Why a pickup in both insider selling and share buybacks is a red flag for stocks

MarketWatch2021-04-12

Corporate insiders are buying company stock with one hand and selling with the other. Corporate insiders are aggressively selling with one hand what they’re buying with the other and that’s not a good...

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Comments

BigRobin
2021-04-12
BigRobin
Comment and like thanks
Trooper
2021-04-12
Trooper
[微笑]
- TrooperReplyDZEnterprise:
  ok
- Ming83:
  reply
- DZEnterprise:
  pay it forward
IamBolt
2021-04-12
IamBolt
Like and comment
- AS78:
  Done. Please like and comment back, thanks
- DZEnterprise:
  pay it forward
- AS78ReplyDZEnterprise:
  Thanks
JackOATrades
2021-04-12
JackOATrades
How do ppl become insiders ?
- Kikiooi:
  They aRe top managEment
VicVic3527
2021-04-12
VicVic3527
Insider movements are important
- Zarkness:
  Y?
- Kikiooi:
  Agree. insider iNfo
Davidgoh18
2021-04-12
Davidgoh18
Somehow make sense

Leave a comment

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And, via share repurchases, they’re buying with other peoples’ money — their corporate cash. Companies historically have been wrong more than right in timing stock buybacks.\nEarlier this year I wrote about insiders’ aggressive selling from their own accounts, and this has become even more pronounced in the weeks since. Winston Chua, a data analyst at EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence, reports that insider selling in the first quarter of this year was at a 14-year high.\nAt the same time that insider selling has jumped, companies have also accelerated the pace of repurchasing their shares. The total of stock buybacks in the first quarter, according to Chua, was the most in seven quarters.\nTo appreciate how bad companies are at timing their share repurchases, take a look at the chart below. It plots the S&P 500’sSPX,+0.77%so-called buyback yield: total repurchases of S&P 500 companies in a given quarter as a percentage of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Notice that the lowest buyback yields over the past 15 years occurred at the two most significant bear market bottoms — March 2009 and March 2020.\n\nIf companies had good market-timing skills in deciding when to repurchase shares, of course, the buyback yield would have been highest at those bottoms, not lowest. Just the reverse would have been the case at the 2007 bull market high: If companies were good market timers, the buyback yield would have been lowest then, rather than at one of its highest levels in decades.\nIt’s probably not an accident that insider selling and share repurchases are trending higher at the same time. Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, explains why:\n“Say you’re a CEO, and you have 10 million shares of stock options [that you want to redeem],” he told me a couple of months ago. “You’ll want to mitigate market impact by doing a stock buyback at the same time. So, noisily announce a 10 million share stock buyback for a certain date… Issue yourself 10 million shares of new stock at about the same time and promptly sell it. Change in the float of the stock? None. Perception in the marketplace? ‘They did another big buyback! Applause!’”\nArnott was speaking hypothetically, but if you have any doubt that the situation he describes is real, consider a study published in the November 2018 issue of Review of Financial Studies entitled “Strategic News Releases in Equity Vesting Months.” Its authors are Alex Edmans and Moqi Groen-Xu of the London Business School; Luis Gonclaves-Pinto of the Chinese University of Hong Kong; and Yanbo Wang of Sungkyunkwan University.\nThe researchers found strong evidence that the average CEO in the U.S. manipulates the flow of news about his company in his “vesting” months, increasing the frequency of positive news and delaying or killing neutral or negative stories. These vesting months represent the first opportunity the CEO has to sell shares or exercise options granted him in prior years. One way in which executives manipulate this flow of positive news is to strategically time the announcement of a new share repurchase program. The authors conclude that the CEO’s manipulation “generates a temporary increase in stock prices and market liquidity, which the CEO exploits by cashing out shortly afterwards.”\nThis research also helps us to understand why the stock market remains so strong despite aggressive insider selling from their own accounts: The increase in share repurchases softens the bearish impact of that selling. Be forewarned: History teaches us that share repurchases only temporarily postpone that impact.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":342845398,"gmtCreate":1618202969114,"gmtModify":1704707464321,"author":{"id":"3576794832586725","authorId":"3576794832586725","name":"BigRobin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bd188d11433a12be927e0d94ecf3c28","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Comment and like thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like thanks&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like 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and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342807353","repostId":1106270602,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4012578,"gmtCreate":1618196194444,"gmtModify":1680783709184,"authorId":3554958921608603,"author":{"id":3554958921608603,"authorId":3554958921608603,"name":"AS78","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d392d10a42f496e319268418e7602694","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":342807353,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done. Please like and comment back, thanks","text":"Done. Please like and comment back, thanks","html":"Done. Please like and comment back, thanks"},{"id":4012719,"gmtCreate":1618197115092,"gmtModify":1680783704879,"authorId":3578455735381463,"author":{"id":3578455735381463,"authorId":3578455735381463,"name":"DZEnterprise","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7173ad0d94fff9dc8c4a3982e29f6728","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 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days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.06","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":342807353,"type":1,"supId":4012578,"prevId":4012719,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":342802893,"gmtCreate":1618194715212,"gmtModify":1704707349778,"author":{"id":"3578225630518844","authorId":"3578225630518844","name":"JackOATrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a864e0513924ced47472353efa85e296","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"How do ppl become insiders ?","listText":"How do ppl become insiders ?","text":"How do ppl become insiders ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/342802893","repostId":1106270602,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4012560,"gmtCreate":1618196109740,"gmtModify":1680783704154,"authorId":3574639507377836,"author":{"id":3574639507377836,"authorId":3574639507377836,"name":"Kikiooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81135f833a61d8d0899dff1c77b07e72","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":342802893,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"They aRe top managEment ","text":"They aRe top managEment ","html":"They aRe top managEment "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":342802334,"gmtCreate":1618194671828,"gmtModify":1704707349617,"author":{"id":"3575073792751116","authorId":"3575073792751116","name":"VicVic3527","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda7fa213d1bbf7a7c7ffe74e08d9e71","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Insider movements are important&nbsp;","listText":"Insider movements are important&nbsp;","text":"Insider movements are 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