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2024-10-20

$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$

2022-02-21

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What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?

2022-02-19

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Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks

2022-02-17

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"Inflation" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night

2022-02-16

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One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions

2022-02-14

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CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.

2022-02-12

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2022-02-10

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Layout Web 3.0? Microsoft hiring digital currency executive

2022-02-06

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CITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday

2022-02-01

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Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.

2022-01-20

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2022-01-19

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2022-01-14

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Reminder: US stocks will be closed on January 17th, Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

2022-01-13

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2022-01-09

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2022-01-03

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2022-01-02

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2021-12-30

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Global central banks fight inflation in 2021 and are busy "collecting water" in 2022

2021-12-26

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Learn from history! U.S. stocks may face two major risks in 2022

2021-12-25

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US91282CJE21.BOND\">$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/US91282CJE21.BOND\">$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$美国中期国债 5.000% 2025/10/31(US91282CJE21.BOND)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/362025853567168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097671635,"gmtCreate":1645456247855,"gmtModify":1676534029463,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097671635","repostId":"2213609052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213609052","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645423509,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213609052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 14:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213609052","media":"文涛宏观债券研究","summary":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike and balance sheet reduction are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of each rate hike.</b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation. After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective, implemented a strong tightening policy, strictly controlled monetary increases in the early 1980s, and subsequently turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation rose, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond through rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market. During this period, the Federal Reserve began to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>In response to the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin a rate hike, which led to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply as the stock market crash triggered a recession. Subsequent economic recovery and rising home prices raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to resume its rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy. rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages. The hawkishness far exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>Supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices share commonalities with those of the 1980s; Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, similar to the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the above issues.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have become the core trading logic in overseas markets this year, and are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s, providing a reference for judging this year's trend. The first part of the series will begin with a brief review of the basic situation of each rate hike, including the background, the economic and financial situation they faced, and policy considerations.</p><p><b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles: 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06, and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. monetary policy was in a period of intense change, with Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations theories all dominating. In order to address the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. Entering the 1990s, concerns about high inflation were completely dispelled, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Greenspan's leadership was mainly based on the Taylor rule to regulate the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, global financial markets were constantly turbulent. The Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates during each crisis, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly a withdrawal of previous crisis easing policies. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the level of global monetary easing was unprecedented in history. Currently, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and record-high inflation, and the market has strong expectations for continuous and rapid rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, which almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain disruptions, economic downturn, and high stock and housing prices, the aforementioned rate hike history provides valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shocks</b></p><p><b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation.</b>In the 1960s and 1970s, the dollar system was constantly in turmoil. With the oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, industrial raw material prices rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance between the United States and the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States continues to experience double-digit inflation and sluggish employment, plunging it into a long-term stagflation. In 1964, the inflation rate in the United States was 1%, and the unemployment rate was 5%. Then it rose all the way up. By 1980, the inflation rate was close to 14.5%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 7.5%. In the 1970s, guided by Keynes's idea of \"opportunistic choice,\" the Federal Reserve constantly weighed the two aspects of controlling inflation and protecting employment, resulting in an unclear monetary policy objective, a \"stop-go\" in efforts to control inflation, a continuous decline in public confidence in the economy and government policies, and high inflation expectations that distorted economic behavior. Until inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective and implemented a tough tightening policy.</b>Against the backdrop of the \"stagflation era,\" which lasted for more than a decade, Paul Volcker took office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's policy of making discretionary decisions and stopping and starting, and to make controlling inflation the most important goal, especially to solve the balance of payments problem it brought about.<b>Volcker's policy approach can be divided into two phases: strict control of monetary increases in the early 1980s, followed by a shift to rate hike.</b></p><p>From 1979 to 1981, Volcker followed monetarist ideas, using reducing the money supply as an intermediary goal to strictly control credit, which led to significant fluctuations in the Federal Funds rate, reaching a high of 20% in 1980. That year, it triggered the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. The manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly severely affected. Unemployment in the residential construction industry and the automobile manufacturing industry was 22% and 24% respectively at the end of the year.</p><p>As the unemployment rate rose, the Federal Reserve's policy eased slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply aggressively, and the Federal Funds rate surged to 20% again. As the market expected the Fed to be unable to withstand the pressure of rising unemployment, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this point, Volcker maintained absolute policy resolve, firmly believing that the Federal Reserve would not back down and would maintain its established course of restricting money and credit growth. In 1982, the Federal Reserve shifted its focus back to Federal Funds rate and began publishing its interest rate targets for the first time to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to decline, and by the end of the recession, the inflation rate had fallen below 5%. Over time, the Federal Reserve's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, the unemployment rate fell, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. Between 1983 and 1984, it conducted 13 consecutive rate hike, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the U.S. inflation rate has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Coping with rising inflation and dollar depreciation</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy entered a two-decade period of low inflation and high growth called \"the Great Moderation.\" During this period, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management, and policy effectiveness. The Federal Reserve has begun to more systematically make inflation and the output gap the main considerations in monetary policy, known as the \"Taylor rule\". When output is higher than potential or inflation is higher than target, the Federal Reserve immediately adopts a tight monetary policy, and vice versa. The \"Taylor Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate growth should exceed inflation growth, so the Federal Reserve's response is more decisive and assertive when inflation rises.</p><p><b>With the dollar depreciating and inflation rising, the Federal Reserve is responding through rate hike.</b>From late 1986 to mid-1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, soaring from below 2% to over 4%, while the overall unemployment rate has been steadily declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% from January to September. In August 1987, Greenspan became Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the US stock market experienced a \"Black Monday,\" with the stock market plummeting by 20% in a single day. In an effort to rescue the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut in Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. However, the crisis was short-lived; by the end of the year, the stock market had rebounded rapidly, and the economy had recovered. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary and dollar depreciation pressures. By the end of the rate hike cycle in 1989, the rate hike had risen 21 times by 344 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. February 1994-February 1995: Preventing economic overheating</b></p><p><b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>From 1990 to 1991, the U.S. economy entered another recession. The target federal funds rate was lowered from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Subsequently, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decline, and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve resumed its rate hike cycle in early 1994. The recovery was relatively rapid during the recession around 1991, with quarterly GDP growth rebounding from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showing an upward trend, the stock market soaring, and the S&P 500 rising 47% between 1991 and 1994, indicating that financial markets were showing signs of overheating.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market.</b>Despite broad market expectations for rate hike, the rate hike cycle of 1994 still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of the rate hike, as inflation remained at a market low of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, the interest rate was urgently raised from 3.50% to 3.75%. Subsequently, out of concern about an overheated economy and rising inflation, the Federal Reserve changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach, with 50-75 basis points per rate hike, until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, and a total of 300 basis points per rate hike seven times. The Federal Reserve tightened more than the market expected, and at a faster pace. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was jokingly referred to by the media as a \"bond market massacre\". In the following nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose by 220 basis points, and mortgage rates also rose accordingly. Bankruptcy rates are rising sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was the largest municipal bankruptcy case in U.S. history at the time. Mexico and Argentina are also heading towards financial crises. The Federal Reserve is ending its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve has begun to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved its policy communication. Previously, Greenspan had never released any FOMC meeting statements or materials in order to retain policy flexibility and not be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, as the influence of the rational expectations school in policymaking expanded, the FOMC officially announced its policy changes for the first time in February 1994. Subsequently, the Fed began to clarify its interest rate target in its statements, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the damage caused by the Fed's unexpected move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: From easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>As the Asian financial crisis spread, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the severe market impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite significant volatility in the financial markets, the aforementioned events had little impact on the real economy, and the economy continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy began to take off, wages rose, imports surged, personal consumption increased significantly, the CPI exceeded the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to around 4%. The economies of East Asia and Europe are also showing signs of recovery, and even the South American economy is improving. The internet economy boomed, technology stocks surged, and the Nasdaq index rose from 740 points in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve withdrew its easing measures, and the dot-com bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin rate hike, effectively reversing the rate cuts it had made a year earlier at the height of the financial crisis. Despite the positive economic performance, investors' expectations for rate hike remain insufficient due to insufficient market communication. In this tightening cycle. The Federal Reserve rate hike six times, a total of 175 basis points to 6.5%, followed by the bursting of the tech stock bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cooling down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Federal Reserve to ease significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell by 85%, and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, interest rates were cut six times and four times respectively, bringing the total to 11 in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had fallen from 6.5% to 1%, a level that remained unchanged until June 2004.</p><p><b>Economic recovery and rising home prices have raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, home prices fluctuated upwards, rising 52% from their 2001 low in mid-2004. The S&P 500 also continued to rebound, rising 37% from its 2002 low. This has raised market concerns about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline, while the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating above the 2% target range, which strengthened the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market prepared for the tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June 2004, the Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Ben Bernanke became Chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued to tighten the tightening cycle. This round saw 17 rate hike, raising the price by 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to emerge, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. December 2015-December 2018: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to lower its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, with the stock market crash and the risk of economic recession increasing, the FOMC cut interest rates urgently, starting a nine-year path of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% ever since. As the economy gradually emerges from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continues to recover, with the unemployment rate falling from a high of 10% in 2009 to around 5%. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the jobs gap was 100,000 jobs per month, while at that time the economy was actually creating more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Fed judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. Meanwhile, inflation remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Federal Reserve began its first rate hike. By December 2018, there had been nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to the 2.5% level.</p><p><b>rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages.</b>At the beginning of the rate hike in 2015, the Federal Reserve was relatively cautious and only conducted its second rate hike in December 2016, a year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than previously expected by the market. However, from 2017 to 2018, the Federal Reserve's rate hike accelerated significantly. Yellen tightened its stance three times in 2017, and Powell further increased it after taking office. There were four rate hike throughout 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when US stocks plummeted, when it still chose to tighten further. Its hawkishness far exceeded market expectations. Subsequently, as the US economy weakened and financial markets fluctuated, this rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession prompted the Federal Reserve to further strengthen its market communication of monetary policy.</b>Starting in 2008, Bernanke began holding press conferences and giving television interviews after each FOMC meeting. During this rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has increased significantly, forward-looking guidance has received attention, and market expectations have been guided to some extent. Even so, the tapering still triggered global market turmoil in the early stages due to the unprecedented extent of the previous easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. Which year is 2022 more like? Combining multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>The current rate hike cycle is highly complex, and the current macroeconomic background seems to share some of the core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices are very similar to those of the 1980s (but have not yet entered stagflation). Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, much like the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the aforementioned issues.</p><p>Risk warning: Economic growth may fall short of expectations, and policy withdrawals may exceed expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wthgzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">文涛宏观债券研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 14:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike and balance sheet reduction are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of each rate hike.</b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation. After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective, implemented a strong tightening policy, strictly controlled monetary increases in the early 1980s, and subsequently turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation rose, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond through rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market. During this period, the Federal Reserve began to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>In response to the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin a rate hike, which led to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply as the stock market crash triggered a recession. Subsequent economic recovery and rising home prices raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to resume its rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy. rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages. The hawkishness far exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>Supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices share commonalities with those of the 1980s; Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, similar to the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the above issues.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have become the core trading logic in overseas markets this year, and are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s, providing a reference for judging this year's trend. The first part of the series will begin with a brief review of the basic situation of each rate hike, including the background, the economic and financial situation they faced, and policy considerations.</p><p><b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles: 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06, and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. monetary policy was in a period of intense change, with Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations theories all dominating. In order to address the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. Entering the 1990s, concerns about high inflation were completely dispelled, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Greenspan's leadership was mainly based on the Taylor rule to regulate the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, global financial markets were constantly turbulent. The Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates during each crisis, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly a withdrawal of previous crisis easing policies. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the level of global monetary easing was unprecedented in history. Currently, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and record-high inflation, and the market has strong expectations for continuous and rapid rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, which almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain disruptions, economic downturn, and high stock and housing prices, the aforementioned rate hike history provides valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shocks</b></p><p><b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation.</b>In the 1960s and 1970s, the dollar system was constantly in turmoil. With the oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, industrial raw material prices rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance between the United States and the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States continues to experience double-digit inflation and sluggish employment, plunging it into a long-term stagflation. In 1964, the inflation rate in the United States was 1%, and the unemployment rate was 5%. Then it rose all the way up. By 1980, the inflation rate was close to 14.5%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 7.5%. In the 1970s, guided by Keynes's idea of \"opportunistic choice,\" the Federal Reserve constantly weighed the two aspects of controlling inflation and protecting employment, resulting in an unclear monetary policy objective, a \"stop-go\" in efforts to control inflation, a continuous decline in public confidence in the economy and government policies, and high inflation expectations that distorted economic behavior. Until inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective and implemented a tough tightening policy.</b>Against the backdrop of the \"stagflation era,\" which lasted for more than a decade, Paul Volcker took office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's policy of making discretionary decisions and stopping and starting, and to make controlling inflation the most important goal, especially to solve the balance of payments problem it brought about.<b>Volcker's policy approach can be divided into two phases: strict control of monetary increases in the early 1980s, followed by a shift to rate hike.</b></p><p>From 1979 to 1981, Volcker followed monetarist ideas, using reducing the money supply as an intermediary goal to strictly control credit, which led to significant fluctuations in the Federal Funds rate, reaching a high of 20% in 1980. That year, it triggered the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. The manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly severely affected. Unemployment in the residential construction industry and the automobile manufacturing industry was 22% and 24% respectively at the end of the year.</p><p>As the unemployment rate rose, the Federal Reserve's policy eased slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply aggressively, and the Federal Funds rate surged to 20% again. As the market expected the Fed to be unable to withstand the pressure of rising unemployment, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this point, Volcker maintained absolute policy resolve, firmly believing that the Federal Reserve would not back down and would maintain its established course of restricting money and credit growth. In 1982, the Federal Reserve shifted its focus back to Federal Funds rate and began publishing its interest rate targets for the first time to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to decline, and by the end of the recession, the inflation rate had fallen below 5%. Over time, the Federal Reserve's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, the unemployment rate fell, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. Between 1983 and 1984, it conducted 13 consecutive rate hike, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the U.S. inflation rate has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Coping with rising inflation and dollar depreciation</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy entered a two-decade period of low inflation and high growth called \"the Great Moderation.\" During this period, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management, and policy effectiveness. The Federal Reserve has begun to more systematically make inflation and the output gap the main considerations in monetary policy, known as the \"Taylor rule\". When output is higher than potential or inflation is higher than target, the Federal Reserve immediately adopts a tight monetary policy, and vice versa. The \"Taylor Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate growth should exceed inflation growth, so the Federal Reserve's response is more decisive and assertive when inflation rises.</p><p><b>With the dollar depreciating and inflation rising, the Federal Reserve is responding through rate hike.</b>From late 1986 to mid-1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, soaring from below 2% to over 4%, while the overall unemployment rate has been steadily declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% from January to September. In August 1987, Greenspan became Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the US stock market experienced a \"Black Monday,\" with the stock market plummeting by 20% in a single day. In an effort to rescue the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut in Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. However, the crisis was short-lived; by the end of the year, the stock market had rebounded rapidly, and the economy had recovered. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary and dollar depreciation pressures. By the end of the rate hike cycle in 1989, the rate hike had risen 21 times by 344 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. February 1994-February 1995: Preventing economic overheating</b></p><p><b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>From 1990 to 1991, the U.S. economy entered another recession. The target federal funds rate was lowered from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Subsequently, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decline, and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve resumed its rate hike cycle in early 1994. The recovery was relatively rapid during the recession around 1991, with quarterly GDP growth rebounding from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showing an upward trend, the stock market soaring, and the S&P 500 rising 47% between 1991 and 1994, indicating that financial markets were showing signs of overheating.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market.</b>Despite broad market expectations for rate hike, the rate hike cycle of 1994 still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of the rate hike, as inflation remained at a market low of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, the interest rate was urgently raised from 3.50% to 3.75%. Subsequently, out of concern about an overheated economy and rising inflation, the Federal Reserve changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach, with 50-75 basis points per rate hike, until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, and a total of 300 basis points per rate hike seven times. The Federal Reserve tightened more than the market expected, and at a faster pace. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was jokingly referred to by the media as a \"bond market massacre\". In the following nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose by 220 basis points, and mortgage rates also rose accordingly. Bankruptcy rates are rising sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was the largest municipal bankruptcy case in U.S. history at the time. Mexico and Argentina are also heading towards financial crises. The Federal Reserve is ending its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve has begun to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved its policy communication. Previously, Greenspan had never released any FOMC meeting statements or materials in order to retain policy flexibility and not be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, as the influence of the rational expectations school in policymaking expanded, the FOMC officially announced its policy changes for the first time in February 1994. Subsequently, the Fed began to clarify its interest rate target in its statements, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the damage caused by the Fed's unexpected move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: From easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>As the Asian financial crisis spread, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the severe market impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite significant volatility in the financial markets, the aforementioned events had little impact on the real economy, and the economy continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy began to take off, wages rose, imports surged, personal consumption increased significantly, the CPI exceeded the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to around 4%. The economies of East Asia and Europe are also showing signs of recovery, and even the South American economy is improving. The internet economy boomed, technology stocks surged, and the Nasdaq index rose from 740 points in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve withdrew its easing measures, and the dot-com bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin rate hike, effectively reversing the rate cuts it had made a year earlier at the height of the financial crisis. Despite the positive economic performance, investors' expectations for rate hike remain insufficient due to insufficient market communication. In this tightening cycle. The Federal Reserve rate hike six times, a total of 175 basis points to 6.5%, followed by the bursting of the tech stock bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cooling down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Federal Reserve to ease significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell by 85%, and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, interest rates were cut six times and four times respectively, bringing the total to 11 in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had fallen from 6.5% to 1%, a level that remained unchanged until June 2004.</p><p><b>Economic recovery and rising home prices have raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, home prices fluctuated upwards, rising 52% from their 2001 low in mid-2004. The S&P 500 also continued to rebound, rising 37% from its 2002 low. This has raised market concerns about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline, while the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating above the 2% target range, which strengthened the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market prepared for the tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June 2004, the Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Ben Bernanke became Chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued to tighten the tightening cycle. This round saw 17 rate hike, raising the price by 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to emerge, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. December 2015-December 2018: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to lower its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, with the stock market crash and the risk of economic recession increasing, the FOMC cut interest rates urgently, starting a nine-year path of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% ever since. As the economy gradually emerges from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continues to recover, with the unemployment rate falling from a high of 10% in 2009 to around 5%. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the jobs gap was 100,000 jobs per month, while at that time the economy was actually creating more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Fed judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. Meanwhile, inflation remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Federal Reserve began its first rate hike. By December 2018, there had been nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to the 2.5% level.</p><p><b>rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages.</b>At the beginning of the rate hike in 2015, the Federal Reserve was relatively cautious and only conducted its second rate hike in December 2016, a year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than previously expected by the market. However, from 2017 to 2018, the Federal Reserve's rate hike accelerated significantly. Yellen tightened its stance three times in 2017, and Powell further increased it after taking office. There were four rate hike throughout 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when US stocks plummeted, when it still chose to tighten further. Its hawkishness far exceeded market expectations. Subsequently, as the US economy weakened and financial markets fluctuated, this rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession prompted the Federal Reserve to further strengthen its market communication of monetary policy.</b>Starting in 2008, Bernanke began holding press conferences and giving television interviews after each FOMC meeting. During this rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has increased significantly, forward-looking guidance has received attention, and market expectations have been guided to some extent. Even so, the tapering still triggered global market turmoil in the early stages due to the unprecedented extent of the previous easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. Which year is 2022 more like? Combining multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>The current rate hike cycle is highly complex, and the current macroeconomic background seems to share some of the core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices are very similar to those of the 1980s (but have not yet entered stagflation). Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, much like the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the aforementioned issues.</p><p>Risk warning: Economic growth may fall short of expectations, and policy withdrawals may exceed expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w\">文涛宏观债券研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK1148":"建筑与工程","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","09979":"绿城管理控股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213609052","content_text":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基本情况。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。1．1983.3-1984.9：石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。2.1987.1-1989.7：通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。这一时期美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。3.1994.2-1995.2：衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。随后联储加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。这一时期，美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。4.1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机波及下，联储降息应对。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，随之而来的是科网泡沫破裂。5.2004.6-2006.6：2001年，随着股市暴跌引发衰退，美联储大幅降息。此后经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储再次开启加息进程。6.2015.12-2018.12：长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。鹰派程度大超市场预期。本轮加息更像哪一年？供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代有共同之处；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温相似；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需看上述问题边际变化。正文美联储加息和缩表成为今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是影响国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。为此，我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响，为今年走势的判断提供借鉴。系列第一篇，首先简单回顾历次加息的基本情况，包括背景、所面临的经济金融形势及政策考虑。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。上世纪80年代以来，美联储共有6次显著的加息周期，分别是1983-84、1987-89、1993-95、1999-00、2004-06及2015-17。上世纪70-80年代，美国货币政策处于激烈变动期，凯恩斯主义、货币主义、理性预期理论各领风骚，为应对长期的滞涨问题，美联储主席沃尔克执行了坚定的货币紧缩。进入90年代，高通胀的担忧彻底解除，格林斯潘执掌下的美联储货币政策主要基于泰勒规则，对经济周期和通胀进行调节。90年代末至21世纪，全球金融市场不断动荡，历次危机中美联储都积极降息，而其后的加息周期主要是对此前危机宽松政策的撤回。2015年，耶伦领导下的美联储在全球金融危机和大衰退后消退后实施了货币政策正常化。2020-21年，全球货币宽松程度史上前所未见，当前美国面临经济的强劲复苏和通胀连创新高，市场对美联储连续和快速加息的预期强烈。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。由于当下加息周期的复杂性，几乎同时包含了高通胀、供应链断裂、经济下行、股价房价高位等多重因素，上述加息历史具有宝贵参考信息。1. 1983.3-1984.9：原油供给冲击带来的滞胀困局石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。20世纪60-70年代，美元体系不断动荡。伴随着1973-1975年和1979-1982年两次石油危机和两伊战争，全球石油产量缩减，工业原材料价格上涨，商业投资放缓，生产率下降，美国与世界其他国家的贸易平衡恶化。美国通胀持续达两位数而就业不振，陷入长期滞涨的困境。1964年，美国通胀率1%，失业率5%，此后一路上行，到1980年，通货膨胀率接近14.5%，失业率超过7.5% 。70年代，美联储在凯恩斯“相机抉择”的思想指导下，不断在控制通胀和保就业两方面权衡，造成货币政策目标不清晰，控制通胀的努力“走走停停”（stop-go），公众对经济和政府政策的信心不断下降，通胀预期高企导致经济行为发生扭曲。直到通胀和失业率最终都达到令人无法接受的高位。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策。在长达十数年的“滞涨时代”背景下，1979年8月保罗·沃尔克就任美联储主席，决心结束美联储相机抉择、走走停停的政策，将控制通货膨胀作为最重要目标，特别是其解决带来的国际收支平衡问题。沃尔克的政策思路可以分为两阶段，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。1979-1981年，沃尔克遵循货币主义的思想，以降低货币供给量为中介目标，对信贷进行严格控制，导致联邦基金利率大幅波动，在1980年达到20%的高点，并在当年引发自大萧条以来美国最严重的经济衰退，失业率达到近11%的峰值，一直持续到1982年11月。制造业、建筑业和汽车业受到的影响尤为严重。住宅建筑业和汽车制造业年底分别失业22%和24%随着失业率的上升，美联储的政策略微有所放松。但随着1980年下半年经济出现企稳迹象，美联储继续强力收紧货币供给，联邦基金利率再次冲上20%，由于市场预期美联储无法承受失业率上升压力，长期利率仍持续上升，反映了通胀预期的恶化。此时，沃尔克保持了绝对的政策定力，坚定美联储不会让步，保持限制货币和信贷增长的既定路线不变。1982年，美联储重新将目标转向联邦基金利率，并首次开始公布其利率目标，以引导市场预期。但通胀继续走低，到经济衰退结束时，通胀率回落到5%以下。随着时间的推移，美联储对低通胀的承诺赢得了公信力，失业率回落，经济进入了一个持续增长和稳定的时期。随着经济走出衰退，1983年3月-1984年9月，美联储继续实施加息以稳固通胀预期，在1983-1984年间持续加息13次，共加息275基点，此后美国通胀率基本维持在5%以下，标志着大通胀时代结束。2. 1987.1-1989.7：应对通胀上行和美元贬值通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。20世纪80年代中期以后，美国经济进入长达20年的低通胀、高增长的“大缓和”时期（the Great Moderation）。该时期美联储货币政策在政策规则、预期管理和政策效果方面都有所改善。美联储开始更系统地将通胀和产出缺口作为货币政策的主要考虑因素，即“泰勒规则”。当产出高于潜在水平或通胀高于目标，美联储随即采取紧缩货币政策，反之则宽松。“泰勒规则”意味着联邦基金利率增长幅度应超过通胀率增长幅度，因此通胀率上升时，美联储的应对措施更加果断和强硬。美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。1986年底-1987年中，由于里根政府持续的美元贬值以促进贸易的政策，导致美国国内通胀再次快速走高，从低于2%飚升至4%以上，而失业率总体趋势已连续5年稳中有降。1987年初，美联储开始提高利率以对抗通胀，1-9月利率从5.8%升至7.3%。1987年8月，格林斯潘就任美联储主席，10月，美股爆发“黑色星期一”，股市一天内暴跌20%。为了救市，格林斯潘宣布联邦基金利率紧急下调50基点至6.75%，1988年利率继续下降到6.5%。但这场危机是短暂的，到年底股市迅速反弹，经济也随即复苏。美联储继续提高利率以缓解通胀和美元贬值压力，到1989年本轮加息周期结束，共计加息21次344个基点，联邦基金利率升至9.3%。3. 1994.2-1995.2：防经济过热衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。1990-1991，美国经济再度进入衰退。联邦基金目标利率从9%降至1992年3%，并持续维持低位。此后，随着经济改善，失业率持续降低，通胀也保持低位，美联储于1994年初再度开启加息周期。在91年前后的衰退中复苏比较快，GDP季度增长率从负值反弹至4%-5%，10年期国债收益率出现抬头趋势，股市飙升，标普500在1991年至1994年间上涨47%，金融市场出现过热倾向。加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。尽管市场对加息已有广泛预期，但由于通胀率始终维持在3%左右的市场低位，6.5%的失业率也尚未回到衰退前水平，因此1994年的加息周期在加息的时间和幅度方面仍出乎投资者意料。1994年4月，利率从3.50%紧急提高到3.75%。此后，出于对经济过热和通胀上升的担忧，美联储改变了其每次加息25基点的渐进方法，采取了更为激进的方法，每次加息50-75基点，直至1995年2月，联邦基金利率上升到6.00%，共计加息7次300个基点。美联储较市场预期的紧缩幅度更大，速度也更快。利率的超预期上升引发债券市场动荡，被媒体戏称为“债券市场大屠杀”。在随后的9个月里，10年期美国国债利率上升了220基点，抵押贷款利率也随之上升。世界范围内的破产率急剧上升，加州奥兰治县（Orange County）当时是美国历史上最大的市政破产案。墨西哥和阿根廷也走向金融危机。美联储结束加息周期。美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。这一时期，美联储在政策沟通方面有所提升。此前，格林斯潘从未公布任何FOMC会议声明和材料，以保留政策灵活性，不必受此前声明的束缚。90年代，随着理性预期学派在政策制定领域影响扩大，FOMC于1994年2月首次正式官方宣布其政策变动。此后，联储在声明中开始明确利率目标，从而管理通胀预期，并将美联储意外之举造成的破坏降至最低。4. 1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机后的宽松到收紧亚洲金融危机波及，联储降息应对。为应对东南亚金融危机危机、俄罗斯债务违约和长期资本管理公司（LTCM）破产对市场的猛烈冲击，美联储在1998年夏季和初秋将利率从5.5%下调至4.75%。尽管金融市场出现了巨大的波动，但上述事件对实体经济影响不大，经济继续强劲增长。美国经济开始腾飞，工资上涨，进口激增，个人消费大幅增长，CPI超过2%的政策目标，失业率持续降至4%附近。东亚和欧洲经济也显示出复苏的迹象，甚至南美经济也有所改善。互联网经济蓬勃发展，科技股大幅上涨，纳斯达克指数从1997年的740点一路走高，至2000年3月站上5030的高点。联储收回宽松，科网泡沫破裂。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，实际上是收回一年前金融危机最严重时的降息幅度。尽管经济走势良好，但由于市场沟通不足，投资者对加息的预期仍不充分。在这一紧缩周期。美联储加息6次，共175个基点到6.5%，紧随而来的是2001年的科技股泡沫破裂。5. 2004.6-2006.6：房地产降温股市暴跌和恐怖袭击事件促使联储大幅宽松。2000年至2002年间，科技泡沫破灭，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌了85%，商业投资急剧收缩。为了防止更严重的衰退，2001年1月3日，美联储主席格林斯潘出人意料地宣布降息0.50%至6%。9·11恐怖袭击前后又分别进行了6次和4次降息，2001年共降息11次，到2003年6月，利率已从6.5%降至1%，并一直保持到2004年6月。经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储开启加息进程。随着利率长期保持低位，房价震荡上升，2004年中较2001年低点上涨52%，标普500指数亦持续反弹，较2002年低点回升37%。引发市场对资产泡沫、房地产泡沫的担忧。这段时期失业率维持在6%以下并持续下降，同时CPI逐渐抬头，震荡走高至2%的目标区间以上，加大了联储加息的决心。市场为2004年至2006年的紧缩周期做好了准备。2004年6月，联储加息25个基点至1.25%，2006年伯南克就任美联储主席，继续紧缩周期，本轮共加息17次，425个基点至5.25%。2007年上半年，美联储意识到次贷危机初现端倪，本轮加息周期结束。6. 2015.12-2018.12：“大衰退”后的货币政策正常化长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。2007年8月，次贷危机促使美联储开始下调联邦基金利率，2008年1月随着股市崩盘，经济衰退风险增加，FOMC紧急降息，开启了9年的全球货币宽松之路。2008年底，美国出台了激进的零利率政策，此后基准利率一直维持在0%-0.25%的水平。随着经济逐渐从危机中走出，美国劳动力市场持续复苏，失业率从09年高点的10%降至5%左右。2015年中，美联储判断就业缺口为每月10万个就业岗位，而当时经济实际每月新增就业岗位超20万，因此美联储判断经济已经实现实质性的复苏。与此同时，通胀水平维持在2%上下区间震荡。同年底，联储开始首次加息，至2018年12月，共加息9次225个基点，联邦基金利率升至2.5%一线。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。2015年正式开启加息初期，联储态度较为谨慎，在2016年12月才进行第二次加息，与首次加息前后时隔一年，大幅低于此前的市场预期。然而，2017-2018年，美联储的加息速度明显加快，耶伦在2017年加息3次，随后鲍威尔上任后进一步加码，2018年全年四次加息，尤其是在美股大跌的2018年底仍然选择了进一步紧缩，鹰派程度大超市场预期。此后，随着美国经济走弱、金融市场波动，本轮加息周期至2019年3季度结束。次贷危机和大衰退促成了美联储在货币政策的市场沟通方面进一步加强。2008年起，伯南克开始在每次FOMC会议后主持召开新闻发布会，并接受电视采访。在本轮加息周期中，货币政策透明度大幅提升，前瞻性指引受到重视，市场预期在一定程度上得到引导。即便如此，由于此前的宽松幅度前所未有，缩减在开始的初期仍引发了全球市场动荡。7、2022年更像哪一年？兼具多种特点供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。本轮加息周期的复杂性较高，目前的宏观背景似乎兼具此前6轮周期中的一些核心特点。例如，供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代极为相似（但目前尚未进入滞胀）；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温如出一辙；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需要看上述问题的边际变化。风险提示：经济增长不达预期，政策退出超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.9,"09979":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094720153,"gmtCreate":1645238748768,"gmtModify":1676534012252,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094720153","repostId":"1154007444","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154007444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645225649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154007444?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-19 07:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154007444","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices all closed lower, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally declined; Prevent a repeat of the \"stock speculation crisis\"! The Federal Reserve has introduced comprehensive trading restrictions; The New York Federal Reserve questions the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points; The development of important chips is lagging behind.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Stock price plunges over 5% >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: The Russia-Ukraine situation alarmed the market, and US stocks declined for the second consecutive week.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the outlook for rate hike continued to dominate market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing lower, the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, and the US stock market recording a second consecutive week of declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 34,079.18 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 4.37%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 3.61%, and Weibo fell 5.16%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Bilibili fell 6.05%, and Bilibili fell 6.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 5.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.32%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It fell 5.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell 6.58%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell 5.40%, while Zhihu fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% this week.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to settle at $91.07 a barrel. WTI contracts for near-month trading fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, after rising 3.1% this week, marking their biggest weekly gain in nine months.</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold prices rose to their highest closing price in eight months on Thursday, driven by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,899.80 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 3.1% this week, their biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%.</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve dovish officials called for substantial policy adjustments, while the New York Fed questioned the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.</b></a></p><p>One of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials called for a \"substantial adjustment\" to monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, becoming the second Fed official to oppose a 50-basis-point rate hike next month. Both Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams have clearly signaled that they will rate hike by 25 basis points at their March 15-16 meetings, but core officials remain open to how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the March meeting.</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed is prepared to rate hike next month and decide to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its next few meetings. “Given that we’ve seen very strong data, I do expect it to be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,” Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The Federal Reserve announced comprehensive trading restrictions to prevent another ethics scandal.</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has formally imposed strict and comprehensive restrictions on the investment and trading behavior of central bank officials to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that embarrassed the Fed last year. These changes establish, in regulatory form, guidelines announced last October to restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks, and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Biden officially signed a temporary funding bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of March 17, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue operating until March 11, temporarily avoiding the predicament of a federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The report states that SpaceX's stock split is 1:10, marking the company's first stock split.</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>SpaceX, CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company, is splitting its common stock at a 1:10 ratio, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The decline in stocks such as Roku and Tesla dealt another blow to Sister Wood's portfolio.</b></a></p><p>Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with many undervalued companies, but another volatile trading day caused some of her big-name stocks to fall even deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with the expiration of $2.2 trillion in options amplifying the decline. Wood's favorite stocks, such as Roku and Tesla, were not spared either, with Roku plummeting 22% and Tesla falling 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna announces the launch of herpes virus and cancer mRNA vaccine research and development</b></a></p><p>Biopharmaceutical company Moderna announced that it has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects that will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate aims to prevent herpes simplex virus type II (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella-zoster virus; mRNA-4359 is used to test the application prospects of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and its autonomous driving technology subsidiary Cruise said on Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. This car, called Cruise Origin, features no manually controlled components such as a steering wheel or brake pedal. General Motors and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to obtain approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel's stock price plummeted by more than 5% due to delays in the development of key chips.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday after CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed on Thursday that the release of its server chip, codenamed Granite Rapids, would be delayed from 2023 to 2024, and that it would have to invest heavily in the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor to use ultraviolet lithography technology, marking Intel's pursuit of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And key technologies required by other top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermès' Q4 financial report fell short of expectations; production capacity limitations impacted performance.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, French luxury goods giant Hermès released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Data shows that the company's total revenue reached €2.38 billion in the fourth quarter, an 11% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 12% against the backdrop of a supply shortage of luxury goods. The main reason for this is that the revenue of the leather goods and equestrian harness division declined by more than 5%. Even though most other businesses delivered growth rates of more than 20%, it could not offset the impact of the decline in revenue of the largest business segment. Hermès CEO Axel Dumas revealed that limited production capacity has limited the company's performance growth. Making a Hermès bag takes 15 hours. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, the growth of production capacity is very limited considering the need for a lot of time for training.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-19 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices all closed lower, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally declined; Prevent a repeat of the \"stock speculation crisis\"! The Federal Reserve has introduced comprehensive trading restrictions; The New York Federal Reserve questions the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points; The development of important chips is lagging behind.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Stock price plunges over 5% >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: The Russia-Ukraine situation alarmed the market, and US stocks declined for the second consecutive week.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the outlook for rate hike continued to dominate market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing lower, the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, and the US stock market recording a second consecutive week of declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 34,079.18 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 4.37%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 3.61%, and Weibo fell 5.16%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Bilibili fell 6.05%, and Bilibili fell 6.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 5.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.32%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It fell 5.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell 6.58%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell 5.40%, while Zhihu fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% this week.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to settle at $91.07 a barrel. WTI contracts for near-month trading fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, after rising 3.1% this week, marking their biggest weekly gain in nine months.</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold prices rose to their highest closing price in eight months on Thursday, driven by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,899.80 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 3.1% this week, their biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%.</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve dovish officials called for substantial policy adjustments, while the New York Fed questioned the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.</b></a></p><p>One of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials called for a \"substantial adjustment\" to monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, becoming the second Fed official to oppose a 50-basis-point rate hike next month. Both Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams have clearly signaled that they will rate hike by 25 basis points at their March 15-16 meetings, but core officials remain open to how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the March meeting.</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed is prepared to rate hike next month and decide to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its next few meetings. “Given that we’ve seen very strong data, I do expect it to be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,” Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The Federal Reserve announced comprehensive trading restrictions to prevent another ethics scandal.</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has formally imposed strict and comprehensive restrictions on the investment and trading behavior of central bank officials to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that embarrassed the Fed last year. These changes establish, in regulatory form, guidelines announced last October to restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks, and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Biden officially signed a temporary funding bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of March 17, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue operating until March 11, temporarily avoiding the predicament of a federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The report states that SpaceX's stock split is 1:10, marking the company's first stock split.</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>SpaceX, CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company, is splitting its common stock at a 1:10 ratio, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The decline in stocks such as Roku and Tesla dealt another blow to Sister Wood's portfolio.</b></a></p><p>Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with many undervalued companies, but another volatile trading day caused some of her big-name stocks to fall even deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with the expiration of $2.2 trillion in options amplifying the decline. Wood's favorite stocks, such as Roku and Tesla, were not spared either, with Roku plummeting 22% and Tesla falling 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna announces the launch of herpes virus and cancer mRNA vaccine research and development</b></a></p><p>Biopharmaceutical company Moderna announced that it has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects that will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate aims to prevent herpes simplex virus type II (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella-zoster virus; mRNA-4359 is used to test the application prospects of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and its autonomous driving technology subsidiary Cruise said on Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. This car, called Cruise Origin, features no manually controlled components such as a steering wheel or brake pedal. General Motors and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to obtain approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel's stock price plummeted by more than 5% due to delays in the development of key chips.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday after CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed on Thursday that the release of its server chip, codenamed Granite Rapids, would be delayed from 2023 to 2024, and that it would have to invest heavily in the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor to use ultraviolet lithography technology, marking Intel's pursuit of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And key technologies required by other top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermès' Q4 financial report fell short of expectations; production capacity limitations impacted performance.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, French luxury goods giant Hermès released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Data shows that the company's total revenue reached €2.38 billion in the fourth quarter, an 11% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 12% against the backdrop of a supply shortage of luxury goods. The main reason for this is that the revenue of the leather goods and equestrian harness division declined by more than 5%. Even though most other businesses delivered growth rates of more than 20%, it could not offset the impact of the decline in revenue of the largest business segment. Hermès CEO Axel Dumas revealed that limited production capacity has limited the company's performance growth. Making a Hermès bag takes 15 hours. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, the growth of production capacity is very limited considering the need for a lot of time for training.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154007444","content_text":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美股连续第二周下滑俄乌局势和加息前景仍在主导市场情绪，三大指数悉数收跌，纳指跌超1%，美股市场连续第二周录得下跌。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.68%，报34,079.18点；标普500指数跌0.72%，报4,348.87点；纳斯达克指数跌1.23%，报13,548.07点。热门中概股收盘普跌，知乎跌超12%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%热门中概股集体下挫，阿里巴巴跌4.37%，京东跌3.61%，微博跌5.16%，拼多多跌6.05%，哔哩哔哩跌6.19%，百度跌5.22%，新东方跌3.18%，网易跌1.32%，腾讯音乐跌5.68%，爱奇艺跌6.58%，滴滴跌5.40%，知乎跌超12%，满帮跌11.34%。WTI原油期货收跌0.8%，本周下跌2.2%原油期货价格周五收跌，使其周跌幅扩大至2%以上。纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌69美分，跌幅近0.8%，收于每桶91.07美元。本周近月WTI合约下跌2.2%。黄金期货收跌0.1%，本周上涨3.1%创9个月来最大周涨幅黄金期货周五收低。在乌克兰危机推动下，金价周四升至八个月以来的最高收盘价，帮助其本周创下九个月以来的最大单周涨幅。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.20美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1899.80美元。本周黄金期货价格上涨3.1%，是2021年5月以来的最大单周涨幅。欧股收盘普跌，德国DAX指数跌1.46%德国DAX指数跌1.46%，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，法国CAC40指数跌0.25%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.94%。国际宏观美联储鸽派官员呼吁实质性调整政策，纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性美联储最鸽派的官员之一呼吁“实质性调整”货币政策，但淡化了激进紧缩的必要性，这是第二位反对下月加息50基点的美联储官员。芝加哥联储行长Charles Evans和纽约联储行长John Williams都明确给出了将在3月15-16日会议上加息25个基点的信号，但核心官员对最终需要降息多少仍持开放态度。美联储理事布雷纳德：在3月份会议上启动一系列加息是合适的美联储理事布雷纳德表示，美联储已经准备好在下个月加息，并在未来的几次会议上决定开始缩减资产负债表。“鉴于我们已经看到了非常强劲的数据，我的确预计，在下一次会议上启动一系列加息是合适的，” 布雷纳德周五在芝加哥大学布斯商学院于纽约主办的一次会议的小组讨论中表示。美联储宣布全面的交易限制，以防再度发生道德丑闻美联储正式对央行官员的投资和交易行为采取严厉而全面的限制，以防再次发生去年那种让美联储蒙羞的道德丑闻。这些变动以法规形式确定了去年10月宣布的限制主动交易的指导方针，禁止买卖个股，并提高决策者和高级工作人员的披露要求。拜登签署临时拨款法案，避免美国联邦政府停摆美国总统拜登正式签署了美国国会参议院17日晚间通过的临时拨款法案，确保联邦政府有足够资金继续运转到3月11日，暂时避免了联邦政府停摆的窘境。公司新闻报道称SpaceX按1:10拆股，为该公司首次股票拆分据报道，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下太空探索公司SpaceX正在以1：10的比例拆分其普通股，该公司的估值已飙升至超过1000亿美元。Roku和特斯拉等股票下跌让木头姐的投资组合再受打击木头姐Cathie Wood刚刚形容自己的投机性科技板块策略是一个“深度价值”投资组合，里面很多被低估的公司，但又一个动荡的交易日让她持有的一些大牌股票跌得更深了。美国股市周五下跌，2.2万亿美元期权到期放大了股市跌幅。Wood钟爱的Roku、特斯拉等股票也未能幸免，其中Roku暴跌22%，特斯拉下跌2%。莫德纳宣布启动疱疹病毒、癌症mRNA疫苗研发生物医药企业莫德纳（Moderna）发布公告称，公司新增了三个mRNA疫苗开发项目，将使用与Spikevax新冠疫苗相同的技术。根据公告披露，三个新项目中，mRNA-1608候选疫苗旨在预防二型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV-2）；mRNA-1468疫苗用于降低水痘带状疱疹病毒的发病率；mRNA-4359用来测试这项技术治疗癌症的应用前景。通用汽车向NHTSA申请批准部署自动驾驶汽车通用汽车和其自动驾驶技术子公司Cruise周五表示，已向美国监管机构申请建造和部署一款自动驾驶汽车。这款汽车名为Cruise Origin，特点是不具备方向盘或刹车踏板等人工控制的部件。通用汽车和Cruise于2020年10月首次披露Cruise Origin，并计划在几个月内获得美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)的批准。重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%英特尔股价周五收跌5.32%，原因是该公司首席执行官Pat Gelsinger周四证实，代号为Granite Rapids的服务器芯片将从2023年推迟至2024年，未来两年将不得不投入大量资金才能追上竞争对手。Granite Rapids是英特尔首款使用超紫外光刻技术的服务器处理器，这是英特尔追赶台积电和其他顶级芯片制造商所需的关键技术。爱马仕Q4财报不如预期，产能设限影响业绩当地时间周五，法国奢侈品巨头爱马仕发布四季度及全年财报。数据显示，公司四季度总营收达到23.8亿欧元，以不变汇率计算同比增长11%，在奢侈品供不应求的大背景下逊于分析师预期的12%。究其原因，主要是皮具及马具部门营收下降逾5%，即便其他业务大都交出超过20%的增速，也抵不过第一大业务板块营收下降带来的影响。爱马仕CEO阿克塞尔·杜马斯透露，产能有限限制了公司业绩增长，做一个爱马仕的皮包需要15个小时的工序，尽管集团每年会招募400名工匠，但考虑到需要大量时间培训，产能的增长十分有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094889900,"gmtCreate":1645109172189,"gmtModify":1676533998095,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094889900","repostId":"1125455457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125455457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645078408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125455457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 14:13","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125455457","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Hong Kong's Wind News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials present expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They stated that a rate hike could occur soon, and indicated that the liquidation of bond portfolios could be significant.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Participants believed that, given the Federal Reserve's current high holdings of securities, a significant reduction in its balance sheet might be appropriate.\" The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at raising interest rates as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the meeting minutes, the stock market recovered its lost ground after the minutes were released. \"The market interpreted these comments as more subdued than expected,\" said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.</p><p>The market has been tense for the past few weeks due to soaring inflation and tough comments from some Federal Reserve officials (especially St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard), leading traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year, each by 0.25 percentage points. Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations have declined, and the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points is 50%.</p><p>“There’s been too much hype lately, and I think everyone is prepared for the minutes to take a very tough tone,” Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the committee has also developed procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. This balance sheet consists primarily of bonds purchased by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March also marked the end of the asset purchase program, although some participants hoped it would end sooner. The meeting minutes stated, \"Several participants expressed their preference for ending the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to reducing inflation.\"</p><p>The committee members discussed how to cut the balance sheet. The most likely approach is to stop investing in maturing bonds. However, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages directly so that only U.S. Treasury Bond are held on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, since this meeting, the latest inflation data shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials acknowledge that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting show that inflation occupied a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said that price increases were stronger and longer-lasting than they had expected.</p><p>The document states: \"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the committee's long-term targets, and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic reopening.\"</p><p>Members of the Federal Open Market Committee pointed out that inflation has begun to spread beyond industries affected by the pandemic and into broader economic sectors. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to afford higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed financial stability issues. Officials pointed out that the risks come from rising asset prices and the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-17 14:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Hong Kong's Wind News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials present expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They stated that a rate hike could occur soon, and indicated that the liquidation of bond portfolios could be significant.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Participants believed that, given the Federal Reserve's current high holdings of securities, a significant reduction in its balance sheet might be appropriate.\" The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at raising interest rates as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the meeting minutes, the stock market recovered its lost ground after the minutes were released. \"The market interpreted these comments as more subdued than expected,\" said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.</p><p>The market has been tense for the past few weeks due to soaring inflation and tough comments from some Federal Reserve officials (especially St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard), leading traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year, each by 0.25 percentage points. Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations have declined, and the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points is 50%.</p><p>“There’s been too much hype lately, and I think everyone is prepared for the minutes to take a very tough tone,” Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the committee has also developed procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. This balance sheet consists primarily of bonds purchased by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March also marked the end of the asset purchase program, although some participants hoped it would end sooner. The meeting minutes stated, \"Several participants expressed their preference for ending the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to reducing inflation.\"</p><p>The committee members discussed how to cut the balance sheet. The most likely approach is to stop investing in maturing bonds. However, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages directly so that only U.S. Treasury Bond are held on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, since this meeting, the latest inflation data shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials acknowledge that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting show that inflation occupied a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said that price increases were stronger and longer-lasting than they had expected.</p><p>The document states: \"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the committee's long-term targets, and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic reopening.\"</p><p>Members of the Federal Open Market Committee pointed out that inflation has begun to spread beyond industries affected by the pandemic and into broader economic sectors. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to afford higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed financial stability issues. Officials pointed out that the risks come from rising asset prices and the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125455457","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议纪要表示:“与会者认为，鉴于美联储目前持有的证券规模较高，大幅缩减资产负债表规模可能是合适的。”美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)强烈暗示最早将在3月份上调利率。尽管会议纪要的语气看似强硬，但股市在会议纪要公布后收复了失地。道富环球投资管理公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席经济学家西蒙娜•莫卡塔(Simona Mocuta)表示:“市场将这些言论解读为相对于预期较为温和。”过去几周，市场一直处于紧张状态，因通胀飙升，加上部分美联储官员(尤其是圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德)发表的强硬言论，令交易员预计美联储今年将加息七次，每次0.25个百分点。会议纪要公布后，市场预期有所回落，目前美联储上调基准利率1.75个百分点的几率为50%。“最近有太多的炒作，我认为每个人都准备好了纪要会采取非常强硬的语气，”莫卡塔说。除了利率外，该委员会还制定了如何开始剥离其近9万亿美元资产负债表的程序。该资产负债表主要由美联储为压低利率和刺激经济增长而购买的债券组成。3月也是资产购买计划结束的月份，不过一些与会成员希望能更快结束。会议纪要称，\"几位与会者表示，他们倾向于更早结束委员会的净资产购买计划，以发出更强烈的信号，表明委员会致力于降低通胀。\"委员们讨论如何削减资产负债表。最有可能的方法是，不再投资到期债券。 不过，一些官员说，可能有必要直接出售抵押贷款，以使资产负债表中只持有美国国债。不过自此次会议以来，最新的通胀数据显示，物价正以40年来最快的速度上涨。美联储的目标是平均通胀率在2%左右，官员们也承认，政策需要收紧以降低价格。会议纪要显示，通货膨胀在会议中占据了大量的讨论内容。这个词在纪要中被提到了73次，成员们表示，价格上涨比他们预期的更强劲、更持久。文件称:“与会者指出，最近的通胀数据继续显著超过委员会的长期目标，高通胀持续的时间超过了他们的预期，这反映了与疫情和经济重启有关的供需失衡。”联邦公开市场委员会成员指出，通胀开始蔓延到受疫情影响的行业之外，并进入更广泛的经济领域。与会者承认，高通胀是美国家庭的负担，尤其是那些最无力支付更高价格购买基本商品和服务的家庭。会议还讨论了金融稳定问题。官员们指出，风险来自于资产价格的上涨以及加密资产价格的快速上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094031421,"gmtCreate":1645018868277,"gmtModify":1676533986856,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094031421","repostId":"1190123173","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190123173","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644978386,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190123173?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-16 10:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190123173","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持T","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>13F holdings reports are an important channel for understanding Wall Street investment trends. What were the asset allocation strategies of top institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bridgewater in the fourth quarter of 2021? Which stocks did they increase or decrease their holdings in?</p><p>The chart below lists the top 5 holdings, increases, and decreases of the top ten institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's take a look!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56111d53be7ea0ea636721d765198ec1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>One Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOne Chart to Understand | Q4 Holdings Changes of Top 10 Institutions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-16 10:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>13F holdings reports are an important channel for understanding Wall Street investment trends. What were the asset allocation strategies of top institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bridgewater in the fourth quarter of 2021? Which stocks did they increase or decrease their holdings in?</p><p>The chart below lists the top 5 holdings, increases, and decreases of the top ten institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let's take a look!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56111d53be7ea0ea636721d765198ec1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"2400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95414d8312d8ee2d8fac46fd621f61e7","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190123173","content_text":"13F持仓报告是了解华尔街投资风向标的重要渠道，2021年四季度，摩根大通、高盛、桥水等顶级机构的资产配置策略是怎样的？都增持或者减持了哪些标的？下图列出了2021年四季度十大机构持仓、增持以及减持Top5, 让我们来一探究竟吧！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095136982,"gmtCreate":1644849246279,"gmtModify":1676533967550,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095136982","repostId":"1161517578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161517578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金宏观研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金宏观","id":"1083231139","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc"},"pubTimestamp":1644796491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161517578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-14 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161517578","media":"中金宏观","summary":"最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have risen significantly. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March reflected in the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of times rate hike is expected in 2022 has reached 7. However, judging from the stock and bond markets, investors are still hesitant about whether this Federal Reserve tightening is just \"all talk and no action.\"</p><p><b>We believe that the market still underestimates the magnitude of this Federal Reserve tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are accustomed to viewing the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2015-2018) as a reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned after the January policy meeting, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's different this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals, or \"initial conditions,\" at the start of the rate hike.</b>We reviewed the initial conditions of the six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous ones, especially the biggest difference compared to the previous one. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>On economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not very strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2%, while the GDP growth rate before rate hike this time was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999, and 2004, with rate hike’s GDP growth rate exceeding 4% in each case. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, but the current unemployment rate has fallen to a historical low of 4%, which is closer to the rate hike cycle of 1999.</p><p>►<b>Regarding inflation,</b>During the 2015 rate hike, the US core CPI grew by only 2% year-on-year, and the overall CPI grew by only 0.5% year-on-year (due to falling oil prices). Not only was there no risk of rising inflation, but there was even a possibility of deflation. The Federal Reserve chose rate hike more out of “trust” in future inflation. Officials believed that a decline in unemployment would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), thus adopting a “precautionary” rate hike. In contrast, the current growth rate of both overall and core CPI is much higher than in 2015, and even higher than any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has truly faced the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>Regarding the rhythm of rate hike,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Federal Reserve followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After rate hike opened, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much time to wait this time. In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve repeatedly delayed its exit from easing, missing the best opportunity to exit. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to hold more than three rate hike this year, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points cannot even be ruled out. We have charted the path of this rate hike based on current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than to the previous rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of financial markets,</b>The slow pace of the last round of monetary tightening, coupled with relatively reasonable valuations of US stocks, prevented the stock market from undergoing much adjustment, and overall, the situation was \"calm\". Currently, US stocks are relatively highly valued and more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially rising interest rates. It seems that it will not be easy to smoothly navigate the entire rate hike process. In addition, in the low-interest-rate environment following the pandemic, the debt of the U.S. non-financial corporate sector expanded rapidly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it declined slightly in the second quarter, it was still at a historical high. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike begins, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In conclusion, this round of Fed tightening may be aggressive, and simply extrapolating from the previous tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the intensity of the tightening.</b>In our report, \"Inflation Soars, Fed Should Tighten as Soon as Possible,\" we pointed out that the current U.S. economy is like a high-speed car; it is difficult to slow down without braking. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve should take action as soon as possible, such as raising the rate hike by 50 basis points in March and hinting at more rate hike this year. In addition, the Federal Reserve should also initiate a \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective means to achieve this is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect the \"shrinking balance sheet\" to begin in the third quarter, but we cannot rule out the possibility of it being brought forward to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the 10-year US Treasury yield will break through 2.5%, and US stocks still have room for adjustment.</b>After the pandemic subsides, the US economic recovery is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may recover in tandem. If the Federal Reserve maintains a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and takes a firm stance, US Treasury yields may rise further. On the other hand, overly aggressive rate hike may trigger market concerns about a medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and intensified geopolitical shocks may also suppress risk appetite and limit the upside potential of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low-interest-rate environment over the past decade, the valuations of some stocks have expanded significantly, and their stock prices have risen substantially. If there is a liquidity tightening, the risk-free rate will rise, which will have an adverse impact on the valuation of these stocks. Although US stocks have recently experienced a correction, there may still be room for adjustment as the US Treasury yields upward trend has not ended.</p><p><b>Commodities are currently performing better and less affected by austerity measures.</b>First, the Fed's tightening is itself a confirmation of strong economic growth and is beneficial to commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed significantly over the past two years, and a synchronized global rebound in capital expenditure is expected after the pandemic, further increasing demand for goods (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: The Third Step of Global Recovery\"). Of course, the Federal Reserve's tightening will lead to higher interest rates and suppress corporate investment, but this process will have a time lag and may not happen in the first half of this year. In short,<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening may become the main theme in global asset pricing this year, and investors should not underestimate the magnitude of the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macroeconomic Data and Economic Events</p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The U.S. trade balance in December was -$80.7 billion, higher than the expected -$83 billion; Wholesale sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the expected 1.2%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for January was 97.1, lower than the expected 97.5; The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5 was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 61.7, lower than the expected 67.5.</p><p>The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in February was 16.6, higher than the expected 15.2. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%. GDP grew by 1% month-on-month in the three months of December, lower than the expected 1.1%; Industrial output grew by 0.3% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On February 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, stating that inflation risks were rising and hinting that the central bank’s monetary policy would “gradually change”[2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained “open-minded” about central bank digital currencies[3]. On February 10, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech, stating that every Fed interest rate meeting this year could be a rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet[4]. On February 11, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected the Fed to “steadily” rate hike and hoped that the Fed would restore interest rates to pre-pandemic levels “relatively quickly”[5].</p><p><b>This week's focus: macro data and economic events</b></p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The US January PPI month-on-month growth rate and the New York Fed manufacturing index for February will be released on Tuesday. Eurozone fourth-quarter annual GDP growth revision, fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter employment growth, December seasonally adjusted trade balance, February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The U.S. December business inventory month-on-month growth rate, January retail sales month-on-month growth rate, January import price index month-on-month growth rate, January industrial production month-on-month growth rate, and February NAHB housing market index will be released on Wednesday. Eurozone industrial output grew month-on-month in December. The annualized figures for new home starts in the United States in January, the total number of building permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 12 will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Conference Board released its leading indicators for January, showing the month-on-month growth rate and the annualized value of total existing home sales in January. Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account for December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to review and decide on lending ratios and discount rates; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Powell's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, as well as on the nominations of four other Federal Reserve officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. The Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday; The European Central Bank released its economic bulletin. On Friday, 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Evans, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, respectively. Saturday FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an economic outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083231139\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-14 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have risen significantly. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March reflected in the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of times rate hike is expected in 2022 has reached 7. However, judging from the stock and bond markets, investors are still hesitant about whether this Federal Reserve tightening is just \"all talk and no action.\"</p><p><b>We believe that the market still underestimates the magnitude of this Federal Reserve tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are accustomed to viewing the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2015-2018) as a reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned after the January policy meeting, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's different this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals, or \"initial conditions,\" at the start of the rate hike.</b>We reviewed the initial conditions of the six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous ones, especially the biggest difference compared to the previous one. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>On economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not very strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2%, while the GDP growth rate before rate hike this time was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999, and 2004, with rate hike’s GDP growth rate exceeding 4% in each case. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, but the current unemployment rate has fallen to a historical low of 4%, which is closer to the rate hike cycle of 1999.</p><p>►<b>Regarding inflation,</b>During the 2015 rate hike, the US core CPI grew by only 2% year-on-year, and the overall CPI grew by only 0.5% year-on-year (due to falling oil prices). Not only was there no risk of rising inflation, but there was even a possibility of deflation. The Federal Reserve chose rate hike more out of “trust” in future inflation. Officials believed that a decline in unemployment would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), thus adopting a “precautionary” rate hike. In contrast, the current growth rate of both overall and core CPI is much higher than in 2015, and even higher than any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has truly faced the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>Regarding the rhythm of rate hike,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Federal Reserve followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After rate hike opened, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much time to wait this time. In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve repeatedly delayed its exit from easing, missing the best opportunity to exit. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to hold more than three rate hike this year, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points cannot even be ruled out. We have charted the path of this rate hike based on current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than to the previous rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of financial markets,</b>The slow pace of the last round of monetary tightening, coupled with relatively reasonable valuations of US stocks, prevented the stock market from undergoing much adjustment, and overall, the situation was \"calm\". Currently, US stocks are relatively highly valued and more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially rising interest rates. It seems that it will not be easy to smoothly navigate the entire rate hike process. In addition, in the low-interest-rate environment following the pandemic, the debt of the U.S. non-financial corporate sector expanded rapidly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it declined slightly in the second quarter, it was still at a historical high. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike begins, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In conclusion, this round of Fed tightening may be aggressive, and simply extrapolating from the previous tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the intensity of the tightening.</b>In our report, \"Inflation Soars, Fed Should Tighten as Soon as Possible,\" we pointed out that the current U.S. economy is like a high-speed car; it is difficult to slow down without braking. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve should take action as soon as possible, such as raising the rate hike by 50 basis points in March and hinting at more rate hike this year. In addition, the Federal Reserve should also initiate a \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective means to achieve this is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect the \"shrinking balance sheet\" to begin in the third quarter, but we cannot rule out the possibility of it being brought forward to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the 10-year US Treasury yield will break through 2.5%, and US stocks still have room for adjustment.</b>After the pandemic subsides, the US economic recovery is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may recover in tandem. If the Federal Reserve maintains a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and takes a firm stance, US Treasury yields may rise further. On the other hand, overly aggressive rate hike may trigger market concerns about a medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and intensified geopolitical shocks may also suppress risk appetite and limit the upside potential of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low-interest-rate environment over the past decade, the valuations of some stocks have expanded significantly, and their stock prices have risen substantially. If there is a liquidity tightening, the risk-free rate will rise, which will have an adverse impact on the valuation of these stocks. Although US stocks have recently experienced a correction, there may still be room for adjustment as the US Treasury yields upward trend has not ended.</p><p><b>Commodities are currently performing better and less affected by austerity measures.</b>First, the Fed's tightening is itself a confirmation of strong economic growth and is beneficial to commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed significantly over the past two years, and a synchronized global rebound in capital expenditure is expected after the pandemic, further increasing demand for goods (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: The Third Step of Global Recovery\"). Of course, the Federal Reserve's tightening will lead to higher interest rates and suppress corporate investment, but this process will have a time lag and may not happen in the first half of this year. In short,<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening may become the main theme in global asset pricing this year, and investors should not underestimate the magnitude of the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macroeconomic Data and Economic Events</p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The U.S. trade balance in December was -$80.7 billion, higher than the expected -$83 billion; Wholesale sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the expected 1.2%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for January was 97.1, lower than the expected 97.5; The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5 was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 61.7, lower than the expected 67.5.</p><p>The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in February was 16.6, higher than the expected 15.2. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%. GDP grew by 1% month-on-month in the three months of December, lower than the expected 1.1%; Industrial output grew by 0.3% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On February 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, stating that inflation risks were rising and hinting that the central bank’s monetary policy would “gradually change”[2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained “open-minded” about central bank digital currencies[3]. On February 10, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech, stating that every Fed interest rate meeting this year could be a rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet[4]. On February 11, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected the Fed to “steadily” rate hike and hoped that the Fed would restore interest rates to pre-pandemic levels “relatively quickly”[5].</p><p><b>This week's focus: macro data and economic events</b></p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The US January PPI month-on-month growth rate and the New York Fed manufacturing index for February will be released on Tuesday. Eurozone fourth-quarter annual GDP growth revision, fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter employment growth, December seasonally adjusted trade balance, February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The U.S. December business inventory month-on-month growth rate, January retail sales month-on-month growth rate, January import price index month-on-month growth rate, January industrial production month-on-month growth rate, and February NAHB housing market index will be released on Wednesday. Eurozone industrial output grew month-on-month in December. The annualized figures for new home starts in the United States in January, the total number of building permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 12 will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Conference Board released its leading indicators for January, showing the month-on-month growth rate and the annualized value of total existing home sales in January. Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account for December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to review and decide on lending ratios and discount rates; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Powell's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, as well as on the nominations of four other Federal Reserve officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. The Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday; The European Central Bank released its economic bulletin. On Friday, 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Evans, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, respectively. Saturday FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an economic outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161517578","content_text":"美国1月CPI数据再超预期，同比增速达7.5%，创1982年以来最高水平。数据公布后，市场对美联储紧缩的预期显著抬升，利率期货市场反映的3月加息50 bp的概率已超过90%，2022年加息预期次数也已达到7次。但从股市和债市情况来看，投资者仍在犹豫这次美联储紧缩是否仅是“雷声大，雨点小”。我们认为，市场仍然低估了这次美联储紧缩的力度及其潜在影响。投资者习惯于将上一轮美联储紧缩周期（2015—2018年）看作这次紧缩的参照系，但我们对比后发现，这次与上次非常不同。美联储主席鲍威尔在1月议息会议后也提到，“这次的经济与上一轮紧缩时不一样，我们的政策将会反映出这些差别。”这次的不同点在哪呢？最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。我们梳理了1980年以来6轮加息周期的初始条件，我们发现这次与之前几轮都不一样，尤其与上一轮相比差距最大。具体来看：►经济增长与就业方面，上一轮加息始于2015年12月，当时美国经济并不算强，加息前的一个季度GDP同比增速为2.2%，而这次加息前GDP增速高达5.5%。从这个角度看，这次加息更类似于始于1988、1999、2004年的三轮紧缩，加息前GDP增速均超过4%。就业方面，上一轮开启加息时失业率为5.1%，而当前失业率已降至4%的历史低位，这与1999年加息周期更为接近。►通胀方面，2015年加息时，美国核心CPI同比增速只有2%，整体CPI同比增速仅为0.5%（因为油价下跌），非但没有通胀上行风险，甚至还存在通缩的可能。美联储当时选择加息更多是出于对未来通胀上升的“信任”，官员们相信失业率下降终将推升通胀（即菲利普斯曲线框架），因此采取“预防性”加息。反观当下，无论是整体还是核心CPI增速，都远高于2015年，甚至比1980年以来任何一次加息周期都要更高。可以说，眼下是上世纪七十年代以来，美联储首次真正遭遇高通胀的挑战。► 加息节奏方面，在上一轮加息中，美联储遵循“渐近而可预期”（gradual and predictable）的原则：从Taper到加息，再到缩表，每一步都很谨慎，且每一步之间都相差两年。在加息开启后，第一次加息和第二次加息之间甚至还隔了一年之久。对比之下，这次美联储已经没有那么多时间可以等待。去年下半年，美联储在退出宽松时一拖再拖，错过了最好的退出时机。往前看，今年联储加息的次数大概率多于3次，甚至不排除一次性加息50 bp的可能性。我们根据目前市场的预期描绘了这次加息的路径，结果显示路径更接近于次贷危机前的加息周期，而不是上一轮加息。►金融市场方面，上一轮货币紧缩速度慢，加上美股估值相对合理，使股市并没有过多的调整，整体上“风平浪静”。目前美股估值相对较高，对外部环境变化、尤其是利率上升更敏感，想要平稳度过整个加息过程，似乎并不容易。此外，疫情后的低利率环境下，美国非金融企业部门债务迅速扩张，债务占GDP比例从2019年底的76%升至2021年一季度的85%，虽然二季度小幅回落，但仍处于历史高位。如果加息开启后利率显著上行，部分现金流表现较差的公司或面临信用风险暴露。总而言之，本轮联储紧缩可能来势汹汹，简单以上一轮紧缩周期外推可能会严重低估紧缩的力度。我们在报告《通胀爆表，美联储应尽快紧缩》中指出，当前的美国经济就像一辆高速行驶的汽车，如果不刹车，很难慢下来。往前看，美联储应尽快采取行动，比如在3月加息50 bp，并暗示年内有更多次数的加息。除此之外，美联储还应该开启“缩表”。抑制通胀最可靠办法是推高长端利率，而要达到这一目标，最有效的手段就是“缩表”。我们预计开启“缩表”的时间或在三季度，但也不排除提前到二季度的可能性。风险情形下，不排除10年期美债利率突破2.5%，美股仍有调整空间。疫情消退后，美国经济复苏有望继续深化，供给与需求可能共振复苏，如果美联储在三季度“缩表”且态度比较坚决，美债利率或进一步上行。但另一方面，加息过于激进或引发市场对中期经济放缓甚至衰退的担忧，地缘政治冲击加剧也可能抑制风险偏好，限制长端利率上行空间。股市方面，过去十年低利率环境下，部分股票估值扩张幅度较大，股价涨幅较多。如果流动性收紧，无风险利率抬升，将对这些股票的估值产生不利影响。近期美股虽经历了一波调整，但在美债利率上行未结束的情况下，股市或仍有调整空间。现阶段表现较好、受紧缩影响较小的是大宗商品。首先，美联储紧缩本身就是对经济增长强劲的确认，有利于商品。其次，过去两年全球资本开支明显放缓，疫情过后资本开支有望迎来一次全球性的同步反弹，进一步增加对商品的需求（请参考报告《资本开支：全球复苏的第三步》）。当然，美联储紧缩会导致利率上升，抑制企业投资，但这一过程会有时滞，未必在今年上半年发生。总之，我们认为美联储货币紧缩或成为今年全球资产价格定价的主线，对于紧缩的力度，投资者切不可低估。上周回顾：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：美国12月贸易帐为-807亿美元，高于预期的-830亿美元；12月批发销售月度环比增速0.2%，低于预期的1.2%；1月未季调CPI年度同比增速7.5%，高于预期的7.3%；1月季调后CPI月度环比增速0.6%，高于预期的0.5%；1月NFIB小型企业信心指数97.1，低于预期的97.5；至2月5日当周初请失业金人数为22.3万人，低于预期的23万人；2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.7，低于预期的67.5。欧元区2月Sentix投资者信心指数16.6，高于预期的15.2。英国第四季度GDP年度环比增速修正值为6.5%，高于预期的6.4%；12月三个月GDP月度环比增速1%，低于预期的1.1%；12月工业产出月度环比增速0.3%，高于预期的0.1%；12月制造业产出月度环比增速0.2%，高于预期的0.1%。经济事件：2月7日，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话，表示通胀风险正在上升，同时暗示央行货币政策将“逐步转变”[2]。2月9日，美联储理事鲍曼向社区银行家发表讲话，称其对央行数字货币保持\"开放心态\"[3]。2月10日，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话，表示今年的每一次美联储议息会议都有可能加息，并支持加速缩减央行资产负债表[4]。2月11日，2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金发表讲话，他预计美联储将\"稳步\"加息，并希望美联储\"相对较快\"地将利率恢复到疫情前的水平[5]。本周关注：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：周二公布美国1月PPI月度环比增速，2月纽约联储制造业指数；欧元区第四季度GDP年度同比增速修正值，第四季度季调后就业人数季度环比增速，12月季调后贸易帐，2月ZEW经济景气指数。周三公布美国12月商业库存月度环比增速，1月零售销售月度环比增速，1月进口物价指数月度环比增速，1月工业产出月度环比增速，2月NAHB房产市场指数；欧元区12月工业产出月度环比增速。周四公布美国1月新屋开工总数年化值，1月营建许可总数，2月费城联储制造业指数，至2月12日当周初请失业金人数。周五公布美国1月谘商会领先指标月度环比增速，1月成屋销售总数年化值；欧元区12月季调后经常帐。经济事件：周二美联储理事会召开闭门会议，审查并决定放贷比例和贴现率；美国参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔的美联储主席提名进行投票，同时也对其他四名美联储官员的提名进行投票；欧洲央行行长拉加德参加欧洲议会关于该央行2020年年度报告的辩论。周四美联储FOMC公布货币政策会议纪要；欧洲央行公布经济公报。周五2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯和美联储理事沃勒分别就美国经济和货币政策前景发表讲话。周六FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一次经济展望虚拟活动上做主旨演讲。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092278349,"gmtCreate":1644643377576,"gmtModify":1676533950498,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092278349","repostId":"2210821529","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092095589,"gmtCreate":1644481798252,"gmtModify":1676533932094,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092095589","repostId":"2210672645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2210672645","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644481416,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2210672645?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-10 16:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Layout Web 3.0? Microsoft hiring digital currency executive","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210672645","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"微软扩展版图的路线逐渐清晰。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Following the acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>After deploying cloud gaming,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>There's a new move.</p><p>On Monday, Microsoft posted a job posting on its recruitment website for a Digital Currency Development Director, seeking professionals who can help the company expand its reach in the digital currency space, and most importantly, in the Web 3.0 space.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b15ca1bec327c8ea587b686abe75c4\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In its job posting, Microsoft mentioned that this position belongs to human resources.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The emerging technology business development team needs to \"understand the Web 3.0 market\" and will be responsible for \"evaluating potential acquisitions\" and improving \"product usage and increasing adoption.\"</p><p>Other requirements and responsibilities for this position include:</p><p><ul><li>Lay the foundation for supporting and promoting Microsoft's Web 3.0 strategy;</li><li>Provide advice to leadership on key technologies and product roadmaps;</li><li>Collaborate with engineering teams across the company to understand when existing infrastructure can be leveraged, enhanced, or built;</li><li>Develop a vision, strategy, and roadmap for Microsoft's Web 3.0 collaboration model, including infrastructure and APIs;</li><li>Collaborate cross-functionally with engineering and other cross-functional teams to develop business development, build, purchase, and partner landscapes.</li></ul>The announcement also provided a more in-depth description of the role's responsibilities, including people management, customer and partner focus, partnership strategy, negotiations, and more importantly—transaction management—a sign that Microsoft intends to expand its footprint in the crypto finance space through an acquisition-focused strategy.</p><p>Web 3.0 is generally understood as the decentralized ecosystem of the current internet, and is now sometimes used as a synonym for cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, virtual reality/augmented reality, and the metaverse.</p><p>In fact, Microsoft began its Web 3.0 strategy when it was developing its cloud business. The cloud business also lived up to expectations, becoming one of Microsoft's most profitable divisions.</p><p>Microsoft's October 2021 quarterly report showed that cloud business has become the company's biggest revenue driver, with intelligent cloud business, including Azure public cloud, enterprise services, and GitHub, achieving revenue of $16.98 billion, exceeding expectations.</p><p>Building upon the underlying foundation of cloud computing, Microsoft has further expanded into cloud gaming, acquiring a series of game developers, including Blizzard Activision, aiming to target metaverse.</p><p>Following its foray into metaverse, Microsoft's move into cryptocurrencies takes it one step closer to Web 3.0.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Layout Web 3.0? Microsoft hiring digital currency executive</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLayout Web 3.0? Microsoft hiring digital currency executive\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-10 16:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Following the acquisition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">Activision Blizzard</a>After deploying cloud gaming,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>There's a new move.</p><p>On Monday, Microsoft posted a job posting on its recruitment website for a Digital Currency Development Director, seeking professionals who can help the company expand its reach in the digital currency space, and most importantly, in the Web 3.0 space.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b15ca1bec327c8ea587b686abe75c4\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In its job posting, Microsoft mentioned that this position belongs to human resources.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>The emerging technology business development team needs to \"understand the Web 3.0 market\" and will be responsible for \"evaluating potential acquisitions\" and improving \"product usage and increasing adoption.\"</p><p>Other requirements and responsibilities for this position include:</p><p><ul><li>Lay the foundation for supporting and promoting Microsoft's Web 3.0 strategy;</li><li>Provide advice to leadership on key technologies and product roadmaps;</li><li>Collaborate with engineering teams across the company to understand when existing infrastructure can be leveraged, enhanced, or built;</li><li>Develop a vision, strategy, and roadmap for Microsoft's Web 3.0 collaboration model, including infrastructure and APIs;</li><li>Collaborate cross-functionally with engineering and other cross-functional teams to develop business development, build, purchase, and partner landscapes.</li></ul>The announcement also provided a more in-depth description of the role's responsibilities, including people management, customer and partner focus, partnership strategy, negotiations, and more importantly—transaction management—a sign that Microsoft intends to expand its footprint in the crypto finance space through an acquisition-focused strategy.</p><p>Web 3.0 is generally understood as the decentralized ecosystem of the current internet, and is now sometimes used as a synonym for cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, virtual reality/augmented reality, and the metaverse.</p><p>In fact, Microsoft began its Web 3.0 strategy when it was developing its cloud business. The cloud business also lived up to expectations, becoming one of Microsoft's most profitable divisions.</p><p>Microsoft's October 2021 quarterly report showed that cloud business has become the company's biggest revenue driver, with intelligent cloud business, including Azure public cloud, enterprise services, and GitHub, achieving revenue of $16.98 billion, exceeding expectations.</p><p>Building upon the underlying foundation of cloud computing, Microsoft has further expanded into cloud gaming, acquiring a series of game developers, including Blizzard Activision, aiming to target metaverse.</p><p>Following its foray into metaverse, Microsoft's move into cryptocurrencies takes it one step closer to Web 3.0.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651559\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","MSFT":"微软","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651559","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210672645","content_text":"继收购动视暴雪布局云游戏之后，微软又有了新动作。本周一，微软在其招聘网站上发布了一则招聘数字货币开发总监的启事，寻找能帮助公司在数字货币领域，以及最重要的Web 3.0领域开疆扩土的专业人士。在招聘启事中，微软提到，这个职位归属于人工智能和新兴技术业务开发团队，需要“了解 Web 3.0 市场”，并且将负责“评估潜在收购”并改善“产品的使用和增加采用率”。该职位的其他要求和职责还包括：为支持和推广微软的 Web 3.0 战略奠定基础；就关键技术和产品路线图考虑向领导层提供建议；与整个公司的工程团队合作，了解何时可以利用、增强或构建现有基础架构；为微软的 Web 3.0 合作模式（包括基础架构和 API）制定愿景、战略和路线图；与工程和其他跨职能团队进行跨职能协作，以开发业务开发构建、购买、合作伙伴版图。启事还对这份职位的职责进行了更深入的描述，包括人员管理、客户和合作伙伴关注、合作战略、谈判、以及更重要的——交易管理——这是微软打算通过以收购为重点的战略扩大其在加密金融领域足迹的迹象。Web 3.0 通常理解为当下互联网的去中心化生态，现在有时也被用作加密货币、区块链技术、虚拟现实/增强现实和元宇宙的同义词。事实上，对于Web3.0的布局，微软从发展其云业务时就已经开始了。而云业务也不负期望，成为了微软最赚钱的部门之一。2021年10月微软季报显示，云业务已成公司营收最大的推力，包括Azure公共云、企业服务、GitHub等在内的智能云业务实现营收169.8亿美元，超出预期。在云计算的底层基础上，微软又进一步向云游戏扩张，收购了包括暴雪动视在内的一系列游戏厂商，剑指元宇宙。在布局元宇宙之后，微软此番涉足加密货币，又朝着Web 3.0更近了一步。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098228791,"gmtCreate":1644153250891,"gmtModify":1676533894612,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098228791","repostId":"2209332881","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209332881","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644139787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2209332881?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-06 17:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"CITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209332881","media":"CS宏观研究","summary":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday, but the mixed results in liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices will still fluctuate significantly. Actual US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors. The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles, and the swing in expectations of future Fed tightening may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of several CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, market investment revolved around energy supply, corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas prices have fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>—The view in the \"Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022\" (January 6, 2022) that oil prices will rise first (breaking through $90/barrel) and then fall throughout the year. 2) In the stock market, Asian stock indices led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Corporate earnings reports turned the tide, driving the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profitability factors of US-listed companies are unlikely to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) Expectations for Fed tightening, which led to a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday, did not ease significantly. On the contrary, they were further strengthened by strong US non-farm payroll data and hawkish tightening expectations from the Bank of Europe and the Bank of England, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The US job market has improved significantly but remains tight, and inflation in the Eurozone has unexpectedly risen. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm payrolls in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the US job market is steadily recovering and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain. On the other hand, the number of job vacancies remains high, and hourly wage growth exceeds expectations, indicating that the supply shortage in the US job market continues, and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, the Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high and far exceeding market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core harmonized CPI slowed down compared to the previous month. Eurozone inflation is mainly caused by high energy prices. The probability of a wage-price spiral risk is relatively low at present, and Eurozone inflation is expected to decline in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central banks and monetary policy: The Bank of England and the European Union have adopted hawkish stances, leading to a tightening of global monetary policy. As for the Bank of England, due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed a 25 basis point policy for rate hike at its February policy meeting by a vote of 5 to 4. Following the 15 basis point policy for rate hike last December, the Bank of England raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% again in rate hike. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced that it would end the reinvestment of maturing UK government bonds and should start selling corporate bonds, officially starting a shrinking balance sheet. The hawkishness exceeded market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) has seen a significant shift in its stance following the record-high January inflation data released the previous day. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's hawkish speech, abandoning her previously emphasized assertion that \"a rate hike is unlikely in 2022,\" may indicate that the ECB's monetary policy has officially begun to shift.</p><p>Looking ahead, the mixed performance of liquidity indicators suggests that asset price volatility will remain significant. The liquidity indicators for the Spring Festival holiday (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) reveal a mixed picture. The \"good news\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) Federal Reserve members are starting to speak to calm market anxieties about tightening. 2) Weakening the US Dollar Index is conducive to reducing the external debt pressure on emerging countries, mitigating unnecessary capital outflows, and freeing up more room and time for their domestic monetary policies to maneuver. However, long-term concerns about a global liquidity tide remain: although asset prices have rebounded recently, expectations of monetary tightening by major developed central banks have not eased, but have instead been further strengthened by high energy prices and the European Central Bank's accelerated tightening. Actual US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors. The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles, and the swing in expectations of future Fed tightening may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of several CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday.</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets rebounded slightly compared to before the holiday, with market investment focusing on energy supply, corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks. Among them,</p><p>Affected by severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, far exceeding those of other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas prices have fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>—The view in the \"Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022\" (January 6, 2022) that oil prices will rise first (breaking through $90/barrel) and then fall throughout the year.</p><p>In the stock market, Asian stock indices led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%. Earnings reports from companies like Amazon turned the tide, driving the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profitability factors of US-listed companies have little forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, which led to a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday, have not eased significantly. Expectations of tightening were further strengthened by strong US non-farm payroll data and hawkish tightening expectations from the central banks of Europe and the UK, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>US employment improved significantly but remained tight, while Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose.</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. US employment data exceeded expectations, while inflation in Europe unexpectedly rose.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is steadily recovering and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant. The United States added 467,000 non-farm payrolls in January, far exceeding market expectations (-400,000 to 250,000). Meanwhile, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was revised upward to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in the two months. Although the unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December last year, the labor force participation rate increased significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, only 0.5 percentage points lower than 62.7% in March 2020. Looking at the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industry contributed the largest increase. The requirement for vaccination certificates to enter indoor venues in some areas may have increased people's willingness to work in the leisure and hotel industry to some extent. Although the changes in the household survey sample in January 2021 compared to December 2020 may result in errors in directly comparing the data from the two months, the overall better-than-expected performance of the employment data still shows that the US job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant and is still on the road to steady recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Job vacancies remain high, and hourly wage growth exceeds expectations, indicating that the supply shortage in the U.S. job market continues, and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job openings in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million. Meanwhile, the number of job openings in November was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Along with the high number of job vacancies, wage levels continue to rise rapidly. In January 2022, both the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%, the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job vacancies coupled with high hourly wage growth indicates that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the supply shortage in the US job market. The rapid rise in wages and prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Eurozone's harmonized CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high, far exceeding market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core harmonized CPI slowed down compared to the previous month. The Eurozone HICP grew by 5.1% year-on-year in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 4.4%, and continuing to remain high after reaching 5.0% in December 2020. Looking at the sub-items, energy was the main factor driving up the Eurozone HICP, with energy prices rising by 28.6% year-on-year in January, while unprocessed food prices rose by 5.16% year-on-year. Excluding energy and food factors, the Eurozone core HICP grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January, a slight decrease from the previous month, but still exceeding market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Eurozone inflation is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of a wage-price spiral risk is currently relatively low. The rapid rise in energy prices has led to higher-than-expected inflation in the Eurozone, and the increase in energy prices may be related to the continued rise in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, influenced by broader price increases for goods and services, high inflation in the Eurozone is likely to remain high in the first half of the year. However, as energy prices continue to fall, Eurozone inflation is expected to decline in the second half of this year and may return to around 1.8% by the end of the year. Because wage growth in the Eurozone is relatively slow, the probability of a wage-price spiral risk is lower in Europe, unlike in the United States and the United Kingdom.</p><p><b>The Bank of England and the European Central Bank all adopted hawkish stances, leading to a tightening of global monetary policy.</b></p><p>During the Chinese New Year, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank issued hawkish signals, indicating that global monetary policy is tightening under high inflationary pressures.</p><p>The Bank of England rate hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its February policy meeting, while simultaneously initiating a shrinking balance sheet, showing a more hawkish stance than market expectations. Due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed a 25 basis point policy decision for rate hike by a vote of 5 to 4 at its February policy meeting. This marks the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has held two consecutive rate hike policy meetings, raising its policy interest rate to 0.5%, following rate hike' 15 basis point decision last December. Despite rate hike meeting market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it would end its reinvestment of maturing UK government bonds and initiate the sale of corporate bonds, officially starting a shrinking balance sheet. This hawkishness exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the Bank of England's determination to control inflation. At this policy meeting, some officials also proposed a 50bps rate hike, so the Bank of England may continue its rate hike.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released hawkish signals at its February policy meeting, and its sudden shift completely exceeded market expectations. The European Central Bank's attitude has changed dramatically following the record-high January inflation data released the previous day, which far exceeded market expectations. Although the meeting statement was generally in line with expectations, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting speech took a hawkish tone. First, Lagarde stated that the European Central Bank Governing Council is unanimously concerned that high inflation will last longer than expected; Secondly, she no longer insisted on her previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022,\" stating that \"the situation has indeed changed.\" The sudden shift in tone is similar to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's first statement that \"it's time to abandon the word 'temporary,'\" and may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy is about to officially begin to shift. However, even if the European Central Bank begins its rate hike, its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to subsequent changes in Eurozone inflation data.</p><p><b>Mixed liquidity indicators indicate that asset price volatility will remain significant.</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, the liquidity indicators (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed a mixed picture. The positive news of a potential marginal improvement in global liquidity comes from:</p><p>1) Federal Reserve members are beginning to speak to calm market anxieties about tightening. On February 1, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic changed his tune, stating that the Fed's rate hike would not be very aggressive and that he favored three rate hike this year. Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed his disapproval of a 50 basis point increase in rate hike. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly stated that monetary policy should be changed gradually, and the Fed's current monetary policy actions are not lagging behind the curve.</p><p>2) The temporary weakening of the US Dollar Index has freed up more room and time for monetary policy in emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has significant exchange rate weight against the euro and pound sterling, a weaker the US Dollar Index will indirectly boost emerging market commodity prices, reduce the external debt pressure on emerging countries, slow unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more room and time for domestic monetary policy maneuvers.</p><p>However, long-term concerns about a global liquidity tide remain: although asset prices have rebounded recently, expectations of monetary tightening by major developed central banks have not eased, but have instead been further strengthened by high energy prices and the European Central Bank's accelerated tightening. Actual US Treasury yields is expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles. The current economic cycle is in the transition from a mid-cycle to a later cycle, and the inflation environment is significantly different from the past. We suggest not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, as the swing range of future Federal Reserve tightening expectations may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of multiple CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1578966434845","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCITIC Securities: Joys and Sorrows in Overseas Markets During the Spring Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CS宏观研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-06 17:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday, but the mixed results in liquidity indicators indicate that asset prices will still fluctuate significantly. Actual US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors. The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles, and the swing in expectations of future Fed tightening may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of several CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday. During the Spring Festival, market investment revolved around energy supply, corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks. Among them, 1) Affected by the severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, much higher than other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas prices have fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>—The view in the \"Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022\" (January 6, 2022) that oil prices will rise first (breaking through $90/barrel) and then fall throughout the year. 2) In the stock market, Asian stock indices led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>Corporate earnings reports turned the tide, driving the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profitability factors of US-listed companies are unlikely to have a forward-looking impact on other markets. 3) Expectations for Fed tightening, which led to a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday, did not ease significantly. On the contrary, they were further strengthened by strong US non-farm payroll data and hawkish tightening expectations from the Bank of Europe and the Bank of England, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 1.9%.</p><p>Economic data: The US job market has improved significantly but remains tight, and inflation in the Eurozone has unexpectedly risen. In the United States, on the one hand, the number of new non-farm payrolls in January 2022 exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the US job market is steadily recovering and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant strain. On the other hand, the number of job vacancies remains high, and hourly wage growth exceeds expectations, indicating that the supply shortage in the US job market continues, and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. In Europe, the Eurozone harmonized CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high and far exceeding market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core harmonized CPI slowed down compared to the previous month. Eurozone inflation is mainly caused by high energy prices. The probability of a wage-price spiral risk is relatively low at present, and Eurozone inflation is expected to decline in the second half of this year.</p><p>Central banks and monetary policy: The Bank of England and the European Union have adopted hawkish stances, leading to a tightening of global monetary policy. As for the Bank of England, due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed a 25 basis point policy for rate hike at its February policy meeting by a vote of 5 to 4. Following the 15 basis point policy for rate hike last December, the Bank of England raised its policy interest rate to 0.5% again in rate hike. At this meeting, the Bank of England also announced that it would end the reinvestment of maturing UK government bonds and should start selling corporate bonds, officially starting a shrinking balance sheet. The hawkishness exceeded market expectations. The European Central Bank (ECB) has seen a significant shift in its stance following the record-high January inflation data released the previous day. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's hawkish speech, abandoning her previously emphasized assertion that \"a rate hike is unlikely in 2022,\" may indicate that the ECB's monetary policy has officially begun to shift.</p><p>Looking ahead, the mixed performance of liquidity indicators suggests that asset price volatility will remain significant. The liquidity indicators for the Spring Festival holiday (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) reveal a mixed picture. The \"good news\" that global liquidity may improve marginally comes from: 1) Federal Reserve members are starting to speak to calm market anxieties about tightening. 2) Weakening the US Dollar Index is conducive to reducing the external debt pressure on emerging countries, mitigating unnecessary capital outflows, and freeing up more room and time for their domestic monetary policies to maneuver. However, long-term concerns about a global liquidity tide remain: although asset prices have rebounded recently, expectations of monetary tightening by major developed central banks have not eased, but have instead been further strengthened by high energy prices and the European Central Bank's accelerated tightening. Actual US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors. The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles, and the swing in expectations of future Fed tightening may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of several CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global risk assets rebounded slightly during the Spring Festival holiday compared to before the holiday.</p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, global risk assets rebounded slightly compared to before the holiday, with market investment focusing on energy supply, corporate earnings, and expectations of monetary tightening by major central banks. Among them,</p><p>Affected by severe cold weather in the United States and supply disruptions in oil-producing countries, international oil prices have risen by as much as 5-6% in the past week, far exceeding those of other commodities. However, as the European energy crisis gradually shows signs of easing, European natural gas prices have fallen by more than 10% in the past week. We maintain the \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">CITIC Securities</a>—The view in the \"Top Ten Outlooks for Overseas Markets in 2022\" (January 6, 2022) that oil prices will rise first (breaking through $90/barrel) and then fall throughout the year.</p><p>In the stock market, Asian stock indices led the gains, while the three major US stock indexes rebounded by more than 1%. Earnings reports from companies like Amazon turned the tide, driving the Nasdaq to rebound by more than 2%. However, due to the asynchronous economic and profit cycles, the profitability factors of US-listed companies have little forward-looking impact on other markets.</p><p>Expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, which led to a sharp decline in global stock markets before the holiday, have not eased significantly. Expectations of tightening were further strengthened by strong US non-farm payroll data and hawkish tightening expectations from the central banks of Europe and the UK, with the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 1.9%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0be7e8c223261cd02dc52aa37ed6e44\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>US employment improved significantly but remained tight, while Eurozone inflation unexpectedly rose.</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival, the United States and Europe released important economic data. US employment data exceeded expectations, while inflation in Europe unexpectedly rose.</p><p>In January 2022, the number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States exceeded expectations, and the labor force participation rate increased significantly, indicating that the U.S. job market is steadily recovering and has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant. The United States added 467,000 non-farm payrolls in January, far exceeding market expectations (-400,000 to 250,000). Meanwhile, the number of new non-farm payrolls in November and December last year was revised upward to 647,000 and 510,000 respectively, with a cumulative increase of 709,000 in the two months. Although the unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.0% from 3.9% in December last year, the labor force participation rate increased significantly by 0.3 percentage points to 62.2%, only 0.5 percentage points lower than 62.7% in March 2020. Looking at the breakdown data, the leisure and hotel industry contributed the largest increase. The requirement for vaccination certificates to enter indoor venues in some areas may have increased people's willingness to work in the leisure and hotel industry to some extent. Although the changes in the household survey sample in January 2021 compared to December 2020 may result in errors in directly comparing the data from the two months, the overall better-than-expected performance of the employment data still shows that the US job market has not been significantly affected by the Omicron variant and is still on the road to steady recovery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4818e24c9c03bd09f032cc1797532e31\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15361daafa55dc6bd6d4815bae611bb4\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Job vacancies remain high, and hourly wage growth exceeds expectations, indicating that the supply shortage in the U.S. job market continues, and the risk of a wage-price spiral continues to rise. The number of job openings in the United States reached 10.925 million in December 2021, significantly higher than the expected 10.3 million. Meanwhile, the number of job openings in November was revised upward from 10.562 million to 10.775 million. Along with the high number of job vacancies, wage levels continue to rise rapidly. In January 2022, both the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%, the largest increase since May 2020. The high number of job vacancies coupled with high hourly wage growth indicates that employers are trying to raise wages to attract labor, but it is still difficult to change the supply shortage in the US job market. The rapid rise in wages and prices has further increased the risk of a wage-price spiral in the United States.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f84c2e46564df549e0c064c89edd703\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7025404106bbecd1dbc3e5374c8530a8\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Eurozone's harmonized CPI rose 5.1% year-on-year in January, a record high, far exceeding market expectations, while the year-on-year growth rate of the core harmonized CPI slowed down compared to the previous month. The Eurozone HICP grew by 5.1% year-on-year in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 4.4%, and continuing to remain high after reaching 5.0% in December 2020. Looking at the sub-items, energy was the main factor driving up the Eurozone HICP, with energy prices rising by 28.6% year-on-year in January, while unprocessed food prices rose by 5.16% year-on-year. Excluding energy and food factors, the Eurozone core HICP grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January, a slight decrease from the previous month, but still exceeding market expectations.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6fe9d9446fcfbb259344a332a30b468\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3460a8cc1a7514e31d1303a90ffbb2\" tg-width=\"653\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Eurozone inflation is mainly caused by high energy prices, and the probability of a wage-price spiral risk is currently relatively low. The rapid rise in energy prices has led to higher-than-expected inflation in the Eurozone, and the increase in energy prices may be related to the continued rise in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, influenced by broader price increases for goods and services, high inflation in the Eurozone is likely to remain high in the first half of the year. However, as energy prices continue to fall, Eurozone inflation is expected to decline in the second half of this year and may return to around 1.8% by the end of the year. Because wage growth in the Eurozone is relatively slow, the probability of a wage-price spiral risk is lower in Europe, unlike in the United States and the United Kingdom.</p><p><b>The Bank of England and the European Central Bank all adopted hawkish stances, leading to a tightening of global monetary policy.</b></p><p>During the Chinese New Year, both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank issued hawkish signals, indicating that global monetary policy is tightening under high inflationary pressures.</p><p>The Bank of England rate hike interest rates by 25 basis points at its February policy meeting, while simultaneously initiating a shrinking balance sheet, showing a more hawkish stance than market expectations. Due to rising inflation, the Bank of England passed a 25 basis point policy decision for rate hike by a vote of 5 to 4 at its February policy meeting. This marks the first time since 2004 that the Bank of England has held two consecutive rate hike policy meetings, raising its policy interest rate to 0.5%, following rate hike' 15 basis point decision last December. Despite rate hike meeting market expectations, the Bank of England also announced at this meeting that it would end its reinvestment of maturing UK government bonds and initiate the sale of corporate bonds, officially starting a shrinking balance sheet. This hawkishness exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the Bank of England's determination to control inflation. At this policy meeting, some officials also proposed a 50bps rate hike, so the Bank of England may continue its rate hike.</p><p>The European Central Bank also released hawkish signals at its February policy meeting, and its sudden shift completely exceeded market expectations. The European Central Bank's attitude has changed dramatically following the record-high January inflation data released the previous day, which far exceeded market expectations. Although the meeting statement was generally in line with expectations, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting speech took a hawkish tone. First, Lagarde stated that the European Central Bank Governing Council is unanimously concerned that high inflation will last longer than expected; Secondly, she no longer insisted on her previously emphasized assertion that \"rate hike is unlikely in 2022,\" stating that \"the situation has indeed changed.\" The sudden shift in tone is similar to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's first statement that \"it's time to abandon the word 'temporary,'\" and may indicate that the European Central Bank's monetary policy is about to officially begin to shift. However, even if the European Central Bank begins its rate hike, its first rate hike will take place after it stops expanding its balance sheet. At the same time, further attention needs to be paid to subsequent changes in Eurozone inflation data.</p><p><b>Mixed liquidity indicators indicate that asset price volatility will remain significant.</b></p><p>During the Spring Festival holiday, the liquidity indicators (US Treasury yields + the US Dollar Index) revealed a mixed picture. The positive news of a potential marginal improvement in global liquidity comes from:</p><p>1) Federal Reserve members are beginning to speak to calm market anxieties about tightening. On February 1, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic changed his tune, stating that the Fed's rate hike would not be very aggressive and that he favored three rate hike this year. Philadelphia Fed President Harker expressed his disapproval of a 50 basis point increase in rate hike. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daly stated that monetary policy should be changed gradually, and the Fed's current monetary policy actions are not lagging behind the curve.</p><p>2) The temporary weakening of the US Dollar Index has freed up more room and time for monetary policy in emerging market countries. Although the US Dollar Index mainly has significant exchange rate weight against the euro and pound sterling, a weaker the US Dollar Index will indirectly boost emerging market commodity prices, reduce the external debt pressure on emerging countries, slow unnecessary capital outflows, and free up more room and time for domestic monetary policy maneuvers.</p><p>However, long-term concerns about a global liquidity tide remain: although asset prices have rebounded recently, expectations of monetary tightening by major developed central banks have not eased, but have instead been further strengthened by high energy prices and the European Central Bank's accelerated tightening. Actual US Treasury yields is expected to fluctuate upwards to around 0 in the future, which remains one of the main risks for overvalued sectors.</p><p>The global economic cycle under the external shocks of this round of the pandemic is not very comparable to previous cycles. The current economic cycle is in the transition from a mid-cycle to a later cycle, and the inflation environment is significantly different from the past. We suggest not to easily apply the model of the previous round of Federal Reserve tightening cycles, as the swing range of future Federal Reserve tightening expectations may be relatively limited. Therefore, in terms of overall allocation, we still recommend prioritizing defense and waiting for the release of multiple CPI data releases in March and details of monetary policies from European and American central banks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1214aa08c4d549c32893e7a076e6080\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html\">CS宏观研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4270e14fdc3e34096f78e73c39325f97","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","06030":"中信证券","BK1564":"中资券商股","BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/653826.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209332881","content_text":"核心观点春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，但流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动依然较大。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。摘要春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖。春节期间，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，1)受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗商品。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。2)股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%，亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。3)节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和，反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。经济数据：美国就业市场显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高。美国方面，一方面，2022年1月新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。另一方面，职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。欧洲方面，1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，且远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较前月有所回落。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落。央行与货币政策：英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩。英国央行方面，由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应当启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。欧洲央行方面，由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话一展鹰派风格，不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，或将预示着欧洲央行货币政策正式开始转向。展望未来，流动性指标的“喜忧参半”预示着资产价格波动会依然较大。春节假期流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2)美元指数走弱，有利于降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪了更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上，我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧美央行货币政策细节落地。正文春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖春节假期期间全球风险资产较节前略有回暖，市场投资的主线围绕能源供给、企业财报盈利以及主要央行货币紧缩预期展开。其中，受美国严寒天气、产油国供应中断等影响，国际油价近一周涨幅高达5-6%，远高于其他大宗。不过，随着欧洲能源危机逐步显露缓解迹象，欧洲天然气近一周下跌超10%。我们维持《中信证券—2022年海外市场十大展望》(2022-1-6)中油价全年先升(突破90美元/桶)后降的观点。股市方面，亚洲股指涨幅居前，美股三大股指反弹幅度超1%。亚马逊等企业财报力挽狂澜带动纳斯达克反弹超2%，但由于经济和盈利周期的不同步，美股企业盈利因素对其他市场难有前瞻影响。节前导致全球股市大幅下跌的美联储紧缩预期并没有显著缓和。紧缩预期反而在强劲的美国非农就业数据、欧洲和英国央行鹰派紧缩预期下进一步强化，10年期美债利率突破1.9%。美国就业显著改善但仍显紧俏，欧元区通胀意外走高春节期间美国和欧洲公布了重要经济数据，美国就业数据超预期向好，而欧洲通胀水平则意外走高。2022年1月美国新增非农就业人数超预期，劳动力参与率显著提升，显示美国就业市场稳步复苏，未明显受到Omicron变异毒株影响。美国1月新增非农就业人数46.7万人，远高于市场预期(-40万人~25万人)，同时去年11月和12月新增非农就业人数分别上调至64.7万人和51万人，两月上调累计增长70.9万人。尽管失业率较去年12月的3.9%小幅回升至4.0%，但劳动力参与率显著提升0.3个百分点至62.2%，仅与2020年3月的62.7%相差0.5个百分点。从分项数据看，休闲和酒店业贡献了最大增幅，部分地区进入室内场所需要出示疫苗接种证明的规定或许在一定程度上提升了人们进入休闲酒店业工作的意愿。尽管2021年1月的家庭调查样本较2020年12月发生变化导致直接比较两月的数据可能存在误差，但是就业数据整体超预期的表现依然显示美国就业市场并未明显受到Omicron变异毒株的影响，仍走在稳步修复的道路上。职位空缺数仍高，时薪增速超预期，显示美国就业市场供不应求状态延续，工资-价格螺旋风险继续上升。2021年12月美国职位空缺数达到1092.5万，显著高于预期的1030万，同时11月职位空缺数由1056.2万上修至1077.5万。与职位空缺数高企相伴随的是薪资水平不断快速增长，2022年1月美国非农就业时薪环比和同比增速均超预期，5.7%的同比增速创2020年5月以来的最大增幅。职位空缺数高叠加时薪增速高，显示雇主努力提升工资吸引劳动力，但依然难以改变美国就业市场供不应求的状况。而工资价格的快速上涨也进一步增加了美国出现工资-价格螺旋的风险。1月欧元区调和CPI同比增长5.1%，创历史新高，远高于市场预期，核心调和CPI同比增速则较上月有所回落。1月欧元区HICP同比增速达5.1%，远高于市场预期的4.4%，继2020年12月达到5.0%以后，继续居高不下。从分项看，能源项是推升欧元区HICP的主要因素，1月能源项价格同比上涨达28.6%，而未经加工食品价格同比上涨5.16%。剔除能源和食品因素后，1月欧元区核心HICP同比增速为2.3%，较上月有所回落，但仍然超出市场预期。欧元区通胀主要由能源价格高企所致，目前出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率还相对较低。能源项价格的快速增长导致了欧元区通胀增长超预期，而能源项价格的增长可能与原油价格持续上行有关。同时在更广泛的商品和服务价格上涨影响下，欧元区的高通胀可能仍将在上半年维持高位，但随着能源价格后续回落，预计欧元区通胀可能将在今年下半年回落，年底可能回到1.8%左右的水平。由于欧元区工资增速相对平缓，因此，与美国英国不同，欧洲出现工资-价格螺旋风险的概率较低。英欧央行齐放鹰，全球货币政策走向紧缩春节期间英国央行和欧洲央行均发出鹰派信号，在高通胀压力下，全球货币政策正在走向紧缩。英国央行在2月的议息会议上加息25pbs，同时开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期。由于通胀不断上升，英国央行在2月议息会议上以5票比4票的票型通过了加息25bps的决定，继去年12月加息15bps后再次加息，将其政策利率上调至0.5%，这是英国央行自2004年以来首次出现连续两次议息会议均加息的情况。尽管加息符合市场预期，但是英国央行在本次会议上还宣布结束对英国政府债券的到期再投资，同时应启动出售公司债券，正式开启缩表，鹰派程度超出市场预期，体现英国央行治理通胀的决心。而本次议息会议上还有部分官员提议加息50bps，因此后续英国央行或还将继续加息。欧洲央行在2月的议息会议上同样释放鹰派信号，其突然的转向完全超出市场预期。由于前一天公布的1月通胀数据创历史新高且远超市场预期，欧洲央行态度发生巨大转变。尽管会议声明总体符合预期，但会后欧洲央行行长拉加德的讲话则一展鹰派风格。首先，拉加德表示欧洲央行管委会一致担忧通胀高企时间长于预期;其次，她不再坚持此前一直强调的“2022年不太可能加息”的论断，表示“情况确实发生了变化”。其论调的突然转向与美联储主席鲍威尔首次表示“是时候放弃‘暂时性’这个词”有异曲同工之意，或预示着欧洲央行货币政策将正式开始转向。不过，即便欧洲央行开始加息，其首次加息的时点也将在停止扩表之后进行。同时，还需进一步关注后续欧元区通胀数据的变化。流动性指标“喜忧参半”预示资产价格波动依然较大春节假期期间，流动性指标(美债利率+美元指数)透露出“喜忧参半”的特点。全球流动性可能边际好转的“喜”来自：1)美联储开始有委员讲话安抚市场对紧缩的焦虑。2月1日亚特兰大联储主席Bostic改口称美联储加息不会很激进，其倾向年内加息3次;费城联储主席Harker表示不赞成一次加息50bp;旧金山联储主席Daly表示应循序渐进转变货币政策，当前美联储的货币政策行动并不滞后于曲线。2)美元指数阶段性走弱，为新兴市场国家的货币政策腾挪了更多操作空间和时间。尽管美元指数主要是兑欧元和英镑汇率权重大，但是美元指数的弱势会间接提振新兴市场商品价格，降低新兴国家的外部债务压力，减缓不必要的资金外流，为其国内货币政策腾挪出更多的更多货币操作空间和时间。但是，全球流动性退潮的长期隐“忧”依然存在：尽管资产价格近期有所反弹，但主要发达央行的货币紧缩预期并没有缓和，反而因能源价格高企、欧洲央行紧缩提速而进一步强化。预计实际美债利率未来会震荡上行至0附近，其对高估值板块依然是主要风险之一。本轮疫情外部冲击下的全球经济周期与以往周期不太可比，当前的经济周期处于中周期向后周期过渡，通胀环境明显不同于以往，我们建议不要轻易套用上一轮美联储紧缩周期的模式，未来美联储紧缩预期的回摆幅度可能相对有限。因此，整体配置上我们仍建议以防御为上，等待3月多项CPI数据和欧、美央行货币政策细节落地。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600030":1,"06030":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments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17:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are advised to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Stock Connect service will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are advised to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Stock Connect service will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"STI.SI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004782061,"gmtCreate":1642691484257,"gmtModify":1676533736308,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004782061","repostId":"1177338378","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004209118,"gmtCreate":1642602163407,"gmtModify":1676533726355,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004209118","repostId":"1178155096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005303553,"gmtCreate":1642165305239,"gmtModify":1676533687987,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005303553","repostId":"1119435888","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119435888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641877579,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119435888?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-11 13:06","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on January 17th, Martin Luther King Jr. Day.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119435888","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。【背景简介】马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，192","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On January 17, 2022 (next Monday), the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day.</p><p>Hong Kong, A-share, UK, Australian, and Singapore stock markets all traded as usual.</p><p><b>[Background Introduction]</b></p><p>Martin Luther King, Jr. (January 15, 1929 – April 4, 1968) was an African American pastor, social activist, and leader of the Black civil rights movement. The third Monday of January each year is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a federal holiday in the United States. This is one of three statutory holidays in the United States that commemorate individuals, the other two being \"Columbus Day\" and \"Presidents' Day,\" which commemorates former presidents Abraham Lincoln and George Washington.</p><p>American schools, government and federal agencies are closed on this day. There will be a memorial service and memorial service on Monday. On the Sunday before that, pastors from all regions will deliver special sermons to remind everyone to remember Martin Luther King's life of pursuing peace.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on January 17th, Martin Luther King Jr. Day.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on January 17th, Martin Luther King Jr. Day.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-11 13:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On January 17, 2022 (next Monday), the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day.</p><p>Hong Kong, A-share, UK, Australian, and Singapore stock markets all traded as usual.</p><p><b>[Background Introduction]</b></p><p>Martin Luther King, Jr. (January 15, 1929 – April 4, 1968) was an African American pastor, social activist, and leader of the Black civil rights movement. The third Monday of January each year is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, a federal holiday in the United States. This is one of three statutory holidays in the United States that commemorate individuals, the other two being \"Columbus Day\" and \"Presidents' Day,\" which commemorates former presidents Abraham Lincoln and George Washington.</p><p>American schools, government and federal agencies are closed on this day. There will be a memorial service and memorial service on Monday. On the Sunday before that, pastors from all regions will deliver special sermons to remind everyone to remember Martin Luther King's life of pursuing peace.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a20806b6a04306399445ed6d5d60d1e4","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119435888","content_text":"2022年1月17日（下周一），因马丁·路德·金纪念日，美股休市一天。港股、A股、英股、澳大利亚和新加坡股市均照常交易。【背景简介】马丁·路德·金（Martin Luther King, Jr，1929年1月15日—1968年4月4日），非裔美国人，美国牧师、社会活动家、黑人民权运动领袖。每年1月的第三个星期一，是美国联邦法定假日——马丁·路德·金纪念日。这是美国三个纪念个人的法定假日之一，另外两个是“哥伦布日”，和纪念前总统亚伯拉罕·林肯和乔治·华盛顿的“总统节”。美国学校、政府和联邦机构在这一天都不开放。星期一会有追思仪式及纪念仪式。而在此之前的星期日，所有地区的牧师都会进行特殊布道，提醒每个人缅怀马丁·路德·金追求和平的一生。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002454727,"gmtCreate":1642080760818,"gmtModify":1676533678673,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002454727","repostId":"2203750840","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006687328,"gmtCreate":1641712606986,"gmtModify":1676533642323,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006687328","repostId":"2201147402","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001814235,"gmtCreate":1641216117163,"gmtModify":1676533583652,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001814235","repostId":"1109356305","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001990463,"gmtCreate":1641131472787,"gmtModify":1676533574730,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001990463","repostId":"2200790449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003393516,"gmtCreate":1640872653944,"gmtModify":1676533549555,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003393516","repostId":"2195613462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2195613462","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1640843749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2195613462?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 13:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global central banks fight inflation in 2021 and are busy \"collecting water\" in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195613462","media":"智通财经网","summary":"全球央行货币政策2021年终盘点及2022年预测。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly remain the main tone in 2021, and the supply chain problems brought by it have become the bottleneck of the global economy. At the same time, the explosive growth of demand brought by the economic opening has aggravated the problem of supply exceeding demand, and the soaring commodity prices in the second half of the year have further contributed to the price increase. There is no doubt that inflation has become the central topic of global monetary policy this year. Hot inflation is worrying, and many central banks inevitably have to \"cool down\" prices.</p><p>Inflation becomes a 'hot potato' in 2021</p><p>For the world's major central banks, soaring prices are the \"hot potato\" that can't be avoided in 2021. But the dilemma for the major central banks is that it is not entirely certain to what extent inflation is driven by the recovery in demand after the end of lockdowns, and to what extent it is driven by supply constraints caused by clogged ports and shortages of materials and workers. Higher interest rates will slow demand and do little to ease supply bottlenecks, while demand is an important driver in helping the world out of the pandemic-induced recession. If supply shortages ease as trade returns to normal, policies could end up being too tight, stifling the recovery.</p><p>As a result, for most of the year, many central banks argued that \"inflation is a temporary phenomenon\" due to the speed of economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks; Some central banks have chosen to wait and see what happens, hoping that the pressure of soaring inflation can be eased after the supply chain problem is resolved.</p><p>However, when the short-term stimulus effect of large-scale fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy disappeared, accompanied by the energy crisis, the epidemic caused the imbalance of supply chain and labor shortage, and the shortage of supply made the global inflation increasingly high. Moreover, rising prices are gradually guiding inflation expectations to rise steadily, and major central banks can only begin to tighten their purse pockets to curb an overheated economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b0f4258c71cd305613fa26ae29bbc7\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Central banks tackle inflation</p><p>The following are the monetary policy trends of major global central banks in 2021 compiled by Zhitong Finance APP:</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Gradually Abandon the \"Inflation Temporary Theory\", Taper Goes First, rate hike Expectations Strong</b></p><p>The view that most Fed officials have maintained for most of this year is that the current price increases are transitional and that supply chain bottlenecks and other factors are likely to fade. However, with the \"substantial\" progress in the U.S. economy and employment, and the gradual embedding of high inflation in expectations, it is increasingly difficult for the Fed to adhere to the \"temporary theory\", and then the eagle posture is full.</p><p>In the first half of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift began to be released to the market, but the Federal Reserve repeatedly insisted that it would not shift its monetary policy in advance; In the first half of the year, the Fed's policy tone remained pigeonish, and it generally stood still, optimistic about the economy and downplayed the inflation risk. Since the April meeting, with the increase of COVID-19 vaccination rate, the economic recovery of the United States has further accelerated. In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized the help of vaccination to the epidemic and the economy, and expressed optimism about the economic outlook of the United States. As the economy performed beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve released a turning signal at its June meeting and began preliminary discussions on the Taper plan.</p><p>Entering the second half of the year, the Fed's policy has become more and more hawkish. Zhitong Finance APP has reported that Fed officials made a plan at the meeting on July 27-28 to slow down the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. This is the first time that the Fed has explicitly discussed reducing bond purchases at the meeting after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. In September, officials first discussed the specific path to downsizing; Participants also mentioned the upside risks of inflation, saying that inflation levels will likely last longer than expected. On November 4, the Fed launched its Taper program, which began tapering in November and will end in June 2022; Reduce monthly asset purchases by $15 billion. It is worth noting that the bank still did not abandon the controversial word \"transitional\" for inflation in November.</p><p>But since the FOMC meeting in November, data shows that inflation in the United States is running at its highest rate in more than 30 years. On December 1st, Powell suddenly turned hawk: \"I think now may be a good time to abandon the description of 'temporary'.\" He also stressed that he would remain vigilant in controlling inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3e423a3b1240f9aa8633cdfba7042c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. CPI annual rate</p><p>It is clear that Powell's hawkish speech in early December was in preparation for the December 16th interest rate resolution. At the policy meeting in December, the Federal Reserve accelerated the timetable for ending QE and promised to end the large-scale bond purchase program by March next year, instead of June as originally planned, in order to prepare for an early rate hike.</p><p>The Fed dot plot shows that all commissioners expect the Fed to begin a rate hike in 2022, specifically three rate hike in 2022 and 2023. Commissioners are hawkish on policy moves, firmly leaning towards rate hike. Of the 18 FOMC members, only six expect fewer than three rate hike next year, and none see interest rates remain at their current near-zero levels next year.</p><p>Powell believes the Fed needs to look at inflation as a more pressing risk and has raised its '21 and' 22 inflation outlook. He also said that the Federal Reserve may rate hike before achieving full employment. In November, he said that the U.S. job market may improve enough before the middle of next year, and it can be considered that \"maximum employment\" will be reached. In other words, rate hike is possible by June next year.</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Medium-term inflationary pressure is small, easing policy is still the main tone</b></p><p>Despite high prices in the eurozone this year, the ECB has maintained a dovish stance as long-term inflationary pressures in the eurozone remain weak. The European Central Bank has always been a staunch supporter of \"inflation temporary theory\", and the core of its policy lies in adjusting its flexibility of easing policy to quickly meet the demand of economic growth.</p><p>In the first half of the year, ultra-loose monetary policy remained the main tone of the European Central Bank. Entering the second half of the year, against the background of soaring inflation and strong economic growth, in September, although the European Central Bank decided to keep the scale of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) and the bond purchase speed of the Asset Purchase Program (APP) unchanged; However, it plans to slow down the pace of Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the ECB still insisted at its October meeting that high inflation is still largely considered temporary, but that the current price \"hump\" will be more persistent than previously thought, increasing the risk that wages will begin to adjust and keep price growth high. Both Eagle and Dove agree that next year's rate hike is premature, while the disagreement is over the pace of continuing stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.</p><p>On December 16th, compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which announced the interest rate decision on the same day, the position of the European Central Bank was very \"dovish\". The central bank seemed to have just changed the way to continue QE, hoping to guide the euro zone economies to steadily tide over the difficulties of economic growth. The ECB said the emergency purchase programme (PEPP) adopted due to the Covid pandemic will be scaled back next quarter and is expected to end in March 2022, but it is possible to resume the PEPP programme at any time. However, monetary policy in quantitative easing has not come to an end. European policymakers plan to increase the conventional bond purchase program (APP) to 40 billion euros a month from the second quarter of next year, then shrink to 30 billion euros in the next three months, and finally return to the normalized scale of 20 billion euros in October.</p><p>In addition, there were officials signaling rate hike at the end of December. On December 22nd, Robert Holzmann, member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and president of the Austrian Central Bank, said, \"2022 will decide whether to suspend bond purchases in a data-driven way. In extreme cases, it is possible that a rate hike will be held at the end of next year or early 2023, roughly the same time as the third rate hike in the United States.\"</p><p><b>Bank of England: The unpredictable 'unreliable boyfriend', the first major central bank in rate hike</b></p><p>For most of the time this year, the Bank of England mainly focused on easing policies to support economic recovery, and it also insisted that inflation would be temporary; However, as the situation developed, the Bank of England became the first major central bank in rate hike in response to increasingly severe inflationary pressures, but it still couldn't handle hot prices.</p><p>What sets the Bank of England apart from other central banks is the vagaries of its policymakers, often catching markets off guard, which became a hallmark of the Bank of England. Bailey, the governor of the bank, was called \"Unreliable Boyfriend No.2\" by reporters, and Carney, the former governor, was also nicknamed \"Unreliable Boyfriend\". This was mainly because the communication between the Bank of England and the market was too poor, and it seemed that the policymakers of the Bank of England always had different words and deeds, and repeatedly jumped in the position of eagle pigeon.</p><p>On September 23rd, according to the interest rate decision, Bank of England officials unanimously voted to keep the main interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged; Its core expectation is that current global cost pressures will prove temporary.</p><p>But in August, UK inflation rose 3.2pc year-on-year, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, and significantly exceeded the bank's 2pc target. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, analysts expect it to be a short respite for consumers. UK CPI rose 4.2% in October; Some Bank of England policymakers, such as Governor Bailey and prominent hawk Micheal Saunders, have hinted at support for an immediate rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65d10eae0fb3746795c8c3604040c12\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>UK CPI annual rate</p><p>But on November 4, the Bank of England once again kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchases unchanged, bucking expectations from many investors that the Bank of England would be the first major central bank to rate hike after the pandemic. Many investors slammed the bank for not being as rate hike as expected and for being too poorly communicated with the market.</p><p>UK inflation hit a 10-year high in November, with CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Despite high prices, thanks to the situation in November, there are still a large chunk of investors betting that the Bank of England will not rate hike.</p><p>However, on December 16th, the Bank of England couldn't bear the inflationary pressure after all, and raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, which surprised the market. This was the first time that the bank raised the benchmark interest rate since the COVID-19 epidemic. The Bank of England has thus become the first central bank to rate hike among the world's three largest central banks.</p><p><b>Other central banks: rate hike suppresses inflation into the mainstream</b></p><p>As economies gradually recover from last year's recession, inflation seems to have exceeded policymakers' expectations, and the positions of major central banks have turned. Most central banks have even taken aggressive steps to start withdrawing monetary stimulus measures to avoid the unanchor of underlying inflation expectations.</p><p>Although the Bank of Japan still maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy, it will partially withdraw from the corporate financing policy launched in response to the COVID-19 epidemic after its expiration, and significantly reduce the purchase of ETFs this year, which may fall to the lowest level since 2012.</p><p>The Norwegian central bank and the Federal Reserve of New Zealand are the two G10 central banks that took the lead in rate hike this year. Both of them have rate hike twice and are likely to continue their rate hike next year; Norway is also the first advanced economy with a post-pandemic rate hike.</p><p>For other regions, the Latin American central bank became the main force of the global rate hike camp during the year; Brazil's central bank, the major central bank with the most and largest rate hike during the year, raised interest rates by 150 basis points to 9.25% at its latest meeting. In stark contrast to Latin American central banks holding the flag of rate hike, the year was calm for major Asian central banks.</p><p>In emerging markets, weighted policy rates in all economies have risen from 4.5% to 5% in recent months, with 10 out of 21 central banks rate hike and three cutting rates (Indonesia,Turkey,and North Macedonia).</p><p>2022 Outlook: The \"water collection\" of major central banks seems a foregone conclusion</p><p>With the last meeting of the world's major central banks in 2021, the market began to have a clear understanding of the attitude of central banks. The major central banks' policy shifts seem to embody their attempt to live with the pandemic. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said: \"Many people have been vaccinated and the booster shot campaign is accelerating. Society has become better at coping with the wave of the pandemic and the restrictions it brings, which has mitigated the impact of the pandemic on the economy.\"</p><p>What's more, as central bankers gained their understanding of widespread inflation, they developed different views on how the outbreak of the new virus could affect the economy. In the early days of the pandemic, the focus was that lockdowns would dampen consumer demand, which loose monetary policy could help boost. Now, officials' concerns turning to pandemic restrictions will impede the supply and shipment of goods, pushing up prices, reinforcing the case for rate hike.</p><p>For now, most central banks are starting to feel uneasy about high inflation, and it seems only a matter of time before monetary stimulus measures are tightened in 2022. Among advanced economies, the weighted policy rate for all countries has edged up to 0.14% in recent months from an all-time low of 0.07%, with six out of 17 central banks raising rates. Pre-pandemic, the developed economy-weighted policy rate was 0.8%, which still has plenty of upside compared.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f18f8dbb732e024659873129711d9\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In emerging markets, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the weighted policy interest rate of emerging markets was 5.5%, and there is still some room for rate hike. The upward trend in policy rates will continue in 2022 unless COVID hampers the economic recovery. In addition, the Federal Reserve's entry into rate hike next year may put some pressure on monetary policy in emerging markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6633279b1ed5cadfed7455edd4fdf3f\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are the \"weather vanes\" of global monetary policy, and their policy orientation will undoubtedly lead the mainstream of global monetary policy next year. Therefore, the market has also paid incomparable attention to these three central banks.</p><p><b>Fed: Ending Taper is a done deal, rate hike is just a matter of speed</b></p><p>The hot economy of the United States is further pushing up its price rises, and in addition to the high energy prices, the higher housing prices and service costs also reflect the certain \"stickiness\" of the price rises in the United States. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE price index gauge, also consistently sits above the 2% target. Therefore, unless the epidemic hits the US economy seriously again next year, ending Taper in March is already a certainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b446630969e35dcc006531adf239f4\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market is more concerned about when the Fed will rate hike and rate hike several times next year. The Fed's latest interest rate dot plot for December shows that all 18 officials at the meeting expect the Fed to rate hike next year, estimated at 25 basis points per rate hike. Among them, only one is expected to be in rate hike once next year, five are expected to be in rate hike twice next year, 10 are expected to be in rate hike three times next year, and two are expected to be in rate hike four times next year. The median estimate is expected to fall above rate hike three times next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5066bbae70662dedaeaa5ed3574f641\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Fed's interest rate dot plot itself has always been known for its volatility, and the current expectation is not equal to the actual action next year. However, according to Fedwatch, the market expects that the Fed may conduct a rate hike as early as March next year, with a probability of 53.8% in rate hike. In addition, the market expects the probability of the Fed's rate hike in the middle of next year to reach 91.21%, of which the probability of rate hike twice is expected to reach 41.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f4751ed9bfd0e7e575d641b45290a86\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea890048b1132c8498020f37d819f64\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The CME group FedWatch tool uses 30-day fed funds futures pricing data to analyze the likelihood of interest rate adjustments at future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Keep interest rates unchanged and QE in another way</b></p><p>At the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said it was \"unlikely to raise interest rates in 2022\". Moreover, judging from the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and officials' speeches, although the European Central Bank will end PEPP in 2022, it will still maintain the flexibility of purchasing bonds on a sufficient scale to meet the demand of economic growth, and the European Central Bank also plans to reinvest the principal of mature bonds.</p><p>At the December meeting, ECB officials remained below 2% for the eurozone's inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024. Inflation risks in the eurozone are indeed lower compared to the United States.</p><p>First, because the euro zone does not distribute government subsidies on a large scale as the United States, there is a gap in residents' income, and consumer spending is certainly not as strong as the United States. Second, the peak of the overall money supply expansion in the euro zone is 10%-15%, while the United States has reached more than 25%. In addition, wage growth in the euro zone remains moderate, and there has yet to be an acceleration in wages like the one seen in the United States. Therefore, supply bottleneck is the main reason for the upward risk of inflation in Europe.</p><p>And the ECB, for its part, must also take into account the significant divisions within the eurozone for which it sets its policies. Any large-scale withdrawal of crisis support threatens to create a debt crisis for some member states, for example, with implications for the sustainability of high debt burdens in economies such as Italy.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that the price increase in the euro zone will continue, and have begun to pay attention to the possibility of the European Central Bank's policy normalization in 2023; Currently, there are investors betting that the ECB could rate hike 15 basis points by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Bank of England: Or rate hike 100 basis points, reaching key rate will trigger QT</b></p><p>Under the sterling overnight index swap, the market now expects that even beneath the pandemic risk posed by the Omicron variant, as the labour market drives inflation, the Bank of England raises the rate hike by 100 basis points (i.e. the key rate from 0.25% to 1.25%) by December 2022, when the key rate will be above the 1% level for the first time since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f17ce49e74ff9aa9c907f21028364ef\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, if the Bank of England raises interest rates to the key level of 0.5% at its meeting in February next year, it could initiate quantitative tightening (QT), in which it will stop reinvesting proceeds from maturing notes, automatically reducing its portfolio size when debt matures. Secondly, a more aggressive move by the Bank of England will mean an aggressive sale of UK Treasury Bond after interest rates reach 1%. Money markets expect interest rates to hit that level in August. Still, traders are speculating about when and how the Bank of England will introduce this monetary policy, given the risk of a resurgence of the pandemic threatening the economic outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56705394c28562ca7d5f6de663c3cca\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>epilogue</p><p>Monetary policy, as the core counter-cyclical adjustment tool to hedge economic fluctuations, is often the most powerful means; At the same time, price stability and economic growth are as \"fish\" and \"bear's paw\" in the short term. In 2021, after flooding and against the backdrop of supply shortages, surging inflation inevitably followed; High inflation may be a medium-to long-term problem. Next, the task of stabilizing prices has been placed on the desks of major policymakers.</p><p>It is time for the market to get out of the \"good night\" of monetary easing in 2022. The hot economy can't last forever. At the end of 2021, major central banks have already kicked off the prelude to tightening policies. Unless the \"black swan\" of COVID hits the economic recovery hard, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. With the withdrawal of loose stimulus policies and the progress of the economic cycle, the growth prospects of major economies may face greater pressure next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global central banks fight inflation in 2021 and are busy \"collecting water\" in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal central banks fight inflation in 2021 and are busy \"collecting water\" in 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 13:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly remain the main tone in 2021, and the supply chain problems brought by it have become the bottleneck of the global economy. At the same time, the explosive growth of demand brought by the economic opening has aggravated the problem of supply exceeding demand, and the soaring commodity prices in the second half of the year have further contributed to the price increase. There is no doubt that inflation has become the central topic of global monetary policy this year. Hot inflation is worrying, and many central banks inevitably have to \"cool down\" prices.</p><p>Inflation becomes a 'hot potato' in 2021</p><p>For the world's major central banks, soaring prices are the \"hot potato\" that can't be avoided in 2021. But the dilemma for the major central banks is that it is not entirely certain to what extent inflation is driven by the recovery in demand after the end of lockdowns, and to what extent it is driven by supply constraints caused by clogged ports and shortages of materials and workers. Higher interest rates will slow demand and do little to ease supply bottlenecks, while demand is an important driver in helping the world out of the pandemic-induced recession. If supply shortages ease as trade returns to normal, policies could end up being too tight, stifling the recovery.</p><p>As a result, for most of the year, many central banks argued that \"inflation is a temporary phenomenon\" due to the speed of economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks; Some central banks have chosen to wait and see what happens, hoping that the pressure of soaring inflation can be eased after the supply chain problem is resolved.</p><p>However, when the short-term stimulus effect of large-scale fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy disappeared, accompanied by the energy crisis, the epidemic caused the imbalance of supply chain and labor shortage, and the shortage of supply made the global inflation increasingly high. Moreover, rising prices are gradually guiding inflation expectations to rise steadily, and major central banks can only begin to tighten their purse pockets to curb an overheated economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b0f4258c71cd305613fa26ae29bbc7\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Central banks tackle inflation</p><p>The following are the monetary policy trends of major global central banks in 2021 compiled by Zhitong Finance APP:</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Gradually Abandon the \"Inflation Temporary Theory\", Taper Goes First, rate hike Expectations Strong</b></p><p>The view that most Fed officials have maintained for most of this year is that the current price increases are transitional and that supply chain bottlenecks and other factors are likely to fade. However, with the \"substantial\" progress in the U.S. economy and employment, and the gradual embedding of high inflation in expectations, it is increasingly difficult for the Fed to adhere to the \"temporary theory\", and then the eagle posture is full.</p><p>In the first half of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift began to be released to the market, but the Federal Reserve repeatedly insisted that it would not shift its monetary policy in advance; In the first half of the year, the Fed's policy tone remained pigeonish, and it generally stood still, optimistic about the economy and downplayed the inflation risk. Since the April meeting, with the increase of COVID-19 vaccination rate, the economic recovery of the United States has further accelerated. In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized the help of vaccination to the epidemic and the economy, and expressed optimism about the economic outlook of the United States. As the economy performed beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve released a turning signal at its June meeting and began preliminary discussions on the Taper plan.</p><p>Entering the second half of the year, the Fed's policy has become more and more hawkish. Zhitong Finance APP has reported that Fed officials made a plan at the meeting on July 27-28 to slow down the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. This is the first time that the Fed has explicitly discussed reducing bond purchases at the meeting after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. In September, officials first discussed the specific path to downsizing; Participants also mentioned the upside risks of inflation, saying that inflation levels will likely last longer than expected. On November 4, the Fed launched its Taper program, which began tapering in November and will end in June 2022; Reduce monthly asset purchases by $15 billion. It is worth noting that the bank still did not abandon the controversial word \"transitional\" for inflation in November.</p><p>But since the FOMC meeting in November, data shows that inflation in the United States is running at its highest rate in more than 30 years. On December 1st, Powell suddenly turned hawk: \"I think now may be a good time to abandon the description of 'temporary'.\" He also stressed that he would remain vigilant in controlling inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3e423a3b1240f9aa8633cdfba7042c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. CPI annual rate</p><p>It is clear that Powell's hawkish speech in early December was in preparation for the December 16th interest rate resolution. At the policy meeting in December, the Federal Reserve accelerated the timetable for ending QE and promised to end the large-scale bond purchase program by March next year, instead of June as originally planned, in order to prepare for an early rate hike.</p><p>The Fed dot plot shows that all commissioners expect the Fed to begin a rate hike in 2022, specifically three rate hike in 2022 and 2023. Commissioners are hawkish on policy moves, firmly leaning towards rate hike. Of the 18 FOMC members, only six expect fewer than three rate hike next year, and none see interest rates remain at their current near-zero levels next year.</p><p>Powell believes the Fed needs to look at inflation as a more pressing risk and has raised its '21 and' 22 inflation outlook. He also said that the Federal Reserve may rate hike before achieving full employment. In November, he said that the U.S. job market may improve enough before the middle of next year, and it can be considered that \"maximum employment\" will be reached. In other words, rate hike is possible by June next year.</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Medium-term inflationary pressure is small, easing policy is still the main tone</b></p><p>Despite high prices in the eurozone this year, the ECB has maintained a dovish stance as long-term inflationary pressures in the eurozone remain weak. The European Central Bank has always been a staunch supporter of \"inflation temporary theory\", and the core of its policy lies in adjusting its flexibility of easing policy to quickly meet the demand of economic growth.</p><p>In the first half of the year, ultra-loose monetary policy remained the main tone of the European Central Bank. Entering the second half of the year, against the background of soaring inflation and strong economic growth, in September, although the European Central Bank decided to keep the scale of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) and the bond purchase speed of the Asset Purchase Program (APP) unchanged; However, it plans to slow down the pace of Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the ECB still insisted at its October meeting that high inflation is still largely considered temporary, but that the current price \"hump\" will be more persistent than previously thought, increasing the risk that wages will begin to adjust and keep price growth high. Both Eagle and Dove agree that next year's rate hike is premature, while the disagreement is over the pace of continuing stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.</p><p>On December 16th, compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which announced the interest rate decision on the same day, the position of the European Central Bank was very \"dovish\". The central bank seemed to have just changed the way to continue QE, hoping to guide the euro zone economies to steadily tide over the difficulties of economic growth. The ECB said the emergency purchase programme (PEPP) adopted due to the Covid pandemic will be scaled back next quarter and is expected to end in March 2022, but it is possible to resume the PEPP programme at any time. However, monetary policy in quantitative easing has not come to an end. European policymakers plan to increase the conventional bond purchase program (APP) to 40 billion euros a month from the second quarter of next year, then shrink to 30 billion euros in the next three months, and finally return to the normalized scale of 20 billion euros in October.</p><p>In addition, there were officials signaling rate hike at the end of December. On December 22nd, Robert Holzmann, member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and president of the Austrian Central Bank, said, \"2022 will decide whether to suspend bond purchases in a data-driven way. In extreme cases, it is possible that a rate hike will be held at the end of next year or early 2023, roughly the same time as the third rate hike in the United States.\"</p><p><b>Bank of England: The unpredictable 'unreliable boyfriend', the first major central bank in rate hike</b></p><p>For most of the time this year, the Bank of England mainly focused on easing policies to support economic recovery, and it also insisted that inflation would be temporary; However, as the situation developed, the Bank of England became the first major central bank in rate hike in response to increasingly severe inflationary pressures, but it still couldn't handle hot prices.</p><p>What sets the Bank of England apart from other central banks is the vagaries of its policymakers, often catching markets off guard, which became a hallmark of the Bank of England. Bailey, the governor of the bank, was called \"Unreliable Boyfriend No.2\" by reporters, and Carney, the former governor, was also nicknamed \"Unreliable Boyfriend\". This was mainly because the communication between the Bank of England and the market was too poor, and it seemed that the policymakers of the Bank of England always had different words and deeds, and repeatedly jumped in the position of eagle pigeon.</p><p>On September 23rd, according to the interest rate decision, Bank of England officials unanimously voted to keep the main interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged; Its core expectation is that current global cost pressures will prove temporary.</p><p>But in August, UK inflation rose 3.2pc year-on-year, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, and significantly exceeded the bank's 2pc target. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, analysts expect it to be a short respite for consumers. UK CPI rose 4.2% in October; Some Bank of England policymakers, such as Governor Bailey and prominent hawk Micheal Saunders, have hinted at support for an immediate rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65d10eae0fb3746795c8c3604040c12\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>UK CPI annual rate</p><p>But on November 4, the Bank of England once again kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchases unchanged, bucking expectations from many investors that the Bank of England would be the first major central bank to rate hike after the pandemic. Many investors slammed the bank for not being as rate hike as expected and for being too poorly communicated with the market.</p><p>UK inflation hit a 10-year high in November, with CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Despite high prices, thanks to the situation in November, there are still a large chunk of investors betting that the Bank of England will not rate hike.</p><p>However, on December 16th, the Bank of England couldn't bear the inflationary pressure after all, and raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, which surprised the market. This was the first time that the bank raised the benchmark interest rate since the COVID-19 epidemic. The Bank of England has thus become the first central bank to rate hike among the world's three largest central banks.</p><p><b>Other central banks: rate hike suppresses inflation into the mainstream</b></p><p>As economies gradually recover from last year's recession, inflation seems to have exceeded policymakers' expectations, and the positions of major central banks have turned. Most central banks have even taken aggressive steps to start withdrawing monetary stimulus measures to avoid the unanchor of underlying inflation expectations.</p><p>Although the Bank of Japan still maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy, it will partially withdraw from the corporate financing policy launched in response to the COVID-19 epidemic after its expiration, and significantly reduce the purchase of ETFs this year, which may fall to the lowest level since 2012.</p><p>The Norwegian central bank and the Federal Reserve of New Zealand are the two G10 central banks that took the lead in rate hike this year. Both of them have rate hike twice and are likely to continue their rate hike next year; Norway is also the first advanced economy with a post-pandemic rate hike.</p><p>For other regions, the Latin American central bank became the main force of the global rate hike camp during the year; Brazil's central bank, the major central bank with the most and largest rate hike during the year, raised interest rates by 150 basis points to 9.25% at its latest meeting. In stark contrast to Latin American central banks holding the flag of rate hike, the year was calm for major Asian central banks.</p><p>In emerging markets, weighted policy rates in all economies have risen from 4.5% to 5% in recent months, with 10 out of 21 central banks rate hike and three cutting rates (Indonesia,Turkey,and North Macedonia).</p><p>2022 Outlook: The \"water collection\" of major central banks seems a foregone conclusion</p><p>With the last meeting of the world's major central banks in 2021, the market began to have a clear understanding of the attitude of central banks. The major central banks' policy shifts seem to embody their attempt to live with the pandemic. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said: \"Many people have been vaccinated and the booster shot campaign is accelerating. Society has become better at coping with the wave of the pandemic and the restrictions it brings, which has mitigated the impact of the pandemic on the economy.\"</p><p>What's more, as central bankers gained their understanding of widespread inflation, they developed different views on how the outbreak of the new virus could affect the economy. In the early days of the pandemic, the focus was that lockdowns would dampen consumer demand, which loose monetary policy could help boost. Now, officials' concerns turning to pandemic restrictions will impede the supply and shipment of goods, pushing up prices, reinforcing the case for rate hike.</p><p>For now, most central banks are starting to feel uneasy about high inflation, and it seems only a matter of time before monetary stimulus measures are tightened in 2022. Among advanced economies, the weighted policy rate for all countries has edged up to 0.14% in recent months from an all-time low of 0.07%, with six out of 17 central banks raising rates. Pre-pandemic, the developed economy-weighted policy rate was 0.8%, which still has plenty of upside compared.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f18f8dbb732e024659873129711d9\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In emerging markets, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the weighted policy interest rate of emerging markets was 5.5%, and there is still some room for rate hike. The upward trend in policy rates will continue in 2022 unless COVID hampers the economic recovery. In addition, the Federal Reserve's entry into rate hike next year may put some pressure on monetary policy in emerging markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6633279b1ed5cadfed7455edd4fdf3f\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are the \"weather vanes\" of global monetary policy, and their policy orientation will undoubtedly lead the mainstream of global monetary policy next year. Therefore, the market has also paid incomparable attention to these three central banks.</p><p><b>Fed: Ending Taper is a done deal, rate hike is just a matter of speed</b></p><p>The hot economy of the United States is further pushing up its price rises, and in addition to the high energy prices, the higher housing prices and service costs also reflect the certain \"stickiness\" of the price rises in the United States. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE price index gauge, also consistently sits above the 2% target. Therefore, unless the epidemic hits the US economy seriously again next year, ending Taper in March is already a certainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b446630969e35dcc006531adf239f4\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market is more concerned about when the Fed will rate hike and rate hike several times next year. The Fed's latest interest rate dot plot for December shows that all 18 officials at the meeting expect the Fed to rate hike next year, estimated at 25 basis points per rate hike. Among them, only one is expected to be in rate hike once next year, five are expected to be in rate hike twice next year, 10 are expected to be in rate hike three times next year, and two are expected to be in rate hike four times next year. The median estimate is expected to fall above rate hike three times next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5066bbae70662dedaeaa5ed3574f641\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Fed's interest rate dot plot itself has always been known for its volatility, and the current expectation is not equal to the actual action next year. However, according to Fedwatch, the market expects that the Fed may conduct a rate hike as early as March next year, with a probability of 53.8% in rate hike. In addition, the market expects the probability of the Fed's rate hike in the middle of next year to reach 91.21%, of which the probability of rate hike twice is expected to reach 41.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f4751ed9bfd0e7e575d641b45290a86\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea890048b1132c8498020f37d819f64\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The CME group FedWatch tool uses 30-day fed funds futures pricing data to analyze the likelihood of interest rate adjustments at future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Keep interest rates unchanged and QE in another way</b></p><p>At the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said it was \"unlikely to raise interest rates in 2022\". Moreover, judging from the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and officials' speeches, although the European Central Bank will end PEPP in 2022, it will still maintain the flexibility of purchasing bonds on a sufficient scale to meet the demand of economic growth, and the European Central Bank also plans to reinvest the principal of mature bonds.</p><p>At the December meeting, ECB officials remained below 2% for the eurozone's inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024. Inflation risks in the eurozone are indeed lower compared to the United States.</p><p>First, because the euro zone does not distribute government subsidies on a large scale as the United States, there is a gap in residents' income, and consumer spending is certainly not as strong as the United States. Second, the peak of the overall money supply expansion in the euro zone is 10%-15%, while the United States has reached more than 25%. In addition, wage growth in the euro zone remains moderate, and there has yet to be an acceleration in wages like the one seen in the United States. Therefore, supply bottleneck is the main reason for the upward risk of inflation in Europe.</p><p>And the ECB, for its part, must also take into account the significant divisions within the eurozone for which it sets its policies. Any large-scale withdrawal of crisis support threatens to create a debt crisis for some member states, for example, with implications for the sustainability of high debt burdens in economies such as Italy.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that the price increase in the euro zone will continue, and have begun to pay attention to the possibility of the European Central Bank's policy normalization in 2023; Currently, there are investors betting that the ECB could rate hike 15 basis points by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Bank of England: Or rate hike 100 basis points, reaching key rate will trigger QT</b></p><p>Under the sterling overnight index swap, the market now expects that even beneath the pandemic risk posed by the Omicron variant, as the labour market drives inflation, the Bank of England raises the rate hike by 100 basis points (i.e. the key rate from 0.25% to 1.25%) by December 2022, when the key rate will be above the 1% level for the first time since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f17ce49e74ff9aa9c907f21028364ef\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, if the Bank of England raises interest rates to the key level of 0.5% at its meeting in February next year, it could initiate quantitative tightening (QT), in which it will stop reinvesting proceeds from maturing notes, automatically reducing its portfolio size when debt matures. Secondly, a more aggressive move by the Bank of England will mean an aggressive sale of UK Treasury Bond after interest rates reach 1%. Money markets expect interest rates to hit that level in August. Still, traders are speculating about when and how the Bank of England will introduce this monetary policy, given the risk of a resurgence of the pandemic threatening the economic outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56705394c28562ca7d5f6de663c3cca\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>epilogue</p><p>Monetary policy, as the core counter-cyclical adjustment tool to hedge economic fluctuations, is often the most powerful means; At the same time, price stability and economic growth are as \"fish\" and \"bear's paw\" in the short term. In 2021, after flooding and against the backdrop of supply shortages, surging inflation inevitably followed; High inflation may be a medium-to long-term problem. Next, the task of stabilizing prices has been placed on the desks of major policymakers.</p><p>It is time for the market to get out of the \"good night\" of monetary easing in 2022. The hot economy can't last forever. At the end of 2021, major central banks have already kicked off the prelude to tightening policies. Unless the \"black swan\" of COVID hits the economic recovery hard, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. With the withdrawal of loose stimulus policies and the progress of the economic cycle, the growth prospects of major economies may face greater pressure next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/631838.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78832e6d293703c403865ad10f135ee6","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","FOMC":"FOMO 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Corporation","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4539":"次新股","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/631838.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2195613462","content_text":"新冠疫情无疑仍是2021年的主基调，带来的供应链问题成为全球经济的瓶颈，同时经济开放带来需求的爆发式增长加剧了供不应求的问题，下半年大宗商品价格的飙升进一步助涨了物价。毫无疑问地，通胀成为了今年全球货币政策的核心话题。火热的通胀令人心忧，众多央行不可避免地要给物价“降温”。2021年通胀成“烫手山芋”对于全球各大央行来说，物价飙升是2021年无法回避的“烫手山芋”。但各大央行的困境在于，不能完全确定通胀在多大程度上是由封锁结束后需求的复苏推动的，又在多大程度上是由港口堵塞、材料和工人短缺造成的供应紧张导致的。提高利率将使需求放缓，对缓解供应瓶颈作用不大，而需求却是帮助世界摆脱疫情导致的经济衰退的重要推动力。如果供应短缺随着贸易恢复正常而缓解，政策最终可能会过于紧缩，从而扼杀经济复苏。因此，今年大多数时间，许多央行认为，由于经济复苏的速度和供应链瓶颈，“通胀是一个暂时现象”;一些央行选择静观其变，以期供应链问题解决后，通胀飙升压力能得到缓解。但当大规模财政刺激和宽松货币政策的短期刺激效应消失之后，伴随着能源危机，疫情致使供应链失衡和劳动力短缺，供不应求让全球通胀高企愈演愈烈。而且，上升的物价正在逐步引导通胀预期稳步上升，各大央行只能纷纷开始收紧钱袋抑制过热的经济。央行应对通胀以下是智通财经APP整理的2021年全球主要央行货币政策动向：美联储：逐渐放弃“通胀暂时论”，Taper先行，加息预期强烈今年大部分时间，大多数美联储官员一直坚持的观点是，目前的价格上涨是过渡性的，供应链瓶颈和其他因素可能会消退。但随着美国经济和就业取得“实质性”进展，而且通胀高企逐步嵌入预期也让美联储越来越难以坚持“暂时论”，进而鹰姿尽显。上半年，美联储货币政策转向的压力就开始向市场释放，但美联储一再坚持不会提前进行货币政策的转向;上半年美联储政策基调仍偏鸽，总体按兵不动，对经济较乐观，并淡化通胀风险。自4月会议以后，随着新冠疫苗接种率的提升，美国经济修复进一步提速，美联储在声明中强调了疫苗接种对疫情和经济的帮助，并对美国经济前景表示乐观。由于经济表现超预期，美联储于6月会议释放转向信号，开始初步讨论Taper计划。进入下半年，美联储政策转鹰气息越来越浓。智通财经APP曾报道，美联储官员在7月27-28日的会议上制定了可能在年底前放缓每月购债步伐的计划，这是新冠疫情爆发后美联储首次在会议上明确讨论缩减购债。9月份，官员们首次讨论了减码的具体路径;与会者还提到了通胀的上行风险，称通胀水平居于高位的时间将可能持续得比预期久。11月4日，美联储启动了Taper计划，于11月开始缩减，并将于2022年6月结束;将每月资产购买规模减少150亿美元。值得注意的是，该行于11月仍然没有对通胀问题放弃使用“过渡性”这个有争议的词。但是自11月的FOMC会议以来，数据显示美国的通胀率以30多年来的最高速度运行。12月1日，鲍威尔突然转鹰：“我认为现在可能是一个好时机，放弃‘暂时性’这一描述。”他同时强调，将在控制通胀方面保持警惕。美国CPI年率很显然，鲍威尔12月初的鹰派发言是为12月16日的利率决议做准备。12月政策会议上，美联储加快了结束QE的时间表，并承诺在明年3月前结束大规模的债券购买计划，而不是原计划的6月，以便为提早加息作准备。美联储点阵图显示，所有委员均预计美联储将在2022年开始加息，具体为2022年和2023年分别加息三次。委员们对政策举措持鹰派态度，坚定地倾向于加息。在18名FOMC委员中，只有6名预计明年加息不到3次，且没有任何委员看到明年利率保持当前近零水平。鲍威尔认为美联储需要将通胀视为更紧迫的风险，并上调了21年和22年的通胀前景。他还称美联储有可能在实现充分就业之前加息，而11月时他曾表示，美国就业市场可能会在明年年中之前就获得足够的改善，可以认为将达成“最大就业”。换言之，明年6月之前加息是可能的。欧洲央行：中期通胀压力小，宽松政策仍为主基调尽管今年欧元区物价高企，但欧洲央行仍保持鸽派立场，因为欧元区长期通胀压力依然疲弱。欧洲央行一直以来也是“通胀暂时论”的坚定支持者，其政策核心在于，调整其宽松政策灵活性以迅速满足经济增长需求。上半年，超宽松货币政策仍是欧洲央行的主基调。进入下半年，在通胀飙升和经济强劲增长的背景下，9月份，欧洲央行虽然决定维持紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)规模和资产购买计划(APP)的购债速度不变;但计划放缓第四季度的紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)购债速度。同样地，欧洲央行10月会议上仍坚持高通胀在很大程度上仍被认为是暂时的，但目前的价格“驼峰”将比以前认为的更持久，增加了工资开始调整并使价格增长保持在高位的风险。鹰鸽双方都认为明年加息为时尚早，而分歧在于以购买债券的形式继续实施刺激措施的速度。12月16日，相比于同一天公布利率决议的美联储和英国央行，欧洲央行的立场非常“鸽派”，该央行似乎只是换了个方式继续QE，希望引导欧元区经济体安稳度过经济增长难关。欧洲央行表示，因新冠疫情而采取的紧急购买计划(PEPP)下季度将被缩减，并预计将于2022年3月结束，但随时有可能恢复PEPP计划。不过，量化宽松货币政策并未就此划上句号，欧洲政策制定者计划从明年第二季度开始，常规债券购买计划(APP)将增至每月400亿欧元，随后在接下来三个月里缩减至300亿欧元，最后在10月恢复至200亿欧元的常态化规模。此外，12月底有官员发出加息信号。12月22日，欧洲央行管委会成员、奥地利央行行长霍尔茨曼(Robert Holzmann)称，“2022年将以数据驱动的方式决定是否暂停购债。在极端情况下，有可能将在明年年底或2023年初进行加息，与美国第三次加息的时间大致相同。”英国央行：变幻莫测的“不靠谱男友”，首家加息主要央行今年英国央行大部分时间还是以支持经济复苏的宽松政策为主，其也坚持认为通胀将是暂时的;但随着形势的发展，英国央行为应对日益严重的通胀压力，还是扛不住火热的物价而成为首个加息的主要央行。而使英国央行区别于其他央行的是其政策制定者的变幻莫测，常常令市场措手不及，这成为英国央行的一个标志。该行行长贝利被记者称为“不靠谱男友二号”，前行长卡尼也曾被戏称为“不靠谱男友”，这主要还是因为英国央行跟市场的沟通太差劲，显得英国央行政策制定者总是言行不一，在鹰鸽立场中反复横跳。9月23日，据利率决议，英国央行官员一致投票决定将主要利率与购债规模不变;其核心预期是，目前的全球成本压力将被证明是暂时的。但在8月份，英国通胀率同比增长3.2%，创自1997年有记录以来的最大增幅，大大超过了该行2%的目标。虽然在9月份，英国通胀意外放缓，但分析师预计这对消费者而言只是一次短暂的喘息。英国10月份CPI涨幅达到4.2%;一些英国央行决策者，如行长贝利和著名鹰派人士迈克尔•桑德斯已暗示支持立即加息。英国CPI年率但11月4日，英国央行再次维持基准利率和购债规模不变，与许多投资者认为英国央行将成为疫情爆发后第一家加息的主要央行的预期背道而驰。许多投资者抨击该行没有如预期般加息，与市场沟通太差。英国11月通胀率创下10年来新高，CPI同比上涨5.1%，远高于英国央行2%的目标值。尽管物价高企，得益于11月的情况，仍有大部分投资者押注英国央行不会加息。但是12月16日，英国央行终究还是扛不住通胀压力，而将基准利率由0.1%上调至0.25%，令市场大感意外，这是该行自新冠疫情以来首次上调基准利率。英国央行也因此成为了全球三大央行中首家加息的央行。其他央行：加息抑通胀成主流随着各国经济从去年的衰退中逐渐复苏，通胀情况似乎超出了决策者的预期，各大央行的立场纷纷转向;大部分央行甚至已经采取了积极措施，开始撤出货币刺激措施，以避免潜在的通胀预期脱锚。日本央行虽然仍维持超宽松货币政策，但为应对新冠疫情而推出的企业融资政策到期后将部分退出，且大幅缩减今年ETF购买量，或将降至2012年以来最低水平。挪威央行和新西兰联储是年内率先加息的两家G10央行，都已加息两次，明年很可能继续加息;挪威也是疫情后首个加息的发达经济体。对于其他地区而言，拉美央行成为了年内全球加息阵营的主力军;巴西央行是年内加息次数最多、幅度也最大的主要央行，在最近一次会议上把利率上调150个基点至9.25%。与拉美国家央行高举加息旗帜形成鲜明对比的，则是主要亚洲央行年内的风平浪静。在新兴市场，所有经济体的加权政策利率在最近几个月从4.5%上升到5%，21家央行中有10家加息，3家降息(印度尼西亚、土耳其和北马其顿)。2022年展望：各大央行“收水”似成定局随着世界上各大央行在2021年里的最后一次会议结束，市场对于央行的态度开始有了清晰的认识。各大央行政策转向似乎体现了他们试图与疫情共存。欧洲央行行长拉加德表示:“许多人已经接种了疫苗，加强针运动也在加速。社会已变得更善于应对疫情浪潮及其带来的限制，这减轻了疫情对经济的影响。”更重要的是，随着央行官员对大范围通货膨胀了解的加深，他们对新病毒的爆发如何影响经济产生了不同的看法。在疫情初期，人们关注的焦点是封锁会抑制消费需求，而宽松的货币政策可能有助于提振消费需求。 现在，官员们的担心转为防疫限制会阻碍商品的供应和运输，从而推高价格，这也强化了加息的理由。目前，大部分央行开始对高通胀感到不安，2022年收紧货币刺激措施似乎只是时间问题。在发达经济体中，所有国家的加权政策利率在最近几个月从0.07%的历史低点小幅上升至0.14%，17家央行中有6家上调了利率。在疫情之前，发达经济加权政策利率为0.8%，相比之下仍有很大的上升空间。而在新兴市场中，新冠疫情之前，新兴市场加权政策利率为5.5%，仍有一定的加息空间。除非新冠疫情阻碍经济复苏，否则政策利率上升的趋势将在2022年继续下去。此外，美联储于明年加入加息的行列可能会给新兴市场的货币政策带来一定的压力。其中，美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行作为全球货币政策的“风向标”，其政策取向无疑将引领明年全球货币政策的主流。因此，市场对这三大央行也是给予了无比多的关注。美联储：结束Taper已板上钉钉，加息只是快慢问题美国火热的经济正在进一步推高其物价上涨，而且除了能源价格高涨之外，住房价格和服务业成本等走高也反映了美国物价上升具有一定“粘性”。美联储最青睐的通胀指标——核心PCE物价指数指标也持续位于2%目标之上。因此，除非明年疫情再度严重冲击美国经济，不然3月份结束Taper已经是板上钉钉的事情了。市场更加关注的是美联储明年何时加息、加息几次。美联储12月的最新利率点阵图显示，以一次加息25个基点估算，所有与会的18位官员均预计美联储明年将加息。其中，只有一位预计明年加息1次，5位预计明年加息2次，10位预计明年加息3次，2位预计明年加息4次，中值预期落在了明年加息3次之上。以史为鉴，美联储利率点阵图本身就向来以多变而著称，当前的预期并不等于明年的实际行动。不过，根据“联储观察(Fedwatch)”，市场预计美联储可能最早会在明年3月份进行加息，加息一次概率达到53.8%。除此之外，市场预计美联储于明年中旬加息的概率达到91.21%，其中预计加息两次的概率达到41.2%。芝商所FedWatch工具利用30天联邦基金期货定价资料，用以分析联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)未来会议调整利率的可能性。欧洲央行：维持利率不变，换个方式QE在12月的会议上，欧央行行长拉加德称“不太可能在2022年加息”。而且从欧洲央行利率决议和官员发言来看，欧洲央行2022年虽然将结束PEPP，但仍然将保持足够规模购债的灵活性以满足经济增长需求，而且欧洲央行也还计划到期债券的本金再投资。12月会议上，欧洲央行官员对欧元区2023年和2024年的通胀预测仍低于2%。相对美国来说，欧元区的通胀风险确实更低。一是因为欧元区没有像美国那样大规模地发放政府补助，居民收入存在缺口，消费支出肯定不及美国那么强劲。二是因为欧元区整体货币供给扩张的高峰在10%-15%，而美国已经高达25%以上。另外，欧元区的工资增速仍然温和，尚未出现像美国那样的工资加速上涨的情况。因而供给瓶颈是构成欧洲通胀上行风险的主要原因。而且就欧洲央行而言，它还必须考虑到它为之制定政策的欧元区内部存在的重大分歧。任何大规模撤出危机支持的举措，有可能给一些成员国带来债务危机，比如，对意大利等经济体高债务负担的可持续性造成影响。不过，有一些市场参与者担心欧元区物价上涨将持续，已经开始关注欧洲央行2023年政策正常化的可能性;目前，有投资者押注欧洲央行可能在2022年底加息15个基点。英国央行：或加息100个基点，达到关键利率将触发QT根据英镑隔夜指数掉期，市场目前预计，即使在Omicron变种带来的疫情风险之下，由于劳动力市场推动通胀，英国央行到2022年12月将加息100个基点(即关键利率由0.25%升至1.25%)，届时关键利率将自2009年以来首次位于1%水平以上。其次，如果英国央行在明年2月的会议上将利率升至0.5%的关键水平，就可能启动量化紧缩(QT)，即它将停止将到期票据收益进行再投资，从而在债务到期时自动减少其投资组合规模。其次，英国央行的更激进举措将意味着，在利率达到1%之后，可能会积极出售英国国债。货币市场预计，利率将在8月份触及这一水平。不过，鉴于疫情复发威胁到经济前景的风险，交易员们正在揣测英国央行何时以及如何引入这一货币政策。结语货币政策作为对冲经济波动的最核心逆周期调节工具，往往是最有力的手段;与此同时，物价稳定与经济增长在短期内就如“鱼”与“熊掌”一般不可兼得。2021年，在大水漫灌之后，又是在供应短缺的背景下，通胀飙升不可避免地随之而来;通胀高企或是中长期问题。接下来，稳定物价任务已经被摆到各大政策制定者的办公桌上。2022年市场是时候走出货币宽松的“良夜”，炙手可热的经济不可能永远持续，2021年底各大央行已经拉开了收紧政策的序幕。除非新冠疫情这只“黑天鹅”严重打击经济复苏，否则政策利率上升的趋势将在2022年继续下去。随着宽松刺激政策的退出以及经济周期进程，明年各大经济体增长前景可能将面临较大压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"FOMC":1,"IVV":0.6,"APP":1,"ZTmain":0.9,"DXD":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009339494,"gmtCreate":1640487001356,"gmtModify":1676533522974,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009339494","repostId":"1181661636","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181661636","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640329680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1181661636?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-24 15:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! U.S. stocks may face two major risks in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181661636","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"1990年至2020年，美股在四季度共经历了6次回调（表1）。而2021年11月以来，在疫情反复、通胀预期升温的背景下，美股恐再次陷入调整的“怪圈”。本文重点复盘了与2021年经济基本面有相似之处的2018年，以史为鉴，展望2022年美股可能面临的风险。2022年在美国货币政策紧缩转向的市场预期下，警惕来自高估值、长久期成长股方面的市场波动。","content":"<p><b>From 1990 to 2020, U.S. stocks experienced six corrections in the fourth quarter (Table 1). Since November 2021, under the background of repeated epidemics and rising inflation expectations, U.S. stocks may once again fall into a \"strange circle\" of adjustment. This article focuses on review 2018, which has similarities with the economic fundamentals of 2021, and takes history as a mirror to look ahead to the risks that U.S. stocks may face in 2022.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d258ab5cd33d118fefb1aa1ee2c897a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>An analysis of the performance of various industries in the six US stock corrections from 1990 to 2018 shows that the performance of the defensive sector has been verified, and the medical sector has excess returns relative to the S&P 500 index in each correction. In addition, public utilities and mandatory consumption have also achieved good results, and five of the six market corrections have gained excess returns.</p><p><b>Judging from the causes of the correction of U.S. stocks in the fourth quarter, except for the policy side of the Fed's policy mistakes in 2018, other causes are all events (such as the European debt crisis, Lehman incident, etc.).</b></p><p>There are similarities between the economic fundamentals of 2018 and the situation today (November-December 2021): the job market is recovering for the better but inflation is overshooting. In 2018, in order to cope with inflation, the Federal Reserve had four rate hike, and one rate hike in the first and second quarters respectively, which did not have a significant impact on the stock market. However, in the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve had two consecutive rate hike, which made the interest rate reach the highest level since 2008. The fast rate hike caused the S&P 500 index to fall by nearly 20% in the fourth quarter (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c23e4d0395f4802aea9624fc484a378\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the end of November this year, US stocks have experienced two waves of decline (Figure 2):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc52976d2afa81b30f6ae117961c6ae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The first wave was caused by the epidemic.</b>On November 24, South Africa reported to WHO the highly contagious variant strain Omicron; On November 26th, WHO announced that Omicron was listed as a \"variant of concern\". On that day, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.3%, breaking the upward trend since October.</p><p><b>The second wave is caused by the expected warming of the epidemic and rate hike.</b>In December, Powell and other Fed officials successively acknowledged the non-temporary nature of inflation (Table 2), and the dot plot of the interest rate meeting turned hawkish. In addition, Omicron replaced Delta as the mainstream new coronavirus strain in the United States, causing a surge in the number of new cases (Figure 3-Figure 4). Under the superposition of the two, U.S. stocks fell continuously from December 16th to 18th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7ceccab81143af9eb11a4f633fd961\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e68b488884d9b9c8ed765f69d27f8b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69bfee8850598eebeba94ad399880e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sectors, defensive healthcare and utilities outperformed cyclical sectors in two waves of declines in the broader market since November 2021, while mandatory consumption rebounded strongly in the second wave of declines (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d947f2aef1170c69c66a1b303344d33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking forward to 2022, U.S. stocks will still face two major risks, namely, repeated epidemics and excessive rate hike.</b>However, as shown in Figure 6, the impact of several waves of epidemic on US stocks is marginally decreasing. With the increase of the sensitivity of policy response to the epidemic,<b>We expect that the impact of the repeated epidemic on U.S. stocks in the future will be limited, but we need to be alert to the risk of correction brought by inflation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636ba71a6892bd9f8533f91d2b33f33a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The suppression of growth stocks by high inflation in the United States has emerged.</b>Since the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has adopted extremely loose monetary policy to support the economy. However, since June 2021, inflation has continued to hit a new high, forcing the Federal Reserve to announce accelerated taper at the December interest rate meeting, and the dot plot has made a hawkish turn on the number and pace of interest rate hikes in 2022. When interest rate expectations and real interest rates rise, the increase in discount rate leads to the suppression of high-valuation, long-term growth stocks. As shown in Figure 7, U.S. growth stocks underperformed value stocks from Nov. 1 to Dec. 20.<b>In 2022, under the market expectation of a shift in U.S. monetary policy tightening, be wary of market volatility from high-valuation, long-term growth stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5176913de61559336af90fa6f90f8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>U.S. inflation soars out of control as pandemic spreads out of control</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! U.S. stocks may face two major risks in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! U.S. stocks may face two major risks in 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 15:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>From 1990 to 2020, U.S. stocks experienced six corrections in the fourth quarter (Table 1). Since November 2021, under the background of repeated epidemics and rising inflation expectations, U.S. stocks may once again fall into a \"strange circle\" of adjustment. This article focuses on review 2018, which has similarities with the economic fundamentals of 2021, and takes history as a mirror to look ahead to the risks that U.S. stocks may face in 2022.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d258ab5cd33d118fefb1aa1ee2c897a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>An analysis of the performance of various industries in the six US stock corrections from 1990 to 2018 shows that the performance of the defensive sector has been verified, and the medical sector has excess returns relative to the S&P 500 index in each correction. In addition, public utilities and mandatory consumption have also achieved good results, and five of the six market corrections have gained excess returns.</p><p><b>Judging from the causes of the correction of U.S. stocks in the fourth quarter, except for the policy side of the Fed's policy mistakes in 2018, other causes are all events (such as the European debt crisis, Lehman incident, etc.).</b></p><p>There are similarities between the economic fundamentals of 2018 and the situation today (November-December 2021): the job market is recovering for the better but inflation is overshooting. In 2018, in order to cope with inflation, the Federal Reserve had four rate hike, and one rate hike in the first and second quarters respectively, which did not have a significant impact on the stock market. However, in the fourth quarter, the Federal Reserve had two consecutive rate hike, which made the interest rate reach the highest level since 2008. The fast rate hike caused the S&P 500 index to fall by nearly 20% in the fourth quarter (Figure 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c23e4d0395f4802aea9624fc484a378\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Since the end of November this year, US stocks have experienced two waves of decline (Figure 2):</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc52976d2afa81b30f6ae117961c6ae5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The first wave was caused by the epidemic.</b>On November 24, South Africa reported to WHO the highly contagious variant strain Omicron; On November 26th, WHO announced that Omicron was listed as a \"variant of concern\". On that day, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.3%, breaking the upward trend since October.</p><p><b>The second wave is caused by the expected warming of the epidemic and rate hike.</b>In December, Powell and other Fed officials successively acknowledged the non-temporary nature of inflation (Table 2), and the dot plot of the interest rate meeting turned hawkish. In addition, Omicron replaced Delta as the mainstream new coronavirus strain in the United States, causing a surge in the number of new cases (Figure 3-Figure 4). Under the superposition of the two, U.S. stocks fell continuously from December 16th to 18th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c7ceccab81143af9eb11a4f633fd961\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e68b488884d9b9c8ed765f69d27f8b7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69bfee8850598eebeba94ad399880e5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"654\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sectors, defensive healthcare and utilities outperformed cyclical sectors in two waves of declines in the broader market since November 2021, while mandatory consumption rebounded strongly in the second wave of declines (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d947f2aef1170c69c66a1b303344d33e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Looking forward to 2022, U.S. stocks will still face two major risks, namely, repeated epidemics and excessive rate hike.</b>However, as shown in Figure 6, the impact of several waves of epidemic on US stocks is marginally decreasing. With the increase of the sensitivity of policy response to the epidemic,<b>We expect that the impact of the repeated epidemic on U.S. stocks in the future will be limited, but we need to be alert to the risk of correction brought by inflation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636ba71a6892bd9f8533f91d2b33f33a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The suppression of growth stocks by high inflation in the United States has emerged.</b>Since the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has adopted extremely loose monetary policy to support the economy. However, since June 2021, inflation has continued to hit a new high, forcing the Federal Reserve to announce accelerated taper at the December interest rate meeting, and the dot plot has made a hawkish turn on the number and pace of interest rate hikes in 2022. When interest rate expectations and real interest rates rise, the increase in discount rate leads to the suppression of high-valuation, long-term growth stocks. As shown in Figure 7, U.S. growth stocks underperformed value stocks from Nov. 1 to Dec. 20.<b>In 2022, under the market expectation of a shift in U.S. monetary policy tightening, be wary of market volatility from high-valuation, long-term growth stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5176913de61559336af90fa6f90f8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Risk warning:</b>U.S. inflation soars out of control as pandemic spreads out of control</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/X0mqAu-uDW2IYCqHkNfXhQ\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/X0mqAu-uDW2IYCqHkNfXhQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181661636","content_text":"1990年至2020年，美股在四季度共经历了6次回调（表1）。而2021年11月以来，在疫情反复、通胀预期升温的背景下，美股恐再次陷入调整的“怪圈”。本文重点复盘了与2021年经济基本面有相似之处的2018年，以史为鉴，展望2022年美股可能面临的风险。\n\n对1990年至2018年6次美股回调中各行业表现的分析显示，防御型板块的表现得到了验证，医疗板块在每次的回调中相对于标普500指数都有超额收益。此外，公用事业、必选消费也取得了不错的成绩，在6次市场回调中均有5次收获超额收益。\n从四季度美股回调的起因来看，除了2018年为美联储政策失误的政策面所致，其他起因均为事件面（如欧债危机、雷曼事件等）。\n2018年的经济基本面和如今（2021年11月至12月）的情况有相似之处：就业市场复苏向好但通胀超调。2018年为了应对通胀，美联储共加息4次，一、二季度分别加息一次，未对股市产生显著影响，然而四季度，美联储连续加息2次，使得利率达到2008年以来的最高水平，加息速度过快导致四季度标普500指数跌幅近20%（图1）。\n\n而今年11月末以来，美股经历了两波下跌（图2）：\n\n第一波为疫情所致。11月24日，南非向世卫组织报告高传染性的变种毒株奥密克戎；11月26日，世卫组织宣布将奥密克戎列为“关切变异株”，当日标普500指数跌幅2.3%，打破了10月以来的上行态势。\n第二波为疫情叠加加息预期升温所致。12月鲍威尔等美联储官员陆续表态承认通胀的非暂时性（表2）并且议息会议点阵图鹰派转向，此外奥密克戎取代德尔塔成为美国的主流新冠毒株并造成新增病例数激增（图3-图4）。二者叠加作用下，12月16至18日美股连续下挫。\n\n行业方面，防御型的医疗和公用事业在2021年11月以来大盘的两波下跌中跑赢周期性行业，而在第二波下跌中，必选消费强劲反弹（图5）。\n\n展望2022年，美股仍将面临疫情反复以及过快加息两大主要风险。不过，如图6所示，几波疫情对于美股的冲击是边际递减的，随着政策对于疫情反应灵敏度的提升，我们预计未来疫情反复对于美股的影响有限，但是需要警惕通胀带来的回调风险。\n\n美国高通胀对于成长股的压制已经显现。疫情以来美联储采取极度宽松的货币政策支持经济，然而2021年6月以来，通胀持续创新高，迫使美联储在12月议息会议上宣布加速taper，以及点阵图对于2022年加息次数和节奏指引的鹰派转向。而当利率预期及实际利率上升时，折现率的上调导致高估值、长久期的成长股受到压制。如图7所示， 11月1日至12月20日，美国成长股跑输价值股。2022年在美国货币政策紧缩转向的市场预期下，警惕来自高估值、长久期成长股方面的市场波动。\n\n风险提示：疫情扩散失控，美国通胀飙升失控","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009075242,"gmtCreate":1640401642411,"gmtModify":1676533519649,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009075242","repostId":"1148883897","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9095136982,"gmtCreate":1644849246279,"gmtModify":1676533967550,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095136982","repostId":"1161517578","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161517578","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"图文并茂讲解中金宏观研究报告","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中金宏观","id":"1083231139","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc"},"pubTimestamp":1644796491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161517578?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-14 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161517578","media":"中金宏观","summary":"最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have risen significantly. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March reflected in the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of times rate hike is expected in 2022 has reached 7. However, judging from the stock and bond markets, investors are still hesitant about whether this Federal Reserve tightening is just \"all talk and no action.\"</p><p><b>We believe that the market still underestimates the magnitude of this Federal Reserve tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are accustomed to viewing the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2015-2018) as a reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned after the January policy meeting, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's different this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals, or \"initial conditions,\" at the start of the rate hike.</b>We reviewed the initial conditions of the six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous ones, especially the biggest difference compared to the previous one. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>On economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not very strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2%, while the GDP growth rate before rate hike this time was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999, and 2004, with rate hike’s GDP growth rate exceeding 4% in each case. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, but the current unemployment rate has fallen to a historical low of 4%, which is closer to the rate hike cycle of 1999.</p><p>►<b>Regarding inflation,</b>During the 2015 rate hike, the US core CPI grew by only 2% year-on-year, and the overall CPI grew by only 0.5% year-on-year (due to falling oil prices). Not only was there no risk of rising inflation, but there was even a possibility of deflation. The Federal Reserve chose rate hike more out of “trust” in future inflation. Officials believed that a decline in unemployment would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), thus adopting a “precautionary” rate hike. In contrast, the current growth rate of both overall and core CPI is much higher than in 2015, and even higher than any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has truly faced the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>Regarding the rhythm of rate hike,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Federal Reserve followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After rate hike opened, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much time to wait this time. In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve repeatedly delayed its exit from easing, missing the best opportunity to exit. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to hold more than three rate hike this year, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points cannot even be ruled out. We have charted the path of this rate hike based on current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than to the previous rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of financial markets,</b>The slow pace of the last round of monetary tightening, coupled with relatively reasonable valuations of US stocks, prevented the stock market from undergoing much adjustment, and overall, the situation was \"calm\". Currently, US stocks are relatively highly valued and more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially rising interest rates. It seems that it will not be easy to smoothly navigate the entire rate hike process. In addition, in the low-interest-rate environment following the pandemic, the debt of the U.S. non-financial corporate sector expanded rapidly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it declined slightly in the second quarter, it was still at a historical high. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike begins, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In conclusion, this round of Fed tightening may be aggressive, and simply extrapolating from the previous tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the intensity of the tightening.</b>In our report, \"Inflation Soars, Fed Should Tighten as Soon as Possible,\" we pointed out that the current U.S. economy is like a high-speed car; it is difficult to slow down without braking. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve should take action as soon as possible, such as raising the rate hike by 50 basis points in March and hinting at more rate hike this year. In addition, the Federal Reserve should also initiate a \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective means to achieve this is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect the \"shrinking balance sheet\" to begin in the third quarter, but we cannot rule out the possibility of it being brought forward to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the 10-year US Treasury yield will break through 2.5%, and US stocks still have room for adjustment.</b>After the pandemic subsides, the US economic recovery is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may recover in tandem. If the Federal Reserve maintains a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and takes a firm stance, US Treasury yields may rise further. On the other hand, overly aggressive rate hike may trigger market concerns about a medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and intensified geopolitical shocks may also suppress risk appetite and limit the upside potential of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low-interest-rate environment over the past decade, the valuations of some stocks have expanded significantly, and their stock prices have risen substantially. If there is a liquidity tightening, the risk-free rate will rise, which will have an adverse impact on the valuation of these stocks. Although US stocks have recently experienced a correction, there may still be room for adjustment as the US Treasury yields upward trend has not ended.</p><p><b>Commodities are currently performing better and less affected by austerity measures.</b>First, the Fed's tightening is itself a confirmation of strong economic growth and is beneficial to commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed significantly over the past two years, and a synchronized global rebound in capital expenditure is expected after the pandemic, further increasing demand for goods (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: The Third Step of Global Recovery\"). Of course, the Federal Reserve's tightening will lead to higher interest rates and suppress corporate investment, but this process will have a time lag and may not happen in the first half of this year. In short,<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening may become the main theme in global asset pricing this year, and investors should not underestimate the magnitude of the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macroeconomic Data and Economic Events</p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The U.S. trade balance in December was -$80.7 billion, higher than the expected -$83 billion; Wholesale sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the expected 1.2%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for January was 97.1, lower than the expected 97.5; The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5 was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 61.7, lower than the expected 67.5.</p><p>The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in February was 16.6, higher than the expected 15.2. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%. GDP grew by 1% month-on-month in the three months of December, lower than the expected 1.1%; Industrial output grew by 0.3% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On February 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, stating that inflation risks were rising and hinting that the central bank’s monetary policy would “gradually change”[2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained “open-minded” about central bank digital currencies[3]. On February 10, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech, stating that every Fed interest rate meeting this year could be a rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet[4]. On February 11, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected the Fed to “steadily” rate hike and hoped that the Fed would restore interest rates to pre-pandemic levels “relatively quickly”[5].</p><p><b>This week's focus: macro data and economic events</b></p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The US January PPI month-on-month growth rate and the New York Fed manufacturing index for February will be released on Tuesday. Eurozone fourth-quarter annual GDP growth revision, fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter employment growth, December seasonally adjusted trade balance, February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The U.S. December business inventory month-on-month growth rate, January retail sales month-on-month growth rate, January import price index month-on-month growth rate, January industrial production month-on-month growth rate, and February NAHB housing market index will be released on Wednesday. Eurozone industrial output grew month-on-month in December. The annualized figures for new home starts in the United States in January, the total number of building permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 12 will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Conference Board released its leading indicators for January, showing the month-on-month growth rate and the annualized value of total existing home sales in January. Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account for December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to review and decide on lending ratios and discount rates; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Powell's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, as well as on the nominations of four other Federal Reserve officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. The Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday; The European Central Bank released its economic bulletin. On Friday, 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Evans, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, respectively. Saturday FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an economic outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCICC: The Fed's tightening is coming strongly this time.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1083231139\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c51beafe2e03df6719d058d12c6fcc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金宏观 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-14 07:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, the highest level since 1982. Following the data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have risen significantly. The probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March reflected in the interest rate futures market has exceeded 90%, and the number of times rate hike is expected in 2022 has reached 7. However, judging from the stock and bond markets, investors are still hesitant about whether this Federal Reserve tightening is just \"all talk and no action.\"</p><p><b>We believe that the market still underestimates the magnitude of this Federal Reserve tightening and its potential impact.</b>Investors are accustomed to viewing the previous Federal Reserve tightening cycle (2015-2018) as a reference frame for this tightening, but after comparison, we find that this time is very different from the last. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also mentioned after the January policy meeting, \"This economy is different from the last round of tightening, and our policies will reflect these differences.\"</p><p><b>What's different this time? Perhaps the biggest difference is the economic fundamentals, or \"initial conditions,\" at the start of the rate hike.</b>We reviewed the initial conditions of the six rate hike cycles since 1980, and we found that this one is different from the previous ones, especially the biggest difference compared to the previous one. Specifically:</p><p>►<b>On economic growth and employment,</b>The last round of rate hike began in December 2015, when the US economy was not very strong. The GDP growth rate in the quarter before rate hike was 2.2%, while the GDP growth rate before rate hike this time was as high as 5.5%. From this perspective, this rate hike is more similar to the three rounds of austerity that began in 1988, 1999, and 2004, with rate hike’s GDP growth rate exceeding 4% in each case. In terms of employment, the unemployment rate was 5.1% when the last rate hike began, but the current unemployment rate has fallen to a historical low of 4%, which is closer to the rate hike cycle of 1999.</p><p>►<b>Regarding inflation,</b>During the 2015 rate hike, the US core CPI grew by only 2% year-on-year, and the overall CPI grew by only 0.5% year-on-year (due to falling oil prices). Not only was there no risk of rising inflation, but there was even a possibility of deflation. The Federal Reserve chose rate hike more out of “trust” in future inflation. Officials believed that a decline in unemployment would eventually push up inflation (i.e., the Phillips curve framework), thus adopting a “precautionary” rate hike. In contrast, the current growth rate of both overall and core CPI is much higher than in 2015, and even higher than any rate hike cycle since 1980. It can be said that this is the first time since the 1970s that the Federal Reserve has truly faced the challenge of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3f132ebecec3c0c11f314450cd301b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>Regarding the rhythm of rate hike,</b>In the last round of rate hike, the Federal Reserve followed the principle of \"gradual and predictable\": from Taper to rate hike to shrinking balance sheet, every step was cautious, and each step was two years apart. After rate hike opened, there was even a year between the first rate hike and the second rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve doesn't have much time to wait this time. In the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve repeatedly delayed its exit from easing, missing the best opportunity to exit. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to hold more than three rate hike this year, and the possibility of a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points cannot even be ruled out. We have charted the path of this rate hike based on current market expectations, and the results show that the path is closer to the rate hike cycle before the subprime mortgage crisis than to the previous rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d600abecdf2c801a0caa9881695d73b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448b1dc572cceff7df6ebfd113c84c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"491\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>►<b>In terms of financial markets,</b>The slow pace of the last round of monetary tightening, coupled with relatively reasonable valuations of US stocks, prevented the stock market from undergoing much adjustment, and overall, the situation was \"calm\". Currently, US stocks are relatively highly valued and more sensitive to changes in the external environment, especially rising interest rates. It seems that it will not be easy to smoothly navigate the entire rate hike process. In addition, in the low-interest-rate environment following the pandemic, the debt of the U.S. non-financial corporate sector expanded rapidly, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 76% at the end of 2019 to 85% in the first quarter of 2021. Although it declined slightly in the second quarter, it was still at a historical high. If interest rates rise significantly after the rate hike begins, some companies with poor cash flow performance may face credit risk exposure.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9204b0d7907868e5ce8ba6ded4dddfe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>In conclusion, this round of Fed tightening may be aggressive, and simply extrapolating from the previous tightening cycle may seriously underestimate the intensity of the tightening.</b>In our report, \"Inflation Soars, Fed Should Tighten as Soon as Possible,\" we pointed out that the current U.S. economy is like a high-speed car; it is difficult to slow down without braking. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve should take action as soon as possible, such as raising the rate hike by 50 basis points in March and hinting at more rate hike this year. In addition, the Federal Reserve should also initiate a \"shrinking balance sheet\". The most reliable way to curb inflation is to push up long-term interest rates, and the most effective means to achieve this is \"shrinking balance sheet\". We expect the \"shrinking balance sheet\" to begin in the third quarter, but we cannot rule out the possibility of it being brought forward to the second quarter.</p><p><b>Under the risk scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the 10-year US Treasury yield will break through 2.5%, and US stocks still have room for adjustment.</b>After the pandemic subsides, the US economic recovery is expected to continue to deepen, and supply and demand may recover in tandem. If the Federal Reserve maintains a \"shrinking balance sheet\" in the third quarter and takes a firm stance, US Treasury yields may rise further. On the other hand, overly aggressive rate hike may trigger market concerns about a medium-term economic slowdown or even recession, and intensified geopolitical shocks may also suppress risk appetite and limit the upside potential of long-term interest rates. In the stock market, under the low-interest-rate environment over the past decade, the valuations of some stocks have expanded significantly, and their stock prices have risen substantially. If there is a liquidity tightening, the risk-free rate will rise, which will have an adverse impact on the valuation of these stocks. Although US stocks have recently experienced a correction, there may still be room for adjustment as the US Treasury yields upward trend has not ended.</p><p><b>Commodities are currently performing better and less affected by austerity measures.</b>First, the Fed's tightening is itself a confirmation of strong economic growth and is beneficial to commodities. Secondly, global capital expenditure has slowed significantly over the past two years, and a synchronized global rebound in capital expenditure is expected after the pandemic, further increasing demand for goods (please refer to the report \"Capital Expenditure: The Third Step of Global Recovery\"). Of course, the Federal Reserve's tightening will lead to higher interest rates and suppress corporate investment, but this process will have a time lag and may not happen in the first half of this year. In short,<b>We believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening may become the main theme in global asset pricing this year, and investors should not underestimate the magnitude of the tightening.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8a7ae77515b1d4cd2159c7750c9dff7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Last Week in Review: Macroeconomic Data and Economic Events</p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The U.S. trade balance in December was -$80.7 billion, higher than the expected -$83 billion; Wholesale sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the expected 1.2%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 7.5% year-on-year in January, higher than the expected 7.3%; The seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, higher than the expected 0.5%; The NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for January was 97.1, lower than the expected 97.5; The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 5 was 223,000, lower than the expected 230,000; The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was 61.7, lower than the expected 67.5.</p><p>The Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone in February was 16.6, higher than the expected 15.2. The UK's fourth-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.4%. GDP grew by 1% month-on-month in the three months of December, lower than the expected 1.1%; Industrial output grew by 0.3% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%; Manufacturing output grew by 0.2% month-on-month in December, higher than the expected 0.1%.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>On February 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, stating that inflation risks were rising and hinting that the central bank’s monetary policy would “gradually change”[2]. On February 9, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman addressed community bankers, saying that he remained “open-minded” about central bank digital currencies[3]. On February 10, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester delivered a speech, stating that every Fed interest rate meeting this year could be a rate hike and supporting accelerated reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet[4]. On February 11, 2024 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech in which he expected the Fed to “steadily” rate hike and hoped that the Fed would restore interest rates to pre-pandemic levels “relatively quickly”[5].</p><p><b>This week's focus: macro data and economic events</b></p><p><b>Macroeconomic data:</b>The US January PPI month-on-month growth rate and the New York Fed manufacturing index for February will be released on Tuesday. Eurozone fourth-quarter annual GDP growth revision, fourth-quarter seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter employment growth, December seasonally adjusted trade balance, February ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. The U.S. December business inventory month-on-month growth rate, January retail sales month-on-month growth rate, January import price index month-on-month growth rate, January industrial production month-on-month growth rate, and February NAHB housing market index will be released on Wednesday. Eurozone industrial output grew month-on-month in December. The annualized figures for new home starts in the United States in January, the total number of building permits in January, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 12 will be released on Thursday. On Friday, the Conference Board released its leading indicators for January, showing the month-on-month growth rate and the annualized value of total existing home sales in January. Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account for December.</p><p><b>Economic Events:</b>The Federal Reserve Board of Governors held a closed-door meeting on Tuesday to review and decide on lending ratios and discount rates; The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted on Powell's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, as well as on the nominations of four other Federal Reserve officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participated in the European Parliament's debate on the central bank's 2020 annual report. The Federal Reserve's FOMC released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Thursday; The European Central Bank released its economic bulletin. On Friday, 2022 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, 2022 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Mester, 2023 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Evans, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, respectively. Saturday FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed president<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a>Give a keynote speech at an economic outlook virtual event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b15c4155688a990e179630a5c3515cc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06fe86cfe41a718cab3513c53d36c9d2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22d4b728f2115c1c245ae893b4a6547\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9c24bdccc440090016cf3dfc03ac60\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b0a4a47eb147662e6aa9e9bdc699be4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ce840b59e18d9e35d88bed73ba4cbba\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294725e618332b4d5670edbbc754daa3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b138311a3a83d25317125e5bc2f6f3ed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a888fe85dc3b03a01a683bbd552456a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07333cf21f06bdc99dadde6fb1636a91\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c1f83bb8172bd1722c0155f7c404302\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1043\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161517578","content_text":"美国1月CPI数据再超预期，同比增速达7.5%，创1982年以来最高水平。数据公布后，市场对美联储紧缩的预期显著抬升，利率期货市场反映的3月加息50 bp的概率已超过90%，2022年加息预期次数也已达到7次。但从股市和债市情况来看，投资者仍在犹豫这次美联储紧缩是否仅是“雷声大，雨点小”。我们认为，市场仍然低估了这次美联储紧缩的力度及其潜在影响。投资者习惯于将上一轮美联储紧缩周期（2015—2018年）看作这次紧缩的参照系，但我们对比后发现，这次与上次非常不同。美联储主席鲍威尔在1月议息会议后也提到，“这次的经济与上一轮紧缩时不一样，我们的政策将会反映出这些差别。”这次的不同点在哪呢？最大的不同或许是加息开启时的经济基本面，即“初始条件”。我们梳理了1980年以来6轮加息周期的初始条件，我们发现这次与之前几轮都不一样，尤其与上一轮相比差距最大。具体来看：►经济增长与就业方面，上一轮加息始于2015年12月，当时美国经济并不算强，加息前的一个季度GDP同比增速为2.2%，而这次加息前GDP增速高达5.5%。从这个角度看，这次加息更类似于始于1988、1999、2004年的三轮紧缩，加息前GDP增速均超过4%。就业方面，上一轮开启加息时失业率为5.1%，而当前失业率已降至4%的历史低位，这与1999年加息周期更为接近。►通胀方面，2015年加息时，美国核心CPI同比增速只有2%，整体CPI同比增速仅为0.5%（因为油价下跌），非但没有通胀上行风险，甚至还存在通缩的可能。美联储当时选择加息更多是出于对未来通胀上升的“信任”，官员们相信失业率下降终将推升通胀（即菲利普斯曲线框架），因此采取“预防性”加息。反观当下，无论是整体还是核心CPI增速，都远高于2015年，甚至比1980年以来任何一次加息周期都要更高。可以说，眼下是上世纪七十年代以来，美联储首次真正遭遇高通胀的挑战。► 加息节奏方面，在上一轮加息中，美联储遵循“渐近而可预期”（gradual and predictable）的原则：从Taper到加息，再到缩表，每一步都很谨慎，且每一步之间都相差两年。在加息开启后，第一次加息和第二次加息之间甚至还隔了一年之久。对比之下，这次美联储已经没有那么多时间可以等待。去年下半年，美联储在退出宽松时一拖再拖，错过了最好的退出时机。往前看，今年联储加息的次数大概率多于3次，甚至不排除一次性加息50 bp的可能性。我们根据目前市场的预期描绘了这次加息的路径，结果显示路径更接近于次贷危机前的加息周期，而不是上一轮加息。►金融市场方面，上一轮货币紧缩速度慢，加上美股估值相对合理，使股市并没有过多的调整，整体上“风平浪静”。目前美股估值相对较高，对外部环境变化、尤其是利率上升更敏感，想要平稳度过整个加息过程，似乎并不容易。此外，疫情后的低利率环境下，美国非金融企业部门债务迅速扩张，债务占GDP比例从2019年底的76%升至2021年一季度的85%，虽然二季度小幅回落，但仍处于历史高位。如果加息开启后利率显著上行，部分现金流表现较差的公司或面临信用风险暴露。总而言之，本轮联储紧缩可能来势汹汹，简单以上一轮紧缩周期外推可能会严重低估紧缩的力度。我们在报告《通胀爆表，美联储应尽快紧缩》中指出，当前的美国经济就像一辆高速行驶的汽车，如果不刹车，很难慢下来。往前看，美联储应尽快采取行动，比如在3月加息50 bp，并暗示年内有更多次数的加息。除此之外，美联储还应该开启“缩表”。抑制通胀最可靠办法是推高长端利率，而要达到这一目标，最有效的手段就是“缩表”。我们预计开启“缩表”的时间或在三季度，但也不排除提前到二季度的可能性。风险情形下，不排除10年期美债利率突破2.5%，美股仍有调整空间。疫情消退后，美国经济复苏有望继续深化，供给与需求可能共振复苏，如果美联储在三季度“缩表”且态度比较坚决，美债利率或进一步上行。但另一方面，加息过于激进或引发市场对中期经济放缓甚至衰退的担忧，地缘政治冲击加剧也可能抑制风险偏好，限制长端利率上行空间。股市方面，过去十年低利率环境下，部分股票估值扩张幅度较大，股价涨幅较多。如果流动性收紧，无风险利率抬升，将对这些股票的估值产生不利影响。近期美股虽经历了一波调整，但在美债利率上行未结束的情况下，股市或仍有调整空间。现阶段表现较好、受紧缩影响较小的是大宗商品。首先，美联储紧缩本身就是对经济增长强劲的确认，有利于商品。其次，过去两年全球资本开支明显放缓，疫情过后资本开支有望迎来一次全球性的同步反弹，进一步增加对商品的需求（请参考报告《资本开支：全球复苏的第三步》）。当然，美联储紧缩会导致利率上升，抑制企业投资，但这一过程会有时滞，未必在今年上半年发生。总之，我们认为美联储货币紧缩或成为今年全球资产价格定价的主线，对于紧缩的力度，投资者切不可低估。上周回顾：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：美国12月贸易帐为-807亿美元，高于预期的-830亿美元；12月批发销售月度环比增速0.2%，低于预期的1.2%；1月未季调CPI年度同比增速7.5%，高于预期的7.3%；1月季调后CPI月度环比增速0.6%，高于预期的0.5%；1月NFIB小型企业信心指数97.1，低于预期的97.5；至2月5日当周初请失业金人数为22.3万人，低于预期的23万人；2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.7，低于预期的67.5。欧元区2月Sentix投资者信心指数16.6，高于预期的15.2。英国第四季度GDP年度环比增速修正值为6.5%，高于预期的6.4%；12月三个月GDP月度环比增速1%，低于预期的1.1%；12月工业产出月度环比增速0.3%，高于预期的0.1%；12月制造业产出月度环比增速0.2%，高于预期的0.1%。经济事件：2月7日，欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话，表示通胀风险正在上升，同时暗示央行货币政策将“逐步转变”[2]。2月9日，美联储理事鲍曼向社区银行家发表讲话，称其对央行数字货币保持\"开放心态\"[3]。2月10日，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话，表示今年的每一次美联储议息会议都有可能加息，并支持加速缩减央行资产负债表[4]。2月11日，2024年FOMC票委、里奇蒙德联储主席巴尔金发表讲话，他预计美联储将\"稳步\"加息，并希望美联储\"相对较快\"地将利率恢复到疫情前的水平[5]。本周关注：宏观数据与经济事件宏观数据：周二公布美国1月PPI月度环比增速，2月纽约联储制造业指数；欧元区第四季度GDP年度同比增速修正值，第四季度季调后就业人数季度环比增速，12月季调后贸易帐，2月ZEW经济景气指数。周三公布美国12月商业库存月度环比增速，1月零售销售月度环比增速，1月进口物价指数月度环比增速，1月工业产出月度环比增速，2月NAHB房产市场指数；欧元区12月工业产出月度环比增速。周四公布美国1月新屋开工总数年化值，1月营建许可总数，2月费城联储制造业指数，至2月12日当周初请失业金人数。周五公布美国1月谘商会领先指标月度环比增速，1月成屋销售总数年化值；欧元区12月季调后经常帐。经济事件：周二美联储理事会召开闭门会议，审查并决定放贷比例和贴现率；美国参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔的美联储主席提名进行投票，同时也对其他四名美联储官员的提名进行投票；欧洲央行行长拉加德参加欧洲议会关于该央行2020年年度报告的辩论。周四美联储FOMC公布货币政策会议纪要；欧洲央行公布经济公报。周五2022年FOMC票委、圣路易斯联储主席布拉德，2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯和美联储理事沃勒分别就美国经济和货币政策前景发表讲话。周六FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在一次经济展望虚拟活动上做主旨演讲。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004782061,"gmtCreate":1642691484257,"gmtModify":1676533736308,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004782061","repostId":"1177338378","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094720153,"gmtCreate":1645238748768,"gmtModify":1676534012252,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094720153","repostId":"1154007444","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154007444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645225649,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154007444?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-19 07:07","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154007444","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices all closed lower, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally declined; Prevent a repeat of the \"stock speculation crisis\"! The Federal Reserve has introduced comprehensive trading restrictions; The New York Federal Reserve questions the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points; The development of important chips is lagging behind.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Stock price plunges over 5% >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: The Russia-Ukraine situation alarmed the market, and US stocks declined for the second consecutive week.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the outlook for rate hike continued to dominate market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing lower, the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, and the US stock market recording a second consecutive week of declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 34,079.18 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 4.37%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 3.61%, and Weibo fell 5.16%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Bilibili fell 6.05%, and Bilibili fell 6.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 5.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.32%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It fell 5.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell 6.58%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell 5.40%, while Zhihu fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% this week.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to settle at $91.07 a barrel. WTI contracts for near-month trading fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, after rising 3.1% this week, marking their biggest weekly gain in nine months.</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold prices rose to their highest closing price in eight months on Thursday, driven by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,899.80 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 3.1% this week, their biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%.</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve dovish officials called for substantial policy adjustments, while the New York Fed questioned the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.</b></a></p><p>One of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials called for a \"substantial adjustment\" to monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, becoming the second Fed official to oppose a 50-basis-point rate hike next month. Both Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams have clearly signaled that they will rate hike by 25 basis points at their March 15-16 meetings, but core officials remain open to how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the March meeting.</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed is prepared to rate hike next month and decide to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its next few meetings. “Given that we’ve seen very strong data, I do expect it to be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,” Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The Federal Reserve announced comprehensive trading restrictions to prevent another ethics scandal.</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has formally imposed strict and comprehensive restrictions on the investment and trading behavior of central bank officials to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that embarrassed the Fed last year. These changes establish, in regulatory form, guidelines announced last October to restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks, and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Biden officially signed a temporary funding bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of March 17, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue operating until March 11, temporarily avoiding the predicament of a federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The report states that SpaceX's stock split is 1:10, marking the company's first stock split.</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>SpaceX, CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company, is splitting its common stock at a 1:10 ratio, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The decline in stocks such as Roku and Tesla dealt another blow to Sister Wood's portfolio.</b></a></p><p>Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with many undervalued companies, but another volatile trading day caused some of her big-name stocks to fall even deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with the expiration of $2.2 trillion in options amplifying the decline. Wood's favorite stocks, such as Roku and Tesla, were not spared either, with Roku plummeting 22% and Tesla falling 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna announces the launch of herpes virus and cancer mRNA vaccine research and development</b></a></p><p>Biopharmaceutical company Moderna announced that it has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects that will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate aims to prevent herpes simplex virus type II (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella-zoster virus; mRNA-4359 is used to test the application prospects of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and its autonomous driving technology subsidiary Cruise said on Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. This car, called Cruise Origin, features no manually controlled components such as a steering wheel or brake pedal. General Motors and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to obtain approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel's stock price plummeted by more than 5% due to delays in the development of key chips.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday after CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed on Thursday that the release of its server chip, codenamed Granite Rapids, would be delayed from 2023 to 2024, and that it would have to invest heavily in the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor to use ultraviolet lithography technology, marking Intel's pursuit of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And key technologies required by other top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermès' Q4 financial report fell short of expectations; production capacity limitations impacted performance.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, French luxury goods giant Hermès released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Data shows that the company's total revenue reached €2.38 billion in the fourth quarter, an 11% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 12% against the backdrop of a supply shortage of luxury goods. The main reason for this is that the revenue of the leather goods and equestrian harness division declined by more than 5%. Even though most other businesses delivered growth rates of more than 20%, it could not offset the impact of the decline in revenue of the largest business segment. Hermès CEO Axel Dumas revealed that limited production capacity has limited the company's performance growth. Making a Hermès bag takes 15 hours. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, the growth of production capacity is very limited considering the need for a lot of time for training.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | The Russia-Ukraine Situation Disturbs the Market! US stocks fell for two consecutive weeks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-19 07:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract:</b>The three major indices all closed lower, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally declined; Prevent a repeat of the \"stock speculation crisis\"! The Federal Reserve has introduced comprehensive trading restrictions; The New York Federal Reserve questions the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points; The development of important chips is lagging behind.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>Stock price plunges over 5% >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>Closing: The Russia-Ukraine situation alarmed the market, and US stocks declined for the second consecutive week.</b></p><p>The situation between Russia and Ukraine and the outlook for rate hike continued to dominate market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing lower, the Nasdaq falling more than 1%, and the US stock market recording a second consecutive week of declines. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.68% to 34,079.18 points; The S&P 500 fell 0.72% to 4,348.87 points; The Nasdaq fell 1.23% to 13,548.07 points.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally closed lower.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">Zhihu</a>It fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Down more than 6%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks collectively declined.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>It fell 4.37%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell 3.61%, and Weibo fell 5.16%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Bilibili fell 6.05%, and Bilibili fell 6.19%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It fell 5.22%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>It fell 3.18%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>It fell 1.32%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>It fell 5.68%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>It fell 6.58%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">Didi</a>It fell 5.40%, while Zhihu fell more than 12%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">Manbang</a>It fell 11.34%.</p><p><b>WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.8%, down 2.2% this week.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed lower on Friday, extending their weekly decline to more than 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 69 cents, or nearly 0.8%, to settle at $91.07 a barrel. WTI contracts for near-month trading fell 2.2% this week.</p><p><b>Gold futures closed down 0.1%, after rising 3.1% this week, marking their biggest weekly gain in nine months.</b></p><p>Gold futures closed lower on Friday. Gold prices rose to their highest closing price in eight months on Thursday, driven by the Ukraine crisis, helping it post its biggest weekly gain in nine months. Gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,899.80 an ounce. Gold futures prices rose 3.1% this week, their biggest weekly gain since May 2021.</p><p><b>European stocks closed mostly lower, with Germany's DAX index falling 1.46%.</b></p><p>Germany's DAX index fell 1.46%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.25%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.94%.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212467873\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve dovish officials called for substantial policy adjustments, while the New York Fed questioned the necessity of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.</b></a></p><p>One of the Federal Reserve's most dovish officials called for a \"substantial adjustment\" to monetary policy but downplayed the need for aggressive tightening, becoming the second Fed official to oppose a 50-basis-point rate hike next month. Both Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and New York Fed President John Williams have clearly signaled that they will rate hike by 25 basis points at their March 15-16 meetings, but core officials remain open to how much interest rate cuts will ultimately be needed.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212733986\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard: It is appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the March meeting.</b></a></p><p>Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said the Fed is prepared to rate hike next month and decide to begin shrinking its balance sheet at its next few meetings. “Given that we’ve seen very strong data, I do expect it to be appropriate to launch a series of rate hike at the next meeting,” Brainard said Friday during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in New York.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212678496\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The Federal Reserve announced comprehensive trading restrictions to prevent another ethics scandal.</b></a></p><p>The Federal Reserve has formally imposed strict and comprehensive restrictions on the investment and trading behavior of central bank officials to prevent a repeat of the ethics scandal that embarrassed the Fed last year. These changes establish, in regulatory form, guidelines announced last October to restrict active trading, prohibit the buying and selling of individual stocks, and increase disclosure requirements for policymakers and senior staff.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212518673\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden signs temporary funding bill to avoid U.S. federal government shutdown</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Biden officially signed a temporary funding bill passed by the U.S. Senate on the evening of March 17, ensuring that the federal government has sufficient funds to continue operating until March 11, temporarily avoiding the predicament of a federal government shutdown.</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212466675\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The report states that SpaceX's stock split is 1:10, marking the company's first stock split.</b></a></p><p>According to reports,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>SpaceX, CEO Elon Musk's space exploration company, is splitting its common stock at a 1:10 ratio, and the company's valuation has soared to more than $100 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212267597\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The decline in stocks such as Roku and Tesla dealt another blow to Sister Wood's portfolio.</b></a></p><p>Cathie Wood just described her speculative tech sector strategy as a \"deep value\" portfolio with many undervalued companies, but another volatile trading day caused some of her big-name stocks to fall even deeper. U.S. stocks fell on Friday, with the expiration of $2.2 trillion in options amplifying the decline. Wood's favorite stocks, such as Roku and Tesla, were not spared either, with Roku plummeting 22% and Tesla falling 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/2212471627\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Moderna announces the launch of herpes virus and cancer mRNA vaccine research and development</b></a></p><p>Biopharmaceutical company Moderna announced that it has added three new mRNA vaccine development projects that will use the same technology as the Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine. According to the announcement, among the three new projects, the mRNA-1608 vaccine candidate aims to prevent herpes simplex virus type II (HSV-2); mRNA-1468 vaccine is used to reduce the incidence of varicella-zoster virus; mRNA-4359 is used to test the application prospects of this technology in the treatment of cancer.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Apply to NHTSA for approval to deploy autonomous vehicles</b></p><p>General Motors and its autonomous driving technology subsidiary Cruise said on Friday that they have applied to U.S. regulators to build and deploy an autonomous vehicle. This car, called Cruise Origin, features no manually controlled components such as a steering wheel or brake pedal. General Motors and Cruise first disclosed Cruise Origin in October 2020 and plan to obtain approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within months.</p><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/NW/1176574333\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Intel's stock price plummeted by more than 5% due to delays in the development of key chips.</b></a><b></b></p><p>Intel shares closed down 5.32% on Friday after CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed on Thursday that the release of its server chip, codenamed Granite Rapids, would be delayed from 2023 to 2024, and that it would have to invest heavily in the next two years to catch up with competitors. Granite Rapids is Intel's first server processor to use ultraviolet lithography technology, marking Intel's pursuit of...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>And key technologies required by other top chipmakers.</p><p><b>Hermès' Q4 financial report fell short of expectations; production capacity limitations impacted performance.</b></p><p>On Friday local time, French luxury goods giant Hermès released its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results. Data shows that the company's total revenue reached €2.38 billion in the fourth quarter, an 11% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, which was lower than analysts' expectations of 12% against the backdrop of a supply shortage of luxury goods. The main reason for this is that the revenue of the leather goods and equestrian harness division declined by more than 5%. Even though most other businesses delivered growth rates of more than 20%, it could not offset the impact of the decline in revenue of the largest business segment. Hermès CEO Axel Dumas revealed that limited production capacity has limited the company's performance growth. Making a Hermès bag takes 15 hours. Although the group recruits 400 craftsmen every year, the growth of production capacity is very limited considering the need for a lot of time for training.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154007444","content_text":"摘要：三大指数集体收跌，热门中概股普跌；防止“炒股风波”重演！美联储出台全面交易限制；纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性；重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%>>>海外市场收盘：俄乌局势惊扰市场，美股连续第二周下滑俄乌局势和加息前景仍在主导市场情绪，三大指数悉数收跌，纳指跌超1%，美股市场连续第二周录得下跌。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.68%，报34,079.18点；标普500指数跌0.72%，报4,348.87点；纳斯达克指数跌1.23%，报13,548.07点。热门中概股收盘普跌，知乎跌超12%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%热门中概股集体下挫，阿里巴巴跌4.37%，京东跌3.61%，微博跌5.16%，拼多多跌6.05%，哔哩哔哩跌6.19%，百度跌5.22%，新东方跌3.18%，网易跌1.32%，腾讯音乐跌5.68%，爱奇艺跌6.58%，滴滴跌5.40%，知乎跌超12%，满帮跌11.34%。WTI原油期货收跌0.8%，本周下跌2.2%原油期货价格周五收跌，使其周跌幅扩大至2%以上。纽约商品交易所3月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌69美分，跌幅近0.8%，收于每桶91.07美元。本周近月WTI合约下跌2.2%。黄金期货收跌0.1%，本周上涨3.1%创9个月来最大周涨幅黄金期货周五收低。在乌克兰危机推动下，金价周四升至八个月以来的最高收盘价，帮助其本周创下九个月以来的最大单周涨幅。纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.20美元，跌幅为0.1%，收于每盎司1899.80美元。本周黄金期货价格上涨3.1%，是2021年5月以来的最大单周涨幅。欧股收盘普跌，德国DAX指数跌1.46%德国DAX指数跌1.46%，英国富时100指数跌0.31%，法国CAC40指数跌0.25%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.94%。国际宏观美联储鸽派官员呼吁实质性调整政策，纽约联储质疑升息50基点必要性美联储最鸽派的官员之一呼吁“实质性调整”货币政策，但淡化了激进紧缩的必要性，这是第二位反对下月加息50基点的美联储官员。芝加哥联储行长Charles Evans和纽约联储行长John Williams都明确给出了将在3月15-16日会议上加息25个基点的信号，但核心官员对最终需要降息多少仍持开放态度。美联储理事布雷纳德：在3月份会议上启动一系列加息是合适的美联储理事布雷纳德表示，美联储已经准备好在下个月加息，并在未来的几次会议上决定开始缩减资产负债表。“鉴于我们已经看到了非常强劲的数据，我的确预计，在下一次会议上启动一系列加息是合适的，” 布雷纳德周五在芝加哥大学布斯商学院于纽约主办的一次会议的小组讨论中表示。美联储宣布全面的交易限制，以防再度发生道德丑闻美联储正式对央行官员的投资和交易行为采取严厉而全面的限制，以防再次发生去年那种让美联储蒙羞的道德丑闻。这些变动以法规形式确定了去年10月宣布的限制主动交易的指导方针，禁止买卖个股，并提高决策者和高级工作人员的披露要求。拜登签署临时拨款法案，避免美国联邦政府停摆美国总统拜登正式签署了美国国会参议院17日晚间通过的临时拨款法案，确保联邦政府有足够资金继续运转到3月11日，暂时避免了联邦政府停摆的窘境。公司新闻报道称SpaceX按1:10拆股，为该公司首次股票拆分据报道，特斯拉CEO埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）旗下太空探索公司SpaceX正在以1：10的比例拆分其普通股，该公司的估值已飙升至超过1000亿美元。Roku和特斯拉等股票下跌让木头姐的投资组合再受打击木头姐Cathie Wood刚刚形容自己的投机性科技板块策略是一个“深度价值”投资组合，里面很多被低估的公司，但又一个动荡的交易日让她持有的一些大牌股票跌得更深了。美国股市周五下跌，2.2万亿美元期权到期放大了股市跌幅。Wood钟爱的Roku、特斯拉等股票也未能幸免，其中Roku暴跌22%，特斯拉下跌2%。莫德纳宣布启动疱疹病毒、癌症mRNA疫苗研发生物医药企业莫德纳（Moderna）发布公告称，公司新增了三个mRNA疫苗开发项目，将使用与Spikevax新冠疫苗相同的技术。根据公告披露，三个新项目中，mRNA-1608候选疫苗旨在预防二型单纯疱疹病毒（HSV-2）；mRNA-1468疫苗用于降低水痘带状疱疹病毒的发病率；mRNA-4359用来测试这项技术治疗癌症的应用前景。通用汽车向NHTSA申请批准部署自动驾驶汽车通用汽车和其自动驾驶技术子公司Cruise周五表示，已向美国监管机构申请建造和部署一款自动驾驶汽车。这款汽车名为Cruise Origin，特点是不具备方向盘或刹车踏板等人工控制的部件。通用汽车和Cruise于2020年10月首次披露Cruise Origin，并计划在几个月内获得美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)的批准。重要芯片研发进程滞后，英特尔股价大跌逾5%英特尔股价周五收跌5.32%，原因是该公司首席执行官Pat Gelsinger周四证实，代号为Granite Rapids的服务器芯片将从2023年推迟至2024年，未来两年将不得不投入大量资金才能追上竞争对手。Granite Rapids是英特尔首款使用超紫外光刻技术的服务器处理器，这是英特尔追赶台积电和其他顶级芯片制造商所需的关键技术。爱马仕Q4财报不如预期，产能设限影响业绩当地时间周五，法国奢侈品巨头爱马仕发布四季度及全年财报。数据显示，公司四季度总营收达到23.8亿欧元，以不变汇率计算同比增长11%，在奢侈品供不应求的大背景下逊于分析师预期的12%。究其原因，主要是皮具及马具部门营收下降逾5%，即便其他业务大都交出超过20%的增速，也抵不过第一大业务板块营收下降带来的影响。爱马仕CEO阿克塞尔·杜马斯透露，产能有限限制了公司业绩增长，做一个爱马仕的皮包需要15个小时的工序，尽管集团每年会招募400名工匠，但考虑到需要大量时间培训，产能的增长十分有限。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094889900,"gmtCreate":1645109172189,"gmtModify":1676533998095,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094889900","repostId":"1125455457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125455457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645078408,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125455457?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 14:13","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125455457","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>According to Hong Kong's Wind News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials present expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They stated that a rate hike could occur soon, and indicated that the liquidation of bond portfolios could be significant.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Participants believed that, given the Federal Reserve's current high holdings of securities, a significant reduction in its balance sheet might be appropriate.\" The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at raising interest rates as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the meeting minutes, the stock market recovered its lost ground after the minutes were released. \"The market interpreted these comments as more subdued than expected,\" said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.</p><p>The market has been tense for the past few weeks due to soaring inflation and tough comments from some Federal Reserve officials (especially St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard), leading traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year, each by 0.25 percentage points. Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations have declined, and the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points is 50%.</p><p>“There’s been too much hype lately, and I think everyone is prepared for the minutes to take a very tough tone,” Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the committee has also developed procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. This balance sheet consists primarily of bonds purchased by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March also marked the end of the asset purchase program, although some participants hoped it would end sooner. The meeting minutes stated, \"Several participants expressed their preference for ending the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to reducing inflation.\"</p><p>The committee members discussed how to cut the balance sheet. The most likely approach is to stop investing in maturing bonds. However, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages directly so that only U.S. Treasury Bond are held on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, since this meeting, the latest inflation data shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials acknowledge that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting show that inflation occupied a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said that price increases were stronger and longer-lasting than they had expected.</p><p>The document states: \"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the committee's long-term targets, and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic reopening.\"</p><p>Members of the Federal Open Market Committee pointed out that inflation has begun to spread beyond industries affected by the pandemic and into broader economic sectors. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to afford higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed financial stability issues. Officials pointed out that the risks come from rising asset prices and the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Inflation\" was mentioned 73 times! One article to understand the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last night\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-17 14:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>According to Hong Kong's Wind News Agency, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released on Wednesday showed that some Fed officials present expressed concerns about financial stability, saying that loose monetary policy could pose significant risks. They stated that a rate hike could occur soon, and indicated that the liquidation of bond portfolios could be significant.</p><p>The meeting minutes stated, \"Participants believed that, given the Federal Reserve's current high holdings of securities, a significant reduction in its balance sheet might be appropriate.\" The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) strongly hinted at raising interest rates as early as March.</p><p>Despite the seemingly tough tone of the meeting minutes, the stock market recovered its lost ground after the minutes were released. \"The market interpreted these comments as more subdued than expected,\" said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors.</p><p>The market has been tense for the past few weeks due to soaring inflation and tough comments from some Federal Reserve officials (especially St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard), leading traders to expect the Fed to rate hike seven times this year, each by 0.25 percentage points. Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations have declined, and the current probability of the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.75 percentage points is 50%.</p><p>“There’s been too much hype lately, and I think everyone is prepared for the minutes to take a very tough tone,” Mokata said.</p><p>In addition to interest rates, the committee has also developed procedures for how to begin divesting its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet. This balance sheet consists primarily of bonds purchased by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and stimulate economic growth.</p><p>March also marked the end of the asset purchase program, although some participants hoped it would end sooner. The meeting minutes stated, \"Several participants expressed their preference for ending the committee's net asset purchase program earlier to send a stronger signal that the committee is committed to reducing inflation.\"</p><p>The committee members discussed how to cut the balance sheet. The most likely approach is to stop investing in maturing bonds. However, some officials say it may be necessary to sell mortgages directly so that only U.S. Treasury Bond are held on the balance sheet.</p><p>However, since this meeting, the latest inflation data shows that prices are rising at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Federal Reserve targets an average inflation rate of around 2%, and officials acknowledge that policy needs to be tightened to lower prices.</p><p>The minutes of the meeting show that inflation occupied a large part of the discussion at the meeting. The word was mentioned 73 times in the minutes, and members said that price increases were stronger and longer-lasting than they had expected.</p><p>The document states: \"Participants noted that recent inflation data continues to significantly exceed the committee's long-term targets, and that high inflation has persisted longer than they expected, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and economic reopening.\"</p><p>Members of the Federal Open Market Committee pointed out that inflation has begun to spread beyond industries affected by the pandemic and into broader economic sectors. Participants acknowledged that high inflation is a burden on American households, especially those least able to afford higher prices for basic goods and services.</p><p>The meeting also discussed financial stability issues. Officials pointed out that the risks come from rising asset prices and the rapid rise in crypto asset prices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://t.wind.com.cn/mobwftweb/M/news.html?show=wft&shareCode=831366864d5400b27c93175ce6191949&code=7FD6FE648F7B&newsopenstyle=original&lan=cn&device=ios&fontsize=normal&related=true&version=22.1.0#/00477C8CAC24128247A2C513C62367D5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125455457","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道，周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储一些与会官员表达了对金融稳定的担忧，称宽松的货币政策可能会带来重大风险。他们表示，可能很快就会加息，并表示债券投资组合的平仓力度可能会很大。会议纪要表示:“与会者认为，鉴于美联储目前持有的证券规模较高，大幅缩减资产负债表规模可能是合适的。”美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)强烈暗示最早将在3月份上调利率。尽管会议纪要的语气看似强硬，但股市在会议纪要公布后收复了失地。道富环球投资管理公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席经济学家西蒙娜•莫卡塔(Simona Mocuta)表示:“市场将这些言论解读为相对于预期较为温和。”过去几周，市场一直处于紧张状态，因通胀飙升，加上部分美联储官员(尤其是圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长布拉德)发表的强硬言论，令交易员预计美联储今年将加息七次，每次0.25个百分点。会议纪要公布后，市场预期有所回落，目前美联储上调基准利率1.75个百分点的几率为50%。“最近有太多的炒作，我认为每个人都准备好了纪要会采取非常强硬的语气，”莫卡塔说。除了利率外，该委员会还制定了如何开始剥离其近9万亿美元资产负债表的程序。该资产负债表主要由美联储为压低利率和刺激经济增长而购买的债券组成。3月也是资产购买计划结束的月份，不过一些与会成员希望能更快结束。会议纪要称，\"几位与会者表示，他们倾向于更早结束委员会的净资产购买计划，以发出更强烈的信号，表明委员会致力于降低通胀。\"委员们讨论如何削减资产负债表。最有可能的方法是，不再投资到期债券。 不过，一些官员说，可能有必要直接出售抵押贷款，以使资产负债表中只持有美国国债。不过自此次会议以来，最新的通胀数据显示，物价正以40年来最快的速度上涨。美联储的目标是平均通胀率在2%左右，官员们也承认，政策需要收紧以降低价格。会议纪要显示，通货膨胀在会议中占据了大量的讨论内容。这个词在纪要中被提到了73次，成员们表示，价格上涨比他们预期的更强劲、更持久。文件称:“与会者指出，最近的通胀数据继续显著超过委员会的长期目标，高通胀持续的时间超过了他们的预期，这反映了与疫情和经济重启有关的供需失衡。”联邦公开市场委员会成员指出，通胀开始蔓延到受疫情影响的行业之外，并进入更广泛的经济领域。与会者承认，高通胀是美国家庭的负担，尤其是那些最无力支付更高价格购买基本商品和服务的家庭。会议还讨论了金融稳定问题。官员们指出，风险来自于资产价格的上涨以及加密资产价格的快速上涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004209118,"gmtCreate":1642602163407,"gmtModify":1676533726355,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004209118","repostId":"1178155096","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9006687328,"gmtCreate":1641712606986,"gmtModify":1676533642323,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9006687328","repostId":"2201147402","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001990463,"gmtCreate":1641131472787,"gmtModify":1676533574730,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001990463","repostId":"2200790449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003393516,"gmtCreate":1640872653944,"gmtModify":1676533549555,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003393516","repostId":"2195613462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2195613462","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1640843749,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2195613462?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-30 13:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Global central banks fight inflation in 2021 and are busy \"collecting water\" in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195613462","media":"智通财经网","summary":"全球央行货币政策2021年终盘点及2022年预测。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly remain the main tone in 2021, and the supply chain problems brought by it have become the bottleneck of the global economy. At the same time, the explosive growth of demand brought by the economic opening has aggravated the problem of supply exceeding demand, and the soaring commodity prices in the second half of the year have further contributed to the price increase. There is no doubt that inflation has become the central topic of global monetary policy this year. Hot inflation is worrying, and many central banks inevitably have to \"cool down\" prices.</p><p>Inflation becomes a 'hot potato' in 2021</p><p>For the world's major central banks, soaring prices are the \"hot potato\" that can't be avoided in 2021. But the dilemma for the major central banks is that it is not entirely certain to what extent inflation is driven by the recovery in demand after the end of lockdowns, and to what extent it is driven by supply constraints caused by clogged ports and shortages of materials and workers. Higher interest rates will slow demand and do little to ease supply bottlenecks, while demand is an important driver in helping the world out of the pandemic-induced recession. If supply shortages ease as trade returns to normal, policies could end up being too tight, stifling the recovery.</p><p>As a result, for most of the year, many central banks argued that \"inflation is a temporary phenomenon\" due to the speed of economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks; Some central banks have chosen to wait and see what happens, hoping that the pressure of soaring inflation can be eased after the supply chain problem is resolved.</p><p>However, when the short-term stimulus effect of large-scale fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy disappeared, accompanied by the energy crisis, the epidemic caused the imbalance of supply chain and labor shortage, and the shortage of supply made the global inflation increasingly high. Moreover, rising prices are gradually guiding inflation expectations to rise steadily, and major central banks can only begin to tighten their purse pockets to curb an overheated economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b0f4258c71cd305613fa26ae29bbc7\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Central banks tackle inflation</p><p>The following are the monetary policy trends of major global central banks in 2021 compiled by Zhitong Finance APP:</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Gradually Abandon the \"Inflation Temporary Theory\", Taper Goes First, rate hike Expectations Strong</b></p><p>The view that most Fed officials have maintained for most of this year is that the current price increases are transitional and that supply chain bottlenecks and other factors are likely to fade. However, with the \"substantial\" progress in the U.S. economy and employment, and the gradual embedding of high inflation in expectations, it is increasingly difficult for the Fed to adhere to the \"temporary theory\", and then the eagle posture is full.</p><p>In the first half of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift began to be released to the market, but the Federal Reserve repeatedly insisted that it would not shift its monetary policy in advance; In the first half of the year, the Fed's policy tone remained pigeonish, and it generally stood still, optimistic about the economy and downplayed the inflation risk. Since the April meeting, with the increase of COVID-19 vaccination rate, the economic recovery of the United States has further accelerated. In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized the help of vaccination to the epidemic and the economy, and expressed optimism about the economic outlook of the United States. As the economy performed beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve released a turning signal at its June meeting and began preliminary discussions on the Taper plan.</p><p>Entering the second half of the year, the Fed's policy has become more and more hawkish. Zhitong Finance APP has reported that Fed officials made a plan at the meeting on July 27-28 to slow down the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. This is the first time that the Fed has explicitly discussed reducing bond purchases at the meeting after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. In September, officials first discussed the specific path to downsizing; Participants also mentioned the upside risks of inflation, saying that inflation levels will likely last longer than expected. On November 4, the Fed launched its Taper program, which began tapering in November and will end in June 2022; Reduce monthly asset purchases by $15 billion. It is worth noting that the bank still did not abandon the controversial word \"transitional\" for inflation in November.</p><p>But since the FOMC meeting in November, data shows that inflation in the United States is running at its highest rate in more than 30 years. On December 1st, Powell suddenly turned hawk: \"I think now may be a good time to abandon the description of 'temporary'.\" He also stressed that he would remain vigilant in controlling inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3e423a3b1240f9aa8633cdfba7042c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. CPI annual rate</p><p>It is clear that Powell's hawkish speech in early December was in preparation for the December 16th interest rate resolution. At the policy meeting in December, the Federal Reserve accelerated the timetable for ending QE and promised to end the large-scale bond purchase program by March next year, instead of June as originally planned, in order to prepare for an early rate hike.</p><p>The Fed dot plot shows that all commissioners expect the Fed to begin a rate hike in 2022, specifically three rate hike in 2022 and 2023. Commissioners are hawkish on policy moves, firmly leaning towards rate hike. Of the 18 FOMC members, only six expect fewer than three rate hike next year, and none see interest rates remain at their current near-zero levels next year.</p><p>Powell believes the Fed needs to look at inflation as a more pressing risk and has raised its '21 and' 22 inflation outlook. He also said that the Federal Reserve may rate hike before achieving full employment. In November, he said that the U.S. job market may improve enough before the middle of next year, and it can be considered that \"maximum employment\" will be reached. In other words, rate hike is possible by June next year.</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Medium-term inflationary pressure is small, easing policy is still the main tone</b></p><p>Despite high prices in the eurozone this year, the ECB has maintained a dovish stance as long-term inflationary pressures in the eurozone remain weak. The European Central Bank has always been a staunch supporter of \"inflation temporary theory\", and the core of its policy lies in adjusting its flexibility of easing policy to quickly meet the demand of economic growth.</p><p>In the first half of the year, ultra-loose monetary policy remained the main tone of the European Central Bank. Entering the second half of the year, against the background of soaring inflation and strong economic growth, in September, although the European Central Bank decided to keep the scale of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) and the bond purchase speed of the Asset Purchase Program (APP) unchanged; However, it plans to slow down the pace of Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the ECB still insisted at its October meeting that high inflation is still largely considered temporary, but that the current price \"hump\" will be more persistent than previously thought, increasing the risk that wages will begin to adjust and keep price growth high. Both Eagle and Dove agree that next year's rate hike is premature, while the disagreement is over the pace of continuing stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.</p><p>On December 16th, compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which announced the interest rate decision on the same day, the position of the European Central Bank was very \"dovish\". The central bank seemed to have just changed the way to continue QE, hoping to guide the euro zone economies to steadily tide over the difficulties of economic growth. The ECB said the emergency purchase programme (PEPP) adopted due to the Covid pandemic will be scaled back next quarter and is expected to end in March 2022, but it is possible to resume the PEPP programme at any time. However, monetary policy in quantitative easing has not come to an end. European policymakers plan to increase the conventional bond purchase program (APP) to 40 billion euros a month from the second quarter of next year, then shrink to 30 billion euros in the next three months, and finally return to the normalized scale of 20 billion euros in October.</p><p>In addition, there were officials signaling rate hike at the end of December. On December 22nd, Robert Holzmann, member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and president of the Austrian Central Bank, said, \"2022 will decide whether to suspend bond purchases in a data-driven way. In extreme cases, it is possible that a rate hike will be held at the end of next year or early 2023, roughly the same time as the third rate hike in the United States.\"</p><p><b>Bank of England: The unpredictable 'unreliable boyfriend', the first major central bank in rate hike</b></p><p>For most of the time this year, the Bank of England mainly focused on easing policies to support economic recovery, and it also insisted that inflation would be temporary; However, as the situation developed, the Bank of England became the first major central bank in rate hike in response to increasingly severe inflationary pressures, but it still couldn't handle hot prices.</p><p>What sets the Bank of England apart from other central banks is the vagaries of its policymakers, often catching markets off guard, which became a hallmark of the Bank of England. Bailey, the governor of the bank, was called \"Unreliable Boyfriend No.2\" by reporters, and Carney, the former governor, was also nicknamed \"Unreliable Boyfriend\". This was mainly because the communication between the Bank of England and the market was too poor, and it seemed that the policymakers of the Bank of England always had different words and deeds, and repeatedly jumped in the position of eagle pigeon.</p><p>On September 23rd, according to the interest rate decision, Bank of England officials unanimously voted to keep the main interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged; Its core expectation is that current global cost pressures will prove temporary.</p><p>But in August, UK inflation rose 3.2pc year-on-year, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, and significantly exceeded the bank's 2pc target. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, analysts expect it to be a short respite for consumers. UK CPI rose 4.2% in October; Some Bank of England policymakers, such as Governor Bailey and prominent hawk Micheal Saunders, have hinted at support for an immediate rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65d10eae0fb3746795c8c3604040c12\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>UK CPI annual rate</p><p>But on November 4, the Bank of England once again kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchases unchanged, bucking expectations from many investors that the Bank of England would be the first major central bank to rate hike after the pandemic. Many investors slammed the bank for not being as rate hike as expected and for being too poorly communicated with the market.</p><p>UK inflation hit a 10-year high in November, with CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Despite high prices, thanks to the situation in November, there are still a large chunk of investors betting that the Bank of England will not rate hike.</p><p>However, on December 16th, the Bank of England couldn't bear the inflationary pressure after all, and raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, which surprised the market. This was the first time that the bank raised the benchmark interest rate since the COVID-19 epidemic. The Bank of England has thus become the first central bank to rate hike among the world's three largest central banks.</p><p><b>Other central banks: rate hike suppresses inflation into the mainstream</b></p><p>As economies gradually recover from last year's recession, inflation seems to have exceeded policymakers' expectations, and the positions of major central banks have turned. Most central banks have even taken aggressive steps to start withdrawing monetary stimulus measures to avoid the unanchor of underlying inflation expectations.</p><p>Although the Bank of Japan still maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy, it will partially withdraw from the corporate financing policy launched in response to the COVID-19 epidemic after its expiration, and significantly reduce the purchase of ETFs this year, which may fall to the lowest level since 2012.</p><p>The Norwegian central bank and the Federal Reserve of New Zealand are the two G10 central banks that took the lead in rate hike this year. Both of them have rate hike twice and are likely to continue their rate hike next year; Norway is also the first advanced economy with a post-pandemic rate hike.</p><p>For other regions, the Latin American central bank became the main force of the global rate hike camp during the year; Brazil's central bank, the major central bank with the most and largest rate hike during the year, raised interest rates by 150 basis points to 9.25% at its latest meeting. In stark contrast to Latin American central banks holding the flag of rate hike, the year was calm for major Asian central banks.</p><p>In emerging markets, weighted policy rates in all economies have risen from 4.5% to 5% in recent months, with 10 out of 21 central banks rate hike and three cutting rates (Indonesia,Turkey,and North Macedonia).</p><p>2022 Outlook: The \"water collection\" of major central banks seems a foregone conclusion</p><p>With the last meeting of the world's major central banks in 2021, the market began to have a clear understanding of the attitude of central banks. The major central banks' policy shifts seem to embody their attempt to live with the pandemic. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said: \"Many people have been vaccinated and the booster shot campaign is accelerating. Society has become better at coping with the wave of the pandemic and the restrictions it brings, which has mitigated the impact of the pandemic on the economy.\"</p><p>What's more, as central bankers gained their understanding of widespread inflation, they developed different views on how the outbreak of the new virus could affect the economy. In the early days of the pandemic, the focus was that lockdowns would dampen consumer demand, which loose monetary policy could help boost. Now, officials' concerns turning to pandemic restrictions will impede the supply and shipment of goods, pushing up prices, reinforcing the case for rate hike.</p><p>For now, most central banks are starting to feel uneasy about high inflation, and it seems only a matter of time before monetary stimulus measures are tightened in 2022. Among advanced economies, the weighted policy rate for all countries has edged up to 0.14% in recent months from an all-time low of 0.07%, with six out of 17 central banks raising rates. Pre-pandemic, the developed economy-weighted policy rate was 0.8%, which still has plenty of upside compared.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f18f8dbb732e024659873129711d9\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In emerging markets, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the weighted policy interest rate of emerging markets was 5.5%, and there is still some room for rate hike. The upward trend in policy rates will continue in 2022 unless COVID hampers the economic recovery. In addition, the Federal Reserve's entry into rate hike next year may put some pressure on monetary policy in emerging markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6633279b1ed5cadfed7455edd4fdf3f\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are the \"weather vanes\" of global monetary policy, and their policy orientation will undoubtedly lead the mainstream of global monetary policy next year. Therefore, the market has also paid incomparable attention to these three central banks.</p><p><b>Fed: Ending Taper is a done deal, rate hike is just a matter of speed</b></p><p>The hot economy of the United States is further pushing up its price rises, and in addition to the high energy prices, the higher housing prices and service costs also reflect the certain \"stickiness\" of the price rises in the United States. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE price index gauge, also consistently sits above the 2% target. Therefore, unless the epidemic hits the US economy seriously again next year, ending Taper in March is already a certainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b446630969e35dcc006531adf239f4\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market is more concerned about when the Fed will rate hike and rate hike several times next year. The Fed's latest interest rate dot plot for December shows that all 18 officials at the meeting expect the Fed to rate hike next year, estimated at 25 basis points per rate hike. Among them, only one is expected to be in rate hike once next year, five are expected to be in rate hike twice next year, 10 are expected to be in rate hike three times next year, and two are expected to be in rate hike four times next year. The median estimate is expected to fall above rate hike three times next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5066bbae70662dedaeaa5ed3574f641\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Fed's interest rate dot plot itself has always been known for its volatility, and the current expectation is not equal to the actual action next year. However, according to Fedwatch, the market expects that the Fed may conduct a rate hike as early as March next year, with a probability of 53.8% in rate hike. In addition, the market expects the probability of the Fed's rate hike in the middle of next year to reach 91.21%, of which the probability of rate hike twice is expected to reach 41.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f4751ed9bfd0e7e575d641b45290a86\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea890048b1132c8498020f37d819f64\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The CME group FedWatch tool uses 30-day fed funds futures pricing data to analyze the likelihood of interest rate adjustments at future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Keep interest rates unchanged and QE in another way</b></p><p>At the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said it was \"unlikely to raise interest rates in 2022\". Moreover, judging from the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and officials' speeches, although the European Central Bank will end PEPP in 2022, it will still maintain the flexibility of purchasing bonds on a sufficient scale to meet the demand of economic growth, and the European Central Bank also plans to reinvest the principal of mature bonds.</p><p>At the December meeting, ECB officials remained below 2% for the eurozone's inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024. Inflation risks in the eurozone are indeed lower compared to the United States.</p><p>First, because the euro zone does not distribute government subsidies on a large scale as the United States, there is a gap in residents' income, and consumer spending is certainly not as strong as the United States. Second, the peak of the overall money supply expansion in the euro zone is 10%-15%, while the United States has reached more than 25%. In addition, wage growth in the euro zone remains moderate, and there has yet to be an acceleration in wages like the one seen in the United States. Therefore, supply bottleneck is the main reason for the upward risk of inflation in Europe.</p><p>And the ECB, for its part, must also take into account the significant divisions within the eurozone for which it sets its policies. Any large-scale withdrawal of crisis support threatens to create a debt crisis for some member states, for example, with implications for the sustainability of high debt burdens in economies such as Italy.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that the price increase in the euro zone will continue, and have begun to pay attention to the possibility of the European Central Bank's policy normalization in 2023; Currently, there are investors betting that the ECB could rate hike 15 basis points by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Bank of England: Or rate hike 100 basis points, reaching key rate will trigger QT</b></p><p>Under the sterling overnight index swap, the market now expects that even beneath the pandemic risk posed by the Omicron variant, as the labour market drives inflation, the Bank of England raises the rate hike by 100 basis points (i.e. the key rate from 0.25% to 1.25%) by December 2022, when the key rate will be above the 1% level for the first time since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f17ce49e74ff9aa9c907f21028364ef\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, if the Bank of England raises interest rates to the key level of 0.5% at its meeting in February next year, it could initiate quantitative tightening (QT), in which it will stop reinvesting proceeds from maturing notes, automatically reducing its portfolio size when debt matures. Secondly, a more aggressive move by the Bank of England will mean an aggressive sale of UK Treasury Bond after interest rates reach 1%. Money markets expect interest rates to hit that level in August. Still, traders are speculating about when and how the Bank of England will introduce this monetary policy, given the risk of a resurgence of the pandemic threatening the economic outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56705394c28562ca7d5f6de663c3cca\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>epilogue</p><p>Monetary policy, as the core counter-cyclical adjustment tool to hedge economic fluctuations, is often the most powerful means; At the same time, price stability and economic growth are as \"fish\" and \"bear's paw\" in the short term. In 2021, after flooding and against the backdrop of supply shortages, surging inflation inevitably followed; High inflation may be a medium-to long-term problem. Next, the task of stabilizing prices has been placed on the desks of major policymakers.</p><p>It is time for the market to get out of the \"good night\" of monetary easing in 2022. The hot economy can't last forever. At the end of 2021, major central banks have already kicked off the prelude to tightening policies. Unless the \"black swan\" of COVID hits the economic recovery hard, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. With the withdrawal of loose stimulus policies and the progress of the economic cycle, the growth prospects of major economies may face greater pressure next year.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global central banks fight inflation in 2021 and are busy \"collecting water\" in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal central banks fight inflation in 2021 and are busy \"collecting water\" in 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-30 13:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly remain the main tone in 2021, and the supply chain problems brought by it have become the bottleneck of the global economy. At the same time, the explosive growth of demand brought by the economic opening has aggravated the problem of supply exceeding demand, and the soaring commodity prices in the second half of the year have further contributed to the price increase. There is no doubt that inflation has become the central topic of global monetary policy this year. Hot inflation is worrying, and many central banks inevitably have to \"cool down\" prices.</p><p>Inflation becomes a 'hot potato' in 2021</p><p>For the world's major central banks, soaring prices are the \"hot potato\" that can't be avoided in 2021. But the dilemma for the major central banks is that it is not entirely certain to what extent inflation is driven by the recovery in demand after the end of lockdowns, and to what extent it is driven by supply constraints caused by clogged ports and shortages of materials and workers. Higher interest rates will slow demand and do little to ease supply bottlenecks, while demand is an important driver in helping the world out of the pandemic-induced recession. If supply shortages ease as trade returns to normal, policies could end up being too tight, stifling the recovery.</p><p>As a result, for most of the year, many central banks argued that \"inflation is a temporary phenomenon\" due to the speed of economic recovery and supply chain bottlenecks; Some central banks have chosen to wait and see what happens, hoping that the pressure of soaring inflation can be eased after the supply chain problem is resolved.</p><p>However, when the short-term stimulus effect of large-scale fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy disappeared, accompanied by the energy crisis, the epidemic caused the imbalance of supply chain and labor shortage, and the shortage of supply made the global inflation increasingly high. Moreover, rising prices are gradually guiding inflation expectations to rise steadily, and major central banks can only begin to tighten their purse pockets to curb an overheated economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2b0f4258c71cd305613fa26ae29bbc7\" tg-width=\"548\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Central banks tackle inflation</p><p>The following are the monetary policy trends of major global central banks in 2021 compiled by Zhitong Finance APP:</p><p><b>Federal Reserve: Gradually Abandon the \"Inflation Temporary Theory\", Taper Goes First, rate hike Expectations Strong</b></p><p>The view that most Fed officials have maintained for most of this year is that the current price increases are transitional and that supply chain bottlenecks and other factors are likely to fade. However, with the \"substantial\" progress in the U.S. economy and employment, and the gradual embedding of high inflation in expectations, it is increasingly difficult for the Fed to adhere to the \"temporary theory\", and then the eagle posture is full.</p><p>In the first half of the year, the pressure of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift began to be released to the market, but the Federal Reserve repeatedly insisted that it would not shift its monetary policy in advance; In the first half of the year, the Fed's policy tone remained pigeonish, and it generally stood still, optimistic about the economy and downplayed the inflation risk. Since the April meeting, with the increase of COVID-19 vaccination rate, the economic recovery of the United States has further accelerated. In its statement, the Federal Reserve emphasized the help of vaccination to the epidemic and the economy, and expressed optimism about the economic outlook of the United States. As the economy performed beyond expectations, the Federal Reserve released a turning signal at its June meeting and began preliminary discussions on the Taper plan.</p><p>Entering the second half of the year, the Fed's policy has become more and more hawkish. Zhitong Finance APP has reported that Fed officials made a plan at the meeting on July 27-28 to slow down the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. This is the first time that the Fed has explicitly discussed reducing bond purchases at the meeting after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. In September, officials first discussed the specific path to downsizing; Participants also mentioned the upside risks of inflation, saying that inflation levels will likely last longer than expected. On November 4, the Fed launched its Taper program, which began tapering in November and will end in June 2022; Reduce monthly asset purchases by $15 billion. It is worth noting that the bank still did not abandon the controversial word \"transitional\" for inflation in November.</p><p>But since the FOMC meeting in November, data shows that inflation in the United States is running at its highest rate in more than 30 years. On December 1st, Powell suddenly turned hawk: \"I think now may be a good time to abandon the description of 'temporary'.\" He also stressed that he would remain vigilant in controlling inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3e423a3b1240f9aa8633cdfba7042c\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>U.S. CPI annual rate</p><p>It is clear that Powell's hawkish speech in early December was in preparation for the December 16th interest rate resolution. At the policy meeting in December, the Federal Reserve accelerated the timetable for ending QE and promised to end the large-scale bond purchase program by March next year, instead of June as originally planned, in order to prepare for an early rate hike.</p><p>The Fed dot plot shows that all commissioners expect the Fed to begin a rate hike in 2022, specifically three rate hike in 2022 and 2023. Commissioners are hawkish on policy moves, firmly leaning towards rate hike. Of the 18 FOMC members, only six expect fewer than three rate hike next year, and none see interest rates remain at their current near-zero levels next year.</p><p>Powell believes the Fed needs to look at inflation as a more pressing risk and has raised its '21 and' 22 inflation outlook. He also said that the Federal Reserve may rate hike before achieving full employment. In November, he said that the U.S. job market may improve enough before the middle of next year, and it can be considered that \"maximum employment\" will be reached. In other words, rate hike is possible by June next year.</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Medium-term inflationary pressure is small, easing policy is still the main tone</b></p><p>Despite high prices in the eurozone this year, the ECB has maintained a dovish stance as long-term inflationary pressures in the eurozone remain weak. The European Central Bank has always been a staunch supporter of \"inflation temporary theory\", and the core of its policy lies in adjusting its flexibility of easing policy to quickly meet the demand of economic growth.</p><p>In the first half of the year, ultra-loose monetary policy remained the main tone of the European Central Bank. Entering the second half of the year, against the background of soaring inflation and strong economic growth, in September, although the European Central Bank decided to keep the scale of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) and the bond purchase speed of the Asset Purchase Program (APP) unchanged; However, it plans to slow down the pace of Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) bond purchases in the fourth quarter. Similarly, the ECB still insisted at its October meeting that high inflation is still largely considered temporary, but that the current price \"hump\" will be more persistent than previously thought, increasing the risk that wages will begin to adjust and keep price growth high. Both Eagle and Dove agree that next year's rate hike is premature, while the disagreement is over the pace of continuing stimulus measures in the form of bond purchases.</p><p>On December 16th, compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which announced the interest rate decision on the same day, the position of the European Central Bank was very \"dovish\". The central bank seemed to have just changed the way to continue QE, hoping to guide the euro zone economies to steadily tide over the difficulties of economic growth. The ECB said the emergency purchase programme (PEPP) adopted due to the Covid pandemic will be scaled back next quarter and is expected to end in March 2022, but it is possible to resume the PEPP programme at any time. However, monetary policy in quantitative easing has not come to an end. European policymakers plan to increase the conventional bond purchase program (APP) to 40 billion euros a month from the second quarter of next year, then shrink to 30 billion euros in the next three months, and finally return to the normalized scale of 20 billion euros in October.</p><p>In addition, there were officials signaling rate hike at the end of December. On December 22nd, Robert Holzmann, member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and president of the Austrian Central Bank, said, \"2022 will decide whether to suspend bond purchases in a data-driven way. In extreme cases, it is possible that a rate hike will be held at the end of next year or early 2023, roughly the same time as the third rate hike in the United States.\"</p><p><b>Bank of England: The unpredictable 'unreliable boyfriend', the first major central bank in rate hike</b></p><p>For most of the time this year, the Bank of England mainly focused on easing policies to support economic recovery, and it also insisted that inflation would be temporary; However, as the situation developed, the Bank of England became the first major central bank in rate hike in response to increasingly severe inflationary pressures, but it still couldn't handle hot prices.</p><p>What sets the Bank of England apart from other central banks is the vagaries of its policymakers, often catching markets off guard, which became a hallmark of the Bank of England. Bailey, the governor of the bank, was called \"Unreliable Boyfriend No.2\" by reporters, and Carney, the former governor, was also nicknamed \"Unreliable Boyfriend\". This was mainly because the communication between the Bank of England and the market was too poor, and it seemed that the policymakers of the Bank of England always had different words and deeds, and repeatedly jumped in the position of eagle pigeon.</p><p>On September 23rd, according to the interest rate decision, Bank of England officials unanimously voted to keep the main interest rate and bond purchase scale unchanged; Its core expectation is that current global cost pressures will prove temporary.</p><p>But in August, UK inflation rose 3.2pc year-on-year, the biggest increase since records began in 1997, and significantly exceeded the bank's 2pc target. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, analysts expect it to be a short respite for consumers. UK CPI rose 4.2% in October; Some Bank of England policymakers, such as Governor Bailey and prominent hawk Micheal Saunders, have hinted at support for an immediate rate hike.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b65d10eae0fb3746795c8c3604040c12\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>UK CPI annual rate</p><p>But on November 4, the Bank of England once again kept its benchmark interest rate and bond purchases unchanged, bucking expectations from many investors that the Bank of England would be the first major central bank to rate hike after the pandemic. Many investors slammed the bank for not being as rate hike as expected and for being too poorly communicated with the market.</p><p>UK inflation hit a 10-year high in November, with CPI rising 5.1% year-on-year, well above the Bank of England's 2% target. Despite high prices, thanks to the situation in November, there are still a large chunk of investors betting that the Bank of England will not rate hike.</p><p>However, on December 16th, the Bank of England couldn't bear the inflationary pressure after all, and raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%, which surprised the market. This was the first time that the bank raised the benchmark interest rate since the COVID-19 epidemic. The Bank of England has thus become the first central bank to rate hike among the world's three largest central banks.</p><p><b>Other central banks: rate hike suppresses inflation into the mainstream</b></p><p>As economies gradually recover from last year's recession, inflation seems to have exceeded policymakers' expectations, and the positions of major central banks have turned. Most central banks have even taken aggressive steps to start withdrawing monetary stimulus measures to avoid the unanchor of underlying inflation expectations.</p><p>Although the Bank of Japan still maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy, it will partially withdraw from the corporate financing policy launched in response to the COVID-19 epidemic after its expiration, and significantly reduce the purchase of ETFs this year, which may fall to the lowest level since 2012.</p><p>The Norwegian central bank and the Federal Reserve of New Zealand are the two G10 central banks that took the lead in rate hike this year. Both of them have rate hike twice and are likely to continue their rate hike next year; Norway is also the first advanced economy with a post-pandemic rate hike.</p><p>For other regions, the Latin American central bank became the main force of the global rate hike camp during the year; Brazil's central bank, the major central bank with the most and largest rate hike during the year, raised interest rates by 150 basis points to 9.25% at its latest meeting. In stark contrast to Latin American central banks holding the flag of rate hike, the year was calm for major Asian central banks.</p><p>In emerging markets, weighted policy rates in all economies have risen from 4.5% to 5% in recent months, with 10 out of 21 central banks rate hike and three cutting rates (Indonesia,Turkey,and North Macedonia).</p><p>2022 Outlook: The \"water collection\" of major central banks seems a foregone conclusion</p><p>With the last meeting of the world's major central banks in 2021, the market began to have a clear understanding of the attitude of central banks. The major central banks' policy shifts seem to embody their attempt to live with the pandemic. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said: \"Many people have been vaccinated and the booster shot campaign is accelerating. Society has become better at coping with the wave of the pandemic and the restrictions it brings, which has mitigated the impact of the pandemic on the economy.\"</p><p>What's more, as central bankers gained their understanding of widespread inflation, they developed different views on how the outbreak of the new virus could affect the economy. In the early days of the pandemic, the focus was that lockdowns would dampen consumer demand, which loose monetary policy could help boost. Now, officials' concerns turning to pandemic restrictions will impede the supply and shipment of goods, pushing up prices, reinforcing the case for rate hike.</p><p>For now, most central banks are starting to feel uneasy about high inflation, and it seems only a matter of time before monetary stimulus measures are tightened in 2022. Among advanced economies, the weighted policy rate for all countries has edged up to 0.14% in recent months from an all-time low of 0.07%, with six out of 17 central banks raising rates. Pre-pandemic, the developed economy-weighted policy rate was 0.8%, which still has plenty of upside compared.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c2f18f8dbb732e024659873129711d9\" tg-width=\"545\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In emerging markets, before the COVID-19 pandemic, the weighted policy interest rate of emerging markets was 5.5%, and there is still some room for rate hike. The upward trend in policy rates will continue in 2022 unless COVID hampers the economic recovery. In addition, the Federal Reserve's entry into rate hike next year may put some pressure on monetary policy in emerging markets.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6633279b1ed5cadfed7455edd4fdf3f\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"238\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are the \"weather vanes\" of global monetary policy, and their policy orientation will undoubtedly lead the mainstream of global monetary policy next year. Therefore, the market has also paid incomparable attention to these three central banks.</p><p><b>Fed: Ending Taper is a done deal, rate hike is just a matter of speed</b></p><p>The hot economy of the United States is further pushing up its price rises, and in addition to the high energy prices, the higher housing prices and service costs also reflect the certain \"stickiness\" of the price rises in the United States. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE price index gauge, also consistently sits above the 2% target. Therefore, unless the epidemic hits the US economy seriously again next year, ending Taper in March is already a certainty.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b446630969e35dcc006531adf239f4\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The market is more concerned about when the Fed will rate hike and rate hike several times next year. The Fed's latest interest rate dot plot for December shows that all 18 officials at the meeting expect the Fed to rate hike next year, estimated at 25 basis points per rate hike. Among them, only one is expected to be in rate hike once next year, five are expected to be in rate hike twice next year, 10 are expected to be in rate hike three times next year, and two are expected to be in rate hike four times next year. The median estimate is expected to fall above rate hike three times next year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5066bbae70662dedaeaa5ed3574f641\" tg-width=\"420\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Taking history as a mirror, the Fed's interest rate dot plot itself has always been known for its volatility, and the current expectation is not equal to the actual action next year. However, according to Fedwatch, the market expects that the Fed may conduct a rate hike as early as March next year, with a probability of 53.8% in rate hike. In addition, the market expects the probability of the Fed's rate hike in the middle of next year to reach 91.21%, of which the probability of rate hike twice is expected to reach 41.2%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f4751ed9bfd0e7e575d641b45290a86\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea890048b1132c8498020f37d819f64\" tg-width=\"399\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The CME group FedWatch tool uses 30-day fed funds futures pricing data to analyze the likelihood of interest rate adjustments at future meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).</p><p><b>European Central Bank: Keep interest rates unchanged and QE in another way</b></p><p>At the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said it was \"unlikely to raise interest rates in 2022\". Moreover, judging from the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and officials' speeches, although the European Central Bank will end PEPP in 2022, it will still maintain the flexibility of purchasing bonds on a sufficient scale to meet the demand of economic growth, and the European Central Bank also plans to reinvest the principal of mature bonds.</p><p>At the December meeting, ECB officials remained below 2% for the eurozone's inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024. Inflation risks in the eurozone are indeed lower compared to the United States.</p><p>First, because the euro zone does not distribute government subsidies on a large scale as the United States, there is a gap in residents' income, and consumer spending is certainly not as strong as the United States. Second, the peak of the overall money supply expansion in the euro zone is 10%-15%, while the United States has reached more than 25%. In addition, wage growth in the euro zone remains moderate, and there has yet to be an acceleration in wages like the one seen in the United States. Therefore, supply bottleneck is the main reason for the upward risk of inflation in Europe.</p><p>And the ECB, for its part, must also take into account the significant divisions within the eurozone for which it sets its policies. Any large-scale withdrawal of crisis support threatens to create a debt crisis for some member states, for example, with implications for the sustainability of high debt burdens in economies such as Italy.</p><p>However, some market participants are worried that the price increase in the euro zone will continue, and have begun to pay attention to the possibility of the European Central Bank's policy normalization in 2023; Currently, there are investors betting that the ECB could rate hike 15 basis points by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Bank of England: Or rate hike 100 basis points, reaching key rate will trigger QT</b></p><p>Under the sterling overnight index swap, the market now expects that even beneath the pandemic risk posed by the Omicron variant, as the labour market drives inflation, the Bank of England raises the rate hike by 100 basis points (i.e. the key rate from 0.25% to 1.25%) by December 2022, when the key rate will be above the 1% level for the first time since 2009.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f17ce49e74ff9aa9c907f21028364ef\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, if the Bank of England raises interest rates to the key level of 0.5% at its meeting in February next year, it could initiate quantitative tightening (QT), in which it will stop reinvesting proceeds from maturing notes, automatically reducing its portfolio size when debt matures. Secondly, a more aggressive move by the Bank of England will mean an aggressive sale of UK Treasury Bond after interest rates reach 1%. Money markets expect interest rates to hit that level in August. Still, traders are speculating about when and how the Bank of England will introduce this monetary policy, given the risk of a resurgence of the pandemic threatening the economic outlook.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e56705394c28562ca7d5f6de663c3cca\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>epilogue</p><p>Monetary policy, as the core counter-cyclical adjustment tool to hedge economic fluctuations, is often the most powerful means; At the same time, price stability and economic growth are as \"fish\" and \"bear's paw\" in the short term. In 2021, after flooding and against the backdrop of supply shortages, surging inflation inevitably followed; High inflation may be a medium-to long-term problem. Next, the task of stabilizing prices has been placed on the desks of major policymakers.</p><p>It is time for the market to get out of the \"good night\" of monetary easing in 2022. The hot economy can't last forever. At the end of 2021, major central banks have already kicked off the prelude to tightening policies. Unless the \"black swan\" of COVID hits the economic recovery hard, the trend of rising policy rates will continue in 2022. With the withdrawal of loose stimulus policies and the progress of the economic cycle, the growth prospects of major economies may face greater pressure next year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/631838.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78832e6d293703c403865ad10f135ee6","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","APP":"AppLovin Corporation","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","BK4539":"次新股","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4023":"应用软件",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/631838.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2195613462","content_text":"新冠疫情无疑仍是2021年的主基调，带来的供应链问题成为全球经济的瓶颈，同时经济开放带来需求的爆发式增长加剧了供不应求的问题，下半年大宗商品价格的飙升进一步助涨了物价。毫无疑问地，通胀成为了今年全球货币政策的核心话题。火热的通胀令人心忧，众多央行不可避免地要给物价“降温”。2021年通胀成“烫手山芋”对于全球各大央行来说，物价飙升是2021年无法回避的“烫手山芋”。但各大央行的困境在于，不能完全确定通胀在多大程度上是由封锁结束后需求的复苏推动的，又在多大程度上是由港口堵塞、材料和工人短缺造成的供应紧张导致的。提高利率将使需求放缓，对缓解供应瓶颈作用不大，而需求却是帮助世界摆脱疫情导致的经济衰退的重要推动力。如果供应短缺随着贸易恢复正常而缓解，政策最终可能会过于紧缩，从而扼杀经济复苏。因此，今年大多数时间，许多央行认为，由于经济复苏的速度和供应链瓶颈，“通胀是一个暂时现象”;一些央行选择静观其变，以期供应链问题解决后，通胀飙升压力能得到缓解。但当大规模财政刺激和宽松货币政策的短期刺激效应消失之后，伴随着能源危机，疫情致使供应链失衡和劳动力短缺，供不应求让全球通胀高企愈演愈烈。而且，上升的物价正在逐步引导通胀预期稳步上升，各大央行只能纷纷开始收紧钱袋抑制过热的经济。央行应对通胀以下是智通财经APP整理的2021年全球主要央行货币政策动向：美联储：逐渐放弃“通胀暂时论”，Taper先行，加息预期强烈今年大部分时间，大多数美联储官员一直坚持的观点是，目前的价格上涨是过渡性的，供应链瓶颈和其他因素可能会消退。但随着美国经济和就业取得“实质性”进展，而且通胀高企逐步嵌入预期也让美联储越来越难以坚持“暂时论”，进而鹰姿尽显。上半年，美联储货币政策转向的压力就开始向市场释放，但美联储一再坚持不会提前进行货币政策的转向;上半年美联储政策基调仍偏鸽，总体按兵不动，对经济较乐观，并淡化通胀风险。自4月会议以后，随着新冠疫苗接种率的提升，美国经济修复进一步提速，美联储在声明中强调了疫苗接种对疫情和经济的帮助，并对美国经济前景表示乐观。由于经济表现超预期，美联储于6月会议释放转向信号，开始初步讨论Taper计划。进入下半年，美联储政策转鹰气息越来越浓。智通财经APP曾报道，美联储官员在7月27-28日的会议上制定了可能在年底前放缓每月购债步伐的计划，这是新冠疫情爆发后美联储首次在会议上明确讨论缩减购债。9月份，官员们首次讨论了减码的具体路径;与会者还提到了通胀的上行风险，称通胀水平居于高位的时间将可能持续得比预期久。11月4日，美联储启动了Taper计划，于11月开始缩减，并将于2022年6月结束;将每月资产购买规模减少150亿美元。值得注意的是，该行于11月仍然没有对通胀问题放弃使用“过渡性”这个有争议的词。但是自11月的FOMC会议以来，数据显示美国的通胀率以30多年来的最高速度运行。12月1日，鲍威尔突然转鹰：“我认为现在可能是一个好时机，放弃‘暂时性’这一描述。”他同时强调，将在控制通胀方面保持警惕。美国CPI年率很显然，鲍威尔12月初的鹰派发言是为12月16日的利率决议做准备。12月政策会议上，美联储加快了结束QE的时间表，并承诺在明年3月前结束大规模的债券购买计划，而不是原计划的6月，以便为提早加息作准备。美联储点阵图显示，所有委员均预计美联储将在2022年开始加息，具体为2022年和2023年分别加息三次。委员们对政策举措持鹰派态度，坚定地倾向于加息。在18名FOMC委员中，只有6名预计明年加息不到3次，且没有任何委员看到明年利率保持当前近零水平。鲍威尔认为美联储需要将通胀视为更紧迫的风险，并上调了21年和22年的通胀前景。他还称美联储有可能在实现充分就业之前加息，而11月时他曾表示，美国就业市场可能会在明年年中之前就获得足够的改善，可以认为将达成“最大就业”。换言之，明年6月之前加息是可能的。欧洲央行：中期通胀压力小，宽松政策仍为主基调尽管今年欧元区物价高企，但欧洲央行仍保持鸽派立场，因为欧元区长期通胀压力依然疲弱。欧洲央行一直以来也是“通胀暂时论”的坚定支持者，其政策核心在于，调整其宽松政策灵活性以迅速满足经济增长需求。上半年，超宽松货币政策仍是欧洲央行的主基调。进入下半年，在通胀飙升和经济强劲增长的背景下，9月份，欧洲央行虽然决定维持紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)规模和资产购买计划(APP)的购债速度不变;但计划放缓第四季度的紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)购债速度。同样地，欧洲央行10月会议上仍坚持高通胀在很大程度上仍被认为是暂时的，但目前的价格“驼峰”将比以前认为的更持久，增加了工资开始调整并使价格增长保持在高位的风险。鹰鸽双方都认为明年加息为时尚早，而分歧在于以购买债券的形式继续实施刺激措施的速度。12月16日，相比于同一天公布利率决议的美联储和英国央行，欧洲央行的立场非常“鸽派”，该央行似乎只是换了个方式继续QE，希望引导欧元区经济体安稳度过经济增长难关。欧洲央行表示，因新冠疫情而采取的紧急购买计划(PEPP)下季度将被缩减，并预计将于2022年3月结束，但随时有可能恢复PEPP计划。不过，量化宽松货币政策并未就此划上句号，欧洲政策制定者计划从明年第二季度开始，常规债券购买计划(APP)将增至每月400亿欧元，随后在接下来三个月里缩减至300亿欧元，最后在10月恢复至200亿欧元的常态化规模。此外，12月底有官员发出加息信号。12月22日，欧洲央行管委会成员、奥地利央行行长霍尔茨曼(Robert Holzmann)称，“2022年将以数据驱动的方式决定是否暂停购债。在极端情况下，有可能将在明年年底或2023年初进行加息，与美国第三次加息的时间大致相同。”英国央行：变幻莫测的“不靠谱男友”，首家加息主要央行今年英国央行大部分时间还是以支持经济复苏的宽松政策为主，其也坚持认为通胀将是暂时的;但随着形势的发展，英国央行为应对日益严重的通胀压力，还是扛不住火热的物价而成为首个加息的主要央行。而使英国央行区别于其他央行的是其政策制定者的变幻莫测，常常令市场措手不及，这成为英国央行的一个标志。该行行长贝利被记者称为“不靠谱男友二号”，前行长卡尼也曾被戏称为“不靠谱男友”，这主要还是因为英国央行跟市场的沟通太差劲，显得英国央行政策制定者总是言行不一，在鹰鸽立场中反复横跳。9月23日，据利率决议，英国央行官员一致投票决定将主要利率与购债规模不变;其核心预期是，目前的全球成本压力将被证明是暂时的。但在8月份，英国通胀率同比增长3.2%，创自1997年有记录以来的最大增幅，大大超过了该行2%的目标。虽然在9月份，英国通胀意外放缓，但分析师预计这对消费者而言只是一次短暂的喘息。英国10月份CPI涨幅达到4.2%;一些英国央行决策者，如行长贝利和著名鹰派人士迈克尔•桑德斯已暗示支持立即加息。英国CPI年率但11月4日，英国央行再次维持基准利率和购债规模不变，与许多投资者认为英国央行将成为疫情爆发后第一家加息的主要央行的预期背道而驰。许多投资者抨击该行没有如预期般加息，与市场沟通太差。英国11月通胀率创下10年来新高，CPI同比上涨5.1%，远高于英国央行2%的目标值。尽管物价高企，得益于11月的情况，仍有大部分投资者押注英国央行不会加息。但是12月16日，英国央行终究还是扛不住通胀压力，而将基准利率由0.1%上调至0.25%，令市场大感意外，这是该行自新冠疫情以来首次上调基准利率。英国央行也因此成为了全球三大央行中首家加息的央行。其他央行：加息抑通胀成主流随着各国经济从去年的衰退中逐渐复苏，通胀情况似乎超出了决策者的预期，各大央行的立场纷纷转向;大部分央行甚至已经采取了积极措施，开始撤出货币刺激措施，以避免潜在的通胀预期脱锚。日本央行虽然仍维持超宽松货币政策，但为应对新冠疫情而推出的企业融资政策到期后将部分退出，且大幅缩减今年ETF购买量，或将降至2012年以来最低水平。挪威央行和新西兰联储是年内率先加息的两家G10央行，都已加息两次，明年很可能继续加息;挪威也是疫情后首个加息的发达经济体。对于其他地区而言，拉美央行成为了年内全球加息阵营的主力军;巴西央行是年内加息次数最多、幅度也最大的主要央行，在最近一次会议上把利率上调150个基点至9.25%。与拉美国家央行高举加息旗帜形成鲜明对比的，则是主要亚洲央行年内的风平浪静。在新兴市场，所有经济体的加权政策利率在最近几个月从4.5%上升到5%，21家央行中有10家加息，3家降息(印度尼西亚、土耳其和北马其顿)。2022年展望：各大央行“收水”似成定局随着世界上各大央行在2021年里的最后一次会议结束，市场对于央行的态度开始有了清晰的认识。各大央行政策转向似乎体现了他们试图与疫情共存。欧洲央行行长拉加德表示:“许多人已经接种了疫苗，加强针运动也在加速。社会已变得更善于应对疫情浪潮及其带来的限制，这减轻了疫情对经济的影响。”更重要的是，随着央行官员对大范围通货膨胀了解的加深，他们对新病毒的爆发如何影响经济产生了不同的看法。在疫情初期，人们关注的焦点是封锁会抑制消费需求，而宽松的货币政策可能有助于提振消费需求。 现在，官员们的担心转为防疫限制会阻碍商品的供应和运输，从而推高价格，这也强化了加息的理由。目前，大部分央行开始对高通胀感到不安，2022年收紧货币刺激措施似乎只是时间问题。在发达经济体中，所有国家的加权政策利率在最近几个月从0.07%的历史低点小幅上升至0.14%，17家央行中有6家上调了利率。在疫情之前，发达经济加权政策利率为0.8%，相比之下仍有很大的上升空间。而在新兴市场中，新冠疫情之前，新兴市场加权政策利率为5.5%，仍有一定的加息空间。除非新冠疫情阻碍经济复苏，否则政策利率上升的趋势将在2022年继续下去。此外，美联储于明年加入加息的行列可能会给新兴市场的货币政策带来一定的压力。其中，美联储、欧洲央行、英国央行作为全球货币政策的“风向标”，其政策取向无疑将引领明年全球货币政策的主流。因此，市场对这三大央行也是给予了无比多的关注。美联储：结束Taper已板上钉钉，加息只是快慢问题美国火热的经济正在进一步推高其物价上涨，而且除了能源价格高涨之外，住房价格和服务业成本等走高也反映了美国物价上升具有一定“粘性”。美联储最青睐的通胀指标——核心PCE物价指数指标也持续位于2%目标之上。因此，除非明年疫情再度严重冲击美国经济，不然3月份结束Taper已经是板上钉钉的事情了。市场更加关注的是美联储明年何时加息、加息几次。美联储12月的最新利率点阵图显示，以一次加息25个基点估算，所有与会的18位官员均预计美联储明年将加息。其中，只有一位预计明年加息1次，5位预计明年加息2次，10位预计明年加息3次，2位预计明年加息4次，中值预期落在了明年加息3次之上。以史为鉴，美联储利率点阵图本身就向来以多变而著称，当前的预期并不等于明年的实际行动。不过，根据“联储观察(Fedwatch)”，市场预计美联储可能最早会在明年3月份进行加息，加息一次概率达到53.8%。除此之外，市场预计美联储于明年中旬加息的概率达到91.21%，其中预计加息两次的概率达到41.2%。芝商所FedWatch工具利用30天联邦基金期货定价资料，用以分析联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)未来会议调整利率的可能性。欧洲央行：维持利率不变，换个方式QE在12月的会议上，欧央行行长拉加德称“不太可能在2022年加息”。而且从欧洲央行利率决议和官员发言来看，欧洲央行2022年虽然将结束PEPP，但仍然将保持足够规模购债的灵活性以满足经济增长需求，而且欧洲央行也还计划到期债券的本金再投资。12月会议上，欧洲央行官员对欧元区2023年和2024年的通胀预测仍低于2%。相对美国来说，欧元区的通胀风险确实更低。一是因为欧元区没有像美国那样大规模地发放政府补助，居民收入存在缺口，消费支出肯定不及美国那么强劲。二是因为欧元区整体货币供给扩张的高峰在10%-15%，而美国已经高达25%以上。另外，欧元区的工资增速仍然温和，尚未出现像美国那样的工资加速上涨的情况。因而供给瓶颈是构成欧洲通胀上行风险的主要原因。而且就欧洲央行而言，它还必须考虑到它为之制定政策的欧元区内部存在的重大分歧。任何大规模撤出危机支持的举措，有可能给一些成员国带来债务危机，比如，对意大利等经济体高债务负担的可持续性造成影响。不过，有一些市场参与者担心欧元区物价上涨将持续，已经开始关注欧洲央行2023年政策正常化的可能性;目前，有投资者押注欧洲央行可能在2022年底加息15个基点。英国央行：或加息100个基点，达到关键利率将触发QT根据英镑隔夜指数掉期，市场目前预计，即使在Omicron变种带来的疫情风险之下，由于劳动力市场推动通胀，英国央行到2022年12月将加息100个基点(即关键利率由0.25%升至1.25%)，届时关键利率将自2009年以来首次位于1%水平以上。其次，如果英国央行在明年2月的会议上将利率升至0.5%的关键水平，就可能启动量化紧缩(QT)，即它将停止将到期票据收益进行再投资，从而在债务到期时自动减少其投资组合规模。其次，英国央行的更激进举措将意味着，在利率达到1%之后，可能会积极出售英国国债。货币市场预计，利率将在8月份触及这一水平。不过，鉴于疫情复发威胁到经济前景的风险，交易员们正在揣测英国央行何时以及如何引入这一货币政策。结语货币政策作为对冲经济波动的最核心逆周期调节工具，往往是最有力的手段;与此同时，物价稳定与经济增长在短期内就如“鱼”与“熊掌”一般不可兼得。2021年，在大水漫灌之后，又是在供应短缺的背景下，通胀飙升不可避免地随之而来;通胀高企或是中长期问题。接下来，稳定物价任务已经被摆到各大政策制定者的办公桌上。2022年市场是时候走出货币宽松的“良夜”，炙手可热的经济不可能永远持续，2021年底各大央行已经拉开了收紧政策的序幕。除非新冠疫情这只“黑天鹅”严重打击经济复苏，否则政策利率上升的趋势将在2022年继续下去。随着宽松刺激政策的退出以及经济周期进程，明年各大经济体增长前景可能将面临较大压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SH":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"PSQ":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"FOMC":1,"IVV":0.6,"APP":1,"ZTmain":0.9,"DXD":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"QLD":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"NQmain":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097671635,"gmtCreate":1645456247855,"gmtModify":1676534029463,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097671635","repostId":"2213609052","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213609052","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645423509,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213609052?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 14:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213609052","media":"文涛宏观债券研究","summary":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike and balance sheet reduction are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of each rate hike.</b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation. After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective, implemented a strong tightening policy, strictly controlled monetary increases in the early 1980s, and subsequently turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation rose, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond through rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market. During this period, the Federal Reserve began to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>In response to the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin a rate hike, which led to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply as the stock market crash triggered a recession. Subsequent economic recovery and rising home prices raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to resume its rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy. rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages. The hawkishness far exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>Supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices share commonalities with those of the 1980s; Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, similar to the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the above issues.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have become the core trading logic in overseas markets this year, and are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s, providing a reference for judging this year's trend. The first part of the series will begin with a brief review of the basic situation of each rate hike, including the background, the economic and financial situation they faced, and policy considerations.</p><p><b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles: 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06, and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. monetary policy was in a period of intense change, with Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations theories all dominating. In order to address the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. Entering the 1990s, concerns about high inflation were completely dispelled, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Greenspan's leadership was mainly based on the Taylor rule to regulate the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, global financial markets were constantly turbulent. The Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates during each crisis, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly a withdrawal of previous crisis easing policies. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the level of global monetary easing was unprecedented in history. Currently, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and record-high inflation, and the market has strong expectations for continuous and rapid rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, which almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain disruptions, economic downturn, and high stock and housing prices, the aforementioned rate hike history provides valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shocks</b></p><p><b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation.</b>In the 1960s and 1970s, the dollar system was constantly in turmoil. With the oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, industrial raw material prices rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance between the United States and the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States continues to experience double-digit inflation and sluggish employment, plunging it into a long-term stagflation. In 1964, the inflation rate in the United States was 1%, and the unemployment rate was 5%. Then it rose all the way up. By 1980, the inflation rate was close to 14.5%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 7.5%. In the 1970s, guided by Keynes's idea of \"opportunistic choice,\" the Federal Reserve constantly weighed the two aspects of controlling inflation and protecting employment, resulting in an unclear monetary policy objective, a \"stop-go\" in efforts to control inflation, a continuous decline in public confidence in the economy and government policies, and high inflation expectations that distorted economic behavior. Until inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective and implemented a tough tightening policy.</b>Against the backdrop of the \"stagflation era,\" which lasted for more than a decade, Paul Volcker took office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's policy of making discretionary decisions and stopping and starting, and to make controlling inflation the most important goal, especially to solve the balance of payments problem it brought about.<b>Volcker's policy approach can be divided into two phases: strict control of monetary increases in the early 1980s, followed by a shift to rate hike.</b></p><p>From 1979 to 1981, Volcker followed monetarist ideas, using reducing the money supply as an intermediary goal to strictly control credit, which led to significant fluctuations in the Federal Funds rate, reaching a high of 20% in 1980. That year, it triggered the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. The manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly severely affected. Unemployment in the residential construction industry and the automobile manufacturing industry was 22% and 24% respectively at the end of the year.</p><p>As the unemployment rate rose, the Federal Reserve's policy eased slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply aggressively, and the Federal Funds rate surged to 20% again. As the market expected the Fed to be unable to withstand the pressure of rising unemployment, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this point, Volcker maintained absolute policy resolve, firmly believing that the Federal Reserve would not back down and would maintain its established course of restricting money and credit growth. In 1982, the Federal Reserve shifted its focus back to Federal Funds rate and began publishing its interest rate targets for the first time to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to decline, and by the end of the recession, the inflation rate had fallen below 5%. Over time, the Federal Reserve's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, the unemployment rate fell, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. Between 1983 and 1984, it conducted 13 consecutive rate hike, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the U.S. inflation rate has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Coping with rising inflation and dollar depreciation</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy entered a two-decade period of low inflation and high growth called \"the Great Moderation.\" During this period, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management, and policy effectiveness. The Federal Reserve has begun to more systematically make inflation and the output gap the main considerations in monetary policy, known as the \"Taylor rule\". When output is higher than potential or inflation is higher than target, the Federal Reserve immediately adopts a tight monetary policy, and vice versa. The \"Taylor Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate growth should exceed inflation growth, so the Federal Reserve's response is more decisive and assertive when inflation rises.</p><p><b>With the dollar depreciating and inflation rising, the Federal Reserve is responding through rate hike.</b>From late 1986 to mid-1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, soaring from below 2% to over 4%, while the overall unemployment rate has been steadily declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% from January to September. In August 1987, Greenspan became Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the US stock market experienced a \"Black Monday,\" with the stock market plummeting by 20% in a single day. In an effort to rescue the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut in Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. However, the crisis was short-lived; by the end of the year, the stock market had rebounded rapidly, and the economy had recovered. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary and dollar depreciation pressures. By the end of the rate hike cycle in 1989, the rate hike had risen 21 times by 344 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. February 1994-February 1995: Preventing economic overheating</b></p><p><b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>From 1990 to 1991, the U.S. economy entered another recession. The target federal funds rate was lowered from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Subsequently, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decline, and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve resumed its rate hike cycle in early 1994. The recovery was relatively rapid during the recession around 1991, with quarterly GDP growth rebounding from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showing an upward trend, the stock market soaring, and the S&P 500 rising 47% between 1991 and 1994, indicating that financial markets were showing signs of overheating.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market.</b>Despite broad market expectations for rate hike, the rate hike cycle of 1994 still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of the rate hike, as inflation remained at a market low of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, the interest rate was urgently raised from 3.50% to 3.75%. Subsequently, out of concern about an overheated economy and rising inflation, the Federal Reserve changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach, with 50-75 basis points per rate hike, until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, and a total of 300 basis points per rate hike seven times. The Federal Reserve tightened more than the market expected, and at a faster pace. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was jokingly referred to by the media as a \"bond market massacre\". In the following nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose by 220 basis points, and mortgage rates also rose accordingly. Bankruptcy rates are rising sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was the largest municipal bankruptcy case in U.S. history at the time. Mexico and Argentina are also heading towards financial crises. The Federal Reserve is ending its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve has begun to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved its policy communication. Previously, Greenspan had never released any FOMC meeting statements or materials in order to retain policy flexibility and not be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, as the influence of the rational expectations school in policymaking expanded, the FOMC officially announced its policy changes for the first time in February 1994. Subsequently, the Fed began to clarify its interest rate target in its statements, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the damage caused by the Fed's unexpected move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: From easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>As the Asian financial crisis spread, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the severe market impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite significant volatility in the financial markets, the aforementioned events had little impact on the real economy, and the economy continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy began to take off, wages rose, imports surged, personal consumption increased significantly, the CPI exceeded the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to around 4%. The economies of East Asia and Europe are also showing signs of recovery, and even the South American economy is improving. The internet economy boomed, technology stocks surged, and the Nasdaq index rose from 740 points in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve withdrew its easing measures, and the dot-com bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin rate hike, effectively reversing the rate cuts it had made a year earlier at the height of the financial crisis. Despite the positive economic performance, investors' expectations for rate hike remain insufficient due to insufficient market communication. In this tightening cycle. The Federal Reserve rate hike six times, a total of 175 basis points to 6.5%, followed by the bursting of the tech stock bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cooling down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Federal Reserve to ease significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell by 85%, and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, interest rates were cut six times and four times respectively, bringing the total to 11 in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had fallen from 6.5% to 1%, a level that remained unchanged until June 2004.</p><p><b>Economic recovery and rising home prices have raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, home prices fluctuated upwards, rising 52% from their 2001 low in mid-2004. The S&P 500 also continued to rebound, rising 37% from its 2002 low. This has raised market concerns about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline, while the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating above the 2% target range, which strengthened the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market prepared for the tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June 2004, the Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Ben Bernanke became Chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued to tighten the tightening cycle. This round saw 17 rate hike, raising the price by 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to emerge, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. December 2015-December 2018: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to lower its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, with the stock market crash and the risk of economic recession increasing, the FOMC cut interest rates urgently, starting a nine-year path of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% ever since. As the economy gradually emerges from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continues to recover, with the unemployment rate falling from a high of 10% in 2009 to around 5%. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the jobs gap was 100,000 jobs per month, while at that time the economy was actually creating more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Fed judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. Meanwhile, inflation remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Federal Reserve began its first rate hike. By December 2018, there had been nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to the 2.5% level.</p><p><b>rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages.</b>At the beginning of the rate hike in 2015, the Federal Reserve was relatively cautious and only conducted its second rate hike in December 2016, a year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than previously expected by the market. However, from 2017 to 2018, the Federal Reserve's rate hike accelerated significantly. Yellen tightened its stance three times in 2017, and Powell further increased it after taking office. There were four rate hike throughout 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when US stocks plummeted, when it still chose to tighten further. Its hawkishness far exceeded market expectations. Subsequently, as the US economy weakened and financial markets fluctuated, this rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession prompted the Federal Reserve to further strengthen its market communication of monetary policy.</b>Starting in 2008, Bernanke began holding press conferences and giving television interviews after each FOMC meeting. During this rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has increased significantly, forward-looking guidance has received attention, and market expectations have been guided to some extent. Even so, the tapering still triggered global market turmoil in the early stages due to the unprecedented extent of the previous easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. Which year is 2022 more like? Combining multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>The current rate hike cycle is highly complex, and the current macroeconomic background seems to share some of the core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices are very similar to those of the 1980s (but have not yet entered stagflation). Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, much like the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the aforementioned issues.</p><p>Risk warning: Economic growth may fall short of expectations, and policy withdrawals may exceed expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wthgzqyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat have the Federal Reserve's past rate hike looked like?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">文涛宏观债券研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 14:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Core Points</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve's rate hike and balance sheet reduction are the core trading logic of overseas markets this year, and also important external constraints on domestic policies and asset trends. We have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s.</p><p><b>The first article reviews the basic situation of each rate hike.</b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s. These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies.</p><p><b>1．1983.3-1984.9：</b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation. After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective, implemented a strong tightening policy, strictly controlled monetary increases in the early 1980s, and subsequently turned to rate hike.</p><p><b>2.1987.1-1989.7：</b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike. During this period, the dollar depreciated and inflation rose, prompting the Federal Reserve to respond through rate hike.</p><p><b>3.1994.2-1995.2：</b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating. Subsequently, the Fed's rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market. During this period, the Federal Reserve began to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</p><p><b>4.1999.6-2000.5：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asian Finance</a>In response to the crisis, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin a rate hike, which led to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.</p><p><b>5.2004.6-2006.6：</b>In 2001, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply as the stock market crash triggered a recession. Subsequent economic recovery and rising home prices raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to resume its rate hike process.</p><p><b>6.2015.12-2018.12：</b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy. rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages. The hawkishness far exceeded market expectations.</p><p><b>Which year is this round of rate hike more like? Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>Supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices share commonalities with those of the 1980s; Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, similar to the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the above issues.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike and shrinking balance sheet have become the core trading logic in overseas markets this year, and are also important external constraints affecting domestic policies and asset trends. To this end, we have launched a series of Federal Reserve tightening reports, systematically reviewing the tightening processes and market impacts since the 1980s, providing a reference for judging this year's trend. The first part of the series will begin with a brief review of the basic situation of each rate hike, including the background, the economic and financial situation they faced, and policy considerations.</p><p><b>Over the past four decades, the Federal Reserve has had six rate hike cycles, including the famous Volcker fight against inflation in the 1980s.</b>Since the 1980s, the Federal Reserve has had six significant rate hike cycles: 1983-84, 1987-89, 1993-95, 1999-00, 2004-06, and 2015-17. In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. monetary policy was in a period of intense change, with Keynesianism, monetarism, and rational expectations theories all dominating. In order to address the long-term stagflation problem, Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker implemented firm monetary tightening. Entering the 1990s, concerns about high inflation were completely dispelled, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under Greenspan's leadership was mainly based on the Taylor rule to regulate the economic cycle and inflation. From the late 1990s to the 21st century, global financial markets were constantly turbulent. The Federal Reserve actively cut interest rates during each crisis, and the subsequent rate hike cycle was mainly a withdrawal of previous crisis easing policies. In 2015, the Federal Reserve under Yellen implemented monetary policy normalization after the global financial crisis and the Great Recession faded. In 2020-21, the level of global monetary easing was unprecedented in history. Currently, the United States is facing a strong economic recovery and record-high inflation, and the market has strong expectations for continuous and rapid rate hike by the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>These rate hike cycles come in a variety of types, including high inflation caused by supply-side pressures, bubble pressures brought about by real estate and stocks, and normalization processes after the implementation of unconventional policies. Due to the complexity of the current rate hike cycle, which almost simultaneously includes multiple factors such as high inflation, supply chain disruptions, economic downturn, and high stock and housing prices, the aforementioned rate hike history provides valuable reference information.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b9a64cf59f3dbaf1405e00167b4331\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05b75677aec2a6ee97321201d207fd5a\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. 1983.3-1984.9: Stagflation Dilemma Caused by Crude Oil Supply Shocks</b></p><p><b>The oil supply shock, coupled with unclear policy objectives, has led the United States into an a vicious circle of stagflation.</b>In the 1960s and 1970s, the dollar system was constantly in turmoil. With the oil crises of 1973-1975 and 1979-1982 and the Iran-Iraq War, global oil production shrank, industrial raw material prices rose, business investment slowed, productivity declined, and the trade balance between the United States and the rest of the world deteriorated. The United States continues to experience double-digit inflation and sluggish employment, plunging it into a long-term stagflation. In 1964, the inflation rate in the United States was 1%, and the unemployment rate was 5%. Then it rose all the way up. By 1980, the inflation rate was close to 14.5%, and the unemployment rate exceeded 7.5%. In the 1970s, guided by Keynes's idea of \"opportunistic choice,\" the Federal Reserve constantly weighed the two aspects of controlling inflation and protecting employment, resulting in an unclear monetary policy objective, a \"stop-go\" in efforts to control inflation, a continuous decline in public confidence in the economy and government policies, and high inflation expectations that distorted economic behavior. Until inflation and unemployment finally reached unacceptably high levels.</p><p><b>After Volcker took office as Federal Reserve Chairman, he made controlling inflation his core objective and implemented a tough tightening policy.</b>Against the backdrop of the \"stagflation era,\" which lasted for more than a decade, Paul Volcker took office as Chairman of the Federal Reserve in August 1979, determined to end the Fed's policy of making discretionary decisions and stopping and starting, and to make controlling inflation the most important goal, especially to solve the balance of payments problem it brought about.<b>Volcker's policy approach can be divided into two phases: strict control of monetary increases in the early 1980s, followed by a shift to rate hike.</b></p><p>From 1979 to 1981, Volcker followed monetarist ideas, using reducing the money supply as an intermediary goal to strictly control credit, which led to significant fluctuations in the Federal Funds rate, reaching a high of 20% in 1980. That year, it triggered the worst economic recession in the United States since the Great Depression, with the unemployment rate peaking at nearly 11%, which lasted until November 1982. The manufacturing, construction and automotive industries have been particularly severely affected. Unemployment in the residential construction industry and the automobile manufacturing industry was 22% and 24% respectively at the end of the year.</p><p>As the unemployment rate rose, the Federal Reserve's policy eased slightly. However, as the economy showed signs of stabilization in the second half of 1980, the Federal Reserve continued to tighten the money supply aggressively, and the Federal Funds rate surged to 20% again. As the market expected the Fed to be unable to withstand the pressure of rising unemployment, long-term interest rates continued to rise, reflecting the deterioration of inflation expectations.</p><p>At this point, Volcker maintained absolute policy resolve, firmly believing that the Federal Reserve would not back down and would maintain its established course of restricting money and credit growth. In 1982, the Federal Reserve shifted its focus back to Federal Funds rate and began publishing its interest rate targets for the first time to guide market expectations. But inflation continued to decline, and by the end of the recession, the inflation rate had fallen below 5%. Over time, the Federal Reserve's commitment to low inflation gained credibility, the unemployment rate fell, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth and stability. As the economy emerged from recession, from March 1983 to September 1984, the Federal Reserve continued to implement rate hike to stabilize inflation expectations. Between 1983 and 1984, it conducted 13 consecutive rate hike, with a total rate hike of 275 basis points. Since then, the U.S. inflation rate has basically remained below 5%, marking the end of the era of high inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782a9d24d2e6d350a2b2f13c7e9b677d\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. 1987.1-1989.7: Coping with rising inflation and dollar depreciation</b></p><p><b>Inflation control has gradually become a policy objective of the Federal Reserve, and the Taylor rule has been gradually introduced, clarifying the positive relationship between high inflation and rate hike.</b>After the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy entered a two-decade period of low inflation and high growth called \"the Great Moderation.\" During this period, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy improved in terms of policy rules, expectation management, and policy effectiveness. The Federal Reserve has begun to more systematically make inflation and the output gap the main considerations in monetary policy, known as the \"Taylor rule\". When output is higher than potential or inflation is higher than target, the Federal Reserve immediately adopts a tight monetary policy, and vice versa. The \"Taylor Rule\" means that Federal Funds rate growth should exceed inflation growth, so the Federal Reserve's response is more decisive and assertive when inflation rises.</p><p><b>With the dollar depreciating and inflation rising, the Federal Reserve is responding through rate hike.</b>From late 1986 to mid-1987, due to the Reagan administration's continuous policy of devaluing the dollar to promote trade, domestic inflation in the United States rose rapidly again, soaring from below 2% to over 4%, while the overall unemployment rate has been steadily declining for five consecutive years. In early 1987, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation, rising from 5.8% to 7.3% from January to September. In August 1987, Greenspan became Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In October, the US stock market experienced a \"Black Monday,\" with the stock market plummeting by 20% in a single day. In an effort to rescue the market, Greenspan announced an emergency 50 basis point cut in Federal Funds rate to 6.75%, and interest rates continued to fall to 6.5% in 1988. However, the crisis was short-lived; by the end of the year, the stock market had rebounded rapidly, and the economy had recovered. The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates to alleviate inflationary and dollar depreciation pressures. By the end of the rate hike cycle in 1989, the rate hike had risen 21 times by 344 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to 9.3%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45feb950c97e06ebb3f56f14b6271f98\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. February 1994-February 1995: Preventing economic overheating</b></p><p><b>After a rapid rebound following the recession, the economy and stock market showed signs of overheating.</b>From 1990 to 1991, the U.S. economy entered another recession. The target federal funds rate was lowered from 9% to 3% in 1992 and remained low. Subsequently, as the economy improved, the unemployment rate continued to decline, and inflation remained low, the Federal Reserve resumed its rate hike cycle in early 1994. The recovery was relatively rapid during the recession around 1991, with quarterly GDP growth rebounding from negative to 4%-5%, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield showing an upward trend, the stock market soaring, and the S&P 500 rising 47% between 1991 and 1994, indicating that financial markets were showing signs of overheating.</p><p><b>The pace of rate hike exceeded market expectations, causing significant volatility in the bond market.</b>Despite broad market expectations for rate hike, the rate hike cycle of 1994 still surprised investors in terms of the timing and magnitude of the rate hike, as inflation remained at a market low of around 3% and the unemployment rate of 6.5% had not yet returned to pre-recession levels. In April 1994, the interest rate was urgently raised from 3.50% to 3.75%. Subsequently, out of concern about an overheated economy and rising inflation, the Federal Reserve changed its gradual approach of 25 basis points per rate hike to a more aggressive approach, with 50-75 basis points per rate hike, until February 1995, when Federal Funds rate rose to 6.00%, and a total of 300 basis points per rate hike seven times. The Federal Reserve tightened more than the market expected, and at a faster pace. The unexpected rise in interest rates triggered turmoil in the bond market, which was jokingly referred to by the media as a \"bond market massacre\". In the following nine months, the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rate rose by 220 basis points, and mortgage rates also rose accordingly. Bankruptcy rates are rising sharply worldwide, with Orange County, California (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORAN\">Orange</a>County) was the largest municipal bankruptcy case in U.S. history at the time. Mexico and Argentina are also heading towards financial crises. The Federal Reserve is ending its rate hike cycle.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve has begun to increase its guidance on inflation expectations.</b>During this period, the Federal Reserve improved its policy communication. Previously, Greenspan had never released any FOMC meeting statements or materials in order to retain policy flexibility and not be bound by previous statements. In the 1990s, as the influence of the rational expectations school in policymaking expanded, the FOMC officially announced its policy changes for the first time in February 1994. Subsequently, the Fed began to clarify its interest rate target in its statements, thereby managing inflation expectations and minimizing the damage caused by the Fed's unexpected move.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ee36cf546538e1fb2d1d36f097b573\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. 1999.6-2000.5: From easing to tightening after the Asian financial crisis</b></p><p><b>As the Asian financial crisis spread, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response.</b>In response to the severe market impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default, and the bankruptcy of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from 5.5% to 4.75% in the summer and early fall of 1998. Despite significant volatility in the financial markets, the aforementioned events had little impact on the real economy, and the economy continued to grow strongly. The U.S. economy began to take off, wages rose, imports surged, personal consumption increased significantly, the CPI exceeded the policy target of 2%, and the unemployment rate continued to fall to around 4%. The economies of East Asia and Europe are also showing signs of recovery, and even the South American economy is improving. The internet economy boomed, technology stocks surged, and the Nasdaq index rose from 740 points in 1997 to a high of 5030 in March 2000.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve withdrew its easing measures, and the dot-com bubble burst.</b>In June 1999, the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw its easing monetary policy and begin rate hike, effectively reversing the rate cuts it had made a year earlier at the height of the financial crisis. Despite the positive economic performance, investors' expectations for rate hike remain insufficient due to insufficient market communication. In this tightening cycle. The Federal Reserve rate hike six times, a total of 175 basis points to 6.5%, followed by the bursting of the tech stock bubble in 2001.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd87934f15918042582b3b2ad24d8c\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. 2004.6-2006.6: Real estate cooling down</b></p><p><b>The stock market crash and terrorist attacks prompted the Federal Reserve to ease significantly.</b>Between 2000 and 2002, the tech bubble burst, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell by 85%, and business investment contracted sharply. To prevent a deeper recession, on January 3, 2001, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan unexpectedly announced a rate cut of 0.50% to 6%. Before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, interest rates were cut six times and four times respectively, bringing the total to 11 in 2001. By June 2003, interest rates had fallen from 6.5% to 1%, a level that remained unchanged until June 2004.</p><p><b>Economic recovery and rising home prices have raised concerns about asset bubbles, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate hike process.</b>As interest rates remained low for a long time, home prices fluctuated upwards, rising 52% from their 2001 low in mid-2004. The S&P 500 also continued to rebound, rising 37% from its 2002 low. This has raised market concerns about asset bubbles and real estate bubbles. During this period, the unemployment rate remained below 6% and continued to decline, while the CPI gradually rose, fluctuating above the 2% target range, which strengthened the Fed's determination to rate hike. The market prepared for the tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006. In June 2004, the Federal Reserve raised its rate hike by 25 basis points to 1.25%. In 2006, Ben Bernanke became Chairman of the Federal Reserve and continued to tighten the tightening cycle. This round saw 17 rate hike, raising the price by 425 basis points to 5.25%. In the first half of 2007, the Federal Reserve realized that the subprime mortgage crisis was beginning to emerge, and the current rate hike cycle ended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35db37e6cda7628c686df1c39f3bfda6\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. December 2015-December 2018: Normalization of monetary policy after the Great Recession</b></p><p><b>Following the long-term zero interest rate and QE policies, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing monetary policy.</b>In August 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to lower its Federal Funds rate. In January 2008, with the stock market crash and the risk of economic recession increasing, the FOMC cut interest rates urgently, starting a nine-year path of global monetary easing. At the end of 2008, the United States introduced an aggressive zero interest rate policy, and the benchmark interest rate has remained at 0%-0.25% ever since. As the economy gradually emerges from the crisis, the U.S. labor market continues to recover, with the unemployment rate falling from a high of 10% in 2009 to around 5%. In mid-2015, the Federal Reserve judged that the jobs gap was 100,000 jobs per month, while at that time the economy was actually creating more than 200,000 new jobs per month. Therefore, the Fed judged that the economy had achieved a substantial recovery. Meanwhile, inflation remained fluctuating around 2%. At the end of the same year, the Federal Reserve began its first rate hike. By December 2018, there had been nine rate hike of 225 basis points, and the Federal Funds rate had risen to the 2.5% level.</p><p><b>rate hike was cautious in the early stages, but accelerated and even became more aggressive in the later stages.</b>At the beginning of the rate hike in 2015, the Federal Reserve was relatively cautious and only conducted its second rate hike in December 2016, a year after the first rate hike, which was significantly lower than previously expected by the market. However, from 2017 to 2018, the Federal Reserve's rate hike accelerated significantly. Yellen tightened its stance three times in 2017, and Powell further increased it after taking office. There were four rate hike throughout 2018, especially at the end of 2018 when US stocks plummeted, when it still chose to tighten further. Its hawkishness far exceeded market expectations. Subsequently, as the US economy weakened and financial markets fluctuated, this rate hike cycle ended in the third quarter of 2019.</p><p><b>The subprime mortgage crisis and the Great Recession prompted the Federal Reserve to further strengthen its market communication of monetary policy.</b>Starting in 2008, Bernanke began holding press conferences and giving television interviews after each FOMC meeting. During this rate hike cycle, the transparency of monetary policy has increased significantly, forward-looking guidance has received attention, and market expectations have been guided to some extent. Even so, the tapering still triggered global market turmoil in the early stages due to the unprecedented extent of the previous easing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd666cff53f12a23befc4e361d0e367\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>7. Which year is 2022 more like? Combining multiple characteristics</b></p><p><b>Supply shocks, soaring prices, overheated demand, and policy normalization all seem to be manifesting in this rate hike cycle. The initial phase may be most similar to 2004, with rate hike not slowing down in the short term, but the pace in the second half of the year remains uncertain.</b>The current rate hike cycle is highly complex, and the current macroeconomic background seems to share some of the core characteristics of the previous six cycles. For example, supply chain disruptions and rising energy prices are very similar to those of the 1980s (but have not yet entered stagflation). Price growth has reached a record high in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to respond, much like the cooling of housing prices in 2004. With government subsidies, consumption boomed and the stock market surged, similar to the overheating before 2000; Finally, from the perspective of policy normalization, the characteristics of 2015 are also inescapable. In the short term, since the Federal Reserve's core goal is to curb inflation expectations, which is relatively consistent with dealing with the overheated real estate market environment in 2004, we believe that short-term rate hike is likely to proceed rapidly. However, the pace in the second half of the year still depends on the marginal changes in the aforementioned issues.</p><p>Risk warning: Economic growth may fall short of expectations, and policy withdrawals may exceed expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w\">文涛宏观债券研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK1148":"建筑与工程","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","09979":"绿城管理控股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cV0BWDN9oRzbI9gtOI2t_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213609052","content_text":"核心观点美联储加息和缩表是今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响。第一篇回顾历次加息的基本情况。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。1．1983.3-1984.9：石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。2.1987.1-1989.7：通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。这一时期美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。3.1994.2-1995.2：衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。随后联储加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。这一时期，美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。4.1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机波及下，联储降息应对。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，随之而来的是科网泡沫破裂。5.2004.6-2006.6：2001年，随着股市暴跌引发衰退，美联储大幅降息。此后经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储再次开启加息进程。6.2015.12-2018.12：长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。鹰派程度大超市场预期。本轮加息更像哪一年？供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代有共同之处；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温相似；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需看上述问题边际变化。正文美联储加息和缩表成为今年海外市场的核心交易逻辑，同时也是影响国内政策、资产走势的重要外部约束。为此，我们推出美联储紧缩系列报告，系统梳理20世纪80年代以来的历次紧缩进程及市场影响，为今年走势的判断提供借鉴。系列第一篇，首先简单回顾历次加息的基本情况，包括背景、所面临的经济金融形势及政策考虑。过去四十年，美联储共有6次加息周期，包括上世纪80年代著名的沃尔克对抗通胀。上世纪80年代以来，美联储共有6次显著的加息周期，分别是1983-84、1987-89、1993-95、1999-00、2004-06及2015-17。上世纪70-80年代，美国货币政策处于激烈变动期，凯恩斯主义、货币主义、理性预期理论各领风骚，为应对长期的滞涨问题，美联储主席沃尔克执行了坚定的货币紧缩。进入90年代，高通胀的担忧彻底解除，格林斯潘执掌下的美联储货币政策主要基于泰勒规则，对经济周期和通胀进行调节。90年代末至21世纪，全球金融市场不断动荡，历次危机中美联储都积极降息，而其后的加息周期主要是对此前危机宽松政策的撤回。2015年，耶伦领导下的美联储在全球金融危机和大衰退后消退后实施了货币政策正常化。2020-21年，全球货币宽松程度史上前所未见，当前美国面临经济的强劲复苏和通胀连创新高，市场对美联储连续和快速加息的预期强烈。这些加息周期的类型丰富，既有供给端压力导致的高通胀，地产、股票带来的泡沫压力，也有非常规政策实施后的正常化过程。由于当下加息周期的复杂性，几乎同时包含了高通胀、供应链断裂、经济下行、股价房价高位等多重因素，上述加息历史具有宝贵参考信息。1. 1983.3-1984.9：原油供给冲击带来的滞胀困局石油供给冲击叠加政策目标模糊，美国进入滞胀的恶性循环。20世纪60-70年代，美元体系不断动荡。伴随着1973-1975年和1979-1982年两次石油危机和两伊战争，全球石油产量缩减，工业原材料价格上涨，商业投资放缓，生产率下降，美国与世界其他国家的贸易平衡恶化。美国通胀持续达两位数而就业不振，陷入长期滞涨的困境。1964年，美国通胀率1%，失业率5%，此后一路上行，到1980年，通货膨胀率接近14.5%，失业率超过7.5% 。70年代，美联储在凯恩斯“相机抉择”的思想指导下，不断在控制通胀和保就业两方面权衡，造成货币政策目标不清晰，控制通胀的努力“走走停停”（stop-go），公众对经济和政府政策的信心不断下降，通胀预期高企导致经济行为发生扭曲。直到通胀和失业率最终都达到令人无法接受的高位。沃尔克上任联储主席后，将控制通胀作为核心目标，推行强硬紧缩政策。在长达十数年的“滞涨时代”背景下，1979年8月保罗·沃尔克就任美联储主席，决心结束美联储相机抉择、走走停停的政策，将控制通货膨胀作为最重要目标，特别是其解决带来的国际收支平衡问题。沃尔克的政策思路可以分为两阶段，80年代初严控货币增量，随后转向加息。1979-1981年，沃尔克遵循货币主义的思想，以降低货币供给量为中介目标，对信贷进行严格控制，导致联邦基金利率大幅波动，在1980年达到20%的高点，并在当年引发自大萧条以来美国最严重的经济衰退，失业率达到近11%的峰值，一直持续到1982年11月。制造业、建筑业和汽车业受到的影响尤为严重。住宅建筑业和汽车制造业年底分别失业22%和24%随着失业率的上升，美联储的政策略微有所放松。但随着1980年下半年经济出现企稳迹象，美联储继续强力收紧货币供给，联邦基金利率再次冲上20%，由于市场预期美联储无法承受失业率上升压力，长期利率仍持续上升，反映了通胀预期的恶化。此时，沃尔克保持了绝对的政策定力，坚定美联储不会让步，保持限制货币和信贷增长的既定路线不变。1982年，美联储重新将目标转向联邦基金利率，并首次开始公布其利率目标，以引导市场预期。但通胀继续走低，到经济衰退结束时，通胀率回落到5%以下。随着时间的推移，美联储对低通胀的承诺赢得了公信力，失业率回落，经济进入了一个持续增长和稳定的时期。随着经济走出衰退，1983年3月-1984年9月，美联储继续实施加息以稳固通胀预期，在1983-1984年间持续加息13次，共加息275基点，此后美国通胀率基本维持在5%以下，标志着大通胀时代结束。2. 1987.1-1989.7：应对通胀上行和美元贬值通胀控制逐步成为联储政策目标，泰勒规则逐步引入，明确了高通胀与加息的正向关系。20世纪80年代中期以后，美国经济进入长达20年的低通胀、高增长的“大缓和”时期（the Great Moderation）。该时期美联储货币政策在政策规则、预期管理和政策效果方面都有所改善。美联储开始更系统地将通胀和产出缺口作为货币政策的主要考虑因素，即“泰勒规则”。当产出高于潜在水平或通胀高于目标，美联储随即采取紧缩货币政策，反之则宽松。“泰勒规则”意味着联邦基金利率增长幅度应超过通胀率增长幅度，因此通胀率上升时，美联储的应对措施更加果断和强硬。美元贬值，通胀上行，联储通过加息进行应对。1986年底-1987年中，由于里根政府持续的美元贬值以促进贸易的政策，导致美国国内通胀再次快速走高，从低于2%飚升至4%以上，而失业率总体趋势已连续5年稳中有降。1987年初，美联储开始提高利率以对抗通胀，1-9月利率从5.8%升至7.3%。1987年8月，格林斯潘就任美联储主席，10月，美股爆发“黑色星期一”，股市一天内暴跌20%。为了救市，格林斯潘宣布联邦基金利率紧急下调50基点至6.75%，1988年利率继续下降到6.5%。但这场危机是短暂的，到年底股市迅速反弹，经济也随即复苏。美联储继续提高利率以缓解通胀和美元贬值压力，到1989年本轮加息周期结束，共计加息21次344个基点，联邦基金利率升至9.3%。3. 1994.2-1995.2：防经济过热衰退后快速反弹，经济和股市出现过热苗头。1990-1991，美国经济再度进入衰退。联邦基金目标利率从9%降至1992年3%，并持续维持低位。此后，随着经济改善，失业率持续降低，通胀也保持低位，美联储于1994年初再度开启加息周期。在91年前后的衰退中复苏比较快，GDP季度增长率从负值反弹至4%-5%，10年期国债收益率出现抬头趋势，股市飙升，标普500在1991年至1994年间上涨47%，金融市场出现过热倾向。加息节奏超市场预期，债券市场大幅动荡。尽管市场对加息已有广泛预期，但由于通胀率始终维持在3%左右的市场低位，6.5%的失业率也尚未回到衰退前水平，因此1994年的加息周期在加息的时间和幅度方面仍出乎投资者意料。1994年4月，利率从3.50%紧急提高到3.75%。此后，出于对经济过热和通胀上升的担忧，美联储改变了其每次加息25基点的渐进方法，采取了更为激进的方法，每次加息50-75基点，直至1995年2月，联邦基金利率上升到6.00%，共计加息7次300个基点。美联储较市场预期的紧缩幅度更大，速度也更快。利率的超预期上升引发债券市场动荡，被媒体戏称为“债券市场大屠杀”。在随后的9个月里，10年期美国国债利率上升了220基点，抵押贷款利率也随之上升。世界范围内的破产率急剧上升，加州奥兰治县（Orange County）当时是美国历史上最大的市政破产案。墨西哥和阿根廷也走向金融危机。美联储结束加息周期。美联储开始增加通胀预期的引导。这一时期，美联储在政策沟通方面有所提升。此前，格林斯潘从未公布任何FOMC会议声明和材料，以保留政策灵活性，不必受此前声明的束缚。90年代，随着理性预期学派在政策制定领域影响扩大，FOMC于1994年2月首次正式官方宣布其政策变动。此后，联储在声明中开始明确利率目标，从而管理通胀预期，并将美联储意外之举造成的破坏降至最低。4. 1999.6-2000.5：亚洲金融危机后的宽松到收紧亚洲金融危机波及，联储降息应对。为应对东南亚金融危机危机、俄罗斯债务违约和长期资本管理公司（LTCM）破产对市场的猛烈冲击，美联储在1998年夏季和初秋将利率从5.5%下调至4.75%。尽管金融市场出现了巨大的波动，但上述事件对实体经济影响不大，经济继续强劲增长。美国经济开始腾飞，工资上涨，进口激增，个人消费大幅增长，CPI超过2%的政策目标，失业率持续降至4%附近。东亚和欧洲经济也显示出复苏的迹象，甚至南美经济也有所改善。互联网经济蓬勃发展，科技股大幅上涨，纳斯达克指数从1997年的740点一路走高，至2000年3月站上5030的高点。联储收回宽松，科网泡沫破裂。1999年6月，美联储决定撤回其货币政策宽松政策并开始加息，实际上是收回一年前金融危机最严重时的降息幅度。尽管经济走势良好，但由于市场沟通不足，投资者对加息的预期仍不充分。在这一紧缩周期。美联储加息6次，共175个基点到6.5%，紧随而来的是2001年的科技股泡沫破裂。5. 2004.6-2006.6：房地产降温股市暴跌和恐怖袭击事件促使联储大幅宽松。2000年至2002年间，科技泡沫破灭，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌了85%，商业投资急剧收缩。为了防止更严重的衰退，2001年1月3日，美联储主席格林斯潘出人意料地宣布降息0.50%至6%。9·11恐怖袭击前后又分别进行了6次和4次降息，2001年共降息11次，到2003年6月，利率已从6.5%降至1%，并一直保持到2004年6月。经济复苏和房价上涨引发资产泡沫担忧，联储开启加息进程。随着利率长期保持低位，房价震荡上升，2004年中较2001年低点上涨52%，标普500指数亦持续反弹，较2002年低点回升37%。引发市场对资产泡沫、房地产泡沫的担忧。这段时期失业率维持在6%以下并持续下降，同时CPI逐渐抬头，震荡走高至2%的目标区间以上，加大了联储加息的决心。市场为2004年至2006年的紧缩周期做好了准备。2004年6月，联储加息25个基点至1.25%，2006年伯南克就任美联储主席，继续紧缩周期，本轮共加息17次，425个基点至5.25%。2007年上半年，美联储意识到次贷危机初现端倪，本轮加息周期结束。6. 2015.12-2018.12：“大衰退”后的货币政策正常化长期零利率和QE政策后，美联储开始货币政策正常化过程。2007年8月，次贷危机促使美联储开始下调联邦基金利率，2008年1月随着股市崩盘，经济衰退风险增加，FOMC紧急降息，开启了9年的全球货币宽松之路。2008年底，美国出台了激进的零利率政策，此后基准利率一直维持在0%-0.25%的水平。随着经济逐渐从危机中走出，美国劳动力市场持续复苏，失业率从09年高点的10%降至5%左右。2015年中，美联储判断就业缺口为每月10万个就业岗位，而当时经济实际每月新增就业岗位超20万，因此美联储判断经济已经实现实质性的复苏。与此同时，通胀水平维持在2%上下区间震荡。同年底，联储开始首次加息，至2018年12月，共加息9次225个基点，联邦基金利率升至2.5%一线。前期加息节奏谨慎，后期明显加快甚至激进。2015年正式开启加息初期，联储态度较为谨慎，在2016年12月才进行第二次加息，与首次加息前后时隔一年，大幅低于此前的市场预期。然而，2017-2018年，美联储的加息速度明显加快，耶伦在2017年加息3次，随后鲍威尔上任后进一步加码，2018年全年四次加息，尤其是在美股大跌的2018年底仍然选择了进一步紧缩，鹰派程度大超市场预期。此后，随着美国经济走弱、金融市场波动，本轮加息周期至2019年3季度结束。次贷危机和大衰退促成了美联储在货币政策的市场沟通方面进一步加强。2008年起，伯南克开始在每次FOMC会议后主持召开新闻发布会，并接受电视采访。在本轮加息周期中，货币政策透明度大幅提升，前瞻性指引受到重视，市场预期在一定程度上得到引导。即便如此，由于此前的宽松幅度前所未有，缩减在开始的初期仍引发了全球市场动荡。7、2022年更像哪一年？兼具多种特点供给冲击、物价飙升、需求过热、政策正常化等特征似乎都在本轮加息周期中呈现，初期可能最像2004年，短期加息速度不会慢，但下半年节奏仍有不确定性。本轮加息周期的复杂性较高，目前的宏观背景似乎兼具此前6轮周期中的一些核心特点。例如，供应链的损坏、能源价格的上涨，与1980年代极为相似（但目前尚未进入滞胀）；物价增速已经创下过去几十年的新高，美联储被迫进行应对，这与2004年为房价降温如出一辙；政府补贴下，消费火热，股市大涨，这与2000年前夕过热有雷同；最后，政策正常化角度看，也逃不开2015年的特征。短期来看，由于联储核心诉求就是抑制通胀预期，这与应对2004年房地产市场过热的环境相对一致，我们判断短期加息大概率快速进行。但下半年节奏仍需要看上述问题的边际变化。风险提示：经济增长不达预期，政策退出超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TNmain":0.9,"09979":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.6,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093480904,"gmtCreate":1643685838224,"gmtModify":1676533844185,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3557375403451824","authorIdStr":"3557375403451824"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093480904","repostId":"1121905464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121905464","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642411108,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121905464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-17 17:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121905464","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are advised to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Stock Connect service will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A list of major market closures during the Spring Festival holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-17 17:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>With the Lunar New Year holiday approaching, the opening and closing times of some exchanges have changed. Investors are advised to pay close attention.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aef2112c6fa0ba265b518492f29cb15\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1085\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Thursday, February 3, 2022.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Australian stocks:</b></p><p>The market will reopen as usual.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Monday, January 31, 2022: Half-day trading, closed in the afternoon.</p><p>The market is closed from Tuesday, February 1 to Wednesday, February 2, 2022.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>The Stock Connect service will not be available from Thursday, January 27 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p>No service from Monday, January 31 to Friday, February 4, 2022.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752af43ca78e3ed4d3be0dbeaf4ea23c","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121905464","content_text":"农历新年假期即将来临，部分交易所的开市和收市时间有所变动，敬请各位投资者密切留意。港股：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月3日（星期四）休市。美股：照常开市。A股：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）休市。澳股：照常开市。新加坡市场：2022年1月31日（星期一）半日交易，下午休市。2022年2月1日（星期二）至2月2日（星期三）休市。港股通：2022年1月27日（星期四）至2月4日（星期五）不提供港股通服务。沪股通、深股通：2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。2022年1月31日（星期一）至2月4日（星期五）不提供服务。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"STI.SI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}