钱包君你要振作起来 personal page - To The Moon

钱包君你要振作起来

钱包君你要振作起来

钱包大人你不能再瘦下去了

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-12

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Reminder: U.S. stocks open 1 hour ahead of schedule when they enter daylight saving time from March 12th

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-10

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@Envision Research:[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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Xiaomo: Powell's suppression of S&P 500, falling below 3900 will cause selling pressure to accelerate

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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Xiaomo: Powell's suppression of S&P 500, falling below 3900 will cause selling pressure to accelerate

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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A 192% surge from the previous month! Global central banks continue to grab gold in January

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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Powell has no choice but to 'beat inflation with recession'

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Why is the Federal Reserve the key to A shares again? Can the Chinese market step out of the independent market

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Non-farm has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will it "add another sum" on Friday?

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Market news: U.S. safety watchdog is investigating possible Tesla steering wheel detachment

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Market news: U.S. safety watchdog is investigating possible Tesla steering wheel detachment

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Lei Jun's New Story

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-04

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-02

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Best Buy Q4 Revenue Down 10% Y/Y, FY 2024 Guidance Misses Estimates

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-01

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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13:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: U.S. stocks open 1 hour ahead of schedule when they enter daylight saving time from March 12th","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120362149","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国2023年夏令时将于2023年3月12日美东时间02：00开始，至2023年11月5日美东时间02：00终止。届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Summer Time 2023 will begin at 02:00 EST on March 12, 2023 and end at 02:00 EST on November 5, 2023. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the US stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, from 21: 30 from Monday to Friday to 04: 00 the next day; March 13th is the first trading day of U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>US Eastern Time: 09:30~16:00 (not closed at noon); Beijing time: 21: 30~04: 00 the next day</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04: 00~09: 30; Beijing Time: 16:00~21:30</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00~20:00; Beijing Time: 04: 00~08: 00</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. stocks open 1 hour ahead of schedule when they enter daylight saving time from March 12th</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. stocks open 1 hour ahead of schedule when they enter daylight saving time from March 12th\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-06 13:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>U.S. Summer Time 2023 will begin at 02:00 EST on March 12, 2023 and end at 02:00 EST on November 5, 2023. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the US stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, from 21: 30 from Monday to Friday to 04: 00 the next day; March 13th is the first trading day of U.S. stocks after entering daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>US Eastern Time: 09:30~16:00 (not closed at noon); Beijing time: 21: 30~04: 00 the next day</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 04: 00~09: 30; Beijing Time: 16:00~21:30</p><p><b>After-hours trading hours</b></p><p>EST: 16:00~20:00; Beijing Time: 04: 00~08: 00</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday in March to the first Sunday in November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday in November to the second Sunday in March each year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120362149","content_text":"美国2023年夏令时将于2023年3月12日美东时间02：00开始，至2023年11月5日美东时间02：00终止。届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00；3月13日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。交易时间美国东部时间：09：30~16：00 (午间不休市)；北京时间：21：30~次日04：00盘前交易时间美国东部时间：04：00~09：30；北京时间：16：00~21:30盘后交易时间美国东部时间：16：00~20：00；北京时间：04：00~08：00（注：夏令时为每年3月的第二个星期日至11月的第一个星期日，冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949171377,"gmtCreate":1678460041199,"gmtModify":1678460045037,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949171377","repostId":"9949328649","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949328649,"gmtCreate":1678377533582,"gmtModify":1678378068478,"author":{"id":"4124253684228252","authorId":"4124253684228252","name":"Envision Research","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5fb35ced789c59ffb4c3d0600289d984","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4124253684228252","idStr":"4124253684228252"},"themes":[],"title":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds ","htmlText":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","listText":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","text":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec1383b799fd10fca73734e18af27f43","width":"975","height":"482"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949328649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315570,"gmtCreate":1678362711390,"gmtModify":1678362713241,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315570","repostId":"1155614396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155614396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678355356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155614396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 17:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Xiaomo: Powell's suppression of S&P 500, falling below 3900 will cause selling pressure to accelerate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155614396","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Xiao Mo released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an accelerated selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 once again tested the level around 3900 after falling below the resistance level of 4060-4089.</b>We think,<b>A drop below 3900 could cause selling pressure to accelerate</b>, as the point has been the fork point of the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>We see 3760-3764 as the preliminary target range after falling below 3900.</b></p><p>Our basic forecast is,<b>The 1H23 S&P 500 will once again test the October 2022 low of 3,500 to bottom out the cycle, depending in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has bottomed out in September 2022.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations letting the yield curve break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms in the future. Therefore, we believe that,<b>The likelihood of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 has increased.</b></p><p>Although it has recently declined,<b>But compared to the curve shape of money markets (based on terminal rate expectations and rate cuts within 24 months of reaching terminal rates), the S&P 500 remains overvalued by 5%.</b>The remainder of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model roughly matches the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan, especially in the months after inflation spiked in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, due to the weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other conditions held constant, additional downward pressure is expected in the stock market.</b></p><p><b>Futures copper risks falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to successfully break in the first quarter of 2023,<b>A break below this support level could lead not only to significant liquidations, but also to a general deterioration in sentiment in risky markets</b>, because copper is often seen as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in several risky markets are threatened to break below again, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on Feb. 10 and 4089 on Feb. 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3,900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, and there are two often-mentioned CTA trigger points nearby (3-month and 6-month trend momentum). Separately, the area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement from the October-February rally, the internal trendline containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3900 inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, during which it has either served as a level of support or resistance (see the dashed blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the 3491-point low in October 2022, and the repeated failure of our bullish 4100-point resistance zone in the first few months of 2023, leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a contrarian rally in a sustained bear market. In our view, a break below the 3888-3971 support level would not only verify this assessment, but suspect it would accelerate the downside, possibly starting with a drop to the December low of 3764 and October's 61.8% Fibonacci pullback line of 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include a low of 3,698 on Nov. 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and plenty of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe that a low in a certain cycle in 1H23 could retest that support level. However, after a series of better-than-expected economic data, the Fed's hawkish expectations increased the probability of a risk scenario, and the S&P 500 slipped toward support near 3200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the idea that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has already bottomed in September 2022 when it was reduced by 30 basis points. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle below).<b>The latest bear market flattened was at the September low, and the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart when the curve bottoms out in the coming weeks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>News that is bad for economic growth may not be good for the stock market in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will ultimately put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we recently pointed out, the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued compared to the movement of the money market curve (see Chart 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, using the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate reduction magnitude 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate as independent variables,<b>The index is now over 5% overvalued, more than 1.5 standard deviations above the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index looks to be in line with the remaining S&P 500 price movements during the study period, particularly in the months after the inflation data actually picked up in the middle of last year (see chart 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term, the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations could cause the S&P 500 to edge lower because the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model incorporating all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a dovish 65 basis point pivot) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the surge in the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index in January-February pullback/retracement, coinciding with a hawkish pivot in policy expectations, would have the S&P 500 valued at 3,875.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also start to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk-averse trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets associated with China's reopening and rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have focused on futures copper recently, as copper is often seen as a bellwether of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Industrial metals futures markets are approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakout point, the 61.8% Fibonacci pullback in January, the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback in July, and the January-February band target level (see chart below).<b>Breaking below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt increased liquidation, but will also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4'22, potentially worsening sentiment in high-risk markets in general.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomo: Powell's suppression of S&P 500, falling below 3900 will cause selling pressure to accelerate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomo: Powell's suppression of S&P 500, falling below 3900 will cause selling pressure to accelerate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 17:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Xiao Mo released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an accelerated selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 once again tested the level around 3900 after falling below the resistance level of 4060-4089.</b>We think,<b>A drop below 3900 could cause selling pressure to accelerate</b>, as the point has been the fork point of the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>We see 3760-3764 as the preliminary target range after falling below 3900.</b></p><p>Our basic forecast is,<b>The 1H23 S&P 500 will once again test the October 2022 low of 3,500 to bottom out the cycle, depending in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has bottomed out in September 2022.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations letting the yield curve break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms in the future. Therefore, we believe that,<b>The likelihood of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 has increased.</b></p><p>Although it has recently declined,<b>But compared to the curve shape of money markets (based on terminal rate expectations and rate cuts within 24 months of reaching terminal rates), the S&P 500 remains overvalued by 5%.</b>The remainder of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model roughly matches the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan, especially in the months after inflation spiked in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, due to the weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other conditions held constant, additional downward pressure is expected in the stock market.</b></p><p><b>Futures copper risks falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to successfully break in the first quarter of 2023,<b>A break below this support level could lead not only to significant liquidations, but also to a general deterioration in sentiment in risky markets</b>, because copper is often seen as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in several risky markets are threatened to break below again, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on Feb. 10 and 4089 on Feb. 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3,900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, and there are two often-mentioned CTA trigger points nearby (3-month and 6-month trend momentum). Separately, the area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement from the October-February rally, the internal trendline containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3900 inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, during which it has either served as a level of support or resistance (see the dashed blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the 3491-point low in October 2022, and the repeated failure of our bullish 4100-point resistance zone in the first few months of 2023, leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a contrarian rally in a sustained bear market. In our view, a break below the 3888-3971 support level would not only verify this assessment, but suspect it would accelerate the downside, possibly starting with a drop to the December low of 3764 and October's 61.8% Fibonacci pullback line of 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include a low of 3,698 on Nov. 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and plenty of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe that a low in a certain cycle in 1H23 could retest that support level. However, after a series of better-than-expected economic data, the Fed's hawkish expectations increased the probability of a risk scenario, and the S&P 500 slipped toward support near 3200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the idea that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has already bottomed in September 2022 when it was reduced by 30 basis points. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle below).<b>The latest bear market flattened was at the September low, and the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart when the curve bottoms out in the coming weeks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>News that is bad for economic growth may not be good for the stock market in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will ultimately put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we recently pointed out, the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued compared to the movement of the money market curve (see Chart 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, using the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate reduction magnitude 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate as independent variables,<b>The index is now over 5% overvalued, more than 1.5 standard deviations above the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index looks to be in line with the remaining S&P 500 price movements during the study period, particularly in the months after the inflation data actually picked up in the middle of last year (see chart 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term, the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations could cause the S&P 500 to edge lower because the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model incorporating all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a dovish 65 basis point pivot) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the surge in the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index in January-February pullback/retracement, coinciding with a hawkish pivot in policy expectations, would have the S&P 500 valued at 3,875.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also start to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk-averse trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets associated with China's reopening and rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have focused on futures copper recently, as copper is often seen as a bellwether of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Industrial metals futures markets are approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakout point, the 61.8% Fibonacci pullback in January, the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback in July, and the January-February band target level (see chart below).<b>Breaking below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt increased liquidation, but will also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4'22, potentially worsening sentiment in high-risk markets in general.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155614396","content_text":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900点附近水平。我行认为，跌破3900点可能会导致抛压加速，因为自2022年5月以来，该点一直是标普500的分叉点，目前还与基于动量策略的几个趋势跟踪触发水平保持一致。我行将3760-3764点视为跌破3900点后的初步目标区间。我行的基本情况预测是，23年上半年标普500指数将再次测试2022年10月3500点的低点，为该周期筑底，这在一定程度上取决于5年期/10年期美债收益率曲线已在2022年9月触底的事实。在20世纪70年代供给受限时期，宏观环境受一系列通胀冲击主导时，股市与国债收益率曲线呈正相关，并在收益率曲线建立周期低点后的1-5个月内触底。随着最近鹰派预期让收益率曲线突破2022年9月低点，未来每当曲线触底，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。因此，我行认为，标普500指数进一步下滑至3200点附近的下一支撑位并在2023年上半年触底的可能性有所增加。虽然最近有所回落，但跟货币市场的曲线形状相比（基于终端利率预期和在达到终端利率后24个月内的降息幅度），标普500指数仍然过高，高估达5%。该回归模型得出的标普500指数其余的表现与摩根大通编制的美国经济活动意外指数大致相符，尤其是在2022年年中通胀飙升后的几个月。短期内，受经济数据疲软影响，股市恐怕难以提振。事实上，该模型显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，股市还会出现额外的下行压力。期货铜有跌破386-396关键支撑位的风险。我们认为，2023年一季度行情未能成功上破，如果跌破该支撑位，可能不仅会导致大量平仓，还可能导致高风险市场情绪普遍恶化，因为铜通常被视为全球制造业需求晴雨表。多个风险市场的关键支撑位再度面临跌破威胁，包括标普500指数在跌破2月10日4060点和2月17日4089点的阻力位后，鲍威尔的鹰派言论使标普500指数滑向3900点的关键汇合点附近（见下图）。标普500指数的50日、100日和200日均线都在该点附近汇聚，附近还有两个经常被提及的CTA触发点位（3个月和6个月趋势动量）。另外，该区域还包括10月至2月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤，包含2022年熊市反弹的内部趋势线，以及3900点拐点。自2022年5月以来，3900点就成为该指数的一个分叉点，在此期间要么作为支撑位，要么是阻力位（见下图蓝色虚线）。从模式角度来看，从2022年10月3491点低点上涨的震荡性质，以及2023年前几个月我们看好的4100点阻力区反复失效，这使我们相信，反弹只是持续熊市中的逆势上涨。在我们看来，跌破3888-3971点支撑位不仅会验证这一评估，而且怀疑其会使下行加速，首先可能会跌至12月3764低点和10月的61.8%斐波那契回调线3760点。其他中期支撑位包括11月3日的3698点低点，10月78.6%回调点的3642点，以及去年秋季支撑市场的3500点附近大量的长线点位。在我们2023年的展望中，我们认为23年上半年某个周期的低点可能会重新测试该支撑位。然而，在一系列好于预期的经济数据公布后，美联储的鹰派预期增加了风险情形出现的概率，在筑底之前，标普500指数滑向3200附近的支撑位。更乐观的前景在一定程度上依赖于这样一种观点，即5年期/10年期国债收益率曲线已经在2022年9月降低30基点时筑底。在20世纪60年代末到70年代末的供给侧受限和反复通胀冲击期间，股市与收益率曲线成正相关，并在曲线见底后的1-5个月内见底（见下图绿色圈的价格走势）。最近一次熊市趋平是在9月的低点，未来几周，曲线触底时，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。对经济增长不利的消息，短期内未必对股市有利短期内，鹰派预期最终也会对股价走势构成压力。正如我们最近指出，与货币市场曲线的走势相比，标普500指数的价值似乎被高估了（见下图1）。在18个月的回归模型中，使用终端利率预期和达到终端利率后24个月的降息幅度作为自变量，该指数现在被高估了5%以上，与研究期间的剩余价格表现相比，高出了1.5个标准差以上。摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数看起来与研究期间的标普500指数剩余价格走势一致，特别是在去年年中通胀数据真正回升后的几个月中（见下图2）。在此期间，经济活动意外指数几乎能解释剩余股票指数的一半表现。这些回归模型表明，由于短期内经济数据弱于预期，美联储政策利率预期的正常化可能导致标普500指数小幅走低，因为该指数的过度剩余丰富性比市场根据历史敏感性向较低终端利率的调整更为极端。换句话说，纳入所有这些因素的12个月回归模型表明，假设终端利率为5%（向鸽派65个基点转向），之后降息200个基点（与当前定价相差不远），摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数1-2月的飙升回撤，与政策预期的鹰派转向同时发生，标准普尔500指数的价值会为3875点。最后，正如我们上次指出，全球其他市场也位于关键技术位之上，如果随着标普500指数跌破3900点，这些市场也开始跌破各自关键技术位，就有可能触发投资者避险趋势。具体来说，许多与中国重新开放和市场活动反弹相关的市场正在接近1月的突破区间，某些情况下，移动平均线的震荡频率变小。我们最近重点关注期货铜，因为铜经常被视为全球制造业需求的风向标。工业金属期货市场正接近400点以下的关键支撑位，包括第四季度区间高点/1月突破点位、1月61.8%斐波那契回调、7月38.2%斐波那契回调和1-2月等波段目标位（见下图）。跌破这一明显的拐点不仅会促使平仓增加，而且无法维持22年第四季度的行情突破，可能使高风险市场情绪普遍恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315213,"gmtCreate":1678362705733,"gmtModify":1678362709450,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315213","repostId":"1155614396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155614396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678355356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155614396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 17:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Xiaomo: Powell's suppression of S&P 500, falling below 3900 will cause selling pressure to accelerate","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155614396","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Xiao Mo released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an accelerated selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 once again tested the level around 3900 after falling below the resistance level of 4060-4089.</b>We think,<b>A drop below 3900 could cause selling pressure to accelerate</b>, as the point has been the fork point of the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>We see 3760-3764 as the preliminary target range after falling below 3900.</b></p><p>Our basic forecast is,<b>The 1H23 S&P 500 will once again test the October 2022 low of 3,500 to bottom out the cycle, depending in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has bottomed out in September 2022.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations letting the yield curve break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms in the future. Therefore, we believe that,<b>The likelihood of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 has increased.</b></p><p>Although it has recently declined,<b>But compared to the curve shape of money markets (based on terminal rate expectations and rate cuts within 24 months of reaching terminal rates), the S&P 500 remains overvalued by 5%.</b>The remainder of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model roughly matches the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan, especially in the months after inflation spiked in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, due to the weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other conditions held constant, additional downward pressure is expected in the stock market.</b></p><p><b>Futures copper risks falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to successfully break in the first quarter of 2023,<b>A break below this support level could lead not only to significant liquidations, but also to a general deterioration in sentiment in risky markets</b>, because copper is often seen as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in several risky markets are threatened to break below again, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on Feb. 10 and 4089 on Feb. 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3,900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, and there are two often-mentioned CTA trigger points nearby (3-month and 6-month trend momentum). Separately, the area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement from the October-February rally, the internal trendline containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3900 inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, during which it has either served as a level of support or resistance (see the dashed blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the 3491-point low in October 2022, and the repeated failure of our bullish 4100-point resistance zone in the first few months of 2023, leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a contrarian rally in a sustained bear market. In our view, a break below the 3888-3971 support level would not only verify this assessment, but suspect it would accelerate the downside, possibly starting with a drop to the December low of 3764 and October's 61.8% Fibonacci pullback line of 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include a low of 3,698 on Nov. 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and plenty of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe that a low in a certain cycle in 1H23 could retest that support level. However, after a series of better-than-expected economic data, the Fed's hawkish expectations increased the probability of a risk scenario, and the S&P 500 slipped toward support near 3200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the idea that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has already bottomed in September 2022 when it was reduced by 30 basis points. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle below).<b>The latest bear market flattened was at the September low, and the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart when the curve bottoms out in the coming weeks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>News that is bad for economic growth may not be good for the stock market in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will ultimately put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we recently pointed out, the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued compared to the movement of the money market curve (see Chart 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, using the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate reduction magnitude 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate as independent variables,<b>The index is now over 5% overvalued, more than 1.5 standard deviations above the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index looks to be in line with the remaining S&P 500 price movements during the study period, particularly in the months after the inflation data actually picked up in the middle of last year (see chart 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term, the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations could cause the S&P 500 to edge lower because the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model incorporating all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a dovish 65 basis point pivot) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the surge in the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index in January-February pullback/retracement, coinciding with a hawkish pivot in policy expectations, would have the S&P 500 valued at 3,875.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also start to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk-averse trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets associated with China's reopening and rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have focused on futures copper recently, as copper is often seen as a bellwether of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Industrial metals futures markets are approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakout point, the 61.8% Fibonacci pullback in January, the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback in July, and the January-February band target level (see chart below).<b>Breaking below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt increased liquidation, but will also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4'22, potentially worsening sentiment in high-risk markets in general.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Xiaomo: Powell's suppression of S&P 500, falling below 3900 will cause selling pressure to accelerate</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXiaomo: Powell's suppression of S&P 500, falling below 3900 will cause selling pressure to accelerate\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 17:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Xiao Mo released a technical analysis, pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the support level of 3,900 points, it may trigger an accelerated selling, and the index is still too high. Even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market?</b><b>The S&P 500 once again tested the level around 3900 after falling below the resistance level of 4060-4089.</b>We think,<b>A drop below 3900 could cause selling pressure to accelerate</b>, as the point has been the fork point of the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is also currently aligned with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>We see 3760-3764 as the preliminary target range after falling below 3900.</b></p><p>Our basic forecast is,<b>The 1H23 S&P 500 will once again test the October 2022 low of 3,500 to bottom out the cycle, depending in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has bottomed out in September 2022.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macro environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established its cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations letting the yield curve break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart whenever the curve bottoms in the future. Therefore, we believe that,<b>The likelihood of the S&P 500 sliding further to the next support level near 3200 and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 has increased.</b></p><p>Although it has recently declined,<b>But compared to the curve shape of money markets (based on terminal rate expectations and rate cuts within 24 months of reaching terminal rates), the S&P 500 remains overvalued by 5%.</b>The remainder of the S&P 500's performance from this regression model roughly matches the U.S. activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan, especially in the months after inflation spiked in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, due to the weak economic data, the stock market may be difficult to boost.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>Other conditions held constant, additional downward pressure is expected in the stock market.</b></p><p><b>Futures copper risks falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to successfully break in the first quarter of 2023,<b>A break below this support level could lead not only to significant liquidations, but also to a general deterioration in sentiment in risky markets</b>, because copper is often seen as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in several risky markets are threatened to break below again, including the S&P 500</b></p><p>After breaking below the resistance levels of 4060 on Feb. 10 and 4089 on Feb. 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key confluence point of 3,900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, and there are two often-mentioned CTA trigger points nearby (3-month and 6-month trend momentum). Separately, the area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement from the October-February rally, the internal trendline containing the 2022 bear market rally, and the 3900 inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 has been a bifurcation point for the index, during which it has either served as a level of support or resistance (see the dashed blue line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the 3491-point low in October 2022, and the repeated failure of our bullish 4100-point resistance zone in the first few months of 2023, leads us to believe that,<b>The rally is just a contrarian rally in a sustained bear market. In our view, a break below the 3888-3971 support level would not only verify this assessment, but suspect it would accelerate the downside, possibly starting with a drop to the December low of 3764 and October's 61.8% Fibonacci pullback line of 3760.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include a low of 3,698 on Nov. 3, 3,642 at the 78.6% pullback point in October, and plenty of long-term points near 3,500 that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe that a low in a certain cycle in 1H23 could retest that support level. However, after a series of better-than-expected economic data, the Fed's hawkish expectations increased the probability of a risk scenario, and the S&P 500 slipped toward support near 3200 before bottoming out. The more optimistic outlook relies in part on the idea that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve has already bottomed in September 2022 when it was reduced by 30 basis points. During supply-side constraints and repeated inflationary shocks from the late 1960s to the late 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see price action in the green circle below).<b>The latest bear market flattened was at the September low, and the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart when the curve bottoms out in the coming weeks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>News that is bad for economic growth may not be good for the stock market in the short term</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will ultimately put pressure on stock price movements as well.</b>As we recently pointed out, the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued compared to the movement of the money market curve (see Chart 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, using the terminal interest rate expectation and the rate reduction magnitude 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate as independent variables,<b>The index is now over 5% overvalued, more than 1.5 standard deviations above the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index looks to be in line with the remaining S&P 500 price movements during the study period, particularly in the months after the inflation data actually picked up in the middle of last year (see chart 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indexes. These regression models suggest that due to weaker-than-expected economic data in the near term, the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations could cause the S&P 500 to edge lower because the index's excessive residual richness is more extreme than the market's adjustment to lower terminal rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model incorporating all of these factors suggests that assuming a terminal rate of 5% (a dovish 65 basis point pivot) followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), the surge in the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Surprise Index in January-February pullback/retracement, coinciding with a hawkish pivot in policy expectations, would have the S&P 500 valued at 3,875.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we pointed out last time,<b>Other markets around the world are also above key technical levels. If these markets also start to fall below their respective key technical levels as the S&P 500 falls below 3,900 points, it may trigger a risk-averse trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets associated with China's reopening and rebound in market activity are approaching January's breakout range, with moving averages oscillating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have focused on futures copper recently, as copper is often seen as a bellwether of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Industrial metals futures markets are approaching key support levels below 400</b>, including the fourth quarter range high/January breakout point, the 61.8% Fibonacci pullback in January, the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback in July, and the January-February band target level (see chart below).<b>Breaking below this obvious inflection point will not only prompt increased liquidation, but will also fail to sustain the market breakthrough in Q4'22, potentially worsening sentiment in high-risk markets in general.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155614396","content_text":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900点附近水平。我行认为，跌破3900点可能会导致抛压加速，因为自2022年5月以来，该点一直是标普500的分叉点，目前还与基于动量策略的几个趋势跟踪触发水平保持一致。我行将3760-3764点视为跌破3900点后的初步目标区间。我行的基本情况预测是，23年上半年标普500指数将再次测试2022年10月3500点的低点，为该周期筑底，这在一定程度上取决于5年期/10年期美债收益率曲线已在2022年9月触底的事实。在20世纪70年代供给受限时期，宏观环境受一系列通胀冲击主导时，股市与国债收益率曲线呈正相关，并在收益率曲线建立周期低点后的1-5个月内触底。随着最近鹰派预期让收益率曲线突破2022年9月低点，未来每当曲线触底，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。因此，我行认为，标普500指数进一步下滑至3200点附近的下一支撑位并在2023年上半年触底的可能性有所增加。虽然最近有所回落，但跟货币市场的曲线形状相比（基于终端利率预期和在达到终端利率后24个月内的降息幅度），标普500指数仍然过高，高估达5%。该回归模型得出的标普500指数其余的表现与摩根大通编制的美国经济活动意外指数大致相符，尤其是在2022年年中通胀飙升后的几个月。短期内，受经济数据疲软影响，股市恐怕难以提振。事实上，该模型显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，股市还会出现额外的下行压力。期货铜有跌破386-396关键支撑位的风险。我们认为，2023年一季度行情未能成功上破，如果跌破该支撑位，可能不仅会导致大量平仓，还可能导致高风险市场情绪普遍恶化，因为铜通常被视为全球制造业需求晴雨表。多个风险市场的关键支撑位再度面临跌破威胁，包括标普500指数在跌破2月10日4060点和2月17日4089点的阻力位后，鲍威尔的鹰派言论使标普500指数滑向3900点的关键汇合点附近（见下图）。标普500指数的50日、100日和200日均线都在该点附近汇聚，附近还有两个经常被提及的CTA触发点位（3个月和6个月趋势动量）。另外，该区域还包括10月至2月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤，包含2022年熊市反弹的内部趋势线，以及3900点拐点。自2022年5月以来，3900点就成为该指数的一个分叉点，在此期间要么作为支撑位，要么是阻力位（见下图蓝色虚线）。从模式角度来看，从2022年10月3491点低点上涨的震荡性质，以及2023年前几个月我们看好的4100点阻力区反复失效，这使我们相信，反弹只是持续熊市中的逆势上涨。在我们看来，跌破3888-3971点支撑位不仅会验证这一评估，而且怀疑其会使下行加速，首先可能会跌至12月3764低点和10月的61.8%斐波那契回调线3760点。其他中期支撑位包括11月3日的3698点低点，10月78.6%回调点的3642点，以及去年秋季支撑市场的3500点附近大量的长线点位。在我们2023年的展望中，我们认为23年上半年某个周期的低点可能会重新测试该支撑位。然而，在一系列好于预期的经济数据公布后，美联储的鹰派预期增加了风险情形出现的概率，在筑底之前，标普500指数滑向3200附近的支撑位。更乐观的前景在一定程度上依赖于这样一种观点，即5年期/10年期国债收益率曲线已经在2022年9月降低30基点时筑底。在20世纪60年代末到70年代末的供给侧受限和反复通胀冲击期间，股市与收益率曲线成正相关，并在曲线见底后的1-5个月内见底（见下图绿色圈的价格走势）。最近一次熊市趋平是在9月的低点，未来几周，曲线触底时，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。对经济增长不利的消息，短期内未必对股市有利短期内，鹰派预期最终也会对股价走势构成压力。正如我们最近指出，与货币市场曲线的走势相比，标普500指数的价值似乎被高估了（见下图1）。在18个月的回归模型中，使用终端利率预期和达到终端利率后24个月的降息幅度作为自变量，该指数现在被高估了5%以上，与研究期间的剩余价格表现相比，高出了1.5个标准差以上。摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数看起来与研究期间的标普500指数剩余价格走势一致，特别是在去年年中通胀数据真正回升后的几个月中（见下图2）。在此期间，经济活动意外指数几乎能解释剩余股票指数的一半表现。这些回归模型表明，由于短期内经济数据弱于预期，美联储政策利率预期的正常化可能导致标普500指数小幅走低，因为该指数的过度剩余丰富性比市场根据历史敏感性向较低终端利率的调整更为极端。换句话说，纳入所有这些因素的12个月回归模型表明，假设终端利率为5%（向鸽派65个基点转向），之后降息200个基点（与当前定价相差不远），摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数1-2月的飙升回撤，与政策预期的鹰派转向同时发生，标准普尔500指数的价值会为3875点。最后，正如我们上次指出，全球其他市场也位于关键技术位之上，如果随着标普500指数跌破3900点，这些市场也开始跌破各自关键技术位，就有可能触发投资者避险趋势。具体来说，许多与中国重新开放和市场活动反弹相关的市场正在接近1月的突破区间，某些情况下，移动平均线的震荡频率变小。我们最近重点关注期货铜，因为铜经常被视为全球制造业需求的风向标。工业金属期货市场正接近400点以下的关键支撑位，包括第四季度区间高点/1月突破点位、1月61.8%斐波那契回调、7月38.2%斐波那契回调和1-2月等波段目标位（见下图）。跌破这一明显的拐点不仅会促使平仓增加，而且无法维持22年第四季度的行情突破，可能使高风险市场情绪普遍恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315647,"gmtCreate":1678362686090,"gmtModify":1678362689373,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315647","repostId":"1119353536","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119353536","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678357871,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119353536?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 18:31","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A 192% surge from the previous month! Global central banks continue to grab gold in January","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119353536","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"它才是真正的资产。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>After setting a record for net gold purchases last year, central banks around the world have not dampened their enthusiasm in the slightest, renewing a frenzy of gold hoarding.</p><p>The latest figures compiled by the World Gold Council show that global central banks' net gold reserves increased by 77 tonnes in January,<b>That surged 192% from December last year</b>, exceeding the 20-60t range of consecutive net buys over the past 10 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7637288dbe6d5d30b0bf80396b89ae45\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Among them, the largest gold buyer throughout 2022 and in January this year, the Central Bank of Turkey, once again bought 23 tons of gold. The central bank of Turkey currently holds 565 tons of gold.</b></p><p>Turkey has been struggling with rampant inflation: last October, it accelerated its surge to 85%. The Turkish lira lost nearly 30% of its value last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira is up 40% year-on-year.</p><p>China's gold reserves increased by another 14.9 tonnes in January after adding 62 tonnes between November and December 2022. The overweight of gold during this period last year was the first overweight by the People's Bank of China in more than three years.</p><p>The European Central Bank reported that gold holdings increased by nearly 2 tonnes in January. The World Gold Council said it was related to Croatia's entry into the euro zone. Kazakhstan's central bank slightly increased its holdings by 3.9 tonnes of gold in January after selling more than 30 tonnes of its gold reserves in November and December last year.</p><p>The Bank of Singapore announced it bought 45 tonnes of gold in January, up 29% from the previous month. It was only then that the World Gold Council revised the initial report of 31 tons to the current 77 tons. The Bank of Singapore's current gold holdings increased from 153.8 tonnes to 198.4 tonnes.</p><p><b>The only country to reduce its gold holdings in January was Uzbekistan, which reduced its gold reserves by 12 tonnes.</b></p><p>The World Gold Council expects central banks to continue buying gold this year, but the rate of purchases may not reach the record levels seen in 2022:</p><p><b>Looking ahead, we see no reason to doubt that central banks will remain positive about gold and continue to be net buyers of gold in 2023.</b>However, as we said at the beginning of 2022, it is difficult to predict how much will be purchased. But there is also reason to believe that central bank demand in 2023 may struggle to reach last year's levels. In 2022, the total purchase of gold by central banks was 1,136 tons, the highest net purchase since records began in 1950, and broke the record for net purchases of the US dollar decoupled from gold in 1971. It was also the 13th consecutive year that global central banks bought net gold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22b563b734c093204730cb31f24960e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The World Gold Council said,<b>There are two main driving factors for the central bank's purchase of gold: one is the hedging role of gold in times of crisis, and the other is the role of gold as a long-term storage of value (against inflation). So it's no surprise that central banks have chosen to accelerate their holdings of gold in a year of high geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation.</b></p><p>Juan Carlos Artigas, head of global research at the World Gold Council, told the media that the large-scale purchases highlighted the fact that gold remains an important asset in the global monetary system: \"Although gold no longer endorses any currency, it is still being used. Why? Because it is the real asset.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A 192% surge from the previous month! Global central banks continue to grab gold in January</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA 192% surge from the previous month! Global central banks continue to grab gold in January\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 18:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>After setting a record for net gold purchases last year, central banks around the world have not dampened their enthusiasm in the slightest, renewing a frenzy of gold hoarding.</p><p>The latest figures compiled by the World Gold Council show that global central banks' net gold reserves increased by 77 tonnes in January,<b>That surged 192% from December last year</b>, exceeding the 20-60t range of consecutive net buys over the past 10 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7637288dbe6d5d30b0bf80396b89ae45\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Among them, the largest gold buyer throughout 2022 and in January this year, the Central Bank of Turkey, once again bought 23 tons of gold. The central bank of Turkey currently holds 565 tons of gold.</b></p><p>Turkey has been struggling with rampant inflation: last October, it accelerated its surge to 85%. The Turkish lira lost nearly 30% of its value last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira is up 40% year-on-year.</p><p>China's gold reserves increased by another 14.9 tonnes in January after adding 62 tonnes between November and December 2022. The overweight of gold during this period last year was the first overweight by the People's Bank of China in more than three years.</p><p>The European Central Bank reported that gold holdings increased by nearly 2 tonnes in January. The World Gold Council said it was related to Croatia's entry into the euro zone. Kazakhstan's central bank slightly increased its holdings by 3.9 tonnes of gold in January after selling more than 30 tonnes of its gold reserves in November and December last year.</p><p>The Bank of Singapore announced it bought 45 tonnes of gold in January, up 29% from the previous month. It was only then that the World Gold Council revised the initial report of 31 tons to the current 77 tons. The Bank of Singapore's current gold holdings increased from 153.8 tonnes to 198.4 tonnes.</p><p><b>The only country to reduce its gold holdings in January was Uzbekistan, which reduced its gold reserves by 12 tonnes.</b></p><p>The World Gold Council expects central banks to continue buying gold this year, but the rate of purchases may not reach the record levels seen in 2022:</p><p><b>Looking ahead, we see no reason to doubt that central banks will remain positive about gold and continue to be net buyers of gold in 2023.</b>However, as we said at the beginning of 2022, it is difficult to predict how much will be purchased. But there is also reason to believe that central bank demand in 2023 may struggle to reach last year's levels. In 2022, the total purchase of gold by central banks was 1,136 tons, the highest net purchase since records began in 1950, and broke the record for net purchases of the US dollar decoupled from gold in 1971. It was also the 13th consecutive year that global central banks bought net gold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22b563b734c093204730cb31f24960e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The World Gold Council said,<b>There are two main driving factors for the central bank's purchase of gold: one is the hedging role of gold in times of crisis, and the other is the role of gold as a long-term storage of value (against inflation). So it's no surprise that central banks have chosen to accelerate their holdings of gold in a year of high geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation.</b></p><p>Juan Carlos Artigas, head of global research at the World Gold Council, told the media that the large-scale purchases highlighted the fact that gold remains an important asset in the global monetary system: \"Although gold no longer endorses any currency, it is still being used. Why? Because it is the real asset.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683669\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a0a20c59d08f59a8429d9a61eb959c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683669","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119353536","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳在去年创下黄金净购买量的纪录后，全球央行丝毫没有消减他们的热情，再度掀起了疯狂囤积黄金的热潮。世界黄金协会汇编的最新数据显示，今年1月，全球央行的黄金净储备增加了77吨，较去年12月环比暴增了192%，超过了过去10个月连续净买入的20-60吨范围内。其中，整个2022年和今年1月最大的黄金买家——土耳其央行，再次购买了23吨黄金。土耳其央行目前持有565吨黄金。土耳其一直在与猖獗的通胀作斗争：去年10月，土耳其的通胀率加速飙升至85%。土耳其里拉去年贬值了近30%。与此同时，以里拉计算的黄金价格同比上涨了40%。中国的黄金储备在2022年11月至12月期间增加62吨后，1月份再增加了14.9吨。去年这段时间的黄金增持是中国人民银行三年多来的首次增持。欧洲央行报告称，1月份黄金持有量增加了近2吨。世界黄金协会表示，这与克罗地亚加入欧元区有关。哈萨克斯坦央行在去年11月和12月卖出超过30吨黄金储备后，1月份小幅增持了3.9吨黄金。新加坡央行宣布1月购买了45吨黄金，环比增长了29%。随后世界黄金协会才将最初报告的31吨修正到目前的77吨。新加坡央行目前的黄金持有量从153.8吨增加到了198.4吨。1月份唯一减持黄金的国家是乌兹别克斯坦，其黄金储备减少了12吨。世界黄金协会预计，各国央行今年将继续购买黄金，但购买率可能不会达到2022年的创纪录水平：展望未来，我们认为没有理由怀疑各国央行将对黄金保持积极态度，并在2023年继续成为黄金的净买家。然而，正如我们在2022年初说的那样，很难预测购买量有多少。但我们也有理由相信，2023年的央行需求可能难以达到去年的水平。2022年央行黄金的总购买量为1136吨，这是自1950年有记录以来的最高净购买量，并打破了1971年美元跟黄金脱钩的净购买量记录，也是全球央行连续第13年净买入黄金。世界黄金协会表示，央行购买黄金的主要驱动因素有两个：一是黄金在危机时期的避险作用，二是黄金作为长期价值储存手段（对抗通胀）的作用。因此，在地缘政治高度不确定和通胀猖獗的一年里，各国央行选择加速增持黄金也就不足为奇了。世界黄金协会全球研究主管 Juan Carlos Artigas 向媒体表示，大规模购买突显了黄金仍然是全球货币体系中的重要资产这一事实：“尽管黄金不再为任何货币背书，但它仍在被使用。为什么？因为它才是真正的资产。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GC2304":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315853,"gmtCreate":1678362664873,"gmtModify":1678362667426,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315853","repostId":"1107257184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315193,"gmtCreate":1678362652712,"gmtModify":1678362655245,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315193","repostId":"2318230395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2318230395","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678342683,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2318230395?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell has no choice but to 'beat inflation with recession'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2318230395","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>According to economist Steven Blitz, if the Fed wants to defeat inflation with recession, it will have to raise the unemployment rate to at least 4.5% and possibly as high as 5.5%.</b>The Federal Reserve will not stop rate hike until the U.S. economy enters a recession.</p><p>On Wednesday, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in an interview with the media,<b>The Fed won't stop rate hike until Powell creates a recession and unemployment starts to rise.</b></p><p>Blitz emphasized that the Fed cannot estimate its interest rate ceiling in the absence of a recession. Blitz notes:</p><p>They don't know where the top interest rate is because they don't know where inflation will stabilize without a recession.<b>In my opinion, if the Fed wants to defeat inflation with a recession, it will have to raise the unemployment rate to at least 4.5% and possibly 5.5%.</b>Powell pointed to recent stronger-than-expected economic data during a congressional hearing on Tuesday, suggesting that the eventual interest rate level could be higher than previously expected.</p><p><b>This hawkish argument made the market rate hike expect to heat up rapidly, jumping from the economic \"no landing\" argument to a \"hard landing\"</b>。 The bond market doubled down on the U.S. recession, with the inversion between 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields exceeding 100 basis points for the first time since 1981.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In the latest report, it raised its expectation of peak interest rates. Jan Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs, pointed out:</p><p>Whether the Fed will choose rate hike for 25 basis points or 50 basis points,<b>The median forecast for peak interest rates in the March economic forecast summary is expected to reach 5.5%-5.75%.</b>Goldman Sachs also expects mixed data ahead of the March meeting. Although the number of U.S. job openings declined in January, it expects the core CPI to rise by 0.45% month-on-month in February, rebounding from the previous value of 0.4%. So Goldman Sachs points out:</p><p>Our forecast for a 25 basis point rate hike in March is very suspended, and there is a risk of a 50 basis point Fed FOMC rate hike.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell has no choice but to 'beat inflation with recession'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell has no choice but to 'beat inflation with recession'\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 14:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>According to economist Steven Blitz, if the Fed wants to defeat inflation with recession, it will have to raise the unemployment rate to at least 4.5% and possibly as high as 5.5%.</b>The Federal Reserve will not stop rate hike until the U.S. economy enters a recession.</p><p>On Wednesday, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in an interview with the media,<b>The Fed won't stop rate hike until Powell creates a recession and unemployment starts to rise.</b></p><p>Blitz emphasized that the Fed cannot estimate its interest rate ceiling in the absence of a recession. Blitz notes:</p><p>They don't know where the top interest rate is because they don't know where inflation will stabilize without a recession.<b>In my opinion, if the Fed wants to defeat inflation with a recession, it will have to raise the unemployment rate to at least 4.5% and possibly 5.5%.</b>Powell pointed to recent stronger-than-expected economic data during a congressional hearing on Tuesday, suggesting that the eventual interest rate level could be higher than previously expected.</p><p><b>This hawkish argument made the market rate hike expect to heat up rapidly, jumping from the economic \"no landing\" argument to a \"hard landing\"</b>。 The bond market doubled down on the U.S. recession, with the inversion between 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields exceeding 100 basis points for the first time since 1981.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In the latest report, it raised its expectation of peak interest rates. Jan Hatzius, an economist at Goldman Sachs, pointed out:</p><p>Whether the Fed will choose rate hike for 25 basis points or 50 basis points,<b>The median forecast for peak interest rates in the March economic forecast summary is expected to reach 5.5%-5.75%.</b>Goldman Sachs also expects mixed data ahead of the March meeting. Although the number of U.S. job openings declined in January, it expects the core CPI to rise by 0.45% month-on-month in February, rebounding from the previous value of 0.4%. So Goldman Sachs points out:</p><p>Our forecast for a 25 basis point rate hike in March is very suspended, and there is a risk of a 50 basis point Fed FOMC rate hike.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ad6d149dc7d2caabace61c93649d4b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2318230395","content_text":"在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz在接受媒体采访时表示，除非鲍威尔制造一场衰退，失业率开始上升，美联储才会停止加息。Blitz强调，在经济没有衰退的情况下，美联储无法估计其利率上限。Blitz指出：他们不知道最高利率在哪里，因为他们不知道在没有衰退的情况下通胀会在哪里稳定下来。在我看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。鲍威尔在周二的国会听证会中指出，最近的经济数据强于预期，这表明最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。这一鹰派论调令市场加息预期快速升温，从经济“不着陆”的论调跳到“硬着陆”。债市加倍下注美国经济衰退，2年期和10年期美债收益率之间的倒挂幅度，自1981年以来首次超过了100基点。高盛则在最新报告中上调了利率峰值预期，高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius指出：无论美联储会是选择加息25个基点还是50个基点，预计3月份经济预测摘要中对利率峰值的预测中值将达到5.5%-5.75%。高盛还预计，3月会议前的数据喜忧参半，1月份美国职位空缺数虽有所下降，但预计2月核心CPI环比涨幅为0.45%，较前值0.4%有所反弹。因此高盛指出：我们对于3月加息25个基点的预测很悬，存在美联储FOMC加息50个基点的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEF":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".IXIC":1,"ESmain":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QID":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315960,"gmtCreate":1678362632250,"gmtModify":1678362636020,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315960","repostId":"1146888656","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902177,"gmtCreate":1678280334399,"gmtModify":1678280336504,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902177","repostId":"1137703062","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137703062","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678275432,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137703062?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 19:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Why is the Federal Reserve the key to A shares again? Can the Chinese market step out of the independent market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137703062","media":"陈果A股策略","summary":"国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Guo, Xia Fanjie, CITIC Construction Investment</p><p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Core point:</b></li></ul><b>Starting from the increasingly strong linkage between A shares and US stocks, this paper explores the ways that the Federal Reserve can influence A shares. And analyze from four reasons why overseas liquidity will exceed domestic liquidity on A shares at some stages. At the end of this paper, it is pointed out that the market environment in the next few months may be that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States fluctuates upward, but the upward pressure of the US Dollar Index is not great. For A-shares, the maximum risk of rate hike has passed, and the rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. In the future, China's economic recovery will be the key to the start of an independent market.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Behind the Enhanced Linkage between A Shares and US Stocks</b></li></ul>The analysis of the correlation between the weekly ups and downs of Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that the linkage between China and the United States will be strengthened after 2019. Behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks, the influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cannot be ignored. It mainly affects A-shares in two ways, one is to directly affect the valuation of A-shares through the rise and fall of US stocks, and the other is to trigger the fluctuation of A-share market through capital flow.</p><p><ul><li><b>Domestic and overseas liquidity, who is more affected by A shares?</b></li></ul>Logically, internal causes influence more than external causes. In fact, the impact of interest rate changes in the United States on A shares is very obvious at some stages. For example, the impact on the stock price of Kweichow Moutai before and after the rise of US Treasury yields, and the linkage between the US Dollar Index and CSI 300.</p><p><ul><li><b>Why are A shares so greatly affected by the Federal Reserve?</b></li></ul>The impact of external factors is particularly obvious recently, for four reasons: (since 2017) the degree of internationalization of A shares has increased significantly in recent years; (Since 2019) Domestic precise regulation, the United States has opened and closed; (In the past two months), China is still in the observation period, and the United States is expected to change; (Transmission mechanism) mainly affects fixed-income assets in China, while the United States affects global asset pricing.</p><p><ul><li><b>How will this year's Fed affect A shares?</b></li></ul>\"Dove expectation + weak dollar environment\" is the most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to prolong the duration and look for flexibility. The source of flexibility can come from post-epidemic repair, and the more common situation is to seek flexibility from technology growth stocks. Under the \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\", the market valuation was killed, and funds poured into low valuation and high Dividend varieties to hedge, looking for cash flow. Cyclical and stable styles such as coal and public utilities benefited the most.</p><p>The market environment in the coming months may be that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States will fluctuate upward, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. The ECB's rate hike may exceed expectations, but the ECB's impact on A shares is relatively limited. For A-shares, the maximum risk of rate hike has passed, and the rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. In the future, China's economic recovery will be the key to the start of an independent market.</p><p><ul><li><b>Risk warning</b></li></ul>The tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations, the inflation situation in Europe exceeded expectations, and the economic recovery in China was lower than expected.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>In the past two months, the Fed's rate hike is expected to be revised, and the trend of A shares and US stocks is becoming more and more similar. Starting from the linkage of Chinese and American stock markets, this paper explores the ways that the Federal Reserve can influence A shares. Logically, China's economy determines the profit growth of A-share enterprises, and the People's Bank of China determines the flow of A-share market. But why does overseas liquidity have more impact on A-shares than domestic liquidity at some stages?</p><p>We interpreted it from four aspects and answered the question \"Why has the Federal Reserve become the key to A shares again\". At the end of the article, we conduct a review of the performance of A shares in two market environments: \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar\" and \"dovish expectation + weak dollar\". It is pointed out that in the future stage, A shares will still face the pressure of high inflation environment and the opportunity of independent market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c340c4caebe5c020eacc03de97ef9\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1. Behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks</b></p><p><b>Is the trend of A shares and US stocks becoming more and more similar?</b></p><p>Recently, in communication with institutional investors, a common feeling is that the trend of A shares and US stocks is becoming more and more similar. This feature has gradually become clear after the second half of 2019, especially in the past two months. Especially reflected in the ChiNext Index and Nasdaq Index, the representative indexes of technology growth, as are the classic indexes CSI 300 and S&P 500: the market performance and the rise and fall direction are mostly similar. In view of this, A-share investors are paying more and more attention to the trend of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the fluctuation of the US Dollar Index and the trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe583ce2aeed214085e5c6e359fb407\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f0efe6229f3f8ab59e6ca602ec50e7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The analysis of the correlation between the weekly ups and downs of Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that the linkage between China and the United States will be strengthened after 2019. The statistical results show that from the opening of GEM in 2010 to the end of 2018, the correlation coefficients of the weekly ups and downs of GEM Index-Nasdaq Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300-S&P 500 Index and SSE 50-Dow Jones Index are 0.172, 0.275 and 0.172 respectively, and there is no correlation between them in the three groups. Since 2019, the correlations between the weekly ups and downs of the three groups of indexes are 0.543, 0.903 and 0.895 respectively, which are moderately correlated, highly correlated and highly correlated respectively. The above tests were all significant at the 1% level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb64c1b68b3befa5158694492a26b8a\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73efc5d08f1a82fd37f957d76a59b2b3\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>How Does Fed Monetary Policy Affect A Shares?</b></p><p>A key factor behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks lies in the fact that the yield of US Treasury Bond, as the anchor of global pricing, acts on the stock markets of China and the United States at the same time, leading to the linkage between the two markets. With the improvement of the internationalization of A shares, the monetary policy adjustment of the Federal Reserve has an increasing impact on A shares, and it has gradually become a key policy that A share investors can't ignore.</p><p>There are two main ways for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to transmit A shares:</p><p>First, the ups and downs of US stocks directly affect the valuation of A shares. This is due to the developed capital market and high-tech industries of US stocks, which has led to many technology leaders in US stocks becoming the global valuation benchmarks of growth stocks in this field. The stock price fluctuations of Nasdaq or related technology leaders will have a direct impact on the valuation of GEM or related technology industries; In addition, the ups and downs of US stocks will also be transmitted to A shares through the influence of market sentiment. US stocks-China stocks-Hong Kong stocks-A shares are a common transmission channel.</p><p>Second, the A-share market fluctuates through capital flow. The monetary policy adjustment of the Federal Reserve and the differences in economic fundamentals between China and the United States will lead to the appreciation/depreciation of the US dollar, which will turn into the appreciation/depreciation pressure of RMB and the net inflow/outflow of funds going north, and finally affect the A-share market through exchange rate fluctuations and foreign capital inflow and exit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd97493d7ecdcff9ba19a18621b3b79e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2. Domestic and overseas liquidity, who is more affected by A shares?</b></p><p><b>Logically, the influence of internal factors is more important than that of external factors</b></p><p>The phenomenon of increasing influence of overseas factors has also aroused widespread concern from investors. A hot question is, who is more affected by A shares between domestic and overseas liquidity/fundamental changes?</p><p>Logically, the answer to this question is obvious: internal causes influence more than external causes. This is because the profitability of A-share companies depends on China's economy itself, and the liquidity situation also depends on domestic liquidity. External factors can only be transmitted to A-shares from the aforementioned two channels: valuation change (benchmark valuation, emotional transmission) and capital flow (exchange rate fluctuation and northbound funds), which has an indirect impact.</p><p>As an economic power, China's economic cycle changes and monetary policy adjustments are independent, so the influence direction of internal and external factors is not necessarily the same. Logically, A shares should be more affected by internal factors.</p><p><b>In fact, that impact of US interest rate change on A shares is very obvious at some stage</b></p><p>However, in practice, investors find that the impact of US interest rate changes/the US Dollar Index fluctuations on A shares is very obvious at some stages. A typical example is the liquor stocks represented by Kweichow Moutai, which are loved by long-term funds represented by foreign capital because of their steady profitability. This led to Kweichow Moutai's valuation soaring from 30 times to more than 70 times in early 2021 in 2020, when the Federal Reserve had zero interest rates and global liquidity was flooded.</p><p>With the introduction of the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus plan in January-February 2021, and the influence of the Federal Reserve's \"big water release\" in the early stage, the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States began to rise sharply. Kweichow Moutai and other \"long-term, high-valuation\" assets were the first to suffer the brunt of the blow, and the valuation center moved down sharply. The valuation of Kweichow Moutai eventually returned to a relatively reasonable level around 40 times. The share price also fluctuated wildly without unusual changes in its corporate earnings. The impact of overseas factors on A shares can be seen.</p><p>the US Dollar Index is another overseas indicator that affects the trend of A shares. Since 2020, the trend of CSI 300 Index has shown a significant negative correlation with the fluctuation of the US Dollar Index. That is, from March 2020 to January 2021, when the US dollar index weakened, CSI 300 performed strongly, and from February 2021 to October 2022, when the US dollar strengthened, CSI 300 performed weakly, and the two trends were obviously correlated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c7fa1f518fafa607c08684f38ea32\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6677ec31c4ae9d4b3b79eca3bcbab31\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, why are A shares so greatly affected by the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p><b>The internationalization of A shares has improved significantly in recent years</b></p><p><b>More and more A-share investment needs to pay attention to overseas factors, especially the actions of the Federal Reserve. This phenomenon is particularly obvious after 2017. A key reason is that in recent years, with the obvious improvement of the internationalization of A-shares, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased, and due to the characteristics of concentrated foreign shareholding, some blue-chip white horse companies have higher pricing power.</b></p><p>First of all, with the improvement of the internationalization of A shares in recent years, especially after the repeated expansion of A shares by international indices such as MSCI, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased. According to our statistics, as of December last year, the market value of A shares held by foreign-funded institutions and individuals was nearly 3.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 3.65% of the total market value of A shares. Since 2019, the proportion of foreign ownership has been at a high level of over 2.5%, and the linkage between the Chinese and US stock markets has become increasingly close.</p><p>Secondly, the proportion of foreign capital transactions has also increased significantly in recent years. Although the market value of foreign capital was only slightly over 4% at its highest, a large amount of share capital in A shares did not participate in circulation, so the influence of foreign capital accounted for a higher proportion than the market value. From the perspective of the proportion of transaction amount, only the proportion of monthly northbound capital transaction amount to all A is counted. It can be found that the proportion has also increased significantly since 2019, basically at the level of 5%-6% in the past two years, and even reached a high of 7.2% in February 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864609b7038781d4e1984cd1933c99f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d6d78ca622310c6a3fc47c4d7efbf6\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, foreign shareholding is limited by the channel of Lu-Hong Kong Stock Connect and its strategic requirements, which is more than the concentrated shareholding of blue-chip white horse, which further enhances the voice of foreign capital in some industries and companies. According to our statistics, at present, there are 23 foreign shares that account for more than 30% of the free circulation market value, and 21 that account for more than 20% of the circulation market value. These stocks with greater foreign voice are mostly concentrated in banks, home appliances, power equipment, medicine, food and beverage and other financial, manufacturing and consumption fields.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a350d0438f743d48ba8a1a630e2a5253\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Domestic precise regulation, the United States opened and closed</b></p><p><b>Another reason for the Fed's enormous influence lies in the very different styles of monetary policy of central banks in China and the United States. The People's Bank of China tends to be accurately regulated, and the changes in monetary policy are not drastic. Compared with the wide opening and closing of monetary policy in the United States, China pays more attention to precise guidance and direct access to entities.</b></p><p>Since the second half of 2019, the differences in the adjustment of policy interest rates by the central banks of China and the United States can well illustrate the differences in monetary policy styles between the two countries. The frequency of policy interest rate adjustment of the People's Bank of China is low, and the single adjustment range is small, mostly 5 BP, 10 BP or 15BP. The main tone of \"steady\" has not changed. Specifically, there are differences between \"prudent monetary policy is flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate\" and \"prudent monetary policy is more flexible and moderate\".</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve's federal funds target interest rate has been adjusted as many as 13 times. After a slow interest rate cut in 2019, it dropped sharply to zero interest rate after the epidemic in 2020, and started three consecutive stages of sharp rate hike in 2022. The adjustment range is mostly 25BP, 50 BP or 75BP, and even 100BP is sharply reduced.</p><p>In terms of policy statement, from \"one interest rate cut is not enough to solve all problems\" after the epidemic to \"temporary inflation theory\" and \"slowing down the pace of net asset purchases\" in 2021 to \"firmly committing to the inflation target of 2% and continuing to rate hike sharply\" in 2022, the Fed's policy statement is very clear, and it keeps a close eye on key data indicators such as non-farm employment and inflation. Clear direction, greater intensity, and the huge influence of the US economy make the Fed's decision-making affect the global financial market.</p><p><b>For the A-share market, the marginal impact brought by different policy styles is different. While the People's Bank of China's policy is more direct and important, it has less change and less marginal impact, while the Fed's moves are frequent and huge, so it attracts investors' attention more.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8a2cfc0ac9faddbd5243027cdb7da3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Domestic is still in the observation period, and the United States expects to shift</b></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the trend of A-share market has become closer to that of US stocks. Perhaps the reason behind this is that the current domestic monetary policy is still in the observation period, while US inflation and rate hike expectations have undergone major changes, resulting in a marginal increase in overseas influence.</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, the domestic epidemic situation peaked rapidly, and the economy entered a state of \"normalization\". However, due to the disturbance of the base of the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation, the market still has great differences on the current economic recovery situation, and the monetary policy has entered an observation period. According to the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2022 released by the People's Bank of China on February 24th, the previous expression of \"strengthening the implementation of prudent monetary policy\" was revised to \"prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful\", and \"guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around policy interest rates\" in the monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2022 was re-mentioned.</p><p>This means that the central bank's judgment on macroeconomy tends to be positive, and the monetary policy begins to normalize. In the future, it is difficult for the market to expect further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. However, at a time when the capital center has returned to the policy interest rate, the possibility of the central bank continuing to tighten the capital is low. It is expected that the central bank will take further action after an observation period.</p><p>However, there has been a major shift in U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations since February. This follows widespread expectations that inflation will pull back, and the Federal Reserve may conduct its last rate hike in March, before halting its rate hike with rising recession expectations. However, this expectation is too optimistic about the decline of inflation. With the release of strong non-farm payrolls and inflation data in the United States, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will stop its rate hike in the future has been reversed. The consequent impact includes that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States has risen again, and the 10-year and 30-year periods have risen above 4.0% one after another. the US Dollar Index has also stopped falling and rebounded since February, with a maximum increase of 4.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12a0fee59fa8da4debf77305ea5b8\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From the recent statements of Fed officials, it can also be seen that their attitude has obviously turned eagle. Its main remarks revolve around excessive inflation levels, tight supply in the labour market, and hints at a possible rate hike of 50BP in March. The expected change may further affect the RMB exchange rate and the trend of A shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a864c8f7a610a412d8a99637364a772f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"1249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cfb2a7197a2e84d554ee6eacfdebc8\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"1337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On Tuesday, March 7th, Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified at the hearing of the Banking Committee of the U.S. Senate, warning that the strong data at the beginning of this year may prompt the Federal Reserve to stop slowing down, but accelerate the pace of rate hike, and eventually the interest rate may exceed the previous expected level of the Federal Reserve.</b>The market reacted quickly, with Treasury Bond yields soaring across the board and the US Dollar Index surging. How do we interpret it?</p><p><b>1) At present, it is in the expected transition period, and the Fed's policy adjustment pays great attention to data changes.</b>Following Powell's speech, the March Fed rate hike 50BP probability and final interest rate high expectations were significantly raised. We believe that the peak of policy interest rate in the future cannot be judged. This is because the Fed's policy adjustment pays great attention to data changes. In the future, it is necessary to look for evidence of inflation easing and labor supply and demand matching from the directions of CPI, PCE, core services after excluding housing, non-agriculture and unemployment rate. By then, the pace of the Fed's policy rate hike is expected to slow down. In the short term, whether rate hike is 50BP in March and CPI and non-agricultural data in February are observed.</p><p><b>2) Stick to the 2% inflation target, and the high interest rate environment lasts for a long time.</b>Powell particularly emphasized that \"maintaining the credibility of the 2% inflation rate target of the Federal Reserve will directly stabilize the market's expectation of the economic outlook. Therefore, it is indeed very important to stick to the 2% target. We will not consider changing the 2% inflation rate control target of the Federal Reserve.\" Previously, the market tended to ignore the 2% inflation target, overestimating the \"dovish\" turn brought by the expectation of the US economic recession. This time, the special emphasis on sticking to the 2% inflation target indicates that the high interest rate environment will last for a long time.</p><p><b>3) At present, the domestic monetary policy is still in the observation period, and the impact of the Fed's policy adjustment on A shares has intensified.</b>As the current domestic economic recovery after the epidemic remains to be seen, it is expected that it is unlikely to cut RRR and interest rates or tighten policies in the near future. Under this background, the policy adjustment of the Federal Reserve has a great impact on A shares, and varieties with long duration, high valuation and poor performance should be avoided in the short term. This impact is expected to be wiped out in the event of a moderation of US inflation-recession or a strong Chinese economic recovery, when the market is expected to build a new thread around US recession trading or China recovery trading.</p><p><b>Domestic mainly affects fixed-income assets, while the United States affects global asset pricing</b></p><p><b>A core reason for the Fed's greater influence lies in the different transmission mechanisms of liquidity to equity markets between China and the United States. In essence, the transmission channel of China's macro liquidity to the A-share market is not smooth, and the central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets. However, the financial market in the United States is developed, and the capital flow is free and smooth. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has a direct and profound impact on all financial markets around the world.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the transmission channel of China's macro-liquidity to the A-share market is not smooth, and the micro-liquidity situation and macro-liquidity of the A-share market are often separated. The central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets, and its impact on A-share pricing is indirect and limited.</p><p>According to the statistical results of the 2019 Survey on Assets and Liabilities of Urban Households in China by the People's Bank of China, bank savings and fixed-income products such as wealth management, time deposits and cash account for the vast majority of assets in residents' financial assets, while equity assets such as stocks and funds account for less than 10% (of which funds are mainly fixed-income). It can be seen that the proportion of equity in Chinese residents' financial assets is extremely low, and the impact of monetary policy on macro liquidity mainly affects the bond market, but the impact on A shares is limited.</p><p>A typical example is that after April last year, the remaining liquidity represented by M2-Social Finance rose sharply to a historically high level, but it did not bring a significant improvement in the micro-liquidity of A shares. In the second half of last year, the issuance of new funds was in a deserted state for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00410d4f25f426eee028e3d1d8af8c4a\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9e69343d69e7a7ad6b24dcaee94d18\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the other hand, the financial market in the United States is developed, and the capital flow is free and smooth. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has a direct and profound impact on all financial markets around the world. Especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve implemented the monetary policy of quantitative easing for a long time, and a large number of zero-cost or even negative-cost funds poured into the stock market. Technology stocks were popular, and a large number of funds also flowed into emerging market stock markets for diversified allocation. As a result, global stock markets, especially U.S. technology stocks and emerging market stocks, are particularly sensitive to changes in the Fed's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b970bd8672657354dcfab9f6312b094\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>IV. How will this year's Federal Reserve affect A shares?</b></p><p><b>Hawkish Expectations + A-share Performance in a Strong USD Environment</b></p><p>Since 2021, the changes in the Fed's monetary policy have the most obvious impact on the market, which can form two opposite market environments: \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\" and \"dovish expectation + weak dollar environment\". Taking the upward trend of the ten-year U.S. bond yield and the strengthening of the the US Dollar Index as the standard, we can get three typical periods of \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\", namely January 6-March 31, 2021, August 4, 2021-October 11, 2022, and February 3-March 3, 2023. By counting the main indexes, styles and industry performance of A shares in these three periods, we can get the performance characteristics of A shares in this kind of environment:</p><p>1) The dividend index on the main indexes is unique, and it can maintain positive returns for all three periods. The market value (Shanghai Composite Index) and small-cap growth (National Securities 2000), which are not too valued, have suffered a small decline in the latest period, while the growth stocks such as GEM Index and Kechuang 50 have suffered a huge decline in the environment of hawkish expectation + strong dollar due to their high valuation.</p><p>2) In terms of style, the stable style has the strongest performance, and it can also maintain positive returns in three periods. Cycle performance is also relatively good. Growth and consumption performed the worst. It can be seen that under the expectation of hawks, long-term assets are very unfavorable, while short-term assets are relatively beneficial.</p><p>3) In terms of industry, low valuation, high Dividend and short-term sectors such as coal, public utilities, building decoration and transportation performed the best, while high valuation, high growth and long-term sectors such as electronics, pharmaceutical biology and computers performed the worst.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b013b9bc97831286c2696aeafb844360\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d436b7f079e8bb01ee8c7325c279636c\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A-share performance in dovish expectations + weak US dollar environment</b></p><p>Similarly, taking the upward trend of ten-year U.S. bond yields and the strengthening of the US Dollar Index as the standard, two typical \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment periods\" can be obtained, namely, April 1-June 1, 2021, and November 4, 2022-February 2, 2023. By counting the main indexes, styles and industry performance of A shares in these two periods, we can get the performance characteristics of A shares in this kind of environment:</p><p>1) All indexes on the main indexes have achieved positive returns, among which the GEM index performed the best, and large-cap blue-chip indexes such as SSE 50 and CSI 300 also rose significantly. The performance of small-cap stocks was relatively weak, and the dividend index government was the smallest, but there was also a cumulative increase of 13.9%.</p><p>2) In terms of style, consumption style performed the best, which mainly benefited from the recovery expectation brought by the liberalization of domestic epidemic policy after November last year. Financial, cycle and growth styles also perform well, and stable style performs the worst, which is just the opposite of hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment.</p><p>3) In terms of industry, food and beverage, beauty care, non-ferrous metals, media and other industries performed the strongest, while public utilities, environmental protection, national defense and military industry performed poorly. It can be seen that under the \"dovish expectation + weak dollar environment\", the stable style was abandoned by funds due to its lack of flexibility, and investors turned to embrace the most flexible direction. For November last year, the recovery expectation brought by policy liberalization was the most flexible direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e846c6c8cf2716716bc71f047bfd3bd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68609a05e24994ac269b9c80747fead7\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"921\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>High inflation pressure is still there, the upward pressure of the US dollar is limited, and the European Central Bank may become a new variable</b></p><p>From the above A-share review, we can draw the following conclusions:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve's policy has had a huge impact on A-shares since 2021, and the performance of A-share markets in two different market environments is diametrically opposite.</p><p>2) \"Dove expectation + weak dollar environment\" is the most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to prolong the duration and look for flexibility. The source of flexibility can come from post-epidemic repair, and the more common situation is to seek flexibility from technology growth stocks.</p><p>3) Under the \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\", the market valuation was killed, and funds poured into low valuation and high Dividend varieties to hedge, looking for cash flow. Cyclical and stable styles such as coal and public utilities benefited the most.</p><p>So, what kind of market environment will we face in the future? We believe that,<b>At present, the global high inflation pressure is still there, and the US Treasury Bond yield may rise further under the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to rate hike. However, compared with the United States, the inflation and rate hike situation in the euro zone are more severe, and the European Central Bank's stronger rate hike will boost the euro exchange rate and reduce the upward pressure of the US dollar. Finally, the recovery of China's economy is also expected to offset some of the pressure of RMB depreciation. Therefore, the market environment in the coming months may be that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States will fluctuate upward, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index.</b></p><p>At present, the inflationary pressure in the United States is still high. In January, the core PCE grew by 4.71% year-on-year, which failed to continue the previous downward trend. Instead, it rebounded, exceeding market expectations. This round of inflation in the United States belongs to \"compound inflation\" from the perspective of its causes, including the unlimited QE of the Federal Reserve and the radical fiscal stimulus of the US government after the epidemic, as well as the problems of energy investment, supply chain and labor. At the same time, the anti-globalization wave started by the Trump administration in 2018 also destroyed the global supply chain system.</p><p>Judging from the current situation, although energy and supply chain problems have been significantly improved in recent months, food and wage inflation remain high. We expect that the upward pressure of housing rent, which has the largest weight in inflation, may continue until September this year, which may make it difficult for PCE in the United States to remain at a high level in the coming months to drop significantly.</p><p>At present, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will return to rate hike 50BP with a high probability in March, and the federal funds rate may rise to 5.5% to 5.75% by July, and it is also possible to rise to 5.75% to 6.0%, compared with the current total rate hike of 125BP. The trend of benchmark interest rates will eventually be reflected in the US Treasury yields, and historically the two will eventually reach the same height.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc4ac523dcf11044150e1755199783a\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50f787c1d5645abba12d7799b972381\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the current euro zone is facing a more severe inflation adjustment, which means a \"higher and longer\" rate hike of the European Central Bank. In February, the core harmonized CPI rebounded beyond expectations, with an initial value of 5.6% year-on-year and an expected 5.3%. The market generally expects the European Central Bank to accumulate 100 basis points of rate hike in March and May, and the peak interest rate will reach about 4.1%.</p><p>Recently, Robert Holzmann, governor of the European Central Bank and the Austrian central bank, made a hawkish statement in an interview with Bloomberg: \"<b>I don't think core inflation will weaken significantly in the first half of the year and will remain near current levels. In this case, I would expect us to rate hike 4 more times this year, rate hike 0.5 percentage point. Even then, our deposit rate is only 4%. Only there will we approximately enter the restricted area</b>。”</p><p>Following the rate hike path proposed by Robert Holzmann, the ECB deposit mechanism interest rate will rise from the current 2.5% to 4.5%, much higher than the current peak of 4% expected by the market, which is also the interest rate level that has not been publicly proposed by any other ECB official so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed02969720a2c06b52572e75fb354b0\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bf286d5a9a6324659f1d0ad9f9b328\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Judging from the history after the birth of the euro, the situation that the inflation in the euro zone has greatly exceeded that in the United States has never happened before, so it is difficult for us to get the historical experience of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank rate hike at the same time, the European rate hike is more, and the the US Dollar Index is flat. Therefore, we only analyze it logically: the previous article has proved that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a great influence on A shares at some stages. From the analysis of transmission channels, the influence of the European Central Bank can be regarded as a weakened version of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On the one hand, the sharp rate hike of the European Central Bank and the potential monetary policy adjustment of the Bank of Japan will raise the global cost of money, which will lead to the continued outflow of funds from emerging markets (or at least difficult inflow), while the technology growth style is under pressure and the stable cycle style is strong. On the other hand, compared with the technological growth style of US stocks, the European stock market is more value-oriented, and there is no benchmarking significance of valuation. The ability to drive A shares down through the channel of risk appetite and sentiment is limited.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c54a00e7982414a9de69622e4fe3ee\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f33fa50ade7bdce2f52b18976fdca7\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The key to A-shares going out of the independent market lies in whether their own fundamentals can strengthen</b></p><p><b>Firm rate hike is not a bad thing, the maximum risk point has passed</b></p><p>For the market, it is not a bad thing for the central bank to firmly rate hike under the background of high inflation. The hesitation of rate hike leads to runaway inflation, which has a greater negative impact on the market. Judging from the market in the previous two years, when inflation was high but the Federal Reserve's rate hike was not resolute (November 2021-June 2022), US stocks fell the most, while when the Federal Reserve was resolute in a sharp rate hike (since June 2022), US stocks stopped their downward momentum, and the market volatility decreased. Up to now, the risk of killing valuation brought by rate hike has been fully reflected. If the United States enters a recession in the future, it may lead to the \"killing performance\" of U.S. stocks entering the final decline. But for A shares, the time when the biggest impact has passed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5b1ddee48677914bc382d74f3b31d2\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. bond yields are still rising under the pressure of short-term high global inflation, which will suppress the performance of stock prices of long-term, high-valued and poor-performing varieties.<b>This does not mean that the A-share market cannot open an independent market, nor does it mean that the growth style of A-shares has weakened in an all-round way. Historically, A shares have repeatedly gone out of the independent market under the background of upward U.S. bond yields, and even their growth style has performed better during this period. The key is that China's economic fundamentals are obviously better than those of the United States, which helps to break the linkage between China and the United States and screen out the interest rate pressure from the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Several periods when U.S. bond yields rose but A shares went out of the independent market or their growth style relatively outperformed included:</p><p>1) From December 2008 to June 2009, China's economy led the global rapid recovery after 4 trillion yuan.</p><p>2) From May 2013 to December 2013, when the Federal Reserve created Taper panic, there was also a \"money shortage\" in China, which did not hinder the soaring of small and medium-sized enterprises.</p><p>3) From February 2015 to June 2015, China's economy stabilized, and the U.S. economy dropped sharply in the first quarter, resulting in the failure of market rate hike expectations.</p><p>4) From September 2020 to January 2021, China's economy took the lead in recovery after the pandemic, followed by a significant recovery in the US economy.</p><p>5) From May 2022 to June 2022, China's economy ushered in a recovery after the impact of the epidemic, and the United States made a sharp rate hike in response to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d721fb20166b17f234f3fc2b9b19a3cc\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>We expect China's economy to bottom out in the first half of the year.</b>From our tracking of the economic inventory cycle, China entered the active destocking stage in April last year. According to the historical average 11-month active destocking cycle and the PPI expected to bottom out in April this year, we expect the active destocking stage to end in March-May this year and enter the passive destocking stage. At the same time, household consumption is also expected to recover further after the epidemic policy is liberalized and income expectation is stable.</p><p><b>China's economy is expected to shift from the previous \"normalization\" to a real \"recovery\".</b>If the macro fundamental combination of \"strong Chinese economy + weak US economy\" can be formed in the second half of this year, A shares will be expected to break the restrictions of the Federal Reserve and get out of an independent market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d71d77910905faf15f45306426adf2cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>(1) Overseas Federal Reserve tightening exceeded expectations. If the U.S. economy continues to remain resilient, and economic data such as the labor market and retail sales perform brightly, then the U.S. recession risk may face revaluation, and the inflation risk will also face a rebound. The Federal Reserve's tightening and anti-inflation road continues, and the global liquidity is less loose than expected. The denominator end of the domestic equity market will inevitably be under pressure.</p><p>(2) The severity of inflation in Europe exceeds expectations. If inflation in Europe continues to be higher than expected, the European Central Bank will be forced to make many large rate hike, which will lead to a further rise in global interest rates and even push the Bank of Japan's monetary policy adjustment. The global market may bid farewell to the investment environment of low interest rates, and long-term assets are facing greater risks.</p><p>(3) The implementation effect of domestic economic recovery or steady growth policy is less than expected. If the subsequent domestic real estate sales, investment and other data are difficult to recover, the long-term accumulated risk of urban investment debt repayment is facing fermentation, and the post-epidemic economic recovery is finally falsified, then the overall market trend will be under pressure, and the overly optimistic pricing expectation will face correction.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"chagcl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is the Federal Reserve the key to A shares again? Can the Chinese market step out of the independent market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is the Federal Reserve the key to A shares again? Can the Chinese market step out of the independent market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">陈果A股策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-08 19:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Chen Guo, Xia Fanjie, CITIC Construction Investment</p><p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Core point:</b></li></ul><b>Starting from the increasingly strong linkage between A shares and US stocks, this paper explores the ways that the Federal Reserve can influence A shares. And analyze from four reasons why overseas liquidity will exceed domestic liquidity on A shares at some stages. At the end of this paper, it is pointed out that the market environment in the next few months may be that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States fluctuates upward, but the upward pressure of the US Dollar Index is not great. For A-shares, the maximum risk of rate hike has passed, and the rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. In the future, China's economic recovery will be the key to the start of an independent market.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Behind the Enhanced Linkage between A Shares and US Stocks</b></li></ul>The analysis of the correlation between the weekly ups and downs of Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that the linkage between China and the United States will be strengthened after 2019. Behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks, the influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cannot be ignored. It mainly affects A-shares in two ways, one is to directly affect the valuation of A-shares through the rise and fall of US stocks, and the other is to trigger the fluctuation of A-share market through capital flow.</p><p><ul><li><b>Domestic and overseas liquidity, who is more affected by A shares?</b></li></ul>Logically, internal causes influence more than external causes. In fact, the impact of interest rate changes in the United States on A shares is very obvious at some stages. For example, the impact on the stock price of Kweichow Moutai before and after the rise of US Treasury yields, and the linkage between the US Dollar Index and CSI 300.</p><p><ul><li><b>Why are A shares so greatly affected by the Federal Reserve?</b></li></ul>The impact of external factors is particularly obvious recently, for four reasons: (since 2017) the degree of internationalization of A shares has increased significantly in recent years; (Since 2019) Domestic precise regulation, the United States has opened and closed; (In the past two months), China is still in the observation period, and the United States is expected to change; (Transmission mechanism) mainly affects fixed-income assets in China, while the United States affects global asset pricing.</p><p><ul><li><b>How will this year's Fed affect A shares?</b></li></ul>\"Dove expectation + weak dollar environment\" is the most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to prolong the duration and look for flexibility. The source of flexibility can come from post-epidemic repair, and the more common situation is to seek flexibility from technology growth stocks. Under the \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\", the market valuation was killed, and funds poured into low valuation and high Dividend varieties to hedge, looking for cash flow. Cyclical and stable styles such as coal and public utilities benefited the most.</p><p>The market environment in the coming months may be that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States will fluctuate upward, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. The ECB's rate hike may exceed expectations, but the ECB's impact on A shares is relatively limited. For A-shares, the maximum risk of rate hike has passed, and the rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. In the future, China's economic recovery will be the key to the start of an independent market.</p><p><ul><li><b>Risk warning</b></li></ul>The tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations, the inflation situation in Europe exceeded expectations, and the economic recovery in China was lower than expected.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>In the past two months, the Fed's rate hike is expected to be revised, and the trend of A shares and US stocks is becoming more and more similar. Starting from the linkage of Chinese and American stock markets, this paper explores the ways that the Federal Reserve can influence A shares. Logically, China's economy determines the profit growth of A-share enterprises, and the People's Bank of China determines the flow of A-share market. But why does overseas liquidity have more impact on A-shares than domestic liquidity at some stages?</p><p>We interpreted it from four aspects and answered the question \"Why has the Federal Reserve become the key to A shares again\". At the end of the article, we conduct a review of the performance of A shares in two market environments: \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar\" and \"dovish expectation + weak dollar\". It is pointed out that in the future stage, A shares will still face the pressure of high inflation environment and the opportunity of independent market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c340c4caebe5c020eacc03de97ef9\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>1. Behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks</b></p><p><b>Is the trend of A shares and US stocks becoming more and more similar?</b></p><p>Recently, in communication with institutional investors, a common feeling is that the trend of A shares and US stocks is becoming more and more similar. This feature has gradually become clear after the second half of 2019, especially in the past two months. Especially reflected in the ChiNext Index and Nasdaq Index, the representative indexes of technology growth, as are the classic indexes CSI 300 and S&P 500: the market performance and the rise and fall direction are mostly similar. In view of this, A-share investors are paying more and more attention to the trend of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the fluctuation of the US Dollar Index and the trend of U.S. stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe583ce2aeed214085e5c6e359fb407\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f0efe6229f3f8ab59e6ca602ec50e7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The analysis of the correlation between the weekly ups and downs of Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that the linkage between China and the United States will be strengthened after 2019. The statistical results show that from the opening of GEM in 2010 to the end of 2018, the correlation coefficients of the weekly ups and downs of GEM Index-Nasdaq Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300-S&P 500 Index and SSE 50-Dow Jones Index are 0.172, 0.275 and 0.172 respectively, and there is no correlation between them in the three groups. Since 2019, the correlations between the weekly ups and downs of the three groups of indexes are 0.543, 0.903 and 0.895 respectively, which are moderately correlated, highly correlated and highly correlated respectively. The above tests were all significant at the 1% level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb64c1b68b3befa5158694492a26b8a\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73efc5d08f1a82fd37f957d76a59b2b3\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>How Does Fed Monetary Policy Affect A Shares?</b></p><p>A key factor behind the enhanced linkage between A shares and US stocks lies in the fact that the yield of US Treasury Bond, as the anchor of global pricing, acts on the stock markets of China and the United States at the same time, leading to the linkage between the two markets. With the improvement of the internationalization of A shares, the monetary policy adjustment of the Federal Reserve has an increasing impact on A shares, and it has gradually become a key policy that A share investors can't ignore.</p><p>There are two main ways for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to transmit A shares:</p><p>First, the ups and downs of US stocks directly affect the valuation of A shares. This is due to the developed capital market and high-tech industries of US stocks, which has led to many technology leaders in US stocks becoming the global valuation benchmarks of growth stocks in this field. The stock price fluctuations of Nasdaq or related technology leaders will have a direct impact on the valuation of GEM or related technology industries; In addition, the ups and downs of US stocks will also be transmitted to A shares through the influence of market sentiment. US stocks-China stocks-Hong Kong stocks-A shares are a common transmission channel.</p><p>Second, the A-share market fluctuates through capital flow. The monetary policy adjustment of the Federal Reserve and the differences in economic fundamentals between China and the United States will lead to the appreciation/depreciation of the US dollar, which will turn into the appreciation/depreciation pressure of RMB and the net inflow/outflow of funds going north, and finally affect the A-share market through exchange rate fluctuations and foreign capital inflow and exit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd97493d7ecdcff9ba19a18621b3b79e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>2. Domestic and overseas liquidity, who is more affected by A shares?</b></p><p><b>Logically, the influence of internal factors is more important than that of external factors</b></p><p>The phenomenon of increasing influence of overseas factors has also aroused widespread concern from investors. A hot question is, who is more affected by A shares between domestic and overseas liquidity/fundamental changes?</p><p>Logically, the answer to this question is obvious: internal causes influence more than external causes. This is because the profitability of A-share companies depends on China's economy itself, and the liquidity situation also depends on domestic liquidity. External factors can only be transmitted to A-shares from the aforementioned two channels: valuation change (benchmark valuation, emotional transmission) and capital flow (exchange rate fluctuation and northbound funds), which has an indirect impact.</p><p>As an economic power, China's economic cycle changes and monetary policy adjustments are independent, so the influence direction of internal and external factors is not necessarily the same. Logically, A shares should be more affected by internal factors.</p><p><b>In fact, that impact of US interest rate change on A shares is very obvious at some stage</b></p><p>However, in practice, investors find that the impact of US interest rate changes/the US Dollar Index fluctuations on A shares is very obvious at some stages. A typical example is the liquor stocks represented by Kweichow Moutai, which are loved by long-term funds represented by foreign capital because of their steady profitability. This led to Kweichow Moutai's valuation soaring from 30 times to more than 70 times in early 2021 in 2020, when the Federal Reserve had zero interest rates and global liquidity was flooded.</p><p>With the introduction of the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus plan in January-February 2021, and the influence of the Federal Reserve's \"big water release\" in the early stage, the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States began to rise sharply. Kweichow Moutai and other \"long-term, high-valuation\" assets were the first to suffer the brunt of the blow, and the valuation center moved down sharply. The valuation of Kweichow Moutai eventually returned to a relatively reasonable level around 40 times. The share price also fluctuated wildly without unusual changes in its corporate earnings. The impact of overseas factors on A shares can be seen.</p><p>the US Dollar Index is another overseas indicator that affects the trend of A shares. Since 2020, the trend of CSI 300 Index has shown a significant negative correlation with the fluctuation of the US Dollar Index. That is, from March 2020 to January 2021, when the US dollar index weakened, CSI 300 performed strongly, and from February 2021 to October 2022, when the US dollar strengthened, CSI 300 performed weakly, and the two trends were obviously correlated.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c7fa1f518fafa607c08684f38ea32\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6677ec31c4ae9d4b3b79eca3bcbab31\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Third, why are A shares so greatly affected by the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p><b>The internationalization of A shares has improved significantly in recent years</b></p><p><b>More and more A-share investment needs to pay attention to overseas factors, especially the actions of the Federal Reserve. This phenomenon is particularly obvious after 2017. A key reason is that in recent years, with the obvious improvement of the internationalization of A-shares, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased, and due to the characteristics of concentrated foreign shareholding, some blue-chip white horse companies have higher pricing power.</b></p><p>First of all, with the improvement of the internationalization of A shares in recent years, especially after the repeated expansion of A shares by international indices such as MSCI, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased. According to our statistics, as of December last year, the market value of A shares held by foreign-funded institutions and individuals was nearly 3.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 3.65% of the total market value of A shares. Since 2019, the proportion of foreign ownership has been at a high level of over 2.5%, and the linkage between the Chinese and US stock markets has become increasingly close.</p><p>Secondly, the proportion of foreign capital transactions has also increased significantly in recent years. Although the market value of foreign capital was only slightly over 4% at its highest, a large amount of share capital in A shares did not participate in circulation, so the influence of foreign capital accounted for a higher proportion than the market value. From the perspective of the proportion of transaction amount, only the proportion of monthly northbound capital transaction amount to all A is counted. It can be found that the proportion has also increased significantly since 2019, basically at the level of 5%-6% in the past two years, and even reached a high of 7.2% in February 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864609b7038781d4e1984cd1933c99f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d6d78ca622310c6a3fc47c4d7efbf6\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, foreign shareholding is limited by the channel of Lu-Hong Kong Stock Connect and its strategic requirements, which is more than the concentrated shareholding of blue-chip white horse, which further enhances the voice of foreign capital in some industries and companies. According to our statistics, at present, there are 23 foreign shares that account for more than 30% of the free circulation market value, and 21 that account for more than 20% of the circulation market value. These stocks with greater foreign voice are mostly concentrated in banks, home appliances, power equipment, medicine, food and beverage and other financial, manufacturing and consumption fields.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a350d0438f743d48ba8a1a630e2a5253\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Domestic precise regulation, the United States opened and closed</b></p><p><b>Another reason for the Fed's enormous influence lies in the very different styles of monetary policy of central banks in China and the United States. The People's Bank of China tends to be accurately regulated, and the changes in monetary policy are not drastic. Compared with the wide opening and closing of monetary policy in the United States, China pays more attention to precise guidance and direct access to entities.</b></p><p>Since the second half of 2019, the differences in the adjustment of policy interest rates by the central banks of China and the United States can well illustrate the differences in monetary policy styles between the two countries. The frequency of policy interest rate adjustment of the People's Bank of China is low, and the single adjustment range is small, mostly 5 BP, 10 BP or 15BP. The main tone of \"steady\" has not changed. Specifically, there are differences between \"prudent monetary policy is flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate\" and \"prudent monetary policy is more flexible and moderate\".</p><p>However, the Federal Reserve's federal funds target interest rate has been adjusted as many as 13 times. After a slow interest rate cut in 2019, it dropped sharply to zero interest rate after the epidemic in 2020, and started three consecutive stages of sharp rate hike in 2022. The adjustment range is mostly 25BP, 50 BP or 75BP, and even 100BP is sharply reduced.</p><p>In terms of policy statement, from \"one interest rate cut is not enough to solve all problems\" after the epidemic to \"temporary inflation theory\" and \"slowing down the pace of net asset purchases\" in 2021 to \"firmly committing to the inflation target of 2% and continuing to rate hike sharply\" in 2022, the Fed's policy statement is very clear, and it keeps a close eye on key data indicators such as non-farm employment and inflation. Clear direction, greater intensity, and the huge influence of the US economy make the Fed's decision-making affect the global financial market.</p><p><b>For the A-share market, the marginal impact brought by different policy styles is different. While the People's Bank of China's policy is more direct and important, it has less change and less marginal impact, while the Fed's moves are frequent and huge, so it attracts investors' attention more.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8a2cfc0ac9faddbd5243027cdb7da3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Domestic is still in the observation period, and the United States expects to shift</b></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the trend of A-share market has become closer to that of US stocks. Perhaps the reason behind this is that the current domestic monetary policy is still in the observation period, while US inflation and rate hike expectations have undergone major changes, resulting in a marginal increase in overseas influence.</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, the domestic epidemic situation peaked rapidly, and the economy entered a state of \"normalization\". However, due to the disturbance of the base of the Spring Festival and the epidemic situation, the market still has great differences on the current economic recovery situation, and the monetary policy has entered an observation period. According to the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2022 released by the People's Bank of China on February 24th, the previous expression of \"strengthening the implementation of prudent monetary policy\" was revised to \"prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful\", and \"guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around policy interest rates\" in the monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2022 was re-mentioned.</p><p>This means that the central bank's judgment on macroeconomy tends to be positive, and the monetary policy begins to normalize. In the future, it is difficult for the market to expect further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. However, at a time when the capital center has returned to the policy interest rate, the possibility of the central bank continuing to tighten the capital is low. It is expected that the central bank will take further action after an observation period.</p><p>However, there has been a major shift in U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations since February. This follows widespread expectations that inflation will pull back, and the Federal Reserve may conduct its last rate hike in March, before halting its rate hike with rising recession expectations. However, this expectation is too optimistic about the decline of inflation. With the release of strong non-farm payrolls and inflation data in the United States, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will stop its rate hike in the future has been reversed. The consequent impact includes that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States has risen again, and the 10-year and 30-year periods have risen above 4.0% one after another. the US Dollar Index has also stopped falling and rebounded since February, with a maximum increase of 4.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12a0fee59fa8da4debf77305ea5b8\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From the recent statements of Fed officials, it can also be seen that their attitude has obviously turned eagle. Its main remarks revolve around excessive inflation levels, tight supply in the labour market, and hints at a possible rate hike of 50BP in March. The expected change may further affect the RMB exchange rate and the trend of A shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a864c8f7a610a412d8a99637364a772f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"1249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cfb2a7197a2e84d554ee6eacfdebc8\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"1337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On Tuesday, March 7th, Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified at the hearing of the Banking Committee of the U.S. Senate, warning that the strong data at the beginning of this year may prompt the Federal Reserve to stop slowing down, but accelerate the pace of rate hike, and eventually the interest rate may exceed the previous expected level of the Federal Reserve.</b>The market reacted quickly, with Treasury Bond yields soaring across the board and the US Dollar Index surging. How do we interpret it?</p><p><b>1) At present, it is in the expected transition period, and the Fed's policy adjustment pays great attention to data changes.</b>Following Powell's speech, the March Fed rate hike 50BP probability and final interest rate high expectations were significantly raised. We believe that the peak of policy interest rate in the future cannot be judged. This is because the Fed's policy adjustment pays great attention to data changes. In the future, it is necessary to look for evidence of inflation easing and labor supply and demand matching from the directions of CPI, PCE, core services after excluding housing, non-agriculture and unemployment rate. By then, the pace of the Fed's policy rate hike is expected to slow down. In the short term, whether rate hike is 50BP in March and CPI and non-agricultural data in February are observed.</p><p><b>2) Stick to the 2% inflation target, and the high interest rate environment lasts for a long time.</b>Powell particularly emphasized that \"maintaining the credibility of the 2% inflation rate target of the Federal Reserve will directly stabilize the market's expectation of the economic outlook. Therefore, it is indeed very important to stick to the 2% target. We will not consider changing the 2% inflation rate control target of the Federal Reserve.\" Previously, the market tended to ignore the 2% inflation target, overestimating the \"dovish\" turn brought by the expectation of the US economic recession. This time, the special emphasis on sticking to the 2% inflation target indicates that the high interest rate environment will last for a long time.</p><p><b>3) At present, the domestic monetary policy is still in the observation period, and the impact of the Fed's policy adjustment on A shares has intensified.</b>As the current domestic economic recovery after the epidemic remains to be seen, it is expected that it is unlikely to cut RRR and interest rates or tighten policies in the near future. Under this background, the policy adjustment of the Federal Reserve has a great impact on A shares, and varieties with long duration, high valuation and poor performance should be avoided in the short term. This impact is expected to be wiped out in the event of a moderation of US inflation-recession or a strong Chinese economic recovery, when the market is expected to build a new thread around US recession trading or China recovery trading.</p><p><b>Domestic mainly affects fixed-income assets, while the United States affects global asset pricing</b></p><p><b>A core reason for the Fed's greater influence lies in the different transmission mechanisms of liquidity to equity markets between China and the United States. In essence, the transmission channel of China's macro liquidity to the A-share market is not smooth, and the central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets. However, the financial market in the United States is developed, and the capital flow is free and smooth. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has a direct and profound impact on all financial markets around the world.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the transmission channel of China's macro-liquidity to the A-share market is not smooth, and the micro-liquidity situation and macro-liquidity of the A-share market are often separated. The central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets, and its impact on A-share pricing is indirect and limited.</p><p>According to the statistical results of the 2019 Survey on Assets and Liabilities of Urban Households in China by the People's Bank of China, bank savings and fixed-income products such as wealth management, time deposits and cash account for the vast majority of assets in residents' financial assets, while equity assets such as stocks and funds account for less than 10% (of which funds are mainly fixed-income). It can be seen that the proportion of equity in Chinese residents' financial assets is extremely low, and the impact of monetary policy on macro liquidity mainly affects the bond market, but the impact on A shares is limited.</p><p>A typical example is that after April last year, the remaining liquidity represented by M2-Social Finance rose sharply to a historically high level, but it did not bring a significant improvement in the micro-liquidity of A shares. In the second half of last year, the issuance of new funds was in a deserted state for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00410d4f25f426eee028e3d1d8af8c4a\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9e69343d69e7a7ad6b24dcaee94d18\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the other hand, the financial market in the United States is developed, and the capital flow is free and smooth. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has a direct and profound impact on all financial markets around the world. Especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve implemented the monetary policy of quantitative easing for a long time, and a large number of zero-cost or even negative-cost funds poured into the stock market. Technology stocks were popular, and a large number of funds also flowed into emerging market stock markets for diversified allocation. As a result, global stock markets, especially U.S. technology stocks and emerging market stocks, are particularly sensitive to changes in the Fed's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b970bd8672657354dcfab9f6312b094\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>IV. How will this year's Federal Reserve affect A shares?</b></p><p><b>Hawkish Expectations + A-share Performance in a Strong USD Environment</b></p><p>Since 2021, the changes in the Fed's monetary policy have the most obvious impact on the market, which can form two opposite market environments: \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\" and \"dovish expectation + weak dollar environment\". Taking the upward trend of the ten-year U.S. bond yield and the strengthening of the the US Dollar Index as the standard, we can get three typical periods of \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\", namely January 6-March 31, 2021, August 4, 2021-October 11, 2022, and February 3-March 3, 2023. By counting the main indexes, styles and industry performance of A shares in these three periods, we can get the performance characteristics of A shares in this kind of environment:</p><p>1) The dividend index on the main indexes is unique, and it can maintain positive returns for all three periods. The market value (Shanghai Composite Index) and small-cap growth (National Securities 2000), which are not too valued, have suffered a small decline in the latest period, while the growth stocks such as GEM Index and Kechuang 50 have suffered a huge decline in the environment of hawkish expectation + strong dollar due to their high valuation.</p><p>2) In terms of style, the stable style has the strongest performance, and it can also maintain positive returns in three periods. Cycle performance is also relatively good. Growth and consumption performed the worst. It can be seen that under the expectation of hawks, long-term assets are very unfavorable, while short-term assets are relatively beneficial.</p><p>3) In terms of industry, low valuation, high Dividend and short-term sectors such as coal, public utilities, building decoration and transportation performed the best, while high valuation, high growth and long-term sectors such as electronics, pharmaceutical biology and computers performed the worst.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b013b9bc97831286c2696aeafb844360\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d436b7f079e8bb01ee8c7325c279636c\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A-share performance in dovish expectations + weak US dollar environment</b></p><p>Similarly, taking the upward trend of ten-year U.S. bond yields and the strengthening of the US Dollar Index as the standard, two typical \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment periods\" can be obtained, namely, April 1-June 1, 2021, and November 4, 2022-February 2, 2023. By counting the main indexes, styles and industry performance of A shares in these two periods, we can get the performance characteristics of A shares in this kind of environment:</p><p>1) All indexes on the main indexes have achieved positive returns, among which the GEM index performed the best, and large-cap blue-chip indexes such as SSE 50 and CSI 300 also rose significantly. The performance of small-cap stocks was relatively weak, and the dividend index government was the smallest, but there was also a cumulative increase of 13.9%.</p><p>2) In terms of style, consumption style performed the best, which mainly benefited from the recovery expectation brought by the liberalization of domestic epidemic policy after November last year. Financial, cycle and growth styles also perform well, and stable style performs the worst, which is just the opposite of hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment.</p><p>3) In terms of industry, food and beverage, beauty care, non-ferrous metals, media and other industries performed the strongest, while public utilities, environmental protection, national defense and military industry performed poorly. It can be seen that under the \"dovish expectation + weak dollar environment\", the stable style was abandoned by funds due to its lack of flexibility, and investors turned to embrace the most flexible direction. For November last year, the recovery expectation brought by policy liberalization was the most flexible direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e846c6c8cf2716716bc71f047bfd3bd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68609a05e24994ac269b9c80747fead7\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"921\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>High inflation pressure is still there, the upward pressure of the US dollar is limited, and the European Central Bank may become a new variable</b></p><p>From the above A-share review, we can draw the following conclusions:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve's policy has had a huge impact on A-shares since 2021, and the performance of A-share markets in two different market environments is diametrically opposite.</p><p>2) \"Dove expectation + weak dollar environment\" is the most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to prolong the duration and look for flexibility. The source of flexibility can come from post-epidemic repair, and the more common situation is to seek flexibility from technology growth stocks.</p><p>3) Under the \"hawkish expectation + strong dollar environment\", the market valuation was killed, and funds poured into low valuation and high Dividend varieties to hedge, looking for cash flow. Cyclical and stable styles such as coal and public utilities benefited the most.</p><p>So, what kind of market environment will we face in the future? We believe that,<b>At present, the global high inflation pressure is still there, and the US Treasury Bond yield may rise further under the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to rate hike. However, compared with the United States, the inflation and rate hike situation in the euro zone are more severe, and the European Central Bank's stronger rate hike will boost the euro exchange rate and reduce the upward pressure of the US dollar. Finally, the recovery of China's economy is also expected to offset some of the pressure of RMB depreciation. Therefore, the market environment in the coming months may be that the yield of Treasury Bond in the United States will fluctuate upward, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index.</b></p><p>At present, the inflationary pressure in the United States is still high. In January, the core PCE grew by 4.71% year-on-year, which failed to continue the previous downward trend. Instead, it rebounded, exceeding market expectations. This round of inflation in the United States belongs to \"compound inflation\" from the perspective of its causes, including the unlimited QE of the Federal Reserve and the radical fiscal stimulus of the US government after the epidemic, as well as the problems of energy investment, supply chain and labor. At the same time, the anti-globalization wave started by the Trump administration in 2018 also destroyed the global supply chain system.</p><p>Judging from the current situation, although energy and supply chain problems have been significantly improved in recent months, food and wage inflation remain high. We expect that the upward pressure of housing rent, which has the largest weight in inflation, may continue until September this year, which may make it difficult for PCE in the United States to remain at a high level in the coming months to drop significantly.</p><p>At present, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will return to rate hike 50BP with a high probability in March, and the federal funds rate may rise to 5.5% to 5.75% by July, and it is also possible to rise to 5.75% to 6.0%, compared with the current total rate hike of 125BP. The trend of benchmark interest rates will eventually be reflected in the US Treasury yields, and historically the two will eventually reach the same height.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc4ac523dcf11044150e1755199783a\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50f787c1d5645abba12d7799b972381\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the current euro zone is facing a more severe inflation adjustment, which means a \"higher and longer\" rate hike of the European Central Bank. In February, the core harmonized CPI rebounded beyond expectations, with an initial value of 5.6% year-on-year and an expected 5.3%. The market generally expects the European Central Bank to accumulate 100 basis points of rate hike in March and May, and the peak interest rate will reach about 4.1%.</p><p>Recently, Robert Holzmann, governor of the European Central Bank and the Austrian central bank, made a hawkish statement in an interview with Bloomberg: \"<b>I don't think core inflation will weaken significantly in the first half of the year and will remain near current levels. In this case, I would expect us to rate hike 4 more times this year, rate hike 0.5 percentage point. Even then, our deposit rate is only 4%. Only there will we approximately enter the restricted area</b>。”</p><p>Following the rate hike path proposed by Robert Holzmann, the ECB deposit mechanism interest rate will rise from the current 2.5% to 4.5%, much higher than the current peak of 4% expected by the market, which is also the interest rate level that has not been publicly proposed by any other ECB official so far.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed02969720a2c06b52572e75fb354b0\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bf286d5a9a6324659f1d0ad9f9b328\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Judging from the history after the birth of the euro, the situation that the inflation in the euro zone has greatly exceeded that in the United States has never happened before, so it is difficult for us to get the historical experience of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank rate hike at the same time, the European rate hike is more, and the the US Dollar Index is flat. Therefore, we only analyze it logically: the previous article has proved that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a great influence on A shares at some stages. From the analysis of transmission channels, the influence of the European Central Bank can be regarded as a weakened version of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On the one hand, the sharp rate hike of the European Central Bank and the potential monetary policy adjustment of the Bank of Japan will raise the global cost of money, which will lead to the continued outflow of funds from emerging markets (or at least difficult inflow), while the technology growth style is under pressure and the stable cycle style is strong. On the other hand, compared with the technological growth style of US stocks, the European stock market is more value-oriented, and there is no benchmarking significance of valuation. The ability to drive A shares down through the channel of risk appetite and sentiment is limited.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c54a00e7982414a9de69622e4fe3ee\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f33fa50ade7bdce2f52b18976fdca7\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The key to A-shares going out of the independent market lies in whether their own fundamentals can strengthen</b></p><p><b>Firm rate hike is not a bad thing, the maximum risk point has passed</b></p><p>For the market, it is not a bad thing for the central bank to firmly rate hike under the background of high inflation. The hesitation of rate hike leads to runaway inflation, which has a greater negative impact on the market. Judging from the market in the previous two years, when inflation was high but the Federal Reserve's rate hike was not resolute (November 2021-June 2022), US stocks fell the most, while when the Federal Reserve was resolute in a sharp rate hike (since June 2022), US stocks stopped their downward momentum, and the market volatility decreased. Up to now, the risk of killing valuation brought by rate hike has been fully reflected. If the United States enters a recession in the future, it may lead to the \"killing performance\" of U.S. stocks entering the final decline. But for A shares, the time when the biggest impact has passed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5b1ddee48677914bc382d74f3b31d2\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. bond yields are still rising under the pressure of short-term high global inflation, which will suppress the performance of stock prices of long-term, high-valued and poor-performing varieties.<b>This does not mean that the A-share market cannot open an independent market, nor does it mean that the growth style of A-shares has weakened in an all-round way. Historically, A shares have repeatedly gone out of the independent market under the background of upward U.S. bond yields, and even their growth style has performed better during this period. The key is that China's economic fundamentals are obviously better than those of the United States, which helps to break the linkage between China and the United States and screen out the interest rate pressure from the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Several periods when U.S. bond yields rose but A shares went out of the independent market or their growth style relatively outperformed included:</p><p>1) From December 2008 to June 2009, China's economy led the global rapid recovery after 4 trillion yuan.</p><p>2) From May 2013 to December 2013, when the Federal Reserve created Taper panic, there was also a \"money shortage\" in China, which did not hinder the soaring of small and medium-sized enterprises.</p><p>3) From February 2015 to June 2015, China's economy stabilized, and the U.S. economy dropped sharply in the first quarter, resulting in the failure of market rate hike expectations.</p><p>4) From September 2020 to January 2021, China's economy took the lead in recovery after the pandemic, followed by a significant recovery in the US economy.</p><p>5) From May 2022 to June 2022, China's economy ushered in a recovery after the impact of the epidemic, and the United States made a sharp rate hike in response to inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d721fb20166b17f234f3fc2b9b19a3cc\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>We expect China's economy to bottom out in the first half of the year.</b>From our tracking of the economic inventory cycle, China entered the active destocking stage in April last year. According to the historical average 11-month active destocking cycle and the PPI expected to bottom out in April this year, we expect the active destocking stage to end in March-May this year and enter the passive destocking stage. At the same time, household consumption is also expected to recover further after the epidemic policy is liberalized and income expectation is stable.</p><p><b>China's economy is expected to shift from the previous \"normalization\" to a real \"recovery\".</b>If the macro fundamental combination of \"strong Chinese economy + weak US economy\" can be formed in the second half of this year, A shares will be expected to break the restrictions of the Federal Reserve and get out of an independent market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d71d77910905faf15f45306426adf2cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk warning:</p><p>(1) Overseas Federal Reserve tightening exceeded expectations. If the U.S. economy continues to remain resilient, and economic data such as the labor market and retail sales perform brightly, then the U.S. recession risk may face revaluation, and the inflation risk will also face a rebound. The Federal Reserve's tightening and anti-inflation road continues, and the global liquidity is less loose than expected. The denominator end of the domestic equity market will inevitably be under pressure.</p><p>(2) The severity of inflation in Europe exceeds expectations. If inflation in Europe continues to be higher than expected, the European Central Bank will be forced to make many large rate hike, which will lead to a further rise in global interest rates and even push the Bank of Japan's monetary policy adjustment. The global market may bid farewell to the investment environment of low interest rates, and long-term assets are facing greater risks.</p><p>(3) The implementation effect of domestic economic recovery or steady growth policy is less than expected. If the subsequent domestic real estate sales, investment and other data are difficult to recover, the long-term accumulated risk of urban investment debt repayment is facing fermentation, and the post-epidemic economic recovery is finally falsified, then the overall market trend will be under pressure, and the overly optimistic pricing expectation will face correction.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NjczMzI0MA==&mid=2247539438&idx=1&sn=5764f6881d6208b1e06b06f114b1187d&chksm=e9b8da39decf532f16c1fb6989baa09aa78de83c51d3b23c2edbe3438587a8d37f08c4a142b2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0308Boj9dGL8rY8GFcOVadVb&sharer_sharetime=1678267375940&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">陈果A股策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NjczMzI0MA==&mid=2247539438&idx=1&sn=5764f6881d6208b1e06b06f114b1187d&chksm=e9b8da39decf532f16c1fb6989baa09aa78de83c51d3b23c2edbe3438587a8d37f08c4a142b2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0308Boj9dGL8rY8GFcOVadVb&sharer_sharetime=1678267375940&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137703062","content_text":"作者：中信建投陈果、夏凡捷核心摘要核心观点：本文从A股与美股越来越强的联动性出发，探寻美联储影响A股的途径。并从四个原因进行分析，为什么在某些阶段海外流动性对A股的影响会超过国内流动性。本文最后指出，未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。对于A股来说，加息风险最大时点已过，短期利率攀升可能压制长久期资产，未来中国经济复苏将是独立行情启动关键。A股与美股联动性增强的背后对中美股市周涨跌幅相关性的分析印证了2019年之后中美联动加强的判断。A股与美股联动性增强的背后，美联储货币政策的影响不容忽视。其主要通过两条途径影响A股，一是通过美股涨跌直接影响A股估值，二是通过资金流动引发A股市场波动。国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？逻辑上，内因影响重于外因。实际上，美国利率变化对A股影响在某些阶段非常明显。例如美债利率上升前后对贵州茅台股价的影响，以及美元指数与沪深300的走势联动。为何A股受美联储影响这么大？外因影响近期尤为明显，原因有四：（2017年以来）A股国际化程度近年来明显提升；（2019年以来）国内精准调控，美国大开大合；（近两个月）国内尚处于观察期，美国预期转变；（传导机制）国内主要影响固收资产，美国影响全球资产定价。今年的美联储将如何影响A股？“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”对市场最为有利，此时投资者倾向于拉长久期，寻找弹性，弹性的来源可以来自疫后修复，更常见的情形是从科技成长股中寻求弹性。“鹰派预期+强美元环境”下市场估值下杀，资金涌入低估值、高股息品种避险，寻找现金流，煤炭、公用事业等周期、稳定类风格最为受益。未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。欧洲央行的加息可能超预期，但欧央行对A股的影响相对有限。对于A股来说，加息风险最大时点已过，短期利率攀升可能压制长久期资产，未来中国经济复苏将是独立行情启动关键。风险提示美联储紧缩程度超预期、欧洲通胀情况超预期、中国经济复苏低于预期。引言近两月美联储加息预期修正，A股与美股走势也越来越像。本文从中美股市联动性出发，探寻美联储影响A股的途径。从逻辑上看，中国经济决定了A股企业盈利增长，中国央行决定了A股市场流动，但为什么在某些阶段海外流动性对A股的影响会超过国内流动性？我们从四个方面进行解读，回答了“美联储为何再成A股关键”这一问题。文章最后，我们对“鹰派预期+强美元”和“鸽派预期+弱美元”两种市场环境下的A股表现进行复盘。指出未来一个阶段A股仍面临高通胀环境压力，和独立行情出现的机会。一、A股与美股联动性增强的背后A股与美股走势越来越像？近期与机构投资者交流，一个普遍的感受是A股与美股的走势越来越相像，这一特点在2019年下半年之后逐步明晰，近两个月尤为明显。特别是体现在科技成长代表性指数创业板指和纳斯达克指数上，经典指数沪深300和标普500也是如此：市场表现、涨跌方向多有相似表现。有鉴于此，A股投资者对于美联储货币政策动向、美元指数波动和美股走势的关注度也越来越高。对中美股市周涨跌幅相关性的分析印证了2019年之后中美联动加强的判断。统计结果表明，2010年创业板开板后到2018年年底，创业板指-纳斯达克指数、沪深300-标普500指数、上证50-道琼斯指数周涨跌幅的相关性系数分别为0.172、0.275和0.172，三组内部两者均不相关。而2019年以来，三组指数周涨跌幅的相关性分别为0.543、0.903和0.895，分别为中度相关、高度相关和高度相关。以上检验均在1%水平上显著。美联储货币政策如何影响A股？A股与美股联动性增强的背后，一个关键因素在于美国国债收益率作为全球定价之锚，同时作用于中美两国股市，导致两个市场产生联动。随着A股国际化程度的提高，美联储的货币政策调整对于A股的影响也越来越大，并逐步成为A股投资者不可忽视的关键政策。美联储货币政策对A股的传导途径主要有两条：其一是通过美股涨跌直接影响A股估值，这是由于美股发达的资本市场和高科技产业，导致美股众多科技龙头纷纷成为全球该领域成长股估值标杆，纳斯达克或相关科技龙头的股价波动会对创业板或相关科技行业估值产生直接影响；另外，美股的涨跌波动也会通过市场情绪的影响传导到A股，美股-中概股-港股-A股是一个常见的传导渠道。其二是通过资金流动引发A股市场波动，美联储货币政策调整、中美经济基本面差异等会引发没有美元的升值/贬值，这又会转变为人民币的升值/贬值压力和北上资金的净流入/净流出，最终通过汇率波动和外资出入影响A股市场。二、国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？逻辑上，内因影响重于外因海外因素影响增大的现象也引发了投资者的广泛关注，一个热点问题是，国内与海外的流动性/基本面变化，A股受谁影响更大？从逻辑上看，这一问题的答案是显而易见的：内因的影响重于外因。这是由于A股公司的盈利状况取决于中国经济自身，而流动性情况也取决于国内的流动性，外部因素只能从估值变化（对标估值、情绪传导）和资金流动（汇率波动和北上资金）这两个前述渠道传导到A股，产生间接的影响。中国作为经济大国，经济周期变化和货币政策调整均具有独立性，因此内外因素的影响方向不一定一致，从逻辑上看，A股应该受内因影响更大。实际上，美国利率变化对A股影响在某些阶段非常明显然而，在实践中投资者发现美国利率变化/美元指数波动对A股的影响在某些阶段非常明显。一个典型的例子是贵州茅台为代表的白酒股，由于其稳健的盈利能力受到了外资为代表的长线资金的喜爱。这导致贵州茅台在美联储零利率、全球流动性泛滥的2020年，估值从30倍飙升到了2021年初的70倍以上。而随着2021年1-2月拜登政府过度的财政刺激计划出台，叠加前期美联储“大放水”影响，美国国债收益率开始大幅上行。贵州茅台等“长久期、高估值”的资产首当其冲遭受打击，估值中枢大幅下移。贵州茅台估值最终回归到40倍附近的相对合理水平。股价也在其企业盈利并未出现异常变化的情况下大幅波动。海外因素对A股的影响可见一斑。美元指数是另一个影响A股走势的海外指标，2020年以来，沪深300指数的走势与美元指数的波动呈现显著的负相关关系，即从2020年3月-2021年1月美元指数走弱时，沪深300表现强势，2021年2月-2022年10月美元走强时，沪深300表现弱势，两者走势关联明显。三、为何A股受美联储影响这么大？A股国际化程度近年来明显提升A股投资越来越多的需要关注海外因素特别是美联储动作，这一现象在2017年之后尤为明显，一个关键原因在于，近年来随着A股国际化程度明显提升，外资持股规模逐步增加，且由于外资持股集中的特点，对部分蓝筹白马公司拥有较高定价权。首先，随着近年来A股国际化程度的提升，特别是MSCI等国际指数对A股多次扩容之后，外资持股规模逐步增加。我们统计截至去年12月，外资机构和个人共持有A股市值近3.2万亿，占全A总市值比例达到3.65%。2019年以来外资持股比例处于超过2.5%的较高水平，中美股市联动日益密切。其次，外资交易额占比近年来也有明显提升。虽然外资持股市值比例最高时也仅略超4%，但A股中有大量股本不参与流通，因此外资影响力相比起市值占比更高。从成交金额占比来看，仅统计每月北向资金成交金额占全A的比例，可以发现2019年以来占比也有明显攀升，近两年基本处于5%-6%之间的水平，2021年2月甚至达到了7.2%的高点。最后，外资持股受限于陆股通渠道和其策略要求，多于蓝筹白马标的中集中持股，这进一步增强了外资在部分行业和公司的话语权。我们统计发现当前外资持股占自由流通市值比例超过30%的有23只，占流通市值比例超过20%的有21只，这些外资话语权较大的股票多集中于银行、家电、电力设备、医药、食品饮料等金融、制造、消费领域。国内精准调控，美国大开大合美联储影响力巨大的另一个原因在于中美两国央行货币政策的风格截然不同。中国央行倾向于精准调控，货币政策变化并不剧烈，相比于美国货币政策的大开大合，国内更注重精准导向、直达实体。2019年下半年以来中美两国央行对政策利率的调整差异就能够很好的说明两国货币政策风格的不同。中国央行政策利率调整的频率较低，单次调整幅度较小，多为5 BP、10 BP或15BP，主基调“稳健”一直没有变化，具体表述上则有“稳健的货币政策灵活精准、合理适度”和“稳健的货币政策更加灵活适度”这样的区别。而美联储的联邦基金目标利率的调整多达13次，经历了2019年缓慢降息，2020年疫情后大幅降到零利率，2022年开始连续大幅加息三个阶段，调整幅度多为25BP、50 BP或75BP，甚至还有100BP大幅调降。在政策表述上，从疫情后“一次降息不足以解决所有问题”到2021年“通胀暂时论”和“放缓净资产购买的步伐”再到2022年“坚定承诺2%的通胀目标，继续大幅加息”，美联储的政策表态非常明确，且紧盯非农就业、通货膨胀等关键数据指标。明确的方向、较大的力度，叠加美国经济巨大的影响力，使得美联储的决策影响着全球金融市场。对于A股市场来说，不同的政策风格带来的边际影响是不同的。中国央行的政策虽然更加直接和重要，但变化较小，边际影响也较小，而美联储的动作频繁且影响巨大，因此更吸引投资者关注。国内尚处于观察期，美国预期转变今年以来，A股市场走势与美股愈发接近，或许其背后的原因在于当前国内货币政策尚处于观察期，而美国通胀和加息预期发生了重大转变，导致海外影响边际上升。年初国内疫情快速过峰，经济进入“复常”状态，但由于春节和疫情的基数扰动，市场对于当前经济修复状况仍有较大分歧，货币政策进入观察期。根据中国央行在2月24日发布的《2022年四季度货币政策执行报告》，此前“加大稳健货币政策实施力度”的表述修改为“稳健的货币政策要精准有力”，并重新提及2022年一季度货币政策执行报告中的“引导市场利率围绕政策利率波动”。这意味着央行对宏观经济的判断趋于积极，货币政策开始正常化，在未来一段时间，市场很难期待会有进一步的降准、降息举措。不过，在资金面中枢已经回归政策利率的当下，央行继续收紧资金面的可能性较低。预计央行将在一段观察期后再采取进一步的动作。然而，2月以来美国通胀和加息预期发生了重大转变。此前市场普遍预期通胀回落，美联储可能在3月进行最后一次加息，然后伴随着衰退预期的上升而停止加息。不过，这种预期对于通胀的回落过于乐观，随着美国强劲的非农就业和通胀数据出炉，市场对于美联储未来停止加息的预期遭到逆转，随之造成的影响包括美国国债收益率再度上行，10年期、30年期陆续升破4.0%，美元指数也从2月开始止跌回升，最大涨幅4.5%。从近期美联储官员表态当中也可以看出其态度已经明显转鹰。其主要言论围绕过高的通胀水平、劳动力市场供应紧张，并暗示3月可能加息50BP。预期改变或将进一步影响人民币汇率和A股走势。美东时间3月7日周二，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院银行委员会的听证会上作证，警告今年初的强劲数据可能促使联储不再继续放缓、而是加快加息的脚步，最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。市场随之迅速反应，美国国债收益率全线飙升，美元指数大涨。我们如何解读？1）当前处于预期转变期，美联储政策调整非常注重数据变化。鲍威尔讲话后，3月美联储加息50BP概率和最终利率高点预期明显上调。我们认为未来政策利率峰值尚无法判断，这是因为美联储政策调整非常注重数据变化，未来需要从CPI、PCE、剔除住房后核心服务、非农、失业率等方向寻找通胀缓和、劳动力供给与需求匹配的证据。届时美联储政策加息节奏料将有所放缓。从短期看，3月是否加息50BP还有2月CPI和非农数据作为观察。2）坚守2%通胀目标，高利率环境持续时间较长。鲍威尔特别强调了“维持2%这一美联储通胀率目标的可信度，将能直接稳定住市场对经济前景的预期。所以，坚守2%的目标的确是非常重要的。不会考虑去变更美联储的2%通胀率控制目标。”此前市场往往倾向于忽略2%的通胀目标，过高估计了美国经济衰退预期带来的“鸽派”转向。此次特别强调坚守2%通胀目标，预示着高利率环境持续时间较长。3）当前国内货币政策尚处于观察期，美联储政策调整对A股影响加剧。由于当前国内经济疫后修复情况尚待观察，预计近期降准降息或政策收紧都不太可能。在此背景下美联储政策调整对A股的影响较大，应短期规避久期长、估值高、业绩差的品种。这一影响有望在美国通胀缓和-经济衰退或中国经济强劲复苏的情况下消除，届时市场有望围绕美国衰退交易或中国复苏交易构建新主线。国内主要影响固收资产，美国影响全球资产定价美联储影响力更大的一个核心原因在于中美两国流动性对权益市场的传导机制不同。本质上说，中国宏观流动性向A股市场的传导渠道并不畅通，央行货币政策主要影响固定收益资产定价。而美国金融市场发达、资金流动自由畅通，美联储货币政策对全球各个金融市场都有直接且深刻的影响。一方面，中国宏观流动性向A股市场的传导渠道并不畅通，A股市场微观流动性情况与宏观流动性经常存在割裂的情况，央行货币政策主要影响固定收益资产定价，对A股定价的影响间接且有限。根据中国人民银行《2019年中国城镇居民家庭资产负债情况调查》的统计结果，居民金融资产中理财、定期存款、现金等银行储蓄和固定收益型产品占据绝大部分的资产比例，而股票、基金等权益类资产占比不到10%（其中基金也以固收类为主）。可见中国居民金融资产中权益类占比极低，货币政策对宏观流动性的冲击主要对债市产生影响，而对A股的影响有限。一个典型的例子是，去年4月以后，M2-社融为代表的剩余流动性大幅攀升到历史极高水平，但并未带来A股微观流动性的明显改善，去年下半年新基金发行长期处于冷清状态。另一方面，美国金融市场发达、资金流动自由畅通，美联储货币政策对全球各个金融市场都有直接且深刻的影响。尤其是2008年金融危机之后，美联储长期实施量化宽松的货币政策，零成本甚至负成本的资金大量涌入股市，科技股受到热捧，同时大量资金还流入新兴市场股市进行多元化配置。其结果是全球股市，特别是美股科技股、新兴市场股市对美联储货币政策变化尤为敏感。四、今年的美联储将如何影响A股？鹰派预期+强美元环境下的A股表现2021年以来，美联储货币政策的变化对市场的影响最为明显，能够形成“鹰派预期+强美元环境”和“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”两类相反的市场环境，我们以十年期美债收益率上行和美元指数走强为标准，可以得到三段典型的“鹰派预期+强美元环境期”，分别为2021年1月6日-3月31日，2021年8月4日-2022年10月11日，2023年2月3日-3月3日。统计这三段时期A股主要指数、风格和行业表现，可以得到这类环境下A股表现特征：1）主要指数上红利指数一枝独秀，三段时期均能保持正收益。估值不算太高的大盘价值（上证指数）和小盘成长（国证2000）在最近一期跌幅较小，而创业板指、科创50等大盘成长股由于估值过高，在鹰派预期+强美元环境下跌幅巨大。2）风格上稳定风格表现最强，同样在三段时期均能保持正收益。周期表现也相对较好。成长和消费表现最差。可见鹰派预期下，长久期资产非常不利，而短久期资产相对受益。3）行业上，煤炭、公用事业、建筑装饰、交通运输等低估值、高股息、短久期板块表现最好，电子、医药生物、计算机等高估值、高成长、长久期板块表现最差。鸽派预期+弱美元环境下的A股表现同样的，以十年期美债收益率上行和美元指数走强为标准，可以得到两段典型的“鸽派预期+弱美元环境期”，分别为2021年4月1日-6月1日，2022年11月4日-2023年2月2日。统计这两段时期A股主要指数、风格和行业表现，可以得到这类环境下A股表现特征：1）主要指数上所有指数均获得正收益，其中创业板指表现最好，上证50、沪深300等大盘蓝筹指数也有明显上涨，小盘股表现相对偏弱，红利指数政府最小，但也有累计13.9%的涨幅。2）风格上消费风格表现最好，这主要受益于去年11月之后国内疫情政策放开带来的复苏预期。金融、周期、成长风格也同样有较好表现，稳定风格表现最差，这正好与鹰派预期+强美元环境表现相反。3）行业上，食品饮料、美容护理、有色金属、传媒等行业表现最为强劲，而公用事业、环保、国防军工等表现较差。可见在“鸽派预期+弱美元环境” 下稳定类风格由于缺乏弹性遭到资金抛弃，投资者转而拥抱最具有弹性的方向，对于去年11月来说，政策放开带来的复苏预期是最具弹性的方向。高通胀压力仍在，美元上涨压力有限，欧央行或成新变数通过上述A股复盘，我们可以得到以下结论：1）美联储政策2021年以来对A股影响巨大，两种不同市场环境下A股市场表现截然相反。2）“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”对市场最为有利，此时投资者倾向于拉长久期，寻找弹性，弹性的来源可以来自疫后修复，更常见的情形是从科技成长股中寻求弹性。3）“鹰派预期+强美元环境”下市场估值下杀，资金涌入低估值、高股息品种避险，寻找现金流，煤炭、公用事业等周期、稳定类风格最为受益。那么，未来我们即将面临什么样的市场环境呢？我们认为，目前全球高通胀压力仍在，美联储继续加息预期之下美国国债收益率或将进一步上行，不过相比于美国，欧元区通胀和加息形势更为严峻，欧洲央行更大力度的加息将提振欧元汇率，减轻美元上涨压力，最后中国经济的复苏也有望抵消一部分人民币贬值压力。因此，未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。当前美国通胀压力依然较大，1月核心PCE同比增速4.71%，未能延续前期下跌态势，反而有所反弹，超出市场预期。美国本轮通胀从起因来看属于“复合型通胀”，既有美联储无限量QE和美国政府疫后激进的财政刺激因素，也有能源投资、供应链和劳动力的问题，同时2018年特朗普政府开启的逆全球化浪潮也破坏的全球供应链体系。从当前情况来看，虽然能源和供应链问题近几个月已经得到明显改善，但食品和工资通胀仍然居高不下，我们预计通胀中权重最大的住房租金分项上涨压力或将持续到今年9月，这可能导致美国PCE在未来几个月维持在偏高水平难以明显回落。目前预计3月美联储大概率重回加息50BP，到7月联邦基金利率区间可能升至5.5%至5.75%，同时也有不小的可能升至5.75%至6.0 %，相比目前共加息125BP。基准利率的态势最终也会反映到美债利率上，从历史上看两者最终将达到相同的高度。需要注意的是，当前欧元区面临更为严峻的通胀调整，这意味着欧央行“更高、更久”的加息。2月核心调和CPI超预期反弹，同比初值5.6%，预期为5.3%，市场普遍预计欧央行将在3月和5月累计加息100个基点，利率峰值将至4.1%左右。近日欧洲央行管委、奥地利央行行长罗伯特·霍尔兹曼在接受彭博采访时做出了鹰派表态：“我认为核心通胀在今年上半年不会明显减弱，将保持在当前水平附近。在这种情况下，我预计我们今年将再加息4次，加息0.5个百分点。即使这样，我们的存款利率也只有4%。只有在那里，我们才会大致进入限制区域。”按照罗伯特·霍尔兹曼提出的加息路径，欧洲央行存款机制利率将从目前的2.5%升至4.5%，远高于当前市场预期的4%的峰值，这也是迄今为止其他任何欧洲央行官员都未曾公开提出过的利率水平。从欧元诞生后的历史来看，欧元区通胀大幅超过美国的情况此前从未出现，因此我们也很难得到美联储、欧央行同时加息，欧洲加息更多，美元指数走平情形下的历史经验。因此我们仅从逻辑上进行分析：前文已经证明，美联储货币政策在某些阶段对A股拥有较大的影响力，从传导渠道分析，欧洲央行的影响力可以看做是弱化版的美联储。一方面，欧洲央行的大幅加息和潜在的日本央行货币政策调整将抬升全球货币成本，这将导致资金继续从新兴市场流出（或至少难以流入），同时科技成长风格承压，稳定周期风格强势。另一方面，欧洲股市相比美股的科技成长风格更加偏向价值，也没有估值的标杆性意义。通过风险偏好和情绪的渠道带动A股下跌的能力有限。A股走出独立行情关键在于自身基本面能否走强坚定加息不是坏事，风险最大时点已过对市场而言，高通胀背景下央行坚定加息并非坏事，加息犹豫导致通胀失控对市场负面冲击更大。从前两年的市场来看，当通胀高企但美联储加息不坚决时（2021年11月-2022年6月）美股跌幅最大，而当美联储坚定大幅加息时（2022年6月以来）美股反而止住了下跌的势头，市场波动降低。到现在加息带来的杀估值风险已经体现充分，美国如果未来进入衰退则可能导致美股“杀业绩”进入最后一跌。但对于A股而言冲击最大的时点已经过去。短期全球高通胀压力下，美国债收益率仍在走高，这将压制久期长、估值高、业绩差的品种股价表现，不过这并不意味着A股市场无法开启独立行情，也不意味着A股成长风格全面走弱。从历史上看，A股有多次在美债收益率上行背景下走出独立行情，甚至在此期间成长风格表现较好。其关键在于中国经济基本面表现明显优于美国，这有助于打破中美联动关系，屏除来自美联储的利率压力。几个美债收益率上行但A股走出独立行情或成长风格相对跑赢的时期包括：1）2008年12月-2009年6月，四万亿之后中国经济领先全球快速复苏。2）2013年5月-2013年12月，美联储制造Taper恐慌之际，中国也出现“钱荒”，无碍中小创大涨。3）2015年2月-2015年6月，中国经济企稳，美国经济一季度大幅回落，导致市场加息预期落空。4）2020年9月-2021年1月，中国经济疫情后率先复苏，美国经济紧随其后也明显回升。5）2022年5月-2022年6月，中国经济疫情冲击后迎来修复，美国为应对通胀大幅加息。我们预计中国经济在上半年有望完成触底回升。从我们对经济库存周期的跟踪来看，去年4月我国进入主动去库存阶段，根据历史上平均11个月的主动去库存周期和有望在今年4月见底的PPI来看，我们预计主动去库存阶段或将在今年3-5月结束，并进入被动去库存阶段。同时居民消费也有望在疫情政策放开、收入预期稳定后进一步恢复。中国经济有望从之前的“复常”转向真正的“复苏”。如果今年下半年能够形成“中国经济强+美国经济弱”的宏观基本面组合，A股将有望打破美联储制约，走出一段独立行情。风险提示：（1）海外美联储紧缩程度超预期。如果美国经济持续保持韧性，劳动力市场、零售等经济数据表现亮眼，那么美国衰退风险或将面临重估，同时通胀风险也将面临反弹，美联储紧缩抗通胀之路继续，全球流动性宽松不及预期，国内权益市场分母端难免也将承压。（2）欧洲通胀严重程度超预期。如果欧洲通胀继续超预期高企，欧洲央行将被迫多次大幅度加息，这将导致全球利率水平进一步抬升，甚至推动日本央行货币政策调整。全球市场可能告别低利率的投资环境，长久期资产面临较大风险。（3）国内经济复苏或稳增长政策实施效果不及预期。如果后续国内地产销售、投资等数据迟迟难以恢复，长期积累的城投偿债风险面临发酵，经济疫后复苏最终证伪，那么整体市场走势将会承压，过于乐观的定价预期将会面临修正。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902904,"gmtCreate":1678280308609,"gmtModify":1678280313066,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902904","repostId":"2317496400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317496400","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678279423,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317496400?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Non-farm has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will it \"add another sum\" on Friday?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317496400","media":"金十数据","summary":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth because they overestimated the impact of the Fed's most aggressive rate hike action in decades. U.S. non-farm payroll growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest in decades.<b>If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Fed to continue its rate hike.</b></p><p>Since April last year, the median forecast of every survey of economists by foreign media has been 100,000 people lower than the non-farm data released by the government, which is the largest gap in the data compiled by foreign media since 1998. For the February non-farm payrolls report released Friday,<b>Market estimates are for an increase of 200,000, about half the increase in January.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697290899720116a3782360dc5ae33fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth</b>Because they<b>Overestimated the impact of the Fed's most aggressive rate hike action in decades</b>。 After experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic,<b>Businesses are reluctant to fire their hard-hired employees</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">Apollo Global Management</a>Torsten Slok, the company's chief economist, said:</p><p>\"The market had been expecting a slowdown against the backdrop of the Fed's rate hike, but that simply didn't happen.\" Employers are still struggling to fill millions of open jobs, and initial jobless claims are at record lows. On the other hand, some industries are laying off jobs, and the Fed is expected to continue its rate hike over the summer, which could put more pressure on demand and risk a significant slowdown in hiring.</p><p>Currently,<b>The labor market is one of the last hurdles to the Fed's fight against inflation</b>。 Steady job creation and wage growth will keep consumers spending, which will keep prices rising. For policymakers trying to cool inflation without triggering a recession, understanding the trajectory of inflation is crucial.</p><p>Here are some of the factors that will make employment surprisingly strong:</p><p><b>Demand for workers remains high</b></p><p>With more than 11 million U.S. jobs at the end of the year, the market now expects Wednesday's announcement of U.S. January JOLTs job openings to show a slight slowdown in January.<b>Vacancies are most visible in sectors such as leisure and hospitality and healthcare</b>, while other data shows manufacturers and small businesses are also struggling to fill the void.</p><p><b>With labor shortages so severe, businesses have been retaining workers, a practice known as \"labor hoarding.\"</b>。 The Fed mentioned this at its last policy meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said:</p><p>\"If the trend of labor hoarding continues, it could allow the labor market to be stronger for a while in the cycle, and it's really hard to time the economy to slow down.\"<b>Small scope of layoffs</b></p><p>Although the technology industry is cutting jobs aggressively, cutting about 110,000 people from November to January alone,<b>But that's a fraction of the nearly 166 million workforce</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists say,<b>The situation is also largely confined to companies that have aggressively expanded during the pandemic and have seen their share prices drop significantly</b>。 They said in a report:</p><p>\"These characteristics suggest that companies making layoffs are not representative of the overall economy, and many recent layoff announcements do not necessarily imply weak hiring demand that could have broader impacts.\" According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,<b>Broader indicators of layoffs in the overall economy remain below pre-pandemic levels</b>However, it has risen over the past year.<b>The number of people claiming unemployment benefits remains low, fewer than 200,000 for seven consecutive weeks.</b></p><p>Some of these may be due to severance payments,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economist Daniel Silver estimated last month that jobless claims should increase by about 50,000 based on their models, but the progress of corporate layoffs could be delayed because of severance payments.</p><p>In addition,<b>Unemployed Americans could also soon be poached by other companies</b>。 The hiring rate (the number of people hired relative to total employment) remains above the pre-pandemic average.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Ryan expects the latest revised figures released Wednesday will make hiring rates look stronger.</p><p>It is important to note that employment returned to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of last year, so<b>It is natural that the pace of employment growth has slowed</b>。 Furthermore, the Fed's rate hike could accelerate the trend of cooling the economy. That's what the Fed is trying to design, which is to slow the pace of hiring to ease wage pressures and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics said in a note last month:</p><p>\"If the breadth of layoff announcements expands, or if reemployment rates start to decline rapidly, it will indicate that cracks are forming in the labor market.\"</body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will it \"add another sum\" on Friday?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will it \"add another sum\" on Friday?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-08 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth because they overestimated the impact of the Fed's most aggressive rate hike action in decades. U.S. non-farm payroll growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest in decades.<b>If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Fed to continue its rate hike.</b></p><p>Since April last year, the median forecast of every survey of economists by foreign media has been 100,000 people lower than the non-farm data released by the government, which is the largest gap in the data compiled by foreign media since 1998. For the February non-farm payrolls report released Friday,<b>Market estimates are for an increase of 200,000, about half the increase in January.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697290899720116a3782360dc5ae33fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth</b>Because they<b>Overestimated the impact of the Fed's most aggressive rate hike action in decades</b>。 After experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic,<b>Businesses are reluctant to fire their hard-hired employees</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">Apollo Global Management</a>Torsten Slok, the company's chief economist, said:</p><p>\"The market had been expecting a slowdown against the backdrop of the Fed's rate hike, but that simply didn't happen.\" Employers are still struggling to fill millions of open jobs, and initial jobless claims are at record lows. On the other hand, some industries are laying off jobs, and the Fed is expected to continue its rate hike over the summer, which could put more pressure on demand and risk a significant slowdown in hiring.</p><p>Currently,<b>The labor market is one of the last hurdles to the Fed's fight against inflation</b>。 Steady job creation and wage growth will keep consumers spending, which will keep prices rising. For policymakers trying to cool inflation without triggering a recession, understanding the trajectory of inflation is crucial.</p><p>Here are some of the factors that will make employment surprisingly strong:</p><p><b>Demand for workers remains high</b></p><p>With more than 11 million U.S. jobs at the end of the year, the market now expects Wednesday's announcement of U.S. January JOLTs job openings to show a slight slowdown in January.<b>Vacancies are most visible in sectors such as leisure and hospitality and healthcare</b>, while other data shows manufacturers and small businesses are also struggling to fill the void.</p><p><b>With labor shortages so severe, businesses have been retaining workers, a practice known as \"labor hoarding.\"</b>。 The Fed mentioned this at its last policy meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said:</p><p>\"If the trend of labor hoarding continues, it could allow the labor market to be stronger for a while in the cycle, and it's really hard to time the economy to slow down.\"<b>Small scope of layoffs</b></p><p>Although the technology industry is cutting jobs aggressively, cutting about 110,000 people from November to January alone,<b>But that's a fraction of the nearly 166 million workforce</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists say,<b>The situation is also largely confined to companies that have aggressively expanded during the pandemic and have seen their share prices drop significantly</b>。 They said in a report:</p><p>\"These characteristics suggest that companies making layoffs are not representative of the overall economy, and many recent layoff announcements do not necessarily imply weak hiring demand that could have broader impacts.\" According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,<b>Broader indicators of layoffs in the overall economy remain below pre-pandemic levels</b>However, it has risen over the past year.<b>The number of people claiming unemployment benefits remains low, fewer than 200,000 for seven consecutive weeks.</b></p><p>Some of these may be due to severance payments,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economist Daniel Silver estimated last month that jobless claims should increase by about 50,000 based on their models, but the progress of corporate layoffs could be delayed because of severance payments.</p><p>In addition,<b>Unemployed Americans could also soon be poached by other companies</b>。 The hiring rate (the number of people hired relative to total employment) remains above the pre-pandemic average.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Ryan expects the latest revised figures released Wednesday will make hiring rates look stronger.</p><p>It is important to note that employment returned to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of last year, so<b>It is natural that the pace of employment growth has slowed</b>。 Furthermore, the Fed's rate hike could accelerate the trend of cooling the economy. That's what the Fed is trying to design, which is to slow the pace of hiring to ease wage pressures and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics said in a note last month:</p><p>\"If the breadth of layoff announcements expands, or if reemployment rates start to decline rapidly, it will indicate that cracks are forming in the labor market.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107989&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cefea9bf585b43364836145fdefa6c19","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","OEX":"标普100","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107989&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317496400","content_text":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。美国非农就业人数增长已连续10个月超过市场预期，这是数十年来持续时间最长的一次。如果这一趋势继续延续下去，将加大美联储继续加息的压力。从去年4月开始，外媒对经济学家每次调查的预测中值都比政府公布的非农数据平均每月低10万人，这是外媒自1998年以来汇编的数据中差距最大的。对于周五公布的2月非农就业报告，市场预估为增加20万人，增幅约为1月的一半。经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。在经历了新冠疫情后，企业不愿意解雇他们辛辛苦苦雇用的员工。阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok表示：“市场一直预期，在美联储加息的背景下，经济将放缓，但这种情况根本没有发生。”雇主们仍在努力填补数百万个空缺职位，初请失业金申请人数也处于历史最低水平。另一方面，一些行业正在裁员，美联储预计将在夏季继续加息，这可能会对需求造成更大压力，并有大幅放缓招聘的风险。目前，劳动力市场是美联储对抗通胀的最后几个障碍之一。稳定的就业机会创造和工资增长将使消费者保持消费，从而使价格持续上涨。对于那些试图在不引发衰退的情况下为通胀降温的政策制定者来说，理解通胀的轨迹至关重要。以下是会让就业人数出奇强劲的一些因素：对工人的需求仍大截至今年年底，美国就业机会超过1100万个，目前，市场预期周三公布的美国1月JOLTs职位空缺预计将显示1月份就业机会略微放缓。空缺最明显的是休闲和酒店以及医疗保健等行业，而其他数据显示，制造商和小企业也在努力填补空缺。由于劳动力短缺如此严重，企业一直在留住工人，这种做法被称为“劳动力囤积”。美联储在上次政策会议上提到了这一点。德意志银行高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan说：“如果劳动力囤积的趋势持续下去，它可能会让劳动力市场在周期中更强劲一段时间，真的很难确定经济放缓的时间。”裁员范围小虽然科技行业正大刀阔斧地进行裁员，仅从去年11月到1月就裁了有11万人左右，但这在近1.66亿劳动力中只是一小部分。高盛的经济学家说，这种情况在很大程度上也仅限于那些在疫情期间积极扩张、股价跌幅很大的公司。他们在一份报告中称：“这些特征表明，进行裁员的公司并不能代表整体经济，近期许多裁员公告并不一定意味着可能产生更广泛影响的招聘需求疲软。”美国劳工统计局的数据显示，整体经济中更广泛的裁员指标仍低于疫情前的水平，不过在过去一年有所上升。申请失业救济的人数仍然很低，连续7周不到20万人。其中，部分原因可能是遣散费，摩根大通经济学家Daniel Silver上个月估计，根据他们的模型，失业救济申请人数应增加约5万人，但因为遣散费，企业裁员的进度可能会推迟。此外，失业的美国人也可能很快被其他公司挖走。招聘率（招聘人数相对于总就业人数）仍然高于疫情前的平均水平。德意志银行的Ryan预计，周三公布的最新修正数据将使招聘率看起来更加强劲。需要注意的是，就业人数在去年年中就已恢复到疫情前的水平，因此就业人数增长的速度放缓是很自然的。此外，美联储的加息可能会加速经济降温的趋势。这就是美联储正在努力设计的，即减缓招聘步伐，以缓解工资压力，并使通胀降至2%的目标。牛津经济研究院的Ryan Sweet上月在一份报告中表示：“如果裁员公告的广度扩大，或者再就业率开始迅速下降，这将表明劳动力市场正在形成裂缝。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SPY":0.84,"SSO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QID":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,".IXIC":0.84,"UPRO":0.6,".DJI":0.84}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902018,"gmtCreate":1678280296034,"gmtModify":1678280300014,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902018","repostId":"1101924070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101924070","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678279502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101924070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market news: U.S. safety watchdog is investigating possible Tesla steering wheel detachment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101924070","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, U.S. auto safety regulators received two cases of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y has been launched following complaints that the steering wheel may have come off during driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involved about 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year. In both cases, the Model Y was delivered to customers missing a bolt holding the steering wheel to the steering column, the agency said. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but it separates when the car is stressed while driving.</p><p>The agency said in documents posted on its website Wednesday that both crashes occurred while the Model Y had low mileage. Investigators will look into how often problems occur, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market news: U.S. safety watchdog is investigating possible Tesla steering wheel detachment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket news: U.S. safety watchdog is investigating possible Tesla steering wheel detachment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-08 20:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, U.S. auto safety regulators received two cases of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y has been launched following complaints that the steering wheel may have come off during driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involved about 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year. In both cases, the Model Y was delivered to customers missing a bolt holding the steering wheel to the steering column, the agency said. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but it separates when the car is stressed while driving.</p><p>The agency said in documents posted on its website Wednesday that both crashes occurred while the Model Y had low mileage. Investigators will look into how often problems occur, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4588":"碎股","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101924070","content_text":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车。该机构说，在这两起案件中，Model Y交付给客户时，都缺少一个将方向盘固定在转向柱上的螺栓。一个摩擦装置固定住了方向盘，但当汽车在行驶过程中受力时，方向盘就会分离。该机构周三在其网站上公布的文件中说，这两起事故都发生在Model Y行驶里程较低的情况下。调查人员将调查问题发生的频率、受影响的车辆数量以及特斯拉的制造过程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949906758,"gmtCreate":1678280287875,"gmtModify":1678280291943,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949906758","repostId":"1101924070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101924070","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678279502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101924070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market news: U.S. safety watchdog is investigating possible Tesla steering wheel detachment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101924070","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, U.S. auto safety regulators received two cases of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y has been launched following complaints that the steering wheel may have come off during driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involved about 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year. In both cases, the Model Y was delivered to customers missing a bolt holding the steering wheel to the steering column, the agency said. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but it separates when the car is stressed while driving.</p><p>The agency said in documents posted on its website Wednesday that both crashes occurred while the Model Y had low mileage. Investigators will look into how often problems occur, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market news: U.S. safety watchdog is investigating possible Tesla steering wheel detachment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket news: U.S. safety watchdog is investigating possible Tesla steering wheel detachment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-08 20:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, U.S. auto safety regulators received two cases of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y has been launched following complaints that the steering wheel may have come off during driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involved about 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year. In both cases, the Model Y was delivered to customers missing a bolt holding the steering wheel to the steering column, the agency said. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but it separates when the car is stressed while driving.</p><p>The agency said in documents posted on its website Wednesday that both crashes occurred while the Model Y had low mileage. Investigators will look into how often problems occur, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4588":"碎股","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101924070","content_text":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车。该机构说，在这两起案件中，Model Y交付给客户时，都缺少一个将方向盘固定在转向柱上的螺栓。一个摩擦装置固定住了方向盘，但当汽车在行驶过程中受力时，方向盘就会分离。该机构周三在其网站上公布的文件中说，这两起事故都发生在Model Y行驶里程较低的情况下。调查人员将调查问题发生的频率、受影响的车辆数量以及特斯拉的制造过程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533686,"gmtCreate":1678019375845,"gmtModify":1678019379296,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533686","repostId":"1157059208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533861,"gmtCreate":1678019346453,"gmtModify":1678019350505,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533861","repostId":"1154440961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154440961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677989017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154440961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 12:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lei Jun's New Story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154440961","media":"全天候科技","summary":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of the ecological chain,</b></b><b>But rather</b><b><b>Tell the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>A few years ago, Xiaomi built an ecological chain map, laid out it in many smart device fields, and gradually let Mijia terminal intelligent products penetrate into various IoT markets.</p><p>After the smart phone market entered the second half, Lei Jun no longer focused on the story of the ecological chain, but on the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun told the story of \"supply chain\" to the \"two sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, a deputy to the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, including one on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested that we should encourage and support the science and technology innovation industry chain and promote the planning and layout of bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched the second round of financing, and the fund-raising scale has increased from more than 6 billion yuan last year to more than 9 billion yuan. The investment objectives of this fund focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream fields.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about the supply chain has made phased progress. According to the previous statistics of Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 enterprises in the field of smart cars.</p><p>All along, \"cost performance\" is the deepest label on Xiaomi. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for \"insufficient self-research technical ability\". The investment in upstream core supply chain enterprises or technology enterprises shows Xiaomi's determination to strengthen the right to speak in the supply chain.</p><p>The opening of supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>\"Voice\" for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>After its debut in August last year, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from the recent dynamics of Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs in the track of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>Among the suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that at present, China has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of bionic humanoid robots, but it still faces challenges such as improving the performance of core components, insufficient application demand traction, lack of large-scale mass production capacity, imperfect application ecology and supporting support system, etc.</p><p>To this end, he suggested: encourage and support the science and technology industry chain, and promote the planning and layout of bionic humanoid robot industry; Support whole machine enterprises to take the lead in establishing a national innovation consortium and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecology of bionic humanoid robots, and accelerate the cultivation of scenario applications.</p><p>In June last year, under the effect of Musk's \"humanoid robot will be launched\", the related concept of bionic humanoid robot became a hot concept in the domestic capital market, and this subdivision track also became the hottest track in the robot industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi released the prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"Tieda\") at Lei Jun's annual lecture before Tesla, and this enthusiasm reached its peak.</p><p>CyberOne launched by Xiaomi is not a PPT or a prop. It is a prototype that can be taken out and can interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per unit, and it can't yet achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that the technical integration of bionic robots was the highest and the most difficult, and Xiaomi was still in the first stage of its infancy.</p><p>Turning its attention to foreign countries, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime Optimus released by Tesla at AI Day last year also failed to reach the previously claimed level. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk, but I think it will in a couple of weeks.\"</p><p>Musk previously made a bold statement: The target price of Optimus Optimus may be less than $20,000, and more than one million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed the recent progress of Optimus Optimus at Tesla Investor Day: \"Not working properly, though things are improving.\"</p><p>Tesla is still increasing its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology found that Tesla China recently released job recruitment information in the direction of robotics, including automation control engineer (robot), electrical design engineer-robot development and its application direction.</p><p>The outlook given by institutions is tempting. Marketsandmarkets, a global market research firm, forecasts that the global humanoid robot market will rise from US$1.5 billion in 2022 to US$17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become another entrance after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>But there is no denying that the bionic humanoid robot track is a track that requires long-term investment.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, there are still many realities that have to be solved in front of this track, such as core components, the underlying operating system and chip of robots, system design software, etc.</p><p><b>Ten Billion Fund Focuses on IC Industry Chain</b></p><p>After raising more than 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2nd, Kingsoft Software announced that its subsidiaries Wuhan Jinshan, Xiaomi Beijing, Xiaomi Wuhan, etc. had entered into partnership agreements with other investors about the establishment of equity investment funds in integrated circuit-related fields, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Xiaomi and Jinshan of Lei Jun Department, the LP of the fund also includes Beijing Guiding Fund and Yizhuang Guotou with Beijing's state-owned assets background, Tianjin Haichuang of Tianjin state-owned assets Beijing, Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Xingzheng Investment, Zhaoyi Innovation, etc.</p><p>Compared with the first fund-raising in July last year, the fund has five new faces: Wuhan Jinshan, Beijing Guidance Fund, Nasing Venture Capital, Diao Micro and Xinyin Haohong. The fund scale also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in the initial financing to 9.03 billion yuan, close to the target scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the industrial and commercial information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Zhizao Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Zhizao\"), which was incorporated on September 18, 2021 and filed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the role of the fund, Kingsoft Software said that it is mainly engaged in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in unlisted companies.</p><p>The main target is integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors, covering new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, and upstream and downstream applications and supply chains related to mobile end consumer goods and intelligent devices.</p><p>It is not difficult to find that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current business mobile phones and cars. All along, most of Xiaomi's investment businesses have basically focused on its main business and future development direction, carrying out technological upgrading and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automobiles and semiconductors.</p><p>Since the announcement of car manufacturing, Xiaomi has laid out a number of enterprises related to the automobile industry chain through investment and shareholding. According to the previous statistics of Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 enterprises in the field of smart cars, including 17 enterprises in intelligent driving, 13 enterprises in intelligent electric and 6 enterprises in intelligent cockpit, of which 22 enterprises were newly invested in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investment actions were completed through Xiaomi Yangtze River Industrial Investment Fund. After the establishment of Xiaomi Zhizao, it focused more on the collaborative investment direction of Xiaomi's automobile business.</p><p>According to public information, more than ten projects invested by Xiaomi Zhizao at present involve the automobile industry chain, including semiconductors, power batteries, core equipment parts and other links in the automobile industry chain.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's layout of the upstream and downstream fields of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as the previous layout of Xiaomi ecological chain. This is conducive to further enhancing the vertical integration capability of the vehicle business and ensuring the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qthkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lei Jun's New Story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLei Jun's New Story\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全天候科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of the ecological chain,</b></b><b>But rather</b><b><b>Tell the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>A few years ago, Xiaomi built an ecological chain map, laid out it in many smart device fields, and gradually let Mijia terminal intelligent products penetrate into various IoT markets.</p><p>After the smart phone market entered the second half, Lei Jun no longer focused on the story of the ecological chain, but on the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun told the story of \"supply chain\" to the \"two sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, a deputy to the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, including one on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested that we should encourage and support the science and technology innovation industry chain and promote the planning and layout of bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched the second round of financing, and the fund-raising scale has increased from more than 6 billion yuan last year to more than 9 billion yuan. The investment objectives of this fund focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream fields.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about the supply chain has made phased progress. According to the previous statistics of Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 enterprises in the field of smart cars.</p><p>All along, \"cost performance\" is the deepest label on Xiaomi. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for \"insufficient self-research technical ability\". The investment in upstream core supply chain enterprises or technology enterprises shows Xiaomi's determination to strengthen the right to speak in the supply chain.</p><p>The opening of supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>\"Voice\" for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>After its debut in August last year, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from the recent dynamics of Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs in the track of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>Among the suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that at present, China has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of bionic humanoid robots, but it still faces challenges such as improving the performance of core components, insufficient application demand traction, lack of large-scale mass production capacity, imperfect application ecology and supporting support system, etc.</p><p>To this end, he suggested: encourage and support the science and technology industry chain, and promote the planning and layout of bionic humanoid robot industry; Support whole machine enterprises to take the lead in establishing a national innovation consortium and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecology of bionic humanoid robots, and accelerate the cultivation of scenario applications.</p><p>In June last year, under the effect of Musk's \"humanoid robot will be launched\", the related concept of bionic humanoid robot became a hot concept in the domestic capital market, and this subdivision track also became the hottest track in the robot industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi released the prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"Tieda\") at Lei Jun's annual lecture before Tesla, and this enthusiasm reached its peak.</p><p>CyberOne launched by Xiaomi is not a PPT or a prop. It is a prototype that can be taken out and can interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per unit, and it can't yet achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that the technical integration of bionic robots was the highest and the most difficult, and Xiaomi was still in the first stage of its infancy.</p><p>Turning its attention to foreign countries, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime Optimus released by Tesla at AI Day last year also failed to reach the previously claimed level. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk, but I think it will in a couple of weeks.\"</p><p>Musk previously made a bold statement: The target price of Optimus Optimus may be less than $20,000, and more than one million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed the recent progress of Optimus Optimus at Tesla Investor Day: \"Not working properly, though things are improving.\"</p><p>Tesla is still increasing its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology found that Tesla China recently released job recruitment information in the direction of robotics, including automation control engineer (robot), electrical design engineer-robot development and its application direction.</p><p>The outlook given by institutions is tempting. Marketsandmarkets, a global market research firm, forecasts that the global humanoid robot market will rise from US$1.5 billion in 2022 to US$17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become another entrance after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>But there is no denying that the bionic humanoid robot track is a track that requires long-term investment.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, there are still many realities that have to be solved in front of this track, such as core components, the underlying operating system and chip of robots, system design software, etc.</p><p><b>Ten Billion Fund Focuses on IC Industry Chain</b></p><p>After raising more than 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2nd, Kingsoft Software announced that its subsidiaries Wuhan Jinshan, Xiaomi Beijing, Xiaomi Wuhan, etc. had entered into partnership agreements with other investors about the establishment of equity investment funds in integrated circuit-related fields, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Xiaomi and Jinshan of Lei Jun Department, the LP of the fund also includes Beijing Guiding Fund and Yizhuang Guotou with Beijing's state-owned assets background, Tianjin Haichuang of Tianjin state-owned assets Beijing, Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Xingzheng Investment, Zhaoyi Innovation, etc.</p><p>Compared with the first fund-raising in July last year, the fund has five new faces: Wuhan Jinshan, Beijing Guidance Fund, Nasing Venture Capital, Diao Micro and Xinyin Haohong. The fund scale also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in the initial financing to 9.03 billion yuan, close to the target scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the industrial and commercial information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Zhizao Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Zhizao\"), which was incorporated on September 18, 2021 and filed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the role of the fund, Kingsoft Software said that it is mainly engaged in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in unlisted companies.</p><p>The main target is integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors, covering new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, and upstream and downstream applications and supply chains related to mobile end consumer goods and intelligent devices.</p><p>It is not difficult to find that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current business mobile phones and cars. All along, most of Xiaomi's investment businesses have basically focused on its main business and future development direction, carrying out technological upgrading and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automobiles and semiconductors.</p><p>Since the announcement of car manufacturing, Xiaomi has laid out a number of enterprises related to the automobile industry chain through investment and shareholding. According to the previous statistics of Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 enterprises in the field of smart cars, including 17 enterprises in intelligent driving, 13 enterprises in intelligent electric and 6 enterprises in intelligent cockpit, of which 22 enterprises were newly invested in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investment actions were completed through Xiaomi Yangtze River Industrial Investment Fund. After the establishment of Xiaomi Zhizao, it focused more on the collaborative investment direction of Xiaomi's automobile business.</p><p>According to public information, more than ten projects invested by Xiaomi Zhizao at present involve the automobile industry chain, including semiconductors, power batteries, core equipment parts and other links in the automobile industry chain.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's layout of the upstream and downstream fields of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as the previous layout of Xiaomi ecological chain. This is conducive to further enhancing the vertical integration capability of the vehicle business and ensuring the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320\">全天候科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb44f0df3fb7312ee913474e800cc495","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154440961","content_text":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。近日，雷军将“供应链”的故事讲上了“两会”。2023年，作为全国人大代表的雷军准备了3份建议案，其中一份关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展。雷军建议，鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局。同样在这个月，“小米百亿基金”开展了第二轮融资，募资规模已从去年60多亿增至90多亿元。而这支基金的投资目标着重于集成电路以及相关上游及下游领域。小米关于供应链的故事已取得阶段性进展。国金证券此前统计数据显示，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家。一直以来，“性价比”是小米身上最深的标签。这也成为小米被外界诟病“自研技术能力不足”的原因。而对上游核心供应链企业或技术企业的投资，表明小米希望强供应链话语权的决心。供应链布局的开启，是雷军和小米试图抓住市场机遇的一次蓄力与尝试。雷军的新故事能否讲成？为人形机器人产业链“发声”去年8月亮相之后，有关小米仿生人形机器人CyberOne的消息一直不多。不过最近从小米传出的动态来看，雷军希望能在仿生人形机器人这个赛道上有更多的突破。在关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展的建议中，雷军认为，目前我国在仿生人形机器人核心技术方面已取得关键突破，但仍然面临核心部组件性能有待提升、应用需求牵引不足、不具备规模化量产能力、应用生态和配套支撑体系不健全等挑战。为此，他建议：鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局；支持整机企业牵头创建国家创新联合体，加强核心技术联合攻关；构建仿生人形机器人开放产业生态，加速场景应用培育。去年6月，在马斯克“将推出人形机器人”效应下，仿生人形机器人相关概念成为国内资本市场上的热门概念，这个细分赛道也成为机器人行业最热的赛道。两个月后，小米先于特斯拉在雷军年度演讲会上发布原型仿生机器人CyberOne（内部艺名“铁大”），这股热情也随之达到峰值。小米推出的CyberOne不是PPT，也不是道具，是可以拿出手的原型机，能与人进行互动。遗憾的是，CyberOne的成本每台高达六、七十万元，尚无法实现量产。彼时，雷军坦承，形仿生机器人的技术集成度最高、难度也最大，小米还处于刚刚起步的第一阶段。将视线转向国外，特斯拉在去年AI Day上发布的人形机器人擎天柱Optimus，同样没有达到此前宣称的水平。用马斯克的话来说，“它还没有完全准备好走路，但我认为它会在几周内走路。”马斯克此前放出豪言：擎天柱Optimus的目标价格可能低于2万美元，还要量产百万台之上。然而，马斯克在特斯拉投资者日上透露了擎天柱Optimus的最近进展：“无法正常工作，不过情况正在好转。”特斯拉仍在不断加大关于人形机器人的投入。全天候科技发现，特斯拉中国近期发布了机器人方向的岗位招聘信息，包括自动化控制工程师（机器人）、电气设计工程师-机器人开发及其应用方向。机构给出的前景很诱人。全球市场研究机构Marketsandmarkets预测，全球人形机器人市场规模将从2022年的15亿美元提升至2027年的173亿美元。民生证券认为，人形机器人有望成为继手机、汽车后的又一入口，商业价值巨大。但不可否认，仿生人形机器人赛道是一个需要长期投入的赛道。就国内而言，摆在这条赛道面前且不得不解决的现实还不少，如核心零部件、机器人底层操作系统与芯片、系统设计软件等。百亿基金聚焦集成电路产业链在去年首次募资超60亿元后，“小米百亿基金”在这个月又展开了第二轮融资。3月2日，金山软件公告称，公司附属公司武汉金山、小米北京、小米武汉等，与其他投资者订立合伙协议，内容有关成立集成电路相关领域股权投资基金，预期总规模100亿元。除雷军系的小米、金山外，该基金LP还包含北京国资背景的北京市引导基金、亦庄国投，天津国资北京的天津海创，以及海南华盈开泰、广州华多、兴证投资、兆易创新等。相较去年7月首次募资，该基金多5位新面孔：武汉金山、北京市引导基金、纳星创投、帝奥微、信银浩鸿。基金规模也从首次融资的63.3亿元增至90.3亿元，接近百亿目标规模。工商信息显示，该基金全名为：北京小米智造股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“小米智造”），2021年9月18日注册成立，2022年4月6日完成备案。对于该基金的作用，金山软件称：主要从事股权投资或准股权投资，或对非上市公司进行投资相关活动。主要对象便是集成电路，以及相关上游及下游领域，涵盖新一代信息科技、 智能制造、新材料、人工智能、显示器及显示装置、汽车电子，以及有关移动终端消费品、智能装置的上游及下游应用及供应链。从中不难发现，这些与小米当前业务手机、汽车密切相关。一直以来，小米的大部分投资业务基本围绕其主营业务和未来发展方向，进行技术提升和产业链布局，例如人工智能、物联网、汽车和半导体等。自宣布造车以来，小米就通过投资及入股等方式，布局多家汽车产业链相关企业。据国金证券此前统计，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家，其中智能驾驶布局17家企业，智能电动布局13家企业，智能座舱布局6家企业，当中有22家企业是2021年新增投资。此前，小米多数半导体投资动作是通过小米长江产业投资基金完成的。小米智造成立后，其更聚焦小米汽车业务协同投资方向。公开信息显示，小米智造目前对外投资的十余个项目，均涉及汽车产业链，包括汽车产业链半导体、动力电池、核心设备零件等多个环节。有行业人士分析认为，雷军布局集成电路产业上下游领域，与此前布局小米生态链如出一辙。这有利于其进一步提升整车业务的垂直整合能力，保障汽车关键零部件和软件系统供应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533102,"gmtCreate":1678019336606,"gmtModify":1678019340244,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533102","repostId":"2317152105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533357,"gmtCreate":1678019323780,"gmtModify":1678019326433,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533357","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automobile market in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automobile market gradually climbs, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low price and high safety. It also improves the battery capacity through technical upgrading, thus extending the original cruising range. In recent years, it has been very favored by car companies.</p><p>Last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China, according to research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence; In the United States, it was only 9%, or even zero in the previous year. But that trend is about to change — and there are signs that the battery technology, popular in China, is making inroads into electric vehicle markets in the U.S. and Japan, and grabbing market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue its expansion following the commissioning of a new $1.6 billion facility next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; In the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will improve to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that in terms of the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>US battery start-up Kore Power also expects growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US. The company's planned Arizona facility in late 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>etc. are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford announced that the two parties will build a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA to cooperate in producing lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to 3.5 billion US dollars. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the whole vehicle, with some equipment coming from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs, an executive of the company said in February.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter Japanese car market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3rd, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched the plan to build the largest battery factory in Japan, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households in one day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX (Minato-ku, Tokyo), a renewable energy start-up founded in 2021. As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than the current mainstream of stationary storage batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging devices in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Expansion</h2>The data shows that Chinese enterprises occupy an overwhelming advantage in the field of vehicle batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>According to data from South Korea's SNE survey, in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The first two are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the speed at which the EV market is expanding. Since 2010, China has granted subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location of battery factories, which has accelerated the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's CATL, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is taking the lead.</p><p>In July 2022, CATL's chief scientist, Kai Wu, said the company's battery can give a pure electric vehicle a range of more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch \"M3P\" batteries improved from lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2023. Range can exceed major pure EVs such as Nissan's 'Leaf'.</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, a form of lithium-ion batteries, are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the U.S. because it had worse endurance than batteries like the NMC, but could be charged more times before performance dropped significantly. For American drivers, range is seen as too important to sacrifice it for price, says Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have advised you to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As EV sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also skyrocketed. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are terrible. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to where they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As the patent expires, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>Additionally, the adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, driven by federal government subsidies, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery endurance. From the point of view of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCapturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automobile market in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automobile market gradually climbs, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low price and high safety. It also improves the battery capacity through technical upgrading, thus extending the original cruising range. In recent years, it has been very favored by car companies.</p><p>Last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China, according to research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence; In the United States, it was only 9%, or even zero in the previous year. But that trend is about to change — and there are signs that the battery technology, popular in China, is making inroads into electric vehicle markets in the U.S. and Japan, and grabbing market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue its expansion following the commissioning of a new $1.6 billion facility next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; In the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will improve to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that in terms of the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>US battery start-up Kore Power also expects growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US. The company's planned Arizona facility in late 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>etc. are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford announced that the two parties will build a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA to cooperate in producing lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to 3.5 billion US dollars. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the whole vehicle, with some equipment coming from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs, an executive of the company said in February.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter Japanese car market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3rd, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched the plan to build the largest battery factory in Japan, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households in one day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX (Minato-ku, Tokyo), a renewable energy start-up founded in 2021. As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than the current mainstream of stationary storage batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging devices in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Expansion</h2>The data shows that Chinese enterprises occupy an overwhelming advantage in the field of vehicle batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>According to data from South Korea's SNE survey, in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The first two are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the speed at which the EV market is expanding. Since 2010, China has granted subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location of battery factories, which has accelerated the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's CATL, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is taking the lead.</p><p>In July 2022, CATL's chief scientist, Kai Wu, said the company's battery can give a pure electric vehicle a range of more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch \"M3P\" batteries improved from lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2023. Range can exceed major pure EVs such as Nissan's 'Leaf'.</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, a form of lithium-ion batteries, are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the U.S. because it had worse endurance than batteries like the NMC, but could be charged more times before performance dropped significantly. For American drivers, range is seen as too important to sacrifice it for price, says Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have advised you to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As EV sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also skyrocketed. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are terrible. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to where they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As the patent expires, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>Additionally, the adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, driven by federal government subsidies, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery endurance. From the point of view of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533953,"gmtCreate":1678019317273,"gmtModify":1678019321152,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533953","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automobile market in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automobile market gradually climbs, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low price and high safety. It also improves the battery capacity through technical upgrading, thus extending the original cruising range. In recent years, it has been very favored by car companies.</p><p>Last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China, according to research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence; In the United States, it was only 9%, or even zero in the previous year. But that trend is about to change — and there are signs that the battery technology, popular in China, is making inroads into electric vehicle markets in the U.S. and Japan, and grabbing market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue its expansion following the commissioning of a new $1.6 billion facility next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; In the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will improve to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that in terms of the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>US battery start-up Kore Power also expects growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US. The company's planned Arizona facility in late 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>etc. are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford announced that the two parties will build a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA to cooperate in producing lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to 3.5 billion US dollars. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the whole vehicle, with some equipment coming from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs, an executive of the company said in February.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter Japanese car market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3rd, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched the plan to build the largest battery factory in Japan, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households in one day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX (Minato-ku, Tokyo), a renewable energy start-up founded in 2021. As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than the current mainstream of stationary storage batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging devices in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Expansion</h2>The data shows that Chinese enterprises occupy an overwhelming advantage in the field of vehicle batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>According to data from South Korea's SNE survey, in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The first two are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the speed at which the EV market is expanding. Since 2010, China has granted subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location of battery factories, which has accelerated the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's CATL, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is taking the lead.</p><p>In July 2022, CATL's chief scientist, Kai Wu, said the company's battery can give a pure electric vehicle a range of more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch \"M3P\" batteries improved from lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2023. Range can exceed major pure EVs such as Nissan's 'Leaf'.</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, a form of lithium-ion batteries, are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the U.S. because it had worse endurance than batteries like the NMC, but could be charged more times before performance dropped significantly. For American drivers, range is seen as too important to sacrifice it for price, says Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have advised you to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As EV sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also skyrocketed. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are terrible. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to where they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As the patent expires, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>Additionally, the adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, driven by federal government subsidies, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery endurance. From the point of view of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCapturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automobile market in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automobile market gradually climbs, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low price and high safety. It also improves the battery capacity through technical upgrading, thus extending the original cruising range. In recent years, it has been very favored by car companies.</p><p>Last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China, according to research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence; In the United States, it was only 9%, or even zero in the previous year. But that trend is about to change — and there are signs that the battery technology, popular in China, is making inroads into electric vehicle markets in the U.S. and Japan, and grabbing market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue its expansion following the commissioning of a new $1.6 billion facility next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; In the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will improve to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that in terms of the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>US battery start-up Kore Power also expects growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US. The company's planned Arizona facility in late 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>etc. are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford announced that the two parties will build a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA to cooperate in producing lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to 3.5 billion US dollars. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the whole vehicle, with some equipment coming from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs, an executive of the company said in February.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter Japanese car market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3rd, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched the plan to build the largest battery factory in Japan, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households in one day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX (Minato-ku, Tokyo), a renewable energy start-up founded in 2021. As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than the current mainstream of stationary storage batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging devices in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Expansion</h2>The data shows that Chinese enterprises occupy an overwhelming advantage in the field of vehicle batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>According to data from South Korea's SNE survey, in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The first two are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the speed at which the EV market is expanding. Since 2010, China has granted subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location of battery factories, which has accelerated the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's CATL, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is taking the lead.</p><p>In July 2022, CATL's chief scientist, Kai Wu, said the company's battery can give a pure electric vehicle a range of more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch \"M3P\" batteries improved from lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2023. Range can exceed major pure EVs such as Nissan's 'Leaf'.</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, a form of lithium-ion batteries, are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the U.S. because it had worse endurance than batteries like the NMC, but could be charged more times before performance dropped significantly. For American drivers, range is seen as too important to sacrifice it for price, says Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have advised you to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As EV sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also skyrocketed. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are terrible. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to where they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As the patent expires, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>Additionally, the adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, driven by federal government subsidies, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery endurance. From the point of view of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940214961,"gmtCreate":1677945142254,"gmtModify":1677945145645,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940214961","repostId":"2316133358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940165254,"gmtCreate":1677758940478,"gmtModify":1677758943236,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940165254","repostId":"1104041863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104041863","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677758577,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104041863?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-02 20:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Best Buy Q4 Revenue Down 10% Y/Y, FY 2024 Guidance Misses Estimates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104041863","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月2日，百思买公布了2023财年第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，百思买Q4营收同比下降10%至147.35亿美元，略好于市场预期的147.2亿美元;净利润为4.95亿美元，上年同期为6.26亿美元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBY\">Best Buy</a>Announced its fourth quarter and full year financial results for fiscal 2023. According to the financial report, Best Buy's Q4 revenue dropped by 10% year-on-year to $14.735 billion, slightly better than the market expectation of $14.72 billion; Net profit was US$495 million, compared with US$626 million in the same period last year, down 21% year-on-year; Adjusted earnings per share of $2.61 were better than the market estimate of $2.10, compared to $2.73 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>Q4 gross profit was $2.94 billion, compared with $3.313 billion in the same period last year; Gross profit margin was 20.0%, as compared to 20.2% for the same period last year. Operating profit was $597 million, compared with $803 million in the same period last year; Operating margin was 4.1%, compared to 4.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>By business, revenue from domestic business was US$13.531 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year, mainly due to a 9.6% year-on-year decrease in comparable sales; Of these, the decline in comparable sales of computers, home theaters, appliances and mobile phones was the biggest driver, offsetting the increase in comparable sales in the gaming and tablet categories. Revenue from international operations was US$1,204 million, down 12% year-over-year, mainly attributable to a 5.7% year-over-year decrease in comparable sales and a negative impact of foreign exchange rates of approximately 570 basis points.</p><p>For the full year of fiscal 2023, Best Buy's revenue was $46.298 billion, down 11% year over year; Net profit was US$1.419 billion, compared with US$2.454 billion in the same period of last year, down 42% year-on-year; Adjusted earnings per share were $7.08 compared to $10.01 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>Looking ahead, Best Buy expects full-year revenue of $43.8 billion-$45.2 billion in fiscal 2024, missing analysts' expectations of $45.69 billion; Comparable sales are expected to decline by 3.0%-6.0% year-over-year, higher than analysts' expectations of a 1.7% year-over-year decline; It expects adjusted earnings of $5.70-$6.50 per share, missing analysts' estimates of $6.72. \"The broader macroeconomic headwinds and their impact on consumers will continue to be felt in the consumer electronics industry as we enter fiscal 2024,\" said Matt Bilunas, the company's CEO.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bec2d0a3740885a4b9a40fbaf735192\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"869\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After earnings, Best Buy fell 3.6% premarket and has narrowed to 1%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebae3d342481c8a53cb5dcdda7c3bc2\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Buy Q4 Revenue Down 10% Y/Y, FY 2024 Guidance Misses Estimates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Buy Q4 Revenue Down 10% Y/Y, FY 2024 Guidance Misses Estimates\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-02 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 2,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBY\">Best Buy</a>Announced its fourth quarter and full year financial results for fiscal 2023. According to the financial report, Best Buy's Q4 revenue dropped by 10% year-on-year to $14.735 billion, slightly better than the market expectation of $14.72 billion; Net profit was US$495 million, compared with US$626 million in the same period last year, down 21% year-on-year; Adjusted earnings per share of $2.61 were better than the market estimate of $2.10, compared to $2.73 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>Q4 gross profit was $2.94 billion, compared with $3.313 billion in the same period last year; Gross profit margin was 20.0%, as compared to 20.2% for the same period last year. Operating profit was $597 million, compared with $803 million in the same period last year; Operating margin was 4.1%, compared to 4.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>By business, revenue from domestic business was US$13.531 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year, mainly due to a 9.6% year-on-year decrease in comparable sales; Of these, the decline in comparable sales of computers, home theaters, appliances and mobile phones was the biggest driver, offsetting the increase in comparable sales in the gaming and tablet categories. Revenue from international operations was US$1,204 million, down 12% year-over-year, mainly attributable to a 5.7% year-over-year decrease in comparable sales and a negative impact of foreign exchange rates of approximately 570 basis points.</p><p>For the full year of fiscal 2023, Best Buy's revenue was $46.298 billion, down 11% year over year; Net profit was US$1.419 billion, compared with US$2.454 billion in the same period of last year, down 42% year-on-year; Adjusted earnings per share were $7.08 compared to $10.01 in the prior-year quarter.</p><p>Looking ahead, Best Buy expects full-year revenue of $43.8 billion-$45.2 billion in fiscal 2024, missing analysts' expectations of $45.69 billion; Comparable sales are expected to decline by 3.0%-6.0% year-over-year, higher than analysts' expectations of a 1.7% year-over-year decline; It expects adjusted earnings of $5.70-$6.50 per share, missing analysts' estimates of $6.72. \"The broader macroeconomic headwinds and their impact on consumers will continue to be felt in the consumer electronics industry as we enter fiscal 2024,\" said Matt Bilunas, the company's CEO.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bec2d0a3740885a4b9a40fbaf735192\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"869\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After earnings, Best Buy fell 3.6% premarket and has narrowed to 1%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebae3d342481c8a53cb5dcdda7c3bc2\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b2c0949e3b18adb17e6e40d830d4d9","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BBY":"百思买","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104041863","content_text":"3月2日，百思买公布了2023财年第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，百思买Q4营收同比下降10%至147.35亿美元，略好于市场预期的147.2亿美元;净利润为4.95亿美元，上年同期为6.26亿美元，同比下降21%;调整后每股收益为2.61美元，好于市场预期的2.10美元，上年同期为2.73美元。Q4毛利润为29.40亿美元，上年同期为33.13亿美元;毛利率为20.0%，上年同期为20.2%。运营利润为5.97亿美元，上年同期为8.03亿美元;运营利润率为4.1%，上年同期为4.9%。按业务划分，国内业务营收为135.31亿美元，同比下降9.8%，主要原因是可比销售额同比下降9.6%;其中，电脑、家庭影院、家电和移动电话的可比销售额下滑是最大驱动因素，抵消了游戏和平板电脑类别可比销售额的增长。国际业务营收为12.04亿美元，同比下降12%，这主要归因于可比销售额同比下降5.7%、以及外汇汇率约570个基点的负面影响。2023财年全年，百思买营收为462.98亿美元，同比下降11%;净利润为14.19亿美元，上年同期为24.54亿美元，同比下降42%;调整后每股收益为7.08美元，上年同期为10.01美元。展望未来，百思买预计，2024财年全年营收为438亿-452亿美元，不及分析师预期的456.9亿美元;预计可比销售额将同比下降3.0%-6.0%，高于分析师预期的同比下降1.7%;预计调整后每股收益为5.70-6.50美元，不及分析师预期的6.72美元。该公司首席执行官Matt Bilunas表示：“随着我们进入2024财年，消费电子行业将继续感受到更广泛的宏观经济逆风及其对消费者的影响。”财报公布后，百思买盘前一度跌3.6%，现收窄至1%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940956349,"gmtCreate":1677662739182,"gmtModify":1677671507968,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940956349","repostId":"2316958326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9096255851,"gmtCreate":1644408027408,"gmtModify":1676533922187,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096255851","repostId":"1196471828","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196471828","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644395848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196471828?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-09 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196471828","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfol","content":"<div>\n<p>Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 16:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSLR":"第一太阳能","NEE":"新纪元能源","ORA":"奥玛特科技","RUN":"Sunrun Inc.","GE":"GE航空航天","ED":"爱迪生联合电气"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196471828","content_text":"Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to the decline in value for many renewable energy stocks. For one, the wind and solar industries haven’t received the sorts of subsidies that traders were hoping for from the Biden Administration.For another, many green energy companies don’t generate much in the way of near-term profits or cash flows. Thus, they’ve gotten caught up in the broad market-based selling around all sorts of speculative growth companies.It’s certainly not all blue skies ahead for the renewable energy industry. Shortcomings — particularly as it relates to lack of storage capacity — have become painfully apparent in recent months.Look at thespiraling electricity crisisthis winter in Europe for one example. Still, after seeing many renewable energy stocks drop by 50% or more, it’s time to take a fresh look.Here are seven names that could stand out, even during this volatile period for the renewable energy industry:SunrunFirst SolarNextEraConsolidated EdisonOrmat TechnologiesAtlantica Sustainable InfrastructureGeneral ElectricSunrunSource: IgorGolovniov / Shutterstock.comSolar energy stocks were blazing hot at the beginning of the Biden Administration. Between the November 2020 election and Inauguration Day 2021, the price of Sunrun stock soared almost 52%.Particularly with Democrats in control of the House of Representatives and Senate, in addition to the presidency, a robust era of clean energy spending was supposed to commence.However, there’s been limited legislative traction for green energy. Much of Washington D.C.’s attention has understandably turned to more immediate issues such as dealing with the societal and economic impacts of the Covid-19 crisis.Attempts at a grand series of Build Back Better infrastructure bills have gotten pruned down to a much-smaller package.This has hit the solar industry hard with smaller, more-speculative names like SunRun getting walloped. RUN stock is down nearly 70% over the past year.Sunrun operates in the home solar space and has shown incredible growth — north of 30% — despite already having a large installed base.However, Sunrun has gotten hit on all fronts. The lack of expected subsidy support has dimmed near-term expectations. Meanwhile, supply chain and inflation issues are a threat to crush profit margins.In addition, the company borrowed heavily during brighter times and now faces growing investor skepticism around its balance sheet.There’s plenty of risk at SunRun to be sure. However, with the stock down from a 52-week high of $85 to just $25 now, RUN stock is one of the highest-voltage ways to get exposure to a potential solar industry rebound.FirstSolarSource: IgorGolovniov / Shutterstock.comFirst Solar is a more conservative way to play the solar industry. It is one of the leading manufacturers of panels.It’s not nearly as much of a growth play as something like Sunrun. However, it’s actually highly profitable, which is something of a rarity in the solar industry at the moment.The company will have earned roughly $3.50 per share for full-year 2021 once it announces results later this month. That will put the stock around 20x full-year 2021 earnings.Analysts see First Solar’s earnings dropping in 2022. After that, however, the consensus has 2023 earnings recovering to 2021 levels, giving First Solar a solid base of profitability in the intermediate term.Some of First Solar’s strategic advantage is due to using a differentiated technology for making its panels as opposed to commodity producers overseas.Another element of its success came from the Trump Administration’s move to slap tariffs on imported solar panels. Biden’s team recently announced that it will easebut not altogether eliminatethese tariffs.That’s an additional win for First Solar, which has invested heavily in its Ohio-based manufacturing facilities.NextEraSource: madamF / Shutterstock.comAnother way to get involved in the renewable energy wave is through power utilities. Not all utilities have a strong renewable energy angle. A few stand out, however. Florida-based NextEra is one of the leaders in solar power deployment nationally.It does have a traditional regulated utility business that offers stable predictable cash flows.Where things get more exciting is with its separate arm in the construction and design of large-scale renewable power projects around the country. This gives NextEra an attractive source of additional income.These development projects tend to be in a competitive market and thus can earn higher returns on equity than traditional utility power where returns are generally set by state regulators.Additionally, NextEra has benefited in a huge way from passive index fund flows. NextEra scores highly on environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards and thus is a leading investment for many funds in the socially-conscious, green, and millennial categories.As more and more money floods into these ESG-type investments, NextEra should be one of the largest recipients of these inflows.Consolidated EdisonSource: Pand P Studio / Shutterstock.comConsolidated Edison is another of the pioneers in the renewable utility space. The New York City power company is one of the world’s oldest power utilities.Even with its storied history, it has managed to keep up with the times. Indeed, today, it’s now the second-largest operator of utility-scale solar power in the U.S.That’s good in its own right. Given the political climate on the East Coast, the renewable focus is particularly useful. ConEd is already ahead of the curve in terms of upping its investments in green energy while other utilities will have to rush to meet phase-outs around the use of dirtier fuels.\\From an investor’s perspective, ConEd is a classic growth and income holding. The company has increased its dividend for 48 years in a row, making it one of the few Dividend Aristocrats in the power utility sector. ED stock has delivered steadily rising dividends and some capital appreciation for decades, and its quick adoption of renewables should keep that streak going for many years to come.Ormat TechnologiesSource: riekephotos / Shutterstock.comOrmat Technologies is the global leader in geothermal power generation. The company was founded way back in 1965 and has developed more than 190 power plants over the decades. It has been in the green energy game for a long time, giving it a level of domain expertise and cyclical knowledge that most newer rivals don’t yet possess.For a long time, analysts viewed geothermal as a fringe alternative in the power generation business. However, it has really had its moment to shine over the past few years. That’s due to geothermal’s much higher reliability. Geothermal is almost always available, making it a baseload generator that doesn’t experience the sorts of drastic fluctuations in supply that you see with wind or solar.Sure, geothermal has drawbacks. It is often in remote locations, costs can be somewhat unattractive at times, and it’s harder to build at vast scale compared to other alternatives. However, in a world that is rapidly discovering some drawbacks with intermittent green power sources, geothermal has carved out a solid space for itself.Ormat in particular is profitable and has an attractive business outlook. ORA stock was fairly quiet between the mid-2000s and 2015. However, since then, shares as much as quintupled before hitting their peak in 2021. Since then, like so many growth stocks, Ormat’s shares have sharply from their peak. However, the long-term trajectory should keep pointing upward.Atlantica Sustainable InfrastructureSource: Chart by Josh EnomotoOne of the more interesting trends in natural resources of the past decade has been royalty companies. Specialty finance firms will provide financing to an oil & gas or mining company, and, in return, get a stream of mineral production once the project comes online.Atlantica is offering investors a similar sort of structure in the renewable energy space. It finances renewable energy projects that are set to be built. After the renewable power generation asset is up and running, Atlantica offloads energy to end purchasers and gets to keep a favorable spread. This gives investors a royalty structure that should deliver steadier returns and a solid dividend from what has historically been a volatile industry.Atlantica does have some other assets as well, namely investments in water, transmission lines, and natural gas. However, roughly 75% of its assets are in renewables such as wind and geothermal. AY stock currently offers a 5.5% dividend yield, making it an interest choice for green energy investors that also want some immediate income.General ElectricSource: testing / Shutterstock.comFinally, for investors that want a broader industrial play with emphasis on green energy exposure, don’t forget about GE.General Electric has been on a multi-year journey to turn its business around and rectify the errors of past management teams. This transformation continues at aggressive speed under star CEO Larry Culp. GE is unloading its large aircraft leasing business and has several more asset divestures and spins on the way.It’s a complicated company, and the name GE leaves many investors with a bad taste. However, operating results are picking up steam and analysts see it as quite cheap. Morningstar’s Joshua Aguilar currently pegsfair value at $133versus a current share price around $100. That’s an attractive discount, and GE stock gives investors exposure to solid power assets such as its wind turbines and power grid systems solutions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ED":0.9,"NEE":0.9,"AY":0.9,"GE":0.9,"FSLR":0.9,"ORA":0.9,"RUN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078099688,"gmtCreate":1657591568644,"gmtModify":1676536031497,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"no","listText":"no","text":"no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078099688","repostId":"2250956995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2250956995","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657586328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250956995?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-12 08:38","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The bearish mood is bursting! U.S. equity inverse leveraged ETF inflows of $1.4 billion","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250956995","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，由于衰退风险和对二季度财报季的悲观预期，市场看空情绪加剧，交易员纷纷涌入做空美股的交易所交易基金。最近一个交易日，ProShares三倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF净流入2.475. ProShares三倍做空标普500ETF的资产规模达16亿美元，自6月初以来资产规模大约翻了一番。投资者已连续12个交易日向该基金注入大量资金，在此期间累计流入8.75亿美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that due to recession risks and pessimistic expectations for the second-quarter earnings season, the bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, and traders have flocked to exchange-traded funds that short U.S. stocks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETF</a>)。</p><p>In the most recent trading day, ProShares tripled short the Nasdaq Index ETF (SQQQ.US) with a net inflow of $247.5 million. It was the largest single-day net inflow to the fund in more than a month and the fourth consecutive day of inflows, totaling about $518 million. The fund is betting against the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.</p><p>Bears aren't just on tech stocks. ProShares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPXU\">Triple Short S&P 500 ETF</a>(SPXU.US) has $1.6 billion in assets, which has roughly doubled since early June. Investors have pumped large amounts of money into the fund for 12 consecutive trading days, accumulating $875 million in inflows during that period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c496bfba470ff9a017dba173c16989\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SQQQ seeks investment returns equivalent to three times the Nasdaq 100's inverse day performance. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 27% year-to-date, while SQQQ has surged more than 77% as rising interest rates hurt growth prospects for tech stocks. The SPXU, which tracks the triple inverse day performance of the S&P 500, is up 53% this year, while the S&P 500 is down 19%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick said bearish sentiment has intensified in the market and \"it is wise to think that aggressive traders will shift their attention to hedging or speculate on the decline.\"</p><p>Decades-high inflation in the United States, a wave of monetary tightening and the risk of a global economic slowdown have all kept investors bearish on equities, even as $18 trillion wiped off global stocks in the first half of the year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The chief U.S. equity strategist expects the S&P 500 could fall to 3,000 in a recession, down 22% from current levels.</p><p>Sosnick of Interactive Brokers said, \"Buying the dip doesn't work. When it does, it's usually for a short period of time.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bearish mood is bursting! U.S. equity inverse leveraged ETF inflows of $1.4 billion</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bearish mood is bursting! U.S. equity inverse leveraged ETF inflows of $1.4 billion\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-12 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that due to recession risks and pessimistic expectations for the second-quarter earnings season, the bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, and traders have flocked to exchange-traded funds that short U.S. stocks (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETF</a>)。</p><p>In the most recent trading day, ProShares tripled short the Nasdaq Index ETF (SQQQ.US) with a net inflow of $247.5 million. It was the largest single-day net inflow to the fund in more than a month and the fourth consecutive day of inflows, totaling about $518 million. The fund is betting against the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100.</p><p>Bears aren't just on tech stocks. ProShares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPXU\">Triple Short S&P 500 ETF</a>(SPXU.US) has $1.6 billion in assets, which has roughly doubled since early June. Investors have pumped large amounts of money into the fund for 12 consecutive trading days, accumulating $875 million in inflows during that period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c496bfba470ff9a017dba173c16989\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SQQQ seeks investment returns equivalent to three times the Nasdaq 100's inverse day performance. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 27% year-to-date, while SQQQ has surged more than 77% as rising interest rates hurt growth prospects for tech stocks. The SPXU, which tracks the triple inverse day performance of the S&P 500, is up 53% this year, while the S&P 500 is down 19%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick said bearish sentiment has intensified in the market and \"it is wise to think that aggressive traders will shift their attention to hedging or speculate on the decline.\"</p><p>Decades-high inflation in the United States, a wave of monetary tightening and the risk of a global economic slowdown have all kept investors bearish on equities, even as $18 trillion wiped off global stocks in the first half of the year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The chief U.S. equity strategist expects the S&P 500 could fall to 3,000 in a recession, down 22% from current levels.</p><p>Sosnick of Interactive Brokers said, \"Buying the dip doesn't work. When it does, it's usually for a short period of time.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/753339.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd5271ba4885dabd7633b23dfb3304b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IBKR":"盈透证券",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/753339.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2250956995","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，由于衰退风险和对二季度财报季的悲观预期，市场看空情绪加剧，交易员纷纷涌入做空美股的交易所交易基金(Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF)。最近一个交易日，ProShares三倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF(SQQQ.US)净流入2.475亿美元。这是该基金一个多月来最大的单日资金净流入，也是连续第四天资金流入，流入总额约为5.18亿美元。该基金押注做空科技股占主导地位的纳斯达克100指数。看跌的对象不仅仅是科技股。ProShares三倍做空标普500ETF(SPXU.US)的资产规模达16亿美元，自6月初以来资产规模大约翻了一番。投资者已连续12个交易日向该基金注入大量资金，在此期间累计流入8.75亿美元。SQQQ寻求的投资回报相当于纳斯达克100指数反向日表现的三倍。由于利率上升打击了科技股的增长前景，纳斯达克100指数今年以来下跌了约27%，而SQQQ则飙升了77%以上。追踪标普500指数三倍反向日表现的SPXU今年以来上涨了53%，而标普500指数下跌了19%。盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示，市场看空情绪加剧，“认为激进的交易者会将注意力转移到对冲或对下跌进行投机是明智的。”美国通胀达数十年高位、货币紧缩浪潮以及全球经济放缓的风险，这些因素都让投资者继续看空股市，尽管今年上半年全球股市蒸发了18万亿美元。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师预计，在经济衰退中，标普500指数可能跌至3000点，较当前水平下降22%。盈透证券的Sosnick表示，“逢低买入并没有起到作用。当它起作用的时候，通常是很短的一段时间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.88,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"NDX":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"ETF":1,"QNETCN":0.9,"03086":0.9,"IVV":0.6,"TTTN":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"IBKR":0.82,"OEF":0.6,"ESmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067937414,"gmtCreate":1652400430038,"gmtModify":1676535092335,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067937414","repostId":"1155367595","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155367595","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652337006,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155367595?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-12 14:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When can U.S. stocks be bought again? Wall Street keeps an eye on these signals","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155367595","media":"Wind万得","summary":"分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过这些信号判断：ETF的资金流出情况、 VIX波动率指数、看跌看涨期权的比率、股价回调的个股数量等。分析师表示，预期周三通胀数据将带来\"","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts said that the final stage of the U.S. stock crash is often accompanied by a selling frenzy, and the market bottom can be judged by these signals: the outflow of ETFs, the VIX volatility index, the ratio of put-call options, the number of stocks with stock price correction, etc. Analysts said stock and bond investors who expected Wednesday's inflation data to bring a \"watershed\" were disappointed, leaving the debate over whether the market is close to a bottom continuing.</p><p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was undoubtedly highly anticipated in April, with the data coming at a time when stocks and bonds sold off and investors faced a tough test in 2022 as they worried about the Federal Reserve's ability to keep inflation under control while avoiding a negative impact on the economy.</p><p>However, the released data showed that inflation slowed in April, with annualized growth falling to 8.3% from 8.5% in March, but still above expectations of 8.1%.</p><p>More problematic for investors is the core index that strips out volatile food and energy prices. It showed a monthly increase of 0.6% compared to Wall Street's forecast of 0.4%. Core inflation growth over the past year also slowed to 6.2% from a 40-year high of 6.5% in March.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed lower after a round of volatile trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 327 points, or 1%, for its fifth straight session of losses. The S&P 500 fell a sharp 1.65% on Monday to close at a 13-month low. The Nasdaq, which had fallen into a bear market earlier this year, plunged 3%.</p><p>Trading on the U.S. Treasury Bond was also volatile, but there was also no sign of an inflection point, suggesting that the selloff that pushed U.S. bond yields to a three-and-a-half-year high this month may not have come to a rest.</p><p>John Higgins, chief market analyst at Capital Economics, said in the report, \"At least so far, the latest preliminary evidence that the US consumer price index (CPI) shows peaking inflation is not a watershed for the US Treasury Bond or stock market.\"</p><p>The problem, analysts and investors say, is that while inflation may have peaked, it is not slowing fast enough to give an idea of what the Fed will do to control price pressures in the coming months. This month, the Fed raised its Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points, the biggest rate hike in more than 20 years — the usual Fed rate hike of 25 basis points.</p><p>Fed Chair Powell said rate hike 50 basis points will be considered in the next two policy meetings, but poured cold water on speculation about the possibility of 75 basis points in rate hike. Now, some analysts expect the Fed may change its tune and bring the 75-basis-point plan for rate hike back into consideration.</p><p>Investors will pay close attention to economic data and the Fed's policy response in the future. Analysts said that the final stage of the sharp crash in U.S. stocks is often accompanied by a selling frenzy, and the bottom of the market can be judged by three signals.</p><p>First, Michael Hartnett, head of investment strategy at Bank of America, said investors had poured $1.5 trillion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the start of 2021. So far, they've only withdrawn about $35 billion. He said he expected $300 billion in outflows if markets were to bottom out.</p><p>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX Index) tracks investor worries based on positions in the options market. Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, a market research firm, said that the volatility index recently hit 35, but it is not high enough to signal a bottom, and he would like to see the index close to 40. \"We have evidence that there have been some concessions in the market, but probably not enough to say it has bottomed out.\"</p><p>Larry McDonald, founder of Bear Traps Report, said U.S. stocks bottomed out and needed to see a sharp contraction in the number of stocks whose prices exceeded the 200-day moving average. When this ratio falls within the 20% range, it implies a bottoming signal, compared to the most recent figure of 28%. McDonald pointed out that the number of NYSE stocks declining is higher than the number of gainers (7 to 1), and the ratio of the two is one of the highest levels in the past five years, and a large number of Nasdaq stocks have recently hit new lows.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When can U.S. stocks be bought again? Wall Street keeps an eye on these signals</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen can U.S. stocks be bought again? Wall Street keeps an eye on these signals\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-12 14:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts said that the final stage of the U.S. stock crash is often accompanied by a selling frenzy, and the market bottom can be judged by these signals: the outflow of ETFs, the VIX volatility index, the ratio of put-call options, the number of stocks with stock price correction, etc. Analysts said stock and bond investors who expected Wednesday's inflation data to bring a \"watershed\" were disappointed, leaving the debate over whether the market is close to a bottom continuing.</p><p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was undoubtedly highly anticipated in April, with the data coming at a time when stocks and bonds sold off and investors faced a tough test in 2022 as they worried about the Federal Reserve's ability to keep inflation under control while avoiding a negative impact on the economy.</p><p>However, the released data showed that inflation slowed in April, with annualized growth falling to 8.3% from 8.5% in March, but still above expectations of 8.1%.</p><p>More problematic for investors is the core index that strips out volatile food and energy prices. It showed a monthly increase of 0.6% compared to Wall Street's forecast of 0.4%. Core inflation growth over the past year also slowed to 6.2% from a 40-year high of 6.5% in March.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed lower after a round of volatile trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 327 points, or 1%, for its fifth straight session of losses. The S&P 500 fell a sharp 1.65% on Monday to close at a 13-month low. The Nasdaq, which had fallen into a bear market earlier this year, plunged 3%.</p><p>Trading on the U.S. Treasury Bond was also volatile, but there was also no sign of an inflection point, suggesting that the selloff that pushed U.S. bond yields to a three-and-a-half-year high this month may not have come to a rest.</p><p>John Higgins, chief market analyst at Capital Economics, said in the report, \"At least so far, the latest preliminary evidence that the US consumer price index (CPI) shows peaking inflation is not a watershed for the US Treasury Bond or stock market.\"</p><p>The problem, analysts and investors say, is that while inflation may have peaked, it is not slowing fast enough to give an idea of what the Fed will do to control price pressures in the coming months. This month, the Fed raised its Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points, the biggest rate hike in more than 20 years — the usual Fed rate hike of 25 basis points.</p><p>Fed Chair Powell said rate hike 50 basis points will be considered in the next two policy meetings, but poured cold water on speculation about the possibility of 75 basis points in rate hike. Now, some analysts expect the Fed may change its tune and bring the 75-basis-point plan for rate hike back into consideration.</p><p>Investors will pay close attention to economic data and the Fed's policy response in the future. Analysts said that the final stage of the sharp crash in U.S. stocks is often accompanied by a selling frenzy, and the bottom of the market can be judged by three signals.</p><p>First, Michael Hartnett, head of investment strategy at Bank of America, said investors had poured $1.5 trillion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the start of 2021. So far, they've only withdrawn about $35 billion. He said he expected $300 billion in outflows if markets were to bottom out.</p><p>The Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX Index) tracks investor worries based on positions in the options market. Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, a market research firm, said that the volatility index recently hit 35, but it is not high enough to signal a bottom, and he would like to see the index close to 40. \"We have evidence that there have been some concessions in the market, but probably not enough to say it has bottomed out.\"</p><p>Larry McDonald, founder of Bear Traps Report, said U.S. stocks bottomed out and needed to see a sharp contraction in the number of stocks whose prices exceeded the 200-day moving average. When this ratio falls within the 20% range, it implies a bottoming signal, compared to the most recent figure of 28%. McDonald pointed out that the number of NYSE stocks declining is higher than the number of gainers (7 to 1), and the ratio of the two is one of the highest levels in the past five years, and a large number of Nasdaq stocks have recently hit new lows.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155367595","content_text":"分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过这些信号判断：ETF的资金流出情况、 VIX波动率指数、看跌看涨期权的比率、股价回调的个股数量等。分析师表示，预期周三通胀数据将带来\"分水岭\"的股市和债市投资者感到失望，令市场是否接近触底的争论仍在继续。4月份消费者价格指数(CPI)无疑备受期待，数据出炉之际，股市和债市出现抛售，投资者在2022年面临严峻考验，因为他们担心美联储是否有能力在控制通胀的同时避免对经济造成负面影响。然而，公布的数据显示，4月通货膨胀有所放缓，年化增速从3月份的8.5%降至8.3%，但仍高于8.1%的预期。对投资者来说，更有问题的是剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心指数。它显示了0.6%的月度增长，而华尔街的预测为0.4%。过去一年的核心通胀率增幅也从3月份的40年高点6.5%放缓至6.2%。经过一轮震荡交易后，美股收盘走低。道琼斯工业指数下跌约327点，跌幅1%，为连续第五个交易日下跌。标普500指数周一大幅下跌1.65%，收于13个月低点。今年早些时候曾跌入熊市的纳斯达克指数暴跌3%。美国国债的交易也出现了波动，但同样没有出现拐点的迹象，表明本月将美债收益率推高至三年半高点的抛售行为可能还未按下休止符。Capital Economics首席市场分析师John Higgins在报告中称，“至少到目前为止，最新公布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)显示通胀见顶的初步证据，对美国国债或股市来说还不是一个分水岭。”分析师和投资者说，问题在于，尽管通胀可能已经见顶，但其放缓速度不足以让人明白，美联储在未来几个月将采取什么措施来控制物价压力。本月，美联储将联邦基金利率上调50个基点，这是20多年来最大的加息幅度——通常美联储的加息幅度为25个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，未来两次政策会议将考虑加息50个基点，但对加息75个基点可能性的猜测泼了冷水。现在，一些分析人士预计，美联储可能会改变态度，让加息75个基点的计划重新纳入考虑范围。投资者未来密切关注经济数据及美联储政策反应。分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过三个信号判断。首先，美国银行(Bank of America)投资策略主管迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)表示，自2021年初以来，投资者向共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)投入了1.5万亿美元。到目前为止，他们只提取了大约350亿美元。他表示，如果市场要见底，他预期要出现3000亿美元的资金流出。芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)的波动率指数(VIX指数)根据期权市场的仓位跟踪投资者的担忧情绪。市场研究公司Crossmark Global Investments首席投资长多尔(Bob Doll)说，波动率指数最近触及35，但还没有高到足以预示底部，他希望看到该指数接近40的位置。“我们有证据表明，市场出现了一些让步，但可能还不足以说它已经触底。”Bear Traps Report创始人拉里·麦克唐纳表示，美股见底，需要看到价格超过200日移动均线的股票数量急剧收缩。当这一比率落在20%的范围内，这意味着见底信号，而最近的数据是28%。麦克唐纳指出，纽交所股票下跌家数高于上涨家数(7比1)，两者比例为过去5年最高水平之一，纳斯达克的大量股票最近创下新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038063731,"gmtCreate":1646699143448,"gmtModify":1676534151684,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038063731","repostId":"1198510306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198510306","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646696733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198510306?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-08 07:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! European Stocks Into Bear as Energy Prices Surge","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198510306","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%，纳指跌超3%跌入熊市；②商品期货再度大涨，伦镍一度暴涨近80%；③第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果，停火磋商将继续进行；④、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks closed sharply on Monday, with S&P falling nearly 3%, and Nasdaq falling more than 3% into a bear market; ② Commodity futures rose again, and Lun Nickel once soared by nearly 80%; ③ There is no substantive result in the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and the ceasefire consultations will continue; ④ The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year. Overseas markets</p><p>1. Closing: Conflict situation and inflation worries pressured U.S. stocks to close down the Dow dropped 800 points</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P falling nearly 3%, the biggest decline in more than a year, the Dow falling nearly 800 points, and the Nasdaq falling more than 3%, falling into a bear market, all hitting a one-year low. The Dow fell 2.37%, the Nasdaq fell 3.62% and the S&P 500 fell 2.95%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese stocks closed lower on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Down nearly 17%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Dropped more than 8%</p><p>Most popular Chinese stocks closed lower on Monday, with Mavericks Electric falling nearly 17%, and the financial report showed that Q4 net profit fell 18% year-on-year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluency theory</a>It fell by over 17%, and Bilibili fell by over 8%; New energy vehicle stocks are lower,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars fell more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">Solar Impulse</a>It rose by more than 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">Happy car</a>It rose by more than 21%, and education together rose by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>Youdao rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">Micro-holography</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>It rose by more than 3%.</p><p>3. U.S. or boycott Russian crude oil U.S. WTI crude oil closed 3.2% higher</p><p>Crude oil futures prices have been supported as countries such as the United States and Britain consider banning the import of Russian oil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for April delivery rose $3.72, or 3.2%, to close at $119.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On a near-month contract basis, it was the highest closing price since September 2008, according to FactSet data. Last week, WTI crude oil rose 26.30% cumulatively.</p><p>4. Brent was once close to $140 The possibility of a Russian oil embargo raises crisis fears</p><p>Oil prices posted their biggest daily swing ever, surging to nearly $140 earlier before falling back as the United States said it was considering a ban on Russian crude imports, exacerbating the possibility of tight supplies.</p><p>Brent oil retreated to around $121. Such oil price levels are heightening fears of a major inflationary shock to the global economy. The Biden administration is considering whether to ban Russian oil imports, at least initially, without European allies participating, people familiar with the matter said. Germany said it had no plans to suspend imports of Russian energy, adding to the volatility in the market.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed 1.5% higher on Monday and once broke through the $2,000 mark in intraday session</p><p>Gold futures closed higher on Monday and hit their highest close since August 2020. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again, causing risk aversion to rise, pushing the price of gold futures to break through the $2,000 per ounce mark on Monday.</p><p>Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $29.30, or 1.5%, to close at $1995.90 an ounce, after rising to $2007.50 an ounce during the session.</p><p>6. European stocks fall into bear market amid surging energy prices</p><p>European stocks fell to their lowest level in a year, with the DAX and the euro zone's Stoxx 50 index closing bear markets as soaring oil prices raised fears that high inflation would hurt economic growth.</p><p>The DAX closed down 2% to its lowest level since November 2020, cumulatively down 21% from a record high in January. The euro zone's Stoxx 50 index closed down 1.2%, also closing in a bear market.</p><p>7. European natural gas prices soared 79%. Market chaos pushed prices to new records</p><p>Europe's benchmark natural gas futures surged 79% to the equivalent of more than $600 a barrel of crude oil, amid the most chaotic trading conditions on record. A surge could trigger massive margin calls, prompting businesses to buy exchange contracts to avoid paying cash, which in turn causes futures prices to soar further.</p><p>Related to the Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The ceasefire negotiations in the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations will continue without substantive results</p><p>After the third round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, a member of the Ukrainian delegation said that consultations with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities would continue, and that there is still no substantive result on related issues so far. Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, also said that the third round of Russia-Ukraine talks failed to achieve results that could substantially improve the situation.</p><p>Mezinsky, head of the Russian delegation, said that Russia hopes that the humanitarian corridor will start operating from tomorrow, and Ukraine has given guarantees to this. Russia's desired goal for talks with Ukraine in Brest Oblast fell short.</p><p>2. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been shown on food shelves in many countries. Worries about the global food crisis are heating up</p><p>The impact of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine on global crop markets has been seen on store shelves.</p><p>A video of people scrambling for lower-priced sunflower seed oil in a store caused buzz amid a rush to buy over the weekend in Turkey amid fears of soaring sunflower oil prices; Some supermarket chain websites are out of stock</p><p>In Egypt, the world's largest importer of wheat, the price of some unsubsidized bread has risen sharply over the past week due to higher costs; In the Greater Cairo area, a pack of five slices of noodles costs about 7.50 Egyptian pounds ($0.48), compared to 5 Egyptian pounds a week ago.</p><p>3. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia subverts the global shipping industry, and shipping rates may rise by two to three times</p><p>The Ukraine-Russia war threatens to upend the global shipping industry, which is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Maersk (AMKBY.US), the largest marine container group, and Mediterranean Shipping have suspended business bookings to and from Russia as sanctions begin to have an impact on trade.</p><p>Glenn Koepke of FourKites, a supply chain consultancy, said shipping rates could even rise two to three times from the current price of $10,000 per 40-foot container.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by nearly 80% this year</p><p>The European Commission is plotting a path to ending its reliance on Russian gas, which could lead to a nearly 80% reduction in import demand this year, according to two officials familiar with the matter. To weaken the Kremlin's leverage, the European Commission revised its energy strategy after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military campaign against Ukraine. The plan, which will be submitted Tuesday, includes finding new sources of natural gas and improving energy efficiency, with the goal of weaning itself from Russia well before 2030, an official said.</p><p>2. Members of the U.S. House and Senate reach agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia</p><p>Four top leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives issued a statement that they have reached an agreement on the outline of the bill sanctioning Russia, saying they will work together to draft bills suspending normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and authorizing the Biden administration to raise tariffs for both countries.</p><p>3. Russian gold was shut out of the London market. The certification qualifications of all gold smelters were suspended</p><p>The London Gold and Silver Market Association on Monday said it suspended all six Russian gold and silver smelters as merit deliverers following sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom. Products manufactured by these businesses prior to the eligibility suspension will still be accepted.</p><p>Britain will \"gradually\" wean itself from Russian oil and gas, Prime Minister says</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said Britain will \"gradually\" wean itself from Russian oil and gas in the face of tensions between Russia and Ukraine. He also called on Western countries to work together to secure energy alternatives.</p><p>After meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte on the same day, Johnson said that Britain will formulate a new energy supply strategy in the coming days, noting that Britain is considering using more of its own fossil fuels. But he also stressed that Britain has not abandoned its commitment to reduce carbon emissions.</p><p>5. The problem of eating is imminent. The EU may consider relaxing the import ban of genetically modified grains and herbicide-related crops</p><p>As the world's major crude oil and grain producers are in turmoil, the European Union, which insists on high standards on rations imports, is also starting to worry about eating.</p><p>The European Union may consider temporarily lifting its ban on imports of genetically modified grains from the United States and South America to help farmers navigate the chaotic times ahead, Spanish Agriculture Minister Luis Planas was quoted as saying by media on Monday. Spain and France have also proposed exemptions for those who have used herbicides<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural Products</a>Imports, mainly to increase stocks and to find alternative supply channels for important grains, mainly corn, which are also a major source of animal feed.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1133636608\" target=\"_blank\">Uber Raises Q1 Outlook: Consumers Eager to Get Back Around</a></p><p>Uber reportedly raised its first-quarter 2022 results forecast as pandemic-impacted travel demand rebounded faster than expected. At one point, Uber shares were up about 2% in premarket trading on March 7. Meanwhile, shares of rival Lyft are up more than 2%.</p><p>Uber said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to be between $130 million and $150 million in the first quarter of this year, higher than the previous estimate of between $100 million and $130 million.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1185303476\" target=\"_blank\">Intel's self-driving business unit Mobileye secretly submits IPO application</a></p><p>According to reports, Intel Corporation announced on March 7 that Mobileye, its autonomous vehicle business unit, has secretly submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an initial public offering (IPO) of new Mobileye shares. At present, the number and price of new shares to be offered have not been determined. The IPO date will take place after the SEC completes its evaluation process, and the exact timing will also depend on the market and other conditions.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217544945\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla Most Bulls: Berlin 'Gigafactory' Approved The Stock's Biggest Suspense Clear</a></p><p>Dan Ives, a well-known Tesla bull and analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said in a note to investors on March 6th that it is crucial for Tesla to get the Berlin \"Gigafactory\" approved for production.</p><p>\"The Tesla stock 'biggest suspense' has been removed after German authorities said Tesla could start production at its new factory in Berlin,\" Ives wrote.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217448301\" target=\"_blank\">Wedbush: Spring conference coming soon gives Apple an \"outperform\" rating</a></p><p>Apple will hold its 2022 Spring Conference at 10 a.m. local time on March 8 (2 a.m. Beijing time on March 9). It is widely expected to launch a new iPhone SE with 5G capabilities, as well as a new iPad Air and Mac using its M-series chips. Wedbush Securities believes that all of the above products will become \"popular products\" for Apple. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has an \"outperform\" rating on Apple with a $200 price target.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217415574\" target=\"_blank\">Coal giant Peabody plunged more than 24% at one point and was forced to add a large margin call as coal prices soared</a></p><p>On Monday, March 7th, Peabody Energy, the world's largest private coal company, once plunged by more than 24% in the US stock market, falling sharply from the nearly three-year high since mid-May 2019 set last Friday, nearly erasing all the gains in the month.</p><p>That's largely due to the company's announcement that, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A financing arrangement was entered into, with the latter providing a $150 million unsecured multi-drawable credit facility to support \"potential liquidity needs in the near term\" for Peabody, whose coal mines are mainly located in the United States and Australia.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217541424\" target=\"_blank\">Refuse to follow the trend! Uniqlo's founder says it will continue to operate in Russia</a></p><p>After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, large European and American enterprises also withdrew from the country. While waves of companies have opted out of the Russian market, others have refused to follow suit and insisted on continuing to operate their operations in Russia.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217344063\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett talks about increasing holdings of Occidental Petroleum: $4.5 billion invested in five days, buy as much as you can</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Warren Buffett, chairman of Hathaway, disclosed in an interview Monday that he recently made a big increase in his holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental Petroleum</a>The story of the company's shares said that he spent $4.5 billion in five trading days last week to buy 91.2 million shares, worth more than $5 billion at the current share price.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! European Stocks Into Bear as Energy Prices Surge</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! European Stocks Into Bear as Energy Prices Surge\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-08 07:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks closed sharply on Monday, with S&P falling nearly 3%, and Nasdaq falling more than 3% into a bear market; ② Commodity futures rose again, and Lun Nickel once soared by nearly 80%; ③ There is no substantive result in the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and the ceasefire consultations will continue; ④ The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year. Overseas markets</p><p>1. Closing: Conflict situation and inflation worries pressured U.S. stocks to close down the Dow dropped 800 points</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P falling nearly 3%, the biggest decline in more than a year, the Dow falling nearly 800 points, and the Nasdaq falling more than 3%, falling into a bear market, all hitting a one-year low. The Dow fell 2.37%, the Nasdaq fell 3.62% and the S&P 500 fell 2.95%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese stocks closed lower on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Mavericks Electric</a>Down nearly 17%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Dropped more than 8%</p><p>Most popular Chinese stocks closed lower on Monday, with Mavericks Electric falling nearly 17%, and the financial report showed that Q4 net profit fell 18% year-on-year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluency theory</a>It fell by over 17%, and Bilibili fell by over 8%; New energy vehicle stocks are lower,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It fell nearly 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>fell by more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Cars fell more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">Solar Impulse</a>It rose by more than 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">Happy car</a>It rose by more than 21%, and education together rose by more than 10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>Youdao rose by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">Micro-holography</a>rose by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL</a>rose by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>It rose by more than 3%.</p><p>3. U.S. or boycott Russian crude oil U.S. WTI crude oil closed 3.2% higher</p><p>Crude oil futures prices have been supported as countries such as the United States and Britain consider banning the import of Russian oil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for April delivery rose $3.72, or 3.2%, to close at $119.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On a near-month contract basis, it was the highest closing price since September 2008, according to FactSet data. Last week, WTI crude oil rose 26.30% cumulatively.</p><p>4. Brent was once close to $140 The possibility of a Russian oil embargo raises crisis fears</p><p>Oil prices posted their biggest daily swing ever, surging to nearly $140 earlier before falling back as the United States said it was considering a ban on Russian crude imports, exacerbating the possibility of tight supplies.</p><p>Brent oil retreated to around $121. Such oil price levels are heightening fears of a major inflationary shock to the global economy. The Biden administration is considering whether to ban Russian oil imports, at least initially, without European allies participating, people familiar with the matter said. Germany said it had no plans to suspend imports of Russian energy, adding to the volatility in the market.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed 1.5% higher on Monday and once broke through the $2,000 mark in intraday session</p><p>Gold futures closed higher on Monday and hit their highest close since August 2020. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated again, causing risk aversion to rise, pushing the price of gold futures to break through the $2,000 per ounce mark on Monday.</p><p>Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $29.30, or 1.5%, to close at $1995.90 an ounce, after rising to $2007.50 an ounce during the session.</p><p>6. European stocks fall into bear market amid surging energy prices</p><p>European stocks fell to their lowest level in a year, with the DAX and the euro zone's Stoxx 50 index closing bear markets as soaring oil prices raised fears that high inflation would hurt economic growth.</p><p>The DAX closed down 2% to its lowest level since November 2020, cumulatively down 21% from a record high in January. The euro zone's Stoxx 50 index closed down 1.2%, also closing in a bear market.</p><p>7. European natural gas prices soared 79%. Market chaos pushed prices to new records</p><p>Europe's benchmark natural gas futures surged 79% to the equivalent of more than $600 a barrel of crude oil, amid the most chaotic trading conditions on record. A surge could trigger massive margin calls, prompting businesses to buy exchange contracts to avoid paying cash, which in turn causes futures prices to soar further.</p><p>Related to the Russia-Ukraine situation</p><p>1. The ceasefire negotiations in the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations will continue without substantive results</p><p>After the third round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, a member of the Ukrainian delegation said that consultations with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities would continue, and that there is still no substantive result on related issues so far. Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential office, also said that the third round of Russia-Ukraine talks failed to achieve results that could substantially improve the situation.</p><p>Mezinsky, head of the Russian delegation, said that Russia hopes that the humanitarian corridor will start operating from tomorrow, and Ukraine has given guarantees to this. Russia's desired goal for talks with Ukraine in Brest Oblast fell short.</p><p>2. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has been shown on food shelves in many countries. Worries about the global food crisis are heating up</p><p>The impact of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine on global crop markets has been seen on store shelves.</p><p>A video of people scrambling for lower-priced sunflower seed oil in a store caused buzz amid a rush to buy over the weekend in Turkey amid fears of soaring sunflower oil prices; Some supermarket chain websites are out of stock</p><p>In Egypt, the world's largest importer of wheat, the price of some unsubsidized bread has risen sharply over the past week due to higher costs; In the Greater Cairo area, a pack of five slices of noodles costs about 7.50 Egyptian pounds ($0.48), compared to 5 Egyptian pounds a week ago.</p><p>3. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia subverts the global shipping industry, and shipping rates may rise by two to three times</p><p>The Ukraine-Russia war threatens to upend the global shipping industry, which is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Maersk (AMKBY.US), the largest marine container group, and Mediterranean Shipping have suspended business bookings to and from Russia as sanctions begin to have an impact on trade.</p><p>Glenn Koepke of FourKites, a supply chain consultancy, said shipping rates could even rise two to three times from the current price of $10,000 per 40-foot container.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by nearly 80% this year</p><p>The European Commission is plotting a path to ending its reliance on Russian gas, which could lead to a nearly 80% reduction in import demand this year, according to two officials familiar with the matter. To weaken the Kremlin's leverage, the European Commission revised its energy strategy after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military campaign against Ukraine. The plan, which will be submitted Tuesday, includes finding new sources of natural gas and improving energy efficiency, with the goal of weaning itself from Russia well before 2030, an official said.</p><p>2. Members of the U.S. House and Senate reach agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia</p><p>Four top leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives issued a statement that they have reached an agreement on the outline of the bill sanctioning Russia, saying they will work together to draft bills suspending normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and authorizing the Biden administration to raise tariffs for both countries.</p><p>3. Russian gold was shut out of the London market. The certification qualifications of all gold smelters were suspended</p><p>The London Gold and Silver Market Association on Monday said it suspended all six Russian gold and silver smelters as merit deliverers following sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom. Products manufactured by these businesses prior to the eligibility suspension will still be accepted.</p><p>Britain will \"gradually\" wean itself from Russian oil and gas, Prime Minister says</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said Britain will \"gradually\" wean itself from Russian oil and gas in the face of tensions between Russia and Ukraine. He also called on Western countries to work together to secure energy alternatives.</p><p>After meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte on the same day, Johnson said that Britain will formulate a new energy supply strategy in the coming days, noting that Britain is considering using more of its own fossil fuels. But he also stressed that Britain has not abandoned its commitment to reduce carbon emissions.</p><p>5. The problem of eating is imminent. The EU may consider relaxing the import ban of genetically modified grains and herbicide-related crops</p><p>As the world's major crude oil and grain producers are in turmoil, the European Union, which insists on high standards on rations imports, is also starting to worry about eating.</p><p>The European Union may consider temporarily lifting its ban on imports of genetically modified grains from the United States and South America to help farmers navigate the chaotic times ahead, Spanish Agriculture Minister Luis Planas was quoted as saying by media on Monday. Spain and France have also proposed exemptions for those who have used herbicides<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">Agricultural Products</a>Imports, mainly to increase stocks and to find alternative supply channels for important grains, mainly corn, which are also a major source of animal feed.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1133636608\" target=\"_blank\">Uber Raises Q1 Outlook: Consumers Eager to Get Back Around</a></p><p>Uber reportedly raised its first-quarter 2022 results forecast as pandemic-impacted travel demand rebounded faster than expected. At one point, Uber shares were up about 2% in premarket trading on March 7. Meanwhile, shares of rival Lyft are up more than 2%.</p><p>Uber said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to be between $130 million and $150 million in the first quarter of this year, higher than the previous estimate of between $100 million and $130 million.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1185303476\" target=\"_blank\">Intel's self-driving business unit Mobileye secretly submits IPO application</a></p><p>According to reports, Intel Corporation announced on March 7 that Mobileye, its autonomous vehicle business unit, has secretly submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for an initial public offering (IPO) of new Mobileye shares. At present, the number and price of new shares to be offered have not been determined. The IPO date will take place after the SEC completes its evaluation process, and the exact timing will also depend on the market and other conditions.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217544945\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla Most Bulls: Berlin 'Gigafactory' Approved The Stock's Biggest Suspense Clear</a></p><p>Dan Ives, a well-known Tesla bull and analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said in a note to investors on March 6th that it is crucial for Tesla to get the Berlin \"Gigafactory\" approved for production.</p><p>\"The Tesla stock 'biggest suspense' has been removed after German authorities said Tesla could start production at its new factory in Berlin,\" Ives wrote.</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217448301\" target=\"_blank\">Wedbush: Spring conference coming soon gives Apple an \"outperform\" rating</a></p><p>Apple will hold its 2022 Spring Conference at 10 a.m. local time on March 8 (2 a.m. Beijing time on March 9). It is widely expected to launch a new iPhone SE with 5G capabilities, as well as a new iPad Air and Mac using its M-series chips. Wedbush Securities believes that all of the above products will become \"popular products\" for Apple. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has an \"outperform\" rating on Apple with a $200 price target.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217415574\" target=\"_blank\">Coal giant Peabody plunged more than 24% at one point and was forced to add a large margin call as coal prices soared</a></p><p>On Monday, March 7th, Peabody Energy, the world's largest private coal company, once plunged by more than 24% in the US stock market, falling sharply from the nearly three-year high since mid-May 2019 set last Friday, nearly erasing all the gains in the month.</p><p>That's largely due to the company's announcement that, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A financing arrangement was entered into, with the latter providing a $150 million unsecured multi-drawable credit facility to support \"potential liquidity needs in the near term\" for Peabody, whose coal mines are mainly located in the United States and Australia.</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217541424\" target=\"_blank\">Refuse to follow the trend! Uniqlo's founder says it will continue to operate in Russia</a></p><p>After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, large European and American enterprises also withdrew from the country. While waves of companies have opted out of the Russian market, others have refused to follow suit and insisted on continuing to operate their operations in Russia.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217344063\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett talks about increasing holdings of Occidental Petroleum: $4.5 billion invested in five days, buy as much as you can</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Warren Buffett, chairman of Hathaway, disclosed in an interview Monday that he recently made a big increase in his holdings<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental Petroleum</a>The story of the company's shares said that he spent $4.5 billion in five trading days last week to buy 91.2 million shares, worth more than $5 billion at the current share price.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198510306","content_text":"摘要：①美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%，纳指跌超3%跌入熊市；②商品期货再度大涨，伦镍一度暴涨近80%；③第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果，停火磋商将继续进行；④、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近80%。海外市场1、收盘：冲突局势与通胀忧虑施压 美股收跌道指下挫800点美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%创逾一年最大跌幅，道指跌近800点，纳指跌超3%、跌入熊市，均创一年新低。道指跌2.37%，纳指跌3.62%，标普500指数跌2.95%。2、热门中概股周一收盘大多走低 小牛电动跌近17% 哔哩哔哩跌超8%热门中概股周一收盘大多走低，小牛电动跌近17%，财报显示Q4净利润同比下降18%；流利说跌超17%，哔哩哔哩跌超8%；新能源汽车股走低，小鹏汽车跌近8%，理想汽车跌超5%，蔚来汽车跌超2%。阳光动力涨超28%，开心汽车涨超21%，一起教育涨超10%，网易有道涨超8%，微美全息涨超6%，好未来涨超4%，高途涨超3%。3、美或抵制俄国原油 美国WTI原油收高3.2%由于美英等国考虑禁止进口俄罗斯石油，原油期货价格得到支撑。纽约商品交易所4月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨3.72美元，涨幅为3.2%，收于每桶119.40美元。FactSet数据显示，按照近月合约计算，这是自2008年9月以来的最高收盘价。上周WTI原油累计上涨26.30%。4、布伦特一度接近140美元 俄罗斯石油禁运的可能性引发危机担忧石油价格创有史以来最大单日波幅，早前一度飙升至近140美元的水平，之后回落，因美国表示正在考虑禁止进口俄罗斯原油，加剧了供应紧张的可能性。布伦特油价回落至121美元左右。这样的油价水平正在加剧全球经济遭遇重大通胀冲击的担忧。知情人士称，拜登政府正在考虑至少在初期是否在欧洲盟友不参与的情况下禁止进口俄罗斯石油。德国表示，没有暂停进口俄罗斯能源的计划，加剧了市场的波动。5、黄金期货周一收高1.5% 盘中一度突破2000美元关口黄金期货周一收高并创2020年8月以来的最高收盘价。俄乌冲突再度升级，令避险情绪高涨，推动周一黄金期货价格一度突破每盎司2000美元关口。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格上涨29.30美元，涨幅1.5%，收于每盎司1995.90美元，盘中一度上涨至每盎司2007.50美元。6、欧洲股市在能源价格飙升之际跌入熊市欧洲股市跌至一年来的最低水平，DAX指数和欧元区斯托克50指数收盘进入熊市，因为油价飙升引发了高通胀将损伤经济增长的担忧。DAX指数收盘下跌2％，至2020年11月以来的最低水平，从1月份的创纪录高位累计下跌21％。欧元区斯托克50指数收盘下跌1.2％，也收于熊市。7、欧洲天然气价格飙升79% 市场一片混乱推动价格刷新纪录欧洲基准天然气期货飙升79%，达到相当于每桶原油超过600美元，市场出现了有史以来最为混乱的交易状况。飙升可能引发大规模的追加保证金，促使企业购买交易所合约以避免支付现金，进而导致期货价格进一步飙升。俄乌局势相关1、第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果 停火磋商将继续进行第三轮俄乌谈判结束后，乌克兰代表团的一名成员表示，与俄罗斯关于停火和停止敌对行动的磋商将继续进行，相关问题到目前仍没有实质性结果。乌克兰总统办公室顾问波多利亚克也表示，俄乌第三轮会谈没取得能实质改善局势的结果。俄罗斯代表团团长梅津斯基则表示，俄方希望人道主义走廊从明天开始运行，乌克兰方面对此给予了保证。俄罗斯对与乌克兰在布列斯特州会谈的预期目标未能实现。2、俄乌战争的影响已在多国食品货架上显现 全球粮食危机忧虑升温俄罗斯在乌克兰开展军事行动给全球农作物市场带来的冲击已在商店货架上显现。由于担心葵花籽油价格飙升，土耳其周末期间出现抢购，民众在一家商店争抢较低价葵花籽油的视频引起热议；部分连锁超市网站缺货在全球最大的小麦进口国埃及，由于成本走高，过去一周部分未受补贴的面包价格大幅上涨；在大开罗地区，一包五片面饼的售价约为7.5埃及镑（0.48美元），而一周前为5埃及镑。3、乌俄冲突颠覆全球航运业 海运费率或将上涨两至三倍乌俄战争有可能颠覆正从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏的全球航运业。随着制裁开始对贸易产生影响，最大的海运集装箱集团马士基（AMKBY.US）和Mediterranean Shipping已经暂停了往返俄罗斯的业务预订。供应链咨询公司FourKites的格伦•克普克表示，海运费率甚至可能从目前每40英尺集装箱1万美元的价格上涨两到三倍。国际宏观1、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近80%据两位知情官员透露，欧盟委员会正在规划结束对俄罗斯天然气依赖的路径，这可能导致今年进口需求减少近80%。为削弱克里姆林宫方面的筹码，欧盟委员会在俄罗斯总统普京发动对乌克兰的军事行动后修改能源战略。一位官员表示，这份计划将于周二提交，内容包括寻找新的天然气来源和提高能源效率，目标是远早于2030年摆脱对俄罗斯的依赖。2、美国参众两院议员就制裁俄罗斯的法案大纲达成协议美国参议院和众议院四位高层领导人发表声明，已就制裁俄罗斯的法案大纲达成协议，表示将共同起草法案，暂停与俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的正常贸易关系，并授权拜登政府提高面向两国的关税。3、俄罗斯黄金被伦敦市场拒之门外 所有黄金冶炼商的认证资格均被暂停伦敦金银市场协会周一表示，在美国、欧盟和英国对俄罗斯实施制裁后，该协会暂停了所有六家俄罗斯金银冶炼企业的优良交货商资格。这些企业在资格暂停之前生产的产品仍将被接受。4、英首相表示英国将“逐步”摆脱对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊表示，面对俄乌两国之间的紧张局势，英国将要“逐步”摆脱对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖。他同时呼吁西方各国要共同努力确保能源替代方案。约翰逊当天在与加拿大总理特鲁多和荷兰首相吕特会晤之后表示，英国将在未来几天制定新的能源供应战略，并指出英国正在考虑使用更多自己的化石燃料。但他同时强调，英国并没有放弃减少碳排放的承诺。5、吃饭问题迫在眉睫 欧盟或考虑放宽转基因谷物和涉除草剂作物进口禁令随着全球主要原油和粮食产地卷入动荡，在口粮进口问题上坚持高标准的欧盟也开始担忧起吃饭问题。据媒体周一援引西班牙农业大臣路易斯·普拉纳斯(Luis Planas)称，欧盟可能会考虑临时取消从美国和南美进口转基因谷物的禁令，帮助农民度过眼下这段混乱的时光。西班牙和法国也已经提议豁免使用过除草剂的农产品进口，主要是为了增加库存以及寻找以玉米为主的重要谷物替代供应渠道，这些产品也是动物饲料的主要来源。公司新闻1、Uber调高第一季度业绩预期：消费者渴望重新出行据报道，Uber上调了2022年第一季度业绩预期，原因是疫情影响的出行需求的反弹速度快于预期。3月7日盘前交易中，Uber股价一度上涨约 2%。与此同时，竞争对手Lyft的股价也上涨了2%以上。Uber在提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件中称，现预计，今年第一季度调整后的EBITDA（息税折旧及摊销前利润） 将在1.3亿美元至1.5亿美元之间，高于之前预期的1亿美元至1.3亿美元之间。2、英特尔自动驾驶业务部门Mobileye秘密提交IPO申请据报道，英特尔公司3月7日宣布，旗下自动驾驶汽车业务部门Mobileye已向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）秘密提交Form S-1注册声明草案，拟首次公开发行（IPO）Mobileye新股。目前，新股发售数量和价格尚未确定。IPO日期将在SEC完成评估程序后进行，具体时间还要取决于市场和其他条件。3、特斯拉大多头：柏林“超级工厂”获批 该股最大悬念被清除特斯拉知名大多头、投行Wedbush分析师Dan Ives于3月6日在给投资者的一份报告中表示，柏林“超级工厂”获批生产对特斯拉来说至关重要。Ives写道，“在德国当局表示特斯拉可以在柏林的新工厂开始生产后，特斯拉股票‘最大悬念’已经被消除。”4、Wedbush：春季发布会即将召开 予苹果“跑赢大盘”评级苹果将于当地时间3月8日上午10点（北京时间3月9日凌晨2点）举办2022年春季发布会。市场普遍预计它将推出具有5G功能的新款iPhone SE，以及使用其M系列芯片的新iPad Air和Mac。Wedbush Securities认为，以上所有产品将成为苹果的“受欢迎产品”。Wedbush分析师Dan Ives予苹果“跑赢大盘”评级，目标价为200美元。5、煤炭巨头皮博迪一度暴跌超24%，被迫在煤价飙升时追加大额保证金3月7日周一，全球最大的私营煤炭公司皮博迪能源在美股市场一度暴跌超24%，从上周五所创的2019年5月中旬以来近三年高位大幅回落，接近抹去月内全部涨幅。这主要是由于公司发布公告称，与高盛达成一项融资安排，后者提供1.5亿美元的无担保可多次提取信贷额度，以支持煤矿主要位于美国和澳大利亚的皮博迪公司“近期内潜在的流动性需求”。6、拒绝跟风！优衣库创始人称将继续在俄经营业务俄乌冲突升级以后，西方国家对俄罗斯采取制裁措施的同时，欧美大型企业也纷纷从该国撤离。尽管一波又一波的公司选择退出俄罗斯市场，但也有公司拒绝跟风，坚持继续运营在俄罗斯的业务。7、巴菲特谈增持西方石油：五天投了45亿美元，能买多少买多少伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长沃伦-巴菲特在周一的一次采访中披露了他最近大手笔增持西方石油公司股份的经过，称他在上周五个交易日内豪掷45亿美元，买入了9120万股，按当前股价计算价值超过了50亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001433669,"gmtCreate":1641297495776,"gmtModify":1676533594118,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/METX\">$美联教育科技(METX)$</a>wake up pls&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/METX\">$美联教育科技(METX)$</a>wake up pls&nbsp;","text":"$美联教育科技(METX)$wake up pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001433669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533861,"gmtCreate":1678019346453,"gmtModify":1678019350505,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533861","repostId":"1154440961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154440961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677989017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154440961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 12:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lei Jun's New Story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154440961","media":"全天候科技","summary":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of the ecological chain,</b></b><b>But rather</b><b><b>Tell the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>A few years ago, Xiaomi built an ecological chain map, laid out it in many smart device fields, and gradually let Mijia terminal intelligent products penetrate into various IoT markets.</p><p>After the smart phone market entered the second half, Lei Jun no longer focused on the story of the ecological chain, but on the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun told the story of \"supply chain\" to the \"two sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, a deputy to the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, including one on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested that we should encourage and support the science and technology innovation industry chain and promote the planning and layout of bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched the second round of financing, and the fund-raising scale has increased from more than 6 billion yuan last year to more than 9 billion yuan. The investment objectives of this fund focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream fields.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about the supply chain has made phased progress. According to the previous statistics of Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 enterprises in the field of smart cars.</p><p>All along, \"cost performance\" is the deepest label on Xiaomi. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for \"insufficient self-research technical ability\". The investment in upstream core supply chain enterprises or technology enterprises shows Xiaomi's determination to strengthen the right to speak in the supply chain.</p><p>The opening of supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>\"Voice\" for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>After its debut in August last year, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from the recent dynamics of Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs in the track of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>Among the suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that at present, China has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of bionic humanoid robots, but it still faces challenges such as improving the performance of core components, insufficient application demand traction, lack of large-scale mass production capacity, imperfect application ecology and supporting support system, etc.</p><p>To this end, he suggested: encourage and support the science and technology industry chain, and promote the planning and layout of bionic humanoid robot industry; Support whole machine enterprises to take the lead in establishing a national innovation consortium and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecology of bionic humanoid robots, and accelerate the cultivation of scenario applications.</p><p>In June last year, under the effect of Musk's \"humanoid robot will be launched\", the related concept of bionic humanoid robot became a hot concept in the domestic capital market, and this subdivision track also became the hottest track in the robot industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi released the prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"Tieda\") at Lei Jun's annual lecture before Tesla, and this enthusiasm reached its peak.</p><p>CyberOne launched by Xiaomi is not a PPT or a prop. It is a prototype that can be taken out and can interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per unit, and it can't yet achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that the technical integration of bionic robots was the highest and the most difficult, and Xiaomi was still in the first stage of its infancy.</p><p>Turning its attention to foreign countries, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime Optimus released by Tesla at AI Day last year also failed to reach the previously claimed level. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk, but I think it will in a couple of weeks.\"</p><p>Musk previously made a bold statement: The target price of Optimus Optimus may be less than $20,000, and more than one million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed the recent progress of Optimus Optimus at Tesla Investor Day: \"Not working properly, though things are improving.\"</p><p>Tesla is still increasing its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology found that Tesla China recently released job recruitment information in the direction of robotics, including automation control engineer (robot), electrical design engineer-robot development and its application direction.</p><p>The outlook given by institutions is tempting. Marketsandmarkets, a global market research firm, forecasts that the global humanoid robot market will rise from US$1.5 billion in 2022 to US$17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become another entrance after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>But there is no denying that the bionic humanoid robot track is a track that requires long-term investment.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, there are still many realities that have to be solved in front of this track, such as core components, the underlying operating system and chip of robots, system design software, etc.</p><p><b>Ten Billion Fund Focuses on IC Industry Chain</b></p><p>After raising more than 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2nd, Kingsoft Software announced that its subsidiaries Wuhan Jinshan, Xiaomi Beijing, Xiaomi Wuhan, etc. had entered into partnership agreements with other investors about the establishment of equity investment funds in integrated circuit-related fields, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Xiaomi and Jinshan of Lei Jun Department, the LP of the fund also includes Beijing Guiding Fund and Yizhuang Guotou with Beijing's state-owned assets background, Tianjin Haichuang of Tianjin state-owned assets Beijing, Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Xingzheng Investment, Zhaoyi Innovation, etc.</p><p>Compared with the first fund-raising in July last year, the fund has five new faces: Wuhan Jinshan, Beijing Guidance Fund, Nasing Venture Capital, Diao Micro and Xinyin Haohong. The fund scale also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in the initial financing to 9.03 billion yuan, close to the target scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the industrial and commercial information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Zhizao Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Zhizao\"), which was incorporated on September 18, 2021 and filed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the role of the fund, Kingsoft Software said that it is mainly engaged in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in unlisted companies.</p><p>The main target is integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors, covering new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, and upstream and downstream applications and supply chains related to mobile end consumer goods and intelligent devices.</p><p>It is not difficult to find that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current business mobile phones and cars. All along, most of Xiaomi's investment businesses have basically focused on its main business and future development direction, carrying out technological upgrading and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automobiles and semiconductors.</p><p>Since the announcement of car manufacturing, Xiaomi has laid out a number of enterprises related to the automobile industry chain through investment and shareholding. According to the previous statistics of Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 enterprises in the field of smart cars, including 17 enterprises in intelligent driving, 13 enterprises in intelligent electric and 6 enterprises in intelligent cockpit, of which 22 enterprises were newly invested in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investment actions were completed through Xiaomi Yangtze River Industrial Investment Fund. After the establishment of Xiaomi Zhizao, it focused more on the collaborative investment direction of Xiaomi's automobile business.</p><p>According to public information, more than ten projects invested by Xiaomi Zhizao at present involve the automobile industry chain, including semiconductors, power batteries, core equipment parts and other links in the automobile industry chain.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's layout of the upstream and downstream fields of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as the previous layout of Xiaomi ecological chain. This is conducive to further enhancing the vertical integration capability of the vehicle business and ensuring the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qthkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lei Jun's New Story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLei Jun's New Story\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全天候科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of the ecological chain,</b></b><b>But rather</b><b><b>Tell the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>A few years ago, Xiaomi built an ecological chain map, laid out it in many smart device fields, and gradually let Mijia terminal intelligent products penetrate into various IoT markets.</p><p>After the smart phone market entered the second half, Lei Jun no longer focused on the story of the ecological chain, but on the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun told the story of \"supply chain\" to the \"two sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, a deputy to the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, including one on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested that we should encourage and support the science and technology innovation industry chain and promote the planning and layout of bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched the second round of financing, and the fund-raising scale has increased from more than 6 billion yuan last year to more than 9 billion yuan. The investment objectives of this fund focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream fields.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about the supply chain has made phased progress. According to the previous statistics of Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 enterprises in the field of smart cars.</p><p>All along, \"cost performance\" is the deepest label on Xiaomi. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for \"insufficient self-research technical ability\". The investment in upstream core supply chain enterprises or technology enterprises shows Xiaomi's determination to strengthen the right to speak in the supply chain.</p><p>The opening of supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>\"Voice\" for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>After its debut in August last year, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from the recent dynamics of Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs in the track of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>Among the suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that at present, China has made key breakthroughs in the core technology of bionic humanoid robots, but it still faces challenges such as improving the performance of core components, insufficient application demand traction, lack of large-scale mass production capacity, imperfect application ecology and supporting support system, etc.</p><p>To this end, he suggested: encourage and support the science and technology industry chain, and promote the planning and layout of bionic humanoid robot industry; Support whole machine enterprises to take the lead in establishing a national innovation consortium and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecology of bionic humanoid robots, and accelerate the cultivation of scenario applications.</p><p>In June last year, under the effect of Musk's \"humanoid robot will be launched\", the related concept of bionic humanoid robot became a hot concept in the domestic capital market, and this subdivision track also became the hottest track in the robot industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi released the prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"Tieda\") at Lei Jun's annual lecture before Tesla, and this enthusiasm reached its peak.</p><p>CyberOne launched by Xiaomi is not a PPT or a prop. It is a prototype that can be taken out and can interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan per unit, and it can't yet achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that the technical integration of bionic robots was the highest and the most difficult, and Xiaomi was still in the first stage of its infancy.</p><p>Turning its attention to foreign countries, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime Optimus released by Tesla at AI Day last year also failed to reach the previously claimed level. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk, but I think it will in a couple of weeks.\"</p><p>Musk previously made a bold statement: The target price of Optimus Optimus may be less than $20,000, and more than one million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed the recent progress of Optimus Optimus at Tesla Investor Day: \"Not working properly, though things are improving.\"</p><p>Tesla is still increasing its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology found that Tesla China recently released job recruitment information in the direction of robotics, including automation control engineer (robot), electrical design engineer-robot development and its application direction.</p><p>The outlook given by institutions is tempting. Marketsandmarkets, a global market research firm, forecasts that the global humanoid robot market will rise from US$1.5 billion in 2022 to US$17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to become another entrance after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>But there is no denying that the bionic humanoid robot track is a track that requires long-term investment.</p><p>As far as China is concerned, there are still many realities that have to be solved in front of this track, such as core components, the underlying operating system and chip of robots, system design software, etc.</p><p><b>Ten Billion Fund Focuses on IC Industry Chain</b></p><p>After raising more than 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, \"Xiaomi Ten Billion Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2nd, Kingsoft Software announced that its subsidiaries Wuhan Jinshan, Xiaomi Beijing, Xiaomi Wuhan, etc. had entered into partnership agreements with other investors about the establishment of equity investment funds in integrated circuit-related fields, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Xiaomi and Jinshan of Lei Jun Department, the LP of the fund also includes Beijing Guiding Fund and Yizhuang Guotou with Beijing's state-owned assets background, Tianjin Haichuang of Tianjin state-owned assets Beijing, Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Xingzheng Investment, Zhaoyi Innovation, etc.</p><p>Compared with the first fund-raising in July last year, the fund has five new faces: Wuhan Jinshan, Beijing Guidance Fund, Nasing Venture Capital, Diao Micro and Xinyin Haohong. The fund scale also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in the initial financing to 9.03 billion yuan, close to the target scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to the industrial and commercial information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Zhizao Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Zhizao\"), which was incorporated on September 18, 2021 and filed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the role of the fund, Kingsoft Software said that it is mainly engaged in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in unlisted companies.</p><p>The main target is integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors, covering new generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, and upstream and downstream applications and supply chains related to mobile end consumer goods and intelligent devices.</p><p>It is not difficult to find that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current business mobile phones and cars. All along, most of Xiaomi's investment businesses have basically focused on its main business and future development direction, carrying out technological upgrading and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, automobiles and semiconductors.</p><p>Since the announcement of car manufacturing, Xiaomi has laid out a number of enterprises related to the automobile industry chain through investment and shareholding. According to the previous statistics of Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi invested in as many as 62 enterprises in the field of smart cars, including 17 enterprises in intelligent driving, 13 enterprises in intelligent electric and 6 enterprises in intelligent cockpit, of which 22 enterprises were newly invested in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investment actions were completed through Xiaomi Yangtze River Industrial Investment Fund. After the establishment of Xiaomi Zhizao, it focused more on the collaborative investment direction of Xiaomi's automobile business.</p><p>According to public information, more than ten projects invested by Xiaomi Zhizao at present involve the automobile industry chain, including semiconductors, power batteries, core equipment parts and other links in the automobile industry chain.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's layout of the upstream and downstream fields of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as the previous layout of Xiaomi ecological chain. This is conducive to further enhancing the vertical integration capability of the vehicle business and ensuring the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320\">全天候科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb44f0df3fb7312ee913474e800cc495","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154440961","content_text":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。近日，雷军将“供应链”的故事讲上了“两会”。2023年，作为全国人大代表的雷军准备了3份建议案，其中一份关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展。雷军建议，鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局。同样在这个月，“小米百亿基金”开展了第二轮融资，募资规模已从去年60多亿增至90多亿元。而这支基金的投资目标着重于集成电路以及相关上游及下游领域。小米关于供应链的故事已取得阶段性进展。国金证券此前统计数据显示，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家。一直以来，“性价比”是小米身上最深的标签。这也成为小米被外界诟病“自研技术能力不足”的原因。而对上游核心供应链企业或技术企业的投资，表明小米希望强供应链话语权的决心。供应链布局的开启，是雷军和小米试图抓住市场机遇的一次蓄力与尝试。雷军的新故事能否讲成？为人形机器人产业链“发声”去年8月亮相之后，有关小米仿生人形机器人CyberOne的消息一直不多。不过最近从小米传出的动态来看，雷军希望能在仿生人形机器人这个赛道上有更多的突破。在关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展的建议中，雷军认为，目前我国在仿生人形机器人核心技术方面已取得关键突破，但仍然面临核心部组件性能有待提升、应用需求牵引不足、不具备规模化量产能力、应用生态和配套支撑体系不健全等挑战。为此，他建议：鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局；支持整机企业牵头创建国家创新联合体，加强核心技术联合攻关；构建仿生人形机器人开放产业生态，加速场景应用培育。去年6月，在马斯克“将推出人形机器人”效应下，仿生人形机器人相关概念成为国内资本市场上的热门概念，这个细分赛道也成为机器人行业最热的赛道。两个月后，小米先于特斯拉在雷军年度演讲会上发布原型仿生机器人CyberOne（内部艺名“铁大”），这股热情也随之达到峰值。小米推出的CyberOne不是PPT，也不是道具，是可以拿出手的原型机，能与人进行互动。遗憾的是，CyberOne的成本每台高达六、七十万元，尚无法实现量产。彼时，雷军坦承，形仿生机器人的技术集成度最高、难度也最大，小米还处于刚刚起步的第一阶段。将视线转向国外，特斯拉在去年AI Day上发布的人形机器人擎天柱Optimus，同样没有达到此前宣称的水平。用马斯克的话来说，“它还没有完全准备好走路，但我认为它会在几周内走路。”马斯克此前放出豪言：擎天柱Optimus的目标价格可能低于2万美元，还要量产百万台之上。然而，马斯克在特斯拉投资者日上透露了擎天柱Optimus的最近进展：“无法正常工作，不过情况正在好转。”特斯拉仍在不断加大关于人形机器人的投入。全天候科技发现，特斯拉中国近期发布了机器人方向的岗位招聘信息，包括自动化控制工程师（机器人）、电气设计工程师-机器人开发及其应用方向。机构给出的前景很诱人。全球市场研究机构Marketsandmarkets预测，全球人形机器人市场规模将从2022年的15亿美元提升至2027年的173亿美元。民生证券认为，人形机器人有望成为继手机、汽车后的又一入口，商业价值巨大。但不可否认，仿生人形机器人赛道是一个需要长期投入的赛道。就国内而言，摆在这条赛道面前且不得不解决的现实还不少，如核心零部件、机器人底层操作系统与芯片、系统设计软件等。百亿基金聚焦集成电路产业链在去年首次募资超60亿元后，“小米百亿基金”在这个月又展开了第二轮融资。3月2日，金山软件公告称，公司附属公司武汉金山、小米北京、小米武汉等，与其他投资者订立合伙协议，内容有关成立集成电路相关领域股权投资基金，预期总规模100亿元。除雷军系的小米、金山外，该基金LP还包含北京国资背景的北京市引导基金、亦庄国投，天津国资北京的天津海创，以及海南华盈开泰、广州华多、兴证投资、兆易创新等。相较去年7月首次募资，该基金多5位新面孔：武汉金山、北京市引导基金、纳星创投、帝奥微、信银浩鸿。基金规模也从首次融资的63.3亿元增至90.3亿元，接近百亿目标规模。工商信息显示，该基金全名为：北京小米智造股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“小米智造”），2021年9月18日注册成立，2022年4月6日完成备案。对于该基金的作用，金山软件称：主要从事股权投资或准股权投资，或对非上市公司进行投资相关活动。主要对象便是集成电路，以及相关上游及下游领域，涵盖新一代信息科技、 智能制造、新材料、人工智能、显示器及显示装置、汽车电子，以及有关移动终端消费品、智能装置的上游及下游应用及供应链。从中不难发现，这些与小米当前业务手机、汽车密切相关。一直以来，小米的大部分投资业务基本围绕其主营业务和未来发展方向，进行技术提升和产业链布局，例如人工智能、物联网、汽车和半导体等。自宣布造车以来，小米就通过投资及入股等方式，布局多家汽车产业链相关企业。据国金证券此前统计，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家，其中智能驾驶布局17家企业，智能电动布局13家企业，智能座舱布局6家企业，当中有22家企业是2021年新增投资。此前，小米多数半导体投资动作是通过小米长江产业投资基金完成的。小米智造成立后，其更聚焦小米汽车业务协同投资方向。公开信息显示，小米智造目前对外投资的十余个项目，均涉及汽车产业链，包括汽车产业链半导体、动力电池、核心设备零件等多个环节。有行业人士分析认为，雷军布局集成电路产业上下游领域，与此前布局小米生态链如出一辙。这有利于其进一步提升整车业务的垂直整合能力，保障汽车关键零部件和软件系统供应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533357,"gmtCreate":1678019323780,"gmtModify":1678019326433,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533357","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automobile market in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automobile market gradually climbs, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low price and high safety. It also improves the battery capacity through technical upgrading, thus extending the original cruising range. In recent years, it has been very favored by car companies.</p><p>Last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China, according to research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence; In the United States, it was only 9%, or even zero in the previous year. But that trend is about to change — and there are signs that the battery technology, popular in China, is making inroads into electric vehicle markets in the U.S. and Japan, and grabbing market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue its expansion following the commissioning of a new $1.6 billion facility next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; In the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will improve to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that in terms of the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>US battery start-up Kore Power also expects growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US. The company's planned Arizona facility in late 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>etc. are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford announced that the two parties will build a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA to cooperate in producing lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to 3.5 billion US dollars. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the whole vehicle, with some equipment coming from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs, an executive of the company said in February.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter Japanese car market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3rd, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched the plan to build the largest battery factory in Japan, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households in one day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX (Minato-ku, Tokyo), a renewable energy start-up founded in 2021. As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than the current mainstream of stationary storage batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging devices in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Expansion</h2>The data shows that Chinese enterprises occupy an overwhelming advantage in the field of vehicle batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>According to data from South Korea's SNE survey, in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The first two are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the speed at which the EV market is expanding. Since 2010, China has granted subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location of battery factories, which has accelerated the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's CATL, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is taking the lead.</p><p>In July 2022, CATL's chief scientist, Kai Wu, said the company's battery can give a pure electric vehicle a range of more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch \"M3P\" batteries improved from lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2023. Range can exceed major pure EVs such as Nissan's 'Leaf'.</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, a form of lithium-ion batteries, are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the U.S. because it had worse endurance than batteries like the NMC, but could be charged more times before performance dropped significantly. For American drivers, range is seen as too important to sacrifice it for price, says Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have advised you to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As EV sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also skyrocketed. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are terrible. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to where they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As the patent expires, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>Additionally, the adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, driven by federal government subsidies, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery endurance. From the point of view of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCapturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automobile market in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automobile market gradually climbs, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low price and high safety. It also improves the battery capacity through technical upgrading, thus extending the original cruising range. In recent years, it has been very favored by car companies.</p><p>Last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China, according to research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence; In the United States, it was only 9%, or even zero in the previous year. But that trend is about to change — and there are signs that the battery technology, popular in China, is making inroads into electric vehicle markets in the U.S. and Japan, and grabbing market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue its expansion following the commissioning of a new $1.6 billion facility next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; In the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will improve to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that in terms of the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>US battery start-up Kore Power also expects growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US. The company's planned Arizona facility in late 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>etc. are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford announced that the two parties will build a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA to cooperate in producing lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to 3.5 billion US dollars. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the whole vehicle, with some equipment coming from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs, an executive of the company said in February.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter Japanese car market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3rd, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched the plan to build the largest battery factory in Japan, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households in one day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX (Minato-ku, Tokyo), a renewable energy start-up founded in 2021. As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than the current mainstream of stationary storage batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging devices in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Expansion</h2>The data shows that Chinese enterprises occupy an overwhelming advantage in the field of vehicle batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>According to data from South Korea's SNE survey, in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The first two are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the speed at which the EV market is expanding. Since 2010, China has granted subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location of battery factories, which has accelerated the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's CATL, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is taking the lead.</p><p>In July 2022, CATL's chief scientist, Kai Wu, said the company's battery can give a pure electric vehicle a range of more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch \"M3P\" batteries improved from lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2023. Range can exceed major pure EVs such as Nissan's 'Leaf'.</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, a form of lithium-ion batteries, are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the U.S. because it had worse endurance than batteries like the NMC, but could be charged more times before performance dropped significantly. For American drivers, range is seen as too important to sacrifice it for price, says Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have advised you to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As EV sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also skyrocketed. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are terrible. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to where they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As the patent expires, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>Additionally, the adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, driven by federal government subsidies, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery endurance. From the point of view of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533953,"gmtCreate":1678019317273,"gmtModify":1678019321152,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533953","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automobile market in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automobile market gradually climbs, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low price and high safety. It also improves the battery capacity through technical upgrading, thus extending the original cruising range. In recent years, it has been very favored by car companies.</p><p>Last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China, according to research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence; In the United States, it was only 9%, or even zero in the previous year. But that trend is about to change — and there are signs that the battery technology, popular in China, is making inroads into electric vehicle markets in the U.S. and Japan, and grabbing market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue its expansion following the commissioning of a new $1.6 billion facility next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; In the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will improve to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that in terms of the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>US battery start-up Kore Power also expects growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US. The company's planned Arizona facility in late 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>etc. are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford announced that the two parties will build a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA to cooperate in producing lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to 3.5 billion US dollars. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the whole vehicle, with some equipment coming from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs, an executive of the company said in February.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter Japanese car market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3rd, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched the plan to build the largest battery factory in Japan, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households in one day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX (Minato-ku, Tokyo), a renewable energy start-up founded in 2021. As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than the current mainstream of stationary storage batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging devices in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Expansion</h2>The data shows that Chinese enterprises occupy an overwhelming advantage in the field of vehicle batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>According to data from South Korea's SNE survey, in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The first two are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the speed at which the EV market is expanding. Since 2010, China has granted subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location of battery factories, which has accelerated the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's CATL, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is taking the lead.</p><p>In July 2022, CATL's chief scientist, Kai Wu, said the company's battery can give a pure electric vehicle a range of more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch \"M3P\" batteries improved from lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2023. Range can exceed major pure EVs such as Nissan's 'Leaf'.</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, a form of lithium-ion batteries, are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the U.S. because it had worse endurance than batteries like the NMC, but could be charged more times before performance dropped significantly. For American drivers, range is seen as too important to sacrifice it for price, says Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have advised you to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As EV sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also skyrocketed. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are terrible. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to where they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As the patent expires, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>Additionally, the adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, driven by federal government subsidies, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery endurance. From the point of view of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Capturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCapturing the United States and Japan, China Battery Holds Lithium Iron Phosphate to the Top Stream of Trams\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are popular in China, are gradually expanding their share in the automobile market in the United States and Japan.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automobile market gradually climbs, lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually entered people's field of vision and become the focus. Lithium iron phosphate battery has the advantages of low price and high safety. It also improves the battery capacity through technical upgrading, thus extending the original cruising range. In recent years, it has been very favored by car companies.</p><p>Last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the battery capacity sold for electric vehicles in China, according to research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence; In the United States, it was only 9%, or even zero in the previous year. But that trend is about to change — and there are signs that the battery technology, popular in China, is making inroads into electric vehicle markets in the U.S. and Japan, and grabbing market share of traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States sets off a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries</h2>Recently, start-up Our Next Energy announced that it will start producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue its expansion following the commissioning of a new $1.6 billion facility next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adamas Intelligence, said,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly set off a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is starting to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects,<b>All major automakers will tend to use the battery on entry-level EVs; In the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will improve to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that in terms of the share of batteries for pure electric vehicles in 2025, lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36%, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>US battery start-up Kore Power also expects growing demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US. The company's planned Arizona facility in late 2024 will have two assembly lines, one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American automakers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>etc. are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford announced that the two parties will build a new power battery factory in Michigan, USA to cooperate in producing lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to 3.5 billion US dollars. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the whole vehicle, with some equipment coming from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">General Motors</a>The company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs, an executive of the company said in February.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter Japanese car market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3rd, Okayama Prefecture, Japan launched the plan to build the largest battery factory in Japan, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The annual battery production capacity is 5 GWh (1 GW is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households in one day.</p><p>Leading the project is PowerX (Minato-ku, Tokyo), a renewable energy start-up founded in 2021. As the driving force, PowerX has set its sights on lithium iron phosphate batteries rather than the current mainstream of stationary storage batteries-ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at the new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging devices in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese Enterprises Accelerate Expansion</h2>The data shows that Chinese enterprises occupy an overwhelming advantage in the field of vehicle batteries as the main battlefield.</p><p>According to data from South Korea's SNE survey, in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>The first place is CATL, and the second place is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The first two are occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten enterprises in the world, there are 6 Chinese enterprises, with a total share of more than 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China also leads the rest of the world in terms of the speed at which the EV market is expanding. Since 2010, China has granted subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles, and also provided preferential treatment in the location of battery factories, which has accelerated the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation of lithium iron phosphate batteries, China's CATL, the world's largest vehicle battery company, is taking the lead.</p><p>In July 2022, CATL's chief scientist, Kai Wu, said the company's battery can give a pure electric vehicle a range of more than 700 kilometers on a single charge. CATL will launch \"M3P\" batteries improved from lithium iron phosphate batteries in 2023. Range can exceed major pure EVs such as Nissan's 'Leaf'.</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, a form of lithium-ion batteries, are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Until then, lithium iron phosphate batteries had been less popular in the U.S. because it had worse endurance than batteries like the NMC, but could be charged more times before performance dropped significantly. For American drivers, range is seen as too important to sacrifice it for price, says Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have advised you to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is that,<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As EV sales grow, so do the costs of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also skyrocketed. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where working conditions are terrible. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to where they were about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery\", the advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery can be seen.</p><p><b>As the patent expires, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has also become cheaper in the United States.</b>Additionally, the adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, driven by federal government subsidies, potentially reducing driver concerns about battery endurance. From the point of view of safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>Risk Warning and Disclaimer</p><p>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927731374,"gmtCreate":1672587259998,"gmtModify":1676538707879,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927731374","repostId":"9927108869","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9927108869,"gmtCreate":1672412401351,"gmtModify":1676538687732,"author":{"id":"3527667628464496","authorId":"3527667628464496","name":"Tiger_Newspress","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667628464496","idStr":"3527667628464496"},"themes":[],"title":"Meme Stocks Slid in Morning Trading","htmlText":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%;&nbsp;AMC&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%;&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%.Shares of firms such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC(AMC)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>, and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a> surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","listText":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%;&nbsp;AMC&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%;&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%.Shares of firms such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC(AMC)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>, and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a> surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","text":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.$Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ fell nearly 4%; AMC fell nearly 3%; BlackBerry fell over 2%.Shares of firms such as $AMC(AMC)$, $GameStop(GME)$, and $Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887e6454d6a3e69c4b2ea3e81d13cbfd","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927108869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967547059,"gmtCreate":1670366412872,"gmtModify":1676538351217,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28eb1c7180898f7eaa0274aa01700106","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967547059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}