雨点尔 personal page - To The Moon

雨点尔

雨点尔

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2023-07-17

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@Ulysses Nichol(s): 主力黃金波段，輕鬆找買點 #shorts From Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soIppWU7F9k

2023-04-13

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2023-04-11

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2023-04-10

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2023-04-09

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2023-04-08

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2023-04-07

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2023-04-06

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2023-01-08

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2022-12-25

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2022-12-13

$胜科海事(S51.SI)$

2022-12-12

$挚文集团(MOMO)$

2022-04-27

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2022-04-24

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2022-04-23

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2022-04-17

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Breaking news! The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing 530

2022-04-15

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2022-04-11

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One-third of the world's natural diamond producers have just been sanctioned.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing 530","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144854803","media":"中国人民银行","summary":"4月15日，中国人民银行：中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 15, the People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022.</p><p>To support the development of the real economy and promote a steady decline in overall financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have already implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio). To increase support for micro and small enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers, city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5% will be reduced by an additional 0.25 percentage points on top of the 0.25 percentage point reduction in the deposit reserve ratio. Following this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will prioritize stability, seek progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid excessive easing, take into account internal and external balance, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both quantity and structure, maintain reasonably ample liquidity, ensure that the growth rates of money supply and social financing are basically in line with the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ada880b3dbaa518de26c2db245ace44\" tg-width=\"1470\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of reserve requirement ratio cuts</b></p><p><b>Why the reserve requirement ratio cut?</b></p><p>Ming Ming, co-chief economist at CITIC Securities, said that although the scale of MLF maturities in the coming quarter is low, there are still liquidity gaps caused by peak tax periods, concentrated issuance of government bonds, and large scale of interbank certificates of deposit maturities, which may be triggers for the reserve requirement ratio cut. Secondly, from the perspective of expanding the scale of new loans, the current excess reserve ratio of banks is declining again. It is necessary to further guide financial institutions to increase credit issuance and lower loan interest rates. On the one hand, it is necessary to make up for the medium- and long-term funding gap, and on the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the cost of debt.</p><p>Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities, believes that the pandemic has exacerbated the uncertainty of economic fundamentals and increased downward pressure on the economy. Currently, monetary policy is still primarily aimed at stabilizing growth, with a focus on credit. Credit is the most effective means of easing credit and an effective way to promote enterprises to expand capital expenditure and prevent financial idling.</p><p>Huang Wentao, chief economist at CITIC Securities, analyzed that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing: First, the impact of the pulse-like epidemic has had a significant impact on domestic and international demand and confidence. Currently, the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China still has a significant impact on my country's economy, and various issues such as consumption, real estate, infrastructure, and income are facing considerable pressure. Especially with the first-quarter economic data about to be released, we believe that the first-quarter data may be lower than market expectations. Secondly, export momentum may decline, the momentum of economic recovery has weakened, the economic peak has passed, there are unfavorable factors for overseas recovery, and durable goods and other product types that are suitable for my country's exports have also been slightly overdrawn in the early stages. Third, the domestic real estate sector and its industrial chain are facing liquidity pressures and the impact of defaults, resulting in a rapid decline in the growth rate of the entire industrial chain.</p><p><b>The implementation of the reserve requirement ratio cut will help businesses overcome difficulties during the pandemic, boost the real economy, and help stabilize stocks and bonds.</b></p><p>China Merchants Fund commented that the State Council executive meeting on April 13 pointed out that \"large banks with high provision levels should be encouraged to orderly reduce their provision coverage ratios,\" and in terms of monetary policy, it emphasized \"further increasing financial support for the real economy, especially for industries severely affected by the epidemic, as well as small and micro enterprises and individual businesses.\"</p><p>Under the impact of the pandemic, banks reduced their provision coverage ratios, which helped increase the support of credit funds to the real economy; At the same time, increasing support for industries and micro and small enterprises severely affected by the epidemic has obvious characteristics of helping enterprises overcome difficulties during the epidemic and also helps to ease credit.</p><p>However, it should be noted that due to the current sluggish financing demand of the real economy and the suppression of economic vitality by the pandemic, under the circumstances of loose liquidity, it is necessary to be wary of idle funds and enterprises \"borrowing new to repay old ones\", which may weaken the actual stimulating effect of monetary easing on the real economy to some extent.</p><p>In the capital market, after each reserve requirement ratio cut, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 have a higher short-term win rate, while the medium- to long-term win rate has declined but the gains have widened. The bond market is better able to reflect expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts in advance, and interest rates fluctuate after the reserve requirement ratio cut is implemented Therefore, given that market expectations for this reserve requirement ratio cut are already relatively full, it is expected that the reserve requirement ratio cut will be beneficial to the stock market in the short term, but to the bond market to a limited extent.</p><p><b>Xinhua Fund's commentary on the reserve requirement ratio cut: It is beneficial to the market to some extent, and undervalued sectors that will benefit from stabilizing growth in the short term are expected to continue to outperform.</b></p><p>Zhang Lin, Director of Research and Fund Manager at Xinhua Fund, said that the core purpose of the reserve requirement ratio cut is to provide credit support to industries affected by the epidemic and small and medium-sized enterprises, reduce their financing costs, and thus stabilize employment. This demonstrates the regulators' determination and attitude to stabilize the economy, which is beneficial to the market and will change the rhythm of market operation. However, considering the impact of economic fundamentals on the market, it will not change the overall direction of market operation.</p><p>We believe that the sporadic outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and overseas geopolitical conflicts since the end of February have had a significant impact on stabilizing growth and the pattern of corporate profit distribution. The economic stabilization momentum in January and February failed to continue in March. With the sharp rise in the prices of resources such as crude oil again, the pattern of corporate profit distribution will also deteriorate in the short term. The economy will face pressure to break 5% in the first quarter. Looking ahead, fiscal measures and a recovery in social financing are relatively certain, and the real estate market is also expected to recover to the level of 2019. The main variable is that virus mutation is increasingly demanding higher levels of lockdowns, which will have a more severe impact on the economy. All of the above macroeconomic changes have put pressure on the market. With consumption and infrastructure constrained by the pandemic in the second and third quarters, and real estate investment struggling to recover quickly, the government lacks a clear \"tool\" to stabilize growth. Therefore, even if the unemployment rate reaches a turning point after the pandemic, the speed of employment recovery may still be slower than expected. If the government faces difficulties in achieving its 5.5% employment target this year, the central bank may use MLF interest rate cuts to support the economy and promote employment, temporarily shelving the exchange rate and capital outflow risks caused by the inverted interest rate differential between China and the United States. As policies are actively addressing the greater uncertainties and challenges facing economic operations, undervalued sectors that will benefit from stabilizing growth in the short term are expected to continue to outperform, while overweight opportunities in growth sectors will need to wait for the effective control of the pandemic and the economy to stabilize again.</p><p><b>The impact of the reserve requirement ratio cut on the bond market is relatively limited; the equity market may experience a structural rebound in the future.</b></p><p>Zou Deli, General Manager of the Fixed Income Investment Department of Great Wall Fund, said that economic growth is currently facing significant pressure due to weak stock market performance, continued sluggish real estate sales, and especially the localized outbreak of the epidemic in many places. Against the backdrop of stabilizing growth and easing credit, credit issuance further increased in March and April. At this time, supporting credit issuance through liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts is a suitable window of opportunity.</p><p>He pointed out that, historically, reserve requirement ratio cuts will not affect the central bank's decision on whether to cut interest rates. This week's State Council executive meeting's proposal to \"reduce overall financing costs\" requires more interest rate cuts to be realized. Moreover, the pandemic has impacted economic growth expectations, and we believe that the MLF and LPR rates may be further lowered. The best time to cut interest rates is in the second quarter, while April, during the Fed's rate hike gap, might be a better option.</p><p>Given the current relatively strong expectations of monetary easing, the impact of the reserve requirement ratio cut on the bond market is relatively limited. The State Council meeting mentioned that the 10-year Treasury Bond will only decline by about 2 basis points after the reserve requirement ratio cut, and the key is whether the policy interest rate will be lowered. If the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is lowered, the bond market will see a major boost, and bond yields will decline further. Overall, the bond market is bullish in the first half of this year due to the pressure on economic growth brought about by the spread of the pandemic, and may bear in the second half due to the stimulation of economic recovery. In the equity market, after the overall surge in the previous two years, expectations for full-year investment returns should perhaps be lowered. However, it is currently at the bottom of policy and the bottom of the market, and a structural rebound is possible in the future.</p><p><b>Stock market impact</b></p><p>According to Xingzheng Strategy, the implementation of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is expected to boost market sentiment in the short term. The probability of the market rising in the week following each RRR cut is relatively high, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 300 both having a 60% probability of rising. Looking at the median price change, the ChiNext index outperformed the CSI 300 in the week following the implementation of the reserve requirement ratio cut, and the growth and consumption indices outperformed the cyclical and financial indices in terms of style.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a8ae8b1a97f0339dd07a63ec5794d8\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"782\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bond market impact</b></p><p>According to the fixed income team at GF Securities, the impact on the bond market: liquidity is unlikely to ease further, and expectations may shift towards looser credit.</p><p>The impact of the reserve requirement ratio cut on interest rates mainly has two aspects: one is liquidity. The impact of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut on bond market yields through liquidity ultimately depends on how stable the overnight funding rate will be after the RRR cut: 1.5%, 1.8%, or 2.0%. Funding rates directly affect bond market interest rates through leveraged funding costs.</p><p>Second, at the expectation level. After policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts are implemented, bond market investors are concerned about whether there will be further interest rate cuts, which often determines the room for long-term interest rates to decline. We expect that under the external constraints of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy, the possibility of lowering the MLF and reverse repurchase rates in the short term after the reserve requirement ratio cut has decreased in order to balance external balance.</p><p>Once the reserve requirement ratio cut is implemented, we need to be wary of the bond market following the logic of \"all the positive factors have been exhausted,\" and the main theme of the bond market may shift from the realization of expectations of loose monetary policy to the implementation of loose credit.</p><p><b>Besides the reserve requirement ratio cut, will there be another interest rate cut</b></p><p>The market is concerned about whether, in addition to the reserve requirement ratio cut, there will also be interest rate cuts.</p><p>On the 15th, it was reported that the market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism recently held a meeting to encourage small and medium-sized banks to lower the upper limit of deposit interest rate fluctuations by about 10 basis points (BP). This requirement should not be mandatory, but banks that make adjustments may benefit from their macro-prudential assessment (MPA) assessment.</p><p>Dongwu Securities analysis suggests that some reserve requirement ratio cuts can be expected, while others cannot.</p><p>At this stage, the possibility of lowering financing costs for the real economy and driving new credit expansion through interest rate cuts is weak. According to the statements made at the People's Bank of China's first-quarter regular meeting and the State Council executive meeting, ensuring \"reasonably ample liquidity\" is the guiding principle of the People's Bank of China's recent open market operations. With the US CPI breaking through 8.5% and not yet peaking, the Federal Reserve's tightening pace will accelerate further. Under this expectation, other overseas central banks also quickly followed suit with tightening measures, such as the UK and Canada. In comparison, apart from the inverted interest rate differential between China and the United States, China's 10-year Treasury Bond spreads with the EU, the United Kingdom, and Germany are all narrowing rapidly. Maintaining the stability of my country's currency and creating a capital haven are the main obstacles hindering my country's interest rate cuts.</p><p>Reducing loan interest rates and corporate financing costs by unleashing the potential of LPR reform should be the main approach to monetary policy at this stage. According to the guidance of the State Council executive meeting on Wednesday, April 13, \"large banks with high provision levels are encouraged to orderly reduce their provision coverage ratios and use monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts in a timely manner,\" which aims to release more funds to promote bank credit issuance and at the same time reduce bank funding costs. The main focus of current policies is to reduce loan interest rates by reducing the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) allocation and guide banks to offer concessions to enterprises. If the central bank implements a general cut today, the April LPR quote is expected to decline.</p><p>Lian Ping, chief economist at Zhixin Investment, analyzed that there are currently no conditions for a direct interest rate cut.</p><p>Given the strong expectations of continued rate hike from the Federal Reserve, the inverted interest rate differential between China and the United States, and the turbulent international situation, my country's direct reduction of policy interest rates may increase pressure on capital outflows and RMB depreciation, requiring relative caution. my country's current monetary policy will continue to adhere to the principle of \"self-reliance,\" but at a time when weakening external demand, the recovery of Southeast Asian manufacturing, and Western sanctions against Russia may affect my country's exports, interest rate cuts may increase the pressure on my country's internal and external balance. From a policy perspective, the reserve requirement ratio cut is conducive to reducing the funding costs of commercial banks and may further promote a slight reduction in the LPR, which can drive down market interest rates to some extent. However, if interest rates are cut at the same time, the combined effect of the \"double reduction\" policy may be too great, which may easily push up the leverage ratio and increase financial risks.</p><p>China Merchants Fund analysis suggests that interest rates may be cut again after the reserve requirement ratio cut In the past, when the State Council raised the reserve requirement ratio, it would be implemented in most cases, ranging from 1-2 weeks to 2-3 days. Considering the recent repeated announcements of monetary policy by policymakers, the reserve requirement ratio cut on April 15, when the MLF expires, is more appropriate and in line with expectations. Following the reserve requirement ratio cut, interest rates may also be cut, such as the 1-year LPR rate being lowered on April 20; If the pandemic continues to impact the economy, the MLF rate may be lowered again in the second quarter.</p><p><b>The following is the full text from the central bank.</b></p><p>To support the development of the real economy and promote a steady decline in overall financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have already implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio). To increase support for micro and small enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers, city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5% will be reduced by an additional 0.25 percentage points on top of the 0.25 percentage point reduction in the deposit reserve ratio. Following this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will prioritize stability, seek progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid excessive easing, take into account internal and external balance, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both quantity and structure, maintain reasonably ample liquidity, ensure that the growth rates of money supply and social financing are basically in line with the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.</p><p><b>An official from the People's Bank of China answered reporters' questions regarding the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions.</b></p><p><b>Q: What is the purpose of this reserve requirement ratio cut?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>Current liquidity is at a reasonably ample level. The purpose of this reserve requirement ratio cut is twofold: first, to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, increase their long-term stable funding sources, enhance their capital allocation capabilities, and increase support for the real economy. Second, we will guide financial institutions to actively use reserve requirement ratio cut funds to support industries and small and medium-sized enterprises severely affected by the epidemic. Third, this reserve requirement ratio cut will reduce the funding costs of financial institutions by approximately 6.5 billion yuan annually, which, through the transmission of information from financial institutions, can help reduce the overall social financing</p><p><b>Q: How much capital will be released by this reserve requirement ratio cut?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>This reserve requirement ratio cut has released approximately 530 billion yuan in long-term funds. This reserve requirement ratio cut is a comprehensive cut. Except for some legal entity financial institutions that have already implemented the 5% reserve requirement ratio, the reserve requirement ratio has been generally lowered by 0.25 percentage points for other financial institutions. For city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, reducing the deposit reserve ratio by an additional 0.25 percentage points on top of lowering it by 0.25 percentage points will help increase support for small and micro enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers.</p><p><b>Q: What are the overall considerations following this reserve requirement ratio cut?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>The People's Bank will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. First, we must closely monitor changes in price trends and maintain overall price stability. Second, we should closely monitor the adjustments to monetary policies in major developed economies, while also taking into account internal and external balances. At the same time, maintaining reasonably ample liquidity will help reduce overall financing costs and stabilize the overall macroeconomic market.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"111133","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Breaking news! The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing 530</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBreaking news! The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, releasing 530\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国人民银行</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-15 18:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 15, the People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022.</p><p>To support the development of the real economy and promote a steady decline in overall financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have already implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio). To increase support for micro and small enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers, city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5% will be reduced by an additional 0.25 percentage points on top of the 0.25 percentage point reduction in the deposit reserve ratio. Following this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will prioritize stability, seek progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid excessive easing, take into account internal and external balance, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both quantity and structure, maintain reasonably ample liquidity, ensure that the growth rates of money supply and social financing are basically in line with the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ada880b3dbaa518de26c2db245ace44\" tg-width=\"1470\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The impact of reserve requirement ratio cuts</b></p><p><b>Why the reserve requirement ratio cut?</b></p><p>Ming Ming, co-chief economist at CITIC Securities, said that although the scale of MLF maturities in the coming quarter is low, there are still liquidity gaps caused by peak tax periods, concentrated issuance of government bonds, and large scale of interbank certificates of deposit maturities, which may be triggers for the reserve requirement ratio cut. Secondly, from the perspective of expanding the scale of new loans, the current excess reserve ratio of banks is declining again. It is necessary to further guide financial institutions to increase credit issuance and lower loan interest rates. On the one hand, it is necessary to make up for the medium- and long-term funding gap, and on the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the cost of debt.</p><p>Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities, believes that the pandemic has exacerbated the uncertainty of economic fundamentals and increased downward pressure on the economy. Currently, monetary policy is still primarily aimed at stabilizing growth, with a focus on credit. Credit is the most effective means of easing credit and an effective way to promote enterprises to expand capital expenditure and prevent financial idling.</p><p>Huang Wentao, chief economist at CITIC Securities, analyzed that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing: First, the impact of the pulse-like epidemic has had a significant impact on domestic and international demand and confidence. Currently, the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China still has a significant impact on my country's economy, and various issues such as consumption, real estate, infrastructure, and income are facing considerable pressure. Especially with the first-quarter economic data about to be released, we believe that the first-quarter data may be lower than market expectations. Secondly, export momentum may decline, the momentum of economic recovery has weakened, the economic peak has passed, there are unfavorable factors for overseas recovery, and durable goods and other product types that are suitable for my country's exports have also been slightly overdrawn in the early stages. Third, the domestic real estate sector and its industrial chain are facing liquidity pressures and the impact of defaults, resulting in a rapid decline in the growth rate of the entire industrial chain.</p><p><b>The implementation of the reserve requirement ratio cut will help businesses overcome difficulties during the pandemic, boost the real economy, and help stabilize stocks and bonds.</b></p><p>China Merchants Fund commented that the State Council executive meeting on April 13 pointed out that \"large banks with high provision levels should be encouraged to orderly reduce their provision coverage ratios,\" and in terms of monetary policy, it emphasized \"further increasing financial support for the real economy, especially for industries severely affected by the epidemic, as well as small and micro enterprises and individual businesses.\"</p><p>Under the impact of the pandemic, banks reduced their provision coverage ratios, which helped increase the support of credit funds to the real economy; At the same time, increasing support for industries and micro and small enterprises severely affected by the epidemic has obvious characteristics of helping enterprises overcome difficulties during the epidemic and also helps to ease credit.</p><p>However, it should be noted that due to the current sluggish financing demand of the real economy and the suppression of economic vitality by the pandemic, under the circumstances of loose liquidity, it is necessary to be wary of idle funds and enterprises \"borrowing new to repay old ones\", which may weaken the actual stimulating effect of monetary easing on the real economy to some extent.</p><p>In the capital market, after each reserve requirement ratio cut, the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 have a higher short-term win rate, while the medium- to long-term win rate has declined but the gains have widened. The bond market is better able to reflect expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts in advance, and interest rates fluctuate after the reserve requirement ratio cut is implemented Therefore, given that market expectations for this reserve requirement ratio cut are already relatively full, it is expected that the reserve requirement ratio cut will be beneficial to the stock market in the short term, but to the bond market to a limited extent.</p><p><b>Xinhua Fund's commentary on the reserve requirement ratio cut: It is beneficial to the market to some extent, and undervalued sectors that will benefit from stabilizing growth in the short term are expected to continue to outperform.</b></p><p>Zhang Lin, Director of Research and Fund Manager at Xinhua Fund, said that the core purpose of the reserve requirement ratio cut is to provide credit support to industries affected by the epidemic and small and medium-sized enterprises, reduce their financing costs, and thus stabilize employment. This demonstrates the regulators' determination and attitude to stabilize the economy, which is beneficial to the market and will change the rhythm of market operation. However, considering the impact of economic fundamentals on the market, it will not change the overall direction of market operation.</p><p>We believe that the sporadic outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and overseas geopolitical conflicts since the end of February have had a significant impact on stabilizing growth and the pattern of corporate profit distribution. The economic stabilization momentum in January and February failed to continue in March. With the sharp rise in the prices of resources such as crude oil again, the pattern of corporate profit distribution will also deteriorate in the short term. The economy will face pressure to break 5% in the first quarter. Looking ahead, fiscal measures and a recovery in social financing are relatively certain, and the real estate market is also expected to recover to the level of 2019. The main variable is that virus mutation is increasingly demanding higher levels of lockdowns, which will have a more severe impact on the economy. All of the above macroeconomic changes have put pressure on the market. With consumption and infrastructure constrained by the pandemic in the second and third quarters, and real estate investment struggling to recover quickly, the government lacks a clear \"tool\" to stabilize growth. Therefore, even if the unemployment rate reaches a turning point after the pandemic, the speed of employment recovery may still be slower than expected. If the government faces difficulties in achieving its 5.5% employment target this year, the central bank may use MLF interest rate cuts to support the economy and promote employment, temporarily shelving the exchange rate and capital outflow risks caused by the inverted interest rate differential between China and the United States. As policies are actively addressing the greater uncertainties and challenges facing economic operations, undervalued sectors that will benefit from stabilizing growth in the short term are expected to continue to outperform, while overweight opportunities in growth sectors will need to wait for the effective control of the pandemic and the economy to stabilize again.</p><p><b>The impact of the reserve requirement ratio cut on the bond market is relatively limited; the equity market may experience a structural rebound in the future.</b></p><p>Zou Deli, General Manager of the Fixed Income Investment Department of Great Wall Fund, said that economic growth is currently facing significant pressure due to weak stock market performance, continued sluggish real estate sales, and especially the localized outbreak of the epidemic in many places. Against the backdrop of stabilizing growth and easing credit, credit issuance further increased in March and April. At this time, supporting credit issuance through liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts is a suitable window of opportunity.</p><p>He pointed out that, historically, reserve requirement ratio cuts will not affect the central bank's decision on whether to cut interest rates. This week's State Council executive meeting's proposal to \"reduce overall financing costs\" requires more interest rate cuts to be realized. Moreover, the pandemic has impacted economic growth expectations, and we believe that the MLF and LPR rates may be further lowered. The best time to cut interest rates is in the second quarter, while April, during the Fed's rate hike gap, might be a better option.</p><p>Given the current relatively strong expectations of monetary easing, the impact of the reserve requirement ratio cut on the bond market is relatively limited. The State Council meeting mentioned that the 10-year Treasury Bond will only decline by about 2 basis points after the reserve requirement ratio cut, and the key is whether the policy interest rate will be lowered. If the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is lowered, the bond market will see a major boost, and bond yields will decline further. Overall, the bond market is bullish in the first half of this year due to the pressure on economic growth brought about by the spread of the pandemic, and may bear in the second half due to the stimulation of economic recovery. In the equity market, after the overall surge in the previous two years, expectations for full-year investment returns should perhaps be lowered. However, it is currently at the bottom of policy and the bottom of the market, and a structural rebound is possible in the future.</p><p><b>Stock market impact</b></p><p>According to Xingzheng Strategy, the implementation of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is expected to boost market sentiment in the short term. The probability of the market rising in the week following each RRR cut is relatively high, with the ChiNext Index and the CSI 300 both having a 60% probability of rising. Looking at the median price change, the ChiNext index outperformed the CSI 300 in the week following the implementation of the reserve requirement ratio cut, and the growth and consumption indices outperformed the cyclical and financial indices in terms of style.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38a8ae8b1a97f0339dd07a63ec5794d8\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"782\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Bond market impact</b></p><p>According to the fixed income team at GF Securities, the impact on the bond market: liquidity is unlikely to ease further, and expectations may shift towards looser credit.</p><p>The impact of the reserve requirement ratio cut on interest rates mainly has two aspects: one is liquidity. The impact of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut on bond market yields through liquidity ultimately depends on how stable the overnight funding rate will be after the RRR cut: 1.5%, 1.8%, or 2.0%. Funding rates directly affect bond market interest rates through leveraged funding costs.</p><p>Second, at the expectation level. After policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts are implemented, bond market investors are concerned about whether there will be further interest rate cuts, which often determines the room for long-term interest rates to decline. We expect that under the external constraints of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy, the possibility of lowering the MLF and reverse repurchase rates in the short term after the reserve requirement ratio cut has decreased in order to balance external balance.</p><p>Once the reserve requirement ratio cut is implemented, we need to be wary of the bond market following the logic of \"all the positive factors have been exhausted,\" and the main theme of the bond market may shift from the realization of expectations of loose monetary policy to the implementation of loose credit.</p><p><b>Besides the reserve requirement ratio cut, will there be another interest rate cut</b></p><p>The market is concerned about whether, in addition to the reserve requirement ratio cut, there will also be interest rate cuts.</p><p>On the 15th, it was reported that the market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism recently held a meeting to encourage small and medium-sized banks to lower the upper limit of deposit interest rate fluctuations by about 10 basis points (BP). This requirement should not be mandatory, but banks that make adjustments may benefit from their macro-prudential assessment (MPA) assessment.</p><p>Dongwu Securities analysis suggests that some reserve requirement ratio cuts can be expected, while others cannot.</p><p>At this stage, the possibility of lowering financing costs for the real economy and driving new credit expansion through interest rate cuts is weak. According to the statements made at the People's Bank of China's first-quarter regular meeting and the State Council executive meeting, ensuring \"reasonably ample liquidity\" is the guiding principle of the People's Bank of China's recent open market operations. With the US CPI breaking through 8.5% and not yet peaking, the Federal Reserve's tightening pace will accelerate further. Under this expectation, other overseas central banks also quickly followed suit with tightening measures, such as the UK and Canada. In comparison, apart from the inverted interest rate differential between China and the United States, China's 10-year Treasury Bond spreads with the EU, the United Kingdom, and Germany are all narrowing rapidly. Maintaining the stability of my country's currency and creating a capital haven are the main obstacles hindering my country's interest rate cuts.</p><p>Reducing loan interest rates and corporate financing costs by unleashing the potential of LPR reform should be the main approach to monetary policy at this stage. According to the guidance of the State Council executive meeting on Wednesday, April 13, \"large banks with high provision levels are encouraged to orderly reduce their provision coverage ratios and use monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts in a timely manner,\" which aims to release more funds to promote bank credit issuance and at the same time reduce bank funding costs. The main focus of current policies is to reduce loan interest rates by reducing the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) allocation and guide banks to offer concessions to enterprises. If the central bank implements a general cut today, the April LPR quote is expected to decline.</p><p>Lian Ping, chief economist at Zhixin Investment, analyzed that there are currently no conditions for a direct interest rate cut.</p><p>Given the strong expectations of continued rate hike from the Federal Reserve, the inverted interest rate differential between China and the United States, and the turbulent international situation, my country's direct reduction of policy interest rates may increase pressure on capital outflows and RMB depreciation, requiring relative caution. my country's current monetary policy will continue to adhere to the principle of \"self-reliance,\" but at a time when weakening external demand, the recovery of Southeast Asian manufacturing, and Western sanctions against Russia may affect my country's exports, interest rate cuts may increase the pressure on my country's internal and external balance. From a policy perspective, the reserve requirement ratio cut is conducive to reducing the funding costs of commercial banks and may further promote a slight reduction in the LPR, which can drive down market interest rates to some extent. However, if interest rates are cut at the same time, the combined effect of the \"double reduction\" policy may be too great, which may easily push up the leverage ratio and increase financial risks.</p><p>China Merchants Fund analysis suggests that interest rates may be cut again after the reserve requirement ratio cut In the past, when the State Council raised the reserve requirement ratio, it would be implemented in most cases, ranging from 1-2 weeks to 2-3 days. Considering the recent repeated announcements of monetary policy by policymakers, the reserve requirement ratio cut on April 15, when the MLF expires, is more appropriate and in line with expectations. Following the reserve requirement ratio cut, interest rates may also be cut, such as the 1-year LPR rate being lowered on April 20; If the pandemic continues to impact the economy, the MLF rate may be lowered again in the second quarter.</p><p><b>The following is the full text from the central bank.</b></p><p>To support the development of the real economy and promote a steady decline in overall financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022 (excluding financial institutions that have already implemented a 5% reserve requirement ratio). To increase support for micro and small enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers, city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5% will be reduced by an additional 0.25 percentage points on top of the 0.25 percentage point reduction in the deposit reserve ratio. Following this reduction, the weighted average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is 8.1%.</p><p>The People's Bank of China will prioritize stability, seek progress while maintaining stability, continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, avoid excessive easing, take into account internal and external balance, better leverage the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of both quantity and structure, maintain reasonably ample liquidity, ensure that the growth rates of money supply and social financing are basically in line with the nominal economic growth rate, stimulate market vitality, support financing in key areas and weak links, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reform.</p><p><b>An official from the People's Bank of China answered reporters' questions regarding the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions.</b></p><p><b>Q: What is the purpose of this reserve requirement ratio cut?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>Current liquidity is at a reasonably ample level. The purpose of this reserve requirement ratio cut is twofold: first, to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, increase their long-term stable funding sources, enhance their capital allocation capabilities, and increase support for the real economy. Second, we will guide financial institutions to actively use reserve requirement ratio cut funds to support industries and small and medium-sized enterprises severely affected by the epidemic. Third, this reserve requirement ratio cut will reduce the funding costs of financial institutions by approximately 6.5 billion yuan annually, which, through the transmission of information from financial institutions, can help reduce the overall social financing</p><p><b>Q: How much capital will be released by this reserve requirement ratio cut?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>This reserve requirement ratio cut has released approximately 530 billion yuan in long-term funds. This reserve requirement ratio cut is a comprehensive cut. Except for some legal entity financial institutions that have already implemented the 5% reserve requirement ratio, the reserve requirement ratio has been generally lowered by 0.25 percentage points for other financial institutions. For city commercial banks that do not operate across provinces and rural commercial banks with a deposit reserve ratio higher than 5%, reducing the deposit reserve ratio by an additional 0.25 percentage points on top of lowering it by 0.25 percentage points will help increase support for small and micro enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers.</p><p><b>Q: What are the overall considerations following this reserve requirement ratio cut?</b></p><p><b>Answer:</b>The People's Bank will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. First, we must closely monitor changes in price trends and maintain overall price stability. Second, we should closely monitor the adjustments to monetary policies in major developed economies, while also taking into account internal and external balances. At the same time, maintaining reasonably ample liquidity will help reduce overall financing costs and stabilize the overall macroeconomic market.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4531933/index.html\">中国人民银行</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f6756652f6edd7784aff06d489c678","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4531933/index.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144854803","content_text":"4月15日，中国人民银行：中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点。为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。为加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%。中国人民银行将坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，继续实施稳健的货币政策，不搞大水漫灌，兼顾内外平衡，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，保持流动性合理充裕，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，激发市场活力，支持重点领域和薄弱环节融资，为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。降准对市场的影响为何降准？中信证券联席首席经济学家明明称，虽然未来一个季度MLF到期规模低，但是仍然存在税期高峰、政府债券集中发行、同业存单到期规模大等导致的流动性缺口，这些可能作为降准的触发因素。其次，从扩大新增贷款规模的角度来看，当前银行超储率再次下行，要进一步引导金融机构加大信贷投放和降低贷款利率，一方面需要弥补中长期资金缺口，另一方面需要降低负债成本。浙商证券首席经济学家李超认为，疫情加剧经济基本面的不确定性，经济下行压力加大，当前货币政策仍以稳增长为首要目标，发力重点是信贷，信贷是宽信用最有效手段，是推进企业扩大资本开支、防止金融空转的有效途径。中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛分析称，经济下行压力加大：一是脉冲式疫情的冲击对国内外需求和信心产生明显冲击。目前来看，国内散发式的疫情对于我国经济仍有明显影响，消费、地产、基建、收入等各个问题都面临较大压力。特别是在一季度经济数据即将公布的情况下，我们判断一季度数据可能低于市场预期。二是出口的动能可能回落，经济复苏的百度动能减弱，经济高点已过，海外复苏存在不利因素，且耐用品等符合我国出口的产品类型前期也略有透支。三是国内的房地产及其产业链面临流动性压力和违约冲击，全产业链增速快速下滑。降准落地有助于疫情期间助企纾困，提振实体经济，有利于股债企稳。招商基金点评称，4.13国常会指出，“鼓励拨备水平较高的大型银行有序降低拨备覆盖率”，并在货币政策方面强调“进一步加大金融对实体经济特别是受疫情严重影响行业和中小微企业、个体工商户的支持力度”。在疫情冲击之下，银行降低拨备覆盖率，有助于提高信贷资金对实体支持力度；同时对受疫情影响严重的行业和小微企业加大支持，具备明显的疫情助企纾困特征，也有助于宽信用。但需要注意的是，由于当前实体经济融资需求仍低迷、疫情对经济活力进行压制，在流动性宽松情况下，需要警惕资金空转和企业“借新还旧”，这可能一定程度上削弱货币宽松对实体经济的实际拉动效果。对于资本市场，历次降准后，上证综指和沪深300短期胜率较高，中长期胜率下滑但涨幅扩大；债市更能提前反映降准预期，降准落地后利率涨跌不一。因此，鉴于此次降准市场预期已经较为充分，预计降准对股票市场短期利好，对债市利好程度有限。新华基金评降准：对市场的有一定利好，短期受益稳增长的低估值方向预计将继续占优新华基金研究部总监、基金经理张霖表示，降准的核心目的是为了给疫情影响行业和中小微企业宽信用支持，降低其融资成本，从而稳定就业，这表明了监管层稳定经济的决心与态度，对市场的有一定利好，会改变市场运行节奏，但考虑到经济基本面对市场的影响，这不会改变市场总体运行方向。我们认为，2月末以来国内疫情散发和海外地缘政治冲突对于稳增长和企业利润分配格局都造成明显冲击，1-2月经济企稳的势头在3月没能延续，随着原油等资源品价格再次大幅上涨，短期企业利润分配格局也将恶化，一季度经济面临破5压力，往后看，财政发力和社融回升都较为确定，地产也有望向19年水平修复，变数主要在于病毒变异对封锁要求越来越高，对经济冲击更加剧烈，上述宏观层面变化都对市场形成压制。在二、三季度消费、基建受疫情制约，地产投资又难以快速复苏的背景下，政府稳增长缺少明显“抓手”。因此即使疫情过后，失业率显现拐点，就业恢复的速度仍有可能不及预期。而一旦年内政府达成5.5%的就业目标存在困难，央行可能通过MLF降息托底经济、促进就业，暂时搁置中美利差倒挂带来的汇率及资本外流风险。由于政策面正在积极应对经济运行面临的更大不确定性和挑战，短期受益稳增长的低估值方向预计将继续占优，而成长方向的超配机会还需等待疫情有效控制和经济再次企稳。降准对于债券市场影响相对有限 未来权益市场可能迎结构性反弹行情长城基金固定收益投资部总经理邹德立表示，当前在股票市场表现疲软、地产销售持续低迷，特别是多地疫情局部爆发的情况下，经济增长遭遇较大压力。在稳增长、宽信用的背景下，3-4月份信贷投放进一步提高，此时通过降准投放流动性支持信贷投放，是比较合适的时间窗口。他指出，从历史情况来看，降准操作不会影响央行对于是否降息的决策。而本周国常会关于“降低综合融资成本”的提法更多需要降息操作才能够实现，而且疫情冲击经济增长预期，我们判断还会有可能进一步调降MLF和LPR利率。降息比较好的时间窗口在二季度，而四月份处在美联储加息空窗期或许是更好的选择。在当前货币宽松预期比较充分的情景下，降准对于债券市场影响相对有限，国常会提到降准后十年期国债仅下行2BP左右，关键在于政策利率是否调降。如果MLF利率调降，则债券市场迎来重大利好，债券利率将进一步下行。今年总体上，债券市场上半年因为疫情扩散带来经济增长压力而看涨，下半年可能因为刺激经济复苏而看跌。权益市场方面，经过前两年总体上的大涨后，或许应当降低对全年投资回报的期待值，但目前应处于政策底和市场底的阶段，未来有可能迎来结构性反弹行情。股市影响据兴证策略，降准落地有望提振短期市场情绪，历次降准落地后一周市场上涨概率较高，创业板指与沪深300上涨概率均达六成；而从涨跌幅中位数看，降准落地后一周创业板指表现优于沪深300，风格上成长和消费优于周期和金融。债市影响据广发证券固收团队，对债市影响：流动性难更松，预期或转向宽信用降准对利率的影响，主要是两个层面：一是流动性层面。降准通过流动性对债市生的影响，最终要看降准后，隔夜资金利率稳定在什么水平，是1.5%、1.8%还是2.0%。资金利率通过杠杆资金成本，直接对债市利率产生影响。二是预期层面。降准或降息等政策落地后，债市投资者关注后续是否还有降息，这往往决定长端利率下行的空间。我们预计在美联储快速收紧货币政策的外部约束下，为了兼顾外部平衡，降准之后短期内下调MLF和逆回购利率的可能性有所下降。待降准落地之后，需要警惕债市演绎“利多出尽”的逻辑，债市的主线可能从宽货币预期兑现向宽信用落地过渡。除了降准，还会降息吗？市场关心的是，除了降准，还会降息吗？15日，有报道称，近日市场利率定价自律机制召开会议，鼓励中小银行存款利率浮动上限下调10个基点(BP)左右；这一要求应并非强制，但做出调整的银行或将对其宏观审慎评估(MPA)考核有利。东吴证券分析称，等得来的降准等不来的降息。现阶段通过降息促进实体融资成本的下行、推动新增信贷扩张的可能性较弱。根据央行一季度例会和国常会的表述，现阶段保证“流动性合理充裕”是近期央行公开市场操作的主导思想。在美国CPI突破8.5%且尚未见顶的情况下，美联储紧缩步伐将进一步加快。在这一预期下，海外其他央行也快速跟随紧缩，如英国、加拿大。比较下，除中美利差倒挂外，中国对欧盟、英国、德国的10年期国债利差均在迅速缩窄。如何维护我国币值稳定、形成资金洼地是阻碍我国降息的主要掣肘。通过释放LPR改革潜力的方法降低贷款利率和企业融资成本，应是现阶段货币政策的主要发力方式。根据4月13日（周三）国常会的指导，“鼓励拨备水平较高的大型银行有序降低拨备覆盖率，适时运用降准等货币政策工具”意在释放更多资金促进银行信贷投放，同时促进银行资金成本的降低。通过压缩LPR加点部分的方式降低贷款利率、引导银行向企业让利是当前政策的主要发力点。若今日央行实施普降，预计4月LPR报价将出现下行。植信投资首席经济学家连平分析称，当前不具备直接降息的条件。在美联储持续加息预期强烈、中美利差出现倒挂、国际局势动荡等外部复杂情况下，我国直接下调政策利率可能会加大资本流出与人民币贬值压力，需要相对谨慎。当前我国货币政策仍将坚持“以我为主”，但在外需减弱、东南亚制造业恢复、西方对俄制裁等可能波及我国出口之时，降息可能会加重我国内外部平衡的压力。从政策效果来看，降准利于商业银行资金成本下降，可能会进一步推动LPR小幅下调，一定程度上能够推动市场利率下行，但如同时降息，“双降”的政策叠加效果可能会过大，容易推升杠杆率，增大金融风险。招商基金分析称，降准后可能再降息。以往国常会提降准，大部分情况下会落实，慢则 1-2 周，快则 2-3 天，考虑近期政策层多次吹风喊话货币政策，4月15日MLF到期时点降准较为合适，符合预期。降准后，也可能进行降息，如4月20日1年期LPR利率可能会下调；若疫情持续冲击经济，二季度也可能再降MLF利率。以下是央行全文为支持实体经济发展，促进综合融资成本稳中有降，中国人民银行决定于2022年4月25日下调金融机构存款准备金率0.25个百分点（不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构）。为加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度，对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点。本次下调后，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率为8.1%。中国人民银行将坚持稳字当头，稳中求进，继续实施稳健的货币政策，不搞大水漫灌，兼顾内外平衡，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，保持流动性合理充裕，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹配，激发市场活力，支持重点领域和薄弱环节融资，为高质量发展和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币金融环境。中国人民银行有关负责人就下调金融机构存款准备金率答记者问问：此次降准的目的是什么？答：当前流动性已处于合理充裕水平。此次降准的目的，一是优化金融机构资金结构，增加金融机构长期稳定资金来源，增强金融机构资金配置能力，加大对实体经济的支持力度。二是引导金融机构积极运用降准资金支持受疫情严重影响行业和中小微企业。三是此次降准降低金融机构资金成本每年约65亿元，通过金融机构传导可促进降低社会综合融资成本。问：此次降准释放多少资金？答：此次降准共计释放长期资金约5300亿元。此次降准为全面降准，除已执行5%存款准备金率的部分法人金融机构外，对其他金融机构普遍下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点。对没有跨省经营的城商行和存款准备金率高于5%的农商行，在下调存款准备金率0.25个百分点的基础上，再额外多降0.25个百分点，有利于加大对小微企业和“三农”的支持力度。问：此次降准后有什么综合考虑？答：人民银行将继续实施稳健货币政策。一是密切关注物价走势变化，保持物价总体稳定。二是密切关注主要发达经济体货币政策调整，兼顾内外平衡。同时，保持流动性合理充裕，促进降低综合融资成本，稳定宏观经济大盘。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089662329,"gmtCreate":1649988488572,"gmtModify":1676534623309,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578181469213089","authorIdStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089662329","repostId":"2227967106","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014346070,"gmtCreate":1649627521462,"gmtModify":1676534537826,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578181469213089","authorIdStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014346070","repostId":"2226082185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2226082185","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1649585615,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2226082185?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-10 18:13","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"One-third of the world's natural diamond producers have just been sanctioned.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2226082185","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"俄罗斯国有企业、世界上最大的钻石开采公司Alrosa受到了美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）的制裁。OFAC表示，所有客户和其他交易对手必须尽快停止与这家俄罗斯矿商的交易。钻石是俄罗斯价值最高的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Alrosa, a Russian state-owned enterprise and the world's largest diamond mining company, has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).</p><p>OFAC stated that all customers and other counterparties must cease transactions with the Russian miner as soon as possible.</p><p>Diamonds are one of Russia's most valuable non-energy exports, with total exports exceeding $4.5 billion in 2021.</p><p>Alrosa, whose diamond mining capacity accounts for 90% of Russia's total diamond production, is subject to sanctions, which could lead to a 30% reduction in global rough stone reserves, a tight global diamond supply, and a surge in prices.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Alrosa produces as many gemstones as De Beers, an iconic diamond company that held a monopoly until the turn of the century.</p><p>The United States is the most important market for the natural diamond industry, accounting for about half of total sales.</p><p>Last month, U.S. Jewelers such as Tiffany & Co. and Signet Jewelers Ltd. said they would stop buying new diamonds mined in Russia as companies mounted pressure to remove Russian products from their supply chains.</p><p>In addition, a bipartisan group of 11 members of the U.S. Congress is pushing to block the diamond trade from Russia to India. Most of Russia's diamonds are polished in India and can be freely circulated around the world.</p><p>“As things stand, Alrosa’s subsidiaries can also mine diamonds, polish or cut them in India or other countries, and then sell them to the United States without any ban, benefiting the Russian government,” the lawmakers said in a letter.</p><p>Before the global pandemic, diamond prices plummeted due to a sharp drop in demand. According to data from diamond data provider Polished Prices, diamond Prices have fallen by 50% from their peak in 2011 to their low in 2020.</p><p>The sanctions against Alrosa may be a boon for De Beers, as diamond prices may continue to rise, while demand in the United States remains strong, allowing De Beers to gain more market share and profits.</p><p>However, rising prices are bad news for consumers, as they find it difficult to afford a large-carat ring. Perhaps consumers will also begin to turn their attention to cultured diamonds.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One-third of the world's natural diamond producers have just been sanctioned.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne-third of the world's natural diamond producers have just been sanctioned.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-10 18:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Alrosa, a Russian state-owned enterprise and the world's largest diamond mining company, has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).</p><p>OFAC stated that all customers and other counterparties must cease transactions with the Russian miner as soon as possible.</p><p>Diamonds are one of Russia's most valuable non-energy exports, with total exports exceeding $4.5 billion in 2021.</p><p>Alrosa, whose diamond mining capacity accounts for 90% of Russia's total diamond production, is subject to sanctions, which could lead to a 30% reduction in global rough stone reserves, a tight global diamond supply, and a surge in prices.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, Alrosa produces as many gemstones as De Beers, an iconic diamond company that held a monopoly until the turn of the century.</p><p>The United States is the most important market for the natural diamond industry, accounting for about half of total sales.</p><p>Last month, U.S. Jewelers such as Tiffany & Co. and Signet Jewelers Ltd. said they would stop buying new diamonds mined in Russia as companies mounted pressure to remove Russian products from their supply chains.</p><p>In addition, a bipartisan group of 11 members of the U.S. Congress is pushing to block the diamond trade from Russia to India. Most of Russia's diamonds are polished in India and can be freely circulated around the world.</p><p>“As things stand, Alrosa’s subsidiaries can also mine diamonds, polish or cut them in India or other countries, and then sell them to the United States without any ban, benefiting the Russian government,” the lawmakers said in a letter.</p><p>Before the global pandemic, diamond prices plummeted due to a sharp drop in demand. According to data from diamond data provider Polished Prices, diamond Prices have fallen by 50% from their peak in 2011 to their low in 2020.</p><p>The sanctions against Alrosa may be a boon for De Beers, as diamond prices may continue to rise, while demand in the United States remains strong, allowing De Beers to gain more market share and profits.</p><p>However, rising prices are bad news for consumers, as they find it difficult to afford a large-carat ring. Perhaps consumers will also begin to turn their attention to cultured diamonds.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656477\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3cdd0b2f46028be0fdb985c3d97141c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3656477","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2226082185","content_text":"俄罗斯国有企业、世界上最大的钻石开采公司Alrosa受到了美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）的制裁。OFAC表示，所有客户和其他交易对手必须尽快停止与这家俄罗斯矿商的交易。钻石是俄罗斯价值最高的非能源出口之一，2021年的出口总额超过45亿美元。Alrosa公司的钻石开采能力占俄罗斯钻石开采总量的90%，其被制裁意味着可能导致全球原石储量减少30%，全球钻石供应紧张，从而价格飙升。据彭博社报道，Alrosa生产的宝石数量与戴比尔斯（De Beers）相当，戴比尔斯是一家标志性的钻石公司，在本世纪初之前一直处于垄断地位。美国是天然钻石行业最重要的市场，约占总销售额的一半。上个月，美国Tiffany & Co. 和Signet Jewelers Ltd. 等珠宝商表示，随着公司要求将俄罗斯产品从供应链中移除的压力越来越大，他们将停止购买在俄罗斯开采的新钻石。除此之外，由11名美国国会议员组成的两党团体还在推动阻止从俄罗斯到印度的钻石贸易。俄罗斯的大部分钻石都是在印度打磨的，可以在世界各地自由流通。“就目前的情况来看，Alrosa的子公司还可以开采钻石，在印度或其他国家进行打磨或切割，然后在没有任何禁令的情况下卖给美国，为俄罗斯政府谋利。”议员们在一封信中说。在全球疫情之前，由于需求骤降，钻石价格暴跌。据钻石数据提供商Polished Prices的数据显示，从2011年的峰值到2020年的低点，钻石价格已经回落了50%。Alrosa公司受到制裁对戴比尔斯来说或许是个利好，因为钻石价格或将继续上涨，而美国的需求仍然强劲，戴比尔斯能够获得更多的市场份额和利润。然而，不断上涨的价格对消费者来说是个坏消息，因为他们很难买得起一枚大克拉戒指。也许，消费者也将开始把目光转向培育钻石了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9945034191,"gmtCreate":1681318402914,"gmtModify":1681318404636,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578181469213089","idStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945034191","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942898234,"gmtCreate":1681173671428,"gmtModify":1681173674809,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578181469213089","idStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942898234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946721556,"gmtCreate":1681058198876,"gmtModify":1681058202527,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578181469213089","idStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946721556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946285117,"gmtCreate":1680971069439,"gmtModify":1680971071571,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578181469213089","idStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946285117","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946115452,"gmtCreate":1680884682376,"gmtModify":1680884685742,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578181469213089","idStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946115452","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946093157,"gmtCreate":1680800216580,"gmtModify":1680800220426,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578181469213089","idStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946093157","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9948481074,"gmtCreate":1680768466198,"gmtModify":1680768470147,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578181469213089","idStr":"3578181469213089"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,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