英国债市史诗级动荡，最大“火药桶”为什么是养老金？

华尔街见闻2022-09-29

作者：卜淑情据华尔街见闻此前提及，英国央行周三出手干预债市最重要的一个原因在于英国养老基金面临大规模追加保证金的要求。媒体援引知情人士透露，投资银行和基金经理最近几天警告英国央行，追加保证金的要求可能引发英国债市崩盘。养老基金之所以能对英国债市产生摧枯拉朽的破坏力，是因为它通过负债驱动型投资策略对其债务进行了高杠杆对冲，在金边债券（英国政府发行的国债）收益率持续飙升的情况下，为支付巨额保证金，持有...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

DKTED
2022-09-30
DKTED
1
hangyuliang
2022-09-29
hangyuliang
[微笑]
- hangyuliang:
  [微笑]
Linda2240
2022-09-29
Linda2240
[微笑]
- Paulyang:
  赞一个
- Linda2240:
  [微笑]
yuliang559
2022-09-29
yuliang559
[微笑]
- yuliang559:
  [微笑]
Mingzu
2022-09-29
Mingzu
[微笑]
liuxiangwei
2022-09-29
liuxiangwei
[微笑]
- liuxiangwei:
  [微笑]

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110631384?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/741a7a9152b273ef524b8d371b44958e","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-09-29 23:22","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1110631384","market":"uk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"英国债市史诗级动荡，最大“火药桶”为什么是养老金？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>作者：卜淑情据华尔街见闻此前提及，英国央行周三出手干预债市最重要的一个原因在于英国养老基金面临大规模追加保证金的要求。媒体援引知情人士透露，投资银行和基金经理最近几天警告英国央行，追加保证金的要求可能引发英国债市崩盘。养老基金之所以能对英国债市产生摧枯拉朽的破坏力，是因为它通过负债驱动型投资策略对其债务进行了高杠杆对冲，在金边债券（英国政府发行的国债）收益率持续飙升的情况下，为支付巨额保证金，持有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"live_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英国债市史诗级动荡，最大“火药桶”为什么是养老金？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英国债市史诗级动荡，最大“火药桶”为什么是养老金？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-29 23:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：卜淑情据华尔街见闻此前提及，英国央行周三出手干预债市最重要的一个原因在于英国养老基金面临大规模追加保证金的要求。媒体援引知情人士透露，投资银行和基金经理最近几天警告英国央行，追加保证金的要求可能引发英国债市崩盘。养老基金之所以能对英国债市产生摧枯拉朽的破坏力，是因为它通过负债驱动型投资策略对其债务进行了高杠杆对冲，在金边债券（英国政府发行的国债）收益率持续飙升的情况下，为支付巨额保证金，持有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"EWU","symbol_name":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538","article_id":"1110631384","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/741a7a9152b273ef524b8d371b44958e"],"rights":{"source":"live_wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110631384","pubTimestamp":1664464935,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"live_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"若养老基金大规模撤出英国国债，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"translate_title":"The British bond market is in epic turmoil. Why is the biggest \"powder keg\" pension?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea2a3326484b25168332d2aa101b1e90","symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9},"content_text":"作者：卜淑情据华尔街见闻此前提及，英国央行周三出手干预债市最重要的一个原因在于英国养老基金面临大规模追加保证金的要求。媒体援引知情人士透露，投资银行和基金经理最近几天警告英国央行，追加保证金的要求可能引发英国债市崩盘。养老基金之所以能对英国债市产生摧枯拉朽的破坏力，是因为它通过负债驱动型投资策略对其债务进行了高杠杆对冲，在金边债券（英国政府发行的国债）收益率持续飙升的情况下，为支付巨额保证金，持有万亿英镑资产的养老基金可能会大规模抛售金边债券。LDI+高杠杆对冲负债驱动型投资（LDI）是养老基金为英国债市埋下的第一颗大雷。长期以来，英国多数养老基金一直采用负债驱动型投资来对冲负债（未来支付给养老金客户的款项），通过该策略，养老基金可以将其负债与计划的资产相匹配。这可以通过一个简单的模型中说明：如果养老基金需要在2046年向客户支付100万英镑的养老金，那么基金可以购买于该年到期的金边债券。如果买到优质的收益率更高的企业债券，基金可以在购买债券之余使用额外的资金投资股市、房地产或其他成长型资产。更进一步，养老基金可以使用利率掉期或通胀掉期来匹配长期负债。这就意味着，养老基金只需要投入初始保证金进行交易，而国债收益率变动方向决定该基金是缴纳还是收获保证金。具体来看，在国债收益率上行时，养老基金需要向交易对手缴纳保证金，相反则赢得交易对手的保证金。因此，通过利率掉期进行对冲的养老基金面临一定的杠杆。这个杠杆有多大？根据英国养老金监管机构2019年进行的调查，在英国前600家养老基金（总资产约为7000亿英镑）中，有62%的养老金通过利率掉期进行杠杆投资，利率掉期投资规模占所有杠杆投资的43%，允许的最大杠杆水平为1倍至7倍！一旦收益率上行，养老基金将面临追加保证金的要求，被迫提供更多抵押品。实际上，早在7月就有媒体报道，英国养老基金面临追加保证金通知。在过去一年中，英国国债收益率持续上升，其中英国30年期国债收益率从去年10月的1.12%飙升至今年七月的3.93%。若养老基金大规模撤出，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾庞大的资金规模是养老基金为英国债市埋下的第二颗雷。虽然风险极高，LDI策略在金边债券收益率下降的日子里仍帮助英国养老基金迅速扩张。投资协会（Investment Association）的数据显示，在截至2020年的10年中，英国养老基金通过LDI策略持有的英国资产增加了两倍，达到1.5万亿英镑。这一数字相当于什么概念？除去英格兰银行持有的国债后，养老基金持有的资产占英国机构资产管理市场的40%，占英国GDP的三分之二以及整个金边债券市场的规模。目前尚不清楚养老基金到底持有多大规模的英国国债，但分析认为这一规模十分巨大，如果养老基金大规模撤出英国国债，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾。导火索：英国半世纪以来最激进的减税计划上周五，英国宣布了半个世纪以来最激进的减税计划，该计划在英国金边债券市场掀起了抛售浪潮，英国30年期国债收益率在短短几天内飙升了120个基点。国债收益率飙升，养老基金面临的追加保证金水涨船高。养老金咨询公司XPS投资主管Ben Gold估计，自英国政府公布减税计划以来，英国养老基金已收到至少10亿英镑的追加保证金通知。他表示，在其公司提供咨询服务的400个养老金计划中，大约有三分之二受到了影响。为支付巨额保证金，英国养老基金可能不得不抛售大量金边债券和其他流动资产，进一步使英国债市承压，推高国债收益率，这将导致需缴纳的保证金像滚雪球一样越来越大。对此，卡尔达诺投资公司首席投资官Kerrin Rosenberg表示：如果英国央行今天没有干预，金边债券收益率可能会从早上的4.5%上升到7-8%，在这种情况下，大约90%的英国养老基金将用完抵押品，他们会被消灭！正如华尔街见闻此前分析，为防止养老基金大规模出逃英国国债给债市带来致命打击，英国央行扭转了长期以来的“不干预”策略，并宣布无限量购买英国国债。英国央行周三发布声明称，将“以任何必要的规模”临时购买英国长期国债，以恢复英国债券市场秩序。随后，英国央行表示将在二级市场购买剩余期限超过20年的传统英国国债。受此影响，英国国债暴涨，英国30年期国债收益率一度下行100个基点。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":668848793,"gmtCreate":1664550487514,"gmtModify":1676537476194,"author":{"id":"3560270530016088","authorId":"3560270530016088","name":"DKTED","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/668848793","repostId":1110631384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9916008945,"gmtCreate":1664466177388,"gmtModify":1676537461022,"author":{"id":"3581648325885484","authorId":"3581648325885484","name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916008945","repostId":1110631384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104148053,"gmtCreate":1664466183239,"gmtModify":1664466186555,"authorId":3581648325885484,"author":{"id":3581648325885484,"authorId":3581648325885484,"name":"hangyuliang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/666befce0f00a6a00c265bccefcc9033","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9916008945,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9916001582,"gmtCreate":1664466041946,"gmtModify":1676537461015,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916001582","repostId":1110631384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104151919,"gmtCreate":1664498264426,"gmtModify":1664498268334,"authorId":3573356109011085,"author":{"id":3573356109011085,"authorId":3573356109011085,"name":"Paulyang","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9916001582,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">赞一个</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">赞一个</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">赞一个</span>"},{"id":104148033,"gmtCreate":1664466047321,"gmtModify":1664466051132,"authorId":3581665781703479,"author":{"id":3581665781703479,"authorId":3581665781703479,"name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9916001582,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9916003206,"gmtCreate":1664465842405,"gmtModify":1676537460973,"author":{"id":"3581663680495191","authorId":"3581663680495191","name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916003206","repostId":1110631384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104147982,"gmtCreate":1664465848285,"gmtModify":1664465851768,"authorId":3581663680495191,"author":{"id":3581663680495191,"authorId":3581663680495191,"name":"yuliang559","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9916003206,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9916003197,"gmtCreate":1664465731719,"gmtModify":1676537460965,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916003197","repostId":1110631384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9916009918,"gmtCreate":1664465548335,"gmtModify":1676537460910,"author":{"id":"3582688457818684","authorId":"3582688457818684","name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916009918","repostId":1110631384,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104147947,"gmtCreate":1664465553963,"gmtModify":1664465557507,"authorId":3582688457818684,"author":{"id":3582688457818684,"authorId":3582688457818684,"name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9916009918,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">[微笑]</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":45,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1110631384"}