The biggest banks in the US released their Q3 earnings over the past few days. Revenue and earnings were up in most cases, beating analysts’ expectations. Are bank boom times back?
Mixed Earnings
- JPMorgan Chase: The Jamie Dimon-led firm reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $3.12 on revenue of $2.88. Both numbers exceeded consensus analysts of $2.88 and $32.1 billion, respectively. Revenue was up 10% compared to a year ago. The earnings beat was driven by a 34% year-over-year rise in net interest income. The New York-based company's shares traded higher by 2.7% following the report.
- Bank of America: Under the helm of CEO Brian Moynihan, Bank of America reported profit of $7.1 billion, or 81 cents a share, coming in ahead of the $6.4 billion, or 78 cents a share forecast by analysts surveyed. Revenue of $24.5 billion topped expectations of $23.5 billion. Much of the gain in revenue was due to net interest income climbing 24% to $13.8 billion.
- Wells Fargo: Reported adjusted EPS of 85 cents, missing consensus analyst estimates of $1.09. Quarterly revenue of $19.5 billion beat analyst expectations of $18.7 billion. Revenue was up 4% from a year ago. Wells Fargo, led by CEO Charles Scharf, attributed the earnings miss to a $784 million increase in loan loss reserves. The San Francisco-based bank's shares traded higher by 3.3% following the report.
- Morgan Stanley: Reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.53, beating consensus analyst estimates of $1.50. The New York-based bank, under CEO James Gorman, reported quarterly revenue of $12.9 billion, missing consensus estimates of $13.3 billion. Revenue was down 12% from a year ago. The company's overall growth numbers were dragged down by a 55% drop in investment banking revenue in the quarter. Morgan Stanley shares traded lower by 4.4% following the report.
- Goldman Sachs: The David Michael Solomon-led firm Profits at the investment bank were down 43% from the year-ago quarter, reflecting a sharp drop in advisory and underwriting revenue, which is drying up across the industry. Goldman Sachs earned $3.1 billion, or $8.25 a share, comfortably better than the $2.8 billion, or $7.75 a share, projected by analysts surveyed. Revenue of $11.9 billion was down 21% year over year but ahead of the $11.4 billion expected by analysts.
- Citigroup: Under the helm of CEO Jane Fraser, Citigroup reported adjusted EPS of $1.50 on revenue of $18.5 billion. Both numbers exceeded analyst estimates of $1.42 and $18.2 billion, respectively. Revenue was up 6% from 2021. The New York-based bank's net income fell 25% year-over-year, driven partly by a $370 million net increase in loan loss reserves. Citigroup shares traded higher by 1.7% on Friday.
"Rising borrowing costs, which are boosting net interest income, are working as a sort of parachute for the banks, while the slowing economy is still robust to handle the pain," said Guido Petrelli, Founder and CEO of Merlin Investor.
A jump in interest rates typically translates into higher profitability for banks, which earn on the difference between interest paid on deposits and that collected on loans.
Prepare for a tough economic climate
Revenue and earnings were up in most cases, beating analysts’ expectations. But the looming recession looks closer than ever, and banks are preparing. Here are the common themes we saw:
Theme 1: Profits mostly tumbled again
Similar to Q2, US banks saw their profits fall year-over-year in the most recent quarter.
- Goldman Sachs' profit dropped 43%.
- Wells Fargo saw a 31% profit decline.
- Morgan Stanley’s profit decreased by 29%.
- Citigroup’s profit fell by 25%.
- JPMorgan fared slightly better with a 17% decrease.
- Bank of America saw the smallest profit decline of 8%.
Theme 2: Loan delinquency is low, but loan loss provisions are high
Nearly all banks stated their falling profits were a result of setting aside large sums of money to cover potential losses from loan defaults. But many banks said that the low employment rates have allowed customers and businesses to continue to repay their loans, and currently loan delinquencies are low. The move to set aside credit provisions is fueled by the economic downturn trending toward a recession.
- JPMorgan added $1.5 billion, including a net reserve build of $808 million.
- Wells Fargo set aside $784 million.
- Bank of America reserved $898 million, including a net reserve build of $378 million.
- Citigroup set aside $1.37 billion, including a net reserve build of $370 million.
Theme 3: Personal banking boosted revenues, but investment banking took a beating
Increasing interest rates proved to be beneficial for US banks, as interest income drove revenue in Q3. But the downturn in M&A activity and debt and equity financing led to slumping investment banking performance.
- Citigroup saw a 10% increase in personal banking revenue YoY, a clear result of rising interest rates. But its investment banking arm reported a 60% decrease in revenue YoY.
- JPMorgan also saw a 10% revenue increase as it expanded its loan book in the quarter.
- Morgan Stanley took a rough hit to its investment management (revenue down 20%) and investment banking (revenue down 55%) businesses, citing a slow quarter for IPOs and minimal debt and equity issuances.
- Bank of America saw its loan book grow by 12% YoY, along with a 12% rise in personal banking revenue driven by increased interest rates. The bank also cited strong returns from fixed income trading activities.
What does all this mean for investors?
So far, at least, banks seem to be winners.
A change in interest rate policy means a potential change in stocks and sectors that will perform well. Low interest rates favor high growth industries like tech, as borrowed money is cheap and plentiful.
As interest rates grow, more traditional sectors like banking can benefit, as we’ve seen so far in this quarter's earnings calls.
In an environment like that, value stocks can be a potential area to consider. Value investing is basically looking for secure, stable businesses that have the potential to be undervalued. Warren Buffet is the most famous example of a value investor, and Bank of America currently holds the 2nd largest position in his Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.
The problem is whether we all have the time, skills and resources of Warren Buffet.
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