“暂时性”高通胀到底会持续多久？几个指标或许能提供线索

彭博环球财经2021-05-13

长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

dwh790101
2021-05-14
dwh790101
暫時的而已
- 飞鸟跌穴298884:
  互评888～??
飞鸟跌穴298884
2021-05-14
飞鸟跌穴298884
??
- 隨缘呗:
  [惊讶]??
- xiaohei85:
  [惊讶]
- 飞鸟跌穴298884:
  互评互助恭喜发财～???
- dwh790101:
  [微笑]
ccssyy
2021-05-14
ccssyy
一年
- ccssyy:
  好
- dwh790101:
  [微笑]
SunnyLeo
2021-05-14
SunnyLeo
一兩年？
- SunnyLeo:
  ???
吉星lily
2021-05-14
吉星lily
[流淚]
打打小猫
2021-05-14
打打小猫
我覺得會持續下去，很久很久
- SunnyLeo:
  别这么悲观嘛?

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184785046?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26d2e743adbb3b7a16bc81651b06c89","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-05-13 09:36","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1184785046","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"“暂时性”高通胀到底会持续多久？几个指标或许能提供线索","media":"彭博环球财经","content":"<div>\n长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高...\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1568765252508","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“暂时性”高通胀到底会持续多久？几个指标或许能提供线索</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“暂时性”高通胀到底会持续多久？几个指标或许能提供线索\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-13 09:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA>彭博环球财经</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高...\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA","article_id":"1184785046","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26d2e743adbb3b7a16bc81651b06c89"],"rights":{"source":"lsy1568765252508","url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184785046","pubTimestamp":1620869787,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1568765252508","name":"彭博环球财经"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"How long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b41d768e9f4db8bfac4ad02f0af3c58","symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高水平。根据美国银行的数据，最近一轮美国企业业绩电话会议上，通胀一词成为流行词，出现次数比一年前增加了800%。尽管上周的非农就业报告中显示4月份新增就业只有经济学家预期的四分之一，但市场普遍将数据视为企业必须提高工资以填补职位空缺的信号。美国银行美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian上周五表示，“通货膨胀风险是我们要关注的，我不知道它们是否只是暂时的”.4月CPI数据的飙升令美债市场5年通胀预期提升至2005年以来的最高水平。CPI环比增长0.8％，高于经济学家预期的0.2％；同比升幅4.2％，高于预期的3.6％。10年期美国国债收益率在数据发布后上涨五个基点，至1.67％。通货膨胀担忧日益加剧对拜登庞大的刺激计划构成政治威胁，尤其是在上周五令人失望的非农就业数据发布后。但是美联储决策者不为所动，最近几周就连几位鹰派官员也说，即使财政刺激规模史无前例，通货膨胀也不太可能失去控制。美联储主席鲍威尔和拜登政府经济顾问表示，现在一些领域出现的通货膨胀是“暂时性”的。这就产生了一个重要的问题：所谓 “暂时性”到底意味着多长时间？目前来看，答案很可能是未知的，但以往几次的衰退可能为人们提供一些线索。经济衰退后的大宗商品如果最近的价格上涨主要是由大宗商品驱动的，那么这取决于大宗商品涨势能持续多长时间。以2009年经济回升为路线图，对原材料的需求以及大宗商品价格的高涨持续了两年，全球通货膨胀升势维持到大宗商品市场见顶回落才停止。这些价格上涨很大程度上是由庞大的中国基础设施建设推动的。这次，随着拜登政府巨额基建计划的推出，美国变成了十多年前的中国。按照这种逻辑，所谓“暂时性”可能意味着两年。电脑芯片短缺但是，木材和铜等原材料并不是可能加剧通胀的唯一因素。用于手机 、汽车、冰箱等一切电子产品的芯片也将发挥重要作用。由于芯片短缺，本田，宝马和其他汽车制造商被迫停产。鉴于芯片的重要性，由30个成分股组成的费城半导体指数与债市10年盈亏平衡通胀率呈现正相关也就不足为奇了。过去的一年，这两个指标一直保持同向。二手车周三公布的数据显示，芯片短缺导致的新车生产放缓引发二手车和卡车价格4月份大涨10%。Nordea Investment Funds SA的高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示 ，买不起高价车的消费者需求的释放令二手车价格飙涨。曼海姆二手车价值指数显示它们已比去年年底上涨20%。盈亏平衡通胀率债券市场已经察觉了通胀压力，它所反映的通货膨胀预期对投资者的预测有影响。衡量未来十年通胀预期的10年盈亏平衡通胀率约为2.57％，接近2013年3月以来最高水平。周三，5年盈亏平衡通胀率达到2.82％，是2005年以来的最高水平。可以肯定的是，并非所有市场参与者都同意来自债券市场的通胀信号。高盛和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)估计，债券交易员对未来几年3%的年通胀率预期过于激进。薪资压力一些投资者，策略师和政界人士认为，远低于预期的就业数据传递出一个真正的信息是企业雇佣成本将上升。部分原因是政府增加了失业救济金，这使雇主之前开出的工资吸引力降低了。任何薪资上升压力都可能反映到商品和服务的价格中，从而进一步提高通货膨胀率。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":198858708,"gmtCreate":1620952251504,"gmtModify":1704350967805,"author":{"id":"3495252398666385","authorId":"3495252398666385","name":"dwh790101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa8ecad30f97a85a2c39efed09e6d26","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3495252398666385","authorIdStr":"3495252398666385"},"htmlText":"暫時的而已","listText":"暫時的而已","text":"暫時的而已","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198858708","repostId":1184785046,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184785046","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620869787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184785046?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 09:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184785046","media":"彭博环球财经","summary":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超","content":"<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"lsy1568765252508","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n彭博环球财经2021-05-13 09:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA\">彭博环球财经</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26d2e743adbb3b7a16bc81651b06c89","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184785046","content_text":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高水平。根据美国银行的数据，最近一轮美国企业业绩电话会议上，通胀一词成为流行词，出现次数比一年前增加了800%。尽管上周的非农就业报告中显示4月份新增就业只有经济学家预期的四分之一，但市场普遍将数据视为企业必须提高工资以填补职位空缺的信号。美国银行美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian上周五表示，“通货膨胀风险是我们要关注的，我不知道它们是否只是暂时的”.4月CPI数据的飙升令美债市场5年通胀预期提升至2005年以来的最高水平。CPI环比增长0.8％，高于经济学家预期的0.2％；同比升幅4.2％，高于预期的3.6％。10年期美国国债收益率在数据发布后上涨五个基点，至1.67％。通货膨胀担忧日益加剧对拜登庞大的刺激计划构成政治威胁，尤其是在上周五令人失望的非农就业数据发布后。但是美联储决策者不为所动，最近几周就连几位鹰派官员也说，即使财政刺激规模史无前例，通货膨胀也不太可能失去控制。美联储主席鲍威尔和拜登政府经济顾问表示，现在一些领域出现的通货膨胀是“暂时性”的。这就产生了一个重要的问题：所谓 “暂时性”到底意味着多长时间？目前来看，答案很可能是未知的，但以往几次的衰退可能为人们提供一些线索。经济衰退后的大宗商品如果最近的价格上涨主要是由大宗商品驱动的，那么这取决于大宗商品涨势能持续多长时间。以2009年经济回升为路线图，对原材料的需求以及大宗商品价格的高涨持续了两年，全球通货膨胀升势维持到大宗商品市场见顶回落才停止。这些价格上涨很大程度上是由庞大的中国基础设施建设推动的。这次，随着拜登政府巨额基建计划的推出，美国变成了十多年前的中国。按照这种逻辑，所谓“暂时性”可能意味着两年。电脑芯片短缺但是，木材和铜等原材料并不是可能加剧通胀的唯一因素。用于手机 、汽车、冰箱等一切电子产品的芯片也将发挥重要作用。由于芯片短缺，本田，宝马和其他汽车制造商被迫停产。鉴于芯片的重要性，由30个成分股组成的费城半导体指数与债市10年盈亏平衡通胀率呈现正相关也就不足为奇了。过去的一年，这两个指标一直保持同向。二手车周三公布的数据显示，芯片短缺导致的新车生产放缓引发二手车和卡车价格4月份大涨10%。Nordea Investment Funds SA的高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示 ，买不起高价车的消费者需求的释放令二手车价格飙涨。曼海姆二手车价值指数显示它们已比去年年底上涨20%。盈亏平衡通胀率债券市场已经察觉了通胀压力，它所反映的通货膨胀预期对投资者的预测有影响。衡量未来十年通胀预期的10年盈亏平衡通胀率约为2.57％，接近2013年3月以来最高水平。周三，5年盈亏平衡通胀率达到2.82％，是2005年以来的最高水平。可以肯定的是，并非所有市场参与者都同意来自债券市场的通胀信号。高盛和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)估计，债券交易员对未来几年3%的年通胀率预期过于激进。薪资压力一些投资者，策略师和政界人士认为，远低于预期的就业数据传递出一个真正的信息是企业雇佣成本将上升。部分原因是政府增加了失业救济金，这使雇主之前开出的工资吸引力降低了。任何薪资上升压力都可能反映到商品和服务的价格中，从而进一步提高通货膨胀率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4320874,"gmtCreate":1620952505464,"gmtModify":1680788651665,"authorId":3574164671299178,"author":{"id":3574164671299178,"idStr":"3574164671299178","authorId":3574164671299178,"name":"飞鸟跌穴298884","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a86a1d7644d8cfdcbb622860fd749e7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198858708,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"互评888～??","text":"互评888～??","html":"互评888～??"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198868842,"gmtCreate":1620951444186,"gmtModify":1704350938003,"author":{"id":"3574164671299178","authorId":"3574164671299178","name":"飞鸟跌穴298884","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a86a1d7644d8cfdcbb622860fd749e7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574164671299178","authorIdStr":"3574164671299178"},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198868842","repostId":1184785046,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184785046","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620869787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184785046?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 09:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184785046","media":"彭博环球财经","summary":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超","content":"<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"lsy1568765252508","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n彭博环球财经2021-05-13 09:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA\">彭博环球财经</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26d2e743adbb3b7a16bc81651b06c89","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184785046","content_text":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高水平。根据美国银行的数据，最近一轮美国企业业绩电话会议上，通胀一词成为流行词，出现次数比一年前增加了800%。尽管上周的非农就业报告中显示4月份新增就业只有经济学家预期的四分之一，但市场普遍将数据视为企业必须提高工资以填补职位空缺的信号。美国银行美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian上周五表示，“通货膨胀风险是我们要关注的，我不知道它们是否只是暂时的”.4月CPI数据的飙升令美债市场5年通胀预期提升至2005年以来的最高水平。CPI环比增长0.8％，高于经济学家预期的0.2％；同比升幅4.2％，高于预期的3.6％。10年期美国国债收益率在数据发布后上涨五个基点，至1.67％。通货膨胀担忧日益加剧对拜登庞大的刺激计划构成政治威胁，尤其是在上周五令人失望的非农就业数据发布后。但是美联储决策者不为所动，最近几周就连几位鹰派官员也说，即使财政刺激规模史无前例，通货膨胀也不太可能失去控制。美联储主席鲍威尔和拜登政府经济顾问表示，现在一些领域出现的通货膨胀是“暂时性”的。这就产生了一个重要的问题：所谓 “暂时性”到底意味着多长时间？目前来看，答案很可能是未知的，但以往几次的衰退可能为人们提供一些线索。经济衰退后的大宗商品如果最近的价格上涨主要是由大宗商品驱动的，那么这取决于大宗商品涨势能持续多长时间。以2009年经济回升为路线图，对原材料的需求以及大宗商品价格的高涨持续了两年，全球通货膨胀升势维持到大宗商品市场见顶回落才停止。这些价格上涨很大程度上是由庞大的中国基础设施建设推动的。这次，随着拜登政府巨额基建计划的推出，美国变成了十多年前的中国。按照这种逻辑，所谓“暂时性”可能意味着两年。电脑芯片短缺但是，木材和铜等原材料并不是可能加剧通胀的唯一因素。用于手机 、汽车、冰箱等一切电子产品的芯片也将发挥重要作用。由于芯片短缺，本田，宝马和其他汽车制造商被迫停产。鉴于芯片的重要性，由30个成分股组成的费城半导体指数与债市10年盈亏平衡通胀率呈现正相关也就不足为奇了。过去的一年，这两个指标一直保持同向。二手车周三公布的数据显示，芯片短缺导致的新车生产放缓引发二手车和卡车价格4月份大涨10%。Nordea Investment Funds SA的高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示 ，买不起高价车的消费者需求的释放令二手车价格飙涨。曼海姆二手车价值指数显示它们已比去年年底上涨20%。盈亏平衡通胀率债券市场已经察觉了通胀压力，它所反映的通货膨胀预期对投资者的预测有影响。衡量未来十年通胀预期的10年盈亏平衡通胀率约为2.57％，接近2013年3月以来最高水平。周三，5年盈亏平衡通胀率达到2.82％，是2005年以来的最高水平。可以肯定的是，并非所有市场参与者都同意来自债券市场的通胀信号。高盛和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)估计，债券交易员对未来几年3%的年通胀率预期过于激进。薪资压力一些投资者，策略师和政界人士认为，远低于预期的就业数据传递出一个真正的信息是企业雇佣成本将上升。部分原因是政府增加了失业救济金，这使雇主之前开出的工资吸引力降低了。任何薪资上升压力都可能反映到商品和服务的价格中，从而进一步提高通货膨胀率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4321642,"gmtCreate":1620955015287,"gmtModify":1680788669679,"authorId":3578402372027784,"author":{"id":3578402372027784,"idStr":"3578402372027784","authorId":3578402372027784,"name":"隨缘呗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d112fbb709c85fd78977ffa119acab4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198868842,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[惊讶]??","text":"[惊讶]??","html":"[惊讶]??"},{"id":4321298,"gmtCreate":1620953980898,"gmtModify":1680788660650,"authorId":3580890428635856,"author":{"id":3580890428635856,"idStr":"3580890428635856","authorId":3580890428635856,"name":"xiaohei85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198868842,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","html":"[惊讶]"},{"id":4320863,"gmtCreate":1620952483332,"gmtModify":1680788652671,"authorId":3574164671299178,"author":{"id":3574164671299178,"idStr":"3574164671299178","authorId":3574164671299178,"name":"飞鸟跌穴298884","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a86a1d7644d8cfdcbb622860fd749e7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198868842,"type":1,"supId":4320805,"prevId":0,"content":"互评互助 恭喜发财～???","text":"互评互助 恭喜发财～???","html":"互评互助 恭喜发财～???"},{"id":4320805,"gmtCreate":1620952276274,"gmtModify":1680788648905,"authorId":3495252398666385,"author":{"id":3495252398666385,"idStr":"3495252398666385","authorId":3495252398666385,"name":"dwh790101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa8ecad30f97a85a2c39efed09e6d26","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198868842,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":198172429,"gmtCreate":1620949137861,"gmtModify":1704350857006,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"htmlText":"一年","listText":"一年","text":"一年","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198172429","repostId":1184785046,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184785046","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620869787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184785046?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 09:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184785046","media":"彭博环球财经","summary":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超","content":"<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"lsy1568765252508","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n彭博环球财经2021-05-13 09:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA\">彭博环球财经</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26d2e743adbb3b7a16bc81651b06c89","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184785046","content_text":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高水平。根据美国银行的数据，最近一轮美国企业业绩电话会议上，通胀一词成为流行词，出现次数比一年前增加了800%。尽管上周的非农就业报告中显示4月份新增就业只有经济学家预期的四分之一，但市场普遍将数据视为企业必须提高工资以填补职位空缺的信号。美国银行美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian上周五表示，“通货膨胀风险是我们要关注的，我不知道它们是否只是暂时的”.4月CPI数据的飙升令美债市场5年通胀预期提升至2005年以来的最高水平。CPI环比增长0.8％，高于经济学家预期的0.2％；同比升幅4.2％，高于预期的3.6％。10年期美国国债收益率在数据发布后上涨五个基点，至1.67％。通货膨胀担忧日益加剧对拜登庞大的刺激计划构成政治威胁，尤其是在上周五令人失望的非农就业数据发布后。但是美联储决策者不为所动，最近几周就连几位鹰派官员也说，即使财政刺激规模史无前例，通货膨胀也不太可能失去控制。美联储主席鲍威尔和拜登政府经济顾问表示，现在一些领域出现的通货膨胀是“暂时性”的。这就产生了一个重要的问题：所谓 “暂时性”到底意味着多长时间？目前来看，答案很可能是未知的，但以往几次的衰退可能为人们提供一些线索。经济衰退后的大宗商品如果最近的价格上涨主要是由大宗商品驱动的，那么这取决于大宗商品涨势能持续多长时间。以2009年经济回升为路线图，对原材料的需求以及大宗商品价格的高涨持续了两年，全球通货膨胀升势维持到大宗商品市场见顶回落才停止。这些价格上涨很大程度上是由庞大的中国基础设施建设推动的。这次，随着拜登政府巨额基建计划的推出，美国变成了十多年前的中国。按照这种逻辑，所谓“暂时性”可能意味着两年。电脑芯片短缺但是，木材和铜等原材料并不是可能加剧通胀的唯一因素。用于手机 、汽车、冰箱等一切电子产品的芯片也将发挥重要作用。由于芯片短缺，本田，宝马和其他汽车制造商被迫停产。鉴于芯片的重要性，由30个成分股组成的费城半导体指数与债市10年盈亏平衡通胀率呈现正相关也就不足为奇了。过去的一年，这两个指标一直保持同向。二手车周三公布的数据显示，芯片短缺导致的新车生产放缓引发二手车和卡车价格4月份大涨10%。Nordea Investment Funds SA的高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示 ，买不起高价车的消费者需求的释放令二手车价格飙涨。曼海姆二手车价值指数显示它们已比去年年底上涨20%。盈亏平衡通胀率债券市场已经察觉了通胀压力，它所反映的通货膨胀预期对投资者的预测有影响。衡量未来十年通胀预期的10年盈亏平衡通胀率约为2.57％，接近2013年3月以来最高水平。周三，5年盈亏平衡通胀率达到2.82％，是2005年以来的最高水平。可以肯定的是，并非所有市场参与者都同意来自债券市场的通胀信号。高盛和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)估计，债券交易员对未来几年3%的年通胀率预期过于激进。薪资压力一些投资者，策略师和政界人士认为，远低于预期的就业数据传递出一个真正的信息是企业雇佣成本将上升。部分原因是政府增加了失业救济金，这使雇主之前开出的工资吸引力降低了。任何薪资上升压力都可能反映到商品和服务的价格中，从而进一步提高通货膨胀率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4330627,"gmtCreate":1621034213180,"gmtModify":1680788832307,"authorId":3573688531814941,"author":{"id":3573688531814941,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorId":3573688531814941,"name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198172429,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好","text":"好","html":"好"},{"id":4320812,"gmtCreate":1620952288652,"gmtModify":1680788650906,"authorId":3495252398666385,"author":{"id":3495252398666385,"idStr":"3495252398666385","authorId":3495252398666385,"name":"dwh790101","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa8ecad30f97a85a2c39efed09e6d26","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198172429,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198120135,"gmtCreate":1620947629327,"gmtModify":1704350805767,"author":{"id":"3574831020474056","authorId":"3574831020474056","name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574831020474056","authorIdStr":"3574831020474056"},"htmlText":"一兩年？","listText":"一兩年？","text":"一兩年？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198120135","repostId":1184785046,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184785046","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620869787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184785046?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 09:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184785046","media":"彭博环球财经","summary":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超","content":"<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"lsy1568765252508","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n彭博环球财经2021-05-13 09:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA\">彭博环球财经</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26d2e743adbb3b7a16bc81651b06c89","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184785046","content_text":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高水平。根据美国银行的数据，最近一轮美国企业业绩电话会议上，通胀一词成为流行词，出现次数比一年前增加了800%。尽管上周的非农就业报告中显示4月份新增就业只有经济学家预期的四分之一，但市场普遍将数据视为企业必须提高工资以填补职位空缺的信号。美国银行美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian上周五表示，“通货膨胀风险是我们要关注的，我不知道它们是否只是暂时的”.4月CPI数据的飙升令美债市场5年通胀预期提升至2005年以来的最高水平。CPI环比增长0.8％，高于经济学家预期的0.2％；同比升幅4.2％，高于预期的3.6％。10年期美国国债收益率在数据发布后上涨五个基点，至1.67％。通货膨胀担忧日益加剧对拜登庞大的刺激计划构成政治威胁，尤其是在上周五令人失望的非农就业数据发布后。但是美联储决策者不为所动，最近几周就连几位鹰派官员也说，即使财政刺激规模史无前例，通货膨胀也不太可能失去控制。美联储主席鲍威尔和拜登政府经济顾问表示，现在一些领域出现的通货膨胀是“暂时性”的。这就产生了一个重要的问题：所谓 “暂时性”到底意味着多长时间？目前来看，答案很可能是未知的，但以往几次的衰退可能为人们提供一些线索。经济衰退后的大宗商品如果最近的价格上涨主要是由大宗商品驱动的，那么这取决于大宗商品涨势能持续多长时间。以2009年经济回升为路线图，对原材料的需求以及大宗商品价格的高涨持续了两年，全球通货膨胀升势维持到大宗商品市场见顶回落才停止。这些价格上涨很大程度上是由庞大的中国基础设施建设推动的。这次，随着拜登政府巨额基建计划的推出，美国变成了十多年前的中国。按照这种逻辑，所谓“暂时性”可能意味着两年。电脑芯片短缺但是，木材和铜等原材料并不是可能加剧通胀的唯一因素。用于手机 、汽车、冰箱等一切电子产品的芯片也将发挥重要作用。由于芯片短缺，本田，宝马和其他汽车制造商被迫停产。鉴于芯片的重要性，由30个成分股组成的费城半导体指数与债市10年盈亏平衡通胀率呈现正相关也就不足为奇了。过去的一年，这两个指标一直保持同向。二手车周三公布的数据显示，芯片短缺导致的新车生产放缓引发二手车和卡车价格4月份大涨10%。Nordea Investment Funds SA的高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示 ，买不起高价车的消费者需求的释放令二手车价格飙涨。曼海姆二手车价值指数显示它们已比去年年底上涨20%。盈亏平衡通胀率债券市场已经察觉了通胀压力，它所反映的通货膨胀预期对投资者的预测有影响。衡量未来十年通胀预期的10年盈亏平衡通胀率约为2.57％，接近2013年3月以来最高水平。周三，5年盈亏平衡通胀率达到2.82％，是2005年以来的最高水平。可以肯定的是，并非所有市场参与者都同意来自债券市场的通胀信号。高盛和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)估计，债券交易员对未来几年3%的年通胀率预期过于激进。薪资压力一些投资者，策略师和政界人士认为，远低于预期的就业数据传递出一个真正的信息是企业雇佣成本将上升。部分原因是政府增加了失业救济金，这使雇主之前开出的工资吸引力降低了。任何薪资上升压力都可能反映到商品和服务的价格中，从而进一步提高通货膨胀率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4319469,"gmtCreate":1620947644158,"gmtModify":1680788618535,"authorId":3574831020474056,"author":{"id":3574831020474056,"idStr":"3574831020474056","authorId":3574831020474056,"name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198120135,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"???","text":"???","html":"???"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198163843,"gmtCreate":1620947182682,"gmtModify":1704350793823,"author":{"id":"3561796458359796","authorId":"3561796458359796","name":"吉星lily","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1753d07673cc1fe3e1f5e366777cbdd6","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3561796458359796","authorIdStr":"3561796458359796"},"htmlText":"[流淚]&nbsp;","listText":"[流淚]&nbsp;","text":"[流淚]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198163843","repostId":1184785046,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184785046","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620869787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184785046?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 09:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184785046","media":"彭博环球财经","summary":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超","content":"<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"lsy1568765252508","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n彭博环球财经2021-05-13 09:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA\">彭博环球财经</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26d2e743adbb3b7a16bc81651b06c89","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184785046","content_text":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高水平。根据美国银行的数据，最近一轮美国企业业绩电话会议上，通胀一词成为流行词，出现次数比一年前增加了800%。尽管上周的非农就业报告中显示4月份新增就业只有经济学家预期的四分之一，但市场普遍将数据视为企业必须提高工资以填补职位空缺的信号。美国银行美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian上周五表示，“通货膨胀风险是我们要关注的，我不知道它们是否只是暂时的”.4月CPI数据的飙升令美债市场5年通胀预期提升至2005年以来的最高水平。CPI环比增长0.8％，高于经济学家预期的0.2％；同比升幅4.2％，高于预期的3.6％。10年期美国国债收益率在数据发布后上涨五个基点，至1.67％。通货膨胀担忧日益加剧对拜登庞大的刺激计划构成政治威胁，尤其是在上周五令人失望的非农就业数据发布后。但是美联储决策者不为所动，最近几周就连几位鹰派官员也说，即使财政刺激规模史无前例，通货膨胀也不太可能失去控制。美联储主席鲍威尔和拜登政府经济顾问表示，现在一些领域出现的通货膨胀是“暂时性”的。这就产生了一个重要的问题：所谓 “暂时性”到底意味着多长时间？目前来看，答案很可能是未知的，但以往几次的衰退可能为人们提供一些线索。经济衰退后的大宗商品如果最近的价格上涨主要是由大宗商品驱动的，那么这取决于大宗商品涨势能持续多长时间。以2009年经济回升为路线图，对原材料的需求以及大宗商品价格的高涨持续了两年，全球通货膨胀升势维持到大宗商品市场见顶回落才停止。这些价格上涨很大程度上是由庞大的中国基础设施建设推动的。这次，随着拜登政府巨额基建计划的推出，美国变成了十多年前的中国。按照这种逻辑，所谓“暂时性”可能意味着两年。电脑芯片短缺但是，木材和铜等原材料并不是可能加剧通胀的唯一因素。用于手机 、汽车、冰箱等一切电子产品的芯片也将发挥重要作用。由于芯片短缺，本田，宝马和其他汽车制造商被迫停产。鉴于芯片的重要性，由30个成分股组成的费城半导体指数与债市10年盈亏平衡通胀率呈现正相关也就不足为奇了。过去的一年，这两个指标一直保持同向。二手车周三公布的数据显示，芯片短缺导致的新车生产放缓引发二手车和卡车价格4月份大涨10%。Nordea Investment Funds SA的高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示 ，买不起高价车的消费者需求的释放令二手车价格飙涨。曼海姆二手车价值指数显示它们已比去年年底上涨20%。盈亏平衡通胀率债券市场已经察觉了通胀压力，它所反映的通货膨胀预期对投资者的预测有影响。衡量未来十年通胀预期的10年盈亏平衡通胀率约为2.57％，接近2013年3月以来最高水平。周三，5年盈亏平衡通胀率达到2.82％，是2005年以来的最高水平。可以肯定的是，并非所有市场参与者都同意来自债券市场的通胀信号。高盛和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)估计，债券交易员对未来几年3%的年通胀率预期过于激进。薪资压力一些投资者，策略师和政界人士认为，远低于预期的就业数据传递出一个真正的信息是企业雇佣成本将上升。部分原因是政府增加了失业救济金，这使雇主之前开出的工资吸引力降低了。任何薪资上升压力都可能反映到商品和服务的价格中，从而进一步提高通货膨胀率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":198169673,"gmtCreate":1620947115692,"gmtModify":1704350792840,"author":{"id":"3581618319382702","authorId":"3581618319382702","name":"打打小猫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/573e08273dd1d002da1b874fec073326","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3581618319382702","authorIdStr":"3581618319382702"},"htmlText":"我覺得會持續下去，很久很久","listText":"我覺得會持續下去，很久很久","text":"我覺得會持續下去，很久很久","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/198169673","repostId":1184785046,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184785046","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620869787,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184785046?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-13 09:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184785046","media":"彭博环球财经","summary":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超","content":"<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"lsy1568765252508","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Just how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJust how long will \"temporary\" high inflation last? Several indicators may provide clues\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n彭博环球财经2021-05-13 09:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul><li>Long-term inflation risk remains a top priority for investors</li><li>Commodities, chip shortages boost expectations for rising inflation</li></ul>Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any recovery in inflation this year is \"temporary,\" but traders in financial markets are less convinced.Before the U.S. announced that the CPI surged more than expected on Wednesday, investors were already paying close attention to the general signs of rising costs. Commodity prices such as copper and timber soared to record levels, and the bond market's inflation expectations for the next decade climbed to the highest in eight years. The sentiment is also rocking the stock market, with the Cboe volatility index rising to its highest level since March.according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>According to the data, the term inflation became a buzzword in the latest round of U.S. corporate performance conference calls, appearing 800% more often than a year ago. Although last week's nonfarm payrolls report showed just a quarter of the new jobs added in April as economists expected, markets broadly viewed the data as a signal that companies must raise wages to fill job openings.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, said on Friday that \"inflation risks are something we are looking at, and I don't know if they are only temporary\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b19d7a32edc0f9d2783247837929e99\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The soaring CPI data in April raised the five-year inflation expectation of the U.S. bond market to the highest level since 2005. CPI rose 0.8% month-over-month, higher than economists' expectations of 0.2%; The year-over-year increase was 4.2%, ahead of expectations of 3.6%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose five basis points to 1.67% after the data was released.Growing inflation concerns pose a political threat to Biden's sprawling stimulus package, especially after disappointing nonfarm payrolls data last Friday.But Fed policymakers are unimpressed, with even a few hawkish officials saying in recent weeks that inflation is unlikely to spiral out of control even if fiscal stimulus is of unprecedented magnitude. Federal Reserve Chair Powell and economic advisers for the Biden administration said the inflation that is now emerging in some areas is \"temporary.\"This raises an important question: how long does the term \"temporary\" really mean? For now, the answer is likely to be unknown, but previous recessions may provide some clues.Commodities post-recessionIf recent price increases have been primarily driven by commodities, then it depends on how long the commodity rally lasts. Taking the economic recovery in 2009 as the road map, the demand for raw materials and commodity prices continued to rise for two years, and the global inflation rose until the commodity market peaked and fell.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30a04b2deadf97b800413229a4e4d4c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Much of these price increases have been driven by the huge Chinese infrastructure. This time, with the rollout of the Biden administration's huge infrastructure plan, the United States is the China it was more than a decade ago. By this logic, the so-called \"temporary\" could mean two years.Computer chip shortageBut raw materials such as timber and copper are not the only factors likely to fuel inflation. Chips used in everything electronic, such as mobile phones, cars and refrigerators, will also play an important role.Honda, BMW and other automakers have been forced to halt production due to chip shortages. Given the importance of chips, it is not surprising that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which consists of 30 constituent stocks, is positively correlated with the bond market's 10-year breakeven inflation rate. The two indicators have remained in the same direction over the past year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0120691a3f36045234357a8d4a3e555e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Used carsData released Wednesday showed that a slowdown in new car production due to chip shortages triggered a 10% jump in used car and truck prices in April.Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, said the release of demand from consumers who can't afford high-priced cars has sent used car prices skyrocketing. The Mannheim Used Car Value Index shows they're up 20% from the end of last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93c36b231e1120dbc979eb56bd5992d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Breakeven inflation rateThe bond market has perceived inflationary pressures, and the inflationary expectations it reflects have an impact on investors' forecasts. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which measures inflation expectations over the next decade, is about 2.57%, close to its highest level since March 2013. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate hit 2.82% on Wednesday, the highest since 2005.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ab57b2061fc6789a8e2c024b49eb11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To be sure, not all market participants agree with the inflation signals coming from the bond markets.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>Investment Management (Pimco) estimates that bond traders are too aggressive in expecting an annual inflation rate of 3% over the next few years.Salary pressureSome investors, strategists and politicians believe that the far-below-expected employment data sends a real message that corporate employment costs will rise. Part of this is because the government has increased unemployment benefits, which makes the wages previously offered by employers less attractive. Any upward pressure on wages could be reflected in the prices of goods and services, further raising the rate of inflation.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ac04125b7ce459e89fea2ca72b3ccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA\">彭博环球财经</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d26d2e743adbb3b7a16bc81651b06c89","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kMsMuk-zb7_c2dGQ-4bPLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184785046","content_text":"长期通货膨胀风险仍然是投资者关注的头等大事大宗商品，芯片短缺推动对通胀率上涨的预期美联储官员一遍又一遍强调今年通胀的任何回升都是“暂时”的，但金融市场的交易员并没有他们那么笃定。在周三美国公布CPI超预期大涨前，投资者已经对普遍成本上升迹象高度关注，铜、木材等大宗商品价格飙升至创纪录水平，债券市场对未来十年的通货膨胀预期攀升至八年来最高。这种情绪也在动摇股票市场，Cboe波动率指数升至3月以来最高水平。根据美国银行的数据，最近一轮美国企业业绩电话会议上，通胀一词成为流行词，出现次数比一年前增加了800%。尽管上周的非农就业报告中显示4月份新增就业只有经济学家预期的四分之一，但市场普遍将数据视为企业必须提高工资以填补职位空缺的信号。美国银行美国股票和量化策略主管Savita Subramanian上周五表示，“通货膨胀风险是我们要关注的，我不知道它们是否只是暂时的”.4月CPI数据的飙升令美债市场5年通胀预期提升至2005年以来的最高水平。CPI环比增长0.8％，高于经济学家预期的0.2％；同比升幅4.2％，高于预期的3.6％。10年期美国国债收益率在数据发布后上涨五个基点，至1.67％。通货膨胀担忧日益加剧对拜登庞大的刺激计划构成政治威胁，尤其是在上周五令人失望的非农就业数据发布后。但是美联储决策者不为所动，最近几周就连几位鹰派官员也说，即使财政刺激规模史无前例，通货膨胀也不太可能失去控制。美联储主席鲍威尔和拜登政府经济顾问表示，现在一些领域出现的通货膨胀是“暂时性”的。这就产生了一个重要的问题：所谓 “暂时性”到底意味着多长时间？目前来看，答案很可能是未知的，但以往几次的衰退可能为人们提供一些线索。经济衰退后的大宗商品如果最近的价格上涨主要是由大宗商品驱动的，那么这取决于大宗商品涨势能持续多长时间。以2009年经济回升为路线图，对原材料的需求以及大宗商品价格的高涨持续了两年，全球通货膨胀升势维持到大宗商品市场见顶回落才停止。这些价格上涨很大程度上是由庞大的中国基础设施建设推动的。这次，随着拜登政府巨额基建计划的推出，美国变成了十多年前的中国。按照这种逻辑，所谓“暂时性”可能意味着两年。电脑芯片短缺但是，木材和铜等原材料并不是可能加剧通胀的唯一因素。用于手机 、汽车、冰箱等一切电子产品的芯片也将发挥重要作用。由于芯片短缺，本田，宝马和其他汽车制造商被迫停产。鉴于芯片的重要性，由30个成分股组成的费城半导体指数与债市10年盈亏平衡通胀率呈现正相关也就不足为奇了。过去的一年，这两个指标一直保持同向。二手车周三公布的数据显示，芯片短缺导致的新车生产放缓引发二手车和卡车价格4月份大涨10%。Nordea Investment Funds SA的高级宏观策略师Sebastien Galy表示 ，买不起高价车的消费者需求的释放令二手车价格飙涨。曼海姆二手车价值指数显示它们已比去年年底上涨20%。盈亏平衡通胀率债券市场已经察觉了通胀压力，它所反映的通货膨胀预期对投资者的预测有影响。衡量未来十年通胀预期的10年盈亏平衡通胀率约为2.57％，接近2013年3月以来最高水平。周三，5年盈亏平衡通胀率达到2.82％，是2005年以来的最高水平。可以肯定的是，并非所有市场参与者都同意来自债券市场的通胀信号。高盛和太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)估计，债券交易员对未来几年3%的年通胀率预期过于激进。薪资压力一些投资者，策略师和政界人士认为，远低于预期的就业数据传递出一个真正的信息是企业雇佣成本将上升。部分原因是政府增加了失业救济金，这使雇主之前开出的工资吸引力降低了。任何薪资上升压力都可能反映到商品和服务的价格中，从而进一步提高通货膨胀率。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4319471,"gmtCreate":1620947654183,"gmtModify":1680788617257,"authorId":3574831020474056,"author":{"id":3574831020474056,"idStr":"3574831020474056","authorId":3574831020474056,"name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":198169673,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"别这么悲观嘛?","text":"别这么悲观嘛?","html":"别这么悲观嘛?"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":63,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.47.1","shortVersion":"4.47.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1184785046","isCrawlerRequest":true}