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haruharu
2021-07-21
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haruharu
2021-07-21
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What is the real reason for the sharp decline in long-term interest rates in the United States?
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14:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What is the real reason for the sharp decline in long-term interest rates in the United States?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146283458","media":" 张忆东策略世界","summary":"摘要\n引言：近期10年期美债收益率一度下探至1.1%-1.2%区间，我们认为：\n一、近期疫情变数并非美长端利率大幅下行的核心原因\n诚然，上周开始，美国出现单日新增确诊病例数再次超过4万例的情况，加重了","content":"<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Introduction: Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once dropped to the range of 1.1%-1.2%. We think:</b></p><p><b>1. Recent epidemic variables are not the core reasons for the sharp decline in long-term interest rates in the United States</b></p><p>It is true that since last week, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States in a single day has once again exceeded 40,000, which has aggravated the market's worries about the economic prospects and boosted the downward trend of long-term interest rates in the United States, but it is not the core reason.</p><p><ul><li>First of all, the epidemic variables caused by the Delta virus variant have been fermenting since June;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, taking the UK as an example, although the Delta virus variant has led to an increase in the number of newly confirmed cases, it has not changed the downward trend of COVID-19 fatality rate brought by vaccines;</p><p></li><li>Third, since July, while the long-term interest rate has dropped sharply, the downward trend of inflation expectations has been relatively moderate, which shows that the economic outlook is not the core dominant factor of the long-term interest rate downward trend.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the explanation of TGA account \"flood discharge\" into the bond market to lower interest rates is doubtful</b></p><p><ul><li>First of all, the short-term interest rate is more significantly affected by liquidity, but during the period when the 10-year US Treasury yields drops sharply, the 2-year short-term interest rate drops moderately;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, after April, the \"flood discharge\" of the Treasury TGA did not drive the increase of bank reserves, and the higher usage of O/N RRP showed that funds returned to the Federal Reserve, which was not directly transmitted to the US debt market.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, due to the constraint of the debt ceiling, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance slowed down significantly in July, and the Federal Reserve may be the main force to lower the long-term interest rate of the United States. It is expected that the yield of U.S. bonds will remain low for the rest of July</b></p><p><ul><li>First of all, as we mentioned in 20210318 \"The Mystery of U.S. Debt\", the holder structure of U.S. debt has undergone a qualitative change. Practicing MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), the Federal Reserve is the main buyer of new U.S. bonds, which makes the Treasury's bond issuance rhythm an important variable affecting the yield of U.S. bonds.</p><p></li><li>Secondly, based on the debt ceiling constraint, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance in July slowed down significantly. Treasury net hairstyles for the period 0701 to 0716 were-$6.4 billion; From April to June this year, the monthly net issuance of Treasury Bond in the United States was $42 billion, $24 billion and $330 billion respectively.</p><p></li><li>Third, at the same time, according to the monthly bond purchase scale of 120 billion US dollars (about 80 billion US dollars Treasury Bond +40 billion US dollars MBS), the Federal Reserve is still allocated to the pace of about 20 billion US dollars per week to buy Treasury Bond, and continuously buying bonds to lower the long-term interest rate.</p><p></li><li>Fourthly, the Fed's bond purchase is not a market behavior. Therefore, compared with the allocation institution, its purchase of U.S. bonds regardless of cost has a more significant impact on the price of U.S. bonds on the same scale.</p><p></li><li>Finally, it is expected that in the next time of July, there will still be a surplus of \"surplus grain\" in TGA account, the bond issuance demand of the Ministry of Finance will continue to remain sluggish, and the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to remain low; As of the latest disclosure July 14, a balance of up to $207.5 billion is pending spending based on debt ceiling constraints.</p><p></li></ul><b>4. From August to September, the intensive issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance may bring rebound pressure to the long-term interest rate in the United States, but it will not repeat the soaring in February and March. Low interest rates in the United States will be the norm in the medium and long term.</b></p><p><ul><li>According to the financing plan for the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury will issue bonds to raise $805 billion from July to September, twice that of the second quarter. At present, the infrastructure agreement of the two parties has been reached, which may also increase the actual financing demand of the Treasury. According to this calculation, the subsequent bond issuance plan of the U.S. Treasury Department will be concentrated in August and September, and the market's expectation for the Fed Taper will also increase from August to September, so that there will be pressure on the long-term interest rate of the United States to rebound.</p><p></li><li>However, considering that the peak of this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to be in the second quarter, the low interest rate in the United States will remain in the medium and long term, and the soaring in February and March will not be repeated in the second half of the year.</p><p></li><li>Finally, it is emphasized again that under the background of the great power game in the United States, keeping low interest rates and stimulating economic growth in the medium and long term will be the only way for the United States to get out of the quagmire of high debt.</p><p></li></ul><b>Risk warning: global economic growth is declining; The easing of monetary policy in China and the United States fell short of expectations; Great Power Game Risk</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1. Recent epidemic variables are not the core reasons for the sharp decline in long-term interest rates in the United States</p><p>Is the recent epidemic variable the core variable of the downward trend of the long-term yield of U.S. debt? Not. It is true that since last week, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States in a single day once again exceeded 40,000, which aggravated the market's worries about the economic prospects, which helped the downward trend of long-term interest rates in the United States, but it was not the core reason.</p><p><ul><li>First of all, the epidemic variables caused by the Delta virus variant have been fermenting for a long time. As early as June, the number of newly confirmed cases in Britain, Russia and other countries rose sharply again;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, taking the UK as an example, although the Delta virus variant has led to a higher number of newly confirmed cases, it has not changed the downward trend of COVID-19 fatality rate brought by vaccines. The mortality rate indicated by the average number of 7-day deaths/the average number of 7-day newly confirmed cases from 2 weeks ago has continued to decline since 2021, which illustrates that resistance to severe illness shows the role of vaccines.</p><p></li><li>Third, since July, while the long-term interest rate has dropped sharply, the downward trend of inflation expectations has been relatively moderate, which shows that the economic outlook is not the core dominant factor of the long-term interest rate downward trend. The 10-year inflation expectation only dropped by 10bp from 2.35% to 2.24%. From 0707-0719, the 10-year inflation expectation only dropped by 11bp from 2.35% to 2.24%, while the nominal interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped sharply by 29bp from 1.48% to 1.19% during the same period.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/185d62da04d9a7f2268a7b887bb2e661\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69821188ad7f6718dcbd40093826c07a\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Second, the explanation of TGA account \"flood discharge\" into the bond market to lower interest rates is doubtful</p><p>It is interpreted that the recent decline in U.S. bond yields is caused by the release of liquidity by the Treasury's TGA expenditure and the return of the U.S. bond market. We disagree.</p><p>First of all, the short-term interest rate is more significantly affected by liquidity, but the downward trend of short-term interest rate is not obvious. If it is caused by TGA's \"flood discharge\", then the allocation demand driven by abundant liquidity focuses on the short-end interest rate first. In fact, during the period when the long-term interest rate dropped sharply, the two-year short-term interest rate dropped moderately. During the period 0701-0719, the yield of the two-year U.S. bond only dropped by 4bp from 0.25% to 2.21%. Moreover, from the perspective of high frequency, the long-end interest rate is leading the short-end interest rate in many cases.</p><p>Secondly, after April, the \"flood discharge\" of the Treasury TGA did not drive the increase of bank reserves, and the higher usage of O/N RRP showed that funds returned to the Federal Reserve. During 0407-0714, TGA accounts fell by $297.4 billion; In the same period, bank reserves instead decreased by $29.9 billion, and in the same period, we saw a sharp increase in O/N RRP usage. Therefore, the decline and rise of the usage of TGA account and ON RRP shows that the liquidity of the Treasury has returned to the Federal Reserve, and the bank reserves have not increased, so the transmission to the US debt market is not direct.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3e7e28b1bd11250edea7bc5b843510\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Third, due to the constraint of the debt ceiling, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance slowed down significantly in July, and the Federal Reserve may be the main force to lower the long-term interest rate of the United States. It is expected that the yield of U.S. bonds will remain low for the rest of July</p><p>Based on the debt ceiling constraint, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance slowed down significantly in July, while the Federal Reserve still maintained the bond purchase rhythm of 120 billion dollars (about 80 billion dollars Treasury Bond +40 billion dollars MBS) per month, or the core reason for lowering the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt in July. Looking forward to the rest of July, there is still a surplus of \"surplus grain\" in TGA account, the demand for bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance will continue to be sluggish, and the long-term interest rate in the United States will continue to hover at a low level.</p><p>First of all, as we mentioned in 20210318 \"The Mystery of U.S. Debt\", the holder structure of U.S. debt has undergone a qualitative change. Practicing MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), the Federal Reserve is the main buyer of new U.S. bonds, which makes the Treasury's bond issuance rhythm an important variable affecting the yield of U.S. bonds. In 2020, the U.S. government issued a net $4.54 trillion in Treasury Bond, and the incremental U.S. Treasury Bond accounted for 52% of the net issuance that year. At present, the proportion of foreign investment in U.S. Treasury Bond has dropped from 47% at the end of 2015 to 34% at the end of 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the Fed's holdings have further increased to 24% of the size of the U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce12a31c1aa3b901bc1ca327e15376b5\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Secondly, since July, the net issuance of Treasury Bond of the Ministry of Finance has turned negative. Treasury net hairstyles were-6.4 billion as of the latest period from 0701 to 0716; From April to June this year, the monthly net issuance of Treasury Bond in the United States was $42 billion, $24 billion and $330 billion respectively.</p><p>Third, at the same time, according to the monthly bond purchase scale of 120 billion US dollars (about 80 billion US dollars Treasury Bond +40 billion US dollars MBS), the Federal Reserve is still allocated to the pace of about 20 billion US dollars per week to buy Treasury Bond, and it continuously buys bonds to lower the long-term interest rate. For example, from April to June this year, the Fed's new holdings in that month were $72.5 billion, $72.4 billion and $96.2 billion. Between 0701 and 0704, the Fed's new holdings of Treasury Bond were $39.2 billion.</p><p>Fourthly, from the perspective of micro-transactions, the Fed's bond purchase is not a market behavior. Therefore, compared with the allocation institutions, its purchase of U.S. bonds regardless of cost has a more significant impact on the price of U.S. bonds on the same scale.</p><p>Finally, it is expected that in the next time of July, there will still be a surplus of \"surplus grain\" in TGA account, the bond issuance demand of the Ministry of Finance will continue to be sluggish, and the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to be low. According to the May 3 disclosure of the U.S. Treasury Department financing plan, it is expected to lower the TGA account to $450 billion on July 31, the debt ceiling maturity date. But as of the latest disclosure July 14, there is $657.5 billion left in the Treasury TGA account, with a whopping $207.5 billion in balance to be spent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6a2990771c8a9070cdabcbeca18f47\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>4. The intensive bond issuance by the Treasury Department from August to September may bring rebound pressure on the long-term interest rate of the United States, but it will not repeat the soaring in February and March. Low interest rates in the United States will be the norm in the medium and long term</p><p>Based on the intensive bond issuance financing by the Ministry of Finance in August-September, and the superimposed Taper expectation at that time, there may be pressure for the yield of U.S. bonds to rebound in stages in August-September.</p><p>First of all, according to the financing plan for the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury will issue bonds to raise $805 billion from July to September, twice that of the second quarter. Moreover, the current bipartisan reduced version of the infrastructure agreement has been reached, which may also increase the actual financing demand of the Treasury. According to this calculation, the follow-up bond issuance plan of the U.S. Treasury Department will be concentrated in August and September, which will bring pressure on the long-term interest rate of the United States to rebound.</p><p>Secondly, the CPI in the United States exceeded expectations in June, inflation may still hover at a high level in July, and the economic decline is not obvious. Moreover, with the decline of the savings rate, the unemployment rate in the United States may be expected to improve slightly. Therefore, the bond market's expectation for the Fed Taper will also increase in August and September.</p><p>However, considering that the peak of this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to be in the second quarter, the low interest rate in the United States will remain in the medium and long term, and the soaring in February and March will not be repeated in the second half of the year.</p><p>Finally, it is emphasized again that under the background of the great power game in the United States, keeping low interest rates and stimulating economic growth in the medium and long term will be the only way for the United States to get out of the quagmire of high debt. The yield of U.S. bonds will remain low and fluctuate, which is an inevitable choice for the United States to practice MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), an inevitable result of the United States' dependence on debt expansion economic stimulus, and a prerequisite for fabricating a new \"American dream\" of \"winning economic competition\" under the background of big-power games.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c84bd8f5c84ba1756f2447f601fbab\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>V. Risk warning</p><p>The global economic growth rate declined; The easing of monetary policy in China and the United States fell short of expectations; Great Power Game Risk.</p>","source":"zydcl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is the real reason for the sharp decline in long-term interest rates in the United States?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is the real reason for the sharp decline in long-term interest rates in the United States?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\"> 张忆东策略世界</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 14:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>Introduction: Recently, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds once dropped to the range of 1.1%-1.2%. We think:</b></p><p><b>1. Recent epidemic variables are not the core reasons for the sharp decline in long-term interest rates in the United States</b></p><p>It is true that since last week, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States in a single day has once again exceeded 40,000, which has aggravated the market's worries about the economic prospects and boosted the downward trend of long-term interest rates in the United States, but it is not the core reason.</p><p><ul><li>First of all, the epidemic variables caused by the Delta virus variant have been fermenting since June;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, taking the UK as an example, although the Delta virus variant has led to an increase in the number of newly confirmed cases, it has not changed the downward trend of COVID-19 fatality rate brought by vaccines;</p><p></li><li>Third, since July, while the long-term interest rate has dropped sharply, the downward trend of inflation expectations has been relatively moderate, which shows that the economic outlook is not the core dominant factor of the long-term interest rate downward trend.</p><p></li></ul><b>Second, the explanation of TGA account \"flood discharge\" into the bond market to lower interest rates is doubtful</b></p><p><ul><li>First of all, the short-term interest rate is more significantly affected by liquidity, but during the period when the 10-year US Treasury yields drops sharply, the 2-year short-term interest rate drops moderately;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, after April, the \"flood discharge\" of the Treasury TGA did not drive the increase of bank reserves, and the higher usage of O/N RRP showed that funds returned to the Federal Reserve, which was not directly transmitted to the US debt market.</p><p></li></ul><b>Third, due to the constraint of the debt ceiling, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance slowed down significantly in July, and the Federal Reserve may be the main force to lower the long-term interest rate of the United States. It is expected that the yield of U.S. bonds will remain low for the rest of July</b></p><p><ul><li>First of all, as we mentioned in 20210318 \"The Mystery of U.S. Debt\", the holder structure of U.S. debt has undergone a qualitative change. Practicing MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), the Federal Reserve is the main buyer of new U.S. bonds, which makes the Treasury's bond issuance rhythm an important variable affecting the yield of U.S. bonds.</p><p></li><li>Secondly, based on the debt ceiling constraint, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance in July slowed down significantly. Treasury net hairstyles for the period 0701 to 0716 were-$6.4 billion; From April to June this year, the monthly net issuance of Treasury Bond in the United States was $42 billion, $24 billion and $330 billion respectively.</p><p></li><li>Third, at the same time, according to the monthly bond purchase scale of 120 billion US dollars (about 80 billion US dollars Treasury Bond +40 billion US dollars MBS), the Federal Reserve is still allocated to the pace of about 20 billion US dollars per week to buy Treasury Bond, and continuously buying bonds to lower the long-term interest rate.</p><p></li><li>Fourthly, the Fed's bond purchase is not a market behavior. Therefore, compared with the allocation institution, its purchase of U.S. bonds regardless of cost has a more significant impact on the price of U.S. bonds on the same scale.</p><p></li><li>Finally, it is expected that in the next time of July, there will still be a surplus of \"surplus grain\" in TGA account, the bond issuance demand of the Ministry of Finance will continue to remain sluggish, and the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to remain low; As of the latest disclosure July 14, a balance of up to $207.5 billion is pending spending based on debt ceiling constraints.</p><p></li></ul><b>4. From August to September, the intensive issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance may bring rebound pressure to the long-term interest rate in the United States, but it will not repeat the soaring in February and March. Low interest rates in the United States will be the norm in the medium and long term.</b></p><p><ul><li>According to the financing plan for the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury will issue bonds to raise $805 billion from July to September, twice that of the second quarter. At present, the infrastructure agreement of the two parties has been reached, which may also increase the actual financing demand of the Treasury. According to this calculation, the subsequent bond issuance plan of the U.S. Treasury Department will be concentrated in August and September, and the market's expectation for the Fed Taper will also increase from August to September, so that there will be pressure on the long-term interest rate of the United States to rebound.</p><p></li><li>However, considering that the peak of this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to be in the second quarter, the low interest rate in the United States will remain in the medium and long term, and the soaring in February and March will not be repeated in the second half of the year.</p><p></li><li>Finally, it is emphasized again that under the background of the great power game in the United States, keeping low interest rates and stimulating economic growth in the medium and long term will be the only way for the United States to get out of the quagmire of high debt.</p><p></li></ul><b>Risk warning: global economic growth is declining; The easing of monetary policy in China and the United States fell short of expectations; Great Power Game Risk</b></p><p><b>text</b></p><p>1. Recent epidemic variables are not the core reasons for the sharp decline in long-term interest rates in the United States</p><p>Is the recent epidemic variable the core variable of the downward trend of the long-term yield of U.S. debt? Not. It is true that since last week, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States in a single day once again exceeded 40,000, which aggravated the market's worries about the economic prospects, which helped the downward trend of long-term interest rates in the United States, but it was not the core reason.</p><p><ul><li>First of all, the epidemic variables caused by the Delta virus variant have been fermenting for a long time. As early as June, the number of newly confirmed cases in Britain, Russia and other countries rose sharply again;</p><p></li><li>Secondly, taking the UK as an example, although the Delta virus variant has led to a higher number of newly confirmed cases, it has not changed the downward trend of COVID-19 fatality rate brought by vaccines. The mortality rate indicated by the average number of 7-day deaths/the average number of 7-day newly confirmed cases from 2 weeks ago has continued to decline since 2021, which illustrates that resistance to severe illness shows the role of vaccines.</p><p></li><li>Third, since July, while the long-term interest rate has dropped sharply, the downward trend of inflation expectations has been relatively moderate, which shows that the economic outlook is not the core dominant factor of the long-term interest rate downward trend. The 10-year inflation expectation only dropped by 10bp from 2.35% to 2.24%. From 0707-0719, the 10-year inflation expectation only dropped by 11bp from 2.35% to 2.24%, while the nominal interest rate of 10-year U.S. bonds dropped sharply by 29bp from 1.48% to 1.19% during the same period.</p><p></li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/185d62da04d9a7f2268a7b887bb2e661\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69821188ad7f6718dcbd40093826c07a\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Second, the explanation of TGA account \"flood discharge\" into the bond market to lower interest rates is doubtful</p><p>It is interpreted that the recent decline in U.S. bond yields is caused by the release of liquidity by the Treasury's TGA expenditure and the return of the U.S. bond market. We disagree.</p><p>First of all, the short-term interest rate is more significantly affected by liquidity, but the downward trend of short-term interest rate is not obvious. If it is caused by TGA's \"flood discharge\", then the allocation demand driven by abundant liquidity focuses on the short-end interest rate first. In fact, during the period when the long-term interest rate dropped sharply, the two-year short-term interest rate dropped moderately. During the period 0701-0719, the yield of the two-year U.S. bond only dropped by 4bp from 0.25% to 2.21%. Moreover, from the perspective of high frequency, the long-end interest rate is leading the short-end interest rate in many cases.</p><p>Secondly, after April, the \"flood discharge\" of the Treasury TGA did not drive the increase of bank reserves, and the higher usage of O/N RRP showed that funds returned to the Federal Reserve. During 0407-0714, TGA accounts fell by $297.4 billion; In the same period, bank reserves instead decreased by $29.9 billion, and in the same period, we saw a sharp increase in O/N RRP usage. Therefore, the decline and rise of the usage of TGA account and ON RRP shows that the liquidity of the Treasury has returned to the Federal Reserve, and the bank reserves have not increased, so the transmission to the US debt market is not direct.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3e7e28b1bd11250edea7bc5b843510\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Third, due to the constraint of the debt ceiling, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance slowed down significantly in July, and the Federal Reserve may be the main force to lower the long-term interest rate of the United States. It is expected that the yield of U.S. bonds will remain low for the rest of July</p><p>Based on the debt ceiling constraint, the pace of bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance slowed down significantly in July, while the Federal Reserve still maintained the bond purchase rhythm of 120 billion dollars (about 80 billion dollars Treasury Bond +40 billion dollars MBS) per month, or the core reason for lowering the long-term interest rate of U.S. debt in July. Looking forward to the rest of July, there is still a surplus of \"surplus grain\" in TGA account, the demand for bond issuance by the Ministry of Finance will continue to be sluggish, and the long-term interest rate in the United States will continue to hover at a low level.</p><p>First of all, as we mentioned in 20210318 \"The Mystery of U.S. Debt\", the holder structure of U.S. debt has undergone a qualitative change. Practicing MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), the Federal Reserve is the main buyer of new U.S. bonds, which makes the Treasury's bond issuance rhythm an important variable affecting the yield of U.S. bonds. In 2020, the U.S. government issued a net $4.54 trillion in Treasury Bond, and the incremental U.S. Treasury Bond accounted for 52% of the net issuance that year. At present, the proportion of foreign investment in U.S. Treasury Bond has dropped from 47% at the end of 2015 to 34% at the end of 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the Fed's holdings have further increased to 24% of the size of the U.S. Treasury Bond.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce12a31c1aa3b901bc1ca327e15376b5\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Secondly, since July, the net issuance of Treasury Bond of the Ministry of Finance has turned negative. Treasury net hairstyles were-6.4 billion as of the latest period from 0701 to 0716; From April to June this year, the monthly net issuance of Treasury Bond in the United States was $42 billion, $24 billion and $330 billion respectively.</p><p>Third, at the same time, according to the monthly bond purchase scale of 120 billion US dollars (about 80 billion US dollars Treasury Bond +40 billion US dollars MBS), the Federal Reserve is still allocated to the pace of about 20 billion US dollars per week to buy Treasury Bond, and it continuously buys bonds to lower the long-term interest rate. For example, from April to June this year, the Fed's new holdings in that month were $72.5 billion, $72.4 billion and $96.2 billion. Between 0701 and 0704, the Fed's new holdings of Treasury Bond were $39.2 billion.</p><p>Fourthly, from the perspective of micro-transactions, the Fed's bond purchase is not a market behavior. Therefore, compared with the allocation institutions, its purchase of U.S. bonds regardless of cost has a more significant impact on the price of U.S. bonds on the same scale.</p><p>Finally, it is expected that in the next time of July, there will still be a surplus of \"surplus grain\" in TGA account, the bond issuance demand of the Ministry of Finance will continue to be sluggish, and the yield of U.S. bonds will continue to be low. According to the May 3 disclosure of the U.S. Treasury Department financing plan, it is expected to lower the TGA account to $450 billion on July 31, the debt ceiling maturity date. But as of the latest disclosure July 14, there is $657.5 billion left in the Treasury TGA account, with a whopping $207.5 billion in balance to be spent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6a2990771c8a9070cdabcbeca18f47\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>4. The intensive bond issuance by the Treasury Department from August to September may bring rebound pressure on the long-term interest rate of the United States, but it will not repeat the soaring in February and March. Low interest rates in the United States will be the norm in the medium and long term</p><p>Based on the intensive bond issuance financing by the Ministry of Finance in August-September, and the superimposed Taper expectation at that time, there may be pressure for the yield of U.S. bonds to rebound in stages in August-September.</p><p>First of all, according to the financing plan for the third quarter, the U.S. Treasury will issue bonds to raise $805 billion from July to September, twice that of the second quarter. Moreover, the current bipartisan reduced version of the infrastructure agreement has been reached, which may also increase the actual financing demand of the Treasury. According to this calculation, the follow-up bond issuance plan of the U.S. Treasury Department will be concentrated in August and September, which will bring pressure on the long-term interest rate of the United States to rebound.</p><p>Secondly, the CPI in the United States exceeded expectations in June, inflation may still hover at a high level in July, and the economic decline is not obvious. Moreover, with the decline of the savings rate, the unemployment rate in the United States may be expected to improve slightly. Therefore, the bond market's expectation for the Fed Taper will also increase in August and September.</p><p>However, considering that the peak of this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to be in the second quarter, the low interest rate in the United States will remain in the medium and long term, and the soaring in February and March will not be repeated in the second half of the year.</p><p>Finally, it is emphasized again that under the background of the great power game in the United States, keeping low interest rates and stimulating economic growth in the medium and long term will be the only way for the United States to get out of the quagmire of high debt. The yield of U.S. bonds will remain low and fluctuate, which is an inevitable choice for the United States to practice MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), an inevitable result of the United States' dependence on debt expansion economic stimulus, and a prerequisite for fabricating a new \"American dream\" of \"winning economic competition\" under the background of big-power games.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5c84bd8f5c84ba1756f2447f601fbab\" tg-width=\"884\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>V. Risk warning</p><p>The global economic growth rate declined; The easing of monetary policy in China and the United States fell short of expectations; Great Power Game Risk.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XoB95_kyeOt28iAV8ER8wA\"> 张忆东策略世界</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8fca69a364eb1ccaf6e9078f1721480","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XoB95_kyeOt28iAV8ER8wA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146283458","content_text":"摘要\n引言：近期10年期美债收益率一度下探至1.1%-1.2%区间，我们认为：\n一、近期疫情变数并非美长端利率大幅下行的核心原因\n诚然，上周开始，美国出现单日新增确诊病例数再次超过4万例的情况，加重了市场对经济前景的担忧，对美长端利率下行形成助推，但其并非核心原因。\n\n首先，Delta病毒变种所引发的疫情变数自6月便已开始发酵；\n其次，以英国为例，虽然Delta病毒变种导致了新增确诊病例数走高，但是其未改变疫苗带来的新冠致死率下降的趋势；\n第三，7月以来，长端利率大幅下行的同时，通胀预期下行相对较为温和，这显示出经济前景因素并非长端利率下行的核心主导因素。\n\n二、TGA账户“泄洪”流入债市拉低利率的解释存疑\n\n首先，短端利率受流动性影响更为显著，但是在10年期美债利率大幅下行的时间段，2年期短端利率下行的幅度比较温和；\n其次， 4月以后，财政部TGA“泄洪”并未带动银行储备金增加，O/N RRP用量走高显示资金回流美联储，对美债市场的传导并不直接。\n\n三、由于债务上限约束，7月财政部发债节奏明显放缓，联储或是压低美长端利率的主要力量，预计7月剩下的时间美债收益率继续维持低位\n\n首先，正如我们在20210318《美债之谜》里提到的，美债的持有者结构发生了质变。践行MMT（现代货币理论），美联储为新增美债的主要购买方，这使得财政部的发债节奏成为影响美债收益率的重要变量。\n其次，基于债务上限约束，财政部7月的发债节奏明显放缓。0701至0716期间财政部净发型额为-64亿美元；而今年4-6月，美国国债月度净发行分别为420亿美元，240亿美元，3300亿美元。\n第三，与此同时，联储依旧按照每个月1200亿美元购债规模（约800亿美元国债+400亿美元MBS），分摊到每个星期约200亿美元购买国债的步伐，不间断、持续地买债压低长端利率。\n第四，联储购债并非市场行为，因此相比于配置机构而言，其不计成本地购入美债，在同等规模下，对于美债价格影响也更显著。\n最后，预计7月接下来的时间，TGA账户“余粮”依旧过剩，财政部的发债需求将继续维持低迷，美债收益率继续维持低位；截至最新披露7月14日，基于债务上限约束，高达2075亿美元的余额有待支出。\n\n四、8-9月财政部密集发债或给美长端利率带来反弹压力，但不会重演2、3月式飙升，中长期美国低利率将是常态。\n\n根据3季度融资计划，美国财政部将在7月至9月发债融资8050亿美元，是2季度的两倍，并且当下两党缩减版的基建协议达成，还可能增加财政部实际融资需求。据此推算，后续美国财政部的发债计划将会集中在8月和9月，叠加8-9月市场对于联储Taper的预期也会有所提升，从而届时美国长端利率存在反弹的压力。\n但是考虑到这一轮美国经济增长和通胀动能的峰值很可能在二季度，所以，中长期美国低利率将保持，下半年不会重演2、3月式飙升。\n最后，再次强调美国大国博弈背景下，中长期保持低利率、刺激经济增长将是美国走出高债务泥潭的必由之路。\n\n风险提示：全球经济增速下行；中、美货币政策宽松不达预期；大国博弈风险\n正文\n一、近期疫情变数并非美长端利率大幅下行的核心原因\n近期疫情变数是美债长端收益率下行的核心变量吗？不是。诚然，上周开始美国出现单日新增确诊病例数再次超过4万例的情况，加重了市场对经济前景的担忧，其对美长端利率下行有助推，但并非核心原因。\n\n首先，Delta病毒变种所引发的疫情变数发酵已久。早在6月份，英国、俄罗斯等国的新增确诊病例数便再度大幅走高；\n其次，以英国为例，虽然Delta病毒变种导致了新增确诊病例数走高，但是其未改变疫苗带来的新冠致死率下降的趋势。7日死亡病例数均值/2周前的7日新增确诊病例数均值所显示的死亡率自从2021年以来持续下降，这说明了对重症的抵御显示了疫苗的作用。\n第三，7月以来，长端利率大幅下行的同时，通胀预期下行相对较为温和，这显示出经济前景因素并非长端利率下行的核心主导因素。10年期通胀预期仅从2.35%仅下降10bp至2.24%，从0707-0719期间，10年期通胀预期仅从2.35%仅下降11bp至2.24%，而同时期10年期美债名义利率从1.48%大幅下降29bp至1.19%。\n\n\n\n二、TGA账户“泄洪”流入债市拉低利率的解释存疑\n有解读认为，近期美债收益率下行是财政部TGA支出释放流动性，回流美债市场导致。我们持不同意见。\n首先，短端利率受流动性影响更为显著，但是短端利率下行并不明显。如果是TGA“泄洪”导致的，那么因为流动性充裕所驱动的配置需求首先聚焦短端利率。事实上，在长端利率大幅下行的时间段，2年期短端利率下行的幅度比较温和，在0701-0719期间，2年期美债收益从0.25%仅下行4bp至2.21%。并且，如果从高频视角下，长端利率很多情况下是领先短端利率下行的。\n其次， 4月以后，财政部TGA“泄洪”并未带动银行储备金增加，O/N RRP用量走高显示资金回流美联储。在0407-0714期间，TGA账户下降了2974亿美元；同时期，银行储备金反而减少了299亿美元，同时期，我们看到O/N RRP用量的大幅走高。因此TGA账户和ON RRP用量的一降一升，显示的是财政部流动性回流美联储，银行准备金并未增加，对美债市场的传导并不直接。\n\n三、由于债务上限约束，7月财政部发债节奏明显放缓，联储或是压低美长端利率的主要力量，预计7月剩下的时间美债收益率继续维持低位\n基于债务上限约束，财政部7月的发债步伐明显放缓，而联储依旧维持每个月1200亿规模（约800亿美元国债+400亿美元MBS）的购债节奏，或是压低7月份美债长端利率的核心原因。展望7月剩下的时间，TGA账户“余粮”依旧过剩，财政部发债需求将继续低迷，美长端利率将继续维持低位徘徊。\n首先，正如我们在20210318《美债之谜》里提到的，美债的持有者结构发生了质变。践行MMT（现代货币理论），美联储为新增美债的主要购买方，这使得财政部的发债节奏成为影响美债收益率的重要变量。2020年美国政府净发行了4.54万亿美元的国债，美国国债增量占当年净发行量的52%。当下，外资持有美国国债的比重由2015年底的47%下降至2020年底的34%。截至2021年6月30日，联储持有占美国国债规模占比进一步升高至24%。\n\n其次，7月至今财政部国债净发行额转负。截至最新从0701至0716期间财政部净发型额为-64亿美元；而今年4-6月，美国国债月度净发行分别为420亿美元，240亿美元，3300亿美元。\n第三，与此同时，联储依旧按照每个月1200亿美元购债规模（约800亿美元国债+400亿美元MBS），分摊到每个星期约200亿美元购买国债的步伐，不间断、持续地买债压低长端利率。比如今年4-6月联储对应当月新增持有为725亿美元，724亿美元，962亿美元。在0701至0704期间，联储新增持有国债规模为392亿美元。\n第四，从微观交易角度，联储购债并非市场行为，因此相比于配置机构而言，其不计成本地购入美债，在同等规模下，对于美债价格影响也更显著。\n最后，预计7月接下来的时间，TGA账户“余粮”依旧过剩，财政部的发债需求将继续维持低迷，美债收益率继续维持低位。根据5月3日披露美国财政部融资计划，预计在债务上限到期日7月31日将TGA账户下降至4500亿美元。但是截至最新披露7月14日，财政部TGA账户还有6575亿美元，高达2075亿美元的余额有待支出。\n\n四、8-9月财政部密集发债或给美长端利率带来反弹压力，但不会重演2、3月式飙升，中长期美国低利率将是常态\n基于财政部将会在8-9月密集发债融资，以及叠加届时的Taper预期，美债收益率在8-9月或存在阶段性反弹的压力。\n首先，根据3季度融资计划，美国财政部将在7月至9月发债融资8050亿美元，是2季度的两倍，并且当下两党缩减版的基建协议达成，还可能增加财政部实际融资需求。据此推算，后续美国财政部的发债计划将会集中在8月和9月，从而带来美国长端利率反弹的压力。\n其次，6月份美国CPI超预期，7月份通胀或仍会高位徘徊，经济回落不明显，且随着储蓄率回落，美国失业率或有望小幅改善，所以，8、9月份债券市场对于联储Taper的预期也会有所提升。\n但是考虑到这一轮美国经济增长和通胀动能的峰值很可能在二季度，所以，中长期美国低利率将保持，下半年不会重演2、3月式飙升。\n最后，再次强调美国大国博弈背景下，中长期保持低利率、刺激经济增长将是美国走出高债务泥潭的必由之路。美债收益率将维持低位震荡，这是美国实践MMT（现代货币理论）的必然选择，是美国依赖债务扩张型经济刺激之路的必然结果，是大国博弈背景下编造“赢得经济竞争”的新“美国梦”的前提条件。\n\n五、风险提示\n全球经济增速下行；中、美货币政策宽松不达预期；大国博弈风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":176046061,"gmtCreate":1626849366953,"gmtModify":1703479246178,"author":{"id":"4089951304751690","authorId":"4089951304751690","name":"haruharu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089951304751690","idStr":"4089951304751690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176046061","repostId":"1198728322","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176048541,"gmtCreate":1626849339383,"gmtModify":1703479245512,"author":{"id":"4089951304751690","authorId":"4089951304751690","name":"haruharu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089951304751690","idStr":"4089951304751690"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176048541","repostId":"1146283458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
