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The volatility of US stocks and the rise of Hong Kong stocks: the market structure after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting

2024-05-01

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ELSAGE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301555925622944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301547218198552,"gmtCreate":1714639345236,"gmtModify":1714640312257,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$&nbsp;</a> MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$&nbsp;</a> MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","text":"$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ MOHAMED ELSAGE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301547218198552","repostId":"1101043060","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101043060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1714621832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101043060?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-02 11:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The volatility of US stocks and the rise of Hong Kong stocks: the market structure after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101043060","media":"国君海外宏观研究","summary":"美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May ended \"flat\", and the market hardly got any definite news it hoped for. Neither bulls nor bears seem to find the most accurate information. As a result, the market performance is more flat-U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar almost all fluctuate within a narrow range.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The information revealed by Powell's speech is as follows: First, the rate hike cycle has ended, and the rate hike of the next meeting is' unlikely '. In other words, rate hike will not be the future policy option; Second, there is a lack of certainty conditions for interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts require two triggers: the first is the rapid decline in inflation, and the second is the sudden collapse of the labor market. Obviously, the Fed and the market have no confidence in these two triggers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because Powell was not overly tough as the market feared, his speech was instead considered dovish. But even so, some such information is still insufficient for the market. Generally speaking, the market has shown its inadaptability to the U.S. economy. Forcibly applying the U.S. economy to the framework of the past 30 years does not seem to be the most scientific approach, but no more reliable path can be found.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As no more nutritious information can be found, the market performance is very lackluster. However, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks largely shows the hesitation of stock investors in the face of macro uncertainty. Ahead of the interest rate meeting, popular AI stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI US) performance fell short of expectations, and the result was sharply sold, which to a certain extent shows that the growth sector is still suppressed by high interest rates.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From this perspective, the market will still focus on Hong Kong stocks. Since April, the Hang Seng Index has performed brilliantly, far surpassing U.S. stocks. To a large extent, this shows that while the market is repricing US monetary policy, it is also beginning to reprice the performance of China's economy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May ended \"flat\", and the market hardly got any definite news it hoped for. Neither bulls nor bears seem to find the most accurate information. As a result, the market performance is more flat-U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar almost all fluctuate within a narrow range.</p><p>The information revealed by Powell's speech is as follows: First, the rate hike cycle has ended, and the rate hike of the next meeting is' unlikely '. In other words, rate hike will not be the future policy option; Second, there is a lack of certainty conditions for interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts require two triggers: the first is the rapid decline in inflation, and the second is the sudden collapse of the labor market. Obviously, the Fed and the market have no confidence in these two triggers. Third, discussions about the new normal of the U.S. economy are beginning to surface, including not only potential economic growth rates, but also key issues such as unemployment and inflation. From this perspective, the Fed's future interest rate cut path will not be rule-based, but will tend to be dynamic approach, that is, to pay more attention to the dynamic performance of the economy and make discretionary decisions.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that it will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in June, and plans to reduce the rate of U.S. debt reduction from $60 billion per month to $25 billion, and maintain the rate of mortgage-backed securities reduction at $35 billion per month. The dollar remains unchanged. Discussions of slowing down shrinking balance sheet began at the beginning of the year, but the verdict was not finalized until May, which to some extent also indicates that the overall action of the Fed is later than the previous timetable. Regarding slowing down shrinking balance sheet, Powell said that it is mainly considered to reduce the restrictivity of monetary policy, but at the same time it is two different paths from interest rate policy. Slowing down shrinking balance sheet is not inconsistent with keeping interest rates high. From this perspective, the market itself will slow down the shrinking balance sheet as a prelude to interest rate cuts, which seems somewhat difficult to justify at present.</p><p>Because Powell was not overly tough as the market feared, his speech was instead considered dovish. But even so, some such information is still insufficient for the market. Generally speaking, the market has shown its inadaptability to the U.S. economy. Forcibly applying the U.S. economy to the framework of the past 30 years does not seem to be the most scientific approach, but no more reliable path can be found.</p><p>As no more nutritious information can be found, the market performance is very lackluster. However, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks largely shows the hesitation of stock investors in the face of macro uncertainty. Before the interest rate meeting, the performance of SMCI US, a popular AI stock, fell short of expectations, and the result was sharply sold. To a certain extent, it showed that the growth sector was still suppressed by high interest rates.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7c5a362c2fab31294c54b4ab305241\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p>In the short term, the market can only judge the future direction of U.S. monetary policy through more economic data, which also means that the transaction on interest rate cuts will become \"fragmented\", and only when the economic data points to relatively consistent, the market's interest rate expectations will be more stable, so that the overall macro transaction can find its direction.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af8dd49d51e37d2bf12bdac24c3e353\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>From this perspective, the market will still focus on Hong Kong stocks. Since April, the Hang Seng Index has performed brilliantly, far surpassing U.S. stocks. To a large extent, this shows that while the market is repricing US monetary policy, it is also beginning to reprice the performance of China's economy. In the past few days, Beijing has begun to relax housing purchase restrictions in non-core areas, which has attracted market attention, and the real estate sectors of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares have also experienced long-lost market conditions. In the next few days, the travel data of the May Day Golden Week will undoubtedly receive more attention. Overall, investors' confidence in Hong Kong stocks has increased significantly. What pushed up this round of Hong Kong stock market was mainly southbound funds. Due to the recent outstanding performance of Hong Kong stocks, some overseas funds have also begun to increase their positions. From this perspective, the market's short-term view of RMB will also be positive.</p><p>During the May Day holiday, the Japanese yen also received great attention. On the one hand, the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen attracted a large number of tourists; on the other hand, the Japanese yen was strongly attacked from the 160 line, which was widely regarded as Japanese official intervention. From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, as the interest rate of the US dollar is at a high level, doing more US dollars is still a relatively mainstream transaction. However, marginally speaking, the biggest change at present comes from the improvement of China's economic outlook and the official intervention of the Japanese yen, so it is not ruled out that there are funds unwind US dollars long. Since it is difficult for the market to find the theme of macro trading before the interest rate meeting in June, the the US Dollar Index will most likely be in shock. From this perspective, some relatively structural and regional trading themes may be favored by the market.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1713766175579","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The volatility of US stocks and the rise of Hong Kong stocks: the market structure after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe volatility of US stocks and the rise of Hong Kong stocks: the market structure after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国君海外宏观研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2024-05-02 11:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May ended \"flat\", and the market hardly got any definite news it hoped for. Neither bulls nor bears seem to find the most accurate information. As a result, the market performance is more flat-U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar almost all fluctuate within a narrow range.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The information revealed by Powell's speech is as follows: First, the rate hike cycle has ended, and the rate hike of the next meeting is' unlikely '. In other words, rate hike will not be the future policy option; Second, there is a lack of certainty conditions for interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts require two triggers: the first is the rapid decline in inflation, and the second is the sudden collapse of the labor market. Obviously, the Fed and the market have no confidence in these two triggers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because Powell was not overly tough as the market feared, his speech was instead considered dovish. But even so, some such information is still insufficient for the market. Generally speaking, the market has shown its inadaptability to the U.S. economy. Forcibly applying the U.S. economy to the framework of the past 30 years does not seem to be the most scientific approach, but no more reliable path can be found.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As no more nutritious information can be found, the market performance is very lackluster. However, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks largely shows the hesitation of stock investors in the face of macro uncertainty. Ahead of the interest rate meeting, popular AI stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI US) performance fell short of expectations, and the result was sharply sold, which to a certain extent shows that the growth sector is still suppressed by high interest rates.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From this perspective, the market will still focus on Hong Kong stocks. Since April, the Hang Seng Index has performed brilliantly, far surpassing U.S. stocks. To a large extent, this shows that while the market is repricing US monetary policy, it is also beginning to reprice the performance of China's economy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May ended \"flat\", and the market hardly got any definite news it hoped for. Neither bulls nor bears seem to find the most accurate information. As a result, the market performance is more flat-U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar almost all fluctuate within a narrow range.</p><p>The information revealed by Powell's speech is as follows: First, the rate hike cycle has ended, and the rate hike of the next meeting is' unlikely '. In other words, rate hike will not be the future policy option; Second, there is a lack of certainty conditions for interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts require two triggers: the first is the rapid decline in inflation, and the second is the sudden collapse of the labor market. Obviously, the Fed and the market have no confidence in these two triggers. Third, discussions about the new normal of the U.S. economy are beginning to surface, including not only potential economic growth rates, but also key issues such as unemployment and inflation. From this perspective, the Fed's future interest rate cut path will not be rule-based, but will tend to be dynamic approach, that is, to pay more attention to the dynamic performance of the economy and make discretionary decisions.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that it will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in June, and plans to reduce the rate of U.S. debt reduction from $60 billion per month to $25 billion, and maintain the rate of mortgage-backed securities reduction at $35 billion per month. The dollar remains unchanged. Discussions of slowing down shrinking balance sheet began at the beginning of the year, but the verdict was not finalized until May, which to some extent also indicates that the overall action of the Fed is later than the previous timetable. Regarding slowing down shrinking balance sheet, Powell said that it is mainly considered to reduce the restrictivity of monetary policy, but at the same time it is two different paths from interest rate policy. Slowing down shrinking balance sheet is not inconsistent with keeping interest rates high. From this perspective, the market itself will slow down the shrinking balance sheet as a prelude to interest rate cuts, which seems somewhat difficult to justify at present.</p><p>Because Powell was not overly tough as the market feared, his speech was instead considered dovish. But even so, some such information is still insufficient for the market. Generally speaking, the market has shown its inadaptability to the U.S. economy. Forcibly applying the U.S. economy to the framework of the past 30 years does not seem to be the most scientific approach, but no more reliable path can be found.</p><p>As no more nutritious information can be found, the market performance is very lackluster. However, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks largely shows the hesitation of stock investors in the face of macro uncertainty. Before the interest rate meeting, the performance of SMCI US, a popular AI stock, fell short of expectations, and the result was sharply sold. To a certain extent, it showed that the growth sector was still suppressed by high interest rates.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7c5a362c2fab31294c54b4ab305241\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p>In the short term, the market can only judge the future direction of U.S. monetary policy through more economic data, which also means that the transaction on interest rate cuts will become \"fragmented\", and only when the economic data points to relatively consistent, the market's interest rate expectations will be more stable, so that the overall macro transaction can find its direction.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af8dd49d51e37d2bf12bdac24c3e353\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>From this perspective, the market will still focus on Hong Kong stocks. Since April, the Hang Seng Index has performed brilliantly, far surpassing U.S. stocks. To a large extent, this shows that while the market is repricing US monetary policy, it is also beginning to reprice the performance of China's economy. In the past few days, Beijing has begun to relax housing purchase restrictions in non-core areas, which has attracted market attention, and the real estate sectors of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares have also experienced long-lost market conditions. In the next few days, the travel data of the May Day Golden Week will undoubtedly receive more attention. Overall, investors' confidence in Hong Kong stocks has increased significantly. What pushed up this round of Hong Kong stock market was mainly southbound funds. Due to the recent outstanding performance of Hong Kong stocks, some overseas funds have also begun to increase their positions. From this perspective, the market's short-term view of RMB will also be positive.</p><p>During the May Day holiday, the Japanese yen also received great attention. On the one hand, the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen attracted a large number of tourists; on the other hand, the Japanese yen was strongly attacked from the 160 line, which was widely regarded as Japanese official intervention. From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, as the interest rate of the US dollar is at a high level, doing more US dollars is still a relatively mainstream transaction. However, marginally speaking, the biggest change at present comes from the improvement of China's economic outlook and the official intervention of the Japanese yen, so it is not ruled out that there are funds unwind US dollars long. Since it is difficult for the market to find the theme of macro trading before the interest rate meeting in June, the the US Dollar Index will most likely be in shock. From this perspective, some relatively structural and regional trading themes may be favored by the market.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA\">国君海外宏观研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"HK0000369188.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","HK0000369196.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101043060","content_text":"美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。第三，关于美国经济新常态的讨论开始浮出水面，其中不仅包括潜在经济增长率，也包括失业率和通胀等关键问题。从这个角度而言，美联储未来的降息路径不会是rule-based,而是会倾向于dynamic approach，也就是更加关心经济的动态表现而相机抉择。此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。放缓缩表的讨论从年初开始，但直到5月才有定论，在一定程度上也表明美联储的整体行动晚于之前的时间表。关于放缓缩表，鲍威尔表示主要是考虑到减少货币政策的限制性，但同时与利率政策又是两个不同的路径，放缓缩表与保持利率在高位并不矛盾。从这个角度而言，市场本身将放缓缩表作为降息的前奏，目前而言似乎也有些难以自圆其说。由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。短期而言，市场只能通过更多的经济数据来判断未来美国货币政策的走向，这也意味着关于降息的交易将变得“碎片化”，而只有经济数据指向相对一致时，市场的利率预期才会更加稳定，从而整体的宏观交易才能找到方向。从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。在过去的几天中，北京开始放松非核心区域的住房限购引发市场的关注，港股和A股的房地产板块也出现了久违的行情。而未来几天五一黄金周的出行数据无疑会得到更多的关注，总体而言，投资者对于港股的信心有明显的上升。而推升这一轮港股行情的，主要是南下资金。由于港股近期表现出色，一些海外资金也开始出现增仓。从这个角度而言，市场短期对于人民币的看法也会偏正面。在五一假期中，日元也受到了高度关注，一方面，日元的大幅贬值吸引了大量的游客，另一方面，日元从160一线受到了强力的狙击，这被广泛认为是日本官方的干预行为。从汇市来看，由于美元利率处于高位，做多美元仍然是一个相对主流的交易，但边际上而言，眼下最大的变化来自于中国经济展望改善以及日元的官方干预，因此不排除有资金unwind美元多头。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。从这个角度而言，一些相对结构性和区域性的交易主题，可能会受到市场的青睐。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":1.1,".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301139263729784,"gmtCreate":1714539748860,"gmtModify":1714542895139,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 1000000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301139263729784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942461269,"gmtCreate":1681279571551,"gmtModify":1681280185333,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942461269","repostId":"9942412226","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9942412226,"gmtCreate":1681274167266,"gmtModify":1681278273057,"author":{"id":"4102123614530830","authorId":"4102123614530830","name":"nerdbull1669","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac2db9ff7976dac4aa567ce14027bd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102123614530830","idStr":"4102123614530830"},"themes":[],"title":"A.I. Tools Regulation -> Good for which A.I. stocks?","htmlText":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","listText":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","text":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7a03cd133d4b2673a340f1fb5368db0c","width":"735","height":"474"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94cba7e9b75fb132fe146ae4637455b3","width":"880","height":"478"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/982c8fbc4a2af0d13f5c0f265f451eb4","width":"851","height":"467"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942412226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":472405130981712,"gmtCreate":1756368976102,"gmtModify":1756368978524,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MOH\">$Molina Healthcare(MOH)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MOH\">$Molina Healthcare(MOH)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$ $Molina Healthcare(MOH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/472405130981712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301555925622944,"gmtCreate":1714641475819,"gmtModify":1714641502625,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000000 MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000000 MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 1000000000 MOHAMED ELSAGE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301555925622944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301547218198552,"gmtCreate":1714639345236,"gmtModify":1714640312257,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$&nbsp;</a> MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BHP.AU\">$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$&nbsp;</a> MOHAMED ELSAGE&nbsp;","text":"$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ MOHAMED ELSAGE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301547218198552","repostId":"1101043060","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101043060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1714621832,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101043060?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-05-02 11:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The volatility of US stocks and the rise of Hong Kong stocks: the market structure after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101043060","media":"国君海外宏观研究","summary":"美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May ended \"flat\", and the market hardly got any definite news it hoped for. Neither bulls nor bears seem to find the most accurate information. As a result, the market performance is more flat-U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar almost all fluctuate within a narrow range.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The information revealed by Powell's speech is as follows: First, the rate hike cycle has ended, and the rate hike of the next meeting is' unlikely '. In other words, rate hike will not be the future policy option; Second, there is a lack of certainty conditions for interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts require two triggers: the first is the rapid decline in inflation, and the second is the sudden collapse of the labor market. Obviously, the Fed and the market have no confidence in these two triggers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because Powell was not overly tough as the market feared, his speech was instead considered dovish. But even so, some such information is still insufficient for the market. Generally speaking, the market has shown its inadaptability to the U.S. economy. Forcibly applying the U.S. economy to the framework of the past 30 years does not seem to be the most scientific approach, but no more reliable path can be found.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As no more nutritious information can be found, the market performance is very lackluster. However, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks largely shows the hesitation of stock investors in the face of macro uncertainty. Ahead of the interest rate meeting, popular AI stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI US) performance fell short of expectations, and the result was sharply sold, which to a certain extent shows that the growth sector is still suppressed by high interest rates.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From this perspective, the market will still focus on Hong Kong stocks. Since April, the Hang Seng Index has performed brilliantly, far surpassing U.S. stocks. To a large extent, this shows that while the market is repricing US monetary policy, it is also beginning to reprice the performance of China's economy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May ended \"flat\", and the market hardly got any definite news it hoped for. Neither bulls nor bears seem to find the most accurate information. As a result, the market performance is more flat-U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar almost all fluctuate within a narrow range.</p><p>The information revealed by Powell's speech is as follows: First, the rate hike cycle has ended, and the rate hike of the next meeting is' unlikely '. In other words, rate hike will not be the future policy option; Second, there is a lack of certainty conditions for interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts require two triggers: the first is the rapid decline in inflation, and the second is the sudden collapse of the labor market. Obviously, the Fed and the market have no confidence in these two triggers. Third, discussions about the new normal of the U.S. economy are beginning to surface, including not only potential economic growth rates, but also key issues such as unemployment and inflation. From this perspective, the Fed's future interest rate cut path will not be rule-based, but will tend to be dynamic approach, that is, to pay more attention to the dynamic performance of the economy and make discretionary decisions.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that it will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in June, and plans to reduce the rate of U.S. debt reduction from $60 billion per month to $25 billion, and maintain the rate of mortgage-backed securities reduction at $35 billion per month. The dollar remains unchanged. Discussions of slowing down shrinking balance sheet began at the beginning of the year, but the verdict was not finalized until May, which to some extent also indicates that the overall action of the Fed is later than the previous timetable. Regarding slowing down shrinking balance sheet, Powell said that it is mainly considered to reduce the restrictivity of monetary policy, but at the same time it is two different paths from interest rate policy. Slowing down shrinking balance sheet is not inconsistent with keeping interest rates high. From this perspective, the market itself will slow down the shrinking balance sheet as a prelude to interest rate cuts, which seems somewhat difficult to justify at present.</p><p>Because Powell was not overly tough as the market feared, his speech was instead considered dovish. But even so, some such information is still insufficient for the market. Generally speaking, the market has shown its inadaptability to the U.S. economy. Forcibly applying the U.S. economy to the framework of the past 30 years does not seem to be the most scientific approach, but no more reliable path can be found.</p><p>As no more nutritious information can be found, the market performance is very lackluster. However, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks largely shows the hesitation of stock investors in the face of macro uncertainty. Before the interest rate meeting, the performance of SMCI US, a popular AI stock, fell short of expectations, and the result was sharply sold. To a certain extent, it showed that the growth sector was still suppressed by high interest rates.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7c5a362c2fab31294c54b4ab305241\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p>In the short term, the market can only judge the future direction of U.S. monetary policy through more economic data, which also means that the transaction on interest rate cuts will become \"fragmented\", and only when the economic data points to relatively consistent, the market's interest rate expectations will be more stable, so that the overall macro transaction can find its direction.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af8dd49d51e37d2bf12bdac24c3e353\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>From this perspective, the market will still focus on Hong Kong stocks. Since April, the Hang Seng Index has performed brilliantly, far surpassing U.S. stocks. To a large extent, this shows that while the market is repricing US monetary policy, it is also beginning to reprice the performance of China's economy. In the past few days, Beijing has begun to relax housing purchase restrictions in non-core areas, which has attracted market attention, and the real estate sectors of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares have also experienced long-lost market conditions. In the next few days, the travel data of the May Day Golden Week will undoubtedly receive more attention. Overall, investors' confidence in Hong Kong stocks has increased significantly. What pushed up this round of Hong Kong stock market was mainly southbound funds. Due to the recent outstanding performance of Hong Kong stocks, some overseas funds have also begun to increase their positions. From this perspective, the market's short-term view of RMB will also be positive.</p><p>During the May Day holiday, the Japanese yen also received great attention. On the one hand, the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen attracted a large number of tourists; on the other hand, the Japanese yen was strongly attacked from the 160 line, which was widely regarded as Japanese official intervention. From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, as the interest rate of the US dollar is at a high level, doing more US dollars is still a relatively mainstream transaction. However, marginally speaking, the biggest change at present comes from the improvement of China's economic outlook and the official intervention of the Japanese yen, so it is not ruled out that there are funds unwind US dollars long. Since it is difficult for the market to find the theme of macro trading before the interest rate meeting in June, the the US Dollar Index will most likely be in shock. From this perspective, some relatively structural and regional trading themes may be favored by the market.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1713766175579","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The volatility of US stocks and the rise of Hong Kong stocks: the market structure after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe volatility of US stocks and the rise of Hong Kong stocks: the market structure after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">国君海外宏观研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2024-05-02 11:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May ended \"flat\", and the market hardly got any definite news it hoped for. Neither bulls nor bears seem to find the most accurate information. As a result, the market performance is more flat-U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar almost all fluctuate within a narrow range.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The information revealed by Powell's speech is as follows: First, the rate hike cycle has ended, and the rate hike of the next meeting is' unlikely '. In other words, rate hike will not be the future policy option; Second, there is a lack of certainty conditions for interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts require two triggers: the first is the rapid decline in inflation, and the second is the sudden collapse of the labor market. Obviously, the Fed and the market have no confidence in these two triggers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because Powell was not overly tough as the market feared, his speech was instead considered dovish. But even so, some such information is still insufficient for the market. Generally speaking, the market has shown its inadaptability to the U.S. economy. Forcibly applying the U.S. economy to the framework of the past 30 years does not seem to be the most scientific approach, but no more reliable path can be found.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As no more nutritious information can be found, the market performance is very lackluster. However, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks largely shows the hesitation of stock investors in the face of macro uncertainty. Ahead of the interest rate meeting, popular AI stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">Ultra-microcomputer</a>(SMCI US) performance fell short of expectations, and the result was sharply sold, which to a certain extent shows that the growth sector is still suppressed by high interest rates.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From this perspective, the market will still focus on Hong Kong stocks. Since April, the Hang Seng Index has performed brilliantly, far surpassing U.S. stocks. To a large extent, this shows that while the market is repricing US monetary policy, it is also beginning to reprice the performance of China's economy.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May ended \"flat\", and the market hardly got any definite news it hoped for. Neither bulls nor bears seem to find the most accurate information. As a result, the market performance is more flat-U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar almost all fluctuate within a narrow range.</p><p>The information revealed by Powell's speech is as follows: First, the rate hike cycle has ended, and the rate hike of the next meeting is' unlikely '. In other words, rate hike will not be the future policy option; Second, there is a lack of certainty conditions for interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts require two triggers: the first is the rapid decline in inflation, and the second is the sudden collapse of the labor market. Obviously, the Fed and the market have no confidence in these two triggers. Third, discussions about the new normal of the U.S. economy are beginning to surface, including not only potential economic growth rates, but also key issues such as unemployment and inflation. From this perspective, the Fed's future interest rate cut path will not be rule-based, but will tend to be dynamic approach, that is, to pay more attention to the dynamic performance of the economy and make discretionary decisions.</p><p>In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that it will slow down the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in June, and plans to reduce the rate of U.S. debt reduction from $60 billion per month to $25 billion, and maintain the rate of mortgage-backed securities reduction at $35 billion per month. The dollar remains unchanged. Discussions of slowing down shrinking balance sheet began at the beginning of the year, but the verdict was not finalized until May, which to some extent also indicates that the overall action of the Fed is later than the previous timetable. Regarding slowing down shrinking balance sheet, Powell said that it is mainly considered to reduce the restrictivity of monetary policy, but at the same time it is two different paths from interest rate policy. Slowing down shrinking balance sheet is not inconsistent with keeping interest rates high. From this perspective, the market itself will slow down the shrinking balance sheet as a prelude to interest rate cuts, which seems somewhat difficult to justify at present.</p><p>Because Powell was not overly tough as the market feared, his speech was instead considered dovish. But even so, some such information is still insufficient for the market. Generally speaking, the market has shown its inadaptability to the U.S. economy. Forcibly applying the U.S. economy to the framework of the past 30 years does not seem to be the most scientific approach, but no more reliable path can be found.</p><p>As no more nutritious information can be found, the market performance is very lackluster. However, the rise and fall of U.S. stocks largely shows the hesitation of stock investors in the face of macro uncertainty. Before the interest rate meeting, the performance of SMCI US, a popular AI stock, fell short of expectations, and the result was sharply sold. To a certain extent, it showed that the growth sector was still suppressed by high interest rates.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7c5a362c2fab31294c54b4ab305241\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p>In the short term, the market can only judge the future direction of U.S. monetary policy through more economic data, which also means that the transaction on interest rate cuts will become \"fragmented\", and only when the economic data points to relatively consistent, the market's interest rate expectations will be more stable, so that the overall macro transaction can find its direction.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af8dd49d51e37d2bf12bdac24c3e353\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>From this perspective, the market will still focus on Hong Kong stocks. Since April, the Hang Seng Index has performed brilliantly, far surpassing U.S. stocks. To a large extent, this shows that while the market is repricing US monetary policy, it is also beginning to reprice the performance of China's economy. In the past few days, Beijing has begun to relax housing purchase restrictions in non-core areas, which has attracted market attention, and the real estate sectors of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares have also experienced long-lost market conditions. In the next few days, the travel data of the May Day Golden Week will undoubtedly receive more attention. Overall, investors' confidence in Hong Kong stocks has increased significantly. What pushed up this round of Hong Kong stock market was mainly southbound funds. Due to the recent outstanding performance of Hong Kong stocks, some overseas funds have also begun to increase their positions. From this perspective, the market's short-term view of RMB will also be positive.</p><p>During the May Day holiday, the Japanese yen also received great attention. On the one hand, the sharp depreciation of the Japanese yen attracted a large number of tourists; on the other hand, the Japanese yen was strongly attacked from the 160 line, which was widely regarded as Japanese official intervention. From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, as the interest rate of the US dollar is at a high level, doing more US dollars is still a relatively mainstream transaction. However, marginally speaking, the biggest change at present comes from the improvement of China's economic outlook and the official intervention of the Japanese yen, so it is not ruled out that there are funds unwind US dollars long. Since it is difficult for the market to find the theme of macro trading before the interest rate meeting in June, the the US Dollar Index will most likely be in shock. From this perspective, some relatively structural and regional trading themes may be favored by the market.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA\">国君海外宏观研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"HK0000369188.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","HK0000369196.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI OVERSEAS SHORT TENOR BOND FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lKQl4vJKnizfaWqE23nLGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101043060","content_text":"美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。美联储5月议息会议以“平淡”收场，市场几乎没有得到任何自己希望得到的确切消息。多头和空头似乎也都没找到最准确的信息，结果，市场表现更为平淡——美股、美债以及美元，几乎都在窄幅区间震荡。鲍威尔的讲话透露出的信息有如下几点：首先，加息周期已经结束，下次会议的加息是’unlikely’，换言之，加息不会是未来的政策选项;第二，现在缺乏降息的确定性条件，降息需要两个触发因素：第一是通胀快速下行，第二是劳动力市场突然崩盘。很显然，美联储和市场对这两个触发条件都没有信心。第三，关于美国经济新常态的讨论开始浮出水面，其中不仅包括潜在经济增长率，也包括失业率和通胀等关键问题。从这个角度而言，美联储未来的降息路径不会是rule-based,而是会倾向于dynamic approach，也就是更加关心经济的动态表现而相机抉择。此外，美联储宣布将从6月开始放缓资产负债表缩减的步伐，计划将美债减持速度从每月600亿美元降至250亿美元，抵押贷款支持证券减持速度维持在每月350亿美元不变。放缓缩表的讨论从年初开始，但直到5月才有定论，在一定程度上也表明美联储的整体行动晚于之前的时间表。关于放缓缩表，鲍威尔表示主要是考虑到减少货币政策的限制性，但同时与利率政策又是两个不同的路径，放缓缩表与保持利率在高位并不矛盾。从这个角度而言，市场本身将放缓缩表作为降息的前奏，目前而言似乎也有些难以自圆其说。由于鲍威尔没有像市场担忧的那样过度强硬，他的讲话反而被认为是偏鸽派。但即使如此，这样的一些信息，对市场来说，仍然是不足够的。总体而言，市场表现出了对于美国经济的不适应性，强行把美国经济套用在过去30年的框架中，似乎并不是一个最科学的做法，但又找不到更加可靠的路径。由于找不到更有营养的信息，市场表现十分平淡。但美股冲高回落，在很大程度上表现出股票投资者在面临宏观不确定的犹豫心态。在议息会议前，AI热门股票超微电脑（SMCI US）业绩不及预期，结果被大幅杀跌，在一定程度上表现出成长板块仍然受到高利率的压制。短期而言，市场只能通过更多的经济数据来判断未来美国货币政策的走向，这也意味着关于降息的交易将变得“碎片化”，而只有经济数据指向相对一致时，市场的利率预期才会更加稳定，从而整体的宏观交易才能找到方向。从这个角度而言，市场仍然会把关注的焦点放在港股上。4月以来，恒生指数的表现亮眼，远超美股。这在很大程度上表明市场在重新定价美国货币政策的同时，也开始在重新定价中国经济的表现。在过去的几天中，北京开始放松非核心区域的住房限购引发市场的关注，港股和A股的房地产板块也出现了久违的行情。而未来几天五一黄金周的出行数据无疑会得到更多的关注，总体而言，投资者对于港股的信心有明显的上升。而推升这一轮港股行情的，主要是南下资金。由于港股近期表现出色，一些海外资金也开始出现增仓。从这个角度而言，市场短期对于人民币的看法也会偏正面。在五一假期中，日元也受到了高度关注，一方面，日元的大幅贬值吸引了大量的游客，另一方面，日元从160一线受到了强力的狙击，这被广泛认为是日本官方的干预行为。从汇市来看，由于美元利率处于高位，做多美元仍然是一个相对主流的交易，但边际上而言，眼下最大的变化来自于中国经济展望改善以及日元的官方干预，因此不排除有资金unwind美元多头。由于在6月议息会议前，市场很难找到宏观交易的主题，美元指数大概率会处于震荡。从这个角度而言，一些相对结构性和区域性的交易主题，可能会受到市场的青睐。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":1.1,".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":301139263729784,"gmtCreate":1714539748860,"gmtModify":1714542895139,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 1000000","text":"$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 1000000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/301139263729784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942461269,"gmtCreate":1681279571551,"gmtModify":1681280185333,"author":{"id":"4144084204285962","authorId":"4144084204285962","name":"Mohamed Elsage","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e72adb1283d78de27ec21ac5f386d0f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144084204285962","idStr":"4144084204285962"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942461269","repostId":"9942412226","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9942412226,"gmtCreate":1681274167266,"gmtModify":1681278273057,"author":{"id":"4102123614530830","authorId":"4102123614530830","name":"nerdbull1669","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8ac2db9ff7976dac4aa567ce14027bd6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4102123614530830","idStr":"4102123614530830"},"themes":[],"title":"A.I. Tools Regulation -> Good for which A.I. stocks?","htmlText":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","listText":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","text":"Please find and follow my YT channel (nerdbull1669) for Daily SG and US Stock Watchlist. Do follow me as I share quality stock pick for Daily Watchlist. We understand that the Joe Biden administration is considering regulating AI tools like ChatGPT over concerns of potential harm and discrimination. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday (11 April 23), the Commerce Department has asked the public for comments on what it described as accountability measures, including whether the new AI models should go through a certification process before they are released. There are a few A.I. stocks which are being watched and traded previously constantly, it make me wonder what are the current practice in terms of : Accountability Ethical regulation of A.I. software Does commercial available mode","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7a03cd133d4b2673a340f1fb5368db0c","width":"735","height":"474"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/94cba7e9b75fb132fe146ae4637455b3","width":"880","height":"478"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/982c8fbc4a2af0d13f5c0f265f451eb4","width":"851","height":"467"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942412226","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}