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2022-09-27
Tesla of course
Better Buy: Tesla Stock or the Entire Nasdaq?
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2022-09-26
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Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918581897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918883181,"gmtCreate":1664357173743,"gmtModify":1676537439683,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla 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Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911491046","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911493533,"gmtCreate":1664240500023,"gmtModify":1676537415901,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla of course","listText":"Tesla of course","text":"Tesla of course","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911493533","repostId":"2270287703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2270287703","pubTimestamp":1664205490,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2270287703?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-26 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Tesla Stock or the Entire Nasdaq?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2270287703","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"In a battle between one of America's favorite stocks and a currently out-of-favor index, which will wind up on top?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Few companies have quite the public following of electric-car company <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla </a>. Under the leadership of Elon Musk, its pioneering electric cars have changed the game so much that California has even set a future ban on the sale of gas-powered cars. Yet that world-changing innovation as brought with it the expectation of even more greatness to come, and that could present a problem for today's investors.</p><p>Tesla's recent $862.7 billion market capitalization is more than 12 times the company's trailing revenue and more than 90 times the company's trailing profit. That makes it still look pricey, even in today's generally downward-trending stock market.</p><p>This raises a key question for potential investors. Which is more important: Tesla's innovation or its valuation? In other words, if you're looking to invest in stocks as the market swoons, which looks like a better buy, Tesla or the entire <b>Nasdaq</b>?</p><h2>The case for Tesla</h2><p>According to data collected by InsideEVs, Tesla is still registering more all-electric cars than any other manufacturer, with more than 564,000 vehicles registered in the first half of 2022. In addition to its market share lead, Tesla expects that its investment in its Gigafactories will dramatically lower its costs when it comes to batteries. Since batteries are such an important component of both an electric car's cost and its range, that investment should help Tesla have a cost advantage over other manufacturers.</p><p>In addition, since Tesla has <i>always </i>been an all-electric vehicle manufacturer, it doesn't have the legacy costs and structures that traditional gas-powered-car companies have in place. Those structures were built up over decades to optimize for manufacturing gas-powered cars. While that helps with scale and efficiency, those same factors often get in the way of helping a company be more nimble and change with the times. That may hinder other car companies' ability to play catch-up with Tesla on electric cars.</p><p>A cost advantage on batteries plus a business model built from the ground up for electric vehicles certainly puts Tesla in a great spot as the world shifts to a higher proportion of electric cars.</p><h2>The case against Tesla</h2><p>Of course, Tesla faces challenges in the electric-vehicle space as well. First, it is losing its early mover advantage. While that InsideEVs report still had Tesla in the lead when it came to electric-vehicle registrations, it also indicated that Tesla's market share of EVs was 19% -- and shrinking. That means competition is getting a stronger foothold -- and gaining their <i>own </i>economies of scale to improve their ability to effectively operate in the electric car space.</p><p>Second, according to the JD Power Initial Quality Survey for 2022, Tesla's initial quality is below average in the automobile industry. It scored 226 problems per 100 vehicles, versus 180 problems per 100 vehicles for the typical car. In a world where electric cars are premium-priced to gas-powered ones to cover those battery costs, having below-average initial quality makes it tough to command a premium price. That'll be especially true as consumer choice continues to increase as competition intensifies.</p><p>Then, of course, there's Tesla's valuation. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, worldwide car sales were around 74.9 million units in 2019, up from an average around 71 million throughout the 2010s. Tesla's $862.7 billion market cap gives it a price tag of around $11,500 <i>per</i> <i>car sold by all manufacturers in 2019</i>, worldwide. To justify that kind of valuation, Tesla would need to become a dominant player across the entire industry, not just a fast mover (and one losing share) in just a segment of it.</p><p>Is it possible that Tesla could get there? Maybe, but its shares are trading as though that has already happened. As a result, I'm not sure where future shareholder returns would come from, even if the company does reach that pinnacle of success.</p><h2>What about the entire Nasdaq?</h2><p>On the flip side, the Nasdaq as a whole currently trades at about 22 times the trailing earnings of its constituent companies, thanks to a fairly substantial market decline in 2022. While a little higher than a value investor would like to see, it's not that far out of whack with its pre-pandemic trends .</p><p>In addition, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONEQ\">Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF </a>, which attempts to track the Nasdaq, offers investors a chance to buy the index for a reasonably low 0.21% expense ratio. That makes buying shares in the entire Nasdaq about as easy as buying shares in Tesla, without having to sacrifice a huge part of your overall potential return to overhead fees.</p><h2>Which is a better buy?</h2><p>At a lower valuation -- 22 times for the Nasdaq composite, versus 90 times earnings for Tesla -- the Nasdaq wins out as a better buy on valuation. When it comes to business prospects, Tesla clearly has room to grow as the electric-vehicle market does. With its stock price already reflecting the anticipated success from that growth, however, it's hard to justify paying the premium price over the overall index.</p><p>Overall, the decline in the overall market has opened up an opportunity to where the entire Nasdaq looks like a better buy at the moment than Tesla does. You get broader diversification by owning an index, a better value and, as a result, a higher likelihood of being rewarded from any business growth that may take place in the underlying companies.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Tesla Stock or the Entire Nasdaq?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Tesla Stock or the Entire Nasdaq?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-26 23:18 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/26/better-buy-tesla-stock-or-the-entire-nasdaq/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Few companies have quite the public following of electric-car company Tesla . Under the leadership of Elon Musk, its pioneering electric cars have changed the game so much that California has even set...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/26/better-buy-tesla-stock-or-the-entire-nasdaq/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ONEQ":"Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Index ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/26/better-buy-tesla-stock-or-the-entire-nasdaq/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2270287703","content_text":"Few companies have quite the public following of electric-car company Tesla . Under the leadership of Elon Musk, its pioneering electric cars have changed the game so much that California has even set a future ban on the sale of gas-powered cars. Yet that world-changing innovation as brought with it the expectation of even more greatness to come, and that could present a problem for today's investors.Tesla's recent $862.7 billion market capitalization is more than 12 times the company's trailing revenue and more than 90 times the company's trailing profit. That makes it still look pricey, even in today's generally downward-trending stock market.This raises a key question for potential investors. Which is more important: Tesla's innovation or its valuation? In other words, if you're looking to invest in stocks as the market swoons, which looks like a better buy, Tesla or the entire Nasdaq?The case for TeslaAccording to data collected by InsideEVs, Tesla is still registering more all-electric cars than any other manufacturer, with more than 564,000 vehicles registered in the first half of 2022. In addition to its market share lead, Tesla expects that its investment in its Gigafactories will dramatically lower its costs when it comes to batteries. Since batteries are such an important component of both an electric car's cost and its range, that investment should help Tesla have a cost advantage over other manufacturers.In addition, since Tesla has always been an all-electric vehicle manufacturer, it doesn't have the legacy costs and structures that traditional gas-powered-car companies have in place. Those structures were built up over decades to optimize for manufacturing gas-powered cars. While that helps with scale and efficiency, those same factors often get in the way of helping a company be more nimble and change with the times. That may hinder other car companies' ability to play catch-up with Tesla on electric cars.A cost advantage on batteries plus a business model built from the ground up for electric vehicles certainly puts Tesla in a great spot as the world shifts to a higher proportion of electric cars.The case against TeslaOf course, Tesla faces challenges in the electric-vehicle space as well. First, it is losing its early mover advantage. While that InsideEVs report still had Tesla in the lead when it came to electric-vehicle registrations, it also indicated that Tesla's market share of EVs was 19% -- and shrinking. That means competition is getting a stronger foothold -- and gaining their own economies of scale to improve their ability to effectively operate in the electric car space.Second, according to the JD Power Initial Quality Survey for 2022, Tesla's initial quality is below average in the automobile industry. It scored 226 problems per 100 vehicles, versus 180 problems per 100 vehicles for the typical car. In a world where electric cars are premium-priced to gas-powered ones to cover those battery costs, having below-average initial quality makes it tough to command a premium price. That'll be especially true as consumer choice continues to increase as competition intensifies.Then, of course, there's Tesla's valuation. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, worldwide car sales were around 74.9 million units in 2019, up from an average around 71 million throughout the 2010s. Tesla's $862.7 billion market cap gives it a price tag of around $11,500 per car sold by all manufacturers in 2019, worldwide. To justify that kind of valuation, Tesla would need to become a dominant player across the entire industry, not just a fast mover (and one losing share) in just a segment of it.Is it possible that Tesla could get there? Maybe, but its shares are trading as though that has already happened. As a result, I'm not sure where future shareholder returns would come from, even if the company does reach that pinnacle of success.What about the entire Nasdaq?On the flip side, the Nasdaq as a whole currently trades at about 22 times the trailing earnings of its constituent companies, thanks to a fairly substantial market decline in 2022. While a little higher than a value investor would like to see, it's not that far out of whack with its pre-pandemic trends .In addition, the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF , which attempts to track the Nasdaq, offers investors a chance to buy the index for a reasonably low 0.21% expense ratio. That makes buying shares in the entire Nasdaq about as easy as buying shares in Tesla, without having to sacrifice a huge part of your overall potential return to overhead fees.Which is a better buy?At a lower valuation -- 22 times for the Nasdaq composite, versus 90 times earnings for Tesla -- the Nasdaq wins out as a better buy on valuation. When it comes to business prospects, Tesla clearly has room to grow as the electric-vehicle market does. With its stock price already reflecting the anticipated success from that growth, however, it's hard to justify paying the premium price over the overall index.Overall, the decline in the overall market has opened up an opportunity to where the entire Nasdaq looks like a better buy at the moment than Tesla does. You get broader diversification by owning an index, a better value and, as a result, a higher likelihood of being rewarded from any business growth that may take place in the underlying companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911160953,"gmtCreate":1664156859773,"gmtModify":1676537398724,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911160953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913400506,"gmtCreate":1664032329706,"gmtModify":1676537381609,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913400506","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919284158,"gmtCreate":1663808325974,"gmtModify":1676537340052,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919284158","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919338619,"gmtCreate":1663727053131,"gmtModify":1676537324564,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919338619","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910357107,"gmtCreate":1663562890609,"gmtModify":1676537291399,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910357107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934174894,"gmtCreate":1663209732619,"gmtModify":1676537228495,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934174894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9079725136,"gmtCreate":1657243321825,"gmtModify":1676535977532,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Go long and hold $tsla","listText":"Go long and hold $tsla","text":"Go long and hold $tsla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9079725136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9082007229,"gmtCreate":1650500669312,"gmtModify":1676534738582,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lmao joke article. So lengthy yet so wrong","listText":"Lmao joke article. So lengthy yet so wrong","text":"Lmao joke article. So lengthy yet so wrong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9082007229","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105569285","pubTimestamp":1650468622,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105569285?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105569285","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</li><li>While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</li><li>The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.</li></ul><p>For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</p><p><b>End of the Road for Musk</b></p><p>Most investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.</p><p>The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.</p><p>Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.</p><p>We think that moment has come.</p><p><b>Musk Meets His Maker: Twitter</b></p><p>In our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.</p><p>The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.</p><p>As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.</p><p><b>Live by the Stunt, Die by the Stunt</b></p><p>Ultimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.</p><p>Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</p><p>Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.</p><p><b>Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?</b></p><p>Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:</p><ul><li>stock and cryptocurrency manipulation</li><li>false advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)</li><li>ignoring safety authorities</li><li>neglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s shares</li><li>and other claims of dubious veracity</li></ul><p><b>What Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?</b></p><p>Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.</p><p><b>Trouble on the Horizon</b></p><p>All the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.</p><p><b>Incumbents Are Catching Up:</b> Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.</p><p>The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.</p><p>Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start <i>selling</i> <i>cars</i>to make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.</p><p><b>Market Share Losses Continue:</b> Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.</p><p>Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.</p><p><b>Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV Sales</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4dd16dde86e1ab31f85bd8a2af4aee\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and Statista</p><p><b>Slow Start to 2022:</b>Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.</p><p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p><p>Despite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.</p><p>Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.</p><p>To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.</p><p>Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p><ul><li>15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)</li><li>7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])</li><li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)</li></ul><p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):</p><ul><li>57% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>64% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>83% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p>If we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p><ul><li>31% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>35% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>45% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p><b>Figure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/Share</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad84793f241565c81ebb0d29b01242c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><b>Tesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make Money</b></p><p>Below are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.</p><p>Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:</p><ul><li>immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) and</li><li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</li></ul><p>In this scenario, Tesla generates <i>$811 billion</i> in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.</p><p>This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p><p>If we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 14% and</li><li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p><p>If we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) and</li><li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 and</li><li>revenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.</p><p>In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</p><p>We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.</p><p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e43f865637ac4c84e8199df2b05d061\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.</p><p>An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.</p><p>In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p><p><b>Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to Fall</b></p><p>Other meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.</p><p>AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.</p><p>Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.</p><p><b>Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTM</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add55782c8e6b0e8a891f84c9ec7421f\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"119\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><i>This article originally published on April 14, 2022.</i></p><p><i>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.</i></p><p>[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries</p><p>[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The End Near For Musk And Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 23:30 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105569285","content_text":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.End of the Road for MuskMost investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.We think that moment has come.Musk Meets His Maker: TwitterIn our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.Live by the Stunt, Die by the StuntUltimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:stock and cryptocurrency manipulationfalse advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)ignoring safety authoritiesneglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s sharesand other claims of dubious veracityWhat Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.Trouble on the HorizonAll the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.Incumbents Are Catching Up: Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start selling carsto make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.Market Share Losses Continue: Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV SalesTSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and StatistaSlow Start to 2022:Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV MarketDespite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):57% for 15 million vehicles64% for 17 million vehicles83% for 21 million vehiclesIf we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:31% for 15 million vehicles35% for 17 million vehicles45% for 21 million vehiclesFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/ShareTSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsTesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make MoneyBelow are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) andgrow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.In this scenario, Tesla generates $811 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About SalesIf we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:NOPAT margin improves to 14% andrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, thenthe stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic MarginsIf we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) andrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 andrevenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, thenthe stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation ScenariosTSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to FallOther meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTMMeme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsThis article originally published on April 14, 2022.Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9021789507,"gmtCreate":1653102019509,"gmtModify":1676535224960,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buying","listText":"Buying","text":"Buying","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9021789507","repostId":"2236012808","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2236012808","pubTimestamp":1653089869,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2236012808?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-21 07:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It's Down Almost 40% Year to Date -- Should Investors Buy Tesla Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236012808","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"As the broader market continues to fall, some investors may view the EV leader's stock slump as a buying opportunity. Are they right?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>After joining the $1 trillion market capitalization club at the end of 2021, shares of electric vehicle (EV) juggernaut <b>Tesla</b> have shifted into reverse. Between macroeconomic headwinds like 40-year-high inflation, the Fed's consequent move to raise interest rates, and concerns about the war between Russia and Ukraine, the stock market has been in quite the frenzy.</p><p>Many high-growth stocks, Tesla included, have been humbled lately as investors seek protection by shifting their attention to value companies and safer assets. CEO Elon Musk's move to potentially acquire <b>Twitter</b> certainly hasn't aided the company's case, either. With uncertainty around whether or not the deal will actually close, investors have raced to dump shares of the EV leader.</p><p>But in terms of fundamentals, Tesla continues to look dominant. The company is rapidly expanding its business on all fronts and has strengthened its balance sheet and cash generation in the process. With the stock down almost 40% year to date, should investors pull the trigger on buying Tesla today?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecb47944e9c0966d2182e999d9a81cba\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Fundamentals aren't the problem</h2><p>In a quarter when investors weren't sure what to expect due to COVID-19-related shutdowns at Tesla's Shanghai factory, the EV leader delivered, and it delivered big. The company's $18.8 billion in total sales, which climbed 81% year over year, beat Wall Street expectations by $918 million. Likewise, its non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.22, equal to 246% growth, crushed consensus estimates by a whopping 42%.</p><p>To top off a record quarter, the Musk-led enterprise grew total production and vehicle deliveries by a respective 69% and 68%, producing 305,407 vehicles and delivering 310,048. Per management's guidance, investors can expect the company to achieve 50% average annual growth in deliveries over a multi-year time horizon. In fiscal 2022, analysts are modeling a top line and adjusted bottom line of $86.5 billion and $12.32/share, translating to robust year-over-year ascents of 61% and 82%, respectively.</p><p>Amid such incredible growth, the company's balance sheet and cash generation are equally thriving. In its latest quarter, the EV commander revealed that total debt excluding vehicle and energy product financing fell below $100 million. The company is manifesting the "cash is king" mantra as well: In the first quarter, free cash flow surged an astonishing 660% to $2.2 billion. Provided that the global EV market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% through 2028 to nearly $1 trillion, it could be said with exceedingly high confidence that Tesla is poised for more success in the coming years.</p><h2>Tesla's valuation is still high</h2><p>Even without context, though, Tesla's valuation is extremely high. The stock is trading at 98.2 times earnings at the moment, an extremely lofty multiple even post-correction.</p><p>Comparing the EV behemoth to other automobile manufacturers further underscores its expensive stock price. As seen in the below chart, competitors <b>General Motors </b>(GM 0.81%), <b>Ford</b> (F 0.55%), and <b>Toyota </b>(TM 0.26%) have price-to-earnings multiples of 6.2, 4.6, and 7.9, respectively. Whether or not Tesla deserves a premium valuation is a frequent debate among the bulls and the bears. However, it's rather indisputable that the EV stock is richly priced. It would take a major share price collapse for Tesla to truly be considered cheap.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4664e23d164238b9ae09f5957b8e89b9\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TSLA PE Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Should investors buy the stock now?</h2><p>Tesla's pullback has certainly grabbed my attention -- the company is the unequivocal pacesetter in the EV market, an industry that is still in the earlier innings of development. That said, the company's valuation isn't exactly attractive yet, and it would take far more downward pressure to make the stock appear cheap. Investors should keep a close eye on Tesla moving forward, as there's surely a chance it'll continue on a downward path in the periods ahead.</p><p>While it's a fantastic company and a sure winner in the EV space, I don't suggest buying the stock just yet. Take advantage of the recent tech sell-off and look for other companies that carry more enticing valuations today.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It's Down Almost 40% Year to Date -- Should Investors Buy Tesla Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt's Down Almost 40% Year to Date -- Should Investors Buy Tesla Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-21 07:37 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/its-down-almost-40-year-to-date-should-investors-b/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After joining the $1 trillion market capitalization club at the end of 2021, shares of electric vehicle (EV) juggernaut Tesla have shifted into reverse. Between macroeconomic headwinds like 40-year-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/its-down-almost-40-year-to-date-should-investors-b/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/20/its-down-almost-40-year-to-date-should-investors-b/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236012808","content_text":"After joining the $1 trillion market capitalization club at the end of 2021, shares of electric vehicle (EV) juggernaut Tesla have shifted into reverse. Between macroeconomic headwinds like 40-year-high inflation, the Fed's consequent move to raise interest rates, and concerns about the war between Russia and Ukraine, the stock market has been in quite the frenzy.Many high-growth stocks, Tesla included, have been humbled lately as investors seek protection by shifting their attention to value companies and safer assets. CEO Elon Musk's move to potentially acquire Twitter certainly hasn't aided the company's case, either. With uncertainty around whether or not the deal will actually close, investors have raced to dump shares of the EV leader.But in terms of fundamentals, Tesla continues to look dominant. The company is rapidly expanding its business on all fronts and has strengthened its balance sheet and cash generation in the process. With the stock down almost 40% year to date, should investors pull the trigger on buying Tesla today?Image source: Getty Images.Fundamentals aren't the problemIn a quarter when investors weren't sure what to expect due to COVID-19-related shutdowns at Tesla's Shanghai factory, the EV leader delivered, and it delivered big. The company's $18.8 billion in total sales, which climbed 81% year over year, beat Wall Street expectations by $918 million. Likewise, its non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.22, equal to 246% growth, crushed consensus estimates by a whopping 42%.To top off a record quarter, the Musk-led enterprise grew total production and vehicle deliveries by a respective 69% and 68%, producing 305,407 vehicles and delivering 310,048. Per management's guidance, investors can expect the company to achieve 50% average annual growth in deliveries over a multi-year time horizon. In fiscal 2022, analysts are modeling a top line and adjusted bottom line of $86.5 billion and $12.32/share, translating to robust year-over-year ascents of 61% and 82%, respectively.Amid such incredible growth, the company's balance sheet and cash generation are equally thriving. In its latest quarter, the EV commander revealed that total debt excluding vehicle and energy product financing fell below $100 million. The company is manifesting the \"cash is king\" mantra as well: In the first quarter, free cash flow surged an astonishing 660% to $2.2 billion. Provided that the global EV market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% through 2028 to nearly $1 trillion, it could be said with exceedingly high confidence that Tesla is poised for more success in the coming years.Tesla's valuation is still highEven without context, though, Tesla's valuation is extremely high. The stock is trading at 98.2 times earnings at the moment, an extremely lofty multiple even post-correction.Comparing the EV behemoth to other automobile manufacturers further underscores its expensive stock price. As seen in the below chart, competitors General Motors (GM 0.81%), Ford (F 0.55%), and Toyota (TM 0.26%) have price-to-earnings multiples of 6.2, 4.6, and 7.9, respectively. Whether or not Tesla deserves a premium valuation is a frequent debate among the bulls and the bears. However, it's rather indisputable that the EV stock is richly priced. It would take a major share price collapse for Tesla to truly be considered cheap.TSLA PE Ratio data by YChartsShould investors buy the stock now?Tesla's pullback has certainly grabbed my attention -- the company is the unequivocal pacesetter in the EV market, an industry that is still in the earlier innings of development. That said, the company's valuation isn't exactly attractive yet, and it would take far more downward pressure to make the stock appear cheap. Investors should keep a close eye on Tesla moving forward, as there's surely a chance it'll continue on a downward path in the periods ahead.While it's a fantastic company and a sure winner in the EV space, I don't suggest buying the stock just yet. Take advantage of the recent tech sell-off and look for other companies that carry more enticing valuations today.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"before you look back 2 years later and regret :)","text":"before you look back 2 years later and regret :)","html":"before you look back 2 years later and regret :)"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9999007221,"gmtCreate":1660437800865,"gmtModify":1676533469166,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What shallow analysis","listText":"What shallow analysis","text":"What shallow analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9999007221","repostId":"1157910275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157910275","pubTimestamp":1660318322,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157910275?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-12 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Past Its Sell-By Date!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157910275","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryElon Musk recently repeated his claims that Tesla could be making 20 million cars per year by 2030. That would give Tesla 75% of the entire world EV market!To achieve that requires several more huge factories to be built that are not yet past the initial planning stages nor even a decision made where they will be located!","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Elon Musk recently repeated his claims that Tesla could be making 20 million cars per year by 2030. That would give Tesla 75% of the entire world EV market!</li><li>To achieve that requires several more huge factories to be built that are not yet past the initial planning stages nor even a decision made where they will be located!</li><li>They will require vast sums of money as might many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.</li><li>My share price target is around $100 by year-end. Some are more optimistic, with Citi giving Tesla a sell-rated forecast of $375 → $424. JP Morgan suggests $385. The price, as I write, is $864.</li><li>Some have suggested a price of $1580, which should frighten any cautious investor away.</li></ul><p><b>Those wing doors will not get that Tesla off the ground,</b> and new action against Elon Musk's autopilot claims might even stop them being driven manually by man - including Musk - in some places. An earlier action against Musk by the SEC resulted in him giving up his driving position as both Chairman and CEO.</p><p>In my first article on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) on 16 November, 2021, titled Tesla's Ticking Time Bomb, I strongly advised selling Tesla. The price then was $1,054.73, so it is down 18%, somewhat more than the S&P500's 12% decline. On the first of that same month, the price was $1,209.</p><p>TSLA hit a low of $626 on 24 May, 2022, suggesting many are having doubts, with the recent bounce perhaps being caused by believers in that sky-high $1580 forecast. To those I would recommend they check the past and see that the price had never gone above $100 until the beginning of last year, the price level I believe it will return to. It is down 27% YTD en route to that price.</p><p>This shall probably be my last article on Tesla, as I prefer to write on companies that will gain from world developments, and those do not benefit Tesla in the way they did in the past. That should have a significant negative effect on Tesla's future performance in both the car and stock markets, and I hope this article will be of value to those holding or considering buying into Tesla now. I would emphasize here that I am not a short seller or a trader. Tesla may well suit those that are, but it does not suit me. I am an investor and I write with only that in mind.</p><p>I will first touch on Tesla the car (and solar panel) maker and expand on the challenges it faces later.</p><p><b>Tesla The Car Maker</b></p><p>Tesla was founded by a visionary named Elon Musk. He saw an opportunity in electric cars, EVs, when other carmakers - and especially the U.S. and German manufacturers - were mostly focused on traditional internal combustion engines, ICEs.</p><p>He gained an almost cult-like following among retail investors and used the resultant share price explosion to raise over $13 billion in four stock offerings. Car-making is a capital-intensive industry, and such low capital costs gave it an advantage to get off the ground and into the big league.</p><p>Tesla also had <i>good profit margins</i>. Being a newcomer to car manufacturing, Tesla did not have legacy car maker problems such as restrictive unions and large company bureaucracies to add cost, plus EVs require many fewer components than ICEs. That makes Tesla's profit margins better - gross margins were 23% in fiscal 2020, compared with Ford's (F) 10%. <i>That gap is closing.</i> Tesla's superior margins over other carmakers are used by many believers to justify its high valuation, but - while they are good compared with many - they are not sufficiently better than the world's largest carmaker Toyota (TM,OTCPK:TOYOF) to do make the difference so extreme.</p><p><b>Toyota's P/E is 10.9. Tesla's P/E is 103.77 - nearly 10 times Toyota's!</b></p><p><b>Toyota's market cap $260bn. Tesla's $967bn - nearly 4 times Toyota's!</b></p><p>The latest gross margin ("GM") figures show this:</p><p>Tesla's GM: 28%. Net: 10.5%. Ops: 14.6%</p><p>Toyota's GM: 18%. Net: 8.5%. Ops: 8%</p><p>That GM gap will close when Toyota (and other ICE makers) build more EVs because of the hugely lower amount of materials needed to build EV motors than ICEs, so either TM's P/E should shoot up or TSLA's crash down.</p><p>The latest results from Tesla's website were good, but the Gross Margin is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d5fce89f9eada41780cfacd8d123c95\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bed17678a34727ef88451b33fd78453a\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e9b6e7adf9f631f7442c6692bd0a231\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Tesla.</p><p>If more financial information is required, it can be found here onTesla's website.</p><p><b>Cash and cash equivalents</b> are good, but billions will be needed to build the additional giant factories required, as might the many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.</p><p>I will now move on to those...</p><p>Problems - Internal <b>Self-Inflicted</b></p><p><b>There are many self-inflicted problems,</b> and many have yet to be resolved. The latest are claims by California's DMV that Tesla overstated its autopilot capabilities. ThisReutersarticle tells more about that. California is Tesla's largest U.S. market. The company sold 121,000 vehicles there in 2021, out of an estimated 352,000 sold nationwide. The DMV is seeking remedies that could include <b>suspending Tesla's license to sell vehicles in California</b> and requiring the company to make restitution to drivers.</p><p>Wikipedia has this list of <b>lawsuits</b> against Tesla.I know of no other reputable company that has stirred up so much controversy. The "autopilot" - the word used by Elon Musk to describe Tesla's driver assistance technology - fatality case could prove to be fatal or near-fatal for the whole company. Autoblog tells us more on that.</p><p>Currently, in a car accident in the U.S., the driver of one car sues the driver of the other car. It is only very seldom the car manufacturer is sued. For self-driving cars, however, things are likely to be different. There aren't other drivers to sue. There is just the car - and the company that made it. It won't take long for plaintiffs' lawyers to start filing big lawsuits, even class actions, against the car and technology companies that made the cars and designed the self-driving technology. And, as we have seen in other such situations, <b>there could soon be billion-dollar judgments against Tesla.</b></p><p><b>Recall and Warranty costs.</b> In 2021, Tesla recalled 475,000 vehicles for safety issues in the U.S. alone. Barron's recently reported that, since January, 2022, Tesla has issued four recalls for almost 1.5 million vehicles worldwide, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. That's roughly four times the 360,000 cars that Tesla delivered in the U.S. in 2021, and a half-million more, at least, than the 936,000 delivered worldwide. Global deliveries rose about 87%, compared with 2020. Those problems have to be fixed free of charge, plus many other problems require fixing under warranty.</p><p>They all require the vehicle to be returned to a dealer to be fixed. They <b>are a nuisance for the owners and costly for Tesla shareholders.</b></p><p><b>Musk's Antics.</b> I borrowed the word antic from Al Jazeera's report headed "Musk's antics turn Tesla owners, new buyers against it."</p><p>Another antic was buying into <b>solar panels</b>. This is a U.S.-only market for Tesla. He got into solar by buying a troubled company founded by his cousins and on whose board he sat. That was paid for with Tesla shareholders' money and led to a failed lawsuit by them, according to this Business Insider report. Its policy has been to offer <b>lowest price guarantees, which is suicidal</b> in such a commodity product market sector and - to reduce costs in the U.S. further - President Biden has waived tariffs on solar panels imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. A CNET report also claims that "Tesla is skimping on customer service."This activity will be a constant drain on Tesla profits until closed!</p><p><b>Share sales.</b> <b>Musk's latest antic is to sell more Tesla shares</b> purportedly to prepare any payment he may have to pay for his Twitter bid. One has to question why did he sell now if he has confidence the stock price will be higher when the outcome of that case against him is known?! This SA News report headed "Elon Musk backtracks on stock pledge" tells more, including "he now owns just under 15% of Tesla." One day he may be a total high-price dropout!</p><p><b>Musk's Aims.</b> As a visionary, he has achieved near miracles to get Tesla where it is today. However, it will need another miracle in the near future if 20 million cars are to be made, and even aiming for them could put Tesla into reverse gear financially. At Tesla's recent Cyber Round Up in Austin, Texas, Musk said the company would "end up building at least 10 or 12 Gigafactories." Those <b>Gigafactories cost Gigabucks to build.</b> They also require years to build, and he needs them soon if he is to make <b>20 million cars per year by2030.</b> That means completion before the end of 2029 - just over 7 years away. None have been started, nor even have locations been announced!</p><p>In the unlikely event Tesla achieved that number, it would require another miracle to sell that many cars, because gaining 16.4% of the entire world car market - including ICEs - is probably impossible for any car maker.GlobeNewswiremade the 2030 estimate of total car market size in 2030 of 122.83 million units that I used to calculate that market share percentage. It makes worthwhile reading.</p><p>It also looks rather stupid ifS&P Global's estimate of 26.8 million EV sales by 2030 proves correct. That would mean <b>Tesla has to achieve 75% EV market share!</b></p><p>Toyota is the world's largest carmaker and manufactures around 10 million cars per year. It has around 10% of the world market. It makes ICEs, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery EVs, and hydrogen cars. Tesla only makes battery EVs.</p><p>It therefore takes a bit of a stretch of the imagination to see Tesla selling 20 million cars per year by 2030... if it can make them!</p><p><b>Problems - External</b></p><p><b>Lithium supplies.</b> The Financial Times recently published this article headed "Electric-car makers warned lithium supply crunch is set to last until 2030."</p><p><b>Political and economic.</b> The new <b>Inflation Reduction Act</b> could have a perverse and unintended negative result for Tesla. The $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit will be renewed in January of 2023 and last until the end of 2032. A striking new requirement is that qualifying cars must be assembled in North America and that materials and critical minerals in the battery must come from the U.S. or a country with a free trade agreement with the U.S. That means some electric vehicles sold in the U.S. will be ineligible as soon as the bill takes effect. Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited ("CATL"), who make some batteries for Tesla, has dropped plans to make them in the U.S.</p><p><b>Political backlashes.</b> Elon Musk has probably made some <b>enemies</b> at the political top<b>in California</b>due to his personal move, and Tesla's HQ, from there to Texas. They may encourage a harsh judgement in DMV's autopilot case against Tesla that I mentioned above.</p><p>Tesla may yet face other challenges due to his behavior <b>in Germany.</b> That country is full of bureaucracies, some of which wanted to prevent the car and battery factory near Berlin from being built in the first place. Also, local residents and environmentalists - including Green party politicians - did not want their environmentally and visually valuable forest torn down, as this report shows. Elon Musk apparently barged through those bureaucratic regulations and local and environmental objections and started building without proper approvals. The battery factory has still not been started. Their unanswered environmental problems remain. This CNBC article tells more.</p><p><b>The UK is in or near recession,</b> as are several EU continues. They include important German, UK, French, and Italian car makers, all of which have poured billions into making EVs.</p><p>That brings me to another major problem for Tesla...</p><p><b>Competition</b></p><p>-<b>Loss of a previously exclusive big Tesla buyer.</b> EV subscription company <b>Autonomy has placed an order for 23,000 EVs</b> with 17 global automakers to expand and diversify its subscription fleet beyond just Tesla vehicles. Autonomy currently has 1,000 cars, all of which are Tesla models. The fleet order valued at $1.2B includes EVs from BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Canoo (GOEV), Fisker (FSR), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), Lucid Group (LCID), Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:DDAIF), Polestar (PSNY), Rivian (RIVN), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor, VinFast, Volvo Car (OTCPK:VLVOF), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF).</p><p>-<b>Others lead the autopilot race.</b> Tesla's autopilot faces costly attacks and is anyway losing the race to others, as this chart shows</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28c1c01bae4366c47e659b1d8e789f69\" tg-width=\"349\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>inverse.com</p><p>Waymo leads with Baidu not far behind...</p><p>-<b>Chinese tech giant, Baidu</b>(BIDU) has securedthe first permits in China to offer commercial <b>fully driverless</b> robotaxi services to the public on open roads.</p><p>Wei Dong, vice president and chief safety operation officer of Baidu's Intelligent Driving Group, said in a statement:</p><blockquote>"We believe these permits are a key milestone on the path to the inflection point when the industry can finally roll out fully autonomous driving services at scale."</blockquote><p>Baidu will sell its technology to other car makers helping those leapfrog over Tesla.</p><p>It will also make cars having unveiled the Apollo RT6 - photo above - an EV ready for production with aninitial starting price of $37,000. Jidu Auto, which is a joint venture between Baidu and Geely Automobile Holdings (OTCPK:GELYY) is looking at raising between $300M and $400M as it seeks to launch its first commercial vehicle in 2023.</p><p>- Apple (AAPL) may have this fully autonomous EVon the road by 2025. Rumors suggest it will be made by Hyundai. If so, maybe their worldwide dealer network will sell and service it.</p><p>Apple reportedly poacheda top executive from Italian luxury carmaker Lamborghini for its car project.</p><p>- China's <b>BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF,OTCPK:BYDDY) sold 641,350</b> EVs in the first six months of 2022, representing a 315% increase from the same period last year. Tesla, on the other hand, delivered a total of 564,743 vehicles in H1.</p><p>- Century-old car makers are determined to be around for another century! Every major maker is spending billions on EVs. A JV between Stellantis (STLA) and Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) is building a $2.5 billion battery factory in Indiana. General Motors is spending $7bn to convert an existing factory to make EVs. That shows <b>another advantage traditional car makers have overTesla.</b>It costs less to convert an existing plant to make EVs than to build a new one from scratch, plus they have an established workforce and customer base.</p><p>A report on SA tells us that GM's all-electric Hummer draws rave review from Barron's.</p><p>Ford is spending $11 billion on plants in Tennessee and Kentucky, and plans to build 600,000 EVs by the end of next year.</p><p>European companies are likewise spending huge sums at home and in the U.S. to build EVs and battery factories.</p><p>Putting all those above points into one big picture and I conclude that...</p><p><b>Tesla Is Beyond Its Sell-By Date</b></p><p>I mentioned Elon Musk's sales above. He is not the only insider to have been selling; Robyn Denholm - Chairman of the Board - was a huge seller in May and June this year. From the Financial Times, the last time I could find news of insiders buying - including a tiny buy by Elon Musk - was in February 2020:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcb151636a2cf9f820f10fcff805c44\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Source: Financial Times</p><p><b>If Insiders are big sellers - and none buy - why should outsiders do otherwise?!</b></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Past Its Sell-By Date!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Past Its Sell-By Date!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-12 23:32 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533191-tesla-is-past-its-sell-by-date><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryElon Musk recently repeated his claims that Tesla could be making 20 million cars per year by 2030. That would give Tesla 75% of the entire world EV market!To achieve that requires several more...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533191-tesla-is-past-its-sell-by-date\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4533191-tesla-is-past-its-sell-by-date","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157910275","content_text":"SummaryElon Musk recently repeated his claims that Tesla could be making 20 million cars per year by 2030. That would give Tesla 75% of the entire world EV market!To achieve that requires several more huge factories to be built that are not yet past the initial planning stages nor even a decision made where they will be located!They will require vast sums of money as might many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.My share price target is around $100 by year-end. Some are more optimistic, with Citi giving Tesla a sell-rated forecast of $375 → $424. JP Morgan suggests $385. The price, as I write, is $864.Some have suggested a price of $1580, which should frighten any cautious investor away.Those wing doors will not get that Tesla off the ground, and new action against Elon Musk's autopilot claims might even stop them being driven manually by man - including Musk - in some places. An earlier action against Musk by the SEC resulted in him giving up his driving position as both Chairman and CEO.In my first article on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) on 16 November, 2021, titled Tesla's Ticking Time Bomb, I strongly advised selling Tesla. The price then was $1,054.73, so it is down 18%, somewhat more than the S&P500's 12% decline. On the first of that same month, the price was $1,209.TSLA hit a low of $626 on 24 May, 2022, suggesting many are having doubts, with the recent bounce perhaps being caused by believers in that sky-high $1580 forecast. To those I would recommend they check the past and see that the price had never gone above $100 until the beginning of last year, the price level I believe it will return to. It is down 27% YTD en route to that price.This shall probably be my last article on Tesla, as I prefer to write on companies that will gain from world developments, and those do not benefit Tesla in the way they did in the past. That should have a significant negative effect on Tesla's future performance in both the car and stock markets, and I hope this article will be of value to those holding or considering buying into Tesla now. I would emphasize here that I am not a short seller or a trader. Tesla may well suit those that are, but it does not suit me. I am an investor and I write with only that in mind.I will first touch on Tesla the car (and solar panel) maker and expand on the challenges it faces later.Tesla The Car MakerTesla was founded by a visionary named Elon Musk. He saw an opportunity in electric cars, EVs, when other carmakers - and especially the U.S. and German manufacturers - were mostly focused on traditional internal combustion engines, ICEs.He gained an almost cult-like following among retail investors and used the resultant share price explosion to raise over $13 billion in four stock offerings. Car-making is a capital-intensive industry, and such low capital costs gave it an advantage to get off the ground and into the big league.Tesla also had good profit margins. Being a newcomer to car manufacturing, Tesla did not have legacy car maker problems such as restrictive unions and large company bureaucracies to add cost, plus EVs require many fewer components than ICEs. That makes Tesla's profit margins better - gross margins were 23% in fiscal 2020, compared with Ford's (F) 10%. That gap is closing. Tesla's superior margins over other carmakers are used by many believers to justify its high valuation, but - while they are good compared with many - they are not sufficiently better than the world's largest carmaker Toyota (TM,OTCPK:TOYOF) to do make the difference so extreme.Toyota's P/E is 10.9. Tesla's P/E is 103.77 - nearly 10 times Toyota's!Toyota's market cap $260bn. Tesla's $967bn - nearly 4 times Toyota's!The latest gross margin (\"GM\") figures show this:Tesla's GM: 28%. Net: 10.5%. Ops: 14.6%Toyota's GM: 18%. Net: 8.5%. Ops: 8%That GM gap will close when Toyota (and other ICE makers) build more EVs because of the hugely lower amount of materials needed to build EV motors than ICEs, so either TM's P/E should shoot up or TSLA's crash down.The latest results from Tesla's website were good, but the Gross Margin is declining.Source: Tesla.If more financial information is required, it can be found here onTesla's website.Cash and cash equivalents are good, but billions will be needed to build the additional giant factories required, as might the many existing problems that remain unresolved with new ones still emerging.I will now move on to those...Problems - Internal Self-InflictedThere are many self-inflicted problems, and many have yet to be resolved. The latest are claims by California's DMV that Tesla overstated its autopilot capabilities. ThisReutersarticle tells more about that. California is Tesla's largest U.S. market. The company sold 121,000 vehicles there in 2021, out of an estimated 352,000 sold nationwide. The DMV is seeking remedies that could include suspending Tesla's license to sell vehicles in California and requiring the company to make restitution to drivers.Wikipedia has this list of lawsuits against Tesla.I know of no other reputable company that has stirred up so much controversy. The \"autopilot\" - the word used by Elon Musk to describe Tesla's driver assistance technology - fatality case could prove to be fatal or near-fatal for the whole company. Autoblog tells us more on that.Currently, in a car accident in the U.S., the driver of one car sues the driver of the other car. It is only very seldom the car manufacturer is sued. For self-driving cars, however, things are likely to be different. There aren't other drivers to sue. There is just the car - and the company that made it. It won't take long for plaintiffs' lawyers to start filing big lawsuits, even class actions, against the car and technology companies that made the cars and designed the self-driving technology. And, as we have seen in other such situations, there could soon be billion-dollar judgments against Tesla.Recall and Warranty costs. In 2021, Tesla recalled 475,000 vehicles for safety issues in the U.S. alone. Barron's recently reported that, since January, 2022, Tesla has issued four recalls for almost 1.5 million vehicles worldwide, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. That's roughly four times the 360,000 cars that Tesla delivered in the U.S. in 2021, and a half-million more, at least, than the 936,000 delivered worldwide. Global deliveries rose about 87%, compared with 2020. Those problems have to be fixed free of charge, plus many other problems require fixing under warranty.They all require the vehicle to be returned to a dealer to be fixed. They are a nuisance for the owners and costly for Tesla shareholders.Musk's Antics. I borrowed the word antic from Al Jazeera's report headed \"Musk's antics turn Tesla owners, new buyers against it.\"Another antic was buying into solar panels. This is a U.S.-only market for Tesla. He got into solar by buying a troubled company founded by his cousins and on whose board he sat. That was paid for with Tesla shareholders' money and led to a failed lawsuit by them, according to this Business Insider report. Its policy has been to offer lowest price guarantees, which is suicidal in such a commodity product market sector and - to reduce costs in the U.S. further - President Biden has waived tariffs on solar panels imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. A CNET report also claims that \"Tesla is skimping on customer service.\"This activity will be a constant drain on Tesla profits until closed!Share sales. Musk's latest antic is to sell more Tesla shares purportedly to prepare any payment he may have to pay for his Twitter bid. One has to question why did he sell now if he has confidence the stock price will be higher when the outcome of that case against him is known?! This SA News report headed \"Elon Musk backtracks on stock pledge\" tells more, including \"he now owns just under 15% of Tesla.\" One day he may be a total high-price dropout!Musk's Aims. As a visionary, he has achieved near miracles to get Tesla where it is today. However, it will need another miracle in the near future if 20 million cars are to be made, and even aiming for them could put Tesla into reverse gear financially. At Tesla's recent Cyber Round Up in Austin, Texas, Musk said the company would \"end up building at least 10 or 12 Gigafactories.\" Those Gigafactories cost Gigabucks to build. They also require years to build, and he needs them soon if he is to make 20 million cars per year by2030. That means completion before the end of 2029 - just over 7 years away. None have been started, nor even have locations been announced!In the unlikely event Tesla achieved that number, it would require another miracle to sell that many cars, because gaining 16.4% of the entire world car market - including ICEs - is probably impossible for any car maker.GlobeNewswiremade the 2030 estimate of total car market size in 2030 of 122.83 million units that I used to calculate that market share percentage. It makes worthwhile reading.It also looks rather stupid ifS&P Global's estimate of 26.8 million EV sales by 2030 proves correct. That would mean Tesla has to achieve 75% EV market share!Toyota is the world's largest carmaker and manufactures around 10 million cars per year. It has around 10% of the world market. It makes ICEs, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery EVs, and hydrogen cars. Tesla only makes battery EVs.It therefore takes a bit of a stretch of the imagination to see Tesla selling 20 million cars per year by 2030... if it can make them!Problems - ExternalLithium supplies. The Financial Times recently published this article headed \"Electric-car makers warned lithium supply crunch is set to last until 2030.\"Political and economic. The new Inflation Reduction Act could have a perverse and unintended negative result for Tesla. The $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit will be renewed in January of 2023 and last until the end of 2032. A striking new requirement is that qualifying cars must be assembled in North America and that materials and critical minerals in the battery must come from the U.S. or a country with a free trade agreement with the U.S. That means some electric vehicles sold in the U.S. will be ineligible as soon as the bill takes effect. Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (\"CATL\"), who make some batteries for Tesla, has dropped plans to make them in the U.S.Political backlashes. Elon Musk has probably made some enemies at the political topin Californiadue to his personal move, and Tesla's HQ, from there to Texas. They may encourage a harsh judgement in DMV's autopilot case against Tesla that I mentioned above.Tesla may yet face other challenges due to his behavior in Germany. That country is full of bureaucracies, some of which wanted to prevent the car and battery factory near Berlin from being built in the first place. Also, local residents and environmentalists - including Green party politicians - did not want their environmentally and visually valuable forest torn down, as this report shows. Elon Musk apparently barged through those bureaucratic regulations and local and environmental objections and started building without proper approvals. The battery factory has still not been started. Their unanswered environmental problems remain. This CNBC article tells more.The UK is in or near recession, as are several EU continues. They include important German, UK, French, and Italian car makers, all of which have poured billions into making EVs.That brings me to another major problem for Tesla...Competition-Loss of a previously exclusive big Tesla buyer. EV subscription company Autonomy has placed an order for 23,000 EVs with 17 global automakers to expand and diversify its subscription fleet beyond just Tesla vehicles. Autonomy currently has 1,000 cars, all of which are Tesla models. The fleet order valued at $1.2B includes EVs from BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Canoo (GOEV), Fisker (FSR), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF), Lucid Group (LCID), Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:DDAIF), Polestar (PSNY), Rivian (RIVN), Stellantis (STLA), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Tesla (TSLA), Toyota Motor, VinFast, Volvo Car (OTCPK:VLVOF), and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAF).-Others lead the autopilot race. Tesla's autopilot faces costly attacks and is anyway losing the race to others, as this chart showsinverse.comWaymo leads with Baidu not far behind...-Chinese tech giant, Baidu(BIDU) has securedthe first permits in China to offer commercial fully driverless robotaxi services to the public on open roads.Wei Dong, vice president and chief safety operation officer of Baidu's Intelligent Driving Group, said in a statement:\"We believe these permits are a key milestone on the path to the inflection point when the industry can finally roll out fully autonomous driving services at scale.\"Baidu will sell its technology to other car makers helping those leapfrog over Tesla.It will also make cars having unveiled the Apollo RT6 - photo above - an EV ready for production with aninitial starting price of $37,000. Jidu Auto, which is a joint venture between Baidu and Geely Automobile Holdings (OTCPK:GELYY) is looking at raising between $300M and $400M as it seeks to launch its first commercial vehicle in 2023.- Apple (AAPL) may have this fully autonomous EVon the road by 2025. Rumors suggest it will be made by Hyundai. If so, maybe their worldwide dealer network will sell and service it.Apple reportedly poacheda top executive from Italian luxury carmaker Lamborghini for its car project.- China's BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF,OTCPK:BYDDY) sold 641,350 EVs in the first six months of 2022, representing a 315% increase from the same period last year. Tesla, on the other hand, delivered a total of 564,743 vehicles in H1.- Century-old car makers are determined to be around for another century! Every major maker is spending billions on EVs. A JV between Stellantis (STLA) and Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) is building a $2.5 billion battery factory in Indiana. General Motors is spending $7bn to convert an existing factory to make EVs. That shows another advantage traditional car makers have overTesla.It costs less to convert an existing plant to make EVs than to build a new one from scratch, plus they have an established workforce and customer base.A report on SA tells us that GM's all-electric Hummer draws rave review from Barron's.Ford is spending $11 billion on plants in Tennessee and Kentucky, and plans to build 600,000 EVs by the end of next year.European companies are likewise spending huge sums at home and in the U.S. to build EVs and battery factories.Putting all those above points into one big picture and I conclude that...Tesla Is Beyond Its Sell-By DateI mentioned Elon Musk's sales above. He is not the only insider to have been selling; Robyn Denholm - Chairman of the Board - was a huge seller in May and June this year. From the Financial Times, the last time I could find news of insiders buying - including a tiny buy by Elon Musk - was in February 2020:Source: Financial TimesIf Insiders are big sellers - and none buy - why should outsiders do otherwise?!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":45,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9931892405,"gmtCreate":1662427923607,"gmtModify":1676537057522,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9931892405","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157743387,"gmtCreate":1625617114749,"gmtModify":1703744899083,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reply ty","listText":"Reply ty","text":"Reply ty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157743387","repostId":"1172293714","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830598310,"gmtCreate":1629079596030,"gmtModify":1676529922873,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy tesla","listText":"Buy tesla","text":"Buy tesla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/830598310","repostId":"1131835965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131835965","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1629079457,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131835965?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 10:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why This Tesla Analyst Sees Giga Berlin As Step Forward For EV Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131835965","media":"Benzinga","summary":"With indications emerging that Tesla, Inc. overseas manufacturing plant in Germany may soon come online, an analyst at Wedbush is offering his take on the development.The Tesla Analyst:Analyst Daniel Ives has an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target on Tesla shares.The opening of the Berlin Giga was earlier pushed back to late 2021 due to bureaucratic hurdles and environmental issues,the analyst said. It now appears to be slated to go online by the fall, he added.The Model 3s/Ys produced in ","content":"<p>With indications emerging that <b>Tesla, Inc.</b> overseas manufacturing plant in Germany may soon come online, an analyst at Wedbush is offering his take on the development.</p>\n<p><b>The Tesla Analyst:</b>Analyst Daniel Ives has an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target on Tesla shares.</p>\n<p><b>The Tesla Takeaways:</b>Tesla's CEO <b>Elon Musk</b> visited the Gigafactory in Berlin Friday and said the first cars at the factory are likely to be made available by October or sooner, Ives said.</p>\n<p>The opening of the Berlin Giga was earlier pushed back to late 2021 due to bureaucratic hurdles and environmental issues,the analyst said. It now appears to be slated to go online by the fall, he added.</p>\n<p>The Model 3s/Ys produced in China are being exported to Europe in a logistical nightmare that is not sustainable, the analyst said. This pushes back delivery times for customers throughout the European region, he added.</p>\n<p>\"With Tesla looking to further expand its global capacity over the coming years Berlin and Austin are key manufacturing hubs that will be key in the long term Tesla EV story,\" Ives said.</p>\n<p>Down the road, the company is likely to produce millions of EV vehicles per year vs. roughly 870,000-900,000 in 2021, the analyst said.</p>\n<p>Capacity and supply remain the biggest hurdles for Tesla vs. demand, Ives said. With Berlin and Austin slated to open soon and ramping capacity, this will be another development that allows Tesla to drive the broader EV vision globally, he added.</p>\n<p><b>TSLA Price Action:</b>Tesla shares closed on Friday at 717.17, with after hours trading dropping the price to 716.72.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why This Tesla Analyst Sees Giga Berlin As Step Forward For EV Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy This Tesla Analyst Sees Giga Berlin As Step Forward For EV Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-16 10:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With indications emerging that <b>Tesla, Inc.</b> overseas manufacturing plant in Germany may soon come online, an analyst at Wedbush is offering his take on the development.</p>\n<p><b>The Tesla Analyst:</b>Analyst Daniel Ives has an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target on Tesla shares.</p>\n<p><b>The Tesla Takeaways:</b>Tesla's CEO <b>Elon Musk</b> visited the Gigafactory in Berlin Friday and said the first cars at the factory are likely to be made available by October or sooner, Ives said.</p>\n<p>The opening of the Berlin Giga was earlier pushed back to late 2021 due to bureaucratic hurdles and environmental issues,the analyst said. It now appears to be slated to go online by the fall, he added.</p>\n<p>The Model 3s/Ys produced in China are being exported to Europe in a logistical nightmare that is not sustainable, the analyst said. This pushes back delivery times for customers throughout the European region, he added.</p>\n<p>\"With Tesla looking to further expand its global capacity over the coming years Berlin and Austin are key manufacturing hubs that will be key in the long term Tesla EV story,\" Ives said.</p>\n<p>Down the road, the company is likely to produce millions of EV vehicles per year vs. roughly 870,000-900,000 in 2021, the analyst said.</p>\n<p>Capacity and supply remain the biggest hurdles for Tesla vs. demand, Ives said. With Berlin and Austin slated to open soon and ramping capacity, this will be another development that allows Tesla to drive the broader EV vision globally, he added.</p>\n<p><b>TSLA Price Action:</b>Tesla shares closed on Friday at 717.17, with after hours trading dropping the price to 716.72.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131835965","content_text":"With indications emerging that Tesla, Inc. overseas manufacturing plant in Germany may soon come online, an analyst at Wedbush is offering his take on the development.\nThe Tesla Analyst:Analyst Daniel Ives has an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target on Tesla shares.\nThe Tesla Takeaways:Tesla's CEO Elon Musk visited the Gigafactory in Berlin Friday and said the first cars at the factory are likely to be made available by October or sooner, Ives said.\nThe opening of the Berlin Giga was earlier pushed back to late 2021 due to bureaucratic hurdles and environmental issues,the analyst said. It now appears to be slated to go online by the fall, he added.\nThe Model 3s/Ys produced in China are being exported to Europe in a logistical nightmare that is not sustainable, the analyst said. This pushes back delivery times for customers throughout the European region, he added.\n\"With Tesla looking to further expand its global capacity over the coming years Berlin and Austin are key manufacturing hubs that will be key in the long term Tesla EV story,\" Ives said.\nDown the road, the company is likely to produce millions of EV vehicles per year vs. roughly 870,000-900,000 in 2021, the analyst said.\nCapacity and supply remain the biggest hurdles for Tesla vs. demand, Ives said. With Berlin and Austin slated to open soon and ramping capacity, this will be another development that allows Tesla to drive the broader EV vision globally, he added.\nTSLA Price Action:Tesla shares closed on Friday at 717.17, with after hours trading dropping the price to 716.72.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918581897,"gmtCreate":1664415069719,"gmtModify":1676537450274,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918581897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":64,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910357107,"gmtCreate":1663562890609,"gmtModify":1676537291399,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910357107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056608368,"gmtCreate":1654999864354,"gmtModify":1676535545590,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy tsla if course its the future","listText":"Buy tsla if course its the future","text":"Buy tsla if course its the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056608368","repostId":"1116076928","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116076928","pubTimestamp":1654999695,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116076928?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-12 10:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Should You Buy Tesla Stock After UBS Upgrade?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116076928","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Assuming the Twitter situation has stabilized for the moment, the biggest potential downside to TSLA stock is the ripple effects of the company’s Shanghai plant shutdown. With a 22-day closure in April followed by reduced production and the Covid-19 lockdown’s impact on EV sales in China, the news on that front is not going to be good.However, it’s important to recognize that this was a limited time event. Production is ramping back up.Chinese EV demand is ramping back up. Any hit to TSLA stock ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>UBS upgraded <b>Tesla Inc</b>(<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) stock to a “buy” with a price target of $1,100</li><li>The UBS target suggests 50% upside for TSLA stock</li><li>TSLA stock is rising as a result of the upgrade, but remains down by around 37% in 2022, making a strong argument for growth investors to buy Tesla shares</li></ul><p><b>Tesla Inc</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) shares have been feeling the full effects of 2022’s impact on the stock market. This includes concerns about macro economic factors like inflation, interest rates, and war. It also includes supply chain issues caused by shut-downs in China.</p><p>Between being closed because of Covid-19 lockdowns and then feeling the impact of those lockdowns on the supply chain, Tesla’sShanghai plant has seen production slump.</p><p>However, TSLA stock has also been hit by unique challenges. Like CEO Elon Musk deciding he’d like to battle for ownership of social media platform <b>Twitter</b>(NYSE:<b><u>TWTR</u></b>). Or Elon Musk mandating employees return to the office or quit while ruminating about layoffs and musing that he feels “super bad” about the economy.</p><p>The Twitter drama in particular has been costly for Tesla shareholders, with TSLA stock losing a third of its value since it began in early April.</p><p>However, things may be in the process of turning around for TSLA. On Thursday, it was reported thatUBS analyst Patrick Hummelhad upgraded Tesla stock from “neutral” to “buy.” In addition, Hummel set a $1,100 price target.</p><p>Tesla stock popped Thursday in response, but remains down by roughly 37% in 2022. This upgrade may just be the latest sign the time is right to buy TSLA stock for your own portfolio.</p><p>Why UBS Is So Bullish on Tesla</p><p>Why did UBS choose now to upgrade its Tesla rating?As reported by Teslarati, Patrick Hummel cited three main reasons:</p><ul><li>Record-high order backlog with two new gigafactories ramping up production</li><li>Improving margins driven by increased prices and process innovation</li><li>A competitive edge for Tesla in key supply chains</li></ul><p>In addition, Hummel feels that Tesla’s vertical integration in chips, battery systems, and software will pay off with superior growth and profitability.</p><p><b>What About the Shanghai Shutdown?</b></p><p>Assuming the Twitter situation has stabilized for the moment, the biggest potential downside to TSLA stock is the ripple effects of the company’s Shanghai plant shutdown. With a 22-day closure in April followed by reduced production and the Covid-19 lockdown’s impact on EV sales in China, the news on that front is not going to be good.</p><p>However, it’s important to recognize that this was a limited time event. Production is ramping back up. Chinese EV demand is ramping back up. Any hit to TSLA stock when the production and delivery stats for this quarter are released is going to be temporary.</p><p><b>Bottom Line</b></p><p>UBS is making a strong case for Tesla stock to recover from its 2022 weakness. What about other investment analysts, though?</p><p>Well, TSLA stock continues to earn an “A” rating in <i>Portfolio Grader</i>. It’s a great pick for someone looking to add a proven, long-term growth stock to their portfolio. At current prices, the nearly 40% discount compared to November 2021 highs makes TSLA stock very tempting. Especially given the surge in popularity of EVs.</p><p>Checking in with investment analysts tracked by <i>CNN Money,</i> they have TSLArated as a consensus “buy.”Their median price target of $1,000 isn’t quite as aggressive as UBS’s, but it still offers a very respectable 31% upside.</p><p>Tesla stock may still have a bumpy road ahead in the short-term. Especially when the full impact of the Shanghai factory shutdown becomes apparent when the company reports earnings near the end of July. However, as a long-term growth investment, TSLA stock is definitely a buy.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Should You Buy Tesla Stock After UBS Upgrade?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShould You Buy Tesla Stock After UBS Upgrade?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-12 10:08 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/06/should-you-buy-tsla-stock-after-ubs-upgrade/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>UBS upgraded Tesla Inc(TSLA) stock to a “buy” with a price target of $1,100The UBS target suggests 50% upside for TSLA stockTSLA stock is rising as a result of the upgrade, but remains down by around ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/should-you-buy-tsla-stock-after-ubs-upgrade/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/06/should-you-buy-tsla-stock-after-ubs-upgrade/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116076928","content_text":"UBS upgraded Tesla Inc(TSLA) stock to a “buy” with a price target of $1,100The UBS target suggests 50% upside for TSLA stockTSLA stock is rising as a result of the upgrade, but remains down by around 37% in 2022, making a strong argument for growth investors to buy Tesla sharesTesla Inc(NASDAQ:TSLA) shares have been feeling the full effects of 2022’s impact on the stock market. This includes concerns about macro economic factors like inflation, interest rates, and war. It also includes supply chain issues caused by shut-downs in China.Between being closed because of Covid-19 lockdowns and then feeling the impact of those lockdowns on the supply chain, Tesla’sShanghai plant has seen production slump.However, TSLA stock has also been hit by unique challenges. Like CEO Elon Musk deciding he’d like to battle for ownership of social media platform Twitter(NYSE:TWTR). Or Elon Musk mandating employees return to the office or quit while ruminating about layoffs and musing that he feels “super bad” about the economy.The Twitter drama in particular has been costly for Tesla shareholders, with TSLA stock losing a third of its value since it began in early April.However, things may be in the process of turning around for TSLA. On Thursday, it was reported thatUBS analyst Patrick Hummelhad upgraded Tesla stock from “neutral” to “buy.” In addition, Hummel set a $1,100 price target.Tesla stock popped Thursday in response, but remains down by roughly 37% in 2022. This upgrade may just be the latest sign the time is right to buy TSLA stock for your own portfolio.Why UBS Is So Bullish on TeslaWhy did UBS choose now to upgrade its Tesla rating?As reported by Teslarati, Patrick Hummel cited three main reasons:Record-high order backlog with two new gigafactories ramping up productionImproving margins driven by increased prices and process innovationA competitive edge for Tesla in key supply chainsIn addition, Hummel feels that Tesla’s vertical integration in chips, battery systems, and software will pay off with superior growth and profitability.What About the Shanghai Shutdown?Assuming the Twitter situation has stabilized for the moment, the biggest potential downside to TSLA stock is the ripple effects of the company’s Shanghai plant shutdown. With a 22-day closure in April followed by reduced production and the Covid-19 lockdown’s impact on EV sales in China, the news on that front is not going to be good.However, it’s important to recognize that this was a limited time event. Production is ramping back up. Chinese EV demand is ramping back up. Any hit to TSLA stock when the production and delivery stats for this quarter are released is going to be temporary.Bottom LineUBS is making a strong case for Tesla stock to recover from its 2022 weakness. What about other investment analysts, though?Well, TSLA stock continues to earn an “A” rating in Portfolio Grader. It’s a great pick for someone looking to add a proven, long-term growth stock to their portfolio. At current prices, the nearly 40% discount compared to November 2021 highs makes TSLA stock very tempting. Especially given the surge in popularity of EVs.Checking in with investment analysts tracked by CNN Money, they have TSLArated as a consensus “buy.”Their median price target of $1,000 isn’t quite as aggressive as UBS’s, but it still offers a very respectable 31% upside.Tesla stock may still have a bumpy road ahead in the short-term. Especially when the full impact of the Shanghai factory shutdown becomes apparent when the company reports earnings near the end of July. However, as a long-term growth investment, TSLA stock is definitely a buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":119050477,"gmtCreate":1622509909299,"gmtModify":1704185293867,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad bad news","listText":"Bad bad news","text":"Bad bad news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/119050477","repostId":"1163643126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914173192,"gmtCreate":1665212186516,"gmtModify":1676537574313,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914173192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813349500,"gmtCreate":1630138234200,"gmtModify":1676530233711,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813349500","repostId":"1162964424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162964424","pubTimestamp":1630111098,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162964424?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 08:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162964424","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is con","content":"<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p>\n<p>IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p>\n<p>Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p>\n<p><b>What happened?</b></p>\n<p>The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p>\n<p>It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p>\n<p><b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p>\n<p>One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p>\n<p>Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>The impact to the P&L</b></p>\n<p>Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p>\n<p>Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p>\n<p>However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p>\n<p>The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-28 08:38 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.\nIPhone users thinking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162964424","content_text":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.\nIPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.\nBad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.\nWhat happened?\nThe iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.\nIt is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.\nFigure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.\nA quote from Jim Cramer\nOne of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.\nGenerally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:\n\n “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”\n\nThe impact to the P&L\nAre higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.\nHolding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.\nHowever, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.\nThe other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835292026,"gmtCreate":1629718516065,"gmtModify":1676530109751,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy tech","listText":"Buy tech","text":"Buy tech","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835292026","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836385328,"gmtCreate":1629455964364,"gmtModify":1676530046880,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy when others are fearful","listText":"Buy when others are fearful","text":"Buy when others are fearful","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836385328","repostId":"2160716324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080332167,"gmtCreate":1649844080184,"gmtModify":1676534588299,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla for the long term. Pls go lower now so I can buy more","listText":"Tesla for the long term. Pls go lower now so I can buy more","text":"Tesla for the long term. Pls go lower now so I can buy more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080332167","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881882876,"gmtCreate":1631323837295,"gmtModify":1676530528247,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881882876","repostId":"1105074635","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105074635","pubTimestamp":1631321029,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105074635?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105074635","media":"Barrons","summary":"S&P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily, ","content":"<p>S&P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily, says another—but they’ll lose money over the next decade. I can’t decide whether to panic or just sulk.</p>\n<p>The index decides the fate of more than $5 trillion in linked investor assets. My only exposure is in my retirement, joint, college, healthcare, and, come to think of it, all other investment accounts. I don’t think my Chipotle Rewards account is affected, but I haven’t read the small print.</p>\n<p>The concern, of course, is that S&P 500 trackers have had it too good for too long. The index has returned 376% over the past decade, or close to 17% a year, compounded. Among active managers tasked with beating the index, four out of five failed during the 10 years through 2020.</p>\n<p>For Bogleheads, as devotees of the late Vanguard founder and indexing pioneer John Bogle call themselves, the explanation is simple: Stock-picking is futile. But if that’s so, the typical active manager should do no better or worse than indexes on underlying stock performance, and underperform only to the extent he or she charges extra fees. In fact, they have trailed over 10 years by an average of 2.5% a year. Stinking that badly is a skill of its own—one that theoretically shouldn’t exist.</p>\n<p>Another explanation is that the S&P 500’s popularity has created its own tailwind. “Flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks,” conclude researchers from Michigan State University, the London School of Economics, and the University of California, Irvine,in a working paper that has been circulating since late last year. By now, you’ve heard that five companies — Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet,Amazon.com,and Facebook—combined for one-quarter of the S&P 500’s market value. But all are still growing nicely, so why worry now?</p>\n<p>This past Tuesday, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, predicted a 10% to 15% slide for the S&P 500 before year’s end, but she says that doesn’t make her bearish. She points out that most 12-month stretches contain a big pullback for the index, but that we haven’t had one since March 2020. Tech giants, she has noticed, have lately traded hand-in-hand with Treasuries, suggesting that investors have come to view them as havens.</p>\n<p>“Owning the index today in a global context is a relatively defensive position, and we believe that it’s time to play offense,” she says.</p>\n<p>In Shalett’s view, interest rates will rise as global economies rebound, putting pressure on stock valuations. She predicts upside earnings surprises and stock outperformance for cyclical sectors like financials, industrials, energy, and materials, and for some pockets of consumer services and healthcare. “We’re very excited about buying a lot of different stocks,” she says. “We’re just not super-psyched about owning the index.”</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, Bank of America Securities issued a similarly mixed signal. It raised its year-end S&P 500 target from 3800 all the way to 4250, which sounds optimistic. But it referred to the change as a mark to market—something typically done obligingly by accountants, not enthusiastically by forecasters. Also, the new target implies a decline of 5% or so from recent levels. Indexers have already made an easy 20% this year, so why sweat a holiday haircut? Because the bank is also predicting a 10-year average loss in the index of 0.8% a year.</p>\n<p>It’s devilishly difficult to predict short-term stock market returns. I tend to follow such forecasts more for the rationales than the targets. But long-term returns might be more closely linked than short-term ones to starting valuations, making forecasting more feasible. BofA says one measure has predicted about 80% of 10-year returns for the S&P 500 since 1987: the ratio of the index’s price to what the bank calls its normalized earnings for the past 12 months. A typical reading is 19. The latest is 29. That has nudged the model’s predicted 10-year return below zero for the first time since 1999.</p>\n<p>BofA’s prescription is to buy dividend-growers and inflation beneficiaries like energy, financials, and materials. It also likes small-cap stocks, which it says are more closely tied than large-caps to U.S. economic growth, and have valuations that point to positive 10-year returns.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Has Had a Good Run. Why Wall Street Thinks a Pullback Is Coming.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-11 08:43 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/sp-500-index-is-looking-vulnerable-51631313125?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily, says another—but they’ll lose money over the next decade. I can’t decide whether to panic or just ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/sp-500-index-is-looking-vulnerable-51631313125?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/sp-500-index-is-looking-vulnerable-51631313125?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105074635","content_text":"S&P 500 index funds will tumble by Christmas, one Wall Street strategist predicts. Not necessarily, says another—but they’ll lose money over the next decade. I can’t decide whether to panic or just sulk.\nThe index decides the fate of more than $5 trillion in linked investor assets. My only exposure is in my retirement, joint, college, healthcare, and, come to think of it, all other investment accounts. I don’t think my Chipotle Rewards account is affected, but I haven’t read the small print.\nThe concern, of course, is that S&P 500 trackers have had it too good for too long. The index has returned 376% over the past decade, or close to 17% a year, compounded. Among active managers tasked with beating the index, four out of five failed during the 10 years through 2020.\nFor Bogleheads, as devotees of the late Vanguard founder and indexing pioneer John Bogle call themselves, the explanation is simple: Stock-picking is futile. But if that’s so, the typical active manager should do no better or worse than indexes on underlying stock performance, and underperform only to the extent he or she charges extra fees. In fact, they have trailed over 10 years by an average of 2.5% a year. Stinking that badly is a skill of its own—one that theoretically shouldn’t exist.\nAnother explanation is that the S&P 500’s popularity has created its own tailwind. “Flows into index funds raise the prices of large stocks,” conclude researchers from Michigan State University, the London School of Economics, and the University of California, Irvine,in a working paper that has been circulating since late last year. By now, you’ve heard that five companies — Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet,Amazon.com,and Facebook—combined for one-quarter of the S&P 500’s market value. But all are still growing nicely, so why worry now?\nThis past Tuesday, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, predicted a 10% to 15% slide for the S&P 500 before year’s end, but she says that doesn’t make her bearish. She points out that most 12-month stretches contain a big pullback for the index, but that we haven’t had one since March 2020. Tech giants, she has noticed, have lately traded hand-in-hand with Treasuries, suggesting that investors have come to view them as havens.\n“Owning the index today in a global context is a relatively defensive position, and we believe that it’s time to play offense,” she says.\nIn Shalett’s view, interest rates will rise as global economies rebound, putting pressure on stock valuations. She predicts upside earnings surprises and stock outperformance for cyclical sectors like financials, industrials, energy, and materials, and for some pockets of consumer services and healthcare. “We’re very excited about buying a lot of different stocks,” she says. “We’re just not super-psyched about owning the index.”\nOn Wednesday, Bank of America Securities issued a similarly mixed signal. It raised its year-end S&P 500 target from 3800 all the way to 4250, which sounds optimistic. But it referred to the change as a mark to market—something typically done obligingly by accountants, not enthusiastically by forecasters. Also, the new target implies a decline of 5% or so from recent levels. Indexers have already made an easy 20% this year, so why sweat a holiday haircut? Because the bank is also predicting a 10-year average loss in the index of 0.8% a year.\nIt’s devilishly difficult to predict short-term stock market returns. I tend to follow such forecasts more for the rationales than the targets. But long-term returns might be more closely linked than short-term ones to starting valuations, making forecasting more feasible. BofA says one measure has predicted about 80% of 10-year returns for the S&P 500 since 1987: the ratio of the index’s price to what the bank calls its normalized earnings for the past 12 months. A typical reading is 19. The latest is 29. That has nudged the model’s predicted 10-year return below zero for the first time since 1999.\nBofA’s prescription is to buy dividend-growers and inflation beneficiaries like energy, financials, and materials. It also likes small-cap stocks, which it says are more closely tied than large-caps to U.S. economic growth, and have valuations that point to positive 10-year returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832036872,"gmtCreate":1629537055396,"gmtModify":1676530067755,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"PSFund","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ef339918e26708070f76eb849ca6534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy tech","listText":"Buy tech","text":"Buy tech","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832036872","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p>\n<p>In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p>\n<p>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p>\n<p>Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p>\n<p>A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p>\n<p>Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p>\n<p>You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p>\n<p><b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p>\n<p>“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p>\n<p>“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p>\n<p>He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p>\n<p>All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p>\n<p><b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p>\n<p>All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p>\n<p>In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p>\n<p>These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p>\n<p><b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p>\n<p>This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p>\n<p>This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p>\n<p><b>The stocks to buy</b></p>\n<p>Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p>\n<p><b>New management plays</b></p>\n<p>Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p>\n<p>Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p>\n<p><b>A data center and gaming play</b></p>\n<p>Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p>\n<p><b>Design tool companies</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p>\n<p>Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p>\n<p><b>An EUV play</b></p>\n<p>To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p>\n<p>In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p>\n<p><b>Oversupply</b></p>\n<p>Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p>\n<p>The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p>\n<p>Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p>\n<p>Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p>\n<p><b>A disturbing signal</b></p>\n<p>A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p>\n<p>Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p>\n<p>But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p>\n<p>Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p>\n<p>Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 22:18 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","ON":"安森美半导体","ASML":"阿斯麦","GOOGL":"谷歌A","QCOM":"高通","CDNS":"铿腾电子","TSM":"台积电","AMZN":"亚马逊","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","SSNLF":"三星电子","GOOG":"谷歌","SNPS":"新思科技"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
