The Fed Could Crush the Stock Market Tomorrow, But Don't Panic

Motley Fool2022-09-20

KEY POINTSThe market is expecting another big rate hike from the Fed.But how big that rate hike could be is still a mystery.August data showed that the Fed still has work to do to rein in inflation....

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Comments

LimLS
2022-09-21
LimLS
Here are my thoughts on this. 1) WSJ seems to be the mouthpiece for Fed these days and they are fairly accurate. The latest WSJ article seems to downplay on 1% hike so we should see only 0.75% hike, 2) Powell most likely to be as hawkish as his speech during Jackson Hole last month so do not expect anything dovish. 3) Based on the few Fed officials speech recently, the dot plot from Sept FOMC will be more hawkish than June FOMC, with higher rate for end 2022 and 2023. So not expecting the market to rally after FOMC. But short term market movement are impossible to predict. The market is actually super hawkish now and predicting a higher terminal rate than Fed. So when the dot plot for Sept FOMC comes out and show lower than what the market expects, there might actually be a rally as media
- Vincent1968:
  ok
- Chitz:
  yes
- xinxino:
  Ok
- CET 789:
  [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]
- twm124:
  ok
hlw8888
2022-09-21
hlw8888
"Wall Street is falling down, falling down ~~~" 😖😖😖
patrickLai
2022-09-21
patrickLai
Oh no
- IsleofSkye:
  Sigh...
- patrickLai:
  scary
vaicrazy
2022-09-21
vaicrazy
Ok
- adonis123:
  noted
RieslingHawk
2022-09-21
RieslingHawk
Bond market has priced in a full percentage hike, sell now before you're out of options and left with a heavy bag
Jess261
2022-09-21
Jess261
Okay

Leave a comment

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The market sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling by more than 1,100 points last week. Despite the pain, the worst still may be to come, with the Federal Reserve's September meeting kicking off today and wrapping up tomorrow. Here's how the Fed could crush the stock market tomorrow and also why you shouldn't panic.What kind of rate hike is coming?In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices of a range of daily consumer goods and services, rose 0.1% from July and was up 8.3% year over year. Economists had been penciling in a 0.1% decline from July and the CPI being up 8% year over year. The bigger increase spooked investors because many had assumed that inflation had peaked and could be headed south, but the CPI report did not show this.IMAGE SOURCE: FEDERAL RESERVE ON FLICKR.The longer inflation persists, the longer the Fed has to stay hawkish and raise interest rates, which has roiled markets this year because investors are worried that intense rate hikes will push the economy into a severe recession.Prior to the August inflation data, the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 0.50% or 0.75% following two 0.75% rate hikes at both of the Fed's June and July meetings. After the disappointing inflation data, the market is all but certain there will be at least a 0.75% rate hike, but now some investors think the Fed could even surprise with a full 1% hike.According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, there was an 82% chance on Monday that the Fed would hike its benchmark overnight lending rate, or the federal funds rate, by 0.75% and a 18% chance the Fed would implement a full 1% hike on Wednesday. However, that number had been as high as 20% on Monday morning.I do think a 1% hike would seriously crush the stock market tomorrow. It would be the largest single move by the Fed since the Fed began using the federal funds rate in the 1990s, according to Bloomberg. I also think it would send a message to the market that the U.S. economy has a more serious inflation issue than anyone could have imagined -- even at this point -- if the Fed has to do the full 1% hike.At a conference earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he is worried that a similar situation that happened in the 1970s when \"the public had really come to think of higher inflation as the norm\" could play out now. Powell blamed the Fed in the 1970s for not staying hawkish enough to rein in inflation.Don't rule it outI agree with the market that a 1% hike is unlikely tomorrow. After all, most of the Fed's big rate hikes this year weren't done until June and therefore have still not likely had enough time to fully work their way through the economy.But I'm also not willing to rule out a 1% hike completely given Powell's recent comments and the fact that prices for things like rent have stayed high. Rent is a big expense in a consumer's life, and ever-increasing levels could lead to lingering inflation.Regardless, be prepared for the market to take a hit if the Fed hikes rates by a full point tomorrow. But also don't panic! I do think the Fed will eventually rein in inflation, and that any bear market and recession will eventually be followed by a bull market, a thesis that has held true in market history. Investors that choose stocks with strong business fundamentals and invest with a long-term outlook in mind will be able to ride out this rough patch and succeed.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9919312096,"gmtCreate":1663728548716,"gmtModify":1676537324925,"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorIdStr":"3572923586954779"},"htmlText":"Here are my thoughts on this. 1) WSJ seems to be the mouthpiece for Fed these days and they are fairly accurate. The latest WSJ article seems to downplay on 1% hike so we should see only 0.75% hike, 2) Powell most likely to be as hawkish as his speech during Jackson Hole last month so do not expect anything dovish. 3) Based on the few Fed officials speech recently, the dot plot from Sept FOMC will be more hawkish than June FOMC, with higher rate for end 2022 and 2023. So not expecting the market to rally after FOMC. But short term market movement are impossible to predict. The market is actually super hawkish now and predicting a higher terminal rate than Fed. So when the dot plot for Sept FOMC comes out and show lower than what the market expects, there might actually be a rally as media","listText":"Here are my thoughts on this. 1) WSJ seems to be the mouthpiece for Fed these days and they are fairly accurate. The latest WSJ article seems to downplay on 1% hike so we should see only 0.75% hike, 2) Powell most likely to be as hawkish as his speech during Jackson Hole last month so do not expect anything dovish. 3) Based on the few Fed officials speech recently, the dot plot from Sept FOMC will be more hawkish than June FOMC, with higher rate for end 2022 and 2023. So not expecting the market to rally after FOMC. But short term market movement are impossible to predict. The market is actually super hawkish now and predicting a higher terminal rate than Fed. So when the dot plot for Sept FOMC comes out and show lower than what the market expects, there might actually be a rally as media","text":"Here are my thoughts on this. 1) WSJ seems to be the mouthpiece for Fed these days and they are fairly accurate. The latest WSJ article seems to downplay on 1% hike so we should see only 0.75% hike, 2) Powell most likely to be as hawkish as his speech during Jackson Hole last month so do not expect anything dovish. 3) Based on the few Fed officials speech recently, the dot plot from Sept FOMC will be more hawkish than June FOMC, with higher rate for end 2022 and 2023. So not expecting the market to rally after FOMC. But short term market movement are impossible to predict. The market is actually super hawkish now and predicting a higher terminal rate than Fed. So when the dot plot for Sept FOMC comes out and show lower than what the market expects, there might actually be a rally as 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[Cool]"},{"id":104024003,"gmtCreate":1663731045051,"gmtModify":1663731048703,"authorId":4103447123846720,"author":{"id":4103447123846720,"idStr":"4103447123846720","authorId":4103447123846720,"name":"twm124","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/133c111c9a6cf675442b0a95780a91d0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9919312096,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>ok</u>","text":"<u>ok</u>","html":"<u>ok</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9919912352,"gmtCreate":1663719450276,"gmtModify":1676537321596,"author":{"id":"3561472805649521","authorId":"3561472805649521","name":"hlw8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ac2fb959ae09e12e50b3a31148fe95a","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561472805649521","authorIdStr":"3561472805649521"},"htmlText":"\"Wall Street is falling down, falling down ~~~\" 😖😖😖","listText":"\"Wall Street is falling down, falling down ~~~\" 😖😖😖","text":"\"Wall Street is falling down, falling down ~~~\" 😖😖😖","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919912352","repostId":1122271787,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9919932892,"gmtCreate":1663718654516,"gmtModify":1676537321223,"author":{"id":"3585604372962377","authorId":"3585604372962377","name":"patrickLai","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baedd77ad7c3a28da1ae2ecc8b2e88aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3585604372962377","authorIdStr":"3585604372962377"},"htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh 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$1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.72%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9919930237,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>noted</u>","text":"<u>noted</u>","html":"<u>noted</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9919992673,"gmtCreate":1663718145993,"gmtModify":1676537320959,"author":{"id":"3578973717832794","authorId":"3578973717832794","name":"RieslingHawk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5390eacc9599c6447d4c42f983fcc76","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30fc324d24ff33075e053005564f0df","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3578973717832794","authorIdStr":"3578973717832794"},"htmlText":"Bond market has priced in a full percentage hike, sell now before you're out of options and left with a heavy bag","listText":"Bond market has priced in a full percentage hike, sell now before you're out of options and left with a heavy bag","text":"Bond market has priced in a full percentage hike, sell now before you're out of options and left with a heavy bag","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919992673","repostId":1122271787,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9919908679,"gmtCreate":1663717381092,"gmtModify":1676537320620,"author":{"id":"3586490638953193","authorId":"3586490638953193","name":"Jess261","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586490638953193","authorIdStr":"3586490638953193"},"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919908679","repostId":1122271787,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":428,"commentSize":44,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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