Some thoughts from attending the Yunqi Conference: 1. Although the cost of inference has been greatly reduced (the call price of Tongyi Qianwen API on Alibaba Cloud Bailian has dropped by 97%), scaling laws are still in effect, which requires manufacturers to increase capital expenditures to solve the problem. Wu Yongming said that "the investment threshold for advanced model competition in the world will reach billions and tens of billions of US dollars." The industry still focuses on capital investment. In the future, who will win the big model will not only be determined by technology, but also by the computing power reserves accumulated by funds; 2. At present, the application of AIGC is still at the mobile app stage (from ChatGPT to domestic manufacturers, all use apps as the main pat

$XIAOMI-W(01810)$  1. As the first car of the Xiaomi automobile brand, Xiaomi SU7 has achieved "delivery as soon as it is released, and volume increases as soon as it is delivered". It has reached a monthly delivery level of 10,000 units in 3 months, and is expected to deliver more than 100,000 units in November 2024, and a total of more than 120,000 units in 2024 (actually expected to be higher), far ahead of the same period level after the first car of other new car-making forces started delivery. 2. It is extremely difficult for the first car of a new car brand to succeed, because in addition to obtaining user orders, it is also necessary to manage an extremely complex automobile supply chain, factory produc

Happy Mid Autumn Festival [Miser][Miser][Miser]

Micron Technology, Inc.'s third quarter fiscal year 2024 financial results for some basic analysis. In terms of revenue, the revenue for this quarter was $6.811 billion, a 17% increase from $5.824 billion in the previous quarter, and also significantly exceeded the $3.752 billion in the same period last year, showing a clear growth momentum. In terms of net profit, according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the net income for this quarter was $332 million, or $0.30 per share, compared with $122 million in the previous quarter and a loss of $668 million in the same period last year. Under non-GAAP standards, the net income for this quarter was $702 million, or $0.62 per share, compared with $582 million in the previous quarter and a loss of $603 million in the same period

If nothing unexpected happens$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   Tesla.US's Grand Plan 4 will put electric vehicles in a secondary category. At present, even in China, where the new energy vehicle industry is the most developed, the leading companies have been valued as traditional car companies. As the penetration rate further exceeds 50%, the imagination of this industry will be greatly stifled, and the only variable will be intelligent driving. Unfortunately,$BYD COMPANY(01211)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$   BYD Co., Ltd.HK, as the leader, has basically planted its core indicato

$Apple(AAPL)$  ChatGPT is integrated into iOS, which is very unwise. I have been using this software since chatgpt2. At that time, the software was still very silly and often made mistakes, but it has been iterated several times. The cleverness is far beyond our imagination, you can use it to get any information you want, it will query any information currently exist on the Internet in the form of data, and you can even summarize it for you according to your search habits, and it will further explain what you don't understand. When this clever thing is not in the form of hardware or software, but relies on the network or operating system to integrate into the mobile phone, then the center of all your information will

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$  ’s financial report is predictably bad, just like the analysis I wrote earlier this year, but it also depends on what strategies they can use. With the current cash reserves on hand, developing new models of their own will only cause greater losses than the current losses. Just look at the Xi’an price list released by Sang Zhiwei today. Xiaopeng’s entire series starts at 30% off, including the X9. It can be seen that the competitive environment has been very bad so far this year (Xiaomi’s honeymoon period was mainly assisted by Tesla, which chose to maintain prices but not volume, so it naturally sank). It is best not to launch low-profit projects. The Ideal L6 next door has been precipitated for almo

It will further push the expectations of the secondary market down. Looking at the recent sales and orders, there is actually no big problem, but the market's judgment of value has always been a mystery. So far this year, except for the only king$BYD COMPANY(01211)$  BYD, the other variables are particularly large, and it is impossible to use rational analysis to do too much. I personally think that domestic new energy vehicle companies have now launched a wave of overly fierce value-zero competition system, which has led to the fact that car companies will not make money in the short term. Any bad news can immediately shatter the story that has been told for a long time, and funds have also begun to raise the

The mainland real estate market is undergoing in-depth transformation, and the technology-driven one-stop new residential service platform Shell$BEKE-W(02423)$ -W.HK's first-quarter performance is still stable, with a net income of 16.4 billion yuan (RMB ‧ the same below), which exceeds market expectations, and the adjusted net profit is 1.392 billion yuan. Among them, the "Three Wings" business has achieved remarkable results. The net income of home improvement home furnishing is 2.4 billion yuan, an increase of 71.1% year-on-year, and the income from housing leasing services has reached 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 189.3% year-on-year. Peng Yongdong, co-founder, chairman and CEO of Shell, said: "With the gradual role of the stock housing m

Many people think that$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$  Pinduoduo is very unfriendly to brands, or even anti-brand. I have been thinking about this issue, and today I will briefly talk about my understanding. My understanding is mainly to draw a direct conclusion by answering two questions. 1. Why do brands exist? What role have brands played in the long river of history? A trustworthy mass brand means excellent product strength and high-quality after-sales services. In a business society that is moving from disorder to order, a trustworthy brand is like a pearl in the dark night, which can reduce transaction costs and promote transaction speed and frequency. Why do many excellent brands move from a single product to dive

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  In the past week, there have been some observations in the United States, from the west coast to the east coast, regarding Tesla. Firstly, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the United States is still very low, which presents an opportunity for Tesla. The only Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer that can compete with Tesla globally has almost no chance of entering the US market on a large scale, which is not due to their capabilities but rather the result of political maneuvering. Secondly, when it comes to car purchases, Americans generally prioritize affordability, and there is a large number of used cars in circulation. This cultural phenomenon is similar to many Americans us

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$  $Li Auto(LI)$  $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$  The current problems are actually very similar to Xiaomi, and neither of them has a real positioning anchor. The concept conveyed by Xiaopeng through official channels and KOL has always been intelligent driving and maneuverability, but as I said when I analyzed SU7 before, these two attributes represent the demands of the mainstream market, and are more like a pan-product concept. You need to

Citigroup expects Xiaom$XIAOMI-W(01810)$   Group-W.HK SU7 to deliver 5,000 to 6,000 units in April, and about 55,000 to 70,000 units for the whole year. Currently, the delivery time of Xiaomi SU7 is as long as 6 months. If the production capacity cannot keep up with the demand, Xiaomi may encounter growth problems similar to that of Xiaopeng G6 last year. The bank estimates that Xiaomi will lose an average of 6,800 yuan for each SU7 sold in 2024, and the entire car manufacturing business will lose a total of 4.1 billion yuan. There is no scale effect in the early stage of car manufacturing, and it is normal to lose money. It is just a little cash flow. With sufficient order demand, Xiaomi's back-end car manufac

The Hong Kong stock market$HSI(HSI)$  gives people a feeling that there is gold everywhere.  Cyclical stocks: Needless to say, the super cycle of a commodity is coming. Gold stocks, represented by China Gold International and Zijin Mining, took the lead in showing, and then led Lingbao Gold Gold Lingbao Gold.HK, China Hanwang, Minmetals Resources, and China Nonferrous Mines to start a lifting model; at the same time, the aluminum stock China Hongqiao was in the second stage of aluminum stocks. It has also begun to be noticed by the market, and it is doubled in one breath.  Although it is not as good as the increase of Lingbao Gold, it is better than the low valuation. Most of these will continue to perf

$TENCENT(00700)$  Tencent's repurchase is already twice as much as the major shareholder's reduction, so in theory, Tencent's repurchase can completely offset the impact of the major shareholder's reduction. It's just that during the period when Tencent cannot repurchase, the major shareholder can reduce its holdings. During this period, if there is no capital inflow from the market, Tencent's stock price is likely to be hit down again. After all, when Tencent repurchased 1 billion every day, it is estimated that it did not rise significantly. Personally, I think 300 has become Tencent's new support level. Last year, the repurchase was almost the same as the reduction, and the stock price was probably hit to a low o

I agree$XIAOMI-W(01810)$  XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$ Whether automobiles can bring room for continued stock price increases in the medium to long term still depends on product power, brand power, and channel power. As a product with both brand + manufacturing, automatic control and self-research of core technology, rather than simple industrial chain integration, is the key to long-term competitiveness. What's more, there isn't much time left for the NEV knockout competition. The only thing Xiaomi can do now is increase the level of self-research and expand production capacity as soon as possible. With the support of a strong brand and safe cash flow, it's not impossible whether Xiaomi can rebuild a Xiaomi and become

My answer: Singapore: Marina Bay Sands Australia: Sydney Opera House China: Temple of Heaven New Zealand: Sky Tower Hong Kong: Victoria Peak America: Apple Park

$Alibaba(BABA)$  $Alibaba(09988)$  Announced that the loss narrowed by 5.5% to HK$763 million last year, with a loss per share of HK$1.74. Excluding the impact of special items of non-operating nature, the adjusted loss narrowed by 10.6% to HK$607 million, and the EBITDA loss narrowed to HK$140 million during the period. No final dividend was paid. TVB The stock price fell 2.3% today, closing at HK$3.42. During the period, revenue fell 7% year-on-year to HK$3.323 billion. Among them, the Hong Kong TVB division recorded revenue of HK$1.4 billion, an increase of 8% year-on-year, while revenue from advertisers increased by 9%. Mainland

$TVB(00511)$  Announced that the loss narrowed by 5.5% to HK$763 million last year, with a loss per share of HK$1.74. Excluding the impact of special items of non-operating nature, the adjusted loss narrowed by 10.6% to HK$607 million, and the EBITDA loss narrowed to HK$140 million during the period. No final dividend was paid. TVB The stock price fell 2.3% today, closing at HK$3.42. During the period, revenue fell 7% year-on-year to HK$3.323 billion. Among them, the Hong Kong TVB division recorded revenue of HK$1.4 billion, an increase of 8% year-on-year, while revenue from advertisers increased by 9%. Mainland business revenue increased by 4% to 729 million yuan, benefiting from the growth of revenue from co-produ