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Kenwong
11-03 20:24
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
10-30
$TSLL 20261106 11.0 CALL$
Kenwong
10-26
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
10-21
$TSLL 20261023 9.5 CALL$
Kenwong
10-21
$TSLL 20261023 9.5 CALL$
Kenwong
10-21
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
10-12
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
10-06
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
10-06
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
09-03
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
09-03
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
07-20
$三倍做空半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXS)$
Kenwong
07-19
$三倍做空半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXS)$
Kenwong
2025-12-08
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
2025-12-06
$2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$
Kenwong
2025-05-02
$TSLL 20250523 8.0 PUT$
Kenwong
2025-03-01
$TSLL 20250328 10.0 PUT$
😅😅😅😅😅😅
Kenwong
2024-10-23
$Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$
Kenwong
2024-04-10
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
🎇🎇🎇
Kenwong
2024-02-09
$UiPath(PATH)$
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ETF-Direxion(TSLL)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afa66a52eadcf3effd0ae9491c42e379","width":"866","height":"1438"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/622267105604368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":620793637511440,"gmtCreate":1792589473468,"gmtModify":1792590718805,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLL 20261023 9.5 CALL\">$TSLL 20261023 9.5 CALL$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/OPT/TSLL 20261023 9.5 CALL\">$TSLL 20261023 9.5 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05:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Didi has submitted its IPO application, with management holding over 50% of the voting rights.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179767026","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。","content":"<p>On June 10, Eastern Time, DIDI Chuxing officially filed for an IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), intending to list on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq under the ticker symbol \"DIDI\". According to its prospectus, as of March 2021, Didi operated in more than 4,000 cities in 15 countries around the world, with 493 million annual active users worldwide.</p><p>According to the prospectus, prior to the IPO, Didi founder and CEO Cheng Wei held 7% of the shares, and co-founder and president Liu Qing held 1.7%. According to the standard dual-class share structure for Chinese concept stocks, Cheng Wei and Liu Qing collectively hold more than 48% of the voting rights, and Didi's management, including Cheng Wei and Liu Qing, holds more than 50% of the voting rights.</p><p>Currently, many domestic internet companies such as JD.com, Xiaomi, and Pinduoduo have adopted the AB share model, which is a dual-class share structure. It is through this model that founders such as Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun, and Huang Zheng, although the shares they own do not reach the level of absolute control, are able to firmly control the company.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Didi has submitted its IPO application, with management holding over 50% of the voting rights.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDidi has submitted its IPO application, with management holding over 50% of the voting rights.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-11 05:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 10, Eastern Time, DIDI Chuxing officially filed for an IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), intending to list on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq under the ticker symbol \"DIDI\". According to its prospectus, as of March 2021, Didi operated in more than 4,000 cities in 15 countries around the world, with 493 million annual active users worldwide.</p><p>According to the prospectus, prior to the IPO, Didi founder and CEO Cheng Wei held 7% of the shares, and co-founder and president Liu Qing held 1.7%. According to the standard dual-class share structure for Chinese concept stocks, Cheng Wei and Liu Qing collectively hold more than 48% of the voting rights, and Didi's management, including Cheng Wei and Liu Qing, holds more than 50% of the voting rights.</p><p>Currently, many domestic internet companies such as JD.com, Xiaomi, and Pinduoduo have adopted the AB share model, which is a dual-class share structure. It is through this model that founders such as Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun, and Huang Zheng, although the shares they own do not reach the level of absolute control, are able to firmly control the company.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf210b0a9da00c82cb2c925171714e26","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179767026","content_text":"美东时间6月10日，滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）递交IPO申请，拟于纽交所或纳斯达克挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。招股书显示，截至2021年3月，滴滴在全球15个国家4000多个城市开展业务，平台全球年活跃用户达到4.93亿。\n招股书显示，IPO之前，滴滴创始人、CEO程维持股7%，联合创始人、总裁柳青持股1.7%。根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排，程维柳青合计拥有超过48%的投票权，包括程维柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过50%的投票权。\n目前国内京东、小米、拼多多等多家互联网公司都采用了AB股即同股不同权的模式，刘强东、雷军、黄峥等创始人也正是借此拥有的股份尽管没有达到绝对控股的程度，却能够牢牢地掌控住公司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIDI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884532775,"gmtCreate":1631916921697,"gmtModify":1676530667094,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884532775","repostId":"2168523595","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2168523595","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631857629,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168523595?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-17 13:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Three Musketeers\" of Crude Oil Market: Virus, Hurricane and U.S. government","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168523595","media":"钟正生经济研究","summary":"核心摘要\n今年7月以来，国际油价经历大幅震荡下行，这背后有三个关键词——病毒、飓风和美国政府。上述“三剑客”将对今年9月以后的国际油价产生复杂影响，本文重点讨论其影响并再次展望今年下半年油价走势。\n剑","content":"<p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p>Since July of this year, international oil prices have experienced significant downward fluctuations, driven by three key words: virus, hurricane, and the US government. The aforementioned \"three musketeers\" will have a complex impact on international oil prices after September this year. This article focuses on their impact and looks forward to the oil price trend in the second half of this year.</p><p><b>Swordsman 1: Delta variant virus.</b>Since July of this year, the global COVID-19 pandemic has worsened due to the Delta variant, affecting both the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers.<b>This round of the pandemic has not yet had a significant impact on global oil consumption, but it has significantly dampened demand expectations.</b>In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by 550,000 barrels per day. Considering that global oil consumption remained strong in June and July this year, global flight data showed strong demand in August, and the limited intensity of the current round of epidemic prevention policies in major economies, the marginal impact of the new round of the epidemic on global economic activity and oil demand may be limited. The proportion of non-commercial long positions in WTI crude oil futures fell to a new low since the pandemic in July and August this year.<b>The market may have already fully (or even overpriced) the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman 2: Hurricane.</b>Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in the United States on August 29, has attracted widespread market attention. Referring to the impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017, we judge that<b>The overall impact of Hurricane Ida on oil prices was limited:</b>In the short term, it may show a slight rise due to the disruption of oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico; However, in the next 2-3 weeks, the persistent power outages in Louisiana will mainly affect the production activities of oil refineries, or weaken oil demand to some extent and have a suppressive effect on oil prices.</p><p><b>Swordsman 3: The US government is dumping its reserves.</b>On August 23, the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to sell up to 20 million barrels of the Strategic Crude Oil Reserve for delivery between October 1 and December 15 this year, the largest sale since 2011. We have analyzed the impact of six large-scale sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States since 1990 on oil prices. Overall, the sale of strategic petroleum reserves by the United States may suppress international oil prices in the short term (within six months).<b>The five sell-offs between 1991 and 2011 all caused oil prices to fall, with the largest drops in WTI and Brent oil prices ranging from 20-44% and 16-45% respectively, with intervals of about 1-3 months.</b>The scale and pace of this sale may be larger and faster than the historical average. At the same time, the possibility that the Biden administration will increase policy efforts to curb oil prices cannot be ruled out.<b>The US government's actions, such as dumping reserves, may have a significant suppressive effect on oil prices in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>Based on our overall assessment, we have lowered our international crude oil price target range for September-December 2021 to $65-75 per barrel, and do not rule out the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel in the short term. 1) Regarding demand,</b>Although the marginal impact of this round of the pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand is limited, we are more cautious in our assessment of global oil demand in the second half of the year. Furthermore, given that the COVID-19 pandemic in China is under control while the US pandemic continues to spread, Brent crude oil prices may remain relatively strong compared to WTI crude oil for the next 1-2 months.<b>2) On the supply side,</b>The US government's release of reserves will increase oil supply in October and December this year, during which time oil prices are likely to be under pressure. However, without considering the impact of the US dumping of reserves, the tight crude oil supply will remain in the second half of the year, which is the key reason why we have not significantly lowered our oil price target range.<b>3) Regarding the financial environment,</b>Even if the Federal Reserve implements Taper within the year, the US financial market may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year, and the probability of a significant strengthening of the US dollar is not high. However, it is still important to be wary of the risk of financial market volatility around the time the Federal Reserve officially announces Taper, and the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel cannot be ruled out.</p><p><b><i>Risk warning: The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic exceeded expectations, OPEC+ production increases exceeded expectations, and Federal Reserve policies exceeded expectations.</i></b></p><p><b>Since July this year, international oil prices have experienced significant downward fluctuations, driven by three key words: virus, hurricane, and the US government (Chart 1).</b></p><p>On July 5, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose to highs of $76.3 and $77.2 per barrel, respectively. But the good times didn't last long.<b>The global spread of the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus continues to cause market panic,</b>Coupled with brief disagreements between the UAE and the OPEC+ agreement, the upward trend in oil prices came to an end. Since August, international oil prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks, including<b>On August 11, the White House called on OPEC+ to increase production.</b>This exacerbated the downward trend in oil prices. On August 20, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil fell to $62.1 and $65.2 per barrel, respectively, down 19% and 16% from their highs on July 5.</p><p>In late August, a fire broke out on a drilling rig platform in Mexico.<b>Disturbance of Hurricane Ida on Oil Supply in the Gulf of Mexico, USA</b>This contributed to a strong rebound in oil prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising 11% and 13% respectively between August 23 and 30. Brent crude oil prices stabilized again at $70 per barrel, but WTI crude oil prices remained below $70 per barrel, and the price difference between the two continued to widen. On August 23,<b>The U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to sell up to 20 million barrels of its strategic crude oil reserve between October and December this year.</b>This adds uncertainty to subsequent oil price trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a2c42a831aaa0c7decefabbcc9849b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In June 2021, we predicted that international oil prices would maintain a range of $70-80 per barrel in the second half of 2021, while we did not rule out the possibility that oil prices would break through $80 per barrel in a short period of time (refer to the report \"Will Oil Prices Be the Next 'Gray Rhino'?\" dated June 30, 2021). However, the impact of the Delta variant on major oil-demanding countries such as China and the United States, the disruption of supply caused by US hurricanes, and the US government's attempt to suppress oil prices through means such as dumping reserves all exceeded our previous expectations. The aforementioned \"three musketeers\" will have a complex impact on oil prices after September this year. This article focuses on their impact and looks forward to the oil price trend in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman 1: Delta Mutant Virus</b></p><p><b>Since July of this year, the global COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened due to the Delta variant virus (Chart 2). As the world's two largest oil consumers, the impact of the pandemic on the United States and China has attracted great attention from the crude oil market.</b>In China, the number of newly confirmed local cases remained in the single digits before July, but at its peak in early August, the number of local cases increased by more than 100 per day. Against this backdrop, governments in many regions have strengthened epidemic prevention and control measures again, and the market has begun to worry about reduced transportation and other activities and a decrease in demand for related petroleum products. In particular, China's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia (seasonally adjusted) declined by 6.8% and 6.6% month-on-month in June and July, respectively, and the import volume in July was the lowest since October 2020 (Chart 3). In the United States, the number of new daily COVID-19 cases rose from less than 20,000 before July to more than 100,000 in August. The rise of the pandemic, coupled with the slow pace of vaccination, has forced the US government to delay announcing a complete reopening of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f654a9bb5e37ceec93d9aed135d3b74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Due to the disruption caused by the mutated virus, international institutions have successively lowered their crude oil demand forecasts for the second half of 2021, suppressing bullish sentiment in the crude oil futures market.</b>In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by 550,000 barrels per day and its full-year global oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 96.2 million barrels per day. The EIA and OPEC's August reports maintained their respective forecasts for world oil demand growth in 2021 and 2022, but OPEC expects demand for OPEC crude oil to decrease by 200,000 barrels per day to 27.4 million barrels per day in 2021. If we compare the EIA's forecast in August with that in June, it predicts that global consumption of petroleum products will decrease by 350,000 barrels per day and 210,000 barrels per day in November and December 2021, respectively (Chart 4). At the same time,<b>The crude oil market continues to price in a new round of pandemic impact.</b>IPE futures trading results show that since late June, the proportion of non-commercial long positions in WTI has begun to decline and continued to hit a new low since the pandemic. The sell-off by long positions has also exacerbated the decline in oil prices (Chart 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62310fd6577cecaa5c4a97fe953cbd41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>We believe that the marginal impact of the new round of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand may be limited.</b>First, global oil consumption remained strong in June and July this year despite the disruption caused by the pandemic, and the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand has not yet become apparent. Comparing the data updated by the EIA in June and August, global actual oil consumption increased more than expected in June and July this year, exceeding the June forecasts of 360,000 barrels per day and 300,000 barrels per day, respectively.<b>Second, high-frequency data shows that global transportation demand remained strong in August.</b>For example, Flightradar24 statistics show that the number of global flights did not decrease significantly during July and August, and current levels are close to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (Chart 6).<b>Third, the intensity of the current round of epidemic prevention policies in major economies is limited, which in turn has a limited impact on economic activity and oil demand.</b>Asian economies such as China and Japan have upgraded their epidemic prevention and control measures in the short term, but the intensity is still relatively limited. European and American economies such as Britain, Germany and the United States tend to \"lie flat\" under the protection of vaccines. According to calculations by Oxford University's Our World in Data website, following the outbreak of the new wave of the pandemic, the \"Stringency Index\" of government prevention and control measures in major economies has not significantly exceeded the level at the beginning of this year (Chart 7).</p><p><b>In summary, this round of the pandemic has not yet had a significant impact on global oil consumption, but it has significantly dampened demand expectations. However, the market may have already fully (or even overpriced) the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/799839faff99fbad6c6508c1dc1d4c04\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Swordsman 2: Hurricane</b></p><p><b>On August 29, Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the U.S. Gulf Coast, shutting down 90-95% of oil production offshore the Gulf Coast (involving a capacity of approximately 1.7 million barrels per day).</b>The hurricane was downgraded to a \"tropical storm\" 16 hours after making landfall, but it caused \"catastrophic\" damage to Louisiana's power grid. The power outage is expected to last for about three weeks, during which time it may lead to the shutdown of oil processing and chemical plants.</p><p><b>Historically, the impact of hurricanes on oil prices has been uncertain, as hurricanes may simultaneously affect oil supply and demand, and the U.S. government may also stabilize oil prices by selling strategic petroleum reserves.</b>Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (Category 5) and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 (Category 4) are the two hurricanes with the greatest economic impact in U.S. history. In 2005, a hurricane in the United States drove up oil prices within a week because the hurricane mainly disrupted oil production and supply; However, the U.S. government subsequently sold its strategic petroleum reserve, causing oil prices to decline for 2-3 months (Chart 8). In 2017, a U.S. hurricane caused oil prices to fall slightly within a week because the hurricane mainly affected refinery production, which meant that refineries' demand for crude oil weakened. The subsequent sale of strategic petroleum reserves did not stop the upward trend in oil prices in the second half of the year (Chart 9).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e98fbd93acc9858d4f588e1475352cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In summary, Hurricane Ida's overall impact on oil prices was limited: a slight rise may occur in the short term due to disruptions to oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico. However, in the next 2-3 weeks, the prolonged power outages in Louisiana will mainly affect the production activities of oil refineries, or weaken oil demand to some extent, which may have a certain inhibitory effect on oil prices.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman Three: US Government Dumps Reserves</b></p><p><b>On August 23, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management issued an announcement stating that it plans to finalize contracts for the sale of up to 20 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves by September 13, with deliveries scheduled between October 1 and December 15 of this year. This sale is the largest since 2011.</b></p><p><b>We have reviewed the impact of large-scale sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States since 1990 on oil prices (Chart 10).</b>Since 1990, the U.S. government has conducted six sales of strategic petroleum reserves ranging from 15 to 30 million barrels. Triggers include emergencies such as war and hurricanes, as well as easing fiscal deficits, alleviating seasonal oil shortages, or appeasing voters.</p><p><b>First, overall, the sale of strategic petroleum reserves by the United States may suppress oil prices in the short term (within six months), but it is unlikely to change the medium-term (more than six months) trend.</b>The five sell-offs between 1991 and 2011 all caused oil prices to fall, with the largest drops in WTI and Brent crude oil prices ranging from 20-44% and 16-45% respectively, with the largest drops lasting about 1-3 months, averaging 52 days. After Hurricane Harvey in 2017, oil prices rose instead of falling due to the small scale of strategic petroleum reserve sales (only 15 million barrels) and the slow pace of release (lasting about four months).</p><p><b>Second, if the scale of reserve dumping is large (such as exceeding 30 million barrels in 2000 and 2011) or the pace of selling is rapid (such as taking only two months in 1991), the corresponding oil price adjustment will be greater.</b></p><p><b>Third, the price movements of WTI and Brent oil did not diverge significantly during the US dumping of reserves, indicating that the US dumping of reserves will have a global impact on the crude oil market.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e046e19bc7f6b35c7d9957201c2eab8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd944ce72bd31291da7afd82aa39971a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>We believe that the main reason for this sale of strategic petroleum reserves is that the Biden administration hopes to curb oil prices to alleviate inflationary pressures.</b></p><p><b>First, the growth rate of oil prices is highly correlated with the trend of US inflation indicators.</b>Looking at the structure of the US CPI, according to data released by the BLS in July, the energy sub-item (including energy products and energy services) accounted for 7.2% of the US CPI, while the transportation services sub-item accounted for 5.3%. We calculate that the two factors contributed 2 percentage points to the 5.4% year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI in July. Historical data shows that the US CPI is highly correlated with the monthly year-on-year growth rate of oil prices (Chart 11), because the prices of goods and services other than energy products are generally relatively stable.</p><p><b>Secondly, Biden expressed concerns about high gasoline prices in the United States during his speech on August 11.</b>He stated that the United States will strengthen regulation of the oil market in the future and crack down on illegal activities that inflate oil prices. It is worth noting that historically, the price trends of US gasoline and crude oil have basically matched, but in 2021, the increase in US gasoline prices significantly exceeded that of crude oil. In particular, the correction in WTI crude oil prices since July did not lead to a decline in gasoline prices (Chart 12). Meanwhile, Biden addressed OPEC, stating that the production cuts implemented after the pandemic should be reversed as the global economy recovers in order to lower the consumer prices of petroleum products. U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan also stated that OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day starting in August was \"far from enough,\" and indicated that the White House was in contact with OPEC member countries regarding the importance of competitive markets, which had triggered market panic about U.S. interference in OPEC+'s production decisions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359ab0b4d89955b5d6d39ea5450d972d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In summary, if the strategic petroleum reserve sale is 20 million barrels and is to be released in less than three months, then the scale and pace of this sale will be larger and faster than the historical average. Meanwhile, considering that the Biden administration currently has a strong desire to curb oil prices to alleviate inflationary pressures, the possibility of it increasing policy efforts or introducing more measures in the future cannot be ruled out. In summary, the US government's actions, such as dumping reserves, may have a significant suppressive effect on oil prices in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>The oil price target range for September-December this year has been lowered to $65-75 per barrel.</b></p><p><b>Based on our overall assessment, we have lowered our international crude oil price target range for September-December this year to $65-75 per barrel, and we do not rule out the possibility that oil prices may fall below $65 per barrel in the short term during this period.</b></p><p><b>First, on the demand side,</b>We believe that the marginal impact of this round of the pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand is limited, but<b>We are more cautious in our assessment of global oil demand in the second half of the year.</b>Furthermore, since the epidemic in China has been brought under control while the epidemic in the United States is still spreading,<b>Brent crude oil prices are likely to remain relatively strong against WTI crude oil for the next 1-2 months.</b></p><p>Previously, the offsetting forces of \"herd immunity\" and \"pandemic counterattack\" were considered (it now seems that the force of \"pandemic counterattack\" may be stronger). We expect crude oil demand to maintain a growth rate similar to that of the first half of the year in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter of this year, there is still ample room for recovery in the service sector and related oil demand in the United States and major developed economies. However, it should be noted that summer in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the season with the strongest demand for service industries such as transportation and tourism (the number of global flights peaks between July and September each year, Chart 6). The current round of the pandemic has impacted the service sector this quarter. Therefore, even if the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic subsides in the fourth quarter, global demand for petroleum products may not recover as quickly as previously expected, as winter itself is not conducive to economic activities such as transportation.</p><p><b>Secondly, on the supply side, the US government's release of reserves will increase oil supply in October and December this year, during which time oil prices are likely to be under pressure.</b>(Furthermore, if the new wave of the pandemic in the United States is not effectively controlled in October, oil prices may fall below $65 per barrel due to negative factors related to both supply and demand.)<b>However, without considering the impact of the US dumping of reserves, the tight crude oil supply will remain in the second half of the year, which is the key reason why we have not significantly lowered our oil price target range.</b></p><p><b>We believe that the key factors limiting significant production increases by U.S. oil companies and the OPEC+ group in the second half of the year (such as repairing corporate debt or national fiscal deficits, and the need for economic transformation) remain unchanged.</b>As of now, the supply constraints in the global crude oil market are largely in line with our expectations.<b>In the United States,</b>U.S. crude oil inventories remain low, and the number of U.S. crude oil drilling rigs remains weaker than historical performance (Chart 13).<b>Regarding OPEC+,</b>On July 18, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day each month starting in August.<b>On September 1, OPEC+ announced that it would maintain its production increase plan, but the extent of this increase remained restrained.</b>OPEC production in July this year was only 26.66 million barrels per day, which is still 3.2 million barrels per day lower than the 2019 average (11% less), while the EIA statistics show that global oil consumption in July was only 2.1 million barrels per day lower than the 2019 average (only 2% less). Assuming OPEC increases production by 400,000 barrels per day per month starting in August, the increase may still be less than the increase in global oil demand (Chart 14).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad43a3241848d00f3bbe66eba485218d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Third, regarding the financial environment,</b>Although the Federal Reserve is likely to begin implementing Taper within the year (November or December), the US monetary easing environment will not tighten suddenly. In addition, the Fed is paying special attention to communication with the market in this round, and the US financial market may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year.<b>The probability of a significant strengthening of the US dollar is low.</b>(Refer to the report \"The US Dollar Next\"). However, since the August non-farm payroll data somewhat disrupted market expectations, we still need to be wary of the risk of volatility in financial markets before and after the Federal Reserve officially announces Taper. Around the time of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 22, as specific decisions regarding Taper may be announced at the meeting, a decline in risk appetite and a stronger dollar may cause oil prices to fall in the short term. At that time, the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel cannot be ruled out.</p>","source":"lsy1631857626729","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Three Musketeers\" of Crude Oil Market: Virus, Hurricane and U.S. government</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Three Musketeers\" of Crude Oil Market: Virus, Hurricane and U.S. government\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">钟正生经济研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 13:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Core Summary</b></p><p>Since July of this year, international oil prices have experienced significant downward fluctuations, driven by three key words: virus, hurricane, and the US government. The aforementioned \"three musketeers\" will have a complex impact on international oil prices after September this year. This article focuses on their impact and looks forward to the oil price trend in the second half of this year.</p><p><b>Swordsman 1: Delta variant virus.</b>Since July of this year, the global COVID-19 pandemic has worsened due to the Delta variant, affecting both the United States and China, the world's two largest oil consumers.<b>This round of the pandemic has not yet had a significant impact on global oil consumption, but it has significantly dampened demand expectations.</b>In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by 550,000 barrels per day. Considering that global oil consumption remained strong in June and July this year, global flight data showed strong demand in August, and the limited intensity of the current round of epidemic prevention policies in major economies, the marginal impact of the new round of the epidemic on global economic activity and oil demand may be limited. The proportion of non-commercial long positions in WTI crude oil futures fell to a new low since the pandemic in July and August this year.<b>The market may have already fully (or even overpriced) the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman 2: Hurricane.</b>Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in the United States on August 29, has attracted widespread market attention. Referring to the impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017, we judge that<b>The overall impact of Hurricane Ida on oil prices was limited:</b>In the short term, it may show a slight rise due to the disruption of oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico; However, in the next 2-3 weeks, the persistent power outages in Louisiana will mainly affect the production activities of oil refineries, or weaken oil demand to some extent and have a suppressive effect on oil prices.</p><p><b>Swordsman 3: The US government is dumping its reserves.</b>On August 23, the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to sell up to 20 million barrels of the Strategic Crude Oil Reserve for delivery between October 1 and December 15 this year, the largest sale since 2011. We have analyzed the impact of six large-scale sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States since 1990 on oil prices. Overall, the sale of strategic petroleum reserves by the United States may suppress international oil prices in the short term (within six months).<b>The five sell-offs between 1991 and 2011 all caused oil prices to fall, with the largest drops in WTI and Brent oil prices ranging from 20-44% and 16-45% respectively, with intervals of about 1-3 months.</b>The scale and pace of this sale may be larger and faster than the historical average. At the same time, the possibility that the Biden administration will increase policy efforts to curb oil prices cannot be ruled out.<b>The US government's actions, such as dumping reserves, may have a significant suppressive effect on oil prices in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>Based on our overall assessment, we have lowered our international crude oil price target range for September-December 2021 to $65-75 per barrel, and do not rule out the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel in the short term. 1) Regarding demand,</b>Although the marginal impact of this round of the pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand is limited, we are more cautious in our assessment of global oil demand in the second half of the year. Furthermore, given that the COVID-19 pandemic in China is under control while the US pandemic continues to spread, Brent crude oil prices may remain relatively strong compared to WTI crude oil for the next 1-2 months.<b>2) On the supply side,</b>The US government's release of reserves will increase oil supply in October and December this year, during which time oil prices are likely to be under pressure. However, without considering the impact of the US dumping of reserves, the tight crude oil supply will remain in the second half of the year, which is the key reason why we have not significantly lowered our oil price target range.<b>3) Regarding the financial environment,</b>Even if the Federal Reserve implements Taper within the year, the US financial market may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year, and the probability of a significant strengthening of the US dollar is not high. However, it is still important to be wary of the risk of financial market volatility around the time the Federal Reserve officially announces Taper, and the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel cannot be ruled out.</p><p><b><i>Risk warning: The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic exceeded expectations, OPEC+ production increases exceeded expectations, and Federal Reserve policies exceeded expectations.</i></b></p><p><b>Since July this year, international oil prices have experienced significant downward fluctuations, driven by three key words: virus, hurricane, and the US government (Chart 1).</b></p><p>On July 5, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose to highs of $76.3 and $77.2 per barrel, respectively. But the good times didn't last long.<b>The global spread of the Delta variant of the novel coronavirus continues to cause market panic,</b>Coupled with brief disagreements between the UAE and the OPEC+ agreement, the upward trend in oil prices came to an end. Since August, international oil prices have fallen for three consecutive weeks, including<b>On August 11, the White House called on OPEC+ to increase production.</b>This exacerbated the downward trend in oil prices. On August 20, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil fell to $62.1 and $65.2 per barrel, respectively, down 19% and 16% from their highs on July 5.</p><p>In late August, a fire broke out on a drilling rig platform in Mexico.<b>Disturbance of Hurricane Ida on Oil Supply in the Gulf of Mexico, USA</b>This contributed to a strong rebound in oil prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising 11% and 13% respectively between August 23 and 30. Brent crude oil prices stabilized again at $70 per barrel, but WTI crude oil prices remained below $70 per barrel, and the price difference between the two continued to widen. On August 23,<b>The U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to sell up to 20 million barrels of its strategic crude oil reserve between October and December this year.</b>This adds uncertainty to subsequent oil price trends.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4a2c42a831aaa0c7decefabbcc9849b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In June 2021, we predicted that international oil prices would maintain a range of $70-80 per barrel in the second half of 2021, while we did not rule out the possibility that oil prices would break through $80 per barrel in a short period of time (refer to the report \"Will Oil Prices Be the Next 'Gray Rhino'?\" dated June 30, 2021). However, the impact of the Delta variant on major oil-demanding countries such as China and the United States, the disruption of supply caused by US hurricanes, and the US government's attempt to suppress oil prices through means such as dumping reserves all exceeded our previous expectations. The aforementioned \"three musketeers\" will have a complex impact on oil prices after September this year. This article focuses on their impact and looks forward to the oil price trend in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman 1: Delta Mutant Virus</b></p><p><b>Since July of this year, the global COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened due to the Delta variant virus (Chart 2). As the world's two largest oil consumers, the impact of the pandemic on the United States and China has attracted great attention from the crude oil market.</b>In China, the number of newly confirmed local cases remained in the single digits before July, but at its peak in early August, the number of local cases increased by more than 100 per day. Against this backdrop, governments in many regions have strengthened epidemic prevention and control measures again, and the market has begun to worry about reduced transportation and other activities and a decrease in demand for related petroleum products. In particular, China's crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia (seasonally adjusted) declined by 6.8% and 6.6% month-on-month in June and July, respectively, and the import volume in July was the lowest since October 2020 (Chart 3). In the United States, the number of new daily COVID-19 cases rose from less than 20,000 before July to more than 100,000 in August. The rise of the pandemic, coupled with the slow pace of vaccination, has forced the US government to delay announcing a complete reopening of the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f654a9bb5e37ceec93d9aed135d3b74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Due to the disruption caused by the mutated virus, international institutions have successively lowered their crude oil demand forecasts for the second half of 2021, suppressing bullish sentiment in the crude oil futures market.</b>In its August report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its crude oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021 by 550,000 barrels per day and its full-year global oil demand forecast by 100,000 barrels per day to 96.2 million barrels per day. The EIA and OPEC's August reports maintained their respective forecasts for world oil demand growth in 2021 and 2022, but OPEC expects demand for OPEC crude oil to decrease by 200,000 barrels per day to 27.4 million barrels per day in 2021. If we compare the EIA's forecast in August with that in June, it predicts that global consumption of petroleum products will decrease by 350,000 barrels per day and 210,000 barrels per day in November and December 2021, respectively (Chart 4). At the same time,<b>The crude oil market continues to price in a new round of pandemic impact.</b>IPE futures trading results show that since late June, the proportion of non-commercial long positions in WTI has begun to decline and continued to hit a new low since the pandemic. The sell-off by long positions has also exacerbated the decline in oil prices (Chart 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62310fd6577cecaa5c4a97fe953cbd41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>We believe that the marginal impact of the new round of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand may be limited.</b>First, global oil consumption remained strong in June and July this year despite the disruption caused by the pandemic, and the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand has not yet become apparent. Comparing the data updated by the EIA in June and August, global actual oil consumption increased more than expected in June and July this year, exceeding the June forecasts of 360,000 barrels per day and 300,000 barrels per day, respectively.<b>Second, high-frequency data shows that global transportation demand remained strong in August.</b>For example, Flightradar24 statistics show that the number of global flights did not decrease significantly during July and August, and current levels are close to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 (Chart 6).<b>Third, the intensity of the current round of epidemic prevention policies in major economies is limited, which in turn has a limited impact on economic activity and oil demand.</b>Asian economies such as China and Japan have upgraded their epidemic prevention and control measures in the short term, but the intensity is still relatively limited. European and American economies such as Britain, Germany and the United States tend to \"lie flat\" under the protection of vaccines. According to calculations by Oxford University's Our World in Data website, following the outbreak of the new wave of the pandemic, the \"Stringency Index\" of government prevention and control measures in major economies has not significantly exceeded the level at the beginning of this year (Chart 7).</p><p><b>In summary, this round of the pandemic has not yet had a significant impact on global oil consumption, but it has significantly dampened demand expectations. However, the market may have already fully (or even overpriced) the impact of this round of the pandemic on oil demand in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/799839faff99fbad6c6508c1dc1d4c04\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Swordsman 2: Hurricane</b></p><p><b>On August 29, Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 hurricane, struck the U.S. Gulf Coast, shutting down 90-95% of oil production offshore the Gulf Coast (involving a capacity of approximately 1.7 million barrels per day).</b>The hurricane was downgraded to a \"tropical storm\" 16 hours after making landfall, but it caused \"catastrophic\" damage to Louisiana's power grid. The power outage is expected to last for about three weeks, during which time it may lead to the shutdown of oil processing and chemical plants.</p><p><b>Historically, the impact of hurricanes on oil prices has been uncertain, as hurricanes may simultaneously affect oil supply and demand, and the U.S. government may also stabilize oil prices by selling strategic petroleum reserves.</b>Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (Category 5) and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 (Category 4) are the two hurricanes with the greatest economic impact in U.S. history. In 2005, a hurricane in the United States drove up oil prices within a week because the hurricane mainly disrupted oil production and supply; However, the U.S. government subsequently sold its strategic petroleum reserve, causing oil prices to decline for 2-3 months (Chart 8). In 2017, a U.S. hurricane caused oil prices to fall slightly within a week because the hurricane mainly affected refinery production, which meant that refineries' demand for crude oil weakened. The subsequent sale of strategic petroleum reserves did not stop the upward trend in oil prices in the second half of the year (Chart 9).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e98fbd93acc9858d4f588e1475352cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In summary, Hurricane Ida's overall impact on oil prices was limited: a slight rise may occur in the short term due to disruptions to oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico. However, in the next 2-3 weeks, the prolonged power outages in Louisiana will mainly affect the production activities of oil refineries, or weaken oil demand to some extent, which may have a certain inhibitory effect on oil prices.</b></p><p><b>Swordsman Three: US Government Dumps Reserves</b></p><p><b>On August 23, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management issued an announcement stating that it plans to finalize contracts for the sale of up to 20 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves by September 13, with deliveries scheduled between October 1 and December 15 of this year. This sale is the largest since 2011.</b></p><p><b>We have reviewed the impact of large-scale sales of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the United States since 1990 on oil prices (Chart 10).</b>Since 1990, the U.S. government has conducted six sales of strategic petroleum reserves ranging from 15 to 30 million barrels. Triggers include emergencies such as war and hurricanes, as well as easing fiscal deficits, alleviating seasonal oil shortages, or appeasing voters.</p><p><b>First, overall, the sale of strategic petroleum reserves by the United States may suppress oil prices in the short term (within six months), but it is unlikely to change the medium-term (more than six months) trend.</b>The five sell-offs between 1991 and 2011 all caused oil prices to fall, with the largest drops in WTI and Brent crude oil prices ranging from 20-44% and 16-45% respectively, with the largest drops lasting about 1-3 months, averaging 52 days. After Hurricane Harvey in 2017, oil prices rose instead of falling due to the small scale of strategic petroleum reserve sales (only 15 million barrels) and the slow pace of release (lasting about four months).</p><p><b>Second, if the scale of reserve dumping is large (such as exceeding 30 million barrels in 2000 and 2011) or the pace of selling is rapid (such as taking only two months in 1991), the corresponding oil price adjustment will be greater.</b></p><p><b>Third, the price movements of WTI and Brent oil did not diverge significantly during the US dumping of reserves, indicating that the US dumping of reserves will have a global impact on the crude oil market.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e046e19bc7f6b35c7d9957201c2eab8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd944ce72bd31291da7afd82aa39971a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"761\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>We believe that the main reason for this sale of strategic petroleum reserves is that the Biden administration hopes to curb oil prices to alleviate inflationary pressures.</b></p><p><b>First, the growth rate of oil prices is highly correlated with the trend of US inflation indicators.</b>Looking at the structure of the US CPI, according to data released by the BLS in July, the energy sub-item (including energy products and energy services) accounted for 7.2% of the US CPI, while the transportation services sub-item accounted for 5.3%. We calculate that the two factors contributed 2 percentage points to the 5.4% year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI in July. Historical data shows that the US CPI is highly correlated with the monthly year-on-year growth rate of oil prices (Chart 11), because the prices of goods and services other than energy products are generally relatively stable.</p><p><b>Secondly, Biden expressed concerns about high gasoline prices in the United States during his speech on August 11.</b>He stated that the United States will strengthen regulation of the oil market in the future and crack down on illegal activities that inflate oil prices. It is worth noting that historically, the price trends of US gasoline and crude oil have basically matched, but in 2021, the increase in US gasoline prices significantly exceeded that of crude oil. In particular, the correction in WTI crude oil prices since July did not lead to a decline in gasoline prices (Chart 12). Meanwhile, Biden addressed OPEC, stating that the production cuts implemented after the pandemic should be reversed as the global economy recovers in order to lower the consumer prices of petroleum products. U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan also stated that OPEC+'s plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day starting in August was \"far from enough,\" and indicated that the White House was in contact with OPEC member countries regarding the importance of competitive markets, which had triggered market panic about U.S. interference in OPEC+'s production decisions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359ab0b4d89955b5d6d39ea5450d972d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>In summary, if the strategic petroleum reserve sale is 20 million barrels and is to be released in less than three months, then the scale and pace of this sale will be larger and faster than the historical average. Meanwhile, considering that the Biden administration currently has a strong desire to curb oil prices to alleviate inflationary pressures, the possibility of it increasing policy efforts or introducing more measures in the future cannot be ruled out. In summary, the US government's actions, such as dumping reserves, may have a significant suppressive effect on oil prices in the second half of this year.</b></p><p><b>The oil price target range for September-December this year has been lowered to $65-75 per barrel.</b></p><p><b>Based on our overall assessment, we have lowered our international crude oil price target range for September-December this year to $65-75 per barrel, and we do not rule out the possibility that oil prices may fall below $65 per barrel in the short term during this period.</b></p><p><b>First, on the demand side,</b>We believe that the marginal impact of this round of the pandemic on global economic activity and oil demand is limited, but<b>We are more cautious in our assessment of global oil demand in the second half of the year.</b>Furthermore, since the epidemic in China has been brought under control while the epidemic in the United States is still spreading,<b>Brent crude oil prices are likely to remain relatively strong against WTI crude oil for the next 1-2 months.</b></p><p>Previously, the offsetting forces of \"herd immunity\" and \"pandemic counterattack\" were considered (it now seems that the force of \"pandemic counterattack\" may be stronger). We expect crude oil demand to maintain a growth rate similar to that of the first half of the year in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter of this year, there is still ample room for recovery in the service sector and related oil demand in the United States and major developed economies. However, it should be noted that summer in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the season with the strongest demand for service industries such as transportation and tourism (the number of global flights peaks between July and September each year, Chart 6). The current round of the pandemic has impacted the service sector this quarter. Therefore, even if the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic subsides in the fourth quarter, global demand for petroleum products may not recover as quickly as previously expected, as winter itself is not conducive to economic activities such as transportation.</p><p><b>Secondly, on the supply side, the US government's release of reserves will increase oil supply in October and December this year, during which time oil prices are likely to be under pressure.</b>(Furthermore, if the new wave of the pandemic in the United States is not effectively controlled in October, oil prices may fall below $65 per barrel due to negative factors related to both supply and demand.)<b>However, without considering the impact of the US dumping of reserves, the tight crude oil supply will remain in the second half of the year, which is the key reason why we have not significantly lowered our oil price target range.</b></p><p><b>We believe that the key factors limiting significant production increases by U.S. oil companies and the OPEC+ group in the second half of the year (such as repairing corporate debt or national fiscal deficits, and the need for economic transformation) remain unchanged.</b>As of now, the supply constraints in the global crude oil market are largely in line with our expectations.<b>In the United States,</b>U.S. crude oil inventories remain low, and the number of U.S. crude oil drilling rigs remains weaker than historical performance (Chart 13).<b>Regarding OPEC+,</b>On July 18, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day each month starting in August.<b>On September 1, OPEC+ announced that it would maintain its production increase plan, but the extent of this increase remained restrained.</b>OPEC production in July this year was only 26.66 million barrels per day, which is still 3.2 million barrels per day lower than the 2019 average (11% less), while the EIA statistics show that global oil consumption in July was only 2.1 million barrels per day lower than the 2019 average (only 2% less). Assuming OPEC increases production by 400,000 barrels per day per month starting in August, the increase may still be less than the increase in global oil demand (Chart 14).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad43a3241848d00f3bbe66eba485218d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>Third, regarding the financial environment,</b>Although the Federal Reserve is likely to begin implementing Taper within the year (November or December), the US monetary easing environment will not tighten suddenly. In addition, the Fed is paying special attention to communication with the market in this round, and the US financial market may remain relatively stable in the second half of the year.<b>The probability of a significant strengthening of the US dollar is low.</b>(Refer to the report \"The US Dollar Next\"). However, since the August non-farm payroll data somewhat disrupted market expectations, we still need to be wary of the risk of volatility in financial markets before and after the Federal Reserve officially announces Taper. Around the time of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 22, as specific decisions regarding Taper may be announced at the meeting, a decline in risk appetite and a stronger dollar may cause oil prices to fall in the short term. At that time, the possibility of oil prices falling below $65 per barrel cannot be ruled out.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AVil3ZOAN09SphKITpHHrQ\">钟正生经济研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/692502bb8980265a56b3787aba9119b3","relate_stocks":{"DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/AVil3ZOAN09SphKITpHHrQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168523595","content_text":"核心摘要\n今年7月以来，国际油价经历大幅震荡下行，这背后有三个关键词——病毒、飓风和美国政府。上述“三剑客”将对今年9月以后的国际油价产生复杂影响，本文重点讨论其影响并再次展望今年下半年油价走势。\n剑客一：Delta变异病毒。今年7月以后，全球新冠疫情因Delta变异病毒而进一步恶化，美国和中国作为全球前两大石油消费国均受影响。本轮疫情暂时仍未对全球石油消费造成明显冲击，但显著打击了需求预期。国际能源署（IEA）8月报告中，将2021年下半年原油需求预估下调55万桶/日。考虑到，今年6-7月全球石油消费维持强劲、全球航班数据显示8月需求不弱、主要经济体本轮防疫政策力度有限等，新一轮疫情对全球经济活动及石油需求的边际影响或有限。今年7-8月WTI原油期货非商业多头占比下滑至疫情以来新低。目前市场可能已经充分（甚至过度）pricein本轮疫情对于下半年石油需求的冲击。\n剑客二：飓风。8月29日登陆美国的艾达飓风广受市场关注。参考2005年卡特里娜飓风和2017年哈维飓风的影响，我们判断，本次艾达飓风对油价的影响整体有限：短期或表现为小幅拉升，因墨西哥湾石油生产活动受阻；但在未来的2-3周，路易斯安那州的持续性停电将主要影响石油加工厂的生产活动，或一定程度上减弱石油需求并对油价形成一定抑制作用。\n剑客三：美国政府抛储。8月23日美国能源部宣布拟至多出售2000万桶战略原油储备，于今年10月1日至12月15日之间交付，出售规模为2011年以来最高。我们梳理了1990年以来美国6次大规模出售战略石油储备对油价的影响。整体来看，美国出售战略石油储备或短期（半年内）抑制国际油价。1991年-2011年期间的五次出售均造成了油价下跌，WTI和布伦特油价最大跌幅分别为20-44%和16-45%区间，时间间隔在1-3个月左右。本次出售的规模和节奏或将大于和快于历史平均水平。同时，不排除拜登政府后续加大政策力度以抑制油价的可能性。美国政府抛储等行动可能对今年下半年油价形成较为明显的抑制作用。\n综合判断，我们下调2021年9-12月国际原油价格目标区间至65-75美元/桶区间，且不排除油价短期下探至65美元/桶下方的可能性。1）需求方面，虽然本轮疫情对全球经济活动和石油需求的边际影响有限，但我们对下半年全球石油需求的判断更加谨慎。此外，由于中国疫情已经控制而美国疫情仍在蔓延，布伦特原油价格可能在未来1-2个月仍保持对WTI原油的相对强势。2）供给方面，美国政府抛储将提高今年10-12月的石油供给，期间油价大概率承压。但若不考虑美国抛储的影响，下半年原油供给偏紧的格局仍将维持，这也是我们并未大幅下调油价目标区间的关键原因。3）金融环境方面，即使美联储在年内实施Taper，下半年美国金融市场或保持相对稳定，美元大幅走强的概率也不高。不过，仍需警惕的是，美联储正式宣布Taper前后金融市场的波动风险，届时不能排除油价跌破65美元/桶的可能性。\n风险提示：全球新冠疫情影响超预期，OPEC+增产幅度超预期，美联储政策超预期。\n今年7月以来，国际油价经历大幅震荡下行，这背后有三个关键词——病毒、飓风和美国政府（图表1）。\n7月5日，WTI原油和布伦特油价分别涨至76.3和77.2美元/桶的高位。但好景不长，Delta新冠变异病毒的全球扩散持续引发市场恐慌，叠加阿联酋与OPEC+协议出现短暂分歧，致使油价上行趋势终结。8月以来，国际油价连续三周下跌，其中8月11日美国白宫呼吁OPEC+增产，加剧了油价的下行趋势。8月20日WTI原油和布伦特原油分别跌至62.1和65.2美元/桶，距离7月5日高点分别下跌19%和16%。\n8月下旬，墨西哥钻机平台火灾与美国墨西哥湾“艾达”飓风对石油供给的扰动，助力油价强力反弹，WTI原油和布伦特原油在8月23-30日期间分别涨11%和13%，布伦特油价重新企稳于70美元/桶，但WTI油价持续低于70美元/桶，二者价差不断拉大。8月23日，美国能源部宣布拟于今年10-12月出售至多2000万桶战略原油储备，又为后续油价走势增添变数。\n\n我们在2021年6月判断，2021年下半年国际油价主要维持在70-80美元/桶区间，同时不排除油价短时间升破80美元/桶的可能（参考2021年6月30日报告《油价会不会是下一个“灰犀牛”？》）。但Delta变异病毒对中美等石油需求大国的冲击、美国飓风对供给的扰动、以及美国政府通过抛储等手段企图抑制油价，这些均超出我们此前的预期。上述“三剑客”将对今年9月以后的油价产生复杂影响，本文重点讨论其影响并再次展望今年下半年油价走势。\n剑客一：Delta变异病毒\n今年7月以后，全球新冠疫情因Delta变异病毒而进一步恶化（图表2），其中美国和中国作为全球前两大石油消费国，其疫情影响受到原油市场高度关注。中国方面，7月以前本土新增确诊数基本保持个位数，但8月上旬最严重时本土病例日增破百。在此背景下，多地政府重新加强防疫管控，市场开始担忧交通出行等活动减少及相关石油产品需求的减少。尤其是，6月和7月中国自沙特进口原油数量（季调）环比连续下滑6.8%和6.6%，且7月进口数量为2020年10月以来新低（图表3）。美国方面，新冠单日新增确诊数从7月以前的2万人以下，升至8月的10万人以上。疫情抬头叠加疫苗接种速度缓慢，使美国政府不得不推迟宣布经济的彻底解封。\n\n因变异病毒扰动，国际机构陆续下调2021年下半年原油需求预测，期货市场做多原油情绪受到抑制。国际能源署（IEA）在8月报告中将2021年下半年原油需求预估下调55万桶/日，将全年全球石油需求下调10万桶/日至9620万桶/日。EIA和OPEC的8月报告保持各自对2021年和2022年世界石油需求增长预测不变，但欧佩克预计2021年对欧佩克原油的需求将减少20万桶/日至2740万桶/日。若将EIA在8月的预测与6月比较，其预测2021年11月和12月全球石油产品消费量分别减少了35万桶/日和21万桶/日（图表4）。同时，原油市场持续price in新一轮疫情冲击，IPE期货交易结果显示，6月下旬以来，WTI非商业多头占比开始下滑，并继续创下疫情以来新低，多头的抛售也加剧了油价的下行（图表5）。\n\n我们判断，新一轮新冠疫情对全球经济活动及石油需求的边际影响可能有限。第一，今年6、7月全球石油消费在疫情扰动下维持强劲，本轮疫情对石油需求的冲击尚未显现。对比EIA在6月和8月更新的数据，今年6、7月全球石油实际消费量反而超预期增加，分别超过6月预测值36万桶/日和30万/桶日。第二，高频数据显示8月全球交通需求不弱。例如，Flightradar24统计的全球航班数在7月和8月期间并未大幅减少，且当前水平已经接近2019年疫情前的水平（图表6）。第三，主要经济体本轮防疫政策力度有限，继而对经济活动和石油需求的影响有限。中国、日本等亚洲经济体短期升级了防疫管控，但力度仍较有限；英国、德国和美国等欧美经济体在疫苗保护下趋于“躺平”。据牛津大学Our World in Data网站测算，新一轮疫情爆发后，主要经济体政府防控疫情的“严格指数”（Stringency Index）并未显著超过今年年初水平（图表7）。\n总之，本轮疫情暂时仍未对全球石油消费造成明显冲击，但显著打击了需求预期。不过，目前市场可能已经充分（甚至过度）price in本轮疫情对于下半年石油需求的冲击。\n\n剑客二：飓风\n8月29日，美国墨西哥湾地区遭遇四级飓风“艾达”，导致墨西哥湾近海90-95%的石油生产关闭（涉及产能约170万桶/日）。该飓风在登陆16小时后降级为“热带风暴”，但其对路易斯安那州的电网造成“灾难性”破坏。预计停电将持续3周左右，期间或导致石油加工和化工厂停产。\n历史上，飓风对油价的影响并不确定，因飓风可能同时影响石油供需，且美国政府还可能通过出售战略石油储备以平抑油价。2005年“卡特里娜”飓风（五级）和2017年哈维飓风（四级）是美国历史上对经济影响最大的两次飓风。2005年美国飓风在一周内拉升油价，因飓风主要破坏了石油生产和供给；但美国政府随后出售战略石油储备，令油价持续2-3个月下行（图表8）。2017年美国飓风在一周内使油价小幅下跌，原因是飓风主要影响炼油厂生产，意味着炼油厂对原油的需求减弱；而随后战略石油储备的出售并未阻止下半年油价上行趋势（图表9）。\n\n总之，本次艾达飓风对油价的影响整体有限：短期或表现为小幅拉升，因墨西哥湾石油生产活动受阻；但在未来的2-3周，路易斯安那州的持续性停电将主要影响石油加工厂的生产活动，或一定程度上减弱石油需求，这或对油价形成一定抑制作用。\n剑客三：美国政府抛储\n8月23日，美国能源部化石能源和碳管理办公室发布公告，计划在9月13日之前确定至多出售2000万桶战略原油储备的合同，并于今年10月1日至12月15日之间交付。这次出售规模为2011年以来最高。\n我们梳理了1990年以来美国历次大规模出售战略石油储备对油价的影响（图表10）。1990年以来美国政府进行过6次规模在1500-3000万桶的战略石油储备出售，触发因素包括战争、飓风等紧急事件，以及缓解财政赤字、缓解季节性用油紧张、或讨好选民等。\n第一，整体来看，美国出售战略石油储备或短期（半年内）抑制油价，但难改中期（半年以上）趋势。1991年-2011年期间的五次出售均造成了油价下跌，WTI和布伦特油价最大跌幅分别为20-44%和16-45%区间，最大跌幅时间间隔在1-3个月左右、平均为52天。而2017年哈维飓风后，由于战略石油储备出售规模较小（仅1500万桶）、且释放节奏较慢（持续约4个月），油价不跌反涨。\n第二，如果抛储规模较大（如2000年和2011年均超过3000万桶）或者抛售节奏较快（如1991年仅耗时2个月），则相应油价调整幅度也越大。\n第三，美国抛储期间的WTI和布伦特油价走势并未发生明显背离，说明美国抛储将对原油市场产生全球性的影响。\n\n我们认为，本次战略石油储备出售的主要原因在于，拜登政府希望抑制油价以缓解通胀压力。\n首先，油价增速与美国通胀指标走势高度相关。从美国CPI的结构出发，据BLS在7月公布的数据，能源分项（包括能源品和能源服务）占美国CPI的比重为7.2%，交通运输服务分项占比5.3%。我们测算，在7月美国CPI同比增速的5.4%中，二者合计拉动就有了2个百分点。历史数据显示，美国CPI与油价月度同比增速走势高度相关（图表11），因为除能源品外的其他商品和服务价格通常是相对稳定的。\n其次，8月11日拜登演讲时表达了对美国汽油价格高企的担忧。他表示，未来美国将加强对石油市场的监管，打击哄抬油价的违法行为。注意到，历史上美国汽油和原油价格走势基本匹配，但2021年美国汽油价格涨幅明显超过原油，尤其7月以来WTI原油价格回调并未带动汽油价格回落（图表12）。同时，拜登“喊话”OPEC称，疫情后实施的减产计划应该随着全球经济复苏而扭转，以降低石油产品消费价格。美国国家安全顾问沙利文当日也表示，OPEC+计划自8月开始逐月增产40万桶/日“远远不够”，且表示白宫正在就竞争性市场的重要性与欧佩克成员国进行接触，这一度引发市场对于美国干预OPEC+生产决策的恐慌。\n\n总之，如果本次战略石油储备出售规模为2000万桶，且将于不到3个月的时间里释放，那么这次出售的规模和节奏将大于和快于历史平均水平。同时考虑到，拜登政府当前有强烈意愿抑制油价以缓解通胀压力，不排除其后续加大政策力度或出台更多措施的可能性。综合来看，美国政府抛储等行动，可能对今年下半年油价形成较为明显的抑制作用。\n下调今年9-12月油价目标区间至65-75美元/桶\n综合判断，我们下调今年9-12月国际原油价格目标区间至65-75美元/桶区间，且不排除在此期间油价短期下探至65美元/桶下方的可能性。\n第一，需求方面，我们认为本轮疫情对全球经济活动和石油需求的边际影响有限，但我们对下半年全球石油需求的判断更加谨慎。此外，由于中国疫情已经控制而美国疫情仍在蔓延，布伦特原油价格可能在未来1-2个月仍保持对WTI原油的相对强势。\n此前，考虑到“群体免疫”和“疫情反扑”两股力量的对冲（目前看来，“疫情反扑”的力量可能会更强一些）。我们预计原油需求在下半年或保持与上半年相近的增长速度。今年四季度，美国及主要发达经济体服务业以及相关石油需求仍有充分复苏空间。但需要注意，北半球夏季通常是交通运输、旅游业等服务业需求最旺盛的季节（全球航班数量在每年7-9月达到峰值，图表6）。而本轮疫情影响了本季度的服务业，所以即使四季度新冠疫情影响消退，由于冬季本身并不利于交通出行等经济活动的开展，因此全球石油产品需求或难如此前预期得那样快速修复。\n第二，供给方面，美国政府抛储将提高今年10-12月的石油供给，期间油价大概率承压。（且若10月美国新一轮疫情仍未得到有效控制，油价可能因供需双重利空而跌破65美元/桶。）但若不考虑美国抛储的影响，下半年原油供给偏紧的格局仍将维持，这也是我们并未大幅下调油价目标区间的关键原因。\n我们认为，下半年限制美国石油企业和OPEC+集团大幅增产的关键因素（修复企业负债或国家财政赤字、经济转型需求等）不变。截至目前，全球原油市场“供给约束”情况基本符合我们的预期。美国方面，美国原油库存仍然维持低位，美国原油钻机数量仍然弱于历史表现（图表13）；OPEC+方面，7月18日OPEC+同意自8月开始逐月增产40万桶/日，9月1日OPEC+宣布维持增产计划不变，但这一幅度仍然是克制的。今年7月OPEC产量仅2666万桶/日，比2019年平均水平相比仍有320万桶/日的差距（少11%），而EIA统计的7月全球石油消费量与2019年均值的差距仅为210万桶/日（仅少2%）。假设OPEC自8月开始每月增产40万桶/日，其增产幅度或仍不及全球石油需求的增加（图表14）。\n\n第三，金融环境方面，虽然美联储大概率在年内（11或12月）开始实施Taper，但美国货币宽松环境不会骤然收紧，加上本轮美联储格外注重与市场的沟通，下半年美国金融市场或保持相对稳定，美元大幅走强的概率不大（参考报告《美元下一步》）。不过，由于8月非农数据一定程度干扰了市场预期，仍需警惕美联储正式宣布Taper前后金融市场的波动风险。9月22日美联储议息会议前后，由于本次会议可能宣布有关Taper的具体决策，风险偏好回落和美元走强或使油价短期下挫，届时不能排除油价跌破65美元/桶的可能性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DWT":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"USO":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811724402,"gmtCreate":1630361058406,"gmtModify":1676530277999,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811724402","repostId":"1191822782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191822782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630287604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191822782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Mode Change\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191822782","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting brought relief to the market. More importantly, the Fed sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States has begun to end stimulus.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao summarized that Powell's speech had four key points:</p><p>(1) Taper will start within the year, but the specific time and pace of Taper have not been clearly defined, which is a dovish approach. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean that preparations for a rate hike have begun. The condition for rate hike is set at full employment. The Federal Reserve intends to decouple Taper from further tightening. (3) Substantial progress has been made in the recovery of inflation; Significant progress has been made in employment recovery, but the unemployment rate remains too high, and the Delta outbreak has increased the risks to economic recovery. (4) Reflections from 1950: Do not try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap remains large, and the pandemic continues, as temporary inflationary tightening can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more important than the dovish statements is that the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of advancing Taper, which includes three aspects:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to achieve rate hike. The condition for Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition for rate hike is full employment. The Federal Reserve downplayed the significance of Taper in signaling subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave a clear signal from Taper and acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying the significance of Taper in changing the investment clock (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operations have recently remained above $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stages of Taper. Therefore, a clear Taper signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or a change in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the market in the short to medium term.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper does not even mean that the United States has begun to end stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the near future, rather than saying that the United States will see policy tightening, it is more accurate to say that the United States is in a window of opportunity for a \"shift in stimulus methods\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and excess interbank liquidity indicates that further easing is unnecessary. Fiscal policy is certainly more effective in addressing the problem of uneven recovery:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization remains in place, and the coming period will be a testing period for the effectiveness of US fiscal policy. This may still require a low-interest-rate environment and a generally loose interbank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current US policy as a \"shift in stimulus methods\" rather than a \"loose exit\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Mode Change\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Mode Change\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 09:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting brought relief to the market. More importantly, the Fed sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States has begun to end stimulus.</p><p>according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao summarized that Powell's speech had four key points:</p><p>(1) Taper will start within the year, but the specific time and pace of Taper have not been clearly defined, which is a dovish approach. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean that preparations for a rate hike have begun. The condition for rate hike is set at full employment. The Federal Reserve intends to decouple Taper from further tightening. (3) Substantial progress has been made in the recovery of inflation; Significant progress has been made in employment recovery, but the unemployment rate remains too high, and the Delta outbreak has increased the risks to economic recovery. (4) Reflections from 1950: Do not try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap remains large, and the pandemic continues, as temporary inflationary tightening can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more important than the dovish statements is that the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of advancing Taper, which includes three aspects:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to achieve rate hike. The condition for Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition for rate hike is full employment. The Federal Reserve downplayed the significance of Taper in signaling subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave a clear signal from Taper and acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying the significance of Taper in changing the investment clock (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operations have recently remained above $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stages of Taper. Therefore, a clear Taper signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or a change in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the market in the short to medium term.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper does not even mean that the United States has begun to end stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the near future, rather than saying that the United States will see policy tightening, it is more accurate to say that the United States is in a window of opportunity for a \"shift in stimulus methods\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and excess interbank liquidity indicates that further easing is unnecessary. Fiscal policy is certainly more effective in addressing the problem of uneven recovery:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization remains in place, and the coming period will be a testing period for the effectiveness of US fiscal policy. This may still require a low-interest-rate environment and a generally loose interbank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current US policy as a \"shift in stimulus methods\" rather than a \"loose exit\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191822782","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让Taper与后续进一步紧缩脱钩。\n\n\n (3)通胀回升“已取得实质性进展”；就业恢复也取得明显进展，但失业率依然过高，Delta疫情增加了经济恢复的风险。\n\n\n (4) 1950 年的思考：不要试图抵消临时性的通胀波动。如今，劳动力市场缺口仍较大，疫情仍在继续，因为临时性通胀紧缩可能特别有害。\n\n傅静涛指出，比鸽派表态更重要的是，美联储似乎已经成功淡化了推进Taper的意义，包含三个层面：\n\n (1)能Taper不意味着能加息，Taper 的条件是就业市场恢复，而加息的条件是完全就业。美联储淡化Taper 对于后续紧缩的信号意义。\n\n\n (2)美联储给出Taper明确信号+承认当前经济不确定性，淡化了Taper对投资时钟转换的意义(从类滞胀到过热)。在美国银行间有大量冗余流动性(美联储逆回购操作量近期保持在每天 1 万亿美元以上)的情况下，Taper初期，流动性环境仍将保持宽松。所以，不指向后续紧缩、不指向投资时钟变化的Taper明确信号可能无法成为中短期市场的主要矛盾。\n\n\n\n\n\n (3) Taper 甚至不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n\n傅静涛认为，未来一段时间，与其说美国将迎来政策收紧，不如说美国处于“刺激方式转换”的窗口期。类滞胀的环境下，货币政策的有效性下降，银行间流动性冗余也指示后续没必要进一步宽松。解决复苏不平衡的问题，更有效的肯定是财政政策：\n\n 财政货币化的机制犹在，而未来一段时间，恰恰就是美国财政政策发力的验证期，这可能仍需要低利率环境，以及总体宽松的银行间流动性环境相配合。所以，我们将当前美国政策定位为“刺激方式转换”而非“宽松退出”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167241207,"gmtCreate":1624273506409,"gmtModify":1703832112030,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167241207","repostId":"1115796699","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885702013,"gmtCreate":1631831920532,"gmtModify":1676530645127,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/885702013","repostId":"1131674317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131674317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631760754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131674317?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-16 10:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SpaceX conducts its first \"all-civilian\" Space tour! How significant is it?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131674317","media":"腾讯","summary":"这是自2009年以来，再次有人类超过距离地面500公里的高度。","content":"<p>Author: Qiao Hui</p><p>At approximately 8:00 AM Beijing time on September 16, 2021, SpaceX conducted its first \"all-civilian\" space tourism launch from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, USA. Currently, the spacecraft has successfully entered orbit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7874305c006a53f849beceaa6cdb02ac\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the plan, four space tourists will be taken to an orbit 575 kilometers above the Earth to orbit the Earth for a three-day space tourism trip.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfabef3c105526241030c5858313cfc\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Four space tourists, from left to right: Hayley Archer, Sean Proctor, Jared Isaacman, and Chris Sembrowski.</p><p>The launch mission is named \"Inspiration 4,\" and all four tickets were purchased with funds from 38-year-old billionaire and American e-commerce tycoon Jared Isaacman. I haven't noticed a detailed disclosure of the exact cost yet.</p><p>Isaacman gave two of the tickets to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, which gave one to 29-year-old physician assistant Hayley Arceneaux and used the other to run a fundraiser, but the winner did not participate in the flight and instead passed the ticket on to his friend, 42-year-old U.S. Air Force veteran Chris Sembroski.</p><p>The last ticket, which Isaacman gave away as a prize through a competition launched by his company Shift4 Payments, went to 51-year-old geology professor Sian Proctor.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3af57b72ae1cdb940871437e1b3d90\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Four space tourists, from left to right: Chris Sembrowski, Jared Isaacman, Hayley Archer, and Sean Proctor.</p><p><b>1. How is SpaceX's space tourism different from previous ones?</b></p><p>Everyone probably remembers clearly that in July of this year, Virgin Group founder Richard Branson and the world's richest man, Jeff Bezos, both flew to the edge of space aboard their company's spaceship, claiming to have ushered in a new era of space tourism. So, what are the fundamental differences between Musk's SpaceX space tourism this time and the space tourism of the previous two companies?</p><p>Yes! The first two big names both engaged in suborbital spaceflight, while Musk is doing genuine orbital space tourism this time. This time, space tourists will orbit the Earth every 90 minutes at an altitude of 575 kilometers above the ground, overlooking the beautiful Earth. The first two executives experienced weightlessness for only 3 to 4 minutes, while Musk's four guests were able to enjoy three days of weightlessness.</p><p>Speaking of which, let's review what a suborbital orbit is. What is space?</p><p>The so-called suborbital orbit refers to a flight mode in which a spacecraft, although it has reached \"space,\" cannot maintain its orbit at space altitude and is subsequently pulled back to the ground by Earth's gravity. What is real space? The density of the atmosphere decreases continuously from the ground up, meaning that the atmosphere does not have a clear boundary. The renowned aerospace engineer von Karmen (Qian Xuesen's mentor) once gave an altitude value of 100 kilometers based on aerodynamic calculations. In other words, exceeding this altitude can be considered space, which is the so-called \"Carmen Line\" (although Branson's spaceship did not reach a height of 100 kilometers, it exceeded the space altitude defined by NASA and could barely be considered reaching space).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/239490c933ec85be1a2a441c41201989\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Spaceship 2 carrying Branson detached from its mother engine and headed straight into space.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f94c680bbe34836af529bb145b0d504\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The moment the new Shepard rocket carrying Bezos takes off.</p><p>Therefore, to summarize: Branson and Bezos soared into the sky, reaching an altitude of about 100 kilometers, each did a super high-altitude bungee jump, touched space, and then returned. Musk's tourists entered Earth orbit 575 kilometers above the Earth's surface aboard the Dragon spacecraft, a true astronaut treatment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123ddc0abf9003541f46d712bc6ca805\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The Dragon spacecraft in Earth orbit, where the nose cone can be opened to reveal a transparent viewing dome (artist's impression).</p><p>What does 575 kilometers mean? Actually, it's already quite high. In contrast, the International Space Station operates at an altitude of 420 kilometers, and the famous Hubble Telescope operates at an altitude of 547 kilometers. Therefore, in the promotional slogan for this space tourism, the official claim is that this is the first time since astronauts performed in-orbit maintenance on the Hubble Telescope in 2009 that a human has exceeded an altitude of 500 kilometers above the ground.</p><p><b>II. What preparations do space tourists need?</b></p><p>Over the past few months, the four space tourists have undergone rigorous training: for example, familiarizing themselves with the operation of equipment and facilities in a flight simulator; undergoing overweight training in a centrifuge; Experience the feeling of weightlessness in advance in Zero Gravity's weightless aircraft; Hiking in high-altitude snow-capped mountains, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c60f34def77ac7cd3bfcedea411ffc1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Four space tourists undergoing weightlessness training.</p><p>These four space tourists are all experts with stories to tell. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><b>3. Four extraordinary \"civilian\" space tourists</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2970294f53ccdceb8ba8f793b051c629\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These four space tourists symbolize four spirits: leadership, hope, generosity, and prosperity.</p><p><b>Commander: Jared Isaacman</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c88c032e0f0f739201b37efe066a6f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Jared Isaacman: American billionaire and aviation enthusiast.</p><p>American billionaire Jared Isaacman was born on February 11, 1983. He is currently the founder and CEO of Shift4 Payments, a payment service company that handles approximately $200 billion in revenue annually.</p><p>Isaacman began taking flight lessons in 2004. In 2009, he set a world record for circumnavigating the globe. In 2011, he received a Bachelor of Science degree in Professional Aeronautics from Ambergrid Aeronautical University. Currently holds multiple military jet pilot qualifications.</p><p>He served as a symbol of the \"leadership\" spirit during this flight mission.</p><p><b>Chief Health Officer: Haley Alcheno</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6533fb1fb76cde66864f71464183fde3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Hayley Alcheno: A childhood bone cancer survivor who is now a physician assistant.</p><p>Hayley Archeno is an employee at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital and a childhood bone cancer survivor who is now a physician assistant. If all goes well, Archeno will become the youngest astronaut in American history by participating in the Inspiration 4 mission.</p><p>Archeno grew up in San Franciscoville, Louisiana, USA. When Archeno was 10 years old, he developed pain in one of his knees. Her doctors initially thought it was just a sprain, but a few months later tests revealed that Archeno had osteosarcoma. Her family turned to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital for treatment and care, and Archeno underwent a variety of treatments, including more than a dozen rounds of chemotherapy, amputation surgery, knee replacement, and titanium rod implantation in her left femur. Archeno has now finished treatment and is in good health. This experience also inspired Archeno to enter St. Jude Children's Research Hospital to work with other cancer patients, and she is currently a physician assistant for leukemia and lymphoma patients.</p><p>She served as a symbol of the spirit of \"hope\" during this flight mission.</p><p><b>Mission Expert: Chris Sembroski</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111d201bb955c40f0480214e8c0adfac\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Christopher Sembrowski: U.S. Air Force veteran and space enthusiast.</p><p>Christopher Sembrowski is an American data engineer and retired U.S. Air Force veteran who currently resides in Everett, Washington. Sembrowski is currently an employee of Lockheed Martin. As an amateur astronomer and rocket expert, Sembrowski has always been interested in exploring space.</p><p>He served as a symbol of the spirit of \"generosity\" during this flight mission.</p><p><b>Driver: Sean Proctor</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdd48c2c87d04df47688a3e21445bee\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Sean Proctor: Geologist.</p><p>Sean Proctor is an American geology professor and a key member of the Civil Air Patrol organization.</p><p>As a passionate communicator of scientific knowledge, Proctor has appeared in three educational television programs: Rebuilding Human Society Season 2 on the Discovery Channel in 2010, Stephen Hawking's Genius Lab Season 2 in 2016, and Strange Evidence.</p><p>She served as a symbol of the spirit of \"prosperity\" during this flight mission.</p><p><b>IV. Second-hand manned Dragon spacecraft</b></p><p>The Resilience manned Dragon spacecraft used this time is a second-hand spacecraft that was used in SpaceX's first official manned flight (Crew-1) mission last November. The spacecraft is 4 meters in diameter and 8.1 meters high, and can carry up to 7 astronauts, which is the same number of astronauts as the Space Shuttle, but so far it has only carried a maximum of 4 astronauts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3992f1c593198207d7f3cd431f0a93de\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The manned Dragon spacecraft in transit.</p><p>The manned Dragon spacecraft belongs to the second-generation Dragon spacecraft (Dragon 2) developed by SpaceX and has reusable capabilities. The second-generation Dragon spacecraft can be divided into two types: manned Dragon spacecraft and cargo Dragon spacecraft. Its predecessor was the first-generation cargo Dragon spacecraft (Dragon 1). The new spacecraft can automatically dock with the space station, unlike the first generation of spacecraft, which requires the help of robotic arms on the space station. Of course, the manned Dragon spacecraft also retains the option of manual docking. The destination of this space tourism is not the International Space Station, so there is no need to dock with the space station.</p><p><b>V. Safety Guaranteed: The Dragon Spacecraft possesses full escape capabilities.</b></p><p>The manned Dragon spacecraft is equipped with eight powerful \"Super Dragon Constellation\" rockets. The rockets are grouped together and mounted on the side wall of the spacecraft for escape purposes. Each engine has a thrust of up to 71 kiloNewtons, which is equivalent to 7.1 tons of thrust. In addition, it is equipped with 16 relatively low-thrust \"Tianlongza\" engine nozzles for attitude control and orbital maneuvering.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e459370ce49bd5d40310c0dcfa39be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The \"Flight Abort Test\" test of the manned Dragon spacecraft (artist's impression).</p><p>Those familiar with manned spaceflight may have noticed that both the Apollo lunar rocket and my country's Long March 2F manned carrier rocket have an escape tower at the top of the rocket.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3635996bc17d384ab14601ae9cdc51b4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The escape tower of the Apollo spacecraft.</p><p>The purpose of the escape tower is to activate the escape tower rocket during the initial stage of rocket launch. In the event of an accident, it can take the spacecraft to a safe altitude and then land. If the launch goes well, once the rocket reaches a certain altitude, the escape tower will separate and then be discarded. The manned version of the Dragon spacecraft is equivalent to integrating the escape tower into the ship. What are the advantages of doing this?</p><p>This method allows the spaceship to have the ability to \"escape throughout the entire process\"! In other words, if a problem occurs at any stage of the spacecraft's flight, it has the ability to escape, while the escape tower can only guarantee escape during the initial stage of rocket launch. This is also a new way for manned spacecraft to escape in the future.</p><p><b>VI. Safety Guaranteed: A Stable Falcon 9 (Block 5) Rocket</b></p><p>We know that SpaceX is famous for its reusable rockets, and this time the first stage of the core uses a three-layer Falcon 9 (Block 5) rocket.</p><p>The Falcon 9 (Block 5) is a two-stage launch vehicle with a height of 70 meters. It uses liquid oxygen and kerosene as propellants. The core first stage rocket is equipped with nine Merlin engines with a total thrust of 7,600 kN, equivalent to 760 tons. With first-stage recovery, the low-Earth orbit payload capacity is 15.6 tons; without first-stage recovery, the low-Earth orbit payload capacity is 22.8 tons, making it a medium-sized launch vehicle.</p><p>To date, the Falcon 9 (Block 5) still maintains a 100% successful launch record.</p><p><b>7. When will the four space tourists return?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd13146aad32e0bbced3344c0bcfe03\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: This is the scene of the manned Dragon spacecraft returning to Earth and landing in the ocean.</p><p>According to the official plan, the four space tourists will return to Earth three days after launch, which is September 19 Beijing time. However, a temporary postponement cannot be ruled out. At that time, the Dragon spacecraft will slowly land in the Atlantic Ocean, towed by a parachute, according to the established procedure, awaiting the arrival of the rescue team.</p><p>Finally, I wish them a happy time in space and a safe return.</p>","source":"highlight_tencentus","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX conducts its first \"all-civilian\" Space tour! How significant is it?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX conducts its first \"all-civilian\" Space tour! How significant is it?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 10:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Qiao Hui</p><p>At approximately 8:00 AM Beijing time on September 16, 2021, SpaceX conducted its first \"all-civilian\" space tourism launch from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, USA. Currently, the spacecraft has successfully entered orbit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7874305c006a53f849beceaa6cdb02ac\" tg-width=\"1042\" tg-height=\"620\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the plan, four space tourists will be taken to an orbit 575 kilometers above the Earth to orbit the Earth for a three-day space tourism trip.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfabef3c105526241030c5858313cfc\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Four space tourists, from left to right: Hayley Archer, Sean Proctor, Jared Isaacman, and Chris Sembrowski.</p><p>The launch mission is named \"Inspiration 4,\" and all four tickets were purchased with funds from 38-year-old billionaire and American e-commerce tycoon Jared Isaacman. I haven't noticed a detailed disclosure of the exact cost yet.</p><p>Isaacman gave two of the tickets to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, which gave one to 29-year-old physician assistant Hayley Arceneaux and used the other to run a fundraiser, but the winner did not participate in the flight and instead passed the ticket on to his friend, 42-year-old U.S. Air Force veteran Chris Sembroski.</p><p>The last ticket, which Isaacman gave away as a prize through a competition launched by his company Shift4 Payments, went to 51-year-old geology professor Sian Proctor.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3af57b72ae1cdb940871437e1b3d90\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Four space tourists, from left to right: Chris Sembrowski, Jared Isaacman, Hayley Archer, and Sean Proctor.</p><p><b>1. How is SpaceX's space tourism different from previous ones?</b></p><p>Everyone probably remembers clearly that in July of this year, Virgin Group founder Richard Branson and the world's richest man, Jeff Bezos, both flew to the edge of space aboard their company's spaceship, claiming to have ushered in a new era of space tourism. So, what are the fundamental differences between Musk's SpaceX space tourism this time and the space tourism of the previous two companies?</p><p>Yes! The first two big names both engaged in suborbital spaceflight, while Musk is doing genuine orbital space tourism this time. This time, space tourists will orbit the Earth every 90 minutes at an altitude of 575 kilometers above the ground, overlooking the beautiful Earth. The first two executives experienced weightlessness for only 3 to 4 minutes, while Musk's four guests were able to enjoy three days of weightlessness.</p><p>Speaking of which, let's review what a suborbital orbit is. What is space?</p><p>The so-called suborbital orbit refers to a flight mode in which a spacecraft, although it has reached \"space,\" cannot maintain its orbit at space altitude and is subsequently pulled back to the ground by Earth's gravity. What is real space? The density of the atmosphere decreases continuously from the ground up, meaning that the atmosphere does not have a clear boundary. The renowned aerospace engineer von Karmen (Qian Xuesen's mentor) once gave an altitude value of 100 kilometers based on aerodynamic calculations. In other words, exceeding this altitude can be considered space, which is the so-called \"Carmen Line\" (although Branson's spaceship did not reach a height of 100 kilometers, it exceeded the space altitude defined by NASA and could barely be considered reaching space).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/239490c933ec85be1a2a441c41201989\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Spaceship 2 carrying Branson detached from its mother engine and headed straight into space.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f94c680bbe34836af529bb145b0d504\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The moment the new Shepard rocket carrying Bezos takes off.</p><p>Therefore, to summarize: Branson and Bezos soared into the sky, reaching an altitude of about 100 kilometers, each did a super high-altitude bungee jump, touched space, and then returned. Musk's tourists entered Earth orbit 575 kilometers above the Earth's surface aboard the Dragon spacecraft, a true astronaut treatment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/123ddc0abf9003541f46d712bc6ca805\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The Dragon spacecraft in Earth orbit, where the nose cone can be opened to reveal a transparent viewing dome (artist's impression).</p><p>What does 575 kilometers mean? Actually, it's already quite high. In contrast, the International Space Station operates at an altitude of 420 kilometers, and the famous Hubble Telescope operates at an altitude of 547 kilometers. Therefore, in the promotional slogan for this space tourism, the official claim is that this is the first time since astronauts performed in-orbit maintenance on the Hubble Telescope in 2009 that a human has exceeded an altitude of 500 kilometers above the ground.</p><p><b>II. What preparations do space tourists need?</b></p><p>Over the past few months, the four space tourists have undergone rigorous training: for example, familiarizing themselves with the operation of equipment and facilities in a flight simulator; undergoing overweight training in a centrifuge; Experience the feeling of weightlessness in advance in Zero Gravity's weightless aircraft; Hiking in high-altitude snow-capped mountains, etc.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c60f34def77ac7cd3bfcedea411ffc1\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Four space tourists undergoing weightlessness training.</p><p>These four space tourists are all experts with stories to tell. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><b>3. Four extraordinary \"civilian\" space tourists</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2970294f53ccdceb8ba8f793b051c629\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These four space tourists symbolize four spirits: leadership, hope, generosity, and prosperity.</p><p><b>Commander: Jared Isaacman</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c88c032e0f0f739201b37efe066a6f\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Jared Isaacman: American billionaire and aviation enthusiast.</p><p>American billionaire Jared Isaacman was born on February 11, 1983. He is currently the founder and CEO of Shift4 Payments, a payment service company that handles approximately $200 billion in revenue annually.</p><p>Isaacman began taking flight lessons in 2004. In 2009, he set a world record for circumnavigating the globe. In 2011, he received a Bachelor of Science degree in Professional Aeronautics from Ambergrid Aeronautical University. Currently holds multiple military jet pilot qualifications.</p><p>He served as a symbol of the \"leadership\" spirit during this flight mission.</p><p><b>Chief Health Officer: Haley Alcheno</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6533fb1fb76cde66864f71464183fde3\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Hayley Alcheno: A childhood bone cancer survivor who is now a physician assistant.</p><p>Hayley Archeno is an employee at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital and a childhood bone cancer survivor who is now a physician assistant. If all goes well, Archeno will become the youngest astronaut in American history by participating in the Inspiration 4 mission.</p><p>Archeno grew up in San Franciscoville, Louisiana, USA. When Archeno was 10 years old, he developed pain in one of his knees. Her doctors initially thought it was just a sprain, but a few months later tests revealed that Archeno had osteosarcoma. Her family turned to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital for treatment and care, and Archeno underwent a variety of treatments, including more than a dozen rounds of chemotherapy, amputation surgery, knee replacement, and titanium rod implantation in her left femur. Archeno has now finished treatment and is in good health. This experience also inspired Archeno to enter St. Jude Children's Research Hospital to work with other cancer patients, and she is currently a physician assistant for leukemia and lymphoma patients.</p><p>She served as a symbol of the spirit of \"hope\" during this flight mission.</p><p><b>Mission Expert: Chris Sembroski</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111d201bb955c40f0480214e8c0adfac\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Christopher Sembrowski: U.S. Air Force veteran and space enthusiast.</p><p>Christopher Sembrowski is an American data engineer and retired U.S. Air Force veteran who currently resides in Everett, Washington. Sembrowski is currently an employee of Lockheed Martin. As an amateur astronomer and rocket expert, Sembrowski has always been interested in exploring space.</p><p>He served as a symbol of the spirit of \"generosity\" during this flight mission.</p><p><b>Driver: Sean Proctor</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fdd48c2c87d04df47688a3e21445bee\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: Sean Proctor: Geologist.</p><p>Sean Proctor is an American geology professor and a key member of the Civil Air Patrol organization.</p><p>As a passionate communicator of scientific knowledge, Proctor has appeared in three educational television programs: Rebuilding Human Society Season 2 on the Discovery Channel in 2010, Stephen Hawking's Genius Lab Season 2 in 2016, and Strange Evidence.</p><p>She served as a symbol of the spirit of \"prosperity\" during this flight mission.</p><p><b>IV. Second-hand manned Dragon spacecraft</b></p><p>The Resilience manned Dragon spacecraft used this time is a second-hand spacecraft that was used in SpaceX's first official manned flight (Crew-1) mission last November. The spacecraft is 4 meters in diameter and 8.1 meters high, and can carry up to 7 astronauts, which is the same number of astronauts as the Space Shuttle, but so far it has only carried a maximum of 4 astronauts.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3992f1c593198207d7f3cd431f0a93de\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The manned Dragon spacecraft in transit.</p><p>The manned Dragon spacecraft belongs to the second-generation Dragon spacecraft (Dragon 2) developed by SpaceX and has reusable capabilities. The second-generation Dragon spacecraft can be divided into two types: manned Dragon spacecraft and cargo Dragon spacecraft. Its predecessor was the first-generation cargo Dragon spacecraft (Dragon 1). The new spacecraft can automatically dock with the space station, unlike the first generation of spacecraft, which requires the help of robotic arms on the space station. Of course, the manned Dragon spacecraft also retains the option of manual docking. The destination of this space tourism is not the International Space Station, so there is no need to dock with the space station.</p><p><b>V. Safety Guaranteed: The Dragon Spacecraft possesses full escape capabilities.</b></p><p>The manned Dragon spacecraft is equipped with eight powerful \"Super Dragon Constellation\" rockets. The rockets are grouped together and mounted on the side wall of the spacecraft for escape purposes. Each engine has a thrust of up to 71 kiloNewtons, which is equivalent to 7.1 tons of thrust. In addition, it is equipped with 16 relatively low-thrust \"Tianlongza\" engine nozzles for attitude control and orbital maneuvering.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52e459370ce49bd5d40310c0dcfa39be\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The \"Flight Abort Test\" test of the manned Dragon spacecraft (artist's impression).</p><p>Those familiar with manned spaceflight may have noticed that both the Apollo lunar rocket and my country's Long March 2F manned carrier rocket have an escape tower at the top of the rocket.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3635996bc17d384ab14601ae9cdc51b4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: The escape tower of the Apollo spacecraft.</p><p>The purpose of the escape tower is to activate the escape tower rocket during the initial stage of rocket launch. In the event of an accident, it can take the spacecraft to a safe altitude and then land. If the launch goes well, once the rocket reaches a certain altitude, the escape tower will separate and then be discarded. The manned version of the Dragon spacecraft is equivalent to integrating the escape tower into the ship. What are the advantages of doing this?</p><p>This method allows the spaceship to have the ability to \"escape throughout the entire process\"! In other words, if a problem occurs at any stage of the spacecraft's flight, it has the ability to escape, while the escape tower can only guarantee escape during the initial stage of rocket launch. This is also a new way for manned spacecraft to escape in the future.</p><p><b>VI. Safety Guaranteed: A Stable Falcon 9 (Block 5) Rocket</b></p><p>We know that SpaceX is famous for its reusable rockets, and this time the first stage of the core uses a three-layer Falcon 9 (Block 5) rocket.</p><p>The Falcon 9 (Block 5) is a two-stage launch vehicle with a height of 70 meters. It uses liquid oxygen and kerosene as propellants. The core first stage rocket is equipped with nine Merlin engines with a total thrust of 7,600 kN, equivalent to 760 tons. With first-stage recovery, the low-Earth orbit payload capacity is 15.6 tons; without first-stage recovery, the low-Earth orbit payload capacity is 22.8 tons, making it a medium-sized launch vehicle.</p><p>To date, the Falcon 9 (Block 5) still maintains a 100% successful launch record.</p><p><b>7. When will the four space tourists return?</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bd13146aad32e0bbced3344c0bcfe03\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Caption: This is the scene of the manned Dragon spacecraft returning to Earth and landing in the ocean.</p><p>According to the official plan, the four space tourists will return to Earth three days after launch, which is September 19 Beijing time. However, a temporary postponement cannot be ruled out. At that time, the Dragon spacecraft will slowly land in the Atlantic Ocean, towed by a parachute, according to the established procedure, awaiting the arrival of the rescue team.</p><p>Finally, I wish them a happy time in space and a safe return.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/a1ydN1azY_Vpod1nnUSEnQ\">腾讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed1a197c928ccaf7f86c6a810a9fd6b3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/a1ydN1azY_Vpod1nnUSEnQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131674317","content_text":"作者：乔辉\n北京时间2021年9月16日8时许，美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）进行了首次“全平民”太空旅游发射，地点位于美国佛罗里达州肯尼迪航天中心。目前，飞船已经成功进入轨道。\n\n按计划，四名太空游客会被带到距离地面575公里高的轨道上环绕地球飞行，进行为期3天的太空旅游观光。\n\n图注：图注：四位太空游客，从左到右依次是：海莉·阿尔切、西恩·普罗克特、贾里德·艾萨克曼和克里斯·森布罗斯基。\n本次发射任务命名为“灵感4”（Inspiration4），四张船票全由38岁的亿万富翁、美国电商大亨贾里德·艾萨克曼（Jared Isaacman）出资购买。具体花费多少，还没注意到有详细披露。\n艾萨克曼把其中两张票赠送给了圣犹达儿童研究医院，该医院把其中一张票给了29岁的医师助理海莉·阿尔切诺（Hayley Arceneaux），用另一张票搞了一次筹集资金活动，但赢得活动的人并没有参加本次飞行，而是把票转手给了自己的朋友，42岁的美国空军退役军人克里斯·森布罗斯基（Chris Sembroski）。\n最后一张票，艾萨克曼通过一项由自己公司Shift4 Payments发起的竞赛项目作为奖品送出，获得者是51岁的地质学教授西恩·普罗克特（Sian Proctor）。\n\n图注：四位太空游客，从左到右依次是：克里斯·森布罗斯基、贾里德·艾萨克曼、海莉·阿尔切和西恩·普罗克特。\n一、SpaceX这次太空旅游与此前的有什么不同？\n大家应该都还清晰记得，就在今年7月份，维珍集团创始人理查德·布兰森（Richard Branson）和世界首富贝索斯都先后搭乘自家公司太空船飞到了太空边缘，他们都声称开启了太空旅游的新时代。那，这次马斯克的SpaceX公司的太空旅游与前两位的太空旅游有什么本质不同吗？\n有！前两位大佬玩的都是亚轨道太空飞行，而马斯克这次搞的是货真价实的入轨太空旅游，本次太空游客在距离地面575公里的高度上每90分钟绕地球一圈，俯瞰美丽的地球；前两位大佬体验失重的时间仅仅3分钟到4分钟，而马斯克的这四名客人能够享受3天的失重感觉。\n说到这里，我们再来复习一下什么是亚轨道？什么是太空？\n所谓的亚轨道是指飞行器虽然触达到了“太空”，但是无法维持在太空高度做环球飞行，随后会被地球引力重新拉回地面的一种飞行模式。什么是真正的太空呢？大气密度从地面往上是一个连续变小的过程，也就是说，大气并没有一个明确的边界。著名航空航天工程师冯·卡门（钱学森的导师）曾根据空气动力学计算，给出一个高度数值：100公里。也就是说，超过这个高度就可认为是太空了，这就是所谓的“卡门线”（虽然布兰森的太空船高度并未达到100公里，但超过了NASA定义的太空高度，也勉强算触达太空了）。\n\n图注：搭载着布兰森的太空船二号脱离母机，直冲太空。\n\n图注：搭载贝索斯的新谢泼德号火箭起飞瞬间。\n因此，再总结一下：布兰森和贝索斯直冲云霄，飞到了100公里左右的高度，各玩了一次超高空蹦极，触摸了一下太空就回来了。而马斯克的游客们搭乘龙飞船进入了距地面575公里高的地球轨道，是货真价实的宇航员待遇。\n\n图注：地球轨道中的龙飞船，可以看到头锥盖能打开，露出透明观景穹顶（艺术图）。\n575公里是一个什么概念？其实已经比较高了。相比之下，国际空间站运行的高度为420公里，大名鼎鼎的哈勃望远镜运行的高度为547公里。因此，在本次太空旅游的宣传语中，官方宣称，这是自2009年宇航员执行对哈勃望远镜在轨维修以来，再次有人类超过距离地面500公里的高度。\n二、太空游客需要什么准备？\n在过去几个月的时间里，四名太空游客进行了严苛的培训：例如，在飞行模拟器中进行了设备设施操作的熟悉；在离心机中接受超重训练；在零重力公司的失重飞机中提前体验失重的感觉；在高海拔雪山中进行徒步行走等等。\n\n图注：四位太空游客在接受失重训练。\n这四名太空游客都是大神，都是有故事的人，下面我们来详细了解一下。\n三、四名不平凡的“平民”太空游客\n\n这四名太空游客，分别象征领导力（leadership）、希望（hope）、慷慨（generosity）和繁荣（prosperity）这四种精神。\n指令长：贾里德·艾萨克曼\n\n图注：贾里德·艾萨克曼：美国亿万富翁，飞行爱好者。\n美国亿万富翁贾里德·艾萨克曼出生于1983年2月11日，目前是支付服务公司Shift4 Payments的创始人兼首席执行官，该公司每年大约处理2000亿美元的流水。\n2004年起，艾萨克曼开始学习飞行课程。2009年，他创造了环球航行的世界纪录。2011年，他获得安柏瑞德航空大学的专业航空学学士学位。目前拥有多种军用喷气式飞机的驾驶资格。\n他在本次飞行任务中作为“领导力”精神的象征。\n首席卫生官：海莉·阿尔切诺\n\n图注：海莉·阿尔切诺：一名儿童骨癌幸存者，现在是一名医生助理。\n海莉·阿尔切诺是圣犹达儿童研究医院的员工，也是一名儿童骨癌幸存者，现在是一名医生助理。如果一切顺利的话，阿尔切诺将因为参加“灵感4号”任务而成为美国历史上最年轻的宇航员。\n阿尔切诺在美国路易斯安那州的圣弗朗西斯科维尔长大。在阿尔切诺10岁的时候一处膝盖出现疼痛症状。她的医生起初以为只是扭伤，但几个月后检查显示阿尔切诺患的是骨肉瘤。她的家人求助于圣犹达儿童研究医院进行治疗和护理，阿尔切诺经受了十几轮化疗、截肢手术、膝关节置换和左大腿骨钛棒植入等各种治疗手段。现在阿尔切诺已经结束治疗，身体状况良好。这段经历也激励阿尔切诺进入圣犹达儿童研究医院为其他癌症患者工作，目前她是白血病和淋巴瘤患者的医生助理。\n她在本次飞行任务中作为“希望”精神的象征。\n任务专家：克里斯·森布罗斯基\n\n图注：克里斯托弗·森布罗斯基：美国空军退役军人，太空爱好者。\n克里斯托弗·森布罗斯基是一名美国数据工程师，也是从美国空军退役的军人，目前居住在美国华盛顿州埃弗雷特。森布罗斯基现为洛克希德·马丁公司员工。作为一名业余天文学家和火箭专家，森布罗斯基一直对探索太空很感兴趣。\n他在本次飞行任务中作为“慷慨”精神的象征。\n驾驶员：西恩·普罗克特\n\n图注：西恩·普罗克特：地质学家。\n西恩·普罗克特是一位美国地质学教授，也是民间航空巡逻组织的主要成员。\n作为一位热情的科学知识传播者，普罗克特曾出现在三档教育类电视节目中，分别是2010年探索频道播出的《重建人类社会第二季》、2016年播出的《霍金天才实验室第二季》，以及《奇怪的证据》。\n她在本次飞行任务中作为“繁荣”精神的象征。\n四、二手载人龙飞船\n本次使用的“坚毅号”载人龙飞船，是去年11月，SpaceX首次正式载人飞行（Crew-1）任务中使用过的二手飞船。该飞船直径4米，高8.1米，最多可搭载7位宇航员，这与航天飞机搭载的宇航员数量相同，但到目前为止，最多也只搭载过4位宇航员。\n\n图注：运输途中的载人龙飞船。\n载人龙飞船属于SpaceX研制的第二代龙飞船（Dragon 2），具备可重复使用的能力。第二代龙飞船可分为载人龙飞船和货运龙飞船两种，其前身是第一代货运龙飞船（Dragon 1）。新飞船可以自动与空间站完成对接，而不像第一代飞船那样，需要借助空间站上的机械臂的帮助。当然，载人龙飞船也保留了人工对接的选项。本次太空旅游的目的地不是国际空间站，也就无需对接空间站了。\n五、安全有保障：龙飞船具备全程逃逸能力\n载人龙飞船集成有8个推力强大的“超级天龙座”火箭，火箭两为分组，安装在飞船的侧壁，作为逃生使用，每个发动机的推力可达71千牛，换算成大家有直观感觉的表示方式就是相当于7.1吨的推力。此外，还装有16个推力相对较小的“天龙座”发动机喷口，用于姿态控制和轨道机动。\n\n图注：载人龙飞船“飞行中止测试”试验（艺术图）。\n熟悉载人航天的朋友，可能会留意到，无论是阿波罗登月火箭，还是我国的长征2F载人运载火箭，在火箭顶部都有个逃逸塔。\n\n图注：阿波罗飞船的逃逸塔。\n逃逸塔的作用就是在火箭发射起始阶段，如果发生意外，可以启动逃逸塔火箭，把飞船带离到安全的高度，然后着陆。如果发射一切顺利，等火箭飞到一定的高度，逃逸塔会分离，然后丢弃。而载人版龙飞船相当于把逃逸塔集成在船身上，这样做有什么好处呢？\n这种方式能够使飞船具备“全程逃逸”的能力！也就是说，在飞船飞行的任何阶段出问题，都具备逃生能力，而逃逸塔只能保证火箭发射初始阶段的逃生。这也是未来载人飞船逃逸的新方式。\n六、安全有保障：稳定的猎鹰9（Block 5）火箭\n我们知道，SpaceX以可回收火箭名扬天下，这次芯一级使用的是三手猎鹰9（Block 5）火箭。\n猎鹰9（Block 5）是两级运载火箭，高度70米，以液氧和煤油为推进剂，芯一级火箭装配有9台梅林发动机，总推力7600千牛，相当于760吨。在回收一级的情况下，近地轨道的运载能力为15.6吨，不回收一级的情况下，近地轨道运载能力为22.8吨，算是一款中型运载火箭。\n截至到目前，猎鹰9（Block 5）仍然保持了100%成功的发射纪录。\n七、四名太空游客何时返回？\n\n图注：这是此前载人龙飞船返回地球，降落大海的情形。\n根据官方的计划，这四名太空游客将在发射三天后返回地球，也就是北京时间的9月19日。但也不排除临时推迟。届时，龙飞船将按照既定流程，在降落伞的拖曳下缓缓降落在大西洋上，等待救援队的到来。\n最后，预祝他们在太空玩得开心，平安返航。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881457564,"gmtCreate":1631394573358,"gmtModify":1676530539156,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881457564","repostId":"1144889232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114327618,"gmtCreate":1623052894134,"gmtModify":1704195072077,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114327618","repostId":"1122787778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122787778","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623052381,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1122787778?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 15:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"China Evergrande has recovered its 5% decline and is now up over 2%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122787778","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月7日，中国恒大收复5%跌幅，现上涨超2%。恒大集团今日发表声明称生产经营一切正常，从未出现借款利息晚付、本金逾期归还的情况。恒大集团发布声明：近日我司举办一年一度的“5·31购房节”，推出的阶段性","content":"<p>June 7th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>It has recovered its 5% loss and is now up over 2%. Evergrande Group issued a statement today saying that its production and operations are normal, and there have never been any delays in loan interest payments or overdue principal repayments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2422108468d9716d574a8eb0f9416ed4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Evergrande Group issued a statement: Recently, our company held its annual \"5.31 Home Buying Festival\" and launched a phased mega-discount measure, which is limited to the last units with a single building sales rate of more than 95%, including super-large units, ground floors, and shops. There have been no adjustments to the selling prices, discounts, and payment methods of all regular products. In response to the fact that some of our project companies had a very small amount of commercial bills that had not been redeemed in a timely manner, the group attached great importance to them and arranged for redemption. Our company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02066\">Shengjing Bank</a>All financial businesses conducted comply with relevant national laws and regulations. Our company's production and operations are normal. In the 25 years since its establishment, there have never been any cases of late payment of loan interest or overdue repayment of principal.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f28e9c6b6300a902dc92bbe177dfd5\" tg-width=\"1186\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China Evergrande has recovered its 5% decline and is now up over 2%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina Evergrande has recovered its 5% decline and is now up over 2%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 15:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>June 7th,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">China Evergrande</a>It has recovered its 5% loss and is now up over 2%. Evergrande Group issued a statement today saying that its production and operations are normal, and there have never been any delays in loan interest payments or overdue principal repayments.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2422108468d9716d574a8eb0f9416ed4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Evergrande Group issued a statement: Recently, our company held its annual \"5.31 Home Buying Festival\" and launched a phased mega-discount measure, which is limited to the last units with a single building sales rate of more than 95%, including super-large units, ground floors, and shops. There have been no adjustments to the selling prices, discounts, and payment methods of all regular products. In response to the fact that some of our project companies had a very small amount of commercial bills that had not been redeemed in a timely manner, the group attached great importance to them and arranged for redemption. Our company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02066\">Shengjing Bank</a>All financial businesses conducted comply with relevant national laws and regulations. Our company's production and operations are normal. In the 25 years since its establishment, there have never been any cases of late payment of loan interest or overdue repayment of principal.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f28e9c6b6300a902dc92bbe177dfd5\" tg-width=\"1186\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122787778","content_text":"6月7日，中国恒大收复5%跌幅，现上涨超2%。恒大集团今日发表声明称生产经营一切正常，从未出现借款利息晚付、本金逾期归还的情况。恒大集团发布声明：近日我司举办一年一度的“5·31购房节”，推出的阶段性特大优惠措施，仅限于单栋去化率95%以上的尾盘，超大户型、底顶楼层、商铺等产品。所有常规产品的销售价格、优惠折扣及付款方式没做任何调整。针对我司个别项目公司存在极少量商票未及时兑付的情况，集团高度重视并安排兑付。我司与盛京银行开展的金融业务，均符合国家的相关法律法规。我司生产经营一切正常，成立25年来从未出现借款利息晚付、本金逾期归还的情况。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03333":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132910222,"gmtCreate":1622063078266,"gmtModify":1704178611549,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559247438203174","idStr":"3559247438203174"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132910222","repostId":"2138489451","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138489451","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622039767,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138489451?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 22:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"With record-breaking performance, has Xiaomi finally established itself in the high-end market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138489451","media":"虎嗅","summary":"小米再创新高。\n2021年5月26日，小米集团公布2021年第一季度业绩。营收达人民币769亿元，同比增长54.7%，上市以来历史新高，经调整净利润人民币61亿元，同比增长163.8%，同样也是历史新","content":"<p>Xiaomi has set a new record.</p><p>On May 26, 2021, Xiaomi Group announced its results for the first quarter of 2021. Revenue reached RMB 76.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.7%, a record high since listing, and adjusted net profit was RMB 6.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 163.8%, also a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80203d53c042a51f7ab2e4f4023a54e5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both revenue and profit doubled year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of the pandemic last year, which resulted in a low base. Profits are roughly at the same level month-on-month. As of today, Xiaomi's share price is HK$28.15, maintaining its high level in nearly three months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596923ad245b43f00ca77ea4031d55f2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Mobile phones, IoT, and the internet remain the three drivers of Xiaomi's revenue. The story of 2021 is mainly about mobile phones. Since the beginning of this year, the mobile phone market has seen significant price increases and fierce competition. Even though Xiaomi's final focus may be on car manufacturing, what supported Xiaomi's financial report this quarter was its mobile phone business, which has been repeatedly questioned.</p><p>In Q1 2021, Xiaomi continued to rank third globally, shipping 49.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 69.1%. Revenue was RMB51.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.8%. According to Canalys statistics, mainland China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Mobile phone shipments increased by 74.6% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e53162e6da1570c4bca3be410b3be7a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since gradually recovering from the impact of the pandemic in Q3 2020, Xiaomi's mobile phone sales have remained at a high level of over 40 million units. Next quarter, it is expected to exceed 50 million units, and its quarterly mobile phone revenue will also exceed 50 billion yuan for the first time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e272198bb6e753ea90190ede9f90b1aa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Compared to the numbers, the high-end story that Xiaomi has been telling has finally achieved results in the first season.</p><p>The financial report disclosed that global shipments of smartphones priced at RMB 3,000 or above in mainland China and priced at EUR 300 or above overseas exceeded 4 million units. Xiaomi's market share of smartphones priced between RMB 4,000 and RMB 6,000 increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 16.1% this quarter, tripling its share and finally no longer being the \"others\" in the high-end market.</p><p>The gross profit margin has also improved to 12.9%, compared to around 8% in the same period last year. It is still not particularly high, but it is a good improvement for Xiaomi.</p><p>Xiaomi's high-end model, the 11 series, this year truly gives it confidence to say that it has established itself in the high-end market. As of the end of April, the global order volume for the Xiaomi 11 series exceeded 3 million units. According to third-party data, the Xiaomi 11 series ranks first in sales among Android phones priced between RMB 4,000 and 6,000 in mainland China.</p><p>The Xiaomi 11 truly deserves the title of \"flagship goalkeeper,\" meaning that those with the same price are not as good as mine, and those that are better than mine are not as cheap as mine. Of course, if I had to say, the Xiaomi 11 still continues its \"cost-effectiveness\" strategy among high-end phones. The 11 Ultra's sales are not as good as the 11, and Xiaomi still needs to figure out how to improve its truly high-end products. The 11 series is indeed selling quite well. I'll leave it to later models to explore further.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have collectively raised prices. Due to the impact of Huawei mobile phones, the Chinese mobile phone market, especially the high-end market, has given up a large market share. Who wouldn't want to take advantage of this lucrative market? Xiaomi has indeed seized some of these opportunities, but this also raises questions about whether Xiaomi's high-end strategy has truly succeeded or whether it has just \"gotten a bargain\".</p><p>This question can only be answered by more expensive \"true flagships\" in the future.</p><p>High-volume devices have always been Xiaomi's strength. Today, Redmi released its best-selling model, the Note 10 series, which will be reflected in its financial reports for the second and third quarters. The performance of various companies on June 18th is also the most important milestone in the second quarter's performance.</p><p>While Xiaomi made some gains in the high-end market, it failed to take advantage of the market share in China, and OPPO formed a leading group. This is also why Xiaomi has begun to relentlessly pursue offline channels this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959a710b9ca1d21cd1200930e1fc6f66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Xiaomi's overseas smartphones continued to grow steadily, with India remaining number one. Countries with strong businesses such as Eastern Europe and Spain also maintained their top position. It is estimated that there is no hope of breaking through to third place in the Western European market for the time being. As in the previous quarter, Xiaomi's revenue from overseas still accounted for about half.</p><p>The strong performance of its mobile phone business has been accompanied by Xiaomi's internet business. With Xiaomi's internet advertising business hitting a new record high in a single quarter, generating revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, and both the number of MIUI users and overseas internet revenue increasing, Xiaomi's internet model is no longer a new concept and is now a stable source of revenue.</p><p>In the IoT sector, performance was normal, lower than the high of over 20 billion yuan in Q4 last year, mainly due to capacity issues caused by a global chip shortage. Xiaomi released the 86-inch Redmi Master in the first quarter of this year, which was priced at 7,999 yuan at the time of its release, but has now risen to 9,999 yuan, highlighting the supply problem. The good news is that Q4 data last year showed that air purifiers and smart door locks held the largest market share, while vacuum cleaners...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>The second-largest market share, the bad news is that Xiaomi's IoT business, which declined quarter-on-quarter, has few highlights. Xiaomi's large appliance business (white goods), excluding TVs, is generally strong and has not been mentioned in its financial reports for several quarters.</p><p>In summary, Xiaomi's record revenue this quarter was mainly contributed by its mobile phone business, which saw shipments increase by nearly 10 million units quarter-on-quarter. With increased shipments and improved ASP, Xiaomi's performance this quarter has been satisfactory to the market.</p><p>Let's look at some interesting data:</p><p>In its financial report, Xiaomi mentioned its car manufacturing business for the first time, but there wasn't much additional information. It was still about the investment amount: an initial investment of 10 billion RMB and an investment of 10 billion USD over the next ten years. In 2020, Xiaomi's cash reserves were 108 billion yuan, and in the first quarter of this year, they were 34.3 billion yuan. In the short term, there is still enough money to invest in car manufacturing.</p><p>In terms of R&D, Xiaomi's R&D expenditure reached RMB 3 billion in Q1 2021, a year-on-year increase of 61.0%. It's common knowledge that R&D is essential for developing high-end products, and Xiaomi is willing to spend money, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>For the customized CMOS GN2, Xiaomi stated that the R&D expenses were 200 million yuan.</p><p>As of Q1, Xiaomi had invested in more than 320 companies with a total book value of RMB 51.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%. The net investment profit in the first quarter was RMB 400 million. With the market recovering, Xiaomi's investment business has also maintained good growth.</p><p>Xiaomi's salary expenses in the first quarter were 3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. The number of full-time employees is 23,410, of which 14,921 employees hold equity incentives.</p><p>Xiaomi recently launched its largest campus recruitment campaign since its inception. High-end mobile phones, overseas markets, car manufacturing, IoT... Xiaomi's various businesses still have room for growth. Since Q2 of last year, Xiaomi has been in a stable growth phase. However, at the same time, its domestic market share and how to enter the top two in Western Europe have been problems that have not been resolved for several quarters.</p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>With record-breaking performance, has Xiaomi finally established itself in the high-end market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWith record-breaking performance, has Xiaomi finally established itself in the high-end market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">虎嗅</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 22:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xiaomi has set a new record.</p><p>On May 26, 2021, Xiaomi Group announced its results for the first quarter of 2021. Revenue reached RMB 76.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.7%, a record high since listing, and adjusted net profit was RMB 6.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 163.8%, also a record high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80203d53c042a51f7ab2e4f4023a54e5\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Both revenue and profit doubled year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of the pandemic last year, which resulted in a low base. Profits are roughly at the same level month-on-month. As of today, Xiaomi's share price is HK$28.15, maintaining its high level in nearly three months.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596923ad245b43f00ca77ea4031d55f2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Mobile phones, IoT, and the internet remain the three drivers of Xiaomi's revenue. The story of 2021 is mainly about mobile phones. Since the beginning of this year, the mobile phone market has seen significant price increases and fierce competition. Even though Xiaomi's final focus may be on car manufacturing, what supported Xiaomi's financial report this quarter was its mobile phone business, which has been repeatedly questioned.</p><p>In Q1 2021, Xiaomi continued to rank third globally, shipping 49.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 69.1%. Revenue was RMB51.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.8%. According to Canalys statistics, mainland China<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Mobile phone shipments increased by 74.6% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e53162e6da1570c4bca3be410b3be7a9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since gradually recovering from the impact of the pandemic in Q3 2020, Xiaomi's mobile phone sales have remained at a high level of over 40 million units. Next quarter, it is expected to exceed 50 million units, and its quarterly mobile phone revenue will also exceed 50 billion yuan for the first time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e272198bb6e753ea90190ede9f90b1aa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"615\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Compared to the numbers, the high-end story that Xiaomi has been telling has finally achieved results in the first season.</p><p>The financial report disclosed that global shipments of smartphones priced at RMB 3,000 or above in mainland China and priced at EUR 300 or above overseas exceeded 4 million units. Xiaomi's market share of smartphones priced between RMB 4,000 and RMB 6,000 increased from 5.5% in the same period last year to 16.1% this quarter, tripling its share and finally no longer being the \"others\" in the high-end market.</p><p>The gross profit margin has also improved to 12.9%, compared to around 8% in the same period last year. It is still not particularly high, but it is a good improvement for Xiaomi.</p><p>Xiaomi's high-end model, the 11 series, this year truly gives it confidence to say that it has established itself in the high-end market. As of the end of April, the global order volume for the Xiaomi 11 series exceeded 3 million units. According to third-party data, the Xiaomi 11 series ranks first in sales among Android phones priced between RMB 4,000 and 6,000 in mainland China.</p><p>The Xiaomi 11 truly deserves the title of \"flagship goalkeeper,\" meaning that those with the same price are not as good as mine, and those that are better than mine are not as cheap as mine. Of course, if I had to say, the Xiaomi 11 still continues its \"cost-effectiveness\" strategy among high-end phones. The 11 Ultra's sales are not as good as the 11, and Xiaomi still needs to figure out how to improve its truly high-end products. The 11 series is indeed selling quite well. I'll leave it to later models to explore further.</p><p>Since the beginning of this year, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have collectively raised prices. Due to the impact of Huawei mobile phones, the Chinese mobile phone market, especially the high-end market, has given up a large market share. Who wouldn't want to take advantage of this lucrative market? Xiaomi has indeed seized some of these opportunities, but this also raises questions about whether Xiaomi's high-end strategy has truly succeeded or whether it has just \"gotten a bargain\".</p><p>This question can only be answered by more expensive \"true flagships\" in the future.</p><p>High-volume devices have always been Xiaomi's strength. Today, Redmi released its best-selling model, the Note 10 series, which will be reflected in its financial reports for the second and third quarters. The performance of various companies on June 18th is also the most important milestone in the second quarter's performance.</p><p>While Xiaomi made some gains in the high-end market, it failed to take advantage of the market share in China, and OPPO formed a leading group. This is also why Xiaomi has begun to relentlessly pursue offline channels this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/959a710b9ca1d21cd1200930e1fc6f66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Xiaomi's overseas smartphones continued to grow steadily, with India remaining number one. Countries with strong businesses such as Eastern Europe and Spain also maintained their top position. It is estimated that there is no hope of breaking through to third place in the Western European market for the time being. As in the previous quarter, Xiaomi's revenue from overseas still accounted for about half.</p><p>The strong performance of its mobile phone business has been accompanied by Xiaomi's internet business. With Xiaomi's internet advertising business hitting a new record high in a single quarter, generating revenue of RMB 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.3%, and both the number of MIUI users and overseas internet revenue increasing, Xiaomi's internet model is no longer a new concept and is now a stable source of revenue.</p><p>In the IoT sector, performance was normal, lower than the high of over 20 billion yuan in Q4 last year, mainly due to capacity issues caused by a global chip shortage. Xiaomi released the 86-inch Redmi Master in the first quarter of this year, which was priced at 7,999 yuan at the time of its release, but has now risen to 9,999 yuan, highlighting the supply problem. The good news is that Q4 data last year showed that air purifiers and smart door locks held the largest market share, while vacuum cleaners...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>The second-largest market share, the bad news is that Xiaomi's IoT business, which declined quarter-on-quarter, has few highlights. Xiaomi's large appliance business (white goods), excluding TVs, is generally strong and has not been mentioned in its financial reports for several quarters.</p><p>In summary, Xiaomi's record revenue this quarter was mainly contributed by its mobile phone business, which saw shipments increase by nearly 10 million units quarter-on-quarter. With increased shipments and improved ASP, Xiaomi's performance this quarter has been satisfactory to the market.</p><p>Let's look at some interesting data:</p><p>In its financial report, Xiaomi mentioned its car manufacturing business for the first time, but there wasn't much additional information. It was still about the investment amount: an initial investment of 10 billion RMB and an investment of 10 billion USD over the next ten years. In 2020, Xiaomi's cash reserves were 108 billion yuan, and in the first quarter of this year, they were 34.3 billion yuan. In the short term, there is still enough money to invest in car manufacturing.</p><p>In terms of R&D, Xiaomi's R&D expenditure reached RMB 3 billion in Q1 2021, a year-on-year increase of 61.0%. It's common knowledge that R&D is essential for developing high-end products, and Xiaomi is willing to spend money, such as...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>For the customized CMOS GN2, Xiaomi stated that the R&D expenses were 200 million yuan.</p><p>As of Q1, Xiaomi had invested in more than 320 companies with a total book value of RMB 51.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%. The net investment profit in the first quarter was RMB 400 million. With the market recovering, Xiaomi's investment business has also maintained good growth.</p><p>Xiaomi's salary expenses in the first quarter were 3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. The number of full-time employees is 23,410, of which 14,921 employees hold equity incentives.</p><p>Xiaomi recently launched its largest campus recruitment campaign since its inception. High-end mobile phones, overseas markets, car manufacturing, IoT... Xiaomi's various businesses still have room for growth. Since Q2 of last year, Xiaomi has been in a stable growth phase. However, at the same time, its domestic market share and how to enter the top two in Western Europe have been problems that have not been resolved for several quarters.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/430756.html\">虎嗅</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28d68465ce2683dfa247c7220957b7bf","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/430756.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138489451","content_text":"小米再创新高。\n2021年5月26日，小米集团公布2021年第一季度业绩。营收达人民币769亿元，同比增长54.7%，上市以来历史新高，经调整净利润人民币61亿元，同比增长163.8%，同样也是历史新高。\n\n收入及利润均有翻倍的同比增长，主要是因为去年疫情影响，基数较低。利润环比的话就差不多在同一水平线了。截至今日，小米每股28.15港元，维持在近三个月来的高位水平。\n\n手机、IoT、互联网依然是目前小米营收的三驾马车。而 2021 的故事，主要是手机，今年以来，手机市场涨价明显，竞争激烈。即便小米如今最后关注的业务可能是造车，但这季度支撑小米财报的，是屡屡被质疑的手机业务。\n2021年Q1，小米手机继续排在全球第三，出货量 4940 万台，同比增长 69.1%。收入人民币 515 亿元，同比增长 69.8%。据 Canalys 统计，中国大陆地区智能手机出货量同比增长 74.6%。\n\n从2020年Q3逐渐摆脱疫情影响后，小米手机就一直在4000万部以上的高位了，下个季度有望突破5000万，手机季度收入也是首次突破了500亿。\n\n与数字相比较，小米一直在讲的高端故事，在第一季也终于有了成绩。\n财报中披露，在中国大陆地区定价在人民币3000元或以上，及境外定价在300欧元及以上智能手机全球出货量超400万台。小米定价在人民币4000元至6000元区间的智能手机市场份额，由去年同期的5.5%提升至本季度的16.1%，份额翻了三倍，终于不再是高端市场的 others。\n毛利率也提升到了 12.9%，去年同期是 8% 左右，依然不算特别高，但对于小米来说已经是不错的提升。\n小米今年高端机型 11 系列，算是真正有底气说站稳了高端市场，截至四月底，小米 11 系列全球订单量突破300万台，根据第三方数据，小米11系列在中国大陆定价人民币4000元至6000元的安卓手机中销量排名第一。\n小米 11 确实算是配得上这个“旗舰守门员”的称呼，即跟我一样价格的没我好，比我好的没我便宜，当然，硬要说的话，小米 11 依然是在高端机中延续“性价比玩法”。11 Ultra 的销量是不如 11 的，小米的真高端还得继续琢磨怎么提升。11 系列确实卖的还行，再进一步上探，就交给之后的机型吧。\n今年以来，国产手机集体涨价，由于华为手机收到冲击，中国手机市场尤其是高端市场，让出了一大块位置，谁不想吃掉这一块肥肉呢？小米确确实实算是抓住了其中的一些机会，但这也会让外界产生疑惑，小米的高端战略，到底是真的成功了，还只是“捡了便宜”呢？\n这个问题，只能有之后更贵的“真旗舰”来回答。\n走量机器方面是小米的一贯优势，今天红米发布了最畅销的机型 Note 10 系列，二三季度的财报中会有体现，6.18 各家的战绩也是二季度业绩最重要的节点。\n小米高端市场有所斩获的同时，并没能乘胜在中国市场的份额上更进一步，OV 组成了领先集团。而这也是小米今年以来开始死磕线下渠道的原因所在。\n\n小米境外手机继续稳定增长，印度还是第一，东欧、西班牙之类业务突出的国家也保持了头名的位置，西欧市场的第三名估计暂时是没希望突破了。和上个季度一样，小米来自海外的收入依然占到了一半左右。\n手机业务的强势伴随而来的，还有小米的互联网业务。随着小米互联网广告业务，再创单季度历史新高，收入人民币 39 亿元，同比增长46.3%，同时 MIUI 用户数、来自海外的互联网收入都有所提升，小米的互联网模式不再是新鲜概念，如今已经是稳定的营收来源。\nIoT 方面则是正常发挥，不如去年 Q4 超 200 亿元的高位，主要是全球缺芯导致的产能问题。小米今年一季度发布的红米大师 86 寸，发布之时 7999 元，如今已经涨到了 9999 元，供应问题可见一斑。好消息是，去年 Q4 数据显示空气净化器、智能门锁产品市场份额第一，扫地机器人市场份额第二，坏消息是环比下跌的 IoT 业务亮点不多，小米除电视以外的大家电业务（白电）泛善可陈，好几个季度的财报中都未见提及。\n总而言之，小米这季度创纪录的营收，主要是由出货量环比提升近 1000 万部的手机业务贡献。出货量走高，ASP 提升，小米手机这季度的答卷足够让市场满意。\n再来看一些有意思的数据：\n财报中，小米第一次提及了造车业务，不过并没有太多额外信息，还是投资的金额：初期投资 100 亿人民币，未来十年投入 100 亿美元。2020 年，小米现金储备量 1080 亿，今年一季度则是 343 亿元，短期来看投资到造车中的钱还是足够的。\n研发方面，2021 年 Q1 小米研发开支达到了人民币 30 亿元，同比增长 61.0%，做高端必须要靠研发，这是常识，小米也舍得花钱，比如和三星定制的 CMOS GN2，小米就表示研发费用是 2 亿。\n截至 Q1，小米共投资超过 320 家公司，总账面价值人民币 519 亿元，同比增长 60.8%，一季度投资净利 4 亿人民币，市场复苏，小米的投资业务也维持着不错的增长。\n吃瓜群众最喜欢的薪资环节，小米一季度薪酬开支 34 亿元，较2020年第四季度增加10.5%。全职员工数量 23410，其中 14921 名员工持有股权激励。\n小米最近也开启了成立以来规模最大的校招。高端手机、海外市场、造车、IoT……小米的各项业务都还能看到增长空间。从去年 Q2 至今小米一直处在稳定增长的阶段，但与此同时，国内市场的份额，西欧市场如何进入前二，也是几个季度以来都没能解决的问题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
