详解英国养老金危机的“罪魁祸首”：LDI

华尔街见闻2022-10-22

作者：周欣瑜养老金风波的漩涡面前，英国首相特拉斯黯然辞职。几周前，许多投资者可能还不知道LDI是什么，如今它已沦为差点将英国金融市场推入“末日循环”的元凶。事实上LDI并非什么洪水猛兽，相反，在过去的20年中，LDI一度完美地履行了其作为风险管理工具的主要职能。所以，LDI风波的问题何在？谁是LDI风波的始作俑者？而政府央行的让步又能否平息这场风波？备受推崇的DB养老金投资策略——负债驱动投资（...

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雨点尔
2022-10-23
雨点尔
謝謝分享
JWZ137
2022-10-23
JWZ137
Wow
- Paulyang:
  赞一个
- 康康的:
  wo w
是龙不是虫
2022-10-22
是龙不是虫
k
- 康康的:
  噢
飞呗
2022-10-22
飞呗
維持

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672945><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：周欣瑜养老金风波的漩涡面前，英国首相特拉斯黯然辞职。几周前，许多投资者可能还不知道LDI是什么，如今它已沦为差点将英国金融市场推入“末日循环”的元凶。事实上LDI并非什么洪水猛兽，相反，在过去的20年中，LDI一度完美地履行了其作为风险管理工具的主要职能。所以，LDI风波的问题何在？谁是LDI风波的始作俑者？而政府央行的让步又能否平息这场风波？备受推崇的DB养老金投资策略——负债驱动投资（...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672945\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"EWU","symbol_name":"英国ETF-iShares 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”，比如让英国企业提供更多的养老金缴纳，从而产生额外的资金负担。为了达成资产与负债的完全匹配，实现对冲利率和通胀风险，负债驱动投资策略（LDI）应此而生。于此同时，作为长久期负债，可供选择的匹配资产，要么久期满足，但收益太低，比如30年期的英国国债；要么收益够高，但久期太短，比如企业债和股票。那怎么能做到既要赚到足够的收益满足未来的支出，又要和负债的久期相匹配？答案是使用衍生品，比如用利率互换协议（IRS）来匹配利率风险，或者用通胀互换（ inflation swap ）等来匹配通胀风险。以IRS“支付浮动利率，收取固定利率”为例，如果利率下降，一方面负债的净现值上升，另一方面IRS也是赚钱，资产和负债同步上涨，相互抵消。而如果利率上升，虽然IRS亏钱了，但负债的净现值也下降了（利率越高现值越低，见图1），又抵消了。假设某养老金计划在30年后有一笔100元的固定支出。这段时间内的平均年利率预期为4.00%，因此这笔支出当前的价值为31元。为了对冲该现金流的利率风险，养老金计划可以1）将31元投资于一个30年期的债券；或者2）与对手方达成一个本金为31元、固定利率为4.00%的30年期IRS合约。相比完全持有债券，IRS只需要支付保证金。假设IRS保证金约10%，那只需要占用3.1元的资金就能覆盖等价31块债券的现金价值（即30年后的支付敞口），剩余的27.9元便可用于投资高收益资产。假设由于宏观环境的变化，未来30年的预期利率下降了1%，变为3%。那么，负债的价值将增加10元，达到41元。那么如果养老金只有债券，债券价格也相应上涨为41块。如果养老金计划持有的是互换，那么当预期利率下降为3%时，未来预计支付的金额将减少。而由于收到的金额依然保持不变。所以，互换合约的价值就会上涨，即：养老金计划以31元为本金支付每年3%的利息（30年后为75元），但收取的仍为4%（即，30年后，对手方支付100元）。这两笔资金流在30年后的差额是25元，按3%折现到当前为10元。反之，如果利率上升到5%，那么负债的价值减少10元，为21元。同时债券也相应跌到约21块，而互换收到的金额不变，但支付金额增加，所以，互换合约的价值就会下跌约亏损10块，亏损到一定程度则需要补保证金。可见在不同的情况下，养老金策略始终能保持资产与未来的现金流支出（负债）相匹配。这当中重要的是，相比全部持有债券，衍生品非常节约占用资金，前期只需要向投行缴纳少量的抵押品，就可以获得足够的敞口。节约下来的资金，就可以配置短久期高收益率的企业债、甚至股票上，来实现养老金的增值。历史证明LDI也一度完美地履行了其作为风险管理工具的主要职能。在过去20年里，尤其是2012年以来，英国金边债券收益率大幅跌落至2%以下水平，LDI一再使职业养老金免受英国国债收益率涨跌的影响，完成了DB计划既要又要的期望。甚至到今年9月末，DB计划的盈亏状况随着利率的回升而出现显着盈余，（负债回落高于资产）。是流动性冲击，不是偿付危机。但末日循环是什么？但2022年的黑天鹅可能是40年以来最黑的。全球利率大幅上行，10年期英债收益率从1%上升到了4.5%，涨幅创下了历史最高。在此如履薄冰之际，英国新首相还火上浇油地推出两项财政扩张计划，彻底带崩了英国金融市场，股债汇三杀，利率飙升。方才说了，本来利率的上升对LDI来说应该也是中性的，虽然IRS亏了10块，但负债的净现值也下降了10块。但问题是加息后，在IRS的亏损是需要补缴保证金的。而负债净现值的下降纯粹是账面概念。这与我们已经见识过的，遭遇了流动性冲击的投行、大宗商品交易商一样。也许你的资产是有价值的，也许你有实物资产可用来交割，但问题是你短期填不上巨大的保证金漏洞，那一样要违约出局，因此养老金将通过抛售多余的国债或头寸，甚至半流动性的高收益资产来填补流动性缺口。所以事实上，包括英国官方依然强调英国养老金面临的危机是流动性危机，而非偿付能力危机。解决方案应侧重于流动性提供、稳定市场情绪和去杠杆化。其实LDI在设计的时候不是没有考虑到利率上升可能带来的抵押品不足的问题，也预留一定的抵押品的安全垫。但问题是，在经历了十余年的低利率、低增长后，没有人会预料长端收益率飙升的尾部风险的情况，结果今年这就来了。为了补缴超百亿英镑的保证金或抵押品。LDI养老金开始抛售各类资产，整个英国金融市场就可能陷入抵押品抛售-资产价格下跌市场风险偏好下滑-国内外资金加速撤出-保证金压力倍数上升的“末日循环”。显然，只有第三方力量介入，才有可能打破上述“末日循环”。英国政府和英国央行采取了相应举措：政府央行的让步能否平息这场风波？根据巴克莱的计算，目前DB养老金资产约缩减至1.5万亿英镑。其中，约6000亿英镑的通胀挂钩债券和长期金边债券，约3000亿英镑公司债券，3000亿英镑股票，约2300亿英镑海外股票，600亿英镑私人股本，400亿英镑英国股票。杠杆主要集中在金边债券和通胀挂钩债券投资组合中。之前市场预测金边债券和通胀挂钩债投资组合的杠杆率平均为4倍，危机后已降至1.5倍至3倍之间。摩根大通表示，与LDI相关的衍生工具头寸的市值损失可能在1250亿英镑至1500亿英镑之间。经过该轮养老金风波之后，尽管英国金融市场大幅动荡，但养老金资金比率实际上甚至有所改善。从偿付能力角度来看：负债下降幅度大于资产下降幅度，这似乎正是LDI策略的本意所在。但显然面对极端的尾部事件，LDI缺乏必要的流动性和抵押品的管理。巴克莱认为，9月底的流动性缺口约有1300亿英镑，但大多数LDI管理人已经筹集了一定的流动资金，并可能再承受50-100个基点的冲击，而不会触发9月26日来的大规模抵押品清算。然而如果利率继续上涨，养老金则需要进一步的资产出售。从短期看，英国政府的财政刺激“撤回”和英国央行“暂时性QE”可以修复债券市场流动性，稳定资产价格，避免债券市场流动性危机演化为债务危机甚至全面金融危机。但这些依然是治标不治本。中长期来看：1】英国央行临时性QE与加息互相矛盾，市场对于中央银行政策倾向的预期更为困惑。英国市场动荡与流动性枯竭是无序财政刺激的结果，随后英国央行为维护市场流动性进行“临时性QE”，相当于中央银行为财政扩张的负面影响“兜底”，央行信誉降低与通胀失控的风险可能进一步抬升。2】虽然财政大臣亨特撤回财政刺激受到市场欢迎，但英国远未摆脱困境，高通胀和衰退都将进一步分裂，经济和金融仍然处于非常不稳状态。同时英政府2年内到期债务规模庞大，需要关注10月31日发布的中期财政计划。3】除英国央行外，保险与养老金、外资也是英国国债主要持有者，若外资抛售潮趋于恶化，英国央行或难以完全应对。4】LDI需要战略性解决暴露的流动性缺口。短期内是通过抛售金边债来回笼约100亿英镑的流动性，但中长期会更倾向于抛售公司债券、ABS、CLO等资产。因为其市场流动性远远低于英国国债市场，如果LDI想要结构性地增加其流动性，未来他们可能会持有更多的英国国债，而不是公司债券等半流动资产，并使用更少的杠杆。这可能影响对ABS、CLO和类似短期浮动利率信贷产品以及公司债券的需求，甚至长期的非流动信贷头寸（如贷款和私人信贷）。但其实我们已经看到英国养老金抛售CLO已经蔓延至大洋彼岸的美国CLO市场。而从本质上来说，养老金风波的始作俑者究竟是什么？是LDI高杠杆的原罪？是特拉斯雪上加霜的财政刺激？是英国央行放水太多又加息太慢？甚至是LCH（伦敦结算所）对衍生品交易的助涨和放任？或许每个人的答案不会相同。然而只要一边央行们在加息的道路上狂奔，一边经济衰退近在咫尺，那么LDI们的警报就无法解除。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9981200179,"gmtCreate":1666501606892,"gmtModify":1676537763282,"author":{"id":"3578181469213089","authorId":"3578181469213089","name":"雨点尔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798290ed3e705acda62fcffc058d4628","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3578181469213089","authorIdStr":"3578181469213089"},"htmlText":"謝謝分享","listText":"謝謝分享","text":"謝謝分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981200179","repostId":1158082143,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9981859619,"gmtCreate":1666481388431,"gmtModify":1676537759061,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575067142498671","authorIdStr":"3575067142498671"},"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981859619","repostId":1158082143,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104482082,"gmtCreate":1666580292240,"gmtModify":1666580296112,"authorId":3573356109011085,"author":{"id":3573356109011085,"idStr":"3573356109011085","authorId":3573356109011085,"name":"Paulyang","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9981859619,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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