鲍威尔两次露面，美联储如何引导下周的美股？

华尔街见闻2022-09-25

美联储周三如期公布连续第三次加息75个基点，将联邦基金利率推至3％-3.25％，为2008年初以来最高水平，同时还意外释放更强的鹰派倾向，暗示仍将多次大幅加息。对此市场以连续大跌回应。周五，标普500指数跌至3693点，较1月份的峰值已经跌去23%。此外，2年起美债收益率继续刷新十五年来高位。有分析师预计，由于鲍威尔在美联储决议公布后释放出容忍以衰退为代价抗通胀的明确信号，这意味着接下来投资者即将...

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Kellytan
2022-09-26
Kellytan
Ok
liuxiangwei
2022-09-25
liuxiangwei
[微笑]
- liuxiangwei:
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Mingzu
2022-09-25
Mingzu
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- Mingzu:
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Mingzu
2022-09-25
Mingzu
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hangyuliang
2022-09-25
hangyuliang
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- hangyuliang:
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Linda2240
2022-09-25
Linda2240
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- Linda2240:
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Ryan）表示，鲍威尔预计将于下周二和周三露面讲话，且在19个美联储理事中，其中12个也将于下周发声。他称：美联储一二把手和一众美联储理事都将于下周开始陆续发表讲话，几乎所有表态都可能涉及经济前景和货币政策。瑞安认为，尽管美联储官员们普遍“放鹰”称仍将激进加息，不过也可能存在分歧。他指出：从点阵图来看，有些理事预计明年联邦基金利率将达到4.75%的峰值，而有些则认为最高利率有可能达到4.5%和4.25%。尽管这些差异看起来不大，但是考虑到投资者对利率的密切关注，也会对股市产生重大影响。如果美联储官员开始倾向于较为温和的货币政策，例如更缓慢地提高利率，那么美股可能将会上涨。不过我们预计，利率最终将会不得不升至5%，这可能对投资者不利。此外，下周还会有一系列重磅数据发布。下周四，美国经济分析局（BEA）将发布对美国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）的第三次预估，并可能修正一些较早的数据。有分析表示，尽管GDP数据通常不会对市场产生太大影响，但是任何表明经济进一步陷入衰退的迹象都可能影响投资者情绪。值得注意的是，BEA将于下周五发布消费者物价指数，这是美联储密切关注的衡量通胀的关键指标。该指数在今年6月份同比上涨6.8%，这是自1982年以来的最高水平，7月该指数放缓至6.3%，如今分析师普遍预计，8月核心PCE将上涨4.7%。无视美股美债惨跌 美联储仍预计激进加息本周美联储释放鹰派信号重创市场后，美联储官员似乎没有“救市”的打算。鲍威尔表示，疫情干扰后经济可能进入“新常态”，我们继续应对一系列异乎寻常的干扰。美联储副主席布雷纳德重申通胀非常高。而在美联储会后，高盛大幅上调了对美联储加息的预期，预计11月联储会连续第四次加息75个基点，12月将加息50个基点，并预计利率峰值将达到4.5%-4.75%，高于此前预期的4%-4.25%。有分析认为，美联储官员面临着无法轻松退出大幅加息的新路径，这意味着美联储最终可能会过度紧缩，并将美国经济推入衰退的深渊。在线经纪机构嘉盛集团全球研究团队主管马特·韦勒（Matt Weller）认为，从美联储自己做出的利率预测来看，没有任何迹象显示其会在2024年之前转向降息，这意味着美联储将会坚定不移地对抗通胀。韦勒预计，下周美债收益率和美元将会上涨，而美股和风险资产下跌的近期趋势可能将会得到延续。在线外汇交易平台安达公司（OANDA）高级市场分析师爱德华·莫亚（Edward Moya）表示：从未来几周来看，似乎任何经济数据或美联储的讲话都无法让市场相信美联储激进的紧缩步伐很快就会停止，即美联储收紧步伐可能将成为一种新的常态。我们预计，标准普尔500指数将会下行至3470的低点，这对一些长期投资者来说可能会很有吸引力。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9911954925,"gmtCreate":1664123249667,"gmtModify":1676537393466,"author":{"id":"3586591951932367","authorId":"3586591951932367","name":"Kellytan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49d9e5c19d9d4908b66f605e189b42b6","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911954925","repostId":1162800991,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9911912676,"gmtCreate":1664113279395,"gmtModify":1676537392116,"author":{"id":"3582688457818684","authorId":"3582688457818684","name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911912676","repostId":1162800991,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104084333,"gmtCreate":1664113288564,"gmtModify":1664113291989,"authorId":3582688457818684,"author":{"id":3582688457818684,"authorId":3582688457818684,"name":"liuxiangwei","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2769f9b0cdb3c39664fc7b74a5de5f0d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9911912676,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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