Mohamed Elsage personal page - To The Moon

Mohamed Elsage

Mohamed Elsage

Mohamed Elsage

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08-28

$Bank of America(BAC)$

$Molina Healthcare(MOH)$

2024-05-02

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 1000000000 MOHAMED ELSAGE

2024-05-02

$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ MOHAMED ELSAGE

美股波动与港股崛起：美联储议息会议后的市场格局

2024-05-01

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 1000000

2023-04-12

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ELSAGE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301547218198552","repostId":"1101043060","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101043060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1714621832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101043060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-02 11:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股波动与港股崛起：美联储议息会议后的市场格局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101043060","media":"国君海外宏观研究","summary":"美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。</p><p>美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。</p><p>鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。第三，关于美国经济新常态的讨论开始浮出水面，其中不仅包括潜在经济增长率，也包括失业率和通胀等关键问题。从这个角度而言，美联储未来的降息路径不会是rule-based,而是会倾向于dynamic approach，也就是更加关心经济的动态表现而相机抉择。</p><p>此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。放缓缩表的讨论从年初开始，但直到5月才有定论，在一定程度上也表明美联储的整体行动晚于之前的时间表。关于放缓缩表，鲍威尔表示主要是考虑到减少货币政策的限制性，但同时与利率政策又是两个不同的路径，放缓缩表与保持利率在高位并不矛盾。从这个角度而言，市场本身将放缓缩表作为降息的前奏，目前而言似乎也有些难以自圆其说。</p><p>由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。</p><p>由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7c5a362c2fab31294c54b4ab305241\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p>短期而言，市场只能通过更多的经济数据来判断未来美国货币政策的走向，这也意味着关于降息的交易将变得“碎片化”，而只有经济数据指向相对一致时，市场的利率预期才会更加稳定，从而整体的宏观交易才能找到方向。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af8dd49d51e37d2bf12bdac24c3e353\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。在过去的几天中，北京开始放松非核心区域的住房限购引发市场的关注，港股和A股的房地产板块也出现了久违的行情。而未来几天五一黄金周的出行数据无疑会得到更多的关注，总体而言，投资者对于港股的信心有明显的上升。而推升这一轮港股行情的，主要是南下资金。由于港股近期表现出色，一些海外资金也开始出现增仓。从这个角度而言，市场短期对于人民币的看法也会偏正面。</p><p>在五一假期中，日元也受到了高度关注，一方面，日元的大幅贬值吸引了大量的游客，另一方面，日元从160一线受到了强力的狙击，这被广泛认为是日本官方的干预行为。从汇市来看，由于美元利率处于高位，做多美元仍然是一个相对主流的交易，但边际上而言，眼下最大的变化来自于中国经济展望改善以及日元的官方干预，因此不排除有资金unwind美元多头。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。从这个角度而言，一些相对结构性和区域性的交易主题，可能会受到市场的青睐。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1713766175579","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股波动与港股崛起：美联储议息会议后的市场格局</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股波动与港股崛起：美联储议息会议后的市场格局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-02 11:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA><strong>国君海外宏观研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"HK0000369196.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","HSI":"恒生指数","HK0000369188.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101043060","content_text":"美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。第三，关于美国经济新常态的讨论开始浮出水面，其中不仅包括潜在经济增长率，也包括失业率和通胀等关键问题。从这个角度而言，美联储未来的降息路径不会是rule-based,而是会倾向于dynamic approach，也就是更加关心经济的动态表现而相机抉择。此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。放缓缩表的讨论从年初开始，但直到5月才有定论，在一定程度上也表明美联储的整体行动晚于之前的时间表。关于放缓缩表，鲍威尔表示主要是考虑到减少货币政策的限制性，但同时与利率政策又是两个不同的路径，放缓缩表与保持利率在高位并不矛盾。从这个角度而言，市场本身将放缓缩表作为降息的前奏，目前而言似乎也有些难以自圆其说。由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。短期而言，市场只能通过更多的经济数据来判断未来美国货币政策的走向，这也意味着关于降息的交易将变得“碎片化”，而只有经济数据指向相对一致时，市场的利率预期才会更加稳定，从而整体的宏观交易才能找到方向。从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。在过去的几天中，北京开始放松非核心区域的住房限购引发市场的关注，港股和A股的房地产板块也出现了久违的行情。而未来几天五一黄金周的出行数据无疑会得到更多的关注，总体而言，投资者对于港股的信心有明显的上升。而推升这一轮港股行情的，主要是南下资金。由于港股近期表现出色，一些海外资金也开始出现增仓。从这个角度而言，市场短期对于人民币的看法也会偏正面。在五一假期中，日元也受到了高度关注，一方面，日元的大幅贬值吸引了大量的游客，另一方面，日元从160一线受到了强力的狙击，这被广泛认为是日本官方的干预行为。从汇市来看，由于美元利率处于高位，做多美元仍然是一个相对主流的交易，但边际上而言，眼下最大的变化来自于中国经济展望改善以及日元的官方干预，因此不排除有资金unwind美元多头。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。从这个角度而言，一些相对结构性和区域性的交易主题，可能会受到市场的青睐。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,"HSI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301139263729784,"gmtCreate":1714539748860,"gmtModify":1714542895139,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed 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Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942461269","repostId":"9942412226","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9942412226,"gmtCreate":1681274167266,"gmtModify":1681278273057,"author":{"id":"4102123614530830","authorId":"4102123614530830","name":"nerdbull1669","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac2db9ff7976dac4aa567ce14027bd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102123614530830","idStr":"4102123614530830"},"themes":[],"title":"A.I. Tools Regulation -> Good for which A.I. stocks?","htmlText":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","listText":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","text":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7a03cd133d4b2673a340f1fb5368db0c","width":"735","height":"474"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94cba7e9b75fb132fe146ae4637455b3","width":"880","height":"478"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/982c8fbc4a2af0d13f5c0f265f451eb4","width":"851","height":"467"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942412226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":472405130981712,"gmtCreate":1756368976102,"gmtModify":1756368978524,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed 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Healthcare(MOH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/472405130981712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301555925622944,"gmtCreate":1714641475819,"gmtModify":1714641502625,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000000 MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000000 MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 1000000000 MOHAMED ELSAGE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301555925622944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301547218198552,"gmtCreate":1714639345236,"gmtModify":1714640312257,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$&nbsp;</a> MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$&nbsp;</a> MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","text":"$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ MOHAMED ELSAGE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301547218198552","repostId":"1101043060","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101043060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1714621832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101043060?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-02 11:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股波动与港股崛起：美联储议息会议后的市场格局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101043060","media":"国君海外宏观研究","summary":"美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。</p><p>美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。</p><p>鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。第三，关于美国经济新常态的讨论开始浮出水面，其中不仅包括潜在经济增长率，也包括失业率和通胀等关键问题。从这个角度而言，美联储未来的降息路径不会是rule-based,而是会倾向于dynamic approach，也就是更加关心经济的动态表现而相机抉择。</p><p>此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。放缓缩表的讨论从年初开始，但直到5月才有定论，在一定程度上也表明美联储的整体行动晚于之前的时间表。关于放缓缩表，鲍威尔表示主要是考虑到减少货币政策的限制性，但同时与利率政策又是两个不同的路径，放缓缩表与保持利率在高位并不矛盾。从这个角度而言，市场本身将放缓缩表作为降息的前奏，目前而言似乎也有些难以自圆其说。</p><p>由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。</p><p>由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7c5a362c2fab31294c54b4ab305241\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p>短期而言，市场只能通过更多的经济数据来判断未来美国货币政策的走向，这也意味着关于降息的交易将变得“碎片化”，而只有经济数据指向相对一致时，市场的利率预期才会更加稳定，从而整体的宏观交易才能找到方向。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af8dd49d51e37d2bf12bdac24c3e353\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。在过去的几天中，北京开始放松非核心区域的住房限购引发市场的关注，港股和A股的房地产板块也出现了久违的行情。而未来几天五一黄金周的出行数据无疑会得到更多的关注，总体而言，投资者对于港股的信心有明显的上升。而推升这一轮港股行情的，主要是南下资金。由于港股近期表现出色，一些海外资金也开始出现增仓。从这个角度而言，市场短期对于人民币的看法也会偏正面。</p><p>在五一假期中，日元也受到了高度关注，一方面，日元的大幅贬值吸引了大量的游客，另一方面，日元从160一线受到了强力的狙击，这被广泛认为是日本官方的干预行为。从汇市来看，由于美元利率处于高位，做多美元仍然是一个相对主流的交易，但边际上而言，眼下最大的变化来自于中国经济展望改善以及日元的官方干预，因此不排除有资金unwind美元多头。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。从这个角度而言，一些相对结构性和区域性的交易主题，可能会受到市场的青睐。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1713766175579","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股波动与港股崛起：美联储议息会议后的市场格局</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股波动与港股崛起：美联储议息会议后的市场格局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-02 11:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA><strong>国君海外宏观研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"HK0000369196.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC",".DJI":"道琼斯","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","HSI":"恒生指数","HK0000369188.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101043060","content_text":"美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。第三，关于美国经济新常态的讨论开始浮出水面，其中不仅包括潜在经济增长率，也包括失业率和通胀等关键问题。从这个角度而言，美联储未来的降息路径不会是rule-based,而是会倾向于dynamic approach，也就是更加关心经济的动态表现而相机抉择。此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。放缓缩表的讨论从年初开始，但直到5月才有定论，在一定程度上也表明美联储的整体行动晚于之前的时间表。关于放缓缩表，鲍威尔表示主要是考虑到减少货币政策的限制性，但同时与利率政策又是两个不同的路径，放缓缩表与保持利率在高位并不矛盾。从这个角度而言，市场本身将放缓缩表作为降息的前奏，目前而言似乎也有些难以自圆其说。由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。短期而言，市场只能通过更多的经济数据来判断未来美国货币政策的走向，这也意味着关于降息的交易将变得“碎片化”，而只有经济数据指向相对一致时，市场的利率预期才会更加稳定，从而整体的宏观交易才能找到方向。从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。在过去的几天中，北京开始放松非核心区域的住房限购引发市场的关注，港股和A股的房地产板块也出现了久违的行情。而未来几天五一黄金周的出行数据无疑会得到更多的关注，总体而言，投资者对于港股的信心有明显的上升。而推升这一轮港股行情的，主要是南下资金。由于港股近期表现出色，一些海外资金也开始出现增仓。从这个角度而言，市场短期对于人民币的看法也会偏正面。在五一假期中，日元也受到了高度关注，一方面，日元的大幅贬值吸引了大量的游客，另一方面，日元从160一线受到了强力的狙击，这被广泛认为是日本官方的干预行为。从汇市来看，由于美元利率处于高位，做多美元仍然是一个相对主流的交易，但边际上而言，眼下最大的变化来自于中国经济展望改善以及日元的官方干预，因此不排除有资金unwind美元多头。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。从这个角度而言，一些相对结构性和区域性的交易主题，可能会受到市场的青睐。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,"HSI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301139263729784,"gmtCreate":1714539748860,"gmtModify":1714542895139,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 1000000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301139263729784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942461269,"gmtCreate":1681279571551,"gmtModify":1681280185333,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942461269","repostId":"9942412226","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9942412226,"gmtCreate":1681274167266,"gmtModify":1681278273057,"author":{"id":"4102123614530830","authorId":"4102123614530830","name":"nerdbull1669","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac2db9ff7976dac4aa567ce14027bd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102123614530830","idStr":"4102123614530830"},"themes":[],"title":"A.I. Tools Regulation -> Good for which A.I. stocks?","htmlText":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","listText":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","text":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7a03cd133d4b2673a340f1fb5368db0c","width":"735","height":"474"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94cba7e9b75fb132fe146ae4637455b3","width":"880","height":"478"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/982c8fbc4a2af0d13f5c0f265f451eb4","width":"851","height":"467"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942412226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}