Will gold hit USD 5,000 in 2026? It is possible, but not the base case. At around USD 4,500, gold already reflects expectations of Fed rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, fiscal imbalances, and geopolitical risk. A move to USD 5,000 likely requires an additional catalyst, such as a sharper US slowdown, deeper-than-expected easing, renewed inflation pressure, or a major geopolitical escalation. In a soft-landing scenario with stable growth and a firm US dollar, consolidation below USD 5,000 is more probable than a clean breakout. Futures, ETFs or leveraged ETFs? • ETFs are best for most investors, offering simple, long-term exposure without leverage decay. • Futures suit experienced traders who can manage volatility and margin risk. • Leveraged ETFs are strictly short-term tradin

Novo Nordisk’s rally on approval of an oral Wegovy is strategically important, but it does not automatically guarantee a sustained turnaround. Why the oral approval matters An effective oral GLP-1 materially expands the addressable market. Many patients avoid injectables due to inconvenience or needle aversion, particularly in primary care and early-stage obesity treatment. From a competitive standpoint, this is Novo Nordisk’s first credible answer to Eli Lilly’s strong pipeline momentum and helps rebalance the narrative that NVO is structurally losing ground. Why NVO underperformed so sharply NVO’s 38% decline this year reflects a mix of factors rather than a collapse in the obesity thesis. Concerns centred on manufacturing capacity, slower-than-expected supply expansion, pipeline disappo

Gold reaching USD 5,000 in 2026 is plausible, but not inevitable. Will gold hit USD 5,000 in 2026? The move towards USD 4,500 suggests gold is already pricing in a combination of policy easing, geopolitical risk and structural demand. Two Fed cuts in 2026 would lower real yields, which is historically supportive for gold. In addition, persistent central bank buying, fiscal deficits and currency debasement concerns provide a strong long-term floor. That said, USD 5,000 likely requires a reinforcing shock, such as a sharper economic slowdown, renewed inflationary pressure, or an escalation in geopolitical conflict. In a benign soft-landing scenario with stable growth and a firm US dollar, gold may consolidate between USD 4,200 and USD 4,700 rather than extend aggressively. How to express the

1. China H200 ship-ups and catalyst potential Plans to begin delivering H200 AI chips to China around mid-February 2026 are now widely reported. Initial shipments are expected to comprise roughly 5,000–10,000 module sets, equivalent to approximately 40,000–80,000 chips, subject to Chinese regulatory approval. The move follows a reversal in U.S. export policy that permits H200 sales to “approved customers” with a 25% revenue share for the U.S. government. These shipments would mark the first major resumption of Nvidia’s AI chip exports to China after prior bans.  From a demand perspective, the China market represents a meaningful addressable opportunity for Nvidia given the scale of AI adoption among hyperscalers and cloud providers there. Analysts estimate H200 sales could add materia

A measured approach is warranted. How I would plan this week’s trade This is typically a positioning and risk-management week, not an aggressive deployment window. Light net exposure: Maintain partial longs rather than full conviction trades. Liquidity thins quickly into year-end and price moves can exaggerate without confirmation. Favour leaders, not laggards: If participating, I would focus on stocks and indices already holding above key moving averages. Chasing beaten-down names rarely pays during Santa windows. Options bias: Call spreads or short-dated directional structures are preferable to outright equity exposure. Defined risk matters when liquidity is uneven. Cash is a position: Holding dry powder into the final two sessions of December often offers better risk-reward than forcing

Will gold reach US$5,000 in 2026? A move to US$5,000 in 2026 is ambitious but no longer implausible. After breaking US$4,500, gold has entered a regime shift rather than a cyclical rally. Key forces supporting a US$4,800 to US$5,200 tail scenario include: Monetary policy asymmetry: Even two Fed cuts in 2026 would still leave real rates vulnerable if growth slows faster than inflation. Gold responds more to the direction of policy than absolute levels. Central bank accumulation: Reserve diversification away from USD remains structural, not tactical. This creates a persistent bid under pullbacks. Geopolitical risk premium: Unlike past spikes, risk is now multi-polar and persistent rather than event-driven. Silver confirmation: Silver’s outperformance suggests this is a broad precious-metals

1. Will AI Continue as a Dominant Investment Theme in 2026? Strong consensus among major strategists and market outlooks suggests that AI will remain a central theme driving investment flows and economic growth into 2026. Economic Growth and Corporate Capex • Large financial institutions, including Bank of America, highlight that AI investment has meaningfully contributed to current US economic growth and is expected to continue growing in 2026, potentially becoming a more significant driver of productivity and capital spending next year. � • BlackRock’s outlook also points to AI capital expenditure supporting economic growth next year, at three times historical averages. � Market Strategy and Asset Allocation Views • Several brokerages and analysts believe AI will cement itself as a core

The Santa Claus window is statistically favourable, but tactically it still requires discipline. How to plan the week: Positioning over prediction: Liquidity is thinning, so price moves can be exaggerated. I would favour smaller sizing, tighter risk control, and trades aligned with existing trends rather than fresh thematic bets. Leadership matters: Watch whether market leadership broadens beyond a few mega-cap names. A healthy Santa rally typically shows participation from cyclicals and selected defensives, not just headline tech. Macro silence is a feature: With limited data and policy signals, sentiment and flows dominate. That tends to reward momentum, but punishes late, leveraged entries. Bullish on the Santa rally? Cautiously, yes. Seasonality, window dressing, and reduced selling pr

Over the next 12 months, gold’s trajectory is less about a single catalyst and more about policy credibility and regime risk. Key drivers: Real rates and policy confidence Gold responds less to nominal rates than to trust in central banks. If the Federal Reserve cuts into slowing growth while inflation remains sticky, real yields compress and gold stays bid. A credible hawkish pivot would cap upside, but that requires inflation to fall cleanly without economic stress, which remains uncertain. Fiscal dominance and debt optics Persistent deficits and rising refinancing needs in the U.S. and Europe continue to favour gold as a reserve hedge. This is structural, not cyclical. Geopolitics and reserve diversification Central bank buying remains robust, especially outside the West. This provides

The rebound following Micron’s results has clearly stabilised sentiment, but whether this is a clean buy-the-dip for Nvidia depends on time horizon. Fundamentals: Morgan Stanley’s stance is credible. The AI compute cycle remains capacity-constrained, not demand-constrained. Nvidia still sits at the centre of this ecosystem, with strong visibility on data-centre orders extending into 2026. On that basis, dips driven by positioning or sentiment rather than earnings deterioration remain attractive for medium-term investors. Near-term price action: After a sharp rebound, the risk tonight is a gap-up-and-sell-the-news session. Micron’s beat reduces downside tail risk, but it also gives short-term traders an excuse to lock in gains. Nvidia has already rallied meaningfully off recent lows, so ups

Is it Micron’s “Nvidia moment”? Not quite. Nvidia benefitted from platform dominance and software lock-in. Micron and peers are riding a structural upcycle driven by AI servers needing far more DRAM and HBM per rack. The gains are broad across the memory sector rather than company-specific. How long can the imbalance last? Likely 2 to 3 years. HBM capacity is tight, capex remains disciplined after prior busts, and AI demand keeps rising. Supply will expand, but not fast enough to quickly normalise pricing. Is it too late? Late for easy upside, not late for returns. Much optimism is priced in, so upside depends on sustained pricing power rather than multiple expansion. Risk is cyclical reversal once capacity catches up. Bottom line: this is a durable but cyclical memory supercycle. Still i

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Christmas, for me, is less about escape and more about recalibration. I deliberately scale back active trading during this period. Liquidity thins, price action becomes more sentiment-driven, and the risk–reward for short-term trades deteriorates. Rather than forcing activity, I treat the final stretch of the year as a time for review rather than execution. My usual approach is a light-monitoring mode. Key levels, macro headlines, and positioning risks stay on the radar, but there is no urge to react unless something genuinely breaks framework assumptions. It is a conscious shift from doing to observing. The more valuable work happens off-market. Reviewing what worked and what did not, stress-testing convictions, reassessing

2025 can be best understood as a year of violent repricing rather than simple trend continuation. The sharp April sell-off in US equities acted as a reset. Positioning had become one-sided, valuations complacent, and macro uncertainty underestimated. The subsequent rebound to record highs was not driven by fresh optimism, but by resilience. Earnings held up, liquidity remained ample, and investors were repeatedly forced to re-risk into strength rather than conviction. Gold breaking past USD 4,000 was arguably the most revealing signal of the year. It reflected not inflation panic, but deep-seated distrust. A hedge against fiscal expansion, geopolitical fragmentation, and long-term currency debasement. That gold and equities rallied together underscored a market hedging prosperity with prot

The rebound in Nvidia alongside Micron’s earnings beat reinforces a key point. The AI-led semiconductor cycle remains fundamentally intact rather than episodic. Morgan Stanley’s conviction is grounded in structure, not sentiment. AI compute demand is broadening from training into inference, enterprise deployment, sovereign AI and edge workloads. This sustains multi-year visibility for leaders such as Broadcom and Astera Labs, alongside Nvidia at the system level. Is this a buy-the-dip for Nvidia? From a medium-term perspective, yes, selectively. Pullbacks driven by positioning, profit-taking or macro noise do not alter Nvidia’s dominant role in AI accelerators, networking and software. Valuation is elevated, but earnings revision momentum remains supportive. Tonight’s price action: A gap-u

Why 6,800 matters It is a key psychological and options-heavy strike. Without a fresh catalyst or strong mega-cap leadership, rallies into this zone tend to meet supply. Pinning vs swings Base case: Pinning dominates. Heavy near-dated options exposure typically pulls price towards the strike into the close, producing narrow ranges and late-session mean reversion. Alternative: Swings dominate only if volatility expands, for example via a sharp move in yields or a large-cap driven flow. Even then, upside breaks risk being brief without volume follow-through. Expectation Intraday probes above 6,800 are possible. A sustained close above 6,800 requires clear volume expansion. Risk-reward currently favours patience over chasing a breakout. Bottom line: Pinning pressure slightly outweighs direct

Will the bull hold S&P 500 at 6,800? 6,800 is a critical but not fragile level. The index is entering quadruple witching with an unusually large options overhang. This typically amplifies intraday volatility, but does not automatically reverse the trend. Positioning data suggests large dealer gamma clustered between ~6,750–6,850. As long as price stays within this zone, dealers are more likely to dampen downside moves through hedging flows. A clean break below 6,750 would matter. Above 6,800, the path of least resistance remains sideways to higher. Base case: 6,800 holds into expiry unless macro shocks emerge. --- How much does the BOJ rate hike matter for US stocks? Direct impact is modest. Indirect impact is real but gradual. Why the immediate effect is limited The hike from 0.5% to

$Micron Technology(MU)$   What Is Driving the Recent Move Micron’s latest earnings release exceeded Wall Street expectations on both revenue and adjusted EPS, and the company issued very strong guidance for the upcoming quarter. This performance was powered by record-high demand for memory products used in artificial intelligence infrastructure, especially high-bandwidth memory that supports advanced AI models. Analysts and market commentators are framing this as a potential “memory supercycle” driven by AI adoption in data centres and constrained supply.  Key points on this theme include: DRAM and HBM revenues expanded sharply, boosting both top line and margins.  Micron management projects memory shortages persisting beyond 202

How to View Tesla’s Recent Move to New Highs 1. Market reaction is fundamentally narrative-driven rather than based on near-term earnings growth Tesla’s shares have climbed toward or above recent record levels largely because investors are repricing the company from a pure EV manufacturer to a software-centric, autonomous-mobility and AI platform provider. The catalyst this week was Elon Musk’s confirmation that Tesla is testing driverless robotaxis without human safety monitors, rather than incremental delivery figures or auto margin improvement. This development is being treated as meaningful progression toward autonomous commercial service.  2. The narrative supports a higher stock multiple Wall Street bulls such as analysts from Mizuho and Wedbush have raised price targets, some i

Trade idea for today (tactical, short-term): Bias: Selective long in semiconductors Setup: Momentum continuation after Micron’s earnings beat and strong guidance, with spillover support for AI and memory-linked names. Execution: Enter on a pullback to intraday support or a successful retest of the 20–50 period intraday moving average. Avoid chasing the open. Let early volatility settle. Target: +3% to +5% for a day to short swing trade. Trail stops if sector breadth strengthens. Risk control: Tight stop just below the morning swing low or key intraday support. Keep position size modest due to elevated expectations. What would invalidate the trade: Broad tech weakness despite positive MU follow-through. Rising yields or sudden risk-off tone. Bottom line: This is a momentum trade, not a con

$Micron Technology(MU)$  Here is a considered, structured perspective on Micron’s strength, memory sector positioning, and the broader semiconductor landscape: --- 1. Micron’s Outperformance in Context Micron’s recent earnings beat and strong guidance reflect a favourable combination of supply discipline and robust end-market demand, especially in AI-related infrastructure. Tight supply in memory naturally supports pricing and margin stability, which in turn fuels share performance. The market reaction shows confidence in the current cycle, but elevated expectations can also compress future upside if results normalise even modestly. Key points to watch for Micron over the next few quarters: Sustainability of product pricing in DRAM and NAND, In