The article is right about the job report had cemented the 0.75% hike for Nov. Fed only cares about the job market and inflation. With the job market so strong, Fed now only need to focus on bringing the inflation down. So 0.75% hike is almost a sure thing now. Additionally, many Fed officials had make their speech this week. All spoke of the same thing. Hike is still needed and high rates are here to stay until end of 2023. Market downturn will not forced Fed to pivot. In fact, Powell already warned us a few times that pain is going to be expected. What do all this means to the market? My opinion is, for the next 6 months, it should still be a downtrend. There may be some relief rally in between but nothing can reverse the general downwards trend. The main news that will reverse the downw

The new Sept FOMC is more hawkish than the June FOMC. The terminal rate for 2022, 2023 is increased and from the dot plot, there is no plan to decrease the rates until 2024, which match with what Powell talks about holding the higher rates for a longer time. The GDP growth is also revised downwards while the unemployment rate is revised upwards. Generally, all these are bad news for the market. As usual, short term market movement for the next few days will be unpredictable. Basically it will depends on how the media wanted to interpret the FOMC data and Powell speech. But for the next 3 months, at least we can be sure the rates will go up another 1-1.25%. Not favourable for the market and may cause the market to test the low in June or even break lower... Be cautious if one is buying

Here are my thoughts on this. 1) WSJ seems to be the mouthpiece for Fed these days and they are fairly accurate. The latest WSJ article seems to downplay on 1% hike so we should see only 0.75% hike, 2) Powell most likely to be as hawkish as his speech during Jackson Hole last month so do not expect anything dovish. 3) Based on the few Fed officials speech recently, the dot plot from Sept FOMC will be more hawkish than June FOMC, with higher rate for end 2022 and 2023. So not expecting the market to rally after FOMC. But short term market movement are impossible to predict. The market is actually super hawkish now and predicting a higher terminal rate than Fed. So when the dot plot for Sept FOMC comes out and show lower than what the market expects, there might actually be a rally as media

Really hard to predict the market. 3900 can hold, but also might break through. Recently many Fed officials are out there, talking down the market with the comments of higher rates needed and need to hold high rates for longer. Brainard came out and talked about this today as well. But what many may not noticed is that she also mentioned of risks becoming two-sided during the tightening cycle. This means she also have fear about over tightening. This coincide with the recent FOMC minutes. So while many Fed officials are talking down the market, claiming high rates, longer period, but do they really have the resolve to do it? There is no need to guess. During Sept FOMC which is 2 weeks later, the dot plot will be reveal. We will know how many Fed officials are really hawkish or fearful

Many Fed officials are already talking about it during the last 2 weeks but the market still decide to rally. Only when Powell talks about the same thing, the market finally reacted. Basically it's the same that Fed is always talking about. High rates of around 4% is needed, rates are here to stay for some time, and yes, there will be pain. Unemployment will go up, market will slow down and might even experience hard landing. Pain, soft/hard landing are already in the speeches during few months ago. It's a real bear market so let's not bluff ourselves. There will be some relief rally from time to time, even as much as 20%. Make use of it if you have the technical skill but do not mistake it as the start of a whole new bull. Take care and be cautious.

Tesla is a strange stock. It's stock that is highly owned by retail investors (around 40%). Institutional investors only owns around 42%, which is pretty low considering the size of Tesla. With so much owned by retail investors, it's more affected by market sentiment, which explained the huge rise and fall. Also means it can rise up fast after the split if someone can create a hype on it. The same can happen at the opposite direction if market sentiment suddenly turn bearish. It's a 50-50 bet. Buy if you are bullish but don't bet your house on it. Oh, forget about all the hype on semi, FSD or robots. These are being repeated for a long time and are already priced in since long ago. It's not overvalued for nothing. Good luck. (Disclaimer: I owned some Tesla so I had my bias too)

The drop should be more of "buy the rumours, sell the news". Tesla had a good run and gain more than a fair bit before the 4th Aug. So now is just selling and profit taking. Comments about recession or whatever is just an excuse used to explain the drop in price. Elon had made worse comments about recession and we don't see the same in drop in price. In fact, he had made positive comments but why not mentioned by the author? Because the price falls instead of rising so can't used the excuse of positive comments. Ha ha.

Its the old trick of "bad news is good news". With "bad news", that means Fed must be less hawkish and start it's pivot soon. The FOMO is getting stronger and stronger. Will retail investors start rushing into the market again? I personally think this is just another relief rally. But for those who think the bottom is over, you can buy some good quality companies. Many of them are now at attractive valuation. As usual, avoid the hype or chase prices that had gone up by a lot.

Market seems to be dovish on Powell speech. But will we see a market drop on the next day, similar to what happen during the last few time when Powell speaks? FOMO seems to be getting stronger and stronger, pushing the market up. Actually we are still far from a pivot from Fed and Powell had clearly stated more hikes and QT are planned. The macro environment (high inflation, slow down in economy, Ukraine war, high oil, etc) is still the same. Wondered what is actually pushing the market up. 

Many will be listening for Fed forward guidance for Sept and also rest of 2022. But how accurate will this forward guidance be? The previous June guidance is 50bps but we all know it was hike up to 75bps instead during the last min after May CPI came out much worse just 1 week before June FOMC. As such, Fed did not follow through with their guidance and went ahead with a bigger hike. Maybe Powell should follow the example set by Lagarde of ECB. Last week, Lagarde ditched their guidance and went ahead with a 50bps hike. She then said ECB will not offer forward guidance of any kind and will make monetary policy decisions on a data-dependent basis, month by month. So will Fed follows ECB and decide not to offer guidance too? Fed guidance is not shown to be any accurate anyway. 

Going to be an exciting week with the big companies and big tech coming out with their earnings report. The earning and their future guidance will be able to give us hints on the growth or slowdown. Fed will be announcing their July hike, but more importantly, everyone will be focusing on Fed guidance for Sept and the rest of the 2022. July 75bps is almost a sure thing but the guidance for Sept and rest of 2022 will be a hint on how hawkish Fed will be. I believed this will be a crucial factor on the direction of the market for the rest of 2022. GDP for Q2 will also be announced on Thursday. If the earnings/guidance is not as bad as many predicted, and Fed start to show less hawkish stance with slower hike for rest of 2022, market sentiment will improve and we may see more rally

This week going to be interesting. Many big companies are releasing their results and they will heavily influence if the market can continue its climb. I felt market had generally priced in for 75bps hike so there should be no surprise there. GDP for Q2 might be negative but should also be generally priced in. The main drivers will be the big companies earnings and the forward guidance for Q3/Q4. Market resuming it's climb or going for the new bottom will depends on this week earnings. 

Many are afraid Fed might reverse too slowly and push the market into a deep dive. My thoughts is it is unlikely. Fed is more affected by political and other outside influence than Fed claimed to be otherwise. A good example will be Fed always used PCI as a guage as inflation since its a broader measurement. But why did it switch to CPI suddenly? Why did Fed suddenly changed the June hike to 75 bps? Biden chat with Powell, and the focus on CPI are definitely a factor for the changes. Also many are calling Fed bluff on its forecast of terminal rate and hike schedule. They are saying the terminal rate will not be as high as Fed claimed and Fed might reverse as early as early 2023. Some even said by end of 2022. Biden mid term election during Nov will put pressure on Fed and won't allow

Companies that depends on Ad revenue should see similar bad results. Not too surprising. During Q1, Ad revenue is already seeing a slowdown as companies are trying to cut cost to prepare for possible recession. Cost cutting measures had increased over the last few months with so many companies announcing job cuts and hiring freeze. But not all is doom and gloom. They will be the first few to bounce back when recovery is in sight. So make use of this chance to observe and shortlist the stronger companies. Buy quality, avoid meme/hype.

Sentiment is improving as the earnings mostly beat the expectations. It seems that the earnings are not as bad as they thought. As such, more buying and pushing up the market. What is rarely talk about is that due to the sharp rising, the short positions are also rushing in to buy, in order to reduce their positions and risk. This short covering helps to further push up the price. While there is a rally, this rally is coming from positive sentiment and short covering. Sentiment is a very fickle thing and can flip at a snap of a finger. If really tempted to buy and think this is a true reversal, one can always buy a small position to test it out. Do note the general macro environment remains unchanged (high inflation, high oil, more hikes and QT coming, recession risk, high risk events

FOMC will be on 26-27th July. One week before FOMC is the blackout period so there will be no news/update from any FOMC participants. As such, the main driver for the US market will be on the earning reports. Up to now, 48 companies (9%) had reported their earnings. More than 60% beat the estimate in term of revenue/EPS. Though the estimate is generally lower, having more companies beating the expectations will bring a more positive sentiment to the market. Many are now slightly more optimistic on the rest of the earning reports. As long as we do not have any big company coming out with disastrous earning report, or any black swan event (Nord Stream 1?), we should see a slow grind upwards. Hope the positive vibes will continue. As usual, safety first and have proper risk management in

Up to now, 6 banks had reported their earnings. 3 missed expectations, 3 exceeded expectations, but all are not that good if compared to last year. 2022 is not a good year for the banks and they had being falling since Jan. The market had sort of priced in the weak earnings from bank and remain calm up to now. The earning season had started and more companies reports will set the pace for the US market. For this week, 3 potential reports (Netflix 19th, Tesla 20th, Snap 21st) to look out for. If they missed the expectations by much, it might rock the market. As such, observe more, do less. It's not a good time to place our bets yet. No clear direction for the market and things may go south fast with just 1-2 very bad reports.

Expectations for 100bps dropped from 80% to 45% after both Fed officials commented. The market also welcome this. 100bps is not totally off the table though and with Canada central bank actually doing a 100bps few days ago, it set a precedent that Fed might just follow as well. Luckily the oil price had also come down during the last few days so the pressure on Fed to do 100bps is lesser. Else with the political pressure from Biden, Fed might give in and actually do 100bps. I believed the June 75bps instead of the planned 50bps is due to political pressure. Anyway, 2 more weeks to July FOMC, expecting a few more Fed officials to drop their hints. Let's see how it goes.

Depending on time horizon. Based on 3-6 months, I feel it's overvalued. Too many headwinds now. Poor market sentiment, lower sales projection due to lower consumer demand for electronic goods, strong dollar which put pressure on overseas sale revenue, rising raw material cost and supply chain disruption, etc. Based on horizon of 2-5 years, Apple can be considered as undervalued due to its new chip, rising revenue from its service, upcoming new projects, etc. Of course, things will be harder to predict when horizon become longer. So do your due diligence and make your bets accordingly. Remember to practice risk management and not go all in.