Sea Limited: Engaging Wars On Multiple Fronts

Seeking Alpha2022-01-03

SummaryShopee is taking a long-term approach by re-investing its margins to expand into new markets and pursue more market share.While Garena growth seems to be tapering down, we do not think its ...

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Comments

JPStudio
2022-01-04
JPStudio
Nice article. Written clearly.
LohYK
2022-01-04
LohYK
This is a critical time for SE, any screw up will see downgrades and competitor will catch up quickly
Muppy
2022-01-03
Muppy
Long term hold for me. Multibagger
vttoh
2022-01-03
vttoh
Detail analysis.. volatile exciting..
Kucing
2022-01-03
Kucing
No leggings
- Kucing:
  yes
CCCH
2022-01-03
CCCH
Great analysis. Sea may grows more than $350. Cheers

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Throughout the years, Sea Limited has been reinvesting aggressively into their business to capture market share rapidly and grow their user base in every region. Starting out from Singapore, they have since achieved a respectable presence in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and most recently in Latin America. In this article, we will be unpacking Sea Limited Q3’21 results, as we share our thoughts on the quarter. Do also head to the previous article we have written for Sea Limited.GarenaSource: Sea Quarterly ReportIn Q3’21, Garena’s quarterly active users (“QAU”) grew 0.5% sequentially to 729 million, a slowdown in users growth due the law of large numbers. Bookings growth has also stagnated as a result. More users are increasingly transitioning into paying users as the paying user ratio (“PUR”) rose to 12.8%. Based on the low PUR, there is still a large opportunity to convert its existing user base into paying users.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportNext, Garena’s average revenue per paying user (“ARPPU”) continues to taper down to $12.88, and that is likely due to most users coming from India and Latin America with much lower spending power. We will not rule out the possibility that Garena may increase the pricing of its in-game items to increase its monetization. Over time, the two key metrics that we should be measuring closely are PUR and ARPPU, and both tell us whether Garena can improve its monetizing capabilities to sustain its growth rate.Source: SensortowerWhat is impressive during the quarter is that Garena Free Fire (“FF”) revenue per download (“RPD”) heavily surpassed its rivals in the United States, even though it has a much smaller user base. And despite PUBG re-launching in India in Q2'21, FF is still leading by the highest RPD, as well as app rankings, showing that it has better monetization capabilities than its peers. According to SensorTower, FF was also the top five most downloaded games worldwide for six consecutive quarters, and in Q3’21, it was ranked as top three. With the game nearing five years of operation, this removes any doubt that its growth has peaked, and it is well on its way to building an enduring franchise.Source: Free Fire TwitterGarena Free Fire Max, an enhanced version of the current FF game was also launched in the quarter. Interestingly, what caught our eye was the introduction of a new feature called “Craftland”, where FF offers a “platform” for users to unleash their creativity through creating their own maps and inviting their friends over to play. This helps to increase social interaction, engagements, and also the stickiness of the game. As of today, it has over 4.57 million downloads on Google Play Store and it has a high review of over 4 stars. If we head over to Youtube, there are plenty of videos related to “Craftland”, showing how well received it is by the FF community. Looking ahead, Garena seeks to introduce more content, features, modes, and gameplays to sustain its existing strong base of users.On top of that, Garena’s strong global presence has also received accelerated interest from worldwide studios looking to partner up with them, and management states that they are working on new ideas in the pipeline.ShopeeExpansion into other marketsSource: Shopee IndiaShopee has also expanded into multiple markets, including France,Poland,Spain,India, and also Argentina. If we head to the websites, there are a few common traits that we observed, and that is Shopee replicating its playbook by giving out free shipping, free commission (to sellers), cashback, and vouchers across its platform to entice users to use the platform and to spur the flywheel effect. This has proven to work in countries in SEA and Brazil, as evident from its market leadership.Operating and Financial MetricsSource: Sea Quarterly ReportShopee recorded a growth rate of 80% which saw its GMV reach US$16.8 billion. Recently, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has disclosed the LTM revenue of Lazada, which is US$21 billion, up 60% YOY. By comparison, Shopee LTM GMV grew 90% YOY to $US56 billion, heavily surpassing that of its rival.There are also signs of improving monetization as the take-rate increased sequentially to 8.93% during the quarter. As Shopee scales larger over time, it has the ability to increase its take-rate without losing its sellers as it is able to bring higher sales volume to its sellers than any other platform.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportBased on the total addressable market (“TAM”) of US$260 billion GMV, Shopee is the clear market leader with 21% of the TAM, followed by Lazada's 8%. This shows how quickly Shopee has been gobbling up market share, making it an undisputed leader in the region.Source: Google TrendData from Google Trend also shows that Shopee continues to lead ahead of Lazada and Tokopedia. Interestingly, Alibaba’s management has also laid out a goal to achieve a $US 100 billion GMV, although a timeline is not given. Alibaba is re-focusing its attention on the Southeast Asia market.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportShopee’s order volume grew 129% YOY, which is its ninth-consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth rate. By comparison, Lazada’s order growth rate was only 82%. This tells us that users are spending more on Shopee than Lazada, which is not surprising due to Shopee’s overwhelming consumers’ mindshare. To get an outlook into next quarter’s results, Shopee recorded 13 times more items sold on an average day in the first 2 hours of its 12.12 event promotion, revealing how successful the campaign was.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportThe average order value (\"AOV\") continues to decline to $9.88 in the quarter. In our view, this is not a cause for worry. In the newer markets that Shopee has expanded into, users tend to start with smaller purchases with lower AOV. Over time, as they established more trust with the platform, they will increasingly move towards purchasing higher-ticket items.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportTurning to profitability, Shopee’s gross profit margin (“GPM”) was 26.72%, compared to 31.94% in Q2’21. This was largely due to the higher cost of revenue in the quarter, including higher logistic costs associated with order growth and value-added services such as inventory management and fulfillment services provided to customers.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportSales and marketing expenses (“S&M”) expenses increased 124% YOY to $689 million, as Shopee ramp up its S&M efforts to capture more market share across its existing and new markets. As a result, S&M expenses as a % of GMV continue to fluctuate at 4.10%. Considering that some of its operating markets are in the early stages, investments may increase if the management spots any clear opportunities.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportAs a result of the lower gross profit and higher S&M expenses, Shopee’s adjusted loss per order fluctuates at a negative $0.40 in the quarter. This is notable considering Shopee entered many new countries with zero monetization, and took its profits from its matured markets to finance S&M expenses in the newer markets.This is supported by a statement by Chief Corporate Officer Wang in Q2 2021:In terms of positive EBITDA from Malaysia, again, we're very happy to report that Malaysia has become the second market to achieve positive EBITDA after Taiwan for our Shopee business. And of course, it is followed by the results of better monetization over time as well as improving operational efficiency over time. As we stressed before that the marketplace e-commerce model in terms of profitability is highly proven and with scale and strong market leadership and ability to deliver a clear and increasing value to our seller communities, we will be able to make a strong profit down the road. And this is basically generating value to our communities and, by that, will generate value to our shareholders as well.Battle with the IncumbentsWhile Shopee expands aggressively, it is also important to consider the competitive landscape across its markets, and that includes the incumbent Allegro, a 20-year-old well-established local e-commerce platform in Poland, and Mercado Libre, the biggest e-commerce platform across Latin America (“LATAM”), particularly in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.Latin AmericaAccording to Similarweb, Shopee’s web traffic is increasing steadily across LATAM, which include Colombia,Mexico, and Brazil, although MELI is leading by a wide margin.Top shopping app in Colombia, Source: SensorTowerHowever, based on the app rankings on SensorTower, Shopee has surpassed and overtook MELI as the top shopping app across Mexico,Chile, Colombia, and Brazil. This was accomplished within a span of 6 months, excluding its operation in Brazil.Source: InstagramAlternatively, we can also track their social media followers as this gives us a sense of Shopee’s brand awareness in the region. As of ending Dec 2021, it has more followers than Mercardo in Colombia and Brazil, with Chile and Mexico coming close.PolandFigure - Shopee is the #1 shopping app in Poland, Source: SensortowerSimilarly in Poland, Shopee follows the same footprint whereby Allegro’s (WSE:ALE) web traffic leads by a mile, but it was overtaken by Shopee as the number one shopping app, and this was achieved within 3 months since Shopee was launched. In addition, Shopee and Allegro have 12.8k and 68k Instagram followers, respectively.Although Allegro has over 10 million downloads on Google Play Store, this is insignificant considering that it is only a fraction of its total website visits of 222 million. This may suggest that there is lesser focus and emphasis on the mobile app.Shopee Concluding ThoughtsIt is not surprising to see this data surfaced because users in Poland and LATAM are more accustomed to shopping on the browser, and so there was much less emphasis on mobile. Therefore, Shopee leveraged its mobile-first approach, capitalizing on the opportunity and that has proven to be successful based on the data from third-party sources.While investors seem to be concerned that Shopee is fighting too many wars on its front, including its expansion into India, Argentina, and France, the management has demonstrated that they are capable enough to execute given its strong localization capabilities. This long-term approach to sacrifice short-term profitability and pursue additional market share are also well-aligned to the shareholders.Digital Finance - SeaMoneySource: Sea Quarterly ReportIn Q3’21, SeaMoney’s total payment volume (“TPV”) grew 119% YOY to reach $4.6 billion, and this was mainly driven by the increase in customers’ adoption of ShopeePay. There are also improvements in monetization as take-rate increased to 2.9% from 0.7% in Q3’20, and as a result, revenue grew at a staggering rate of over 800% YOY.Source: Own's GraphDuring the earnings call, the management also talked about an inherent flywheel effect in SeaMoney, that as more merchants join ShopeePay, the number of use cases increases. This encourages consumers to use ShopeePay and thus drives further adoption. When the user base grows larger and larger, more merchants expressed their interest to get on board, accelerating the acquisition on both sides (merchants and consumers) of the business. Users also get additional benefits such as cashback and vouchers, which help to spur the network effect. Over time, customer acquisition costs (“CAC”) will also come down as more users join organically.ShopeePay’s use cases include bill payments, contactless payment at offline retails, paying for taxi rides (i.e. partnership with Blue Bird Taxi in Indonesia), and many more.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportS&M expenses increased 65% YoY as SeaMoney drives more adoption to its mobile wallet business. However, S&M expenses as a % of TPV have reduced to 4.26% from 5.64% a year ago, showing sales efficiency as lower marketing spending are translating into higher revenue growth. If we add back the S&M expenses to its adjusted EBITDA, its normalized margin for this quarter is actually 27.8%. This shows that its margin is artificially depressed as the management is intentionally spending on S&M to grow its market share.Source: Sea Quarterly ReportAs of Q3’21, the number of quarterly paying users (“QPU”) reached 39.7 million, a 20% sequential growth from Q2’21. This existing user base is important as its digital bank is set to launch in 2022.Diving deeper, we can get a glimpse into the upcoming financial products that will be launched based on Linkedin’s job openings, and that includes insurance,wealth management,prepaid cards, and as well as credit services revolving around repayment loans and revolving credits. And in Sep 2021, SeaMoney also launched its digital bank app in Indonesia.RisksThe slowdown in Garena’s growth rateAs Garena’s growth starts to taper down, it is important for us to track whether the PUR and ARPPU are increasing over time as these tell us whether they are improving their monetization capabilities.However, we do not expect growth to decline drastically due to the highly engaging nature of the game, and as well as new ideas in the pipeline.Shopee aggressive expansion into new marketsShopee entry into new markets and the competitive pressure may accelerate its cash burn rate and erode its profit margin over time. However, we believe the risk is mitigated for a few reasons — due to the hefty $11.2 billion cash on its balance sheet, cash cow of Garena, and not to mention, Shopee is also profitable on a GPM basis.Going forward, we should track Shopee’s website traffic,app rankings,google trends,social media followings to see if these investments are translating into results.ValuationTo calculate the intrinsic value of Sea Group, we will be using the sum-of-the-parts (“SOTP”) valuation model and some comparables.Source: Morningstar, OutlookIndiaGarena ValuationSource: Own EstimatesTo determine a reasonable multiple to assign to Garena, we cross-reference to other gaming peers such as Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) and Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI), which are trading at roughly 18x multiple. Considering that both companies are growing much faster, and growth rate in Q3’21, an implied multiple of 18x and a forward growth rate of 25% are reasonable. Therefore, Garena is worth approximately $63.83 billion.Shopee ValuationLooking at comparable transactions of Flipkart, Tokopedia, and Lazada, along with assessing the quality of each business, we think of a fair multiple of EV/GMV as 1x.Source: Own EstimatesWith an implied EV/GMV of 1x, and a forward 100% growth rate on Shopee’s last 12 months (“LTM”) GMV of $56 billion, Shopee is worth $112.6 billion.SeaMoney ValuationSource: Own EstimatesReferencing from matured peers such as Paypal (NASDAQ: PYPL) with an operating margin of 25% and take-rate of 2.3%, we think that these financial metrics are achievable for SeaMoney. With a forward growth rate of 100% based on Q3’21 results, considering that it is still in the early stages and yet to launch its digital bank, this gives us an implied EV/TPV of 0.3x.Source: Own EstimatesWith an implied EV/TPV of 0.3x, and a growth of 100% on the annualized TPV (based on Q3’21 TPV), SeaMoney is worth $11 billion.Entire BusinessSource: Own EstimatesAfter calculating the individual business segments, this gives us a market cap of $196.9 billion for the entire business, after accounting for cash and debt. With shares outstanding of 576 million, after factoring in 4% dilution, this gives us an intrinsic value of $341.33 per share, a 55.4% upside from the current share price.ConclusionShopee continues to extend its market leadership position by pursuing new growth opportunities in new markets. While Shopee seems to be fighting too many wars on its front, it has demonstrated that it has strong localization capabilities and the know-how to expand overseas as Shopee tops the shopping app across Latin America and Poland within a short span of 3 to 6 months. However, the incumbents are still leading by website traffic, and it is still early to judge whether Shopee could be a real threat to its rivals.Next, while Garena’s growth seems to be slowing down, we do not think its growth has reached its peak because of its strong growth exhibited in the US, paying user ratio of only 12.8%, and potential games in the pipelines. With the management track record of creating highly engaging content on FF, we believe it can be an enduring franchise for years to come, with growth likely not to taper down so quickly.The management is intentionally suppressing SeaMoney’s margins by ramping up the S&M efforts to drive more adoption to its mobile wallet business. However, they have demonstrated sales efficiency as S&M as % of revenue is declining YOY. With the digital bank set to launch in Singapore in FY2022, we believe SeaMoney is still in the early stages of growth.Finally, based on our estimation, we believe Sea Group is worth $341.33 per share. This is a 55.4% upside from the current share price.This article was written by Superstocks Seekers.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9001407548,"gmtCreate":1641293878613,"gmtModify":1676533593815,"author":{"id":"4093844010993360","authorId":"4093844010993360","name":"JPStudio","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4093844010993360","authorIdStr":"4093844010993360"},"htmlText":"Nice article. Written clearly.&nbsp;","listText":"Nice article. Written clearly.&nbsp;","text":"Nice article. Written clearly.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001407548","repostId":1171608797,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9001626345,"gmtCreate":1641250616446,"gmtModify":1676533587170,"author":{"id":"3568070265339857","authorId":"3568070265339857","name":"LohYK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6add0343094f5e965e831fa432314ef","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3568070265339857","authorIdStr":"3568070265339857"},"htmlText":"This is a critical time for SE, any screw up will see downgrades and competitor will catch up quickly","listText":"This is a critical time for SE, any screw up will see downgrades and competitor will catch up quickly","text":"This is a critical time for SE, any screw up will see downgrades and competitor will catch up quickly","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001626345","repostId":1171608797,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9001886209,"gmtCreate":1641217729756,"gmtModify":1676533583816,"author":{"id":"3578278614559162","authorId":"3578278614559162","name":"Muppy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd92f5e7a1327b1a0a9b7333dafa96","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3578278614559162","authorIdStr":"3578278614559162"},"htmlText":"Long term hold for me. Multibagger","listText":"Long term hold for me. Multibagger","text":"Long term hold for me. Multibagger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001886209","repostId":1171608797,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":692737586,"gmtCreate":1641214802888,"gmtModify":1676532518589,"author":{"id":"4101538323380760","authorId":"4101538323380760","name":"vttoh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bc97cdf909c5a5438bfe35c2968b6537","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4101538323380760","authorIdStr":"4101538323380760"},"htmlText":"Detail analysis.. volatile exciting..","listText":"Detail analysis.. volatile exciting..","text":"Detail analysis.. volatile exciting..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/692737586","repostId":1171608797,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":692737037,"gmtCreate":1641214567958,"gmtModify":1676532518573,"author":{"id":"3584520268259172","authorId":"3584520268259172","name":"Kucing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c4942db49a9ed9bfaecacc7837dec2f","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3584520268259172","authorIdStr":"3584520268259172"},"htmlText":"No leggings&nbsp;","listText":"No leggings&nbsp;","text":"No leggings","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/692737037","repostId":1171608797,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7151467,"gmtCreate":1641214590465,"gmtModify":1663239376731,"authorId":3584520268259172,"author":{"id":3584520268259172,"idStr":"3584520268259172","authorId":3584520268259172,"name":"Kucing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c4942db49a9ed9bfaecacc7837dec2f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-2","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"Executive Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $300,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.30","exceedPercentage":"80.04%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":692737037,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9001813923,"gmtCreate":1641214554376,"gmtModify":1676533583492,"author":{"id":"3579259217271611","authorId":"3579259217271611","name":"CCCH","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579259217271611","authorIdStr":"3579259217271611"},"htmlText":"Great analysis.&nbsp; Sea may grows more than $350. Cheers&nbsp;","listText":"Great analysis.&nbsp; Sea may grows more than $350. Cheers&nbsp;","text":"Great analysis. Sea may grows more than $350. 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