$NIO Inc.(NIO)$  ’s financial report is predictably bad, just like the analysis I wrote earlier this year, but it also depends on what strategies they can use. With the current cash reserves on hand, developing new models of their own will only cause greater losses than the current losses. Just look at the Xi’an price list released by Sang Zhiwei today. Xiaopeng’s entire series starts at 30% off, including the X9. It can be seen that the competitive environment has been very bad so far this year (Xiaomi’s honeymoon period was mainly assisted by Tesla, which chose to maintain prices but not volume, so it naturally sank). It is best not to launch low-profit projects. The Ideal L6 next door has been precipitated for almost a month, and its performance is just barely meeting expectations according to Ideal’s own estimates, which is not a surprise. This is a super hexagonal 250,000-level medium-sized SUV.

Ledao’s expectations were not reflected in this season, presumably waiting for Q3 to take effect, but this year’s Q3 is likely to be BYD’s dynasty season, and the difficulty of the 200,000-level has increased sharply. No matter how powerful the battery swap is, it can’t beat the fuel tank. I personally am not very optimistic.

In fact, the life cycle of our ET and ES is longer than I thought. After all, the iteration of battery swap system models is not fast, and these models are not expensive now (under BAAS). Customers who really value this point have already made a move at a historical low price (at present, the policy is likely to decline and then rise, and only fools can't keep up with the volume).

In summary, the company is eating plain noodles this year, and for stocks, everyone should pull the trend line more and don't go against the trend. This is the only conclusion.

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