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haruharu
2021-07-21
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Bezos "goes to heaven", Virgin Galactic once fell sharply, what happened?
haruharu
2021-07-21
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What is the real reason for the sharp decline in U.S. long-term interest rates?
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On the morning of July 20, local time, the world's richest man, the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Company founder Jeff Bezos soared about 107 kilometers over the Texas desert in the United States aboard his company's Blue Origin launch vehicle and returned safely to Earth. The launch is Blue Origin's first manned space flight and marks another step in the race to build a space tourism business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f0247cd617893985205da44466925e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, the share price of space tourism company Virgin Galactic plummeted on Tuesday, falling nearly 9% during the session, and narrowing to 1.14% at the close. Previously, on July 11, 70-year-old richard branson, the founder of Virgin Galactic, successfully returned from an 85.9-kilometer-high orbit on SpaceShip-2, becoming the first founder of a commercial aerospace company to board space, nine days earlier than Blue Origin founder Bezos.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4d314424b805eb05fbce1786d3affb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>How are these two things related?</p><p>Simply put, Virgin Galactic is no longer the only successful space tourism franchise. Nine days after Virgin Galactic successfully launched founder DeBranson into space, former Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos' space company Blue Origin completed its first manned flight. That weighed on Virgin Galactic stock on Tuesday.</p><p>Nine days ago, Virgin Galactic took the lead in realizing the first \"full commercial launch\" authorized by the FAA and started the space tourism business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e6ae9546cf10d525c768e975e14cf7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Virgin Galactic is targeting a huge space tourism market-there are 1.5 million millionaires in the United States alone, 6 million millionaires who may want to spend $250,000 on a space ticket, and for them, it's not out of reach, while there are probably 20 million millionaires around the world. While that market is huge, it has now been cut in half as Virgin Galactic will have to take a piece of Blue Origin's pie. According to foreign media reports, Bezos said in his speech after his successful flight on July 20, local time that the demand in the space tourism market is very high, and \"Blue Origin has sold nearly $100 million worth of future passenger tickets.\" Bezos also said that Blue Origin will carry out two more manned missions this year.</p><p>Is it reasonable for Virgin Galactic's stock to plummet?</p><p>Maybe not. Even the remaining 10 million customers, divided by the six passengers that the Virgin Galactic space shuttle can carry at a time, means that Virgin Galactic still has a lot of potential business in the future, and there are still many flights before consumer demand is exhausted.</p><p>Still, investors need to realize that after Blue Origin's successful space flight, there is still one boot left unfallen. Within a short year or three, we could see SpaceX enter the space tourism race with its new Starship-a ship that can actually reach, stay in, and travel through space; Transport 100 visitors at a time; Do it all at a price that neither Blue Origin nor Virgin Galactic can match. This is the real crisis in Virgin Galactic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ad74a3df40a3ddbe37438033c7bd57\" tg-width=\"3000\" tg-height=\"2005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But compared to the stock's recent rally, competition may not be a significant factor.</p><p>Virgin Galactic stock has been hot lately, but stocks that rise eventually fall. Investors are bidding for stocks in anticipation of good news. Now that the good news of Branson's space trip success has passed, stock buyers have paused, awaiting the next big announcement or event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3412e9662e9b3da05900f93a227e5f86\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another flight test or the date of possible commencement of normal commercial operation can be catalysts. Wall Street expects scheduled flights from Virgin Galactic to begin around the end of this year. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert recently said he thinks early 2022 is more likely.</p><p>Herbert rates Galaxy shares a Buy with a $48 price target. That's up from $35 before the spaceflight in July, when the stock was trading near $50.</p><p>Another reason for Virgin Galactic's weakness is the announcement of stock sales. Virgin Galactic said July 12 that it would raise up to $500 million through the sale of new shares. More shares dilute the shares of existing shareholders. More sellers than buyers-even if the seller is the company itself-always causes the stock price to fall.</p><p>Virgin Galactic is still up about 35% this year, better than the S&P 500's 15% gain.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bezos \"goes to heaven\", Virgin Galactic once fell sharply, what happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBezos \"goes to heaven\", Virgin Galactic once fell sharply, what happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 14:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The good news for Blue Origin is obviously good for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a>It's bad news. On the morning of July 20, local time, the world's richest man, the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Company founder Jeff Bezos soared about 107 kilometers over the Texas desert in the United States aboard his company's Blue Origin launch vehicle and returned safely to Earth. The launch is Blue Origin's first manned space flight and marks another step in the race to build a space tourism business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f0247cd617893985205da44466925e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, the share price of space tourism company Virgin Galactic plummeted on Tuesday, falling nearly 9% during the session, and narrowing to 1.14% at the close. Previously, on July 11, 70-year-old richard branson, the founder of Virgin Galactic, successfully returned from an 85.9-kilometer-high orbit on SpaceShip-2, becoming the first founder of a commercial aerospace company to board space, nine days earlier than Blue Origin founder Bezos.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4d314424b805eb05fbce1786d3affb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>How are these two things related?</p><p>Simply put, Virgin Galactic is no longer the only successful space tourism franchise. Nine days after Virgin Galactic successfully launched founder DeBranson into space, former Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos' space company Blue Origin completed its first manned flight. That weighed on Virgin Galactic stock on Tuesday.</p><p>Nine days ago, Virgin Galactic took the lead in realizing the first \"full commercial launch\" authorized by the FAA and started the space tourism business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e6ae9546cf10d525c768e975e14cf7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Virgin Galactic is targeting a huge space tourism market-there are 1.5 million millionaires in the United States alone, 6 million millionaires who may want to spend $250,000 on a space ticket, and for them, it's not out of reach, while there are probably 20 million millionaires around the world. While that market is huge, it has now been cut in half as Virgin Galactic will have to take a piece of Blue Origin's pie. According to foreign media reports, Bezos said in his speech after his successful flight on July 20, local time that the demand in the space tourism market is very high, and \"Blue Origin has sold nearly $100 million worth of future passenger tickets.\" Bezos also said that Blue Origin will carry out two more manned missions this year.</p><p>Is it reasonable for Virgin Galactic's stock to plummet?</p><p>Maybe not. Even the remaining 10 million customers, divided by the six passengers that the Virgin Galactic space shuttle can carry at a time, means that Virgin Galactic still has a lot of potential business in the future, and there are still many flights before consumer demand is exhausted.</p><p>Still, investors need to realize that after Blue Origin's successful space flight, there is still one boot left unfallen. Within a short year or three, we could see SpaceX enter the space tourism race with its new Starship-a ship that can actually reach, stay in, and travel through space; Transport 100 visitors at a time; Do it all at a price that neither Blue Origin nor Virgin Galactic can match. This is the real crisis in Virgin Galactic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ad74a3df40a3ddbe37438033c7bd57\" tg-width=\"3000\" tg-height=\"2005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But compared to the stock's recent rally, competition may not be a significant factor.</p><p>Virgin Galactic stock has been hot lately, but stocks that rise eventually fall. Investors are bidding for stocks in anticipation of good news. Now that the good news of Branson's space trip success has passed, stock buyers have paused, awaiting the next big announcement or event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3412e9662e9b3da05900f93a227e5f86\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another flight test or the date of possible commencement of normal commercial operation can be catalysts. Wall Street expects scheduled flights from Virgin Galactic to begin around the end of this year. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert recently said he thinks early 2022 is more likely.</p><p>Herbert rates Galaxy shares a Buy with a $48 price target. That's up from $35 before the spaceflight in July, when the stock was trading near $50.</p><p>Another reason for Virgin Galactic's weakness is the announcement of stock sales. Virgin Galactic said July 12 that it would raise up to $500 million through the sale of new shares. More shares dilute the shares of existing shareholders. More sellers than buyers-even if the seller is the company itself-always causes the stock price to fall.</p><p>Virgin Galactic is still up about 35% this year, better than the S&P 500's 15% gain.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3d3a3c8cb374234f20ed2a295e3781c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","SPCE":"维珍银河"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198728322","content_text":"蓝色起源的好消息显然对维珍银河来说是个坏消息。\n\n当地时间7月20日上午，世界首富、美国亚马逊公司创始人杰夫·贝索斯乘坐其公司蓝色起源的运载火箭在美国德克萨斯沙漠上空翱翔约107 公里，并安全返回地球。这次发射为蓝色起源公司首次载人太空飞行，标志着在打造太空旅游业务的竞争中又迈出了一步。\n\n与之相对的是，周二太空旅游公司维珍银河股价出现暴跌，盘中一度跌近9%，收盘时跌幅缩窄至1.14％。此前7月11日，维珍银河创始人、70岁的理查德·布兰森搭乘太空船二号成功从85.9公里高的轨道返回，成为首位登上太空的商业航天企业创始人，比蓝色起源创始人贝佐斯早9天。\n\n这两件事存在怎样的关联？\n简单来说，维珍银河不再是唯一一家成功的太空旅游特许经营公司。在维珍银河成功将创始人德布兰森送入太空九天后，亚马逊前首席执行官杰夫贝索斯的太空公司蓝色起源完成了首次载人飞行。这对周二的维珍银河股票造成压力。\n九天前，维珍银河率先实现美国联邦航空局授权的第一次“全面商业发射”，开启了太空旅游业务。\n\n维珍银河瞄准的是一个巨大的太空旅游市场——仅在美国就有150万千万富翁，600万百万富翁，他们可能想花25万美元购买一张太空票，对他们来说，并非遥不可及，而全世界大概有2000万百万富翁。尽管这个市场很大，但现在它已经被削减了一半，因为维珍银河将不得不分蓝色起源一杯羹。据外媒报道，贝索斯当地时间7月20日成功飞行后的演讲中称，太空旅游市场需求非常高，“蓝色起源已经售出了价值近1亿美元的未来客运机票”。贝索斯还称，蓝色起源今年还将再执行两次载人飞行任务。\n那维珍银河股票大跌是否合理？\n也许不是。即使是剩下1000万客户，除以维珍银河航天飞机每次可搭载的6名乘客，也意味着维珍银河公司未来还有很多潜在的业务，在耗尽消费者需求之前，还有很多航班。\n尽管如此，投资者需要意识到，蓝色起源成功太空飞行之后，还有一只靴子没有落下。在短短的一年或三年内，我们可能看到SpaceX带着它的新型星际飞船进入太空旅游竞赛——一艘能够真正到达、停留在太空中并穿越太空的飞船；一次运送100名游客；以蓝色起源和维珍银河都无法企及的价格完成这一切。这才是维珍银河真正的危机。\n\n但与该股最近的上涨相比，竞争可能不是一个重要因素。\n维珍银河股票最近一直火爆，但上涨的股票最终会下跌。投资者因预期好消息而竞购股票。既然布兰森太空旅行成功的好消息已经过去，股票买家已经暂停，等待下一个重大公告或事件。\n\n另一次飞行试验或可能开始正常商业运行的日期，都可以成为催化剂。华尔街预计维珍银河将在今年年底左右开始进行定期航班。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特（Ken Herbert）最近表示，他认为2022年初的可能性更大。\n赫伯特将银河公司股票评级为买入，目标价为48美元。这比7月太空飞行前的35美元有所上升，当时该股的股价接近50美元。\n维珍银河走弱的另一个原因是宣布出售股票。维珍银河7月12日表示，将通过出售新股筹集至多5亿美元。更多的股票稀释了现有股东的股份。卖家比买家多——即使卖方是公司本身——总是导致股价下跌。\n维珍银河今年以来仍上涨约35%，好于标普500指数的15%涨幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176048541,"gmtCreate":1626849339383,"gmtModify":1703479245512,"author":{"id":"4089951304751690","authorId":"4089951304751690","name":"haruharu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089951304751690","authorIdStr":"4089951304751690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176048541","repostId":"1146283458","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146283458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626849210,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146283458?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 14:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the real reason for the sharp decline in U.S. long-term interest rates?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146283458","media":" 张忆东策略世界","summary":"摘要\n引言：近期10年期美债收益率一度下探至1.1%-1.2%区间，我们认为：\n一、近期疫情变数并非美长端利率大幅下行的核心原因\n诚然，上周开始，美国出现单日新增确诊病例数再次超过4万例的情况，加重了","content":"<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p><b>Introduction: Recently, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once dropped to the range of 1.1%-1.2%. We believe that:</b></p><p><b>1. The recent epidemic variables are not the core reason for the sharp decline in U.S. long-term interest rates</b></p><p>It is true that since last week, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in the United States has once again exceeded 40,000, which has aggravated the market's concerns about the economic outlook and boosted the decline in long-term interest rates in the United States, but this is not the core reason.</p><p><ul><li>First of all, the epidemic variables caused by the Delta virus variant have been fermenting since June;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, taking the United Kingdom as an example, although the Delta virus variant has led to an increase in the number of newly confirmed cases, it has not changed the downward trend of the new crown fatality rate caused by vaccines;</p><p></li><li>Third, since July, while long-term interest rates have fallen sharply, the decline in inflation expectations has been relatively moderate, which shows that the economic outlook factor is not the core dominant factor for the decline in long-term interest rates.</p><p></li></ul><b>2. The explanation of the \"flood discharge\" of TGA accounts into the bond market to lower interest rates is doubtful</b></p><p><ul><li>First of all, short-term interest rates are more significantly affected by liquidity, but during the period when the 10-year US Treasury yields declined sharply, the 2-year short-term interest rates declined moderately;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, after April, the Treasury Department's TGA \"flood discharge\" did not lead to an increase in bank reserves. The higher O/N RRP usage showed that funds flowed back to the Federal Reserve, and the transmission to the U.S. bond market was not direct.</p><p></li></ul><b>3. Due to debt ceiling constraints, the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department slowed down significantly in July. The Federal Reserve may be the main force in lowering U.S. long-term interest rates. It is expected that U.S. bond yields will continue to remain low for the rest of July</b></p><p><ul><li>First of all, as we mentioned in 20210318 \"The Mystery of U.S. Debt\", the structure of U.S. debt holders has undergone a qualitative change. Practicing MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), the Federal Reserve is the main buyer of new U.S. bonds, which makes the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department an important variable affecting U.S. bond yields.</p><p></li><li>Secondly, based on debt ceiling constraints, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance slowed down significantly in July. During the period from 0701 to 0716, the net issuance of the Ministry of Finance was-US $6.4 billion; From April to June this year, the monthly net issuance of U.S. Treasury Bond was US $42 billion, US $24 billion, and US $330 billion respectively.</p><p></li><li>Third, at the same time, the Federal Reserve still purchases approximately US $20 billion in Treasury Bond every week according to the monthly bond purchase scale of US $120 billion (approximately US $80 billion in Treasury Bond + US $40 billion in MBS), and continues to buy bonds to lower long-term interest rates.</p><p></li><li>Fourth, the Fed's bond purchase is not a market behavior. Therefore, compared with allocation institutions, its purchase of U.S. bonds regardless of cost will have a more significant impact on U.S. bond prices at the same scale.</p><p></li><li>Finally, it is expected that in the rest of July, the \"surplus grain\" of the TGA account will remain surplus, the demand for bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance will continue to remain sluggish, and the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to remain low; As of July 14, the latest disclosure, based on debt ceiling constraints, a balance of up to $207.5 billion has yet to be spent.</p><p></li></ul><b>4. The intensive issuance of bonds by the Treasury Department from August to September may bring rebound pressure on long-term interest rates in the United States, but it will not repeat the surge in February and March. Low interest rates in the United States will be the norm in the medium and long term.</b></p><p><ul><li>According to the financing plan for the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury Department will issue bonds to raise US $805 billion from July to September, twice that in the second quarter, and the current reduced infrastructure agreement between the two parties has been reached, which may also increase the actual financing needs of the Treasury Department. Based on this calculation, the subsequent bond issuance plan of the U.S. Treasury Department will be concentrated in August and September, and the market's expectations for the Fed Taper will also increase from August to September, so there will be pressure to rebound in U.S. long-term interest rates.</p><p></li><li>However, considering that the peak of this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to be in the second quarter, U.S. interest rates will remain low in the medium and long term, and the February and March-style surge will not be repeated in the second half of the year.</p><p></li><li>Finally, it is emphasized once again that under the background of the game between major powers in the United States, maintaining low interest rates in the medium and long term and stimulating economic growth will be the only way for the United States to get out of the quagmire of high debt.</p><p></li></ul><b>Risk warning: the global economic growth rate is declining; The easing of monetary policies in China and the United States did not meet expectations; Great power game risk</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1. The recent epidemic variables are not the core reason for the sharp decline in U.S. long-term interest rates</p><p>Is the recent epidemic variable the core variable in the downward trend of long-term U.S. bond yields? It's not. It is true that the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in the United States has once again exceeded 40,000 since last week, which has aggravated the market's concerns about the economic outlook. It has contributed to the decline in long-term interest rates in the United States, but it is not the core reason.</p><p><ul><li>First of all, the epidemic variables caused by the Delta virus variant have been fermenting for a long time. As early as June, the number of newly confirmed cases in Britain, Russia and other countries rose sharply again;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, taking the United Kingdom as an example, although the Delta virus variant has led to an increase in the number of newly confirmed cases, it has not changed the downward trend of the new crown fatality rate caused by vaccines. The mortality rate shown by the average number of deaths on 7 days/the average number of newly confirmed cases on 7 days 2 weeks ago has continued to decline since 2021, which shows that the resistance to severe diseases shows the effect of vaccines.</p><p></li><li>Third, since July, while long-term interest rates have fallen sharply, the decline in inflation expectations has been relatively moderate, which shows that the economic outlook factor is not the core dominant factor for the decline in long-term interest rates. The 10-year inflation expectation only dropped by 10bp from 2.35% to 2.24%, and from 0707-0719, the 10-year inflation expectation only dropped by 11bp from 2.35% to 2.24%, while the nominal interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond during the same period dropped from 1.48% A sharp drop of 29bp to 1.19%.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/185d62da04d9a7f2268a7b887bb2e661\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69821188ad7f6718dcbd40093826c07a\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2. The explanation of the \"flood discharge\" of TGA accounts into the bond market to lower interest rates is doubtful</p><p>Some interpretations believe that the recent decline in U.S. bond yields is caused by the release of liquidity from the Treasury Department's TGA spending and its return to the U.S. bond market. We disagree.</p><p>First of all, short-term interest rates are more significantly affected by liquidity, but the downward trend of short-term interest rates is not obvious. If it is caused by TGA \"flood discharge\", then the allocation demand driven by abundant liquidity will first focus on short-term interest rates. In fact, during the period of sharp decline in long-term interest rates, the decline in 2-year short-term interest rates was relatively moderate. During the period from 0701 to 0719, the yield of 2-year U.S. bonds only fell 4bp from 0.25% to 2.21%. Moreover, from a high-frequency perspective, long-term interest rates are in many cases ahead of short-term interest rates.</p><p>Secondly, after April, the \"flood discharge\" of the TGA of the Ministry of Finance did not lead to an increase in bank reserves, and the higher O/N RRP usage showed that funds returned to the Federal Reserve. During the period 0407-0714, TGA accounts decreased by $297.4 billion; During the same period, bank reserves decreased by $29.9 billion instead. During the same period, we saw a sharp increase in O/N RRP usage. Therefore, the decrease and rise in TGA accounts and ON RRP usage shows that the liquidity of the Treasury Department has flowed back to the Federal Reserve, bank reserves have not increased, and the transmission to the U.S. bond market is not direct.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3e7e28b1bd11250edea7bc5b843510\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3. Due to debt ceiling constraints, the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department slowed down significantly in July. The Federal Reserve may be the main force in lowering U.S. long-term interest rates. It is expected that U.S. bond yields will continue to remain low for the rest of July</p><p>Due to debt ceiling constraints, the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department slowed down significantly in July, while the Federal Reserve still maintained a monthly bond purchase pace of 120 billion (about 80 billion US dollars in Treasury Bond + 40 billion US dollars in MBS), or depressed July The core reason for the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds. Looking forward to the rest of July, the \"surplus grain\" of TGA accounts will still be surplus, the demand for bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance will continue to be sluggish, and the long-term interest rate in the United States will continue to hover at a low level.</p><p>First of all, as we mentioned in 20210318 \"The Mystery of U.S. Debt\", the structure of U.S. debt holders has undergone a qualitative change. Practicing MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), the Federal Reserve is the main buyer of new U.S. bonds, which makes the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department an important variable affecting U.S. bond yields. In 2020, the U.S. government issued a net US $4.54 trillion in Treasury Bond, and the increase in U.S. Treasury Bond accounted for 52% of the net circulation that year. At present, the proportion of foreign capital holding U.S. Treasury Bond has dropped from 47% at the end of 2015 to 34% at the end of 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the proportion of the Fed's holdings in the U.S. Treasury Bond has further increased to 24%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce12a31c1aa3b901bc1ca327e15376b5\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Secondly, the net issuance of Treasury Bond by the Ministry of Finance has turned negative since July. As of the latest period from 0701 to 0716, the net issuance of the Ministry of Finance was-US $6.4 billion; From April to June this year, the monthly net issuance of U.S. Treasury Bond was US $42 billion, US $24 billion, and US $330 billion respectively.</p><p>Third, at the same time, the Federal Reserve still purchases approximately US $20 billion in Treasury Bond every week according to the monthly bond purchase scale of US $120 billion (approximately US $80 billion in Treasury Bond + US $40 billion in MBS), and continues to buy bonds to lower long-term interest rates. For example, from April to June this year, the Federal Reserve's corresponding monthly new holdings were US $72.5 billion, US $72.4 billion, and US $96.2 billion. During the period from 0701 to 0704, the Fed's new holdings of Treasury Bond amounted to $39.2 billion.</p><p>Fourth, from the perspective of micro-transactions, the Fed's bond purchase is not a market behavior. Therefore, compared with allocation institutions, its purchase of U.S. bonds regardless of cost will have a more significant impact on U.S. bond prices at the same scale.</p><p>Finally, it is expected that in the rest of July, the \"surplus grain\" of TGA accounts will remain surplus, the Treasury's bond issuance demand will continue to remain sluggish, and U.S. bond yields will continue to remain low. According to the U.S. Treasury Department's financing plan disclosed on May 3, it is expected to reduce the TGA account to $450 billion on July 31, the debt ceiling maturity date. However, as of the latest disclosure of July 14, there is still $657.5 billion in the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance, with a balance of up to $207.5 billion to be spent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6a2990771c8a9070cdabcbeca18f47\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>4. The intensive issuance of bonds by the Treasury Department from August to September may bring rebound pressure on U.S. long-term interest rates, but it will not repeat the surge in February and March. Low U.S. interest rates will be the norm in the medium and long term</p><p>Based on the intensive bond issuance financing by the Treasury Department in August-September, and the superimposed Taper expectations at that time, U.S. bond yields may be under pressure to rebound in stages in August-September.</p><p>First of all, according to the financing plan for the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury Department will issue bonds to raise US $805 billion from July to September, twice that in the second quarter, and the current reduced infrastructure agreement between the two parties has been reached, which may also increase the actual financing of the Treasury Department needs. Based on this calculation, the subsequent bond issuance plan of the U.S. Treasury Department will be concentrated in August and September, which will bring pressure on the rebound of long-term interest rates in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations in June, inflation may still hover at a high level in July, the economic downturn is not obvious, and as the savings rate falls, the U.S. unemployment rate may be expected to improve slightly. Therefore, the bond market's expectations for the Fed Taper in August and September will also increase.</p><p>However, considering that the peak of this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to be in the second quarter, U.S. interest rates will remain low in the medium and long term, and the February and March-style surge will not be repeated in the second half of the year.</p><p>Finally, it is emphasized once again that under the background of the game between major powers in the United States, maintaining low interest rates in the medium and long term and stimulating economic growth will be the only way for the United States to get out of the quagmire of high debt. U.S. bond yields will remain low and volatile. This is an inevitable choice for the United States to practice MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). It is the inevitable result of the United States' reliance on debt expansion economic stimulus. It is a new way to fabricate \"winning economic competition\" in the context of the game between great powers. The prerequisite for the \"American Dream\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c84bd8f5c84ba1756f2447f601fbab\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>5. Risk warning</p><p>Global economic growth is declining; The easing of monetary policies in China and the United States did not meet expectations; Game risk of great powers.</p>","source":"zydcl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the real reason for the sharp decline in U.S. long-term interest rates?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the real reason for the sharp decline in U.S. long-term interest rates?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 张忆东策略世界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 14:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>SUMMARY</b></p><p><b>Introduction: Recently, the 10-year U.S. bond yield once dropped to the range of 1.1%-1.2%. We believe that:</b></p><p><b>1. The recent epidemic variables are not the core reason for the sharp decline in U.S. long-term interest rates</b></p><p>It is true that since last week, the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in the United States has once again exceeded 40,000, which has aggravated the market's concerns about the economic outlook and boosted the decline in long-term interest rates in the United States, but this is not the core reason.</p><p><ul><li>First of all, the epidemic variables caused by the Delta virus variant have been fermenting since June;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, taking the United Kingdom as an example, although the Delta virus variant has led to an increase in the number of newly confirmed cases, it has not changed the downward trend of the new crown fatality rate caused by vaccines;</p><p></li><li>Third, since July, while long-term interest rates have fallen sharply, the decline in inflation expectations has been relatively moderate, which shows that the economic outlook factor is not the core dominant factor for the decline in long-term interest rates.</p><p></li></ul><b>2. The explanation of the \"flood discharge\" of TGA accounts into the bond market to lower interest rates is doubtful</b></p><p><ul><li>First of all, short-term interest rates are more significantly affected by liquidity, but during the period when the 10-year US Treasury yields declined sharply, the 2-year short-term interest rates declined moderately;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, after April, the Treasury Department's TGA \"flood discharge\" did not lead to an increase in bank reserves. The higher O/N RRP usage showed that funds flowed back to the Federal Reserve, and the transmission to the U.S. bond market was not direct.</p><p></li></ul><b>3. Due to debt ceiling constraints, the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department slowed down significantly in July. The Federal Reserve may be the main force in lowering U.S. long-term interest rates. It is expected that U.S. bond yields will continue to remain low for the rest of July</b></p><p><ul><li>First of all, as we mentioned in 20210318 \"The Mystery of U.S. Debt\", the structure of U.S. debt holders has undergone a qualitative change. Practicing MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), the Federal Reserve is the main buyer of new U.S. bonds, which makes the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department an important variable affecting U.S. bond yields.</p><p></li><li>Secondly, based on debt ceiling constraints, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance slowed down significantly in July. During the period from 0701 to 0716, the net issuance of the Ministry of Finance was-US $6.4 billion; From April to June this year, the monthly net issuance of U.S. Treasury Bond was US $42 billion, US $24 billion, and US $330 billion respectively.</p><p></li><li>Third, at the same time, the Federal Reserve still purchases approximately US $20 billion in Treasury Bond every week according to the monthly bond purchase scale of US $120 billion (approximately US $80 billion in Treasury Bond + US $40 billion in MBS), and continues to buy bonds to lower long-term interest rates.</p><p></li><li>Fourth, the Fed's bond purchase is not a market behavior. Therefore, compared with allocation institutions, its purchase of U.S. bonds regardless of cost will have a more significant impact on U.S. bond prices at the same scale.</p><p></li><li>Finally, it is expected that in the rest of July, the \"surplus grain\" of the TGA account will remain surplus, the demand for bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance will continue to remain sluggish, and the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to remain low; As of July 14, the latest disclosure, based on debt ceiling constraints, a balance of up to $207.5 billion has yet to be spent.</p><p></li></ul><b>4. The intensive issuance of bonds by the Treasury Department from August to September may bring rebound pressure on long-term interest rates in the United States, but it will not repeat the surge in February and March. Low interest rates in the United States will be the norm in the medium and long term.</b></p><p><ul><li>According to the financing plan for the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury Department will issue bonds to raise US $805 billion from July to September, twice that in the second quarter, and the current reduced infrastructure agreement between the two parties has been reached, which may also increase the actual financing needs of the Treasury Department. Based on this calculation, the subsequent bond issuance plan of the U.S. Treasury Department will be concentrated in August and September, and the market's expectations for the Fed Taper will also increase from August to September, so there will be pressure to rebound in U.S. long-term interest rates.</p><p></li><li>However, considering that the peak of this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to be in the second quarter, U.S. interest rates will remain low in the medium and long term, and the February and March-style surge will not be repeated in the second half of the year.</p><p></li><li>Finally, it is emphasized once again that under the background of the game between major powers in the United States, maintaining low interest rates in the medium and long term and stimulating economic growth will be the only way for the United States to get out of the quagmire of high debt.</p><p></li></ul><b>Risk warning: the global economic growth rate is declining; The easing of monetary policies in China and the United States did not meet expectations; Great power game risk</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1. The recent epidemic variables are not the core reason for the sharp decline in U.S. long-term interest rates</p><p>Is the recent epidemic variable the core variable in the downward trend of long-term U.S. bond yields? It's not. It is true that the number of newly confirmed cases in a single day in the United States has once again exceeded 40,000 since last week, which has aggravated the market's concerns about the economic outlook. It has contributed to the decline in long-term interest rates in the United States, but it is not the core reason.</p><p><ul><li>First of all, the epidemic variables caused by the Delta virus variant have been fermenting for a long time. As early as June, the number of newly confirmed cases in Britain, Russia and other countries rose sharply again;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, taking the United Kingdom as an example, although the Delta virus variant has led to an increase in the number of newly confirmed cases, it has not changed the downward trend of the new crown fatality rate caused by vaccines. The mortality rate shown by the average number of deaths on 7 days/the average number of newly confirmed cases on 7 days 2 weeks ago has continued to decline since 2021, which shows that the resistance to severe diseases shows the effect of vaccines.</p><p></li><li>Third, since July, while long-term interest rates have fallen sharply, the decline in inflation expectations has been relatively moderate, which shows that the economic outlook factor is not the core dominant factor for the decline in long-term interest rates. The 10-year inflation expectation only dropped by 10bp from 2.35% to 2.24%, and from 0707-0719, the 10-year inflation expectation only dropped by 11bp from 2.35% to 2.24%, while the nominal interest rate of the 10-year U.S. bond during the same period dropped from 1.48% A sharp drop of 29bp to 1.19%.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/185d62da04d9a7f2268a7b887bb2e661\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69821188ad7f6718dcbd40093826c07a\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>2. The explanation of the \"flood discharge\" of TGA accounts into the bond market to lower interest rates is doubtful</p><p>Some interpretations believe that the recent decline in U.S. bond yields is caused by the release of liquidity from the Treasury Department's TGA spending and its return to the U.S. bond market. We disagree.</p><p>First of all, short-term interest rates are more significantly affected by liquidity, but the downward trend of short-term interest rates is not obvious. If it is caused by TGA \"flood discharge\", then the allocation demand driven by abundant liquidity will first focus on short-term interest rates. In fact, during the period of sharp decline in long-term interest rates, the decline in 2-year short-term interest rates was relatively moderate. During the period from 0701 to 0719, the yield of 2-year U.S. bonds only fell 4bp from 0.25% to 2.21%. Moreover, from a high-frequency perspective, long-term interest rates are in many cases ahead of short-term interest rates.</p><p>Secondly, after April, the \"flood discharge\" of the TGA of the Ministry of Finance did not lead to an increase in bank reserves, and the higher O/N RRP usage showed that funds returned to the Federal Reserve. During the period 0407-0714, TGA accounts decreased by $297.4 billion; During the same period, bank reserves decreased by $29.9 billion instead. During the same period, we saw a sharp increase in O/N RRP usage. Therefore, the decrease and rise in TGA accounts and ON RRP usage shows that the liquidity of the Treasury Department has flowed back to the Federal Reserve, bank reserves have not increased, and the transmission to the U.S. bond market is not direct.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3e7e28b1bd11250edea7bc5b843510\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>3. Due to debt ceiling constraints, the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department slowed down significantly in July. The Federal Reserve may be the main force in lowering U.S. long-term interest rates. It is expected that U.S. bond yields will continue to remain low for the rest of July</p><p>Due to debt ceiling constraints, the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department slowed down significantly in July, while the Federal Reserve still maintained a monthly bond purchase pace of 120 billion (about 80 billion US dollars in Treasury Bond + 40 billion US dollars in MBS), or depressed July The core reason for the long-term interest rate of U.S. bonds. Looking forward to the rest of July, the \"surplus grain\" of TGA accounts will still be surplus, the demand for bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance will continue to be sluggish, and the long-term interest rate in the United States will continue to hover at a low level.</p><p>First of all, as we mentioned in 20210318 \"The Mystery of U.S. Debt\", the structure of U.S. debt holders has undergone a qualitative change. Practicing MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), the Federal Reserve is the main buyer of new U.S. bonds, which makes the pace of bond issuance by the Treasury Department an important variable affecting U.S. bond yields. In 2020, the U.S. government issued a net US $4.54 trillion in Treasury Bond, and the increase in U.S. Treasury Bond accounted for 52% of the net circulation that year. At present, the proportion of foreign capital holding U.S. Treasury Bond has dropped from 47% at the end of 2015 to 34% at the end of 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the proportion of the Fed's holdings in the U.S. Treasury Bond has further increased to 24%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce12a31c1aa3b901bc1ca327e15376b5\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Secondly, the net issuance of Treasury Bond by the Ministry of Finance has turned negative since July. As of the latest period from 0701 to 0716, the net issuance of the Ministry of Finance was-US $6.4 billion; From April to June this year, the monthly net issuance of U.S. Treasury Bond was US $42 billion, US $24 billion, and US $330 billion respectively.</p><p>Third, at the same time, the Federal Reserve still purchases approximately US $20 billion in Treasury Bond every week according to the monthly bond purchase scale of US $120 billion (approximately US $80 billion in Treasury Bond + US $40 billion in MBS), and continues to buy bonds to lower long-term interest rates. For example, from April to June this year, the Federal Reserve's corresponding monthly new holdings were US $72.5 billion, US $72.4 billion, and US $96.2 billion. During the period from 0701 to 0704, the Fed's new holdings of Treasury Bond amounted to $39.2 billion.</p><p>Fourth, from the perspective of micro-transactions, the Fed's bond purchase is not a market behavior. Therefore, compared with allocation institutions, its purchase of U.S. bonds regardless of cost will have a more significant impact on U.S. bond prices at the same scale.</p><p>Finally, it is expected that in the rest of July, the \"surplus grain\" of TGA accounts will remain surplus, the Treasury's bond issuance demand will continue to remain sluggish, and U.S. bond yields will continue to remain low. According to the U.S. Treasury Department's financing plan disclosed on May 3, it is expected to reduce the TGA account to $450 billion on July 31, the debt ceiling maturity date. However, as of the latest disclosure of July 14, there is still $657.5 billion in the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance, with a balance of up to $207.5 billion to be spent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6a2990771c8a9070cdabcbeca18f47\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>4. The intensive issuance of bonds by the Treasury Department from August to September may bring rebound pressure on U.S. long-term interest rates, but it will not repeat the surge in February and March. Low U.S. interest rates will be the norm in the medium and long term</p><p>Based on the intensive bond issuance financing by the Treasury Department in August-September, and the superimposed Taper expectations at that time, U.S. bond yields may be under pressure to rebound in stages in August-September.</p><p>First of all, according to the financing plan for the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury Department will issue bonds to raise US $805 billion from July to September, twice that in the second quarter, and the current reduced infrastructure agreement between the two parties has been reached, which may also increase the actual financing of the Treasury Department needs. Based on this calculation, the subsequent bond issuance plan of the U.S. Treasury Department will be concentrated in August and September, which will bring pressure on the rebound of long-term interest rates in the United States.</p><p>Secondly, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations in June, inflation may still hover at a high level in July, the economic downturn is not obvious, and as the savings rate falls, the U.S. unemployment rate may be expected to improve slightly. Therefore, the bond market's expectations for the Fed Taper in August and September will also increase.</p><p>However, considering that the peak of this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to be in the second quarter, U.S. interest rates will remain low in the medium and long term, and the February and March-style surge will not be repeated in the second half of the year.</p><p>Finally, it is emphasized once again that under the background of the game between major powers in the United States, maintaining low interest rates in the medium and long term and stimulating economic growth will be the only way for the United States to get out of the quagmire of high debt. U.S. bond yields will remain low and volatile. This is an inevitable choice for the United States to practice MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). It is the inevitable result of the United States' reliance on debt expansion economic stimulus. It is a new way to fabricate \"winning economic competition\" in the context of the game between great powers. The prerequisite for the \"American Dream\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c84bd8f5c84ba1756f2447f601fbab\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>5. Risk warning</p><p>Global economic growth is declining; The easing of monetary policies in China and the United States did not meet expectations; Game risk of great powers.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XoB95_kyeOt28iAV8ER8wA\"> 张忆东策略世界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fca69a364eb1ccaf6e9078f1721480","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XoB95_kyeOt28iAV8ER8wA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146283458","content_text":"摘要\n引言：近期10年期美债收益率一度下探至1.1%-1.2%区间，我们认为：\n一、近期疫情变数并非美长端利率大幅下行的核心原因\n诚然，上周开始，美国出现单日新增确诊病例数再次超过4万例的情况，加重了市场对经济前景的担忧，对美长端利率下行形成助推，但其并非核心原因。\n\n首先，Delta病毒变种所引发的疫情变数自6月便已开始发酵；\n其次，以英国为例，虽然Delta病毒变种导致了新增确诊病例数走高，但是其未改变疫苗带来的新冠致死率下降的趋势；\n第三，7月以来，长端利率大幅下行的同时，通胀预期下行相对较为温和，这显示出经济前景因素并非长端利率下行的核心主导因素。\n\n二、TGA账户“泄洪”流入债市拉低利率的解释存疑\n\n首先，短端利率受流动性影响更为显著，但是在10年期美债利率大幅下行的时间段，2年期短端利率下行的幅度比较温和；\n其次， 4月以后，财政部TGA“泄洪”并未带动银行储备金增加，O/N RRP用量走高显示资金回流美联储，对美债市场的传导并不直接。\n\n三、由于债务上限约束，7月财政部发债节奏明显放缓，联储或是压低美长端利率的主要力量，预计7月剩下的时间美债收益率继续维持低位\n\n首先，正如我们在20210318《美债之谜》里提到的，美债的持有者结构发生了质变。践行MMT（现代货币理论），美联储为新增美债的主要购买方，这使得财政部的发债节奏成为影响美债收益率的重要变量。\n其次，基于债务上限约束，财政部7月的发债节奏明显放缓。0701至0716期间财政部净发型额为-64亿美元；而今年4-6月，美国国债月度净发行分别为420亿美元，240亿美元，3300亿美元。\n第三，与此同时，联储依旧按照每个月1200亿美元购债规模（约800亿美元国债+400亿美元MBS），分摊到每个星期约200亿美元购买国债的步伐，不间断、持续地买债压低长端利率。\n第四，联储购债并非市场行为，因此相比于配置机构而言，其不计成本地购入美债，在同等规模下，对于美债价格影响也更显著。\n最后，预计7月接下来的时间，TGA账户“余粮”依旧过剩，财政部的发债需求将继续维持低迷，美债收益率继续维持低位；截至最新披露7月14日，基于债务上限约束，高达2075亿美元的余额有待支出。\n\n四、8-9月财政部密集发债或给美长端利率带来反弹压力，但不会重演2、3月式飙升，中长期美国低利率将是常态。\n\n根据3季度融资计划，美国财政部将在7月至9月发债融资8050亿美元，是2季度的两倍，并且当下两党缩减版的基建协议达成，还可能增加财政部实际融资需求。据此推算，后续美国财政部的发债计划将会集中在8月和9月，叠加8-9月市场对于联储Taper的预期也会有所提升，从而届时美国长端利率存在反弹的压力。\n但是考虑到这一轮美国经济增长和通胀动能的峰值很可能在二季度，所以，中长期美国低利率将保持，下半年不会重演2、3月式飙升。\n最后，再次强调美国大国博弈背景下，中长期保持低利率、刺激经济增长将是美国走出高债务泥潭的必由之路。\n\n风险提示：全球经济增速下行；中、美货币政策宽松不达预期；大国博弈风险\n正文\n一、近期疫情变数并非美长端利率大幅下行的核心原因\n近期疫情变数是美债长端收益率下行的核心变量吗？不是。诚然，上周开始美国出现单日新增确诊病例数再次超过4万例的情况，加重了市场对经济前景的担忧，其对美长端利率下行有助推，但并非核心原因。\n\n首先，Delta病毒变种所引发的疫情变数发酵已久。早在6月份，英国、俄罗斯等国的新增确诊病例数便再度大幅走高；\n其次，以英国为例，虽然Delta病毒变种导致了新增确诊病例数走高，但是其未改变疫苗带来的新冠致死率下降的趋势。7日死亡病例数均值/2周前的7日新增确诊病例数均值所显示的死亡率自从2021年以来持续下降，这说明了对重症的抵御显示了疫苗的作用。\n第三，7月以来，长端利率大幅下行的同时，通胀预期下行相对较为温和，这显示出经济前景因素并非长端利率下行的核心主导因素。10年期通胀预期仅从2.35%仅下降10bp至2.24%，从0707-0719期间，10年期通胀预期仅从2.35%仅下降11bp至2.24%，而同时期10年期美债名义利率从1.48%大幅下降29bp至1.19%。\n\n\n\n二、TGA账户“泄洪”流入债市拉低利率的解释存疑\n有解读认为，近期美债收益率下行是财政部TGA支出释放流动性，回流美债市场导致。我们持不同意见。\n首先，短端利率受流动性影响更为显著，但是短端利率下行并不明显。如果是TGA“泄洪”导致的，那么因为流动性充裕所驱动的配置需求首先聚焦短端利率。事实上，在长端利率大幅下行的时间段，2年期短端利率下行的幅度比较温和，在0701-0719期间，2年期美债收益从0.25%仅下行4bp至2.21%。并且，如果从高频视角下，长端利率很多情况下是领先短端利率下行的。\n其次， 4月以后，财政部TGA“泄洪”并未带动银行储备金增加，O/N RRP用量走高显示资金回流美联储。在0407-0714期间，TGA账户下降了2974亿美元；同时期，银行储备金反而减少了299亿美元，同时期，我们看到O/N RRP用量的大幅走高。因此TGA账户和ON RRP用量的一降一升，显示的是财政部流动性回流美联储，银行准备金并未增加，对美债市场的传导并不直接。\n\n三、由于债务上限约束，7月财政部发债节奏明显放缓，联储或是压低美长端利率的主要力量，预计7月剩下的时间美债收益率继续维持低位\n基于债务上限约束，财政部7月的发债步伐明显放缓，而联储依旧维持每个月1200亿规模（约800亿美元国债+400亿美元MBS）的购债节奏，或是压低7月份美债长端利率的核心原因。展望7月剩下的时间，TGA账户“余粮”依旧过剩，财政部发债需求将继续低迷，美长端利率将继续维持低位徘徊。\n首先，正如我们在20210318《美债之谜》里提到的，美债的持有者结构发生了质变。践行MMT（现代货币理论），美联储为新增美债的主要购买方，这使得财政部的发债节奏成为影响美债收益率的重要变量。2020年美国政府净发行了4.54万亿美元的国债，美国国债增量占当年净发行量的52%。当下，外资持有美国国债的比重由2015年底的47%下降至2020年底的34%。截至2021年6月30日，联储持有占美国国债规模占比进一步升高至24%。\n\n其次，7月至今财政部国债净发行额转负。截至最新从0701至0716期间财政部净发型额为-64亿美元；而今年4-6月，美国国债月度净发行分别为420亿美元，240亿美元，3300亿美元。\n第三，与此同时，联储依旧按照每个月1200亿美元购债规模（约800亿美元国债+400亿美元MBS），分摊到每个星期约200亿美元购买国债的步伐，不间断、持续地买债压低长端利率。比如今年4-6月联储对应当月新增持有为725亿美元，724亿美元，962亿美元。在0701至0704期间，联储新增持有国债规模为392亿美元。\n第四，从微观交易角度，联储购债并非市场行为，因此相比于配置机构而言，其不计成本地购入美债，在同等规模下，对于美债价格影响也更显著。\n最后，预计7月接下来的时间，TGA账户“余粮”依旧过剩，财政部的发债需求将继续维持低迷，美债收益率继续维持低位。根据5月3日披露美国财政部融资计划，预计在债务上限到期日7月31日将TGA账户下降至4500亿美元。但是截至最新披露7月14日，财政部TGA账户还有6575亿美元，高达2075亿美元的余额有待支出。\n\n四、8-9月财政部密集发债或给美长端利率带来反弹压力，但不会重演2、3月式飙升，中长期美国低利率将是常态\n基于财政部将会在8-9月密集发债融资，以及叠加届时的Taper预期，美债收益率在8-9月或存在阶段性反弹的压力。\n首先，根据3季度融资计划，美国财政部将在7月至9月发债融资8050亿美元，是2季度的两倍，并且当下两党缩减版的基建协议达成，还可能增加财政部实际融资需求。据此推算，后续美国财政部的发债计划将会集中在8月和9月，从而带来美国长端利率反弹的压力。\n其次，6月份美国CPI超预期，7月份通胀或仍会高位徘徊，经济回落不明显，且随着储蓄率回落，美国失业率或有望小幅改善，所以，8、9月份债券市场对于联储Taper的预期也会有所提升。\n但是考虑到这一轮美国经济增长和通胀动能的峰值很可能在二季度，所以，中长期美国低利率将保持，下半年不会重演2、3月式飙升。\n最后，再次强调美国大国博弈背景下，中长期保持低利率、刺激经济增长将是美国走出高债务泥潭的必由之路。美债收益率将维持低位震荡，这是美国实践MMT（现代货币理论）的必然选择，是美国依赖债务扩张型经济刺激之路的必然结果，是大国博弈背景下编造“赢得经济竞争”的新“美国梦”的前提条件。\n\n五、风险提示\n全球经济增速下行；中、美货币政策宽松不达预期；大国博弈风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":176046061,"gmtCreate":1626849366953,"gmtModify":1703479246178,"author":{"id":"4089951304751690","authorId":"4089951304751690","name":"haruharu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089951304751690","idStr":"4089951304751690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176046061","repostId":"1198728322","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198728322","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626848907,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198728322?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 14:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bezos \"goes to heaven\", Virgin Galactic once fell sharply, what happened?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198728322","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"蓝色起源的好消息显然对维珍银河来说是个坏消息。\n\n当地时间7月20日上午，世界首富、美国亚马逊公司创始人杰夫·贝索斯乘坐其公司蓝色起源的运载火箭在美国德克萨斯沙漠上空翱翔约107 公里，并安全返回地球","content":"<p>The good news for Blue Origin is obviously good for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a>It's bad news. On the morning of July 20, local time, the world's richest man, the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Company founder Jeff Bezos soared about 107 kilometers over the Texas desert in the United States aboard his company's Blue Origin launch vehicle and returned safely to Earth. The launch is Blue Origin's first manned space flight and marks another step in the race to build a space tourism business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f0247cd617893985205da44466925e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, the share price of space tourism company Virgin Galactic plummeted on Tuesday, falling nearly 9% during the session, and narrowing to 1.14% at the close. Previously, on July 11, 70-year-old richard branson, the founder of Virgin Galactic, successfully returned from an 85.9-kilometer-high orbit on SpaceShip-2, becoming the first founder of a commercial aerospace company to board space, nine days earlier than Blue Origin founder Bezos.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4d314424b805eb05fbce1786d3affb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>How are these two things related?</p><p>Simply put, Virgin Galactic is no longer the only successful space tourism franchise. Nine days after Virgin Galactic successfully launched founder DeBranson into space, former Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos' space company Blue Origin completed its first manned flight. That weighed on Virgin Galactic stock on Tuesday.</p><p>Nine days ago, Virgin Galactic took the lead in realizing the first \"full commercial launch\" authorized by the FAA and started the space tourism business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e6ae9546cf10d525c768e975e14cf7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Virgin Galactic is targeting a huge space tourism market-there are 1.5 million millionaires in the United States alone, 6 million millionaires who may want to spend $250,000 on a space ticket, and for them, it's not out of reach, while there are probably 20 million millionaires around the world. While that market is huge, it has now been cut in half as Virgin Galactic will have to take a piece of Blue Origin's pie. According to foreign media reports, Bezos said in his speech after his successful flight on July 20, local time that the demand in the space tourism market is very high, and \"Blue Origin has sold nearly $100 million worth of future passenger tickets.\" Bezos also said that Blue Origin will carry out two more manned missions this year.</p><p>Is it reasonable for Virgin Galactic's stock to plummet?</p><p>Maybe not. Even the remaining 10 million customers, divided by the six passengers that the Virgin Galactic space shuttle can carry at a time, means that Virgin Galactic still has a lot of potential business in the future, and there are still many flights before consumer demand is exhausted.</p><p>Still, investors need to realize that after Blue Origin's successful space flight, there is still one boot left unfallen. Within a short year or three, we could see SpaceX enter the space tourism race with its new Starship-a ship that can actually reach, stay in, and travel through space; Transport 100 visitors at a time; Do it all at a price that neither Blue Origin nor Virgin Galactic can match. This is the real crisis in Virgin Galactic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ad74a3df40a3ddbe37438033c7bd57\" tg-width=\"3000\" tg-height=\"2005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But compared to the stock's recent rally, competition may not be a significant factor.</p><p>Virgin Galactic stock has been hot lately, but stocks that rise eventually fall. Investors are bidding for stocks in anticipation of good news. Now that the good news of Branson's space trip success has passed, stock buyers have paused, awaiting the next big announcement or event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3412e9662e9b3da05900f93a227e5f86\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another flight test or the date of possible commencement of normal commercial operation can be catalysts. Wall Street expects scheduled flights from Virgin Galactic to begin around the end of this year. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert recently said he thinks early 2022 is more likely.</p><p>Herbert rates Galaxy shares a Buy with a $48 price target. That's up from $35 before the spaceflight in July, when the stock was trading near $50.</p><p>Another reason for Virgin Galactic's weakness is the announcement of stock sales. Virgin Galactic said July 12 that it would raise up to $500 million through the sale of new shares. More shares dilute the shares of existing shareholders. More sellers than buyers-even if the seller is the company itself-always causes the stock price to fall.</p><p>Virgin Galactic is still up about 35% this year, better than the S&P 500's 15% gain.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bezos \"goes to heaven\", Virgin Galactic once fell sharply, what happened?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBezos \"goes to heaven\", Virgin Galactic once fell sharply, what happened?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 14:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The good news for Blue Origin is obviously good for<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a>It's bad news. On the morning of July 20, local time, the world's richest man, the United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Company founder Jeff Bezos soared about 107 kilometers over the Texas desert in the United States aboard his company's Blue Origin launch vehicle and returned safely to Earth. The launch is Blue Origin's first manned space flight and marks another step in the race to build a space tourism business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f0247cd617893985205da44466925e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, the share price of space tourism company Virgin Galactic plummeted on Tuesday, falling nearly 9% during the session, and narrowing to 1.14% at the close. Previously, on July 11, 70-year-old richard branson, the founder of Virgin Galactic, successfully returned from an 85.9-kilometer-high orbit on SpaceShip-2, becoming the first founder of a commercial aerospace company to board space, nine days earlier than Blue Origin founder Bezos.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4d314424b805eb05fbce1786d3affb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>How are these two things related?</p><p>Simply put, Virgin Galactic is no longer the only successful space tourism franchise. Nine days after Virgin Galactic successfully launched founder DeBranson into space, former Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos' space company Blue Origin completed its first manned flight. That weighed on Virgin Galactic stock on Tuesday.</p><p>Nine days ago, Virgin Galactic took the lead in realizing the first \"full commercial launch\" authorized by the FAA and started the space tourism business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e6ae9546cf10d525c768e975e14cf7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Virgin Galactic is targeting a huge space tourism market-there are 1.5 million millionaires in the United States alone, 6 million millionaires who may want to spend $250,000 on a space ticket, and for them, it's not out of reach, while there are probably 20 million millionaires around the world. While that market is huge, it has now been cut in half as Virgin Galactic will have to take a piece of Blue Origin's pie. According to foreign media reports, Bezos said in his speech after his successful flight on July 20, local time that the demand in the space tourism market is very high, and \"Blue Origin has sold nearly $100 million worth of future passenger tickets.\" Bezos also said that Blue Origin will carry out two more manned missions this year.</p><p>Is it reasonable for Virgin Galactic's stock to plummet?</p><p>Maybe not. Even the remaining 10 million customers, divided by the six passengers that the Virgin Galactic space shuttle can carry at a time, means that Virgin Galactic still has a lot of potential business in the future, and there are still many flights before consumer demand is exhausted.</p><p>Still, investors need to realize that after Blue Origin's successful space flight, there is still one boot left unfallen. Within a short year or three, we could see SpaceX enter the space tourism race with its new Starship-a ship that can actually reach, stay in, and travel through space; Transport 100 visitors at a time; Do it all at a price that neither Blue Origin nor Virgin Galactic can match. This is the real crisis in Virgin Galactic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ad74a3df40a3ddbe37438033c7bd57\" tg-width=\"3000\" tg-height=\"2005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But compared to the stock's recent rally, competition may not be a significant factor.</p><p>Virgin Galactic stock has been hot lately, but stocks that rise eventually fall. Investors are bidding for stocks in anticipation of good news. Now that the good news of Branson's space trip success has passed, stock buyers have paused, awaiting the next big announcement or event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3412e9662e9b3da05900f93a227e5f86\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Another flight test or the date of possible commencement of normal commercial operation can be catalysts. Wall Street expects scheduled flights from Virgin Galactic to begin around the end of this year. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert recently said he thinks early 2022 is more likely.</p><p>Herbert rates Galaxy shares a Buy with a $48 price target. That's up from $35 before the spaceflight in July, when the stock was trading near $50.</p><p>Another reason for Virgin Galactic's weakness is the announcement of stock sales. Virgin Galactic said July 12 that it would raise up to $500 million through the sale of new shares. More shares dilute the shares of existing shareholders. More sellers than buyers-even if the seller is the company itself-always causes the stock price to fall.</p><p>Virgin Galactic is still up about 35% this year, better than the S&P 500's 15% gain.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3d3a3c8cb374234f20ed2a295e3781c","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","SPCE":"维珍银河"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198728322","content_text":"蓝色起源的好消息显然对维珍银河来说是个坏消息。\n\n当地时间7月20日上午，世界首富、美国亚马逊公司创始人杰夫·贝索斯乘坐其公司蓝色起源的运载火箭在美国德克萨斯沙漠上空翱翔约107 公里，并安全返回地球。这次发射为蓝色起源公司首次载人太空飞行，标志着在打造太空旅游业务的竞争中又迈出了一步。\n\n与之相对的是，周二太空旅游公司维珍银河股价出现暴跌，盘中一度跌近9%，收盘时跌幅缩窄至1.14％。此前7月11日，维珍银河创始人、70岁的理查德·布兰森搭乘太空船二号成功从85.9公里高的轨道返回，成为首位登上太空的商业航天企业创始人，比蓝色起源创始人贝佐斯早9天。\n\n这两件事存在怎样的关联？\n简单来说，维珍银河不再是唯一一家成功的太空旅游特许经营公司。在维珍银河成功将创始人德布兰森送入太空九天后，亚马逊前首席执行官杰夫贝索斯的太空公司蓝色起源完成了首次载人飞行。这对周二的维珍银河股票造成压力。\n九天前，维珍银河率先实现美国联邦航空局授权的第一次“全面商业发射”，开启了太空旅游业务。\n\n维珍银河瞄准的是一个巨大的太空旅游市场——仅在美国就有150万千万富翁，600万百万富翁，他们可能想花25万美元购买一张太空票，对他们来说，并非遥不可及，而全世界大概有2000万百万富翁。尽管这个市场很大，但现在它已经被削减了一半，因为维珍银河将不得不分蓝色起源一杯羹。据外媒报道，贝索斯当地时间7月20日成功飞行后的演讲中称，太空旅游市场需求非常高，“蓝色起源已经售出了价值近1亿美元的未来客运机票”。贝索斯还称，蓝色起源今年还将再执行两次载人飞行任务。\n那维珍银河股票大跌是否合理？\n也许不是。即使是剩下1000万客户，除以维珍银河航天飞机每次可搭载的6名乘客，也意味着维珍银河公司未来还有很多潜在的业务，在耗尽消费者需求之前，还有很多航班。\n尽管如此，投资者需要意识到，蓝色起源成功太空飞行之后，还有一只靴子没有落下。在短短的一年或三年内，我们可能看到SpaceX带着它的新型星际飞船进入太空旅游竞赛——一艘能够真正到达、停留在太空中并穿越太空的飞船；一次运送100名游客；以蓝色起源和维珍银河都无法企及的价格完成这一切。这才是维珍银河真正的危机。\n\n但与该股最近的上涨相比，竞争可能不是一个重要因素。\n维珍银河股票最近一直火爆，但上涨的股票最终会下跌。投资者因预期好消息而竞购股票。既然布兰森太空旅行成功的好消息已经过去，股票买家已经暂停，等待下一个重大公告或事件。\n\n另一次飞行试验或可能开始正常商业运行的日期，都可以成为催化剂。华尔街预计维珍银河将在今年年底左右开始进行定期航班。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特（Ken Herbert）最近表示，他认为2022年初的可能性更大。\n赫伯特将银河公司股票评级为买入，目标价为48美元。这比7月太空飞行前的35美元有所上升，当时该股的股价接近50美元。\n维珍银河走弱的另一个原因是宣布出售股票。维珍银河7月12日表示，将通过出售新股筹集至多5亿美元。更多的股票稀释了现有股东的股份。卖家比买家多——即使卖方是公司本身——总是导致股价下跌。\n维珍银河今年以来仍上涨约35%，好于标普500指数的15%涨幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176048541,"gmtCreate":1626849339383,"gmtModify":1703479245512,"author":{"id":"4089951304751690","authorId":"4089951304751690","name":"haruharu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089951304751690","idStr":"4089951304751690"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176048541","repostId":"1146283458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":545,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
