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JD.com Q4 Earnings: Positive Growth Trends, Bearish Macros

In an earnings season replete with mentions of "AI" and "autonomous technology", the earnings release by Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com Inc ( $JD.com(JD)$ or $JD.com, Inc.(JDCMF)$) - which easily ranks in the Top 5 or Top 10 e-commerce companies worldwide - stood out in that there was virtually no mention of either, despite sustained efforts in AI, Big Data and robotics over several years, continual development of drones for delivery for the better part of a decade, and the release of a ChatGPT-like large language model for enterprises last year. The company was deemed to have beaten analysts' expectations by a handsome margin, leading to a near-immediate rally in after-hours session on the day of the ear
JD.com Q4 Earnings: Positive Growth Trends, Bearish Macros

NIO Results 2023: Strong Sales, Weaker Earnings, Ambitious Goals

Models produced by Chinese carmaker NIO Inc ( $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ or $NIO Inc.(NIO.SI)$) are neither the cheapest nor the most expensive ones on offer in China's crowded automobile market; the addressable market can roughly be described as being the "middle-to-upper" income segment. Despite high technical watermarks, there are a number of other competitors that cater to this segment. Furthermore, this segment is arguably the most vulnerable to the economic headwinds China is beginning to feel (as described in an article published in December).  Its latest earnings release is stated to have missed analysts' expectations; however, this isn't likely to significantly impact on the stock's valuations since t
NIO Results 2023: Strong Sales, Weaker Earnings, Ambitious Goals

Baidu Q4: Why The Stock is Dropping Despite Massive Solid Earnings

In its earnings release for Q4 and FY 2023, various line items in Baidu, Inc ($Baidu(BIDU)$, $Baidu, Inc.(BAIDF)$ or $BIDU-SW(09888)$) – ostensibly China's answer to Google – has shown arguably the best performance in recent years. Despite this, the stock is said to have missed expectations resulting in the stock price dropping. Whether these expectations were high merit a closer look.  Trend Drilldown Baidu can be considered to have four distinct main businesses: "Core" which drives revenues much like Google Search does. "Core" also includes the Baidu App Store (much like Google Play) and Android-based smartphone operating system Yi.  "iQIYI" which
Baidu Q4: Why The Stock is Dropping Despite Massive Solid Earnings

Mercedes-Benz Q4: China Sales Dip, EV Transformation Delayed

Estimating long-term fiscal trends in German legacy powerhouse Mercedes-Benz Group AG ($Mercedes Benz Group AG(MBGAF)$ and $Mercedes Benz Group AG(MBGYY)$) have been slightly complicated by the after-effects of the "hive-off and spin-down" - followed by the public listing - of its truck/heavy vehicle division into Daimler Truck Holding AG ($DAIMLER TRUCK HLDG AG(DTGHF)$ and $DAIMLER TRUCK HLDG AG(DTRUY)$) in December 2021 as well as some segment reorganization. However, some interesting new line items and early trends are now apparent in its earnings release on Friday.  Trend Overview It was only in 2022 that Da
Mercedes-Benz Q4: China Sales Dip, EV Transformation Delayed

Ferrari: The "Horse" Dances for Good Reasons

Unlike its many contemporaries that operate multiple factories around the world to produce thousands of vehicles, Ferrari N.V. ( $Ferrari NV(RACE)$), once designated a "small volume manufacturer" (or SVM) by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA), has operated out of one factory in Italy to produce a little over 10,000 vehicles every year that more-or-less objectively can simply be described as "beautiful", with the cheapest model retailing for a little under a quarter of a million dollars. As trends go, the cheeky ticker "RACE" is entirely apropos for the Dancing Horse.  Trend Studies For the most part, Ferraris across prime regions have been largely stable with one notable exception - Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, wherein sale
Ferrari: The "Horse" Dances for Good Reasons

[ICYMI Due to NY] Coinbase Q4: Regained Profitability, New Markets

In its earnings release for Q4 2023 and the full year, Coinbase ($Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ concluded its introduction by contending that it is a fundamentally stronger company today than a year ago, which is in a strong financial position to capitalize on the opportunities ahead. Fiscally, this is true as line item trends relative to the company’s net revenue exhibit: While technology expenses remain high, they’re about a billion dollars lower than in 2022. The business has always has a high throughput between revenue and net income except for 2022 where high technology expenses were incurred. In 2023, technology expenses are relatively lower than in the previous enabling pass-through to resume again. Trends in crypto volumes and investor seg
[ICYMI Due to NY] Coinbase Q4: Regained Profitability, New Markets

[ICYMI Due to NY] Airbnb Q4 Earnings: Growth Slowdown Continues

Airbnb, Inc ( $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ ) started out with the goal of being “different” from mainstream hotels and lodges by offering experiences via what could be construed as “VERY short-term leases” with the lowest amount of hassle from end users. In a time of “revenge spending”, i.e. an incremental increase in consumer spending after an unprecedented adverse economic event, the company was supposed to do well. Despite this, the stock’s earnings per share (EPS) missed analysts’ consensus expectations of $0.70. The reasons why are an interplay of a number of ancillary factors paired with key line item trends. Trend Studies In absolute terms, the company’s line item trends are a decidedly mixed bag when comparing yearly trends (“1st-order”) vs trend
[ICYMI Due to NY] Airbnb Q4 Earnings: Growth Slowdown Continues

[ICYMI Due to NY] Did Uber Get a "Taylor Swift Bump" in 2023?

It could be argued that no other company epitomizes the “gig economy” quite like Uber Technologies, Inc ($Uber(UBER)$) does. “Gig” companies offer services often for free to end users, contend with intense competition due to their inherent reproducibility, and have long periods of negative fiscals as they spend their way through successful years on advertising, new service rollouts and promotions to keep their end users engaged. On the 7th of February, Uber announced its Q4 results that highlighted that the company is nearing a breakout from the red: for the first time since 2018, the company’s net income seemingly registered a decisively positive net income of over $1.4 billion for the entire year of 2023. In an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box’
[ICYMI Due to NY] Did Uber Get a "Taylor Swift Bump" in 2023?

[ICYMI Due to NY] Palantir Q4: Government Revenues Rising

Palantir Technologies Inc ($Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$), arguably one of the world’s few major “pure play” AI companies that are (at least currently) publicly traded, has had a stalwart 2023. AI has been the dominant theme for investment preferences through most of the previous year and early trends indicate that it will remain a central focus through at least two quarters of the current year. Trends extrapolated via its latest earnings release indicate that the company has a number of positives. The nature of the company’s work, however, might be a complication of sorts for some investors. Trend Studies In the previous year, the company’s net income turned positive for the first time since the company went public. Evaluating key line items
[ICYMI Due to NY] Palantir Q4: Government Revenues Rising

Nvidia Q4 Earnings: Solid Company, Risky Stock

While Nvidia’s ($NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$) executives might be celebrating this earnings season, many professional investors have many reasons to give pause. Central to this is the contention that the company’s outlook versus that of the stock is increasingly divorced. The Good: Solid Earnings and a Shift in Consumer Mix Key line items are examined with a "first-order" matrix to inspect their year-on-year change as well as a "second-order" matrix to winnow out sustained growth trends. The conclusions therein are singularly interesting: After Fiscal Year (FY) 2022, there has been explosive change in the largely-orderly shifts in trends. In the present FY: Revenue growth outpaces cost of revenue threefold while cost of operations increases a paltry
Nvidia Q4 Earnings: Solid Company, Risky Stock

Amazon: AWS Alone Can't be a Growth Driver

Shortly after Amazon.com Inc ( $Amazon.com(AMZN)$) released its earnings for Q4 2023 on the 1st of February, the stock experienced a rather quick rally northwards. The bulk of the rationale for this was attributed to strong holiday sales in Q4. However, buried deep within its numbers and assertions made during the earnings call lie an interesting rationale for a buy-in: the company's essentially is looking to become a "growth stock" again.  A Deep Trend Drilldown Amazon is a complicated mess: three entirely different businesses - e-commerce, cloud solutions and media - reside within a single stock essentially branded as a "tech" company which can finance itself (if it chooses to) by issuing debt with a relatively lower yield since "tech" bond
Amazon: AWS Alone Can't be a Growth Driver

Google Q4 Earnings and Beyond: Missing an AI Edge?

“Magnificent Seven” colossus Alphabet Inc ( $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$) announced its Q4 earnings for 2023 on the 30th of January. Despite an uptick in overall revenues and income, the stock immediately took a tumble due to the stock missing “expectations”. Said expectations are rather nuanced and gain importance in the current macroeconomic/market outlook. Trend Studies Given how keenly this stock features in investor sentiment (and its massive size in most broad market indices/ETFs), the fact pattern presented in its trends merits a highly nuanced look. First off, the company’s net revenues are analyzed on a regional basis under both first- and second-order terms. Region-wise, YoY trends i
Google Q4 Earnings and Beyond: Missing an AI Edge?

XPeng’s Flying Car Won't Be Lifting the Stock For a While

In 2023, "pure play" electric vehicle (EV) company BYD ($BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ and $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDF)$) stated that it has achieved a milestone: it sold a little over 3.02 million cars. China's automobile association estimated that 89.5% of BYD's sales were in the People's Republic of China - easily making it the biggest EV maker in China's crowded marketplace.  There was another very significant point of consideration: BYD was the largest overall car seller in China for the year of 2023 as well, with its nearest competitor - the FAW-Volkswagen combine - trailing a full 32% behind. There are two points to consider here. Firstly: EVs, even with subsidies (which are cons
XPeng’s Flying Car Won't Be Lifting the Stock For a While

UBS: Twisting in the Wind

After the takeover of Credit Suisse following its near collapse in 2023, historic fellow Swiss bank UBS ( $UBS Group AG(UBS)$) now possesses assets that are 2.5 times that of its homeland Switzerland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Given its new size and increased access to clients through Credit Suisse’s network, it’s entirely logical to assume that this will prove to be a boost to the company’s stock. Shortly after the takeover was approved by regulators and announced on the 19th of March 2023, the company’s stock steadily extended gains over both the meandering Nasdaq Financial-100 index (IXF) as well as the broad market S&P 500 ($S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $SPDR S&a
UBS: Twisting in the Wind

Indian Markets vs U.S. and British Markets: Significant Differences in Market Behaviour

On the 12th of January, India's equity markets scored yet another all-time high driven by a bevy of Information Technology (IT) stocks posting an encouraging forward outlook and over 50 small-cap stocks logging a double digit percentage rise in their stock prices in the course of a single week. On a 6-year basis, i.e. from the start of 2018 till the present, the relative performance can be laid out to show that this was no flash in the pan. Between the U.S.' Nasdaq-100 ($NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ or $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ ) and S&P 500 ($S&P 500(.SPX)$ or $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ), the United Kingdom's F
Indian Markets vs U.S. and British Markets: Significant Differences in Market Behaviour

Tech Stock Retreat Vs. "The Landing"

Almost as if a switch was pressed, the Nasdaq Composite - which encapsulates almost all Nasdaq-listed stocks - collapsed 1.63% in the first day of trading from the highs of 2023. This was the 4th worst start to a new year since 1972 and only the 5th time that it has started a year with a one-day drop of more than 1.5%. In the first week of the year, the index fell another 1.64%. Within the "tech heavy" Nasdaq-100 ($NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ or $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$), pharmaceuticals ruled the roost in terms of momentum; tech was virtually nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 list - a massive shift in trends seen in Q3 and Q4 of 2023. In holistic terms, the index isn't rising: the one-day drop for the Nasdaq
Tech Stock Retreat Vs. "The Landing"
avatarShenGuang
2023-12-15

S&P 500 Forecast: 2023 and The Year Ahead

In the Year Till Date (YTD) as of the 11th of December, the S&P 500 has risen to around 20.5%. For all intents and purposes, the index will close the year at a net positive albeit nowhere close to the highs seen in July. Since the S&P 500 is widely considered to be the "U.S. market", there is an imputation in some quarters that inflation/affordability concerns – along with other issues – have been shrugged off by key participants. This isn't exactly true.  Historical Sector Analysis A historical analysis of the index – along with a consideration of the somewhat-interrelated evolution of aggregated investor favour and the American economic engine – yields some fascinating insights: In the year after the levee broke on the subprime mortgage  market (i.e. 2009), there was a
S&P 500 Forecast: 2023 and The Year Ahead
avatarShenGuang
2023-11-07

United SG Dynamic Income Fund: An Interesting Choice for Benchmarking

Earlier today, LG – the South Korean conglomerate known for home appliances and electric vehicle battery components – made a surprising announcement: its AI research division partnered with SoftBank-backed Qraft Technologies to launch the LG Qraft AI-Powered US Large-Cap Core ETF ($LG QRAFT AI-POWERED U.S. LARGE CAP CORE ETF(LQAI)$) on the New York Stock Exchange. This ETF will use a proprietary LG forecasting tool to focus on 100 large US companies, rebalancing every four weeks while seeking to outperform the S&P 500. The methodology hinges on the AI analysing a trove of financial and textual data to first exclude hundreds of would-be holdings based on downside risk and then reweigh the portfolio of approved stocks based on their perceived up
United SG Dynamic Income Fund: An Interesting Choice for Benchmarking
avatarShenGuang
2023-10-25

Tesla Q3 YTD: Rising Deliveries, Dropping Earnings

On the 18th of October, Tesla Inc ($Tesla Motors(TSLA)$) released the 3rd quarter earnings for its Financial Year (FY) 2023. The trends and metrics in the results show the company is going through a rather complicated phase.  Delivery Trends: Mixed or Good? At current rates, the Model S/X is a higher-priced (and estimably higher-margin) products than the more diminutively-margined Model 3/Y.  The company's total production and delivery trends, across 9 months of the current FY, are well near par that of total numbers of the previous FY. Trends in the product mix, however, show the company's brand appeal shifting in the addressable customer segments. While the “pricier” models are being produced more-or-less at par, sales have been dipp
Tesla Q3 YTD: Rising Deliveries, Dropping Earnings
avatarShenGuang
2023-10-17

Israel vs Hamas: Limited Mid-Term Market Effects

As per a number of accounts from sources close to Hamas as well as its own spokesperson on its Telegram channel, Hamas' leadership spent a number of years preparing for the breakout assault on Israel in a bid to challenge the status quo. Dubbed "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood", Hamas and its allies surged into southern Israel on the 7th of October using trucks, pickup trucks, motorcycles, bulldozers, speedboats and paragliders to inflict the bloodiest day in Israel's history.  The events that unfolded since had a number of limited effects on markets worldwide. While a number of banks have highlighted uncertainty in the year ahead on account of the events unfolding in Israel as well as the deepening crisis in Ukraine, markets are generally expected to continue "as-is" for now on account
Israel vs Hamas: Limited Mid-Term Market Effects

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