美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？

华尔街见闻2021-07-08

作者：周欣瑜周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。看点一、SRF是个什么工具？其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

allenkee2021
2021-07-09
allenkee2021
好
Youn7276
2021-07-09
Youn7276
閱！
- KeithHan:
  ?
- Jamesncm:
  ??
文仔虎
2021-07-08
文仔虎
，read

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1132708633?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-07-08 22:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1132708633","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储6月纪要：除了讨论缩减QE还要关注什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-07-08 22:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":null,"article_id":"1132708633","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132708633","pubTimestamp":1625754621,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Federal Reserve Minutes in June: What should we pay attention to besides discussing QE reduction?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaadb7e1161f18096430199765183648","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"作者：周欣瑜\n周四凌晨，美联储公布6月政策会议纪要。纪要中FOMC讨论了建立国内常设回购协议工具（SRF）和常设外国国际货币当局（FIMA）回购工具；经济展望中肯定了当前正在快速的扩张，也提到围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高；以及市场关注的，对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论。\n看点一、SRF是个什么工具？\n其中，常设 FIMA 回购工具类似于现有的临时 FIMA 回购工具。即外国央行可以美国国债向美联储换取流动性。这从去年3月底美元紧张之时已开始使用，主要用于缺乏美元流动性的新兴市场国家。\n而SRF被称为常备回购便利，即金融机构以固定利率通过与美联储的回购交易获得临时流动性，回购交易涉及其持有的符合公开市场操作条件的证券。\n该工具实际上在2019年7月作为降息的技术要件曾已经被讨论过。类似于超额准备金利率（IOER）一样，它是联邦基金利率目标的上限。而且从机制上来说，它上限的意义要比IOER更强硬。（因为如果大行流动性也紧张，超额准备金利率代表的上限就会失效。）\n那么我们不仅要思考一下，如果说美联储在讨论ON RRP（下限）的时候考虑的是负利率的压力，那么开始讨论SRF（上限）的时候考虑的是什么呢？可能有以下两方面：\n1、作为量化宽松退出过程中的管理工具，当联邦基金利率和其他货币市场利率出现异常上升时提供流动性。早些时候SRF被认为是重新包装的“量化宽松”，因为其也是为市场提供流动性。但是主导方和方式有很大不同，SRF 的发起方并非央行，而是金融机构，而且发起方式更为灵活。\n2、或激励银行将流动性资产组合的构成从准备金转向高质量证券。SRF是通过质押债券（主要是国债）换取流动性，SRF最低投标利率若偏低将有力于鼓励增持相关标的证券。\n看点二、围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高\n纪要表示，6月FOMC会议的美国经济预测强于4 月的预测。预计今年实际 GDP 增长将大幅增加，失业率相应迅速下降。对近期通胀前景进行了显着上修，但依然预计今年通胀的上升将是暂时的。但对一些方面也变得比较谨慎：\n1、“围绕经济前景的不确定性正在升高。”这主要是源于疫情的风险。\n2、“经济仍远未实现基础广泛且具有包容性的最大就业目标。”\n3、一些与会者认为，“供应链中断和劳动力短缺使评估委员会目标进展的任务变得复杂，而且这些因素消散的速度不确定。”\n4、“通胀预测风险倾向于上行。”\n整体基调来看，委员们认为当前劳动力市场的复苏情况并没有达到目标。提前退休、对病毒的担忧、育儿责任和失业保险福利扩大等因素依然是阻碍当前就业市场的重要因素。也有几位与会者强调，低利率正在助长房价上涨，房地产市场的估值压力可能构成金融稳定风险。\n看点三、对缩减资产购买计划进行了讨论\n纪要显示，与会者讨论了资产购买和实现进展。并没有明确退出时点，但比上期的初步讨论更多的讨论了退出内容。包括：\n1、委员普遍认为“进一步取得实质性进展”的标准尚未达到。但多位与会者提到鉴于即将到来的数据，预计开始放缓资产购买步伐的条件将比他们在之前的会议上预期的要早一些。\n2、重要的是要做好准备以在适当的情况下降低资产购买的步伐，以应对意外的经济发展，包括实现委员会目标的速度快于预期或出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险。\n3、不同的参与者就委员会的机构 MBS 购买提出了他们的看法。\n4、在接下来的会议上，与会者同意继续评估经济在实现目标方面的进展，并开始讨论调整资产购买路径和构成的计划。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":143114404,"gmtCreate":1625780843308,"gmtModify":1703748267614,"author":{"id":"3587017404679971","authorId":"3587017404679971","name":"allenkee2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ba711dfef3c288d5c7542b3c2088243","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3587017404679971","idStr":"3587017404679971"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143114404","repostId":1132708633,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":143137610,"gmtCreate":1625779351630,"gmtModify":1703748255454,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577393549070429","idStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"閱！","listText":"閱！","text":"閱！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143137610","repostId":1132708633,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5173492,"gmtCreate":1625840182397,"gmtModify":1663230763249,"authorId":3573373078542650,"author":{"id":3573373078542650,"idStr":"3573373078542650","authorId":3573373078542650,"name":"KeithHan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499148728d0c775136a5099e0d8769c0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":143137610,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"},{"id":5164818,"gmtCreate":1625780863400,"gmtModify":1663230724648,"authorId":3571120667520543,"author":{"id":3571120667520543,"idStr":"3571120667520543","authorId":3571120667520543,"name":"Jamesncm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50b5a8cecfd626276c69a9bcb639f30d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":143137610,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"??","text":"??","html":"??"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":143961589,"gmtCreate":1625756139441,"gmtModify":1703748010879,"author":{"id":"3586953489966141","authorId":"3586953489966141","name":"文仔虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dbc08160e63e8a7726db412206662c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3586953489966141","idStr":"3586953489966141"},"htmlText":"，read","listText":"，read","text":"，read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143961589","repostId":1132708633,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":64,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1132708633"}