钱包君你要振作起来 personal page - To The Moon

钱包君你要振作起来

钱包君你要振作起来

钱包大人你不能再瘦下去了

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-12

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Reminder: Starting March 12, the United States will enter daylight saving time, and US stocks will open one hour earlier.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-10

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@Envision Research:[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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JPMorgan: Powell's downward pressure on the S&P 500; a drop below 3900 will lead to an accelerated selling pressure.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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JPMorgan: Powell's downward pressure on the S&P 500; a drop below 3900 will lead to an accelerated selling pressure.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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A surge of 192% month-on-month! Global central banks continued to buy gold in January.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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Powell has no choice but to use "recession to defeat inflation".

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-09

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Why is the Federal Reserve once again becoming key to A-shares? Can the Chinese market develop an independent trend?

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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The non-farm payrolls report has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be another one on Friday?

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Market news: US safety regulators are investigating a possible detachment of Tesla's steering wheel.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-08

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Market news: US safety regulators are investigating a possible detachment of Tesla's steering wheel.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Lei Jun's New Story

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-05

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Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-04

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-02

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Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-over-year, and its fiscal year 2024 performance guidance fell short of expectations.

钱包君你要振作起来

2023-03-01

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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13:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: Starting March 12, the United States will enter daylight saving time, and US stocks will open one hour earlier.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120362149","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国2023年夏令时将于2023年3月12日美东时间02：00开始，至2023年11月5日美东时间02：00终止。届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Daylight Saving Time in the United States in 2023 will begin at 02:00 Eastern Time on March 12, 2023, and end at 02:00 Eastern Time on November 5, 2023. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the US stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, from 21:30 to 04:00 the next day, Monday to Friday; March 13 was the first trading day for US stocks after the start of daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM (No lunch break); Beijing time: 21:30-04:00 the next day</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 04:00-09:30; Beijing time: 16:00-21:30</p><p><b>After-hours trading</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 16:00-20:00; Beijing time: 04:00-08:00</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday of March to the first Sunday of November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday of November to the second Sunday of March of the following year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: Starting March 12, the United States will enter daylight saving time, and US stocks will open one hour earlier.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: Starting March 12, the United States will enter daylight saving time, and US stocks will open one hour earlier.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-06 13:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Daylight Saving Time in the United States in 2023 will begin at 02:00 Eastern Time on March 12, 2023, and end at 02:00 Eastern Time on November 5, 2023. At that time, the Beijing time corresponding to the regular trading hours of the US stock market will be advanced by one hour, that is, from 21:30 to 04:00 the next day, Monday to Friday; March 13 was the first trading day for US stocks after the start of daylight saving time.</p><p><b>Trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM (No lunch break); Beijing time: 21:30-04:00 the next day</p><p><b>Pre-market trading hours</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 04:00-09:30; Beijing time: 16:00-21:30</p><p><b>After-hours trading</b></p><p>Eastern Time: 16:00-20:00; Beijing time: 04:00-08:00</p><p>(Note: Daylight saving time is from the second Sunday of March to the first Sunday of November each year, and winter time is from the first Sunday of November to the second Sunday of March of the following year.)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69c49b7e49385a32a49c0ed123c91847","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120362149","content_text":"美国2023年夏令时将于2023年3月12日美东时间02：00开始，至2023年11月5日美东时间02：00终止。届时美股市场的常规交易时段对应的北京时间将提前1小时，即变为周一至周五21：30至次日04：00；3月13日为进入夏令时后美股首个交易日。交易时间美国东部时间：09：30~16：00 (午间不休市)；北京时间：21：30~次日04：00盘前交易时间美国东部时间：04：00~09：30；北京时间：16：00~21:30盘后交易时间美国东部时间：16：00~20：00；北京时间：04：00~08：00（注：夏令时为每年3月的第二个星期日至11月的第一个星期日，冬令时为每年11月的第一个星期日至次年3月的第二个星期日。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949171377,"gmtCreate":1678460041199,"gmtModify":1678460045037,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949171377","repostId":"9949328649","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9949328649,"gmtCreate":1678377533582,"gmtModify":1678378068478,"author":{"id":"4124253684228252","authorId":"4124253684228252","name":"Envision Research","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5fb35ced789c59ffb4c3d0600289d984","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4124253684228252","authorIdStr":"4124253684228252"},"themes":[],"title":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds ","htmlText":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","listText":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","text":"[Market Outlook] Rates and Bonds Summary This is a repost of an article provided to our investment community at Seeking Alpha. The main purpose is to provide our outlook and action plan given the odds of further rate hikes after Powell’s recent comments. You have good reasons to be concerned about a recession. The yield curve remains inverted – at the deepest unseen level since the 1980s. Here I want to remind you about the limitations of this popular signal before taking action. After all, what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so. Toward the end, I will also describe a few other alternative signals and our investment actions (especially in bonds). Yield-curve inversion and its limitations With the recent comments from Powell, the r","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec1383b799fd10fca73734e18af27f43","width":"975","height":"482"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949328649","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315570,"gmtCreate":1678362711390,"gmtModify":1678362713241,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315570","repostId":"1155614396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155614396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678355356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155614396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 17:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: Powell's downward pressure on the S&P 500; a drop below 3900 will lead to an accelerated selling pressure.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155614396","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the 3,900-point support level, it may trigger an accelerated sell-off, and the index is still too high, so even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market.</b><b>After breaking through the resistance level of 4060-4089 points, the S&P 500 index tested the level around 3900 points again.</b>Our bank believes that<b>A drop below 3900 points could lead to an accelerated selling pressure.</b>This is because this point has been a fork in the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is currently consistent with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank considers 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after a break below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic forecast is...<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will retest the low of 3,500 points in October 2022, forming a bottom for the cycle. This depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve bottomed out in September 2022.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macroeconomic environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established a cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations causing the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to be restarted whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that<b>The possibility of the S&P 500 falling further to the next support level around 3200 points and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 has increased.</b></p><p>Although there has been a recent decline,<b>However, compared to the shape of the money market curve (based on expectations of terminal interest rates and the magnitude of interest rate cuts within 24 months of reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, overvalued by 5%.</b>The remaining performance of the S&P 500 derived from this regression model is roughly consistent with the U.S. economic activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, the stock market is unlikely to recover due to weak economic data.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>All other things being equal, the stock market will face additional downward pressure.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures risk falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through the upward trend in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A break below this support level could not only lead to a large number of liquidations but also a general deterioration in sentiment in high-risk markets.</b>Because copper is generally regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in several risk markets are once again threatened with falling below them, including the S&P 500.</b></p><p>After breaking through the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key convergence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, as well as two frequently mentioned CTA trigger points (3-month and 6-month trend momentum). In addition, the area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement that rebounded from October to February, including the internal trendline of the 2022 bear market rebound, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 points have been a fork in the index, serving as either support or resistance during this period (see the blue dashed line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the low of 3491 points in October 2022, and the repeated failure of the 4100-point resistance zone that we were optimistic about in the first few months of 2023, lead us to believe that...<b>The rebound is merely a counter-trend rise in a sustained bear market. In our view, a break below the 3888-3971 support level would not only validate this assessment, but we also suspect it would accelerate the downward trend, potentially falling first to the December low of 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line of 3760 in October.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3698 points on November 3, 3642 points at the 78.6% retracement point in October, and a large number of long-term levels near 3500 points that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe that a cyclical low in the first half of 2023 may retest this support level. However, following the release of a series of better-than-expected economic data, the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations increased the probability of risk scenarios, and the S&P 500 slid towards support around 3200 before bottoming out. A more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve bottomed out when it fell 30 basis points in September 2022. During the period of supply-side constraints and recurring inflationary shocks in the late 1960s and 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see the price trend in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The most recent bear market flattening was at the low point in September. In the coming weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>News that is negative for economic growth may not be beneficial to the stock market in the short term.</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price trends.</b>As we recently pointed out, the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued compared to the currency market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the expected terminal interest rate and the magnitude of the interest rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate were used as independent variables.<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, and is more than 1.5 standard deviations higher than the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Unexpected Index appears to be consistent with the residual price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months following the real rebound in inflation data in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indices. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations could lead to a slight decline in the S&P 500 due to weaker-than-expected short-term economic data, as the index’s excessive residual abundance is more extreme than the market’s adjustment to lower terminal interest rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all these factors suggests that, assuming a terminal interest rate of 5% (a dovish 65 basis point shift), followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), and a surprise pullback/retracement in the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Index in January and February coinciding with the expected hawkish shift in policy, the S&P 500 would be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we noted last time,<b>Other global markets are also above key technical levels. If, as the S&P 500 falls below 3,900 points, these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels, it could trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets linked to China's reopening and rebound in market activity are approaching the January breakout range, with moving averages fluctuating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on copper futures, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching a key support level below 400 points.</b>This includes the fourth quarter range high/January breakout point, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in January, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in July, and the January-February swing target levels (see chart below).<b>A break below this obvious inflection point would not only lead to an increase in liquidations, but also prevent the market from maintaining the breakout in the fourth quarter of 2022, which could generally worsen sentiment in high-risk markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: Powell's downward pressure on the S&P 500; a drop below 3900 will lead to an accelerated selling pressure.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: Powell's downward pressure on the S&P 500; a drop below 3900 will lead to an accelerated selling pressure.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 17:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the 3,900-point support level, it may trigger an accelerated sell-off, and the index is still too high, so even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market.</b><b>After breaking through the resistance level of 4060-4089 points, the S&P 500 index tested the level around 3900 points again.</b>Our bank believes that<b>A drop below 3900 points could lead to an accelerated selling pressure.</b>This is because this point has been a fork in the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is currently consistent with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank considers 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after a break below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic forecast is...<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will retest the low of 3,500 points in October 2022, forming a bottom for the cycle. This depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve bottomed out in September 2022.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macroeconomic environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established a cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations causing the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to be restarted whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that<b>The possibility of the S&P 500 falling further to the next support level around 3200 points and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 has increased.</b></p><p>Although there has been a recent decline,<b>However, compared to the shape of the money market curve (based on expectations of terminal interest rates and the magnitude of interest rate cuts within 24 months of reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, overvalued by 5%.</b>The remaining performance of the S&P 500 derived from this regression model is roughly consistent with the U.S. economic activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, the stock market is unlikely to recover due to weak economic data.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>All other things being equal, the stock market will face additional downward pressure.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures risk falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through the upward trend in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A break below this support level could not only lead to a large number of liquidations but also a general deterioration in sentiment in high-risk markets.</b>Because copper is generally regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in several risk markets are once again threatened with falling below them, including the S&P 500.</b></p><p>After breaking through the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key convergence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, as well as two frequently mentioned CTA trigger points (3-month and 6-month trend momentum). In addition, the area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement that rebounded from October to February, including the internal trendline of the 2022 bear market rebound, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 points have been a fork in the index, serving as either support or resistance during this period (see the blue dashed line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the low of 3491 points in October 2022, and the repeated failure of the 4100-point resistance zone that we were optimistic about in the first few months of 2023, lead us to believe that...<b>The rebound is merely a counter-trend rise in a sustained bear market. In our view, a break below the 3888-3971 support level would not only validate this assessment, but we also suspect it would accelerate the downward trend, potentially falling first to the December low of 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line of 3760 in October.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3698 points on November 3, 3642 points at the 78.6% retracement point in October, and a large number of long-term levels near 3500 points that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe that a cyclical low in the first half of 2023 may retest this support level. However, following the release of a series of better-than-expected economic data, the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations increased the probability of risk scenarios, and the S&P 500 slid towards support around 3200 before bottoming out. A more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve bottomed out when it fell 30 basis points in September 2022. During the period of supply-side constraints and recurring inflationary shocks in the late 1960s and 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see the price trend in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The most recent bear market flattening was at the low point in September. In the coming weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>News that is negative for economic growth may not be beneficial to the stock market in the short term.</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price trends.</b>As we recently pointed out, the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued compared to the currency market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the expected terminal interest rate and the magnitude of the interest rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate were used as independent variables.<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, and is more than 1.5 standard deviations higher than the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Unexpected Index appears to be consistent with the residual price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months following the real rebound in inflation data in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indices. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations could lead to a slight decline in the S&P 500 due to weaker-than-expected short-term economic data, as the index’s excessive residual abundance is more extreme than the market’s adjustment to lower terminal interest rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all these factors suggests that, assuming a terminal interest rate of 5% (a dovish 65 basis point shift), followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), and a surprise pullback/retracement in the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Index in January and February coinciding with the expected hawkish shift in policy, the S&P 500 would be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we noted last time,<b>Other global markets are also above key technical levels. If, as the S&P 500 falls below 3,900 points, these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels, it could trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets linked to China's reopening and rebound in market activity are approaching the January breakout range, with moving averages fluctuating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on copper futures, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching a key support level below 400 points.</b>This includes the fourth quarter range high/January breakout point, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in January, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in July, and the January-February swing target levels (see chart below).<b>A break below this obvious inflection point would not only lead to an increase in liquidations, but also prevent the market from maintaining the breakout in the fourth quarter of 2022, which could generally worsen sentiment in high-risk markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155614396","content_text":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900点附近水平。我行认为，跌破3900点可能会导致抛压加速，因为自2022年5月以来，该点一直是标普500的分叉点，目前还与基于动量策略的几个趋势跟踪触发水平保持一致。我行将3760-3764点视为跌破3900点后的初步目标区间。我行的基本情况预测是，23年上半年标普500指数将再次测试2022年10月3500点的低点，为该周期筑底，这在一定程度上取决于5年期/10年期美债收益率曲线已在2022年9月触底的事实。在20世纪70年代供给受限时期，宏观环境受一系列通胀冲击主导时，股市与国债收益率曲线呈正相关，并在收益率曲线建立周期低点后的1-5个月内触底。随着最近鹰派预期让收益率曲线突破2022年9月低点，未来每当曲线触底，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。因此，我行认为，标普500指数进一步下滑至3200点附近的下一支撑位并在2023年上半年触底的可能性有所增加。虽然最近有所回落，但跟货币市场的曲线形状相比（基于终端利率预期和在达到终端利率后24个月内的降息幅度），标普500指数仍然过高，高估达5%。该回归模型得出的标普500指数其余的表现与摩根大通编制的美国经济活动意外指数大致相符，尤其是在2022年年中通胀飙升后的几个月。短期内，受经济数据疲软影响，股市恐怕难以提振。事实上，该模型显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，股市还会出现额外的下行压力。期货铜有跌破386-396关键支撑位的风险。我们认为，2023年一季度行情未能成功上破，如果跌破该支撑位，可能不仅会导致大量平仓，还可能导致高风险市场情绪普遍恶化，因为铜通常被视为全球制造业需求晴雨表。多个风险市场的关键支撑位再度面临跌破威胁，包括标普500指数在跌破2月10日4060点和2月17日4089点的阻力位后，鲍威尔的鹰派言论使标普500指数滑向3900点的关键汇合点附近（见下图）。标普500指数的50日、100日和200日均线都在该点附近汇聚，附近还有两个经常被提及的CTA触发点位（3个月和6个月趋势动量）。另外，该区域还包括10月至2月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤，包含2022年熊市反弹的内部趋势线，以及3900点拐点。自2022年5月以来，3900点就成为该指数的一个分叉点，在此期间要么作为支撑位，要么是阻力位（见下图蓝色虚线）。从模式角度来看，从2022年10月3491点低点上涨的震荡性质，以及2023年前几个月我们看好的4100点阻力区反复失效，这使我们相信，反弹只是持续熊市中的逆势上涨。在我们看来，跌破3888-3971点支撑位不仅会验证这一评估，而且怀疑其会使下行加速，首先可能会跌至12月3764低点和10月的61.8%斐波那契回调线3760点。其他中期支撑位包括11月3日的3698点低点，10月78.6%回调点的3642点，以及去年秋季支撑市场的3500点附近大量的长线点位。在我们2023年的展望中，我们认为23年上半年某个周期的低点可能会重新测试该支撑位。然而，在一系列好于预期的经济数据公布后，美联储的鹰派预期增加了风险情形出现的概率，在筑底之前，标普500指数滑向3200附近的支撑位。更乐观的前景在一定程度上依赖于这样一种观点，即5年期/10年期国债收益率曲线已经在2022年9月降低30基点时筑底。在20世纪60年代末到70年代末的供给侧受限和反复通胀冲击期间，股市与收益率曲线成正相关，并在曲线见底后的1-5个月内见底（见下图绿色圈的价格走势）。最近一次熊市趋平是在9月的低点，未来几周，曲线触底时，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。对经济增长不利的消息，短期内未必对股市有利短期内，鹰派预期最终也会对股价走势构成压力。正如我们最近指出，与货币市场曲线的走势相比，标普500指数的价值似乎被高估了（见下图1）。在18个月的回归模型中，使用终端利率预期和达到终端利率后24个月的降息幅度作为自变量，该指数现在被高估了5%以上，与研究期间的剩余价格表现相比，高出了1.5个标准差以上。摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数看起来与研究期间的标普500指数剩余价格走势一致，特别是在去年年中通胀数据真正回升后的几个月中（见下图2）。在此期间，经济活动意外指数几乎能解释剩余股票指数的一半表现。这些回归模型表明，由于短期内经济数据弱于预期，美联储政策利率预期的正常化可能导致标普500指数小幅走低，因为该指数的过度剩余丰富性比市场根据历史敏感性向较低终端利率的调整更为极端。换句话说，纳入所有这些因素的12个月回归模型表明，假设终端利率为5%（向鸽派65个基点转向），之后降息200个基点（与当前定价相差不远），摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数1-2月的飙升回撤，与政策预期的鹰派转向同时发生，标准普尔500指数的价值会为3875点。最后，正如我们上次指出，全球其他市场也位于关键技术位之上，如果随着标普500指数跌破3900点，这些市场也开始跌破各自关键技术位，就有可能触发投资者避险趋势。具体来说，许多与中国重新开放和市场活动反弹相关的市场正在接近1月的突破区间，某些情况下，移动平均线的震荡频率变小。我们最近重点关注期货铜，因为铜经常被视为全球制造业需求的风向标。工业金属期货市场正接近400点以下的关键支撑位，包括第四季度区间高点/1月突破点位、1月61.8%斐波那契回调、7月38.2%斐波那契回调和1-2月等波段目标位（见下图）。跌破这一明显的拐点不仅会促使平仓增加，而且无法维持22年第四季度的行情突破，可能使高风险市场情绪普遍恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315213,"gmtCreate":1678362705733,"gmtModify":1678362709450,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315213","repostId":"1155614396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155614396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678355356,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155614396?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 17:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"JPMorgan: Powell's downward pressure on the S&P 500; a drop below 3900 will lead to an accelerated selling pressure.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155614396","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the 3,900-point support level, it may trigger an accelerated sell-off, and the index is still too high, so even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market.</b><b>After breaking through the resistance level of 4060-4089 points, the S&P 500 index tested the level around 3900 points again.</b>Our bank believes that<b>A drop below 3900 points could lead to an accelerated selling pressure.</b>This is because this point has been a fork in the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is currently consistent with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank considers 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after a break below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic forecast is...<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will retest the low of 3,500 points in October 2022, forming a bottom for the cycle. This depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve bottomed out in September 2022.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macroeconomic environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established a cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations causing the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to be restarted whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that<b>The possibility of the S&P 500 falling further to the next support level around 3200 points and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 has increased.</b></p><p>Although there has been a recent decline,<b>However, compared to the shape of the money market curve (based on expectations of terminal interest rates and the magnitude of interest rate cuts within 24 months of reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, overvalued by 5%.</b>The remaining performance of the S&P 500 derived from this regression model is roughly consistent with the U.S. economic activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, the stock market is unlikely to recover due to weak economic data.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>All other things being equal, the stock market will face additional downward pressure.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures risk falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through the upward trend in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A break below this support level could not only lead to a large number of liquidations but also a general deterioration in sentiment in high-risk markets.</b>Because copper is generally regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in several risk markets are once again threatened with falling below them, including the S&P 500.</b></p><p>After breaking through the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key convergence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, as well as two frequently mentioned CTA trigger points (3-month and 6-month trend momentum). In addition, the area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement that rebounded from October to February, including the internal trendline of the 2022 bear market rebound, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 points have been a fork in the index, serving as either support or resistance during this period (see the blue dashed line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the low of 3491 points in October 2022, and the repeated failure of the 4100-point resistance zone that we were optimistic about in the first few months of 2023, lead us to believe that...<b>The rebound is merely a counter-trend rise in a sustained bear market. In our view, a break below the 3888-3971 support level would not only validate this assessment, but we also suspect it would accelerate the downward trend, potentially falling first to the December low of 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line of 3760 in October.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3698 points on November 3, 3642 points at the 78.6% retracement point in October, and a large number of long-term levels near 3500 points that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe that a cyclical low in the first half of 2023 may retest this support level. However, following the release of a series of better-than-expected economic data, the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations increased the probability of risk scenarios, and the S&P 500 slid towards support around 3200 before bottoming out. A more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve bottomed out when it fell 30 basis points in September 2022. During the period of supply-side constraints and recurring inflationary shocks in the late 1960s and 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see the price trend in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The most recent bear market flattening was at the low point in September. In the coming weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>News that is negative for economic growth may not be beneficial to the stock market in the short term.</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price trends.</b>As we recently pointed out, the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued compared to the currency market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the expected terminal interest rate and the magnitude of the interest rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate were used as independent variables.<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, and is more than 1.5 standard deviations higher than the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Unexpected Index appears to be consistent with the residual price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months following the real rebound in inflation data in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indices. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations could lead to a slight decline in the S&P 500 due to weaker-than-expected short-term economic data, as the index’s excessive residual abundance is more extreme than the market’s adjustment to lower terminal interest rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all these factors suggests that, assuming a terminal interest rate of 5% (a dovish 65 basis point shift), followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), and a surprise pullback/retracement in the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Index in January and February coinciding with the expected hawkish shift in policy, the S&P 500 would be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we noted last time,<b>Other global markets are also above key technical levels. If, as the S&P 500 falls below 3,900 points, these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels, it could trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets linked to China's reopening and rebound in market activity are approaching the January breakout range, with moving averages fluctuating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on copper futures, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching a key support level below 400 points.</b>This includes the fourth quarter range high/January breakout point, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in January, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in July, and the January-February swing target levels (see chart below).<b>A break below this obvious inflection point would not only lead to an increase in liquidations, but also prevent the market from maintaining the breakout in the fourth quarter of 2022, which could generally worsen sentiment in high-risk markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan: Powell's downward pressure on the S&P 500; a drop below 3900 will lead to an accelerated selling pressure.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan: Powell's downward pressure on the S&P 500; a drop below 3900 will lead to an accelerated selling pressure.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 17:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>JPMorgan released a technical analysis pointing out that if the S&P 500 index falls below the 3,900-point support level, it may trigger an accelerated sell-off, and the index is still too high, so even if the economic data is weak, it may be difficult to boost the stock market.</b><b>After breaking through the resistance level of 4060-4089 points, the S&P 500 index tested the level around 3900 points again.</b>Our bank believes that<b>A drop below 3900 points could lead to an accelerated selling pressure.</b>This is because this point has been a fork in the S&P 500 since May 2022 and is currently consistent with several trend-following trigger levels based on momentum strategies.<b>Our bank considers 3760-3764 points as the initial target range after a break below 3900 points.</b></p><p>Our bank's basic forecast is...<b>In the first half of 2023, the S&P 500 will retest the low of 3,500 points in October 2022, forming a bottom for the cycle. This depends in part on the fact that the 5-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve bottomed out in September 2022.</b>During the supply-constrained period of the 1970s, when the macroeconomic environment was dominated by a series of inflationary shocks, the stock market was positively correlated with the Treasury Bond yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the yield curve established a cyclical low. With recent hawkish expectations causing the yield curve to break through the September 2022 low, the 1-5 month countdown will have to be restarted whenever the curve bottoms out in the future. Therefore, our bank believes that<b>The possibility of the S&P 500 falling further to the next support level around 3200 points and bottoming out in the first half of 2023 has increased.</b></p><p>Although there has been a recent decline,<b>However, compared to the shape of the money market curve (based on expectations of terminal interest rates and the magnitude of interest rate cuts within 24 months of reaching the terminal interest rate), the S&P 500 index is still too high, overvalued by 5%.</b>The remaining performance of the S&P 500 derived from this regression model is roughly consistent with the U.S. economic activity surprise index compiled by JPMorgan Chase, especially in the months following the surge in inflation in mid-2022.<b>In the short term, the stock market is unlikely to recover due to weak economic data.</b>In fact, the model shows that,<b>All other things being equal, the stock market will face additional downward pressure.</b></p><p><b>Copper futures risk falling below the key support level of 386-396.</b>We believe that the market failed to break through the upward trend in the first quarter of 2023.<b>A break below this support level could not only lead to a large number of liquidations but also a general deterioration in sentiment in high-risk markets.</b>Because copper is generally regarded as a barometer of global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>Key support levels in several risk markets are once again threatened with falling below them, including the S&P 500.</b></p><p>After breaking through the resistance levels of 4060 on February 10 and 4089 on February 17, Powell's hawkish comments sent the S&P 500 sliding near the key convergence point of 3900 (see chart below). The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages of the S&P 500 all converge near this point, as well as two frequently mentioned CTA trigger points (3-month and 6-month trend momentum). In addition, the area also includes the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback/retracement that rebounded from October to February, including the internal trendline of the 2022 bear market rebound, and the 3,900-point inflection point. Since May 2022, 3900 points have been a fork in the index, serving as either support or resistance during this period (see the blue dashed line in the chart below). From a pattern perspective, the volatile nature of the rise from the low of 3491 points in October 2022, and the repeated failure of the 4100-point resistance zone that we were optimistic about in the first few months of 2023, lead us to believe that...<b>The rebound is merely a counter-trend rise in a sustained bear market. In our view, a break below the 3888-3971 support level would not only validate this assessment, but we also suspect it would accelerate the downward trend, potentially falling first to the December low of 3764 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line of 3760 in October.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4977f659422f3aed5fde861311a2fd1d\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Other medium-term support levels include the low of 3698 points on November 3, 3642 points at the 78.6% retracement point in October, and a large number of long-term levels near 3500 points that supported the market last fall. In our 2023 outlook, we believe that a cyclical low in the first half of 2023 may retest this support level. However, following the release of a series of better-than-expected economic data, the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations increased the probability of risk scenarios, and the S&P 500 slid towards support around 3200 before bottoming out. A more optimistic outlook relies in part on the view that the 5-year/10-year Treasury Bond yield curve bottomed out when it fell 30 basis points in September 2022. During the period of supply-side constraints and recurring inflationary shocks in the late 1960s and 1970s, the stock market was positively correlated with the yield curve and bottomed out within 1-5 months after the curve bottomed out (see the price trend in the green circle in the chart below).<b>The most recent bear market flattening was at the low point in September. In the coming weeks, when the curve bottoms out, the 1-5 month countdown will have to restart.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eaa67ccd74774906b5758a4a3b585096\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"612\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>News that is negative for economic growth may not be beneficial to the stock market in the short term.</b></p><p><b>In the short term, hawkish expectations will eventually put pressure on stock price trends.</b>As we recently pointed out, the S&P 500 appears to be overvalued compared to the currency market curve (see Figure 1 below). In the 18-month regression model, the expected terminal interest rate and the magnitude of the interest rate cut 24 months after reaching the terminal interest rate were used as independent variables.<b>The index is now overvalued by more than 5%, and is more than 1.5 standard deviations higher than the remaining price performance during the study period.</b>The JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Unexpected Index appears to be consistent with the residual price movement of the S&P 500 during the study period, especially in the months following the real rebound in inflation data in the middle of last year (see Figure 2 below). During this period, the economic activity surprise index explained almost half of the performance of the remaining stock indices. These regression models suggest that the normalization of Fed policy rate expectations could lead to a slight decline in the S&P 500 due to weaker-than-expected short-term economic data, as the index’s excessive residual abundance is more extreme than the market’s adjustment to lower terminal interest rates based on historical sensitivity. In other words,<b>A 12-month regression model that incorporates all these factors suggests that, assuming a terminal interest rate of 5% (a dovish 65 basis point shift), followed by a 200 basis point rate cut (not far from current pricing), and a surprise pullback/retracement in the JPMorgan U.S. Economic Activity Index in January and February coinciding with the expected hawkish shift in policy, the S&P 500 would be worth 3,875 points.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af2182862dfa70c89fe093cc71e9ce2\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60923e774e759c5646a1bea34f72d9f\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, as we noted last time,<b>Other global markets are also above key technical levels. If, as the S&P 500 falls below 3,900 points, these markets also begin to fall below their respective key technical levels, it could trigger a risk aversion trend among investors.</b>Specifically,<b>Many markets linked to China's reopening and rebound in market activity are approaching the January breakout range, with moving averages fluctuating less frequently in some cases.</b>We have recently focused on copper futures, as copper is often seen as a bellwether for global manufacturing demand.</p><p><b>The industrial metals futures market is approaching a key support level below 400 points.</b>This includes the fourth quarter range high/January breakout point, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement in January, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in July, and the January-February swing target levels (see chart below).<b>A break below this obvious inflection point would not only lead to an increase in liquidations, but also prevent the market from maintaining the breakout in the fourth quarter of 2022, which could generally worsen sentiment in high-risk markets.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9cd9ef6ff4997ebaaffbeb35d0e3bc\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><hr/></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/108066","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155614396","content_text":"小摩发布技术分析，指出若标普500指数跌破3900点支撑位，可能引发抛售加速，而且该指数仍然过高，即使经济数据疲软恐怕也难以提振股市？标普500指数在跌破4060-4089点阻力位后，再次测试3900点附近水平。我行认为，跌破3900点可能会导致抛压加速，因为自2022年5月以来，该点一直是标普500的分叉点，目前还与基于动量策略的几个趋势跟踪触发水平保持一致。我行将3760-3764点视为跌破3900点后的初步目标区间。我行的基本情况预测是，23年上半年标普500指数将再次测试2022年10月3500点的低点，为该周期筑底，这在一定程度上取决于5年期/10年期美债收益率曲线已在2022年9月触底的事实。在20世纪70年代供给受限时期，宏观环境受一系列通胀冲击主导时，股市与国债收益率曲线呈正相关，并在收益率曲线建立周期低点后的1-5个月内触底。随着最近鹰派预期让收益率曲线突破2022年9月低点，未来每当曲线触底，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。因此，我行认为，标普500指数进一步下滑至3200点附近的下一支撑位并在2023年上半年触底的可能性有所增加。虽然最近有所回落，但跟货币市场的曲线形状相比（基于终端利率预期和在达到终端利率后24个月内的降息幅度），标普500指数仍然过高，高估达5%。该回归模型得出的标普500指数其余的表现与摩根大通编制的美国经济活动意外指数大致相符，尤其是在2022年年中通胀飙升后的几个月。短期内，受经济数据疲软影响，股市恐怕难以提振。事实上，该模型显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，股市还会出现额外的下行压力。期货铜有跌破386-396关键支撑位的风险。我们认为，2023年一季度行情未能成功上破，如果跌破该支撑位，可能不仅会导致大量平仓，还可能导致高风险市场情绪普遍恶化，因为铜通常被视为全球制造业需求晴雨表。多个风险市场的关键支撑位再度面临跌破威胁，包括标普500指数在跌破2月10日4060点和2月17日4089点的阻力位后，鲍威尔的鹰派言论使标普500指数滑向3900点的关键汇合点附近（见下图）。标普500指数的50日、100日和200日均线都在该点附近汇聚，附近还有两个经常被提及的CTA触发点位（3个月和6个月趋势动量）。另外，该区域还包括10月至2月反弹的38.2%斐波那契回撤，包含2022年熊市反弹的内部趋势线，以及3900点拐点。自2022年5月以来，3900点就成为该指数的一个分叉点，在此期间要么作为支撑位，要么是阻力位（见下图蓝色虚线）。从模式角度来看，从2022年10月3491点低点上涨的震荡性质，以及2023年前几个月我们看好的4100点阻力区反复失效，这使我们相信，反弹只是持续熊市中的逆势上涨。在我们看来，跌破3888-3971点支撑位不仅会验证这一评估，而且怀疑其会使下行加速，首先可能会跌至12月3764低点和10月的61.8%斐波那契回调线3760点。其他中期支撑位包括11月3日的3698点低点，10月78.6%回调点的3642点，以及去年秋季支撑市场的3500点附近大量的长线点位。在我们2023年的展望中，我们认为23年上半年某个周期的低点可能会重新测试该支撑位。然而，在一系列好于预期的经济数据公布后，美联储的鹰派预期增加了风险情形出现的概率，在筑底之前，标普500指数滑向3200附近的支撑位。更乐观的前景在一定程度上依赖于这样一种观点，即5年期/10年期国债收益率曲线已经在2022年9月降低30基点时筑底。在20世纪60年代末到70年代末的供给侧受限和反复通胀冲击期间，股市与收益率曲线成正相关，并在曲线见底后的1-5个月内见底（见下图绿色圈的价格走势）。最近一次熊市趋平是在9月的低点，未来几周，曲线触底时，1-5个月的倒计时就得重启。对经济增长不利的消息，短期内未必对股市有利短期内，鹰派预期最终也会对股价走势构成压力。正如我们最近指出，与货币市场曲线的走势相比，标普500指数的价值似乎被高估了（见下图1）。在18个月的回归模型中，使用终端利率预期和达到终端利率后24个月的降息幅度作为自变量，该指数现在被高估了5%以上，与研究期间的剩余价格表现相比，高出了1.5个标准差以上。摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数看起来与研究期间的标普500指数剩余价格走势一致，特别是在去年年中通胀数据真正回升后的几个月中（见下图2）。在此期间，经济活动意外指数几乎能解释剩余股票指数的一半表现。这些回归模型表明，由于短期内经济数据弱于预期，美联储政策利率预期的正常化可能导致标普500指数小幅走低，因为该指数的过度剩余丰富性比市场根据历史敏感性向较低终端利率的调整更为极端。换句话说，纳入所有这些因素的12个月回归模型表明，假设终端利率为5%（向鸽派65个基点转向），之后降息200个基点（与当前定价相差不远），摩根大通美国经济活动意外指数1-2月的飙升回撤，与政策预期的鹰派转向同时发生，标准普尔500指数的价值会为3875点。最后，正如我们上次指出，全球其他市场也位于关键技术位之上，如果随着标普500指数跌破3900点，这些市场也开始跌破各自关键技术位，就有可能触发投资者避险趋势。具体来说，许多与中国重新开放和市场活动反弹相关的市场正在接近1月的突破区间，某些情况下，移动平均线的震荡频率变小。我们最近重点关注期货铜，因为铜经常被视为全球制造业需求的风向标。工业金属期货市场正接近400点以下的关键支撑位，包括第四季度区间高点/1月突破点位、1月61.8%斐波那契回调、7月38.2%斐波那契回调和1-2月等波段目标位（见下图）。跌破这一明显的拐点不仅会促使平仓增加，而且无法维持22年第四季度的行情突破，可能使高风险市场情绪普遍恶化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315647,"gmtCreate":1678362686090,"gmtModify":1678362689373,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315647","repostId":"1119353536","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119353536","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678357871,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119353536?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 18:31","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A surge of 192% month-on-month! Global central banks continued to buy gold in January.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119353536","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"它才是真正的资产。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>After setting a record for net gold purchases last year, central banks around the world have not diminished their enthusiasm in the slightest, reigniting a frenzy of gold hoarding.</p><p>The latest data compiled by the World Gold Council shows that global central banks' net gold reserves increased by 77 tons in January this year.<b>It surged by 192% compared to December last year.</b>This exceeds the 20-60 ton range of consecutive net purchases over the past 10 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7637288dbe6d5d30b0bf80396b89ae45\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Among them, the Central Bank of Türkiye, the largest gold buyer throughout 2022 and in January of this year, purchased another 23 tons of gold. The Central Bank of Türkiye currently holds 565 tons of gold.</b></p><p>Türkiye has been struggling with rampant inflation: last October, Türkiye's inflation rate accelerated to 85%. The Turkish lira depreciated by nearly 30% last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira terms rose by 40% year-on-year.</p><p>China's gold reserves increased by another 14.9 tons in January after increasing by 62 tons between November and December 2022. The increase in gold holdings during this period last year was the first increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China in more than three years.</p><p>The European Central Bank reported that gold holdings increased by nearly 2 tons in January. The World Gold Council stated that this is related to Croatia's accession to the Eurozone. After selling more than 30 tons of gold reserves in November and December last year, the Central Bank of Kazakhstan slightly increased its gold holdings by 3.9 tons in January.</p><p>The Bank of Singapore announced that it purchased 45 tons of gold in January, a 29% increase month-on-month. The World Gold Council then revised the initial report of 31 tons to the current 77 tons. The Bank of Singapore's current gold holdings have increased from 153.8 tons to 198.4 tons.</p><p><b>The only country to reduce its gold holdings in January was Uzbekistan, whose gold reserves decreased by 12 tons.</b></p><p>The World Gold Council expects central banks to continue buying gold this year, but the purchase rate may not reach the record levels of 2022:</p><p><b>Looking ahead, we believe there is no reason to doubt that central banks will remain positive about gold and continue to be net buyers of gold in 2023.</b>However, as we said at the beginning of 2022, it is difficult to predict how much purchases will be made. However, we also have reason to believe that central bank demand in 2023 may struggle to reach last year's level. In 2022, central banks purchased a total of 1,136 tons of gold, the highest net purchase since records began in 1950, breaking the net purchase record set in 1971 when the US dollar was decoupled from gold, and marking the 13th consecutive year that central banks around the world have made net purchases of gold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22b563b734c093204730cb31f24960e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The World Gold Council stated that<b>There are two main driving factors for central banks to purchase gold: first, gold's role as a safe haven during crises; and second, gold's role as a long-term store of value (to combat inflation). Therefore, it is not surprising that central banks have chosen to accelerate their gold holdings in a year of high geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation.</b></p><p>Juan Carlos Artigas, head of global research at the World Gold Council, told the media that the large-scale purchases highlight the fact that gold remains an important asset in the global monetary system: \"Although gold is no longer backed by any currency, it is still in use. Why? Because it is the real asset.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A surge of 192% month-on-month! Global central banks continued to buy gold in January.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA surge of 192% month-on-month! Global central banks continued to buy gold in January.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 18:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>After setting a record for net gold purchases last year, central banks around the world have not diminished their enthusiasm in the slightest, reigniting a frenzy of gold hoarding.</p><p>The latest data compiled by the World Gold Council shows that global central banks' net gold reserves increased by 77 tons in January this year.<b>It surged by 192% compared to December last year.</b>This exceeds the 20-60 ton range of consecutive net purchases over the past 10 months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7637288dbe6d5d30b0bf80396b89ae45\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Among them, the Central Bank of Türkiye, the largest gold buyer throughout 2022 and in January of this year, purchased another 23 tons of gold. The Central Bank of Türkiye currently holds 565 tons of gold.</b></p><p>Türkiye has been struggling with rampant inflation: last October, Türkiye's inflation rate accelerated to 85%. The Turkish lira depreciated by nearly 30% last year. Meanwhile, the price of gold in lira terms rose by 40% year-on-year.</p><p>China's gold reserves increased by another 14.9 tons in January after increasing by 62 tons between November and December 2022. The increase in gold holdings during this period last year was the first increase in holdings by the People's Bank of China in more than three years.</p><p>The European Central Bank reported that gold holdings increased by nearly 2 tons in January. The World Gold Council stated that this is related to Croatia's accession to the Eurozone. After selling more than 30 tons of gold reserves in November and December last year, the Central Bank of Kazakhstan slightly increased its gold holdings by 3.9 tons in January.</p><p>The Bank of Singapore announced that it purchased 45 tons of gold in January, a 29% increase month-on-month. The World Gold Council then revised the initial report of 31 tons to the current 77 tons. The Bank of Singapore's current gold holdings have increased from 153.8 tons to 198.4 tons.</p><p><b>The only country to reduce its gold holdings in January was Uzbekistan, whose gold reserves decreased by 12 tons.</b></p><p>The World Gold Council expects central banks to continue buying gold this year, but the purchase rate may not reach the record levels of 2022:</p><p><b>Looking ahead, we believe there is no reason to doubt that central banks will remain positive about gold and continue to be net buyers of gold in 2023.</b>However, as we said at the beginning of 2022, it is difficult to predict how much purchases will be made. However, we also have reason to believe that central bank demand in 2023 may struggle to reach last year's level. In 2022, central banks purchased a total of 1,136 tons of gold, the highest net purchase since records began in 1950, breaking the net purchase record set in 1971 when the US dollar was decoupled from gold, and marking the 13th consecutive year that central banks around the world have made net purchases of gold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22b563b734c093204730cb31f24960e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The World Gold Council stated that<b>There are two main driving factors for central banks to purchase gold: first, gold's role as a safe haven during crises; and second, gold's role as a long-term store of value (to combat inflation). Therefore, it is not surprising that central banks have chosen to accelerate their gold holdings in a year of high geopolitical uncertainty and rampant inflation.</b></p><p>Juan Carlos Artigas, head of global research at the World Gold Council, told the media that the large-scale purchases highlight the fact that gold remains an important asset in the global monetary system: \"Although gold is no longer backed by any currency, it is still in use. Why? Because it is the real asset.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683669\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a0a20c59d08f59a8429d9a61eb959c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683669","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1119353536","content_text":"作者：韩旭阳在去年创下黄金净购买量的纪录后，全球央行丝毫没有消减他们的热情，再度掀起了疯狂囤积黄金的热潮。世界黄金协会汇编的最新数据显示，今年1月，全球央行的黄金净储备增加了77吨，较去年12月环比暴增了192%，超过了过去10个月连续净买入的20-60吨范围内。其中，整个2022年和今年1月最大的黄金买家——土耳其央行，再次购买了23吨黄金。土耳其央行目前持有565吨黄金。土耳其一直在与猖獗的通胀作斗争：去年10月，土耳其的通胀率加速飙升至85%。土耳其里拉去年贬值了近30%。与此同时，以里拉计算的黄金价格同比上涨了40%。中国的黄金储备在2022年11月至12月期间增加62吨后，1月份再增加了14.9吨。去年这段时间的黄金增持是中国人民银行三年多来的首次增持。欧洲央行报告称，1月份黄金持有量增加了近2吨。世界黄金协会表示，这与克罗地亚加入欧元区有关。哈萨克斯坦央行在去年11月和12月卖出超过30吨黄金储备后，1月份小幅增持了3.9吨黄金。新加坡央行宣布1月购买了45吨黄金，环比增长了29%。随后世界黄金协会才将最初报告的31吨修正到目前的77吨。新加坡央行目前的黄金持有量从153.8吨增加到了198.4吨。1月份唯一减持黄金的国家是乌兹别克斯坦，其黄金储备减少了12吨。世界黄金协会预计，各国央行今年将继续购买黄金，但购买率可能不会达到2022年的创纪录水平：展望未来，我们认为没有理由怀疑各国央行将对黄金保持积极态度，并在2023年继续成为黄金的净买家。然而，正如我们在2022年初说的那样，很难预测购买量有多少。但我们也有理由相信，2023年的央行需求可能难以达到去年的水平。2022年央行黄金的总购买量为1136吨，这是自1950年有记录以来的最高净购买量，并打破了1971年美元跟黄金脱钩的净购买量记录，也是全球央行连续第13年净买入黄金。世界黄金协会表示，央行购买黄金的主要驱动因素有两个：一是黄金在危机时期的避险作用，二是黄金作为长期价值储存手段（对抗通胀）的作用。因此，在地缘政治高度不确定和通胀猖獗的一年里，各国央行选择加速增持黄金也就不足为奇了。世界黄金协会全球研究主管 Juan Carlos Artigas 向媒体表示，大规模购买突显了黄金仍然是全球货币体系中的重要资产这一事实：“尽管黄金不再为任何货币背书，但它仍在被使用。为什么？因为它才是真正的资产。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GC2304":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315853,"gmtCreate":1678362664873,"gmtModify":1678362667426,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315853","repostId":"1107257184","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315193,"gmtCreate":1678362652712,"gmtModify":1678362655245,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315193","repostId":"2318230395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2318230395","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678342683,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2318230395?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-09 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell has no choice but to use \"recession to defeat inflation\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2318230395","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>According to economist Steven Blitz, if the Federal Reserve wants to beat inflation with a recession, it needs to raise the unemployment rate to at least 4.5%, and possibly as high as 5.5%.</b>The Federal Reserve will not stop rate hike until the U.S. economy enters a recession.</p><p>On Wednesday, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a media interview,<b>Unless Powell creates a recession and unemployment starts to rise, the Federal Reserve will stop rate hike.</b></p><p>Blitz emphasized that the Federal Reserve cannot estimate its interest rate ceiling without an economic recession. Blitz points out:</p><p>They don't know where the highest interest rates are because they don't know where inflation will stabilize without a recession.<b>In my opinion, if the Federal Reserve wants to beat inflation with recession, it needs to raise the unemployment rate to at least 4.5%, and possibly as high as 5.5%.</b>Powell noted during a congressional hearing on Tuesday that recent economic data has been stronger than expected, suggesting that the final interest rate level may be higher than previously anticipated.</p><p><b>This hawkish rhetoric rapidly fueled market rate hike expectations, shifting the focus from a \"no landing\" to a \"hard landing.\"</b>。 The bond market doubled its bets on a U.S. economic recession, with the inversion between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 100 basis points for the first time since 1981.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In its latest report, Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that the forecast for peak interest rates has been raised.</p><p>Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve chooses a rate hike of 25 basis points or 50 basis points,<b>The median forecast for peak interest rates in the March economic forecast summary is expected to reach 5.5%-5.75%.</b>Goldman Sachs also predicts that the data ahead of the March meeting will be mixed. Although the number of job openings in the United States declined in January, it expects the core CPI to rise by 0.45% month-on-month in February, a rebound from the previous value of 0.4%. Therefore, Goldman Sachs</p><p>Our forecast for a 25 basis point rate hike in March is uncertain, and there is a risk of a 50 basis point FOMC rate hike.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell has no choice but to use \"recession to defeat inflation\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell has no choice but to use \"recession to defeat inflation\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-09 14:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>According to economist Steven Blitz, if the Federal Reserve wants to beat inflation with a recession, it needs to raise the unemployment rate to at least 4.5%, and possibly as high as 5.5%.</b>The Federal Reserve will not stop rate hike until the U.S. economy enters a recession.</p><p>On Wednesday, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said in a media interview,<b>Unless Powell creates a recession and unemployment starts to rise, the Federal Reserve will stop rate hike.</b></p><p>Blitz emphasized that the Federal Reserve cannot estimate its interest rate ceiling without an economic recession. Blitz points out:</p><p>They don't know where the highest interest rates are because they don't know where inflation will stabilize without a recession.<b>In my opinion, if the Federal Reserve wants to beat inflation with recession, it needs to raise the unemployment rate to at least 4.5%, and possibly as high as 5.5%.</b>Powell noted during a congressional hearing on Tuesday that recent economic data has been stronger than expected, suggesting that the final interest rate level may be higher than previously anticipated.</p><p><b>This hawkish rhetoric rapidly fueled market rate hike expectations, shifting the focus from a \"no landing\" to a \"hard landing.\"</b>。 The bond market doubled its bets on a U.S. economic recession, with the inversion between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 100 basis points for the first time since 1981.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In its latest report, Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that the forecast for peak interest rates has been raised.</p><p>Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve chooses a rate hike of 25 basis points or 50 basis points,<b>The median forecast for peak interest rates in the March economic forecast summary is expected to reach 5.5%-5.75%.</b>Goldman Sachs also predicts that the data ahead of the March meeting will be mixed. Although the number of job openings in the United States declined in January, it expects the core CPI to rise by 0.45% month-on-month in February, a rebound from the previous value of 0.4%. Therefore, Goldman Sachs</p><p>Our forecast for a 25 basis point rate hike in March is uncertain, and there is a risk of a 50 basis point FOMC rate hike.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63ad6d149dc7d2caabace61c93649d4b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683645","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2318230395","content_text":"在经济学家Steven Blitz看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。在美国经济步入衰退之前，美联储不会停止加息。周三，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz在接受媒体采访时表示，除非鲍威尔制造一场衰退，失业率开始上升，美联储才会停止加息。Blitz强调，在经济没有衰退的情况下，美联储无法估计其利率上限。Blitz指出：他们不知道最高利率在哪里，因为他们不知道在没有衰退的情况下通胀会在哪里稳定下来。在我看来，美联储要想用衰退打败通胀，至少得使失业率升至4.5%，最高可能达到5.5%。鲍威尔在周二的国会听证会中指出，最近的经济数据强于预期，这表明最终的利率水平可能会高于之前的预期。这一鹰派论调令市场加息预期快速升温，从经济“不着陆”的论调跳到“硬着陆”。债市加倍下注美国经济衰退，2年期和10年期美债收益率之间的倒挂幅度，自1981年以来首次超过了100基点。高盛则在最新报告中上调了利率峰值预期，高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius指出：无论美联储会是选择加息25个基点还是50个基点，预计3月份经济预测摘要中对利率峰值的预测中值将达到5.5%-5.75%。高盛还预计，3月会议前的数据喜忧参半，1月份美国职位空缺数虽有所下降，但预计2月核心CPI环比涨幅为0.45%，较前值0.4%有所反弹。因此高盛指出：我们对于3月加息25个基点的预测很悬，存在美联储FOMC加息50个基点的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".DJI":1,"SH":0.6,"OEX":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPY":1,"QLD":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DJX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949315960,"gmtCreate":1678362632250,"gmtModify":1678362636020,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949315960","repostId":"1146888656","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902177,"gmtCreate":1678280334399,"gmtModify":1678280336504,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902177","repostId":"1137703062","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137703062","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1678275432,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137703062?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 19:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Why is the Federal Reserve once again becoming key to A-shares? Can the Chinese market develop an independent trend?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137703062","media":"陈果A股策略","summary":"国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Chen Guo, Xia Fanjie, CITIC Securities</p><p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Key points:</b></li></ul><b>This article explores the ways in which the Federal Reserve influences A-shares, starting from the increasingly strong correlation between A-shares and US stocks. The paper analyzes four reasons why overseas liquidity has a greater impact on A-shares than domestic liquidity at certain stages. The article concludes by pointing out that the market environment in the coming months may see US Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upwards, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. For A-shares, the peak of rate hike risk has passed, and rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. Future Chinese economic recovery will be key to launching an independent market rally.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Behind the increased correlation between A-shares and US stocks</b></li></ul>Analysis of the correlation between weekly price fluctuations in the Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that Sino-US linkage has strengthened since 2019. Behind the increased correlation between A-shares and US stocks, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cannot be ignored. It mainly affects A-shares through two ways: first, it directly affects A-share valuations through the rise and fall of US stocks; and second, it triggers fluctuations in the A-share market through capital flows.</p><p><ul><li><b>Which is more affected by domestic or overseas liquidity in the A-share market?</b></li></ul>Logically, internal factors have a greater impact than external factors. In fact, changes in US interest rates have a very significant impact on A-shares at certain stages. For example, the impact of US Treasury yields on Kweichow Moutai's stock price before and after its rise, and the correlation between the the US Dollar Index and the CSI 300 index.</p><p><ul><li><b>Why are A-shares so heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve?</b></li></ul>The impact of external factors has been particularly pronounced recently for four reasons: (Since 2017) the internationalization of A-shares has increased significantly in recent years; (Since 2019) China has implemented precise domestic regulations, while the United States has launched a large-scale (In the past two months) China is still in the observation period, and expectations in the United States have changed; (Transmission mechanism) Domestically, it mainly affects fixed-income assets, while the United States affects global asset pricing.</p><p><ul><li><b>How will the Federal Reserve affect A-shares this year?</b></li></ul>\"Dovish expectations + a weak dollar environment\" are most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to extend the duration and seek elasticity. The source of elasticity can come from the post-pandemic recovery, or more commonly, from technology growth stocks. Amid \"hawkish expectations and a strong dollar environment,\" market valuations have fallen, with funds flowing into undervalued, high-Dividend stocks to seek safe havens and cash flow. Cyclical and stable stocks such as coal and utilities have benefited the most.</p><p>The market environment in the coming months is likely to see US Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upwards, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. The European Central Bank's rate hike may exceed expectations, but the ECB's impact on A-shares is relatively limited. For A-shares, the peak of rate hike risk has passed, and rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. Future Chinese economic recovery will be key to launching an independent market rally.</p><p><ul><li><b>Risk Warning</b></li></ul>The Federal Reserve's tightening exceeded expectations, European inflation exceeded expectations, and China's economic recovery was slower than expected.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>In the past two months, the Federal Reserve has revised its rate hike expectations, and the performance of A-shares and US stocks is becoming increasingly similar. This article explores the ways in which the Federal Reserve influences A-shares by analyzing the correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets. Logically speaking, the Chinese economy determines the profit growth of A-share companies, and the People's Bank of China determines the flow of the A-share market. But why does overseas liquidity have a greater impact on A-shares than domestic liquidity at certain stages?</p><p>We answered the question of \"why the Federal Reserve has become key to A-shares again\" by interpreting it from four aspects. At the end of the article, we conduct a review on the performance of A-shares in two market environments: \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar\" and \"dovish expectations + weak dollar\". It is pointed out that A-shares will still face high inflationary pressures in the coming period, as well as opportunities for independent market trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c340c4caebe5c020eacc03de97ef9\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>I. Behind the increased correlation between A-shares and US stocks</b></p><p><b>Are the trends of A-shares and US stocks becoming increasingly similar?</b></p><p>In recent conversations with institutional investors, a common feeling is that the trends of A-shares and US stocks are becoming increasingly similar. This characteristic has gradually become clear since the second half of 2019, and has been particularly evident in the last two months. This is particularly evident in the ChiNext and Nasdaq indices, representative indices of technology growth, as well as the classic indices CSI 300 and S&P 500: market performance and upward and downward trends are mostly similar. In light of this, A-share investors are paying increasing attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends, the US Dollar Index fluctuations, and the performance of US stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe583ce2aeed214085e5c6e359fb407\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f0efe6229f3f8ab59e6ca602ec50e7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Analysis of the correlation between weekly price fluctuations in the Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that Sino-US linkage has strengthened since 2019. Statistical results show that from the opening of the ChiNext board in 2010 to the end of 2018, the correlation coefficients of the weekly price changes of the ChiNext Index-Nasdaq Index, the CSI 300-S&P 500 Index, and the SSE 50-Dow Jones Index were 0.172, 0.275, and 0.172, respectively, with neither of the three groups being correlated. Since 2019, the correlations between the weekly changes in the three groups of indices have been 0.543, 0.903, and 0.895, respectively, which are moderately correlated, highly correlated, and highly correlated. All of the above tests were significant at the 1% level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb64c1b68b3befa5158694492a26b8a\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73efc5d08f1a82fd37f957d76a59b2b3\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>How does the Federal Reserve's monetary policy affect A-shares?</b></p><p>key factor behind the increased correlation between A-shares and US stocks is that the US Treasury Bond yield, as an anchor for global pricing, also acts on the stock markets of both China and the US, leading to a correlation between the two markets. As the internationalization of A-shares increases, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments are having an increasingly greater impact on A-shares and are gradually becoming a key policy that A-share investors cannot ignore.</p><p>There are two main ways in which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is transmitted to A-shares:</p><p>Firstly, the rise and fall of US stocks directly affects the valuation of A-shares. This is because the developed capital market and high-tech industry of the US stock market have led to many leading technology companies in the US stock market becoming the valuation benchmark for growth stocks in this field globally. The stock price fluctuations of Nasdaq or related technology leaders will have a direct impact on the valuation of ChiNext or related technology industries. In addition, fluctuations in US stocks can also be transmitted to A-shares through the influence of market sentiment, with US stocks - Chinese concept stocks - Hong Kong stocks - A-shares being a common transmission channel.</p><p>Secondly, fluctuations in the A-share market can be triggered by capital flows. Adjustments to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and differences in the fundamentals of the Chinese and American economies can trigger the appreciation/depreciation of the US dollar. This will then transform into pressure on the appreciation/depreciation of the RMB and net inflows/outflows of northbound capital, ultimately affecting the A-share market through exchange rate fluctuations and foreign capital inflows and outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd97493d7ecdcff9ba19a18621b3b79e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>II. Domestic and overseas liquidity: which is more affected by the A-share market?</b></p><p><b>Logically, internal factors influence more than external factors.</b></p><p>The increasing influence of overseas factors has also attracted widespread attention from investors. A hot topic is: which is more affected by changes in liquidity/fundamentals in China and overseas, the A-share market?</p><p>Logically, the answer to this question is obvious: the influence of internal factors is greater than that of external factors. This is because the profitability of A-share companies depends on the Chinese economy itself, and their liquidity also depends on domestic liquidity. External factors can only be transmitted to A-shares through the two aforementioned channels: valuation changes (benchmark valuation, sentiment transmission) and capital flows (exchange rate fluctuations and northbound capital), producing an indirect impact.</p><p>As a major economic power, China's economic cycle changes and monetary policy adjustments are independent, so the direction of influence of internal and external factors may not be the same. Logically speaking, A-shares should be more affected by internal factors.</p><p><b>In fact, changes in US interest rates have a very significant impact on A-shares at certain stages.</b></p><p>However, in practice, investors have found that the impact of US interest rate changes/the US Dollar Index fluctuations on A-shares is very significant at certain stages. A typical example is liquor stocks, represented by Kweichow Moutai, which are favored by long-term funds, represented by foreign capital, due to their stable profitability. This caused Kweichow Moutai's valuation to soar from 30 times to more than 70 times in early 2021 in 2020, when the Federal Reserve had zero interest rates and global liquidity was flooded.</p><p>With the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus plan introduced in January and February 2021, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's earlier \"massive easing,\" US Treasury Bond yields began to rise sharply. \"Long-term, high-valuation\" assets such as Kweichow Moutai were the first to be hit, with their valuation centers shifting significantly downwards. Kweichow Moutai's valuation eventually returned to a relatively reasonable level around 40 times. The stock price also fluctuated significantly without any abnormal changes in the company's profitability. The impact of overseas factors on A-shares is evident.</p><p>the US Dollar Index is another overseas indicator that influences the trend of A-shares. Since 2020, the trend of the CSI 300 Index has shown a significant negative correlation with the fluctuation of the the US Dollar Index. That is, from March 2020 to January 2021, when the the US Dollar Index weakened, the CSI 300 performed strongly, and from February 2021 to October 2022, when the US dollar strengthened, the CSI 300 performed weakly. The two trends are clearly related.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c7fa1f518fafa607c08684f38ea32\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6677ec31c4ae9d4b3b79eca3bcbab31\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>III. Why are A-shares so greatly influenced by the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p><b>The internationalization of A-shares has increased significantly in recent years.</b></p><p><b>Investors in A-shares increasingly need to pay attention to overseas factors, especially the actions of the Federal Reserve. This phenomenon has become particularly evident after 2017. A key reason is that in recent years, with the significant increase in the internationalization of A-shares, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased. Moreover, due to the concentrated nature of foreign shareholding, they have high pricing power over some blue-chip companies.</b></p><p>First, with the increasing internationalization of A-shares in recent years, especially after international indices such as MSCI have expanded their inclusion of A-shares multiple times, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased. According to our statistics, as of December last year, foreign institutions and individuals held nearly 3.2 trillion yuan in A-shares, accounting for 3.65% of the total market capitalization of A-shares. Since 2019, foreign ownership has remained at a relatively high level of over 2.5%, and the linkage between the Chinese and American stock markets is becoming increasingly close.</p><p>Secondly, the proportion of foreign capital transactions has also increased significantly in recent years. Although the market capitalization of foreign shares is only slightly over 4% at its peak, a large amount of share capital in A-shares is not circulated, so foreign influence accounts for a higher proportion of the market capitalization. In terms of the proportion of transaction volume, only statistics on the proportion of northbound capital transaction volume in the total A-share market each month show that the proportion has also increased significantly since 2019, and has been basically between 5% and 6% in the past two years, even reaching a high of 7.2% in February 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864609b7038781d4e1984cd1933c99f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d6d78ca622310c6a3fc47c4d7efbf6\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, foreign shareholding is limited by the Stock Connect channel and its strategic requirements, resulting in more concentrated shareholding in blue-chip stocks than in blue-chip stocks. This further enhances the bargaining power of foreign capital in some industries and companies. Our statistics show that 23 stocks currently have foreign ownership accounting for more than 30% of their free-float market capitalization, and 21 stocks have foreign ownership accounting for more than 20% of their free-float market capitalization. These stocks with significant foreign influence are mostly concentrated in the financial, manufacturing, and consumer sectors such as banking, home appliances, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a350d0438f743d48ba8a1a630e2a5253\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>With precise domestic regulation, the United States is opening up aggressively.</b></p><p><b>Another reason for the Federal Reserve's enormous influence lies in the drastically different styles of monetary policy adopted by the central banks of China and the United States. The People's Bank of China tends to maintain precise regulation, and monetary policy changes are not drastic. Compared to the large-scale and open monetary policy of the United States, China focuses more on precise guidance and direct access to the real economy.</b></p><p>The differences in adjustments to policy interest rates by the central banks of China and the United States since the second half of 2019 clearly illustrate the differences in monetary policy styles between the two countries. The People's Bank of China adjusts its policy interest rate relatively infrequently, with each adjustment being small, mostly by 5 basis points, 10 basis points, or 15 basis points. The main tone of \"prudent\" has remained unchanged. However, in terms of specific wording, there are differences between \"prudent monetary policy is flexible, precise, reasonable, and appropriate\" and \"prudent monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve has adjusted its target federal funds rate as many as 13 times. It went through a slow rate cut in 2019, a sharp drop to zero after the pandemic in 2020, and a three-phase rate hike starting in 2022, with adjustments of mostly 25 basis points, 50 basis points, or 75 basis points, and even a significant reduction of 100 basis points.</p><p>In terms of policy statements, from \"one interest rate cut is not enough to solve all problems\" after the pandemic, to \"temporary inflation theory\" and \"slowing the pace of net asset purchases\" in 2021, and then to \"firmly committing to a 2% inflation target and continuing significant rate hike\" in 2022, the Federal Reserve's policy statements are very clear and closely monitor key data indicators such as non-farm payrolls and inflation. With a clear direction and significant efforts, coupled with the enormous influence of the US economy, the Federal Reserve's decisions influence global financial markets.</p><p><b>For the A-share market, different policy styles have different marginal impacts. While the People's Bank of China's policies are more direct and important, they have fewer changes and less marginal impact, while the Federal Reserve's actions are frequent and have a huge impact, thus attracting more attention from investors.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8a2cfc0ac9faddbd5243027cdb7da3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The domestic situation is still under observation, while expectations in the United States</b></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has become increasingly similar to that of the US stock market. Perhaps the reason behind this is that domestic monetary policy is still under observation, while US inflation and rate hike expectations have changed significantly, leading to a marginal increase in overseas influence.</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, the domestic epidemic quickly passed its peak and the economy entered a \"normal\" state. However, due to the base disturbance caused by the Spring Festival and the epidemic, there are still significant differences in the market regarding the current state of economic recovery, and monetary policy has entered an observation period. According to the \"2022 Q4 Monetary Policy Implementation Report\" released by the People's Bank of China on February 24, the previous statement of \"increasing the implementation of a prudent monetary policy\" was revised to \"a prudent monetary policy must be precise and effective,\" and the \"guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around the policy interest rate\" in the 2022 Q1 Monetary Policy Implementation Report was mentioned again.</p><p>This means that the central bank's assessment of the macroeconomy is becoming more positive, and monetary policy is beginning to normalize. In the near future, the market is unlikely to expect further reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. However, now that the central bank has returned to the policy interest rate, it is unlikely that the central bank will continue to tighten monetary policy. The central bank is expected to take further action after a period of observation.</p><p>However, U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations have shifted significantly since February. The market had previously widely expected inflation to fall, and the Federal Reserve might conduct its final rate hike in March before halting rate hike as recession expectations rose. However, this expectation was too optimistic about a decline in inflation. With the release of strong US non-farm payrolls and inflation data, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would stop rate hike in the future was reversed. The subsequent impact included the rise in US Treasury Bond yields again, with the 10-year and 30-year yields breaking through 4.0% one after another, and the the US Dollar Index also starting to stop falling and rebound in February, with a maximum increase of 4.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12a0fee59fa8da4debf77305ea5b8\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Recent statements by Federal Reserve officials also indicate that their attitude has clearly shifted to hawkish. His main comments revolved around excessively high inflation levels, tight labor market supply, and hinted at a possible 50 basis point rate hike in March. Changes in expectations may further affect the RMB exchange rate and the trend of A-shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a864c8f7a610a412d8a99637364a772f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"1249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cfb2a7197a2e84d554ee6eacfdebc8\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"1337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On Tuesday, March 7, Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee, warning that strong data from the beginning of the year could prompt the Fed to stop slowing down and instead accelerate its rate hike, with interest rates potentially exceeding the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The market reacted quickly, with US Treasury Bond yields surging across the board and the US Dollar Index rising sharply. How do we interpret this?</p><p><b>1) We are currently in a period of shifting expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments pay close attention to changes in data.</b>Following Powell's speech, the probability of a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in March and the expectation of a final interest rate peak were significantly raised. We believe that the peak of future policy interest rates is still unpredictable because the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments pay close attention to data changes. In the future, we need to look for evidence of easing inflation and the matching of labor supply and demand from directions such as CPI, PCE, core services excluding housing, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rates. The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy rate hike is expected to slow down at that time. In the short term, whether rate hike will reach 50 basis points in March, as well as February's CPI and non-farm payroll data, should be observed.</p><p><b>2) Adhere to the 2% inflation target, and the high interest rate environment will last for a long time.</b>Powell specifically emphasized that \"maintaining the credibility of the Fed's 2% inflation target will directly stabilize market expectations for the economic outlook. Therefore, sticking to the 2% target is indeed very important. We will not consider changing the Fed's 2% inflation control target.\" Previously, the market tended to ignore the 2% inflation target and overestimated the \"dovish\" shift brought about by expectations of a US economic recession. The special emphasis on adhering to the 2% inflation target indicates that the high-interest-rate environment will persist for a long time.</p><p><b>3) Currently, domestic monetary policy is still under observation, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments on A-shares is intensifying.</b>Given that the post-pandemic recovery of the domestic economy remains to be seen, it is unlikely that reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, or policy tightening will occur in the near future. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments have a significant impact on A-shares, and stocks with long durations, high valuations, and poor performance should be avoided in the short term. This impact is expected to dissipate in the event of easing US inflation-economic recession or a strong recovery in the Chinese economy, at which time the market is expected to build a new theme around US recession trading or China recovery trading.</p><p><b>The domestic market primarily affects fixed-income assets, while the United States influences global</b></p><p><b>One of the core reasons why the Federal Reserve has greater influence is the different mechanisms by which liquidity is transmitted to the equity market in China and the United States. Essentially, the transmission channels for China's macro liquidity to the A-share market are not smooth, and the central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets. The United States has a developed financial market and free and smooth capital flows, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct and profound impact on financial markets around the world.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the transmission channels of China's macro liquidity to the A-share market are not smooth, and there is often a disconnect between the micro and macro liquidity of the A-share market. The central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets, and its impact on A-share pricing is indirect and limited.</p><p>According to the statistics of the People's Bank of China's \"2019 Survey on the Assets and Liabilities of Urban Households in China\", bank savings and fixed-income products such as wealth management, time deposits, and cash account for the vast majority of residents' financial assets, while equity assets such as stocks and funds account for less than 10% (of which funds are also mainly fixed-income). It is evident that equity accounts for a very low proportion of Chinese residents' financial assets, and the impact of monetary policy on macro liquidity mainly affects the bond market, while its impact on A-shares is limited.</p><p>A typical example is that after April last year, the surplus liquidity represented by M2-social financing climbed sharply to a historically high level, but this did not bring about a significant improvement in the micro-liquidity of A-shares. In the second half of last year, the issuance of new funds remained sluggish for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00410d4f25f426eee028e3d1d8af8c4a\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9e69343d69e7a7ad6b24dcaee94d18\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the other hand, the United States has a developed financial market and free and smooth capital flows, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct and profound impact on various financial markets around the world. Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented a quantitative easing monetary policy for a long time, resulting in a large influx of zero-cost or even negative-cost funds into the stock market. Technology stocks were highly sought after, while a large amount of funds also flowed into emerging market stock markets for diversified allocation. As a result, global stock markets, especially US technology stocks and emerging market stock markets, are particularly sensitive to changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b970bd8672657354dcfab9f6312b094\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>IV. How will the Federal Reserve affect A-shares this year?</b></p><p><b>A-share performance amid hawkish expectations and a strong dollar</b></p><p>Since 2021, changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have had the most significant impact on the market, forming two opposite market environments: \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\" and \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\". Using rising 10-year US Treasury yields and strengthening the US Dollar Index as standards, we can obtain three typical periods of \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\": January 6-March 31, 2021, August 4-October 11, 2021, and February 3-March 3, 2023. By statistically analyzing the performance of major A-share indices, styles, and industries during these three periods, we can obtain the characteristics of A-share performance in this environment:</p><p>1) The dividend index stands out among major indices, maintaining positive returns in all three periods. Large-cap value stocks (Shanghai Composite Index) and small-cap growth stocks (CSI 2000), whose valuations are not too high, have seen relatively small declines in the recent period, while large-cap growth stocks such as the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 have fallen sharply due to overvaluations amid hawkish expectations and a strong dollar.</p><p>2) In terms of style, stable styles perform the best, maintaining positive returns in all three periods. The cyclical performance is also relatively good. Growth and consumption performed the worst. It is evident that under hawkish expectations, long-term assets are very unfavorable, while short-term assets are relatively beneficial.</p><p>3) In terms of industry, undervalued, high-Dividend, and short-duration sectors such as coal, utilities, building decoration, and transportation performed best, while overvalued, high-growth, and long-duration sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computers performed worst.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b013b9bc97831286c2696aeafb844360\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d436b7f079e8bb01ee8c7325c279636c\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A-share performance in a dovish expectation and weak dollar environment</b></p><p>Similarly, using rising 10-year US Treasury yields and strengthening the US Dollar Index as standards, two typical periods of \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\" can be obtained, namely April 1-June 1, 2021, and November 4, 2022-February 2, 2023. By statistically analyzing the performance of major A-share indices, styles, and industries during these two periods, we can obtain the characteristics of A-share performance in this environment:</p><p>1) All major indices achieved positive returns, with the ChiNext index performing the best. Large-cap blue-chip indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 also rose significantly, while small-cap stocks performed relatively weakly. The dividend index was the smallest, but it still achieved a cumulative increase of 13.9%.</p><p>2) In terms of style, consumer style performed best, mainly benefiting from the recovery expectations brought about by the relaxation of domestic epidemic policies after November last year. Financial, cyclical, and growth styles also performed well, while stable styles performed the worst, which is the opposite of hawkish expectations and a strong dollar environment.</p><p>3) In terms of industries, food and beverage, beauty and care, non-ferrous metals, and media performed the strongest, while public utilities, environmental protection, and defense and military industries performed poorly. It is evident that under the \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\", stable stocks were abandoned by funds due to a lack of elasticity, and investors turned to embrace the most elastic direction. For November last year, the recovery expectations brought about by policy relaxation were the most elastic direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e846c6c8cf2716716bc71f047bfd3bd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68609a05e24994ac269b9c80747fead7\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"921\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>High inflationary pressures remain, limiting upward pressure on the US dollar; the ECB may become a new variable.</b></p><p>Based on the above A-share review, we can draw the following conclusions:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve's policies have had a huge impact on A-shares since 2021, with the A-share market performing in completely opposite ways under two different market environments.</p><p>2) \"Dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\" are most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to extend the duration and seek elasticity. The source of elasticity can come from the post-pandemic recovery, or more commonly, from technology growth stocks.</p><p>3) Under the \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\", market valuations have fallen, and funds have flowed into undervalued and high-Dividend stocks to seek safe havens and cash flow. Cyclical and stable stocks such as coal and utilities have benefited the most.</p><p>So, what kind of market environment will we face in the future? We believe that,<b>Currently, high global inflationary pressures remain. With the Federal Reserve expected to continue its rate hike, US Treasury Bond yields may rise further. However, compared to the United States, the inflation and rate hike situation in the Eurozone is more severe. The European Central Bank's stronger rate hike will boost the euro exchange rate, alleviate the upward pressure on the dollar, and ultimately, the recovery of the Chinese economy is expected to offset some of the pressure on the RMB to depreciate. Therefore, the market environment in the coming months is likely to see US Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upwards, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index.</b></p><p>Inflationary pressures in the United States remain significant. In January, core PCE grew by 4.71% year-on-year, failing to continue the previous downward trend and instead rebounding, exceeding market expectations. The current round of inflation in the United States is a \"compound inflation\" in terms of its causes. It includes factors such as the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE and the US government's aggressive post-pandemic fiscal stimulus, as well as issues with energy investment, supply chain and labor. At the same time, the anti-globalization wave initiated by the Trump administration in 2018 has also disrupted the global supply chain system.</p><p>Judging from the current situation, although energy and supply chain issues have improved significantly in recent months, food and wage inflation remain high. We expect the upward pressure on housing rents, the largest component of inflation, to continue until September this year. This may lead to the US PCE remaining at a relatively high level in the coming months and making it difficult for it to fall significantly.</p><p>It is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely return to a rate hike of 50 basis points in March, and the Federal Funds rate range may rise to 5.5% to 5.75% by July. There is also a significant possibility that it will rise to 5.75% to 6.0%, compared to the current rate hike of 125 basis points. The trend of the benchmark interest rate will eventually be reflected in the US Treasury yields, and historically, the two will eventually reach the same level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc4ac523dcf11044150e1755199783a\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50f787c1d5645abba12d7799b972381\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the Eurozone is currently facing a more severe inflationary adjustment, which means the ECB's \"higher and longer\" rate hike. The core harmonized CPI rebounded better than expected in February, with a preliminary year-on-year estimate of 5.6% compared to the expected 5.3%. The market generally expects the ECB to accumulate 100 basis points of rate hike in March and May, with interest rates peaking at around 4.1%.</p><p>Robert Holzmann, Governing Council Member of the European Central Bank and Governor of the Austrian Central Bank, recently made a hawkish statement in an interview with Bloomberg:<b>I believe core inflation will not weaken significantly in the first half of this year and will remain near current levels. Under these circumstances, I expect us to have four more rate hike this year, with rate hike gaining 0.5 percentage points. Even so, our deposit interest rate is only 4%. Only there will we roughly enter the restricted area.</b>。”</p><p>According to Robert Holzmann's rate hike path, the European Central Bank's deposit facility interest rate will rise from the current 2.5% to 4.5%, far exceeding the peak of 4% currently expected by the market. This is also an interest rate level that no other European Central Bank official has publicly proposed to date.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed02969720a2c06b52572e75fb354b0\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bf286d5a9a6324659f1d0ad9f9b328\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Looking at the history since the birth of the euro, there has never been a situation where inflation in the Eurozone has significantly exceeded that in the United States. Therefore, it is difficult for us to gain historical experience in a situation where the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have rate hike at the same time, European rate hike are higher, and the US Dollar Index is flat. Therefore, we will only analyze from a logical perspective: the previous article has already proven that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a significant influence on A-shares at certain stages. From the perspective of transmission channels, the influence of the European Central Bank can be seen as a weakened version of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On the one hand, the European Central Bank's significant rate hike and potential monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan will raise global monetary costs, which will lead to continued capital outflows from emerging markets (or at least difficulty in inflows). At the same time, technology growth stocks will be under pressure, while stable cycle stocks will be strong. On the other hand, European stock markets are more value-oriented than US stocks due to their technology growth style, and they do not have benchmark valuation significance. The ability to drive A-shares down through risk appetite and sentiment is limited.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c54a00e7982414a9de69622e4fe3ee\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f33fa50ade7bdce2f52b18976fdca7\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The key to A-shares' independent rally lies in whether their own fundamentals can strengthen.</b></p><p><b>A firm belief in rate hike is not a bad thing; the greatest risk has passed.</b></p><p>For the market, the central bank's firm stance on rate hike against the backdrop of high inflation is not a bad thing, while rate hike hesitation leading to runaway inflation has a greater negative impact on the market. Looking at the market over the past two years, when inflation was high but the Federal Reserve's rate hike was not firm (November 2021 - June 2022), US stocks fell the most. However, when the Federal Reserve firmly and significantly rate hike (since June 2022), US stocks stopped the downward trend and market volatility decreased. The valuation-killing risks brought about by rate hike have already become fully apparent. If the United States enters a recession in the future, it may lead to the final decline in US stocks due to the \"earnings-killing\" situation. However, the biggest impact on the A-share market has passed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5b1ddee48677914bc382d74f3b31d2\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Despite short-term high global inflationary pressures, US Treasury yields are still rising, which will suppress the performance of stocks with long durations, high valuations, and poor performance.<b>This does not mean that the A-share market cannot start an independent rally, nor does it mean that the growth style of A-shares has weakened across the board. Historically, A-shares have repeatedly experienced independent rallies against the backdrop of rising US Treasury yields, and growth stocks have even performed well during this period. The key lies in the fact that China's economic fundamentals are significantly better than those of the United States, which helps to break down the Sino-US linkage and offset interest rate pressure from the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Several periods when US Treasury yields rose but A-shares emerged from independent trends or growth stocks relatively outperformed include:</p><p>1) From December 2008 to June 2009, after reaching four trillion yuan, China's economy led the world in rapid recovery.</p><p>2) From May to December 2013, while the Federal Reserve was creating a Taper panic, China also experienced a \"cash crunch,\" which did not hinder the surge in small and medium-sized enterprises and growth enterprises.</p><p>3) From February to June 2015, China's economy stabilized, while the US economy declined sharply in the first quarter, causing market rate hike expectations to fail.</p><p>4) From September 2020 to January 2021, China's economy was the first to recover after the pandemic, and the US economy followed suit with a significant rebound.</p><p>5) From May to June 2022, China's economy recovered after the impact of the pandemic, and the United States implemented a significant rate hike to cope with inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d721fb20166b17f234f3fc2b9b19a3cc\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>We expect the Chinese economy to bottom out and recover in the first half of the year.</b>Based on our tracking of the economic inventory cycle, my country entered the active destocking phase in April last year. Based on the historical average of 11 months of active destocking cycle and the PPI, which is expected to bottom out in April this year, we expect the active destocking phase to end in March-May this year and enter the passive destocking phase. Meanwhile, consumer spending is expected to recover further after pandemic policies are relaxed and income expectations stabilize.</p><p><b>China's economy is expected to shift from a previous \"return to normal\" to a genuine \"recovery\".</b>If a macroeconomic fundamental combination of \"strong Chinese economy + weak US economy\" can be formed in the second half of this year, A-shares are expected to break through the constraints of the Federal Reserve and embark on an independent rally.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d71d77910905faf15f45306426adf2cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p>(1) The tightening degree of the Federal Reserve overseas exceeded expectations. If the US economy continues to resilient, with strong economic data such as the labor market and retail sales, then the risk of a US recession may face reassessment, while the risk of inflation will also face a rebound. The Federal Reserve will continue its tightening efforts to combat inflation, and global liquidity easing will fall short of expectations, inevitably putting pressure on the domestic equity market denominator.</p><p>(2) The severity of inflation in Europe exceeded expectations. If European inflation continues to rise higher than expected, the European Central Bank will be forced to rate hike significantly multiple times, which will lead to further increases in global interest rates and even prompt the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy. Global markets may move away from a low-interest-rate investment environment, and long-term assets face significant risks.</p><p>(3) The domestic economic recovery or the implementation of policies to stabilize growth have not been as effective as expected. If domestic real estate sales and investment data are slow to recover, the long-accumulated debt repayment risks of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are about to ferment, and the post-pandemic economic recovery is ultimately falsified, then the overall market trend will be under pressure, and overly optimistic pricing expectations will have to be revised.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"chagcl","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why is the Federal Reserve once again becoming key to A-shares? Can the Chinese market develop an independent trend?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy is the Federal Reserve once again becoming key to A-shares? Can the Chinese market develop an independent trend?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">陈果A股策略</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-08 19:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Chen Guo, Xia Fanjie, CITIC Securities</p><p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Key points:</b></li></ul><b>This article explores the ways in which the Federal Reserve influences A-shares, starting from the increasingly strong correlation between A-shares and US stocks. The paper analyzes four reasons why overseas liquidity has a greater impact on A-shares than domestic liquidity at certain stages. The article concludes by pointing out that the market environment in the coming months may see US Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upwards, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. For A-shares, the peak of rate hike risk has passed, and rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. Future Chinese economic recovery will be key to launching an independent market rally.</b></p><p><ul><li><b>Behind the increased correlation between A-shares and US stocks</b></li></ul>Analysis of the correlation between weekly price fluctuations in the Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that Sino-US linkage has strengthened since 2019. Behind the increased correlation between A-shares and US stocks, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cannot be ignored. It mainly affects A-shares through two ways: first, it directly affects A-share valuations through the rise and fall of US stocks; and second, it triggers fluctuations in the A-share market through capital flows.</p><p><ul><li><b>Which is more affected by domestic or overseas liquidity in the A-share market?</b></li></ul>Logically, internal factors have a greater impact than external factors. In fact, changes in US interest rates have a very significant impact on A-shares at certain stages. For example, the impact of US Treasury yields on Kweichow Moutai's stock price before and after its rise, and the correlation between the the US Dollar Index and the CSI 300 index.</p><p><ul><li><b>Why are A-shares so heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve?</b></li></ul>The impact of external factors has been particularly pronounced recently for four reasons: (Since 2017) the internationalization of A-shares has increased significantly in recent years; (Since 2019) China has implemented precise domestic regulations, while the United States has launched a large-scale (In the past two months) China is still in the observation period, and expectations in the United States have changed; (Transmission mechanism) Domestically, it mainly affects fixed-income assets, while the United States affects global asset pricing.</p><p><ul><li><b>How will the Federal Reserve affect A-shares this year?</b></li></ul>\"Dovish expectations + a weak dollar environment\" are most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to extend the duration and seek elasticity. The source of elasticity can come from the post-pandemic recovery, or more commonly, from technology growth stocks. Amid \"hawkish expectations and a strong dollar environment,\" market valuations have fallen, with funds flowing into undervalued, high-Dividend stocks to seek safe havens and cash flow. Cyclical and stable stocks such as coal and utilities have benefited the most.</p><p>The market environment in the coming months is likely to see US Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upwards, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index. The European Central Bank's rate hike may exceed expectations, but the ECB's impact on A-shares is relatively limited. For A-shares, the peak of rate hike risk has passed, and rising short-term interest rates may suppress long-term assets. Future Chinese economic recovery will be key to launching an independent market rally.</p><p><ul><li><b>Risk Warning</b></li></ul>The Federal Reserve's tightening exceeded expectations, European inflation exceeded expectations, and China's economic recovery was slower than expected.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>In the past two months, the Federal Reserve has revised its rate hike expectations, and the performance of A-shares and US stocks is becoming increasingly similar. This article explores the ways in which the Federal Reserve influences A-shares by analyzing the correlation between the Chinese and American stock markets. Logically speaking, the Chinese economy determines the profit growth of A-share companies, and the People's Bank of China determines the flow of the A-share market. But why does overseas liquidity have a greater impact on A-shares than domestic liquidity at certain stages?</p><p>We answered the question of \"why the Federal Reserve has become key to A-shares again\" by interpreting it from four aspects. At the end of the article, we conduct a review on the performance of A-shares in two market environments: \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar\" and \"dovish expectations + weak dollar\". It is pointed out that A-shares will still face high inflationary pressures in the coming period, as well as opportunities for independent market trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b3c340c4caebe5c020eacc03de97ef9\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>I. Behind the increased correlation between A-shares and US stocks</b></p><p><b>Are the trends of A-shares and US stocks becoming increasingly similar?</b></p><p>In recent conversations with institutional investors, a common feeling is that the trends of A-shares and US stocks are becoming increasingly similar. This characteristic has gradually become clear since the second half of 2019, and has been particularly evident in the last two months. This is particularly evident in the ChiNext and Nasdaq indices, representative indices of technology growth, as well as the classic indices CSI 300 and S&P 500: market performance and upward and downward trends are mostly similar. In light of this, A-share investors are paying increasing attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trends, the US Dollar Index fluctuations, and the performance of US stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebe583ce2aeed214085e5c6e359fb407\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f0efe6229f3f8ab59e6ca602ec50e7c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"224\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Analysis of the correlation between weekly price fluctuations in the Chinese and American stock markets confirms the judgment that Sino-US linkage has strengthened since 2019. Statistical results show that from the opening of the ChiNext board in 2010 to the end of 2018, the correlation coefficients of the weekly price changes of the ChiNext Index-Nasdaq Index, the CSI 300-S&P 500 Index, and the SSE 50-Dow Jones Index were 0.172, 0.275, and 0.172, respectively, with neither of the three groups being correlated. Since 2019, the correlations between the weekly changes in the three groups of indices have been 0.543, 0.903, and 0.895, respectively, which are moderately correlated, highly correlated, and highly correlated. All of the above tests were significant at the 1% level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb64c1b68b3befa5158694492a26b8a\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73efc5d08f1a82fd37f957d76a59b2b3\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"256\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>How does the Federal Reserve's monetary policy affect A-shares?</b></p><p>key factor behind the increased correlation between A-shares and US stocks is that the US Treasury Bond yield, as an anchor for global pricing, also acts on the stock markets of both China and the US, leading to a correlation between the two markets. As the internationalization of A-shares increases, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments are having an increasingly greater impact on A-shares and are gradually becoming a key policy that A-share investors cannot ignore.</p><p>There are two main ways in which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is transmitted to A-shares:</p><p>Firstly, the rise and fall of US stocks directly affects the valuation of A-shares. This is because the developed capital market and high-tech industry of the US stock market have led to many leading technology companies in the US stock market becoming the valuation benchmark for growth stocks in this field globally. The stock price fluctuations of Nasdaq or related technology leaders will have a direct impact on the valuation of ChiNext or related technology industries. In addition, fluctuations in US stocks can also be transmitted to A-shares through the influence of market sentiment, with US stocks - Chinese concept stocks - Hong Kong stocks - A-shares being a common transmission channel.</p><p>Secondly, fluctuations in the A-share market can be triggered by capital flows. Adjustments to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and differences in the fundamentals of the Chinese and American economies can trigger the appreciation/depreciation of the US dollar. This will then transform into pressure on the appreciation/depreciation of the RMB and net inflows/outflows of northbound capital, ultimately affecting the A-share market through exchange rate fluctuations and foreign capital inflows and outflows.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd97493d7ecdcff9ba19a18621b3b79e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>II. Domestic and overseas liquidity: which is more affected by the A-share market?</b></p><p><b>Logically, internal factors influence more than external factors.</b></p><p>The increasing influence of overseas factors has also attracted widespread attention from investors. A hot topic is: which is more affected by changes in liquidity/fundamentals in China and overseas, the A-share market?</p><p>Logically, the answer to this question is obvious: the influence of internal factors is greater than that of external factors. This is because the profitability of A-share companies depends on the Chinese economy itself, and their liquidity also depends on domestic liquidity. External factors can only be transmitted to A-shares through the two aforementioned channels: valuation changes (benchmark valuation, sentiment transmission) and capital flows (exchange rate fluctuations and northbound capital), producing an indirect impact.</p><p>As a major economic power, China's economic cycle changes and monetary policy adjustments are independent, so the direction of influence of internal and external factors may not be the same. Logically speaking, A-shares should be more affected by internal factors.</p><p><b>In fact, changes in US interest rates have a very significant impact on A-shares at certain stages.</b></p><p>However, in practice, investors have found that the impact of US interest rate changes/the US Dollar Index fluctuations on A-shares is very significant at certain stages. A typical example is liquor stocks, represented by Kweichow Moutai, which are favored by long-term funds, represented by foreign capital, due to their stable profitability. This caused Kweichow Moutai's valuation to soar from 30 times to more than 70 times in early 2021 in 2020, when the Federal Reserve had zero interest rates and global liquidity was flooded.</p><p>With the Biden administration's excessive fiscal stimulus plan introduced in January and February 2021, coupled with the impact of the Federal Reserve's earlier \"massive easing,\" US Treasury Bond yields began to rise sharply. \"Long-term, high-valuation\" assets such as Kweichow Moutai were the first to be hit, with their valuation centers shifting significantly downwards. Kweichow Moutai's valuation eventually returned to a relatively reasonable level around 40 times. The stock price also fluctuated significantly without any abnormal changes in the company's profitability. The impact of overseas factors on A-shares is evident.</p><p>the US Dollar Index is another overseas indicator that influences the trend of A-shares. Since 2020, the trend of the CSI 300 Index has shown a significant negative correlation with the fluctuation of the the US Dollar Index. That is, from March 2020 to January 2021, when the the US Dollar Index weakened, the CSI 300 performed strongly, and from February 2021 to October 2022, when the US dollar strengthened, the CSI 300 performed weakly. The two trends are clearly related.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4c7fa1f518fafa607c08684f38ea32\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6677ec31c4ae9d4b3b79eca3bcbab31\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>III. Why are A-shares so greatly influenced by the Federal Reserve?</b></p><p><b>The internationalization of A-shares has increased significantly in recent years.</b></p><p><b>Investors in A-shares increasingly need to pay attention to overseas factors, especially the actions of the Federal Reserve. This phenomenon has become particularly evident after 2017. A key reason is that in recent years, with the significant increase in the internationalization of A-shares, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased. Moreover, due to the concentrated nature of foreign shareholding, they have high pricing power over some blue-chip companies.</b></p><p>First, with the increasing internationalization of A-shares in recent years, especially after international indices such as MSCI have expanded their inclusion of A-shares multiple times, the scale of foreign shareholding has gradually increased. According to our statistics, as of December last year, foreign institutions and individuals held nearly 3.2 trillion yuan in A-shares, accounting for 3.65% of the total market capitalization of A-shares. Since 2019, foreign ownership has remained at a relatively high level of over 2.5%, and the linkage between the Chinese and American stock markets is becoming increasingly close.</p><p>Secondly, the proportion of foreign capital transactions has also increased significantly in recent years. Although the market capitalization of foreign shares is only slightly over 4% at its peak, a large amount of share capital in A-shares is not circulated, so foreign influence accounts for a higher proportion of the market capitalization. In terms of the proportion of transaction volume, only statistics on the proportion of northbound capital transaction volume in the total A-share market each month show that the proportion has also increased significantly since 2019, and has been basically between 5% and 6% in the past two years, even reaching a high of 7.2% in February 2021.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/864609b7038781d4e1984cd1933c99f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d6d78ca622310c6a3fc47c4d7efbf6\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finally, foreign shareholding is limited by the Stock Connect channel and its strategic requirements, resulting in more concentrated shareholding in blue-chip stocks than in blue-chip stocks. This further enhances the bargaining power of foreign capital in some industries and companies. Our statistics show that 23 stocks currently have foreign ownership accounting for more than 30% of their free-float market capitalization, and 21 stocks have foreign ownership accounting for more than 20% of their free-float market capitalization. These stocks with significant foreign influence are mostly concentrated in the financial, manufacturing, and consumer sectors such as banking, home appliances, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a350d0438f743d48ba8a1a630e2a5253\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>With precise domestic regulation, the United States is opening up aggressively.</b></p><p><b>Another reason for the Federal Reserve's enormous influence lies in the drastically different styles of monetary policy adopted by the central banks of China and the United States. The People's Bank of China tends to maintain precise regulation, and monetary policy changes are not drastic. Compared to the large-scale and open monetary policy of the United States, China focuses more on precise guidance and direct access to the real economy.</b></p><p>The differences in adjustments to policy interest rates by the central banks of China and the United States since the second half of 2019 clearly illustrate the differences in monetary policy styles between the two countries. The People's Bank of China adjusts its policy interest rate relatively infrequently, with each adjustment being small, mostly by 5 basis points, 10 basis points, or 15 basis points. The main tone of \"prudent\" has remained unchanged. However, in terms of specific wording, there are differences between \"prudent monetary policy is flexible, precise, reasonable, and appropriate\" and \"prudent monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate.\"</p><p>The Federal Reserve has adjusted its target federal funds rate as many as 13 times. It went through a slow rate cut in 2019, a sharp drop to zero after the pandemic in 2020, and a three-phase rate hike starting in 2022, with adjustments of mostly 25 basis points, 50 basis points, or 75 basis points, and even a significant reduction of 100 basis points.</p><p>In terms of policy statements, from \"one interest rate cut is not enough to solve all problems\" after the pandemic, to \"temporary inflation theory\" and \"slowing the pace of net asset purchases\" in 2021, and then to \"firmly committing to a 2% inflation target and continuing significant rate hike\" in 2022, the Federal Reserve's policy statements are very clear and closely monitor key data indicators such as non-farm payrolls and inflation. With a clear direction and significant efforts, coupled with the enormous influence of the US economy, the Federal Reserve's decisions influence global financial markets.</p><p><b>For the A-share market, different policy styles have different marginal impacts. While the People's Bank of China's policies are more direct and important, they have fewer changes and less marginal impact, while the Federal Reserve's actions are frequent and have a huge impact, thus attracting more attention from investors.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8a2cfc0ac9faddbd5243027cdb7da3\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The domestic situation is still under observation, while expectations in the United States</b></p><p><b>Since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has become increasingly similar to that of the US stock market. Perhaps the reason behind this is that domestic monetary policy is still under observation, while US inflation and rate hike expectations have changed significantly, leading to a marginal increase in overseas influence.</b></p><p>At the beginning of the year, the domestic epidemic quickly passed its peak and the economy entered a \"normal\" state. However, due to the base disturbance caused by the Spring Festival and the epidemic, there are still significant differences in the market regarding the current state of economic recovery, and monetary policy has entered an observation period. According to the \"2022 Q4 Monetary Policy Implementation Report\" released by the People's Bank of China on February 24, the previous statement of \"increasing the implementation of a prudent monetary policy\" was revised to \"a prudent monetary policy must be precise and effective,\" and the \"guiding market interest rates to fluctuate around the policy interest rate\" in the 2022 Q1 Monetary Policy Implementation Report was mentioned again.</p><p>This means that the central bank's assessment of the macroeconomy is becoming more positive, and monetary policy is beginning to normalize. In the near future, the market is unlikely to expect further reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. However, now that the central bank has returned to the policy interest rate, it is unlikely that the central bank will continue to tighten monetary policy. The central bank is expected to take further action after a period of observation.</p><p>However, U.S. inflation and rate hike expectations have shifted significantly since February. The market had previously widely expected inflation to fall, and the Federal Reserve might conduct its final rate hike in March before halting rate hike as recession expectations rose. However, this expectation was too optimistic about a decline in inflation. With the release of strong US non-farm payrolls and inflation data, the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would stop rate hike in the future was reversed. The subsequent impact included the rise in US Treasury Bond yields again, with the 10-year and 30-year yields breaking through 4.0% one after another, and the the US Dollar Index also starting to stop falling and rebound in February, with a maximum increase of 4.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e12a0fee59fa8da4debf77305ea5b8\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Recent statements by Federal Reserve officials also indicate that their attitude has clearly shifted to hawkish. His main comments revolved around excessively high inflation levels, tight labor market supply, and hinted at a possible 50 basis point rate hike in March. Changes in expectations may further affect the RMB exchange rate and the trend of A-shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a864c8f7a610a412d8a99637364a772f\" tg-width=\"1076\" tg-height=\"1249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13cfb2a7197a2e84d554ee6eacfdebc8\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"1337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On Tuesday, March 7, Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee, warning that strong data from the beginning of the year could prompt the Fed to stop slowing down and instead accelerate its rate hike, with interest rates potentially exceeding the Fed's previous expectations.</b>The market reacted quickly, with US Treasury Bond yields surging across the board and the US Dollar Index rising sharply. How do we interpret this?</p><p><b>1) We are currently in a period of shifting expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments pay close attention to changes in data.</b>Following Powell's speech, the probability of a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in March and the expectation of a final interest rate peak were significantly raised. We believe that the peak of future policy interest rates is still unpredictable because the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments pay close attention to data changes. In the future, we need to look for evidence of easing inflation and the matching of labor supply and demand from directions such as CPI, PCE, core services excluding housing, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rates. The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy rate hike is expected to slow down at that time. In the short term, whether rate hike will reach 50 basis points in March, as well as February's CPI and non-farm payroll data, should be observed.</p><p><b>2) Adhere to the 2% inflation target, and the high interest rate environment will last for a long time.</b>Powell specifically emphasized that \"maintaining the credibility of the Fed's 2% inflation target will directly stabilize market expectations for the economic outlook. Therefore, sticking to the 2% target is indeed very important. We will not consider changing the Fed's 2% inflation control target.\" Previously, the market tended to ignore the 2% inflation target and overestimated the \"dovish\" shift brought about by expectations of a US economic recession. The special emphasis on adhering to the 2% inflation target indicates that the high-interest-rate environment will persist for a long time.</p><p><b>3) Currently, domestic monetary policy is still under observation, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments on A-shares is intensifying.</b>Given that the post-pandemic recovery of the domestic economy remains to be seen, it is unlikely that reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, or policy tightening will occur in the near future. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments have a significant impact on A-shares, and stocks with long durations, high valuations, and poor performance should be avoided in the short term. This impact is expected to dissipate in the event of easing US inflation-economic recession or a strong recovery in the Chinese economy, at which time the market is expected to build a new theme around US recession trading or China recovery trading.</p><p><b>The domestic market primarily affects fixed-income assets, while the United States influences global</b></p><p><b>One of the core reasons why the Federal Reserve has greater influence is the different mechanisms by which liquidity is transmitted to the equity market in China and the United States. Essentially, the transmission channels for China's macro liquidity to the A-share market are not smooth, and the central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets. The United States has a developed financial market and free and smooth capital flows, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct and profound impact on financial markets around the world.</b></p><p>On the one hand, the transmission channels of China's macro liquidity to the A-share market are not smooth, and there is often a disconnect between the micro and macro liquidity of the A-share market. The central bank's monetary policy mainly affects the pricing of fixed-income assets, and its impact on A-share pricing is indirect and limited.</p><p>According to the statistics of the People's Bank of China's \"2019 Survey on the Assets and Liabilities of Urban Households in China\", bank savings and fixed-income products such as wealth management, time deposits, and cash account for the vast majority of residents' financial assets, while equity assets such as stocks and funds account for less than 10% (of which funds are also mainly fixed-income). It is evident that equity accounts for a very low proportion of Chinese residents' financial assets, and the impact of monetary policy on macro liquidity mainly affects the bond market, while its impact on A-shares is limited.</p><p>A typical example is that after April last year, the surplus liquidity represented by M2-social financing climbed sharply to a historically high level, but this did not bring about a significant improvement in the micro-liquidity of A-shares. In the second half of last year, the issuance of new funds remained sluggish for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00410d4f25f426eee028e3d1d8af8c4a\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a9e69343d69e7a7ad6b24dcaee94d18\" tg-width=\"1061\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>On the other hand, the United States has a developed financial market and free and smooth capital flows, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a direct and profound impact on various financial markets around the world. Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented a quantitative easing monetary policy for a long time, resulting in a large influx of zero-cost or even negative-cost funds into the stock market. Technology stocks were highly sought after, while a large amount of funds also flowed into emerging market stock markets for diversified allocation. As a result, global stock markets, especially US technology stocks and emerging market stock markets, are particularly sensitive to changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b970bd8672657354dcfab9f6312b094\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>IV. How will the Federal Reserve affect A-shares this year?</b></p><p><b>A-share performance amid hawkish expectations and a strong dollar</b></p><p>Since 2021, changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have had the most significant impact on the market, forming two opposite market environments: \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\" and \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\". Using rising 10-year US Treasury yields and strengthening the US Dollar Index as standards, we can obtain three typical periods of \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\": January 6-March 31, 2021, August 4-October 11, 2021, and February 3-March 3, 2023. By statistically analyzing the performance of major A-share indices, styles, and industries during these three periods, we can obtain the characteristics of A-share performance in this environment:</p><p>1) The dividend index stands out among major indices, maintaining positive returns in all three periods. Large-cap value stocks (Shanghai Composite Index) and small-cap growth stocks (CSI 2000), whose valuations are not too high, have seen relatively small declines in the recent period, while large-cap growth stocks such as the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 have fallen sharply due to overvaluations amid hawkish expectations and a strong dollar.</p><p>2) In terms of style, stable styles perform the best, maintaining positive returns in all three periods. The cyclical performance is also relatively good. Growth and consumption performed the worst. It is evident that under hawkish expectations, long-term assets are very unfavorable, while short-term assets are relatively beneficial.</p><p>3) In terms of industry, undervalued, high-Dividend, and short-duration sectors such as coal, utilities, building decoration, and transportation performed best, while overvalued, high-growth, and long-duration sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computers performed worst.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b013b9bc97831286c2696aeafb844360\" tg-width=\"568\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d436b7f079e8bb01ee8c7325c279636c\" tg-width=\"566\" tg-height=\"817\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A-share performance in a dovish expectation and weak dollar environment</b></p><p>Similarly, using rising 10-year US Treasury yields and strengthening the US Dollar Index as standards, two typical periods of \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\" can be obtained, namely April 1-June 1, 2021, and November 4, 2022-February 2, 2023. By statistically analyzing the performance of major A-share indices, styles, and industries during these two periods, we can obtain the characteristics of A-share performance in this environment:</p><p>1) All major indices achieved positive returns, with the ChiNext index performing the best. Large-cap blue-chip indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 also rose significantly, while small-cap stocks performed relatively weakly. The dividend index was the smallest, but it still achieved a cumulative increase of 13.9%.</p><p>2) In terms of style, consumer style performed best, mainly benefiting from the recovery expectations brought about by the relaxation of domestic epidemic policies after November last year. Financial, cyclical, and growth styles also performed well, while stable styles performed the worst, which is the opposite of hawkish expectations and a strong dollar environment.</p><p>3) In terms of industries, food and beverage, beauty and care, non-ferrous metals, and media performed the strongest, while public utilities, environmental protection, and defense and military industries performed poorly. It is evident that under the \"dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\", stable stocks were abandoned by funds due to a lack of elasticity, and investors turned to embrace the most elastic direction. For November last year, the recovery expectations brought about by policy relaxation were the most elastic direction.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e846c6c8cf2716716bc71f047bfd3bd\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"489\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68609a05e24994ac269b9c80747fead7\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"921\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>High inflationary pressures remain, limiting upward pressure on the US dollar; the ECB may become a new variable.</b></p><p>Based on the above A-share review, we can draw the following conclusions:</p><p>1) The Federal Reserve's policies have had a huge impact on A-shares since 2021, with the A-share market performing in completely opposite ways under two different market environments.</p><p>2) \"Dovish expectations + weak dollar environment\" are most beneficial to the market. At this time, investors tend to extend the duration and seek elasticity. The source of elasticity can come from the post-pandemic recovery, or more commonly, from technology growth stocks.</p><p>3) Under the \"hawkish expectations + strong dollar environment\", market valuations have fallen, and funds have flowed into undervalued and high-Dividend stocks to seek safe havens and cash flow. Cyclical and stable stocks such as coal and utilities have benefited the most.</p><p>So, what kind of market environment will we face in the future? We believe that,<b>Currently, high global inflationary pressures remain. With the Federal Reserve expected to continue its rate hike, US Treasury Bond yields may rise further. However, compared to the United States, the inflation and rate hike situation in the Eurozone is more severe. The European Central Bank's stronger rate hike will boost the euro exchange rate, alleviate the upward pressure on the dollar, and ultimately, the recovery of the Chinese economy is expected to offset some of the pressure on the RMB to depreciate. Therefore, the market environment in the coming months is likely to see US Treasury Bond yields fluctuate upwards, but there will be little upward pressure on the US Dollar Index.</b></p><p>Inflationary pressures in the United States remain significant. In January, core PCE grew by 4.71% year-on-year, failing to continue the previous downward trend and instead rebounding, exceeding market expectations. The current round of inflation in the United States is a \"compound inflation\" in terms of its causes. It includes factors such as the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE and the US government's aggressive post-pandemic fiscal stimulus, as well as issues with energy investment, supply chain and labor. At the same time, the anti-globalization wave initiated by the Trump administration in 2018 has also disrupted the global supply chain system.</p><p>Judging from the current situation, although energy and supply chain issues have improved significantly in recent months, food and wage inflation remain high. We expect the upward pressure on housing rents, the largest component of inflation, to continue until September this year. This may lead to the US PCE remaining at a relatively high level in the coming months and making it difficult for it to fall significantly.</p><p>It is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely return to a rate hike of 50 basis points in March, and the Federal Funds rate range may rise to 5.5% to 5.75% by July. There is also a significant possibility that it will rise to 5.75% to 6.0%, compared to the current rate hike of 125 basis points. The trend of the benchmark interest rate will eventually be reflected in the US Treasury yields, and historically, the two will eventually reach the same level.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcc4ac523dcf11044150e1755199783a\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d50f787c1d5645abba12d7799b972381\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It should be noted that the Eurozone is currently facing a more severe inflationary adjustment, which means the ECB's \"higher and longer\" rate hike. The core harmonized CPI rebounded better than expected in February, with a preliminary year-on-year estimate of 5.6% compared to the expected 5.3%. The market generally expects the ECB to accumulate 100 basis points of rate hike in March and May, with interest rates peaking at around 4.1%.</p><p>Robert Holzmann, Governing Council Member of the European Central Bank and Governor of the Austrian Central Bank, recently made a hawkish statement in an interview with Bloomberg:<b>I believe core inflation will not weaken significantly in the first half of this year and will remain near current levels. Under these circumstances, I expect us to have four more rate hike this year, with rate hike gaining 0.5 percentage points. Even so, our deposit interest rate is only 4%. Only there will we roughly enter the restricted area.</b>。”</p><p>According to Robert Holzmann's rate hike path, the European Central Bank's deposit facility interest rate will rise from the current 2.5% to 4.5%, far exceeding the peak of 4% currently expected by the market. This is also an interest rate level that no other European Central Bank official has publicly proposed to date.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ed02969720a2c06b52572e75fb354b0\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0bf286d5a9a6324659f1d0ad9f9b328\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Looking at the history since the birth of the euro, there has never been a situation where inflation in the Eurozone has significantly exceeded that in the United States. Therefore, it is difficult for us to gain historical experience in a situation where the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have rate hike at the same time, European rate hike are higher, and the US Dollar Index is flat. Therefore, we will only analyze from a logical perspective: the previous article has already proven that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a significant influence on A-shares at certain stages. From the perspective of transmission channels, the influence of the European Central Bank can be seen as a weakened version of the Federal Reserve.</p><p>On the one hand, the European Central Bank's significant rate hike and potential monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan will raise global monetary costs, which will lead to continued capital outflows from emerging markets (or at least difficulty in inflows). At the same time, technology growth stocks will be under pressure, while stable cycle stocks will be strong. On the other hand, European stock markets are more value-oriented than US stocks due to their technology growth style, and they do not have benchmark valuation significance. The ability to drive A-shares down through risk appetite and sentiment is limited.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c54a00e7982414a9de69622e4fe3ee\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f33fa50ade7bdce2f52b18976fdca7\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>The key to A-shares' independent rally lies in whether their own fundamentals can strengthen.</b></p><p><b>A firm belief in rate hike is not a bad thing; the greatest risk has passed.</b></p><p>For the market, the central bank's firm stance on rate hike against the backdrop of high inflation is not a bad thing, while rate hike hesitation leading to runaway inflation has a greater negative impact on the market. Looking at the market over the past two years, when inflation was high but the Federal Reserve's rate hike was not firm (November 2021 - June 2022), US stocks fell the most. However, when the Federal Reserve firmly and significantly rate hike (since June 2022), US stocks stopped the downward trend and market volatility decreased. The valuation-killing risks brought about by rate hike have already become fully apparent. If the United States enters a recession in the future, it may lead to the final decline in US stocks due to the \"earnings-killing\" situation. However, the biggest impact on the A-share market has passed.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5b1ddee48677914bc382d74f3b31d2\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Despite short-term high global inflationary pressures, US Treasury yields are still rising, which will suppress the performance of stocks with long durations, high valuations, and poor performance.<b>This does not mean that the A-share market cannot start an independent rally, nor does it mean that the growth style of A-shares has weakened across the board. Historically, A-shares have repeatedly experienced independent rallies against the backdrop of rising US Treasury yields, and growth stocks have even performed well during this period. The key lies in the fact that China's economic fundamentals are significantly better than those of the United States, which helps to break down the Sino-US linkage and offset interest rate pressure from the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>Several periods when US Treasury yields rose but A-shares emerged from independent trends or growth stocks relatively outperformed include:</p><p>1) From December 2008 to June 2009, after reaching four trillion yuan, China's economy led the world in rapid recovery.</p><p>2) From May to December 2013, while the Federal Reserve was creating a Taper panic, China also experienced a \"cash crunch,\" which did not hinder the surge in small and medium-sized enterprises and growth enterprises.</p><p>3) From February to June 2015, China's economy stabilized, while the US economy declined sharply in the first quarter, causing market rate hike expectations to fail.</p><p>4) From September 2020 to January 2021, China's economy was the first to recover after the pandemic, and the US economy followed suit with a significant rebound.</p><p>5) From May to June 2022, China's economy recovered after the impact of the pandemic, and the United States implemented a significant rate hike to cope with inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d721fb20166b17f234f3fc2b9b19a3cc\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>We expect the Chinese economy to bottom out and recover in the first half of the year.</b>Based on our tracking of the economic inventory cycle, my country entered the active destocking phase in April last year. Based on the historical average of 11 months of active destocking cycle and the PPI, which is expected to bottom out in April this year, we expect the active destocking phase to end in March-May this year and enter the passive destocking phase. Meanwhile, consumer spending is expected to recover further after pandemic policies are relaxed and income expectations stabilize.</p><p><b>China's economy is expected to shift from a previous \"return to normal\" to a genuine \"recovery\".</b>If a macroeconomic fundamental combination of \"strong Chinese economy + weak US economy\" can be formed in the second half of this year, A-shares are expected to break through the constraints of the Federal Reserve and embark on an independent rally.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d71d77910905faf15f45306426adf2cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p>(1) The tightening degree of the Federal Reserve overseas exceeded expectations. If the US economy continues to resilient, with strong economic data such as the labor market and retail sales, then the risk of a US recession may face reassessment, while the risk of inflation will also face a rebound. The Federal Reserve will continue its tightening efforts to combat inflation, and global liquidity easing will fall short of expectations, inevitably putting pressure on the domestic equity market denominator.</p><p>(2) The severity of inflation in Europe exceeded expectations. If European inflation continues to rise higher than expected, the European Central Bank will be forced to rate hike significantly multiple times, which will lead to further increases in global interest rates and even prompt the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy. Global markets may move away from a low-interest-rate investment environment, and long-term assets face significant risks.</p><p>(3) The domestic economic recovery or the implementation of policies to stabilize growth have not been as effective as expected. If domestic real estate sales and investment data are slow to recover, the long-accumulated debt repayment risks of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are about to ferment, and the post-pandemic economic recovery is ultimately falsified, then the overall market trend will be under pressure, and overly optimistic pricing expectations will have to be revised.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NjczMzI0MA==&mid=2247539438&idx=1&sn=5764f6881d6208b1e06b06f114b1187d&chksm=e9b8da39decf532f16c1fb6989baa09aa78de83c51d3b23c2edbe3438587a8d37f08c4a142b2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0308Boj9dGL8rY8GFcOVadVb&sharer_sharetime=1678267375940&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">陈果A股策略</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0NjczMzI0MA==&mid=2247539438&idx=1&sn=5764f6881d6208b1e06b06f114b1187d&chksm=e9b8da39decf532f16c1fb6989baa09aa78de83c51d3b23c2edbe3438587a8d37f08c4a142b2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0308Boj9dGL8rY8GFcOVadVb&sharer_sharetime=1678267375940&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137703062","content_text":"作者：中信建投陈果、夏凡捷核心摘要核心观点：本文从A股与美股越来越强的联动性出发，探寻美联储影响A股的途径。并从四个原因进行分析，为什么在某些阶段海外流动性对A股的影响会超过国内流动性。本文最后指出，未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。对于A股来说，加息风险最大时点已过，短期利率攀升可能压制长久期资产，未来中国经济复苏将是独立行情启动关键。A股与美股联动性增强的背后对中美股市周涨跌幅相关性的分析印证了2019年之后中美联动加强的判断。A股与美股联动性增强的背后，美联储货币政策的影响不容忽视。其主要通过两条途径影响A股，一是通过美股涨跌直接影响A股估值，二是通过资金流动引发A股市场波动。国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？逻辑上，内因影响重于外因。实际上，美国利率变化对A股影响在某些阶段非常明显。例如美债利率上升前后对贵州茅台股价的影响，以及美元指数与沪深300的走势联动。为何A股受美联储影响这么大？外因影响近期尤为明显，原因有四：（2017年以来）A股国际化程度近年来明显提升；（2019年以来）国内精准调控，美国大开大合；（近两个月）国内尚处于观察期，美国预期转变；（传导机制）国内主要影响固收资产，美国影响全球资产定价。今年的美联储将如何影响A股？“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”对市场最为有利，此时投资者倾向于拉长久期，寻找弹性，弹性的来源可以来自疫后修复，更常见的情形是从科技成长股中寻求弹性。“鹰派预期+强美元环境”下市场估值下杀，资金涌入低估值、高股息品种避险，寻找现金流，煤炭、公用事业等周期、稳定类风格最为受益。未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。欧洲央行的加息可能超预期，但欧央行对A股的影响相对有限。对于A股来说，加息风险最大时点已过，短期利率攀升可能压制长久期资产，未来中国经济复苏将是独立行情启动关键。风险提示美联储紧缩程度超预期、欧洲通胀情况超预期、中国经济复苏低于预期。引言近两月美联储加息预期修正，A股与美股走势也越来越像。本文从中美股市联动性出发，探寻美联储影响A股的途径。从逻辑上看，中国经济决定了A股企业盈利增长，中国央行决定了A股市场流动，但为什么在某些阶段海外流动性对A股的影响会超过国内流动性？我们从四个方面进行解读，回答了“美联储为何再成A股关键”这一问题。文章最后，我们对“鹰派预期+强美元”和“鸽派预期+弱美元”两种市场环境下的A股表现进行复盘。指出未来一个阶段A股仍面临高通胀环境压力，和独立行情出现的机会。一、A股与美股联动性增强的背后A股与美股走势越来越像？近期与机构投资者交流，一个普遍的感受是A股与美股的走势越来越相像，这一特点在2019年下半年之后逐步明晰，近两个月尤为明显。特别是体现在科技成长代表性指数创业板指和纳斯达克指数上，经典指数沪深300和标普500也是如此：市场表现、涨跌方向多有相似表现。有鉴于此，A股投资者对于美联储货币政策动向、美元指数波动和美股走势的关注度也越来越高。对中美股市周涨跌幅相关性的分析印证了2019年之后中美联动加强的判断。统计结果表明，2010年创业板开板后到2018年年底，创业板指-纳斯达克指数、沪深300-标普500指数、上证50-道琼斯指数周涨跌幅的相关性系数分别为0.172、0.275和0.172，三组内部两者均不相关。而2019年以来，三组指数周涨跌幅的相关性分别为0.543、0.903和0.895，分别为中度相关、高度相关和高度相关。以上检验均在1%水平上显著。美联储货币政策如何影响A股？A股与美股联动性增强的背后，一个关键因素在于美国国债收益率作为全球定价之锚，同时作用于中美两国股市，导致两个市场产生联动。随着A股国际化程度的提高，美联储的货币政策调整对于A股的影响也越来越大，并逐步成为A股投资者不可忽视的关键政策。美联储货币政策对A股的传导途径主要有两条：其一是通过美股涨跌直接影响A股估值，这是由于美股发达的资本市场和高科技产业，导致美股众多科技龙头纷纷成为全球该领域成长股估值标杆，纳斯达克或相关科技龙头的股价波动会对创业板或相关科技行业估值产生直接影响；另外，美股的涨跌波动也会通过市场情绪的影响传导到A股，美股-中概股-港股-A股是一个常见的传导渠道。其二是通过资金流动引发A股市场波动，美联储货币政策调整、中美经济基本面差异等会引发没有美元的升值/贬值，这又会转变为人民币的升值/贬值压力和北上资金的净流入/净流出，最终通过汇率波动和外资出入影响A股市场。二、国内与海外流动性，A股受谁影响更大？逻辑上，内因影响重于外因海外因素影响增大的现象也引发了投资者的广泛关注，一个热点问题是，国内与海外的流动性/基本面变化，A股受谁影响更大？从逻辑上看，这一问题的答案是显而易见的：内因的影响重于外因。这是由于A股公司的盈利状况取决于中国经济自身，而流动性情况也取决于国内的流动性，外部因素只能从估值变化（对标估值、情绪传导）和资金流动（汇率波动和北上资金）这两个前述渠道传导到A股，产生间接的影响。中国作为经济大国，经济周期变化和货币政策调整均具有独立性，因此内外因素的影响方向不一定一致，从逻辑上看，A股应该受内因影响更大。实际上，美国利率变化对A股影响在某些阶段非常明显然而，在实践中投资者发现美国利率变化/美元指数波动对A股的影响在某些阶段非常明显。一个典型的例子是贵州茅台为代表的白酒股，由于其稳健的盈利能力受到了外资为代表的长线资金的喜爱。这导致贵州茅台在美联储零利率、全球流动性泛滥的2020年，估值从30倍飙升到了2021年初的70倍以上。而随着2021年1-2月拜登政府过度的财政刺激计划出台，叠加前期美联储“大放水”影响，美国国债收益率开始大幅上行。贵州茅台等“长久期、高估值”的资产首当其冲遭受打击，估值中枢大幅下移。贵州茅台估值最终回归到40倍附近的相对合理水平。股价也在其企业盈利并未出现异常变化的情况下大幅波动。海外因素对A股的影响可见一斑。美元指数是另一个影响A股走势的海外指标，2020年以来，沪深300指数的走势与美元指数的波动呈现显著的负相关关系，即从2020年3月-2021年1月美元指数走弱时，沪深300表现强势，2021年2月-2022年10月美元走强时，沪深300表现弱势，两者走势关联明显。三、为何A股受美联储影响这么大？A股国际化程度近年来明显提升A股投资越来越多的需要关注海外因素特别是美联储动作，这一现象在2017年之后尤为明显，一个关键原因在于，近年来随着A股国际化程度明显提升，外资持股规模逐步增加，且由于外资持股集中的特点，对部分蓝筹白马公司拥有较高定价权。首先，随着近年来A股国际化程度的提升，特别是MSCI等国际指数对A股多次扩容之后，外资持股规模逐步增加。我们统计截至去年12月，外资机构和个人共持有A股市值近3.2万亿，占全A总市值比例达到3.65%。2019年以来外资持股比例处于超过2.5%的较高水平，中美股市联动日益密切。其次，外资交易额占比近年来也有明显提升。虽然外资持股市值比例最高时也仅略超4%，但A股中有大量股本不参与流通，因此外资影响力相比起市值占比更高。从成交金额占比来看，仅统计每月北向资金成交金额占全A的比例，可以发现2019年以来占比也有明显攀升，近两年基本处于5%-6%之间的水平，2021年2月甚至达到了7.2%的高点。最后，外资持股受限于陆股通渠道和其策略要求，多于蓝筹白马标的中集中持股，这进一步增强了外资在部分行业和公司的话语权。我们统计发现当前外资持股占自由流通市值比例超过30%的有23只，占流通市值比例超过20%的有21只，这些外资话语权较大的股票多集中于银行、家电、电力设备、医药、食品饮料等金融、制造、消费领域。国内精准调控，美国大开大合美联储影响力巨大的另一个原因在于中美两国央行货币政策的风格截然不同。中国央行倾向于精准调控，货币政策变化并不剧烈，相比于美国货币政策的大开大合，国内更注重精准导向、直达实体。2019年下半年以来中美两国央行对政策利率的调整差异就能够很好的说明两国货币政策风格的不同。中国央行政策利率调整的频率较低，单次调整幅度较小，多为5 BP、10 BP或15BP，主基调“稳健”一直没有变化，具体表述上则有“稳健的货币政策灵活精准、合理适度”和“稳健的货币政策更加灵活适度”这样的区别。而美联储的联邦基金目标利率的调整多达13次，经历了2019年缓慢降息，2020年疫情后大幅降到零利率，2022年开始连续大幅加息三个阶段，调整幅度多为25BP、50 BP或75BP，甚至还有100BP大幅调降。在政策表述上，从疫情后“一次降息不足以解决所有问题”到2021年“通胀暂时论”和“放缓净资产购买的步伐”再到2022年“坚定承诺2%的通胀目标，继续大幅加息”，美联储的政策表态非常明确，且紧盯非农就业、通货膨胀等关键数据指标。明确的方向、较大的力度，叠加美国经济巨大的影响力，使得美联储的决策影响着全球金融市场。对于A股市场来说，不同的政策风格带来的边际影响是不同的。中国央行的政策虽然更加直接和重要，但变化较小，边际影响也较小，而美联储的动作频繁且影响巨大，因此更吸引投资者关注。国内尚处于观察期，美国预期转变今年以来，A股市场走势与美股愈发接近，或许其背后的原因在于当前国内货币政策尚处于观察期，而美国通胀和加息预期发生了重大转变，导致海外影响边际上升。年初国内疫情快速过峰，经济进入“复常”状态，但由于春节和疫情的基数扰动，市场对于当前经济修复状况仍有较大分歧，货币政策进入观察期。根据中国央行在2月24日发布的《2022年四季度货币政策执行报告》，此前“加大稳健货币政策实施力度”的表述修改为“稳健的货币政策要精准有力”，并重新提及2022年一季度货币政策执行报告中的“引导市场利率围绕政策利率波动”。这意味着央行对宏观经济的判断趋于积极，货币政策开始正常化，在未来一段时间，市场很难期待会有进一步的降准、降息举措。不过，在资金面中枢已经回归政策利率的当下，央行继续收紧资金面的可能性较低。预计央行将在一段观察期后再采取进一步的动作。然而，2月以来美国通胀和加息预期发生了重大转变。此前市场普遍预期通胀回落，美联储可能在3月进行最后一次加息，然后伴随着衰退预期的上升而停止加息。不过，这种预期对于通胀的回落过于乐观，随着美国强劲的非农就业和通胀数据出炉，市场对于美联储未来停止加息的预期遭到逆转，随之造成的影响包括美国国债收益率再度上行，10年期、30年期陆续升破4.0%，美元指数也从2月开始止跌回升，最大涨幅4.5%。从近期美联储官员表态当中也可以看出其态度已经明显转鹰。其主要言论围绕过高的通胀水平、劳动力市场供应紧张，并暗示3月可能加息50BP。预期改变或将进一步影响人民币汇率和A股走势。美东时间3月7日周二，美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院银行委员会的听证会上作证，警告今年初的强劲数据可能促使联储不再继续放缓、而是加快加息的脚步，最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。市场随之迅速反应，美国国债收益率全线飙升，美元指数大涨。我们如何解读？1）当前处于预期转变期，美联储政策调整非常注重数据变化。鲍威尔讲话后，3月美联储加息50BP概率和最终利率高点预期明显上调。我们认为未来政策利率峰值尚无法判断，这是因为美联储政策调整非常注重数据变化，未来需要从CPI、PCE、剔除住房后核心服务、非农、失业率等方向寻找通胀缓和、劳动力供给与需求匹配的证据。届时美联储政策加息节奏料将有所放缓。从短期看，3月是否加息50BP还有2月CPI和非农数据作为观察。2）坚守2%通胀目标，高利率环境持续时间较长。鲍威尔特别强调了“维持2%这一美联储通胀率目标的可信度，将能直接稳定住市场对经济前景的预期。所以，坚守2%的目标的确是非常重要的。不会考虑去变更美联储的2%通胀率控制目标。”此前市场往往倾向于忽略2%的通胀目标，过高估计了美国经济衰退预期带来的“鸽派”转向。此次特别强调坚守2%通胀目标，预示着高利率环境持续时间较长。3）当前国内货币政策尚处于观察期，美联储政策调整对A股影响加剧。由于当前国内经济疫后修复情况尚待观察，预计近期降准降息或政策收紧都不太可能。在此背景下美联储政策调整对A股的影响较大，应短期规避久期长、估值高、业绩差的品种。这一影响有望在美国通胀缓和-经济衰退或中国经济强劲复苏的情况下消除，届时市场有望围绕美国衰退交易或中国复苏交易构建新主线。国内主要影响固收资产，美国影响全球资产定价美联储影响力更大的一个核心原因在于中美两国流动性对权益市场的传导机制不同。本质上说，中国宏观流动性向A股市场的传导渠道并不畅通，央行货币政策主要影响固定收益资产定价。而美国金融市场发达、资金流动自由畅通，美联储货币政策对全球各个金融市场都有直接且深刻的影响。一方面，中国宏观流动性向A股市场的传导渠道并不畅通，A股市场微观流动性情况与宏观流动性经常存在割裂的情况，央行货币政策主要影响固定收益资产定价，对A股定价的影响间接且有限。根据中国人民银行《2019年中国城镇居民家庭资产负债情况调查》的统计结果，居民金融资产中理财、定期存款、现金等银行储蓄和固定收益型产品占据绝大部分的资产比例，而股票、基金等权益类资产占比不到10%（其中基金也以固收类为主）。可见中国居民金融资产中权益类占比极低，货币政策对宏观流动性的冲击主要对债市产生影响，而对A股的影响有限。一个典型的例子是，去年4月以后，M2-社融为代表的剩余流动性大幅攀升到历史极高水平，但并未带来A股微观流动性的明显改善，去年下半年新基金发行长期处于冷清状态。另一方面，美国金融市场发达、资金流动自由畅通，美联储货币政策对全球各个金融市场都有直接且深刻的影响。尤其是2008年金融危机之后，美联储长期实施量化宽松的货币政策，零成本甚至负成本的资金大量涌入股市，科技股受到热捧，同时大量资金还流入新兴市场股市进行多元化配置。其结果是全球股市，特别是美股科技股、新兴市场股市对美联储货币政策变化尤为敏感。四、今年的美联储将如何影响A股？鹰派预期+强美元环境下的A股表现2021年以来，美联储货币政策的变化对市场的影响最为明显，能够形成“鹰派预期+强美元环境”和“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”两类相反的市场环境，我们以十年期美债收益率上行和美元指数走强为标准，可以得到三段典型的“鹰派预期+强美元环境期”，分别为2021年1月6日-3月31日，2021年8月4日-2022年10月11日，2023年2月3日-3月3日。统计这三段时期A股主要指数、风格和行业表现，可以得到这类环境下A股表现特征：1）主要指数上红利指数一枝独秀，三段时期均能保持正收益。估值不算太高的大盘价值（上证指数）和小盘成长（国证2000）在最近一期跌幅较小，而创业板指、科创50等大盘成长股由于估值过高，在鹰派预期+强美元环境下跌幅巨大。2）风格上稳定风格表现最强，同样在三段时期均能保持正收益。周期表现也相对较好。成长和消费表现最差。可见鹰派预期下，长久期资产非常不利，而短久期资产相对受益。3）行业上，煤炭、公用事业、建筑装饰、交通运输等低估值、高股息、短久期板块表现最好，电子、医药生物、计算机等高估值、高成长、长久期板块表现最差。鸽派预期+弱美元环境下的A股表现同样的，以十年期美债收益率上行和美元指数走强为标准，可以得到两段典型的“鸽派预期+弱美元环境期”，分别为2021年4月1日-6月1日，2022年11月4日-2023年2月2日。统计这两段时期A股主要指数、风格和行业表现，可以得到这类环境下A股表现特征：1）主要指数上所有指数均获得正收益，其中创业板指表现最好，上证50、沪深300等大盘蓝筹指数也有明显上涨，小盘股表现相对偏弱，红利指数政府最小，但也有累计13.9%的涨幅。2）风格上消费风格表现最好，这主要受益于去年11月之后国内疫情政策放开带来的复苏预期。金融、周期、成长风格也同样有较好表现，稳定风格表现最差，这正好与鹰派预期+强美元环境表现相反。3）行业上，食品饮料、美容护理、有色金属、传媒等行业表现最为强劲，而公用事业、环保、国防军工等表现较差。可见在“鸽派预期+弱美元环境” 下稳定类风格由于缺乏弹性遭到资金抛弃，投资者转而拥抱最具有弹性的方向，对于去年11月来说，政策放开带来的复苏预期是最具弹性的方向。高通胀压力仍在，美元上涨压力有限，欧央行或成新变数通过上述A股复盘，我们可以得到以下结论：1）美联储政策2021年以来对A股影响巨大，两种不同市场环境下A股市场表现截然相反。2）“鸽派预期+弱美元环境”对市场最为有利，此时投资者倾向于拉长久期，寻找弹性，弹性的来源可以来自疫后修复，更常见的情形是从科技成长股中寻求弹性。3）“鹰派预期+强美元环境”下市场估值下杀，资金涌入低估值、高股息品种避险，寻找现金流，煤炭、公用事业等周期、稳定类风格最为受益。那么，未来我们即将面临什么样的市场环境呢？我们认为，目前全球高通胀压力仍在，美联储继续加息预期之下美国国债收益率或将进一步上行，不过相比于美国，欧元区通胀和加息形势更为严峻，欧洲央行更大力度的加息将提振欧元汇率，减轻美元上涨压力，最后中国经济的复苏也有望抵消一部分人民币贬值压力。因此，未来数月的市场环境可能是美国国债收益率震荡上行，但美元指数上涨压力不大。当前美国通胀压力依然较大，1月核心PCE同比增速4.71%，未能延续前期下跌态势，反而有所反弹，超出市场预期。美国本轮通胀从起因来看属于“复合型通胀”，既有美联储无限量QE和美国政府疫后激进的财政刺激因素，也有能源投资、供应链和劳动力的问题，同时2018年特朗普政府开启的逆全球化浪潮也破坏的全球供应链体系。从当前情况来看，虽然能源和供应链问题近几个月已经得到明显改善，但食品和工资通胀仍然居高不下，我们预计通胀中权重最大的住房租金分项上涨压力或将持续到今年9月，这可能导致美国PCE在未来几个月维持在偏高水平难以明显回落。目前预计3月美联储大概率重回加息50BP，到7月联邦基金利率区间可能升至5.5%至5.75%，同时也有不小的可能升至5.75%至6.0 %，相比目前共加息125BP。基准利率的态势最终也会反映到美债利率上，从历史上看两者最终将达到相同的高度。需要注意的是，当前欧元区面临更为严峻的通胀调整，这意味着欧央行“更高、更久”的加息。2月核心调和CPI超预期反弹，同比初值5.6%，预期为5.3%，市场普遍预计欧央行将在3月和5月累计加息100个基点，利率峰值将至4.1%左右。近日欧洲央行管委、奥地利央行行长罗伯特·霍尔兹曼在接受彭博采访时做出了鹰派表态：“我认为核心通胀在今年上半年不会明显减弱，将保持在当前水平附近。在这种情况下，我预计我们今年将再加息4次，加息0.5个百分点。即使这样，我们的存款利率也只有4%。只有在那里，我们才会大致进入限制区域。”按照罗伯特·霍尔兹曼提出的加息路径，欧洲央行存款机制利率将从目前的2.5%升至4.5%，远高于当前市场预期的4%的峰值，这也是迄今为止其他任何欧洲央行官员都未曾公开提出过的利率水平。从欧元诞生后的历史来看，欧元区通胀大幅超过美国的情况此前从未出现，因此我们也很难得到美联储、欧央行同时加息，欧洲加息更多，美元指数走平情形下的历史经验。因此我们仅从逻辑上进行分析：前文已经证明，美联储货币政策在某些阶段对A股拥有较大的影响力，从传导渠道分析，欧洲央行的影响力可以看做是弱化版的美联储。一方面，欧洲央行的大幅加息和潜在的日本央行货币政策调整将抬升全球货币成本，这将导致资金继续从新兴市场流出（或至少难以流入），同时科技成长风格承压，稳定周期风格强势。另一方面，欧洲股市相比美股的科技成长风格更加偏向价值，也没有估值的标杆性意义。通过风险偏好和情绪的渠道带动A股下跌的能力有限。A股走出独立行情关键在于自身基本面能否走强坚定加息不是坏事，风险最大时点已过对市场而言，高通胀背景下央行坚定加息并非坏事，加息犹豫导致通胀失控对市场负面冲击更大。从前两年的市场来看，当通胀高企但美联储加息不坚决时（2021年11月-2022年6月）美股跌幅最大，而当美联储坚定大幅加息时（2022年6月以来）美股反而止住了下跌的势头，市场波动降低。到现在加息带来的杀估值风险已经体现充分，美国如果未来进入衰退则可能导致美股“杀业绩”进入最后一跌。但对于A股而言冲击最大的时点已经过去。短期全球高通胀压力下，美国债收益率仍在走高，这将压制久期长、估值高、业绩差的品种股价表现，不过这并不意味着A股市场无法开启独立行情，也不意味着A股成长风格全面走弱。从历史上看，A股有多次在美债收益率上行背景下走出独立行情，甚至在此期间成长风格表现较好。其关键在于中国经济基本面表现明显优于美国，这有助于打破中美联动关系，屏除来自美联储的利率压力。几个美债收益率上行但A股走出独立行情或成长风格相对跑赢的时期包括：1）2008年12月-2009年6月，四万亿之后中国经济领先全球快速复苏。2）2013年5月-2013年12月，美联储制造Taper恐慌之际，中国也出现“钱荒”，无碍中小创大涨。3）2015年2月-2015年6月，中国经济企稳，美国经济一季度大幅回落，导致市场加息预期落空。4）2020年9月-2021年1月，中国经济疫情后率先复苏，美国经济紧随其后也明显回升。5）2022年5月-2022年6月，中国经济疫情冲击后迎来修复，美国为应对通胀大幅加息。我们预计中国经济在上半年有望完成触底回升。从我们对经济库存周期的跟踪来看，去年4月我国进入主动去库存阶段，根据历史上平均11个月的主动去库存周期和有望在今年4月见底的PPI来看，我们预计主动去库存阶段或将在今年3-5月结束，并进入被动去库存阶段。同时居民消费也有望在疫情政策放开、收入预期稳定后进一步恢复。中国经济有望从之前的“复常”转向真正的“复苏”。如果今年下半年能够形成“中国经济强+美国经济弱”的宏观基本面组合，A股将有望打破美联储制约，走出一段独立行情。风险提示：（1）海外美联储紧缩程度超预期。如果美国经济持续保持韧性，劳动力市场、零售等经济数据表现亮眼，那么美国衰退风险或将面临重估，同时通胀风险也将面临反弹，美联储紧缩抗通胀之路继续，全球流动性宽松不及预期，国内权益市场分母端难免也将承压。（2）欧洲通胀严重程度超预期。如果欧洲通胀继续超预期高企，欧洲央行将被迫多次大幅度加息，这将导致全球利率水平进一步抬升，甚至推动日本央行货币政策调整。全球市场可能告别低利率的投资环境，长久期资产面临较大风险。（3）国内经济复苏或稳增长政策实施效果不及预期。如果后续国内地产销售、投资等数据迟迟难以恢复，长期积累的城投偿债风险面临发酵，经济疫后复苏最终证伪，那么整体市场走势将会承压，过于乐观的定价预期将会面临修正。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902904,"gmtCreate":1678280308609,"gmtModify":1678280313066,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902904","repostId":"2317496400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317496400","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678279423,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317496400?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The non-farm payrolls report has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be another one on Friday?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317496400","media":"金十数据","summary":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth because they overestimated the impact of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive rate hike actions in decades. U.S. non-farm payroll growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest such period in decades.<b>If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hike.</b></p><p>Since April of last year, the median forecast of each survey of economists by foreign media has been 100,000 people lower than the average monthly non-farm payroll data released by the government. This is the largest discrepancy in the data compiled by foreign media since 1998. Regarding the February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday,<b>The market expects an increase of 200,000 people, which is about half the increase in January.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697290899720116a3782360dc5ae33fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth.</b>Because of them<b>Overestimating the impact of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive rate hike actions in decades</b>。 After experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic<b>Businesses are reluctant to fire the employees they have worked so hard to hire</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">Apollo Global Management</a>The company's chief economist, Torsten Slok, said:</p><p>“The market had been expecting the economy to slow down against the backdrop of Federal Reserve rate hike, but that hasn’t happened at all.” Employers are still struggling to fill millions of vacant positions, and initial jobless claims are at an all-time low. On the other hand, some industries are laying off employees, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate hike in the summer, which could put greater pressure on demand and risk a significant slowdown in hiring.</p><p>Currently,<b>The labor market is one of the Federal Reserve's last hurdles against inflation</b>。 Stable job creation and wage growth will keep consumers spending, thus keeping prices rising. Understanding the trajectory of inflation is crucial for policymakers trying to cool down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>Here are some factors contributing to the surprisingly strong employment numbers:</p><p><b>The demand for workers remains high.</b></p><p>By the end of this year, there were more than 11 million job openings in the United States. Currently, the market expects the January JOLTs job openings released on Wednesday to show a slight slowdown in job openings in January.<b>The most obvious vacancies are in industries such as leisure and hospitality, and healthcare.</b>Other data shows that manufacturers and small businesses are also struggling to fill gaps.</p><p><b>Because of such a severe labor shortage, companies have been retaining workers, a practice known as \"labor hoarding.\"</b>。 The Federal Reserve mentioned this at its last policy meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said:</p><p>\"If the trend of labor hoarding continues, it could make the labor market stronger for a period of time during the cycle, and it's really hard to determine when the economy will slow down.\"<b>Small scope of layoffs</b></p><p>Although the technology industry is carrying out sweeping layoffs, with approximately 110,000 people laid off from November to January of last year alone,<b>But this is only a small fraction of the nearly 166 million workforce.</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists say,<b>This situation is largely limited to companies that actively expanded during the pandemic and experienced significant stock price declines.</b>。 They stated in a report:</p><p>\"These characteristics suggest that companies laying off employees are not representative of the overall economy, and many recent layoff announcements do not necessarily indicate weak hiring demand, which could have a broader impact,\" data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.<b>Broader layoff indicators in the overall economy remain below pre-pandemic levels.</b>However, there has been an increase in the past year.<b>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits remains low, with less than 200,000 people for seven consecutive weeks.</b></p><p>Part of the reason may be severance pay,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economist Daniel Silver estimated last month that, based on their model, the number of unemployment claims should increase by about 50,000, but that the pace of layoffs could be delayed due to severance pay.</p><p>In addition,<b>Unemployed Americans may also soon be poached by other companies</b>。 The recruitment rate (the number of people recruited relative to the total number of people employed) remains above the pre-pandemic average.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Ryan expects the latest revised data released on Wednesday to make hiring rates look even stronger.</p><p>It should be noted that employment had already recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of last year, therefore<b>The slowdown in employment growth is quite natural.</b>。 In addition, the Federal Reserve's rate hike may accelerate the trend of economic cooling. This is what the Federal Reserve is trying to design: slowing the pace of hiring to ease wage pressures and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics stated in a report last month:</p><p>\"If the breadth of layoff announcements expands, or the re-employment rate begins to decline rapidly, it would indicate that cracks are forming in the labor market.\"</body></html></p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The non-farm payrolls report has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be another one on Friday?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe non-farm payrolls report has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months. Will there be another one on Friday?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-08 20:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth because they overestimated the impact of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive rate hike actions in decades. U.S. non-farm payroll growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest such period in decades.<b>If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hike.</b></p><p>Since April of last year, the median forecast of each survey of economists by foreign media has been 100,000 people lower than the average monthly non-farm payroll data released by the government. This is the largest discrepancy in the data compiled by foreign media since 1998. Regarding the February non-farm payrolls report released on Friday,<b>The market expects an increase of 200,000 people, which is about half the increase in January.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/697290899720116a3782360dc5ae33fb\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Economists may have repeatedly underestimated job growth.</b>Because of them<b>Overestimating the impact of the Federal Reserve's most aggressive rate hike actions in decades</b>。 After experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic<b>Businesses are reluctant to fire the employees they have worked so hard to hire</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">Apollo Global Management</a>The company's chief economist, Torsten Slok, said:</p><p>“The market had been expecting the economy to slow down against the backdrop of Federal Reserve rate hike, but that hasn’t happened at all.” Employers are still struggling to fill millions of vacant positions, and initial jobless claims are at an all-time low. On the other hand, some industries are laying off employees, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate hike in the summer, which could put greater pressure on demand and risk a significant slowdown in hiring.</p><p>Currently,<b>The labor market is one of the Federal Reserve's last hurdles against inflation</b>。 Stable job creation and wage growth will keep consumers spending, thus keeping prices rising. Understanding the trajectory of inflation is crucial for policymakers trying to cool down inflation without triggering a recession.</p><p>Here are some factors contributing to the surprisingly strong employment numbers:</p><p><b>The demand for workers remains high.</b></p><p>By the end of this year, there were more than 11 million job openings in the United States. Currently, the market expects the January JOLTs job openings released on Wednesday to show a slight slowdown in job openings in January.<b>The most obvious vacancies are in industries such as leisure and hospitality, and healthcare.</b>Other data shows that manufacturers and small businesses are also struggling to fill gaps.</p><p><b>Because of such a severe labor shortage, companies have been retaining workers, a practice known as \"labor hoarding.\"</b>。 The Federal Reserve mentioned this at its last policy meeting.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>Senior U.S. economist Brett Ryan said:</p><p>\"If the trend of labor hoarding continues, it could make the labor market stronger for a period of time during the cycle, and it's really hard to determine when the economy will slow down.\"<b>Small scope of layoffs</b></p><p>Although the technology industry is carrying out sweeping layoffs, with approximately 110,000 people laid off from November to January of last year alone,<b>But this is only a small fraction of the nearly 166 million workforce.</b>。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Economists say,<b>This situation is largely limited to companies that actively expanded during the pandemic and experienced significant stock price declines.</b>。 They stated in a report:</p><p>\"These characteristics suggest that companies laying off employees are not representative of the overall economy, and many recent layoff announcements do not necessarily indicate weak hiring demand, which could have a broader impact,\" data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.<b>Broader layoff indicators in the overall economy remain below pre-pandemic levels.</b>However, there has been an increase in the past year.<b>The number of people applying for unemployment benefits remains low, with less than 200,000 people for seven consecutive weeks.</b></p><p>Part of the reason may be severance pay,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Economist Daniel Silver estimated last month that, based on their model, the number of unemployment claims should increase by about 50,000, but that the pace of layoffs could be delayed due to severance pay.</p><p>In addition,<b>Unemployed Americans may also soon be poached by other companies</b>。 The recruitment rate (the number of people recruited relative to the total number of people employed) remains above the pre-pandemic average.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">Deutsche Bank</a>Ryan expects the latest revised data released on Wednesday to make hiring rates look even stronger.</p><p>It should be noted that employment had already recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of last year, therefore<b>The slowdown in employment growth is quite natural.</b>。 In addition, the Federal Reserve's rate hike may accelerate the trend of economic cooling. This is what the Federal Reserve is trying to design: slowing the pace of hiring to ease wage pressures and bring inflation down to its 2% target. Ryan Sweet of Oxford Economics stated in a report last month:</p><p>\"If the breadth of layoff announcements expands, or the re-employment rate begins to decline rapidly, it would indicate that cracks are forming in the labor market.\"</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107989&type=news&data_type=0\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cefea9bf585b43364836145fdefa6c19","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=107989&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317496400","content_text":"经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。美国非农就业人数增长已连续10个月超过市场预期，这是数十年来持续时间最长的一次。如果这一趋势继续延续下去，将加大美联储继续加息的压力。从去年4月开始，外媒对经济学家每次调查的预测中值都比政府公布的非农数据平均每月低10万人，这是外媒自1998年以来汇编的数据中差距最大的。对于周五公布的2月非农就业报告，市场预估为增加20万人，增幅约为1月的一半。经济学家可能一再低估了就业增长，因为他们高估了美联储几十年来最激进的加息行动的影响。在经历了新冠疫情后，企业不愿意解雇他们辛辛苦苦雇用的员工。阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok表示：“市场一直预期，在美联储加息的背景下，经济将放缓，但这种情况根本没有发生。”雇主们仍在努力填补数百万个空缺职位，初请失业金申请人数也处于历史最低水平。另一方面，一些行业正在裁员，美联储预计将在夏季继续加息，这可能会对需求造成更大压力，并有大幅放缓招聘的风险。目前，劳动力市场是美联储对抗通胀的最后几个障碍之一。稳定的就业机会创造和工资增长将使消费者保持消费，从而使价格持续上涨。对于那些试图在不引发衰退的情况下为通胀降温的政策制定者来说，理解通胀的轨迹至关重要。以下是会让就业人数出奇强劲的一些因素：对工人的需求仍大截至今年年底，美国就业机会超过1100万个，目前，市场预期周三公布的美国1月JOLTs职位空缺预计将显示1月份就业机会略微放缓。空缺最明显的是休闲和酒店以及医疗保健等行业，而其他数据显示，制造商和小企业也在努力填补空缺。由于劳动力短缺如此严重，企业一直在留住工人，这种做法被称为“劳动力囤积”。美联储在上次政策会议上提到了这一点。德意志银行高级美国经济学家Brett Ryan说：“如果劳动力囤积的趋势持续下去，它可能会让劳动力市场在周期中更强劲一段时间，真的很难确定经济放缓的时间。”裁员范围小虽然科技行业正大刀阔斧地进行裁员，仅从去年11月到1月就裁了有11万人左右，但这在近1.66亿劳动力中只是一小部分。高盛的经济学家说，这种情况在很大程度上也仅限于那些在疫情期间积极扩张、股价跌幅很大的公司。他们在一份报告中称：“这些特征表明，进行裁员的公司并不能代表整体经济，近期许多裁员公告并不一定意味着可能产生更广泛影响的招聘需求疲软。”美国劳工统计局的数据显示，整体经济中更广泛的裁员指标仍低于疫情前的水平，不过在过去一年有所上升。申请失业救济的人数仍然很低，连续7周不到20万人。其中，部分原因可能是遣散费，摩根大通经济学家Daniel Silver上个月估计，根据他们的模型，失业救济申请人数应增加约5万人，但因为遣散费，企业裁员的进度可能会推迟。此外，失业的美国人也可能很快被其他公司挖走。招聘率（招聘人数相对于总就业人数）仍然高于疫情前的平均水平。德意志银行的Ryan预计，周三公布的最新修正数据将使招聘率看起来更加强劲。需要注意的是，就业人数在去年年中就已恢复到疫情前的水平，因此就业人数增长的速度放缓是很自然的。此外，美联储的加息可能会加速经济降温的趋势。这就是美联储正在努力设计的，即减缓招聘步伐，以缓解工资压力，并使通胀降至2%的目标。牛津经济研究院的Ryan Sweet上月在一份报告中表示：“如果裁员公告的广度扩大，或者再就业率开始迅速下降，这将表明劳动力市场正在形成裂缝。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":0.84,".DJI":0.84,"OEX":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SH":0.6,".IXIC":0.84,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949902018,"gmtCreate":1678280296034,"gmtModify":1678280300014,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949902018","repostId":"1101924070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101924070","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678279502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101924070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market news: US safety regulators are investigating a possible detachment of Tesla's steering wheel.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101924070","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, U.S. auto safety regulators received two incidents related to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y has been launched following complaints that the steering wheel may have come loose while driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involves approximately 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year. The agency said that in both cases, the Model Y was missing a bolt that secures the steering wheel to the steering column when it was delivered to the customer. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but it separates when the car is subjected to force while driving.</p><p>The agency said in documents posted on its website on Wednesday that both accidents occurred when the Model Y had low mileage. Investigators will look into the frequency of problems, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market news: US safety regulators are investigating a possible detachment of Tesla's steering wheel.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket news: US safety regulators are investigating a possible detachment of Tesla's steering wheel.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-08 20:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, U.S. auto safety regulators received two incidents related to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y has been launched following complaints that the steering wheel may have come loose while driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involves approximately 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year. The agency said that in both cases, the Model Y was missing a bolt that secures the steering wheel to the steering column when it was delivered to the customer. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but it separates when the car is subjected to force while driving.</p><p>The agency said in documents posted on its website on Wednesday that both accidents occurred when the Model Y had low mileage. Investigators will look into the frequency of problems, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","TSLA":"特斯拉","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101924070","content_text":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车。该机构说，在这两起案件中，Model Y交付给客户时，都缺少一个将方向盘固定在转向柱上的螺栓。一个摩擦装置固定住了方向盘，但当汽车在行驶过程中受力时，方向盘就会分离。该机构周三在其网站上公布的文件中说，这两起事故都发生在Model Y行驶里程较低的情况下。调查人员将调查问题发生的频率、受影响的车辆数量以及特斯拉的制造过程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9949906758,"gmtCreate":1678280287875,"gmtModify":1678280291943,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9949906758","repostId":"1101924070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101924070","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1678279502,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101924070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-08 20:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Market news: US safety regulators are investigating a possible detachment of Tesla's steering wheel.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101924070","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, U.S. auto safety regulators received two incidents related to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y has been launched following complaints that the steering wheel may have come loose while driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involves approximately 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year. The agency said that in both cases, the Model Y was missing a bolt that secures the steering wheel to the steering column when it was delivered to the customer. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but it separates when the car is subjected to force while driving.</p><p>The agency said in documents posted on its website on Wednesday that both accidents occurred when the Model Y had low mileage. Investigators will look into the frequency of problems, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Market news: US safety regulators are investigating a possible detachment of Tesla's steering wheel.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarket news: US safety regulators are investigating a possible detachment of Tesla's steering wheel.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-08 20:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 8, according to the Associated Press, U.S. auto safety regulators received two incidents related to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An investigation into the Model Y has been launched following complaints that the steering wheel may have come loose while driving.</p><p>The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the investigation involves approximately 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model year. The agency said that in both cases, the Model Y was missing a bolt that secures the steering wheel to the steering column when it was delivered to the customer. A friction device holds the steering wheel in place, but it separates when the car is subjected to force while driving.</p><p>The agency said in documents posted on its website on Wednesday that both accidents occurred when the Model Y had low mileage. Investigators will look into the frequency of problems, the number of vehicles affected, and Tesla's manufacturing process.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","TSLA":"特斯拉","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101924070","content_text":"3月8日，据美联社，美国汽车安全监管机构在接到两起有关特斯拉Model Y方向盘在驾驶过程中可能脱落的投诉后，开始对该车型展开调查。美国国家公路交通安全管理局表示，调查涉及2023年款的约12万辆汽车。该机构说，在这两起案件中，Model Y交付给客户时，都缺少一个将方向盘固定在转向柱上的螺栓。一个摩擦装置固定住了方向盘，但当汽车在行驶过程中受力时，方向盘就会分离。该机构周三在其网站上公布的文件中说，这两起事故都发生在Model Y行驶里程较低的情况下。调查人员将调查问题发生的频率、受影响的车辆数量以及特斯拉的制造过程。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533686,"gmtCreate":1678019375845,"gmtModify":1678019379296,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533686","repostId":"1157059208","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533861,"gmtCreate":1678019346453,"gmtModify":1678019350505,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533861","repostId":"1154440961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154440961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677989017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154440961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 12:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lei Jun's New Story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154440961","media":"全天候科技","summary":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of the ecosystem.</b></b><b>Instead</b><b><b>Telling the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>In recent years, Xiaomi has been building its ecosystem and expanding into numerous smart device fields, gradually allowing Mi Home terminal smart products to penetrate various IoT markets.</p><p>As the smartphone market entered its second phase, Lei Jun no longer focused on telling the story of the ecosystem, but instead on the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun brought up the story of \"supply chain\" at the \"Two Sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, as a deputy to the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, one of which was about promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested encouraging and supporting the science and technology innovation industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Yuan Fund\" launched its second round of financing, with the fundraising scale increasing from more than 6 billion yuan last year to more than 9 billion yuan. This fund's investment objectives focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about its supply chain has made phased progress. According to previous statistics from Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi had invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of intelligent vehicles.</p><p>\"Cost-effectiveness\" has always been Xiaomi's deepest label. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for its \"insufficient self-developed technology capabilities\". Investments in upstream core supply chain companies or technology companies demonstrate Xiaomi's determination to strengthen its voice in the supply chain.</p><p>The launch of the supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>Speaking out for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>Since its debut last August, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from recent updates from Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs in the field of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>In his suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that my country has made key breakthroughs in the core technologies of bionic humanoid robots, but still faces challenges such as the need to improve the performance of core components, insufficient application demand, lack of large-scale mass production capabilities, and an unsound application ecosystem and supporting system.</p><p>Therefore, he suggested: encouraging and supporting the science and technology innovation industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry; Support machine manufacturers to take the lead in creating national innovation consortia and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecosystem for bionic humanoid robots and accelerate the cultivation of application scenarios.</p><p>Last June, driven by Musk's announcement that he would launch a humanoid robot, the concept of bionic humanoid robots became a hot topic in the domestic capital market, and this sub-sector also became the hottest track in the robotics industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi unveiled its prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"CyberOne\") at Lei Jun's annual keynote speech before Tesla, and this enthusiasm reached its peak.</p><p>Xiaomi's CyberOne is not a PowerPoint presentation or a prop; it's a handheld prototype that can interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of each CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan, making it impossible to achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that shaped bionic robots had the highest degree of technological integration and the greatest difficulty, and Xiaomi was still in its early stages.</p><p>Turning its attention overseas, Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus, unveiled at last year's AI Day, also failed to meet its previously claimed standards. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk yet, but I think it will in a few weeks.\"</p><p>Musk previously made a bold statement: the target price of Optimus Prime Optimus may be less than $20,000, and more than a million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed recent progress on Optimus Prime at Tesla's investor day: \"It's not working properly, but things are getting better.\"</p><p>Tesla continues to increase its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology discovered that Tesla China recently released job postings for robotics positions, including Automation Control Engineer (Robotics) and Electrical Design Engineer - Robotics Development and Applications.</p><p>The prospects offered by the institution are very attractive. Global market research firm Marketsandmarkets predicts that the global humanoid robot market will grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to $17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots have the potential to become another entry point after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>However, it is undeniable that the bionic humanoid robot industry is one that requires long-term investment.</p><p>In China, there are still many realities facing this track that must be addressed, such as core components, robot underlying operating systems and chips, and system design software.</p><p><b>Billions of yuan fund focuses on the integrated circuit industry chain</b></p><p>After raising over 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Yuan Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2, Kingsoft announced that its subsidiaries, including Wuhan Kingsoft, Xiaomi Beijing, and Xiaomi Wuhan, have entered into partnership agreements with other investors to establish an equity investment fund in the integrated circuit-related field, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Lei Jun's Xiaomi and Kingsoft, the fund's LPs also include Beijing Municipal Guidance Fund and Yizhuang State-owned Investment, which are backed by Beijing state-owned assets, Tianjin Haichuang, which is owned by Tianjin state-owned assets Beijing, as well as Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Xingzheng Investment, and GigaDevice.</p><p>Compared to its initial fundraising in July last year, the fund has five new faces: Wuhan Kingsoft, Beijing Guidance Fund, Naxing Venture Capital, Di'ao Microelectronics, and CITIC Haohong. The fund's size has also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in its initial financing to 9.03 billion yuan, approaching the target size of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to business registration information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing\"). It was registered and established on September 18, 2021, and the filing was completed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the fund's purpose, Kingsoft stated that it primarily engages in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in non-listed companies.</p><p>The main targets are integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors, covering next-generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, and upstream and downstream applications and supply chains related to mobile terminal consumer goods and smart devices.</p><p>It is not difficult to see from this that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current businesses of mobile phones and automobiles. For a long time, most of Xiaomi's investments have revolved around its main business and future development direction, focusing on technological upgrades and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, automobiles, and semiconductors.</p><p>Since announcing its car manufacturing strategy, Xiaomi has been expanding into several companies related to the automotive industry chain through investment and equity investment. According to previous statistics from Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi had invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of intelligent vehicles, including 17 companies in intelligent driving, 13 companies in intelligent electric vehicles, and 6 companies in intelligent cockpits. Among them, 22 companies were newly invested in in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investments were completed through the Xiaomi Yangtze River Industry Investment Fund. After its establishment, Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing focused more on collaborative investment in Xiaomi's automotive business.</p><p>Public information shows that Xiaomi Smart Manufacturing currently has more than ten external investment projects, all of which involve the automotive industry chain, including multiple links such as semiconductors, power batteries, and core equipment parts.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's investment in the upstream and downstream sectors of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as his previous investment in Xiaomi's ecosystem. This will help it further enhance its vertical integration capabilities in the vehicle business and ensure the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qthkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lei Jun's New Story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLei Jun's New Story\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全天候科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of the ecosystem.</b></b><b>Instead</b><b><b>Telling the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>In recent years, Xiaomi has been building its ecosystem and expanding into numerous smart device fields, gradually allowing Mi Home terminal smart products to penetrate various IoT markets.</p><p>As the smartphone market entered its second phase, Lei Jun no longer focused on telling the story of the ecosystem, but instead on the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun brought up the story of \"supply chain\" at the \"Two Sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, as a deputy to the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, one of which was about promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested encouraging and supporting the science and technology innovation industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Yuan Fund\" launched its second round of financing, with the fundraising scale increasing from more than 6 billion yuan last year to more than 9 billion yuan. This fund's investment objectives focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about its supply chain has made phased progress. According to previous statistics from Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi had invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of intelligent vehicles.</p><p>\"Cost-effectiveness\" has always been Xiaomi's deepest label. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for its \"insufficient self-developed technology capabilities\". Investments in upstream core supply chain companies or technology companies demonstrate Xiaomi's determination to strengthen its voice in the supply chain.</p><p>The launch of the supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>Speaking out for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>Since its debut last August, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from recent updates from Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs in the field of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>In his suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that my country has made key breakthroughs in the core technologies of bionic humanoid robots, but still faces challenges such as the need to improve the performance of core components, insufficient application demand, lack of large-scale mass production capabilities, and an unsound application ecosystem and supporting system.</p><p>Therefore, he suggested: encouraging and supporting the science and technology innovation industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry; Support machine manufacturers to take the lead in creating national innovation consortia and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecosystem for bionic humanoid robots and accelerate the cultivation of application scenarios.</p><p>Last June, driven by Musk's announcement that he would launch a humanoid robot, the concept of bionic humanoid robots became a hot topic in the domestic capital market, and this sub-sector also became the hottest track in the robotics industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi unveiled its prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"CyberOne\") at Lei Jun's annual keynote speech before Tesla, and this enthusiasm reached its peak.</p><p>Xiaomi's CyberOne is not a PowerPoint presentation or a prop; it's a handheld prototype that can interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of each CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan, making it impossible to achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that shaped bionic robots had the highest degree of technological integration and the greatest difficulty, and Xiaomi was still in its early stages.</p><p>Turning its attention overseas, Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus, unveiled at last year's AI Day, also failed to meet its previously claimed standards. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk yet, but I think it will in a few weeks.\"</p><p>Musk previously made a bold statement: the target price of Optimus Prime Optimus may be less than $20,000, and more than a million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed recent progress on Optimus Prime at Tesla's investor day: \"It's not working properly, but things are getting better.\"</p><p>Tesla continues to increase its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology discovered that Tesla China recently released job postings for robotics positions, including Automation Control Engineer (Robotics) and Electrical Design Engineer - Robotics Development and Applications.</p><p>The prospects offered by the institution are very attractive. Global market research firm Marketsandmarkets predicts that the global humanoid robot market will grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to $17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots have the potential to become another entry point after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>However, it is undeniable that the bionic humanoid robot industry is one that requires long-term investment.</p><p>In China, there are still many realities facing this track that must be addressed, such as core components, robot underlying operating systems and chips, and system design software.</p><p><b>Billions of yuan fund focuses on the integrated circuit industry chain</b></p><p>After raising over 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Yuan Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2, Kingsoft announced that its subsidiaries, including Wuhan Kingsoft, Xiaomi Beijing, and Xiaomi Wuhan, have entered into partnership agreements with other investors to establish an equity investment fund in the integrated circuit-related field, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Lei Jun's Xiaomi and Kingsoft, the fund's LPs also include Beijing Municipal Guidance Fund and Yizhuang State-owned Investment, which are backed by Beijing state-owned assets, Tianjin Haichuang, which is owned by Tianjin state-owned assets Beijing, as well as Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Xingzheng Investment, and GigaDevice.</p><p>Compared to its initial fundraising in July last year, the fund has five new faces: Wuhan Kingsoft, Beijing Guidance Fund, Naxing Venture Capital, Di'ao Microelectronics, and CITIC Haohong. The fund's size has also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in its initial financing to 9.03 billion yuan, approaching the target size of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to business registration information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing\"). It was registered and established on September 18, 2021, and the filing was completed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the fund's purpose, Kingsoft stated that it primarily engages in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in non-listed companies.</p><p>The main targets are integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors, covering next-generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, and upstream and downstream applications and supply chains related to mobile terminal consumer goods and smart devices.</p><p>It is not difficult to see from this that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current businesses of mobile phones and automobiles. For a long time, most of Xiaomi's investments have revolved around its main business and future development direction, focusing on technological upgrades and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, automobiles, and semiconductors.</p><p>Since announcing its car manufacturing strategy, Xiaomi has been expanding into several companies related to the automotive industry chain through investment and equity investment. According to previous statistics from Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi had invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of intelligent vehicles, including 17 companies in intelligent driving, 13 companies in intelligent electric vehicles, and 6 companies in intelligent cockpits. Among them, 22 companies were newly invested in in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investments were completed through the Xiaomi Yangtze River Industry Investment Fund. After its establishment, Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing focused more on collaborative investment in Xiaomi's automotive business.</p><p>Public information shows that Xiaomi Smart Manufacturing currently has more than ten external investment projects, all of which involve the automotive industry chain, including multiple links such as semiconductors, power batteries, and core equipment parts.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's investment in the upstream and downstream sectors of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as his previous investment in Xiaomi's ecosystem. This will help it further enhance its vertical integration capabilities in the vehicle business and ensure the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320\">全天候科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb44f0df3fb7312ee913474e800cc495","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154440961","content_text":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。近日，雷军将“供应链”的故事讲上了“两会”。2023年，作为全国人大代表的雷军准备了3份建议案，其中一份关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展。雷军建议，鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局。同样在这个月，“小米百亿基金”开展了第二轮融资，募资规模已从去年60多亿增至90多亿元。而这支基金的投资目标着重于集成电路以及相关上游及下游领域。小米关于供应链的故事已取得阶段性进展。国金证券此前统计数据显示，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家。一直以来，“性价比”是小米身上最深的标签。这也成为小米被外界诟病“自研技术能力不足”的原因。而对上游核心供应链企业或技术企业的投资，表明小米希望强供应链话语权的决心。供应链布局的开启，是雷军和小米试图抓住市场机遇的一次蓄力与尝试。雷军的新故事能否讲成？为人形机器人产业链“发声”去年8月亮相之后，有关小米仿生人形机器人CyberOne的消息一直不多。不过最近从小米传出的动态来看，雷军希望能在仿生人形机器人这个赛道上有更多的突破。在关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展的建议中，雷军认为，目前我国在仿生人形机器人核心技术方面已取得关键突破，但仍然面临核心部组件性能有待提升、应用需求牵引不足、不具备规模化量产能力、应用生态和配套支撑体系不健全等挑战。为此，他建议：鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局；支持整机企业牵头创建国家创新联合体，加强核心技术联合攻关；构建仿生人形机器人开放产业生态，加速场景应用培育。去年6月，在马斯克“将推出人形机器人”效应下，仿生人形机器人相关概念成为国内资本市场上的热门概念，这个细分赛道也成为机器人行业最热的赛道。两个月后，小米先于特斯拉在雷军年度演讲会上发布原型仿生机器人CyberOne（内部艺名“铁大”），这股热情也随之达到峰值。小米推出的CyberOne不是PPT，也不是道具，是可以拿出手的原型机，能与人进行互动。遗憾的是，CyberOne的成本每台高达六、七十万元，尚无法实现量产。彼时，雷军坦承，形仿生机器人的技术集成度最高、难度也最大，小米还处于刚刚起步的第一阶段。将视线转向国外，特斯拉在去年AI Day上发布的人形机器人擎天柱Optimus，同样没有达到此前宣称的水平。用马斯克的话来说，“它还没有完全准备好走路，但我认为它会在几周内走路。”马斯克此前放出豪言：擎天柱Optimus的目标价格可能低于2万美元，还要量产百万台之上。然而，马斯克在特斯拉投资者日上透露了擎天柱Optimus的最近进展：“无法正常工作，不过情况正在好转。”特斯拉仍在不断加大关于人形机器人的投入。全天候科技发现，特斯拉中国近期发布了机器人方向的岗位招聘信息，包括自动化控制工程师（机器人）、电气设计工程师-机器人开发及其应用方向。机构给出的前景很诱人。全球市场研究机构Marketsandmarkets预测，全球人形机器人市场规模将从2022年的15亿美元提升至2027年的173亿美元。民生证券认为，人形机器人有望成为继手机、汽车后的又一入口，商业价值巨大。但不可否认，仿生人形机器人赛道是一个需要长期投入的赛道。就国内而言，摆在这条赛道面前且不得不解决的现实还不少，如核心零部件、机器人底层操作系统与芯片、系统设计软件等。百亿基金聚焦集成电路产业链在去年首次募资超60亿元后，“小米百亿基金”在这个月又展开了第二轮融资。3月2日，金山软件公告称，公司附属公司武汉金山、小米北京、小米武汉等，与其他投资者订立合伙协议，内容有关成立集成电路相关领域股权投资基金，预期总规模100亿元。除雷军系的小米、金山外，该基金LP还包含北京国资背景的北京市引导基金、亦庄国投，天津国资北京的天津海创，以及海南华盈开泰、广州华多、兴证投资、兆易创新等。相较去年7月首次募资，该基金多5位新面孔：武汉金山、北京市引导基金、纳星创投、帝奥微、信银浩鸿。基金规模也从首次融资的63.3亿元增至90.3亿元，接近百亿目标规模。工商信息显示，该基金全名为：北京小米智造股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“小米智造”），2021年9月18日注册成立，2022年4月6日完成备案。对于该基金的作用，金山软件称：主要从事股权投资或准股权投资，或对非上市公司进行投资相关活动。主要对象便是集成电路，以及相关上游及下游领域，涵盖新一代信息科技、 智能制造、新材料、人工智能、显示器及显示装置、汽车电子，以及有关移动终端消费品、智能装置的上游及下游应用及供应链。从中不难发现，这些与小米当前业务手机、汽车密切相关。一直以来，小米的大部分投资业务基本围绕其主营业务和未来发展方向，进行技术提升和产业链布局，例如人工智能、物联网、汽车和半导体等。自宣布造车以来，小米就通过投资及入股等方式，布局多家汽车产业链相关企业。据国金证券此前统计，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家，其中智能驾驶布局17家企业，智能电动布局13家企业，智能座舱布局6家企业，当中有22家企业是2021年新增投资。此前，小米多数半导体投资动作是通过小米长江产业投资基金完成的。小米智造成立后，其更聚焦小米汽车业务协同投资方向。公开信息显示，小米智造目前对外投资的十余个项目，均涉及汽车产业链，包括汽车产业链半导体、动力电池、核心设备零件等多个环节。有行业人士分析认为，雷军布局集成电路产业上下游领域，与此前布局小米生态链如出一辙。这有利于其进一步提升整车业务的垂直整合能力，保障汽车关键零部件和软件系统供应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533102,"gmtCreate":1678019336606,"gmtModify":1678019340244,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533102","repostId":"2317152105","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533357,"gmtCreate":1678019323780,"gmtModify":1678019326433,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533357","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, popular in China, are gradually expanding their market share in the US and Japanese automotive markets.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually increases, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also gradually coming into people's view and becoming the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. Technological advancements have also improved battery capacity, thereby extending the original driving range. In recent years, they have become very popular among automakers.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the electric vehicle battery capacity sold in China. In the United States, this figure was only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But this trend is about to change—all signs indicate that this battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle market in the United States and Japan and seizing market share from traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States has launched a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.</h2>Recently, startup Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after its new $1.6 billion factory goes into operation next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux stated,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly sparked a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is beginning to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that...<b>All major automakers will prefer to use this battery in entry-level electric vehicles; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36% of the market share of pure electric vehicle batteries in 2025, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery startup Kore Power also predicts that demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The company's plant, scheduled to open in Arizona by the end of 2024, will have two assembly lines: one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American car manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>They are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford Motor Company announced that the two companies will jointly build a new power battery plant in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to $3.5 billion in the new plant. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license its battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the entire vehicle, and some of the equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter the Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The battery factory will have an annual production capacity of 5 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households for a day.</p><p>The project is led by PowerX, a renewable energy startup founded in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As its driving force, PowerX has turned its attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries, rather than the current mainstream product of stationary batteries—ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at its new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging stations in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese enterprises accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies hold an overwhelming advantage in the automotive battery sector, which is the main battleground.</p><p>Data from South Korea's SNE survey shows that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>CATL ranks first, and CATL ranks second.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The top two spots are both occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten companies in terms of global market share, six are Chinese, with a total market share exceeding 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China is also leading other countries in the world in terms of the speed of expansion of the electric vehicle market. Since 2010, China has issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and provided preferential treatment in areas such as the location of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, CATL of China, the world's largest automotive battery company, is also at the forefront.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that a single charge of the company's battery can enable a pure electric vehicle to travel more than 700 kilometers. CATL will launch its \"M3P\" battery, which is an improved version of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in 2023. Its driving range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion battery, and are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Prior to this, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not very popular in the United States because they had worse battery life than batteries such as NMC, but they could be charged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said that range is considered too important for American drivers to sacrifice for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have suggested that you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is...<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, the cost of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt is also rising.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also surged. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where working conditions are extremely harsh. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to levels about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery,\" the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are evident.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has become cheaper in the United States.</b>Furthermore, driven by federal government subsidies, the widespread adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, potentially reducing drivers' concerns about battery life. From a safety perspective, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>RISK WARNING AND DISCLAIMER</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, popular in China, are gradually expanding their market share in the US and Japanese automotive markets.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually increases, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also gradually coming into people's view and becoming the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. Technological advancements have also improved battery capacity, thereby extending the original driving range. In recent years, they have become very popular among automakers.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the electric vehicle battery capacity sold in China. In the United States, this figure was only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But this trend is about to change—all signs indicate that this battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle market in the United States and Japan and seizing market share from traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States has launched a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.</h2>Recently, startup Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after its new $1.6 billion factory goes into operation next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux stated,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly sparked a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is beginning to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that...<b>All major automakers will prefer to use this battery in entry-level electric vehicles; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36% of the market share of pure electric vehicle batteries in 2025, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery startup Kore Power also predicts that demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The company's plant, scheduled to open in Arizona by the end of 2024, will have two assembly lines: one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American car manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>They are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford Motor Company announced that the two companies will jointly build a new power battery plant in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to $3.5 billion in the new plant. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license its battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the entire vehicle, and some of the equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter the Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The battery factory will have an annual production capacity of 5 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households for a day.</p><p>The project is led by PowerX, a renewable energy startup founded in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As its driving force, PowerX has turned its attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries, rather than the current mainstream product of stationary batteries—ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at its new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging stations in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese enterprises accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies hold an overwhelming advantage in the automotive battery sector, which is the main battleground.</p><p>Data from South Korea's SNE survey shows that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>CATL ranks first, and CATL ranks second.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The top two spots are both occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten companies in terms of global market share, six are Chinese, with a total market share exceeding 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China is also leading other countries in the world in terms of the speed of expansion of the electric vehicle market. Since 2010, China has issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and provided preferential treatment in areas such as the location of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, CATL of China, the world's largest automotive battery company, is also at the forefront.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that a single charge of the company's battery can enable a pure electric vehicle to travel more than 700 kilometers. CATL will launch its \"M3P\" battery, which is an improved version of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in 2023. Its driving range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion battery, and are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Prior to this, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not very popular in the United States because they had worse battery life than batteries such as NMC, but they could be charged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said that range is considered too important for American drivers to sacrifice for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have suggested that you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is...<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, the cost of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt is also rising.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also surged. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where working conditions are extremely harsh. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to levels about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery,\" the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are evident.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has become cheaper in the United States.</b>Furthermore, driven by federal government subsidies, the widespread adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, potentially reducing drivers' concerns about battery life. From a safety perspective, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>RISK WARNING AND DISCLAIMER</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533953,"gmtCreate":1678019317273,"gmtModify":1678019321152,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533953","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, popular in China, are gradually expanding their market share in the US and Japanese automotive markets.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually increases, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also gradually coming into people's view and becoming the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. Technological advancements have also improved battery capacity, thereby extending the original driving range. In recent years, they have become very popular among automakers.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the electric vehicle battery capacity sold in China. In the United States, this figure was only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But this trend is about to change—all signs indicate that this battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle market in the United States and Japan and seizing market share from traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States has launched a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.</h2>Recently, startup Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after its new $1.6 billion factory goes into operation next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux stated,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly sparked a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is beginning to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that...<b>All major automakers will prefer to use this battery in entry-level electric vehicles; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36% of the market share of pure electric vehicle batteries in 2025, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery startup Kore Power also predicts that demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The company's plant, scheduled to open in Arizona by the end of 2024, will have two assembly lines: one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American car manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>They are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford Motor Company announced that the two companies will jointly build a new power battery plant in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to $3.5 billion in the new plant. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license its battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the entire vehicle, and some of the equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter the Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The battery factory will have an annual production capacity of 5 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households for a day.</p><p>The project is led by PowerX, a renewable energy startup founded in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As its driving force, PowerX has turned its attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries, rather than the current mainstream product of stationary batteries—ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at its new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging stations in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese enterprises accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies hold an overwhelming advantage in the automotive battery sector, which is the main battleground.</p><p>Data from South Korea's SNE survey shows that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>CATL ranks first, and CATL ranks second.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The top two spots are both occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten companies in terms of global market share, six are Chinese, with a total market share exceeding 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China is also leading other countries in the world in terms of the speed of expansion of the electric vehicle market. Since 2010, China has issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and provided preferential treatment in areas such as the location of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, CATL of China, the world's largest automotive battery company, is also at the forefront.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that a single charge of the company's battery can enable a pure electric vehicle to travel more than 700 kilometers. CATL will launch its \"M3P\" battery, which is an improved version of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in 2023. Its driving range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion battery, and are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Prior to this, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not very popular in the United States because they had worse battery life than batteries such as NMC, but they could be charged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said that range is considered too important for American drivers to sacrifice for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have suggested that you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is...<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, the cost of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt is also rising.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also surged. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where working conditions are extremely harsh. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to levels about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery,\" the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are evident.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has become cheaper in the United States.</b>Furthermore, driven by federal government subsidies, the widespread adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, potentially reducing drivers' concerns about battery life. From a safety perspective, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>RISK WARNING AND DISCLAIMER</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, popular in China, are gradually expanding their market share in the US and Japanese automotive markets.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually increases, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also gradually coming into people's view and becoming the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. Technological advancements have also improved battery capacity, thereby extending the original driving range. In recent years, they have become very popular among automakers.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the electric vehicle battery capacity sold in China. In the United States, this figure was only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But this trend is about to change—all signs indicate that this battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle market in the United States and Japan and seizing market share from traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States has launched a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.</h2>Recently, startup Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after its new $1.6 billion factory goes into operation next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux stated,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly sparked a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is beginning to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that...<b>All major automakers will prefer to use this battery in entry-level electric vehicles; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36% of the market share of pure electric vehicle batteries in 2025, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery startup Kore Power also predicts that demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The company's plant, scheduled to open in Arizona by the end of 2024, will have two assembly lines: one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American car manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>They are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford Motor Company announced that the two companies will jointly build a new power battery plant in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to $3.5 billion in the new plant. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license its battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the entire vehicle, and some of the equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter the Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The battery factory will have an annual production capacity of 5 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households for a day.</p><p>The project is led by PowerX, a renewable energy startup founded in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As its driving force, PowerX has turned its attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries, rather than the current mainstream product of stationary batteries—ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at its new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging stations in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese enterprises accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies hold an overwhelming advantage in the automotive battery sector, which is the main battleground.</p><p>Data from South Korea's SNE survey shows that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>CATL ranks first, and CATL ranks second.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The top two spots are both occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten companies in terms of global market share, six are Chinese, with a total market share exceeding 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China is also leading other countries in the world in terms of the speed of expansion of the electric vehicle market. Since 2010, China has issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and provided preferential treatment in areas such as the location of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, CATL of China, the world's largest automotive battery company, is also at the forefront.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that a single charge of the company's battery can enable a pure electric vehicle to travel more than 700 kilometers. CATL will launch its \"M3P\" battery, which is an improved version of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in 2023. Its driving range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion battery, and are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Prior to this, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not very popular in the United States because they had worse battery life than batteries such as NMC, but they could be charged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said that range is considered too important for American drivers to sacrifice for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have suggested that you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is...<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, the cost of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt is also rising.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also surged. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where working conditions are extremely harsh. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to levels about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery,\" the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are evident.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has become cheaper in the United States.</b>Furthermore, driven by federal government subsidies, the widespread adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, potentially reducing drivers' concerns about battery life. From a safety perspective, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>RISK WARNING AND DISCLAIMER</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940214961,"gmtCreate":1677945142254,"gmtModify":1677945145645,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940214961","repostId":"2316133358","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940165254,"gmtCreate":1677758940478,"gmtModify":1677758943236,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940165254","repostId":"1104041863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104041863","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1677758577,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1104041863?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-02 20:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-over-year, and its fiscal year 2024 performance guidance fell short of expectations.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104041863","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月2日，百思买公布了2023财年第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，百思买Q4营收同比下降10%至147.35亿美元，略好于市场预期的147.2亿美元;净利润为4.95亿美元，上年同期为6.26亿美元","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>March 2nd,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBY\">Best Buy</a>The company announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2023. Financial reports show that Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-over-year to $14.735 billion, slightly better than the market expectation of $14.72 billion; Net profit was $495 million, compared to $626 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; Adjusted earnings per share were $2.61, better than the market expectation of $2.10, compared to $2.73 in the same period last year.</p><p>Q4 gross profit was $2.94 billion, compared to $3.313 billion in the same period last year; The gross profit margin was 20.0%, compared to 20.2% in the same period of the previous year. Operating profit was $597 million, compared to $803 million in the same period last year; The operating profit margin was 4.1%, compared to 4.9% in the same period of the previous year.</p><p>By business segment, domestic business revenue was US$13.531 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, mainly due to a 9.6% year-on-year decrease in comparable sales; Among them, the decline in comparable sales of computers, home theaters, home appliances and mobile phones was the biggest driver, offsetting the growth in comparable sales of gaming and tablets. International business revenue was US$1.204 billion, a 12% year-over-year decrease, primarily due to a 5.7% year-over-year decrease in comparable sales and the negative impact of foreign exchange rates of approximately 570 basis points.</p><p>For the full fiscal year 2023, Best Buy's revenue was $46.298 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 11%; Net profit was $1.419 billion, compared to $2.454 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 42%; Adjusted earnings per share were $7.08, compared to $10.01 in the same period last year.</p><p>Looking ahead, Best Buy projects full-year revenue of $43.8 billion to $45.2 billion for fiscal year 2024, falling short of analysts' expectations of $45.69 billion. Comparable sales are expected to decline by 3.0%-6.0% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.7% year-on-year decline; Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $5.70 and $6.50, missing analysts' expectations of $6.72. \"As we enter fiscal year 2024, the consumer electronics industry will continue to feel broader macroeconomic headwinds and their impact on consumers,\" said Matt Bilunas, the company's CEO.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bec2d0a3740885a4b9a40fbaf735192\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"869\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Following the earnings report, Best Buy shares fell as much as 3.6% in pre-market trading, but have now narrowed to 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebae3d342481c8a53cb5dcdda7c3bc2\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-over-year, and its fiscal year 2024 performance guidance fell short of expectations.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-over-year, and its fiscal year 2024 performance guidance fell short of expectations.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-02 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>March 2nd,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBY\">Best Buy</a>The company announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of fiscal year 2023. Financial reports show that Best Buy's Q4 revenue fell 10% year-over-year to $14.735 billion, slightly better than the market expectation of $14.72 billion; Net profit was $495 million, compared to $626 million in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 21%; Adjusted earnings per share were $2.61, better than the market expectation of $2.10, compared to $2.73 in the same period last year.</p><p>Q4 gross profit was $2.94 billion, compared to $3.313 billion in the same period last year; The gross profit margin was 20.0%, compared to 20.2% in the same period of the previous year. Operating profit was $597 million, compared to $803 million in the same period last year; The operating profit margin was 4.1%, compared to 4.9% in the same period of the previous year.</p><p>By business segment, domestic business revenue was US$13.531 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, mainly due to a 9.6% year-on-year decrease in comparable sales; Among them, the decline in comparable sales of computers, home theaters, home appliances and mobile phones was the biggest driver, offsetting the growth in comparable sales of gaming and tablets. International business revenue was US$1.204 billion, a 12% year-over-year decrease, primarily due to a 5.7% year-over-year decrease in comparable sales and the negative impact of foreign exchange rates of approximately 570 basis points.</p><p>For the full fiscal year 2023, Best Buy's revenue was $46.298 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 11%; Net profit was $1.419 billion, compared to $2.454 billion in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 42%; Adjusted earnings per share were $7.08, compared to $10.01 in the same period last year.</p><p>Looking ahead, Best Buy projects full-year revenue of $43.8 billion to $45.2 billion for fiscal year 2024, falling short of analysts' expectations of $45.69 billion. Comparable sales are expected to decline by 3.0%-6.0% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.7% year-on-year decline; Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $5.70 and $6.50, missing analysts' expectations of $6.72. \"As we enter fiscal year 2024, the consumer electronics industry will continue to feel broader macroeconomic headwinds and their impact on consumers,\" said Matt Bilunas, the company's CEO.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bec2d0a3740885a4b9a40fbaf735192\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"869\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Following the earnings report, Best Buy shares fell as much as 3.6% in pre-market trading, but have now narrowed to 1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebae3d342481c8a53cb5dcdda7c3bc2\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b2c0949e3b18adb17e6e40d830d4d9","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4567":"ESG概念","BBY":"百思买","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104041863","content_text":"3月2日，百思买公布了2023财年第四季度及全年财务业绩。财报显示，百思买Q4营收同比下降10%至147.35亿美元，略好于市场预期的147.2亿美元;净利润为4.95亿美元，上年同期为6.26亿美元，同比下降21%;调整后每股收益为2.61美元，好于市场预期的2.10美元，上年同期为2.73美元。Q4毛利润为29.40亿美元，上年同期为33.13亿美元;毛利率为20.0%，上年同期为20.2%。运营利润为5.97亿美元，上年同期为8.03亿美元;运营利润率为4.1%，上年同期为4.9%。按业务划分，国内业务营收为135.31亿美元，同比下降9.8%，主要原因是可比销售额同比下降9.6%;其中，电脑、家庭影院、家电和移动电话的可比销售额下滑是最大驱动因素，抵消了游戏和平板电脑类别可比销售额的增长。国际业务营收为12.04亿美元，同比下降12%，这主要归因于可比销售额同比下降5.7%、以及外汇汇率约570个基点的负面影响。2023财年全年，百思买营收为462.98亿美元，同比下降11%;净利润为14.19亿美元，上年同期为24.54亿美元，同比下降42%;调整后每股收益为7.08美元，上年同期为10.01美元。展望未来，百思买预计，2024财年全年营收为438亿-452亿美元，不及分析师预期的456.9亿美元;预计可比销售额将同比下降3.0%-6.0%，高于分析师预期的同比下降1.7%;预计调整后每股收益为5.70-6.50美元，不及分析师预期的6.72美元。该公司首席执行官Matt Bilunas表示：“随着我们进入2024财年，消费电子行业将继续感受到更广泛的宏观经济逆风及其对消费者的影响。”财报公布后，百思买盘前一度跌3.6%，现收窄至1%","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940956349,"gmtCreate":1677662739182,"gmtModify":1677671507968,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4093128510785090","authorIdStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940956349","repostId":"2316958326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9096255851,"gmtCreate":1644408027408,"gmtModify":1676533922187,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9096255851","repostId":"1196471828","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1196471828","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644395848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196471828?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-09 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196471828","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfol","content":"<div>\n<p>Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Buy in Q1\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-09 16:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GE":"GE航空航天","ORA":"奥玛特科技","RUN":"Sunrun Inc.","FSLR":"第一太阳能","ED":"爱迪生联合电气","NEE":"新纪元能源"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/7-best-renewable-energy-stocks-to-buy-in-q1-run-fslr-ed-nee-ora-ay-ge/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196471828","content_text":"Renewable energy stocks haven’t had a great 12 months. In a broad example, the Invesco Solar Portfolio ETF has lost nearly half of its value over the past year.Two major factors have contributed to the decline in value for many renewable energy stocks. For one, the wind and solar industries haven’t received the sorts of subsidies that traders were hoping for from the Biden Administration.For another, many green energy companies don’t generate much in the way of near-term profits or cash flows. Thus, they’ve gotten caught up in the broad market-based selling around all sorts of speculative growth companies.It’s certainly not all blue skies ahead for the renewable energy industry. Shortcomings — particularly as it relates to lack of storage capacity — have become painfully apparent in recent months.Look at thespiraling electricity crisisthis winter in Europe for one example. Still, after seeing many renewable energy stocks drop by 50% or more, it’s time to take a fresh look.Here are seven names that could stand out, even during this volatile period for the renewable energy industry:SunrunFirst SolarNextEraConsolidated EdisonOrmat TechnologiesAtlantica Sustainable InfrastructureGeneral ElectricSunrunSource: IgorGolovniov / Shutterstock.comSolar energy stocks were blazing hot at the beginning of the Biden Administration. Between the November 2020 election and Inauguration Day 2021, the price of Sunrun stock soared almost 52%.Particularly with Democrats in control of the House of Representatives and Senate, in addition to the presidency, a robust era of clean energy spending was supposed to commence.However, there’s been limited legislative traction for green energy. Much of Washington D.C.’s attention has understandably turned to more immediate issues such as dealing with the societal and economic impacts of the Covid-19 crisis.Attempts at a grand series of Build Back Better infrastructure bills have gotten pruned down to a much-smaller package.This has hit the solar industry hard with smaller, more-speculative names like SunRun getting walloped. RUN stock is down nearly 70% over the past year.Sunrun operates in the home solar space and has shown incredible growth — north of 30% — despite already having a large installed base.However, Sunrun has gotten hit on all fronts. The lack of expected subsidy support has dimmed near-term expectations. Meanwhile, supply chain and inflation issues are a threat to crush profit margins.In addition, the company borrowed heavily during brighter times and now faces growing investor skepticism around its balance sheet.There’s plenty of risk at SunRun to be sure. However, with the stock down from a 52-week high of $85 to just $25 now, RUN stock is one of the highest-voltage ways to get exposure to a potential solar industry rebound.FirstSolarSource: IgorGolovniov / Shutterstock.comFirst Solar is a more conservative way to play the solar industry. It is one of the leading manufacturers of panels.It’s not nearly as much of a growth play as something like Sunrun. However, it’s actually highly profitable, which is something of a rarity in the solar industry at the moment.The company will have earned roughly $3.50 per share for full-year 2021 once it announces results later this month. That will put the stock around 20x full-year 2021 earnings.Analysts see First Solar’s earnings dropping in 2022. After that, however, the consensus has 2023 earnings recovering to 2021 levels, giving First Solar a solid base of profitability in the intermediate term.Some of First Solar’s strategic advantage is due to using a differentiated technology for making its panels as opposed to commodity producers overseas.Another element of its success came from the Trump Administration’s move to slap tariffs on imported solar panels. Biden’s team recently announced that it will easebut not altogether eliminatethese tariffs.That’s an additional win for First Solar, which has invested heavily in its Ohio-based manufacturing facilities.NextEraSource: madamF / Shutterstock.comAnother way to get involved in the renewable energy wave is through power utilities. Not all utilities have a strong renewable energy angle. A few stand out, however. Florida-based NextEra is one of the leaders in solar power deployment nationally.It does have a traditional regulated utility business that offers stable predictable cash flows.Where things get more exciting is with its separate arm in the construction and design of large-scale renewable power projects around the country. This gives NextEra an attractive source of additional income.These development projects tend to be in a competitive market and thus can earn higher returns on equity than traditional utility power where returns are generally set by state regulators.Additionally, NextEra has benefited in a huge way from passive index fund flows. NextEra scores highly on environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards and thus is a leading investment for many funds in the socially-conscious, green, and millennial categories.As more and more money floods into these ESG-type investments, NextEra should be one of the largest recipients of these inflows.Consolidated EdisonSource: Pand P Studio / Shutterstock.comConsolidated Edison is another of the pioneers in the renewable utility space. The New York City power company is one of the world’s oldest power utilities.Even with its storied history, it has managed to keep up with the times. Indeed, today, it’s now the second-largest operator of utility-scale solar power in the U.S.That’s good in its own right. Given the political climate on the East Coast, the renewable focus is particularly useful. ConEd is already ahead of the curve in terms of upping its investments in green energy while other utilities will have to rush to meet phase-outs around the use of dirtier fuels.\\From an investor’s perspective, ConEd is a classic growth and income holding. The company has increased its dividend for 48 years in a row, making it one of the few Dividend Aristocrats in the power utility sector. ED stock has delivered steadily rising dividends and some capital appreciation for decades, and its quick adoption of renewables should keep that streak going for many years to come.Ormat TechnologiesSource: riekephotos / Shutterstock.comOrmat Technologies is the global leader in geothermal power generation. The company was founded way back in 1965 and has developed more than 190 power plants over the decades. It has been in the green energy game for a long time, giving it a level of domain expertise and cyclical knowledge that most newer rivals don’t yet possess.For a long time, analysts viewed geothermal as a fringe alternative in the power generation business. However, it has really had its moment to shine over the past few years. That’s due to geothermal’s much higher reliability. Geothermal is almost always available, making it a baseload generator that doesn’t experience the sorts of drastic fluctuations in supply that you see with wind or solar.Sure, geothermal has drawbacks. It is often in remote locations, costs can be somewhat unattractive at times, and it’s harder to build at vast scale compared to other alternatives. However, in a world that is rapidly discovering some drawbacks with intermittent green power sources, geothermal has carved out a solid space for itself.Ormat in particular is profitable and has an attractive business outlook. ORA stock was fairly quiet between the mid-2000s and 2015. However, since then, shares as much as quintupled before hitting their peak in 2021. Since then, like so many growth stocks, Ormat’s shares have sharply from their peak. However, the long-term trajectory should keep pointing upward.Atlantica Sustainable InfrastructureSource: Chart by Josh EnomotoOne of the more interesting trends in natural resources of the past decade has been royalty companies. Specialty finance firms will provide financing to an oil & gas or mining company, and, in return, get a stream of mineral production once the project comes online.Atlantica is offering investors a similar sort of structure in the renewable energy space. It finances renewable energy projects that are set to be built. After the renewable power generation asset is up and running, Atlantica offloads energy to end purchasers and gets to keep a favorable spread. This gives investors a royalty structure that should deliver steadier returns and a solid dividend from what has historically been a volatile industry.Atlantica does have some other assets as well, namely investments in water, transmission lines, and natural gas. However, roughly 75% of its assets are in renewables such as wind and geothermal. AY stock currently offers a 5.5% dividend yield, making it an interest choice for green energy investors that also want some immediate income.General ElectricSource: testing / Shutterstock.comFinally, for investors that want a broader industrial play with emphasis on green energy exposure, don’t forget about GE.General Electric has been on a multi-year journey to turn its business around and rectify the errors of past management teams. This transformation continues at aggressive speed under star CEO Larry Culp. GE is unloading its large aircraft leasing business and has several more asset divestures and spins on the way.It’s a complicated company, and the name GE leaves many investors with a bad taste. However, operating results are picking up steam and analysts see it as quite cheap. Morningstar’s Joshua Aguilar currently pegsfair value at $133versus a current share price around $100. That’s an attractive discount, and GE stock gives investors exposure to solid power assets such as its wind turbines and power grid systems solutions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NEE":0.9,"RUN":0.9,"FSLR":0.9,"ORA":0.9,"GE":0.9,"ED":0.9,"AY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9078099688,"gmtCreate":1657591568644,"gmtModify":1676536031497,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"no","listText":"no","text":"no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9078099688","repostId":"2250956995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2250956995","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657586328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250956995?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-12 08:38","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Bearish sentiment is overflowing! US reverse leveraged ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.4 billion.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250956995","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，由于衰退风险和对二季度财报季的悲观预期，市场看空情绪加剧，交易员纷纷涌入做空美股的交易所交易基金。最近一个交易日，ProShares三倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF净流入2.475. ProShares三倍做空标普500ETF的资产规模达16亿美元，自6月初以来资产规模大约翻了一番。投资者已连续12个交易日向该基金注入大量资金，在此期间累计流入8.75亿美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Zhitong Finance APP, due to recession risks and pessimistic expectations for the second-quarter earnings season, market bearish sentiment has intensified, leading traders to flock to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that short US stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETFs</a>)。</p><p>In the most recent trading day, ProShares tripled its short position on the Nasdaq Index ETF (SQQQ.US), resulting in a net inflow of $247.5 million. This is the fund's largest single-day net inflow in more than a month, and the fourth consecutive day of inflows, with a total inflow of approximately $518 million. The fund is betting on shorting the Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks.</p><p>The bearish targets are not limited to technology stocks. ProShares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPXU\">Triple short S&P 500 ETF</a>(SPXU.US) has assets of $1.6 billion, roughly doubling since early June. Investors have poured a large amount of money into the fund for 12 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative inflow of $875 million during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c496bfba470ff9a017dba173c16989\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SQQQ seeks an investment return equivalent to three times the inverse day performance of the Nasdaq 100 index. The Nasdaq 100 has fallen about 27% this year as rising interest rates have dampened the growth prospects of tech stocks, while the SQQQ has surged more than 77%. The SPXU, which tracks the S&P 500's triple reverse daily performance, has risen 53% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has fallen 19%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers Securities</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick stated that bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, adding, \"It would be wise to believe that aggressive traders will shift their focus to hedging or speculating on declines.\"</p><p>Reaching multi-decade highs in U.S. inflation, a wave of monetary tightening, and the risk of a global economic slowdown have all kept investors bearish on the stock market, despite the evaporation of $18 trillion in global stock markets in the first half of this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The chief U.S. equity strategist predicts that the S&P 500 could fall to 3,000 points in a recession, a 22% drop from current levels.</p><p>\"Buying on dips hasn't worked,\" said Sosnick of Interactive Brokers. \"When it does, it's usually for a very short period of time.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bearish sentiment is overflowing! US reverse leveraged ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.4 billion.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBearish sentiment is overflowing! US reverse leveraged ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.4 billion.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-12 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Zhitong Finance APP, due to recession risks and pessimistic expectations for the second-quarter earnings season, market bearish sentiment has intensified, leading traders to flock to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that short US stocks.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETFs</a>)。</p><p>In the most recent trading day, ProShares tripled its short position on the Nasdaq Index ETF (SQQQ.US), resulting in a net inflow of $247.5 million. This is the fund's largest single-day net inflow in more than a month, and the fourth consecutive day of inflows, with a total inflow of approximately $518 million. The fund is betting on shorting the Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks.</p><p>The bearish targets are not limited to technology stocks. ProShares<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPXU\">Triple short S&P 500 ETF</a>(SPXU.US) has assets of $1.6 billion, roughly doubling since early June. Investors have poured a large amount of money into the fund for 12 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative inflow of $875 million during this period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90c496bfba470ff9a017dba173c16989\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SQQQ seeks an investment return equivalent to three times the inverse day performance of the Nasdaq 100 index. The Nasdaq 100 has fallen about 27% this year as rising interest rates have dampened the growth prospects of tech stocks, while the SQQQ has surged more than 77%. The SPXU, which tracks the S&P 500's triple reverse daily performance, has risen 53% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has fallen 19%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">Interactive Brokers Securities</a>Chief strategist Steve Sosnick stated that bearish sentiment in the market has intensified, adding, \"It would be wise to believe that aggressive traders will shift their focus to hedging or speculating on declines.\"</p><p>Reaching multi-decade highs in U.S. inflation, a wave of monetary tightening, and the risk of a global economic slowdown have all kept investors bearish on the stock market, despite the evaporation of $18 trillion in global stock markets in the first half of this year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>The chief U.S. equity strategist predicts that the S&P 500 could fall to 3,000 points in a recession, a 22% drop from current levels.</p><p>\"Buying on dips hasn't worked,\" said Sosnick of Interactive Brokers. \"When it does, it's usually for a very short period of time.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/753339.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd5271ba4885dabd7633b23dfb3304b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","03086":"华夏纳指","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","IBKR":"盈透证券","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/753339.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2250956995","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，由于衰退风险和对二季度财报季的悲观预期，市场看空情绪加剧，交易员纷纷涌入做空美股的交易所交易基金(Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF)。最近一个交易日，ProShares三倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF(SQQQ.US)净流入2.475亿美元。这是该基金一个多月来最大的单日资金净流入，也是连续第四天资金流入，流入总额约为5.18亿美元。该基金押注做空科技股占主导地位的纳斯达克100指数。看跌的对象不仅仅是科技股。ProShares三倍做空标普500ETF(SPXU.US)的资产规模达16亿美元，自6月初以来资产规模大约翻了一番。投资者已连续12个交易日向该基金注入大量资金，在此期间累计流入8.75亿美元。SQQQ寻求的投资回报相当于纳斯达克100指数反向日表现的三倍。由于利率上升打击了科技股的增长前景，纳斯达克100指数今年以来下跌了约27%，而SQQQ则飙升了77%以上。追踪标普500指数三倍反向日表现的SPXU今年以来上涨了53%，而标普500指数下跌了19%。盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示，市场看空情绪加剧，“认为激进的交易者会将注意力转移到对冲或对下跌进行投机是明智的。”美国通胀达数十年高位、货币紧缩浪潮以及全球经济放缓的风险，这些因素都让投资者继续看空股市，尽管今年上半年全球股市蒸发了18万亿美元。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师预计，在经济衰退中，标普500指数可能跌至3000点，较当前水平下降22%。盈透证券的Sosnick表示，“逢低买入并没有起到作用。当它起作用的时候，通常是很短的一段时间。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"03086":0.9,"OEF":0.6,"NDX":0.9,"ETF":1,"SQQQ":0.88,"QNETCN":0.9,"IBKR":0.82,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"TTTN":0.9,"IVV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067937414,"gmtCreate":1652400430038,"gmtModify":1676535092335,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"yes","listText":"yes","text":"yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067937414","repostId":"1155367595","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155367595","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1652337006,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155367595?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-12 14:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"When can I buy US stocks again? Wall Street is closely monitoring these signals.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155367595","media":"Wind万得","summary":"分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过这些信号判断：ETF的资金流出情况、 VIX波动率指数、看跌看涨期权的比率、股价回调的个股数量等。分析师表示，预期周三通胀数据将带来\"","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts say that the final stage of a sharp decline in US stocks is often accompanied by a sell-off frenzy, and the market bottoming out can be judged by these signals: ETF capital outflows, the VIX volatility index, the ratio of put and call options, and the number of stocks whose stock prices have corrected. Analysts say stock and bond investors who expected Wednesday's inflation data to be a \"watershed moment\" are disappointed, as the debate over whether the market is close to bottoming out continues.</p><p>The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was undoubtedly highly anticipated. As the data was released, stock and bond markets saw a sell-off, posing a severe test for investors in 2022 as they worried about the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation while avoiding negative impacts on the economy.</p><p>However, released data showed that inflation slowed in April, with the annualized growth rate falling to 8.3% from 8.5% in March, but still higher than the expected 8.1%.</p><p>More problematic for investors is the exclusion of core indices that track highly volatile food and energy prices. It showed monthly growth of 0.6%, compared to Wall Street's forecast of 0.4%. Core inflation has also slowed to 6.2% over the past year from a 40-year high of 6.5% in March.</p><p>After a round of volatile trading, U.S. stocks closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 327 points, or 1%, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline. The S&P 500 index fell sharply by 1.65% on Monday, closing at a 13-month low. The Nasdaq index, which had fallen into a bear market earlier this year, plunged 3%.</p><p>Trading in Treasury Bond also fluctuated, but there were no signs of a turning point, suggesting that the sell-off that pushed US Treasury yields to a three-and-a-half-year high this month may not have come to an end.</p><p>In a report, John Higgins, chief market analyst at Capital Economics, said, \"At least so far, the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows preliminary evidence that inflation has peaked and is not a watershed moment for U.S. Treasury Bond or the stock market.\"</p><p>Analysts and investors say the problem is that while inflation may have peaked, it is not slowing fast enough to make sense of what the Federal Reserve will do to control price pressures in the coming months. This month, the Federal Reserve raised its Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points, the largest increase in rate hike in more than 20 years—the Fed's usual rate hike is 25 basis points.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the next two policy meetings will consider a 50 basis point rate hike, but he poured cold water on speculation about the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike. Now, some analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may change its stance and bring rate hike’s 75 basis point plan back into consideration.</p><p>Investors will closely monitor economic data and the Federal Reserve's policy response in the future. Analysts say that the final stage of a sharp decline in US stocks is often accompanied by a sell-off frenzy, and three signals can be used to judge whether the market has bottomed out.</p><p>First, Michael Hartnett, head of investment strategy at Bank of America, said that investors have poured $1.5 trillion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the beginning of 2021. So far, they have only withdrawn about $35 billion. He stated that if the market bottoms out, he expects $300 billion in capital outflows.</p><p>The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) tracks investor concerns based on positions in the options market. Bob Doll, chief investment officer at market research firm Crossmark Global Investments, said the volatility index recently touched 35, but not high enough to foreshadow a bottom, and he would like to see the index approach 40. \"We have evidence that the market has made some concessions, but it may not be enough to say that it has bottomed out.\"</p><p>Larry McDonald, founder of Bear Traps Report, said that with US stocks bottoming out, the number of stocks priced above their 200-day moving averages needs to shrink sharply. When this ratio falls within the 20% range, it signals a bottoming out, while the most recent figure is 28%. McDonald pointed out that the number of stocks falling on the New York Stock Exchange outnumbered the number rising (7 to 1), one of the highest ratios in the past five years, and a large number of stocks on Nasdaq recently hit new lows.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When can I buy US stocks again? Wall Street is closely monitoring these signals.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen can I buy US stocks again? Wall Street is closely monitoring these signals.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-12 14:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Analysts say that the final stage of a sharp decline in US stocks is often accompanied by a sell-off frenzy, and the market bottoming out can be judged by these signals: ETF capital outflows, the VIX volatility index, the ratio of put and call options, and the number of stocks whose stock prices have corrected. Analysts say stock and bond investors who expected Wednesday's inflation data to be a \"watershed moment\" are disappointed, as the debate over whether the market is close to bottoming out continues.</p><p>The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was undoubtedly highly anticipated. As the data was released, stock and bond markets saw a sell-off, posing a severe test for investors in 2022 as they worried about the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation while avoiding negative impacts on the economy.</p><p>However, released data showed that inflation slowed in April, with the annualized growth rate falling to 8.3% from 8.5% in March, but still higher than the expected 8.1%.</p><p>More problematic for investors is the exclusion of core indices that track highly volatile food and energy prices. It showed monthly growth of 0.6%, compared to Wall Street's forecast of 0.4%. Core inflation has also slowed to 6.2% over the past year from a 40-year high of 6.5% in March.</p><p>After a round of volatile trading, U.S. stocks closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 327 points, or 1%, marking its fifth consecutive day of decline. The S&P 500 index fell sharply by 1.65% on Monday, closing at a 13-month low. The Nasdaq index, which had fallen into a bear market earlier this year, plunged 3%.</p><p>Trading in Treasury Bond also fluctuated, but there were no signs of a turning point, suggesting that the sell-off that pushed US Treasury yields to a three-and-a-half-year high this month may not have come to an end.</p><p>In a report, John Higgins, chief market analyst at Capital Economics, said, \"At least so far, the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows preliminary evidence that inflation has peaked and is not a watershed moment for U.S. Treasury Bond or the stock market.\"</p><p>Analysts and investors say the problem is that while inflation may have peaked, it is not slowing fast enough to make sense of what the Federal Reserve will do to control price pressures in the coming months. This month, the Federal Reserve raised its Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points, the largest increase in rate hike in more than 20 years—the Fed's usual rate hike is 25 basis points.</p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the next two policy meetings will consider a 50 basis point rate hike, but he poured cold water on speculation about the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike. Now, some analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may change its stance and bring rate hike’s 75 basis point plan back into consideration.</p><p>Investors will closely monitor economic data and the Federal Reserve's policy response in the future. Analysts say that the final stage of a sharp decline in US stocks is often accompanied by a sell-off frenzy, and three signals can be used to judge whether the market has bottomed out.</p><p>First, Michael Hartnett, head of investment strategy at Bank of America, said that investors have poured $1.5 trillion into mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the beginning of 2021. So far, they have only withdrawn about $35 billion. He stated that if the market bottoms out, he expects $300 billion in capital outflows.</p><p>The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) tracks investor concerns based on positions in the options market. Bob Doll, chief investment officer at market research firm Crossmark Global Investments, said the volatility index recently touched 35, but not high enough to foreshadow a bottom, and he would like to see the index approach 40. \"We have evidence that the market has made some concessions, but it may not be enough to say that it has bottomed out.\"</p><p>Larry McDonald, founder of Bear Traps Report, said that with US stocks bottoming out, the number of stocks priced above their 200-day moving averages needs to shrink sharply. When this ratio falls within the 20% range, it signals a bottoming out, while the most recent figure is 28%. McDonald pointed out that the number of stocks falling on the New York Stock Exchange outnumbered the number rising (7 to 1), one of the highest ratios in the past five years, and a large number of stocks on Nasdaq recently hit new lows.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155367595","content_text":"分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过这些信号判断：ETF的资金流出情况、 VIX波动率指数、看跌看涨期权的比率、股价回调的个股数量等。分析师表示，预期周三通胀数据将带来\"分水岭\"的股市和债市投资者感到失望，令市场是否接近触底的争论仍在继续。4月份消费者价格指数(CPI)无疑备受期待，数据出炉之际，股市和债市出现抛售，投资者在2022年面临严峻考验，因为他们担心美联储是否有能力在控制通胀的同时避免对经济造成负面影响。然而，公布的数据显示，4月通货膨胀有所放缓，年化增速从3月份的8.5%降至8.3%，但仍高于8.1%的预期。对投资者来说，更有问题的是剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心指数。它显示了0.6%的月度增长，而华尔街的预测为0.4%。过去一年的核心通胀率增幅也从3月份的40年高点6.5%放缓至6.2%。经过一轮震荡交易后，美股收盘走低。道琼斯工业指数下跌约327点，跌幅1%，为连续第五个交易日下跌。标普500指数周一大幅下跌1.65%，收于13个月低点。今年早些时候曾跌入熊市的纳斯达克指数暴跌3%。美国国债的交易也出现了波动，但同样没有出现拐点的迹象，表明本月将美债收益率推高至三年半高点的抛售行为可能还未按下休止符。Capital Economics首席市场分析师John Higgins在报告中称，“至少到目前为止，最新公布的美国消费者物价指数(CPI)显示通胀见顶的初步证据，对美国国债或股市来说还不是一个分水岭。”分析师和投资者说，问题在于，尽管通胀可能已经见顶，但其放缓速度不足以让人明白，美联储在未来几个月将采取什么措施来控制物价压力。本月，美联储将联邦基金利率上调50个基点，这是20多年来最大的加息幅度——通常美联储的加息幅度为25个基点。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，未来两次政策会议将考虑加息50个基点，但对加息75个基点可能性的猜测泼了冷水。现在，一些分析人士预计，美联储可能会改变态度，让加息75个基点的计划重新纳入考虑范围。投资者未来密切关注经济数据及美联储政策反应。分析师表示，美股大跌的最后阶段往往伴随抛售狂潮，而市场见底可以通过三个信号判断。首先，美国银行(Bank of America)投资策略主管迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)表示，自2021年初以来，投资者向共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)投入了1.5万亿美元。到目前为止，他们只提取了大约350亿美元。他表示，如果市场要见底，他预期要出现3000亿美元的资金流出。芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)的波动率指数(VIX指数)根据期权市场的仓位跟踪投资者的担忧情绪。市场研究公司Crossmark Global Investments首席投资长多尔(Bob Doll)说，波动率指数最近触及35，但还没有高到足以预示底部，他希望看到该指数接近40的位置。“我们有证据表明，市场出现了一些让步，但可能还不足以说它已经触底。”Bear Traps Report创始人拉里·麦克唐纳表示，美股见底，需要看到价格超过200日移动均线的股票数量急剧收缩。当这一比率落在20%的范围内，这意味着见底信号，而最近的数据是28%。麦克唐纳指出，纽交所股票下跌家数高于上涨家数(7比1)，两者比例为过去5年最高水平之一，纳斯达克的大量股票最近创下新低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038063731,"gmtCreate":1646699143448,"gmtModify":1676534151684,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038063731","repostId":"1198510306","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198510306","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1646696733,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198510306?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-08 07:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! Energy prices surge, European stocks enter bear market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198510306","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%，纳指跌超3%跌入熊市；②商品期货再度大涨，伦镍一度暴涨近80%；③第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果，停火磋商将继续进行；④、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 down nearly 3% and the Nasdaq Composite down more than 3%, entering a bear market; ② Commodity futures surged again, with LME nickel prices rising nearly 80% at one point; ③ The third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations yielded no substantial results, and ceasefire consultations will continue; ④ The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year. Overseas markets</p><p>1. Closing: US stocks closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 800 points due to conflict and inflation concerns.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 3%, its biggest drop in over a year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 800 points, and the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 3%, entering a bear market, all hitting new one-year lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.37%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.62%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.95%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Electric</a>Down nearly 17%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 8%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday, with Niu Technologies falling nearly 17% after its financial report showed that Q4 net profit fell 18% year-on-year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent Theory</a>It fell by more than 17%, and Bilibili fell by more than 8%; New energy vehicle stocks declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles fell by more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">solar power</a>Up more than 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">Happy Auto</a>It rose more than 21%, and Yiqi Education rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Youdao rose more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">micro-beauty holographic</a>It rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>It rose more than 3%.</p><p>3. The US may boycott Russian crude oil; US WTI crude oil closed up 3.2%.</p><p>Crude oil futures prices were supported as the US, UK, and other countries considered banning Russian oil imports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.72, or 3.2%, to settle at $119.40 a barrel. According to FactSet data, this is the highest closing price since September 2008, based on near-month contracts. WTI crude oil rose 26.30% last week.</p><p>4. Brent crude once approached $140; the possibility of a Russian oil embargo has raised crisis concerns.</p><p>Oil prices experienced their largest single-day volatility in history, having previously surged to nearly $140 before falling back as the United States indicated it was considering banning imports of Russian crude oil, exacerbating the possibility of supply shortages.</p><p>Brent crude oil prices fell back to around $121. Such oil price levels are exacerbating concerns about a major inflationary shock to the global economy. Sources familiar with the matter say the Biden administration is considering whether to ban Russian oil imports, at least initially, without the participation of European allies. Germany said it had no plans to suspend imports of Russian energy, exacerbating market volatility.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed up 1.5% on Monday, briefly breaking through the $2,000 mark during the session.</p><p>Gold futures closed higher on Monday, hitting their highest closing price since August 2020. The renewed escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has fueled risk aversion, pushing gold futures prices above the $2,000 per ounce mark on Monday.</p><p>Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $29.30, or 1.5%, to settle at $1,995.90 an ounce, before rising as high as $2,007.50 an ounce during the session.</p><p>6. European stock markets fell into a bear market amid soaring energy prices.</p><p>European stock markets fell to their lowest level in a year, with the DAX index and the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index closing in a bear market as soaring oil prices raised concerns that high inflation would damage economic growth.</p><p>The DAX index closed down 2% to its lowest level since November 2020, and has fallen 21% from its record high in January. The Eurozone Stoxx 50 index closed down 1.2%, also in a bear market.</p><p>7. European natural gas prices surge 79%, market chaos drives prices to record highs.</p><p>European benchmark natural gas futures surged 79% to the equivalent of more than $600 per barrel of crude oil, marking the most chaotic trading conditions in history. The surge could trigger massive margin calls, prompting companies to buy exchange-traded contracts to avoid paying cash, which in turn could lead to a further surge in futures prices.</p><p>Related to the situation between Russia and</p><p>1. The third round of Russia-Ukraine talks yielded no substantial results; ceasefire negotiations will continue.</p><p>Following the conclusion of the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, a member of the Ukrainian delegation stated that consultations with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities would continue, and that no substantial results had been achieved so far. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Podolyak also stated that the third round of Russia-Ukraine talks failed to achieve any results that could substantially improve the situation.</p><p>The head of the Russian delegation, Mezinsky, stated that Russia hopes the humanitarian corridor will begin operating tomorrow, and Ukraine has provided assurances regarding this. Russia's expected goals for talks with Ukraine in the Brest region have failed to materialize.</p><p>2. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is already evident on food shelves in many countries, and concerns about a global food crisis are rising.</p><p>The impact of Russia's military operation in Ukraine on global crop markets is already visible on store shelves.</p><p>Fears of soaring sunflower oil prices led to a buying frenzy in Türkiye over the weekend, with a video of people scrambling for lower-priced sunflower oil in a store sparking heated discussions. Some chain supermarket websites are out of stock</p><p>In Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, the price of some unsubsidized bread has risen sharply in the past week due to rising costs. In the Greater Cairo area, a pack of five pieces of flatbread costs about 7.5 Egyptian pounds ($0.48), compared to 5 Egyptian pounds a week ago.</p><p>3. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is disrupting the global shipping industry, and ocean freight rates may rise two to three times.</p><p>The Ukraine-Russia war could disrupt the global shipping industry, which is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. As sanctions begin to impact trade, Maersk (AMKBY.US) and Mediterranean Shipping, the largest Shipping container groups, have suspended bookings to and from Russia.</p><p>Ocean freight rates could even rise two to three times from the current price of $10,000 per 40-foot container, according to Glenn Kupk of supply chain consultancy FourKites.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The EU plans to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year.</p><p>According to two officials familiar with the matter, the European Commission is planning a path to end its dependence on Russian natural gas, which could lead to a nearly 80% reduction in import demand this year. In an effort to weaken the Kremlin's leverage, the European Commission revised its energy strategy following Russian President Vladimir Putin's military operation against Ukraine. An official said the plan, which will be submitted on Tuesday, includes finding new sources of natural gas and improving energy efficiency, with the goal of eliminating dependence on Russia well before 2030.</p><p>2. U.S. Senators and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia.</p><p>Four top leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives issued a statement saying they have reached an agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia, saying they will jointly draft legislation to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and authorize the Biden administration to raise tariffs on both countries.</p><p>3. Russian gold was shut out of the London market, and the certification qualifications of all gold smelters were suspended.</p><p>The London Gold and Silver Market Association said on Monday that it has suspended the qualifications of all six Russian gold and silver smelters as good suppliers following sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom. Products manufactured by these companies before their eligibility was suspended will still be accepted.</p><p>4. The British Prime Minister stated that Britain will \"gradually\" reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas.</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that in the face of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Britain will \"gradually\" wean itself off its dependence on Russian oil and gas. He also called on Western countries to work together to ensure energy alternatives.</p><p>Following meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, Johnson said that Britain would develop a new energy supply strategy in the coming days and noted that Britain was considering using more of its own fossil fuels. However, he also emphasized that the UK has not abandoned its commitment to reducing carbon emissions.</p><p>5. The food crisis is urgent; the EU may consider relaxing import bans on genetically modified grains and herbicide-involved crops.</p><p>As major global oil and grain producing regions are embroiled in turmoil, the European Union, which insists on high standards for food imports, is also beginning to worry about its food supply.</p><p>According to media reports on Monday, citing Spanish Agriculture Minister Luis Planas, the European Union may consider temporarily lifting the ban on importing genetically modified grains from the United States and South America to help farmers weather the current chaotic times. Spain and France have also proposed exemptions for those who have used herbicides.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>Imports are primarily aimed at increasing inventories and finding alternative supply channels for important grains, primarily corn, which is also a major source of animal feed.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1133636608\" target=\"_blank\">Uber raises first-quarter earnings forecast: Consumers eager to travel again</a></p><p>Uber has reportedly raised its first-quarter 2022 earnings forecast due to a faster-than-expected rebound in ride-hailing demand impacted by the pandemic. Uber's stock price rose by about 2% at one point in pre-market trading on March 7. Meanwhile, rival Lyft's stock price also rose by more than 2%.</p><p>In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Uber now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for the first quarter of this year to be between $130 million and $150 million, higher than its previous expectation of between $100 million and $130 million.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1185303476\" target=\"_blank\">Intel Autonomous Driving Business Unit Mobileye Secretly Submits IPO Application</a></p><p>According to reports, Intel announced on March 7 that its autonomous vehicle business unit, Mobileye, has secretly submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), proposing to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) of Mobileye shares. Currently, the number and price of new shares to be offered have not been determined. The IPO date will take place after the SEC completes its evaluation process, and the specific timing will depend on market and other conditions.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217544945\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla's biggest bull: Berlin's \"Gigafactory\" approved, clearing up the biggest suspense for the stock.</a></p><p>Dan Ives, a well-known Tesla bull and analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said in a report to investors on March 6 that the approval of the Berlin Gigafactory for production is crucial for Tesla.</p><p>Ives wrote, \"The 'biggest suspense' for Tesla stock has been eliminated after German authorities said Tesla could begin production at its new factory in Berlin.\"</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217448301\" target=\"_blank\">Wedbush: Gives Apple an \"Outperform\" rating for its upcoming spring product launch event.</a></p><p>Apple will hold its 2022 Spring Event at 10:00 a.m. local time on March 8 (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on March 9). The market widely expects it to launch a new iPhone SE with 5G capabilities, as well as new iPad Airs and Macs using its M-series chips. Wedbush Securities believes that all of the above products will become \"popular products\" for Apple. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives gave Apple an \"outperform\" rating with a target price of $200.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217415574\" target=\"_blank\">Coal giant Peabody plunged more than 24% at one point, forcing it to add large amounts of margin as coal prices soared.</a></p><p>On Monday, March 7, Peabody Energy, the world's largest privately held coal company, plummeted by more than 24% in the U.S. stock market, falling sharply from a near three-year high set last Friday since mid-May 2019, nearly erasing all of its gains for the month.</p><p>This is mainly due to the company's announcement stating that...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A financing arrangement was reached under which the latter provided a $150 million unsecured, multiple-drawable credit line to support Peabody, whose coal mines are primarily located in the United States and Australia, for its \"potential near-term liquidity needs.\"</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217541424\" target=\"_blank\">Refuse to follow the trend! Uniqlo's founder says he will continue operating in Russia.</a></p><p>Following the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, while large European and American companies also withdrew from the country. Despite wave after wave of companies choosing to withdraw from the Russian market, some companies refused to follow suit and insisted on continuing to operate their businesses in Russia.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217344063\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett on increasing his holdings in Occidental Petroleum: $4.5 billion invested in five days, buying as much as he could.</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett revealed his recent large-scale holdings in an interview on Monday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>According to the company's stock history, he spent a whopping $4.5 billion in five trading days last week, buying 91.2 million shares, which is worth more than $5 billion at the current share price.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! Energy prices surge, European stocks enter bear market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning | The Nasdaq fell into a bear market! Energy prices surge, European stocks enter bear market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-03-08 07:45</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: ① U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 down nearly 3% and the Nasdaq Composite down more than 3%, entering a bear market; ② Commodity futures surged again, with LME nickel prices rising nearly 80% at one point; ③ The third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations yielded no substantial results, and ceasefire consultations will continue; ④ The EU plans to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year. Overseas markets</p><p>1. Closing: US stocks closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 800 points due to conflict and inflation concerns.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 3%, its biggest drop in over a year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 800 points, and the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 3%, entering a bear market, all hitting new one-year lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.37%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.62%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.95%.</p><p>2. Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Electric</a>Down nearly 17%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 8%</p><p>Most popular Chinese concept stocks closed lower on Monday, with Niu Technologies falling nearly 17% after its financial report showed that Q4 net profit fell 18% year-on-year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">Fluent Theory</a>It fell by more than 17%, and Bilibili fell by more than 8%; New energy vehicle stocks declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell nearly 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles fell by more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">solar power</a>Up more than 28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">Happy Auto</a>It rose more than 21%, and Yiqi Education rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Youdao rose more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">micro-beauty holographic</a>It rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">TAL Education Group</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">Gaotu</a>It rose more than 3%.</p><p>3. The US may boycott Russian crude oil; US WTI crude oil closed up 3.2%.</p><p>Crude oil futures prices were supported as the US, UK, and other countries considered banning Russian oil imports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.72, or 3.2%, to settle at $119.40 a barrel. According to FactSet data, this is the highest closing price since September 2008, based on near-month contracts. WTI crude oil rose 26.30% last week.</p><p>4. Brent crude once approached $140; the possibility of a Russian oil embargo has raised crisis concerns.</p><p>Oil prices experienced their largest single-day volatility in history, having previously surged to nearly $140 before falling back as the United States indicated it was considering banning imports of Russian crude oil, exacerbating the possibility of supply shortages.</p><p>Brent crude oil prices fell back to around $121. Such oil price levels are exacerbating concerns about a major inflationary shock to the global economy. Sources familiar with the matter say the Biden administration is considering whether to ban Russian oil imports, at least initially, without the participation of European allies. Germany said it had no plans to suspend imports of Russian energy, exacerbating market volatility.</p><p>5. Gold futures closed up 1.5% on Monday, briefly breaking through the $2,000 mark during the session.</p><p>Gold futures closed higher on Monday, hitting their highest closing price since August 2020. The renewed escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has fueled risk aversion, pushing gold futures prices above the $2,000 per ounce mark on Monday.</p><p>Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $29.30, or 1.5%, to settle at $1,995.90 an ounce, before rising as high as $2,007.50 an ounce during the session.</p><p>6. European stock markets fell into a bear market amid soaring energy prices.</p><p>European stock markets fell to their lowest level in a year, with the DAX index and the Eurozone Stoxx 50 index closing in a bear market as soaring oil prices raised concerns that high inflation would damage economic growth.</p><p>The DAX index closed down 2% to its lowest level since November 2020, and has fallen 21% from its record high in January. The Eurozone Stoxx 50 index closed down 1.2%, also in a bear market.</p><p>7. European natural gas prices surge 79%, market chaos drives prices to record highs.</p><p>European benchmark natural gas futures surged 79% to the equivalent of more than $600 per barrel of crude oil, marking the most chaotic trading conditions in history. The surge could trigger massive margin calls, prompting companies to buy exchange-traded contracts to avoid paying cash, which in turn could lead to a further surge in futures prices.</p><p>Related to the situation between Russia and</p><p>1. The third round of Russia-Ukraine talks yielded no substantial results; ceasefire negotiations will continue.</p><p>Following the conclusion of the third round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, a member of the Ukrainian delegation stated that consultations with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities would continue, and that no substantial results had been achieved so far. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Podolyak also stated that the third round of Russia-Ukraine talks failed to achieve any results that could substantially improve the situation.</p><p>The head of the Russian delegation, Mezinsky, stated that Russia hopes the humanitarian corridor will begin operating tomorrow, and Ukraine has provided assurances regarding this. Russia's expected goals for talks with Ukraine in the Brest region have failed to materialize.</p><p>2. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war is already evident on food shelves in many countries, and concerns about a global food crisis are rising.</p><p>The impact of Russia's military operation in Ukraine on global crop markets is already visible on store shelves.</p><p>Fears of soaring sunflower oil prices led to a buying frenzy in Türkiye over the weekend, with a video of people scrambling for lower-priced sunflower oil in a store sparking heated discussions. Some chain supermarket websites are out of stock</p><p>In Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, the price of some unsubsidized bread has risen sharply in the past week due to rising costs. In the Greater Cairo area, a pack of five pieces of flatbread costs about 7.5 Egyptian pounds ($0.48), compared to 5 Egyptian pounds a week ago.</p><p>3. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is disrupting the global shipping industry, and ocean freight rates may rise two to three times.</p><p>The Ukraine-Russia war could disrupt the global shipping industry, which is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. As sanctions begin to impact trade, Maersk (AMKBY.US) and Mediterranean Shipping, the largest Shipping container groups, have suspended bookings to and from Russia.</p><p>Ocean freight rates could even rise two to three times from the current price of $10,000 per 40-foot container, according to Glenn Kupk of supply chain consultancy FourKites.</p><p>International macro</p><p>1. The EU plans to reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas by nearly 80% this year.</p><p>According to two officials familiar with the matter, the European Commission is planning a path to end its dependence on Russian natural gas, which could lead to a nearly 80% reduction in import demand this year. In an effort to weaken the Kremlin's leverage, the European Commission revised its energy strategy following Russian President Vladimir Putin's military operation against Ukraine. An official said the plan, which will be submitted on Tuesday, includes finding new sources of natural gas and improving energy efficiency, with the goal of eliminating dependence on Russia well before 2030.</p><p>2. U.S. Senators and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia.</p><p>Four top leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives issued a statement saying they have reached an agreement on the outline of a bill to sanction Russia, saying they will jointly draft legislation to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus and authorize the Biden administration to raise tariffs on both countries.</p><p>3. Russian gold was shut out of the London market, and the certification qualifications of all gold smelters were suspended.</p><p>The London Gold and Silver Market Association said on Monday that it has suspended the qualifications of all six Russian gold and silver smelters as good suppliers following sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom. Products manufactured by these companies before their eligibility was suspended will still be accepted.</p><p>4. The British Prime Minister stated that Britain will \"gradually\" reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas.</p><p>British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that in the face of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Britain will \"gradually\" wean itself off its dependence on Russian oil and gas. He also called on Western countries to work together to ensure energy alternatives.</p><p>Following meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Dutch Prime Minister Rutte, Johnson said that Britain would develop a new energy supply strategy in the coming days and noted that Britain was considering using more of its own fossil fuels. However, he also emphasized that the UK has not abandoned its commitment to reducing carbon emissions.</p><p>5. The food crisis is urgent; the EU may consider relaxing import bans on genetically modified grains and herbicide-involved crops.</p><p>As major global oil and grain producing regions are embroiled in turmoil, the European Union, which insists on high standards for food imports, is also beginning to worry about its food supply.</p><p>According to media reports on Monday, citing Spanish Agriculture Minister Luis Planas, the European Union may consider temporarily lifting the ban on importing genetically modified grains from the United States and South America to help farmers weather the current chaotic times. Spain and France have also proposed exemptions for those who have used herbicides.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>Imports are primarily aimed at increasing inventories and finding alternative supply channels for important grains, primarily corn, which is also a major source of animal feed.</p><p>Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1133636608\" target=\"_blank\">Uber raises first-quarter earnings forecast: Consumers eager to travel again</a></p><p>Uber has reportedly raised its first-quarter 2022 earnings forecast due to a faster-than-expected rebound in ride-hailing demand impacted by the pandemic. Uber's stock price rose by about 2% at one point in pre-market trading on March 7. Meanwhile, rival Lyft's stock price also rose by more than 2%.</p><p>In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Uber now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for the first quarter of this year to be between $130 million and $150 million, higher than its previous expectation of between $100 million and $130 million.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1185303476\" target=\"_blank\">Intel Autonomous Driving Business Unit Mobileye Secretly Submits IPO Application</a></p><p>According to reports, Intel announced on March 7 that its autonomous vehicle business unit, Mobileye, has secretly submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), proposing to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) of Mobileye shares. Currently, the number and price of new shares to be offered have not been determined. The IPO date will take place after the SEC completes its evaluation process, and the specific timing will depend on market and other conditions.</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217544945\" target=\"_blank\">Tesla's biggest bull: Berlin's \"Gigafactory\" approved, clearing up the biggest suspense for the stock.</a></p><p>Dan Ives, a well-known Tesla bull and analyst at investment bank Wedbush, said in a report to investors on March 6 that the approval of the Berlin Gigafactory for production is crucial for Tesla.</p><p>Ives wrote, \"The 'biggest suspense' for Tesla stock has been eliminated after German authorities said Tesla could begin production at its new factory in Berlin.\"</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217448301\" target=\"_blank\">Wedbush: Gives Apple an \"Outperform\" rating for its upcoming spring product launch event.</a></p><p>Apple will hold its 2022 Spring Event at 10:00 a.m. local time on March 8 (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on March 9). The market widely expects it to launch a new iPhone SE with 5G capabilities, as well as new iPad Airs and Macs using its M-series chips. Wedbush Securities believes that all of the above products will become \"popular products\" for Apple. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives gave Apple an \"outperform\" rating with a target price of $200.</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217415574\" target=\"_blank\">Coal giant Peabody plunged more than 24% at one point, forcing it to add large amounts of margin as coal prices soared.</a></p><p>On Monday, March 7, Peabody Energy, the world's largest privately held coal company, plummeted by more than 24% in the U.S. stock market, falling sharply from a near three-year high set last Friday since mid-May 2019, nearly erasing all of its gains for the month.</p><p>This is mainly due to the company's announcement stating that...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>A financing arrangement was reached under which the latter provided a $150 million unsecured, multiple-drawable credit line to support Peabody, whose coal mines are primarily located in the United States and Australia, for its \"potential near-term liquidity needs.\"</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217541424\" target=\"_blank\">Refuse to follow the trend! Uniqlo's founder says he will continue operating in Russia.</a></p><p>Following the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, while large European and American companies also withdrew from the country. Despite wave after wave of companies choosing to withdraw from the Russian market, some companies refused to follow suit and insisted on continuing to operate their businesses in Russia.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2217344063\" target=\"_blank\">Buffett on increasing his holdings in Occidental Petroleum: $4.5 billion invested in five days, buying as much as he could.</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">Berkshire</a>Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett revealed his recent large-scale holdings in an interview on Monday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>According to the company's stock history, he spent a whopping $4.5 billion in five trading days last week, buying 91.2 million shares, which is worth more than $5 billion at the current share price.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","03086":"华夏纳指","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198510306","content_text":"摘要：①美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%，纳指跌超3%跌入熊市；②商品期货再度大涨，伦镍一度暴涨近80%；③第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果，停火磋商将继续进行；④、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近80%。海外市场1、收盘：冲突局势与通胀忧虑施压 美股收跌道指下挫800点美股周一大幅收跌，标普跌近3%创逾一年最大跌幅，道指跌近800点，纳指跌超3%、跌入熊市，均创一年新低。道指跌2.37%，纳指跌3.62%，标普500指数跌2.95%。2、热门中概股周一收盘大多走低 小牛电动跌近17% 哔哩哔哩跌超8%热门中概股周一收盘大多走低，小牛电动跌近17%，财报显示Q4净利润同比下降18%；流利说跌超17%，哔哩哔哩跌超8%；新能源汽车股走低，小鹏汽车跌近8%，理想汽车跌超5%，蔚来汽车跌超2%。阳光动力涨超28%，开心汽车涨超21%，一起教育涨超10%，网易有道涨超8%，微美全息涨超6%，好未来涨超4%，高途涨超3%。3、美或抵制俄国原油 美国WTI原油收高3.2%由于美英等国考虑禁止进口俄罗斯石油，原油期货价格得到支撑。纽约商品交易所4月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨3.72美元，涨幅为3.2%，收于每桶119.40美元。FactSet数据显示，按照近月合约计算，这是自2008年9月以来的最高收盘价。上周WTI原油累计上涨26.30%。4、布伦特一度接近140美元 俄罗斯石油禁运的可能性引发危机担忧石油价格创有史以来最大单日波幅，早前一度飙升至近140美元的水平，之后回落，因美国表示正在考虑禁止进口俄罗斯原油，加剧了供应紧张的可能性。布伦特油价回落至121美元左右。这样的油价水平正在加剧全球经济遭遇重大通胀冲击的担忧。知情人士称，拜登政府正在考虑至少在初期是否在欧洲盟友不参与的情况下禁止进口俄罗斯石油。德国表示，没有暂停进口俄罗斯能源的计划，加剧了市场的波动。5、黄金期货周一收高1.5% 盘中一度突破2000美元关口黄金期货周一收高并创2020年8月以来的最高收盘价。俄乌冲突再度升级，令避险情绪高涨，推动周一黄金期货价格一度突破每盎司2000美元关口。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格上涨29.30美元，涨幅1.5%，收于每盎司1995.90美元，盘中一度上涨至每盎司2007.50美元。6、欧洲股市在能源价格飙升之际跌入熊市欧洲股市跌至一年来的最低水平，DAX指数和欧元区斯托克50指数收盘进入熊市，因为油价飙升引发了高通胀将损伤经济增长的担忧。DAX指数收盘下跌2％，至2020年11月以来的最低水平，从1月份的创纪录高位累计下跌21％。欧元区斯托克50指数收盘下跌1.2％，也收于熊市。7、欧洲天然气价格飙升79% 市场一片混乱推动价格刷新纪录欧洲基准天然气期货飙升79%，达到相当于每桶原油超过600美元，市场出现了有史以来最为混乱的交易状况。飙升可能引发大规模的追加保证金，促使企业购买交易所合约以避免支付现金，进而导致期货价格进一步飙升。俄乌局势相关1、第三轮俄乌谈判无实质结果 停火磋商将继续进行第三轮俄乌谈判结束后，乌克兰代表团的一名成员表示，与俄罗斯关于停火和停止敌对行动的磋商将继续进行，相关问题到目前仍没有实质性结果。乌克兰总统办公室顾问波多利亚克也表示，俄乌第三轮会谈没取得能实质改善局势的结果。俄罗斯代表团团长梅津斯基则表示，俄方希望人道主义走廊从明天开始运行，乌克兰方面对此给予了保证。俄罗斯对与乌克兰在布列斯特州会谈的预期目标未能实现。2、俄乌战争的影响已在多国食品货架上显现 全球粮食危机忧虑升温俄罗斯在乌克兰开展军事行动给全球农作物市场带来的冲击已在商店货架上显现。由于担心葵花籽油价格飙升，土耳其周末期间出现抢购，民众在一家商店争抢较低价葵花籽油的视频引起热议；部分连锁超市网站缺货在全球最大的小麦进口国埃及，由于成本走高，过去一周部分未受补贴的面包价格大幅上涨；在大开罗地区，一包五片面饼的售价约为7.5埃及镑（0.48美元），而一周前为5埃及镑。3、乌俄冲突颠覆全球航运业 海运费率或将上涨两至三倍乌俄战争有可能颠覆正从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏的全球航运业。随着制裁开始对贸易产生影响，最大的海运集装箱集团马士基（AMKBY.US）和Mediterranean Shipping已经暂停了往返俄罗斯的业务预订。供应链咨询公司FourKites的格伦•克普克表示，海运费率甚至可能从目前每40英尺集装箱1万美元的价格上涨两到三倍。国际宏观1、欧盟计划今年将对俄罗斯天然气的依赖程度降低近80%据两位知情官员透露，欧盟委员会正在规划结束对俄罗斯天然气依赖的路径，这可能导致今年进口需求减少近80%。为削弱克里姆林宫方面的筹码，欧盟委员会在俄罗斯总统普京发动对乌克兰的军事行动后修改能源战略。一位官员表示，这份计划将于周二提交，内容包括寻找新的天然气来源和提高能源效率，目标是远早于2030年摆脱对俄罗斯的依赖。2、美国参众两院议员就制裁俄罗斯的法案大纲达成协议美国参议院和众议院四位高层领导人发表声明，已就制裁俄罗斯的法案大纲达成协议，表示将共同起草法案，暂停与俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的正常贸易关系，并授权拜登政府提高面向两国的关税。3、俄罗斯黄金被伦敦市场拒之门外 所有黄金冶炼商的认证资格均被暂停伦敦金银市场协会周一表示，在美国、欧盟和英国对俄罗斯实施制裁后，该协会暂停了所有六家俄罗斯金银冶炼企业的优良交货商资格。这些企业在资格暂停之前生产的产品仍将被接受。4、英首相表示英国将“逐步”摆脱对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊表示，面对俄乌两国之间的紧张局势，英国将要“逐步”摆脱对俄罗斯石油和天然气的依赖。他同时呼吁西方各国要共同努力确保能源替代方案。约翰逊当天在与加拿大总理特鲁多和荷兰首相吕特会晤之后表示，英国将在未来几天制定新的能源供应战略，并指出英国正在考虑使用更多自己的化石燃料。但他同时强调，英国并没有放弃减少碳排放的承诺。5、吃饭问题迫在眉睫 欧盟或考虑放宽转基因谷物和涉除草剂作物进口禁令随着全球主要原油和粮食产地卷入动荡，在口粮进口问题上坚持高标准的欧盟也开始担忧起吃饭问题。据媒体周一援引西班牙农业大臣路易斯·普拉纳斯(Luis Planas)称，欧盟可能会考虑临时取消从美国和南美进口转基因谷物的禁令，帮助农民度过眼下这段混乱的时光。西班牙和法国也已经提议豁免使用过除草剂的农产品进口，主要是为了增加库存以及寻找以玉米为主的重要谷物替代供应渠道，这些产品也是动物饲料的主要来源。公司新闻1、Uber调高第一季度业绩预期：消费者渴望重新出行据报道，Uber上调了2022年第一季度业绩预期，原因是疫情影响的出行需求的反弹速度快于预期。3月7日盘前交易中，Uber股价一度上涨约 2%。与此同时，竞争对手Lyft的股价也上涨了2%以上。Uber在提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件中称，现预计，今年第一季度调整后的EBITDA（息税折旧及摊销前利润） 将在1.3亿美元至1.5亿美元之间，高于之前预期的1亿美元至1.3亿美元之间。2、英特尔自动驾驶业务部门Mobileye秘密提交IPO申请据报道，英特尔公司3月7日宣布，旗下自动驾驶汽车业务部门Mobileye已向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）秘密提交Form S-1注册声明草案，拟首次公开发行（IPO）Mobileye新股。目前，新股发售数量和价格尚未确定。IPO日期将在SEC完成评估程序后进行，具体时间还要取决于市场和其他条件。3、特斯拉大多头：柏林“超级工厂”获批 该股最大悬念被清除特斯拉知名大多头、投行Wedbush分析师Dan Ives于3月6日在给投资者的一份报告中表示，柏林“超级工厂”获批生产对特斯拉来说至关重要。Ives写道，“在德国当局表示特斯拉可以在柏林的新工厂开始生产后，特斯拉股票‘最大悬念’已经被消除。”4、Wedbush：春季发布会即将召开 予苹果“跑赢大盘”评级苹果将于当地时间3月8日上午10点（北京时间3月9日凌晨2点）举办2022年春季发布会。市场普遍预计它将推出具有5G功能的新款iPhone SE，以及使用其M系列芯片的新iPad Air和Mac。Wedbush Securities认为，以上所有产品将成为苹果的“受欢迎产品”。Wedbush分析师Dan Ives予苹果“跑赢大盘”评级，目标价为200美元。5、煤炭巨头皮博迪一度暴跌超24%，被迫在煤价飙升时追加大额保证金3月7日周一，全球最大的私营煤炭公司皮博迪能源在美股市场一度暴跌超24%，从上周五所创的2019年5月中旬以来近三年高位大幅回落，接近抹去月内全部涨幅。这主要是由于公司发布公告称，与高盛达成一项融资安排，后者提供1.5亿美元的无担保可多次提取信贷额度，以支持煤矿主要位于美国和澳大利亚的皮博迪公司“近期内潜在的流动性需求”。6、拒绝跟风！优衣库创始人称将继续在俄经营业务俄乌冲突升级以后，西方国家对俄罗斯采取制裁措施的同时，欧美大型企业也纷纷从该国撤离。尽管一波又一波的公司选择退出俄罗斯市场，但也有公司拒绝跟风，坚持继续运营在俄罗斯的业务。7、巴菲特谈增持西方石油：五天投了45亿美元，能买多少买多少伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长沃伦-巴菲特在周一的一次采访中披露了他最近大手笔增持西方石油公司股份的经过，称他在上周五个交易日内豪掷45亿美元，买入了9120万股，按当前股价计算价值超过了50亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"03086":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001433669,"gmtCreate":1641297495776,"gmtModify":1676533594118,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/METX\">$美联教育科技(METX)$</a>wake up pls&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/METX\">$美联教育科技(METX)$</a>wake up pls&nbsp;","text":"$美联教育科技(METX)$wake up pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001433669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533861,"gmtCreate":1678019346453,"gmtModify":1678019350505,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533861","repostId":"1154440961","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154440961","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677989017,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154440961?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 12:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Lei Jun's New Story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154440961","media":"全天候科技","summary":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of the ecosystem.</b></b><b>Instead</b><b><b>Telling the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>In recent years, Xiaomi has been building its ecosystem and expanding into numerous smart device fields, gradually allowing Mi Home terminal smart products to penetrate various IoT markets.</p><p>As the smartphone market entered its second phase, Lei Jun no longer focused on telling the story of the ecosystem, but instead on the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun brought up the story of \"supply chain\" at the \"Two Sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, as a deputy to the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, one of which was about promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested encouraging and supporting the science and technology innovation industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Yuan Fund\" launched its second round of financing, with the fundraising scale increasing from more than 6 billion yuan last year to more than 9 billion yuan. This fund's investment objectives focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about its supply chain has made phased progress. According to previous statistics from Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi had invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of intelligent vehicles.</p><p>\"Cost-effectiveness\" has always been Xiaomi's deepest label. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for its \"insufficient self-developed technology capabilities\". Investments in upstream core supply chain companies or technology companies demonstrate Xiaomi's determination to strengthen its voice in the supply chain.</p><p>The launch of the supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>Speaking out for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>Since its debut last August, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from recent updates from Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs in the field of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>In his suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that my country has made key breakthroughs in the core technologies of bionic humanoid robots, but still faces challenges such as the need to improve the performance of core components, insufficient application demand, lack of large-scale mass production capabilities, and an unsound application ecosystem and supporting system.</p><p>Therefore, he suggested: encouraging and supporting the science and technology innovation industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry; Support machine manufacturers to take the lead in creating national innovation consortia and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecosystem for bionic humanoid robots and accelerate the cultivation of application scenarios.</p><p>Last June, driven by Musk's announcement that he would launch a humanoid robot, the concept of bionic humanoid robots became a hot topic in the domestic capital market, and this sub-sector also became the hottest track in the robotics industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi unveiled its prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"CyberOne\") at Lei Jun's annual keynote speech before Tesla, and this enthusiasm reached its peak.</p><p>Xiaomi's CyberOne is not a PowerPoint presentation or a prop; it's a handheld prototype that can interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of each CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan, making it impossible to achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that shaped bionic robots had the highest degree of technological integration and the greatest difficulty, and Xiaomi was still in its early stages.</p><p>Turning its attention overseas, Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus, unveiled at last year's AI Day, also failed to meet its previously claimed standards. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk yet, but I think it will in a few weeks.\"</p><p>Musk previously made a bold statement: the target price of Optimus Prime Optimus may be less than $20,000, and more than a million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed recent progress on Optimus Prime at Tesla's investor day: \"It's not working properly, but things are getting better.\"</p><p>Tesla continues to increase its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology discovered that Tesla China recently released job postings for robotics positions, including Automation Control Engineer (Robotics) and Electrical Design Engineer - Robotics Development and Applications.</p><p>The prospects offered by the institution are very attractive. Global market research firm Marketsandmarkets predicts that the global humanoid robot market will grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to $17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots have the potential to become another entry point after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>However, it is undeniable that the bionic humanoid robot industry is one that requires long-term investment.</p><p>In China, there are still many realities facing this track that must be addressed, such as core components, robot underlying operating systems and chips, and system design software.</p><p><b>Billions of yuan fund focuses on the integrated circuit industry chain</b></p><p>After raising over 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Yuan Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2, Kingsoft announced that its subsidiaries, including Wuhan Kingsoft, Xiaomi Beijing, and Xiaomi Wuhan, have entered into partnership agreements with other investors to establish an equity investment fund in the integrated circuit-related field, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Lei Jun's Xiaomi and Kingsoft, the fund's LPs also include Beijing Municipal Guidance Fund and Yizhuang State-owned Investment, which are backed by Beijing state-owned assets, Tianjin Haichuang, which is owned by Tianjin state-owned assets Beijing, as well as Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Xingzheng Investment, and GigaDevice.</p><p>Compared to its initial fundraising in July last year, the fund has five new faces: Wuhan Kingsoft, Beijing Guidance Fund, Naxing Venture Capital, Di'ao Microelectronics, and CITIC Haohong. The fund's size has also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in its initial financing to 9.03 billion yuan, approaching the target size of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to business registration information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing\"). It was registered and established on September 18, 2021, and the filing was completed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the fund's purpose, Kingsoft stated that it primarily engages in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in non-listed companies.</p><p>The main targets are integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors, covering next-generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, and upstream and downstream applications and supply chains related to mobile terminal consumer goods and smart devices.</p><p>It is not difficult to see from this that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current businesses of mobile phones and automobiles. For a long time, most of Xiaomi's investments have revolved around its main business and future development direction, focusing on technological upgrades and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, automobiles, and semiconductors.</p><p>Since announcing its car manufacturing strategy, Xiaomi has been expanding into several companies related to the automotive industry chain through investment and equity investment. According to previous statistics from Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi had invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of intelligent vehicles, including 17 companies in intelligent driving, 13 companies in intelligent electric vehicles, and 6 companies in intelligent cockpits. Among them, 22 companies were newly invested in in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investments were completed through the Xiaomi Yangtze River Industry Investment Fund. After its establishment, Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing focused more on collaborative investment in Xiaomi's automotive business.</p><p>Public information shows that Xiaomi Smart Manufacturing currently has more than ten external investment projects, all of which involve the automotive industry chain, including multiple links such as semiconductors, power batteries, and core equipment parts.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's investment in the upstream and downstream sectors of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as his previous investment in Xiaomi's ecosystem. This will help it further enhance its vertical integration capabilities in the vehicle business and ensure the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"qthkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lei Jun's New Story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLei Jun's New Story\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">全天候科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b><b>Lei Jun no longer focuses on telling the story of the ecosystem.</b></b><b>Instead</b><b><b>Telling the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</b></b>In recent years, Xiaomi has been building its ecosystem and expanding into numerous smart device fields, gradually allowing Mi Home terminal smart products to penetrate various IoT markets.</p><p>As the smartphone market entered its second phase, Lei Jun no longer focused on telling the story of the ecosystem, but instead on the story of the supply chain related to Xiaomi's business.</p><p>Recently, Lei Jun brought up the story of \"supply chain\" at the \"Two Sessions\". In 2023, Lei Jun, as a deputy to the National People's Congress, prepared three proposals, one of which was about promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots. Lei Jun suggested encouraging and supporting the science and technology innovation industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0a5d3fa4c549d087facade077bcded\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Also this month, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Yuan Fund\" launched its second round of financing, with the fundraising scale increasing from more than 6 billion yuan last year to more than 9 billion yuan. This fund's investment objectives focus on integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors.</p><p>Xiaomi's story about its supply chain has made phased progress. According to previous statistics from Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi had invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of intelligent vehicles.</p><p>\"Cost-effectiveness\" has always been Xiaomi's deepest label. This has also become the reason why Xiaomi has been criticized by the outside world for its \"insufficient self-developed technology capabilities\". Investments in upstream core supply chain companies or technology companies demonstrate Xiaomi's determination to strengthen its voice in the supply chain.</p><p>The launch of the supply chain layout is an attempt by Lei Jun and Xiaomi to seize market opportunities.</p><p>Can Lei Jun's new story be told?</p><p><b>Speaking out for the humanoid robot industry chain</b></p><p>Since its debut last August, there has been little news about Xiaomi's bionic humanoid robot CyberOne. However, judging from recent updates from Xiaomi, Lei Jun hopes to make more breakthroughs in the field of bionic humanoid robots.</p><p>In his suggestions on promoting the rapid development of bionic humanoid robots, Lei Jun believes that my country has made key breakthroughs in the core technologies of bionic humanoid robots, but still faces challenges such as the need to improve the performance of core components, insufficient application demand, lack of large-scale mass production capabilities, and an unsound application ecosystem and supporting system.</p><p>Therefore, he suggested: encouraging and supporting the science and technology innovation industry chain and promoting the planning and layout of the bionic humanoid robot industry; Support machine manufacturers to take the lead in creating national innovation consortia and strengthen joint research on core technologies; Build an open industrial ecosystem for bionic humanoid robots and accelerate the cultivation of application scenarios.</p><p>Last June, driven by Musk's announcement that he would launch a humanoid robot, the concept of bionic humanoid robots became a hot topic in the domestic capital market, and this sub-sector also became the hottest track in the robotics industry.</p><p>Two months later, Xiaomi unveiled its prototype bionic robot CyberOne (internal stage name \"CyberOne\") at Lei Jun's annual keynote speech before Tesla, and this enthusiasm reached its peak.</p><p>Xiaomi's CyberOne is not a PowerPoint presentation or a prop; it's a handheld prototype that can interact with people. Unfortunately, the cost of each CyberOne is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan, making it impossible to achieve mass production. At that time, Lei Jun admitted that shaped bionic robots had the highest degree of technological integration and the greatest difficulty, and Xiaomi was still in its early stages.</p><p>Turning its attention overseas, Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus, unveiled at last year's AI Day, also failed to meet its previously claimed standards. In Musk's words, \"It's not quite ready to walk yet, but I think it will in a few weeks.\"</p><p>Musk previously made a bold statement: the target price of Optimus Prime Optimus may be less than $20,000, and more than a million units will be mass-produced. However, Musk revealed recent progress on Optimus Prime at Tesla's investor day: \"It's not working properly, but things are getting better.\"</p><p>Tesla continues to increase its investment in humanoid robots. All-Weather Technology discovered that Tesla China recently released job postings for robotics positions, including Automation Control Engineer (Robotics) and Electrical Design Engineer - Robotics Development and Applications.</p><p>The prospects offered by the institution are very attractive. Global market research firm Marketsandmarkets predicts that the global humanoid robot market will grow from $1.5 billion in 2022 to $17.3 billion in 2027. Minsheng Securities believes that humanoid robots have the potential to become another entry point after mobile phones and cars, with huge commercial value.</p><p>However, it is undeniable that the bionic humanoid robot industry is one that requires long-term investment.</p><p>In China, there are still many realities facing this track that must be addressed, such as core components, robot underlying operating systems and chips, and system design software.</p><p><b>Billions of yuan fund focuses on the integrated circuit industry chain</b></p><p>After raising over 6 billion yuan for the first time last year, the \"Xiaomi 10 Billion Yuan Fund\" launched its second round of financing this month.</p><p>On March 2, Kingsoft announced that its subsidiaries, including Wuhan Kingsoft, Xiaomi Beijing, and Xiaomi Wuhan, have entered into partnership agreements with other investors to establish an equity investment fund in the integrated circuit-related field, with an expected total scale of 10 billion yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eaf1f7c5e348d7da105e2c9435c44cb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition to Lei Jun's Xiaomi and Kingsoft, the fund's LPs also include Beijing Municipal Guidance Fund and Yizhuang State-owned Investment, which are backed by Beijing state-owned assets, Tianjin Haichuang, which is owned by Tianjin state-owned assets Beijing, as well as Hainan Huaying Kaitai, Guangzhou Huaduo, Xingzheng Investment, and GigaDevice.</p><p>Compared to its initial fundraising in July last year, the fund has five new faces: Wuhan Kingsoft, Beijing Guidance Fund, Naxing Venture Capital, Di'ao Microelectronics, and CITIC Haohong. The fund's size has also increased from 6.33 billion yuan in its initial financing to 9.03 billion yuan, approaching the target size of 10 billion yuan.</p><p>According to business registration information, the full name of the fund is: Beijing Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing Equity Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership) (hereinafter referred to as \"Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing\"). It was registered and established on September 18, 2021, and the filing was completed on April 6, 2022.</p><p>Regarding the fund's purpose, Kingsoft stated that it primarily engages in equity investment or quasi-equity investment, or investment-related activities in non-listed companies.</p><p>The main targets are integrated circuits and related upstream and downstream sectors, covering next-generation information technology, intelligent manufacturing, new materials, artificial intelligence, displays and display devices, automotive electronics, and upstream and downstream applications and supply chains related to mobile terminal consumer goods and smart devices.</p><p>It is not difficult to see from this that these are closely related to Xiaomi's current businesses of mobile phones and automobiles. For a long time, most of Xiaomi's investments have revolved around its main business and future development direction, focusing on technological upgrades and industrial chain layout, such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, automobiles, and semiconductors.</p><p>Since announcing its car manufacturing strategy, Xiaomi has been expanding into several companies related to the automotive industry chain through investment and equity investment. According to previous statistics from Guojin Securities, as early as the end of September 2021, Xiaomi had invested in as many as 62 companies in the field of intelligent vehicles, including 17 companies in intelligent driving, 13 companies in intelligent electric vehicles, and 6 companies in intelligent cockpits. Among them, 22 companies were newly invested in in 2021.</p><p>Previously, most of Xiaomi's semiconductor investments were completed through the Xiaomi Yangtze River Industry Investment Fund. After its establishment, Xiaomi Intelligent Manufacturing focused more on collaborative investment in Xiaomi's automotive business.</p><p>Public information shows that Xiaomi Smart Manufacturing currently has more than ten external investment projects, all of which involve the automotive industry chain, including multiple links such as semiconductors, power batteries, and core equipment parts.</p><p>Some industry analysts believe that Lei Jun's investment in the upstream and downstream sectors of the integrated circuit industry is exactly the same as his previous investment in Xiaomi's ecosystem. This will help it further enhance its vertical integration capabilities in the vehicle business and ensure the supply of key automotive components and software systems.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320\">全天候科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb44f0df3fb7312ee913474e800cc495","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://awtmt.com/articles/3683320","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154440961","content_text":"雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。前几年，小米打造生态链版图，在众多智能设备领域进行布局，逐步让米家终端智能产品渗透到IoT的各个市场中。智能手机市场进入下半场后，雷军不再侧重讲生态链的故事，而是讲起与小米业务相关的供应链的故事。近日，雷军将“供应链”的故事讲上了“两会”。2023年，作为全国人大代表的雷军准备了3份建议案，其中一份关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展。雷军建议，鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局。同样在这个月，“小米百亿基金”开展了第二轮融资，募资规模已从去年60多亿增至90多亿元。而这支基金的投资目标着重于集成电路以及相关上游及下游领域。小米关于供应链的故事已取得阶段性进展。国金证券此前统计数据显示，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家。一直以来，“性价比”是小米身上最深的标签。这也成为小米被外界诟病“自研技术能力不足”的原因。而对上游核心供应链企业或技术企业的投资，表明小米希望强供应链话语权的决心。供应链布局的开启，是雷军和小米试图抓住市场机遇的一次蓄力与尝试。雷军的新故事能否讲成？为人形机器人产业链“发声”去年8月亮相之后，有关小米仿生人形机器人CyberOne的消息一直不多。不过最近从小米传出的动态来看，雷军希望能在仿生人形机器人这个赛道上有更多的突破。在关于推动仿生人形机器人快速发展的建议中，雷军认为，目前我国在仿生人形机器人核心技术方面已取得关键突破，但仍然面临核心部组件性能有待提升、应用需求牵引不足、不具备规模化量产能力、应用生态和配套支撑体系不健全等挑战。为此，他建议：鼓励扶持科创产业链，推进仿生人形机器人产业规划布局；支持整机企业牵头创建国家创新联合体，加强核心技术联合攻关；构建仿生人形机器人开放产业生态，加速场景应用培育。去年6月，在马斯克“将推出人形机器人”效应下，仿生人形机器人相关概念成为国内资本市场上的热门概念，这个细分赛道也成为机器人行业最热的赛道。两个月后，小米先于特斯拉在雷军年度演讲会上发布原型仿生机器人CyberOne（内部艺名“铁大”），这股热情也随之达到峰值。小米推出的CyberOne不是PPT，也不是道具，是可以拿出手的原型机，能与人进行互动。遗憾的是，CyberOne的成本每台高达六、七十万元，尚无法实现量产。彼时，雷军坦承，形仿生机器人的技术集成度最高、难度也最大，小米还处于刚刚起步的第一阶段。将视线转向国外，特斯拉在去年AI Day上发布的人形机器人擎天柱Optimus，同样没有达到此前宣称的水平。用马斯克的话来说，“它还没有完全准备好走路，但我认为它会在几周内走路。”马斯克此前放出豪言：擎天柱Optimus的目标价格可能低于2万美元，还要量产百万台之上。然而，马斯克在特斯拉投资者日上透露了擎天柱Optimus的最近进展：“无法正常工作，不过情况正在好转。”特斯拉仍在不断加大关于人形机器人的投入。全天候科技发现，特斯拉中国近期发布了机器人方向的岗位招聘信息，包括自动化控制工程师（机器人）、电气设计工程师-机器人开发及其应用方向。机构给出的前景很诱人。全球市场研究机构Marketsandmarkets预测，全球人形机器人市场规模将从2022年的15亿美元提升至2027年的173亿美元。民生证券认为，人形机器人有望成为继手机、汽车后的又一入口，商业价值巨大。但不可否认，仿生人形机器人赛道是一个需要长期投入的赛道。就国内而言，摆在这条赛道面前且不得不解决的现实还不少，如核心零部件、机器人底层操作系统与芯片、系统设计软件等。百亿基金聚焦集成电路产业链在去年首次募资超60亿元后，“小米百亿基金”在这个月又展开了第二轮融资。3月2日，金山软件公告称，公司附属公司武汉金山、小米北京、小米武汉等，与其他投资者订立合伙协议，内容有关成立集成电路相关领域股权投资基金，预期总规模100亿元。除雷军系的小米、金山外，该基金LP还包含北京国资背景的北京市引导基金、亦庄国投，天津国资北京的天津海创，以及海南华盈开泰、广州华多、兴证投资、兆易创新等。相较去年7月首次募资，该基金多5位新面孔：武汉金山、北京市引导基金、纳星创投、帝奥微、信银浩鸿。基金规模也从首次融资的63.3亿元增至90.3亿元，接近百亿目标规模。工商信息显示，该基金全名为：北京小米智造股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简称“小米智造”），2021年9月18日注册成立，2022年4月6日完成备案。对于该基金的作用，金山软件称：主要从事股权投资或准股权投资，或对非上市公司进行投资相关活动。主要对象便是集成电路，以及相关上游及下游领域，涵盖新一代信息科技、 智能制造、新材料、人工智能、显示器及显示装置、汽车电子，以及有关移动终端消费品、智能装置的上游及下游应用及供应链。从中不难发现，这些与小米当前业务手机、汽车密切相关。一直以来，小米的大部分投资业务基本围绕其主营业务和未来发展方向，进行技术提升和产业链布局，例如人工智能、物联网、汽车和半导体等。自宣布造车以来，小米就通过投资及入股等方式，布局多家汽车产业链相关企业。据国金证券此前统计，早在2021年9月底，小米投资布局有关智能汽车领域的企业多达62家，其中智能驾驶布局17家企业，智能电动布局13家企业，智能座舱布局6家企业，当中有22家企业是2021年新增投资。此前，小米多数半导体投资动作是通过小米长江产业投资基金完成的。小米智造成立后，其更聚焦小米汽车业务协同投资方向。公开信息显示，小米智造目前对外投资的十余个项目，均涉及汽车产业链，包括汽车产业链半导体、动力电池、核心设备零件等多个环节。有行业人士分析认为，雷军布局集成电路产业上下游领域，与此前布局小米生态链如出一辙。这有利于其进一步提升整车业务的垂直整合能力，保障汽车关键零部件和软件系统供应。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533357,"gmtCreate":1678019323780,"gmtModify":1678019326433,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533357","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, popular in China, are gradually expanding their market share in the US and Japanese automotive markets.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually increases, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also gradually coming into people's view and becoming the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. Technological advancements have also improved battery capacity, thereby extending the original driving range. In recent years, they have become very popular among automakers.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the electric vehicle battery capacity sold in China. In the United States, this figure was only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But this trend is about to change—all signs indicate that this battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle market in the United States and Japan and seizing market share from traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States has launched a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.</h2>Recently, startup Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after its new $1.6 billion factory goes into operation next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux stated,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly sparked a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is beginning to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that...<b>All major automakers will prefer to use this battery in entry-level electric vehicles; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36% of the market share of pure electric vehicle batteries in 2025, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery startup Kore Power also predicts that demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The company's plant, scheduled to open in Arizona by the end of 2024, will have two assembly lines: one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American car manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>They are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford Motor Company announced that the two companies will jointly build a new power battery plant in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to $3.5 billion in the new plant. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license its battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the entire vehicle, and some of the equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter the Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The battery factory will have an annual production capacity of 5 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households for a day.</p><p>The project is led by PowerX, a renewable energy startup founded in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As its driving force, PowerX has turned its attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries, rather than the current mainstream product of stationary batteries—ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at its new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging stations in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese enterprises accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies hold an overwhelming advantage in the automotive battery sector, which is the main battleground.</p><p>Data from South Korea's SNE survey shows that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>CATL ranks first, and CATL ranks second.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The top two spots are both occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten companies in terms of global market share, six are Chinese, with a total market share exceeding 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China is also leading other countries in the world in terms of the speed of expansion of the electric vehicle market. Since 2010, China has issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and provided preferential treatment in areas such as the location of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, CATL of China, the world's largest automotive battery company, is also at the forefront.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that a single charge of the company's battery can enable a pure electric vehicle to travel more than 700 kilometers. CATL will launch its \"M3P\" battery, which is an improved version of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in 2023. Its driving range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion battery, and are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Prior to this, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not very popular in the United States because they had worse battery life than batteries such as NMC, but they could be charged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said that range is considered too important for American drivers to sacrifice for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have suggested that you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is...<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, the cost of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt is also rising.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also surged. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where working conditions are extremely harsh. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to levels about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery,\" the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are evident.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has become cheaper in the United States.</b>Furthermore, driven by federal government subsidies, the widespread adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, potentially reducing drivers' concerns about battery life. From a safety perspective, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>RISK WARNING AND DISCLAIMER</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, popular in China, are gradually expanding their market share in the US and Japanese automotive markets.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually increases, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also gradually coming into people's view and becoming the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. Technological advancements have also improved battery capacity, thereby extending the original driving range. In recent years, they have become very popular among automakers.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the electric vehicle battery capacity sold in China. In the United States, this figure was only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But this trend is about to change—all signs indicate that this battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle market in the United States and Japan and seizing market share from traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States has launched a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.</h2>Recently, startup Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after its new $1.6 billion factory goes into operation next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux stated,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly sparked a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is beginning to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that...<b>All major automakers will prefer to use this battery in entry-level electric vehicles; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36% of the market share of pure electric vehicle batteries in 2025, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery startup Kore Power also predicts that demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The company's plant, scheduled to open in Arizona by the end of 2024, will have two assembly lines: one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American car manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>They are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford Motor Company announced that the two companies will jointly build a new power battery plant in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to $3.5 billion in the new plant. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license its battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the entire vehicle, and some of the equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter the Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The battery factory will have an annual production capacity of 5 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households for a day.</p><p>The project is led by PowerX, a renewable energy startup founded in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As its driving force, PowerX has turned its attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries, rather than the current mainstream product of stationary batteries—ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at its new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging stations in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese enterprises accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies hold an overwhelming advantage in the automotive battery sector, which is the main battleground.</p><p>Data from South Korea's SNE survey shows that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>CATL ranks first, and CATL ranks second.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The top two spots are both occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten companies in terms of global market share, six are Chinese, with a total market share exceeding 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China is also leading other countries in the world in terms of the speed of expansion of the electric vehicle market. Since 2010, China has issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and provided preferential treatment in areas such as the location of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, CATL of China, the world's largest automotive battery company, is also at the forefront.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that a single charge of the company's battery can enable a pure electric vehicle to travel more than 700 kilometers. CATL will launch its \"M3P\" battery, which is an improved version of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in 2023. Its driving range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion battery, and are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Prior to this, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not very popular in the United States because they had worse battery life than batteries such as NMC, but they could be charged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said that range is considered too important for American drivers to sacrifice for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have suggested that you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is...<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, the cost of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt is also rising.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also surged. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where working conditions are extremely harsh. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to levels about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery,\" the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are evident.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has become cheaper in the United States.</b>Furthermore, driven by federal government subsidies, the widespread adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, potentially reducing drivers' concerns about battery life. From a safety perspective, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>RISK WARNING AND DISCLAIMER</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9940533953,"gmtCreate":1678019317273,"gmtModify":1678019321152,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9940533953","repostId":"2317151532","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2317151532","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1678005276,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2317151532?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-05 16:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2317151532","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, popular in China, are gradually expanding their market share in the US and Japanese automotive markets.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually increases, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also gradually coming into people's view and becoming the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. Technological advancements have also improved battery capacity, thereby extending the original driving range. In recent years, they have become very popular among automakers.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the electric vehicle battery capacity sold in China. In the United States, this figure was only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But this trend is about to change—all signs indicate that this battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle market in the United States and Japan and seizing market share from traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States has launched a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.</h2>Recently, startup Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after its new $1.6 billion factory goes into operation next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux stated,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly sparked a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is beginning to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that...<b>All major automakers will prefer to use this battery in entry-level electric vehicles; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36% of the market share of pure electric vehicle batteries in 2025, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery startup Kore Power also predicts that demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The company's plant, scheduled to open in Arizona by the end of 2024, will have two assembly lines: one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American car manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>They are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford Motor Company announced that the two companies will jointly build a new power battery plant in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to $3.5 billion in the new plant. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license its battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the entire vehicle, and some of the equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter the Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The battery factory will have an annual production capacity of 5 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households for a day.</p><p>The project is led by PowerX, a renewable energy startup founded in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As its driving force, PowerX has turned its attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries, rather than the current mainstream product of stationary batteries—ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at its new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging stations in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese enterprises accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies hold an overwhelming advantage in the automotive battery sector, which is the main battleground.</p><p>Data from South Korea's SNE survey shows that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>CATL ranks first, and CATL ranks second.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The top two spots are both occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten companies in terms of global market share, six are Chinese, with a total market share exceeding 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China is also leading other countries in the world in terms of the speed of expansion of the electric vehicle market. Since 2010, China has issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and provided preferential treatment in areas such as the location of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, CATL of China, the world's largest automotive battery company, is also at the forefront.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that a single charge of the company's battery can enable a pure electric vehicle to travel more than 700 kilometers. CATL will launch its \"M3P\" battery, which is an improved version of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in 2023. Its driving range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion battery, and are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Prior to this, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not very popular in the United States because they had worse battery life than batteries such as NMC, but they could be charged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said that range is considered too important for American drivers to sacrifice for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have suggested that you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is...<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, the cost of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt is also rising.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also surged. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where working conditions are extremely harsh. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to levels about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery,\" the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are evident.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has become cheaper in the United States.</b>Furthermore, driven by federal government subsidies, the widespread adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, potentially reducing drivers' concerns about battery life. From a safety perspective, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>RISK WARNING AND DISCLAIMER</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese batteries have conquered the US and Japan, propelling lithium iron phosphate to the top of the electric vehicle market.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-05 16:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lithium iron phosphate batteries, popular in China, are gradually expanding their market share in the US and Japanese automotive markets.</p><p>As the share of pure electric vehicles in the global automotive market gradually increases, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also gradually coming into people's view and becoming the focus. Lithium iron phosphate batteries have the advantages of low price and high safety. Technological advancements have also improved battery capacity, thereby extending the original driving range. In recent years, they have become very popular among automakers.</p><p>Research by consulting firm Adamas Intelligence shows that last year, lithium iron phosphate battery technology accounted for about half of the electric vehicle battery capacity sold in China. In the United States, this figure was only 9%, and even zero the previous year. But this trend is about to change—all signs indicate that this battery technology, which is popular in China, is entering the electric vehicle market in the United States and Japan and seizing market share from traditional lithium batteries.</p><p><h2>The United States has launched a \"wave\" of lithium iron phosphate batteries.</h2>Recently, startup Our Next Energy announced that it will begin producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Michigan. The company will continue to expand after its new $1.6 billion factory goes into operation next year; By 2027, the company plans to provide enough lithium iron phosphate batteries for 200,000 electric vehicles.</p><p>According to media reports, Adamas Intelligence founder Ryan Castilloux stated,<b>Lithium iron phosphate batteries have undoubtedly sparked a second wave in the battery industry, and this wave is beginning to move westward.</b></p><p>Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, said that while lithium iron phosphate batteries account for no more than 20% of the announced battery capacity in the United States, the consulting firm expects that...<b>All major automakers will prefer to use this battery in entry-level electric vehicles; By the middle of the next decade, the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will increase to nearly 30%.</b></p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is predicted that lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach 36% of the market share of pure electric vehicle batteries in 2025, 14 percentage points higher than in 2020.</p><p>U.S. battery startup Kore Power also predicts that demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in the United States will continue to grow. The company's plant, scheduled to open in Arizona by the end of 2024, will have two assembly lines: one for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC), one of the mainstream lithium-ion batteries, and the other for lithium iron phosphate batteries.</p><p>American car manufacturers<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>They are also promoting the adoption of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Last month,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>At the same time, Ford Motor Company announced that the two companies will jointly build a new power battery plant in Michigan, USA, to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries, with an investment of up to $3.5 billion in the new plant. CATL will provide technical and service support for its production and license its battery patented technology; Ford engineers will be responsible for the integration of battery cells with the entire vehicle, and some of the equipment will come from China.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>An executive said in February that the company is also exploring the possibility of using lithium iron phosphate batteries to reduce costs.</p><p><h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries enter the Japanese auto market</h2>According to Japanese media reports, on February 3, Okayama Prefecture launched a plan to build Japan's largest battery factory, scheduled to be put into operation in 2024. The battery factory will have an annual production capacity of 5 gigawatt-hours (1 gigawatt is 1 billion watts), which can store the electricity consumption of 450,000 households for a day.</p><p>The project is led by PowerX, a renewable energy startup founded in 2021 (located in Minato-ku, Tokyo). As its driving force, PowerX has turned its attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries, rather than the current mainstream product of stationary batteries—ternary lithium batteries using cobalt or nickel. The company will use stationary lithium iron phosphate batteries mass-produced at its new factory and strive to build 7,000 pure electric vehicle charging stations in Japan by 2030.</p><p><h2>Chinese enterprises accelerate expansion</h2>Data shows that Chinese companies hold an overwhelming advantage in the automotive battery sector, which is the main battleground.</p><p>Data from South Korea's SNE survey shows that in terms of vehicle battery usage from January to November 2022,<b>CATL ranks first, and CATL ranks second.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">BYD</a>The top two spots are both occupied by Chinese companies. Among the top ten companies in terms of global market share, six are Chinese, with a total market share exceeding 60%.</b></p><p>At the same time, China is also leading other countries in the world in terms of the speed of expansion of the electric vehicle market. Since 2010, China has issued subsidies to new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and provided preferential treatment in areas such as the location of battery factories, accelerating the expansion of the battery industry.</p><p>In terms of technological innovation in lithium iron phosphate batteries, CATL of China, the world's largest automotive battery company, is also at the forefront.</p><p>In July 2022, Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, said that a single charge of the company's battery can enable a pure electric vehicle to travel more than 700 kilometers. CATL will launch its \"M3P\" battery, which is an improved version of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in 2023. Its driving range can exceed that of major pure electric vehicles such as Nissan's \"Leaf\".</p><p><h2>Why lithium iron phosphate batteries?</h2>Lithium iron phosphate batteries are a form of lithium-ion battery, and are \"cobalt-free\" batteries that use lithium, iron, and phosphorus. The electric vehicle batteries currently sold in the United States are mainly mainstream lithium-ion batteries such as nickel-manganese-cobalt NMC or nickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA).</p><p>Prior to this, lithium iron phosphate batteries were not very popular in the United States because they had worse battery life than batteries such as NMC, but they could be charged more times before their performance dropped significantly. Chloe Herrera, chief battery analyst at Lux Research, said that range is considered too important for American drivers to sacrifice for price: \"In the U.S. battery industry, if you talked to anyone four years ago, no one would have suggested that you use lithium iron phosphate batteries in your car.\"</p><p>One factor driving the new interest in lithium iron phosphate technology in the United States is...<b>The cost of nickel-rich batteries is much higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery technology. As electric vehicle sales grow, the cost of rare metals such as nickel and cobalt is also rising.</b></p><p>The price of nickel has more than doubled in the past three years; When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out a year ago, nickel prices also surged. On the other hand, most of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where working conditions are extremely harsh. Cobalt prices also rose sharply between 2020 and 2022 before falling back to levels about three years ago. As a typical \"cobalt-free battery,\" the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are evident.</p><p><b>As patents expire, the price of lithium iron phosphate battery technology has become cheaper in the United States.</b>Furthermore, driven by federal government subsidies, the widespread adoption of public charging stations will accelerate, potentially reducing drivers' concerns about battery life. From a safety perspective, lithium iron phosphate batteries are also less likely to catch fire than nickel-rich batteries.</p><p>RISK WARNING AND DISCLAIMER</p><p>The market is risky; invest with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate to their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71508db02e3f35325f3ef64850795280","relate_stocks":{"NCA":"纽文加州市政价值基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2317151532","content_text":"在中国广受欢迎的磷酸铁锂电池，正逐渐在美国和日本的汽车市场扩大份额。随着纯电动汽车在全球汽车市场的份额逐渐攀升，磷酸铁锂电池也逐渐进入人们的视野并成为焦点。磷酸铁锂电池具有价格低廉、安全性高的优点，还通过技术提升改进了电池容量，从而延长了原本的续航里程，近年来十分受车企的青睐。咨询公司 Adamas Intelligence 的研究显示，去年，磷酸铁锂电池技术占中国销售电动汽车电池容量的一半左右；而在美国这一比例仅为9%，在前一年甚至为零。但这一趋势即将发生变化——种种迹象显示，这项在中国风靡的电池技术正在进军美国和日本的电动汽车市场，并抢占传统锂电池的市场份额。美国掀起磷酸铁锂电池的“浪潮”近日，初创企业 Our Next Energy 宣布将开始在密歇根州生产磷酸铁锂电池。在明年16亿美元的新工厂投产后，该公司将继续进行扩张；到2027年，该公司计划为20万辆电动汽车提供足够的磷酸铁锂电池。据媒体报道，Adamas Intelligence 创始人 Ryan Castilloux 表示，磷酸铁锂电池无疑在电池行业掀起了第二次浪潮，而这一浪潮正开始向西方移动。Adamas Intelligence的数据和分析主管 Alla Kolesnikova 表示，虽然在美国已宣布的电池产能中，磷酸铁锂电池的比例不超过20%，但该咨询公司预计，所有主要汽车制造商都将倾向于在入门级电动汽车上使用该电池；在下一个十年的中期，美国磷酸铁锂电池的份额将提高至接近30%。据高盛预测，从2025年的纯电动汽车用电池份额来看，磷酸铁锂电池将达到36％，比2020年高出14个百分点。美国电池初创企业 Kore Power 也预计，美国对磷酸铁锂电池的需求将不断增长。该公司计划于2024年底在亚利桑那州开设的工厂将有两条装配线，一条用于主流锂离子电池之一——镍锰钴（NMC），另一条用于磷酸铁锂电池。美国汽车制造商特斯拉和福特汽车等也正在推进采用磷酸铁锂电池。上个月，宁德时代和福特汽车同时宣布，双方将在美国密歇根州新建动力电池工厂合作生产磷酸铁锂电池，新工厂投资高达35亿美元。宁德时代将为其生产提供技术与服务支持，就电池专利技术进行许可；福特工程师将会负责电芯与整车集成工作，部分设备来自中国。通用汽车的一位高管在2月份表示，该公司也正在探索使用磷酸铁锂电池来降低成本的可能性。磷酸铁锂电池进军日本车市据日媒报道，2月3日，日本冈山县启动了新建日本最大规模蓄电池工厂的计划，预定2024年投产，蓄电池年产能为5吉瓦时（1吉瓦为10亿瓦），可储存45万户家庭一天的用电量。主导该项目的是2021年成立的可再生能源初创企业 PowerX（位于东京都港区）。作为原动力，PowerX 将目光投向了磷酸铁锂电池，而不是目前固定型蓄电池的主流产品——使用钴或镍的三元锂电池。该公司将使用新工厂量产的固定型磷酸铁锂电池，力争2030年前在日本建设7000处纯电动汽车充电设备。中国企业加速扩张数据显示，在作为主战场的车载用电池领域，中国企业占据压倒性优势。韩国SNE调查的数据显示，在2022年1至11月车载电池使用量上，排在第一的是宁德时代，第二位是比亚迪，前两位都被中国企业占据。全球份额前十的企业中，中国企业有6家，总份额超过6成。与此同时，中国在电动汽车市场的扩张速度方面也领跑全球其他国家。2010年以后，中国向纯电动汽车等新能源汽车发放补贴，在电池工厂的选址等方面也提供优惠，电池产业加快扩大。在磷酸铁锂电池的技术革新方面，一马当先的也是全球最大的车载电池企业——中国的宁德时代。2022年7月，宁德时代首席科学家吴凯表示，该公司的电池充电一次可以使纯电动汽车续航700公里以上。宁德时代将于2023年推出由磷酸铁锂电池改进而来的“M3P”电池。续航距离可超过日产汽车的“Leaf”等主要纯电动汽车。为什么是磷酸铁锂电池？磷酸铁锂电池是锂离子电池的一种形式，是使用锂、铁、磷的“无钴”电池。美国目前销售的电动汽车电池主要是镍锰钴NMC或镍钴铝（NCA）这种主流锂离子电池。在此之前，磷酸铁锂电池在美国一直不太受欢迎，因为它的续航能力比NMC等电池更差，但在性能大幅下降之前可以充电更多次。Lux Research 首席电池分析师 Chloe Herrera 说，对于美国司机来说，续航能力被视为太重要了，不能为了价格而牺牲它：“在美国电池行业，如果你在四年前与任何人交谈，没有人会建议你在汽车上使用磷酸铁锂电池。”而推动美国对磷酸铁锂技术产生新兴趣的一个因素是，富镍电池的成本远高于磷酸铁锂电池技术。随着电动汽车销量的增长，镍和钴等稀有金属的成本也在上升。在过去三年里，镍的价格翻了一倍多；一年前俄乌冲突爆发时，镍价也大幅飙升。而另一边，世界上大部分的钴都是在刚果民主共和国开采的，那里工作条件十分恶劣。在2020年至2022年期间，钴价也大幅上涨，然后才回落至大约三年前的水平。作为典型的“无钴电池”，磷酸铁锂电池的优势可见一斑。随着专利到期，磷酸铁锂电池技术的价格在美国也变得更加低廉。此外，在联邦政府补贴的推动下，公共充电站的普及将会加速，可能会减少司机对电池续航能力的担忧。从安全性上来看，磷酸铁锂电池也比富镍电池更不容易着火。风险提示及免责条款市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927731374,"gmtCreate":1672587259998,"gmtModify":1676538707879,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927731374","repostId":"9927108869","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9927108869,"gmtCreate":1672412401351,"gmtModify":1676538687732,"author":{"id":"3527667628464496","authorId":"3527667628464496","name":"Tiger_Newspress","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667628464496","idStr":"3527667628464496"},"themes":[],"title":"Meme Stocks Slid in Morning Trading","htmlText":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%;&nbsp;AMC&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%;&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%.Shares of firms such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC(AMC)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>, and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a> surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","listText":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a>&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;4%;&nbsp;AMC&nbsp;fell&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;3%;&nbsp;BlackBerry&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%.Shares of firms such as <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC(AMC)$</a>, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>, and <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BBBY\">$Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY)$</a> surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","text":"Meme stocks slid in morning trading.$Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ fell nearly 4%; AMC fell nearly 3%; BlackBerry fell over 2%.Shares of firms such as $AMC(AMC)$, $GameStop(GME)$, and $Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY)$ surged in January 2021 amid heavy interest from both short sellers betting against the stocks, and retail traders on social media sites such as Reddit and Twitter. After short bets blew up that month, Wall Street firms wary of another short squeeze began considering data on online ticker chatter.Those stocks may be some of the most prominent meme stocks, but t","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/887e6454d6a3e69c4b2ea3e81d13cbfd","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927108869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967547059,"gmtCreate":1670366412872,"gmtModify":1676538351217,"author":{"id":"4093128510785090","authorId":"4093128510785090","name":"钱包君你要振作起来","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a2ffac9e8fd1b3d354c99cc508527878","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093128510785090","idStr":"4093128510785090"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"good","listText":"good","text":"good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967547059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}