U.S. stock indices closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record closing high. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that negotiations with Iran have made some progress, though he could not guarantee an agreement would be reached. He added that if a "good deal" cannot be achieved, "everyone knows" the other options available to the United States.
**U.S. Stocks** The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 276.31 points, or 0.55%, to close at 50,285.66. The Nasdaq Composite gained 22.74 points, or 0.09%, ending at 26,293.10. The S&P 500 increased by 12.75 points, or 0.17%, settling at 7,445.72. NVIDIA (NVDA.US) fell 1.8%, IBM (IBM.US) surged 12%, ARM Holdings (ARM.US) jumped 16%, and SanDisk (SNDK.US) rose 10%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.5%, while XPeng (XPEV.US) gained 3%.
**European Stocks** Germany's DAX 30 index declined by 118.75 points, or 0.48%, to 24,613.53. The UK's FTSE 100 rose by 14.14 points, or 0.14%, to 10,446.48. France's CAC 40 fell by 31.42 points, or 0.39%, to 8,086.00. The Euro Stoxx 50 dropped by 17.12 points, or 0.29%, to 5,958.95. Spain's IBEX 35 decreased by 60.65 points, or 0.34%, to 17,970.45. Italy's FTSE MIB edged down by 15.16 points, or 0.03%, to 49,166.50.
**Asian Stocks** Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 3.14%, South Korea's KOSPI gained 8.42%, India's Sensex fell 0.18%, and Singapore's Straits Times Index was slightly higher.
**U.S. Dollar Index** The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.17% to settle at 99.257. By the end of New York trading, one euro traded at $1.1612, down from $1.1631 the previous day. One British pound traded at $1.3426, down from $1.3442. One U.S. dollar bought 159.08 Japanese yen, up from 158.84; 0.7874 Swiss francs, up from 0.7868; 1.3783 Canadian dollars, up from 1.3749; and 9.3501 Swedish kronor, up from 9.3324.
**Cryptocurrencies** Bitcoin hovered near $77,000, trading around $77,615. Ethereum showed little movement, trading around $2,133.1.
**Crude Oil** The July delivery light crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.91 to settle at $96.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.94%. The July delivery Brent crude futures contract on the London ICE Futures Exchange fell $2.44 to settle at $102.58 per barrel, a drop of 2.32%.
**Precious Metals** Spot gold showed little change, trading around $4,542.71 per ounce. Spot silver traded around $76.669 per ounce.
**Macro News** **Rubio: Progress in U.S.-Iran Talks, No Guarantee on Deal** U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated on the 21st that negotiations with Iran have made some progress, but he could not guarantee an agreement would be reached. He added that if a "good deal" cannot be achieved, "everyone knows" the other options available to the United States. Rubio made these remarks while traveling from Miami, Florida, to Sweden for a NATO foreign ministers' meeting. He told reporters at the airport that the primary goal of the U.S. President is to secure a "good deal," and the U.S. "will do everything possible to achieve this goal." However, he noted, "the President has also made clear that if a good deal cannot be reached, he has other options." Rubio said that while there have been some positive signs, he did not want to appear overly optimistic. "So, let's see what happens in the coming days."
**Trump Again Threatens Iran to Surrender Enriched Uranium, Suggests Possible Destruction** U.S. President Trump told reporters at the White House on the 21st that Iran must surrender its highly enriched uranium, and the U.S. would likely destroy it upon receipt. Responding to a reporter's question, Trump said, "We will get that highly enriched uranium. We don't need it, we don't want it. We will likely destroy it when we get it; we won't let them have it." He added that negotiations with Iran are ongoing, and the outcome remains to be seen. Trump has previously threatened Iran multiple times regarding its enriched uranium. According to a U.S. report on the 10th, Trump stated that the U.S. has been monitoring Iran's enriched uranium buried in ruins, with the U.S. Space Force responsible for this task.
**Fed's Barkin: Repeated Supply Shocks Testing the 'Anchoring' of Inflation Expectations** Federal Reserve official Barkin stated that the ability of businesses and consumers to withstand the latest round of supply shocks will determine whether the U.S. central bank can continue to "ignore" higher inflation without choosing to raise interest rates. In prepared remarks for a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Thursday, Barkin said, "With inflation having been above our 2% target for more than five consecutive years, it is necessary to consider whether the cumulative effect of so many rounds of shocks could cause the 'anchor' of inflation expectations to loosen." He added, "For me, the key question is how much more pressure businesses, consumers, and inflation expectations can bear." Barkin also expressed increasing concern that the U.S. may have entered a "new phase" where supply shocks become more frequent. These shocks could stem from multiple factors, including heightened geopolitical tensions, fragmentation of the trade system, more extreme weather events, rising government debt, and other structural forces. He noted that, for now, the Fed's monetary policy stance is "in a good place" to address risks related to both the labor market and inflation.
**U.S. Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level Since Last August** U.S. mortgage rates rose this week to their highest level since last August, delivering another blow to homebuyers during what is typically the busiest season for real estate sales. Freddie Mac reported on Thursday that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 6.51% this week, up from 6.36% last week. Additionally, rising costs for home insurance and property taxes in many regions are deterring buyers. The increase in mortgage rates this year has reversed the downward trend seen in the second half of 2025. Nevertheless, current mortgage rates remain below year-ago levels, and some buyers are entering the market while it is quieter. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, purchase mortgage application volume fell last week compared to the previous week but was up 8% year-over-year.
**U.S. Stock Rally Concentration Hits 35-Year High, Analysts Warn of Potential Pause** Driven by AI optimism and strong earnings, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit record highs. However, the breadth of this rally remains notably narrow, with most gains concentrated in large-cap technology stocks. UBS analysts pointed out that in the six weeks ending May 15th, the outperformance of the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 index relative to the equal-weight S&P 500 index reached its largest margin in at least 35 years. Given that a significant portion of market value growth is driven by large AI-focused tech stocks, UBS advises investors to reduce overly concentrated positions and guard against concentration risk. UBS also suggested that as the earnings season winds down and market focus shifts back to unresolved Middle East tensions, the market may enter a period of consolidation. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, stated that she has been monitoring the market breadth issue, noting that most gains are concentrated in a handful of tech companies "priced for perfection." She warned, "If anything goes wrong with their pricing logic, we could see a crash reminiscent of a bubble bursting."
**Individual Stock News** **Prediction Market Bets: SpaceX Valuation Could Exceed $2 Trillion** Traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are betting that SpaceX's market capitalization at its public listing is almost certain to exceed $1 trillion, with a 73% probability of surpassing $2 trillion. These bets are tied to the company's closing market cap on its first day of trading. SpaceX plans to list in June, with a target valuation expected to exceed $1.5 trillion. Furthermore, data from Polymarket shows a 17% probability of its market cap exceeding $3 trillion and a 2% probability of exceeding $4 trillion. The prediction market for SpaceX's valuation went live approximately two weeks ago, but currently, trading volume for related contracts is light, which may indicate skepticism about these probabilities. If SpaceX's market cap does exceed $2 trillion, its size would surpass at least two of the "Magnificent Seven" U.S. stocks: Meta Platforms (META.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US), which currently have market capitalizations of approximately $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion, respectively.
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