以史为鉴!2022年美股或面临两大风险

川阅全球宏观2021-12-24

1990年至2020年,美股在四季度共经历了6次回调(表1)。而2021年11月以来,在疫情反复、通胀预期升温的背景下,美股恐再次陷入调整的“怪圈”。本文重点复盘了与2021年经济基本面有相似之处的2018年,以史为鉴,展望2022年美股可能面临的风险。 对1990年至2018年6次美股回调中各行业表现的分析显示,防御型板块的表现得到了验证,医疗板块在每次的回调中相对于标普500指数都有超额收益...

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