Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last

The Wall Street Journal2021-08-02

Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find ...

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Comments

关耳火丙光军
2021-08-02
关耳火丙光军
Very optimistic. Well, go go go......!
KRIS0330
2021-08-02
KRIS0330
Getting tougher....
- PSFund:
  .
逢場作戲又一日
2021-08-02
逢場作戲又一日
Come come inflation
missychatty
2021-08-02
missychatty
Like
SARA_231
2021-08-02
SARA_231
First! Hope this is true!
- TeslaLegend:
  Nice

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As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated. Labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.\nThe trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.\nYet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.\nTake the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.\nTraders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.\nBreak-even inflation rate\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed\nIn another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.\nPut in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.\n“Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.\nWhile some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.\nRecent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.\nEconomists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.\nIn April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.\nInvestors, though, have hardly been rattled.\nCPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.\nUsed cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.\nOverall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.\nMarkets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.\nBetting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An ICE BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.\nHolders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.\n“Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.\nMs. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.\nSome investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.\nEven if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.\nLong-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.\nJust in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.\nStill, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.\n“Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":805266332,"gmtCreate":1627884560626,"gmtModify":1703497173117,"author":{"id":"3582251063635557","authorId":"3582251063635557","name":"关耳火丙光军","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7297dbb98183fa4daf629f4a49f6de07","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Very optimistic. Well, go go go......!","listText":"Very optimistic. Well, go go go......!","text":"Very optimistic. Well, go go go......!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805266332","repostId":1149048645,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805211877,"gmtCreate":1627882974499,"gmtModify":1703497139865,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Getting tougher....&nbsp;","listText":"Getting tougher....&nbsp;","text":"Getting tougher....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805211877","repostId":1149048645,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5400730,"gmtCreate":1627883534126,"gmtModify":1663231811653,"authorId":3581720614399200,"author":{"id":3581720614399200,"authorId":3581720614399200,"name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805211877,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":".","text":".","html":"."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805234560,"gmtCreate":1627882570150,"gmtModify":1703497133210,"author":{"id":"3555043402922696","authorId":"3555043402922696","name":"逢場作戲又一日","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6a5fbf2ceb7c7ee0399d41e6348dadf7","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Come come inflation&nbsp;","listText":"Come come inflation&nbsp;","text":"Come come inflation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805234560","repostId":1149048645,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805231230,"gmtCreate":1627882185620,"gmtModify":1703497125374,"author":{"id":"3560333139103013","authorId":"3560333139103013","name":"missychatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d75cdb42cbca99e3666b7b1796540245","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805231230","repostId":1149048645,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805239205,"gmtCreate":1627882057107,"gmtModify":1703497121865,"author":{"id":"3582880272972541","authorId":"3582880272972541","name":"SARA_231","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd8d92b2f3729a7b1cddcc2e989397cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"First! Hope this is true!","listText":"First! Hope this is true!","text":"First! Hope this is true!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805239205","repostId":1149048645,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5400612,"gmtCreate":1627882150835,"gmtModify":1663231812343,"authorId":3572489627147183,"author":{"id":3572489627147183,"authorId":3572489627147183,"name":"TeslaLegend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180ad6f06095bcbf2b6594d26c494752","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.28","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805239205,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":25,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1149048645"}