whether the measures will get adopted is an open question. Watch multistate operators including Cresco Labs (OTCQX: CRLBF); Columbia Care (OTCQX: CCHWF); Trulieve Cannabis (OTCQX: TCNNF); Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX: GTBIF); Curaleaf Holdings (OTCPK: CURLF); MedMen Enterprises (OTCQB: MMNFF); Acreage Holdings (OTCQX: ACRHF); Ayr Wellness (OTCQX: AYRWF); Verano Holdings (OTCQX: VRNOF); and Jushi Holdings (OTCQX: JUSHF), as well as ETFs: AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO), Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS), ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), and Global X Cannabis ETF (POTX).And of course, closely following on election night's news will be Thursday's CPI report, where new data on inflation might amplify the impact of any Tuesday ballot-related effect on markets.One thing important for election observers to remember: It's extremely unlikely we'll know the results of every race during election night, as many states with more mail-in ballots will likely need more time or even much more time to count them (particularly in the number of states that disallow counting mail-in votes until Election Day arrives, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). And that means even knowing who controls part of Congress might still be in question on Wednesday or beyond.Also, control of the extremely close Senate may depend on such factors as automatic recounts, or another Georgia run-off that could delay knowing the answer into December.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984887661,"gmtCreate":1667604761653,"gmtModify":1676537942399,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍&nbsp;","listText":"👍&nbsp;","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984887661","repostId":"2281680644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281680644","pubTimestamp":1667603225,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2281680644?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-05 07:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall St Rallies to Close Out Soft Week After Jobs Report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281680644","media":"Reuters","summary":"Data shows strong jobs growth, uptick in jobless rateStarbucks, DoorDash jump on upbeat resultsU.S-listed China firms rise on reopening hopesDow up 1.26%, S&P 500 up 1.36%, Nasdaq up 1.28%U.S. stocks ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Data shows strong jobs growth, uptick in jobless rate</li><li>Starbucks, DoorDash jump on upbeat results</li><li>U.S-listed China firms rise on reopening hopes</li><li>Dow up 1.26%, S&amp;P 500 up 1.36%, Nasdaq up 1.28%</li></ul><p>U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday in volatile trade to snap a four-session losing streak as investors wrestled with a mixed jobs report and comments from Federal Reserve officials on the pace of interest rate hikes.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq each rose as much as 2% in the early stages of trading while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed as much as 1.9% on the heels of the closely watched labor market report, before paring gains and briefly falling into negative territory. The report showed an uptick in the unemployment rate in October, indicating some signs of slack may finally be starting to emerge in the job market and give the Fed room to downsize its rate hikes beginning in December.</p><p>But the data also showed average hourly earnings rose slightly more than expected, as did job growth, pointing to a labor market that largely remains on firm footing.</p><p>Labor market data has been a primary focus for markets as the Fed has repeatedly stated it is looking for some cooling before considering a pause in hikes. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday increased worries the central bank could keep boosting interest rates for longer than previously expected and put further pressure on stocks.</p><p>&#34;This was not a report that shows the rate hikes are starting to take hold,&#34; said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.</p><p>&#34;You could maybe justify some of this move as this selling got a little overdone after what Powell said at the meeting, so maybe you already had the sellers flushed out.&#34;</p><p>On Friday, Fed officials echoed Powell&#39;s comments about potentially decreasing the size of rate hikes in the future, but needing to continue to raise rates for a longer period of time and potentially above the 4.6% level the central bank penciled in at its September meeting.</p><p>Equities got a boost late in the session after Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said it was possible for the Fed to be &#34;thinking&#34; about pausing even if it&#39;s a year from now.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 401.97 points, or 1.26%, to 32,403.22, the S&amp;P 500 gained 50.66 points, or 1.36%, to 3,770.55 and the Nasdaq Composite added 132.31 points, or 1.28%, to 10,475.25.</p><p>For the week, the Dow fell 1.39% to snap a four-week winning streak, the S&amp;P dropped 3.34% and the Nasdaq slid 5.65% for its biggest weekly percentage decline since January.</p><p>The non-farm payrolls report comes after a conflicting set of data this week that pointed to a slowdown in certain parts of the economy but also underscored the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite aggressive rate hikes to tame inflation.</p><p>Traders&#39; expectations of a 75 basis point rate hike in December had briefly jumped after the jobs report but were now pricing in about a 62% chance of a 50 basis point hike, according to CME&#39;s FedWatch Tool.</p><p>Market focus will now turn to a key consumer inflation reading due next week as well as the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8, where control of Congress is at stake.</p><p>Meanwhile, hopes of an easing in China&#39;s tough COVID-19 curbs supported some areas of the market, with U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies including Alibaba, which finished up 7.05% and JD.com, up 9.74%.</p><p>Those hopes also helped boost prices of commodities such as copper, which in turn lifted the materials sector 3.41% as the best performing of the 11 major S&amp;P sectors.</p><p>Starbucks Corp jumped 8.48% after it topped Wall Street estimates for quarterly comparable sales and profit, while DoorDash Inc&#39;s revenue beat boosted the food delivery firm&#39;s shares by 8.32%.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.31 billion shares, compared with the 11.74 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.41-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and 27 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 81 new highs and 278 new lows.</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall St Rallies to Close Out Soft Week After Jobs Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall St Rallies to Close Out Soft Week After Jobs Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-05 07:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-rallies-202354523.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Data shows strong jobs growth, uptick in jobless rateStarbucks, DoorDash jump on upbeat resultsU.S-listed China firms rise on reopening hopesDow up 1.26%, S&P 500 up 1.36%, Nasdaq up 1.28%U.S. stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-rallies-202354523.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-st-rallies-202354523.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2281680644","content_text":"Data shows strong jobs growth, uptick in jobless rateStarbucks, DoorDash jump on upbeat resultsU.S-listed China firms rise on reopening hopesDow up 1.26%, S&P 500 up 1.36%, Nasdaq up 1.28%U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday in volatile trade to snap a four-session losing streak as investors wrestled with a mixed jobs report and comments from Federal Reserve officials on the pace of interest rate hikes.The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each rose as much as 2% in the early stages of trading while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed as much as 1.9% on the heels of the closely watched labor market report, before paring gains and briefly falling into negative territory. The report showed an uptick in the unemployment rate in October, indicating some signs of slack may finally be starting to emerge in the job market and give the Fed room to downsize its rate hikes beginning in December.But the data also showed average hourly earnings rose slightly more than expected, as did job growth, pointing to a labor market that largely remains on firm footing.Labor market data has been a primary focus for markets as the Fed has repeatedly stated it is looking for some cooling before considering a pause in hikes. Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday increased worries the central bank could keep boosting interest rates for longer than previously expected and put further pressure on stocks.\"This was not a report that shows the rate hikes are starting to take hold,\" said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.\"You could maybe justify some of this move as this selling got a little overdone after what Powell said at the meeting, so maybe you already had the sellers flushed out.\"On Friday, Fed officials echoed Powell's comments about potentially decreasing the size of rate hikes in the future, but needing to continue to raise rates for a longer period of time and potentially above the 4.6% level the central bank penciled in at its September meeting.Equities got a boost late in the session after Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said it was possible for the Fed to be \"thinking\" about pausing even if it's a year from now.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 401.97 points, or 1.26%, to 32,403.22, the S&P 500 gained 50.66 points, or 1.36%, to 3,770.55 and the Nasdaq Composite added 132.31 points, or 1.28%, to 10,475.25.For the week, the Dow fell 1.39% to snap a four-week winning streak, the S&P dropped 3.34% and the Nasdaq slid 5.65% for its biggest weekly percentage decline since January.The non-farm payrolls report comes after a conflicting set of data this week that pointed to a slowdown in certain parts of the economy but also underscored the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite aggressive rate hikes to tame inflation.Traders' expectations of a 75 basis point rate hike in December had briefly jumped after the jobs report but were now pricing in about a 62% chance of a 50 basis point hike, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.Market focus will now turn to a key consumer inflation reading due next week as well as the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8, where control of Congress is at stake.Meanwhile, hopes of an easing in China's tough COVID-19 curbs supported some areas of the market, with U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies including Alibaba, which finished up 7.05% and JD.com, up 9.74%.Those hopes also helped boost prices of commodities such as copper, which in turn lifted the materials sector 3.41% as the best performing of the 11 major S&P sectors.Starbucks Corp jumped 8.48% after it topped Wall Street estimates for quarterly comparable sales and profit, while DoorDash Inc's revenue beat boosted the food delivery firm's shares by 8.32%.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.31 billion shares, compared with the 11.74 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.56-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.41-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and 27 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 81 new highs and 278 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986542951,"gmtCreate":1666999134873,"gmtModify":1676537845618,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986542951","repostId":"2278500004","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278500004","pubTimestamp":1666969180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2278500004?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-28 22:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 32%, Is Disney a Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278500004","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"With iconic media properties, Disney is a household name. But is it a name worth buying after a steep sell-off?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Walt Disney</b> is an iconic name with worldwide recognition value. It owns a powerful collection of entertainment properties. And yet the stock has fallen by over 45% since peaking in early 2021. The shares are down by 32% in 2022 alone. However, there&#39;s a lot to unpack here before you hit the buy button.</p><h2>This makes sense, that doesn&#39;t</h2><p>Stock markets are often considered rational, but that&#39;s really when you look at the long term. Over short periods of time, Wall Street can make some pretty strange choices.</p><p>For example, when the coronavirus pandemic first hit in 2020, Disney&#39;s stock fell sharply. That was pretty logical, given that its amusement parks were shut down and the movies it made couldn&#39;t be released to theaters shut down by government fiat. Not shockingly, earnings were ugly. It got so bad that Disney eliminated its dividend.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23ccba8ca3eb29e65ff75123790d57eb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><p>And then something unusual happened. The stock took off like a rocket ship, more than doubling in value between its pandemic lows and its early 2021 highs. The big story was the company&#39;s streaming business, which latched onto the digital theme driving many stocks as people worked from home and social distanced from each other.</p><p>The company did achieve notable success as it sought to compete with streaming giants like <b>Netflix</b> and <b>Amazon</b>. However, Disney&#39;s financial results didn&#39;t recover back to pre-pandemic levels, so the price spike appeared more emotionally driven than fundamentally sound.</p><p>Not surprisingly, as the euphoria wore off, and things like financial results started to gain more sway, the stock started to sell off again. Now, the shares are back to about where they were when the pandemic first hit. Is that a second chance to buy this iconic name, or just a reflection of reality?</p><h2>Positive and negative signs</h2><p>As noted, Disney&#39;s earnings are not back to pre-pandemic levels. So while the entertainment giant&#39;s business is recovering, it has not fully recovered. There are some notable reasons for this, including the fact that people have shifted the way they consume media. Cable television and movie theaters are both facing pressures and are core parts of Disney&#39;s business.</p><p>Notably, streaming has proven to be a cost-intensive and competitive business. In fact, Disney&#39;s &#34;direct to consumer&#34; segment lost over $1 billion in the third quarter of 2022 alone. That&#39;s a brutal cash drain for any company.</p><p>Overall, despite materially improved results, Disney&#39;s Q3 adjusted earnings only came in at $1.09 per share. Sure, that&#39;s up from $0.80 per share in 2021, but it&#39;s well below the $1.35 it earned in Q3 2019. Perhaps the big price drop makes sense, given that backdrop and the uncertainty around media consumption trends.</p><p>One particularly telling factor, meanwhile, is the dividend -- or, in this case, the lack of a dividend. It&#39;s perfectly understandable that Disney eliminated the dividend in 2020. But it has no plans to pay one in 2022 and hasn&#39;t given any direction about what investors should expect in the future.</p><p>If Disney&#39;s board of directors doesn&#39;t think the business has recovered enough to reinstate the dividend, perhaps it hasn&#39;t recovered enough to merit owning, either. Certainly dividend investors shouldn&#39;t buy it, but this nuance should probably be seen as a warning to other types of investors as well. The recovery story here is perhaps more complex than it seems.</p><h2>Not bad, but still plenty of uncertainty</h2><p>Disney is not a bad company by any stretch of the imagination. And it is clearly recovering from the pandemic hit. Investor sentiment, however, has been hard to predict and often looked unsupported by fundamentals. That&#39;s especially troubling given the push into the money-draining streaming space.</p><p>If you can stomach uncertainty, perhaps Disney is worth owning at current levels, even though the stock&#39;s price-to-earnings ratio is well above pre-COVID norms. This fact suggests that a recovery may already be priced into the shares.</p><p>Conservative investors, meanwhile, will probably be better off waiting for either a more developed recovery (perhaps highlighted by a dividend) or a clearer view of the future in the streaming space.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 32%, Is Disney a Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 32%, Is Disney a Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-28 22:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/down-32-is-disney-a-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Walt Disney is an iconic name with worldwide recognition value. It owns a powerful collection of entertainment properties. And yet the stock has fallen by over 45% since peaking in early 2021. The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/down-32-is-disney-a-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/down-32-is-disney-a-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278500004","content_text":"Walt Disney is an iconic name with worldwide recognition value. It owns a powerful collection of entertainment properties. And yet the stock has fallen by over 45% since peaking in early 2021. The shares are down by 32% in 2022 alone. However, there's a lot to unpack here before you hit the buy button.This makes sense, that doesn'tStock markets are often considered rational, but that's really when you look at the long term. Over short periods of time, Wall Street can make some pretty strange choices.For example, when the coronavirus pandemic first hit in 2020, Disney's stock fell sharply. That was pretty logical, given that its amusement parks were shut down and the movies it made couldn't be released to theaters shut down by government fiat. Not shockingly, earnings were ugly. It got so bad that Disney eliminated its dividend.Image source: Getty Images.And then something unusual happened. The stock took off like a rocket ship, more than doubling in value between its pandemic lows and its early 2021 highs. The big story was the company's streaming business, which latched onto the digital theme driving many stocks as people worked from home and social distanced from each other.The company did achieve notable success as it sought to compete with streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon. However, Disney's financial results didn't recover back to pre-pandemic levels, so the price spike appeared more emotionally driven than fundamentally sound.Not surprisingly, as the euphoria wore off, and things like financial results started to gain more sway, the stock started to sell off again. Now, the shares are back to about where they were when the pandemic first hit. Is that a second chance to buy this iconic name, or just a reflection of reality?Positive and negative signsAs noted, Disney's earnings are not back to pre-pandemic levels. So while the entertainment giant's business is recovering, it has not fully recovered. There are some notable reasons for this, including the fact that people have shifted the way they consume media. Cable television and movie theaters are both facing pressures and are core parts of Disney's business.Notably, streaming has proven to be a cost-intensive and competitive business. In fact, Disney's \"direct to consumer\" segment lost over $1 billion in the third quarter of 2022 alone. That's a brutal cash drain for any company.Overall, despite materially improved results, Disney's Q3 adjusted earnings only came in at $1.09 per share. Sure, that's up from $0.80 per share in 2021, but it's well below the $1.35 it earned in Q3 2019. Perhaps the big price drop makes sense, given that backdrop and the uncertainty around media consumption trends.One particularly telling factor, meanwhile, is the dividend -- or, in this case, the lack of a dividend. It's perfectly understandable that Disney eliminated the dividend in 2020. But it has no plans to pay one in 2022 and hasn't given any direction about what investors should expect in the future.If Disney's board of directors doesn't think the business has recovered enough to reinstate the dividend, perhaps it hasn't recovered enough to merit owning, either. Certainly dividend investors shouldn't buy it, but this nuance should probably be seen as a warning to other types of investors as well. The recovery story here is perhaps more complex than it seems.Not bad, but still plenty of uncertaintyDisney is not a bad company by any stretch of the imagination. And it is clearly recovering from the pandemic hit. Investor sentiment, however, has been hard to predict and often looked unsupported by fundamentals. That's especially troubling given the push into the money-draining streaming space.If you can stomach uncertainty, perhaps Disney is worth owning at current levels, even though the stock's price-to-earnings ratio is well above pre-COVID norms. This fact suggests that a recovery may already be priced into the shares.Conservative investors, meanwhile, will probably be better off waiting for either a more developed recovery (perhaps highlighted by a dividend) or a clearer view of the future in the streaming space.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986550488,"gmtCreate":1666996900544,"gmtModify":1676537845203,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986550488","repostId":"1124585892","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124585892","pubTimestamp":1666965905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124585892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-28 22:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel Upgrades, Meta Platforms Downgrade: Top Calls on Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124585892","media":"The Fly","summary":"Top 5 Upgrades:Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis upgraded Intel (INTC) to Equal Weight from Underweight","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Top 5 Upgrades:</b></p><ul><li>Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis upgraded <b>Intel</b> (INTC) to Equal Weight from Underweight with an unchanged price target of $30. The analyst sees a &#34;bottom in sight&#34; for the shares with PCs closer to a bottom and cost cuts &#34;an important sober step after two years of unrealistic optimism.&#34; Summit Insights analyst KinNgai Chan also upgraded Intel to Buy from Hold, telling investors after the company&#39;s Q3 earnings report that he thinks the company&#39;s Q4 outlook and qualitative 2023 view &#34;encapsulate most, if not all, the current challenges for the company.&#34;</li><li>Piper Sandler analyst Do Kim upgraded <b>Gilead Sciences</b> (GILD) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $96, up from $79. The analyst says &#34;multiple roadblocks have cleared&#34; for the company&#39;s HIV and oncology franchises, providing greater visibility on future revenue growth.</li><li>Roth Capital analyst John White upgraded <b>Amplify Energy</b> (AMPY) to Buy from Neutral with a $12 price target. White believes the litigation/lawsuits surrounding the Southern California Pipeline Incident have reached a satisfactory stage, the analyst tells investors in a research note. He believes that the criminal fines not covered by insurance will be easily met with Amplify&#39;s cash on hand and free cash flow.</li><li>Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan upgraded <b>Ubisoft</b> (UBSFY) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of EUR 37, down from EUR 41. The analyst sees a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels.</li><li>Wolfe Research analyst Steve Fleishman upgraded <b>First Solar</b> (FSLR) to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $170 price target. The company had &#34;another surge of bookings&#34; in Q3 at even higher rates, Fleishman tells investors in a research note.</li></ul><p><b>Top 5 Downgrades:</b></p><ul><li>Edward Jones analyst David Heger downgraded <b>Meta Platforms</b> (META) to Hold from Buy following the Q3 earnings report. While Meta is executing relatively well in the difficult macroeconomic environment and continues to steadily grow users across its platforms, Heger is concerned about how long the growing metaverse investment will take to deliver a sufficient return, the analyst tells investors in a research note.</li><li>Deutsche Bank analyst Nicole Deblase downgraded <b>Caterpillar</b> (CAT) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $221, up from $196. &#34;There is simply not enough upside potential left vs. the current stock price to maintain a Buy rating,&#34; Deblase tells investors in a research note.</li><li>Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale downgraded <b>L3Harris Technologies</b> (LHX) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The stock&#39;s year to date outperformance, coupled with what he views as a downward bias to 2023 models and tense risk/reward debate on the 2023 guidance, no longer supports outperformance despite L3Harris remaining one of the higher quality defense names in the firm&#39;s coverage space, Gesuale tells investors in a research note.</li><li>Credit Suisse analyst Benjamin Chaiken downgraded <b>Travel + Leisure</b> (TNL) to Underperform from Outperform with a price target of $31, down from $77. While Chaiken feels Travel + Leisure is a &#34;quality&#34; company, he thinks they will underperform peers due to its plans to move up the FICO spectrum, which should cause tour flow to come in lower than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note.</li><li>UBS analyst Rayna Kumar downgraded <b>Western Union</b> (WU) to Sell from Neutral with a $12 price target, reflecting 14% downside. The provided a &#34;lackluster&#34; outlook for a 2%-4% adjusted revenue decline in 2023 and a potential recession provides incremental risk given that management indicated its 2023 forecast does not include deterioration from current macro trends, Kumar tells investors in a research note.</li></ul><p><b>Top 5 Initiations:</b></p><ul><li>Wedbush analyst Robert Driscoll initiated coverage of <b>Geron</b> (GERN) with an Outperform rating and $5 price target. The company is developing telomerase inhibitor imetelstat for the treatment of a number of hematological diseases, including lower-risk myelodysplatic syndrome and myelofibrosis, Driscoll tells investors in a research note. The analyst anticipates positive top-line data from the ongoing Phase 3 study in LRMDS in early 2023, allowing for approval and initial launch in the first half of 2024 &#34;in a large commercial market.&#34;</li><li>BTIG analyst Jonathan DeCourcey assumed coverage of <b>Green Thumb Industries</b> (GTBIF) with a Buy rating and C$28 price target as part of a broader research note expanding coverage of the Cannabis industry. The analyst cites the company having posted its 8th consecutive quarter of profitable earnings results, adding that he is confident that positive results will continue through his forecast period and beyond even in the face of macro headwinds.</li><li>BTIG analyst Jonathan DeCourcey assumed coverage of <b>Trulieve Cannabis</b> (TCNNF) with a Buy rating and C$26 price target as part of a broader research note expanding coverage of the Cannabis industry. The analyst states that further upside for Trulieve will come with greater clarity on Florida&#39;s hurricane impact as well as the anticipated timing of potential Connecticut and Pennsylvania recreational cannabis launches.</li><li>B. Riley analyst Kalpit Patel initiated coverage of <b>Mirati Therapeutics</b> (MRTX) with a Neutral rating and $72 price target. Despite a belief that Mirati is likely to gain accelerated approval for adagrasib in second-line metastatic non-small cell lung cancer by the December FDA action date date, a recent disappointment in the field, Amgen&#39;s (AMGN) weak data from its confirmatory trial in a similar setting, may limit commercial uptake relative to Street expectations, Patel tells investors in a research note.</li><li>Raymond James analyst David Feaster assumed coverage of <b>Coastal Financial Corporation</b> (CCB) with a Strong Buy rating and $57 price target. Coastal&#39;s Q3 results exceeded Street forecasts, and its growth outlook remains robust as it continues to add new partners, where it maintains a solid pipeline of new potential partners, Feaster tells investors in a research note.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1649979459173","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel Upgrades, Meta Platforms Downgrade: Top Calls on Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel Upgrades, Meta Platforms Downgrade: Top Calls on Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-28 22:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3605198&headline=META;CAT;LHX;TNL;GERN;AMPY;UBSFY;GILD;FSLR;INTC;WU;GTBIF;TCNNF;MRTX;CCB-Street-Wrap-Todays-Top--Upgrades-Downgrades-Initiations><strong>The Fly</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Top 5 Upgrades:Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis upgraded Intel (INTC) to Equal Weight from Underweight with an unchanged price target of $30. The analyst sees a \"bottom in sight\" for the shares with PCs...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3605198&headline=META;CAT;LHX;TNL;GERN;AMPY;UBSFY;GILD;FSLR;INTC;WU;GTBIF;TCNNF;MRTX;CCB-Street-Wrap-Todays-Top--Upgrades-Downgrades-Initiations\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LHX":"哈里斯公司","META":"Meta Platforms","UBSFY":"UbiSoft Entertainment Inc.","INTC":"英特尔","GERN":"杰龙","TCNNF":"Trulieve Cannabis Corporation","GTBIF":"Green Thumb Industries Inc.","CCB":"Coastal Financial Corp","AMPY":"Amplify Energy Corp.","TNL":"Travel Plus Leisure Co.","WU":"西联汇款","GILD":"吉利德科学","MRTX":"Mirati Therapeutics Inc.","CAT":"卡特彼勒","FSLR":"第一太阳能"},"source_url":"https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3605198&headline=META;CAT;LHX;TNL;GERN;AMPY;UBSFY;GILD;FSLR;INTC;WU;GTBIF;TCNNF;MRTX;CCB-Street-Wrap-Todays-Top--Upgrades-Downgrades-Initiations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124585892","content_text":"Top 5 Upgrades:Barclays analyst Blayne Curtis upgraded Intel (INTC) to Equal Weight from Underweight with an unchanged price target of $30. The analyst sees a \"bottom in sight\" for the shares with PCs closer to a bottom and cost cuts \"an important sober step after two years of unrealistic optimism.\" Summit Insights analyst KinNgai Chan also upgraded Intel to Buy from Hold, telling investors after the company's Q3 earnings report that he thinks the company's Q4 outlook and qualitative 2023 view \"encapsulate most, if not all, the current challenges for the company.\"Piper Sandler analyst Do Kim upgraded Gilead Sciences (GILD) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $96, up from $79. The analyst says \"multiple roadblocks have cleared\" for the company's HIV and oncology franchises, providing greater visibility on future revenue growth.Roth Capital analyst John White upgraded Amplify Energy (AMPY) to Buy from Neutral with a $12 price target. White believes the litigation/lawsuits surrounding the Southern California Pipeline Incident have reached a satisfactory stage, the analyst tells investors in a research note. He believes that the criminal fines not covered by insurance will be easily met with Amplify's cash on hand and free cash flow.Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan upgraded Ubisoft (UBSFY) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of EUR 37, down from EUR 41. The analyst sees a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels.Wolfe Research analyst Steve Fleishman upgraded First Solar (FSLR) to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $170 price target. The company had \"another surge of bookings\" in Q3 at even higher rates, Fleishman tells investors in a research note.Top 5 Downgrades:Edward Jones analyst David Heger downgraded Meta Platforms (META) to Hold from Buy following the Q3 earnings report. While Meta is executing relatively well in the difficult macroeconomic environment and continues to steadily grow users across its platforms, Heger is concerned about how long the growing metaverse investment will take to deliver a sufficient return, the analyst tells investors in a research note.Deutsche Bank analyst Nicole Deblase downgraded Caterpillar (CAT) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $221, up from $196. \"There is simply not enough upside potential left vs. the current stock price to maintain a Buy rating,\" Deblase tells investors in a research note.Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale downgraded L3Harris Technologies (LHX) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The stock's year to date outperformance, coupled with what he views as a downward bias to 2023 models and tense risk/reward debate on the 2023 guidance, no longer supports outperformance despite L3Harris remaining one of the higher quality defense names in the firm's coverage space, Gesuale tells investors in a research note.Credit Suisse analyst Benjamin Chaiken downgraded Travel + Leisure (TNL) to Underperform from Outperform with a price target of $31, down from $77. While Chaiken feels Travel + Leisure is a \"quality\" company, he thinks they will underperform peers due to its plans to move up the FICO spectrum, which should cause tour flow to come in lower than expected, the analyst tells investors in a research note.UBS analyst Rayna Kumar downgraded Western Union (WU) to Sell from Neutral with a $12 price target, reflecting 14% downside. The provided a \"lackluster\" outlook for a 2%-4% adjusted revenue decline in 2023 and a potential recession provides incremental risk given that management indicated its 2023 forecast does not include deterioration from current macro trends, Kumar tells investors in a research note.Top 5 Initiations:Wedbush analyst Robert Driscoll initiated coverage of Geron (GERN) with an Outperform rating and $5 price target. The company is developing telomerase inhibitor imetelstat for the treatment of a number of hematological diseases, including lower-risk myelodysplatic syndrome and myelofibrosis, Driscoll tells investors in a research note. The analyst anticipates positive top-line data from the ongoing Phase 3 study in LRMDS in early 2023, allowing for approval and initial launch in the first half of 2024 \"in a large commercial market.\"BTIG analyst Jonathan DeCourcey assumed coverage of Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) with a Buy rating and C$28 price target as part of a broader research note expanding coverage of the Cannabis industry. The analyst cites the company having posted its 8th consecutive quarter of profitable earnings results, adding that he is confident that positive results will continue through his forecast period and beyond even in the face of macro headwinds.BTIG analyst Jonathan DeCourcey assumed coverage of Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) with a Buy rating and C$26 price target as part of a broader research note expanding coverage of the Cannabis industry. The analyst states that further upside for Trulieve will come with greater clarity on Florida's hurricane impact as well as the anticipated timing of potential Connecticut and Pennsylvania recreational cannabis launches.B. Riley analyst Kalpit Patel initiated coverage of Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) with a Neutral rating and $72 price target. Despite a belief that Mirati is likely to gain accelerated approval for adagrasib in second-line metastatic non-small cell lung cancer by the December FDA action date date, a recent disappointment in the field, Amgen's (AMGN) weak data from its confirmatory trial in a similar setting, may limit commercial uptake relative to Street expectations, Patel tells investors in a research note.Raymond James analyst David Feaster assumed coverage of Coastal Financial Corporation (CCB) with a Strong Buy rating and $57 price target. Coastal's Q3 results exceeded Street forecasts, and its growth outlook remains robust as it continues to add new partners, where it maintains a solid pipeline of new potential partners, Feaster tells investors in a research note.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986394969,"gmtCreate":1666883701957,"gmtModify":1676537824108,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986394969","repostId":"1108902681","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108902681","pubTimestamp":1666883457,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108902681?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-27 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Fights Back Against Arm in Dispute Over Chip Technology","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108902681","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"UK firm’s suit intended to “strong-arm” Qualcomm, suit saysLegal fight centers on technology acquire","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>UK firm’s suit intended to “strong-arm” Qualcomm, suit says</li><li>Legal fight centers on technology acquired in Nuvia buyout</li></ul><p>Qualcomm Inc. countersued Arm Ltd. over claims the chipmaker violated its licensing agreements and trademarks tied to a 2021 acquisition, saying the UK-based tech firm doesn’t have a legitimate basis for its allegations.</p><p>San Diego-based Qualcomm wants a federal judge in Delaware to conclude it didn’t trample on Arm’s licensing contracts as part of Qualcomm’s $1.4 billion buyout of chip startupNuvia Inc., according to a court filing Wednesday.</p><p>The dispute focuses on Arm’s licenses with Nuvia for technology used in chip designs. Arm, owned by SoftBank Group Corp., sued Qualcomm for breach of contract and trademark infringement in September, accusing the firm of using the proprietary innovations without permission. In the past, Qualcomm had been one of Arm’s biggest customers.</p><p>Qualcomm’s lawyers allege Arm’s goal is to “strong-arm Qualcomm into renegotiating the financial terms of the parties’ longstanding license agreements, using this baseless lawsuit as leverage.”</p><p>Since Qualcomm and Arm are two of the world’s most influential chip companies, the case has drawn attention in the tech industry. Qualcomm is the biggest maker of the processors and modems used in smartphones.</p><p>Representatives of Arm didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p>Qualcomm acquired Nuvia last year to beef up its technology and allow it to field more powerful chips. It’s part of a broader strategy by Qualcomm chief executive officer, Cristiano Amon, to decrease his company’s reliance on the smartphone industry and grab a share of the laptop chip market and the lucrative server processor business.</p><p>Arm’s suit is designed to hamper Qualcomm’s plans, the US company’s attorneys argued.</p><p>“With this lawsuit, Arm makes clear to the marketplace it will act recklessly and opportunistically, threatening the development of new and innovative products as a negotiating tactic, not because it has valid license and trademark claims,” according to the filing.</p><p>The case is Arm Ltd v. Qualcomm Inc., No. 22-1146, US District Court for the District of Delaware (Wilmington)</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Fights Back Against Arm in Dispute Over Chip Technology</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Fights Back Against Arm in Dispute Over Chip Technology\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-27 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/qualcomm-fights-back-at-arm-in-dispute-over-chip-technology?srnd=technology-vp><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>UK firm’s suit intended to “strong-arm” Qualcomm, suit saysLegal fight centers on technology acquired in Nuvia buyoutQualcomm Inc. countersued Arm Ltd. over claims the chipmaker violated its licensing...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/qualcomm-fights-back-at-arm-in-dispute-over-chip-technology?srnd=technology-vp\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/qualcomm-fights-back-at-arm-in-dispute-over-chip-technology?srnd=technology-vp","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108902681","content_text":"UK firm’s suit intended to “strong-arm” Qualcomm, suit saysLegal fight centers on technology acquired in Nuvia buyoutQualcomm Inc. countersued Arm Ltd. over claims the chipmaker violated its licensing agreements and trademarks tied to a 2021 acquisition, saying the UK-based tech firm doesn’t have a legitimate basis for its allegations.San Diego-based Qualcomm wants a federal judge in Delaware to conclude it didn’t trample on Arm’s licensing contracts as part of Qualcomm’s $1.4 billion buyout of chip startupNuvia Inc., according to a court filing Wednesday.The dispute focuses on Arm’s licenses with Nuvia for technology used in chip designs. Arm, owned by SoftBank Group Corp., sued Qualcomm for breach of contract and trademark infringement in September, accusing the firm of using the proprietary innovations without permission. In the past, Qualcomm had been one of Arm’s biggest customers.Qualcomm’s lawyers allege Arm’s goal is to “strong-arm Qualcomm into renegotiating the financial terms of the parties’ longstanding license agreements, using this baseless lawsuit as leverage.”Since Qualcomm and Arm are two of the world’s most influential chip companies, the case has drawn attention in the tech industry. Qualcomm is the biggest maker of the processors and modems used in smartphones.Representatives of Arm didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.Qualcomm acquired Nuvia last year to beef up its technology and allow it to field more powerful chips. It’s part of a broader strategy by Qualcomm chief executive officer, Cristiano Amon, to decrease his company’s reliance on the smartphone industry and grab a share of the laptop chip market and the lucrative server processor business.Arm’s suit is designed to hamper Qualcomm’s plans, the US company’s attorneys argued.“With this lawsuit, Arm makes clear to the marketplace it will act recklessly and opportunistically, threatening the development of new and innovative products as a negotiating tactic, not because it has valid license and trademark claims,” according to the filing.The case is Arm Ltd v. Qualcomm Inc., No. 22-1146, US District Court for the District of Delaware (Wilmington)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988884345,"gmtCreate":1666734296787,"gmtModify":1676537795491,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988884345","repostId":"2278020272","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988047230,"gmtCreate":1666647944020,"gmtModify":1676537781632,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988047230","repostId":"1100014243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100014243","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1666624489,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100014243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-24 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Yellen Says Taking Steps to Enhance Treasury Market, Funds Resilience","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100014243","media":"Reuters","summary":"Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday the U.S. financial system rem","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday the U.S. financial system remains resilient amid global volatility, but the Treasury is taking steps to mitigate potential risks in the Treasury market and private money market and bond funds.</p><p>Yellen, in remarks prepared for delivery to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association&#39;s (SIFMA) annual meeting in New York, said Treasury was closely monitoring the financial sector.</p><p>&#34;To date, the U.S. financial system has not been a source of economic instability. While we continue to watch for emerging risks, our system remains resilient and continues to operate well through uncertainties,&#34; Yellen said.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury market is currently reflecting greater uncertainty about the economic outlook, but trading volumes are &#34;robust&#34; and transactions are being executed, she said. But Yellen added that recent episodes of stress in the Treasury market pointed to the need to take steps to enhance its resilience.</p><p>&#34;Treasury is working with financial regulators to advance reforms that improve the Treasury market&#39;s ability to absorb shocks and disruptions, rather than to amplify them,&#34; Yellen said.</p><p>An index of near-term volatility in the Treasury market from ICE/Bank of America Merrill Lynch is near the highest level since the spring of 2020 when market dislocations during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic forced the Federal Reserve to step in to restore order.</p><p>Higher market volatility also could expose vulnerabilities in non-bank financial intermediation, Yellen said. She added that Treasury and financial regulators are working to better monitor leverage in private funds and to &#34;develop policies to reduce the first-mover advantage that could lead to investor runs in money market funds and open-end bond funds.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yellen Says Taking Steps to Enhance Treasury Market, Funds Resilience</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYellen Says Taking Steps to Enhance Treasury Market, Funds Resilience\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-24 23:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday the U.S. financial system remains resilient amid global volatility, but the Treasury is taking steps to mitigate potential risks in the Treasury market and private money market and bond funds.</p><p>Yellen, in remarks prepared for delivery to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association&#39;s (SIFMA) annual meeting in New York, said Treasury was closely monitoring the financial sector.</p><p>&#34;To date, the U.S. financial system has not been a source of economic instability. While we continue to watch for emerging risks, our system remains resilient and continues to operate well through uncertainties,&#34; Yellen said.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury market is currently reflecting greater uncertainty about the economic outlook, but trading volumes are &#34;robust&#34; and transactions are being executed, she said. But Yellen added that recent episodes of stress in the Treasury market pointed to the need to take steps to enhance its resilience.</p><p>&#34;Treasury is working with financial regulators to advance reforms that improve the Treasury market&#39;s ability to absorb shocks and disruptions, rather than to amplify them,&#34; Yellen said.</p><p>An index of near-term volatility in the Treasury market from ICE/Bank of America Merrill Lynch is near the highest level since the spring of 2020 when market dislocations during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic forced the Federal Reserve to step in to restore order.</p><p>Higher market volatility also could expose vulnerabilities in non-bank financial intermediation, Yellen said. She added that Treasury and financial regulators are working to better monitor leverage in private funds and to &#34;develop policies to reduce the first-mover advantage that could lead to investor runs in money market funds and open-end bond funds.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100014243","content_text":"Oct 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday the U.S. financial system remains resilient amid global volatility, but the Treasury is taking steps to mitigate potential risks in the Treasury market and private money market and bond funds.Yellen, in remarks prepared for delivery to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association's (SIFMA) annual meeting in New York, said Treasury was closely monitoring the financial sector.\"To date, the U.S. financial system has not been a source of economic instability. While we continue to watch for emerging risks, our system remains resilient and continues to operate well through uncertainties,\" Yellen said.The U.S. Treasury market is currently reflecting greater uncertainty about the economic outlook, but trading volumes are \"robust\" and transactions are being executed, she said. But Yellen added that recent episodes of stress in the Treasury market pointed to the need to take steps to enhance its resilience.\"Treasury is working with financial regulators to advance reforms that improve the Treasury market's ability to absorb shocks and disruptions, rather than to amplify them,\" Yellen said.An index of near-term volatility in the Treasury market from ICE/Bank of America Merrill Lynch is near the highest level since the spring of 2020 when market dislocations during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic forced the Federal Reserve to step in to restore order.Higher market volatility also could expose vulnerabilities in non-bank financial intermediation, Yellen said. She added that Treasury and financial regulators are working to better monitor leverage in private funds and to \"develop policies to reduce the first-mover advantage that could lead to investor runs in money market funds and open-end bond funds.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988047113,"gmtCreate":1666647894332,"gmtModify":1676537781624,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988047113","repostId":"2277240299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277240299","pubTimestamp":1666685056,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2277240299?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-25 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277240299","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Recession-proof stocks must offer something that makes investors want to buy them even when the economy is tanking.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>We won&#39;t officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is probably on the way.</p><p>For example, Johns Hopkins economics professor Steve Hanke stated a month ago that he believes there&#39;s at least an 80% chance of a recession. Non-profit research group The Conference Board recently pegged the probability at 96%. The latest Bloomberg economic model projects a 100% chance of a recession by October 2023.</p><p>These forecasts don&#39;t guarantee that a recession is coming. But it&#39;s possible that the current bear market will continue for a while longer. That doesn&#39;t mean that every stock will be a big loser, though. Which stocks are most likely to thrive in a recession? Here&#39;s what history shows.</p><h2>Some bad news</h2><p>The SPDR Select Sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are good proxies for gauging how different sectors perform during recessions. One primary downside of using them is that most of these ETFs have only been around since the late 1990s. However, the U.S. has experienced three recessions during that period, so the SPDR Select Sector ETFs should be able to help in determining which stocks historically thrive in a recession.</p><p>I&#39;ve got some bad news, though. None of the SPDR Select Sector ETFs performed well in all three recessions that occurred over the past 25 years.</p><p>The <b>Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</b> held up well during the recession of 2001. However, it still slid a little. The <b>Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF</b> performed similarly during the first recession of this century. (The shaded area in the charts below indicates the period when the U.S. economy was in recession.)</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/853673b3d7036f65675cb75460619a54\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>XLP data by YCharts</span></p><p>However, both of these ETFs plunged during the Great Recession that began in late 2007 and went through mid-2009. So did every other sector ETF -- including (perhaps surprisingly) the <b>Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund</b>.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a98d572e35a8953471c6c7828d2061\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>XLP data by YCharts</span></p><p>All of the sector ETFs also tanked during the brief coronavirus-fueled recession of 2020. However, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund didn&#39;t fall nearly as much as the others did.</p><h2>Looking for exceptions</h2><p>The cold, hard truth is that no category of stocks thrives in all recessions. But it&#39;s clear from examining the past that consumer staples stocks tend to perform better than most. Your best bet, though, is to look for exceptions. I&#39;m referring to stocks that have factors working to their advantage so much that investors want to buy them even when the overall economy stinks.</p><p><b>Johnson &amp; Johnson</b> stood out as this kind of stock during the recession of 2001. The healthcare giant continued to deliver revenue and earnings growth throughout the period. It completed the $10.5 billion acquisition of ALZA Corporation. The blue-chip stock was also viewed as a safe haven for investors worried about the dot-com bubble bursting.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c443d5d4b1ad723b683769a5fdc5f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>JNJ data by YCharts</span></p><p><b>Walmart</b> performed exceptionally well during the Great Recession, especially considering how most stocks plunged. Investors realized that the serious economic downturn would mean that consumers would have to tighten their purse strings. That worked to the advantage of the big discount retailer.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b80d8bd9dda516f36e873284c8ef2e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>WMT data by YCharts</span></p><p><b>Moderna</b>&#39;s share price skyrocketed during the quick recession of 2020. That&#39;s not surprising. The company was one of the early leaders in developing coronavirus vaccines. Moderna was a natural choice for investors to flock to during the uncertain times at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0182e88d0371524d986b304119608277\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>MRNA data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Likely outliers in the next recession</h2><p>Which stocks might be outliers in the next recession, assuming it isn&#39;t too far off? I think we can learn from history.</p><p>Walmart could again defy gravity if the U.S. economy enters into a recession. My view is that another discount retailer, <b>Dollar General</b>, should do so as well.</p><p>Dollar General is outperforming Walmart so far this year. The company continues to build new stores. It&#39;s also expanding its frozen and refrigerated goods offerings. Dollar General should benefit as consumers increasingly try to stretch their dollars.</p><p>Just as Johnson &amp; Johnson and Moderna performed well during two previous recessions, I suspect another drug stock will do so during the next recession -- <b>Vertex Pharmaceuticals</b>. Vertex&#39;s revenue and earnings will almost certainly grow robustly even amid an economic downturn.</p><p>The big biotech also has a pipeline with multiple potential blockbusters likely on the way. Vertex expects to file for regulatory approvals for one of them (gene-editing therapy exa-cel) before year-end. With fears of a recession increasing, I think that Vertex is arguably the best stock to buy right now.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-25 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","XLP":"消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品","JNJ":"强生","WMT":"沃尔玛","VRTX":"福泰制药","XLB":"材料ETF","DG":"美国达乐公司","XLU":"公共事业指数ETF-SPDR"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277240299","content_text":"We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is probably on the way.For example, Johns Hopkins economics professor Steve Hanke stated a month ago that he believes there's at least an 80% chance of a recession. Non-profit research group The Conference Board recently pegged the probability at 96%. The latest Bloomberg economic model projects a 100% chance of a recession by October 2023.These forecasts don't guarantee that a recession is coming. But it's possible that the current bear market will continue for a while longer. That doesn't mean that every stock will be a big loser, though. Which stocks are most likely to thrive in a recession? Here's what history shows.Some bad newsThe SPDR Select Sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are good proxies for gauging how different sectors perform during recessions. One primary downside of using them is that most of these ETFs have only been around since the late 1990s. However, the U.S. has experienced three recessions during that period, so the SPDR Select Sector ETFs should be able to help in determining which stocks historically thrive in a recession.I've got some bad news, though. None of the SPDR Select Sector ETFs performed well in all three recessions that occurred over the past 25 years.The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund held up well during the recession of 2001. However, it still slid a little. The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF performed similarly during the first recession of this century. (The shaded area in the charts below indicates the period when the U.S. economy was in recession.)XLP data by YChartsHowever, both of these ETFs plunged during the Great Recession that began in late 2007 and went through mid-2009. So did every other sector ETF -- including (perhaps surprisingly) the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund.XLP data by YChartsAll of the sector ETFs also tanked during the brief coronavirus-fueled recession of 2020. However, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund didn't fall nearly as much as the others did.Looking for exceptionsThe cold, hard truth is that no category of stocks thrives in all recessions. But it's clear from examining the past that consumer staples stocks tend to perform better than most. Your best bet, though, is to look for exceptions. I'm referring to stocks that have factors working to their advantage so much that investors want to buy them even when the overall economy stinks.Johnson & Johnson stood out as this kind of stock during the recession of 2001. The healthcare giant continued to deliver revenue and earnings growth throughout the period. It completed the $10.5 billion acquisition of ALZA Corporation. The blue-chip stock was also viewed as a safe haven for investors worried about the dot-com bubble bursting.JNJ data by YChartsWalmart performed exceptionally well during the Great Recession, especially considering how most stocks plunged. Investors realized that the serious economic downturn would mean that consumers would have to tighten their purse strings. That worked to the advantage of the big discount retailer.WMT data by YChartsModerna's share price skyrocketed during the quick recession of 2020. That's not surprising. The company was one of the early leaders in developing coronavirus vaccines. Moderna was a natural choice for investors to flock to during the uncertain times at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.MRNA data by YChartsLikely outliers in the next recessionWhich stocks might be outliers in the next recession, assuming it isn't too far off? I think we can learn from history.Walmart could again defy gravity if the U.S. economy enters into a recession. My view is that another discount retailer, Dollar General, should do so as well.Dollar General is outperforming Walmart so far this year. The company continues to build new stores. It's also expanding its frozen and refrigerated goods offerings. Dollar General should benefit as consumers increasingly try to stretch their dollars.Just as Johnson & Johnson and Moderna performed well during two previous recessions, I suspect another drug stock will do so during the next recession -- Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Vertex's revenue and earnings will almost certainly grow robustly even amid an economic downturn.The big biotech also has a pipeline with multiple potential blockbusters likely on the way. Vertex expects to file for regulatory approvals for one of them (gene-editing therapy exa-cel) before year-end. With fears of a recession increasing, I think that Vertex is arguably the best stock to buy right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981615520,"gmtCreate":1666490771960,"gmtModify":1676537761290,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981615520","repostId":"2277744230","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277744230","pubTimestamp":1666489360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2277744230?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-23 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Spectacular Stocks Down 58% to 82% to Buy on the Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277744230","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investors looking for long-term growth in this challenging market might want to consider these three stocks.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Bear markets are never easy to navigate, and the <b>Nasdaq 100</b> technology index is on pace for the worst annual decline since the 2008 global financial crisis. But one hallmark of every market downturn is opportunity: High-quality stocks often overshoot to the downside amid broader declines which are driven largely by fear.</p><p>A panel of Motley Fool contributors have identified <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">Advanced Micro Devices </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a> (DDOG), and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a> as three opportunities investors should consider buying on the dip, as each stock is trading at a steep discount to its all-time high. Let&#39;s explore the details.</p><h2>A best-in-class semiconductor stock trading at a 65% discount</h2><p><b>Anthony Di Pizio (Advanced Micro Devices):</b> Semiconductors are the advanced computer chips essential to our most prized electronics, and the cloud computing technology that hosts our online experiences. Advanced Micro Devices is a world-class semiconductor producer, and it&#39;s one of the most diverse in the entire industry.</p><p>The company makes hardware for both the <b>Sony</b> PlayStation 5 and the <b>Microsoft</b> Xbox gaming consoles, and its chips are responsible for powering the infotainment systems in <b>Tesla</b>&#39;s electric vehicles. But that&#39;s not all: It also works with all the top providers of cloud services, from <b>Amazon</b> Web Services to Microsoft Azure to <b>Alphabet</b>&#39;s Google Cloud.</p><p>Now, AMD is set to take a leadership position in high-performance computing thanks to its $49 billion acquisition of Xilinx earlier this year. Xilinx is a pioneer in adaptive computing, which could be the future for advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). Mainstream semiconductors are often in a solid state, meaning they need to be swapped out for new ones when it&#39;s time to upgrade. But adaptive chips can adjust to the user&#39;s needs in real time and can be reconfigured even after the manufacturing process -- shortening the upgrade cycle.</p><p>AMD just reported disappointing preliminary results for the third quarter of 2022, booking $5.6 billion in revenue, for growth of just 29% year over year. However, the data center segment continued to shine with $1.6 billion in revenue and a growth rate of 45%. The company&#39;s greatest opportunities over the long run could be in the data center, especially when it comes to applying adaptive technologies, so it&#39;s promising to see the segment remaining strong.</p><p>Plus, according to analysts&#39; expectations, the company remains on track to grow total sales by 45% for the whole of 2022, to $23.8 billion. With AMD stock down 65% from its all-time high, this could be a prime opportunity to take a position.</p><h2>An appealing balance between growth and profitability, now at a 58% discount</h2><p><b>Jamie Louko (Datadog):</b> Technology and software companies have fallen out of favor with investors lately, but that doesn&#39;t mean there aren&#39;t high-quality businesses in the space. While many investors have fled from the tech sector, companies like Datadog have continued to post stellar adoption rates and profits.</p><p>Datadog operates application observability and performance monitoring software, which helps customers ensure that their digital applications and tech infrastructure are running smoothly and effectively. This is a must-have service for customers, so it makes sense that demand has remained relatively stable this year, despite the concerning economic backdrop. According to <b>Gartner</b>, Datadog is a leader in the space; this helped the company achieve 74% year-over-year top-line growth in Q2, reaching $406 million in revenue.</p><p>Importantly, Datadog has profit and cash flow coming in, signaling that it isn&#39;t sacrificing profits to achieve artificially higher growth rates. Over the trailing 12 months, Datadog generated almost $354 million in free cash flow -- for a 26% margin -- while keeping net income at $6.5 million.</p><p>This cash flow can help the company do something critical to continue thriving in this space: innovate. Competition is fierce in the application performance monitoring space, with immense pressure from established rivals like <b>Dynatrace</b>. For Datadog to maintain its leadership status, it must continue to build and release new products for customers, and the company has done that. As of August, Datadog had announced the rollout of six products in 2022, and it expects to roll out even more by year&#39;s end.</p><p>With shares down 58% from all-time highs, Datadog&#39;s valuation has fallen from an egregious multiple to a much more acceptable one; shares trade at 74 times free cash flow. While that&#39;s still expensive on an absolute basis, it&#39;s far lower than earlier this year, when the stock was valued as high as 200 times free cash flow.</p><p>Considering the company&#39;s leadership and flawless execution in an industry expected to be worth $53 billion in 2025, Datadog looks worth paying up for.</p><h2>The market leader in e-commerce software, at an 82% discount</h2><p><b>Trevor Jennewine (Shopify):</b> Shopify makes it easy for merchants to manage an omnichannel business. Its software helps sellers build direct-to-consumer (D2C) websites, and it also integrates with online marketplaces like Amazon and social media like Alphabet&#39;s YouTube. Shopify sweetens the deal with adjacent services including discounted shipping, financing, and payment processing.</p><p>The comprehensive nature of its offerings has made it popular with small businesses, though Shopify Plus -- a more customizable option for larger businesses -- is also gaining traction. In fact, Shopify and Shopify Plus rank as the top two e-commerce platforms in terms of market presence, according to G2 Grid, and Shopify powered 10.3% of online retail sales in the U.S. last year, second only to Amazon.</p><p>Despite that strong market position, Shopify has struggled with high inflation this year, as evidenced by its disappointing financial results. Revenue climbed just 16% in the second quarter, and the company posted a non-GAAP (adjusted) loss of $0.03 per diluted share, down from a non-GAAP profit of $0.22 per diluted share in the prior year. As a result, Shopify has seen its share price plunge 82% since last peaking in November 2021.</p><p>However, investors need to focus on the big picture. Shopify actually continued to gain market share in U.S. retail, both online and offline, through the first half of 2022. Moreover, temporary economic headwinds leave the long-term investment thesis unchanged: Shopify is the leading e-commerce software vendor, and it has a particularly strong foothold in the U.S. That bodes well for the future, as online retail sales in the U.S. will grow faster than 12% annually to approach $1.7 trillion by 2026.</p><p>But Shopify is also working to strengthen its position and expand its market opportunity. For instance, it recently added business-to-business (B2B) commerce tools to Shopify Plus, so Plus merchants can now sell D2C and B2B from the same platform. That could be a game changer for a couple of reasons. First, it makes Shopify a more compelling option for larger sellers. In fact, management says more than half of existing Plus merchants could utilize B2B tools. Second, it should allow Shopify to capitalize on the massive B2B market. For context, global B2B e-commerce sales are expected to grow at nearly 20% annually to reach $33 trillion by 2030, according to Grand View Research.</p><p>Currently, Shopify is bouncing off a 52-week low, and shares trade at an inexpensive 7.5 times sales. That&#39;s why this beaten-down growth stock is worth buying now.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Spectacular Stocks Down 58% to 82% to Buy on the Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Spectacular Stocks Down 58% to 82% to Buy on the Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-23 09:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/22/3-spectacular-stocks-down-58-to-82-to-buy-on-dip/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bear markets are never easy to navigate, and the Nasdaq 100 technology index is on pace for the worst annual decline since the 2008 global financial crisis. But one hallmark of every market downturn ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/22/3-spectacular-stocks-down-58-to-82-to-buy-on-dip/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","DDOG":"Datadog","SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/22/3-spectacular-stocks-down-58-to-82-to-buy-on-dip/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277744230","content_text":"Bear markets are never easy to navigate, and the Nasdaq 100 technology index is on pace for the worst annual decline since the 2008 global financial crisis. But one hallmark of every market downturn is opportunity: High-quality stocks often overshoot to the downside amid broader declines which are driven largely by fear.A panel of Motley Fool contributors have identified Advanced Micro Devices , Datadog (DDOG), and Shopify as three opportunities investors should consider buying on the dip, as each stock is trading at a steep discount to its all-time high. Let's explore the details.A best-in-class semiconductor stock trading at a 65% discountAnthony Di Pizio (Advanced Micro Devices): Semiconductors are the advanced computer chips essential to our most prized electronics, and the cloud computing technology that hosts our online experiences. Advanced Micro Devices is a world-class semiconductor producer, and it's one of the most diverse in the entire industry.The company makes hardware for both the Sony PlayStation 5 and the Microsoft Xbox gaming consoles, and its chips are responsible for powering the infotainment systems in Tesla's electric vehicles. But that's not all: It also works with all the top providers of cloud services, from Amazon Web Services to Microsoft Azure to Alphabet's Google Cloud.Now, AMD is set to take a leadership position in high-performance computing thanks to its $49 billion acquisition of Xilinx earlier this year. Xilinx is a pioneer in adaptive computing, which could be the future for advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). Mainstream semiconductors are often in a solid state, meaning they need to be swapped out for new ones when it's time to upgrade. But adaptive chips can adjust to the user's needs in real time and can be reconfigured even after the manufacturing process -- shortening the upgrade cycle.AMD just reported disappointing preliminary results for the third quarter of 2022, booking $5.6 billion in revenue, for growth of just 29% year over year. However, the data center segment continued to shine with $1.6 billion in revenue and a growth rate of 45%. The company's greatest opportunities over the long run could be in the data center, especially when it comes to applying adaptive technologies, so it's promising to see the segment remaining strong.Plus, according to analysts' expectations, the company remains on track to grow total sales by 45% for the whole of 2022, to $23.8 billion. With AMD stock down 65% from its all-time high, this could be a prime opportunity to take a position.An appealing balance between growth and profitability, now at a 58% discountJamie Louko (Datadog): Technology and software companies have fallen out of favor with investors lately, but that doesn't mean there aren't high-quality businesses in the space. While many investors have fled from the tech sector, companies like Datadog have continued to post stellar adoption rates and profits.Datadog operates application observability and performance monitoring software, which helps customers ensure that their digital applications and tech infrastructure are running smoothly and effectively. This is a must-have service for customers, so it makes sense that demand has remained relatively stable this year, despite the concerning economic backdrop. According to Gartner, Datadog is a leader in the space; this helped the company achieve 74% year-over-year top-line growth in Q2, reaching $406 million in revenue.Importantly, Datadog has profit and cash flow coming in, signaling that it isn't sacrificing profits to achieve artificially higher growth rates. Over the trailing 12 months, Datadog generated almost $354 million in free cash flow -- for a 26% margin -- while keeping net income at $6.5 million.This cash flow can help the company do something critical to continue thriving in this space: innovate. Competition is fierce in the application performance monitoring space, with immense pressure from established rivals like Dynatrace. For Datadog to maintain its leadership status, it must continue to build and release new products for customers, and the company has done that. As of August, Datadog had announced the rollout of six products in 2022, and it expects to roll out even more by year's end.With shares down 58% from all-time highs, Datadog's valuation has fallen from an egregious multiple to a much more acceptable one; shares trade at 74 times free cash flow. While that's still expensive on an absolute basis, it's far lower than earlier this year, when the stock was valued as high as 200 times free cash flow.Considering the company's leadership and flawless execution in an industry expected to be worth $53 billion in 2025, Datadog looks worth paying up for.The market leader in e-commerce software, at an 82% discountTrevor Jennewine (Shopify): Shopify makes it easy for merchants to manage an omnichannel business. Its software helps sellers build direct-to-consumer (D2C) websites, and it also integrates with online marketplaces like Amazon and social media like Alphabet's YouTube. Shopify sweetens the deal with adjacent services including discounted shipping, financing, and payment processing.The comprehensive nature of its offerings has made it popular with small businesses, though Shopify Plus -- a more customizable option for larger businesses -- is also gaining traction. In fact, Shopify and Shopify Plus rank as the top two e-commerce platforms in terms of market presence, according to G2 Grid, and Shopify powered 10.3% of online retail sales in the U.S. last year, second only to Amazon.Despite that strong market position, Shopify has struggled with high inflation this year, as evidenced by its disappointing financial results. Revenue climbed just 16% in the second quarter, and the company posted a non-GAAP (adjusted) loss of $0.03 per diluted share, down from a non-GAAP profit of $0.22 per diluted share in the prior year. As a result, Shopify has seen its share price plunge 82% since last peaking in November 2021.However, investors need to focus on the big picture. Shopify actually continued to gain market share in U.S. retail, both online and offline, through the first half of 2022. Moreover, temporary economic headwinds leave the long-term investment thesis unchanged: Shopify is the leading e-commerce software vendor, and it has a particularly strong foothold in the U.S. That bodes well for the future, as online retail sales in the U.S. will grow faster than 12% annually to approach $1.7 trillion by 2026.But Shopify is also working to strengthen its position and expand its market opportunity. For instance, it recently added business-to-business (B2B) commerce tools to Shopify Plus, so Plus merchants can now sell D2C and B2B from the same platform. That could be a game changer for a couple of reasons. First, it makes Shopify a more compelling option for larger sellers. In fact, management says more than half of existing Plus merchants could utilize B2B tools. Second, it should allow Shopify to capitalize on the massive B2B market. For context, global B2B e-commerce sales are expected to grow at nearly 20% annually to reach $33 trillion by 2030, according to Grand View Research.Currently, Shopify is bouncing off a 52-week low, and shares trade at an inexpensive 7.5 times sales. That's why this beaten-down growth stock is worth buying now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981325635,"gmtCreate":1666403656927,"gmtModify":1676537752669,"author":{"id":"3586040086982725","authorId":"3586040086982725","name":"LIMKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981325635","repostId":"2277025934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277025934","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1666400250,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2277025934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-22 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's Rate Debate Shifts to How, and When, to Slow Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277025934","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next mont","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases.</p><p>The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting as officials weigh what some see as growing risks to economic growth against a lack of obvious progress in lowering inflation from its pandemic-related surge.</p><p>&#34;This debate about exactly where we should go, and then become more data-dependent, is going to heat up in the last part of the year here,&#34; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview last week.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice to that debate on Friday during an event in Monterey, California. While acknowledging that high inflation made it &#34;really challenging&#34; for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said &#34;the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.&#34;</p><p>Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.</p><p>Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.</p><p>That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.</p><p>It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized &#34;nonlinear&#34; risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.</p><p>&#34;It really does begin to weigh on the economy,&#34; Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a &#34;closer call than normal&#34; whether recession can be avoided.</p><p>With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching &#34;at some point.&#34;</p><p>Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.</p><p><b>INFLATION SURPRISES</b></p><p>Data on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.</p><p>Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.</p><p>Yet even some of the Fed&#39;s most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.</p><p>Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he&#39;d prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.</p><p>Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.</p><p>Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.</p><p>In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers&#39; preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much &#34;tighter&#34; than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.</p><p>But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.</p><p>Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as &#34;weighted to the upside.&#34;</p><p>In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won&#39;t want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy &#34;pivot&#34; or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.</p><p>Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month&#39;s meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed&#39;s work is done.</p><p>&#34;How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?&#34; Evans said. &#34;I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we&#39;re expecting inflation to be doing, and when you&#39;re going to be willing to say &#39;I think I&#39;ve got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.&#39; It&#39;s hard. That&#39;s a hard discussion.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Rate Debate Shifts to How, and When, to Slow Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Rate Debate Shifts to How, and When, to Slow Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-22 08:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases.</p><p>The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting as officials weigh what some see as growing risks to economic growth against a lack of obvious progress in lowering inflation from its pandemic-related surge.</p><p>&#34;This debate about exactly where we should go, and then become more data-dependent, is going to heat up in the last part of the year here,&#34; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview last week.</p><p>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice to that debate on Friday during an event in Monterey, California. While acknowledging that high inflation made it &#34;really challenging&#34; for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said &#34;the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.&#34;</p><p>Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.</p><p>Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.</p><p>That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.</p><p>It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized &#34;nonlinear&#34; risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.</p><p>&#34;It really does begin to weigh on the economy,&#34; Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a &#34;closer call than normal&#34; whether recession can be avoided.</p><p>With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching &#34;at some point.&#34;</p><p>Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.</p><p><b>INFLATION SURPRISES</b></p><p>Data on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.</p><p>Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.</p><p>Yet even some of the Fed&#39;s most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.</p><p>Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he&#39;d prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.</p><p>Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.</p><p>Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.</p><p>In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers&#39; preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much &#34;tighter&#34; than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.</p><p>But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.</p><p>Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as &#34;weighted to the upside.&#34;</p><p>In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won&#39;t want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy &#34;pivot&#34; or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.</p><p>Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month&#39;s meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed&#39;s work is done.</p><p>&#34;How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?&#34; Evans said. &#34;I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we&#39;re expecting inflation to be doing, and when you&#39;re going to be willing to say &#39;I think I&#39;ve got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.&#39; It&#39;s hard. That&#39;s a hard discussion.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277025934","content_text":"(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases.The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting as officials weigh what some see as growing risks to economic growth against a lack of obvious progress in lowering inflation from its pandemic-related surge.\"This debate about exactly where we should go, and then become more data-dependent, is going to heat up in the last part of the year here,\" St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a Reuters interview last week.San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly added her voice to that debate on Friday during an event in Monterey, California. While acknowledging that high inflation made it \"really challenging\" for the central bank to step down from its rate hikes, Daly said \"the time is now to start talking about stepping down. The time is now to start planning for stepping down.\"Investors widely expect the Fed next month to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point for a fourth consecutive time, lifting it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. While the process of raising interest rates is not yet finished, policymakers feel they may be at the point where further increases can be smaller in size, and are close to where they can pause altogether in order to take stock as the economy adjusts to the rapid change in credit conditions the central bank has set in motion.That advice has been subtle: In a speech earlier this month, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard offered a list of reasons to be cautious about further tightening without overtly calling for a slowdown or pause.It also has been blunt: In comments this week in Virginia, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans warned of outsized \"nonlinear\" risks to the economy if the federal funds rate is lifted much beyond the 4.6% level officials projected in September that they would reach next year.\"It really does begin to weigh on the economy,\" Evans said. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a \"closer call than normal\" whether recession can be avoided.With that view becoming more full-throated, and more economists saying a U.S. recession is likely next year, the November meeting may well be when the Fed signals it is time to slow down - a moment Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 21 news conference would be approaching \"at some point.\"Powell has not spoken publicly about monetary policy since then.INFLATION SURPRISESData on inflation has offered little relief to the Fed. Headline consumer prices rose in September at an 8.2% annual rate. The U.S. central bank uses a different inflation measure for its 2% inflation target, but that remains roughly three times the target.Job growth continues to be strong, with a still-outsized number of vacancies compared to the number of jobseekers. Employers say it remains difficult to find workers.Yet even some of the Fed's most hawkish voices appear ready to let the economy have time to catch up with the monetary tightening already underway.Bullard told Reuters he also sees a federal funds rate of around 4.6% as a point to pause and take stock, though he'd prefer to get there by the end of this year with two more 75-basis-point increases and then let policy evolve in 2023 based on how inflation behaves.Expectations at the Fed about inflation have begun to settle around three key points that both buttress the calls for caution on further rate hikes, but also leave policymakers wanting to keep their options open.Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Consumer prices are weighted towards rents, which are slow to change, and much of the current inflation is coming from service industries where price changes are harder to influence.In economic projections released by the Fed in September, a version of policymakers' preferred measure of inflation was seen ending 2023 above 3%. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much \"tighter\" than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.But policymakers also agree the full impact of their rate hikes may not become clear for months, even as data is starting to show the seeds of an inflation slowdown taking root. Vehicle prices that drove the inflation surge in the early part of the pandemic are falling, and industry executives expect more; month-to-month data show rents are coming down and the housing industry, a barometer of other household spending, is slowing rapidly as the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage nears 7%.Yet, in another point of agreement, risk sentiment among Fed officials is almost uniformly tilted towards the likelihood of more inflation surprises to come, putting the group on what some have described as a hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst footing. In September, 17 of 19 officials saw inflation risks as \"weighted to the upside.\"In that situation, even if policymakers are ready to be done with the 75-basis-point rate increases, they won't want the public to equate smaller future hikes with a true policy \"pivot\" or a softened stance on inflation - a tricky point to communicate.Even more dovish officials like Evans agree monetary policy needs to hit a more restrictive level and stay there until the back of inflation is broken. Others agree even if the Fed slows to half-percentage-point increases after next month's meeting, that remains fast by recent standards and could quickly push the federal funds rate to a level of 5% or higher, more in line with rate-hiking cycles since the 1990s and a level some economists see as needed before the Fed's work is done.\"How do you step down without giving external observers, financial markets, the wrong impression?\" Evans said. \"I think that puts a premium on explaining where we think we are, what we're expecting inflation to be doing, and when you're going to be willing to say 'I think I've got the level of the funds rate that is adequately restrictive in order to be consistent with inflation coming down.' It's hard. That's a hard discussion.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}