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Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples between DEM16 and DEC20

This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: The Fed Bomb
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples between DEM16 and DEC20

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

What AMZN announced in their keynotes across

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is having their annual conference ReInvent this week, and for infra nerds like me, it's fun to dig in on all of the announcements! Here's a quick summary of what they announced in their keynotes across:1) Compute EC2 was a foundational product for AWS, and the OG compute instance. Today, AWS has ~850 compute instances types across 126 different families (for instance, they have ~14 instance types just for Nvidia GPUs). From 1 instance type to ~850 today! They also started building their own chips (Gravitron in 2018, Inferentia in 2019 and Trainium in 2022). They disclosed a cool stat - in 2019 AWS was a $35b business. Today - there is as much compute running on Gravitron in the AWS fleet than all of compute at AWS in 2019!This w
What AMZN announced in their keynotes across

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples this week

This week in enterprise software: Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: Is Software Back?- Median so
Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples this week

Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples

This week in enterprise software: Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples as of today's market close $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $CLOUDFLARE INC(0A3Z.UK)$ $Guidewire(GWRE)$ $Shopify(SHOP)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Onestream Inc(OS)$ ImageThis week on Clouded Judgement: A Shift to Gr
Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

Cloud Giants Update: AMZN, MSFT & GOOG

Cloud Giants Update: AWS ( $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ): $110B run rate growing 19% YoY (last Q grew 19%)Azure ( $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ): ~$66B run rate (estimate) growing 34% YoY (last Q grew 33% cc) $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Google Cloud (includes GSuite): $45B run rate growing 35% YoY (last Q grew 29%, neither are cc)ImageAggregate quarterly net new ARR by the hyperscalers Image $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS at a $110B run rate growing 19% Quarterly YoY growth trends below.ImageQuarterly net new ARR addedImagePretty incredible commentary from Microsoft yesterday:"we're excited that on
Cloud Giants Update: AMZN, MSFT & GOOG

MSFT Azure Quarterly YoY growth trends

Azure at a ~$66B run rate growing 34% constant currency (33% overall)They recently restated Azure, so some of the historical comparisons won't be apples to apples. PowerBI and EMS are no longer included in Azure which represented ~$20B of run rate last QQuarterly YoY growth trends below $Microsoft(MSFT)$ ImageNot exact figures, but rough estimates on Azure AI Services quarterly run rate below (12pts of growth this Q). They only disclose the % of growth to a full round number (no decimal point), so definitely not exactImageBelow is an estimate of net new ARR added over the last few quarters.ImageYoY growth trends in net new ARR per quarterImage
MSFT Azure Quarterly YoY growth trends

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples on OCT26

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples on OCT26

Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples

Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples

Palantir isn’t just a company - it’s a founder factory

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ isn’t just a company - it’s a founder factory. Palantir has produced a remarkable number of founders and technology leaders: from founding startups like Anduril (Brian Schimpf, Trae Stephens, and Matt Grimm) and Affirm (Max Levchin and Nathan Gettings) to leading consequential organizations such as OpenAI (Bob McGrew - Chief Research Officer) and Fox (Melody Hildebrandt - CTO).CobiBGantz and I dig into Palantir's unique culture and unpack the key ingredients that make it so:1. Uncompromising Talent Bar2. Mission Orientation3. Forward Deployed Engineering: Deliver Outcomes, Not Software4. Seek Truth: Solve Real Problems, Not Shiny Ones5. Define a Shared Enemy: United The Team6. Flat Structure: Direct Access To Lea
Palantir isn’t just a company - it’s a founder factory

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

Top 10 #SaaS #Cloud multiples

In Q2 '24 top decile Cloud companies

In Q2 '24 top decile Cloud companies:- Beat estimates by >4%- Guided next quarter >2% above consensus- Grew >33% YoY- Gross Margin >83%- FCF Margin >29%- Net Retention >119%- CAC Payback <21 months $8x8(EGHT)$ $Box(BOX)$ $Blackline Inc.(BL)$ $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ $BigCommerce Holdings(BIGC)$ $Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$ $Asana, Inc.(ASAN)$ $AppFolio(APPF)$ $AmplitudeE, Inc.(AMPL)$
In Q2 '24 top decile Cloud companies

OpenAI S2S API & LiveKit: Revolutionizing Real-Time Voice

OpenAI launching their speech-to-speech real-time voice API is a big deal. It's now possible to build experiences like Advanced Voice Mode. Go build with OpenAI and livekit!Here's why the speech-to-speech API matters so much. Historically models could only accept a text input, and only give a text output. In order to build a voice experience you needed to string together multiple tools. You'd use something like LiveKit to handle all of the network infrastructure and optimization. Then you'd use a speech to text provider to convert the audio file to text to feed into the model. The model runs inference and then spits out text, that is feed into a text-to-speech provider. That audio file is then sent over the network (LiveKit) and played out the speaker in the application. This creates two "
OpenAI S2S API & LiveKit: Revolutionizing Real-Time Voice

Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples

Top 10 SaaS Cloud multiples

Inference pricing on GPT4 models has dropped nearly 90%

OpenAI has shared this chart a few times, but important to call out. Inference pricing on GPT4 family of models has dropped nearly 90% since it's release!This trend will continue. Business models that don't make sense now will in the future. Latent demand will be unlocked.ImageAnd history rhymes. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AWS has seen 60-100+ price reductions in their core S3 and EC2 products since inception. S3 alone has seen nearly a 97% price reduction!Imagehttps://x.com/jaminball/status/1839010468972867892
Inference pricing on GPT4 models has dropped nearly 90%

Clouded Judgement 9.20.24 - Rate Cuts Begin!

It finally happened! The Fed cut rates by 50bps. This represents the first rate cut since the start of the Covid pandemic, and one that has been highly anticipated. There was a little debate on if this cut would be 25bps or 50bps, but we ended up with 50bps. The target fed funds rate now has a range of 4.75% to 5%. The 10Y didn’t change at all, in fact it was slightly up (3.68% last week to 3.72% as of this writing). This goes to show the rate cut was no surprise to the market.This cut signals a transition from the Fed's aggressive inflation-fighting stance to a more balanced approach. The decision to implement a cut on the large end of expectations reflects the Fed's growing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, "We have gain
Clouded Judgement 9.20.24 - Rate Cuts Begin!

Clouded Judgement - 2024 Estimates

Q2 earnings season is now behind us. I’ll provide a more comprehensive recap later, but for now, let’s look at how the future outlook has changed after Q2 earnings. One metric I like to examine is how much companies adjust their full-year guidance. Generally, software companies follow a beat-and-raise model in their forecasts. The “raise” part reflects how much the future outlook (i.e., the guidance) changes. When we compare full-year guidance for 2024 from the Q2 call versus the Q1 call (~3 months ago), you’ll see in the graph below that, for the most part, full-year guidance didn’t change significantly. The median full-year “raise” was only 0.3%.Looking at Q2, the median “beat” (i.e., how much a company’s Q2 results exceeded consensus) was around 1.5%. So, while the median quarterly beat
Clouded Judgement - 2024 Estimates

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