QOmain (E-mini Gold - main 2612)
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Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t","listText":"Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t","text":"Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25c596e44c3e3d86917b4f721c9afe64"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/95408b6f087a0c7ff7ddd7f3144b4ae4"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31d06b9c474b57964078cfcf4b487bce"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":113,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/591476965385200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1785987058943,"id":591476965385200,"gmtCreate":1785400156139,"gmtModify":1785987058943,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply","htmlText":"Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t","listText":"Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t","text":"Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/25c596e44c3e3d86917b4f721c9afe64"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/95408b6f087a0c7ff7ddd7f3144b4ae4"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/31d06b9c474b57964078cfcf4b487bce"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":113,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":8,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/591476965385200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":580642356822112,"type":1,"entity":{"id":580642356822112,"gmtCreate":1782789169918,"gmtModify":1782789619900,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes? Will the Fed's Hawkish Pivot Crash the Market?","htmlText":"After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob","listText":"After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob","text":"After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb2618bba23b15d808882be062031df7","width":"864","height":"490"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":197,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/580642356822112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1782789619900,"id":580642356822112,"gmtCreate":1782789169918,"gmtModify":1782789619900,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes? Will the Fed's Hawkish Pivot Crash the Market?","htmlText":"After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob","listText":"After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob","text":"After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb2618bba23b15d808882be062031df7","width":"864","height":"490"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":197,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/580642356822112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":575414749114448,"type":1,"entity":{"id":575414749114448,"gmtCreate":1781512272060,"gmtModify":1785987064109,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"📰A Mid-Session Pause: The US-Iran Truce Is In — What’s Next for Markets?","htmlText":"After two months of back-and-forth, the US and Iran finally announced over the weekend that a ceasefire memorandum of understanding had been reached. Although the final signing is still a few days away, the market has already fully priced in the impact of the news. Before the fourth quarter, geopolitical issues are expected to stop bothering investors. On the trading side, we still lean toward the view that most assets will remain range-bound over the next one to two quarters. As long as there are attractive relative lows or highs and the risk-reward is acceptable, there will be opportunities to try and trade the move. We will not go into the details of the agreement itself. Those can be found on various financial websites. Instead, we will focus on how asset prices are moving. Crude oil i","listText":"After two months of back-and-forth, the US and Iran finally announced over the weekend that a ceasefire memorandum of understanding had been reached. Although the final signing is still a few days away, the market has already fully priced in the impact of the news. Before the fourth quarter, geopolitical issues are expected to stop bothering investors. On the trading side, we still lean toward the view that most assets will remain range-bound over the next one to two quarters. As long as there are attractive relative lows or highs and the risk-reward is acceptable, there will be opportunities to try and trade the move. We will not go into the details of the agreement itself. Those can be found on various financial websites. Instead, we will focus on how asset prices are moving. Crude oil i","text":"After two months of back-and-forth, the US and Iran finally announced over the weekend that a ceasefire memorandum of understanding had been reached. Although the final signing is still a few days away, the market has already fully priced in the impact of the news. Before the fourth quarter, geopolitical issues are expected to stop bothering investors. On the trading side, we still lean toward the view that most assets will remain range-bound over the next one to two quarters. As long as there are attractive relative lows or highs and the risk-reward is acceptable, there will be opportunities to try and trade the move. We will not go into the details of the agreement itself. Those can be found on various financial websites. Instead, we will focus on how asset prices are moving. Crude oil i","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6f16df5a9bef22949d497106868403e","width":"865","height":"559"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5ab72ad2892560f29f530808d723e7a","width":"865","height":"561"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4ea2e77617a29ce9c60b53c3ff971eb8","width":"864","height":"558"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":46,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575414749114448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1785987064109,"id":575414749114448,"gmtCreate":1781512272060,"gmtModify":1785987064109,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"📰A Mid-Session Pause: The US-Iran Truce Is In — What’s Next for Markets?","htmlText":"After two months of back-and-forth, the US and Iran finally announced over the weekend that a ceasefire memorandum of understanding had been reached. Although the final signing is still a few days away, the market has already fully priced in the impact of the news. Before the fourth quarter, geopolitical issues are expected to stop bothering investors. On the trading side, we still lean toward the view that most assets will remain range-bound over the next one to two quarters. As long as there are attractive relative lows or highs and the risk-reward is acceptable, there will be opportunities to try and trade the move. We will not go into the details of the agreement itself. Those can be found on various financial websites. Instead, we will focus on how asset prices are moving. Crude oil i","listText":"After two months of back-and-forth, the US and Iran finally announced over the weekend that a ceasefire memorandum of understanding had been reached. Although the final signing is still a few days away, the market has already fully priced in the impact of the news. Before the fourth quarter, geopolitical issues are expected to stop bothering investors. On the trading side, we still lean toward the view that most assets will remain range-bound over the next one to two quarters. As long as there are attractive relative lows or highs and the risk-reward is acceptable, there will be opportunities to try and trade the move. We will not go into the details of the agreement itself. Those can be found on various financial websites. Instead, we will focus on how asset prices are moving. Crude oil i","text":"After two months of back-and-forth, the US and Iran finally announced over the weekend that a ceasefire memorandum of understanding had been reached. Although the final signing is still a few days away, the market has already fully priced in the impact of the news. Before the fourth quarter, geopolitical issues are expected to stop bothering investors. On the trading side, we still lean toward the view that most assets will remain range-bound over the next one to two quarters. As long as there are attractive relative lows or highs and the risk-reward is acceptable, there will be opportunities to try and trade the move. We will not go into the details of the agreement itself. Those can be found on various financial websites. Instead, we will focus on how asset prices are moving. Crude oil i","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6f16df5a9bef22949d497106868403e","width":"865","height":"559"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5ab72ad2892560f29f530808d723e7a","width":"865","height":"561"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4ea2e77617a29ce9c60b53c3ff971eb8","width":"864","height":"558"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":46,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/575414749114448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":574401033863872,"type":1,"entity":{"id":574401033863872,"gmtCreate":1781264802723,"gmtModify":1785987064759,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Futures Weekly： Equities Cool, Bonds Heat Up While Gold Falls Out of Favour","htmlText":"Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf","listText":"Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf","text":"Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0c8267fc6c2145f25774c0304f15be3","width":"900","height":"498"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be350fec575f79a593d6f1f351c46a0c","width":"886","height":"591"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2b01d6cab3546f23823fd3b8be9cb34c","width":"900","height":"266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1719,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":35,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/574401033863872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1785987064759,"id":574401033863872,"gmtCreate":1781264802723,"gmtModify":1785987064759,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Futures Weekly： Equities Cool, Bonds Heat Up While Gold Falls Out of Favour","htmlText":"Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf","listText":"Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf","text":"Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0c8267fc6c2145f25774c0304f15be3","width":"900","height":"498"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/be350fec575f79a593d6f1f351c46a0c","width":"886","height":"591"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2b01d6cab3546f23823fd3b8be9cb34c","width":"900","height":"266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1719,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":35,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/574401033863872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":568064845996432,"type":1,"entity":{"id":568064845996432,"gmtCreate":1779699091587,"gmtModify":1779983424259,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"Middle East Nears a Phased Endgame, Crude Oil Retains a Medium- to Long-Term Floor","htmlText":"Following Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices naturally opened with another gap lower at the start of the week. The overall trajectory of geopolitical developments is consistent with what we anticipated in April, and this phase of relative peace is likely to last through the period around the midterm elections toward year-end. Although both technicals and news flow have dealt a double blow to the market, the structural issues in the Middle East will not be fundamentally resolved as a result. Therefore, if oil prices undergo a sufficient pullback going forward, lower levels should still provide solid support. In addition, changes on the news front are unlikely to alter the broader trends of most asset classes;","listText":"Following Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices naturally opened with another gap lower at the start of the week. The overall trajectory of geopolitical developments is consistent with what we anticipated in April, and this phase of relative peace is likely to last through the period around the midterm elections toward year-end. Although both technicals and news flow have dealt a double blow to the market, the structural issues in the Middle East will not be fundamentally resolved as a result. Therefore, if oil prices undergo a sufficient pullback going forward, lower levels should still provide solid support. In addition, changes on the news front are unlikely to alter the broader trends of most asset classes;","text":"Following Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices naturally opened with another gap lower at the start of the week. The overall trajectory of geopolitical developments is consistent with what we anticipated in April, and this phase of relative peace is likely to last through the period around the midterm elections toward year-end. Although both technicals and news flow have dealt a double blow to the market, the structural issues in the Middle East will not be fundamentally resolved as a result. Therefore, if oil prices undergo a sufficient pullback going forward, lower levels should still provide solid support. In addition, changes on the news front are unlikely to alter the broader trends of most asset classes;","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7070bb0edb9e102f9e0f5e5d409d5a16","width":"865","height":"554"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/568064845996432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1779983424259,"id":568064845996432,"gmtCreate":1779699091587,"gmtModify":1779983424259,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"Middle East Nears a Phased Endgame, Crude Oil Retains a Medium- to Long-Term Floor","htmlText":"Following Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices naturally opened with another gap lower at the start of the week. The overall trajectory of geopolitical developments is consistent with what we anticipated in April, and this phase of relative peace is likely to last through the period around the midterm elections toward year-end. Although both technicals and news flow have dealt a double blow to the market, the structural issues in the Middle East will not be fundamentally resolved as a result. Therefore, if oil prices undergo a sufficient pullback going forward, lower levels should still provide solid support. In addition, changes on the news front are unlikely to alter the broader trends of most asset classes;","listText":"Following Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices naturally opened with another gap lower at the start of the week. The overall trajectory of geopolitical developments is consistent with what we anticipated in April, and this phase of relative peace is likely to last through the period around the midterm elections toward year-end. Although both technicals and news flow have dealt a double blow to the market, the structural issues in the Middle East will not be fundamentally resolved as a result. Therefore, if oil prices undergo a sufficient pullback going forward, lower levels should still provide solid support. In addition, changes on the news front are unlikely to alter the broader trends of most asset classes;","text":"Following Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices naturally opened with another gap lower at the start of the week. The overall trajectory of geopolitical developments is consistent with what we anticipated in April, and this phase of relative peace is likely to last through the period around the midterm elections toward year-end. Although both technicals and news flow have dealt a double blow to the market, the structural issues in the Middle East will not be fundamentally resolved as a result. Therefore, if oil prices undergo a sufficient pullback going forward, lower levels should still provide solid support. In addition, changes on the news front are unlikely to alter the broader trends of most asset classes;","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7070bb0edb9e102f9e0f5e5d409d5a16","width":"865","height":"554"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/568064845996432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":568058349261200,"type":1,"entity":{"id":568058349261200,"gmtCreate":1779697505470,"gmtModify":1779983424326,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Strait Reopening Imminent? What Could Be the Market Impact?","htmlText":"Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l","listText":"Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l","text":"Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a47f2c8eaae78d5ac30c2ac9c8034fdd","width":"865","height":"619"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/38c9125101238145e2386b97211ba306","width":"865","height":"553"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7514e0aee2805de7bf57ccf8d15bd73a","width":"865","height":"552"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/568058349261200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1779983424326,"id":568058349261200,"gmtCreate":1779697505470,"gmtModify":1779983424326,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Strait Reopening Imminent? What Could Be the Market Impact?","htmlText":"Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l","listText":"Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l","text":"Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a47f2c8eaae78d5ac30c2ac9c8034fdd","width":"865","height":"619"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/38c9125101238145e2386b97211ba306","width":"865","height":"553"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7514e0aee2805de7bf57ccf8d15bd73a","width":"865","height":"552"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/568058349261200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":567057526469048,"type":1,"entity":{"id":567057526469048,"gmtCreate":1779453164742,"gmtModify":1785987066256,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Futures Weekly： Equity Fund Outflows Narrow, While Gold Allocation Heats Up","htmlText":"In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of","listText":"In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of","text":"In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e9e7fae8e7cc7507969934a0ad0922b1","width":"900","height":"536"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83f17935dcde7f27dc9efbce283b2bb5","width":"894","height":"596"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d694fd4d5886c126fc09f15e17775ed5","width":"900","height":"175"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1399,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":35,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/567057526469048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1785987066256,"id":567057526469048,"gmtCreate":1779453164742,"gmtModify":1785987066256,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"Futures Weekly： Equity Fund Outflows Narrow, While Gold Allocation Heats Up","htmlText":"In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of","listText":"In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of","text":"In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e9e7fae8e7cc7507969934a0ad0922b1","width":"900","height":"536"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/83f17935dcde7f27dc9efbce283b2bb5","width":"894","height":"596"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d694fd4d5886c126fc09f15e17775ed5","width":"900","height":"175"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1399,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":35,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/567057526469048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":566226992230880,"type":1,"entity":{"id":566226992230880,"gmtCreate":1779250484281,"gmtModify":1785987066567,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491416357875149","idStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Has the Pullback in U.S. Stocks Finally Begun? Key Strategies to Watch Right Now","htmlText":"In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character","listText":"In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character","text":"In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5be53b529b2cdfcdde5c5f09584e7ba9","width":"865","height":"406"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2721dfa40632d262b2b8c4ac06169a31","width":"865","height":"402"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b72302f83721ca64d6b77b7dfa2eeda","width":"865","height":"429"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":65,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/566226992230880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1785987066567,"id":566226992230880,"gmtCreate":1779250484281,"gmtModify":1785987066567,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"Owen_trading room","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5d4e379a31618023c7f5cc95a2df3468","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491416357875149","idStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"Has the Pullback in U.S. Stocks Finally Begun? Key Strategies to Watch Right Now","htmlText":"In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character","listText":"In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character","text":"In my previous post, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the short-term trading opportunity at the bottom of VIX, as well as the still-bullish opportunity in short-term crude oil deferred-month contracts, namely the September WTI crude oil contract. A week has passed, and both of those calls have played out: VIX has already bottomed and turned higher: The September crude oil futures contract has rebounded continuously from the bottom, already rising 17 points from its low: This time, let’s talk about the warning I have been repeatedly giving everyone: the issue of a medium- to short-term phased pullback in U.S. stocks. As the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields have both moved higher recently, global bond yields have broadly risen, and a pullback in global risk assets, character","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5be53b529b2cdfcdde5c5f09584e7ba9","width":"865","height":"406"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2721dfa40632d262b2b8c4ac06169a31","width":"865","height":"402"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b72302f83721ca64d6b77b7dfa2eeda","width":"865","height":"429"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":65,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/566226992230880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":9,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":565871490916368,"type":1,"entity":{"id":565871490916368,"gmtCreate":1779163685036,"gmtModify":1779164042411,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"US-China talks stall: risk assets wrestle with yields and a fragile rally","htmlText":"Market regime review and the uncertainty of future directions Last week, Trump’s visit to China dominated most of the headlines, but after the lively atmosphere and optimistic expectations, it ultimately appears that no substantive outcomes were achieved. This led to a decline in most non-dominant risk assets in the latter part of the week, with both gold and silver signaling that the previous round of a corrective rebound has ended. However, as the summer rally approaches, whether a sustained performance can be achieved remains highly variable. Weak relative performance signals for precious metals and non-mainstream metals Silver posted a large upper shadow last week, with a intraday high near $90, but then retraced the gains over the next two trading days. The pace of the rebound is slow","listText":"Market regime review and the uncertainty of future directions Last week, Trump’s visit to China dominated most of the headlines, but after the lively atmosphere and optimistic expectations, it ultimately appears that no substantive outcomes were achieved. This led to a decline in most non-dominant risk assets in the latter part of the week, with both gold and silver signaling that the previous round of a corrective rebound has ended. However, as the summer rally approaches, whether a sustained performance can be achieved remains highly variable. Weak relative performance signals for precious metals and non-mainstream metals Silver posted a large upper shadow last week, with a intraday high near $90, but then retraced the gains over the next two trading days. The pace of the rebound is slow","text":"Market regime review and the uncertainty of future directions Last week, Trump’s visit to China dominated most of the headlines, but after the lively atmosphere and optimistic expectations, it ultimately appears that no substantive outcomes were achieved. This led to a decline in most non-dominant risk assets in the latter part of the week, with both gold and silver signaling that the previous round of a corrective rebound has ended. However, as the summer rally approaches, whether a sustained performance can be achieved remains highly variable. Weak relative performance signals for precious metals and non-mainstream metals Silver posted a large upper shadow last week, with a intraday high near $90, but then retraced the gains over the next two trading days. The pace of the rebound is slow","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7110b59ed2c3a7c555d78182aaf5ff0f","width":"865","height":"560"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0fd5315854cc663f0d6d410c394abe51","width":"865","height":"556"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0659af5dd908c078c291f5075304cd19","width":"865","height":"565"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":124,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/565871490916368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1779164042411,"id":565871490916368,"gmtCreate":1779163685036,"gmtModify":1779164042411,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"US-China talks stall: risk assets wrestle with yields and a fragile rally","htmlText":"Market regime review and the uncertainty of future directions Last week, Trump’s visit to China dominated most of the headlines, but after the lively atmosphere and optimistic expectations, it ultimately appears that no substantive outcomes were achieved. This led to a decline in most non-dominant risk assets in the latter part of the week, with both gold and silver signaling that the previous round of a corrective rebound has ended. However, as the summer rally approaches, whether a sustained performance can be achieved remains highly variable. Weak relative performance signals for precious metals and non-mainstream metals Silver posted a large upper shadow last week, with a intraday high near $90, but then retraced the gains over the next two trading days. The pace of the rebound is slow","listText":"Market regime review and the uncertainty of future directions Last week, Trump’s visit to China dominated most of the headlines, but after the lively atmosphere and optimistic expectations, it ultimately appears that no substantive outcomes were achieved. This led to a decline in most non-dominant risk assets in the latter part of the week, with both gold and silver signaling that the previous round of a corrective rebound has ended. However, as the summer rally approaches, whether a sustained performance can be achieved remains highly variable. Weak relative performance signals for precious metals and non-mainstream metals Silver posted a large upper shadow last week, with a intraday high near $90, but then retraced the gains over the next two trading days. The pace of the rebound is slow","text":"Market regime review and the uncertainty of future directions Last week, Trump’s visit to China dominated most of the headlines, but after the lively atmosphere and optimistic expectations, it ultimately appears that no substantive outcomes were achieved. This led to a decline in most non-dominant risk assets in the latter part of the week, with both gold and silver signaling that the previous round of a corrective rebound has ended. However, as the summer rally approaches, whether a sustained performance can be achieved remains highly variable. Weak relative performance signals for precious metals and non-mainstream metals Silver posted a large upper shadow last week, with a intraday high near $90, but then retraced the gains over the next two trading days. The pace of the rebound is slow","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7110b59ed2c3a7c555d78182aaf5ff0f","width":"865","height":"560"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0fd5315854cc663f0d6d410c394abe51","width":"865","height":"556"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0659af5dd908c078c291f5075304cd19","width":"865","height":"565"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":124,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/565871490916368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":565622732652984,"type":1,"entity":{"id":565622732652984,"gmtCreate":1779102873283,"gmtModify":1785987066862,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Trump’s China Visit Ends Below Expectations, Has the Short-Term Pullback in U.S. Stocks Begun?","htmlText":"Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the","listText":"Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the","text":"Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/332645e24d877f32b1039531a6926fc0","width":"865","height":"523"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":52,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/565622732652984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1785987066862,"id":565622732652984,"gmtCreate":1779102873283,"gmtModify":1785987066862,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Trump’s China Visit Ends Below Expectations, Has the Short-Term Pullback in U.S. Stocks Begun?","htmlText":"Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the","listText":"Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the","text":"Trump’s much-anticipated visit to China came to a quiet close. China’s reception was high-level and formal, but after the visit, no joint statement was issued. Instead, the results were mainly reflected through the two sides’ separate communiqués. Compared with Trump’s 2017 visit, which produced a $253.5 billion deal package, this visit focused more on stabilizing the strategic relationship and restoring institutional channels. From the market’s perspective, the two sides agreed to mutual tariff reductions, and the U.S. opened up sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips. Trump also claimed that China had committed to purchasing $20 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and a large amount of U.S. soybeans. However, in the actual announcements, China did not provide any specific procurement figures. For the","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/332645e24d877f32b1039531a6926fc0","width":"865","height":"523"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":52,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/565622732652984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":564515610690016,"type":1,"entity":{"id":564515610690016,"gmtCreate":1778832666522,"gmtModify":1778843393489,"author":{"id":"4231919089627522","authorId":"4231919089627522","name":"Reynor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a50bab06c4e0eaf414f6f20630f089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4231919089627522","idStr":"4231919089627522"},"themes":[],"title":"CFTC Positioning Study: Copper Crowded Longs","htmlText":"What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca","listText":"What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca","text":"What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dffd947649ebc91e9442d862e052176","width":"865","height":"450"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1248fcd3b9441e9bb8f38770708f8456","width":"865","height":"535"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d50c8b25354ab680fa112d14e0692e7f","width":"865","height":"437"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":60,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/564515610690016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":11,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1778843393489,"id":564515610690016,"gmtCreate":1778832666522,"gmtModify":1778843393489,"author":{"id":"4231919089627522","authorId":"4231919089627522","name":"Reynor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a50bab06c4e0eaf414f6f20630f089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4231919089627522","idStr":"4231919089627522"},"themes":[],"title":"CFTC Positioning Study: Copper Crowded Longs","htmlText":"What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca","listText":"What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca","text":"What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3dffd947649ebc91e9442d862e052176","width":"865","height":"450"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1248fcd3b9441e9bb8f38770708f8456","width":"865","height":"535"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d50c8b25354ab680fa112d14e0692e7f","width":"865","height":"437"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":60,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/564515610690016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":11,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":563425723220128,"type":1,"entity":{"id":563425723220128,"gmtCreate":1778574449608,"gmtModify":1778843908892,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"Cryptocurrency Trading Opportunities: Shift to Bitcoin and Ethereum Breakouts","htmlText":"Cooling Tensions in the Middle East and Shift in Market Focus As previously anticipated, with the 30/60-day overseas military operation cycle reaching its end without further escalation, the situation in the Middle East has naturally entered a phase of “unstable peace.” This implies that the primary market narrative will extend for another 1–2 quarters, and most asset classes will fall into broad range-bound fluctuations. At this stage, after a sustained rebound, crypto assets may present opportunities to sell at higher levels. Crypto assets, which had dominated market attention in recent years, reached their peak and began to decline after Trump’s second term in the White House. A major contributing factor was the “algorithmic” liquidation event in October last year. Following this event,","listText":"Cooling Tensions in the Middle East and Shift in Market Focus As previously anticipated, with the 30/60-day overseas military operation cycle reaching its end without further escalation, the situation in the Middle East has naturally entered a phase of “unstable peace.” This implies that the primary market narrative will extend for another 1–2 quarters, and most asset classes will fall into broad range-bound fluctuations. At this stage, after a sustained rebound, crypto assets may present opportunities to sell at higher levels. Crypto assets, which had dominated market attention in recent years, reached their peak and began to decline after Trump’s second term in the White House. A major contributing factor was the “algorithmic” liquidation event in October last year. Following this event,","text":"Cooling Tensions in the Middle East and Shift in Market Focus As previously anticipated, with the 30/60-day overseas military operation cycle reaching its end without further escalation, the situation in the Middle East has naturally entered a phase of “unstable peace.” This implies that the primary market narrative will extend for another 1–2 quarters, and most asset classes will fall into broad range-bound fluctuations. At this stage, after a sustained rebound, crypto assets may present opportunities to sell at higher levels. Crypto assets, which had dominated market attention in recent years, reached their peak and began to decline after Trump’s second term in the White House. A major contributing factor was the “algorithmic” liquidation event in October last year. Following this event,","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b3a619d24a549a3f0e53903ec9336da"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":28,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/563425723220128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1778843908892,"id":563425723220128,"gmtCreate":1778574449608,"gmtModify":1778843908892,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"Cryptocurrency Trading Opportunities: Shift to Bitcoin and Ethereum Breakouts","htmlText":"Cooling Tensions in the Middle East and Shift in Market Focus As previously anticipated, with the 30/60-day overseas military operation cycle reaching its end without further escalation, the situation in the Middle East has naturally entered a phase of “unstable peace.” This implies that the primary market narrative will extend for another 1–2 quarters, and most asset classes will fall into broad range-bound fluctuations. At this stage, after a sustained rebound, crypto assets may present opportunities to sell at higher levels. Crypto assets, which had dominated market attention in recent years, reached their peak and began to decline after Trump’s second term in the White House. A major contributing factor was the “algorithmic” liquidation event in October last year. Following this event,","listText":"Cooling Tensions in the Middle East and Shift in Market Focus As previously anticipated, with the 30/60-day overseas military operation cycle reaching its end without further escalation, the situation in the Middle East has naturally entered a phase of “unstable peace.” This implies that the primary market narrative will extend for another 1–2 quarters, and most asset classes will fall into broad range-bound fluctuations. At this stage, after a sustained rebound, crypto assets may present opportunities to sell at higher levels. Crypto assets, which had dominated market attention in recent years, reached their peak and began to decline after Trump’s second term in the White House. A major contributing factor was the “algorithmic” liquidation event in October last year. Following this event,","text":"Cooling Tensions in the Middle East and Shift in Market Focus As previously anticipated, with the 30/60-day overseas military operation cycle reaching its end without further escalation, the situation in the Middle East has naturally entered a phase of “unstable peace.” This implies that the primary market narrative will extend for another 1–2 quarters, and most asset classes will fall into broad range-bound fluctuations. At this stage, after a sustained rebound, crypto assets may present opportunities to sell at higher levels. Crypto assets, which had dominated market attention in recent years, reached their peak and began to decline after Trump’s second term in the White House. A major contributing factor was the “algorithmic” liquidation event in October last year. Following this event,","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b3a619d24a549a3f0e53903ec9336da"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":28,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/563425723220128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":2,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":563100849238840,"type":1,"entity":{"id":563100849238840,"gmtCreate":1778497013157,"gmtModify":1778843904464,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"“NACHO” Takes Hold: Persistent Oil Risks and the Return of Reflation Trades","htmlText":"The New Term “NACHO” and Shifting Market Expectations Recently, new buzzwords have been emerging in financial markets. Following “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out), another term—“NACHO”—has quietly gained traction among traders. “NACHO” stands for Not A Chance Hormuz Opens, implying that there is little hope for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, this reflects the market’s declining confidence in a swift reopening of the strait, leading to expectations that elevated oil prices will persist far longer than previously anticipated, thereby reigniting longer-term inflation. The emergence of this term also signals a shift in market focus—from short-term price fluctuations to a broader consideration of assets’ inflation-hedging characteristics over a longer hori","listText":"The New Term “NACHO” and Shifting Market Expectations Recently, new buzzwords have been emerging in financial markets. Following “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out), another term—“NACHO”—has quietly gained traction among traders. “NACHO” stands for Not A Chance Hormuz Opens, implying that there is little hope for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, this reflects the market’s declining confidence in a swift reopening of the strait, leading to expectations that elevated oil prices will persist far longer than previously anticipated, thereby reigniting longer-term inflation. The emergence of this term also signals a shift in market focus—from short-term price fluctuations to a broader consideration of assets’ inflation-hedging characteristics over a longer hori","text":"The New Term “NACHO” and Shifting Market Expectations Recently, new buzzwords have been emerging in financial markets. Following “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out), another term—“NACHO”—has quietly gained traction among traders. “NACHO” stands for Not A Chance Hormuz Opens, implying that there is little hope for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, this reflects the market’s declining confidence in a swift reopening of the strait, leading to expectations that elevated oil prices will persist far longer than previously anticipated, thereby reigniting longer-term inflation. The emergence of this term also signals a shift in market focus—from short-term price fluctuations to a broader consideration of assets’ inflation-hedging characteristics over a longer hori","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deb53625528c60186074a882c8fd7977"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41ac8dcffb6aa1615ccbde25b2ca374e"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c6a325817639e91ed45d4eac7624f791"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":89,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/563100849238840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4136897647765072","authorId":"4136897647765072","name":"SuperDuper1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4136897647765072","idStr":"4136897647765072"},"content":"It ain’t about TACO or Nacho anymore .. it is all about AI Hype.","text":"It ain’t about TACO or Nacho anymore .. it is all about AI Hype.","html":"It ain’t about TACO or Nacho anymore .. it is all about AI Hype."}],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4136897647765072","authorId":"4136897647765072","name":"SuperDuper1","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4136897647765072","idStr":"4136897647765072"},"content":"It ain’t about TACO or Nacho anymore .. it is all about AI Hype.","text":"It ain’t about TACO or Nacho anymore .. it is all about AI Hype.","html":"It ain’t about TACO or Nacho anymore .. it is all about AI Hype."}],"streamModify":1778843904464,"id":563100849238840,"gmtCreate":1778497013157,"gmtModify":1778843904464,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"“NACHO” Takes Hold: Persistent Oil Risks and the Return of Reflation Trades","htmlText":"The New Term “NACHO” and Shifting Market Expectations Recently, new buzzwords have been emerging in financial markets. Following “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out), another term—“NACHO”—has quietly gained traction among traders. “NACHO” stands for Not A Chance Hormuz Opens, implying that there is little hope for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, this reflects the market’s declining confidence in a swift reopening of the strait, leading to expectations that elevated oil prices will persist far longer than previously anticipated, thereby reigniting longer-term inflation. The emergence of this term also signals a shift in market focus—from short-term price fluctuations to a broader consideration of assets’ inflation-hedging characteristics over a longer hori","listText":"The New Term “NACHO” and Shifting Market Expectations Recently, new buzzwords have been emerging in financial markets. Following “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out), another term—“NACHO”—has quietly gained traction among traders. “NACHO” stands for Not A Chance Hormuz Opens, implying that there is little hope for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, this reflects the market’s declining confidence in a swift reopening of the strait, leading to expectations that elevated oil prices will persist far longer than previously anticipated, thereby reigniting longer-term inflation. The emergence of this term also signals a shift in market focus—from short-term price fluctuations to a broader consideration of assets’ inflation-hedging characteristics over a longer hori","text":"The New Term “NACHO” and Shifting Market Expectations Recently, new buzzwords have been emerging in financial markets. Following “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out), another term—“NACHO”—has quietly gained traction among traders. “NACHO” stands for Not A Chance Hormuz Opens, implying that there is little hope for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Essentially, this reflects the market’s declining confidence in a swift reopening of the strait, leading to expectations that elevated oil prices will persist far longer than previously anticipated, thereby reigniting longer-term inflation. The emergence of this term also signals a shift in market focus—from short-term price fluctuations to a broader consideration of assets’ inflation-hedging characteristics over a longer hori","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/deb53625528c60186074a882c8fd7977"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/41ac8dcffb6aa1615ccbde25b2ca374e"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c6a325817639e91ed45d4eac7624f791"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":89,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/563100849238840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":562024788034360,"type":1,"entity":{"id":562024788034360,"gmtCreate":1778234302902,"gmtModify":1778234784910,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"📊Futures Weekly：Mild Net Outflows in US Equity Funds While Massive Capital Bets on the Bond Market","htmlText":"Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of \"extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace.\" Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated \"Operation Liberty\" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the \"acceptance of Pakistani mediation.\" During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-","listText":"Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of \"extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace.\" Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated \"Operation Liberty\" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the \"acceptance of Pakistani mediation.\" During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-","text":"Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of \"extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace.\" Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated \"Operation Liberty\" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the \"acceptance of Pakistani mediation.\" During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f5165305b2c04f0492f04803301afca"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6901d5e938e0d4d703758f8a7004fb59"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e780660f29a8dc2a823ab707132c33f"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":81,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/562024788034360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580519485452891","authorId":"3580519485452891","name":"Options777","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b5839016d4f4335984717c3b350642a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3580519485452891","idStr":"3580519485452891"},"content":"TLDR version; lots of numbers and words but explains as much as saying water is wet","text":"TLDR version; lots of numbers and words but explains as much as saying water is wet","html":"TLDR version; lots of numbers and words but explains as much as saying water is wet"}],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580519485452891","authorId":"3580519485452891","name":"Options777","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1b5839016d4f4335984717c3b350642a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3580519485452891","idStr":"3580519485452891"},"content":"TLDR version; lots of numbers and words but explains as much as saying water is wet","text":"TLDR version; lots of numbers and words but explains as much as saying water is wet","html":"TLDR version; lots of numbers and words but explains as much as saying water is wet"}],"streamModify":1778234784910,"id":562024788034360,"gmtCreate":1778234302902,"gmtModify":1778234784910,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"📊Futures Weekly：Mild Net Outflows in US Equity Funds While Massive Capital Bets on the Bond Market","htmlText":"Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of \"extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace.\" Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated \"Operation Liberty\" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the \"acceptance of Pakistani mediation.\" During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-","listText":"Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of \"extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace.\" Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated \"Operation Liberty\" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the \"acceptance of Pakistani mediation.\" During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-","text":"Over the past week, the situation in the Middle East has presented a state of \"extreme stalemate, neither war nor peace.\" Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the United States briefly initiated \"Operation Liberty\" in an attempt to escort trapped vessels out. However, following a strong response from Iran, US President Donald Trump officially announced the suspension of the plan on May 5, citing the \"acceptance of Pakistani mediation.\" During this period, Iranian officials reiterated that the strait would not reopen unless dictated by national will, leaving energy supply chain risks elevated. On May 7, local time, a new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the sudden outbreak of hostilities, US President Donald Trump insisted that the US-","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9f5165305b2c04f0492f04803301afca"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6901d5e938e0d4d703758f8a7004fb59"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e780660f29a8dc2a823ab707132c33f"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":81,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/562024788034360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":558831241933160,"type":1,"entity":{"id":558831241933160,"gmtCreate":1777466118408,"gmtModify":1778843891113,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"A Higher Probability Path of “Unstable Peace” Under Remote Signaling Dynamics","htmlText":"Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo","listText":"Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo","text":"Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2f61ed604e8fc1a9cc44150d0857649"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab5b4e7202df57d575f8a5c0fe89b0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/769952e4a0691fbb7f506a696dc022ff"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":202,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558831241933160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1778843891113,"id":558831241933160,"gmtCreate":1777466118408,"gmtModify":1778843891113,"author":{"id":"3534312667271286","authorId":"3534312667271286","name":"程俊Dream","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a751a4f333aa358f9ddfe4404800ee2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3534312667271286","idStr":"3534312667271286"},"themes":[],"title":"A Higher Probability Path of “Unstable Peace” Under Remote Signaling Dynamics","htmlText":"Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo","listText":"Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo","text":"Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d2f61ed604e8fc1a9cc44150d0857649"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/faab5b4e7202df57d575f8a5c0fe89b0"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/769952e4a0691fbb7f506a696dc022ff"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":202,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558831241933160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":3,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":558506301702968,"type":1,"entity":{"id":558506301702968,"gmtCreate":1777375297450,"gmtModify":1778843884319,"author":{"id":"4231919089627522","authorId":"4231919089627522","name":"Reynor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a50bab06c4e0eaf414f6f20630f089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4231919089627522","idStr":"4231919089627522"},"themes":[],"title":"CFTC Data: Copper Sentiment Heats Up as Gold Fades","htmlText":"What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see \"who is buying and who is selling.\" CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun","listText":"What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see \"who is buying and who is selling.\" CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun","text":"What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see \"who is buying and who is selling.\" CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd77d03d624d814ff9aa607d8e49ec04"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e5a0f1a22cef2e910a76cb0338ad3907"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97e6c919d63ca3904e5840c4cbe77e87"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":63,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558506301702968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":11,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1778843884319,"id":558506301702968,"gmtCreate":1777375297450,"gmtModify":1778843884319,"author":{"id":"4231919089627522","authorId":"4231919089627522","name":"Reynor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a50bab06c4e0eaf414f6f20630f089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4231919089627522","idStr":"4231919089627522"},"themes":[],"title":"CFTC Data: Copper Sentiment Heats Up as Gold Fades","htmlText":"What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see \"who is buying and who is selling.\" CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun","listText":"What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see \"who is buying and who is selling.\" CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun","text":"What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see \"who is buying and who is selling.\" CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dd77d03d624d814ff9aa607d8e49ec04"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e5a0f1a22cef2e910a76cb0338ad3907"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97e6c919d63ca3904e5840c4cbe77e87"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":63,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558506301702968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":11,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":558104805212624,"type":1,"entity":{"id":558104805212624,"gmtCreate":1777288852593,"gmtModify":1778843872740,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Crude Oil Opportunities Emerge in Volatile Markets as Gold Faces Selling Pressure","htmlText":"Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed. Market Reaction and Inflation Outlook Persistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference","listText":"Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed. Market Reaction and Inflation Outlook Persistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference","text":"Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed. Market Reaction and Inflation Outlook Persistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c7e1ac0c998922c593aa67fabd8cf33"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c684f446944af2436ab3376f3b345ef4"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ebbf53beabfaadc58dd69b5cda47d42a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":63,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558104805212624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1778843872740,"id":558104805212624,"gmtCreate":1777288852593,"gmtModify":1778843872740,"author":{"id":"3527667668727377","authorId":"3527667668727377","name":"Ivan_Gan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667668727377","idStr":"3527667668727377"},"themes":[],"title":"Crude Oil Opportunities Emerge in Volatile Markets as Gold Faces Selling Pressure","htmlText":"Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed. Market Reaction and Inflation Outlook Persistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference","listText":"Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed. Market Reaction and Inflation Outlook Persistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference","text":"Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed. Market Reaction and Inflation Outlook Persistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3c7e1ac0c998922c593aa67fabd8cf33"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c684f446944af2436ab3376f3b345ef4"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ebbf53beabfaadc58dd69b5cda47d42a"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":63,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558104805212624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":558026942055224,"type":1,"entity":{"id":558026942055224,"gmtCreate":1777258266286,"gmtModify":1778843864024,"author":{"id":"4231919089627522","authorId":"4231919089627522","name":"Reynor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a50bab06c4e0eaf414f6f20630f089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4231919089627522","idStr":"4231919089627522"},"themes":[],"title":"Under the New Landscape, Dollar Assets Face Pressure from All Sides and Oil Trading Strategies","htmlText":"Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.","listText":"Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.","text":"Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a501da758582f99bf7fb18c09ac5ad9f"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/60c05b8176d01ab20d4351735801e0ff"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12dbdec195dc59fa5e4245a2634e230d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":57,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558026942055224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1778843864024,"id":558026942055224,"gmtCreate":1777258266286,"gmtModify":1778843864024,"author":{"id":"4231919089627522","authorId":"4231919089627522","name":"Reynor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a50bab06c4e0eaf414f6f20630f089","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4231919089627522","idStr":"4231919089627522"},"themes":[],"title":"Under the New Landscape, Dollar Assets Face Pressure from All Sides and Oil Trading Strategies","htmlText":"Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.","listText":"Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.","text":"Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a501da758582f99bf7fb18c09ac5ad9f"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/60c05b8176d01ab20d4351735801e0ff"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12dbdec195dc59fa5e4245a2634e230d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":57,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/558026942055224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"objectId":556696529441232,"type":1,"entity":{"id":556696529441232,"gmtCreate":1776945035266,"gmtModify":1776999708023,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"📊Futures Weekly：Equity Funds Face Deeper Outflows as Falling Metal Inventories Raise Price Risks","htmlText":"Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps","listText":"Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps","text":"Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/006173742db76d20c25257ccffde4b6d"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81e8acfd5f098ba1b29b99e16383f1cd"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e9d0a1e0857a82012d3384be17da101"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":9,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556696529441232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"comments":[],"streamModify":1776999708023,"id":556696529441232,"gmtCreate":1776945035266,"gmtModify":1776999708023,"author":{"id":"3527667627883060","authorId":"3527667627883060","name":"Tiger_Futures Pro","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e0b17bd96e48707e49a6ee695f3babc5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667627883060","idStr":"3527667627883060"},"themes":[],"title":"📊Futures Weekly：Equity Funds Face Deeper Outflows as Falling Metal Inventories Raise Price Risks","htmlText":"Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps","listText":"Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps","text":"Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/006173742db76d20c25257ccffde4b6d"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81e8acfd5f098ba1b29b99e16383f1cd"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7e9d0a1e0857a82012d3384be17da101"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":9,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/556696529441232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"imageCount":17,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"newsList":[],"exchange":{"abbreviation":"New York Commodity Exchange","code":"COMEX","exchangeId":"FT_EX_COMEX","name":"COMEX","securityType":"FUT","status":"Online","weight":30,"zone":"EDT","zoneId":"America/New_York","zoneName":"Eastern Daylight Time"},"contract":{"categoryId":"FT_CA_Precious_Metal","contractCode":"QO2612","contractId":"1d14fd18407d4d09a453424b10968d7b","contractMonth":"202612","currency":"USD","currencyName":"USD","deliveryMode":"Cash","description":{"productExchangeUrl":"https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/e-mini-gold.contractSpecs.html","productPriceIncrement":"0.25 (USD/troy ounce)（US$12.5）","productScale":"50 troy ounces","productTradingMonth":"Monthly contracts (Feb, Apr, Jun, Aug, Oct, Dec) falling within a 24-month period","productTradingTime":"18:00（T-1）-17:00","productType":"Precious Metal","productWorth":"US$50 x futures price","worth":50},"exchangeCode":"COMEX","exchangeId":"FT_EX_COMEX","firstNoticeDate":"","firstNoticeDateTimestamp":0,"hasVWAP":false,"isContinuous":false,"isMain":false,"isOmnibusTrade":true,"isTrade":true,"lastTradingDate":"20261125","lastTradingDateTimestamp":1795644000000,"multiplier":{"offset":0,"value":50},"name":"E-mini Gold - Dec 2026","overnightSupported":false,"productId":"FT_PD_QO_FUT","productPriceConfig":{"displayMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1},"maxScale":2,"priceIncrements":[{"displayPriceIncrement":{"offset":2,"value":25},"priceLowerLimit":{"offset":0,"value":0},"priceUpperLimit":{"offset":0,"value":0}}],"quotesScale":{"offset":2,"value":1},"quotesVendorMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1},"tradeMultiplier":{"offset":0,"value":1}},"quotesDisplayType":"Simple","referMainContractCode":"QOmain","referMainContractId":"a25a3d33699741ecbac1b83b90fd47ed","securityType":"FUT","status":"Online","symbol":"QO","symbolId":"FT_SY_QO","symbolName":"E-mini Gold"}}