Tesla: Buy The Fear, Sell The Hype, Rinse And Repeat

Seekingalpha2023-04-24

SummaryTesla's earnings release for Q1'23 resulted in a 10% share price drop.After selling out of Tesla in February, I am rebuying Tesla at a much more attractive valuation.Tesla is set to continue to...

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Comments

UTOtrader
2023-04-25
UTOtrader
Selling
Sphere
2023-04-25
Sphere
To the moon
- Sphere:
  Up
Option newbi
2023-04-25
Option newbi
Tesla will fly to the moon. Buy buy buy
bluefun
2023-04-24
bluefun
Are you sure
BKT
2023-04-24
BKT
Pls like thanks
Sporeshare
2023-04-24
Sporeshare
Now 159.45, is much cheaper than your EP 165. Dyodd.
- Chou93:
  ok

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In recent days, however, Tesla's shares have seen new selling pressure related to Tesla's Q1'23 earnings release and Elon Musk's comments about future EV price cuts. These cuts could lead to long term market share gains, but they also pose a short term risk of resulting in smaller operating income margins... which continued to contract in Q1'23. I believe new market fears about Tesla offer a great new entry into Tesla's shares, at a much more attractive valuation!Tesla misses on Q1'23 earningsTesla reported $0.85 per-share in adjusted EPS for the first-quarter, meeting expectations, but the EV company missed on the top line. The earnings release resulted in a 10% share price drop, one that I am buying.Source: TeslaOperating margins may further erode if Tesla continues to lower prices to drive demand and revenue growthOne major problem that Tesla is currently dealing with is that the EV company is aggressively lowering product prices in order to spur demand which is a risky strategy that may backfire if other EV manufacturers take the bait and also lower EV prices aggressively. Elon Musk recently made comments about Tesla's pricing strategy, indicating that the company may further lower prices in order to grow revenues.Revenue growth is extremely important for Tesla because the company is seen chiefly as a growth stock. Tesla's revenue growth has moderated since reaching a peak during the pandemic: total revenues hit $23.3B in Q1'23, showing just about 24% growth.Data by YChartsTesla is profitable and an industry-leader and can afford to forgo short term profitability. The EV company reported $2.5B in net income in the first-quarter, showing a 24% decline year over year. However, due to Tesla's aggressive pricing strategy, which saw the 6th round of recent price cuts just before earnings, could potential further weigh on the EV company's short term profitability outlook. Tesla lowered the prices for the Model Y by 6% and for the Model 3 by 5%. Tesla's margins are also at risk of further eroding if Tesla follows through with this strategy: the company's GAAP gross margin slumped from 29.1% in the year-earlier period to 19.3% in Q1'23, showing a decline of nearly 10 PP.Tesla's operating margins fell almost 8 PP year over year to 11.4% and I do see elevated margin risks for Tesla if Elon Musk continues to push for price cuts.Source: TeslaTesla's operating margins are still solid when compared to the broader auto sector. They also trended up sharply, starting in Q1'20, as Tesla reached critical scale and pushed the ramp of its Model 3 and Model Y, two of the company's most popular EV models on a global basis. The broader auto industry is looking at average operating margins.Source: TeslaTesla is attractively valued againI must confess that I was lucky when I recommended to sell Tesla in February at $204. However, the 10% share price drop on Thursday seems exaggerated to me and I have bought the drop again at ~$165, effectively restarting a new position in the EV company. I believe the valuation is attractively chiefly because of Tesla's aggressive focus to grow revenues which may grow even faster than what the current consensus indicates.Analysts currently estimate that Tesla could generate revenues of $100.4B in FY 2023 and $131.0B in FY 2024, implying a year over year growth rate of 30%. In FY 2023, Tesla is expected to grow revenues 23%, so analysts expect an acceleration of growth to occur which relates to the continual scaling of Tesla's Model 3 and Y production, but also to the beginning ramp of the Cybertruck which is expected to hit the market in the middle of FY 2023. However, with Tesla pursuing an aggressive pricing strategy, revenue may grow even more rapidly than the 30% growth rate implied by analysts' top line estimates.Data by YChartsBased off of current top line estimates, Tesla is valued at 4.0X FY 2024 revenues, but investors currently get a 39% discount to the company's 1-year average P/S ratio. Tesla achieved a P/S ratio as high as 10.4X within the last year, so I believe shares have considerable re-rating potential once investors are prepared to move on from the price cut announcement.Data by YChartsCompared against other US-based EV companies, Tesla is still the best deal in the industry, in my opinion, despite a slightly higher P/S ratio. This is because the EV company has an unparalleled size and scale and Tesla has already achieved considerable net income profitability. Other companies like Lucid Group (LCID) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) are still in the start-up phase and are deeply earnings and free cash flow negative.Data by YChartsRisks with TeslaThe biggest commercial risk for Tesla right now is that the company's operating margins will continue to erode in order for Tesla to spur revenue growth and gain market share. This could be a risky strategy for the company, especially if other EV manufacturers follow suit and lower their product prices, which, in the worst-case, could lead to an escalating price war in the EV segment where margins are already low. Tesla is the leading global EV brand, but weaker margins are unlikely to win the cheers of investors and may ultimately hurt Tesla's profitability.Final thoughtsI believe investors should see last week's 10% price correction as a strong buying opportunity now that investors have become more fearful again. While it is true that Tesla is going to pay for stronger revenue growth with lower profits in the short term, it could be a successful strategy to drive electric vehicle demand and therefore lead to market share gains. Since Tesla, as opposed to many other start-ups in the EV industry, is already profitable, the company can afford an aggressive pricing strategy. Since shares of Tesla once again dropped and fear has affected the market again, I believe this 10% sell-off is a new opportunity to capitalize on this fear. The time for me to sell shares of Tesla, again, will be when the market turns super bullish on the EV company and investors are euphoric.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9947067814,"gmtCreate":1682378384838,"gmtModify":1682378388944,"author":{"id":"3574547619690492","authorId":"3574547619690492","name":"UTOtrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82be6befb29ac8516e463638d3f659d5","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574547619690492","authorIdStr":"3574547619690492"},"htmlText":"Selling&nbsp;","listText":"Selling&nbsp;","text":"Selling","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947067814","repostId":1156592135,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9947064806,"gmtCreate":1682377649305,"gmtModify":1682377653129,"author":{"id":"3573432013960035","authorId":"3573432013960035","name":"Sphere","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573432013960035","authorIdStr":"3573432013960035"},"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947064806","repostId":1156592135,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":106333196,"gmtCreate":1682377660726,"gmtModify":1682377667257,"authorId":3573432013960035,"author":{"id":3573432013960035,"idStr":"3573432013960035","authorId":3573432013960035,"name":"Sphere","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9947064806,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">Up</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">Up</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">Up</span>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9947087609,"gmtCreate":1682352876501,"gmtModify":1682353075730,"author":{"id":"3581635628520016","authorId":"3581635628520016","name":"Option newbi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36fcd0a68c29a04462622a82b176cd35","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581635628520016","authorIdStr":"3581635628520016"},"htmlText":"Tesla will fly to the moon. Buy buy buy","listText":"Tesla will fly to the moon. Buy buy buy","text":"Tesla will fly to the moon. Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947087609","repostId":1156592135,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9947085186,"gmtCreate":1682350027945,"gmtModify":1682350032051,"author":{"id":"3560825566709184","authorId":"3560825566709184","name":"bluefun","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fe19aaaddc330d697022fc5b1a032d","vip":2,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560825566709184","authorIdStr":"3560825566709184"},"htmlText":"Are you sure","listText":"Are you sure","text":"Are you sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947085186","repostId":1156592135,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9947083895,"gmtCreate":1682347572717,"gmtModify":1682347576700,"author":{"id":"3570853427202414","authorId":"3570853427202414","name":"BKT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/15cb8e8f0a7c44ca01c83b3bfdddbd86","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570853427202414","authorIdStr":"3570853427202414"},"htmlText":"Pls like thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like thanks&nbsp;","text":"Pls like thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947083895","repostId":1156592135,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9947083093,"gmtCreate":1682347395712,"gmtModify":1682347399901,"author":{"id":"3557880070444625","authorId":"3557880070444625","name":"Sporeshare","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b834a9afafa96ec1133650e853d8e74f","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3557880070444625","authorIdStr":"3557880070444625"},"htmlText":"Now 159.45, is much cheaper than your EP 165. Dyodd.","listText":"Now 159.45, is much cheaper than your EP 165. Dyodd.","text":"Now 159.45, is much cheaper than your EP 165. Dyodd.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947083093","repostId":1156592135,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":106333350,"gmtCreate":1682381280388,"gmtModify":1682381286608,"authorId":3573702517760821,"author":{"id":3573702517760821,"idStr":"3573702517760821","authorId":3573702517760821,"name":"Chou93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da0d57ab58055f8c2c7aa96613e46a29","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.94%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9947083093,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":101,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":8,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1156592135"}