美股9月“魔咒”再度应验，抛售何时将接近终点？

第一财经2022-10-02

恐慌指数VIX站稳30关口，资金博弈超跌反弹。美股在新一轮抛售中结束了三季度，9月“魔咒”再度上演，三大股指跌向近两年低位。随着政策预期依然激进，投资者担心未来的加息将进一步拖累美国经济，同时溢出效应恐波及全球，引发货币和债券市场的波动风险。然而另一方面，衍生品市场交易热度升温，大量资金博弈股指超跌反弹，即将公布的非农就业报告或成为未来一周市场震荡的导火索。美联储强化鹰派立场在上月美联储议息会议上...

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Comments

雨点尔
2022-10-03
雨点尔
謝謝分享
Xiaowanmian
2022-10-03
Xiaowanmian
10月份如何？
Xiaowanmian
2022-10-03
Xiaowanmian
20月份呢？
二黑姐
2022-10-03
二黑姐
～
Chongwei168
2022-10-03
Chongwei168
👍
幸福满天飞
2022-10-03
幸福满天飞
[微笑]

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Schwartz）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，美联储的态度显示，他们决心推行限制性货币政策，直到通胀尽快回到2.0%的目标。预计利率在明年初触及本轮周期高位后将继续保持稳定，直到增长放缓和通胀降低为2024年的降息留出空间。最新公布的数据也为美联储的行动提供了支持，首先通胀压力依然高涨，作为最关注的通胀指标之一，美国8月个人消费支出物价指数PCE涨幅超过市场预期。其次，劳动力市场表现健康，最新初请失业金人数降至19.3万，创今年4月以来新低，这与美联储希望看到的正好相反，火热的就业环境可能成为推高通胀的潜在风险。10月7日美国将公布9月非农就业报告，一旦就业数据超预期或进一步加剧外界对于政策过度收紧的担忧。施瓦茨告诉记者，消费者仍在支撑经济。尽管价格高企且不断上涨，但个人消费小幅增长，这得益于强劲的就业市场和不断增长的收入。美联储显然不会对最新收入和支出报告中的价格指标感到满意，因此他们有强烈的动机继续加息，直到通胀趋势被打破。政策预期也继续推高美债收益率，与利率关联密切的2年期美债收益率站上4.2%，基准10年期美债收益率则突破3.8%关口。芝商所CME利率观察工具FedWatch显示，11月加息75基点和12月加息50基点的概率均略超过50%。施瓦茨认为，在通胀压力持续居高不下的情况下，预计美联储将在年底前将利率再提高125个基点。他认为，美国下半年经济增长将出现温和反弹，但持续高通胀、更积极的美联储货币政策紧缩、全球经济活动放缓的负面溢出效应以及企业盈利疲软，这些因素将推动美国经济在2023年上半年进入温和衰退。与此同时，金融市场动荡加剧，也给增长前景带来了下行风险。超跌反弹临近但风险犹存受通胀高烧不退的影响，8月以来美联储对加息的激进立场将美股进一步推入熊市，三大股指已经连续第三个季度下跌。个股表现持续低迷。据财经数据供应商FactSet的统计，标普500指数中有96家公司的股价触及52周新低，B.Riley Wealth首席市场策略师霍根（Art Hogan）表示：“如果要止跌，我们需要看到的是通胀显著降低，但现在还没有出现。因此这不会改变一直推动股市下跌的局面，也不会改变投资者情绪的反应。”除了对货币政策的担忧以外，多份业绩预警也引发了广泛关注。近一周来，耐克和嘉年华均在财报中提及了与通胀相关的利润压力。美国最大内存芯片制造商美光科技上季度营收同比下降约20%至66.4亿美元，为2020年疫情以来首次下降，并发布了疲弱的业绩指引。与此同时，大型科技股的经营也受到了经济压力的影响。苹果因需求放缓放弃了今年增产iPhone 14的计划，公司现在预计今年下半年的iPhone销量保持在9000万部左右，与2021年的销量大致相同。脸书母公司 Meta Platform则宣布Meta冻结招聘，并将进行人员和团队重组，并削减成本和转移优先事项。股指波动环境下，CBOE恐慌指数VIX上周收于31.62，连续第二周处于30关口上方。衍生品交易再度活跃，根据嘉信理财提供的数据，9月以来美股期权日均交易量达到了4330万份，逼近去年11月创下的历史峰值。嘉信理财交易和衍生品董事总经理弗雷德里克（Randy Frederick）认为，过去一周，恐慌指数VIX看涨期权未平仓量环比增加13.3%，看跌期权未平仓量增长25%，变动幅度是正常水平的5倍至10倍，显示出随着波动性高位运行，资金开始博弈超跌反弹。标普500指数10月表现统计（资料来源：道琼斯市场）历史数据显示，10月美股有望迎来企稳回升，特别是在经历了大幅杀跌后的情况下。道琼斯市场数据统计发现，自标普指数创立以来，9月下跌了7%或以上的情况共11次，接下来的10月指数平均上涨0.53%，中位数上涨1.81%。不过潜在的反弹预期并不意味着风险已经远去。美银证券首席投资策略师哈特内特（Michael 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