Lanceljx
Lanceljx
High intelligence does not necessarily correspond to high wisdom.
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avatarLanceljx
2025-01-31
1. Clearing the Trash: Investment Pitfalls in 2024 i. Overconfidence in speculative assets. ii. Neglecting diversification. 2. Assets Investors Should Avoid in 2025: i. Overleveraged companies or industries vulnerable to economic downturns. ii. Speculative investments without clear fundamentals or realistic growth prospects. iii. Companies or sectors with declining demand or excessive regulation risks. 3. Investment Plan for 2025 Core Investment Strategies: i. Diversification: Building a balanced portfolio across asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and real estate, to mitigate risks. ii. Low-cost broad market index funds iii. Fixed-income assets: Allocating funds to bonds or treasury securities for stability in a high-interest-rate environment. 4. Emerging Opportunities for 2025: AI an
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-29
Owning NVDA can help you grow wealth, but it’s not a guaranteed path to becoming a millionaire. NVIDIA dominates AI and chips, with strong revenue and earnings growth, plus bullish analyst targets—but much of that optimism is already priced in. High valuation, export risks, and market volatility mean overexposure is risky. The smarter route is to include NVDA as part of a diversified portfolio—say 10–20%—while investing consistently in broader assets like ETFs or index funds. Becoming a millionaire depends on your savings rate, time horizon, and risk control, not a single stock. In short: NVDA can accelerate wealth, but discipline and diversification build it sustainably.
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-26
You’ve raised an important question — one many investors are asking now: if tech’s leadership is cooling, could “old-giant” sectors really resume the mantle? Below I’ll provide a reasoned, professional take in three parts: what supports a rotation to traditional industries, when that might be a temporary rally versus a broader shift, and which traditional sectors may have the most upside potential this year. --- 1. Is this merely a temporary rally or the start of a broader shift back to classic winners? Support for a broader shift The theory of “sector rotation” says that as the economy (and market) passes through different phases, capital tends to shift from sectors that have run hard into those that were out of favour.  Recent flows and headlines appear consistent with a rotation aw
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-02
NVIDIA’s current momentum certainly supports a bullish case toward the $200 mark, though a few key factors deserve consideration. --- 🔹 Bullish Arguments 1. AI Infrastructure Dominance: NVIDIA remains the backbone of AI computing. With Huang emphasizing inference as the next growth engine, the company is poised to capture sustained demand from cloud providers (e.g., Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft) and emerging AI players. 2. Ecosystem Expansion: Partnerships such as CoreWeave’s $14.2B deal with Meta validate NVIDIA’s platform as indispensable in hyperscale AI deployment. The company’s Blackwell architecture and upcoming GB200/GB300 systems may drive another revenue inflection. 3. Technical Strength: The stock’s four-session winning streak signals strong institutional accumulation. If it holds abo
avatarLanceljx
2025-12-11
My stance Silver’s breakout is technically impressive and fundamentally supported by the shift in real-rate expectations, yet its volatility profile argues for disciplined entry rather than chasing momentum. Why silver is outperforming gold Silver benefits from a dual identity: part monetary metal, part industrial commodity. As markets lock in a Fed easing path, real yields soften and the monetary bid rises. At the same time, renewed optimism around global manufacturing, solar demand and AI-related electronics boosts the industrial side. Gold is consolidating because positioning is already heavy, while silver had more room to expand. Breakout dynamics The surge above the previous record signals a strong trend, with ETF flows moving into SLV and leveraged vehicles like AGQ. Still, silver’s
avatarLanceljx
01-01 20:34
With CES approaching, the focus is less on headline launches and more on narrative credibility. For Nvidia and AMD, the key test is whether Al advances move beyond data-centre dominance into repeatable, monetisable consumer use cases. Data-centre demand remains the earnings anchor, but physical Al, edge inference, and on-device computing will determine the next leg of adoption. Earlier Al devices showed that technical capability alone does not guarantee commercial traction. This time, investors will look for tighter integration between hardware, software, and real-world workflows rather than concept demos. The winners will be those that frame Al as infrastructure quietly embedded into daily experiences, not as a novelty feature. CES may not redefine near-term earnings, but it will shape ex
avatarLanceljx
2025-09-25
If I were as wealthy as Ng, spending S$20,000 on a high-value networking dinner would depend on its strategic return. If the dinner gave access to decision-makers, policy shapers, or industry leaders that could unlock opportunities worth many times the cost, it could be justified as an investment rather than mere indulgence. However, I would still be cautious—relationships built on transactional dinners are often fragile. With S$18,900 personally, I would prefer diversified uses: allocate a portion to investments (equities, bonds, or REITs), reserve some for professional development or business building (courses, software, networking events with more sustainable ROI), and dedicate a part to meaningful experiences or charitable impact. The balance between personal growth, financial compoun
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-02
Tesla’s recent surge to $455.55 and a $1.5 trillion market cap underscores renewed investor enthusiasm — but the next leg toward $500 hinges largely on delivery momentum and earnings confirmation. --- 🚘 1. Can Tesla climb to $500? Technically, the setup is favourable. The stock has broken out of its multi-month consolidation, supported by robust volume inflows and positive sentiment ahead of deliveries. If results meet or exceed expectations, the next psychological milestone at $500 could come into play. However, a few headwinds warrant caution: Temporary Demand Pull-Forward: The $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit expiry likely front-loaded demand, inflating Q3 deliveries. This may leave a vacuum in Q4, challenging sustained growth. Margin Compression Risks: While delivery numbers may impress, inve
avatarLanceljx
01-01 20:37
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ A few practical technical analysis insights that consistently hold up across market cycles: 1. Price leads indicators Indicators are derivatives of price. Always anchor analysis to structure first: trend, support and resistance, and market context. Indicators should confirm, not dictate. 2. Trend strength matters more than signals In strong trends, overbought or oversold readings can persist. Momentum tools like RSI or MACD work best when interpreted alongside trend direction, not in isolation. 3. Volume validates conviction Breakouts without volume are prone to failure. Rising volume during trend continuation signals institutional participation and improves probability. 4. Timeframe alignment reduces noise Conflicting signa
avatarLanceljx
2025-09-30
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$  Your summary of Marks’s view is essentially correct: he’s warning that valuations are elevated, but he doesn’t (yet) believe we’re in full-blown “irrational exuberance.” Rather, he counsels a more cautious stance — what he calls “Level 5 defense” — i.e. reduce aggressive exposure, rotate toward defensive assets, tighten risk controls. That’s a sensible posture in my view: it’s a midpoint between outright alarm and complacency. Below are my reflections on his stance, some observations on current valuations (especially of the Magnificent 7 and the S&P 500), and how I would (and do) position a portfolio in this environment. --- Opinion on Marks’s view & the valuation backdrop Strengths of his approach 1. Avoid
avatarLanceljx
2025-12-11
$Oracle(ORCL)$  Assessment of the results Oracle delivered a combination the market finds most punishing: a revenue miss, a cloud miss and a deterioration in free cash flow. The headline figure of –$10 billion FCF is especially troubling because it signals that the company is consuming cash at a time when investors expected cloud expansion to translate into stronger operating leverage. Why the sell-off was so severe The negative reaction is rational. Three pressure points converged. 1. Growth disappointment Oracle has been priced as a beneficiary of the AI-infrastructure cycle. Missing both total revenue and cloud revenue undermines the “acceleration story” that previously pushed the stock to high valuations. 2. Cash-flow shock A large negati
avatarLanceljx
2025-09-30
This week, I’d lean toward option (a): deploying a short-term Iron Condor on SPY. After a strong September run and mixed macro signals, markets appear poised for range-bound consolidation rather than a directional breakout. Volatility remains slightly elevated, offering decent option premiums while implied moves suggest contained price action. A well-defined Iron Condor around key support (~520) and resistance (~540) could monetise time decay if indices drift sideways post-quarter-end rebalancing. As for Intel’s momentum, the recent 30% surge already prices in optimism from NVIDIA’s stake and Apple partnership chatter. Chasing here risks buying into euphoria without confirmed earnings follow-through. Lastly, portfolio review is always wise: rebalance after September’s rally, trim over-ext
avatarLanceljx
2025-09-30
Let’s assess Tesla’s setup from three perspectives — fundamentals (Q3 deliveries and earnings), sentiment and positioning, and technical valuation — before drawing conclusions on whether it can crush estimates and extend the rally beyond September. --- 1. Q3 Deliveries — Can Tesla Beat Expectations? Street Consensus As of late September, sell-side consensus generally expects Q3 deliveries in the 470k–490k range, implying sequential growth after a softer Q2 (≈443k). Barclays, Goldman, and UBS have each raised their internal forecasts — some as high as 495k units, reflecting: Improved production cadence at Shanghai and Berlin, Early signs of demand recovery in China with local price adjustments, Model Y L and refreshed trims helping ASP stability, Incremental U.S. demand on tax-credit eligib
avatarLanceljx
01-01 20:43
If I had to focus on three key sectors for 2026, they would be: 1. AI hardware and infrastructure This remains the core of the cycle. Demand is shifting from training to sustained utilisation, inference, memory, optics, power management, and EDA. Valuations matter, but earnings visibility supports this theme. 2. Application software with real AI monetisation 2026 is more about re-rating than growth acceleration. Winners will be sticky enterprise platforms embedding AI agents into workflows with clear pricing power and cash flow discipline. 3. Robotics and embodied AI (selective exposure) High potential but volatile. Near-term moves are sentiment-driven, while consolidation favours full-stack players with scale, data, and capital strength. Is the Mag 7 still a pick? Yes, but selectively. I
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-24
$Intel(INTC)$  You’ve raised some very pertinent questions following the latest Intel Corporation (INTC) earnings report. Below is a structured assessment — keeping in mind this is not financial advice but rather a professional-tone analysis based on the facts and risks. --- ✅ What we know so far Here are the key highlights from Intel’s Q3 fiscal 2025 results: Revenue: US$13.7 billion, up ~3% year-on-year, beating expectations.  Adjusted non-GAAP EPS: US$0.23, much higher than consensus (~US$0.01).  Gross margin improved significantly (GAAP gross margin ~38.2% vs ~15% in the prior year).  The company announced the U.S. government has a ~10% stake in Intel.  For Q4 the company gave revenue guidance of US$12.8 billion to US$
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-08
Here’s my assessment of the situation, with caveats and risk factors. (Note: this is not financial advice — just an analytical viewpoint.) --- 1. Is there still upside potential after AMD jumps ~25%? It is possible, but the risk-reward becomes more challenging. The OpenAI deal is a dramatic inflection event, and markets will now shift toward judging execution, de-risking, and sustainment rather than surprise. Supporting arguments for further upside: The deal is multi-year and multi-generation: AMD will supply GPUs across multiple future architectures (starting with MI450) under a 6-gigawatt commitment.  OpenAI’s warrant gives it up to 160 million shares (roughly 10 % of AMD) at $0.01, vesting on milestones tied to share price and deployment.  The warrant structure essentially ali
avatarLanceljx
2025-12-30
Current market context Silver has experienced an extraordinary rally in 2025, with prices more than doubling this year amid structural supply-demand imbalances and robust industrial and investment demand. Recently it set fresh highs above US$80 per ounce but has pulled back sharply as traders booked profits and market mechanics such as higher futures margin requirements impacted leveraged positions. Despite the retreat, silver remains well above prior levels and continues to show strong year-to-date performance.  Should you take profits now? There is no single answer that fits all portfolios, but the recent pullback illustrates two typical dynamics: Profit-taking and volatility are normal after large gains. Traders frequently reduce exposure after dramatic rallies to lock in gains, es
avatarLanceljx
2025-12-30
1. Strategists remain broadly constructive on equities for 2026 A current Bloomberg survey of 21 strategists shows no bearish forecasts for the S&P 500. They foresee roughly a 9 per cent average gain in 2026, constituting a rare fourth consecutive year of gains if realised. Previously cautious institutions, including JPMorgan, have moved fully to a bullish stance with a year-end 2026 target near 7 500 on the S&P 500. None of the surveyed strategists expect a material downward trend next year, though they do acknowledge various risks at the margin.  2. Recent pullbacks tend to be shallow and typical of strong uptrends Analysts note that pullbacks in 2025 have generally been modest, offering only shallow “buy the dip” opportunities rather than deep corrections. Historically, suc
avatarLanceljx
2025-12-30
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ Defining moment of 2025 The event that most clearly defines 2025 is the convergence of political uncertainty with an unprecedented acceleration in computing investment. Trump’s return amplified policy risk, tariffs, and geopolitical noise, yet markets ultimately chose to price productivity over politics. The decisive shift was capital committing, at scale, to AI infrastructure. That commitment rewired earnings expectations, valuation frameworks, and even macro narratives. Gold rewriting history was a symptom of uncertainty. The computing boom was the structural change. The trade that taught the most The most instructive trade was staying long quality AI infrastructure while trimming euphoria at the margin. It reinforced thre
avatarLanceljx
2025-10-24
You’ve raised very pertinent questions about the S‑REITs (Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts) space — especially the trade-off between “stable yield” versus “explosive growth”, the impact of upcoming rate cuts, and which Singapore companies might be worth your attention. I’ll structure my thoughts as follows: --- 1. Stable Yield vs. Explosive Growth Stable Yield Advantages: Many S-REITs deliver a reasonably high distribution yield (DPU/dividend) compared to many other equities in Singapore. For example, as of early 2025 the average dividend yield for S-REITs was about 6.9%.  Less dependent on spectacular growth; more about property income, occupancy, stable tenants, and proper financing. Aligns with income-oriented investors: If you appreciate regular distributions and lower vola

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