Occidental Petroleum Stock Rallies Are Opportunities to Exit

investorplace2022-06-29

Occidental Petroleum(OXY) stock's theme has become too popular.Investors are blindly chasing a billionaire lead.The trade is to fade the rally from here, not continue to try harder.In the last two ...

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Comments

FFIE拿十年
2022-06-29
FFIE拿十年
🐶屁
Dan1192
2022-06-29
Dan1192
Perhaps one fact that can sway the whole argument. The biggest consumption of traditional fuel is not cars, but datacentres
hellodarz888
2022-06-29
hellodarz888
The sector itself is quite volatile too so its hard to gauge
runningjames
2022-06-29
runningjames
Agreed... blind chasing from 52 onwards
loychng
2022-06-29
loychng
Good analysis
SteadyDoesIt
2022-06-29
SteadyDoesIt
Remember that it fell quite a bit in the last two weeks. Very volatile

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This year, the oil trade has been extremely popular. And up until recently, it has been profitable for the bulls. But last week, their party suffered a serious setback. Occidental Petroleum(NYSE:OXY), for example, abruptly fell 25%.Today, I will answer the question if it is time to buy the dip in OXY stock. Spoiler alert; the answer is no. But this is nothing against the company itself. The rhetoric from the oil experts was too unanimous. As a result, expectations have risen to a near impossible level.TickerCompanyPriceOXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation$62.10The Buffet EffectEvery Sunday, I hold a weekly free webinar in which I review 150 charts by request. Over the last two weeks, the list had more oil stock questions than ever before. OXY is always at the top of the list, followed byExxon(NYSE:XOM) andChevron(NYSE:CVX). I can personally vouch for the quality of the latter two. And apparently, Mr. Warren Buffet’s team loves OXY stock. Regardless, my apprehension for owning the stock comes from the narrative.If it spikes, I am looking to re-short it, like I did in early June. There are warning signs of buyer exhaustion. I could not recently rally even on news thatMr. Buffet added to his position. Frankly, he is going against his mantra. Normally, he preaches being cautious when everyone is greedy. In this case, he is making everyone greedy because of his accumulation of it. The difference is that we cannot trade like a billionaire. His goal is not to profit from the stock price. He’s probably looking to own the company’s cash flow eventually.What is dangerous here is that not enough people are considering that the correction has just begun. There is a realistic technical scenario that places OXY stock near $45 per share. This would become a target if OXY stock falls below $54.30. The bulls will have a last chance effort at $51.70, but then it’s game over. The February rally was too violent and may have created a weak pocket that needs revisiting. I would not advise shorting it immediately. Wait until more ticks unfold this and next week.How I Will Trade OXY StockFrom a trading perspective, if OXY rekindles it upside trajectory, I would repurchase put options. That worked like a charm recently and it paid us seven times our investment. I have enough profits in pocket to brave another. I also did the same with XOM andUnited States Oil Fund(NYSEARCA:USO) stocks. The levels I would deem short-able are near $65, or even better near $70 per share.Once again, I’d like to point out that I don’t have much beef with the quality of the company. I’ve taken issue with the oil rhetoric, which was the cause for the immensely unreasonable rally. The OXY stock metrics are this good now only because of the higher commodity prices. This is not an explosion in production story. They last reported a huge$2.13 increase to income per share. However, production was only up 1.6% compared to last year’s. This is by definition a temporary situation, so it’s risky to assume it will persist.Experts would have us believe that demand for energy is exploding. But in reality,demand is still below pre-pandemic levels. In addition, all major car manufacturers have committed to killing fossil fuel projects. If that’s the case, then the demand curve is about to take a tumble. It’s not an opinion, but a mathematical fact. Add to this that environmental, social and governance investing is now crossing over from fad to global laws. Oil consumption is a dying theme, so rallies should be opportunities to exit stocks, not chase.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":683729952,"gmtCreate":1656512810480,"gmtModify":1676533281766,"author":{"id":"3577139034878958","authorId":"3577139034878958","name":"FFIE拿十年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec3543b4f6ce8da7a47634e4e6223c58","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577139034878958","authorIdStr":"3577139034878958"},"htmlText":"🐶屁","listText":"🐶屁","text":"🐶屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/683729952","repostId":1139905543,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9042405571,"gmtCreate":1656509734093,"gmtModify":1676535842444,"author":{"id":"3580519485452891","authorId":"3580519485452891","name":"Dan1192","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b81c29971d6ab7fd0c6f219b749f40ee","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3580519485452891","authorIdStr":"3580519485452891"},"htmlText":"Perhaps one fact&nbsp;that can sway the whole argument. The biggest consumption of traditional fuel is not cars, but datacentres","listText":"Perhaps one fact&nbsp;that can sway the whole argument. The biggest consumption of traditional fuel is not cars, but datacentres","text":"Perhaps one fact that can sway the whole argument. The biggest consumption of traditional fuel is not cars, but datacentres","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042405571","repostId":1139905543,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9042589324,"gmtCreate":1656498378868,"gmtModify":1676535840782,"author":{"id":"3583033675115574","authorId":"3583033675115574","name":"hellodarz888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e5f7fa39ea3c821aa8099f517287dcb","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3583033675115574","authorIdStr":"3583033675115574"},"htmlText":"The sector itself is quite volatile too so its hard to gauge","listText":"The sector itself is quite volatile too so its hard to gauge","text":"The sector itself is quite volatile too so its hard to gauge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042589324","repostId":1139905543,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9042514308,"gmtCreate":1656497729604,"gmtModify":1676535840718,"author":{"id":"4117336023184202","authorId":"4117336023184202","name":"runningjames","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3467c93ce8ec8c583f28f405e68f0c00","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4117336023184202","authorIdStr":"4117336023184202"},"htmlText":"Agreed... blind chasing from 52 onwards","listText":"Agreed... blind chasing from 52 onwards","text":"Agreed... blind chasing from 52 onwards","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042514308","repostId":1139905543,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9042536775,"gmtCreate":1656495669297,"gmtModify":1676535840423,"author":{"id":"3586055114434039","authorId":"3586055114434039","name":"loychng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb649759892edacaa4759c163304f09d","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586055114434039","authorIdStr":"3586055114434039"},"htmlText":"Good analysis","listText":"Good analysis","text":"Good analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042536775","repostId":1139905543,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9042594144,"gmtCreate":1656493895588,"gmtModify":1676535840253,"author":{"id":"4087620073091560","authorId":"4087620073091560","name":"SteadyDoesIt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab599edb0711e3b18e0dda8931ea8e4a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087620073091560","authorIdStr":"4087620073091560"},"htmlText":"Remember that it fell quite a bit in the last two weeks. &nbsp;Very volatile","listText":"Remember that it fell quite a bit in the last two weeks. &nbsp;Very volatile","text":"Remember that it fell quite a bit in the last two weeks. Very volatile","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9042594144","repostId":1139905543,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":79,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1139905543"}