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12-20 17:02

U.S. Dollar Worries Boost Bitcoin and Coinbase Valuations

Over the past one year till date, the price performance of Bitcoin ($Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust(BTC)$) has been staggering, with a nearly 127% increase since the 14th of December last year till early trends on the 16th of December. This increase in interest (and valuation) is reflected in the rise of Coinbase Inc ( $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$) - the premier exchange of choice for a rising number of large institutional investors for all products crypto-related - wherein its stock has risen 109% in the same period.  Bitcoin vis-à-vis Fiat Currencies (Mostly the Dollar) Bitcoin has long been touted as a viable alternative - mostly the U.S. dollar in the face of U.S. government debt continuing to pile
U.S. Dollar Worries Boost Bitcoin and Coinbase Valuations

Why Nvidia Seems Shaky DESPITE Solid Earnings

American chipmaker Nvidia Inc's ($NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$) earnings release for Q3 2024 (or "FY 2025" in their reporting convention) wasn't expected to be a disappointment and it certainly wasn't: adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.81 cents against an expectation of $0.75 while revenue ran at $35.08 billion versus an expectation of $33.16 billion.  However, the share price instantly plunged 2% in after-hours trading and an overall "deceleration" in share price growth is being implied. The reasons for this are somewhat complex.  Trend Drilldown In terms of revenue, the company's line item trends have plenty to cheer. As one drills down through different layers, however, there is some signs of dampening.  Note: The a
Why Nvidia Seems Shaky DESPITE Solid Earnings

NIO Stock: Despite Mixed H1 Results, Deliveries Stay Strong and Company Broadens Its Market

Chinese “pure play” electric vehicle carmaker NIO Inc. ($NIO Inc.(NIO)$ or $NIO Inc.(NIO.SI)$ ) — a long-touted “Tesla Killer” — announced its second quarter (Q2) earnings for its Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 on the 5th of September. By no means was the stock a massive earner in the Year Till Date (YTD) until then. However, the stock had risen by a massive 47.35% from a month before the earnings release. Since the release and as of the 11th, the stock has held steady. Early trends for the 12th indicate a significant downturn in the single-digit percentage range. Interestingly, the bulk of the price accrual seen in the American Depositary Share (ADS) noticeably occurred during the first week of Se
NIO Stock: Despite Mixed H1 Results, Deliveries Stay Strong and Company Broadens Its Market

Why Nvidia is a "Disaster" *Despite* Beating Expectations

Leading AI-relevant chipmaker Nvidia Inc's (ticker: $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$) earnings for its second quarter (Q2) beat analysts' consensus estimates by delivering $30.04 billion versus an expectation of $28.7 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.68 versus an expectation of $0.64. Despite projecting $32.5 billion in revenue over the current quarter versus expectations of $31.7 billion and Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress expressing confidence in the company being able to several billion dollars in value of its next-generation Blackwell products (currently being tested as samples) in its fourth quarter, the company's stock dropped by 8% in extended trading. When markets opened, the stock fell another 6.38%.
Why Nvidia is a "Disaster" *Despite* Beating Expectations

Why Institutional Investors Favour Baidu *Despite* Missing Earnings Expectations

Over the course of the second quarter (Q2) of the calendar year, a number of institutional investors – with Scion Asset Management run by Michael Burry of "The Big Short" fame finding particular mention in the media – loaded up on shares of China search giant Baidu, Inc ( $Baidu(BIDU)$ in the U.S.; $BIDU-SW(09888)$ in HK) as it floundered. The stock has notably not been doing well over the course of the Year Till Date (YTD) and its Q2 earnings were decidedly mixed: while revenue did drop on a quarter-on-quarter basis by 0.4%, it delivered ¥33.93 billion ($4.67 billion) as opposed to analysts' average estimate of ¥33.55 billion.  There are likely several factors behind the uptick in share "buy-i
Why Institutional Investors Favour Baidu *Despite* Missing Earnings Expectations

Why Alibaba Stock Rose *Despite* Missing Earnings Expectations

In 2019, Jack Ma, the "chief founder" of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (ticker: $Alibaba(BABA)$), Jack Ma, stepped down as chairman and gave way to co-founder Daniel Zhang Yong who rapidly went on to be enter the roster of Time Magazine's 100 most influential people in 2020. Alibaba's sprawling business empire was long considered to be driven by those in the chairman's seat. This, however, changed in April 2023 when the company announced that it will split into 6 units - each of which will managed by its own CEO and board of directors. These units will be free to pursue independent fundraising and a public listing. Taiwanese-Canadian lawyer and long-time Hong Kong resident Joseph Chung-Hsin Tsai – who left a $700,000-a-year job with Sweden's Walle
Why Alibaba Stock Rose *Despite* Missing Earnings Expectations

Super Micro Computer (Supermicro) Q2/FY 2024: Compensation Decimates Income, Server Demand Outlook Shaky

San Jose-headquartered Super Micro Computer, Inc ($SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ ) - better known as "Supermicro" - had been in operation for a long time and was relatively unmarkable in that it was just one of a number of companies building servers and storage systems for computing hardware (among other server-related areas). The company doesn't manufacture chips, per se, but rather assembles the server around a chipmaker's products in the most efficient manner. The founder, Charles Liang, holds several patents in server technology and the company went on to become one of the largest producers of high-performance and high-efficiency servers. His wife was the treasurer until 2019 (she remains on the board of directors) and his brothers run
Super Micro Computer (Supermicro) Q2/FY 2024: Compensation Decimates Income, Server Demand Outlook Shaky

Palantir Q2 Earnings: Future Conflicts Equal Opportunity?

Denver-based Palantir, Inc ($Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$) released its Q2 earnings after markets closed on the 5th of August. While analysts had estimated earnings per share (EPS) at $0.08 on revenue of $653 million, the company's actual EPS of $0.09 were earned on the back of revenues of $678 million. Immediately following the earnings, the stock surged during both extended trading on the 5th as well as early trading on the 6th. On the 6th alone, it closed 10% higher. As it stands, trends as of the first half (H1) of the year have several milestones seemingly on the verge of being made.  Trend Drilldown 2023 was a transformative year for the company's fortunes, with H1 2024 performance showing early trends
Palantir Q2 Earnings: Future Conflicts Equal Opportunity?

Why Amazon Looks Weak after Q2 Results

It has been a while since Amazon.com, Inc ($Amazon.com(AMZN)$) went from being an "e-commerce company with a quirky cloud computing effort" to a "cloud computing company with a costly e-commerce gig and a content business thrown in". In 2023, the company advanced on its plans to shake the status quo by: building outreach to independent third-party merchants by and their customers by offering additional services such as "Fulfillment by Amazon" (FBA) in a bid to stymie the likes of Shopify; capturing market share away from Google and Meta Platforms in the business of online advertising (after all, Amazon is a sellers' platform); continuing to make their content business the means of converting shoppers to subscribers and vice versa. Early in the mor
Why Amazon Looks Weak after Q2 Results

AMD Q2 Earnings: Another Nvidia in the Making

Over the past few years, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc ($Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$) has always been a beat or two behind its ostensible cousin Nvidia (with their respective founders being literal cousins). AMD's latest earnings release for Q2 2024 posted modest gains against analysts' consensus expectations by posting revenues of $5.84 billion for the quarter versus an expectation of $5.72 billion and with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69 (adjusted) versus an expectation of $0.68.  The modest gain over expectations indicates that the company's growth was largely predictable and well in line with its ongoing transformation to becoming yet another Nvidia.  Trend Drilldown As early as 2021, AMD was driven by being both a long-sta
AMD Q2 Earnings: Another Nvidia in the Making

What TSMC's Post-Earnings (Q2) Means for Nvidia Stock Valuation

On the 18th of July, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$), the principal foundry for both Nvidia ($NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$) and AMD ($Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$) chips, announced its Q2 results. At 673.51 billion New Taiwan dollars (NT$) in revenue versus expectations of NT$657.58 billion and a net income of NT$247.85 billion versus an expectation of NT$238.8 billion, it could be argued there is cause for cheer. However, an increasing number of investors have concerns for the sector as a whole.  Trend Drilldown At first blush, the line item trends for the first six months of 2024 are generally positive
What TSMC's Post-Earnings (Q2) Means for Nvidia Stock Valuation

Goldman Sachs Q2/H1 2024: Top-Tier Results, Concerns On Industry Outlook

Banks are recession favorites for a number of good reasons: when rates stay high, lending activities generate greater revenue. When crunch times hit businesses, advisory services regarding restructuring, debt underwriting, et al. generate greater revenue. Banks tend to be "value" investments; there's often very little by way of costly technology accruing obsolescence or over-planned facilities (beyond a handful of very nice HQs). The head honchos' cleaver tends to run swift and true if "deadweight" needs to be shed deadweight, whatever said weight tends to be. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ($Goldman Sachs(GS)$) stands very tall among all its peers numbering in the tens of thousands around the world: as per the Financial Stability Board established b
Goldman Sachs Q2/H1 2024: Top-Tier Results, Concerns On Industry Outlook

Will a Trump Presidency Cause Recession?

In the history of televised debates between U.S. presidential contenders since 1960, the recent one held between the incumbent President Joe Biden and the challenger former President Donald Trump stood leagues apart from the first ever televised debate that was held between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy. In the first, participants were fairly convivial with each other while in the most recent one, participants were abrasive and held back from talking/shouting over each other by moderators muting each participant's microphone while the other was speaking. In the first, rebuttals were delivered with a modicum of calm and respect while in the latest, one contender (Biden) called the other (Trump) a "sucker" and "loser" with the "morals of an alley cat".  Viewers of the first-eve
Will a Trump Presidency Cause Recession?

Why Some Investors are Long Tesla Despite the Odds

In the course of Tesla’s ( $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ) annual shareholders’ meeting on the 13th of June, shareholders once again approved the “all or nothing” pay package deal to Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Originally granted to Musk in 2018 and struck down by the court system in Delaware – where the company is incorporated – on account of the deal being formulated by a board that didn’t seem to be wholly independent of Musk, the re-approved deal isn’t entirely out of the woods yet in terms of a potential for another legal challenge. The deal also has the potential to significantly affect the company’s bottomline. Breaking Down the Deal The pay package deal awards Musk the option to be given 304 million shares at $23.33 per share. At 3.19 billion shares outst
Why Some Investors are Long Tesla Despite the Odds

Apple WWDC 2024: OpenAI Transformation?

Apple’s ($Apple(AAPL)$) 2024 Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is currently underway and all eyes rest on the company’s announcements to discern if new edges are being carved into its devices and services. There is ample good reason for this: as it stands, the company’s growth is showing signs of stagnation. Trend Analysis Relative to past full Financial Years (“FYs” which end in September), the first six months of the company’s current Financial Year might seem to some as being positive. If current trends continue, net sales would end about 10-20% above that seen in FY 2023. Cost of sales are expected to rise by a nearly commensurate amount, as so do both Net Income as well as diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS). This is a welcome change from Y
Apple WWDC 2024: OpenAI Transformation?

Can AMD Hit $1 Trillion Market Capitalization?

Nearly a month before Nvidia’s ($NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$) consensus-beating earnings for Q1, rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc ($Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$) released its earnings for the same period, which also beat consensus estimates. Both companies – often compared to each other – have had markedly different performance in the Year Till Date (YTD) up until this past Friday: while Nvidia had risen 127.6%, AMD had risen only 20.4%. This might be slightly unfair, given that both companies’ current addressable markets aren’t necessarily the same. Trend Drilldown Using the same comparison metrics as those employed in the article describing
Can AMD Hit $1 Trillion Market Capitalization?

Nvidia Q1: Data Center Surging, Geopolitical and Concentration Risks

Nvidia Inc's ( $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$) earnings release for the first quarter of the year (referred in its reporting convention as Q1 of FY 2025) held few surprises. As the previous article detailing the company's FY 2024 results described, the company had quite effectively swapped out its crypto miner and gamer niche in favour of "corporate" clients by continually burnishing its product offerings. By virtue of having a strong corporate clientele, the company was expected to have strong results and the company didn't disappoint.  Within the various line items and revenue segments, however, lie some causes for concern as well as the degree by which the company's performance
Nvidia Q1: Data Center Surging, Geopolitical and Concentration Risks

Meme Stock Frenzy Likely to Carry Over Into Next Week

This current week has had significant mentions of a "meme stock frenzy" as retail investors trooped back into the markets en masse with a strong interest of a growing set of stocks that have largely been forgotten as the "AI surge" and the "Magnificent Seven" drew away market breadth. So strong has been retail investor participation that trading in certain stocks were briefly halted a number of times on zero-commission brokerages such as Robinhood to account for the heavy demand.  The commonly attributed (and perhaps convenient) lynchpin for this phenomenon is the return of Keith Gill (who goes by "Roaring Kitty" on YouTube) to digital activity after a three-year break. In the last "meme stock frenzy" of 2021, Mr. Gill had emerged as a leading voice of the masses investing into c
Meme Stock Frenzy Likely to Carry Over Into Next Week

Berkshire Hathaway Q1: Apple Bet Reduction Likely A Macro Decision

On the 4th of May, asset management firm Berkshire Hathaway Inc ($Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ and $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$) announced in the course of its first quarter earnings release that its biggest bet - Apple Inc ( $Apple(AAPL)$) - was worth $135.4 billion, implying that the former held around 790 million shares of the latter. This meant that the "Oracle of Omaha" (as Berkshire Hathaway principal Warren Buffett is often referred to as) has authorized the disposal of around 116 million shares or 13% of its total stake in Apple.  Most "Buffettologists" would recognize that Berkshire Hathaway's investment style isn't known to be tactical; holding "str
Berkshire Hathaway Q1: Apple Bet Reduction Likely A Macro Decision

Tesla: Margins and Market Share Down, Autonomous FSD Years Away

Tesla’s ($Tesla Motors(TSLA)$) Q1 earnings release came with few surprises, given that sales of the company’s products were already flagged as having been in decline. Relative to the same period in the previous year, Tesla’s revenue fell 9% with automotive revenue in particular down 13%. Pass-through line items were far more affected. While operating expenses and capital expenditures rose 37% and 34% respectively, adjusted EBITDA dropped 21% while earnings per share dropped 55%. The company’s damaging price war with other EV makers has been particularly damaging, as evidenced by its gross margin falling 18%. Given that EVs are no longer niche and Tesla’s current catalogue is facing stiff competition and “brand fatigue”, the doldrums seen are both
Tesla: Margins and Market Share Down, Autonomous FSD Years Away

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