都是缩减QE，这一次和八年前会有什么不同？

华尔街见闻2021-04-14

“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。” 2013年4月，也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前，美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%，黑人失业率则还高达13％。那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久，他在公开市场委员会会议上表示，“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”，建议开始考虑减少购债。八年后的今天，失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%，就业市场健康状况也远好于当年（如黑人...

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Comments

Kenwong
2021-04-15
Kenwong
?
hihiday
2021-04-15
hihiday
[微笑] [開心] [財迷] [憤怒]
dwh790101
2021-04-15
dwh790101
沒啥不同
云里梦里飞
2021-04-15
云里梦里飞
以前扭扭捏捏四萬億，現在日以繼夜四十萬億[財迷] [開心]
- hihiday:
  放大水
花喵喵
2021-04-15
花喵喵
[齜牙]
hhyw
2021-04-15
hhyw
這次QE錢看起來很多，但是如果考慮通貨其實還沒2008年那麼多??

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Schneider评论，这可能让美联储认为，通胀总体上较弱，所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平，而不会有很大的通胀风险。\n根据美联储的预测，到年底，失业率将从目前的6％下降到4.5％，预计到今年夏天，每月将增加一百万就业人数。美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万，远超预期，被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。\n不过，许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%，创下2018年8月来最高水平，虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应，但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。\n疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂，目前尚未完全恢复，近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头，汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善，线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。\nColumbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示：\n\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除，经济正在进行重新配置，我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n\n何时“取得实质性进展”？\n那么对于就业市场，怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”？\n鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法：如果能像3月那样增加就业，“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口，“那样就真正开始显示，向着我们的目标有了进展”。\n但另外，美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。\n3月一次美联储会议上，鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧：\n\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击，本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n\n目前，虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上，表现都优于2013年退出QE时期，但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。\n\nIndeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick Bunker说表示，今天的美联储“对充分就业的构成有不同的看法”，“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":344756006,"gmtCreate":1618445545105,"gmtModify":1704710888662,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559247438203174","authorIdStr":"3559247438203174"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344756006","repostId":1163247183,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":344723642,"gmtCreate":1618444791586,"gmtModify":1704710871159,"author":{"id":"3569812709036277","authorId":"3569812709036277","name":"hihiday","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100a9eb174dc2a8741c70f9d335ae5e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569812709036277","authorIdStr":"3569812709036277"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;[憤怒]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;[憤怒]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [開心] [財迷] [憤怒]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344723642","repostId":1163247183,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":344769256,"gmtCreate":1618444183575,"gmtModify":1704710857754,"author":{"id":"3495252398666385","authorId":"3495252398666385","name":"dwh790101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa8ecad30f97a85a2c39efed09e6d26","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3495252398666385","authorIdStr":"3495252398666385"},"htmlText":"沒啥不同","listText":"沒啥不同","text":"沒啥不同","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344769256","repostId":1163247183,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":344784771,"gmtCreate":1618444023293,"gmtModify":1704710854055,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568431359478653","authorIdStr":"3568431359478653"},"htmlText":"以前扭扭捏捏四萬億，現在日以繼夜四十萬億[財迷]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;","listText":"以前扭扭捏捏四萬億，現在日以繼夜四十萬億[財迷]&nbsp;[開心]&nbsp;","text":"以前扭扭捏捏四萬億，現在日以繼夜四十萬億[財迷] [開心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344784771","repostId":1163247183,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4038504,"gmtCreate":1618444752507,"gmtModify":1680784096734,"authorId":3569812709036277,"author":{"id":3569812709036277,"idStr":"3569812709036277","authorId":3569812709036277,"name":"hihiday","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/100a9eb174dc2a8741c70f9d335ae5e9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":344784771,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"放大水","text":"放大水","html":"放大水"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":344739631,"gmtCreate":1618442442423,"gmtModify":1704710818936,"author":{"id":"3567731939595703","authorId":"3567731939595703","name":"花喵喵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee1b9176bceb20048df5e91a628ddf41","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567731939595703","authorIdStr":"3567731939595703"},"htmlText":"[齜牙]&nbsp;","listText":"[齜牙]&nbsp;","text":"[齜牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344739631","repostId":1163247183,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":344798284,"gmtCreate":1618442022848,"gmtModify":1704710807735,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"這次QE錢看起來很多，但是如果考慮通貨其實還沒2008年那麼多??","listText":"這次QE錢看起來很多，但是如果考慮通貨其實還沒2008年那麼多??","text":"這次QE錢看起來很多，但是如果考慮通貨其實還沒2008年那麼多??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/344798284","repostId":1163247183,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":31,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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