钱包君你要振作起来 personal page - To The Moon

钱包君你要振作起来

钱包君你要振作起来

钱包大人你不能再瘦下去了

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-12

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Reminder: The United States will enter daylight saving time from March 12, and U.S. stocks will open one hour earlier

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-10

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@Envision Research:[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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JPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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JPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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A surge of 192% month-on-month! Global central banks continue to grab gold in January

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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Powell has no choice but to defeat inflation with "recession"

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Why is the Federal Reserve the key to A-shares again? Can the Chinese market get out of its independent market

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Non-farm payrolls have exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be "another addition" on Friday?

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Market news: The U.S. safety supervision agency is investigating the possible falling off of Tesla's steering wheel

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Market news: The U.S. safety supervision agency is investigating the possible falling off of Tesla's steering wheel

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Lei Jun's new story

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-04

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-02

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Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-on-year, fiscal 2024 performance guidance fell short of expectations

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-01

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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13:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The United States will enter daylight saving time from March 12, and U.S. stocks will open one hour earlier","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120362149","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国2023年夏令时将于2023年3月12日美东时间02：00开始，至2023年11月5日美东时间02：00终止。届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Daylight Saving Time 2023 will begin at 02:00 EST on March 12, 2023 and end at 02:00 EST on November 5, 2023. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, from 21:30 Monday to Friday to 04:00 the next day; March 13 is the first trading day for U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 09:30 ~ 16:00 (closed at noon); Beijing time: 21:30 ~ 04:00 the next day</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04:00 ~ 09:30; Beijing Time: 16:00 ~ 21:30</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00 ~ 20:00; Beijing Time: 04:00 ~ 08:00</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The United States will enter daylight saving time from March 12, and U.S. stocks will open one hour earlier</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The United States will enter daylight saving time from March 12, and U.S. stocks will open one hour earlier\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-06 13:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Daylight Saving Time 2023 will begin at 02:00 EST on March 12, 2023 and end at 02:00 EST on November 5, 2023. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, from 21:30 Monday to Friday to 04:00 the next day; March 13 is the first trading day for U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 09:30 ~ 16:00 (closed at noon); Beijing time: 21:30 ~ 04:00 the next day</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04:00 ~ 09:30; Beijing Time: 16:00 ~ 21:30</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00 ~ 20:00; Beijing Time: 04:00 ~ 08:00</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120362149","content_text":"美国2023年夏令时将于2023年3月12日美东时间02：00开始，至2023年11月5日美东时间02：00终止。届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00；3月13日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。交易时间美国东部时间：09：30~16：00 (午间不休市)；北京时间：21：30~次日04：00盘前交易时间美国东部时间：04：00~09：30；北京时间：16：00~21:30盘后交易时间美国东部时间：16：00~20：00；北京时间：04：00~08：00（注：夏令时为每年3月的第二个星期日至11月的第一个星期日，冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949171377,"gmtCreate":1678460041199,"gmtModify":1678460045037,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949171377","repostId":"9949328649","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949328649,"gmtCreate":1678377533582,"gmtModify":1678378068478,"author":{"id":"4124253684228252","authorId":"4124253684228252","name":"Envision Research","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5fb35ced789c59ffb4c3d0600289d984","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4124253684228252","authorIdStr":"4124253684228252"},"themes":[],"title":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds ","htmlText":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","listText":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","text":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec1383b799fd10fca73734e18af27f43","width":"975","height":"482"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949328649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315570,"gmtCreate":1678362711390,"gmtModify":1678362713241,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315570","repostId":"1155614396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155614396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678355356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155614396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 17:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155614396","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an acceleration of selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 index tested the level around 3,900 again after falling below the resistance level of 4,060-4,089.</b>We believe that,<b>A break below 3900 could lead to an acceleration in selling pressure</b>, as this point has been a bifurcation point for the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank regards 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after falling below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic situation forecast is,<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will again test the low of 3,500 in October 2022, bottoming out the cycle, which depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve has reached 2022 The fact that it bottomed out in September.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations for the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that,<b>The odds of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3,200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 have increased.</b></p><p>Although it has fallen back recently,<b>However, compared with the curve shape of the money market (based on terminal interest rate expectations and the rate cut within 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, with an overestimate of 5%.</b>The rest of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model is roughly in line with the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, affected by weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other things being equal, there's additional downward pressure on stocks.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures are at risk of falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through successfully in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A breakdown below this support level could lead not only to substantial liquidation but also to a general deterioration in risky market sentiment</b>, because copper is often regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in multiple risk markets are again threatened to fall below, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, along with two frequently mentioned CTA triggers (3-month and 6-month trend momentum) nearby. In addition, this area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement of the October-February rally, the internal trend line containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, serving either as support or resistance during this period (see the dotted blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the October 2022 low of 3,491 and the repeated invalidation of our bullish 4100 resistance zone in the first few months of 2023 leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a counter-trend rise in a continued bear market. In our view, a breakdown below the support level at 3888-3971 would not only validate this assessment, but also suspect that it would accelerate the downside, which could first lead to a drop to the December low at 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction line from October at 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3,698 on November 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and a large number of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe a low in a cycle in the first half of '23 could retest this support level. However, the Fed's hawkish expectations raised the probability of a risk scenario following a series of better-than-expected economic data, with the S&P 500 slipping towards support near 3,200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has bottomed out when it was lowered by 30 basis points in September 2022. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The last time the bear market flattened was at the September low, and in the next few weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bad news for economic growth may not be good for stocks in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we pointed out recently, the value of the S&P 500 Index appears to be overvalued compared to the trend of the money market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate are used as independent variables,<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, more than 1.5 standard deviations compared to the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Activity Surprise Index looks consistent with the remaining price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months after inflation data really picked up in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term could cause the S&P 500 to move slightly lower, as the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a 65 basis point shift towards a dovish) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index 1-February's surge in pullback/retracement coincides with a hawkish shift in policy expectations, and the S&P 500 will be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 index falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets related to China's reopening and a rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on futures copper, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakthrough point, January 61.8% Fibonacci pullback, July 38.2% Fibonacci pullback and January-February and other band targets (see chart below).<b>Falling below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt an increase in liquidation, but also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4 '22, which may generally worsen high-risk market sentiment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 17:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an acceleration of selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 index tested the level around 3,900 again after falling below the resistance level of 4,060-4,089.</b>We believe that,<b>A break below 3900 could lead to an acceleration in selling pressure</b>, as this point has been a bifurcation point for the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank regards 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after falling below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic situation forecast is,<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will again test the low of 3,500 in October 2022, bottoming out the cycle, which depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve has reached 2022 The fact that it bottomed out in September.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations for the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that,<b>The odds of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3,200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 have increased.</b></p><p>Although it has fallen back recently,<b>However, compared with the curve shape of the money market (based on terminal interest rate expectations and the rate cut within 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, with an overestimate of 5%.</b>The rest of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model is roughly in line with the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, affected by weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other things being equal, there's additional downward pressure on stocks.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures are at risk of falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through successfully in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A breakdown below this support level could lead not only to substantial liquidation but also to a general deterioration in risky market sentiment</b>, because copper is often regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in multiple risk markets are again threatened to fall below, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, along with two frequently mentioned CTA triggers (3-month and 6-month trend momentum) nearby. In addition, this area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement of the October-February rally, the internal trend line containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, serving either as support or resistance during this period (see the dotted blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the October 2022 low of 3,491 and the repeated invalidation of our bullish 4100 resistance zone in the first few months of 2023 leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a counter-trend rise in a continued bear market. In our view, a breakdown below the support level at 3888-3971 would not only validate this assessment, but also suspect that it would accelerate the downside, which could first lead to a drop to the December low at 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction line from October at 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3,698 on November 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and a large number of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe a low in a cycle in the first half of '23 could retest this support level. However, the Fed's hawkish expectations raised the probability of a risk scenario following a series of better-than-expected economic data, with the S&P 500 slipping towards support near 3,200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has bottomed out when it was lowered by 30 basis points in September 2022. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The last time the bear market flattened was at the September low, and in the next few weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bad news for economic growth may not be good for stocks in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we pointed out recently, the value of the S&P 500 Index appears to be overvalued compared to the trend of the money market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate are used as independent variables,<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, more than 1.5 standard deviations compared to the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Activity Surprise Index looks consistent with the remaining price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months after inflation data really picked up in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term could cause the S&P 500 to move slightly lower, as the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a 65 basis point shift towards a dovish) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index 1-February's surge in pullback/retracement coincides with a hawkish shift in policy expectations, and the S&P 500 will be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 index falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets related to China's reopening and a rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on futures copper, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakthrough point, January 61.8% Fibonacci pullback, July 38.2% Fibonacci pullback and January-February and other band targets (see chart below).<b>Falling below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt an increase in liquidation, but also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4 '22, which may generally worsen high-risk market sentiment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155614396","content_text":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900点附近水平。我行认为，跌破3900点可能会导致抛压加速，因为自2022年5月以来，该点一直是标普500的分叉点，目前还与基于动量策略的几个趋势跟踪触发水平保持一致。我行将3760-3764点视为跌破3900点后的初步目标区间。我行的基本情况预测是，23年上半年标普500指数将再次测试2022年10月3500点的低点，为该周期筑底，这在一定程度上取决于5年期/10年期美债收益率曲线已在2022年9月触底的事实。在20世纪70年代供给受限时期，宏观环境受一系列通胀冲击主导时，股市与国债收益率曲线呈正相关，并在收益率曲线建立周期低点后的1-5个月内触底。随着最近鹰派预期让收益率曲线突破2022年9月低点，未来每当曲线触底，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。因此，我行认为，标普500指数进一步下滑至3200点附近的下一支撑位并在2023年上半年触底的可能性有所增加。虽然最近有所回落，但跟货币市场的曲线形状相比（基于终端利率预期和在达到终端利率后24个月内的降息幅度），标普500指数仍然过高，高估达5%。该回归模型得出的标普500指数其余的表现与摩根大通编制的美国经济活动意外指数大致相符，尤其是在2022年年中通胀飙升后的几个月。短期内，受经济数据疲软影响，股市恐怕难以提振。事实上，该模型显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，股市还会出现额外的下行压力。期货铜有跌破386-396关键支撑位的风险。我们认为，2023年一季度行情未能成功上破，如果跌破该支撑位，可能不仅会导致大量平仓，还可能导致高风险市场情绪普遍恶化，因为铜通常被视为全球制造业需求晴雨表。多个风险市场的关键支撑位再度面临跌破威胁，包括标普500指数在跌破2月10日4060点和2月17日4089点的阻力位后，鲍威尔的鹰派言论使标普500指数滑向3900点的关键汇合点附近（见下图）。标普500指数的50日、100日和200日均线都在该点附近汇聚，附近还有两个经常被提及的CTA触发点位（3个月和6个月趋势动量）。另外，该区域还包括10月至2月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤，包含2022年熊市反弹的内部趋势线，以及3900点拐点。自2022年5月以来，3900点就成为该指数的一个分叉点，在此期间要么作为支撑位，要么是阻力位（见下图蓝色虚线）。从模式角度来看，从2022年10月3491点低点上涨的震荡性质，以及2023年前几个月我们看好的4100点阻力区反复失效，这使我们相信，反弹只是持续熊市中的逆势上涨。在我们看来，跌破3888-3971点支撑位不仅会验证这一评估，而且怀疑其会使下行加速，首先可能会跌至12月3764低点和10月的61.8%斐波那契回调线3760点。其他中期支撑位包括11月3日的3698点低点，10月78.6%回调点的3642点，以及去年秋季支撑市场的3500点附近大量的长线点位。在我们2023年的展望中，我们认为23年上半年某个周期的低点可能会重新测试该支撑位。然而，在一系列好于预期的经济数据公布后，美联储的鹰派预期增加了风险情形出现的概率，在筑底之前，标普500指数滑向3200附近的支撑位。更乐观的前景在一定程度上依赖于这样一种观点，即5年期/10年期国债收益率曲线已经在2022年9月降低30基点时筑底。在20世纪60年代末到70年代末的供给侧受限和反复通胀冲击期间，股市与收益率曲线成正相关，并在曲线见底后的1-5个月内见底（见下图绿色圈的价格走势）。最近一次熊市趋平是在9月的低点，未来几周，曲线触底时，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。对经济增长不利的消息，短期内未必对股市有利短期内，鹰派预期最终也会对股价走势构成压力。正如我们最近指出，与货币市场曲线的走势相比，标普500指数的价值似乎被高估了（见下图1）。在18个月的回归模型中，使用终端利率预期和达到终端利率后24个月的降息幅度作为自变量，该指数现在被高估了5%以上，与研究期间的剩余价格表现相比，高出了1.5个标准差以上。摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数看起来与研究期间的标普500指数剩余价格走势一致，特别是在去年年中通胀数据真正回升后的几个月中（见下图2）。在此期间，经济活动意外指数几乎能解释剩余股票指数的一半表现。这些回归模型表明，由于短期内经济数据弱于预期，美联储政策利率预期的正常化可能导致标普500指数小幅走低，因为该指数的过度剩余丰富性比市场根据历史敏感性向较低终端利率的调整更为极端。换句话说，纳入所有这些因素的12个月回归模型表明，假设终端利率为5%（向鸽派65个基点转向），之后降息200个基点（与当前定价相差不远），摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数1-2月的飙升回撤，与政策预期的鹰派转向同时发生，标准普尔500指数的价值会为3875点。最后，正如我们上次指出，全球其他市场也位于关键技术位之上，如果随着标普500指数跌破3900点，这些市场也开始跌破各自关键技术位，就有可能触发投资者避险趋势。具体来说，许多与中国重新开放和市场活动反弹相关的市场正在接近1月的突破区间，某些情况下，移动平均线的震荡频率变小。我们最近重点关注期货铜，因为铜经常被视为全球制造业需求的风向标。工业金属期货市场正接近400点以下的关键支撑位，包括第四季度区间高点/1月突破点位、1月61.8%斐波那契回调、7月38.2%斐波那契回调和1-2月等波段目标位（见下图）。跌破这一明显的拐点不仅会促使平仓增加，而且无法维持22年第四季度的行情突破，可能使高风险市场情绪普遍恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315213,"gmtCreate":1678362705733,"gmtModify":1678362709450,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315213","repostId":"1155614396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155614396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678355356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155614396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 17:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155614396","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an acceleration of selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 index tested the level around 3,900 again after falling below the resistance level of 4,060-4,089.</b>We believe that,<b>A break below 3900 could lead to an acceleration in selling pressure</b>, as this point has been a bifurcation point for the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank regards 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after falling below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic situation forecast is,<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will again test the low of 3,500 in October 2022, bottoming out the cycle, which depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve has reached 2022 The fact that it bottomed out in September.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations for the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that,<b>The odds of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3,200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 have increased.</b></p><p>Although it has fallen back recently,<b>However, compared with the curve shape of the money market (based on terminal interest rate expectations and the rate cut within 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, with an overestimate of 5%.</b>The rest of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model is roughly in line with the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, affected by weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other things being equal, there's additional downward pressure on stocks.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures are at risk of falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through successfully in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A breakdown below this support level could lead not only to substantial liquidation but also to a general deterioration in risky market sentiment</b>, because copper is often regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in multiple risk markets are again threatened to fall below, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, along with two frequently mentioned CTA triggers (3-month and 6-month trend momentum) nearby. In addition, this area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement of the October-February rally, the internal trend line containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, serving either as support or resistance during this period (see the dotted blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the October 2022 low of 3,491 and the repeated invalidation of our bullish 4100 resistance zone in the first few months of 2023 leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a counter-trend rise in a continued bear market. In our view, a breakdown below the support level at 3888-3971 would not only validate this assessment, but also suspect that it would accelerate the downside, which could first lead to a drop to the December low at 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction line from October at 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3,698 on November 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and a large number of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe a low in a cycle in the first half of '23 could retest this support level. However, the Fed's hawkish expectations raised the probability of a risk scenario following a series of better-than-expected economic data, with the S&P 500 slipping towards support near 3,200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has bottomed out when it was lowered by 30 basis points in September 2022. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The last time the bear market flattened was at the September low, and in the next few weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bad news for economic growth may not be good for stocks in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we pointed out recently, the value of the S&P 500 Index appears to be overvalued compared to the trend of the money market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate are used as independent variables,<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, more than 1.5 standard deviations compared to the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Activity Surprise Index looks consistent with the remaining price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months after inflation data really picked up in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term could cause the S&P 500 to move slightly lower, as the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a 65 basis point shift towards a dovish) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index 1-February's surge in pullback/retracement coincides with a hawkish shift in policy expectations, and the S&P 500 will be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 index falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets related to China's reopening and a rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on futures copper, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakthrough point, January 61.8% Fibonacci pullback, July 38.2% Fibonacci pullback and January-February and other band targets (see chart below).<b>Falling below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt an increase in liquidation, but also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4 '22, which may generally worsen high-risk market sentiment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 17:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an acceleration of selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 index tested the level around 3,900 again after falling below the resistance level of 4,060-4,089.</b>We believe that,<b>A break below 3900 could lead to an acceleration in selling pressure</b>, as this point has been a bifurcation point for the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank regards 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after falling below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic situation forecast is,<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will again test the low of 3,500 in October 2022, bottoming out the cycle, which depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve has reached 2022 The fact that it bottomed out in September.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations for the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that,<b>The odds of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3,200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 have increased.</b></p><p>Although it has fallen back recently,<b>However, compared with the curve shape of the money market (based on terminal interest rate expectations and the rate cut within 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, with an overestimate of 5%.</b>The rest of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model is roughly in line with the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, affected by weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other things being equal, there's additional downward pressure on stocks.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures are at risk of falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through successfully in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A breakdown below this support level could lead not only to substantial liquidation but also to a general deterioration in risky market sentiment</b>, because copper is often regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in multiple risk markets are again threatened to fall below, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, along with two frequently mentioned CTA triggers (3-month and 6-month trend momentum) nearby. In addition, this area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement of the October-February rally, the internal trend line containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, serving either as support or resistance during this period (see the dotted blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the October 2022 low of 3,491 and the repeated invalidation of our bullish 4100 resistance zone in the first few months of 2023 leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a counter-trend rise in a continued bear market. In our view, a breakdown below the support level at 3888-3971 would not only validate this assessment, but also suspect that it would accelerate the downside, which could first lead to a drop to the December low at 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction line from October at 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3,698 on November 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and a large number of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe a low in a cycle in the first half of '23 could retest this support level. However, the Fed's hawkish expectations raised the probability of a risk scenario following a series of better-than-expected economic data, with the S&P 500 slipping towards support near 3,200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has bottomed out when it was lowered by 30 basis points in September 2022. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The last time the bear market flattened was at the September low, and in the next few weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bad news for economic growth may not be good for stocks in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we pointed out recently, the value of the S&P 500 Index appears to be overvalued compared to the trend of the money market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate are used as independent variables,<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, more than 1.5 standard deviations compared to the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Activity Surprise Index looks consistent with the remaining price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months after inflation data really picked up in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term could cause the S&P 500 to move slightly lower, as the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a 65 basis point shift towards a dovish) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index 1-February's surge in pullback/retracement coincides with a hawkish shift in policy expectations, and the S&P 500 will be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 index falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets related to China's reopening and a rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on futures copper, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakthrough point, January 61.8% Fibonacci pullback, July 38.2% Fibonacci pullback and January-February and other band targets (see chart below).<b>Falling below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt an increase in liquidation, but also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4 '22, which may generally worsen high-risk market sentiment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155614396","content_text":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900点附近水平。我行认为，跌破3900点可能会导致抛压加速，因为自2022年5月以来，该点一直是标普500的分叉点，目前还与基于动量策略的几个趋势跟踪触发水平保持一致。我行将3760-3764点视为跌破3900点后的初步目标区间。我行的基本情况预测是，23年上半年标普500指数将再次测试2022年10月3500点的低点，为该周期筑底，这在一定程度上取决于5年期/10年期美债收益率曲线已在2022年9月触底的事实。在20世纪70年代供给受限时期，宏观环境受一系列通胀冲击主导时，股市与国债收益率曲线呈正相关，并在收益率曲线建立周期低点后的1-5个月内触底。随着最近鹰派预期让收益率曲线突破2022年9月低点，未来每当曲线触底，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。因此，我行认为，标普500指数进一步下滑至3200点附近的下一支撑位并在2023年上半年触底的可能性有所增加。虽然最近有所回落，但跟货币市场的曲线形状相比（基于终端利率预期和在达到终端利率后24个月内的降息幅度），标普500指数仍然过高，高估达5%。该回归模型得出的标普500指数其余的表现与摩根大通编制的美国经济活动意外指数大致相符，尤其是在2022年年中通胀飙升后的几个月。短期内，受经济数据疲软影响，股市恐怕难以提振。事实上，该模型显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，股市还会出现额外的下行压力。期货铜有跌破386-396关键支撑位的风险。我们认为，2023年一季度行情未能成功上破，如果跌破该支撑位，可能不仅会导致大量平仓，还可能导致高风险市场情绪普遍恶化，因为铜通常被视为全球制造业需求晴雨表。多个风险市场的关键支撑位再度面临跌破威胁，包括标普500指数在跌破2月10日4060点和2月17日4089点的阻力位后，鲍威尔的鹰派言论使标普500指数滑向3900点的关键汇合点附近（见下图）。标普500指数的50日、100日和200日均线都在该点附近汇聚，附近还有两个经常被提及的CTA触发点位（3个月和6个月趋势动量）。另外，该区域还包括10月至2月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤，包含2022年熊市反弹的内部趋势线，以及3900点拐点。自2022年5月以来，3900点就成为该指数的一个分叉点，在此期间要么作为支撑位，要么是阻力位（见下图蓝色虚线）。从模式角度来看，从2022年10月3491点低点上涨的震荡性质，以及2023年前几个月我们看好的4100点阻力区反复失效，这使我们相信，反弹只是持续熊市中的逆势上涨。在我们看来，跌破3888-3971点支撑位不仅会验证这一评估，而且怀疑其会使下行加速，首先可能会跌至12月3764低点和10月的61.8%斐波那契回调线3760点。其他中期支撑位包括11月3日的3698点低点，10月78.6%回调点的3642点，以及去年秋季支撑市场的3500点附近大量的长线点位。在我们2023年的展望中，我们认为23年上半年某个周期的低点可能会重新测试该支撑位。然而，在一系列好于预期的经济数据公布后，美联储的鹰派预期增加了风险情形出现的概率，在筑底之前，标普500指数滑向3200附近的支撑位。更乐观的前景在一定程度上依赖于这样一种观点，即5年期/10年期国债收益率曲线已经在2022年9月降低30基点时筑底。在20世纪60年代末到70年代末的供给侧受限和反复通胀冲击期间，股市与收益率曲线成正相关，并在曲线见底后的1-5个月内见底（见下图绿色圈的价格走势）。最近一次熊市趋平是在9月的低点，未来几周，曲线触底时，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。对经济增长不利的消息，短期内未必对股市有利短期内，鹰派预期最终也会对股价走势构成压力。正如我们最近指出，与货币市场曲线的走势相比，标普500指数的价值似乎被高估了（见下图1）。在18个月的回归模型中，使用终端利率预期和达到终端利率后24个月的降息幅度作为自变量，该指数现在被高估了5%以上，与研究期间的剩余价格表现相比，高出了1.5个标准差以上。摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数看起来与研究期间的标普500指数剩余价格走势一致，特别是在去年年中通胀数据真正回升后的几个月中（见下图2）。在此期间，经济活动意外指数几乎能解释剩余股票指数的一半表现。这些回归模型表明，由于短期内经济数据弱于预期，美联储政策利率预期的正常化可能导致标普500指数小幅走低，因为该指数的过度剩余丰富性比市场根据历史敏感性向较低终端利率的调整更为极端。换句话说，纳入所有这些因素的12个月回归模型表明，假设终端利率为5%（向鸽派65个基点转向），之后降息200个基点（与当前定价相差不远），摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数1-2月的飙升回撤，与政策预期的鹰派转向同时发生，标准普尔500指数的价值会为3875点。最后，正如我们上次指出，全球其他市场也位于关键技术位之上，如果随着标普500指数跌破3900点，这些市场也开始跌破各自关键技术位，就有可能触发投资者避险趋势。具体来说，许多与中国重新开放和市场活动反弹相关的市场正在接近1月的突破区间，某些情况下，移动平均线的震荡频率变小。我们最近重点关注期货铜，因为铜经常被视为全球制造业需求的风向标。工业金属期货市场正接近400点以下的关键支撑位，包括第四季度区间高点/1月突破点位、1月61.8%斐波那契回调、7月38.2%斐波那契回调和1-2月等波段目标位（见下图）。跌破这一明显的拐点不仅会促使平仓增加，而且无法维持22年第四季度的行情突破，可能使高风险市场情绪普遍恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315647,"gmtCreate":1678362686090,"gmtModify":1678362689373,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315647","repostId":"1119353536","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119353536","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678357871,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119353536?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 18:31","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A surge of 192% month-on-month! Global central banks continue to grab gold in January","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119353536","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"它才是真正的资产。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>After setting a record net purchase of gold last year, central banks around the world have not diminished their enthusiasm at all, and once again set off a crazy hoarding of gold.</p><p>The latest data compiled by the World Gold Council shows that in January this year, the net gold reserves of global central banks increased by 77 tons.<b>A sharp increase of 192% compared with December last year.</b>, exceeding the range of 20-60 tons of continuous net purchases in the past 10 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7637288dbe6d5d30b0bf80396b89ae45\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Among them, the largest gold buyer throughout 2022 and January this year, the Central Bank of Turkey, bought 23 tons of gold again. Turkey's central bank currently holds 565 tons of gold.</b></p><p>Turkey has been battling rampant inflation: In October last year, the inflation rate in Turkey accelerated to 85%. The Turkish lira lost nearly 30% of its value last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira terms rose by 40% year-on-year.</p><p>China's gold reserves increased by another 14.9 tonnes in January, after rising by 62 tonnes between November and December 2022. The increase in gold holdings during this period last year was the first increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China in more than three years.</p><p>The European Central Bank reported that gold holdings increased by nearly 2 tons in January. The World Gold Council said this was related to Croatia's entry into the euro zone. Kazakhstan's central bank slightly increased its holdings of gold by 3.9 tons in January after selling more than 30 tons of gold reserves in November and December last year.</p><p>Singapore's central bank announced that it purchased 45 tons of gold in January, an increase of 29% from the previous month. The World Gold Council then revised the initially reported 31 tons to the current 77 tons. Singapore's central bank's current gold holdings have increased from 153.8 tons to 198.4 tons.</p><p><b>The only country to reduce its gold holdings in January was Uzbekistan, whose gold reserves fell by 12 tons.</b></p><p>The World Gold Council expects central banks to continue buying gold this year, but the purchase rate may not reach the record levels seen in 2022:</p><p><b>Looking ahead, we see no reason to doubt that central banks will remain positive on gold and continue to be net buyers of gold in 2023.</b>However, as we said at the beginning of 2022, it's hard to predict how much purchases will be. But we also have reason to believe that central bank demand in 2023 may struggle to reach last year's levels. The total gold purchases by central banks in 2022 will be 1,136 tons, the highest net purchase since records began in 1950, and breaking the net purchase record of the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971. It is also the 13th consecutive year of net purchases by global central banks. buy gold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22b563b734c093204730cb31f24960e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The World Gold Council stated,<b>There are two main drivers for central banks to buy gold: one is gold's safe-haven role in times of crisis, and the other is gold's role as a long-term store of value (to fight inflation). So it's not surprising that central banks have chosen to accelerate their gold holdings in a year of high geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation.</b></p><p>Juan Carlos Artigas, director of global research at the World Gold Council, told the media that the large-scale purchase highlighted the fact that gold is still an important asset in the global monetary system: \"Although gold no longer endorses any currency, it is still being used. Why? Because it is the real asset.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A surge of 192% month-on-month! Global central banks continue to grab gold in January</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA surge of 192% month-on-month! Global central banks continue to grab gold in January\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 18:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>After setting a record net purchase of gold last year, central banks around the world have not diminished their enthusiasm at all, and once again set off a crazy hoarding of gold.</p><p>The latest data compiled by the World Gold Council shows that in January this year, the net gold reserves of global central banks increased by 77 tons.<b>A sharp increase of 192% compared with December last year.</b>, exceeding the range of 20-60 tons of continuous net purchases in the past 10 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7637288dbe6d5d30b0bf80396b89ae45\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Among them, the largest gold buyer throughout 2022 and January this year, the Central Bank of Turkey, bought 23 tons of gold again. Turkey's central bank currently holds 565 tons of gold.</b></p><p>Turkey has been battling rampant inflation: In October last year, the inflation rate in Turkey accelerated to 85%. The Turkish lira lost nearly 30% of its value last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira terms rose by 40% year-on-year.</p><p>China's gold reserves increased by another 14.9 tonnes in January, after rising by 62 tonnes between November and December 2022. The increase in gold holdings during this period last year was the first increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China in more than three years.</p><p>The European Central Bank reported that gold holdings increased by nearly 2 tons in January. The World Gold Council said this was related to Croatia's entry into the euro zone. Kazakhstan's central bank slightly increased its holdings of gold by 3.9 tons in January after selling more than 30 tons of gold reserves in November and December last year.</p><p>Singapore's central bank announced that it purchased 45 tons of gold in January, an increase of 29% from the previous month. The World Gold Council then revised the initially reported 31 tons to the current 77 tons. Singapore's central bank's current gold holdings have increased from 153.8 tons to 198.4 tons.</p><p><b>The only country to reduce its gold holdings in January was Uzbekistan, whose gold reserves fell by 12 tons.</b></p><p>The World Gold Council expects central banks to continue buying gold this year, but the purchase rate may not reach the record levels seen in 2022:</p><p><b>Looking ahead, we see no reason to doubt that central banks will remain positive on gold and continue to be net buyers of gold in 2023.</b>However, as we said at the beginning of 2022, it's hard to predict how much purchases will be. But we also have reason to believe that central bank demand in 2023 may struggle to reach last year's levels. The total gold purchases by central banks in 2022 will be 1,136 tons, the highest net purchase since records began in 1950, and breaking the net purchase record of the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971. It is also the 13th consecutive year of net purchases by global central banks. buy gold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22b563b734c093204730cb31f24960e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The World Gold Council stated,<b>There are two main drivers for central banks to buy gold: one is gold's safe-haven role in times of crisis, and the other is gold's role as a long-term store of value (to fight inflation). So it's not surprising that central banks have chosen to accelerate their gold holdings in a year of high geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation.</b></p><p>Juan Carlos Artigas, director of global research at the World Gold Council, told the media that the large-scale purchase highlighted the fact that gold is still an important asset in the global monetary system: \"Although gold no longer endorses any currency, it is still being used. Why? Because it is the real asset.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683669\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a0a20c59d08f59a8429d9a61eb959c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683669","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119353536","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳在去年创下黄金净购买量的纪录后，全球央行丝毫没有消减他们的热情，再度掀起了疯狂囤积黄金的热潮。世界黄金协会汇编的最新数据显示，今年1月，全球央行的黄金净储备增加了77吨，较去年12月环比暴增了192%，超过了过去10个月连续净买入的20-60吨范围内。其中，整个2022年和今年1月最大的黄金买家——土耳其央行，再次购买了23吨黄金。土耳其央行目前持有565吨黄金。土耳其一直在与猖獗的通胀作斗争：去年10月，土耳其的通胀率加速飙升至85%。土耳其里拉去年贬值了近30%。与此同时，以里拉计算的黄金价格同比上涨了40%。中国的黄金储备在2022年11月至12月期间增加62吨后，1月份再增加了14.9吨。去年这段时间的黄金增持是中国人民银行三年多来的首次增持。欧洲央行报告称，1月份黄金持有量增加了近2吨。世界黄金协会表示，这与克罗地亚加入欧元区有关。哈萨克斯坦央行在去年11月和12月卖出超过30吨黄金储备后，1月份小幅增持了3.9吨黄金。新加坡央行宣布1月购买了45吨黄金，环比增长了29%。随后世界黄金协会才将最初报告的31吨修正到目前的77吨。新加坡央行目前的黄金持有量从153.8吨增加到了198.4吨。1月份唯一减持黄金的国家是乌兹别克斯坦，其黄金储备减少了12吨。世界黄金协会预计，各国央行今年将继续购买黄金，但购买率可能不会达到2022年的创纪录水平：展望未来，我们认为没有理由怀疑各国央行将对黄金保持积极态度，并在2023年继续成为黄金的净买家。然而，正如我们在2022年初说的那样，很难预测购买量有多少。但我们也有理由相信，2023年的央行需求可能难以达到去年的水平。2022年央行黄金的总购买量为1136吨，这是自1950年有记录以来的最高净购买量，并打破了1971年美元跟黄金脱钩的净购买量记录，也是全球央行连续第13年净买入黄金。世界黄金协会表示，央行购买黄金的主要驱动因素有两个：一是黄金在危机时期的避险作用，二是黄金作为长期价值储存手段（对抗通胀）的作用。因此，在地缘政治高度不确定和通胀猖獗的一年里，各国央行选择加速增持黄金也就不足为奇了。世界黄金协会全球研究主管 Juan Carlos Artigas 向媒体表示，大规模购买突显了黄金仍然是全球货币体系中的重要资产这一事实：“尽管黄金不再为任何货币背书，但它仍在被使用。为什么？因为它才是真正的资产。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GC2304":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315853,"gmtCreate":1678362664873,"gmtModify":1678362667426,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315853","repostId":"1107257184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315193,"gmtCreate":1678362652712,"gmtModify":1678362655245,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315193","repostId":"2318230395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2318230395","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678342683,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2318230395?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell has no choice but to defeat inflation with \"recession\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2318230395","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>According to economist Steven Blitz, if the Fed wants to use a recession to defeat inflation, it must at least raise the unemployment rate to 4.5%, and may reach a maximum of 5.5%.</b>The Federal Reserve will not stop rate hike until the U.S. economy enters recession.</p><p>On Wednesday, Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, said in an interview with the media,<b>The Fed won't stop rate hike unless Powell creates a recession and unemployment starts to rise.</b></p><p>Blitz emphasized that the Fed cannot estimate its interest rate ceiling without a recession. Blitz notes:</p><p>They don't know where the top interest rate is because they don't know where inflation will stabilize in the absence of a recession.<b>In my opinion, if the Fed wants to beat inflation with a recession, it must at least raise the unemployment rate to 4.5%, and possibly as high as 5.5%.</b>During a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Powell pointed to recent stronger-than-expected economic data, suggesting that the final rate level may be higher than previously expected.</p><p><b>This hawkish argument has caused market rate hike expectations to heat up rapidly, jumping from the \"no landing\" argument of the economy to a \"hard landing\"</b>。 The bond market doubled down on a U.S. recession, with the inversion between 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields exceeding 100 basis points for the first time since 1981.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In the latest report, he raised his forecast for peak interest rates. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius pointed out:</p><p>Whether the Fed will choose rate hike 25 basis points or 50 basis points,<b>The median forecast for peak interest rates in the March summary of economic forecasts is expected to reach 5.5%-5.75%.</b>Goldman Sachs also predicts that the data before the March meeting will be mixed. Although the number of job vacancies in the United States declined in January, it is expected that the core CPI in February will increase by 0.45% month-on-month, a rebound from the previous value of 0.4%. Therefore, Goldman Sachs pointed out:</p><p>Our forecast for March rate hike of 25 basis points is very hanging, and there is a risk of 50 basis points for the Federal Reserve FOMC rate hike.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell has no choice but to defeat inflation with \"recession\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell has no choice but to defeat inflation with \"recession\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 14:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>According to economist Steven Blitz, if the Fed wants to use a recession to defeat inflation, it must at least raise the unemployment rate to 4.5%, and may reach a maximum of 5.5%.</b>The Federal Reserve will not stop rate hike until the U.S. economy enters recession.</p><p>On Wednesday, Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, said in an interview with the media,<b>The Fed won't stop rate hike unless Powell creates a recession and unemployment starts to rise.</b></p><p>Blitz emphasized that the Fed cannot estimate its interest rate ceiling without a recession. Blitz notes:</p><p>They don't know where the top interest rate is because they don't know where inflation will stabilize in the absence of a recession.<b>In my opinion, if the Fed wants to beat inflation with a recession, it must at least raise the unemployment rate to 4.5%, and possibly as high as 5.5%.</b>During a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Powell pointed to recent stronger-than-expected economic data, suggesting that the final rate level may be higher than previously expected.</p><p><b>This hawkish argument has caused market rate hike expectations to heat up rapidly, jumping from the \"no landing\" argument of the economy to a \"hard landing\"</b>。 The bond market doubled down on a U.S. recession, with the inversion between 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields exceeding 100 basis points for the first time since 1981.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In the latest report, he raised his forecast for peak interest rates. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius pointed out:</p><p>Whether the Fed will choose rate hike 25 basis points or 50 basis points,<b>The median forecast for peak interest rates in the March summary of economic forecasts is expected to reach 5.5%-5.75%.</b>Goldman Sachs also predicts that the data before the March meeting will be mixed. Although the number of job vacancies in the United States declined in January, it is expected that the core CPI in February will increase by 0.45% month-on-month, a rebound from the previous value of 0.4%. Therefore, Goldman Sachs pointed out:</p><p>Our forecast for March rate hike of 25 basis points is very hanging, and there is a risk of 50 basis points for the Federal Reserve FOMC rate hike.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ad6d149dc7d2caabace61c93649d4b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2318230395","content_text":"在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz在接受媒体采访时表示，除非鲍威尔制造一场衰退，失业率开始上升，美联储才会停止加息。Blitz强调，在经济没有衰退的情况下，美联储无法估计其利率上限。Blitz指出：他们不知道最高利率在哪里，因为他们不知道在没有衰退的情况下通胀会在哪里稳定下来。在我看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。鲍威尔在周二的国会听证会中指出，最近的经济数据强于预期，这表明最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。这一鹰派论调令市场加息预期快速升温，从经济“不着陆”的论调跳到“硬着陆”。债市加倍下注美国经济衰退，2年期和10年期美债收益率之间的倒挂幅度，自1981年以来首次超过了100基点。高盛则在最新报告中上调了利率峰值预期，高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius指出：无论美联储会是选择加息25个基点还是50个基点，预计3月份经济预测摘要中对利率峰值的预测中值将达到5.5%-5.75%。高盛还预计，3月会议前的数据喜忧参半，1月份美国职位空缺数虽有所下降，但预计2月核心CPI环比涨幅为0.45%，较前值0.4%有所反弹。因此高盛指出：我们对于3月加息25个基点的预测很悬，存在美联储FOMC加息50个基点的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315960,"gmtCreate":1678362632250,"gmtModify":1678362636020,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315960","repostId":"1146888656","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902177,"gmtCreate":1678280334399,"gmtModify":1678280336504,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902177","repostId":"1137703062","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137703062","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678275432,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137703062?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 19:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Why is the Federal Reserve the key to A-shares again? Can the Chinese market get out of its independent market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137703062","media":"陈果A股策略","summary":"国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: CITIC Construction Investment Chen Guo, Xia Fanjie</p><p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Core views:</b></li></ul><b>Starting from the increasingly strong linkage between A-shares and U.S. stocks, this article explores ways for the Federal Reserve to influence A-shares. From four reasons, it analyzes why the impact of overseas liquidity on A shares will exceed that of domestic liquidity at some stages. Finally, this article points out that the market environment in the next few months may be that the yield of U.S. Treasury Bond fluctuates upward, but there is little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. For A-shares, the maximum risk of rate hike has passed, and rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. In the future, Chinese economic recovery will be the key to starting an independent market.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks</b></li></ul>The analysis of the correlation between the weekly rise and fall of the Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that the linkage between China and the United States will be strengthened after 2019. Behind the enhanced linkage between A-shares and US stocks, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cannot be ignored. It mainly affects A-shares through two ways. One is to directly affect the valuation of A-shares through the rise and fall of US stocks, and the other is to trigger fluctuations in the A-share market through capital flows.</p><p><ul><li><b>Domestic or overseas liquidity, who is more affected by A shares?</b></li></ul>Logically, internal factors are more important than external factors. In fact, the impact of changes in U.S. interest rates on A shares is very obvious at some stages. For example, the impact of US Treasury yields's rise on Kweichow Moutai's stock price, and the trend linkage between the US Dollar Index and CSI 300.</p><p><ul><li><b>Why are A shares so affected by the Federal Reserve?</b></li></ul>The influence of external factors has been particularly obvious recently for four reasons: (since 2017) the internationalization of A-shares has increased significantly in recent years; (Since 2019) Domestic precise regulation, the United States has opened and closed; (In the past two months) the country is still in the observation period, and the United States is expected to change; (Transmission mechanism) Domestically it mainly affects fixed-income assets, and the United States affects global asset pricing.</p><p><ul><li><b>How will the Federal Reserve affect A shares this year?</b></li></ul>\"Dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\" is the most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to stretch the long term and look for elasticity. The source of elasticity can come from post-epidemic recovery. The more common situation is to seek elasticity from technology growth stocks. Under the \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\", the market valuation has fallen, and funds have poured into low-valuation and high-Dividend varieties to avoid risks, looking for cash flow. Cyclical and stable styles such as coal and public utilities have benefited the most.</p><p>The market environment in the coming months may be that U.S. Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upward, but there is little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. The rate hike of the European Central Bank may exceed expectations, but the impact of the European Central Bank on A shares is relatively limited. For A-shares, the maximum risk of rate hike has passed, and rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. In the future, Chinese economic recovery will be the key to starting an independent market.</p><p><ul><li><b>Risk warning</b></li></ul>The Fed's tightening exceeded expectations, inflation in Europe exceeded expectations, and China's economic recovery was lower than expected.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>In the past two months, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have been revised, and the trend of A-shares and U.S. stocks has become more and more similar. Starting from the linkage between China and the US stock markets, this paper explores the ways for the Federal Reserve to influence A shares. Logically speaking, China's economy determines the profit growth of A-share companies, and the People's Bank of China determines the flow of A-share market. But why does overseas liquidity have more impact on A-shares than domestic liquidity at some stages?</p><p>We interpreted it from four aspects and answered the question \"Why does the Fed become the key to A-shares again?\" Finally, we conduct a review on the performance of A-shares in two market environments: \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar\" and \"dovish expectations + weak dollar\". It is pointed out that A-shares will still face the pressure of high inflationary environment and the opportunity of independent market in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c340c4caebe5c020eacc03de97ef9\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1. Behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks</b></p><p><b>Are the trends of A-shares and US stocks becoming more and more similar?</b></p><p>In recent exchanges with institutional investors, a common feeling is that the trends of A-shares and U.S. stocks are becoming more and more similar. This feature has gradually become clear after the second half of 2019, especially in the past two months. Especially in the ChiNext Index and Nasdaq Index, the representative indexes of science and technology growth, the same is true for the classic indexes CSI 300 and S&P 500: market performance and ups and downs mostly have similar performances. In view of this, A-share investors are paying more and more attention to the Fed's monetary policy trends, the US Dollar Index fluctuations and U.S. stock trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe583ce2aeed214085e5c6e359fb407\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f0efe6229f3f8ab59e6ca602ec50e7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The analysis of the correlation between the weekly rise and fall of the Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that the linkage between China and the United States will be strengthened after 2019. Statistical results show that from the opening of the GEM in 2010 to the end of 2018, the correlation coefficients of the weekly rise and fall of the GEM Index-Nasdaq Index, CSI 300-S&P 500 Index, and SSE 50-Dow Jones Index are 0.172, 0.275 and 0.172 respectively, and neither of them is correlated within the three groups. Since 2019, the correlations between the weekly rise and fall of the three groups of indexes have been 0.543, 0.903 and 0.895 respectively, which are moderately correlated, highly correlated and highly correlated respectively. All of the above tests were significant at the 1% level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb64c1b68b3befa5158694492a26b8a\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73efc5d08f1a82fd37f957d76a59b2b3\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>How does the Federal Reserve's monetary policy affect A shares?</b></p><p>Behind the enhanced linkage between A-shares and U.S. stocks, a key factor is that U.S. Treasury Bond yields, as the anchor of global pricing, act on the Chinese and American stock markets at the same time, resulting in linkage between the two markets. With the improvement of the internationalization of A-shares, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment has an increasing impact on A-shares, and has gradually become a key policy that A-share investors cannot ignore.</p><p>There are two main ways for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to transmit A shares:</p><p>First, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks directly affects the valuation of A-shares. This is due to the developed capital market and high-tech industry of U.S. stocks, which has led many technology leaders in U.S. stocks to become the global valuation benchmark for growth stocks in this field. Nasdaq or related technology leading stock price fluctuations will have a direct impact on the valuation of GEM or related technology industries; In addition, the ups and downs of U.S. stocks will also be transmitted to A-shares through the influence of market sentiment. U.S. stocks-Chinese concept stocks-Hong Kong stocks-A-shares are a common transmission channel.</p><p>The second is to trigger fluctuations in the A-share market through capital flows. The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the difference in economic fundamentals between China and the United States will lead to no appreciation/depreciation of the US dollar, which will turn into the pressure of appreciation/depreciation of the RMB and the net inflow/net outflow of funds going north, and ultimately affect the A-share market through exchange rate fluctuations and foreign capital inflows and outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd97493d7ecdcff9ba19a18621b3b79e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2. Domestic and overseas liquidity, who is more affected by A shares?</b></p><p><b>Logically, internal influence is more important than external influence</b></p><p>The phenomenon of increasing influence of overseas factors has also aroused widespread concern among investors. A hot question is, who is more affected by domestic and overseas liquidity/fundamental changes?</p><p>Logically, the answer to this question is obvious: the influence of internal causes is more important than external causes. This is because the profitability of A-share companies depends on the Chinese economy itself, and the liquidity also depends on domestic liquidity. External factors can only be transmitted to A-shares from the two aforementioned channels of valuation changes (benchmarking valuation, emotion transmission) and capital flows (exchange rate fluctuations and northbound funds), which has an indirect impact.</p><p>As a big economic country, China's economic cycle changes and monetary policy adjustments are independent, so the influence direction of internal and external factors is not necessarily the same. Logically, A-shares should be more affected by internal factors.</p><p><b>In fact, the impact of interest rate changes in the United States on A shares is very obvious at some stages</b></p><p>However, in practice, investors find that the impact of US interest rate changes/the US Dollar Index fluctuations on A shares is very obvious at some stages. A typical example is liquor stocks represented by Kweichow Moutai, which are loved by long-term funds represented by foreign capital because of their stable profitability. This led to Kweichow Moutai's valuation soaring from 30 times to more than 70 times at the beginning of 2021 in 2020, when the Federal Reserve had zero interest rates and global liquidity was flooding.</p><p>With the introduction of the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus plan from January to February 2021, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's \"big water release\" in the early stage, the yield of U.S. Treasury Bond began to rise sharply. \"Long-term, high-valuation\" assets such as Kweichow Moutai bear the brunt of the blow, and the valuation center has moved down sharply. The valuation of Kweichow Moutai finally returned to a relatively reasonable level around 40 times. The stock price also fluctuated significantly without unusual changes in its corporate earnings. The impact of overseas factors on A shares can be seen.</p><p>The US Dollar Index is another overseas indicator that affects the trend of A-shares. Since 2020, the trend of the CSI 300 Index has shown a significant negative correlation with the fluctuation of the the US Dollar Index, that is, from March 2020 to January 2021, when the the US Dollar Index weakened, The CSI 300 performed strongly, and when the US dollar strengthened from February 2021 to October 2022, the CSI 300 performed weakly, and the two trends were obviously correlated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c7fa1f518fafa607c08684f38ea32\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6677ec31c4ae9d4b3b79eca3bcbab31\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3. Why are A-shares so affected by the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p><b>The internationalization of A-shares has increased significantly in recent years</b></p><p><b>A-share investment increasingly needs to pay attention to overseas factors, especially the actions of the Federal Reserve. This phenomenon is particularly obvious after 2017. One of the key reasons is that in recent years, with the obvious improvement of the internationalization of A-shares, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased, and due to the concentrated characteristics of foreign shareholding, some blue-chip white horse companies have higher pricing power.</b></p><p>First of all, with the improvement of the internationalization of A-shares in recent years, especially after international indexes such as MSCI have expanded A-shares many times, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased. According to our statistics, as of December last year, foreign-funded institutions and individuals held a total A-share market value of nearly 3.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 3.65% of the total A-share market value. Since 2019, the proportion of foreign shareholding has been at a relatively high level of more than 2.5%, and the linkage between the Chinese and American stock markets has become increasingly close.</p><p>Secondly, the proportion of foreign capital transactions has also increased significantly in recent years. Although the proportion of foreign capital holdings in the market value is only slightly over 4% at its highest, a large number of shares in A shares do not participate in circulation, so the influence of foreign capital is higher than that of market value. From the perspective of the proportion of transaction amount, only counting the proportion of monthly northbound capital transaction amount to all A, it can be found that the proportion has also increased significantly since 2019, and it has basically been between 5% and 6% in the past two years. In February 2021, it even reached a high of 7.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864609b7038781d4e1984cd1933c99f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d6d78ca622310c6a3fc47c4d7efbf6\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, foreign shareholding is limited by the land stock connect channel and its strategic requirements, and it is more concentrated than the blue-chip white horse target, which further enhances the voice of foreign capital in some industries and companies. According to our statistics, at present, there are 23 foreign shares accounting for more than 30% of the free circulating market value, and 21 shares accounting for more than 20% of the circulating market value. These stocks with greater foreign voice are mostly concentrated in the financial, manufacturing and consumption fields such as banks, home appliances, power equipment, medicine, food and beverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a350d0438f743d48ba8a1a630e2a5253\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Precise domestic regulation, the United States opens and closes widely</b></p><p><b>Another reason for the huge influence of the Federal Reserve is that the monetary policy styles of Chinese and American central banks are completely different. The People's Bank of China tends to regulate precisely, and changes in monetary policy are not drastic. Compared with the wide opening and closing of U.S. monetary policy, China pays more attention to precise guidance and direct access to entities.</b></p><p>The differences in the adjustment of policy interest rates by the central banks of China and the United States since the second half of 2019 can well illustrate the differences in monetary policy styles of the two countries. The frequency of policy interest rate adjustments of the People's Bank of China is low, and the single adjustment range is small, mostly 5 BP, 10 BP or 15 BP. The main tone of \"stability\" has not changed, and the specific expression is \"stable monetary policy is flexible, precise, reasonable and moderate\" and \"prudent monetary policy is more flexible and moderate\".</p><p>The Federal Reserve's federal funds target rate has been adjusted as many as 13 times. It experienced a slow interest rate cut in 2019. After the epidemic in 2020, it dropped sharply to zero interest rates. In 2022, it will begin three consecutive stages of sharp rate hike. The adjustment ranges are mostly 25BP, 50 BP or 75BP, and even 100BP was significantly reduced.</p><p>In terms of policy statements, from \"one interest rate cut is not enough to solve all problems\" after the epidemic to \"temporary inflation theory\" and \"slowing down the pace of net asset purchases\" in 2021 to \"firm commitment to the 2% inflation target in 2022, continue to be substantial\" rate hike \", the Fed's policy statement is very clear, and it keeps a close eye on key data indicators such as non-farm employment and inflation. Clear direction, greater intensity, and the huge influence of the U.S. economy make the Federal Reserve's decision-making affect the global financial market.</p><p><b>For the A-share market, the marginal impact of different policy styles is different. Although the policies of the People's Bank of China are more direct and important, they have less changes and less marginal impact, while the Fed's actions are frequent and have huge impact, so they attract more investors' attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8a2cfc0ac9faddbd5243027cdb7da3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>China is still in the observation period, and the United States is expected to change</b></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the trend of the A-share market has become closer and closer to that of the U.S. stock market. Perhaps the reason behind this is that the current domestic monetary policy is still in the observation period, while U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations have undergone major changes, resulting in a marginal increase in overseas influence.</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, the domestic epidemic quickly exceeded its peak, and the economy entered a state of \"return to normal\". However, due to the disturbance of the Spring Festival and the base of the epidemic, the market still has great differences on the current economic recovery situation, and monetary policy has entered an observation period. According to the \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2022\" released by the People's Bank of China on February 24, the previous statement of \"increasing the implementation of prudent monetary policy\" was revised to \"prudent monetary policy must be precise and powerful\", and it was re-mentioned in 2022 In the monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of the year, \"guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around policy interest rates.\"</p><p>This means that the central bank's judgment on the macro economy tends to be positive, and monetary policy has begun to normalize. In the future, it is difficult for the market to expect further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. However, at a time when the capital center has returned to the policy interest rate, the possibility of the central bank continuing to tighten the capital is low. It is expected that the central bank will take further action after an observation period.</p><p>However, U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations have shifted significantly since February. Previously, the market widely expected inflation to fall, and the Federal Reserve may conduct its last rate hike in March, and then halt its rate hike as recession expectations rise. However, this expectation is too optimistic about the decline of inflation. With the release of strong non-farm employment and inflation data in the United States, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will stop rate hike in the future has been reversed. The resulting impact includes that the yield of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen again, with 10-year and 30-year periods rising above 4.0% one after another, and the US Dollar Index has also stopped falling and rebounded since February, with a maximum increase of 4.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12a0fee59fa8da4debf77305ea5b8\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It can also be seen from the recent statements made by Fed officials that their attitude has obviously turned hawkish. Its main remarks revolved around excessive inflation levels, tight labor market supply, and hinted that a rate hike of 50BP may be possible in March. It is expected that the change may further affect the RMB exchange rate and the trend of A shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a864c8f7a610a412d8a99637364a772f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"1249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cfb2a7197a2e84d554ee6eacfdebc8\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"1337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On Tuesday, March 7, Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified at a hearing of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, warning that the strong data at the beginning of this year may prompt the Fed not to continue to slow down, but to accelerate the pace of rate hike, and the final interest rate may exceed the Fed's previous expected level.</b>The market responded quickly, with U.S. Treasury Bond yields soaring across the board and the US Dollar Index surging. How do we interpret it?</p><p><b>1) We are currently in a period of expected transition, and the Fed's policy adjustment pays great attention to data changes.</b>After Powell's speech, the probability of the Fed's rate hike of 50BP and the expectation of the final interest rate high in March were significantly raised. We believe that the peak of policy interest rates in the future cannot be judged. This is because the Fed's policy adjustment pays great attention to data changes. In the future, it is necessary to look for inflation easing and labor supply and demand matching from the directions of CPI, PCE, core services after excluding housing, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rate. evidence. By then, the pace of Fed policy rate hike is expected to slow down. In the short term, whether rate hike is 50BP in March is still observed by February CPI and non-agricultural data.</p><p><b>2) Stick to the 2% inflation target, and the high interest rate environment lasts for a long time.</b>Powell particularly emphasized that \"maintaining the credibility of the Fed's inflation rate target of 2% will directly stabilize the market's expectations for the economic outlook. Therefore, it is indeed very important to stick to the 2% target. I will not consider changing the Fed's 2% inflation rate control target.\" Previously, the market tended to ignore the 2% inflation target and overestimated the \"dovish\" turn brought about by the expectation of a US economic recession. The special emphasis on sticking to the 2% inflation target this time indicates that the high interest rate environment will last for a long time.</p><p><b>3) The current domestic monetary policy is still in the observation period, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments on A-shares has intensified.</b>As the current post-epidemic recovery situation of the domestic economy remains to be seen, it is expected that RRR cuts, interest rate cuts or policy tightenings are unlikely in the near future. In this context, the Fed's policy adjustment has a greater impact on A-shares, and varieties with long duration, high valuation and poor performance should be avoided in the short term. This impact is expected to be eliminated in the event of an easing U.S. inflation-recession or a strong recovery in China, when the market is expected to build a new thread around a U.S. recession trade or a China recovery trade.</p><p><b>Domestic mainly affects fixed-income assets, and the United States affects global asset pricing</b></p><p><b>One of the core reasons for the greater influence of the Federal Reserve is that China and the United States have different transmission mechanisms of liquidity to the equity market. In essence, the transmission channel of China's macro liquidity to the A-share market is not smooth, and the central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets. The U.S. financial market is developed and capital flows freely and smoothly. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct and profound impact on all financial markets around the world.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the transmission channel of China's macro-liquidity to the A-share market is not smooth, and the micro-liquidity and macro-liquidity of the A-share market are often separated. The central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets, and the impact on A-share pricing is indirect and limited.</p><p>According to the statistical results of the People's Bank of China's \"2019 Survey on Assets and Liabilities of Urban Households in China\", among residents' financial assets, bank savings and fixed-income products such as wealth management, time deposits, and cash account for the vast majority of assets, while equity assets such as stocks and funds account for less than 10% (among which funds are mainly fixed-income). It can be seen that the proportion of equity in Chinese residents' financial assets is extremely low. The impact of monetary policy on macro liquidity mainly affects the bond market, but has limited impact on A shares.</p><p>A typical example is that after April last year, the remaining liquidity represented by M2-social financing has risen sharply to a historically high level, but it has not brought about a significant improvement in the micro-liquidity of A shares. In the second half of last year, new funds were issued for a long time. In a deserted state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00410d4f25f426eee028e3d1d8af8c4a\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9e69343d69e7a7ad6b24dcaee94d18\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the other hand, the U.S. financial market is developed and capital flows freely and smoothly. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct and profound impact on all financial markets around the world. Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing's monetary policy for a long time. Zero-cost or even negative-cost funds poured into the stock market in large quantities, and technology stocks were popular. At the same time, a large amount of funds also flowed into emerging market stock markets for diversified allocation. As a result, global stock markets, especially U.S. technology stocks and emerging market stock markets, are particularly sensitive to changes in the Fed's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b970bd8672657354dcfab9f6312b094\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>4. How will the Federal Reserve affect A shares this year?</b></p><p><b>Hawkish expectations + A-share performance in a strong dollar environment</b></p><p>Since 2021, changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have had the most obvious impact on the market, which can form two opposite market environments: \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\" and \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\". We use the ten-year U.S. Taking rising bond yields and strengthening the US Dollar Index as standards, three typical \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment periods\" can be obtained, namely, January 6-March 31, 2021, August 4, 2021-October 11, 2022, and February 3-March 3, 2023. Statistics on the main indexes, styles and industry performance of A-shares in these three periods show that the performance characteristics of A-shares in this kind of environment can be obtained:</p><p>1) The dividend index stands out among the major indexes and can maintain positive returns in all three periods. Large-cap value (Shanghai Composite Index) and small-cap growth (National Securities 2000), which are not too highly valued, have fallen slightly in the latest period, while large-cap growth stocks such as GEM Index and Kechuang 50 have experienced a huge decline in hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment due to their overvaluations.</p><p>2) In terms of style, the stable style has the strongest performance, and it can also maintain positive returns in three periods. Cycle performance is also relatively good. Growth and consumption performed the worst. It can be seen that under hawkish expectations, long-term assets are very unfavorable, while short-term assets benefit relatively.</p><p>3) In terms of industries, low-valuation, high-Dividend, and short-duration sectors such as coal, public utilities, building decoration, and transportation performed best, while high-valuation, high-growth, and long-duration sectors such as electronics, medicine, biology, and computers performed the best. worst.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b013b9bc97831286c2696aeafb844360\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d436b7f079e8bb01ee8c7325c279636c\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Dovish expectations + A-share performance in a weak dollar environment</b></p><p>Similarly, based on the rise in ten-year U.S. bond yields and the strengthening of the US Dollar Index, two typical \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment periods\" can be obtained, namely April 1, 2021-June 1, 2021, 2022 November 4, 2023-February 2, 2023. Statistics on the main indexes, styles and industry performance of A-shares in these two periods show that the performance characteristics of A-shares in this kind of environment can be obtained:</p><p>1) All indexes on the major indexes have achieved positive returns. Among them, the ChiNext Index performed best. Large-cap blue-chip indexes such as the Shanghai Composite 50 and the CSI 300 also rose significantly. The performance of small-cap stocks was relatively weak. The government dividend index was the smallest, but there were also cumulative 13.9% increase.</p><p>2) In terms of style, consumption style performs best, which is mainly due to the recovery expectation brought about by the relaxation of domestic epidemic policies after November last year. Financial, cyclical, and growth styles also performed well, and the stable style performed the worst, which is exactly the opposite of hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment performance.</p><p>3) In terms of industries, food and beverage, beauty care, non-ferrous metals, media and other industries performed the strongest, while public utilities, environmental protection, national defense and military industries performed poorly. It can be seen that under the \"dovish expectation + weak dollar environment\", the stable style has been abandoned by funds due to lack of elasticity, and investors have turned to embrace the most flexible direction. For November last year, the recovery expectation brought about by policy liberalization is The most flexible direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e846c6c8cf2716716bc71f047bfd3bd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68609a05e24994ac269b9c80747fead7\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"921\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>High inflationary pressure is still there, upward pressure on the US dollar is limited, and the European Central Bank may become a new variable</b></p><p>Through the above A-share review, we can draw the following conclusions:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve's policies have had a huge impact on A-shares since 2021, and the performance of the A-share market in two different market environments is completely opposite.</p><p>2) \"Dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\" is the most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to stretch the long term and look for elasticity. The source of elasticity can come from post-epidemic recovery. The more common situation is to seek elasticity from technology growth stocks.</p><p>3) Under the \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\", the market valuation has fallen, and funds have poured into low-valuation and high-Dividend varieties to avoid risks, looking for cash flow. Cyclical and stable styles such as coal and public utilities have benefited the most.</p><p>So, what kind of market environment will we face in the future? We believe that,<b>At present, the global high inflationary pressure is still there, and the US Treasury Bond yield may rise further under the expectation of the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike. However, compared with the United States, the inflation and rate hike situation in the euro zone are more severe, and the European Central Bank's stronger rate hike will boost the euro exchange rate and reduce the upward pressure on the US dollar. Finally, the recovery of the Chinese economy is also expected to offset part of the pressure of RMB depreciation. Therefore, the market environment in the coming months may be that U.S. Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upward, but there is little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index.</b></p><p>At present, inflationary pressure in the United States is still relatively high. In January, the core PCE grew by 4.71% year-on-year, which failed to continue the previous downward trend, but rebounded, exceeding market expectations. This round of inflation in the United States belongs to \"compound inflation\" in terms of causes. It includes not only the unlimited QE of the Federal Reserve and the radical fiscal stimulus factors of the U.S. government after the epidemic, but also the problems of energy investment, supply chain and labor force. At the same time, the Trump administration in 2018 The wave of anti-globalization that started also destroyed the global supply chain system.</p><p>Judging from the current situation, although energy and supply chain issues have improved significantly in recent months, food and wage inflation remain high. We expect that the upward pressure on the housing rent sub-item with the largest weight in inflation may continue until September this year. This may cause the US PCE to remain at a high level in the coming months and it is difficult to fall back significantly.</p><p>It is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely return to the rate hike of 50BP in March, and the Federal Funds rate range may rise to 5.5% to 5.75% by July. At the same time, it is also likely to rise to 5.75% to 6.0%, compared with the current total rate hike of 125BP. The trend of the benchmark interest rate will eventually be reflected in the US Treasury yields, and historically, the two will eventually reach the same height.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc4ac523dcf11044150e1755199783a\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50f787c1d5645abba12d7799b972381\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the euro zone is currently facing a more severe inflation adjustment, which means \"higher and longer\" rate hike from the European Central Bank. In February, the core reconciled CPI rebounded more than expected, with an initial value of 5.6% year-on-year and an expected 5.3%. The market generally expects that the European Central Bank will accumulate 100 basis points of rate hike in March and May, and the peak interest rate will reach around 4.1%.</p><p>Recently, Robert Holzmann, Governing Council of the European Central Bank and President of the Austrian Central Bank, made a hawkish statement in an interview with Bloomberg: \"<b>I don't think core inflation will weaken significantly in the first half of this year and will remain near current levels. In this case, I expect we will have 4 more rate hike this year and 0.5 percentage points in rate hike. Even then, our deposit interest rate is only 4%. Only there will we roughly enter the restricted area</b>。”</p><p>According to the rate hike path proposed by robert holzmann, the interest rate of the ECB's deposit facility will rise from the current 2.5% to 4.5%, which is much higher than the current peak of 4% expected by the market. This is also the interest rate level that no other ECB official has publicly proposed so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed02969720a2c06b52572e75fb354b0\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bf286d5a9a6324659f1d0ad9f9b328\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Judging from the history after the birth of the euro, the inflation in the euro zone has never surpassed that in the United States before. Therefore, it is difficult for us to get the historical experience of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank simultaneously rate hike, more European rate hike, and flattening the US Dollar Index. Therefore, we only analyze logically: the previous article has proved that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has greater influence on A-shares at certain stages. From the analysis of transmission channels, the influence of the European Central Bank can be regarded as a weakened version of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On the one hand, the sharp rate hike of the European Central Bank and the potential monetary policy adjustment of the Bank of Japan will raise the global currency cost, which will lead to the continued outflow of funds from emerging markets (or at least difficult to flow in), while the technological growth style is under pressure and the stable cycle style is strong. On the other hand, the technological growth style of European stock markets is more value-oriented than that of U.S. stocks, and there is no benchmarking significance for valuation. The ability to drive A-shares down through risk appetite and emotional channels is limited.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c54a00e7982414a9de69622e4fe3ee\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f33fa50ade7bdce2f52b18976fdca7\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The key to A-shares getting out of the independent market lies in whether their own fundamentals can strengthen</b></p><p><b>Strengthening rate hike is not a bad thing, the maximum risk point has passed</b></p><p>For the market, it is not a bad thing for the central bank to firm rate hike against the background of high inflation. rate hike's hesitation leads to out-of-control inflation, which has a greater negative impact on the market. Judging from the market in the past two years, when inflation was high but the Fed's rate hike was not firm (November 2021-June 2022), U.S. stocks fell the most, while when the Fed was firm and sharp in rate hike (since June 2022), U.S. stocks stopped the downward trend, and market volatility decreased. Up to now, the risk of killing valuations brought by rate hike has been fully reflected. If the United States enters a recession in the future, it may cause the \"killing performance\" of US stocks to enter the final decline. But for A-shares, the biggest impact has passed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5b1ddee48677914bc382d74f3b31d2\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Under the pressure of high global inflation in the short term, U.S. bond yields are still rising, which will suppress the stock price performance of products with long duration, high valuation, and poor performance. However,<b>This does not mean that the A-share market cannot open an independent market, nor does it mean that the growth style of A-shares has weakened across the board. Historically, A-shares have repeatedly gone out of the independent market against the background of rising U.S. bond yields, and even the growth style has performed better during this period. The key is that China's economic fundamentals are significantly better than those of the United States, which helps to break the Sino-US linkage and eliminate the interest rate pressure from the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Several periods when U.S. bond yields rose but A-shares went out of their independent market or their growth styles relatively outperformed include:</p><p>1) From December 2008 to June 2009, after 4 trillion yuan, China's economy led the world in rapid recovery.</p><p>2) From May 2013 to December 2013, when the Federal Reserve created the Taper panic, China also experienced a \"money shortage\", which did not hinder the surge of small and medium-sized enterprises.</p><p>3) From February 2015 to June 2015, the Chinese economy stabilized, and the U.S. economy fell sharply in the first quarter, causing market rate hike expectations to fail.</p><p>4) From September 2020 to January 2021, China's economy took the lead in recovering after the epidemic, and the U.S. economy also picked up significantly behind.</p><p>5) From May 2022 to June 2022, the Chinese economy ushered in recovery after the impact of the epidemic, and the United States made a rate hike in response to sharp inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d721fb20166b17f234f3fc2b9b19a3cc\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>We expect China's economy to bottom out in the first half of the year.</b>Judging from our tracking of the economic inventory cycle, China entered the active destocking stage in April last year. According to the active destocking cycle of 11 months on average in history and the PPI that is expected to bottom out in April this year, we expect the active destocking stage to end in March-May this year and enter the passive destocking stage. At the same time, household consumption is also expected to further recover after the epidemic policy is relaxed and income expectations stabilize.</p><p><b>China's economy is expected to shift from the previous \"return to normal\" to a real \"recovery\".</b>If the macro fundamental combination of \"strong China economy + weak US economy\" can be formed in the second half of this year, A-shares are expected to break the constraints of the Federal Reserve and get out of a period of independent market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d71d77910905faf15f45306426adf2cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>(1) The tightening degree of overseas Federal Reserve exceeded expectations. If the U.S. economy continues to remain resilient and economic data such as the labor market and retail sales perform well, then the risk of U.S. recession may face a revaluation, and inflation risks will also face a rebound. The Federal Reserve's tightening road to fight inflation will continue, and global liquidity will be less loose than expected., the denominator of the domestic equity market will inevitably be under pressure.</p><p>(2) The severity of inflation in Europe exceeded expectations. If European inflation continues to be higher than expected, the European Central Bank will be forced to make multiple substantial rate hike, which will lead to further rises in global interest rates and even push the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy. The global market may bid farewell to the low interest rate investment environment, and long-term assets face greater risks.</p><p>(3) The implementation effect of domestic economic recovery or steady growth policies is not as effective as expected. If the follow-up domestic real estate sales, investment and other data are difficult to recover, the long-term accumulated urban investment debt repayment risks are facing fermentation, and the post-epidemic economic recovery is finally falsified, then the overall market trend will be under pressure, and overly optimistic pricing expectations will face revision..</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"chagcl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is the Federal Reserve the key to A-shares again? Can the Chinese market get out of its independent market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is the Federal Reserve the key to A-shares again? Can the Chinese market get out of its independent market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">陈果A股策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-08 19:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: CITIC Construction Investment Chen Guo, Xia Fanjie</p><p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Core views:</b></li></ul><b>Starting from the increasingly strong linkage between A-shares and U.S. stocks, this article explores ways for the Federal Reserve to influence A-shares. From four reasons, it analyzes why the impact of overseas liquidity on A shares will exceed that of domestic liquidity at some stages. Finally, this article points out that the market environment in the next few months may be that the yield of U.S. Treasury Bond fluctuates upward, but there is little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. For A-shares, the maximum risk of rate hike has passed, and rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. In the future, Chinese economic recovery will be the key to starting an independent market.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks</b></li></ul>The analysis of the correlation between the weekly rise and fall of the Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that the linkage between China and the United States will be strengthened after 2019. Behind the enhanced linkage between A-shares and US stocks, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cannot be ignored. It mainly affects A-shares through two ways. One is to directly affect the valuation of A-shares through the rise and fall of US stocks, and the other is to trigger fluctuations in the A-share market through capital flows.</p><p><ul><li><b>Domestic or overseas liquidity, who is more affected by A shares?</b></li></ul>Logically, internal factors are more important than external factors. In fact, the impact of changes in U.S. interest rates on A shares is very obvious at some stages. For example, the impact of US Treasury yields's rise on Kweichow Moutai's stock price, and the trend linkage between the US Dollar Index and CSI 300.</p><p><ul><li><b>Why are A shares so affected by the Federal Reserve?</b></li></ul>The influence of external factors has been particularly obvious recently for four reasons: (since 2017) the internationalization of A-shares has increased significantly in recent years; (Since 2019) Domestic precise regulation, the United States has opened and closed; (In the past two months) the country is still in the observation period, and the United States is expected to change; (Transmission mechanism) Domestically it mainly affects fixed-income assets, and the United States affects global asset pricing.</p><p><ul><li><b>How will the Federal Reserve affect A shares this year?</b></li></ul>\"Dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\" is the most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to stretch the long term and look for elasticity. The source of elasticity can come from post-epidemic recovery. The more common situation is to seek elasticity from technology growth stocks. Under the \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\", the market valuation has fallen, and funds have poured into low-valuation and high-Dividend varieties to avoid risks, looking for cash flow. Cyclical and stable styles such as coal and public utilities have benefited the most.</p><p>The market environment in the coming months may be that U.S. Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upward, but there is little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. The rate hike of the European Central Bank may exceed expectations, but the impact of the European Central Bank on A shares is relatively limited. For A-shares, the maximum risk of rate hike has passed, and rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. In the future, Chinese economic recovery will be the key to starting an independent market.</p><p><ul><li><b>Risk warning</b></li></ul>The Fed's tightening exceeded expectations, inflation in Europe exceeded expectations, and China's economic recovery was lower than expected.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>In the past two months, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have been revised, and the trend of A-shares and U.S. stocks has become more and more similar. Starting from the linkage between China and the US stock markets, this paper explores the ways for the Federal Reserve to influence A shares. Logically speaking, China's economy determines the profit growth of A-share companies, and the People's Bank of China determines the flow of A-share market. But why does overseas liquidity have more impact on A-shares than domestic liquidity at some stages?</p><p>We interpreted it from four aspects and answered the question \"Why does the Fed become the key to A-shares again?\" Finally, we conduct a review on the performance of A-shares in two market environments: \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar\" and \"dovish expectations + weak dollar\". It is pointed out that A-shares will still face the pressure of high inflationary environment and the opportunity of independent market in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c340c4caebe5c020eacc03de97ef9\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1. Behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks</b></p><p><b>Are the trends of A-shares and US stocks becoming more and more similar?</b></p><p>In recent exchanges with institutional investors, a common feeling is that the trends of A-shares and U.S. stocks are becoming more and more similar. This feature has gradually become clear after the second half of 2019, especially in the past two months. Especially in the ChiNext Index and Nasdaq Index, the representative indexes of science and technology growth, the same is true for the classic indexes CSI 300 and S&P 500: market performance and ups and downs mostly have similar performances. In view of this, A-share investors are paying more and more attention to the Fed's monetary policy trends, the US Dollar Index fluctuations and U.S. stock trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe583ce2aeed214085e5c6e359fb407\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f0efe6229f3f8ab59e6ca602ec50e7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The analysis of the correlation between the weekly rise and fall of the Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that the linkage between China and the United States will be strengthened after 2019. Statistical results show that from the opening of the GEM in 2010 to the end of 2018, the correlation coefficients of the weekly rise and fall of the GEM Index-Nasdaq Index, CSI 300-S&P 500 Index, and SSE 50-Dow Jones Index are 0.172, 0.275 and 0.172 respectively, and neither of them is correlated within the three groups. Since 2019, the correlations between the weekly rise and fall of the three groups of indexes have been 0.543, 0.903 and 0.895 respectively, which are moderately correlated, highly correlated and highly correlated respectively. All of the above tests were significant at the 1% level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb64c1b68b3befa5158694492a26b8a\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73efc5d08f1a82fd37f957d76a59b2b3\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>How does the Federal Reserve's monetary policy affect A shares?</b></p><p>Behind the enhanced linkage between A-shares and U.S. stocks, a key factor is that U.S. Treasury Bond yields, as the anchor of global pricing, act on the Chinese and American stock markets at the same time, resulting in linkage between the two markets. With the improvement of the internationalization of A-shares, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment has an increasing impact on A-shares, and has gradually become a key policy that A-share investors cannot ignore.</p><p>There are two main ways for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to transmit A shares:</p><p>First, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks directly affects the valuation of A-shares. This is due to the developed capital market and high-tech industry of U.S. stocks, which has led many technology leaders in U.S. stocks to become the global valuation benchmark for growth stocks in this field. Nasdaq or related technology leading stock price fluctuations will have a direct impact on the valuation of GEM or related technology industries; In addition, the ups and downs of U.S. stocks will also be transmitted to A-shares through the influence of market sentiment. U.S. stocks-Chinese concept stocks-Hong Kong stocks-A-shares are a common transmission channel.</p><p>The second is to trigger fluctuations in the A-share market through capital flows. The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the difference in economic fundamentals between China and the United States will lead to no appreciation/depreciation of the US dollar, which will turn into the pressure of appreciation/depreciation of the RMB and the net inflow/net outflow of funds going north, and ultimately affect the A-share market through exchange rate fluctuations and foreign capital inflows and outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd97493d7ecdcff9ba19a18621b3b79e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2. Domestic and overseas liquidity, who is more affected by A shares?</b></p><p><b>Logically, internal influence is more important than external influence</b></p><p>The phenomenon of increasing influence of overseas factors has also aroused widespread concern among investors. A hot question is, who is more affected by domestic and overseas liquidity/fundamental changes?</p><p>Logically, the answer to this question is obvious: the influence of internal causes is more important than external causes. This is because the profitability of A-share companies depends on the Chinese economy itself, and the liquidity also depends on domestic liquidity. External factors can only be transmitted to A-shares from the two aforementioned channels of valuation changes (benchmarking valuation, emotion transmission) and capital flows (exchange rate fluctuations and northbound funds), which has an indirect impact.</p><p>As a big economic country, China's economic cycle changes and monetary policy adjustments are independent, so the influence direction of internal and external factors is not necessarily the same. Logically, A-shares should be more affected by internal factors.</p><p><b>In fact, the impact of interest rate changes in the United States on A shares is very obvious at some stages</b></p><p>However, in practice, investors find that the impact of US interest rate changes/the US Dollar Index fluctuations on A shares is very obvious at some stages. A typical example is liquor stocks represented by Kweichow Moutai, which are loved by long-term funds represented by foreign capital because of their stable profitability. This led to Kweichow Moutai's valuation soaring from 30 times to more than 70 times at the beginning of 2021 in 2020, when the Federal Reserve had zero interest rates and global liquidity was flooding.</p><p>With the introduction of the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus plan from January to February 2021, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's \"big water release\" in the early stage, the yield of U.S. Treasury Bond began to rise sharply. \"Long-term, high-valuation\" assets such as Kweichow Moutai bear the brunt of the blow, and the valuation center has moved down sharply. The valuation of Kweichow Moutai finally returned to a relatively reasonable level around 40 times. The stock price also fluctuated significantly without unusual changes in its corporate earnings. The impact of overseas factors on A shares can be seen.</p><p>The US Dollar Index is another overseas indicator that affects the trend of A-shares. Since 2020, the trend of the CSI 300 Index has shown a significant negative correlation with the fluctuation of the the US Dollar Index, that is, from March 2020 to January 2021, when the the US Dollar Index weakened, The CSI 300 performed strongly, and when the US dollar strengthened from February 2021 to October 2022, the CSI 300 performed weakly, and the two trends were obviously correlated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c7fa1f518fafa607c08684f38ea32\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6677ec31c4ae9d4b3b79eca3bcbab31\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>3. Why are A-shares so affected by the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p><b>The internationalization of A-shares has increased significantly in recent years</b></p><p><b>A-share investment increasingly needs to pay attention to overseas factors, especially the actions of the Federal Reserve. This phenomenon is particularly obvious after 2017. One of the key reasons is that in recent years, with the obvious improvement of the internationalization of A-shares, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased, and due to the concentrated characteristics of foreign shareholding, some blue-chip white horse companies have higher pricing power.</b></p><p>First of all, with the improvement of the internationalization of A-shares in recent years, especially after international indexes such as MSCI have expanded A-shares many times, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased. According to our statistics, as of December last year, foreign-funded institutions and individuals held a total A-share market value of nearly 3.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 3.65% of the total A-share market value. Since 2019, the proportion of foreign shareholding has been at a relatively high level of more than 2.5%, and the linkage between the Chinese and American stock markets has become increasingly close.</p><p>Secondly, the proportion of foreign capital transactions has also increased significantly in recent years. Although the proportion of foreign capital holdings in the market value is only slightly over 4% at its highest, a large number of shares in A shares do not participate in circulation, so the influence of foreign capital is higher than that of market value. From the perspective of the proportion of transaction amount, only counting the proportion of monthly northbound capital transaction amount to all A, it can be found that the proportion has also increased significantly since 2019, and it has basically been between 5% and 6% in the past two years. In February 2021, it even reached a high of 7.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864609b7038781d4e1984cd1933c99f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d6d78ca622310c6a3fc47c4d7efbf6\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, foreign shareholding is limited by the land stock connect channel and its strategic requirements, and it is more concentrated than the blue-chip white horse target, which further enhances the voice of foreign capital in some industries and companies. According to our statistics, at present, there are 23 foreign shares accounting for more than 30% of the free circulating market value, and 21 shares accounting for more than 20% of the circulating market value. These stocks with greater foreign voice are mostly concentrated in the financial, manufacturing and consumption fields such as banks, home appliances, power equipment, medicine, food and beverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a350d0438f743d48ba8a1a630e2a5253\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Precise domestic regulation, the United States opens and closes widely</b></p><p><b>Another reason for the huge influence of the Federal Reserve is that the monetary policy styles of Chinese and American central banks are completely different. The People's Bank of China tends to regulate precisely, and changes in monetary policy are not drastic. Compared with the wide opening and closing of U.S. monetary policy, China pays more attention to precise guidance and direct access to entities.</b></p><p>The differences in the adjustment of policy interest rates by the central banks of China and the United States since the second half of 2019 can well illustrate the differences in monetary policy styles of the two countries. The frequency of policy interest rate adjustments of the People's Bank of China is low, and the single adjustment range is small, mostly 5 BP, 10 BP or 15 BP. The main tone of \"stability\" has not changed, and the specific expression is \"stable monetary policy is flexible, precise, reasonable and moderate\" and \"prudent monetary policy is more flexible and moderate\".</p><p>The Federal Reserve's federal funds target rate has been adjusted as many as 13 times. It experienced a slow interest rate cut in 2019. After the epidemic in 2020, it dropped sharply to zero interest rates. In 2022, it will begin three consecutive stages of sharp rate hike. The adjustment ranges are mostly 25BP, 50 BP or 75BP, and even 100BP was significantly reduced.</p><p>In terms of policy statements, from \"one interest rate cut is not enough to solve all problems\" after the epidemic to \"temporary inflation theory\" and \"slowing down the pace of net asset purchases\" in 2021 to \"firm commitment to the 2% inflation target in 2022, continue to be substantial\" rate hike \", the Fed's policy statement is very clear, and it keeps a close eye on key data indicators such as non-farm employment and inflation. Clear direction, greater intensity, and the huge influence of the U.S. economy make the Federal Reserve's decision-making affect the global financial market.</p><p><b>For the A-share market, the marginal impact of different policy styles is different. Although the policies of the People's Bank of China are more direct and important, they have less changes and less marginal impact, while the Fed's actions are frequent and have huge impact, so they attract more investors' attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8a2cfc0ac9faddbd5243027cdb7da3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>China is still in the observation period, and the United States is expected to change</b></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the trend of the A-share market has become closer and closer to that of the U.S. stock market. Perhaps the reason behind this is that the current domestic monetary policy is still in the observation period, while U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations have undergone major changes, resulting in a marginal increase in overseas influence.</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, the domestic epidemic quickly exceeded its peak, and the economy entered a state of \"return to normal\". However, due to the disturbance of the Spring Festival and the base of the epidemic, the market still has great differences on the current economic recovery situation, and monetary policy has entered an observation period. According to the \"Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2022\" released by the People's Bank of China on February 24, the previous statement of \"increasing the implementation of prudent monetary policy\" was revised to \"prudent monetary policy must be precise and powerful\", and it was re-mentioned in 2022 In the monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of the year, \"guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around policy interest rates.\"</p><p>This means that the central bank's judgment on the macro economy tends to be positive, and monetary policy has begun to normalize. In the future, it is difficult for the market to expect further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. However, at a time when the capital center has returned to the policy interest rate, the possibility of the central bank continuing to tighten the capital is low. It is expected that the central bank will take further action after an observation period.</p><p>However, U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations have shifted significantly since February. Previously, the market widely expected inflation to fall, and the Federal Reserve may conduct its last rate hike in March, and then halt its rate hike as recession expectations rise. However, this expectation is too optimistic about the decline of inflation. With the release of strong non-farm employment and inflation data in the United States, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will stop rate hike in the future has been reversed. The resulting impact includes that the yield of U.S. Treasury Bond has risen again, with 10-year and 30-year periods rising above 4.0% one after another, and the US Dollar Index has also stopped falling and rebounded since February, with a maximum increase of 4.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12a0fee59fa8da4debf77305ea5b8\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It can also be seen from the recent statements made by Fed officials that their attitude has obviously turned hawkish. Its main remarks revolved around excessive inflation levels, tight labor market supply, and hinted that a rate hike of 50BP may be possible in March. It is expected that the change may further affect the RMB exchange rate and the trend of A shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a864c8f7a610a412d8a99637364a772f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"1249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cfb2a7197a2e84d554ee6eacfdebc8\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"1337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On Tuesday, March 7, Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified at a hearing of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, warning that the strong data at the beginning of this year may prompt the Fed not to continue to slow down, but to accelerate the pace of rate hike, and the final interest rate may exceed the Fed's previous expected level.</b>The market responded quickly, with U.S. Treasury Bond yields soaring across the board and the US Dollar Index surging. How do we interpret it?</p><p><b>1) We are currently in a period of expected transition, and the Fed's policy adjustment pays great attention to data changes.</b>After Powell's speech, the probability of the Fed's rate hike of 50BP and the expectation of the final interest rate high in March were significantly raised. We believe that the peak of policy interest rates in the future cannot be judged. This is because the Fed's policy adjustment pays great attention to data changes. In the future, it is necessary to look for inflation easing and labor supply and demand matching from the directions of CPI, PCE, core services after excluding housing, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rate. evidence. By then, the pace of Fed policy rate hike is expected to slow down. In the short term, whether rate hike is 50BP in March is still observed by February CPI and non-agricultural data.</p><p><b>2) Stick to the 2% inflation target, and the high interest rate environment lasts for a long time.</b>Powell particularly emphasized that \"maintaining the credibility of the Fed's inflation rate target of 2% will directly stabilize the market's expectations for the economic outlook. Therefore, it is indeed very important to stick to the 2% target. I will not consider changing the Fed's 2% inflation rate control target.\" Previously, the market tended to ignore the 2% inflation target and overestimated the \"dovish\" turn brought about by the expectation of a US economic recession. The special emphasis on sticking to the 2% inflation target this time indicates that the high interest rate environment will last for a long time.</p><p><b>3) The current domestic monetary policy is still in the observation period, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments on A-shares has intensified.</b>As the current post-epidemic recovery situation of the domestic economy remains to be seen, it is expected that RRR cuts, interest rate cuts or policy tightenings are unlikely in the near future. In this context, the Fed's policy adjustment has a greater impact on A-shares, and varieties with long duration, high valuation and poor performance should be avoided in the short term. This impact is expected to be eliminated in the event of an easing U.S. inflation-recession or a strong recovery in China, when the market is expected to build a new thread around a U.S. recession trade or a China recovery trade.</p><p><b>Domestic mainly affects fixed-income assets, and the United States affects global asset pricing</b></p><p><b>One of the core reasons for the greater influence of the Federal Reserve is that China and the United States have different transmission mechanisms of liquidity to the equity market. In essence, the transmission channel of China's macro liquidity to the A-share market is not smooth, and the central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets. The U.S. financial market is developed and capital flows freely and smoothly. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct and profound impact on all financial markets around the world.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the transmission channel of China's macro-liquidity to the A-share market is not smooth, and the micro-liquidity and macro-liquidity of the A-share market are often separated. The central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets, and the impact on A-share pricing is indirect and limited.</p><p>According to the statistical results of the People's Bank of China's \"2019 Survey on Assets and Liabilities of Urban Households in China\", among residents' financial assets, bank savings and fixed-income products such as wealth management, time deposits, and cash account for the vast majority of assets, while equity assets such as stocks and funds account for less than 10% (among which funds are mainly fixed-income). It can be seen that the proportion of equity in Chinese residents' financial assets is extremely low. The impact of monetary policy on macro liquidity mainly affects the bond market, but has limited impact on A shares.</p><p>A typical example is that after April last year, the remaining liquidity represented by M2-social financing has risen sharply to a historically high level, but it has not brought about a significant improvement in the micro-liquidity of A shares. In the second half of last year, new funds were issued for a long time. In a deserted state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00410d4f25f426eee028e3d1d8af8c4a\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9e69343d69e7a7ad6b24dcaee94d18\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the other hand, the U.S. financial market is developed and capital flows freely and smoothly. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct and profound impact on all financial markets around the world. Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing's monetary policy for a long time. Zero-cost or even negative-cost funds poured into the stock market in large quantities, and technology stocks were popular. At the same time, a large amount of funds also flowed into emerging market stock markets for diversified allocation. As a result, global stock markets, especially U.S. technology stocks and emerging market stock markets, are particularly sensitive to changes in the Fed's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b970bd8672657354dcfab9f6312b094\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>4. How will the Federal Reserve affect A shares this year?</b></p><p><b>Hawkish expectations + A-share performance in a strong dollar environment</b></p><p>Since 2021, changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have had the most obvious impact on the market, which can form two opposite market environments: \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\" and \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\". We use the ten-year U.S. Taking rising bond yields and strengthening the US Dollar Index as standards, three typical \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment periods\" can be obtained, namely, January 6-March 31, 2021, August 4, 2021-October 11, 2022, and February 3-March 3, 2023. Statistics on the main indexes, styles and industry performance of A-shares in these three periods show that the performance characteristics of A-shares in this kind of environment can be obtained:</p><p>1) The dividend index stands out among the major indexes and can maintain positive returns in all three periods. Large-cap value (Shanghai Composite Index) and small-cap growth (National Securities 2000), which are not too highly valued, have fallen slightly in the latest period, while large-cap growth stocks such as GEM Index and Kechuang 50 have experienced a huge decline in hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment due to their overvaluations.</p><p>2) In terms of style, the stable style has the strongest performance, and it can also maintain positive returns in three periods. Cycle performance is also relatively good. Growth and consumption performed the worst. It can be seen that under hawkish expectations, long-term assets are very unfavorable, while short-term assets benefit relatively.</p><p>3) In terms of industries, low-valuation, high-Dividend, and short-duration sectors such as coal, public utilities, building decoration, and transportation performed best, while high-valuation, high-growth, and long-duration sectors such as electronics, medicine, biology, and computers performed the best. worst.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b013b9bc97831286c2696aeafb844360\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d436b7f079e8bb01ee8c7325c279636c\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Dovish expectations + A-share performance in a weak dollar environment</b></p><p>Similarly, based on the rise in ten-year U.S. bond yields and the strengthening of the US Dollar Index, two typical \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment periods\" can be obtained, namely April 1, 2021-June 1, 2021, 2022 November 4, 2023-February 2, 2023. Statistics on the main indexes, styles and industry performance of A-shares in these two periods show that the performance characteristics of A-shares in this kind of environment can be obtained:</p><p>1) All indexes on the major indexes have achieved positive returns. Among them, the ChiNext Index performed best. Large-cap blue-chip indexes such as the Shanghai Composite 50 and the CSI 300 also rose significantly. The performance of small-cap stocks was relatively weak. The government dividend index was the smallest, but there were also cumulative 13.9% increase.</p><p>2) In terms of style, consumption style performs best, which is mainly due to the recovery expectation brought about by the relaxation of domestic epidemic policies after November last year. Financial, cyclical, and growth styles also performed well, and the stable style performed the worst, which is exactly the opposite of hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment performance.</p><p>3) In terms of industries, food and beverage, beauty care, non-ferrous metals, media and other industries performed the strongest, while public utilities, environmental protection, national defense and military industries performed poorly. It can be seen that under the \"dovish expectation + weak dollar environment\", the stable style has been abandoned by funds due to lack of elasticity, and investors have turned to embrace the most flexible direction. For November last year, the recovery expectation brought about by policy liberalization is The most flexible direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e846c6c8cf2716716bc71f047bfd3bd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68609a05e24994ac269b9c80747fead7\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"921\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>High inflationary pressure is still there, upward pressure on the US dollar is limited, and the European Central Bank may become a new variable</b></p><p>Through the above A-share review, we can draw the following conclusions:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve's policies have had a huge impact on A-shares since 2021, and the performance of the A-share market in two different market environments is completely opposite.</p><p>2) \"Dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\" is the most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to stretch the long term and look for elasticity. The source of elasticity can come from post-epidemic recovery. The more common situation is to seek elasticity from technology growth stocks.</p><p>3) Under the \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\", the market valuation has fallen, and funds have poured into low-valuation and high-Dividend varieties to avoid risks, looking for cash flow. Cyclical and stable styles such as coal and public utilities have benefited the most.</p><p>So, what kind of market environment will we face in the future? We believe that,<b>At present, the global high inflationary pressure is still there, and the US Treasury Bond yield may rise further under the expectation of the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike. However, compared with the United States, the inflation and rate hike situation in the euro zone are more severe, and the European Central Bank's stronger rate hike will boost the euro exchange rate and reduce the upward pressure on the US dollar. Finally, the recovery of the Chinese economy is also expected to offset part of the pressure of RMB depreciation. Therefore, the market environment in the coming months may be that U.S. Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upward, but there is little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index.</b></p><p>At present, inflationary pressure in the United States is still relatively high. In January, the core PCE grew by 4.71% year-on-year, which failed to continue the previous downward trend, but rebounded, exceeding market expectations. This round of inflation in the United States belongs to \"compound inflation\" in terms of causes. It includes not only the unlimited QE of the Federal Reserve and the radical fiscal stimulus factors of the U.S. government after the epidemic, but also the problems of energy investment, supply chain and labor force. At the same time, the Trump administration in 2018 The wave of anti-globalization that started also destroyed the global supply chain system.</p><p>Judging from the current situation, although energy and supply chain issues have improved significantly in recent months, food and wage inflation remain high. We expect that the upward pressure on the housing rent sub-item with the largest weight in inflation may continue until September this year. This may cause the US PCE to remain at a high level in the coming months and it is difficult to fall back significantly.</p><p>It is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely return to the rate hike of 50BP in March, and the Federal Funds rate range may rise to 5.5% to 5.75% by July. At the same time, it is also likely to rise to 5.75% to 6.0%, compared with the current total rate hike of 125BP. The trend of the benchmark interest rate will eventually be reflected in the US Treasury yields, and historically, the two will eventually reach the same height.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc4ac523dcf11044150e1755199783a\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50f787c1d5645abba12d7799b972381\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the euro zone is currently facing a more severe inflation adjustment, which means \"higher and longer\" rate hike from the European Central Bank. In February, the core reconciled CPI rebounded more than expected, with an initial value of 5.6% year-on-year and an expected 5.3%. The market generally expects that the European Central Bank will accumulate 100 basis points of rate hike in March and May, and the peak interest rate will reach around 4.1%.</p><p>Recently, Robert Holzmann, Governing Council of the European Central Bank and President of the Austrian Central Bank, made a hawkish statement in an interview with Bloomberg: \"<b>I don't think core inflation will weaken significantly in the first half of this year and will remain near current levels. In this case, I expect we will have 4 more rate hike this year and 0.5 percentage points in rate hike. Even then, our deposit interest rate is only 4%. Only there will we roughly enter the restricted area</b>。”</p><p>According to the rate hike path proposed by robert holzmann, the interest rate of the ECB's deposit facility will rise from the current 2.5% to 4.5%, which is much higher than the current peak of 4% expected by the market. This is also the interest rate level that no other ECB official has publicly proposed so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed02969720a2c06b52572e75fb354b0\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bf286d5a9a6324659f1d0ad9f9b328\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Judging from the history after the birth of the euro, the inflation in the euro zone has never surpassed that in the United States before. Therefore, it is difficult for us to get the historical experience of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank simultaneously rate hike, more European rate hike, and flattening the US Dollar Index. Therefore, we only analyze logically: the previous article has proved that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has greater influence on A-shares at certain stages. From the analysis of transmission channels, the influence of the European Central Bank can be regarded as a weakened version of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On the one hand, the sharp rate hike of the European Central Bank and the potential monetary policy adjustment of the Bank of Japan will raise the global currency cost, which will lead to the continued outflow of funds from emerging markets (or at least difficult to flow in), while the technological growth style is under pressure and the stable cycle style is strong. On the other hand, the technological growth style of European stock markets is more value-oriented than that of U.S. stocks, and there is no benchmarking significance for valuation. The ability to drive A-shares down through risk appetite and emotional channels is limited.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c54a00e7982414a9de69622e4fe3ee\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f33fa50ade7bdce2f52b18976fdca7\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The key to A-shares getting out of the independent market lies in whether their own fundamentals can strengthen</b></p><p><b>Strengthening rate hike is not a bad thing, the maximum risk point has passed</b></p><p>For the market, it is not a bad thing for the central bank to firm rate hike against the background of high inflation. rate hike's hesitation leads to out-of-control inflation, which has a greater negative impact on the market. Judging from the market in the past two years, when inflation was high but the Fed's rate hike was not firm (November 2021-June 2022), U.S. stocks fell the most, while when the Fed was firm and sharp in rate hike (since June 2022), U.S. stocks stopped the downward trend, and market volatility decreased. Up to now, the risk of killing valuations brought by rate hike has been fully reflected. If the United States enters a recession in the future, it may cause the \"killing performance\" of US stocks to enter the final decline. But for A-shares, the biggest impact has passed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5b1ddee48677914bc382d74f3b31d2\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Under the pressure of high global inflation in the short term, U.S. bond yields are still rising, which will suppress the stock price performance of products with long duration, high valuation, and poor performance. However,<b>This does not mean that the A-share market cannot open an independent market, nor does it mean that the growth style of A-shares has weakened across the board. Historically, A-shares have repeatedly gone out of the independent market against the background of rising U.S. bond yields, and even the growth style has performed better during this period. The key is that China's economic fundamentals are significantly better than those of the United States, which helps to break the Sino-US linkage and eliminate the interest rate pressure from the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Several periods when U.S. bond yields rose but A-shares went out of their independent market or their growth styles relatively outperformed include:</p><p>1) From December 2008 to June 2009, after 4 trillion yuan, China's economy led the world in rapid recovery.</p><p>2) From May 2013 to December 2013, when the Federal Reserve created the Taper panic, China also experienced a \"money shortage\", which did not hinder the surge of small and medium-sized enterprises.</p><p>3) From February 2015 to June 2015, the Chinese economy stabilized, and the U.S. economy fell sharply in the first quarter, causing market rate hike expectations to fail.</p><p>4) From September 2020 to January 2021, China's economy took the lead in recovering after the epidemic, and the U.S. economy also picked up significantly behind.</p><p>5) From May 2022 to June 2022, the Chinese economy ushered in recovery after the impact of the epidemic, and the United States made a rate hike in response to sharp inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d721fb20166b17f234f3fc2b9b19a3cc\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>We expect China's economy to bottom out in the first half of the year.</b>Judging from our tracking of the economic inventory cycle, China entered the active destocking stage in April last year. According to the active destocking cycle of 11 months on average in history and the PPI that is expected to bottom out in April this year, we expect the active destocking stage to end in March-May this year and enter the passive destocking stage. At the same time, household consumption is also expected to further recover after the epidemic policy is relaxed and income expectations stabilize.</p><p><b>China's economy is expected to shift from the previous \"return to normal\" to a real \"recovery\".</b>If the macro fundamental combination of \"strong China economy + weak US economy\" can be formed in the second half of this year, A-shares are expected to break the constraints of the Federal Reserve and get out of a period of independent market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d71d77910905faf15f45306426adf2cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>(1) The tightening degree of overseas Federal Reserve exceeded expectations. If the U.S. economy continues to remain resilient and economic data such as the labor market and retail sales perform well, then the risk of U.S. recession may face a revaluation, and inflation risks will also face a rebound. The Federal Reserve's tightening road to fight inflation will continue, and global liquidity will be less loose than expected., the denominator of the domestic equity market will inevitably be under pressure.</p><p>(2) The severity of inflation in Europe exceeded expectations. If European inflation continues to be higher than expected, the European Central Bank will be forced to make multiple substantial rate hike, which will lead to further rises in global interest rates and even push the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy. The global market may bid farewell to the low interest rate investment environment, and long-term assets face greater risks.</p><p>(3) The implementation effect of domestic economic recovery or steady growth policies is not as effective as expected. If the follow-up domestic real estate sales, investment and other data are difficult to recover, the long-term accumulated urban investment debt repayment risks are facing fermentation, and the post-epidemic economic recovery is finally falsified, then the overall market trend will be under pressure, and overly optimistic pricing expectations will face revision..</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NjczMzI0MA==&mid=2247539438&idx=1&sn=5764f6881d6208b1e06b06f114b1187d&chksm=e9b8da39decf532f16c1fb6989baa09aa78de83c51d3b23c2edbe3438587a8d37f08c4a142b2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0308Boj9dGL8rY8GFcOVadVb&sharer_sharetime=1678267375940&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">陈果A股策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NjczMzI0MA==&mid=2247539438&idx=1&sn=5764f6881d6208b1e06b06f114b1187d&chksm=e9b8da39decf532f16c1fb6989baa09aa78de83c51d3b23c2edbe3438587a8d37f08c4a142b2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0308Boj9dGL8rY8GFcOVadVb&sharer_sharetime=1678267375940&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137703062","content_text":"作者：中信建投陈果、夏凡捷核心摘要核心观点：本文从A股与美股越来越强的联动性出发，探寻美联储影响A股的途径。并从四个原因进行分析，为什么在某些阶段海外流动性对A股的影响会超过国内流动性。本文最后指出，未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。对于A股来说，加息风险最大时点已过，短期利率攀升可能压制长久期资产，未来中国经济复苏将是独立行情启动关键。A股与美股联动性增强的背后对中美股市周涨跌幅相关性的分析印证了2019年之后中美联动加强的判断。A股与美股联动性增强的背后，美联储货币政策的影响不容忽视。其主要通过两条途径影响A股，一是通过美股涨跌直接影响A股估值，二是通过资金流动引发A股市场波动。国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？逻辑上，内因影响重于外因。实际上，美国利率变化对A股影响在某些阶段非常明显。例如美债利率上升前后对贵州茅台股价的影响，以及美元指数与沪深300的走势联动。为何A股受美联储影响这么大？外因影响近期尤为明显，原因有四：（2017年以来）A股国际化程度近年来明显提升；（2019年以来）国内精准调控，美国大开大合；（近两个月）国内尚处于观察期，美国预期转变；（传导机制）国内主要影响固收资产，美国影响全球资产定价。今年的美联储将如何影响A股？“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”对市场最为有利，此时投资者倾向于拉长久期，寻找弹性，弹性的来源可以来自疫后修复，更常见的情形是从科技成长股中寻求弹性。“鹰派预期+强美元环境”下市场估值下杀，资金涌入低估值、高股息品种避险，寻找现金流，煤炭、公用事业等周期、稳定类风格最为受益。未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。欧洲央行的加息可能超预期，但欧央行对A股的影响相对有限。对于A股来说，加息风险最大时点已过，短期利率攀升可能压制长久期资产，未来中国经济复苏将是独立行情启动关键。风险提示美联储紧缩程度超预期、欧洲通胀情况超预期、中国经济复苏低于预期。引言近两月美联储加息预期修正，A股与美股走势也越来越像。本文从中美股市联动性出发，探寻美联储影响A股的途径。从逻辑上看，中国经济决定了A股企业盈利增长，中国央行决定了A股市场流动，但为什么在某些阶段海外流动性对A股的影响会超过国内流动性？我们从四个方面进行解读，回答了“美联储为何再成A股关键”这一问题。文章最后，我们对“鹰派预期+强美元”和“鸽派预期+弱美元”两种市场环境下的A股表现进行复盘。指出未来一个阶段A股仍面临高通胀环境压力，和独立行情出现的机会。一、A股与美股联动性增强的背后A股与美股走势越来越像？近期与机构投资者交流，一个普遍的感受是A股与美股的走势越来越相像，这一特点在2019年下半年之后逐步明晰，近两个月尤为明显。特别是体现在科技成长代表性指数创业板指和纳斯达克指数上，经典指数沪深300和标普500也是如此：市场表现、涨跌方向多有相似表现。有鉴于此，A股投资者对于美联储货币政策动向、美元指数波动和美股走势的关注度也越来越高。对中美股市周涨跌幅相关性的分析印证了2019年之后中美联动加强的判断。统计结果表明，2010年创业板开板后到2018年年底，创业板指-纳斯达克指数、沪深300-标普500指数、上证50-道琼斯指数周涨跌幅的相关性系数分别为0.172、0.275和0.172，三组内部两者均不相关。而2019年以来，三组指数周涨跌幅的相关性分别为0.543、0.903和0.895，分别为中度相关、高度相关和高度相关。以上检验均在1%水平上显著。美联储货币政策如何影响A股？A股与美股联动性增强的背后，一个关键因素在于美国国债收益率作为全球定价之锚，同时作用于中美两国股市，导致两个市场产生联动。随着A股国际化程度的提高，美联储的货币政策调整对于A股的影响也越来越大，并逐步成为A股投资者不可忽视的关键政策。美联储货币政策对A股的传导途径主要有两条：其一是通过美股涨跌直接影响A股估值，这是由于美股发达的资本市场和高科技产业，导致美股众多科技龙头纷纷成为全球该领域成长股估值标杆，纳斯达克或相关科技龙头的股价波动会对创业板或相关科技行业估值产生直接影响；另外，美股的涨跌波动也会通过市场情绪的影响传导到A股，美股-中概股-港股-A股是一个常见的传导渠道。其二是通过资金流动引发A股市场波动，美联储货币政策调整、中美经济基本面差异等会引发没有美元的升值/贬值，这又会转变为人民币的升值/贬值压力和北上资金的净流入/净流出，最终通过汇率波动和外资出入影响A股市场。二、国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？逻辑上，内因影响重于外因海外因素影响增大的现象也引发了投资者的广泛关注，一个热点问题是，国内与海外的流动性/基本面变化，A股受谁影响更大？从逻辑上看，这一问题的答案是显而易见的：内因的影响重于外因。这是由于A股公司的盈利状况取决于中国经济自身，而流动性情况也取决于国内的流动性，外部因素只能从估值变化（对标估值、情绪传导）和资金流动（汇率波动和北上资金）这两个前述渠道传导到A股，产生间接的影响。中国作为经济大国，经济周期变化和货币政策调整均具有独立性，因此内外因素的影响方向不一定一致，从逻辑上看，A股应该受内因影响更大。实际上，美国利率变化对A股影响在某些阶段非常明显然而，在实践中投资者发现美国利率变化/美元指数波动对A股的影响在某些阶段非常明显。一个典型的例子是贵州茅台为代表的白酒股，由于其稳健的盈利能力受到了外资为代表的长线资金的喜爱。这导致贵州茅台在美联储零利率、全球流动性泛滥的2020年，估值从30倍飙升到了2021年初的70倍以上。而随着2021年1-2月拜登政府过度的财政刺激计划出台，叠加前期美联储“大放水”影响，美国国债收益率开始大幅上行。贵州茅台等“长久期、高估值”的资产首当其冲遭受打击，估值中枢大幅下移。贵州茅台估值最终回归到40倍附近的相对合理水平。股价也在其企业盈利并未出现异常变化的情况下大幅波动。海外因素对A股的影响可见一斑。美元指数是另一个影响A股走势的海外指标，2020年以来，沪深300指数的走势与美元指数的波动呈现显著的负相关关系，即从2020年3月-2021年1月美元指数走弱时，沪深300表现强势，2021年2月-2022年10月美元走强时，沪深300表现弱势，两者走势关联明显。三、为何A股受美联储影响这么大？A股国际化程度近年来明显提升A股投资越来越多的需要关注海外因素特别是美联储动作，这一现象在2017年之后尤为明显，一个关键原因在于，近年来随着A股国际化程度明显提升，外资持股规模逐步增加，且由于外资持股集中的特点，对部分蓝筹白马公司拥有较高定价权。首先，随着近年来A股国际化程度的提升，特别是MSCI等国际指数对A股多次扩容之后，外资持股规模逐步增加。我们统计截至去年12月，外资机构和个人共持有A股市值近3.2万亿，占全A总市值比例达到3.65%。2019年以来外资持股比例处于超过2.5%的较高水平，中美股市联动日益密切。其次，外资交易额占比近年来也有明显提升。虽然外资持股市值比例最高时也仅略超4%，但A股中有大量股本不参与流通，因此外资影响力相比起市值占比更高。从成交金额占比来看，仅统计每月北向资金成交金额占全A的比例，可以发现2019年以来占比也有明显攀升，近两年基本处于5%-6%之间的水平，2021年2月甚至达到了7.2%的高点。最后，外资持股受限于陆股通渠道和其策略要求，多于蓝筹白马标的中集中持股，这进一步增强了外资在部分行业和公司的话语权。我们统计发现当前外资持股占自由流通市值比例超过30%的有23只，占流通市值比例超过20%的有21只，这些外资话语权较大的股票多集中于银行、家电、电力设备、医药、食品饮料等金融、制造、消费领域。国内精准调控，美国大开大合美联储影响力巨大的另一个原因在于中美两国央行货币政策的风格截然不同。中国央行倾向于精准调控，货币政策变化并不剧烈，相比于美国货币政策的大开大合，国内更注重精准导向、直达实体。2019年下半年以来中美两国央行对政策利率的调整差异就能够很好的说明两国货币政策风格的不同。中国央行政策利率调整的频率较低，单次调整幅度较小，多为5 BP、10 BP或15BP，主基调“稳健”一直没有变化，具体表述上则有“稳健的货币政策灵活精准、合理适度”和“稳健的货币政策更加灵活适度”这样的区别。而美联储的联邦基金目标利率的调整多达13次，经历了2019年缓慢降息，2020年疫情后大幅降到零利率，2022年开始连续大幅加息三个阶段，调整幅度多为25BP、50 BP或75BP，甚至还有100BP大幅调降。在政策表述上，从疫情后“一次降息不足以解决所有问题”到2021年“通胀暂时论”和“放缓净资产购买的步伐”再到2022年“坚定承诺2%的通胀目标，继续大幅加息”，美联储的政策表态非常明确，且紧盯非农就业、通货膨胀等关键数据指标。明确的方向、较大的力度，叠加美国经济巨大的影响力，使得美联储的决策影响着全球金融市场。对于A股市场来说，不同的政策风格带来的边际影响是不同的。中国央行的政策虽然更加直接和重要，但变化较小，边际影响也较小，而美联储的动作频繁且影响巨大，因此更吸引投资者关注。国内尚处于观察期，美国预期转变今年以来，A股市场走势与美股愈发接近，或许其背后的原因在于当前国内货币政策尚处于观察期，而美国通胀和加息预期发生了重大转变，导致海外影响边际上升。年初国内疫情快速过峰，经济进入“复常”状态，但由于春节和疫情的基数扰动，市场对于当前经济修复状况仍有较大分歧，货币政策进入观察期。根据中国央行在2月24日发布的《2022年四季度货币政策执行报告》，此前“加大稳健货币政策实施力度”的表述修改为“稳健的货币政策要精准有力”，并重新提及2022年一季度货币政策执行报告中的“引导市场利率围绕政策利率波动”。这意味着央行对宏观经济的判断趋于积极，货币政策开始正常化，在未来一段时间，市场很难期待会有进一步的降准、降息举措。不过，在资金面中枢已经回归政策利率的当下，央行继续收紧资金面的可能性较低。预计央行将在一段观察期后再采取进一步的动作。然而，2月以来美国通胀和加息预期发生了重大转变。此前市场普遍预期通胀回落，美联储可能在3月进行最后一次加息，然后伴随着衰退预期的上升而停止加息。不过，这种预期对于通胀的回落过于乐观，随着美国强劲的非农就业和通胀数据出炉，市场对于美联储未来停止加息的预期遭到逆转，随之造成的影响包括美国国债收益率再度上行，10年期、30年期陆续升破4.0%，美元指数也从2月开始止跌回升，最大涨幅4.5%。从近期美联储官员表态当中也可以看出其态度已经明显转鹰。其主要言论围绕过高的通胀水平、劳动力市场供应紧张，并暗示3月可能加息50BP。预期改变或将进一步影响人民币汇率和A股走势。美东时间3月7日周二，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院银行委员会的听证会上作证，警告今年初的强劲数据可能促使联储不再继续放缓、而是加快加息的脚步，最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。市场随之迅速反应，美国国债收益率全线飙升，美元指数大涨。我们如何解读？1）当前处于预期转变期，美联储政策调整非常注重数据变化。鲍威尔讲话后，3月美联储加息50BP概率和最终利率高点预期明显上调。我们认为未来政策利率峰值尚无法判断，这是因为美联储政策调整非常注重数据变化，未来需要从CPI、PCE、剔除住房后核心服务、非农、失业率等方向寻找通胀缓和、劳动力供给与需求匹配的证据。届时美联储政策加息节奏料将有所放缓。从短期看，3月是否加息50BP还有2月CPI和非农数据作为观察。2）坚守2%通胀目标，高利率环境持续时间较长。鲍威尔特别强调了“维持2%这一美联储通胀率目标的可信度，将能直接稳定住市场对经济前景的预期。所以，坚守2%的目标的确是非常重要的。不会考虑去变更美联储的2%通胀率控制目标。”此前市场往往倾向于忽略2%的通胀目标，过高估计了美国经济衰退预期带来的“鸽派”转向。此次特别强调坚守2%通胀目标，预示着高利率环境持续时间较长。3）当前国内货币政策尚处于观察期，美联储政策调整对A股影响加剧。由于当前国内经济疫后修复情况尚待观察，预计近期降准降息或政策收紧都不太可能。在此背景下美联储政策调整对A股的影响较大，应短期规避久期长、估值高、业绩差的品种。这一影响有望在美国通胀缓和-经济衰退或中国经济强劲复苏的情况下消除，届时市场有望围绕美国衰退交易或中国复苏交易构建新主线。国内主要影响固收资产，美国影响全球资产定价美联储影响力更大的一个核心原因在于中美两国流动性对权益市场的传导机制不同。本质上说，中国宏观流动性向A股市场的传导渠道并不畅通，央行货币政策主要影响固定收益资产定价。而美国金融市场发达、资金流动自由畅通，美联储货币政策对全球各个金融市场都有直接且深刻的影响。一方面，中国宏观流动性向A股市场的传导渠道并不畅通，A股市场微观流动性情况与宏观流动性经常存在割裂的情况，央行货币政策主要影响固定收益资产定价，对A股定价的影响间接且有限。根据中国人民银行《2019年中国城镇居民家庭资产负债情况调查》的统计结果，居民金融资产中理财、定期存款、现金等银行储蓄和固定收益型产品占据绝大部分的资产比例，而股票、基金等权益类资产占比不到10%（其中基金也以固收类为主）。可见中国居民金融资产中权益类占比极低，货币政策对宏观流动性的冲击主要对债市产生影响，而对A股的影响有限。一个典型的例子是，去年4月以后，M2-社融为代表的剩余流动性大幅攀升到历史极高水平，但并未带来A股微观流动性的明显改善，去年下半年新基金发行长期处于冷清状态。另一方面，美国金融市场发达、资金流动自由畅通，美联储货币政策对全球各个金融市场都有直接且深刻的影响。尤其是2008年金融危机之后，美联储长期实施量化宽松的货币政策，零成本甚至负成本的资金大量涌入股市，科技股受到热捧，同时大量资金还流入新兴市场股市进行多元化配置。其结果是全球股市，特别是美股科技股、新兴市场股市对美联储货币政策变化尤为敏感。四、今年的美联储将如何影响A股？鹰派预期+强美元环境下的A股表现2021年以来，美联储货币政策的变化对市场的影响最为明显，能够形成“鹰派预期+强美元环境”和“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”两类相反的市场环境，我们以十年期美债收益率上行和美元指数走强为标准，可以得到三段典型的“鹰派预期+强美元环境期”，分别为2021年1月6日-3月31日，2021年8月4日-2022年10月11日，2023年2月3日-3月3日。统计这三段时期A股主要指数、风格和行业表现，可以得到这类环境下A股表现特征：1）主要指数上红利指数一枝独秀，三段时期均能保持正收益。估值不算太高的大盘价值（上证指数）和小盘成长（国证2000）在最近一期跌幅较小，而创业板指、科创50等大盘成长股由于估值过高，在鹰派预期+强美元环境下跌幅巨大。2）风格上稳定风格表现最强，同样在三段时期均能保持正收益。周期表现也相对较好。成长和消费表现最差。可见鹰派预期下，长久期资产非常不利，而短久期资产相对受益。3）行业上，煤炭、公用事业、建筑装饰、交通运输等低估值、高股息、短久期板块表现最好，电子、医药生物、计算机等高估值、高成长、长久期板块表现最差。鸽派预期+弱美元环境下的A股表现同样的，以十年期美债收益率上行和美元指数走强为标准，可以得到两段典型的“鸽派预期+弱美元环境期”，分别为2021年4月1日-6月1日，2022年11月4日-2023年2月2日。统计这两段时期A股主要指数、风格和行业表现，可以得到这类环境下A股表现特征：1）主要指数上所有指数均获得正收益，其中创业板指表现最好，上证50、沪深300等大盘蓝筹指数也有明显上涨，小盘股表现相对偏弱，红利指数政府最小，但也有累计13.9%的涨幅。2）风格上消费风格表现最好，这主要受益于去年11月之后国内疫情政策放开带来的复苏预期。金融、周期、成长风格也同样有较好表现，稳定风格表现最差，这正好与鹰派预期+强美元环境表现相反。3）行业上，食品饮料、美容护理、有色金属、传媒等行业表现最为强劲，而公用事业、环保、国防军工等表现较差。可见在“鸽派预期+弱美元环境” 下稳定类风格由于缺乏弹性遭到资金抛弃，投资者转而拥抱最具有弹性的方向，对于去年11月来说，政策放开带来的复苏预期是最具弹性的方向。高通胀压力仍在，美元上涨压力有限，欧央行或成新变数通过上述A股复盘，我们可以得到以下结论：1）美联储政策2021年以来对A股影响巨大，两种不同市场环境下A股市场表现截然相反。2）“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”对市场最为有利，此时投资者倾向于拉长久期，寻找弹性，弹性的来源可以来自疫后修复，更常见的情形是从科技成长股中寻求弹性。3）“鹰派预期+强美元环境”下市场估值下杀，资金涌入低估值、高股息品种避险，寻找现金流，煤炭、公用事业等周期、稳定类风格最为受益。那么，未来我们即将面临什么样的市场环境呢？我们认为，目前全球高通胀压力仍在，美联储继续加息预期之下美国国债收益率或将进一步上行，不过相比于美国，欧元区通胀和加息形势更为严峻，欧洲央行更大力度的加息将提振欧元汇率，减轻美元上涨压力，最后中国经济的复苏也有望抵消一部分人民币贬值压力。因此，未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。当前美国通胀压力依然较大，1月核心PCE同比增速4.71%，未能延续前期下跌态势，反而有所反弹，超出市场预期。美国本轮通胀从起因来看属于“复合型通胀”，既有美联储无限量QE和美国政府疫后激进的财政刺激因素，也有能源投资、供应链和劳动力的问题，同时2018年特朗普政府开启的逆全球化浪潮也破坏的全球供应链体系。从当前情况来看，虽然能源和供应链问题近几个月已经得到明显改善，但食品和工资通胀仍然居高不下，我们预计通胀中权重最大的住房租金分项上涨压力或将持续到今年9月，这可能导致美国PCE在未来几个月维持在偏高水平难以明显回落。目前预计3月美联储大概率重回加息50BP，到7月联邦基金利率区间可能升至5.5%至5.75%，同时也有不小的可能升至5.75%至6.0 %，相比目前共加息125BP。基准利率的态势最终也会反映到美债利率上，从历史上看两者最终将达到相同的高度。需要注意的是，当前欧元区面临更为严峻的通胀调整，这意味着欧央行“更高、更久”的加息。2月核心调和CPI超预期反弹，同比初值5.6%，预期为5.3%，市场普遍预计欧央行将在3月和5月累计加息100个基点，利率峰值将至4.1%左右。近日欧洲央行管委、奥地利央行行长罗伯特·霍尔兹曼在接受彭博采访时做出了鹰派表态：“我认为核心通胀在今年上半年不会明显减弱，将保持在当前水平附近。在这种情况下，我预计我们今年将再加息4次，加息0.5个百分点。即使这样，我们的存款利率也只有4%。只有在那里，我们才会大致进入限制区域。”按照罗伯特·霍尔兹曼提出的加息路径，欧洲央行存款机制利率将从目前的2.5%升至4.5%，远高于当前市场预期的4%的峰值，这也是迄今为止其他任何欧洲央行官员都未曾公开提出过的利率水平。从欧元诞生后的历史来看，欧元区通胀大幅超过美国的情况此前从未出现，因此我们也很难得到美联储、欧央行同时加息，欧洲加息更多，美元指数走平情形下的历史经验。因此我们仅从逻辑上进行分析：前文已经证明，美联储货币政策在某些阶段对A股拥有较大的影响力，从传导渠道分析，欧洲央行的影响力可以看做是弱化版的美联储。一方面，欧洲央行的大幅加息和潜在的日本央行货币政策调整将抬升全球货币成本，这将导致资金继续从新兴市场流出（或至少难以流入），同时科技成长风格承压，稳定周期风格强势。另一方面，欧洲股市相比美股的科技成长风格更加偏向价值，也没有估值的标杆性意义。通过风险偏好和情绪的渠道带动A股下跌的能力有限。A股走出独立行情关键在于自身基本面能否走强坚定加息不是坏事，风险最大时点已过对市场而言，高通胀背景下央行坚定加息并非坏事，加息犹豫导致通胀失控对市场负面冲击更大。从前两年的市场来看，当通胀高企但美联储加息不坚决时（2021年11月-2022年6月）美股跌幅最大，而当美联储坚定大幅加息时（2022年6月以来）美股反而止住了下跌的势头，市场波动降低。到现在加息带来的杀估值风险已经体现充分，美国如果未来进入衰退则可能导致美股“杀业绩”进入最后一跌。但对于A股而言冲击最大的时点已经过去。短期全球高通胀压力下，美国债收益率仍在走高，这将压制久期长、估值高、业绩差的品种股价表现，不过这并不意味着A股市场无法开启独立行情，也不意味着A股成长风格全面走弱。从历史上看，A股有多次在美债收益率上行背景下走出独立行情，甚至在此期间成长风格表现较好。其关键在于中国经济基本面表现明显优于美国，这有助于打破中美联动关系，屏除来自美联储的利率压力。几个美债收益率上行但A股走出独立行情或成长风格相对跑赢的时期包括：1）2008年12月-2009年6月，四万亿之后中国经济领先全球快速复苏。2）2013年5月-2013年12月，美联储制造Taper恐慌之际，中国也出现“钱荒”，无碍中小创大涨。3）2015年2月-2015年6月，中国经济企稳，美国经济一季度大幅回落，导致市场加息预期落空。4）2020年9月-2021年1月，中国经济疫情后率先复苏，美国经济紧随其后也明显回升。5）2022年5月-2022年6月，中国经济疫情冲击后迎来修复，美国为应对通胀大幅加息。我们预计中国经济在上半年有望完成触底回升。从我们对经济库存周期的跟踪来看，去年4月我国进入主动去库存阶段，根据历史上平均11个月的主动去库存周期和有望在今年4月见底的PPI来看，我们预计主动去库存阶段或将在今年3-5月结束，并进入被动去库存阶段。同时居民消费也有望在疫情政策放开、收入预期稳定后进一步恢复。中国经济有望从之前的“复常”转向真正的“复苏”。如果今年下半年能够形成“中国经济强+美国经济弱”的宏观基本面组合，A股将有望打破美联储制约，走出一段独立行情。风险提示：（1）海外美联储紧缩程度超预期。如果美国经济持续保持韧性，劳动力市场、零售等经济数据表现亮眼，那么美国衰退风险或将面临重估，同时通胀风险也将面临反弹，美联储紧缩抗通胀之路继续，全球流动性宽松不及预期，国内权益市场分母端难免也将承压。（2）欧洲通胀严重程度超预期。如果欧洲通胀继续超预期高企，欧洲央行将被迫多次大幅度加息，这将导致全球利率水平进一步抬升，甚至推动日本央行货币政策调整。全球市场可能告别低利率的投资环境，长久期资产面临较大风险。（3）国内经济复苏或稳增长政策实施效果不及预期。如果后续国内地产销售、投资等数据迟迟难以恢复，长期积累的城投偿债风险面临发酵，经济疫后复苏最终证伪，那么整体市场走势将会承压，过于乐观的定价预期将会面临修正。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902904,"gmtCreate":1678280308609,"gmtModify":1678280313066,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902904","repostId":"2317496400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317496400","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678279423,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317496400?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Non-farm payrolls have exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be \"another addition\" on Friday?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317496400","media":"金十数据","summary":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth because they overestimated the impact of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive rate hike action in decades. U.S. non-farm payrolls growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest running in decades.<b>If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Fed to continue its rate hike.</b></p><p>Since April last year, the median forecast of each survey of economists by foreign media has been 100,000 lower than the non-agricultural data released by the government on average per month, which is the largest gap among the data compiled by foreign media since 1998. For the February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday,<b>Market estimates are for an increase of 200,000 people, about half of January's increase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697290899720116a3782360dc5ae33fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth</b>, because they<b>Overestimates the impact of the Fed's most aggressive rate hike action in decades</b>。 After going through COVID-19 pandemic,<b>Businesses are reluctant to lay off employees they have worked so hard to hire</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">Apollo Global Management</a>Torsten Slok, the company's chief economist, said:</p><p>\"The market had been expecting a slowdown against the backdrop of the Fed's rate hike, but that simply hasn't happened.\" Employers are still struggling to fill millions of open jobs, and jobless claims are at an all-time low. On the other hand, some industries are laying off jobs and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate hike over the summer, which could put more pressure on demand and risk slowing hiring significantly.</p><p>At present,<b>The labor market is one of the last hurdles for the Fed's fight against inflation</b>。 Steady job creation and wage growth will keep consumers spending, which will keep prices rising. Understanding the trajectory of inflation is critical for policymakers trying to cool it without triggering a recession.</p><p>Here are some of the factors that will make payroll surprisingly strong:</p><p><b>The demand for workers remains high</b></p><p>As of the end of this year, there were more than 11 million jobs in the United States. At present, the market expects that the January JOLTs job openings in the United States announced on Wednesday are expected to show a slight slowdown in employment opportunities in January.<b>Vacancies are most visible in sectors such as leisure and hospitality and healthcare</b>, while other data shows manufacturers and small businesses are also struggling to fill the gaps.</p><p><b>With labour shortages so severe, businesses have been retaining workers in a practice known as'labour hoarding '</b>。 The Fed mentioned this at its last policy meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said:</p><p>\"If the trend of labor hoarding continues, it could keep the labor market stronger in the cycle for a while, and it's really hard to pinpoint the timing of a slowdown.\"<b>Small scope of layoffs</b></p><p>Although the technology industry is making drastic layoffs, about 110,000 people were laid off from November to January last year alone,<b>But that's a fraction of a workforce of nearly 166 million</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists say,<b>This situation is also largely limited to companies that have expanded aggressively during the pandemic and have seen their stock prices fall significantly</b>。 They said in a report:</p><p>\"These characteristics suggest that companies doing layoffs are not representative of the economy as a whole, and many recent layoff announcements do not necessarily mean weaker hiring demand that could have a broader impact.\" The Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows,<b>Broader measures of layoffs in the broader economy remain below pre-pandemic levels</b>, but it has increased in the past year.<b>Claims for unemployment benefits remain low, at less than 200,000 for seven weeks.</b></p><p>That may be partly due to severance payments,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economist Daniel Silver estimated last month that according to their model, the number of unemployment claims should increase by about 50,000, but the progress of corporate layoffs may be delayed because of severance pay.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>Unemployed Americans Could Soon Be Poached by Other Companies, Too</b>。 Hiring rates (hiring relative to total employment) remain above the pre-pandemic average.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Ryan expects the latest revised data released on Wednesday to make hiring rates look stronger.</p><p>It should be noted that employment returned to pre-pandemic levels in the middle of last year, so<b>It is natural that the pace of employment growth is slowing down</b>。 In addition, the Federal Reserve's rate hike may accelerate the trend of economic cooling. That's what the Fed is trying to design, which is to slow the pace of hiring to ease wage pressures and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics said in a report last month:</p><p>\"If the breadth of redundancy announcements widens, or re-employment rates begin to decline rapidly, it will indicate that cracks are forming in the labor market.\"</body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm payrolls have exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be \"another addition\" on Friday?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm payrolls have exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be \"another addition\" on Friday?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-08 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth because they overestimated the impact of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive rate hike action in decades. U.S. non-farm payrolls growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest running in decades.<b>If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Fed to continue its rate hike.</b></p><p>Since April last year, the median forecast of each survey of economists by foreign media has been 100,000 lower than the non-agricultural data released by the government on average per month, which is the largest gap among the data compiled by foreign media since 1998. For the February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday,<b>Market estimates are for an increase of 200,000 people, about half of January's increase.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697290899720116a3782360dc5ae33fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth</b>, because they<b>Overestimates the impact of the Fed's most aggressive rate hike action in decades</b>。 After going through COVID-19 pandemic,<b>Businesses are reluctant to lay off employees they have worked so hard to hire</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">Apollo Global Management</a>Torsten Slok, the company's chief economist, said:</p><p>\"The market had been expecting a slowdown against the backdrop of the Fed's rate hike, but that simply hasn't happened.\" Employers are still struggling to fill millions of open jobs, and jobless claims are at an all-time low. On the other hand, some industries are laying off jobs and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate hike over the summer, which could put more pressure on demand and risk slowing hiring significantly.</p><p>At present,<b>The labor market is one of the last hurdles for the Fed's fight against inflation</b>。 Steady job creation and wage growth will keep consumers spending, which will keep prices rising. Understanding the trajectory of inflation is critical for policymakers trying to cool it without triggering a recession.</p><p>Here are some of the factors that will make payroll surprisingly strong:</p><p><b>The demand for workers remains high</b></p><p>As of the end of this year, there were more than 11 million jobs in the United States. At present, the market expects that the January JOLTs job openings in the United States announced on Wednesday are expected to show a slight slowdown in employment opportunities in January.<b>Vacancies are most visible in sectors such as leisure and hospitality and healthcare</b>, while other data shows manufacturers and small businesses are also struggling to fill the gaps.</p><p><b>With labour shortages so severe, businesses have been retaining workers in a practice known as'labour hoarding '</b>。 The Fed mentioned this at its last policy meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said:</p><p>\"If the trend of labor hoarding continues, it could keep the labor market stronger in the cycle for a while, and it's really hard to pinpoint the timing of a slowdown.\"<b>Small scope of layoffs</b></p><p>Although the technology industry is making drastic layoffs, about 110,000 people were laid off from November to January last year alone,<b>But that's a fraction of a workforce of nearly 166 million</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists say,<b>This situation is also largely limited to companies that have expanded aggressively during the pandemic and have seen their stock prices fall significantly</b>。 They said in a report:</p><p>\"These characteristics suggest that companies doing layoffs are not representative of the economy as a whole, and many recent layoff announcements do not necessarily mean weaker hiring demand that could have a broader impact.\" The Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows,<b>Broader measures of layoffs in the broader economy remain below pre-pandemic levels</b>, but it has increased in the past year.<b>Claims for unemployment benefits remain low, at less than 200,000 for seven weeks.</b></p><p>That may be partly due to severance payments,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economist Daniel Silver estimated last month that according to their model, the number of unemployment claims should increase by about 50,000, but the progress of corporate layoffs may be delayed because of severance pay.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>Unemployed Americans Could Soon Be Poached by Other Companies, Too</b>。 Hiring rates (hiring relative to total employment) remain above the pre-pandemic average.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Ryan expects the latest revised data released on Wednesday to make hiring rates look stronger.</p><p>It should be noted that employment returned to pre-pandemic levels in the middle of last year, so<b>It is natural that the pace of employment growth is slowing down</b>。 In addition, the Federal Reserve's rate hike may accelerate the trend of economic cooling. That's what the Fed is trying to design, which is to slow the pace of hiring to ease wage pressures and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics said in a report last month:</p><p>\"If the breadth of redundancy announcements widens, or re-employment rates begin to decline rapidly, it will indicate that cracks are forming in the labor market.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107989&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cefea9bf585b43364836145fdefa6c19","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4588":"碎股","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107989&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317496400","content_text":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。美国非农就业人数增长已连续10个月超过市场预期，这是数十年来持续时间最长的一次。如果这一趋势继续延续下去，将加大美联储继续加息的压力。从去年4月开始，外媒对经济学家每次调查的预测中值都比政府公布的非农数据平均每月低10万人，这是外媒自1998年以来汇编的数据中差距最大的。对于周五公布的2月非农就业报告，市场预估为增加20万人，增幅约为1月的一半。经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。在经历了新冠疫情后，企业不愿意解雇他们辛辛苦苦雇用的员工。阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok表示：“市场一直预期，在美联储加息的背景下，经济将放缓，但这种情况根本没有发生。”雇主们仍在努力填补数百万个空缺职位，初请失业金申请人数也处于历史最低水平。另一方面，一些行业正在裁员，美联储预计将在夏季继续加息，这可能会对需求造成更大压力，并有大幅放缓招聘的风险。目前，劳动力市场是美联储对抗通胀的最后几个障碍之一。稳定的就业机会创造和工资增长将使消费者保持消费，从而使价格持续上涨。对于那些试图在不引发衰退的情况下为通胀降温的政策制定者来说，理解通胀的轨迹至关重要。以下是会让就业人数出奇强劲的一些因素：对工人的需求仍大截至今年年底，美国就业机会超过1100万个，目前，市场预期周三公布的美国1月JOLTs职位空缺预计将显示1月份就业机会略微放缓。空缺最明显的是休闲和酒店以及医疗保健等行业，而其他数据显示，制造商和小企业也在努力填补空缺。由于劳动力短缺如此严重，企业一直在留住工人，这种做法被称为“劳动力囤积”。美联储在上次政策会议上提到了这一点。德意志银行高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan说：“如果劳动力囤积的趋势持续下去，它可能会让劳动力市场在周期中更强劲一段时间，真的很难确定经济放缓的时间。”裁员范围小虽然科技行业正大刀阔斧地进行裁员，仅从去年11月到1月就裁了有11万人左右，但这在近1.66亿劳动力中只是一小部分。高盛的经济学家说，这种情况在很大程度上也仅限于那些在疫情期间积极扩张、股价跌幅很大的公司。他们在一份报告中称：“这些特征表明，进行裁员的公司并不能代表整体经济，近期许多裁员公告并不一定意味着可能产生更广泛影响的招聘需求疲软。”美国劳工统计局的数据显示，整体经济中更广泛的裁员指标仍低于疫情前的水平，不过在过去一年有所上升。申请失业救济的人数仍然很低，连续7周不到20万人。其中，部分原因可能是遣散费，摩根大通经济学家Daniel Silver上个月估计，根据他们的模型，失业救济申请人数应增加约5万人，但因为遣散费，企业裁员的进度可能会推迟。此外，失业的美国人也可能很快被其他公司挖走。招聘率（招聘人数相对于总就业人数）仍然高于疫情前的平均水平。德意志银行的Ryan预计，周三公布的最新修正数据将使招聘率看起来更加强劲。需要注意的是，就业人数在去年年中就已恢复到疫情前的水平，因此就业人数增长的速度放缓是很自然的。此外，美联储的加息可能会加速经济降温的趋势。这就是美联储正在努力设计的，即减缓招聘步伐，以缓解工资压力，并使通胀降至2%的目标。牛津经济研究院的Ryan Sweet上月在一份报告中表示：“如果裁员公告的广度扩大，或者再就业率开始迅速下降，这将表明劳动力市场正在形成裂缝。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":0.84,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,".DJI":0.84,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SPY":0.84,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SH":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902018,"gmtCreate":1678280296034,"gmtModify":1678280300014,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902018","repostId":"1101924070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101924070","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678279502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101924070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market news: The U.S. safety supervision agency is investigating the possible falling off of Tesla's steering wheel","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101924070","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, the U.S. auto safety regulator received two reports related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y began following complaints that the steering wheel may have fallen off while driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involved about 120,000 vehicles of the 2023 model year. In both cases, the Model Y was delivered to customers missing a bolt holding the steering wheel to the steering column, the agency said. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but when the car is stressed while driving, the steering wheel separates.</p><p>Both crashes occurred when the Model Y had low mileage, the agency said in documents posted on its website Wednesday. Investigators will look into how often the problem occurs, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market news: The U.S. safety supervision agency is investigating the possible falling off of Tesla's steering wheel</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket news: The U.S. safety supervision agency is investigating the possible falling off of Tesla's steering wheel\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-08 20:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, the U.S. auto safety regulator received two reports related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y began following complaints that the steering wheel may have fallen off while driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involved about 120,000 vehicles of the 2023 model year. In both cases, the Model Y was delivered to customers missing a bolt holding the steering wheel to the steering column, the agency said. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but when the car is stressed while driving, the steering wheel separates.</p><p>Both crashes occurred when the Model Y had low mileage, the agency said in documents posted on its website Wednesday. Investigators will look into how often the problem occurs, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101924070","content_text":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车。该机构说，在这两起案件中，Model Y交付给客户时，都缺少一个将方向盘固定在转向柱上的螺栓。一个摩擦装置固定住了方向盘，但当汽车在行驶过程中受力时，方向盘就会分离。该机构周三在其网站上公布的文件中说，这两起事故都发生在Model Y行驶里程较低的情况下。调查人员将调查问题发生的频率、受影响的车辆数量以及特斯拉的制造过程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949906758,"gmtCreate":1678280287875,"gmtModify":1678280291943,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949906758","repostId":"1101924070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101924070","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678279502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101924070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market news: The U.S. safety supervision agency is investigating the possible falling off of Tesla's steering wheel","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101924070","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, the U.S. auto safety regulator received two reports related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y began following complaints that the steering wheel may have fallen off while driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involved about 120,000 vehicles of the 2023 model year. In both cases, the Model Y was delivered to customers missing a bolt holding the steering wheel to the steering column, the agency said. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but when the car is stressed while driving, the steering wheel separates.</p><p>Both crashes occurred when the Model Y had low mileage, the agency said in documents posted on its website Wednesday. Investigators will look into how often the problem occurs, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market news: The U.S. safety supervision agency is investigating the possible falling off of Tesla's steering wheel</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket news: The U.S. safety supervision agency is investigating the possible falling off of Tesla's steering wheel\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-08 20:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, the U.S. auto safety regulator received two reports related to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y began following complaints that the steering wheel may have fallen off while driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involved about 120,000 vehicles of the 2023 model year. In both cases, the Model Y was delivered to customers missing a bolt holding the steering wheel to the steering column, the agency said. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but when the car is stressed while driving, the steering wheel separates.</p><p>Both crashes occurred when the Model Y had low mileage, the agency said in documents posted on its website Wednesday. Investigators will look into how often the problem occurs, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101924070","content_text":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车。该机构说，在这两起案件中，Model Y交付给客户时，都缺少一个将方向盘固定在转向柱上的螺栓。一个摩擦装置固定住了方向盘，但当汽车在行驶过程中受力时，方向盘就会分离。该机构周三在其网站上公布的文件中说，这两起事故都发生在Model Y行驶里程较低的情况下。调查人员将调查问题发生的频率、受影响的车辆数量以及特斯拉的制造过程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533686,"gmtCreate":1678019375845,"gmtModify":1678019379296,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533686","repostId":"1157059208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533861,"gmtCreate":1678019346453,"gmtModify":1678019350505,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533861","repostId":"1154440961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154440961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677989017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154440961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 12:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lei Jun's new story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154440961","media":"全天候科技","summary":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of ecological chain,</b></b><b>Instead</b><b><b>Tell the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>In the past few years, Xiaomi has built an ecological chain map, deployed in many smart device fields, and gradually allowed Mijia terminal smart products to penetrate into various IoT markets.</p><p>After the smartphone market entered the second half, Lei Jun no longer focused on the story of the ecological chain, but told the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun told the story of \"supply chain\" in the \"two sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, a representative of the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, one of which was about promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested encouraging and supporting the science and technology industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing, and the fundraising scale has increased from more than 6 billion last year to more than 9 billion yuan. The investment objectives of this fund focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream fields.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about the supply chain has made phased progress. Sinolink Securities's previous statistics show that as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of smart cars.</p><p>For a long time, \"cost performance\" has been the deepest label on Xiaomi. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for \"insufficient self-developed technical capabilities\". The investment in upstream core supply chain companies or technology companies shows Xiaomi's determination to strengthen its voice in the supply chain.</p><p>The opening of the supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>\"Voice\" for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>Since its debut in August last year, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from recent developments from Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs on the track of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>Among the suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that my country has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of bionic humanoid robots, but it still faces challenges such as the need to improve the performance of core components, insufficient application demand, and lack of large-scale mass production. Challenges such as capacity, imperfect application ecology and supporting support system.</p><p>To this end, he suggested: encouraging and supporting the science and technology industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry; Support complete machine enterprises to take the lead in creating a national innovation consortium and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecosystem of bionic humanoid robots and accelerate the cultivation of scene applications.</p><p>In June last year, under the effect of Musk's \"will launch humanoid robots\", concepts related to bionic humanoid robots became hot concepts in the domestic capital market, and this segmented track has also become the hottest track in the robotics industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi released the prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"Tieda\") at Lei Jun's annual speech before Tesla, and this enthusiasm also reached its peak.</p><p>The CyberOne launched by Xiaomi is not a PPT or a prop, but a prototype that can be taken out and interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per unit, and it is not yet possible to achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that Xiaomi was still in the first stage of its infancy with the highest degree of technology integration and difficulty.</p><p>Turning its attention abroad, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime released by Tesla on AI Day last year also did not reach the previously claimed level. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk, but I think it will walk in a few weeks.\"</p><p>Musk has previously released bold statements: the target price of Optimus Prime Optimus may be less than US $20,000, and more than one million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed the recent progress of Optimus Optimus at Tesla Investor Day: \"It doesn't work properly, but things are getting better.\"</p><p>Tesla is still increasing its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology found that Tesla China recently released job recruitment information in the direction of robotics, including automation control engineer (robot), electrical design engineer-robot development and application direction.</p><p>The prospects given by institutions are tempting. Global market research organization Marketsandmarkets predicts that the global humanoid robot market will increase from US $1.5 billion in 2022 to US $17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become another entrance after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>But it is undeniable that the bionic humanoid robot track is a track that requires long-term investment.</p><p>Domestically, there are still many realities that have to be solved in front of this track, such as core components, underlying operating systems and chips of robots, system design software, etc.</p><p><b>Tens of billions of funds focus on the integrated circuit industry chain</b></p><p>After raising more than 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, the \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2, Kingsoft announced that the company's subsidiaries Wuhan Kingsoft, Xiaomi Beijing, Xiaomi Wuhan, etc., entered into partnership agreements with other investors regarding the establishment of equity investment funds in integrated circuit-related fields, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Lei Jun's Xiaomi and Jinshan, the fund LP also includes Beijing Guidance Fund and Yizhuang State Investment, Tianjin Haichuang, Tianjin State-owned Beijing, Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Industrial Securities Investment, Zhaoyi Innovation, etc.</p><p>Compared with the initial fundraising in July last year, the fund has five more new faces: Wuhan Jinshan, Beijing Guidance Fund, Naxing Venture Capital, Diaowei, and Xinyin Haohong. The scale of the fund has also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in the first financing to 9.03 billion yuan, close to the target scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to industrial and commercial information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Zhizao Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Zhizao\"), which was registered and established on September 18, 2021, and the filing will be completed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the role of the fund, Kingsoft said that it is mainly engaged in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in unlisted companies.</p><p>The main targets are integrated circuits, as well as related upstream and downstream fields, covering new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, as well as upstream and downstream applications related to mobile terminal consumer goods and smart devices and supply chain.</p><p>It is not difficult to find that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current business of mobile phones and cars. For a long time, most of Xiaomi's investment business has basically focused on its main business and future development direction, carrying out technological upgrading and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automobiles and semiconductors.</p><p>Since the announcement of car manufacturing, Xiaomi has deployed a number of companies related to the automotive industry chain through investment and shareholding. According to Sinolink Securities's previous statistics, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of smart cars, including 17 companies in smart driving layout, 13 companies in smart electric layout, and 6 companies in smart cockpit layout. Among them, 22 companies are new investments in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investment actions were completed through Xiaomi Yangtze River Industrial Investment Fund. After the establishment of Xiaomi Zhichao, it focused more on the collaborative investment direction of Xiaomi's automotive business.</p><p>Public information shows that more than ten projects currently invested by Xiaomi Zhizao abroad all involve the automotive industry chain, including semiconductors, power batteries, core equipment parts and other links in the automotive industry chain.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's layout of the upstream and downstream fields of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as his previous layout of the Xiaomi ecological chain. This will help it further enhance the vertical integration capabilities of the vehicle business and ensure the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qthkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lei Jun's new story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLei Jun's new story\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全天候科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of ecological chain,</b></b><b>Instead</b><b><b>Tell the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>In the past few years, Xiaomi has built an ecological chain map, deployed in many smart device fields, and gradually allowed Mijia terminal smart products to penetrate into various IoT markets.</p><p>After the smartphone market entered the second half, Lei Jun no longer focused on the story of the ecological chain, but told the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun told the story of \"supply chain\" in the \"two sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, a representative of the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, one of which was about promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested encouraging and supporting the science and technology industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing, and the fundraising scale has increased from more than 6 billion last year to more than 9 billion yuan. The investment objectives of this fund focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream fields.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about the supply chain has made phased progress. Sinolink Securities's previous statistics show that as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of smart cars.</p><p>For a long time, \"cost performance\" has been the deepest label on Xiaomi. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for \"insufficient self-developed technical capabilities\". The investment in upstream core supply chain companies or technology companies shows Xiaomi's determination to strengthen its voice in the supply chain.</p><p>The opening of the supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>\"Voice\" for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>Since its debut in August last year, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from recent developments from Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs on the track of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>Among the suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that my country has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of bionic humanoid robots, but it still faces challenges such as the need to improve the performance of core components, insufficient application demand, and lack of large-scale mass production. Challenges such as capacity, imperfect application ecology and supporting support system.</p><p>To this end, he suggested: encouraging and supporting the science and technology industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry; Support complete machine enterprises to take the lead in creating a national innovation consortium and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecosystem of bionic humanoid robots and accelerate the cultivation of scene applications.</p><p>In June last year, under the effect of Musk's \"will launch humanoid robots\", concepts related to bionic humanoid robots became hot concepts in the domestic capital market, and this segmented track has also become the hottest track in the robotics industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi released the prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"Tieda\") at Lei Jun's annual speech before Tesla, and this enthusiasm also reached its peak.</p><p>The CyberOne launched by Xiaomi is not a PPT or a prop, but a prototype that can be taken out and interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per unit, and it is not yet possible to achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that Xiaomi was still in the first stage of its infancy with the highest degree of technology integration and difficulty.</p><p>Turning its attention abroad, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime released by Tesla on AI Day last year also did not reach the previously claimed level. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk, but I think it will walk in a few weeks.\"</p><p>Musk has previously released bold statements: the target price of Optimus Prime Optimus may be less than US $20,000, and more than one million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed the recent progress of Optimus Optimus at Tesla Investor Day: \"It doesn't work properly, but things are getting better.\"</p><p>Tesla is still increasing its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology found that Tesla China recently released job recruitment information in the direction of robotics, including automation control engineer (robot), electrical design engineer-robot development and application direction.</p><p>The prospects given by institutions are tempting. Global market research organization Marketsandmarkets predicts that the global humanoid robot market will increase from US $1.5 billion in 2022 to US $17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become another entrance after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>But it is undeniable that the bionic humanoid robot track is a track that requires long-term investment.</p><p>Domestically, there are still many realities that have to be solved in front of this track, such as core components, underlying operating systems and chips of robots, system design software, etc.</p><p><b>Tens of billions of funds focus on the integrated circuit industry chain</b></p><p>After raising more than 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, the \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2, Kingsoft announced that the company's subsidiaries Wuhan Kingsoft, Xiaomi Beijing, Xiaomi Wuhan, etc., entered into partnership agreements with other investors regarding the establishment of equity investment funds in integrated circuit-related fields, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Lei Jun's Xiaomi and Jinshan, the fund LP also includes Beijing Guidance Fund and Yizhuang State Investment, Tianjin Haichuang, Tianjin State-owned Beijing, Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Industrial Securities Investment, Zhaoyi Innovation, etc.</p><p>Compared with the initial fundraising in July last year, the fund has five more new faces: Wuhan Jinshan, Beijing Guidance Fund, Naxing Venture Capital, Diaowei, and Xinyin Haohong. The scale of the fund has also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in the first financing to 9.03 billion yuan, close to the target scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to industrial and commercial information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Zhizao Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Zhizao\"), which was registered and established on September 18, 2021, and the filing will be completed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the role of the fund, Kingsoft said that it is mainly engaged in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in unlisted companies.</p><p>The main targets are integrated circuits, as well as related upstream and downstream fields, covering new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, as well as upstream and downstream applications related to mobile terminal consumer goods and smart devices and supply chain.</p><p>It is not difficult to find that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current business of mobile phones and cars. For a long time, most of Xiaomi's investment business has basically focused on its main business and future development direction, carrying out technological upgrading and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automobiles and semiconductors.</p><p>Since the announcement of car manufacturing, Xiaomi has deployed a number of companies related to the automotive industry chain through investment and shareholding. According to Sinolink Securities's previous statistics, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of smart cars, including 17 companies in smart driving layout, 13 companies in smart electric layout, and 6 companies in smart cockpit layout. Among them, 22 companies are new investments in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investment actions were completed through Xiaomi Yangtze River Industrial Investment Fund. After the establishment of Xiaomi Zhichao, it focused more on the collaborative investment direction of Xiaomi's automotive business.</p><p>Public information shows that more than ten projects currently invested by Xiaomi Zhizao abroad all involve the automotive industry chain, including semiconductors, power batteries, core equipment parts and other links in the automotive industry chain.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's layout of the upstream and downstream fields of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as his previous layout of the Xiaomi ecological chain. This will help it further enhance the vertical integration capabilities of the vehicle business and ensure the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320\">全天候科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb44f0df3fb7312ee913474e800cc495","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154440961","content_text":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。近日，雷军将“供应链”的故事讲上了“两会”。2023年，作为全国人大代表的雷军准备了3份建议案，其中一份关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展。雷军建议，鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局。同样在这个月，“小米百亿基金”开展了第二轮融资，募资规模已从去年60多亿增至90多亿元。而这支基金的投资目标着重于集成电路以及相关上游及下游领域。小米关于供应链的故事已取得阶段性进展。国金证券此前统计数据显示，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家。一直以来，“性价比”是小米身上最深的标签。这也成为小米被外界诟病“自研技术能力不足”的原因。而对上游核心供应链企业或技术企业的投资，表明小米希望强供应链话语权的决心。供应链布局的开启，是雷军和小米试图抓住市场机遇的一次蓄力与尝试。雷军的新故事能否讲成？为人形机器人产业链“发声”去年8月亮相之后，有关小米仿生人形机器人CyberOne的消息一直不多。不过最近从小米传出的动态来看，雷军希望能在仿生人形机器人这个赛道上有更多的突破。在关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展的建议中，雷军认为，目前我国在仿生人形机器人核心技术方面已取得关键突破，但仍然面临核心部组件性能有待提升、应用需求牵引不足、不具备规模化量产能力、应用生态和配套支撑体系不健全等挑战。为此，他建议：鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局；支持整机企业牵头创建国家创新联合体，加强核心技术联合攻关；构建仿生人形机器人开放产业生态，加速场景应用培育。去年6月，在马斯克“将推出人形机器人”效应下，仿生人形机器人相关概念成为国内资本市场上的热门概念，这个细分赛道也成为机器人行业最热的赛道。两个月后，小米先于特斯拉在雷军年度演讲会上发布原型仿生机器人CyberOne（内部艺名“铁大”），这股热情也随之达到峰值。小米推出的CyberOne不是PPT，也不是道具，是可以拿出手的原型机，能与人进行互动。遗憾的是，CyberOne的成本每台高达六、七十万元，尚无法实现量产。彼时，雷军坦承，形仿生机器人的技术集成度最高、难度也最大，小米还处于刚刚起步的第一阶段。将视线转向国外，特斯拉在去年AI Day上发布的人形机器人擎天柱Optimus，同样没有达到此前宣称的水平。用马斯克的话来说，“它还没有完全准备好走路，但我认为它会在几周内走路。”马斯克此前放出豪言：擎天柱Optimus的目标价格可能低于2万美元，还要量产百万台之上。然而，马斯克在特斯拉投资者日上透露了擎天柱Optimus的最近进展：“无法正常工作，不过情况正在好转。”特斯拉仍在不断加大关于人形机器人的投入。全天候科技发现，特斯拉中国近期发布了机器人方向的岗位招聘信息，包括自动化控制工程师（机器人）、电气设计工程师-机器人开发及其应用方向。机构给出的前景很诱人。全球市场研究机构Marketsandmarkets预测，全球人形机器人市场规模将从2022年的15亿美元提升至2027年的173亿美元。民生证券认为，人形机器人有望成为继手机、汽车后的又一入口，商业价值巨大。但不可否认，仿生人形机器人赛道是一个需要长期投入的赛道。就国内而言，摆在这条赛道面前且不得不解决的现实还不少，如核心零部件、机器人底层操作系统与芯片、系统设计软件等。百亿基金聚焦集成电路产业链在去年首次募资超60亿元后，“小米百亿基金”在这个月又展开了第二轮融资。3月2日，金山软件公告称，公司附属公司武汉金山、小米北京、小米武汉等，与其他投资者订立合伙协议，内容有关成立集成电路相关领域股权投资基金，预期总规模100亿元。除雷军系的小米、金山外，该基金LP还包含北京国资背景的北京市引导基金、亦庄国投，天津国资北京的天津海创，以及海南华盈开泰、广州华多、兴证投资、兆易创新等。相较去年7月首次募资，该基金多5位新面孔：武汉金山、北京市引导基金、纳星创投、帝奥微、信银浩鸿。基金规模也从首次融资的63.3亿元增至90.3亿元，接近百亿目标规模。工商信息显示，该基金全名为：北京小米智造股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“小米智造”），2021年9月18日注册成立，2022年4月6日完成备案。对于该基金的作用，金山软件称：主要从事股权投资或准股权投资，或对非上市公司进行投资相关活动。主要对象便是集成电路，以及相关上游及下游领域，涵盖新一代信息科技、 智能制造、新材料、人工智能、显示器及显示装置、汽车电子，以及有关移动终端消费品、智能装置的上游及下游应用及供应链。从中不难发现，这些与小米当前业务手机、汽车密切相关。一直以来，小米的大部分投资业务基本围绕其主营业务和未来发展方向，进行技术提升和产业链布局，例如人工智能、物联网、汽车和半导体等。自宣布造车以来，小米就通过投资及入股等方式，布局多家汽车产业链相关企业。据国金证券此前统计，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家，其中智能驾驶布局17家企业，智能电动布局13家企业，智能座舱布局6家企业，当中有22家企业是2021年新增投资。此前，小米多数半导体投资动作是通过小米长江产业投资基金完成的。小米智造成立后，其更聚焦小米汽车业务协同投资方向。公开信息显示，小米智造目前对外投资的十余个项目，均涉及汽车产业链，包括汽车产业链半导体、动力电池、核心设备零件等多个环节。有行业人士分析认为，雷军布局集成电路产业上下游领域，与此前布局小米生态链如出一辙。这有利于其进一步提升整车业务的垂直整合能力，保障汽车关键零部件和软件系统供应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533102,"gmtCreate":1678019336606,"gmtModify":1678019340244,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533102","repostId":"2317152105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533357,"gmtCreate":1678019323780,"gmtModify":1678019326433,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533357","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automotive markets in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually rises, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. They have also improved the battery capacity through technological improvements, thus extending the original cruising range. They have been very popular among car companies in recent years.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China last year; In the United States, this proportion is only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But that trend is about to change-there are signs that the battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle markets in the United States and Japan, and seizing the market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after the new $1.6 billion plant goes online next year; By 2027, the company plans to supply enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery production capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that judging from the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery start-up Kore Power also predicts that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The plant the company plans to open in Arizona by the end of 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Etc. are also promoting the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>At the same time, Ford Motor announced that the two parties will cooperate in building a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to US $3.5 billion in the new factory. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license patented battery technologies; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of batteries and vehicles, and some equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate battery enters Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts) and can store 450,000 The electricity consumption of 50,000 households in a day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX, a renewable energy start-up established in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of the current mainstream product of fixed batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use fixed lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced in the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging equipment in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese companies accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies have an overwhelming advantage in the field of automotive batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>Data from the South Korean SNE survey show that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, the top two places are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the expansion speed of the electric vehicle market. After 2010, China issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location selection of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is also leading the way.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that the company's battery can make pure electric vehicles last more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch the \"M3P\" battery improved from lithium iron phosphate battery in 2023. The range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion batteries, which are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the United States because they had worse endurance than batteries like NMC, but could be recharged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said endurance is seen as too important for U.S. drivers to sacrifice it for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would recommend you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>In the past three years, the price of nickel has more than doubled; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also soared. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are very poor. Between 2020 and 2022, cobalt prices also rose sharply before falling back to levels they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>In addition, the adoption of public charging stations, driven by federal government subsidies, will accelerate, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery life. From a safety point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCapturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automotive markets in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually rises, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. They have also improved the battery capacity through technological improvements, thus extending the original cruising range. They have been very popular among car companies in recent years.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China last year; In the United States, this proportion is only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But that trend is about to change-there are signs that the battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle markets in the United States and Japan, and seizing the market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after the new $1.6 billion plant goes online next year; By 2027, the company plans to supply enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery production capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that judging from the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery start-up Kore Power also predicts that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The plant the company plans to open in Arizona by the end of 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Etc. are also promoting the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>At the same time, Ford Motor announced that the two parties will cooperate in building a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to US $3.5 billion in the new factory. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license patented battery technologies; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of batteries and vehicles, and some equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate battery enters Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts) and can store 450,000 The electricity consumption of 50,000 households in a day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX, a renewable energy start-up established in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of the current mainstream product of fixed batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use fixed lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced in the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging equipment in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese companies accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies have an overwhelming advantage in the field of automotive batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>Data from the South Korean SNE survey show that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, the top two places are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the expansion speed of the electric vehicle market. After 2010, China issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location selection of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is also leading the way.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that the company's battery can make pure electric vehicles last more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch the \"M3P\" battery improved from lithium iron phosphate battery in 2023. The range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion batteries, which are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the United States because they had worse endurance than batteries like NMC, but could be recharged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said endurance is seen as too important for U.S. drivers to sacrifice it for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would recommend you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>In the past three years, the price of nickel has more than doubled; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also soared. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are very poor. Between 2020 and 2022, cobalt prices also rose sharply before falling back to levels they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>In addition, the adoption of public charging stations, driven by federal government subsidies, will accelerate, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery life. From a safety point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533953,"gmtCreate":1678019317273,"gmtModify":1678019321152,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533953","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automotive markets in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually rises, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. They have also improved the battery capacity through technological improvements, thus extending the original cruising range. They have been very popular among car companies in recent years.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China last year; In the United States, this proportion is only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But that trend is about to change-there are signs that the battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle markets in the United States and Japan, and seizing the market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after the new $1.6 billion plant goes online next year; By 2027, the company plans to supply enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery production capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that judging from the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery start-up Kore Power also predicts that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The plant the company plans to open in Arizona by the end of 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Etc. are also promoting the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>At the same time, Ford Motor announced that the two parties will cooperate in building a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to US $3.5 billion in the new factory. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license patented battery technologies; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of batteries and vehicles, and some equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate battery enters Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts) and can store 450,000 The electricity consumption of 50,000 households in a day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX, a renewable energy start-up established in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of the current mainstream product of fixed batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use fixed lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced in the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging equipment in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese companies accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies have an overwhelming advantage in the field of automotive batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>Data from the South Korean SNE survey show that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, the top two places are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the expansion speed of the electric vehicle market. After 2010, China issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location selection of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is also leading the way.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that the company's battery can make pure electric vehicles last more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch the \"M3P\" battery improved from lithium iron phosphate battery in 2023. The range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion batteries, which are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the United States because they had worse endurance than batteries like NMC, but could be recharged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said endurance is seen as too important for U.S. drivers to sacrifice it for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would recommend you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>In the past three years, the price of nickel has more than doubled; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also soared. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are very poor. Between 2020 and 2022, cobalt prices also rose sharply before falling back to levels they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>In addition, the adoption of public charging stations, driven by federal government subsidies, will accelerate, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery life. From a safety point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCapturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automotive markets in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually rises, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. They have also improved the battery capacity through technological improvements, thus extending the original cruising range. They have been very popular among car companies in recent years.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China last year; In the United States, this proportion is only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But that trend is about to change-there are signs that the battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle markets in the United States and Japan, and seizing the market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after the new $1.6 billion plant goes online next year; By 2027, the company plans to supply enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery production capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that judging from the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery start-up Kore Power also predicts that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The plant the company plans to open in Arizona by the end of 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Etc. are also promoting the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>At the same time, Ford Motor announced that the two parties will cooperate in building a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to US $3.5 billion in the new factory. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license patented battery technologies; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of batteries and vehicles, and some equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate battery enters Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts) and can store 450,000 The electricity consumption of 50,000 households in a day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX, a renewable energy start-up established in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of the current mainstream product of fixed batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use fixed lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced in the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging equipment in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese companies accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies have an overwhelming advantage in the field of automotive batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>Data from the South Korean SNE survey show that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, the top two places are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the expansion speed of the electric vehicle market. After 2010, China issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location selection of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is also leading the way.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that the company's battery can make pure electric vehicles last more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch the \"M3P\" battery improved from lithium iron phosphate battery in 2023. The range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion batteries, which are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the United States because they had worse endurance than batteries like NMC, but could be recharged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said endurance is seen as too important for U.S. drivers to sacrifice it for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would recommend you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>In the past three years, the price of nickel has more than doubled; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also soared. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are very poor. Between 2020 and 2022, cobalt prices also rose sharply before falling back to levels they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>In addition, the adoption of public charging stations, driven by federal government subsidies, will accelerate, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery life. From a safety point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940214961,"gmtCreate":1677945142254,"gmtModify":1677945145645,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940214961","repostId":"2316133358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940165254,"gmtCreate":1677758940478,"gmtModify":1677758943236,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940165254","repostId":"1104041863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104041863","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677758577,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104041863?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-02 20:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-on-year, fiscal 2024 performance guidance fell short of expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104041863","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月2日，百思买公布了2023财年第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，百思买Q4营收同比下降10%至147.35亿美元，略好于市场预期的147.2亿美元;净利润为4.95亿美元，上年同期为6.26亿美元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBY\">Best Buy</a>Announced its fourth quarter and full year financial results for fiscal year 2023. The financial report shows that Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell by 10% year-on-year to US $14.735 billion, slightly better than market expectations of US $14.72 billion; Net profit was US $495 million, compared with US $626 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; Adjusted earnings per share were $2.61, better than consensus expectations of $2.10 and $2.73 in the same period last year.</p><p>Q4 gross profit was US $2.94 billion, compared with US $3.313 billion in the same period last year; Gross profit margin was 20.0%, compared with 20.2% in the same period last year. Operating profit was US $597 million, compared with US $803 million in the same period last year; Operating margin was 4.1%, compared with 4.9% in the same period last year.</p><p>By business, domestic business revenue was US $13.531 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% in comparable sales; Among them, the decline in comparable sales of computers, home theaters, home appliances and mobile phones was the biggest driving factor, offsetting the increase in comparable sales in the gaming and tablet categories. International business revenue was US $1.204 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, which was mainly attributable to a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in comparable sales and the negative impact of foreign exchange rates of approximately 570 basis points.</p><p>For the full year of fiscal year 2023, Best Buy's revenue was US $46.298 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; Net profit was US $1.419 billion, compared with US $2.454 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 42%; Adjusted earnings per share were $7.08, compared with $10.01 in the same period last year.</p><p>Looking ahead, Best Buy expects full-year revenue in fiscal year 2024 to be US $43.8 billion to US $45.2 billion, which is lower than analysts' expectations of US $45.69 billion; Comparable sales are expected to decline by 3.0%-6.0% year-over-year, higher than analysts' expectations for a year-over-year decline of 1.7%; Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $5.70-$6.50, missing analysts' expectations of $6.72. \"As we enter fiscal 2024, the consumer electronics industry will continue to feel broader macroeconomic headwinds and their impact on consumers,\" said Matt Bilunas, the company's CEO.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bec2d0a3740885a4b9a40fbaf735192\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"869\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After the financial report was announced, Best Buy fell 3.6% before the market, but now it has narrowed to 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebae3d342481c8a53cb5dcdda7c3bc2\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-on-year, fiscal 2024 performance guidance fell short of expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-on-year, fiscal 2024 performance guidance fell short of expectations\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-02 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBY\">Best Buy</a>Announced its fourth quarter and full year financial results for fiscal year 2023. The financial report shows that Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell by 10% year-on-year to US $14.735 billion, slightly better than market expectations of US $14.72 billion; Net profit was US $495 million, compared with US $626 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; Adjusted earnings per share were $2.61, better than consensus expectations of $2.10 and $2.73 in the same period last year.</p><p>Q4 gross profit was US $2.94 billion, compared with US $3.313 billion in the same period last year; Gross profit margin was 20.0%, compared with 20.2% in the same period last year. Operating profit was US $597 million, compared with US $803 million in the same period last year; Operating margin was 4.1%, compared with 4.9% in the same period last year.</p><p>By business, domestic business revenue was US $13.531 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% in comparable sales; Among them, the decline in comparable sales of computers, home theaters, home appliances and mobile phones was the biggest driving factor, offsetting the increase in comparable sales in the gaming and tablet categories. International business revenue was US $1.204 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, which was mainly attributable to a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in comparable sales and the negative impact of foreign exchange rates of approximately 570 basis points.</p><p>For the full year of fiscal year 2023, Best Buy's revenue was US $46.298 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; Net profit was US $1.419 billion, compared with US $2.454 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 42%; Adjusted earnings per share were $7.08, compared with $10.01 in the same period last year.</p><p>Looking ahead, Best Buy expects full-year revenue in fiscal year 2024 to be US $43.8 billion to US $45.2 billion, which is lower than analysts' expectations of US $45.69 billion; Comparable sales are expected to decline by 3.0%-6.0% year-over-year, higher than analysts' expectations for a year-over-year decline of 1.7%; Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $5.70-$6.50, missing analysts' expectations of $6.72. \"As we enter fiscal 2024, the consumer electronics industry will continue to feel broader macroeconomic headwinds and their impact on consumers,\" said Matt Bilunas, the company's CEO.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bec2d0a3740885a4b9a40fbaf735192\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"869\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After the financial report was announced, Best Buy fell 3.6% before the market, but now it has narrowed to 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebae3d342481c8a53cb5dcdda7c3bc2\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b2c0949e3b18adb17e6e40d830d4d9","relate_stocks":{"BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BBY":"百思买","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104041863","content_text":"3月2日，百思买公布了2023财年第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，百思买Q4营收同比下降10%至147.35亿美元，略好于市场预期的147.2亿美元;净利润为4.95亿美元，上年同期为6.26亿美元，同比下降21%;调整后每股收益为2.61美元，好于市场预期的2.10美元，上年同期为2.73美元。Q4毛利润为29.40亿美元，上年同期为33.13亿美元;毛利率为20.0%，上年同期为20.2%。运营利润为5.97亿美元，上年同期为8.03亿美元;运营利润率为4.1%，上年同期为4.9%。按业务划分，国内业务营收为135.31亿美元，同比下降9.8%，主要原因是可比销售额同比下降9.6%;其中，电脑、家庭影院、家电和移动电话的可比销售额下滑是最大驱动因素，抵消了游戏和平板电脑类别可比销售额的增长。国际业务营收为12.04亿美元，同比下降12%，这主要归因于可比销售额同比下降5.7%、以及外汇汇率约570个基点的负面影响。2023财年全年，百思买营收为462.98亿美元，同比下降11%;净利润为14.19亿美元，上年同期为24.54亿美元，同比下降42%;调整后每股收益为7.08美元，上年同期为10.01美元。展望未来，百思买预计，2024财年全年营收为438亿-452亿美元，不及分析师预期的456.9亿美元;预计可比销售额将同比下降3.0%-6.0%，高于分析师预期的同比下降1.7%;预计调整后每股收益为5.70-6.50美元，不及分析师预期的6.72美元。该公司首席执行官Matt Bilunas表示：“随着我们进入2024财年，消费电子行业将继续感受到更广泛的宏观经济逆风及其对消费者的影响。”财报公布后，百思买盘前一度跌3.6%，现收窄至1%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940956349,"gmtCreate":1677662739182,"gmtModify":1677671507968,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940956349","repostId":"2316958326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9096255851,"gmtCreate":1644408027408,"gmtModify":1676533922187,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096255851","repostId":"1196471828","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196471828","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644395848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196471828?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-09 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196471828","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfol","content":"<div>\n<p>Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 16:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GE":"GE航空航天","ORA":"奥玛特科技","RUN":"Sunrun Inc.","ED":"爱迪生联合电气","NEE":"新纪元能源","FSLR":"第一太阳能"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196471828","content_text":"Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to the decline in value for many renewable energy stocks. For one, the wind and solar industries haven’t received the sorts of subsidies that traders were hoping for from the Biden Administration.For another, many green energy companies don’t generate much in the way of near-term profits or cash flows. Thus, they’ve gotten caught up in the broad market-based selling around all sorts of speculative growth companies.It’s certainly not all blue skies ahead for the renewable energy industry. Shortcomings — particularly as it relates to lack of storage capacity — have become painfully apparent in recent months.Look at thespiraling electricity crisisthis winter in Europe for one example. Still, after seeing many renewable energy stocks drop by 50% or more, it’s time to take a fresh look.Here are seven names that could stand out, even during this volatile period for the renewable energy industry:SunrunFirst SolarNextEraConsolidated EdisonOrmat TechnologiesAtlantica Sustainable InfrastructureGeneral ElectricSunrunSource: IgorGolovniov / Shutterstock.comSolar energy stocks were blazing hot at the beginning of the Biden Administration. Between the November 2020 election and Inauguration Day 2021, the price of Sunrun stock soared almost 52%.Particularly with Democrats in control of the House of Representatives and Senate, in addition to the presidency, a robust era of clean energy spending was supposed to commence.However, there’s been limited legislative traction for green energy. Much of Washington D.C.’s attention has understandably turned to more immediate issues such as dealing with the societal and economic impacts of the Covid-19 crisis.Attempts at a grand series of Build Back Better infrastructure bills have gotten pruned down to a much-smaller package.This has hit the solar industry hard with smaller, more-speculative names like SunRun getting walloped. RUN stock is down nearly 70% over the past year.Sunrun operates in the home solar space and has shown incredible growth — north of 30% — despite already having a large installed base.However, Sunrun has gotten hit on all fronts. The lack of expected subsidy support has dimmed near-term expectations. Meanwhile, supply chain and inflation issues are a threat to crush profit margins.In addition, the company borrowed heavily during brighter times and now faces growing investor skepticism around its balance sheet.There’s plenty of risk at SunRun to be sure. However, with the stock down from a 52-week high of $85 to just $25 now, RUN stock is one of the highest-voltage ways to get exposure to a potential solar industry rebound.FirstSolarSource: IgorGolovniov / Shutterstock.comFirst Solar is a more conservative way to play the solar industry. It is one of the leading manufacturers of panels.It’s not nearly as much of a growth play as something like Sunrun. However, it’s actually highly profitable, which is something of a rarity in the solar industry at the moment.The company will have earned roughly $3.50 per share for full-year 2021 once it announces results later this month. That will put the stock around 20x full-year 2021 earnings.Analysts see First Solar’s earnings dropping in 2022. After that, however, the consensus has 2023 earnings recovering to 2021 levels, giving First Solar a solid base of profitability in the intermediate term.Some of First Solar’s strategic advantage is due to using a differentiated technology for making its panels as opposed to commodity producers overseas.Another element of its success came from the Trump Administration’s move to slap tariffs on imported solar panels. Biden’s team recently announced that it will easebut not altogether eliminatethese tariffs.That’s an additional win for First Solar, which has invested heavily in its Ohio-based manufacturing facilities.NextEraSource: madamF / Shutterstock.comAnother way to get involved in the renewable energy wave is through power utilities. Not all utilities have a strong renewable energy angle. A few stand out, however. Florida-based NextEra is one of the leaders in solar power deployment nationally.It does have a traditional regulated utility business that offers stable predictable cash flows.Where things get more exciting is with its separate arm in the construction and design of large-scale renewable power projects around the country. This gives NextEra an attractive source of additional income.These development projects tend to be in a competitive market and thus can earn higher returns on equity than traditional utility power where returns are generally set by state regulators.Additionally, NextEra has benefited in a huge way from passive index fund flows. NextEra scores highly on environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards and thus is a leading investment for many funds in the socially-conscious, green, and millennial categories.As more and more money floods into these ESG-type investments, NextEra should be one of the largest recipients of these inflows.Consolidated EdisonSource: Pand P Studio / Shutterstock.comConsolidated Edison is another of the pioneers in the renewable utility space. The New York City power company is one of the world’s oldest power utilities.Even with its storied history, it has managed to keep up with the times. Indeed, today, it’s now the second-largest operator of utility-scale solar power in the U.S.That’s good in its own right. Given the political climate on the East Coast, the renewable focus is particularly useful. ConEd is already ahead of the curve in terms of upping its investments in green energy while other utilities will have to rush to meet phase-outs around the use of dirtier fuels.\\From an investor’s perspective, ConEd is a classic growth and income holding. The company has increased its dividend for 48 years in a row, making it one of the few Dividend Aristocrats in the power utility sector. ED stock has delivered steadily rising dividends and some capital appreciation for decades, and its quick adoption of renewables should keep that streak going for many years to come.Ormat TechnologiesSource: riekephotos / Shutterstock.comOrmat Technologies is the global leader in geothermal power generation. The company was founded way back in 1965 and has developed more than 190 power plants over the decades. It has been in the green energy game for a long time, giving it a level of domain expertise and cyclical knowledge that most newer rivals don’t yet possess.For a long time, analysts viewed geothermal as a fringe alternative in the power generation business. However, it has really had its moment to shine over the past few years. That’s due to geothermal’s much higher reliability. Geothermal is almost always available, making it a baseload generator that doesn’t experience the sorts of drastic fluctuations in supply that you see with wind or solar.Sure, geothermal has drawbacks. It is often in remote locations, costs can be somewhat unattractive at times, and it’s harder to build at vast scale compared to other alternatives. However, in a world that is rapidly discovering some drawbacks with intermittent green power sources, geothermal has carved out a solid space for itself.Ormat in particular is profitable and has an attractive business outlook. ORA stock was fairly quiet between the mid-2000s and 2015. However, since then, shares as much as quintupled before hitting their peak in 2021. Since then, like so many growth stocks, Ormat’s shares have sharply from their peak. However, the long-term trajectory should keep pointing upward.Atlantica Sustainable InfrastructureSource: Chart by Josh EnomotoOne of the more interesting trends in natural resources of the past decade has been royalty companies. Specialty finance firms will provide financing to an oil & gas or mining company, and, in return, get a stream of mineral production once the project comes online.Atlantica is offering investors a similar sort of structure in the renewable energy space. It finances renewable energy projects that are set to be built. After the renewable power generation asset is up and running, Atlantica offloads energy to end purchasers and gets to keep a favorable spread. This gives investors a royalty structure that should deliver steadier returns and a solid dividend from what has historically been a volatile industry.Atlantica does have some other assets as well, namely investments in water, transmission lines, and natural gas. However, roughly 75% of its assets are in renewables such as wind and geothermal. AY stock currently offers a 5.5% dividend yield, making it an interest choice for green energy investors that also want some immediate income.General ElectricSource: testing / Shutterstock.comFinally, for investors that want a broader industrial play with emphasis on green energy exposure, don’t forget about GE.General Electric has been on a multi-year journey to turn its business around and rectify the errors of past management teams. This transformation continues at aggressive speed under star CEO Larry Culp. GE is unloading its large aircraft leasing business and has several more asset divestures and spins on the way.It’s a complicated company, and the name GE leaves many investors with a bad taste. However, operating results are picking up steam and analysts see it as quite cheap. Morningstar’s Joshua Aguilar currently pegsfair value at $133versus a current share price around $100. That’s an attractive discount, and GE stock gives investors exposure to solid power assets such as its wind turbines and power grid systems solutions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AY":0.9,"RUN":0.9,"FSLR":0.9,"GE":0.9,"ORA":0.9,"NEE":0.9,"ED":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078099688,"gmtCreate":1657591568644,"gmtModify":1676536031497,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"no","listText":"no","text":"no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078099688","repostId":"2250956995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2250956995","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657586328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250956995?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-12 08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bearish sentiment is bursting! US stock reverse leveraged ETF inflows of $1.4 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250956995","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，由于衰退风险和对二季度财报季的悲观预期，市场看空情绪加剧，交易员纷纷涌入做空美股的交易所交易基金。最近一个交易日，ProShares三倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF净流入2.475. ProShares三倍做空标普500ETF的资产规模达16亿美元，自6月初以来资产规模大约翻了一番。投资者已连续12个交易日向该基金注入大量资金，在此期间累计流入8.75亿美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP learned that due to recession risks and pessimistic expectations for the second-quarter earnings season, bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, and traders have flocked to exchange-traded funds shorting U.S. stocks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>)。</p><p>On the most recent trading day, ProShares tripled the Nasdaq Index ETF (SQQQ.US) with a net inflow of $247.5 million. It was the fund's largest single-day net inflow in more than a month and the fourth consecutive day of inflows, with inflows totaling about $518 million. The fund is betting against the tech-dominated Nasdaq 100.</p><p>It's not just tech stocks that are targeted at the bearish. ProShares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPXU\">Triple Short S&P 500 ETF</a>(SPXU.US) has $1.6 billion in assets, roughly doubling its assets since early June. Investors have poured heavily into the fund for 12 consecutive trading days, accumulating inflows of $875 million over that period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c496bfba470ff9a017dba173c16989\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SQQQ seeks an investment return equivalent to three times the inverse daily performance of the Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 27% year to date, while the SQQQ has surged more than 77% as rising interest rates hit the growth prospects of tech stocks. SPXU, which tracks the triple inverse daily performance of the S&P 500, is up 53% this year, while the S&P 500 is down 19%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick said bearish sentiment has intensified in the market, \"thinking that aggressive traders will shift their attention to hedging or speculating on the downside is wise.\"</p><p>Multi-decade high inflation in the United States, a wave of monetary tightening and the risk of a global economic slowdown have all kept investors bearish on stocks, even as $18 trillion was wiped off from global stocks in the first half of this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategists predict that in a recession, the S&P 500 could fall to 3,000 points, down 22% from current levels.</p><p>Interactive Brokers' Sosnick said, \"Buying on the dip doesn't work. When it does, it's usually for a short period of time.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bearish sentiment is bursting! US stock reverse leveraged ETF inflows of $1.4 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBearish sentiment is bursting! US stock reverse leveraged ETF inflows of $1.4 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-12 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP learned that due to recession risks and pessimistic expectations for the second-quarter earnings season, bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, and traders have flocked to exchange-traded funds shorting U.S. stocks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETFs</a>)。</p><p>On the most recent trading day, ProShares tripled the Nasdaq Index ETF (SQQQ.US) with a net inflow of $247.5 million. It was the fund's largest single-day net inflow in more than a month and the fourth consecutive day of inflows, with inflows totaling about $518 million. The fund is betting against the tech-dominated Nasdaq 100.</p><p>It's not just tech stocks that are targeted at the bearish. ProShares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPXU\">Triple Short S&P 500 ETF</a>(SPXU.US) has $1.6 billion in assets, roughly doubling its assets since early June. Investors have poured heavily into the fund for 12 consecutive trading days, accumulating inflows of $875 million over that period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c496bfba470ff9a017dba173c16989\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SQQQ seeks an investment return equivalent to three times the inverse daily performance of the Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 27% year to date, while the SQQQ has surged more than 77% as rising interest rates hit the growth prospects of tech stocks. SPXU, which tracks the triple inverse daily performance of the S&P 500, is up 53% this year, while the S&P 500 is down 19%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick said bearish sentiment has intensified in the market, \"thinking that aggressive traders will shift their attention to hedging or speculating on the downside is wise.\"</p><p>Multi-decade high inflation in the United States, a wave of monetary tightening and the risk of a global economic slowdown have all kept investors bearish on stocks, even as $18 trillion was wiped off from global stocks in the first half of this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategists predict that in a recession, the S&P 500 could fall to 3,000 points, down 22% from current levels.</p><p>Interactive Brokers' Sosnick said, \"Buying on the dip doesn't work. When it does, it's usually for a short period of time.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/753339.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd5271ba4885dabd7633b23dfb3304b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","03086":"华夏纳指","IBKR":"盈透证券","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","SPY":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/753339.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2250956995","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，由于衰退风险和对二季度财报季的悲观预期，市场看空情绪加剧，交易员纷纷涌入做空美股的交易所交易基金(Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF)。最近一个交易日，ProShares三倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF(SQQQ.US)净流入2.475亿美元。这是该基金一个多月来最大的单日资金净流入，也是连续第四天资金流入，流入总额约为5.18亿美元。该基金押注做空科技股占主导地位的纳斯达克100指数。看跌的对象不仅仅是科技股。ProShares三倍做空标普500ETF(SPXU.US)的资产规模达16亿美元，自6月初以来资产规模大约翻了一番。投资者已连续12个交易日向该基金注入大量资金，在此期间累计流入8.75亿美元。SQQQ寻求的投资回报相当于纳斯达克100指数反向日表现的三倍。由于利率上升打击了科技股的增长前景，纳斯达克100指数今年以来下跌了约27%，而SQQQ则飙升了77%以上。追踪标普500指数三倍反向日表现的SPXU今年以来上涨了53%，而标普500指数下跌了19%。盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示，市场看空情绪加剧，“认为激进的交易者会将注意力转移到对冲或对下跌进行投机是明智的。”美国通胀达数十年高位、货币紧缩浪潮以及全球经济放缓的风险，这些因素都让投资者继续看空股市，尽管今年上半年全球股市蒸发了18万亿美元。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师预计，在经济衰退中，标普500指数可能跌至3000点，较当前水平下降22%。盈透证券的Sosnick表示，“逢低买入并没有起到作用。当它起作用的时候，通常是很短的一段时间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"03086":0.9,"SH":0.6,"NDX":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SQQQ":0.88,"SPY":0.9,"ESmain":0.6,"ETF":1,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"IBKR":0.82,".SPX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067937414,"gmtCreate":1652400430038,"gmtModify":1676535092335,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067937414","repostId":"1155367595","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155367595","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652337006,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155367595?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-12 14:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When can US stocks be bought again? Wall Street keeps an eye on these signals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155367595","media":"Wind万得","summary":"分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过这些信号判断：ETF的资金流出情况、 VIX波动率指数、看跌看涨期权的比率、股价回调的个股数量等。分析师表示，预期周三通胀数据将带来\"","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts said that the final stage of the sharp drop in U.S. stocks is often accompanied by a selling frenzy, and the bottom of the market can be judged by these signals: the outflow of funds from ETFs, the VIX volatility index, the ratio of put and call options, the number of individual stocks whose stock prices have pulled back, etc. Analysts said that investors in the stock and bond markets who expected Wednesday's inflation data to bring a \"watershed\" were disappointed, and the debate over whether the market was close to bottoming continued.</p><p>The April consumer price index (CPI), which is undoubtedly highly anticipated, comes amid a sell-off in stocks and bonds, and investors face a tough test in 2022 as they worry about the Fed's ability to control inflation while avoiding negative impacts on the economy.</p><p>However, published data showed inflation slowed in April, with annualized growth falling to 8.3% from 8.5% in March, but still above expectations of 8.1%.</p><p>Even more problematic for investors is the core index that stripped out volatile food and energy prices. It showed a monthly increase of 0.6% compared to Wall Street's forecast of 0.4%. Core inflation growth over the past year has also slowed to 6.2% from a 40-year high of 6.5% in March.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed lower after a round of volatile trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 327 points, or 1%, for its fifth straight session of losses. The S&P 500 index fell sharply 1.65% on Monday to close at a 13-month low. The Nasdaq, which had fallen into a bear market earlier this year, plunged 3%.</p><p>Trading on U.S. Treasury Bond also showed volatility, but there were also no signs of an inflection point, suggesting that the sell-off that pushed U.S. bond yields to a three-and-a-half-year high this month may not have pressed a rest.</p><p>John Higgins, chief market analyst at Capital Economics, said in a report, \"At least so far, the latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) shows preliminary evidence that inflation has peaked, which is not a watershed for the U.S. Treasury Bond or stock market.\"</p><p>The problem, analysts and investors say, is that while inflation may have peaked, it has not slowed fast enough to give a sense of what the Fed will do in the coming months to control price pressures. This month, the Fed raised its Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points, the largest rate hike margin in more than 20 years-typically the Fed's rate hike is 25 basis points.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said rate hike 50 basis points will be considered at the next two policy meetings, but poured cold water on speculation about the possibility of 75 basis points in rate hike. Now, some analysts expect that the Fed may change its tune and put rate hike's 75 basis point plan back into consideration.</p><p>Investors will pay close attention to economic data and the Fed's policy response in the future. Analysts said that the final stage of the sharp drop in U.S. stocks is often accompanied by a selling frenzy, and the bottoming out of the market can be judged by three signals.</p><p>First, Michael Hartnett, head of investment strategy at Bank of America, said investors have poured $1.5 trillion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the start of 2021. So far, they have only withdrawn about $35 billion. He said that if the market is to bottom out, he expects $300 billion in capital outflows.</p><p>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) tracks investor concerns based on positions in the options market. Bob Doll, chief investment officer of market research firm Crossmark Global Investments, said the volatility index recently hit 35, but not high enough to signal a bottom, and he wants to see the index close to 40. \"We have evidence that there has been some concessions in the market, but it may not be enough to say it has bottomed out.\"</p><p>Larry McDonald, founder of Bear Traps Report, said that U.S. stocks have bottomed out and need to see a sharp contraction in the number of stocks whose prices exceed the 200-day moving average. When this ratio falls in the 20% range, it implies a bottoming signal, while the most recent data is 28%. McDonald pointed out that the number of falling stocks on the NYSE was higher than the number of rising stocks (7 to 1), and the ratio of the two was one of the highest levels in the past five years, and a large number of Nasdaq stocks recently hit new lows.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When can US stocks be bought again? Wall Street keeps an eye on these signals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen can US stocks be bought again? Wall Street keeps an eye on these signals\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-12 14:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts said that the final stage of the sharp drop in U.S. stocks is often accompanied by a selling frenzy, and the bottom of the market can be judged by these signals: the outflow of funds from ETFs, the VIX volatility index, the ratio of put and call options, the number of individual stocks whose stock prices have pulled back, etc. Analysts said that investors in the stock and bond markets who expected Wednesday's inflation data to bring a \"watershed\" were disappointed, and the debate over whether the market was close to bottoming continued.</p><p>The April consumer price index (CPI), which is undoubtedly highly anticipated, comes amid a sell-off in stocks and bonds, and investors face a tough test in 2022 as they worry about the Fed's ability to control inflation while avoiding negative impacts on the economy.</p><p>However, published data showed inflation slowed in April, with annualized growth falling to 8.3% from 8.5% in March, but still above expectations of 8.1%.</p><p>Even more problematic for investors is the core index that stripped out volatile food and energy prices. It showed a monthly increase of 0.6% compared to Wall Street's forecast of 0.4%. Core inflation growth over the past year has also slowed to 6.2% from a 40-year high of 6.5% in March.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed lower after a round of volatile trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 327 points, or 1%, for its fifth straight session of losses. The S&P 500 index fell sharply 1.65% on Monday to close at a 13-month low. The Nasdaq, which had fallen into a bear market earlier this year, plunged 3%.</p><p>Trading on U.S. Treasury Bond also showed volatility, but there were also no signs of an inflection point, suggesting that the sell-off that pushed U.S. bond yields to a three-and-a-half-year high this month may not have pressed a rest.</p><p>John Higgins, chief market analyst at Capital Economics, said in a report, \"At least so far, the latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) shows preliminary evidence that inflation has peaked, which is not a watershed for the U.S. Treasury Bond or stock market.\"</p><p>The problem, analysts and investors say, is that while inflation may have peaked, it has not slowed fast enough to give a sense of what the Fed will do in the coming months to control price pressures. This month, the Fed raised its Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points, the largest rate hike margin in more than 20 years-typically the Fed's rate hike is 25 basis points.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said rate hike 50 basis points will be considered at the next two policy meetings, but poured cold water on speculation about the possibility of 75 basis points in rate hike. Now, some analysts expect that the Fed may change its tune and put rate hike's 75 basis point plan back into consideration.</p><p>Investors will pay close attention to economic data and the Fed's policy response in the future. Analysts said that the final stage of the sharp drop in U.S. stocks is often accompanied by a selling frenzy, and the bottoming out of the market can be judged by three signals.</p><p>First, Michael Hartnett, head of investment strategy at Bank of America, said investors have poured $1.5 trillion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the start of 2021. So far, they have only withdrawn about $35 billion. He said that if the market is to bottom out, he expects $300 billion in capital outflows.</p><p>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) tracks investor concerns based on positions in the options market. Bob Doll, chief investment officer of market research firm Crossmark Global Investments, said the volatility index recently hit 35, but not high enough to signal a bottom, and he wants to see the index close to 40. \"We have evidence that there has been some concessions in the market, but it may not be enough to say it has bottomed out.\"</p><p>Larry McDonald, founder of Bear Traps Report, said that U.S. stocks have bottomed out and need to see a sharp contraction in the number of stocks whose prices exceed the 200-day moving average. When this ratio falls in the 20% range, it implies a bottoming signal, while the most recent data is 28%. McDonald pointed out that the number of falling stocks on the NYSE was higher than the number of rising stocks (7 to 1), and the ratio of the two was one of the highest levels in the past five years, and a large number of Nasdaq stocks recently hit new lows.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155367595","content_text":"分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过这些信号判断：ETF的资金流出情况、 VIX波动率指数、看跌看涨期权的比率、股价回调的个股数量等。分析师表示，预期周三通胀数据将带来\"分水岭\"的股市和债市投资者感到失望，令市场是否接近触底的争论仍在继续。4月份消费者价格指数(CPI)无疑备受期待，数据出炉之际，股市和债市出现抛售，投资者在2022年面临严峻考验，因为他们担心美联储是否有能力在控制通胀的同时避免对经济造成负面影响。然而，公布的数据显示，4月通货膨胀有所放缓，年化增速从3月份的8.5%降至8.3%，但仍高于8.1%的预期。对投资者来说，更有问题的是剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心指数。它显示了0.6%的月度增长，而华尔街的预测为0.4%。过去一年的核心通胀率增幅也从3月份的40年高点6.5%放缓至6.2%。经过一轮震荡交易后，美股收盘走低。道琼斯工业指数下跌约327点，跌幅1%，为连续第五个交易日下跌。标普500指数周一大幅下跌1.65%，收于13个月低点。今年早些时候曾跌入熊市的纳斯达克指数暴跌3%。美国国债的交易也出现了波动，但同样没有出现拐点的迹象，表明本月将美债收益率推高至三年半高点的抛售行为可能还未按下休止符。Capital Economics首席市场分析师John Higgins在报告中称，“至少到目前为止，最新公布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)显示通胀见顶的初步证据，对美国国债或股市来说还不是一个分水岭。”分析师和投资者说，问题在于，尽管通胀可能已经见顶，但其放缓速度不足以让人明白，美联储在未来几个月将采取什么措施来控制物价压力。本月，美联储将联邦基金利率上调50个基点，这是20多年来最大的加息幅度——通常美联储的加息幅度为25个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，未来两次政策会议将考虑加息50个基点，但对加息75个基点可能性的猜测泼了冷水。现在，一些分析人士预计，美联储可能会改变态度，让加息75个基点的计划重新纳入考虑范围。投资者未来密切关注经济数据及美联储政策反应。分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过三个信号判断。首先，美国银行(Bank of America)投资策略主管迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)表示，自2021年初以来，投资者向共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)投入了1.5万亿美元。到目前为止，他们只提取了大约350亿美元。他表示，如果市场要见底，他预期要出现3000亿美元的资金流出。芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)的波动率指数(VIX指数)根据期权市场的仓位跟踪投资者的担忧情绪。市场研究公司Crossmark Global Investments首席投资长多尔(Bob Doll)说，波动率指数最近触及35，但还没有高到足以预示底部，他希望看到该指数接近40的位置。“我们有证据表明，市场出现了一些让步，但可能还不足以说它已经触底。”Bear Traps Report创始人拉里·麦克唐纳表示，美股见底，需要看到价格超过200日移动均线的股票数量急剧收缩。当这一比率落在20%的范围内，这意味着见底信号，而最近的数据是28%。麦克唐纳指出，纽交所股票下跌家数高于上涨家数(7比1)，两者比例为过去5年最高水平之一，纳斯达克的大量股票最近创下新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038063731,"gmtCreate":1646699143448,"gmtModify":1676534151684,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038063731","repostId":"1198510306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198510306","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646696733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198510306?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-08 07:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! Energy prices soar, European stocks enter bears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198510306","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%，纳指跌超3%跌入熊市；②商品期货再度大涨，伦镍一度暴涨近80%；③第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果，停火磋商将继续进行；④、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P falling nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq falling more than 3% and falling into a bear market; ② Commodity futures rose sharply again, and Lunni once soared by nearly 80%; ③ The third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations has no substantive results, and ceasefire negotiations will continue; ④. The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year. Overseas Market</p><p>1. Closing: Conflict situations and inflation concerns put pressure on U.S. stocks to close lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 800 points</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P falling nearly 3%, the biggest drop in more than a year, the Dow falling nearly 800 points, and the Nasdaq falling more than 3%, falling into a bear market, all hitting one-year lows. The Dow fell 2.37%, the Nasdaq fell 3.62%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.95%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly closed lower on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Fell nearly 17%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 8%</p><p>Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday, Mavericks Electric fell nearly 17%, and the financial report showed that Q4 net profit fell 18% year-on-year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent theory</a>Fell more than 17%, Bilibili fell more than 8%; New energy vehicle stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars fell more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">Solar Impulse</a>Up more than 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">Happy Auto</a>It rose more than 21%, and Together Education rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Youdao rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">WIMI holography</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Up more than 3%.</p><p>3. The United States may boycott Russian crude oil. U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 3.2%</p><p>Crude oil futures prices were supported as countries such as the United States and Britain considered banning imports of Russian oil. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) for April delivery rose $3.72, or 3.2%, to settle at $119.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On a front-month contract basis, this is the highest close since September 2008, according to FactSet data. WTI crude oil rose by 26.30% last week.</p><p>4. Brent was once close to $140, the possibility of a Russian oil embargo raised crisis concerns</p><p>Oil prices experienced their largest one-day volatility on record, soaring to nearly $140 earlier before falling back as the United States said it was considering banning imports of Russian crude oil, exacerbating the possibility of tight supply.</p><p>Brent oil prices fell back to around $121. Such oil price levels are exacerbating fears of a major inflationary shock to the global economy. The Biden administration is considering whether to ban Russian oil imports at least initially without the involvement of European allies, people familiar with the matter said. Germany said it had no plans to suspend Russian energy imports, adding to market volatility.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed up 1.5% on Monday and once broke through the $2,000 mark during the session</p><p>Gold futures closed higher on Monday and posted their highest close since August 2020. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again, raising risk aversion and pushing gold futures prices to break through the $2,000 per ounce mark on Monday.</p><p>The price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $29.30, or 1.5%, to close at $1,995.90 an ounce, and once rose to $2,007.50 an ounce during the session.</p><p>6. European stocks fall into bear market amid surging energy prices</p><p>European stocks fell to their lowest levels in a year, with the DAX and eurozone STOXX 50 closing in a bear market as soaring oil prices raised fears that high inflation would hurt economic growth.</p><p>The DAX closed down 2% to its lowest level since November 2020, with a cumulative decline of 21% from a record high in January. The eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 1.2%, also closing in a bear market.</p><p>7. European natural gas prices soared 79%, market chaos pushed prices to a new record</p><p>Europe's benchmark natural gas futures soared 79% to the equivalent of more than $600 a barrel of crude oil, and the market experienced the most chaotic trading situation ever. The surge could trigger a massive margin call, prompting companies to buy exchange contracts to avoid paying cash, which in turn causes futures prices to spike further.</p><p>Related to the situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations has no substantive results and ceasefire negotiations will continue</p><p>After the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, a member of the Ukrainian delegation said that consultations with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities will continue, and there are still no substantive results on related issues so far. Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian President's Office, also said that the third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine failed to achieve results that could substantially improve the situation.</p><p>Mezinsky, head of the Russian delegation, said that Russia hopes that the humanitarian corridor will start operating tomorrow, and Ukraine has guaranteed this. Russia's expected goal of talks with Ukraine in Brest Oblast has not been achieved.</p><p>2. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has appeared on food shelves in many countries, and worries about the global food crisis have risen</p><p>The impact of Russia's military operation in Ukraine on global crop markets is already felt on store shelves.</p><p>Amid concerns about soaring sunflower oil prices, there was a rush to buy during the weekend in Turkey, and a video of people vying for lower-priced sunflower oil in a store caused heated discussion; Some supermarket chain websites are out of stock</p><p>In Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, the price of some unsubsidized bread has risen sharply in the past week due to higher costs; In the greater Cairo area, a pack of five-slice flour bread costs about 7.5 Egyptian pounds ($0.48), compared with 5 Egyptian pounds a week ago.</p><p>3. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia subverts the global shipping industry and shipping rates may increase by two to three times</p><p>The war between Ukraine and Russia has the potential to upend the global shipping industry recovering from the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. Maersk (AMKBY.US) and Mediterranean Shipping, the largest ocean container groups, have suspended business bookings to and from Russia as sanctions begin to have an impact on trade.</p><p>Glenn Kopke of FourKites, a supply chain consulting firm, said that the shipping rate may even increase by two or three times from the current price of $10,000 per 40-foot container.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year</p><p>The European Commission is charting a path to ending its dependence on Russian gas, which could reduce import demand by nearly 80% this year, according to two officials familiar with the matter. In an effort to weaken the Kremlin's bargaining chips, the European Commission revised its energy strategy after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched military operations against Ukraine. The plan, due to be presented on Tuesday, includes finding new sources of natural gas and improving energy efficiency, with the goal of weaning off Russia well before 2030, an official said.</p><p>2. Members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia</p><p>Four top leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives issued a statement saying that they have reached an agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia, saying that they will jointly draft a bill to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and authorize the Biden administration to raise tariffs for both countries.</p><p>3. Russian gold was shut out of the London market and the certification qualifications of all gold smelters were suspended</p><p>The London Bullion Market Association said on Monday that it suspended all six Russian gold and silver smelting enterprises as fine deliverers after the United States, European Union and Britain imposed sanctions on Russia. Products manufactured by these businesses prior to the suspension of eligibility will still be accepted.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister says Britain will \"gradually\" get rid of its dependence on Russian oil and natural gas</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that in the face of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Britain will \"gradually\" get rid of its dependence on Russian oil and gas. He also called on Western countries to work together to ensure energy alternatives.</p><p>After meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte that day, Johnson said that the UK will formulate a new energy supply strategy in the next few days, and pointed out that the UK is considering using more of its own fossil fuels. But he also stressed that Britain has not given up its commitment to reduce carbon emissions.</p><p>5. The issue of food is imminent. The EU may consider relaxing the import ban on genetically modified grains and herbicide-related crops</p><p>With the world's major crude oil and grain producing areas involved in turmoil, the European Union, which adheres to high standards on the import of rations, has also begun to worry about the problem of food.</p><p>The European Union may consider temporarily lifting the ban on the import of genetically modified grains from the United States and South America to help farmers get through this chaotic time, according to the media quoted Spanish Minister of Agriculture Luis Planas on Monday. Spain and France have also proposed exemptions for use of herbicides<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Imports, mainly to increase stocks and find alternative supply channels for important grains, mainly corn, which are also the main sources of animal feed.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1133636608\" target=\"_blank\">Uber raises first-quarter results forecast: consumers are eager to get back to travel</a></p><p>Uber reportedly raised its first-quarter 2022 performance forecast as travel demand affected by the epidemic rebounded faster than expected. In premarket trading on March 7, Uber's stock price rose about 2% at one point. Shares of rival Lyft, meanwhile, also rose more than 2%.</p><p>Uber said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it now expects adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the first quarter of this year to be between US $130 million and US $150 million, higher than the previous expectation of between US $100 million and US $130 million.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1185303476\" target=\"_blank\">Intel's autonomous driving business unit Mobileye secretly files IPO application</a></p><p>According to reports, Intel Corporation announced on March 7 that Mobileye, its self-driving car business unit, has secretly submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to initially public offering (IPO) Mobileye's new shares. At present, the number and price of new shares have not yet been determined. The IPO date will take place after the SEC completes the evaluation process, and the specific time will also depend on market and other conditions.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217544945\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla bulls: Berlin's \"Gigafactory\" approved, the stock's biggest suspense cleared</a></p><p>Dan Ives, a well-known Tesla bull and an analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said in a report to investors on March 6 that the approval of production at the Berlin \"Gigafactory\" is crucial to Tesla.</p><p>Ives wrote, \"Tesla stock'maximum suspense 'has been removed after German authorities said Tesla could start production at its new factory in Berlin.\"</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217448301\" target=\"_blank\">Wedbush: Spring conference is about to be held, giving Apple an \"outperform\" rating</a></p><p>Apple will hold the 2022 Spring Conference at 10 a.m. local time on March 8 (2 a.m. Beijing time on March 9). It is widely expected to launch a new iPhone SE with 5G capabilities, as well as new iPad Air and Mac using its M-series chips. Wedbush Securities believes that all of the above products will become \"popular products\" for Apple. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives gave Apple an \"outperform\" rating and a target price of $200.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217415574\" target=\"_blank\">Coal giant Peabody once plummeted more than 24% and was forced to add large margins when coal prices soared</a></p><p>On Monday, March 7, Peabody Energy, the world's largest private coal company, once plummeted by more than 24% in the U.S. stock market, falling sharply from the nearly three-year high since mid-May 2019 set last Friday, nearly erasing all gains in the month.</p><p>This is mainly due to the company's announcement stating that, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A financing arrangement was reached in which the latter provided a $150 million unsecured multiple-drawable credit facility to support the \"potential liquidity needs in the near term\" of Peabody, whose coal mines are mainly located in the United States and Australia.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217541424\" target=\"_blank\">Refuse to follow suit! Uniqlo founder says he will continue to operate business in Russia</a></p><p>After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, while Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, large European and American companies also withdrew from the country. Although waves of companies have chosen to withdraw from the Russian market, some companies have refused to follow suit and insisted on continuing to operate their businesses in Russia.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217344063\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett talks about increasing holdings of Occidental Petroleum: Invested $4.5 billion in five days, buy as much as you can</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett revealed his recent big increase in holdings in an interview Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The story of the company's shares, saying that he spent $4.5 billion on last Friday's trading day and bought 91.2 million shares, which are worth more than $5 billion based on the current stock price.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! Energy prices soar, European stocks enter bears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! Energy prices soar, European stocks enter bears\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-08 07:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary: ① U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P falling nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq falling more than 3% and falling into a bear market; ② Commodity futures rose sharply again, and Lunni once soared by nearly 80%; ③ The third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations has no substantive results, and ceasefire negotiations will continue; ④. The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year. Overseas Market</p><p>1. Closing: Conflict situations and inflation concerns put pressure on U.S. stocks to close lower, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 800 points</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P falling nearly 3%, the biggest drop in more than a year, the Dow falling nearly 800 points, and the Nasdaq falling more than 3%, falling into a bear market, all hitting one-year lows. The Dow fell 2.37%, the Nasdaq fell 3.62%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.95%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly closed lower on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Fell nearly 17%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 8%</p><p>Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday, Mavericks Electric fell nearly 17%, and the financial report showed that Q4 net profit fell 18% year-on-year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent theory</a>Fell more than 17%, Bilibili fell more than 8%; New energy vehicle stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng vehicles</a>Fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Fell more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars fell more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">Solar Impulse</a>Up more than 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">Happy Auto</a>It rose more than 21%, and Together Education rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Youdao rose more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">WIMI holography</a>Up more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>Rose more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">High Road</a>Up more than 3%.</p><p>3. The United States may boycott Russian crude oil. U.S. WTI crude oil closed up 3.2%</p><p>Crude oil futures prices were supported as countries such as the United States and Britain considered banning imports of Russian oil. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) for April delivery rose $3.72, or 3.2%, to settle at $119.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On a front-month contract basis, this is the highest close since September 2008, according to FactSet data. WTI crude oil rose by 26.30% last week.</p><p>4. Brent was once close to $140, the possibility of a Russian oil embargo raised crisis concerns</p><p>Oil prices experienced their largest one-day volatility on record, soaring to nearly $140 earlier before falling back as the United States said it was considering banning imports of Russian crude oil, exacerbating the possibility of tight supply.</p><p>Brent oil prices fell back to around $121. Such oil price levels are exacerbating fears of a major inflationary shock to the global economy. The Biden administration is considering whether to ban Russian oil imports at least initially without the involvement of European allies, people familiar with the matter said. Germany said it had no plans to suspend Russian energy imports, adding to market volatility.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed up 1.5% on Monday and once broke through the $2,000 mark during the session</p><p>Gold futures closed higher on Monday and posted their highest close since August 2020. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again, raising risk aversion and pushing gold futures prices to break through the $2,000 per ounce mark on Monday.</p><p>The price of gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $29.30, or 1.5%, to close at $1,995.90 an ounce, and once rose to $2,007.50 an ounce during the session.</p><p>6. European stocks fall into bear market amid surging energy prices</p><p>European stocks fell to their lowest levels in a year, with the DAX and eurozone STOXX 50 closing in a bear market as soaring oil prices raised fears that high inflation would hurt economic growth.</p><p>The DAX closed down 2% to its lowest level since November 2020, with a cumulative decline of 21% from a record high in January. The eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 1.2%, also closing in a bear market.</p><p>7. European natural gas prices soared 79%, market chaos pushed prices to a new record</p><p>Europe's benchmark natural gas futures soared 79% to the equivalent of more than $600 a barrel of crude oil, and the market experienced the most chaotic trading situation ever. The surge could trigger a massive margin call, prompting companies to buy exchange contracts to avoid paying cash, which in turn causes futures prices to spike further.</p><p>Related to the situation between Russia and Ukraine</p><p>1. The third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations has no substantive results and ceasefire negotiations will continue</p><p>After the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, a member of the Ukrainian delegation said that consultations with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities will continue, and there are still no substantive results on related issues so far. Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian President's Office, also said that the third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine failed to achieve results that could substantially improve the situation.</p><p>Mezinsky, head of the Russian delegation, said that Russia hopes that the humanitarian corridor will start operating tomorrow, and Ukraine has guaranteed this. Russia's expected goal of talks with Ukraine in Brest Oblast has not been achieved.</p><p>2. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has appeared on food shelves in many countries, and worries about the global food crisis have risen</p><p>The impact of Russia's military operation in Ukraine on global crop markets is already felt on store shelves.</p><p>Amid concerns about soaring sunflower oil prices, there was a rush to buy during the weekend in Turkey, and a video of people vying for lower-priced sunflower oil in a store caused heated discussion; Some supermarket chain websites are out of stock</p><p>In Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, the price of some unsubsidized bread has risen sharply in the past week due to higher costs; In the greater Cairo area, a pack of five-slice flour bread costs about 7.5 Egyptian pounds ($0.48), compared with 5 Egyptian pounds a week ago.</p><p>3. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia subverts the global shipping industry and shipping rates may increase by two to three times</p><p>The war between Ukraine and Russia has the potential to upend the global shipping industry recovering from the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. Maersk (AMKBY.US) and Mediterranean Shipping, the largest ocean container groups, have suspended business bookings to and from Russia as sanctions begin to have an impact on trade.</p><p>Glenn Kopke of FourKites, a supply chain consulting firm, said that the shipping rate may even increase by two or three times from the current price of $10,000 per 40-foot container.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year</p><p>The European Commission is charting a path to ending its dependence on Russian gas, which could reduce import demand by nearly 80% this year, according to two officials familiar with the matter. In an effort to weaken the Kremlin's bargaining chips, the European Commission revised its energy strategy after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched military operations against Ukraine. The plan, due to be presented on Tuesday, includes finding new sources of natural gas and improving energy efficiency, with the goal of weaning off Russia well before 2030, an official said.</p><p>2. Members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia</p><p>Four top leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives issued a statement saying that they have reached an agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia, saying that they will jointly draft a bill to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and authorize the Biden administration to raise tariffs for both countries.</p><p>3. Russian gold was shut out of the London market and the certification qualifications of all gold smelters were suspended</p><p>The London Bullion Market Association said on Monday that it suspended all six Russian gold and silver smelting enterprises as fine deliverers after the United States, European Union and Britain imposed sanctions on Russia. Products manufactured by these businesses prior to the suspension of eligibility will still be accepted.</p><p>4. British Prime Minister says Britain will \"gradually\" get rid of its dependence on Russian oil and natural gas</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that in the face of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Britain will \"gradually\" get rid of its dependence on Russian oil and gas. He also called on Western countries to work together to ensure energy alternatives.</p><p>After meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte that day, Johnson said that the UK will formulate a new energy supply strategy in the next few days, and pointed out that the UK is considering using more of its own fossil fuels. But he also stressed that Britain has not given up its commitment to reduce carbon emissions.</p><p>5. The issue of food is imminent. The EU may consider relaxing the import ban on genetically modified grains and herbicide-related crops</p><p>With the world's major crude oil and grain producing areas involved in turmoil, the European Union, which adheres to high standards on the import of rations, has also begun to worry about the problem of food.</p><p>The European Union may consider temporarily lifting the ban on the import of genetically modified grains from the United States and South America to help farmers get through this chaotic time, according to the media quoted Spanish Minister of Agriculture Luis Planas on Monday. Spain and France have also proposed exemptions for use of herbicides<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural products</a>Imports, mainly to increase stocks and find alternative supply channels for important grains, mainly corn, which are also the main sources of animal feed.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1133636608\" target=\"_blank\">Uber raises first-quarter results forecast: consumers are eager to get back to travel</a></p><p>Uber reportedly raised its first-quarter 2022 performance forecast as travel demand affected by the epidemic rebounded faster than expected. In premarket trading on March 7, Uber's stock price rose about 2% at one point. Shares of rival Lyft, meanwhile, also rose more than 2%.</p><p>Uber said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it now expects adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in the first quarter of this year to be between US $130 million and US $150 million, higher than the previous expectation of between US $100 million and US $130 million.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1185303476\" target=\"_blank\">Intel's autonomous driving business unit Mobileye secretly files IPO application</a></p><p>According to reports, Intel Corporation announced on March 7 that Mobileye, its self-driving car business unit, has secretly submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and plans to initially public offering (IPO) Mobileye's new shares. At present, the number and price of new shares have not yet been determined. The IPO date will take place after the SEC completes the evaluation process, and the specific time will also depend on market and other conditions.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217544945\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla bulls: Berlin's \"Gigafactory\" approved, the stock's biggest suspense cleared</a></p><p>Dan Ives, a well-known Tesla bull and an analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said in a report to investors on March 6 that the approval of production at the Berlin \"Gigafactory\" is crucial to Tesla.</p><p>Ives wrote, \"Tesla stock'maximum suspense 'has been removed after German authorities said Tesla could start production at its new factory in Berlin.\"</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217448301\" target=\"_blank\">Wedbush: Spring conference is about to be held, giving Apple an \"outperform\" rating</a></p><p>Apple will hold the 2022 Spring Conference at 10 a.m. local time on March 8 (2 a.m. Beijing time on March 9). It is widely expected to launch a new iPhone SE with 5G capabilities, as well as new iPad Air and Mac using its M-series chips. Wedbush Securities believes that all of the above products will become \"popular products\" for Apple. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives gave Apple an \"outperform\" rating and a target price of $200.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217415574\" target=\"_blank\">Coal giant Peabody once plummeted more than 24% and was forced to add large margins when coal prices soared</a></p><p>On Monday, March 7, Peabody Energy, the world's largest private coal company, once plummeted by more than 24% in the U.S. stock market, falling sharply from the nearly three-year high since mid-May 2019 set last Friday, nearly erasing all gains in the month.</p><p>This is mainly due to the company's announcement stating that, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A financing arrangement was reached in which the latter provided a $150 million unsecured multiple-drawable credit facility to support the \"potential liquidity needs in the near term\" of Peabody, whose coal mines are mainly located in the United States and Australia.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217541424\" target=\"_blank\">Refuse to follow suit! Uniqlo founder says he will continue to operate business in Russia</a></p><p>After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, while Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, large European and American companies also withdrew from the country. Although waves of companies have chosen to withdraw from the Russian market, some companies have refused to follow suit and insisted on continuing to operate their businesses in Russia.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217344063\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett talks about increasing holdings of Occidental Petroleum: Invested $4.5 billion in five days, buy as much as you can</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett revealed his recent big increase in holdings in an interview Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>The story of the company's shares, saying that he spent $4.5 billion on last Friday's trading day and bought 91.2 million shares, which are worth more than $5 billion based on the current stock price.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198510306","content_text":"摘要：①美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%，纳指跌超3%跌入熊市；②商品期货再度大涨，伦镍一度暴涨近80%；③第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果，停火磋商将继续进行；④、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近80%。海外市场1、收盘：冲突局势与通胀忧虑施压 美股收跌道指下挫800点美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%创逾一年最大跌幅，道指跌近800点，纳指跌超3%、跌入熊市，均创一年新低。道指跌2.37%，纳指跌3.62%，标普500指数跌2.95%。2、热门中概股周一收盘大多走低 小牛电动跌近17% 哔哩哔哩跌超8%热门中概股周一收盘大多走低，小牛电动跌近17%，财报显示Q4净利润同比下降18%；流利说跌超17%，哔哩哔哩跌超8%；新能源汽车股走低，小鹏汽车跌近8%，理想汽车跌超5%，蔚来汽车跌超2%。阳光动力涨超28%，开心汽车涨超21%，一起教育涨超10%，网易有道涨超8%，微美全息涨超6%，好未来涨超4%，高途涨超3%。3、美或抵制俄国原油 美国WTI原油收高3.2%由于美英等国考虑禁止进口俄罗斯石油，原油期货价格得到支撑。纽约商品交易所4月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨3.72美元，涨幅为3.2%，收于每桶119.40美元。FactSet数据显示，按照近月合约计算，这是自2008年9月以来的最高收盘价。上周WTI原油累计上涨26.30%。4、布伦特一度接近140美元 俄罗斯石油禁运的可能性引发危机担忧石油价格创有史以来最大单日波幅，早前一度飙升至近140美元的水平，之后回落，因美国表示正在考虑禁止进口俄罗斯原油，加剧了供应紧张的可能性。布伦特油价回落至121美元左右。这样的油价水平正在加剧全球经济遭遇重大通胀冲击的担忧。知情人士称，拜登政府正在考虑至少在初期是否在欧洲盟友不参与的情况下禁止进口俄罗斯石油。德国表示，没有暂停进口俄罗斯能源的计划，加剧了市场的波动。5、黄金期货周一收高1.5% 盘中一度突破2000美元关口黄金期货周一收高并创2020年8月以来的最高收盘价。俄乌冲突再度升级，令避险情绪高涨，推动周一黄金期货价格一度突破每盎司2000美元关口。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格上涨29.30美元，涨幅1.5%，收于每盎司1995.90美元，盘中一度上涨至每盎司2007.50美元。6、欧洲股市在能源价格飙升之际跌入熊市欧洲股市跌至一年来的最低水平，DAX指数和欧元区斯托克50指数收盘进入熊市，因为油价飙升引发了高通胀将损伤经济增长的担忧。DAX指数收盘下跌2％，至2020年11月以来的最低水平，从1月份的创纪录高位累计下跌21％。欧元区斯托克50指数收盘下跌1.2％，也收于熊市。7、欧洲天然气价格飙升79% 市场一片混乱推动价格刷新纪录欧洲基准天然气期货飙升79%，达到相当于每桶原油超过600美元，市场出现了有史以来最为混乱的交易状况。飙升可能引发大规模的追加保证金，促使企业购买交易所合约以避免支付现金，进而导致期货价格进一步飙升。俄乌局势相关1、第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果 停火磋商将继续进行第三轮俄乌谈判结束后，乌克兰代表团的一名成员表示，与俄罗斯关于停火和停止敌对行动的磋商将继续进行，相关问题到目前仍没有实质性结果。乌克兰总统办公室顾问波多利亚克也表示，俄乌第三轮会谈没取得能实质改善局势的结果。俄罗斯代表团团长梅津斯基则表示，俄方希望人道主义走廊从明天开始运行，乌克兰方面对此给予了保证。俄罗斯对与乌克兰在布列斯特州会谈的预期目标未能实现。2、俄乌战争的影响已在多国食品货架上显现 全球粮食危机忧虑升温俄罗斯在乌克兰开展军事行动给全球农作物市场带来的冲击已在商店货架上显现。由于担心葵花籽油价格飙升，土耳其周末期间出现抢购，民众在一家商店争抢较低价葵花籽油的视频引起热议；部分连锁超市网站缺货在全球最大的小麦进口国埃及，由于成本走高，过去一周部分未受补贴的面包价格大幅上涨；在大开罗地区，一包五片面饼的售价约为7.5埃及镑（0.48美元），而一周前为5埃及镑。3、乌俄冲突颠覆全球航运业 海运费率或将上涨两至三倍乌俄战争有可能颠覆正从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏的全球航运业。随着制裁开始对贸易产生影响，最大的海运集装箱集团马士基（AMKBY.US）和Mediterranean Shipping已经暂停了往返俄罗斯的业务预订。供应链咨询公司FourKites的格伦•克普克表示，海运费率甚至可能从目前每40英尺集装箱1万美元的价格上涨两到三倍。国际宏观1、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近80%据两位知情官员透露，欧盟委员会正在规划结束对俄罗斯天然气依赖的路径，这可能导致今年进口需求减少近80%。为削弱克里姆林宫方面的筹码，欧盟委员会在俄罗斯总统普京发动对乌克兰的军事行动后修改能源战略。一位官员表示，这份计划将于周二提交，内容包括寻找新的天然气来源和提高能源效率，目标是远早于2030年摆脱对俄罗斯的依赖。2、美国参众两院议员就制裁俄罗斯的法案大纲达成协议美国参议院和众议院四位高层领导人发表声明，已就制裁俄罗斯的法案大纲达成协议，表示将共同起草法案，暂停与俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的正常贸易关系，并授权拜登政府提高面向两国的关税。3、俄罗斯黄金被伦敦市场拒之门外 所有黄金冶炼商的认证资格均被暂停伦敦金银市场协会周一表示，在美国、欧盟和英国对俄罗斯实施制裁后，该协会暂停了所有六家俄罗斯金银冶炼企业的优良交货商资格。这些企业在资格暂停之前生产的产品仍将被接受。4、英首相表示英国将“逐步”摆脱对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊表示，面对俄乌两国之间的紧张局势，英国将要“逐步”摆脱对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖。他同时呼吁西方各国要共同努力确保能源替代方案。约翰逊当天在与加拿大总理特鲁多和荷兰首相吕特会晤之后表示，英国将在未来几天制定新的能源供应战略，并指出英国正在考虑使用更多自己的化石燃料。但他同时强调，英国并没有放弃减少碳排放的承诺。5、吃饭问题迫在眉睫 欧盟或考虑放宽转基因谷物和涉除草剂作物进口禁令随着全球主要原油和粮食产地卷入动荡，在口粮进口问题上坚持高标准的欧盟也开始担忧起吃饭问题。据媒体周一援引西班牙农业大臣路易斯·普拉纳斯(Luis Planas)称，欧盟可能会考虑临时取消从美国和南美进口转基因谷物的禁令，帮助农民度过眼下这段混乱的时光。西班牙和法国也已经提议豁免使用过除草剂的农产品进口，主要是为了增加库存以及寻找以玉米为主的重要谷物替代供应渠道，这些产品也是动物饲料的主要来源。公司新闻1、Uber调高第一季度业绩预期：消费者渴望重新出行据报道，Uber上调了2022年第一季度业绩预期，原因是疫情影响的出行需求的反弹速度快于预期。3月7日盘前交易中，Uber股价一度上涨约 2%。与此同时，竞争对手Lyft的股价也上涨了2%以上。Uber在提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件中称，现预计，今年第一季度调整后的EBITDA（息税折旧及摊销前利润） 将在1.3亿美元至1.5亿美元之间，高于之前预期的1亿美元至1.3亿美元之间。2、英特尔自动驾驶业务部门Mobileye秘密提交IPO申请据报道，英特尔公司3月7日宣布，旗下自动驾驶汽车业务部门Mobileye已向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）秘密提交Form S-1注册声明草案，拟首次公开发行（IPO）Mobileye新股。目前，新股发售数量和价格尚未确定。IPO日期将在SEC完成评估程序后进行，具体时间还要取决于市场和其他条件。3、特斯拉大多头：柏林“超级工厂”获批 该股最大悬念被清除特斯拉知名大多头、投行Wedbush分析师Dan Ives于3月6日在给投资者的一份报告中表示，柏林“超级工厂”获批生产对特斯拉来说至关重要。Ives写道，“在德国当局表示特斯拉可以在柏林的新工厂开始生产后，特斯拉股票‘最大悬念’已经被消除。”4、Wedbush：春季发布会即将召开 予苹果“跑赢大盘”评级苹果将于当地时间3月8日上午10点（北京时间3月9日凌晨2点）举办2022年春季发布会。市场普遍预计它将推出具有5G功能的新款iPhone SE，以及使用其M系列芯片的新iPad Air和Mac。Wedbush Securities认为，以上所有产品将成为苹果的“受欢迎产品”。Wedbush分析师Dan Ives予苹果“跑赢大盘”评级，目标价为200美元。5、煤炭巨头皮博迪一度暴跌超24%，被迫在煤价飙升时追加大额保证金3月7日周一，全球最大的私营煤炭公司皮博迪能源在美股市场一度暴跌超24%，从上周五所创的2019年5月中旬以来近三年高位大幅回落，接近抹去月内全部涨幅。这主要是由于公司发布公告称，与高盛达成一项融资安排，后者提供1.5亿美元的无担保可多次提取信贷额度，以支持煤矿主要位于美国和澳大利亚的皮博迪公司“近期内潜在的流动性需求”。6、拒绝跟风！优衣库创始人称将继续在俄经营业务俄乌冲突升级以后，西方国家对俄罗斯采取制裁措施的同时，欧美大型企业也纷纷从该国撤离。尽管一波又一波的公司选择退出俄罗斯市场，但也有公司拒绝跟风，坚持继续运营在俄罗斯的业务。7、巴菲特谈增持西方石油：五天投了45亿美元，能买多少买多少伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长沃伦-巴菲特在周一的一次采访中披露了他最近大手笔增持西方石油公司股份的经过，称他在上周五个交易日内豪掷45亿美元，买入了9120万股，按当前股价计算价值超过了50亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,"03086":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001433669,"gmtCreate":1641297495776,"gmtModify":1676533594118,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/METX\">$美联教育科技(METX)$</a>wake up pls&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/METX\">$美联教育科技(METX)$</a>wake up pls&nbsp;","text":"$美联教育科技(METX)$wake up pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001433669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533861,"gmtCreate":1678019346453,"gmtModify":1678019350505,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533861","repostId":"1154440961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154440961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677989017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154440961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 12:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lei Jun's new story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154440961","media":"全天候科技","summary":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of ecological chain,</b></b><b>Instead</b><b><b>Tell the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>In the past few years, Xiaomi has built an ecological chain map, deployed in many smart device fields, and gradually allowed Mijia terminal smart products to penetrate into various IoT markets.</p><p>After the smartphone market entered the second half, Lei Jun no longer focused on the story of the ecological chain, but told the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun told the story of \"supply chain\" in the \"two sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, a representative of the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, one of which was about promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested encouraging and supporting the science and technology industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing, and the fundraising scale has increased from more than 6 billion last year to more than 9 billion yuan. The investment objectives of this fund focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream fields.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about the supply chain has made phased progress. Sinolink Securities's previous statistics show that as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of smart cars.</p><p>For a long time, \"cost performance\" has been the deepest label on Xiaomi. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for \"insufficient self-developed technical capabilities\". The investment in upstream core supply chain companies or technology companies shows Xiaomi's determination to strengthen its voice in the supply chain.</p><p>The opening of the supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>\"Voice\" for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>Since its debut in August last year, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from recent developments from Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs on the track of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>Among the suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that my country has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of bionic humanoid robots, but it still faces challenges such as the need to improve the performance of core components, insufficient application demand, and lack of large-scale mass production. Challenges such as capacity, imperfect application ecology and supporting support system.</p><p>To this end, he suggested: encouraging and supporting the science and technology industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry; Support complete machine enterprises to take the lead in creating a national innovation consortium and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecosystem of bionic humanoid robots and accelerate the cultivation of scene applications.</p><p>In June last year, under the effect of Musk's \"will launch humanoid robots\", concepts related to bionic humanoid robots became hot concepts in the domestic capital market, and this segmented track has also become the hottest track in the robotics industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi released the prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"Tieda\") at Lei Jun's annual speech before Tesla, and this enthusiasm also reached its peak.</p><p>The CyberOne launched by Xiaomi is not a PPT or a prop, but a prototype that can be taken out and interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per unit, and it is not yet possible to achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that Xiaomi was still in the first stage of its infancy with the highest degree of technology integration and difficulty.</p><p>Turning its attention abroad, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime released by Tesla on AI Day last year also did not reach the previously claimed level. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk, but I think it will walk in a few weeks.\"</p><p>Musk has previously released bold statements: the target price of Optimus Prime Optimus may be less than US $20,000, and more than one million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed the recent progress of Optimus Optimus at Tesla Investor Day: \"It doesn't work properly, but things are getting better.\"</p><p>Tesla is still increasing its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology found that Tesla China recently released job recruitment information in the direction of robotics, including automation control engineer (robot), electrical design engineer-robot development and application direction.</p><p>The prospects given by institutions are tempting. Global market research organization Marketsandmarkets predicts that the global humanoid robot market will increase from US $1.5 billion in 2022 to US $17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become another entrance after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>But it is undeniable that the bionic humanoid robot track is a track that requires long-term investment.</p><p>Domestically, there are still many realities that have to be solved in front of this track, such as core components, underlying operating systems and chips of robots, system design software, etc.</p><p><b>Tens of billions of funds focus on the integrated circuit industry chain</b></p><p>After raising more than 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, the \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2, Kingsoft announced that the company's subsidiaries Wuhan Kingsoft, Xiaomi Beijing, Xiaomi Wuhan, etc., entered into partnership agreements with other investors regarding the establishment of equity investment funds in integrated circuit-related fields, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Lei Jun's Xiaomi and Jinshan, the fund LP also includes Beijing Guidance Fund and Yizhuang State Investment, Tianjin Haichuang, Tianjin State-owned Beijing, Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Industrial Securities Investment, Zhaoyi Innovation, etc.</p><p>Compared with the initial fundraising in July last year, the fund has five more new faces: Wuhan Jinshan, Beijing Guidance Fund, Naxing Venture Capital, Diaowei, and Xinyin Haohong. The scale of the fund has also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in the first financing to 9.03 billion yuan, close to the target scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to industrial and commercial information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Zhizao Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Zhizao\"), which was registered and established on September 18, 2021, and the filing will be completed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the role of the fund, Kingsoft said that it is mainly engaged in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in unlisted companies.</p><p>The main targets are integrated circuits, as well as related upstream and downstream fields, covering new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, as well as upstream and downstream applications related to mobile terminal consumer goods and smart devices and supply chain.</p><p>It is not difficult to find that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current business of mobile phones and cars. For a long time, most of Xiaomi's investment business has basically focused on its main business and future development direction, carrying out technological upgrading and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automobiles and semiconductors.</p><p>Since the announcement of car manufacturing, Xiaomi has deployed a number of companies related to the automotive industry chain through investment and shareholding. According to Sinolink Securities's previous statistics, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of smart cars, including 17 companies in smart driving layout, 13 companies in smart electric layout, and 6 companies in smart cockpit layout. Among them, 22 companies are new investments in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investment actions were completed through Xiaomi Yangtze River Industrial Investment Fund. After the establishment of Xiaomi Zhichao, it focused more on the collaborative investment direction of Xiaomi's automotive business.</p><p>Public information shows that more than ten projects currently invested by Xiaomi Zhizao abroad all involve the automotive industry chain, including semiconductors, power batteries, core equipment parts and other links in the automotive industry chain.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's layout of the upstream and downstream fields of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as his previous layout of the Xiaomi ecological chain. This will help it further enhance the vertical integration capabilities of the vehicle business and ensure the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qthkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lei Jun's new story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLei Jun's new story\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全天候科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of ecological chain,</b></b><b>Instead</b><b><b>Tell the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>In the past few years, Xiaomi has built an ecological chain map, deployed in many smart device fields, and gradually allowed Mijia terminal smart products to penetrate into various IoT markets.</p><p>After the smartphone market entered the second half, Lei Jun no longer focused on the story of the ecological chain, but told the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun told the story of \"supply chain\" in the \"two sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, a representative of the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, one of which was about promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested encouraging and supporting the science and technology industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing, and the fundraising scale has increased from more than 6 billion last year to more than 9 billion yuan. The investment objectives of this fund focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream fields.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about the supply chain has made phased progress. Sinolink Securities's previous statistics show that as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of smart cars.</p><p>For a long time, \"cost performance\" has been the deepest label on Xiaomi. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for \"insufficient self-developed technical capabilities\". The investment in upstream core supply chain companies or technology companies shows Xiaomi's determination to strengthen its voice in the supply chain.</p><p>The opening of the supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>\"Voice\" for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>Since its debut in August last year, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from recent developments from Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs on the track of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>Among the suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that my country has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of bionic humanoid robots, but it still faces challenges such as the need to improve the performance of core components, insufficient application demand, and lack of large-scale mass production. Challenges such as capacity, imperfect application ecology and supporting support system.</p><p>To this end, he suggested: encouraging and supporting the science and technology industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry; Support complete machine enterprises to take the lead in creating a national innovation consortium and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecosystem of bionic humanoid robots and accelerate the cultivation of scene applications.</p><p>In June last year, under the effect of Musk's \"will launch humanoid robots\", concepts related to bionic humanoid robots became hot concepts in the domestic capital market, and this segmented track has also become the hottest track in the robotics industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi released the prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"Tieda\") at Lei Jun's annual speech before Tesla, and this enthusiasm also reached its peak.</p><p>The CyberOne launched by Xiaomi is not a PPT or a prop, but a prototype that can be taken out and interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per unit, and it is not yet possible to achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that Xiaomi was still in the first stage of its infancy with the highest degree of technology integration and difficulty.</p><p>Turning its attention abroad, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime released by Tesla on AI Day last year also did not reach the previously claimed level. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk, but I think it will walk in a few weeks.\"</p><p>Musk has previously released bold statements: the target price of Optimus Prime Optimus may be less than US $20,000, and more than one million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed the recent progress of Optimus Optimus at Tesla Investor Day: \"It doesn't work properly, but things are getting better.\"</p><p>Tesla is still increasing its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology found that Tesla China recently released job recruitment information in the direction of robotics, including automation control engineer (robot), electrical design engineer-robot development and application direction.</p><p>The prospects given by institutions are tempting. Global market research organization Marketsandmarkets predicts that the global humanoid robot market will increase from US $1.5 billion in 2022 to US $17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become another entrance after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>But it is undeniable that the bionic humanoid robot track is a track that requires long-term investment.</p><p>Domestically, there are still many realities that have to be solved in front of this track, such as core components, underlying operating systems and chips of robots, system design software, etc.</p><p><b>Tens of billions of funds focus on the integrated circuit industry chain</b></p><p>After raising more than 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, the \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2, Kingsoft announced that the company's subsidiaries Wuhan Kingsoft, Xiaomi Beijing, Xiaomi Wuhan, etc., entered into partnership agreements with other investors regarding the establishment of equity investment funds in integrated circuit-related fields, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Lei Jun's Xiaomi and Jinshan, the fund LP also includes Beijing Guidance Fund and Yizhuang State Investment, Tianjin Haichuang, Tianjin State-owned Beijing, Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Industrial Securities Investment, Zhaoyi Innovation, etc.</p><p>Compared with the initial fundraising in July last year, the fund has five more new faces: Wuhan Jinshan, Beijing Guidance Fund, Naxing Venture Capital, Diaowei, and Xinyin Haohong. The scale of the fund has also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in the first financing to 9.03 billion yuan, close to the target scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to industrial and commercial information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Zhizao Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Zhizao\"), which was registered and established on September 18, 2021, and the filing will be completed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the role of the fund, Kingsoft said that it is mainly engaged in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in unlisted companies.</p><p>The main targets are integrated circuits, as well as related upstream and downstream fields, covering new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, as well as upstream and downstream applications related to mobile terminal consumer goods and smart devices and supply chain.</p><p>It is not difficult to find that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current business of mobile phones and cars. For a long time, most of Xiaomi's investment business has basically focused on its main business and future development direction, carrying out technological upgrading and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automobiles and semiconductors.</p><p>Since the announcement of car manufacturing, Xiaomi has deployed a number of companies related to the automotive industry chain through investment and shareholding. According to Sinolink Securities's previous statistics, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of smart cars, including 17 companies in smart driving layout, 13 companies in smart electric layout, and 6 companies in smart cockpit layout. Among them, 22 companies are new investments in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investment actions were completed through Xiaomi Yangtze River Industrial Investment Fund. After the establishment of Xiaomi Zhichao, it focused more on the collaborative investment direction of Xiaomi's automotive business.</p><p>Public information shows that more than ten projects currently invested by Xiaomi Zhizao abroad all involve the automotive industry chain, including semiconductors, power batteries, core equipment parts and other links in the automotive industry chain.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's layout of the upstream and downstream fields of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as his previous layout of the Xiaomi ecological chain. This will help it further enhance the vertical integration capabilities of the vehicle business and ensure the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320\">全天候科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb44f0df3fb7312ee913474e800cc495","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154440961","content_text":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。近日，雷军将“供应链”的故事讲上了“两会”。2023年，作为全国人大代表的雷军准备了3份建议案，其中一份关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展。雷军建议，鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局。同样在这个月，“小米百亿基金”开展了第二轮融资，募资规模已从去年60多亿增至90多亿元。而这支基金的投资目标着重于集成电路以及相关上游及下游领域。小米关于供应链的故事已取得阶段性进展。国金证券此前统计数据显示，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家。一直以来，“性价比”是小米身上最深的标签。这也成为小米被外界诟病“自研技术能力不足”的原因。而对上游核心供应链企业或技术企业的投资，表明小米希望强供应链话语权的决心。供应链布局的开启，是雷军和小米试图抓住市场机遇的一次蓄力与尝试。雷军的新故事能否讲成？为人形机器人产业链“发声”去年8月亮相之后，有关小米仿生人形机器人CyberOne的消息一直不多。不过最近从小米传出的动态来看，雷军希望能在仿生人形机器人这个赛道上有更多的突破。在关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展的建议中，雷军认为，目前我国在仿生人形机器人核心技术方面已取得关键突破，但仍然面临核心部组件性能有待提升、应用需求牵引不足、不具备规模化量产能力、应用生态和配套支撑体系不健全等挑战。为此，他建议：鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局；支持整机企业牵头创建国家创新联合体，加强核心技术联合攻关；构建仿生人形机器人开放产业生态，加速场景应用培育。去年6月，在马斯克“将推出人形机器人”效应下，仿生人形机器人相关概念成为国内资本市场上的热门概念，这个细分赛道也成为机器人行业最热的赛道。两个月后，小米先于特斯拉在雷军年度演讲会上发布原型仿生机器人CyberOne（内部艺名“铁大”），这股热情也随之达到峰值。小米推出的CyberOne不是PPT，也不是道具，是可以拿出手的原型机，能与人进行互动。遗憾的是，CyberOne的成本每台高达六、七十万元，尚无法实现量产。彼时，雷军坦承，形仿生机器人的技术集成度最高、难度也最大，小米还处于刚刚起步的第一阶段。将视线转向国外，特斯拉在去年AI Day上发布的人形机器人擎天柱Optimus，同样没有达到此前宣称的水平。用马斯克的话来说，“它还没有完全准备好走路，但我认为它会在几周内走路。”马斯克此前放出豪言：擎天柱Optimus的目标价格可能低于2万美元，还要量产百万台之上。然而，马斯克在特斯拉投资者日上透露了擎天柱Optimus的最近进展：“无法正常工作，不过情况正在好转。”特斯拉仍在不断加大关于人形机器人的投入。全天候科技发现，特斯拉中国近期发布了机器人方向的岗位招聘信息，包括自动化控制工程师（机器人）、电气设计工程师-机器人开发及其应用方向。机构给出的前景很诱人。全球市场研究机构Marketsandmarkets预测，全球人形机器人市场规模将从2022年的15亿美元提升至2027年的173亿美元。民生证券认为，人形机器人有望成为继手机、汽车后的又一入口，商业价值巨大。但不可否认，仿生人形机器人赛道是一个需要长期投入的赛道。就国内而言，摆在这条赛道面前且不得不解决的现实还不少，如核心零部件、机器人底层操作系统与芯片、系统设计软件等。百亿基金聚焦集成电路产业链在去年首次募资超60亿元后，“小米百亿基金”在这个月又展开了第二轮融资。3月2日，金山软件公告称，公司附属公司武汉金山、小米北京、小米武汉等，与其他投资者订立合伙协议，内容有关成立集成电路相关领域股权投资基金，预期总规模100亿元。除雷军系的小米、金山外，该基金LP还包含北京国资背景的北京市引导基金、亦庄国投，天津国资北京的天津海创，以及海南华盈开泰、广州华多、兴证投资、兆易创新等。相较去年7月首次募资，该基金多5位新面孔：武汉金山、北京市引导基金、纳星创投、帝奥微、信银浩鸿。基金规模也从首次融资的63.3亿元增至90.3亿元，接近百亿目标规模。工商信息显示，该基金全名为：北京小米智造股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“小米智造”），2021年9月18日注册成立，2022年4月6日完成备案。对于该基金的作用，金山软件称：主要从事股权投资或准股权投资，或对非上市公司进行投资相关活动。主要对象便是集成电路，以及相关上游及下游领域，涵盖新一代信息科技、 智能制造、新材料、人工智能、显示器及显示装置、汽车电子，以及有关移动终端消费品、智能装置的上游及下游应用及供应链。从中不难发现，这些与小米当前业务手机、汽车密切相关。一直以来，小米的大部分投资业务基本围绕其主营业务和未来发展方向，进行技术提升和产业链布局，例如人工智能、物联网、汽车和半导体等。自宣布造车以来，小米就通过投资及入股等方式，布局多家汽车产业链相关企业。据国金证券此前统计，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家，其中智能驾驶布局17家企业，智能电动布局13家企业，智能座舱布局6家企业，当中有22家企业是2021年新增投资。此前，小米多数半导体投资动作是通过小米长江产业投资基金完成的。小米智造成立后，其更聚焦小米汽车业务协同投资方向。公开信息显示，小米智造目前对外投资的十余个项目，均涉及汽车产业链，包括汽车产业链半导体、动力电池、核心设备零件等多个环节。有行业人士分析认为，雷军布局集成电路产业上下游领域，与此前布局小米生态链如出一辙。这有利于其进一步提升整车业务的垂直整合能力，保障汽车关键零部件和软件系统供应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533357,"gmtCreate":1678019323780,"gmtModify":1678019326433,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533357","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automotive markets in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually rises, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. They have also improved the battery capacity through technological improvements, thus extending the original cruising range. They have been very popular among car companies in recent years.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China last year; In the United States, this proportion is only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But that trend is about to change-there are signs that the battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle markets in the United States and Japan, and seizing the market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after the new $1.6 billion plant goes online next year; By 2027, the company plans to supply enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery production capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that judging from the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery start-up Kore Power also predicts that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The plant the company plans to open in Arizona by the end of 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Etc. are also promoting the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>At the same time, Ford Motor announced that the two parties will cooperate in building a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to US $3.5 billion in the new factory. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license patented battery technologies; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of batteries and vehicles, and some equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate battery enters Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts) and can store 450,000 The electricity consumption of 50,000 households in a day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX, a renewable energy start-up established in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of the current mainstream product of fixed batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use fixed lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced in the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging equipment in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese companies accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies have an overwhelming advantage in the field of automotive batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>Data from the South Korean SNE survey show that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, the top two places are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the expansion speed of the electric vehicle market. After 2010, China issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location selection of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is also leading the way.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that the company's battery can make pure electric vehicles last more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch the \"M3P\" battery improved from lithium iron phosphate battery in 2023. The range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion batteries, which are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the United States because they had worse endurance than batteries like NMC, but could be recharged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said endurance is seen as too important for U.S. drivers to sacrifice it for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would recommend you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>In the past three years, the price of nickel has more than doubled; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also soared. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are very poor. Between 2020 and 2022, cobalt prices also rose sharply before falling back to levels they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>In addition, the adoption of public charging stations, driven by federal government subsidies, will accelerate, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery life. From a safety point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCapturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automotive markets in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually rises, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. They have also improved the battery capacity through technological improvements, thus extending the original cruising range. They have been very popular among car companies in recent years.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China last year; In the United States, this proportion is only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But that trend is about to change-there are signs that the battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle markets in the United States and Japan, and seizing the market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after the new $1.6 billion plant goes online next year; By 2027, the company plans to supply enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery production capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that judging from the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery start-up Kore Power also predicts that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The plant the company plans to open in Arizona by the end of 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Etc. are also promoting the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>At the same time, Ford Motor announced that the two parties will cooperate in building a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to US $3.5 billion in the new factory. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license patented battery technologies; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of batteries and vehicles, and some equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate battery enters Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts) and can store 450,000 The electricity consumption of 50,000 households in a day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX, a renewable energy start-up established in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of the current mainstream product of fixed batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use fixed lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced in the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging equipment in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese companies accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies have an overwhelming advantage in the field of automotive batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>Data from the South Korean SNE survey show that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, the top two places are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the expansion speed of the electric vehicle market. After 2010, China issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location selection of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is also leading the way.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that the company's battery can make pure electric vehicles last more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch the \"M3P\" battery improved from lithium iron phosphate battery in 2023. The range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion batteries, which are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the United States because they had worse endurance than batteries like NMC, but could be recharged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said endurance is seen as too important for U.S. drivers to sacrifice it for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would recommend you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>In the past three years, the price of nickel has more than doubled; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also soared. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are very poor. Between 2020 and 2022, cobalt prices also rose sharply before falling back to levels they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>In addition, the adoption of public charging stations, driven by federal government subsidies, will accelerate, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery life. From a safety point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533953,"gmtCreate":1678019317273,"gmtModify":1678019321152,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533953","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automotive markets in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually rises, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. They have also improved the battery capacity through technological improvements, thus extending the original cruising range. They have been very popular among car companies in recent years.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China last year; In the United States, this proportion is only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But that trend is about to change-there are signs that the battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle markets in the United States and Japan, and seizing the market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after the new $1.6 billion plant goes online next year; By 2027, the company plans to supply enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery production capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that judging from the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery start-up Kore Power also predicts that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The plant the company plans to open in Arizona by the end of 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Etc. are also promoting the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>At the same time, Ford Motor announced that the two parties will cooperate in building a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to US $3.5 billion in the new factory. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license patented battery technologies; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of batteries and vehicles, and some equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate battery enters Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts) and can store 450,000 The electricity consumption of 50,000 households in a day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX, a renewable energy start-up established in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of the current mainstream product of fixed batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use fixed lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced in the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging equipment in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese companies accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies have an overwhelming advantage in the field of automotive batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>Data from the South Korean SNE survey show that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, the top two places are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the expansion speed of the electric vehicle market. After 2010, China issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location selection of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is also leading the way.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that the company's battery can make pure electric vehicles last more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch the \"M3P\" battery improved from lithium iron phosphate battery in 2023. The range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion batteries, which are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the United States because they had worse endurance than batteries like NMC, but could be recharged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said endurance is seen as too important for U.S. drivers to sacrifice it for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would recommend you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>In the past three years, the price of nickel has more than doubled; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also soared. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are very poor. Between 2020 and 2022, cobalt prices also rose sharply before falling back to levels they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>In addition, the adoption of public charging stations, driven by federal government subsidies, will accelerate, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery life. From a safety point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Capturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCapturing the United States and Japan, Chinese batteries bring lithium iron phosphate to the top stream of electric cars\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automotive markets in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually rises, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. They have also improved the battery capacity through technological improvements, thus extending the original cruising range. They have been very popular among car companies in recent years.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China last year; In the United States, this proportion is only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But that trend is about to change-there are signs that the battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle markets in the United States and Japan, and seizing the market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after the new $1.6 billion plant goes online next year; By 2027, the company plans to supply enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery production capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that judging from the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery start-up Kore Power also predicts that the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The plant the company plans to open in Arizona by the end of 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries-nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>Etc. are also promoting the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">Ningde era</a>At the same time, Ford Motor announced that the two parties will cooperate in building a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to US $3.5 billion in the new factory. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license patented battery technologies; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of batteries and vehicles, and some equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate battery enters Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts) and can store 450,000 The electricity consumption of 50,000 households in a day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX, a renewable energy start-up established in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries, instead of the current mainstream product of fixed batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use fixed lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced in the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging equipment in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese companies accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies have an overwhelming advantage in the field of automotive batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>Data from the South Korean SNE survey show that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>, the top two places are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the expansion speed of the electric vehicle market. After 2010, China issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location selection of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is also leading the way.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that the company's battery can make pure electric vehicles last more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch the \"M3P\" battery improved from lithium iron phosphate battery in 2023. The range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion batteries, which are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the United States because they had worse endurance than batteries like NMC, but could be recharged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said endurance is seen as too important for U.S. drivers to sacrifice it for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would recommend you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>In the past three years, the price of nickel has more than doubled; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also soared. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are very poor. Between 2020 and 2022, cobalt prices also rose sharply before falling back to levels they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>In addition, the adoption of public charging stations, driven by federal government subsidies, will accelerate, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery life. From a safety point of view, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927731374,"gmtCreate":1672587259998,"gmtModify":1676538707879,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927731374","repostId":"9927108869","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9927108869,"gmtCreate":1672412401351,"gmtModify":1676538687732,"author":{"id":"3527667628464496","authorId":"3527667628464496","name":"Tiger_Newspress","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667628464496","idStr":"3527667628464496"},"themes":[],"title":"Meme Stocks Slid in Morning Trading","htmlText":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%;&nbsp;AMC&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%;&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%.Shares of firms such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC(AMC)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>, and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a> surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","listText":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%;&nbsp;AMC&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%;&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%.Shares of firms such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC(AMC)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>, and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a> surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","text":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.$Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ fell nearly 4%; AMC fell nearly 3%; BlackBerry fell over 2%.Shares of firms such as $AMC(AMC)$, $GameStop(GME)$, and $Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887e6454d6a3e69c4b2ea3e81d13cbfd","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927108869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967547059,"gmtCreate":1670366412872,"gmtModify":1676538351217,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967547059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961501565,"gmtCreate":1668991323457,"gmtModify":1676538135042,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961501565","repostId":"1180106569","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180106569","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668985676,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180106569?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-21 07:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This week's preview | Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. announce financial reports, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting are coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180106569","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"本周（11.21-11.25）重磅财经事件：事件方面，市场重点关注周四美联储FOMC公布的11月货币政策会议纪要，市场目前预计美联储将在12月加息50个基点，但市场担忧未减。美国股市周四将因感恩节休市","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (11.21-11.25):</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The market is focusing on the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve FOMC on Thursday. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to issue a 50 basis point rate hike in December, but market concerns have not diminished. U.S. stocks will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and early on Friday.<b>As for economic data,</b>China's one-year and five-year LPR data, U.S. jobless claims for the week, U.S.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Data such as the initial value of service PMI, EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week, and the initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone will be released one after another;<b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Several companies will release quarterly earnings reports, including Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Kuaishou, Xiaomi and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, Tiger International, etc.;<b>In terms of new shares,</b>Lingxiong Technology (Bear U Rent) will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9593fecb767c398ebb43de6fe590476\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd28d8c3ac65682d2484f2ade06b694\" tg-width=\"2096\" tg-height=\"1458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords on Monday, November 21: China's November LPR quotation,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>/Douyu financial report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063073c9da6799339cd8d8018f42cd26\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data, China's 1-year and 5-year loan market quoted interest rate (LPR)</b>Will be published<b>。</b></p><p><b>In October, the 1-year LPR was 3.65%, and the LPR over 5 years was 4.3%, both unchanged.</b>On November 15, the central bank launched an 850 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and an open market reverse repurchase operation of 172 billion yuan, both of which kept interest rates unchanged. Although the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in November, it means that the basis of LPR quotation for that month has not changed. However, many experts believe that there is still a downward momentum in the quotation of LPR (loan market quotation rate) during the year. In addition, investors can pay attention to<b>Germany PPI monthly rate in October</b>。</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, November 22: Baidu/Kuaishou/iQiyi and other financial reports</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa725980f0c92eda74f2119bd62774ce\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>Investors can pay attention to the seasonally adjusted current account of the euro zone and the manufacturing index of Richmond Fed in the United States.</p><p><b>As for economic events,</b>NYMEX New York crude oil December futures were affected by the change of positions and months. The last transaction on the floor was completed at 3:30 on November 22, and the last transaction on the electronic trading was completed at 6:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the announcement of expiration and month change in the trading place to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Results will be published;</p><p>Bloomberg's consensus forecast is that Kuaishou's Q3 revenue will be 22.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%; Adjusted net profit was-1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63%, and adjusted EPS was-0.395. Related reading: Kuaishou Q3 financial report preview: high-quality content + competition slows down, losses are expected to narrow by 60%</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell Technologies</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom Video Communication</a>The earnings report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">Luckin Coffee</a>The earnings report will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, November 23: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week, U.S. Markit services PMI initial value, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week, Xiaomi Group/Tiger International/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01093\">CSPC Pharmaceutical</a>Financial Statements</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf596df4a85e357a6daf4cb49deed51\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"1364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Wednesday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States that week, the initial value of the Markit service PMI in the United States, the annualized total new home sales in the United States, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States that week.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01093\">CSPC Pharmaceutical</a>Results will be published;</p><p>According to Bloomberg analysts' expectations, Xiaomi Group's Q3 revenue in 2022 will be 70.153 billion yuan; Adjusted net profit was 1.984 billion yuan, and adjusted EPS was 0.083 yuan. In addition, the US stock Tiger International will announce its financial report before the US stock market opens;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>Announce financial reports after the U.S. stock market closes;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DE\">Deere shares</a>Will announce earnings before the market opens.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02436\">Lingxiong Technology (Bear U Rent)</a></b>The winning results will be announced.</p><p>Lingxiong Technology is a provider of equipment life cycle management solutions, mainly engaged in the sale of refurbished and obsolete IT equipment to, among other things, IT equipment distributors in China, and the provision of equipment and IT technology subscription services to small and medium-sized enterprises. In 2021, the company's revenue accounted for approximately 3.9% of the market share. According to CIC Consulting, Lingxiong Technology is the first company in China to create a full equipment life cycle management business model, which covers long-term and short-term subscription periods and the main stages of the equipment life cycle.<b>Keywords for Thursday, November 24: Federal Reserve FOMC releases minutes of November monetary policy meeting, U.S. stocks are closed</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1212718eeb8cd4b39ee805bf0139c586\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can pay attention to the EIA natural gas inventory in the United States and the German IFO business climate index for the week.</p><p><b>In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November currency rise meeting.</b>Investors can learn more details about the Fed's thinking.</p><p>As of now, the mainstream market expects the Fed to issue a 50 basis point rate hike in December, but market concerns have not diminished. rate hike 75 basis points again. The trend of U.S. stocks also shows that market sentiment and future expectations are uncertain. Investors also need to pay attention<b>Closure announcement of major U.S. exchanges during Thanksgiving: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day</b>； The trading of Brent crude oil futures contract under ICE in the United States ended early at 02:30 Beijing time the next day; U.S. CME's precious metals and U.S. crude oil contract trading ended early at 03:30 Beijing time the next day.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02436\">Lingxiong Technology (Bear U Rent)</a>Will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><b>Friday, November 25KEYWORDS: Meituan earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aecbfdd8b336cc9125556f0cc9daea0\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Friday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors need to pay attention to the German Gfk consumer confidence index and the final value of Germany's unseasonally adjusted annual GDP rate.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a><b>The financial report is coming!</b></p><p>Bloomberg's consensus forecast is that Meituan's Q3 operating income will be 62.39 billion yuan, adjusted net profit will be 864 million yuan, and adjusted EPS will be 0.164 yuan.<b>In terms of events,</b>Investors also need to pay attention<b>Closure announcement of major U.S. exchanges: U.S. stocks will be closed at 02:00 Beijing time the next day.</b>Trading of the Brent crude oil futures contract under ICE in the United States ended early at 04:00 Beijing time the next day. U.S. CME's precious metals and U.S. crude oil contract trading ended ahead of schedule at 02:45 Beijing time the next day; Its foreign exchange contract trading ended ahead of schedule at 02:15 Beijing time the next day.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This week's preview | Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. announce financial reports, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting are coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis week's preview | Meituan, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, etc. announce financial reports, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November monetary policy meeting are coming\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-21 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Major financial events this week (11.21-11.25):</b></p><p><b>In terms of events,</b>The market is focusing on the minutes of the November monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve FOMC on Thursday. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to issue a 50 basis point rate hike in December, but market concerns have not diminished. U.S. stocks will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and early on Friday.<b>As for economic data,</b>China's one-year and five-year LPR data, U.S. jobless claims for the week, U.S.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Data such as the initial value of service PMI, EIA crude oil inventory in the United States for the week, and the initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone will be released one after another;<b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Several companies will release quarterly earnings reports, including Meituan,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>, Kuaishou, Xiaomi and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>, Tiger International, etc.;<b>In terms of new shares,</b>Lingxiong Technology (Bear U Rent) will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9593fecb767c398ebb43de6fe590476\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cd28d8c3ac65682d2484f2ade06b694\" tg-width=\"2096\" tg-height=\"1458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Keywords on Monday, November 21: China's November LPR quotation,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>/Douyu financial report</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/063073c9da6799339cd8d8018f42cd26\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>On Monday, in terms of economic data, China's 1-year and 5-year loan market quoted interest rate (LPR)</b>Will be published<b>。</b></p><p><b>In October, the 1-year LPR was 3.65%, and the LPR over 5 years was 4.3%, both unchanged.</b>On November 15, the central bank launched an 850 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and an open market reverse repurchase operation of 172 billion yuan, both of which kept interest rates unchanged. Although the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in November, it means that the basis of LPR quotation for that month has not changed. However, many experts believe that there is still a downward momentum in the quotation of LPR (loan market quotation rate) during the year. In addition, investors can pay attention to<b>Germany PPI monthly rate in October</b>。</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">Betta fish</a>Will report earnings.</p><p><b>Keywords for Tuesday, November 22: Baidu/Kuaishou/iQiyi and other financial reports</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa725980f0c92eda74f2119bd62774ce\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"647\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>In terms of economic data on Tuesday,</b>Investors can pay attention to the seasonally adjusted current account of the euro zone and the manufacturing index of Richmond Fed in the United States.</p><p><b>As for economic events,</b>NYMEX New York crude oil December futures were affected by the change of positions and months. The last transaction on the floor was completed at 3:30 on November 22, and the last transaction on the electronic trading was completed at 6:00 in the morning. Please pay attention to the announcement of expiration and month change in the trading place to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX, so please pay more attention.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">Baidu Group-SW</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>Results will be published;</p><p>Bloomberg's consensus forecast is that Kuaishou's Q3 revenue will be 22.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%; Adjusted net profit was-1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63%, and adjusted EPS was-0.395. Related reading: Kuaishou Q3 financial report preview: high-quality content + competition slows down, losses are expected to narrow by 60%</p><p>Furthermore,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">Dell Technologies</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom Video Communication</a>The earnings report will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">Yixian E-commerce</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">Luckin Coffee</a>The earnings report will be announced before the U.S. stock market opens.</p><p><b>Keywords for Wednesday, November 23: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week, U.S. Markit services PMI initial value, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week, Xiaomi Group/Tiger International/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01093\">CSPC Pharmaceutical</a>Financial Statements</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf596df4a85e357a6daf4cb49deed51\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"1364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Wednesday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States that week, the initial value of the Markit service PMI in the United States, the annualized total new home sales in the United States, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States, and the EIA crude oil inventory in the United States that week.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports,</b>Hong Kong Stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">Xiaomi Group-W</a><b>、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01093\">CSPC Pharmaceutical</a>Results will be published;</p><p>According to Bloomberg analysts' expectations, Xiaomi Group's Q3 revenue in 2022 will be 70.153 billion yuan; Adjusted net profit was 1.984 billion yuan, and adjusted EPS was 0.083 yuan. In addition, the US stock Tiger International will announce its financial report before the US stock market opens;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>Announce financial reports after the U.S. stock market closes;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DE\">Deere shares</a>Will announce earnings before the market opens.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02436\">Lingxiong Technology (Bear U Rent)</a></b>The winning results will be announced.</p><p>Lingxiong Technology is a provider of equipment life cycle management solutions, mainly engaged in the sale of refurbished and obsolete IT equipment to, among other things, IT equipment distributors in China, and the provision of equipment and IT technology subscription services to small and medium-sized enterprises. In 2021, the company's revenue accounted for approximately 3.9% of the market share. According to CIC Consulting, Lingxiong Technology is the first company in China to create a full equipment life cycle management business model, which covers long-term and short-term subscription periods and the main stages of the equipment life cycle.<b>Keywords for Thursday, November 24: Federal Reserve FOMC releases minutes of November monetary policy meeting, U.S. stocks are closed</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1212718eeb8cd4b39ee805bf0139c586\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Thursday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors can pay attention to the EIA natural gas inventory in the United States and the German IFO business climate index for the week.</p><p><b>In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the November currency rise meeting.</b>Investors can learn more details about the Fed's thinking.</p><p>As of now, the mainstream market expects the Fed to issue a 50 basis point rate hike in December, but market concerns have not diminished. rate hike 75 basis points again. The trend of U.S. stocks also shows that market sentiment and future expectations are uncertain. Investors also need to pay attention<b>Closure announcement of major U.S. exchanges during Thanksgiving: U.S. stocks will be closed for one day</b>； The trading of Brent crude oil futures contract under ICE in the United States ended early at 02:30 Beijing time the next day; U.S. CME's precious metals and U.S. crude oil contract trading ended early at 03:30 Beijing time the next day.</p><p><b>In terms of new shares,</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02436\">Lingxiong Technology (Bear U Rent)</a>Will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><b>Friday, November 25KEYWORDS: Meituan earnings</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aecbfdd8b336cc9125556f0cc9daea0\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>Friday, in terms of economic data,</b>Investors need to pay attention to the German Gfk consumer confidence index and the final value of Germany's unseasonally adjusted annual GDP rate.</p><p><b>In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">Meituan-W</a><b>The financial report is coming!</b></p><p>Bloomberg's consensus forecast is that Meituan's Q3 operating income will be 62.39 billion yuan, adjusted net profit will be 864 million yuan, and adjusted EPS will be 0.164 yuan.<b>In terms of events,</b>Investors also need to pay attention<b>Closure announcement of major U.S. exchanges: U.S. stocks will be closed at 02:00 Beijing time the next day.</b>Trading of the Brent crude oil futures contract under ICE in the United States ended early at 04:00 Beijing time the next day. U.S. CME's precious metals and U.S. crude oil contract trading ended ahead of schedule at 02:45 Beijing time the next day; Its foreign exchange contract trading ended ahead of schedule at 02:15 Beijing time the next day.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46744ceebcd5f9f6cbe09f85295d7cfe","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SG9999002828.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Dragon Peacock A SGD","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","03690":"美团-W","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","01024":"快手-W","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","BK1607":"新IT概念","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK1604":"节假日概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180106569","content_text":"本周（11.21-11.25）重磅财经事件：事件方面，市场重点关注周四美联储FOMC公布的11月货币政策会议纪要，市场目前预计美联储将在12月加息50个基点，但市场担忧未减。美国股市周四将因感恩节休市，周五则提前休市。经济数据方面，中国一年期和五年期LPR数据、美国当周初请失业金人数、美国Markit服务业PMI初值、美国当周EIA原油库存、欧元区制造业PMI初值等数据将陆续出炉；财报方面，多家公司将发布季度财报，包括美团、百度、快手、小米和爱奇艺、老虎国际等；新股方面，凌雄科技(小熊U租)将登陆港交所。11月21日 周一关键词：中国11月LPR报价、小牛电动/斗鱼财报周一，经济数据方面，中国1年期和5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）将公布。10月1年期LPR为3.65%，5年期以上LPR为4.3%，均保持不变。11月15日，央行开展8500亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作和1720亿元公开市场逆回购操作，均维持利率不变。虽然11月MLF利率不变，意味着当月LPR报价基础未发生变化。但多位专家认为，年内LPR(贷款市场报价利率)报价依然存在下行动力。此外，投资者可关注德国10月PPI月率。财报方面，小牛电动、斗鱼将公布财报。11月22日 周二关键词：百度/快手/爱奇艺等财报周二，经济数据方面，投资者可关注欧元区季调后经常帐、美国里奇蒙德联储制造业指数等。经济事件方面，NYMEX纽约原油12月期货受移仓换月影响11月22日3:30完成场内最后交易，凌晨6:00完成电子盘最后交易，请留意交易场所到期换月公告控制风险。此外，部分交易平台美油合约到期时间通常较NYMEX官方提前一天，请多加留意。财报方面，百度集团-SW、快手-W将公布业绩；彭博一致预期为，快手Q3营收226亿人民币，同比增长18.1%；调整后净利润-17.5亿人民币，同比收窄63%，调整后EPS为-0.395。相关阅读：快手Q3财报前瞻：优质内容+竞争趋缓，亏损有望大幅收窄60%此外，戴尔科技、Zoom视频通讯将于美股盘后公布财报；爱奇艺、逸仙电商、瑞幸咖啡将于美股盘前公布财报。11月23日 周三关键词：美国当周初请失业金人数、美国Markit服务业PMI初值、美国当周EIA原油库存、小米集团/老虎国际/石药集团财报周三，经济数据方面，投资者可关注美国当周初请失业金人数、美国Markit服务业PMI初值、美国新屋销售总数年化、美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值、美国当周EIA原油库存等。财报方面，港股小米集团-W、石药集团将公布业绩；据彭博分析师预期，小米集团2022年Q3营收为701.53亿人民币；调整后净利润为19.84亿人民币，调整后EPS为0.083元人民币。此外，美股老虎国际将于美股盘前公布财报；惠普于美股盘后公布财报；迪尔股份将于盘前公布财报。新股方面，凌雄科技(小熊U租)将公布中签结果。凌雄科技是一家设备全生命周期管理解决方案供应商，主要在中国从事向(其中包括)IT设备经销商销售翻新淘汰IT设备，以及向中小企业提供设备及IT技术订阅服务。于2021年，公司的收入占市场份额约3.9%。根据灼识咨询的资料，凌雄科技是中国首家打造了设备全生命周期管理业务模式的公司，该模式覆盖长短期订阅期及设备生命周期主要阶段。11月24日 周四关键词：美联储FOMC公布11月货币政策会议纪要、美股休市周四，经济数据方面，投资者可关注美国当周EIA天然气库存、德国IFO商业景气指数。财经事件方面，美联储将公布11月货币涨超会议纪要，投资者可以从中了解美联储想法的更多细节。截至目前，市场主流预期美联储将在12月加息50基点，但是市场担忧未减，2022年FOMC票委波士顿联储主席柯林斯周五表示，她认为没有什么证据表明价格压力正在减弱，美联储可能需要再次加息75个基点。美股走势也显示市场情绪和未来预期举棋不定。投资者还需关注感恩节期间美国各大交易所的休市公告：美股休市一日；美国ICE旗下布伦特原油期货合约交易提前于北京时间次日02:30结束；美国CME旗下贵金属、美国原油合约交易提前于北京时间次日03:30结束。新股方面，凌雄科技(小熊U租)将登陆港交所。11月25日 周五关键词：美团财报周五，经济数据方面，投资者需关注德国Gfk消费者信心指数、德国未季调GDP年率终值。财报方面，港股美团-W财报重磅来袭！彭博的一致预期为，美团Q3营业收入623.9亿人民币，调整后净利润8.64亿人民币，调整后EPS0.164人民币。事件方面，投资者还需关注美国各大交易所的休市公告：美股提前于北京时间次日02:00休市。美国ICE旗下布伦特原油期货合约交易提前于北京时间次日04:00结束。美国CME旗下贵金属、美国原油合约交易提前于北京时间次日02:45结束；旗下外汇合约交易提前于北京时间次日02:15结束。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"90022":0.9,"01024":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"01810":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"03690":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949659563,"gmtCreate":1678631425253,"gmtModify":1678631429479,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949659563","repostId":"1120362149","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120362149","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678079397,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120362149?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-06 13:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: The United States will enter daylight saving time from March 12, and U.S. stocks will open one hour earlier","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120362149","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国2023年夏令时将于2023年3月12日美东时间02：00开始，至2023年11月5日美东时间02：00终止。届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Daylight Saving Time 2023 will begin at 02:00 EST on March 12, 2023 and end at 02:00 EST on November 5, 2023. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, from 21:30 Monday to Friday to 04:00 the next day; March 13 is the first trading day for U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 09:30 ~ 16:00 (closed at noon); Beijing time: 21:30 ~ 04:00 the next day</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04:00 ~ 09:30; Beijing Time: 16:00 ~ 21:30</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00 ~ 20:00; Beijing Time: 04:00 ~ 08:00</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: The United States will enter daylight saving time from March 12, and U.S. stocks will open one hour earlier</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: The United States will enter daylight saving time from March 12, and U.S. stocks will open one hour earlier\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-06 13:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Daylight Saving Time 2023 will begin at 02:00 EST on March 12, 2023 and end at 02:00 EST on November 5, 2023. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the U.S. stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, from 21:30 Monday to Friday to 04:00 the next day; March 13 is the first trading day for U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 09:30 ~ 16:00 (closed at noon); Beijing time: 21:30 ~ 04:00 the next day</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04:00 ~ 09:30; Beijing Time: 16:00 ~ 21:30</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00 ~ 20:00; Beijing Time: 04:00 ~ 08:00</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120362149","content_text":"美国2023年夏令时将于2023年3月12日美东时间02：00开始，至2023年11月5日美东时间02：00终止。届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00；3月13日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。交易时间美国东部时间：09：30~16：00 (午间不休市)；北京时间：21：30~次日04：00盘前交易时间美国东部时间：04：00~09：30；北京时间：16：00~21:30盘后交易时间美国东部时间：16：00~20：00；北京时间：04：00~08：00（注：夏令时为每年3月的第二个星期日至11月的第一个星期日，冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315570,"gmtCreate":1678362711390,"gmtModify":1678362713241,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315570","repostId":"1155614396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155614396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678355356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155614396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 17:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155614396","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an acceleration of selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 index tested the level around 3,900 again after falling below the resistance level of 4,060-4,089.</b>We believe that,<b>A break below 3900 could lead to an acceleration in selling pressure</b>, as this point has been a bifurcation point for the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank regards 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after falling below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic situation forecast is,<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will again test the low of 3,500 in October 2022, bottoming out the cycle, which depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve has reached 2022 The fact that it bottomed out in September.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations for the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that,<b>The odds of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3,200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 have increased.</b></p><p>Although it has fallen back recently,<b>However, compared with the curve shape of the money market (based on terminal interest rate expectations and the rate cut within 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, with an overestimate of 5%.</b>The rest of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model is roughly in line with the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, affected by weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other things being equal, there's additional downward pressure on stocks.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures are at risk of falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through successfully in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A breakdown below this support level could lead not only to substantial liquidation but also to a general deterioration in risky market sentiment</b>, because copper is often regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in multiple risk markets are again threatened to fall below, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, along with two frequently mentioned CTA triggers (3-month and 6-month trend momentum) nearby. In addition, this area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement of the October-February rally, the internal trend line containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, serving either as support or resistance during this period (see the dotted blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the October 2022 low of 3,491 and the repeated invalidation of our bullish 4100 resistance zone in the first few months of 2023 leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a counter-trend rise in a continued bear market. In our view, a breakdown below the support level at 3888-3971 would not only validate this assessment, but also suspect that it would accelerate the downside, which could first lead to a drop to the December low at 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction line from October at 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3,698 on November 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and a large number of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe a low in a cycle in the first half of '23 could retest this support level. However, the Fed's hawkish expectations raised the probability of a risk scenario following a series of better-than-expected economic data, with the S&P 500 slipping towards support near 3,200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has bottomed out when it was lowered by 30 basis points in September 2022. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The last time the bear market flattened was at the September low, and in the next few weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bad news for economic growth may not be good for stocks in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we pointed out recently, the value of the S&P 500 Index appears to be overvalued compared to the trend of the money market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate are used as independent variables,<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, more than 1.5 standard deviations compared to the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Activity Surprise Index looks consistent with the remaining price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months after inflation data really picked up in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term could cause the S&P 500 to move slightly lower, as the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a 65 basis point shift towards a dovish) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index 1-February's surge in pullback/retracement coincides with a hawkish shift in policy expectations, and the S&P 500 will be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 index falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets related to China's reopening and a rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on futures copper, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakthrough point, January 61.8% Fibonacci pullback, July 38.2% Fibonacci pullback and January-February and other band targets (see chart below).<b>Falling below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt an increase in liquidation, but also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4 '22, which may generally worsen high-risk market sentiment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: Powell suppresses S&P 500, falling below 3900 will lead to acceleration of selling pressure\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 17:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an acceleration of selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 index tested the level around 3,900 again after falling below the resistance level of 4,060-4,089.</b>We believe that,<b>A break below 3900 could lead to an acceleration in selling pressure</b>, as this point has been a bifurcation point for the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank regards 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after falling below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic situation forecast is,<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will again test the low of 3,500 in October 2022, bottoming out the cycle, which depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve has reached 2022 The fact that it bottomed out in September.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations for the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that,<b>The odds of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3,200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 have increased.</b></p><p>Although it has fallen back recently,<b>However, compared with the curve shape of the money market (based on terminal interest rate expectations and the rate cut within 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, with an overestimate of 5%.</b>The rest of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model is roughly in line with the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, affected by weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other things being equal, there's additional downward pressure on stocks.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures are at risk of falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through successfully in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A breakdown below this support level could lead not only to substantial liquidation but also to a general deterioration in risky market sentiment</b>, because copper is often regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in multiple risk markets are again threatened to fall below, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, along with two frequently mentioned CTA triggers (3-month and 6-month trend momentum) nearby. In addition, this area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement of the October-February rally, the internal trend line containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, serving either as support or resistance during this period (see the dotted blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the October 2022 low of 3,491 and the repeated invalidation of our bullish 4100 resistance zone in the first few months of 2023 leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a counter-trend rise in a continued bear market. In our view, a breakdown below the support level at 3888-3971 would not only validate this assessment, but also suspect that it would accelerate the downside, which could first lead to a drop to the December low at 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction line from October at 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3,698 on November 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and a large number of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe a low in a cycle in the first half of '23 could retest this support level. However, the Fed's hawkish expectations raised the probability of a risk scenario following a series of better-than-expected economic data, with the S&P 500 slipping towards support near 3,200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has bottomed out when it was lowered by 30 basis points in September 2022. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The last time the bear market flattened was at the September low, and in the next few weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bad news for economic growth may not be good for stocks in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we pointed out recently, the value of the S&P 500 Index appears to be overvalued compared to the trend of the money market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate are used as independent variables,<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, more than 1.5 standard deviations compared to the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Activity Surprise Index looks consistent with the remaining price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months after inflation data really picked up in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term could cause the S&P 500 to move slightly lower, as the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a 65 basis point shift towards a dovish) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index 1-February's surge in pullback/retracement coincides with a hawkish shift in policy expectations, and the S&P 500 will be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 index falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets related to China's reopening and a rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on futures copper, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakthrough point, January 61.8% Fibonacci pullback, July 38.2% Fibonacci pullback and January-February and other band targets (see chart below).<b>Falling below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt an increase in liquidation, but also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4 '22, which may generally worsen high-risk market sentiment.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155614396","content_text":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900点附近水平。我行认为，跌破3900点可能会导致抛压加速，因为自2022年5月以来，该点一直是标普500的分叉点，目前还与基于动量策略的几个趋势跟踪触发水平保持一致。我行将3760-3764点视为跌破3900点后的初步目标区间。我行的基本情况预测是，23年上半年标普500指数将再次测试2022年10月3500点的低点，为该周期筑底，这在一定程度上取决于5年期/10年期美债收益率曲线已在2022年9月触底的事实。在20世纪70年代供给受限时期，宏观环境受一系列通胀冲击主导时，股市与国债收益率曲线呈正相关，并在收益率曲线建立周期低点后的1-5个月内触底。随着最近鹰派预期让收益率曲线突破2022年9月低点，未来每当曲线触底，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。因此，我行认为，标普500指数进一步下滑至3200点附近的下一支撑位并在2023年上半年触底的可能性有所增加。虽然最近有所回落，但跟货币市场的曲线形状相比（基于终端利率预期和在达到终端利率后24个月内的降息幅度），标普500指数仍然过高，高估达5%。该回归模型得出的标普500指数其余的表现与摩根大通编制的美国经济活动意外指数大致相符，尤其是在2022年年中通胀飙升后的几个月。短期内，受经济数据疲软影响，股市恐怕难以提振。事实上，该模型显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，股市还会出现额外的下行压力。期货铜有跌破386-396关键支撑位的风险。我们认为，2023年一季度行情未能成功上破，如果跌破该支撑位，可能不仅会导致大量平仓，还可能导致高风险市场情绪普遍恶化，因为铜通常被视为全球制造业需求晴雨表。多个风险市场的关键支撑位再度面临跌破威胁，包括标普500指数在跌破2月10日4060点和2月17日4089点的阻力位后，鲍威尔的鹰派言论使标普500指数滑向3900点的关键汇合点附近（见下图）。标普500指数的50日、100日和200日均线都在该点附近汇聚，附近还有两个经常被提及的CTA触发点位（3个月和6个月趋势动量）。另外，该区域还包括10月至2月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤，包含2022年熊市反弹的内部趋势线，以及3900点拐点。自2022年5月以来，3900点就成为该指数的一个分叉点，在此期间要么作为支撑位，要么是阻力位（见下图蓝色虚线）。从模式角度来看，从2022年10月3491点低点上涨的震荡性质，以及2023年前几个月我们看好的4100点阻力区反复失效，这使我们相信，反弹只是持续熊市中的逆势上涨。在我们看来，跌破3888-3971点支撑位不仅会验证这一评估，而且怀疑其会使下行加速，首先可能会跌至12月3764低点和10月的61.8%斐波那契回调线3760点。其他中期支撑位包括11月3日的3698点低点，10月78.6%回调点的3642点，以及去年秋季支撑市场的3500点附近大量的长线点位。在我们2023年的展望中，我们认为23年上半年某个周期的低点可能会重新测试该支撑位。然而，在一系列好于预期的经济数据公布后，美联储的鹰派预期增加了风险情形出现的概率，在筑底之前，标普500指数滑向3200附近的支撑位。更乐观的前景在一定程度上依赖于这样一种观点，即5年期/10年期国债收益率曲线已经在2022年9月降低30基点时筑底。在20世纪60年代末到70年代末的供给侧受限和反复通胀冲击期间，股市与收益率曲线成正相关，并在曲线见底后的1-5个月内见底（见下图绿色圈的价格走势）。最近一次熊市趋平是在9月的低点，未来几周，曲线触底时，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。对经济增长不利的消息，短期内未必对股市有利短期内，鹰派预期最终也会对股价走势构成压力。正如我们最近指出，与货币市场曲线的走势相比，标普500指数的价值似乎被高估了（见下图1）。在18个月的回归模型中，使用终端利率预期和达到终端利率后24个月的降息幅度作为自变量，该指数现在被高估了5%以上，与研究期间的剩余价格表现相比，高出了1.5个标准差以上。摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数看起来与研究期间的标普500指数剩余价格走势一致，特别是在去年年中通胀数据真正回升后的几个月中（见下图2）。在此期间，经济活动意外指数几乎能解释剩余股票指数的一半表现。这些回归模型表明，由于短期内经济数据弱于预期，美联储政策利率预期的正常化可能导致标普500指数小幅走低，因为该指数的过度剩余丰富性比市场根据历史敏感性向较低终端利率的调整更为极端。换句话说，纳入所有这些因素的12个月回归模型表明，假设终端利率为5%（向鸽派65个基点转向），之后降息200个基点（与当前定价相差不远），摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数1-2月的飙升回撤，与政策预期的鹰派转向同时发生，标准普尔500指数的价值会为3875点。最后，正如我们上次指出，全球其他市场也位于关键技术位之上，如果随着标普500指数跌破3900点，这些市场也开始跌破各自关键技术位，就有可能触发投资者避险趋势。具体来说，许多与中国重新开放和市场活动反弹相关的市场正在接近1月的突破区间，某些情况下，移动平均线的震荡频率变小。我们最近重点关注期货铜，因为铜经常被视为全球制造业需求的风向标。工业金属期货市场正接近400点以下的关键支撑位，包括第四季度区间高点/1月突破点位、1月61.8%斐波那契回调、7月38.2%斐波那契回调和1-2月等波段目标位（见下图）。跌破这一明显的拐点不仅会促使平仓增加，而且无法维持22年第四季度的行情突破，可能使高风险市场情绪普遍恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533686,"gmtCreate":1678019375845,"gmtModify":1678019379296,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533686","repostId":"1157059208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533102,"gmtCreate":1678019336606,"gmtModify":1678019340244,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533102","repostId":"2317152105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940956914,"gmtCreate":1677662716239,"gmtModify":1677671507943,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940956914","repostId":"1173798723","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173798723","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677662099,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173798723?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-01 17:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"IQiyi: Plans to issue US $600 million in convertible senior notes due 2028","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173798723","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月1日，爱奇艺盘前跌近7%，公司称拟发行总额6亿美元的2028年到期可转换优先票据。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 1st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>It fell nearly 7% before the market. The company said it planned to issue a total of US $600 million in convertible senior notes due 2028.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c01a40443ba3b4c78ee2f787498c24e\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IQiyi: Plans to issue US $600 million in convertible senior notes due 2028</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIQiyi: Plans to issue US $600 million in convertible senior notes due 2028\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-01 17:14</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 1st,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">IQiyi</a>It fell nearly 7% before the market. The company said it planned to issue a total of US $600 million in convertible senior notes due 2028.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c01a40443ba3b4c78ee2f787498c24e\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48fbc541b07547e95dfb5b1221fb6ed","relate_stocks":{"BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1587":"次新股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK1609":"ChatGPT概念","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","09888":"百度集团-SW","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","LU0819121731.USD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"AC\" (USD) ACC","IQ":"爱奇艺","LU0315179316.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN DYNAMIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU0173614495.USD":"富达中国焦点A","BK1588":"回港中概股","LU0856984785.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA FOCUSED GROWTH \"ACH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","SG9999002828.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Dragon Peacock A SGD","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","LU1115378108.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Emerging Markets Dynamic AS SGD","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173798723","content_text":"3月1日，爱奇艺盘前跌近7%，公司称拟发行总额6亿美元的2028年到期可转换优先票据。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IQ":0.9,"09888":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923275865,"gmtCreate":1670882102858,"gmtModify":1676538450554,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923275865","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963912808,"gmtCreate":1668565108305,"gmtModify":1676538076928,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963912808","repostId":"1116136622","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116136622","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668563394,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116136622?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 09:49","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Former US President Donald Trump officially announced his candidacy for the 2024 US presidential election","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116136622","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月16日讯，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普正式宣布参加2024年美国总统大选。（财联社）","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On November 16, former US President Donald Trump officially announced his participation in the 2024 US presidential election. (Financial Associated Press)</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Former US President Donald Trump officially announced his candidacy for the 2024 US presidential election</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFormer US President Donald Trump officially announced his candidacy for the 2024 US presidential election\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-16 09:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On November 16, former US President Donald Trump officially announced his participation in the 2024 US presidential election. (Financial Associated Press)</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208ddb2814b787ae78210975aee79676","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116136622","content_text":"11月16日讯，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普正式宣布参加2024年美国总统大选。（财联社）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DJT":1,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911765369,"gmtCreate":1664264276152,"gmtModify":1676537421665,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911765369","repostId":"2270299946","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270299946","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664255280,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2270299946?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 13:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Continue 75 basis points in November? Wall Street rate hike Expectations Burst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270299946","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储将“鹰无止境”？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Rate hike was followed by interest rate cuts. Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at an initial rate of 25 basis points per meeting starting in September 2023; By the second quarter of 2024, the rate cuts will accelerate to 50 basis points per meeting.</b><b>Wall Street rate hike is expected to burst: UBS \"continues to 75 basis points in November\"! Nomura \"also adds 75 in December\", and the peak increases to 5.25-5.50%!</b></p><p>Wall Street has begun betting that the Federal Reserve will be \"eagle without end\". According to the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Forecasts (SEP) released last week, most FOMC members believe a fourth 75 basis point rate hike is appropriate.</p><p>The market followed suit, continuing to upgrade its forecast for the Federal Funds rate peak, and now believes that the peak interest rate will rise to around 4.80% in April next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ee131dbe91412912d1a333e9c442ca6\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wall Street's predictions are more \"bold\". After accurately predicting (in line with Fed officials) that the peak interest rate will reach 4.6% next year, Nomura even continued to overweight, betting that the interest rate level will rise to 5.25%-5.50% in March next year.</p><p><b>\"Let the bullets fly a little longer\"</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The Fed is expected to deliver its fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points at its November meeting, followed by a rate hike of 50 basis points in December. By the end of this year, Federal Funds rate's target range will reach 4.25%-4.5%.</p><p>However, by the end of the FOMC meeting in February 2023,<b>UBS believes that the effect of cumulative policy adjustment will be more obvious, when the FOMC will suspend rate hike and evaluate the implemented tightening policies.</b></p><p>With the upward revision of the magnitude of the rate hike, the FOMC's forecast for the Federal Funds rate peak was raised to 4.6%. UBS believes that,<b>The rate remains in this restrictive range thereafter and will be enough to bring inflation back to its target of 2.0%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a128429c9b0601505c7b562fe2bdce4\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>UBS's forecast of a \"sharp rate hike\" is consistent with Powell's strong will to tighten policy: He wants to set rates that will make real rates positive across the curve, and there is more evidence that inflation is slowing and the labor market is slowing. As the market expected, Powell and other FOMC members largely maintained the hawkish signal released at the Jackson Hole meeting.</p><p>The SEP's forecast for economic growth has been slashed, with the unemployment rate expected to peak at 4.4% in 2023 and 2024 before falling to 4.3% in 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c9068e45d0fe7208cdbfb59da32ef98\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>However, UBS believes that the labor market will not necessarily slow down to a large extent. Given the slow volatile trend of the labor market, it will not be easy to push the unemployment rate up, and it is likely that a certain number of jobs will need to be completely reduced to reach the median unemployment rate assumed by the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>An important risk to further policy tightening and a hard landing is that Powell continues to use \"job openings\" as a measure of labor market strength, UBS said. Before the financial crisis, as the labor market was about to contract and enter recession territory, the job vacancy rate remained near or reached the cycle peak.<b>As a backward looking indicator (backward looking indicator), over-reliance on job vacancy rates may cause the Fed to miss an important turning point in labor market changes.</b></p><p>Nomura's bet is \"overweight\"</p><p>Last week, Nomura predicted before the FOMC meeting that the peak Federal Funds rate would rise to 4.6% next year, in line with the median interest rate expectation of Fed officials.</p><p>And on Friday night, Nomura's U.S. economic research team even put its opinion on the peak interest rate of the Federal Reserve<b>The forecast was raised to 5.25%-5.50%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6e85b0eba1ccea0ed81c1576fdc5b9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>They argue that there is growing evidence that short-term neutral rates have risen when:<b>1) a more accommodative financial environment than expected; 2) a resilient labor market; 3) Still high inflation. This suggests that the nominal neutral rate could be much higher than 2%-2.5%:</b></p><p><b>As a result, we have raised our peak rate forecast by 75 basis points to 5.25%-5.50% and now expect 75 basis points in rate hike in November and December this year, followed by 50 basis points in rate hike in February next year and 25 basis points in rate hike in March.</b>The higher neutral interest rate means that the Fed's current monetary policy stance is more accommodative than Nomura previously estimated, and the risk of a recession being delayed until the first quarter of 2023 is greater. Nomura predicts that,<b>Starting in September 2023, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at an initial rate of 25 basis points per meeting; By the second quarter of 2024, the rate cuts will accelerate to 50 basis points per meeting.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d66dffa7ffb5fe3cd97210d2bac273\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>By then, the risk of a rebound in inflation is reduced, the policy rate at the end of 2024 will be 1.125%, and the unemployment rate will peak at around 6%.</p><p>Nomura warned that the spread between the U.S. and the rest of the world is widening, with U.S. real interest rates and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>All rose to multi-year highs. This tightening of financial conditions will deal a severe blow to risky assets.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Continue 75 basis points in November? Wall Street rate hike Expectations Burst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nContinue 75 basis points in November? Wall Street rate hike Expectations Burst\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-27 13:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Rate hike was followed by interest rate cuts. Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at an initial rate of 25 basis points per meeting starting in September 2023; By the second quarter of 2024, the rate cuts will accelerate to 50 basis points per meeting.</b><b>Wall Street rate hike is expected to burst: UBS \"continues to 75 basis points in November\"! Nomura \"also adds 75 in December\", and the peak increases to 5.25-5.50%!</b></p><p>Wall Street has begun betting that the Federal Reserve will be \"eagle without end\". According to the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Forecasts (SEP) released last week, most FOMC members believe a fourth 75 basis point rate hike is appropriate.</p><p>The market followed suit, continuing to upgrade its forecast for the Federal Funds rate peak, and now believes that the peak interest rate will rise to around 4.80% in April next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ee131dbe91412912d1a333e9c442ca6\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wall Street's predictions are more \"bold\". After accurately predicting (in line with Fed officials) that the peak interest rate will reach 4.6% next year, Nomura even continued to overweight, betting that the interest rate level will rise to 5.25%-5.50% in March next year.</p><p><b>\"Let the bullets fly a little longer\"</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>The Fed is expected to deliver its fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points at its November meeting, followed by a rate hike of 50 basis points in December. By the end of this year, Federal Funds rate's target range will reach 4.25%-4.5%.</p><p>However, by the end of the FOMC meeting in February 2023,<b>UBS believes that the effect of cumulative policy adjustment will be more obvious, when the FOMC will suspend rate hike and evaluate the implemented tightening policies.</b></p><p>With the upward revision of the magnitude of the rate hike, the FOMC's forecast for the Federal Funds rate peak was raised to 4.6%. UBS believes that,<b>The rate remains in this restrictive range thereafter and will be enough to bring inflation back to its target of 2.0%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a128429c9b0601505c7b562fe2bdce4\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>UBS's forecast of a \"sharp rate hike\" is consistent with Powell's strong will to tighten policy: He wants to set rates that will make real rates positive across the curve, and there is more evidence that inflation is slowing and the labor market is slowing. As the market expected, Powell and other FOMC members largely maintained the hawkish signal released at the Jackson Hole meeting.</p><p>The SEP's forecast for economic growth has been slashed, with the unemployment rate expected to peak at 4.4% in 2023 and 2024 before falling to 4.3% in 2025.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c9068e45d0fe7208cdbfb59da32ef98\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>However, UBS believes that the labor market will not necessarily slow down to a large extent. Given the slow volatile trend of the labor market, it will not be easy to push the unemployment rate up, and it is likely that a certain number of jobs will need to be completely reduced to reach the median unemployment rate assumed by the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>An important risk to further policy tightening and a hard landing is that Powell continues to use \"job openings\" as a measure of labor market strength, UBS said. Before the financial crisis, as the labor market was about to contract and enter recession territory, the job vacancy rate remained near or reached the cycle peak.<b>As a backward looking indicator (backward looking indicator), over-reliance on job vacancy rates may cause the Fed to miss an important turning point in labor market changes.</b></p><p>Nomura's bet is \"overweight\"</p><p>Last week, Nomura predicted before the FOMC meeting that the peak Federal Funds rate would rise to 4.6% next year, in line with the median interest rate expectation of Fed officials.</p><p>And on Friday night, Nomura's U.S. economic research team even put its opinion on the peak interest rate of the Federal Reserve<b>The forecast was raised to 5.25%-5.50%.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa6e85b0eba1ccea0ed81c1576fdc5b9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>They argue that there is growing evidence that short-term neutral rates have risen when:<b>1) a more accommodative financial environment than expected; 2) a resilient labor market; 3) Still high inflation. This suggests that the nominal neutral rate could be much higher than 2%-2.5%:</b></p><p><b>As a result, we have raised our peak rate forecast by 75 basis points to 5.25%-5.50% and now expect 75 basis points in rate hike in November and December this year, followed by 50 basis points in rate hike in February next year and 25 basis points in rate hike in March.</b>The higher neutral interest rate means that the Fed's current monetary policy stance is more accommodative than Nomura previously estimated, and the risk of a recession being delayed until the first quarter of 2023 is greater. Nomura predicts that,<b>Starting in September 2023, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at an initial rate of 25 basis points per meeting; By the second quarter of 2024, the rate cuts will accelerate to 50 basis points per meeting.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d66dffa7ffb5fe3cd97210d2bac273\" tg-width=\"1014\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>By then, the risk of a rebound in inflation is reduced, the policy rate at the end of 2024 will be 1.125%, and the unemployment rate will peak at around 6%.</p><p>Nomura warned that the spread between the U.S. and the rest of the world is widening, with U.S. real interest rates and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">The US Dollar Index</a>All rose to multi-year highs. This tightening of financial conditions will deal a severe blow to risky assets.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671269\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1919503fa977869f2aed6254242da69d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671269","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270299946","content_text":"加息之后是降息。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。华尔街加息预期爆棚：瑞银“11月继续75基点”！野村“12月也加75”，峰值加到5.25-5.50%！华尔街纷纷开始押注，美联储将“鹰无止境”。根据美联储上周发布的经济预测摘要（SEP），大多数FOMC成员认为第四次75个基点的加息是适当的。市场紧随其后，继续上调了对联邦基金利率峰值的预测，现在认为利率峰值将在明年4月升至4.80%左右的水平。华尔街的预测更为“大胆”。在准确预测（与联储官员一致）利率峰值将在明年达到4.6%的水平后，野村甚至继续加码，押注该利率水平将在明年3月升至5.25%-5.50%。“让子弹再飞一会儿”瑞银预计，美联储将在11月的会议上连续第四次加息75个基点，随后在12月加息50个基点。到今年年底，联邦基金利率的目标区间将达到4.25%-4.5%。然而，到2023年2月的FOMC会议结束时，瑞银认为政策累积调整的效果将更加明显，届时FOMC将暂停加息并评估已实施的紧缩政策。随着对加息幅度的上调，FOMC对联邦基金利率峰值的预测上调至4.6%。瑞银认为，该利率此后保持在这一限制性区间，将足以使通胀回到2.0%的目标。瑞银“大幅加息”的预测与鲍威尔收紧政策的强烈意愿一致：他希望设定的利率能够使整个曲线的实际利率都为正，并有更多的证据表明通货胀正在放缓，劳动力市场正在放缓。如市场预期的那样，鲍威尔和FOMC其他成员基本维持了杰克逊霍尔会议上释放的鹰派信号。SEP对经济增长的预期大幅下调，失业率预计将在2023年和2024年达到4.4%的峰值，然后在2025年下降到4.3%。但瑞银认为，劳动力市场并不一定会有较大程度的放缓。鉴于劳动力市场缓慢的波动趋势，推动失业率上升并不容易，很可能需要完全减少一定数量工作岗位，才能达到美联储所假设的失业率中值水平。瑞银表示，进一步收紧政策和硬着陆的一个重要风险是，鲍威尔继续将“职位空缺”作为衡量劳动力市场实力的指标。在金融危机之前，由于劳动力市场即将收缩并步入衰退区间，职位空缺率保持在周期峰值附近或达到周期峰值。作为一个后顾性指标（backward looking indicator，追溯历史数据），过度依赖职位空缺率可能会导致美联储错过劳动力市场变动的重要转折点。野村的押注“加码”了上周，野村在FOMC会议前就预测联邦基金利率峰值将在明年上升至4.6%的水平，与联储官员的利率预期中值一致。而在上周五晚上，野村美国经济研究团队甚至将其对美联储利率峰值的预测上调至5.25%-5.50%。他们认为，越来越多的证据表明，短期中性利率在以下情况下已经上升：1）比预期更宽松的金融环境；2）有弹性的劳动力市场；3）仍然居高不下的通胀。这表明名义中性利率可能远高于2%-2.5%：因此，我们将利率峰值预测上调75个基点至5.25%-5.50%，现在预计今年11月和12月加息75个基点，随后在明年2月加息50个基点，3月加息25个基点。较高的中性利率意味着美联储当前的货币政策立场比野村之前预估的更为宽松，经济衰退推迟到2023年第一季度的风险更大。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。届时通胀反弹的风险降低，2024年底的政策利率将为1.125%，失业率峰值在6%左右。野村警告称，美国与世界其他地区的利差在不断扩大，美国实际利率和美元指数都升至多年来的高点。这种金融条件的收紧，将对风险资产造成严重打击。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004818518,"gmtCreate":1642553217796,"gmtModify":1676533721875,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c4d88ad3b23ae071da28eeed3563dd37","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ONE\">$精锐教育(ONE)$</a>25 in 1 ？","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ONE\">$精锐教育(ONE)$</a>25 in 1 ？","text":"$精锐教育(ONE)$25 in 1 ？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004818518","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}