美国10月非农远超预期、失业率升至3.7%，释放什么信号？

第一财经2022-11-04

野村美国研究团队对第一财经表示，周期性行业的月度就业增长已经明显放缓，并且面临包括楼市回调以及工业衰退在内的重大逆风因素。当地时间4日，美国劳工统计局公布的最新数据显示，美国10月新增非农就业人口26.1万，尽管这是2020年12月以来的最小增幅，但仍超远预期值20.5万，前值被上修为31.5万。相较于历史水平，当前美国的就业增长依旧处于高位，今年以来，平均每月新增就业人口40.7万，而在疫情前的...

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WaiGuan
2022-11-05
WaiGuan
k
AhSong
2022-11-05
AhSong
好
Mingzu
2022-11-04
Mingzu
[微笑]
- Mingzu:
  [开心]
liuxiangwei
2022-11-04
liuxiangwei
[微笑]
- liuxiangwei:
  [微笑]
yuliang559
2022-11-04
yuliang559
[微笑]
- yuliang559:
  [微笑]
hangyuliang
2022-11-04
hangyuliang
[微笑]
- hangyuliang:
  [微笑]

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Tool），截至第一财经记者发稿时，交易员预测美联储在12月第五次加息75个基点的概率较前一日有所上升，升至52.8%，加息50个基点的概率为47.2%。美联储12月加息概率（图源：芝商所官网）鲍威尔有关就业市场尚未疲软的观点似乎也在这份最新数据中得到回应。在2日利率决议公布后的记者会上，鲍威尔谈及就业时称劳动力市场过热，整体仍然“供需失衡”，薪资增速远高于2%的政策目标，不过他不认为当前通胀数据中存在“工资-价格螺旋”现象，但美联储希望在问题出现之前与之抗争。“一旦你看到它，你就有麻烦了。”他说。尽管紧缩前景不改，美股小幅高开。截至第一财经记者发稿时，道指上涨143.11点，涨幅0.45%，报32144.36点；标普500指数上涨14.85点，涨幅0.40%，报3734.74点；纳指微涨16.64点，涨幅0.16%，报10359.58点。周期性行业就业增长明显放缓分行业来看，医疗保健行业贡献最大就业增长，10月新增岗位5.3万个，专业和商业服务、休闲和酒店行业以及制造业也表现不俗，分别新增岗位4.3万个、3.5万个以及3.2万个。其中，休闲和酒店行业今年以来平均每月新增就业人口7.8万，不及去年平均值19.6万的一半。尽管临近年底假日购物季，但零售行业仅新增岗位7200个，仓储行业甚至减少就业人口两万名。野村美国研究团队对第一财经表示：“周期性行业的月度就业增长已经明显放缓，且面临包括楼市回调以及工业衰退在内的重大逆风因素。此外，服务性行业就业增长放缓的影响也不容小觑。”该机构称，标普全球此前公布美国10月服务业采购经理人指数（PMI），其中的就业指数跌至50下方，是自2020年6月以来首次进入收缩区域，表明服务业劳动力增长失去动能，这可能会显著降低未来每月的非农就业增长。该机构还表示，近期越来越多迹象表明，经济不确定性上升正在影响企业的用人决策以及工人的求职意愿。该机构引述美国劳工统计局的9月《就业机会和劳动力流动调查》(JOLTS)显示，私营部门的招聘率和辞职率均进一步下降。“企业变得更加谨慎，减少职位发布，放慢招聘速度，当经济进一步减速时，企业就会实施裁员。”该机构预期，今年底至2023年，非农就业人数将继续放缓，12月新增就业人口可能跌破10万，明年2月将出现负增长。美国私营部门辞职率和招聘率变化（图源：野村美国研究团队）","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9984888480,"gmtCreate":1667603933640,"gmtModify":1676537942242,"author":{"id":"4093127533784880","authorId":"4093127533784880","name":"WaiGuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24608f5161da7bdf7b4b85fed61fad3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4093127533784880","idStr":"4093127533784880"},"htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984888480","repostId":1174845228,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9984809637,"gmtCreate":1667579968430,"gmtModify":1676537940820,"author":{"id":"3567004043453333","authorId":"3567004043453333","name":"AhSong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cf1ed321a8ef9637c0db44a35c4b163","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567004043453333","idStr":"3567004043453333"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984809637","repostId":1174845228,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9984179166,"gmtCreate":1667576595855,"gmtModify":1676537940414,"author":{"id":"3582685386479633","authorId":"3582685386479633","name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582685386479633","idStr":"3582685386479633"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984179166","repostId":1174845228,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":104660890,"gmtCreate":1667576605339,"gmtModify":1667576618441,"authorId":3582685386479633,"author":{"id":3582685386479633,"idStr":"3582685386479633","authorId":3582685386479633,"name":"Mingzu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c629c36c53878360c505d837193f9e79","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":9984179166,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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