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2024-01-14

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2024-01-03

666

@TigerEvents:🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅

2023-12-12

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

2022-09-30

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$

2021-12-24

ok

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2021-06-28

111

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2021-06-18

？

Hawkish signal! With the Federal Reserve gradually changing its tune, what will happen to the real estate and stock markets?

2021-05-29

I

Last night and this morning: The short squeeze by retail investors has paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget

2021-05-27

111

This signal indicates that the market is downplaying concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening this summer.

2021-05-27

Hi

Three factors indicate that the "reverse period" of technology stocks is not over yet

2021-05-03

666

Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?

2021-05-01

?

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Go to Tiger App to see more news

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TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? 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Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251274818994280,"gmtCreate":1702383715547,"gmtModify":1702383718424,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4eca804b1d7bfd8510044aad5ae3a8e9","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251274818994280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916384387,"gmtCreate":1664511428849,"gmtModify":1676537469196,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916384387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009091229,"gmtCreate":1640343023262,"gmtModify":1676533517464,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009091229","repostId":"1169357395","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127962201,"gmtCreate":1624819136703,"gmtModify":1703845506737,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127962201","repostId":"1192656485","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168125845,"gmtCreate":1623967496187,"gmtModify":1703824727038,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168125845","repostId":"1111690771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish signal! With the Federal Reserve gradually changing its tune, what will happen to the real estate and stock markets?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"<p>Global attention is focused on whether the United States will become rate hike, and when rate hike will become</p><p>On June 16 local time, the Federal Reserve released its economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021, respectively. The dot plot released together showed that more than half of FOMC members gave expectations for rate hike ahead of schedule, with the median forecast suggesting that the Fed will rate hike twice before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Federal Reserve's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on my country's stock and real estate markets? Leverage Games will discuss this based on the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. Hawkish turning signals deserve attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support holding at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is relatively confident in the U.S. economy, believing that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared to the forecast of 6.5% at its March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous expectation of 2.2%. With the relatively good economic recovery, price and monetary policy issues naturally arise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures conducted a survey, which they found very meaningful and expressed their gratitude.</p><p>The rate hike path dot plot by Federal Reserve officials shows that the Fed may rate hike twice by the end of 2023.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023, compared to 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Special thanks)</p><p>Eleven committee members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven committee members are expected to begin their rate hike in 2022. There were four in March.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March suggests that rate hike will not occur before the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key question is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%, which means that the Fed is actually taking appropriate action in the face of excess liquidity.</p><p>However, it has been made clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>The leverage game needs to be added here: what constitutes the goals of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the United States added 278,000 and 559,000 non-farm payrolls in April and May respectively, both lower than expected. Compared to the level before the black swan event, employment still decreased by about 7.6 million in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source: Northeast Securities (with special thanks)</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (unchanged from its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively—returning to a very low level is roughly acceptable.</p><p>Meanwhile, Powell believes that inflation is likely to remain high for the next few months before easing—price indicators should be considered adequate.</p><p>So my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, or simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of US monetary policy may accelerate and deserves attention, but the stock market should be safe for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the changes in the number of Federal Reserve members' attitudes towards rate hike mentioned above, it can be basically concluded that the pace of rate hike has accelerated significantly compared to before.</p><p>Although there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. Meanwhile, Powell is already preparing to discuss tapering bond purchases, indicating a clear hawkish stance. Therefore, the US dollar will have support in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will likely fluctuate.</p><p>However, liquidity between China and the US is generally loose. For example, our M2 reached 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month.</p><p>At the same time, both the central banks of China and the United States have relatively thorough and transparent communication with the market, and neither will experience a sudden shift in monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will generally not panic, and a trend decline will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still somewhat weak, while external demand supports high production prosperity. Real estate and investment cannot be too cool at this time.</b></p><p>June 16th was a very interesting day. The United States announced part of its interest rate meeting statement, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, while external demand remains an important support.</p><p>According to statistics from ShouChuang Securities, for example, the average two-year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | First Capital Securities (with special thanks)</p><p>The compound annual growth rate of export delivery value has slowed significantly, echoing the sharp decline in exports in May, but without the high growth in exports, industrial data would have declined even more.</p><p>Overall, with external demand peaking and declining, it is certain that production and exports will have a slight impact in the future.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the area of new housing starts has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, while the area of completed housing has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive year-on-year to 5.0%. Real estate investment still has support in the short term, but there is some pressure in the long term.</p><p>Meanwhile, with the strengthening of debt management, a decline in fixed investment is highly likely.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Retail sales grew by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than the market expectation of 12.8% and the previous value of 17.7%.</p><p>In summary, Leverage Games believes that with domestic demand so-so and exports peaking, the crackdown on the real estate market should not be too bad.</p><p><b>5. Whether there will be a liquidity turning point in the United States in the third quarter is worth noting.</b></p><p>Whether it's global housing prices, commodities, or the US stock market, the current surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question arises: will there be a turning point in US liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned above, the Federal Reserve is signaling a reduction in volume, and the interest rate on excess reserves has slightly increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zhejiang Securities</a>(Special thanks)</p><p>The leveraged game in the third quarter believes that the first is a small increase, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of actions by the People's Bank of my country has proven that \"self-reliance\" - as long as the United States does not rate hike, the global trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns is unlikely to arrive.</p><p>From this perspective alone, the Chinese stock market is not expected to be bearish in 2021; The real estate market has only shown an exceptionally harsh attitude towards speculation; as mentioned above, it is still needed for economic stability.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss reducing QE, and began to reduce QE at the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022, which was basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will be largely unaffected by the US market in 2021, while the real estate market will be dominated by the US market.</b>The former, a leveraged game, means not to worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the crackdown on speculation in the real estate market will continue throughout 2021. However, local governments are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their ability to manage the real estate market, and they have always had their own ways to ensure certain prices and sales volumes.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish signal! With the Federal Reserve gradually changing its tune, what will happen to the real estate and stock markets?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish signal! With the Federal Reserve gradually changing its tune, what will happen to the real estate and stock markets?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杠杆游戏</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 21:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global attention is focused on whether the United States will become rate hike, and when rate hike will become</p><p>On June 16 local time, the Federal Reserve released its economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021, respectively. The dot plot released together showed that more than half of FOMC members gave expectations for rate hike ahead of schedule, with the median forecast suggesting that the Fed will rate hike twice before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Federal Reserve's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on my country's stock and real estate markets? Leverage Games will discuss this based on the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. Hawkish turning signals deserve attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support holding at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is relatively confident in the U.S. economy, believing that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared to the forecast of 6.5% at its March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous expectation of 2.2%. With the relatively good economic recovery, price and monetary policy issues naturally arise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures conducted a survey, which they found very meaningful and expressed their gratitude.</p><p>The rate hike path dot plot by Federal Reserve officials shows that the Fed may rate hike twice by the end of 2023.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023, compared to 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Special thanks)</p><p>Eleven committee members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven committee members are expected to begin their rate hike in 2022. There were four in March.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March suggests that rate hike will not occur before the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key question is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%, which means that the Fed is actually taking appropriate action in the face of excess liquidity.</p><p>However, it has been made clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>The leverage game needs to be added here: what constitutes the goals of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the United States added 278,000 and 559,000 non-farm payrolls in April and May respectively, both lower than expected. Compared to the level before the black swan event, employment still decreased by about 7.6 million in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source: Northeast Securities (with special thanks)</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (unchanged from its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively—returning to a very low level is roughly acceptable.</p><p>Meanwhile, Powell believes that inflation is likely to remain high for the next few months before easing—price indicators should be considered adequate.</p><p>So my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, or simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of US monetary policy may accelerate and deserves attention, but the stock market should be safe for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the changes in the number of Federal Reserve members' attitudes towards rate hike mentioned above, it can be basically concluded that the pace of rate hike has accelerated significantly compared to before.</p><p>Although there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. Meanwhile, Powell is already preparing to discuss tapering bond purchases, indicating a clear hawkish stance. Therefore, the US dollar will have support in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will likely fluctuate.</p><p>However, liquidity between China and the US is generally loose. For example, our M2 reached 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month.</p><p>At the same time, both the central banks of China and the United States have relatively thorough and transparent communication with the market, and neither will experience a sudden shift in monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will generally not panic, and a trend decline will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still somewhat weak, while external demand supports high production prosperity. Real estate and investment cannot be too cool at this time.</b></p><p>June 16th was a very interesting day. The United States announced part of its interest rate meeting statement, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, while external demand remains an important support.</p><p>According to statistics from ShouChuang Securities, for example, the average two-year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | First Capital Securities (with special thanks)</p><p>The compound annual growth rate of export delivery value has slowed significantly, echoing the sharp decline in exports in May, but without the high growth in exports, industrial data would have declined even more.</p><p>Overall, with external demand peaking and declining, it is certain that production and exports will have a slight impact in the future.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the area of new housing starts has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, while the area of completed housing has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive year-on-year to 5.0%. Real estate investment still has support in the short term, but there is some pressure in the long term.</p><p>Meanwhile, with the strengthening of debt management, a decline in fixed investment is highly likely.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Retail sales grew by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than the market expectation of 12.8% and the previous value of 17.7%.</p><p>In summary, Leverage Games believes that with domestic demand so-so and exports peaking, the crackdown on the real estate market should not be too bad.</p><p><b>5. Whether there will be a liquidity turning point in the United States in the third quarter is worth noting.</b></p><p>Whether it's global housing prices, commodities, or the US stock market, the current surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question arises: will there be a turning point in US liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned above, the Federal Reserve is signaling a reduction in volume, and the interest rate on excess reserves has slightly increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zhejiang Securities</a>(Special thanks)</p><p>The leveraged game in the third quarter believes that the first is a small increase, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of actions by the People's Bank of my country has proven that \"self-reliance\" - as long as the United States does not rate hike, the global trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns is unlikely to arrive.</p><p>From this perspective alone, the Chinese stock market is not expected to be bearish in 2021; The real estate market has only shown an exceptionally harsh attitude towards speculation; as mentioned above, it is still needed for economic stability.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss reducing QE, and began to reduce QE at the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022, which was basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will be largely unaffected by the US market in 2021, while the real estate market will be dominated by the US market.</b>The former, a leveraged game, means not to worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the crackdown on speculation in the real estate market will continue throughout 2021. However, local governments are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their ability to manage the real estate market, and they have always had their own ways to ensure certain prices and sales volumes.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137350785,"gmtCreate":1622303831147,"gmtModify":1704182866508,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I&nbsp;","listText":"I&nbsp;","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137350785","repostId":"1144873023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144873023","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622244373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144873023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-29 07:26","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: The short squeeze by retail investors has paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144873023","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外","content":"<p><b>Abstract:</b>All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with most chip stocks rising. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">YY Inc.</a>It fell nearly 10%; US inflation indicators have exceeded the standards again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in April; Aihuishou, a used electronics trading platform, submits its IPO application to the US >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>US stocks closed higher: All three major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 achieving its third consecutive day of gains.</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, all three major indexes closed slightly higher, with the S&P 500 achieving its third consecutive day of gains. Major technology stocks generally performed poorly, while chip stocks mostly rose. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4,203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61 points.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% this week, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%. In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9% this month, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">YY Inc.</a>Down nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mogujie</a>The company rose over 9% after its financial report showed revenue of 90.9 million yuan in the fourth fiscal quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%. YY Inc. shares fell nearly 10% after its financial report showed that the company's global average monthly active users (MAU) on mobile devices decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.52%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.57%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.06%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 2.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.35%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 4.36%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.75%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>US WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week, while Brent crude oil rose 4.8%.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. Both US WTI and London Brent crude oil recorded gains this week and this month. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $66.32 a barrel. London<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $69.63 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude oil rose 4.8% this week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures surpassed the 1900 mark on Friday, rising 7.8% this month.</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since January 7. Based on the most active contract, gold futures prices rose 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget plan: including two landmark domestic proposals.</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden has submitted his fiscal year 2022 budget request to Congress, his first official budget since taking office, which is significantly different from that of his predecessor, President Donald Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, Plan for American Families and Plan for American Jobs, neither of which has yet to be seriously discussed in Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The U.S. Treasury Department projects that Biden's tax increase plan could raise $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over a decade.</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"green paper\" on Friday stating that President Biden's tax increase plan will generate $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. This will constitute a major source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the U.S. economy and social safety net.</p><p><b>US inflation indicators have exceeded the standards again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in April, the highest level since 1992.</b></p><p>According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. PCE price index rose 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5% and significantly higher than the previous value of 2.3%, marking the fastest growth rate since 2008 and far exceeding the Federal Reserve's official inflation target of 2%.</p><p><b>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports rose to a record high.</b></p><p>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports fell from record highs. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion the previous month. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen called on the G7 to continue providing fiscal support to support the central bank's exploration of digital currency policies.</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 finance ministers and central bank governors on Friday that it was important to provide further fiscal support \"to facilitate a strong and lasting post-pandemic recovery.\"</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail investors' short squeeze temporarily subsided, with AMC surging 38% in early trading before closing lower.</b></a></p><p>AMC, caught in the midst of a short squeeze by retail investors, saw its gains widen to 38% in early trading on Friday after four consecutive days of sharp increases, but later retreated, ultimately closing down 1.58%. Other recently hot stocks favored by retail investors also performed weakly on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>Both closed with gains of less than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntary recall of some Model 3 and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company announced a voluntary recall of certain Model 3 models manufactured between December 2018 and March 2021, and certain Model Y models manufactured between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect the brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Aihuishou, a secondhand electronics trading platform, has submitted its IPO application to the United States.</b></a></p><p>Aihuishou, a used electronics trading platform, has submitted its IPO application to the United States, intending to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"RERE.\" Underwriters include...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>China Renaissance<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund temporarily prohibits clients from redeeming some funds.</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily prohibiting customers from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Because the strategy suffered heavy losses, investors are rushing to redeem their investments.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders voted to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media Citation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>According to reports from Friday's shareholders' meeting, HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's loans with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: Anti-monopoly has a positive impact on the industry.</b></p><p>During the first-quarter earnings call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues related to regulation, rider welfare, and merchant fees. Regarding Meituan's anti-monopoly investigation, Wang Xing stated that anti-monopoly regulation will have a positive impact on the entire internet industry. He also indicated that Meituan has a dedicated team to cooperate with regulators, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have a significant negative impact on Meituan's food delivery business. Meanwhile, Wang Xing stated, \"We strictly prohibit any form of choosing between two options and have established a transparent and effective reporting channel. We will continue to actively cooperate with regulatory authorities and fully respect merchants' right to choose independently.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Good news for Tiger users: Tiger is currently supporting weekend orders! Pre-listing orders are a value-added service provided by Tiger Bros. that allows users to place orders during non-trading hours. Currently, it supports three order types: stop-loss orders, stop-loss limit orders, and limit orders.</p><p>In other words, users can place orders during market closures, such as weekends and other holidays. The orders will be saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click to learn more >>></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: The short squeeze by retail investors has paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: The short squeeze by retail investors has paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-29 07:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract:</b>All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with most chip stocks rising. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">YY Inc.</a>It fell nearly 10%; US inflation indicators have exceeded the standards again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in April; Aihuishou, a used electronics trading platform, submits its IPO application to the US >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>US stocks closed higher: All three major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 achieving its third consecutive day of gains.</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, all three major indexes closed slightly higher, with the S&P 500 achieving its third consecutive day of gains. Major technology stocks generally performed poorly, while chip stocks mostly rose. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4,203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61 points.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% this week, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%. In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9% this month, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">YY Inc.</a>Down nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mogujie</a>The company rose over 9% after its financial report showed revenue of 90.9 million yuan in the fourth fiscal quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%. YY Inc. shares fell nearly 10% after its financial report showed that the company's global average monthly active users (MAU) on mobile devices decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.52%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.57%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.06%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 2.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.35%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 4.36%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.75%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>US WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week, while Brent crude oil rose 4.8%.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. Both US WTI and London Brent crude oil recorded gains this week and this month. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $66.32 a barrel. London<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $69.63 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude oil rose 4.8% this week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures surpassed the 1900 mark on Friday, rising 7.8% this month.</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since January 7. Based on the most active contract, gold futures prices rose 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget plan: including two landmark domestic proposals.</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden has submitted his fiscal year 2022 budget request to Congress, his first official budget since taking office, which is significantly different from that of his predecessor, President Donald Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, Plan for American Families and Plan for American Jobs, neither of which has yet to be seriously discussed in Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The U.S. Treasury Department projects that Biden's tax increase plan could raise $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over a decade.</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"green paper\" on Friday stating that President Biden's tax increase plan will generate $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. This will constitute a major source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the U.S. economy and social safety net.</p><p><b>US inflation indicators have exceeded the standards again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in April, the highest level since 1992.</b></p><p>According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. PCE price index rose 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5% and significantly higher than the previous value of 2.3%, marking the fastest growth rate since 2008 and far exceeding the Federal Reserve's official inflation target of 2%.</p><p><b>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports rose to a record high.</b></p><p>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports fell from record highs. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion the previous month. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen called on the G7 to continue providing fiscal support to support the central bank's exploration of digital currency policies.</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 finance ministers and central bank governors on Friday that it was important to provide further fiscal support \"to facilitate a strong and lasting post-pandemic recovery.\"</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail investors' short squeeze temporarily subsided, with AMC surging 38% in early trading before closing lower.</b></a></p><p>AMC, caught in the midst of a short squeeze by retail investors, saw its gains widen to 38% in early trading on Friday after four consecutive days of sharp increases, but later retreated, ultimately closing down 1.58%. Other recently hot stocks favored by retail investors also performed weakly on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>Both closed with gains of less than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntary recall of some Model 3 and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company announced a voluntary recall of certain Model 3 models manufactured between December 2018 and March 2021, and certain Model Y models manufactured between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect the brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Aihuishou, a secondhand electronics trading platform, has submitted its IPO application to the United States.</b></a></p><p>Aihuishou, a used electronics trading platform, has submitted its IPO application to the United States, intending to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"RERE.\" Underwriters include...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>China Renaissance<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund temporarily prohibits clients from redeeming some funds.</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily prohibiting customers from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Because the strategy suffered heavy losses, investors are rushing to redeem their investments.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders voted to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media Citation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>According to reports from Friday's shareholders' meeting, HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's loans with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: Anti-monopoly has a positive impact on the industry.</b></p><p>During the first-quarter earnings call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues related to regulation, rider welfare, and merchant fees. Regarding Meituan's anti-monopoly investigation, Wang Xing stated that anti-monopoly regulation will have a positive impact on the entire internet industry. He also indicated that Meituan has a dedicated team to cooperate with regulators, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have a significant negative impact on Meituan's food delivery business. Meanwhile, Wang Xing stated, \"We strictly prohibit any form of choosing between two options and have established a transparent and effective reporting channel. We will continue to actively cooperate with regulatory authorities and fully respect merchants' right to choose independently.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Good news for Tiger users: Tiger is currently supporting weekend orders! Pre-listing orders are a value-added service provided by Tiger Bros. that allows users to place orders during non-trading hours. Currently, it supports three order types: stop-loss orders, stop-loss limit orders, and limit orders.</p><p>In other words, users can place orders during market closures, such as weekends and other holidays. The orders will be saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click to learn more >>></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144873023","content_text":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外市场美股收盘：三大股指集体收涨 标普500指数实现三连阳美东时间周五，三大指数均小幅收涨，标普500指数实现三连阳，大型科技股普遍表现不佳，芯片股多数上涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.19%，报34520.09点；标普500指数涨0.08%，报4203.57点；纳斯达克指数涨0.09%，报13747.61点。本周美股三大股指均录得涨幅。本周道指上涨0.9%，标普500指数上涨1.2%，纳指上涨2.1%；在5月份，标普500指数上涨0.6%，为连续第四个月上涨。本月道指上涨1.9%，纳指下跌1.5%。热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一 欢聚集团跌近10%热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，蘑菇街涨超9%，财报显示该公司第四财季营收9090万元，同比下滑23.6%；欢聚集团跌近10%，财报显示该公司一季度全球移动设备平均月活用户（MAU）同比降低15.1%；京东涨1.52%，阿里巴巴涨0.57%，哔哩哔哩涨3.06%，腾讯音乐涨2.14%，网易涨1.35%，拼多多涨4.36%，百度涨0.75%，爱奇艺跌1.86%本周美国WTI原油上涨4.3% 布伦特原油涨4.8%原油期货价格周五收盘涨跌不一。在本周与本月，美国WTI与伦敦布伦特原油均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所7月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌53美分，跌幅0.8%，收于每桶66.32美元；伦敦洲际交易所7月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨17美分，涨幅0.2%，收于每桶69.63美元。按照最活跃合约计算，WTI原油本周上涨4.3%，5月上涨4.3%。布伦特原油本周上涨4.8%，5月上涨3.5%。黄金期货周五站上1900关口 本月上涨7.8%黄金期货价格周五重返1900美元上方。本周及本月黄金期货均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格上涨6.80美元，涨幅0.4%，收于每盎司1905.30美元，创1月7日以来最高收盘价。按照最活跃合约计算，黄金期货价格本周上涨1.5%，本月上涨7.8%。国际宏观拜登公布6万亿美元预算方案：包括两项标志性的国内提案美国总统拜登向国会提交了他的2022财政年度预算申请，这是他担任总统以来的首个正式预算，其与前任总统特朗普的预算有很大不同。拜登的预算包括了他的两项标志性的国内提案，美国家庭计划和美国就业计划，这两项提案都还没有得到国会的认真讨论。美国财政部预计拜登加税计划十年可增加3.6万亿美元税收美国财政部周五发布“绿皮书”称，总统拜登的加税计划将在未来十年带来3.6万亿美元税收收入。这将构成拜登4万亿美元重建美国经济和社会保障网络计划的主要资金来源。美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%，创1992年来最高据美国商务部统计，美国4月PCE物价指数同比升3.6%，超预期升3.5%，较前值2.3%大幅提高，创2008年以来最快增速，远高于美联储的官方通胀目标2%。美国商品贸易逆差年内首次收窄 因出口升至纪录高位由于出口额飙升至创纪录水平，且进口额从历史高位回落，美国商品贸易逆差今年首次收窄。美国商务部周五发布的数据显示，4月份贸易逆差从前月的906亿美元收窄至852亿美元。彭博调查的经济学家预估中值为920亿美元。耶伦呼吁G7继续提供财政支持 支持央行数字货币政策探索美国财政部在一份声明中表示，财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）周五告诉七国集团（G7）财长和央行行长，提供进一步的财政支持“以促进疫情后的强劲和持久复苏”十分重要。公司新闻散户逼空行情暂歇 AMC早盘暴涨38%后转为收跌处在散户逼空风口浪尖的AMC在连续四日大涨之后，周五早盘涨幅一度扩大至38%，但之后回落，最终收跌1.58%。近期表现大热的其他散户抱团股周五也表现疲软，黑莓和诺基亚收盘涨幅均不足2%，游戏驿站更以下跌12.58%报收。特斯拉主动召回部分Model3车型和ModelY车型据Electrek：特斯拉宣布将主动召回2018年12月至2021年3月间生产的部分Model 3车型，以及2020年1月至2021年1月间生产的部分ModelY车型，以检查刹车卡钳螺栓。二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请，有意按代码“RERE”在纽交所挂牌交易，承销商包括高盛、美国银行、华兴资本、国泰君安、里昂证券以及老虎证券。瑞信RenTech基金暂时禁止客户赎回部分资金瑞信正暂时禁止客户从一支与Renaissance Technologies投资的基金赎回所有现金。因该策略亏损严重，投资者正匆忙赎回投资。汇丰股东投票决定到2040年停止煤炭融资媒体援引汇丰周五股东大会的消息报道，汇丰股东投票通过到2040年期间逐步淘汰煤炭融资并使该行的贷款与《巴黎协定》的气候目标一致。美团CEO王兴回应监管调查：反垄断对行业有正向影响在一季度财报电话会议上，美团CEO王兴对于近期的监管、骑手福祉、商家费率等问题作出了回应。对于美团接受反垄断调查一事，王兴表示反垄断监管对于整个互联网行业将产生正向影响，同时表示美团有专门团队配合监管层的工作，反垄断调查不会对美团的外卖业务产生很大的负面影响。同时，王兴表示，“我们严格禁止任何形式的二选一，并建立了透明有效的举报渠道，会继续积极配合监管部门，充分尊重商家的自主选择权。”----------------------------------------------------和虎友们分享一个好消息，老虎当前支持周末下单了！预挂单是老虎为用户提供的一种增值服务，可以支持用户在非交易时间段下单，目前支持止损单、止损限价单、限价单3种订单类型。也就是说，用户可以在休市期间，比如周末等节假日进行挂单，订单由老虎的交易系统保存，待开市后自动提交到交易所。点击了解详情>>>","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132752575,"gmtCreate":1622118266397,"gmtModify":1704179765934,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132752575","repostId":"2138147059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138147059","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1622097961,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138147059?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 14:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"This signal indicates that the market is downplaying concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening this summer.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138147059","media":"Wind万得","summary":"就在几周前，市场上还充斥着这样的猜测：在通胀飞涨的情况下，美联储几乎肯定会在6月16日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上开启缩减量化宽松的话题。许多业内人士猜测，如果美联储不在6会议上讨论紧缩政策","content":"<p>Just a few weeks ago, the market was rife with speculation that, given soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve would almost certainly discuss tapering quantitative easing at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16.</p><p>Many industry insiders speculate that if the Federal Reserve does not discuss tightening policy at its June meeting, the Jackson Hole central bank meeting at the end of August could send an important signal, as many of the Fed's \"radical\" ideas from the past decade have been introduced at the meeting.</p><p>However, this indicator suggests that market concerns have eased recently. The volatility of 3-month 10-year implied swap options (a measure of how U.S. Treasury yields will move over the next three months) has been steadily declining and has hit its lowest level since early March.</p><p>It is worth noting that the next three months may cover this year's Jackson Hole Annual Conference, which in previous years was held in the last week of August. Based on past experience, many central banks have elaborated on major shifts in national policy at this conference. Therefore, earlier this month, the market heavily bet on a tough adjustment by the Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole, with options positions targeting a more aggressive interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.</p><p>If the market is correct and no tapering of bond purchases is announced at the Jackson Hole meeting, people will be more concerned about the Federal Reserve's next window of opportunity.</p><p>To be sure, even if there were no unexpected events at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, a series of factors could inject new volatility into the market. Minutes from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) meeting show that several participants indicated they were willing to discuss reducing bond purchases at an \"upcoming meeting\" if the economic situation develops as expected. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expressed the same view on Tuesday.</p><p>Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau also said on Wednesday that there would be no adjustments to stimulus measures in the short term, while European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said he saw no signs of sustained inflation and therefore would not allow a reduction in bond purchases.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve discusses a possible \"timetable\" for tightening.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve officials have pledged to issue numerous warnings before the actual tapering, and policymakers signaled in the minutes of their April meeting that a reduction in purchases is likely, with more information to be released in the coming months.</p><p>The highlight of the Jackson Hole meeting will be a keynote speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell used this meeting last year to propose a groundbreaking new policy path for the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation.</p><p>This year, Powell will focus on potentially accelerating price pressures that have exceeded the Fed's 2% target range and have already created some market pressure, forcing it to tighten policy at least slightly to avoid future problems.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has so far maintained the expectation that the recent high inflation will persist for several months and then disappear. Alejandra Grindal, chief international economist at Ned Davis Research, said, \"I do think the Federal Reserve will take the right steps because they align with our view that the upside risks to inflation are temporary.\"</p><p>Grindal expects the Federal Reserve to announce a tapering of its bond-buying program between the November Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) meeting, a timeline slightly later than other central bank observers had expected, but largely consistent with this year's trend. \"Then, we expect to begin tapering in 2022. The Federal Reserve will need about a year to complete the process of tapering its bond purchases. After that, we expect to see interest rates rise as early as 2023, but possibly as late as 2024.\"</p><p>Economists and most Wall Street strategists agree with the Federal Reserve that the inflationary pressures that drove the 4.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April may subside once supply chain problems and the base effect since 2020 subside.</p><p>However, the market remains concerned about whether the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing through stimulus measures, with benchmark borrowing rates falling back to near zero and the Fed's balance sheet expanding to nearly $8 trillion.</p><p>The last time the Federal Reserve tried to reduce asset holdings and raise interest rates, the results were not ideal. In his statement, Powell said that the balance sheet reduction was on \"autopilot\". In 2017 and 2018, the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike coincided with a slowdown in economic growth, causing significant market volatility.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This signal indicates that the market is downplaying concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening this summer.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis signal indicates that the market is downplaying concerns about the Federal Reserve's tightening this summer.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-27 14:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Just a few weeks ago, the market was rife with speculation that, given soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve would almost certainly discuss tapering quantitative easing at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 16.</p><p>Many industry insiders speculate that if the Federal Reserve does not discuss tightening policy at its June meeting, the Jackson Hole central bank meeting at the end of August could send an important signal, as many of the Fed's \"radical\" ideas from the past decade have been introduced at the meeting.</p><p>However, this indicator suggests that market concerns have eased recently. The volatility of 3-month 10-year implied swap options (a measure of how U.S. Treasury yields will move over the next three months) has been steadily declining and has hit its lowest level since early March.</p><p>It is worth noting that the next three months may cover this year's Jackson Hole Annual Conference, which in previous years was held in the last week of August. Based on past experience, many central banks have elaborated on major shifts in national policy at this conference. Therefore, earlier this month, the market heavily bet on a tough adjustment by the Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole, with options positions targeting a more aggressive interest rate outlook from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.</p><p>If the market is correct and no tapering of bond purchases is announced at the Jackson Hole meeting, people will be more concerned about the Federal Reserve's next window of opportunity.</p><p>To be sure, even if there were no unexpected events at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, a series of factors could inject new volatility into the market. Minutes from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) meeting show that several participants indicated they were willing to discuss reducing bond purchases at an \"upcoming meeting\" if the economic situation develops as expected. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida expressed the same view on Tuesday.</p><p>Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau also said on Wednesday that there would be no adjustments to stimulus measures in the short term, while European Central Bank Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said he saw no signs of sustained inflation and therefore would not allow a reduction in bond purchases.</p><p><b>The Federal Reserve discusses a possible \"timetable\" for tightening.</b></p><p>Federal Reserve officials have pledged to issue numerous warnings before the actual tapering, and policymakers signaled in the minutes of their April meeting that a reduction in purchases is likely, with more information to be released in the coming months.</p><p>The highlight of the Jackson Hole meeting will be a keynote speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell used this meeting last year to propose a groundbreaking new policy path for the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation.</p><p>This year, Powell will focus on potentially accelerating price pressures that have exceeded the Fed's 2% target range and have already created some market pressure, forcing it to tighten policy at least slightly to avoid future problems.</p><p>The Federal Reserve has so far maintained the expectation that the recent high inflation will persist for several months and then disappear. Alejandra Grindal, chief international economist at Ned Davis Research, said, \"I do think the Federal Reserve will take the right steps because they align with our view that the upside risks to inflation are temporary.\"</p><p>Grindal expects the Federal Reserve to announce a tapering of its bond-buying program between the November Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) meeting, a timeline slightly later than other central bank observers had expected, but largely consistent with this year's trend. \"Then, we expect to begin tapering in 2022. The Federal Reserve will need about a year to complete the process of tapering its bond purchases. After that, we expect to see interest rates rise as early as 2023, but possibly as late as 2024.\"</p><p>Economists and most Wall Street strategists agree with the Federal Reserve that the inflationary pressures that drove the 4.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April may subside once supply chain problems and the base effect since 2020 subside.</p><p>However, the market remains concerned about whether the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing through stimulus measures, with benchmark borrowing rates falling back to near zero and the Fed's balance sheet expanding to nearly $8 trillion.</p><p>The last time the Federal Reserve tried to reduce asset holdings and raise interest rates, the results were not ideal. In his statement, Powell said that the balance sheet reduction was on \"autopilot\". In 2017 and 2018, the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike coincided with a slowdown in economic growth, causing significant market volatility.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210527/20210527092115_49454.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138147059","content_text":"就在几周前，市场上还充斥着这样的猜测：在通胀飞涨的情况下，美联储几乎肯定会在6月16日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上开启缩减量化宽松的话题。许多业内人士猜测，如果美联储不在6会议上讨论紧缩政策，那么8月底召开的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)央行年会可能会出现重要信号，因为美联储过去10年的许多“激进”想法都在该会议中引出。但这一指标却表示，市场担忧近期有所缓解。3个月10年期隐含互换期权波动率(一个用来衡量美债收益率在未来3个月如何变动的指标)一直在稳步下降，并触及3月初以来的最低水平。值得注意的是，未来三个月可能涵盖了今年的杰克逊霍尔年会，该会议往年于8月的最后一个星期召开。从过往经验来看，许多央行都在该会议上阐述国政策的重大转向。因此在本月稍早时期，市场曾大举押注美联储在杰克逊霍尔将出现强硬调整，期权头寸瞄准了美联储和欧洲央行更为激进的利率前景。如果市场是正确的，而且在杰克逊霍尔会议上没有宣布缩减购债规模，人们将更为关心美联储的下一个机会窗口。可以肯定的是，即使没有杰克逊霍尔年会上没有出现意外，也有一系列因素可能给市场注入新的波动性。美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)会议纪要显示，多位与会者表示，如果经济形势如预期发展，他们愿意在\"即将召开的会议\"上讨论缩减购债规模。美联储副主席克拉里达(Richard Clarida)周二也表达了同样的观点。法国央行(Bank of France)行长德加劳(Francois Villeroy de Galhau)周三也表示，短期内不会对刺激措施进行调整，而欧洲央行执委会成员帕内塔(Fabio Panetta)则表示，他没有看到持续通胀的迹象，因此不允许减少债券购买。美联储讨论紧缩的可能“时间表”美联储官员已经保证在实际缩减之前会发出大量警告，政策制定者在4月会议纪要上已发出信号，表明购买量减少的可能性已经到来，未来几个月还将有更多信息出台。杰克逊霍尔会议的亮点将是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的主题演讲。鲍威尔去年利用这次会议为美联储处理通胀问题的方式提出了一条开创性的新政策路径。今年，鲍威尔将关注可能加速的价格压力，这些压力超过了美联储2%的目标区间，并已造成一些市场压力，迫使其至少稍微收紧政策，以避免未来出现问题。美联储迄今为止都在坚持这样一种预期：即近期较高的通货膨胀将会持续数月，随后消失。Ned Davis Research首席国际经济学家Alejandra Grindal表示，\"我确实认为美联储会采取正确的措施，因为他们符合我们的看法，即通胀上行风险是暂时的。\"Grindal预计，美联储将在11月联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)会议之间宣布缩减购债计划，这一时间表比其他央行观察人士的预期稍晚一些，但基本上与今年的走势一致。“然后，我们预计将在2022年开始缩减。美联储将需要大约一年的时间来完成缩减购债的过程。在那之后，我们预计最早在2023年看到利率上升，但可能最晚到2024年。”经济学家和大多数华尔街策略师都认同美联储的说法，即一旦供应链问题和2020年以来的基数效应消退，推动4月份消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨4.2%的通胀压力可能会消退。不过，市场仍担心美联储能否通过刺激措施实现软着陆，指标借款利率再度降至接近零水准，且美联储资产负债表扩张至近8万亿美元。上次美联储试图减少资产持有并提高利率时，效果并不理想。鲍威尔在声明中称，资产负债表缩减处于“自动驾驶”状态。而在2017年和2018年，美联储加息25个基点与经济增速放缓相重叠，引起了市场的巨大波动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132073694,"gmtCreate":1622050102018,"gmtModify":1704178561059,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132073694","repostId":"2138519408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138519408","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622011111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138519408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Three factors indicate that the \"reverse period\" of technology stocks is not over yet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138519408","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14","content":"<p>The Nasdaq index has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have subsided. However, analysts say that future price volatility, current valuations of technology stocks, and capital flows all indicate that the current correction in US technology companies is not over.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211 points. Since then, the index has corrected by nearly 3%. While the index’s more than 1.5% gain on Monday may reassure some investors, the macroeconomic drivers of technology stocks, which have led the market over the past decade, still face challenges.</p><p>RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said, \"We believe there are no problems with the fundamentals of the technology sector, but we believe this is an overheld and overvalued part of the market, which is currently a wrong macroeconomic context for this part of the market.\"</p><p>The current market backdrop is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after the shock of a pandemic. Therefore, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are more favored than sectors and investment styles that can achieve growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>A report released by strategists last Friday showed that investors continue to invest in stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials, and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices are soaring, and expectations for infrastructure are also rising. The combination of higher economic growth and higher interest rates has injected vitality into the financial system.</p><p>The money entering this field comes from investors who are reducing their technology transactions. Calvasina stated, \"We believe inflationary pressures already exist, and the technology sector is one of the largest sources of funding for a return to inflation... so we don't think now is the best time to return to this sector.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different perspectives, attempting to explore whether the pullback in large tech companies has been sufficient. Several reasons indicate that the correction in technology companies is not yet over.</p><p>Calvasina points out that technology stocks are still overvalued relative to historical valuations in other parts of the market and technology stocks. As we mentioned above, capital inflows are not encouraging, with technology ETFs experiencing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappointed the market</b></p><p>Consumer confidence fell short of expectations in April, while the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The Conference Board of Economic Advisors noted that, at least to some extent, the short-term income outlook is under pressure from inflation concerns. Another report released Tuesday morning showed that house prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting that a mismatch between supply and demand in more key areas of the economy is pushing up house prices.</p><p>However, some members of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) have suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will lead to near-term changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Caijing stated that he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary,\" and that the Federal Reserve \"has not yet reached that level\" when discussing tapering its asset purchases.</p><p>In another commentary, Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said she did not want the Federal Reserve to \"rely too much on historical relationships and dynamics when judging the inflation outlook.\" Federal Reserve officials have recently delivered a series of speeches downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market gains.</p><p>Although the past two days of trading have provided investors with at least a brief respite following last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about the stock market given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>\"Everyone now knows they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the potential impact that could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability,\" Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday. \"If they decide to keep rising input costs on their balance sheets, that's fine, at least on the consumer side. We won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we might see profit margins rise.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the advances led by the latest technologies may be short-lived. Calvasina stated, \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people shifting funds from technology stocks to other sectors such as financials, energy, and materials. We do not believe these inflationary pressures will ease in the short term.\"</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three factors indicate that the \"reverse period\" of technology stocks is not over yet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree factors indicate that the \"reverse period\" of technology stocks is not over yet\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Nasdaq index has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have subsided. However, analysts say that future price volatility, current valuations of technology stocks, and capital flows all indicate that the current correction in US technology companies is not over.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211 points. Since then, the index has corrected by nearly 3%. While the index’s more than 1.5% gain on Monday may reassure some investors, the macroeconomic drivers of technology stocks, which have led the market over the past decade, still face challenges.</p><p>RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said, \"We believe there are no problems with the fundamentals of the technology sector, but we believe this is an overheld and overvalued part of the market, which is currently a wrong macroeconomic context for this part of the market.\"</p><p>The current market backdrop is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after the shock of a pandemic. Therefore, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are more favored than sectors and investment styles that can achieve growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>A report released by strategists last Friday showed that investors continue to invest in stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials, and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices are soaring, and expectations for infrastructure are also rising. The combination of higher economic growth and higher interest rates has injected vitality into the financial system.</p><p>The money entering this field comes from investors who are reducing their technology transactions. Calvasina stated, \"We believe inflationary pressures already exist, and the technology sector is one of the largest sources of funding for a return to inflation... so we don't think now is the best time to return to this sector.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different perspectives, attempting to explore whether the pullback in large tech companies has been sufficient. Several reasons indicate that the correction in technology companies is not yet over.</p><p>Calvasina points out that technology stocks are still overvalued relative to historical valuations in other parts of the market and technology stocks. As we mentioned above, capital inflows are not encouraging, with technology ETFs experiencing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappointed the market</b></p><p>Consumer confidence fell short of expectations in April, while the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The Conference Board of Economic Advisors noted that, at least to some extent, the short-term income outlook is under pressure from inflation concerns. Another report released Tuesday morning showed that house prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting that a mismatch between supply and demand in more key areas of the economy is pushing up house prices.</p><p>However, some members of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) have suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will lead to near-term changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Caijing stated that he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary,\" and that the Federal Reserve \"has not yet reached that level\" when discussing tapering its asset purchases.</p><p>In another commentary, Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said she did not want the Federal Reserve to \"rely too much on historical relationships and dynamics when judging the inflation outlook.\" Federal Reserve officials have recently delivered a series of speeches downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market gains.</p><p>Although the past two days of trading have provided investors with at least a brief respite following last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about the stock market given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>\"Everyone now knows they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the potential impact that could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability,\" Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday. \"If they decide to keep rising input costs on their balance sheets, that's fine, at least on the consumer side. We won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we might see profit margins rise.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the advances led by the latest technologies may be short-lived. Calvasina stated, \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people shifting funds from technology stocks to other sectors such as financials, energy, and materials. We do not believe these inflationary pressures will ease in the short term.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d770a193c6a88684d0203fd2ec91e4a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138519408","content_text":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”\n当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。\n以Parag Thatte为首的德意志银行策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。\n\n能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。\n进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”\n在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。\nCalvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。\n经济数据令市场失望\n4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。\n不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对雅虎财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。\n堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。\n尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。\nTD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”\n其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108967005,"gmtCreate":1619994048107,"gmtModify":1704336949715,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108967005","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article is from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>\"Macroeconomic\".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2021, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><b>Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b>1) In Q1 2021, U.S. personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. This demonstrates the immediate stimulating effect of the $1,400 subsidy in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption after the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b>In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter. 1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the supply-demand gap in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventories. This means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies have driven up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap has led to high import growth.</b>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b>We believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination process and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects. Personal consumption expenditures: The first quarter is expected to be the peak of goods consumption, and service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the strength of the subsequent service sector recovery. Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment requires attention to the subsequent progress of the pandemic. Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; Changes in private inventories may not improve until unemployment benefits end in September. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>II. Global Macro Data</b></p><p><b>This week's high-frequency data</b>New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>epidemic</b>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased.</p><p><b>Demand</b>Retail sales in Japan rebounded significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and commodities</b>Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>The U.S. existing home sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, slightly lower than market expectations.</b></p><p>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and by 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b></p><p>In Q1 2021, government subsidies of up to $2,000 per person boosted consumer spending; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the initial optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, US personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. It jumped from being the biggest drag on GDP in Q4 to the biggest contributor, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of both the $600 subsidy in January and the $1,400 subsidy that began to be distributed in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while the year-on-year growth rate of non-durable goods slowed slightly (4.3%), indicating that the US$1,400 subsidy in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Consumption of goods and services jointly drove high growth in personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In Q1 2021, commodity consumption contributed 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. This was mainly due to the renewed high growth of durable goods under fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In Q1 2021, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared to Q4, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP improved only slightly by 0.3 percentage points. 2) Service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. Although service consumption still had a negative contribution of -1.4% to GDP in Q1 2021, it improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The improvement was greater than that of durable goods consumption, demonstrating that service consumption has greater resilience in improving under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and easing of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b></p><p>The impact of non-residential investment on GDP growth has improved significantly, while private inventory has become a drag. In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the gap between supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. The main factor dragging down private investment was changes in private inventories (a drag of 0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term. In Q1 2021, residential investment's contribution to GDP remained stable. However, with the gradual rise in mortgage rates since 2021, the US real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction spending and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that the contribution of residential investment to GDP will gradually decline in the future.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drove up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap led to high import growth.</b></p><p>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight recovery in US industrial production. However, this still pales in comparison to the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. In reality, it reflects the widening supply-demand gap in Q1 2021 due to excessive US fiscal subsidies. 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening supply and demand gap in the United States is the expansion of imports.</p><p>Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter; attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination progress and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditures: 1) Although goods consumption showed extremely strong momentum in Q1 2021, we expect the first quarter to be the peak of goods consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies subside; 2) Service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases, but the global pandemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the intensity of the subsequent recovery of the service sector.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driver of the improvement in non-residential investment in Q1 2021 was positive economic expectations. From the current perspective, the global pandemic is the core factor determining the strength of economic recovery, and the subsequent progress of the pandemic needs to be monitored. 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventory, i.e., the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current supply-demand gap in the United States can be alleviated. From the current perspective, it may not be until after unemployment benefits end in September that a significant trend of bridging between the supply and demand sides of the United States can emerge, thereby driving inventory investment.</p><p>Government spending and net exports: 1) With the continued payment of unemployment benefits in the second and third quarters, government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. If the US jobs program or the US family program can be implemented within the year, it will also boost government spending levels; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of US industrial production, which, as mentioned above, may not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the United States declined this week. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 over the past seven days. As of April 29, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 150 million, the cumulative number of deaths reached 3.14 million, and the cumulative number of recoveries reached 120 million. Over the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), the United States and the United Kingdom reported 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases, respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel had the highest average number of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people globally, at 121.1 doses per 100 people, followed by the United States at 70.2 doses per 100 people and the United Kingdom at 70.9 doses per 100 people. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people globally, at 58.7%, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom at 29.3% and 20.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales rebounded significantly year-on-year.</b></p><p>Both retail and wholesale sales in Japan saw significant year-on-year growth. Japan's retail sales index rose 5.3% year-on-year in March, with textiles and apparel retailing at 15.8% year-on-year and wholesale sales at 1.0% year-on-year in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and consumption of semi-durable goods increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales rose 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year in March, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest at 35.5% year-on-year. Durable goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, while non-durable goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and Employment: New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and new order growth both increased month-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery in industry. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production rose 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from the previous week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries rose by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly that week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. In the week ending April 24, initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week; The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million in the week ending April 17, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: US imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March. U.S. exports rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points to 11.5% in March from the previous month, while imports rose by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance was -$90.59 billion in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2 per barrel; The weekly average price of Brent crude rose to $66.6 per barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real Estate: The US existing home sales index rose year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for the eighth consecutive month in February. The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-over-year to 246.0 in February, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains. The U.S. existing home sales index rose sharply by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>New home starts and construction orders in Japan rose sharply in March. New home starts in Japan in March rose 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, while construction orders in March rose 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell 18.2 to 706.6, indicating a slight cooling of housing market activity.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained basically stable.</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices remained basically stable. On April 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate meeting statement. At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said that it would take some time to see substantial progress, and that the current scale of asset purchases would be maintained before that. It was not yet time to discuss Taper, and the US Dollar Index continued to decline. As of April 29, the the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from the previous week; The euro and the pound sterling closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 against the dollar respectively (pound sterling exchange rate data as of the 28th), appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; The Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, up 1.7% from last week, as the Bank of Canada took the lead in tapering. The average weekly price of gold in London this week was $1,774.8 per ounce, basically stable from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWas the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article is from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>\"Macroeconomic\".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2021, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><b>Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b>1) In Q1 2021, U.S. personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. This demonstrates the immediate stimulating effect of the $1,400 subsidy in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption after the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b>In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter. 1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the supply-demand gap in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventories. This means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies have driven up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap has led to high import growth.</b>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b>We believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination process and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects. Personal consumption expenditures: The first quarter is expected to be the peak of goods consumption, and service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the strength of the subsequent service sector recovery. Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment requires attention to the subsequent progress of the pandemic. Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; Changes in private inventories may not improve until unemployment benefits end in September. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>II. Global Macro Data</b></p><p><b>This week's high-frequency data</b>New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>epidemic</b>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased.</p><p><b>Demand</b>Retail sales in Japan rebounded significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and commodities</b>Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>The U.S. existing home sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, slightly lower than market expectations.</b></p><p>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and by 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b></p><p>In Q1 2021, government subsidies of up to $2,000 per person boosted consumer spending; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the initial optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, US personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. It jumped from being the biggest drag on GDP in Q4 to the biggest contributor, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of both the $600 subsidy in January and the $1,400 subsidy that began to be distributed in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while the year-on-year growth rate of non-durable goods slowed slightly (4.3%), indicating that the US$1,400 subsidy in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Consumption of goods and services jointly drove high growth in personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In Q1 2021, commodity consumption contributed 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. This was mainly due to the renewed high growth of durable goods under fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In Q1 2021, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared to Q4, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP improved only slightly by 0.3 percentage points. 2) Service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. Although service consumption still had a negative contribution of -1.4% to GDP in Q1 2021, it improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The improvement was greater than that of durable goods consumption, demonstrating that service consumption has greater resilience in improving under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and easing of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b></p><p>The impact of non-residential investment on GDP growth has improved significantly, while private inventory has become a drag. In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the gap between supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. The main factor dragging down private investment was changes in private inventories (a drag of 0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term. In Q1 2021, residential investment's contribution to GDP remained stable. However, with the gradual rise in mortgage rates since 2021, the US real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction spending and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that the contribution of residential investment to GDP will gradually decline in the future.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drove up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap led to high import growth.</b></p><p>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight recovery in US industrial production. However, this still pales in comparison to the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. In reality, it reflects the widening supply-demand gap in Q1 2021 due to excessive US fiscal subsidies. 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening supply and demand gap in the United States is the expansion of imports.</p><p>Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter; attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination progress and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditures: 1) Although goods consumption showed extremely strong momentum in Q1 2021, we expect the first quarter to be the peak of goods consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies subside; 2) Service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases, but the global pandemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the intensity of the subsequent recovery of the service sector.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driver of the improvement in non-residential investment in Q1 2021 was positive economic expectations. From the current perspective, the global pandemic is the core factor determining the strength of economic recovery, and the subsequent progress of the pandemic needs to be monitored. 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventory, i.e., the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current supply-demand gap in the United States can be alleviated. From the current perspective, it may not be until after unemployment benefits end in September that a significant trend of bridging between the supply and demand sides of the United States can emerge, thereby driving inventory investment.</p><p>Government spending and net exports: 1) With the continued payment of unemployment benefits in the second and third quarters, government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. If the US jobs program or the US family program can be implemented within the year, it will also boost government spending levels; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of US industrial production, which, as mentioned above, may not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the United States declined this week. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 over the past seven days. As of April 29, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 150 million, the cumulative number of deaths reached 3.14 million, and the cumulative number of recoveries reached 120 million. Over the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), the United States and the United Kingdom reported 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases, respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel had the highest average number of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people globally, at 121.1 doses per 100 people, followed by the United States at 70.2 doses per 100 people and the United Kingdom at 70.9 doses per 100 people. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people globally, at 58.7%, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom at 29.3% and 20.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales rebounded significantly year-on-year.</b></p><p>Both retail and wholesale sales in Japan saw significant year-on-year growth. Japan's retail sales index rose 5.3% year-on-year in March, with textiles and apparel retailing at 15.8% year-on-year and wholesale sales at 1.0% year-on-year in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and consumption of semi-durable goods increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales rose 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year in March, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest at 35.5% year-on-year. Durable goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, while non-durable goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and Employment: New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and new order growth both increased month-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery in industry. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production rose 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from the previous week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries rose by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly that week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. In the week ending April 24, initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week; The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million in the week ending April 17, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: US imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March. U.S. exports rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points to 11.5% in March from the previous month, while imports rose by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance was -$90.59 billion in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2 per barrel; The weekly average price of Brent crude rose to $66.6 per barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real Estate: The US existing home sales index rose year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for the eighth consecutive month in February. The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-over-year to 246.0 in February, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains. The U.S. existing home sales index rose sharply by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>New home starts and construction orders in Japan rose sharply in March. New home starts in Japan in March rose 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, while construction orders in March rose 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell 18.2 to 706.6, indicating a slight cooling of housing market activity.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained basically stable.</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices remained basically stable. On April 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate meeting statement. At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said that it would take some time to see substantial progress, and that the current scale of asset purchases would be maintained before that. It was not yet time to discuss Taper, and the US Dollar Index continued to decline. As of April 29, the the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from the previous week; The euro and the pound sterling closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 against the dollar respectively (pound sterling exchange rate data as of the 28th), appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; The Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, up 1.7% from last week, as the Bank of Canada took the lead in tapering. The average weekly price of gold in London this week was $1,774.8 per ounce, basically stable from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101197072,"gmtCreate":1619856491896,"gmtModify":1704335809145,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573688531814941","authorIdStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101197072","repostId":"2131556829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":168125845,"gmtCreate":1623967496187,"gmtModify":1703824727038,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"？","listText":"？","text":"？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168125845","repostId":"1111690771","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111690771","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623935139,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111690771?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 21:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Hawkish signal! With the Federal Reserve gradually changing its tune, what will happen to the real estate and stock markets?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111690771","media":"杠杆游戏","summary":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息","content":"<p>Global attention is focused on whether the United States will become rate hike, and when rate hike will become</p><p>On June 16 local time, the Federal Reserve released its economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021, respectively. The dot plot released together showed that more than half of FOMC members gave expectations for rate hike ahead of schedule, with the median forecast suggesting that the Fed will rate hike twice before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Federal Reserve's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on my country's stock and real estate markets? Leverage Games will discuss this based on the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. Hawkish turning signals deserve attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support holding at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is relatively confident in the U.S. economy, believing that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared to the forecast of 6.5% at its March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous expectation of 2.2%. With the relatively good economic recovery, price and monetary policy issues naturally arise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures conducted a survey, which they found very meaningful and expressed their gratitude.</p><p>The rate hike path dot plot by Federal Reserve officials shows that the Fed may rate hike twice by the end of 2023.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023, compared to 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Special thanks)</p><p>Eleven committee members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven committee members are expected to begin their rate hike in 2022. There were four in March.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March suggests that rate hike will not occur before the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key question is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%, which means that the Fed is actually taking appropriate action in the face of excess liquidity.</p><p>However, it has been made clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>The leverage game needs to be added here: what constitutes the goals of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the United States added 278,000 and 559,000 non-farm payrolls in April and May respectively, both lower than expected. Compared to the level before the black swan event, employment still decreased by about 7.6 million in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source: Northeast Securities (with special thanks)</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (unchanged from its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively—returning to a very low level is roughly acceptable.</p><p>Meanwhile, Powell believes that inflation is likely to remain high for the next few months before easing—price indicators should be considered adequate.</p><p>So my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, or simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of US monetary policy may accelerate and deserves attention, but the stock market should be safe for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the changes in the number of Federal Reserve members' attitudes towards rate hike mentioned above, it can be basically concluded that the pace of rate hike has accelerated significantly compared to before.</p><p>Although there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. Meanwhile, Powell is already preparing to discuss tapering bond purchases, indicating a clear hawkish stance. Therefore, the US dollar will have support in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will likely fluctuate.</p><p>However, liquidity between China and the US is generally loose. For example, our M2 reached 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month.</p><p>At the same time, both the central banks of China and the United States have relatively thorough and transparent communication with the market, and neither will experience a sudden shift in monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will generally not panic, and a trend decline will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still somewhat weak, while external demand supports high production prosperity. Real estate and investment cannot be too cool at this time.</b></p><p>June 16th was a very interesting day. The United States announced part of its interest rate meeting statement, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, while external demand remains an important support.</p><p>According to statistics from ShouChuang Securities, for example, the average two-year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | First Capital Securities (with special thanks)</p><p>The compound annual growth rate of export delivery value has slowed significantly, echoing the sharp decline in exports in May, but without the high growth in exports, industrial data would have declined even more.</p><p>Overall, with external demand peaking and declining, it is certain that production and exports will have a slight impact in the future.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the area of new housing starts has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, while the area of completed housing has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive year-on-year to 5.0%. Real estate investment still has support in the short term, but there is some pressure in the long term.</p><p>Meanwhile, with the strengthening of debt management, a decline in fixed investment is highly likely.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Retail sales grew by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than the market expectation of 12.8% and the previous value of 17.7%.</p><p>In summary, Leverage Games believes that with domestic demand so-so and exports peaking, the crackdown on the real estate market should not be too bad.</p><p><b>5. Whether there will be a liquidity turning point in the United States in the third quarter is worth noting.</b></p><p>Whether it's global housing prices, commodities, or the US stock market, the current surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question arises: will there be a turning point in US liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned above, the Federal Reserve is signaling a reduction in volume, and the interest rate on excess reserves has slightly increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zhejiang Securities</a>(Special thanks)</p><p>The leveraged game in the third quarter believes that the first is a small increase, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of actions by the People's Bank of my country has proven that \"self-reliance\" - as long as the United States does not rate hike, the global trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns is unlikely to arrive.</p><p>From this perspective alone, the Chinese stock market is not expected to be bearish in 2021; The real estate market has only shown an exceptionally harsh attitude towards speculation; as mentioned above, it is still needed for economic stability.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss reducing QE, and began to reduce QE at the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022, which was basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will be largely unaffected by the US market in 2021, while the real estate market will be dominated by the US market.</b>The former, a leveraged game, means not to worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the crackdown on speculation in the real estate market will continue throughout 2021. However, local governments are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their ability to manage the real estate market, and they have always had their own ways to ensure certain prices and sales volumes.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>","source":"lsy1574902984297","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hawkish signal! With the Federal Reserve gradually changing its tune, what will happen to the real estate and stock markets?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHawkish signal! With the Federal Reserve gradually changing its tune, what will happen to the real estate and stock markets?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">杠杆游戏</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-17 21:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Global attention is focused on whether the United States will become rate hike, and when rate hike will become</p><p>On June 16 local time, the Federal Reserve released its economic forecast and policy statement. The Federal Reserve raised its forecasts for the U.S. economy and inflation in 2021, respectively. The dot plot released together showed that more than half of FOMC members gave expectations for rate hike ahead of schedule, with the median forecast suggesting that the Fed will rate hike twice before 2023.</p><p>Interest rates may rise from 0.1% to 0.6%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d41cae1274b855b1881c45df621f92f1\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, the Federal Reserve's concerns about prices have increased, and hawkish signals are beginning to emerge. What impact will this have on my country's stock and real estate markets? Leverage Games will discuss this based on the details of this interest rate meeting.</p><p><b>1. Hawkish turning signals deserve attention!</b></p><p>Thirteen of the 18 committee members support holding at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The Federal Reserve is relatively confident in the U.S. economy, believing that U.S. GDP will grow by 7.0% in 2021, compared to the forecast of 6.5% at its March meeting.</p><p>The Federal Reserve also raised its real GDP forecast for 2023 to 2.4% from the previous expectation of 2.2%. With the relatively good economic recovery, price and monetary policy issues naturally arise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66259bd1ce43d9289e0638c6cb914df7\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"257\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Huatai Futures conducted a survey, which they found very meaningful and expressed their gratitude.</p><p>The rate hike path dot plot by Federal Reserve officials shows that the Fed may rate hike twice by the end of 2023.</p><p>The June dot plot of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) showed that 13 of the 18 members supported at least one rate hike by the end of 2023, compared to 7 in March.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13dc861d49dae295f65371658fe551af\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">Northeast Securities</a>(Special thanks)</p><p>Eleven committee members are expected to hold at least two rate hike by the end of 2023, and seven committee members are expected to begin their rate hike in 2022. There were four in March.</p><p>The median dot plot forecast in March suggests that rate hike will not occur before the end of 2023.</p><p><b>2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell generally believes that it is too early to discuss rate hike. The key question is why?</b></p><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve is preparing to adjust the excess reserve rate (IOER) from 0.1% to 0.15%, which means that the Fed is actually taking appropriate action in the face of excess liquidity.</p><p>However, it has been made clear that it will continue to increase its holdings of at least $80 billion in Treasury Bond and at least $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month until substantial progress is made on the goals of full employment and price stability.</p><p>The leverage game needs to be added here: what constitutes the goals of full employment and price stability?</p><p>For example, the United States added 278,000 and 559,000 non-farm payrolls in April and May respectively, both lower than expected. Compared to the level before the black swan event, employment still decreased by about 7.6 million in May.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c8c7ecd06543dcd0ded387b77673869\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source: Northeast Securities (with special thanks)</p><p>The Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% in 2021 (unchanged from its March forecast), and to 3.8% and 3.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively—returning to a very low level is roughly acceptable.</p><p>Meanwhile, Powell believes that inflation is likely to remain high for the next few months before easing—price indicators should be considered adequate.</p><p>So my conclusion is that what Americans care about is the economy, or simply put, employment indicators.</p><p><b>3. The normalization of US monetary policy may accelerate and deserves attention, but the stock market should be safe for the time being.</b></p><p>Judging from the changes in the number of Federal Reserve members' attitudes towards rate hike mentioned above, it can be basically concluded that the pace of rate hike has accelerated significantly compared to before.</p><p>Although there is no signal from rate hike yet, an early arrival is possible. Meanwhile, Powell is already preparing to discuss tapering bond purchases, indicating a clear hawkish stance. Therefore, the US dollar will have support in the short term, and the RMB exchange rate will likely fluctuate.</p><p>However, liquidity between China and the US is generally loose. For example, our M2 reached 227.54 trillion yuan at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month.</p><p>At the same time, both the central banks of China and the United States have relatively thorough and transparent communication with the market, and neither will experience a sudden shift in monetary policy.</p><p>Therefore, the stock market will generally not panic, and a trend decline will not occur.</p><p><b>4. Domestic demand is still somewhat weak, while external demand supports high production prosperity. Real estate and investment cannot be too cool at this time.</b></p><p>June 16th was a very interesting day. The United States announced part of its interest rate meeting statement, and we released a number of economic indicators.</p><p>We can see that industrial production has actually weakened slightly, while external demand remains an important support.</p><p>According to statistics from ShouChuang Securities, for example, the average two-year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in May was 6.6%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d083afd587e6aa1242d24c96c4ad505e\" tg-width=\"477\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart source | First Capital Securities (with special thanks)</p><p>The compound annual growth rate of export delivery value has slowed significantly, echoing the sharp decline in exports in May, but without the high growth in exports, industrial data would have declined even more.</p><p>Overall, with external demand peaking and declining, it is certain that production and exports will have a slight impact in the future.</p><p>In terms of fixed asset investment, it increased by 15.4% year-on-year. However, the area of new housing starts has experienced negative growth for two consecutive months, while the area of completed housing has accelerated significantly this month, turning positive year-on-year to 5.0%. Real estate investment still has support in the short term, but there is some pressure in the long term.</p><p>Meanwhile, with the strengthening of debt management, a decline in fixed investment is highly likely.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140e47518613dba5d257d583f1f9f4ec\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Retail sales grew by 12.4% in May, slightly lower than the market expectation of 12.8% and the previous value of 17.7%.</p><p>In summary, Leverage Games believes that with domestic demand so-so and exports peaking, the crackdown on the real estate market should not be too bad.</p><p><b>5. Whether there will be a liquidity turning point in the United States in the third quarter is worth noting.</b></p><p>Whether it's global housing prices, commodities, or the US stock market, the current surge in asset prices is essentially dominated by liquidity.</p><p>Now the question arises: will there be a turning point in US liquidity in the third quarter? As mentioned above, the Federal Reserve is signaling a reduction in volume, and the interest rate on excess reserves has slightly increased.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a294dbe7d55d78d322cf321fc22590\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Chart Source |<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">Zhejiang Securities</a>(Special thanks)</p><p>The leveraged game in the third quarter believes that the first is a small increase, and the second is a test. At the same time, the last round of actions by the People's Bank of my country has proven that \"self-reliance\" - as long as the United States does not rate hike, the global trend of funds returning to the United States to pursue high returns is unlikely to arrive.</p><p>From this perspective alone, the Chinese stock market is not expected to be bearish in 2021; The real estate market has only shown an exceptionally harsh attitude towards speculation; as mentioned above, it is still needed for economic stability.</p><p>It should be noted that in the third quarter, such as July and August, the Federal Reserve began to formally discuss reducing QE, and began to reduce QE at the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022, which was basically within market expectations.</p><p>Nevertheless, this is at least a constraint on the monetary policy of any country.</p><p><b>6. Conclusion: The stock market will be largely unaffected by the US market in 2021, while the real estate market will be dominated by the US market.</b>The former, a leveraged game, means not to worry about liquidity.</p><p>What I mean by the latter is that the crackdown on speculation in the real estate market will continue throughout 2021. However, local governments are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their ability to manage the real estate market, and they have always had their own ways to ensure certain prices and sales volumes.</p><p>Besides, the water hasn't decreased.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw\">杠杆游戏</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yTYYzzbQ08ymsKDOuBB5dw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111690771","content_text":"全球瞩目，美国是否加息，何时加息？\n当地时间6月16日，美联储发布经济预测和政策声明。美联储分别上调了对2021年的美国经济及通胀预期，而一同公布的点阵图则显示，有超过半数的FOMC委员给出了提前加息的预期，中位数预测暗示，美联储将在2023年前加息2次。\n利率或从0.1%升至0.6%。\n\n总体来说，美联储对物价的担忧提高，鹰派信号初现。这对我国股市、楼市会有什么影响，杠杆游戏根据此次议息会议的细节，展开谈一谈。\n1、鹰派转向信号值得重视！\n18位委员中有13人支持在2023年底前，至少加息1次。美联储对美国经济比较有信心，他们认为2021年美国GDP将增长7.0%，而3月份会议的预测为6.5%。\n美联储还将2023年的实际GDP预测，从之前预期的2.2%上调至2.4%。伴随经济的较好复苏，物价和货币政策问题自然来了。\n\n华泰期货做了一个统计，杠杆游戏觉得非常有意义，并致谢。\n美联储官员的加息路径点阵图显示，到2023年底，美联储或许将加息2次。\nFOMC（美联储的公开市场委员会）6月点阵图显示，18 位委员中有13人支持在2023 年底前至少加息1次，而3月为7位。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n11位委员预计到2023年底至少加息2次，7名委员预计在2022年开始加息。3月为4位。\n而3月份的点阵图中位数预测值暗示，到2023年底前不会加息。\n2、美联储主席鲍威尔总体认为，现在讨论加息还为时过早，关键是为什么？\n当然，美联储准备将超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.1%，调整至0.15%，也就是说，面对流动性过剩，美联储其实也在适当出手。\n不过说得很清楚，将继续每月增持至少800亿美元的国债，以及至少400亿美元的住房抵押贷款支持证券，直到充分就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进展。\n这里杠杆游戏要多一句嘴，什么算充分就业和物价稳定目标？\n比如美国4月、5月新增非农就业人口分别为27.8万和55.9万，均低于预期。与黑天鹅前水平相比，5月就业人数依然减少了约760万。\n\n图表来源|东北证券（特此感谢）\n美联储预计2021年失业率将降至4.5%（与3月的预测持平），2022年和2023年失业率将分别降至3.8%和3.5%——到此，回到非常低的水平，大概算是合格；\n同时鲍威尔认为通货膨胀可能在未来几个月继续居高不下，然后才会有所缓和——物价指标应该算达标。\n所以，我的结论就是，美国人在乎的是经济，简单说就是就业指标。\n3、美国货币政策正常化可能加快，值得重视，但股市应该暂时无忧。\n从上文美联储委员对加息的态度人数变化看，杠杆游戏基本可以认为，加息节奏较此前大大加快。\n虽然目前还没有加息的信号，但提前到来是可能的。同时，鲍威尔已经准备讨论缩减购债，鹰派显露无疑，那么美元短期内有支撑，人民币汇率震荡为主。\n但因为中美流动性总体宽松。如我们的M2，5月末227.54万亿元，同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.2个百分点。\n同时无论中美央行，与市场的沟通都较为充分、透明，谁都不会货币政策突然转向。\n所以股市总体不会恐慌，趋势性下跌不会出现。\n4、内需还是有点弱，外需支撑生产高景气，房地产和投资这个时候不能太凉。\n6月16日是很有意思的一天，美国通报他们的议息会议部分声明，我们发布了多项经济指标。\n我们可以看，工业生产其实略走弱，外需仍是重要支撑。\n首创证券统计发现，比如5月规上工业增加值两年平均增速为6.6%，较前值略降0.2个百分点。\n\n图表来源|首创证券（特此感谢）\n出口交货值复合增速有较大回落，与5月出口大幅回落相呼应，但如果没有出口的高增长，工业数据会下滑更多。\n总体来说，外需见顶回落，生产和出口下一步略有影响是一定的。\n而固投方面，同比增长15.4%。但房屋新开工面积连续两个月负增长，竣工面积本月大幅提速，同比转正为5.0%，短期内房地产投资仍有支撑，长期存在一定的压力。\n同时债务管理的加强，固定投资的回落大概率。\n\n5月社零销售增长12.4%，小幅低于市场预期的12.8%，前值为17.7%。\n总的来说，杠杆游戏认为，内需马马虎虎，出口见顶，那么，房地产打压归打压，不能搞得太难看。\n5、三季度美国是否有流动性拐点，值得注意。\n无论全球房价，还是大宗商品，以及美国股市，资产价格大涨本质这一轮都是流动性主导的。\n现在问题来了，三季度美国流动性是否有拐点？上文杠杆游戏写了，美联储有缩量的信号，超额准备金利率略有提高。\n\n图表来源|浙商证券（特此感谢）\n3季度杠杆游戏认为，第一幅度小，第二是个试探，同时我国央行上一轮的出牌已经证明，“以我为主”——只要美国不加息，资金回美追求高收益的世界趋势，应该不会到来。\n单这个角度说，2021年，我国股市不至于看空；楼市，只是对投机表现出异常严厉的态度，如上所述，经济的稳定还需要它。\n需要注意的是，3季度，比如7、8月，美联储始正式讨论削减QE，2021年底或2022年初开始削减QE，这些基本已在市场预期内。\n尽管如此，这对任何国家的货币政策，起码都是掣肘。\n6、结论：2021年股市基本不会受美国影响，楼市以我为主。前者杠杆游戏的意思是，不要担心流动性。\n后者我的意思是，楼市打击投机，将贯穿2021年始终。但地方对楼市的操盘能力，也是越来越纯熟，保障一定的价格和销量，从来都有自己办法。\n何况，水又没减少。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127962201,"gmtCreate":1624819136703,"gmtModify":1703845506737,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"111","listText":"111","text":"111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127962201","repostId":"1192656485","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137350785,"gmtCreate":1622303831147,"gmtModify":1704182866508,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I&nbsp;","listText":"I&nbsp;","text":"I","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137350785","repostId":"1144873023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144873023","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622244373,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144873023?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-29 07:26","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Last night and this morning: The short squeeze by retail investors has paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144873023","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外","content":"<p><b>Abstract:</b>All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with most chip stocks rising. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">YY Inc.</a>It fell nearly 10%; US inflation indicators have exceeded the standards again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in April; Aihuishou, a used electronics trading platform, submits its IPO application to the US >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>US stocks closed higher: All three major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 achieving its third consecutive day of gains.</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, all three major indexes closed slightly higher, with the S&P 500 achieving its third consecutive day of gains. Major technology stocks generally performed poorly, while chip stocks mostly rose. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4,203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61 points.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% this week, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%. In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9% this month, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">YY Inc.</a>Down nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mogujie</a>The company rose over 9% after its financial report showed revenue of 90.9 million yuan in the fourth fiscal quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%. YY Inc. shares fell nearly 10% after its financial report showed that the company's global average monthly active users (MAU) on mobile devices decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.52%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.57%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.06%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 2.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.35%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 4.36%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.75%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>US WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week, while Brent crude oil rose 4.8%.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. Both US WTI and London Brent crude oil recorded gains this week and this month. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $66.32 a barrel. London<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $69.63 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude oil rose 4.8% this week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures surpassed the 1900 mark on Friday, rising 7.8% this month.</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since January 7. Based on the most active contract, gold futures prices rose 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget plan: including two landmark domestic proposals.</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden has submitted his fiscal year 2022 budget request to Congress, his first official budget since taking office, which is significantly different from that of his predecessor, President Donald Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, Plan for American Families and Plan for American Jobs, neither of which has yet to be seriously discussed in Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The U.S. Treasury Department projects that Biden's tax increase plan could raise $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over a decade.</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"green paper\" on Friday stating that President Biden's tax increase plan will generate $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. This will constitute a major source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the U.S. economy and social safety net.</p><p><b>US inflation indicators have exceeded the standards again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in April, the highest level since 1992.</b></p><p>According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. PCE price index rose 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5% and significantly higher than the previous value of 2.3%, marking the fastest growth rate since 2008 and far exceeding the Federal Reserve's official inflation target of 2%.</p><p><b>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports rose to a record high.</b></p><p>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports fell from record highs. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion the previous month. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen called on the G7 to continue providing fiscal support to support the central bank's exploration of digital currency policies.</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 finance ministers and central bank governors on Friday that it was important to provide further fiscal support \"to facilitate a strong and lasting post-pandemic recovery.\"</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail investors' short squeeze temporarily subsided, with AMC surging 38% in early trading before closing lower.</b></a></p><p>AMC, caught in the midst of a short squeeze by retail investors, saw its gains widen to 38% in early trading on Friday after four consecutive days of sharp increases, but later retreated, ultimately closing down 1.58%. Other recently hot stocks favored by retail investors also performed weakly on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>Both closed with gains of less than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntary recall of some Model 3 and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company announced a voluntary recall of certain Model 3 models manufactured between December 2018 and March 2021, and certain Model Y models manufactured between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect the brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Aihuishou, a secondhand electronics trading platform, has submitted its IPO application to the United States.</b></a></p><p>Aihuishou, a used electronics trading platform, has submitted its IPO application to the United States, intending to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"RERE.\" Underwriters include...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>China Renaissance<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund temporarily prohibits clients from redeeming some funds.</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily prohibiting customers from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Because the strategy suffered heavy losses, investors are rushing to redeem their investments.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders voted to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media Citation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>According to reports from Friday's shareholders' meeting, HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's loans with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: Anti-monopoly has a positive impact on the industry.</b></p><p>During the first-quarter earnings call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues related to regulation, rider welfare, and merchant fees. Regarding Meituan's anti-monopoly investigation, Wang Xing stated that anti-monopoly regulation will have a positive impact on the entire internet industry. He also indicated that Meituan has a dedicated team to cooperate with regulators, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have a significant negative impact on Meituan's food delivery business. Meanwhile, Wang Xing stated, \"We strictly prohibit any form of choosing between two options and have established a transparent and effective reporting channel. We will continue to actively cooperate with regulatory authorities and fully respect merchants' right to choose independently.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Good news for Tiger users: Tiger is currently supporting weekend orders! Pre-listing orders are a value-added service provided by Tiger Bros. that allows users to place orders during non-trading hours. Currently, it supports three order types: stop-loss orders, stop-loss limit orders, and limit orders.</p><p>In other words, users can place orders during market closures, such as weekends and other holidays. The orders will be saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click to learn more >>></a></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last night and this morning: The short squeeze by retail investors has paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast night and this morning: The short squeeze by retail investors has paused! Biden unveils $6 trillion budget\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-29 07:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Abstract:</b>All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with most chip stocks rising. Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">YY Inc.</a>It fell nearly 10%; US inflation indicators have exceeded the standards again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in April; Aihuishou, a used electronics trading platform, submits its IPO application to the US >>><b>Overseas markets</b></p><p><b>US stocks closed higher: All three major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 achieving its third consecutive day of gains.</b></p><p>On Friday, Eastern Time, all three major indexes closed slightly higher, with the S&P 500 achieving its third consecutive day of gains. Major technology stocks generally performed poorly, while chip stocks mostly rose. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.19% to 34,520.09 points; The S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 4,203.57 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.09% to 13,747.61 points.</p><p>All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% this week, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1%. In May, the S&P 500 rose 0.6%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9% this month, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%.</p><p><b>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YY\">YY Inc.</a>Down nearly 10%</b></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks closed mixed on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">Mogujie</a>The company rose over 9% after its financial report showed revenue of 90.9 million yuan in the fourth fiscal quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 23.6%. YY Inc. shares fell nearly 10% after its financial report showed that the company's global average monthly active users (MAU) on mobile devices decreased by 15.1% year-on-year in the first quarter.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up 1.52%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Up 0.57%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>Up 3.06%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">Tencent Music</a>Up 2.14%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>Up 1.35%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Up 4.36%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>Up 0.75%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>Down 1.86%</p><p><b>US WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week, while Brent crude oil rose 4.8%.</b></p><p>Crude oil futures prices closed mixed on Friday. Both US WTI and London Brent crude oil recorded gains this week and this month. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 53 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $66.32 a barrel. London<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">Intercontinental Exchange</a>Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $69.63 a barrel. Based on the most active contract, WTI crude oil rose 4.3% this week and 4.3% in May. Brent crude oil rose 4.8% this week and 3.5% in May.</p><p><b>Gold futures surpassed the 1900 mark on Friday, rising 7.8% this month.</b></p><p>Gold futures prices returned above $1,900 on Friday. Gold futures recorded gains this week and this month. Gold futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $6.80, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,905.30 an ounce, the highest closing price since January 7. Based on the most active contract, gold futures prices rose 1.5% this week and 7.8% this month.</p><p><b>International macro</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139938485\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Biden unveils $6 trillion budget plan: including two landmark domestic proposals.</b></a></p><p>U.S. President Joe Biden has submitted his fiscal year 2022 budget request to Congress, his first official budget since taking office, which is significantly different from that of his predecessor, President Donald Trump. Biden's budget includes two of his signature domestic proposals, Plan for American Families and Plan for American Jobs, neither of which has yet to be seriously discussed in Congress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139485125\" target=\"_blank\"><b>The U.S. Treasury Department projects that Biden's tax increase plan could raise $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over a decade.</b></a></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department released a \"green paper\" on Friday stating that President Biden's tax increase plan will generate $3.6 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. This will constitute a major source of funding for Biden's $4 trillion plan to rebuild the U.S. economy and social safety net.</p><p><b>US inflation indicators have exceeded the standards again! Core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in April, the highest level since 1992.</b></p><p>According to statistics from the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. PCE price index rose 3.6% year-on-year in April, exceeding expectations by 3.5% and significantly higher than the previous value of 2.3%, marking the fastest growth rate since 2008 and far exceeding the Federal Reserve's official inflation target of 2%.</p><p><b>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports rose to a record high.</b></p><p>The U.S. merchandise trade deficit narrowed for the first time this year as exports soared to record levels and imports fell from record highs. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday showed that the trade deficit narrowed to $85.2 billion in April from $90.6 billion the previous month. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg is $92 billion.</p><p><b>Yellen called on the G7 to continue providing fiscal support to support the central bank's exploration of digital currency policies.</b></p><p>The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told G7 finance ministers and central bank governors on Friday that it was important to provide further fiscal support \"to facilitate a strong and lasting post-pandemic recovery.\"</p><p><b>Company News</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2139486356\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Retail investors' short squeeze temporarily subsided, with AMC surging 38% in early trading before closing lower.</b></a></p><p>AMC, caught in the midst of a short squeeze by retail investors, saw its gains widen to 38% in early trading on Friday after four consecutive days of sharp increases, but later retreated, ultimately closing down 1.58%. Other recently hot stocks favored by retail investors also performed weakly on Friday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">Nokia</a>Both closed with gains of less than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">Game Station</a>It closed down 12.58%.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Voluntary recall of some Model 3 and Model Y models</b></p><p>According to Electrek:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>The company announced a voluntary recall of certain Model 3 models manufactured between December 2018 and March 2021, and certain Model Y models manufactured between January 2020 and January 2021, to inspect the brake caliper bolts.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1117147021\" target=\"_blank\"><b>Aihuishou, a secondhand electronics trading platform, has submitted its IPO application to the United States.</b></a></p><p>Aihuishou, a used electronics trading platform, has submitted its IPO application to the United States, intending to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \"RERE.\" Underwriters include...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>China Renaissance<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan Securities</a>CLSA and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">Tiger Brokers</a>。</p><p><b>Credit Suisse RenTech Fund temporarily prohibits clients from redeeming some funds.</b></p><p>Credit Suisse is temporarily prohibiting customers from redeeming all cash from a fund invested with Renaissance Technologies. Because the strategy suffered heavy losses, investors are rushing to redeem their investments.</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>Shareholders voted to stop coal financing by 2040</b></p><p>Media Citation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">HSBC</a>According to reports from Friday's shareholders' meeting, HSBC shareholders voted to phase out coal financing by 2040 and align the bank's loans with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.</p><p><b>Meituan CEO Wang Xing responds to regulatory investigation: Anti-monopoly has a positive impact on the industry.</b></p><p>During the first-quarter earnings call, Meituan CEO Wang Xing responded to recent issues related to regulation, rider welfare, and merchant fees. Regarding Meituan's anti-monopoly investigation, Wang Xing stated that anti-monopoly regulation will have a positive impact on the entire internet industry. He also indicated that Meituan has a dedicated team to cooperate with regulators, and the anti-monopoly investigation will not have a significant negative impact on Meituan's food delivery business. Meanwhile, Wang Xing stated, \"We strictly prohibit any form of choosing between two options and have established a transparent and effective reporting channel. We will continue to actively cooperate with regulatory authorities and fully respect merchants' right to choose independently.\"</p><p>----------------------------------------------------</p><p>Good news for Tiger users: Tiger is currently supporting weekend orders! Pre-listing orders are a value-added service provided by Tiger Bros. that allows users to place orders during non-trading hours. Currently, it supports three order types: stop-loss orders, stop-loss limit orders, and limit orders.</p><p>In other words, users can place orders during market closures, such as weekends and other holidays. The orders will be saved by Tiger's trading system and automatically submitted to the exchange after the market opens.</p><p><a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/131820269\" target=\"_blank\">Click to learn more >>></a></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144873023","content_text":"摘要：美股三大股指集体收涨，芯片股多数上涨；热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，欢聚集团跌近10%；美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%；二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请>>>海外市场美股收盘：三大股指集体收涨 标普500指数实现三连阳美东时间周五，三大指数均小幅收涨，标普500指数实现三连阳，大型科技股普遍表现不佳，芯片股多数上涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.19%，报34520.09点；标普500指数涨0.08%，报4203.57点；纳斯达克指数涨0.09%，报13747.61点。本周美股三大股指均录得涨幅。本周道指上涨0.9%，标普500指数上涨1.2%，纳指上涨2.1%；在5月份，标普500指数上涨0.6%，为连续第四个月上涨。本月道指上涨1.9%，纳指下跌1.5%。热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一 欢聚集团跌近10%热门中概股周五收盘涨跌不一，蘑菇街涨超9%，财报显示该公司第四财季营收9090万元，同比下滑23.6%；欢聚集团跌近10%，财报显示该公司一季度全球移动设备平均月活用户（MAU）同比降低15.1%；京东涨1.52%，阿里巴巴涨0.57%，哔哩哔哩涨3.06%，腾讯音乐涨2.14%，网易涨1.35%，拼多多涨4.36%，百度涨0.75%，爱奇艺跌1.86%本周美国WTI原油上涨4.3% 布伦特原油涨4.8%原油期货价格周五收盘涨跌不一。在本周与本月，美国WTI与伦敦布伦特原油均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所7月交割的西德州中质原油（WTI）期货价格下跌53美分，跌幅0.8%，收于每桶66.32美元；伦敦洲际交易所7月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨17美分，涨幅0.2%，收于每桶69.63美元。按照最活跃合约计算，WTI原油本周上涨4.3%，5月上涨4.3%。布伦特原油本周上涨4.8%，5月上涨3.5%。黄金期货周五站上1900关口 本月上涨7.8%黄金期货价格周五重返1900美元上方。本周及本月黄金期货均录得涨幅。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金期货价格上涨6.80美元，涨幅0.4%，收于每盎司1905.30美元，创1月7日以来最高收盘价。按照最活跃合约计算，黄金期货价格本周上涨1.5%，本月上涨7.8%。国际宏观拜登公布6万亿美元预算方案：包括两项标志性的国内提案美国总统拜登向国会提交了他的2022财政年度预算申请，这是他担任总统以来的首个正式预算，其与前任总统特朗普的预算有很大不同。拜登的预算包括了他的两项标志性的国内提案，美国家庭计划和美国就业计划，这两项提案都还没有得到国会的认真讨论。美国财政部预计拜登加税计划十年可增加3.6万亿美元税收美国财政部周五发布“绿皮书”称，总统拜登的加税计划将在未来十年带来3.6万亿美元税收收入。这将构成拜登4万亿美元重建美国经济和社会保障网络计划的主要资金来源。美国通胀指标又爆表了！4月核心PCE同比增长3.1%，创1992年来最高据美国商务部统计，美国4月PCE物价指数同比升3.6%，超预期升3.5%，较前值2.3%大幅提高，创2008年以来最快增速，远高于美联储的官方通胀目标2%。美国商品贸易逆差年内首次收窄 因出口升至纪录高位由于出口额飙升至创纪录水平，且进口额从历史高位回落，美国商品贸易逆差今年首次收窄。美国商务部周五发布的数据显示，4月份贸易逆差从前月的906亿美元收窄至852亿美元。彭博调查的经济学家预估中值为920亿美元。耶伦呼吁G7继续提供财政支持 支持央行数字货币政策探索美国财政部在一份声明中表示，财政部长珍妮特-耶伦（Janet Yellen）周五告诉七国集团（G7）财长和央行行长，提供进一步的财政支持“以促进疫情后的强劲和持久复苏”十分重要。公司新闻散户逼空行情暂歇 AMC早盘暴涨38%后转为收跌处在散户逼空风口浪尖的AMC在连续四日大涨之后，周五早盘涨幅一度扩大至38%，但之后回落，最终收跌1.58%。近期表现大热的其他散户抱团股周五也表现疲软，黑莓和诺基亚收盘涨幅均不足2%，游戏驿站更以下跌12.58%报收。特斯拉主动召回部分Model3车型和ModelY车型据Electrek：特斯拉宣布将主动召回2018年12月至2021年3月间生产的部分Model 3车型，以及2020年1月至2021年1月间生产的部分ModelY车型，以检查刹车卡钳螺栓。二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请二手电子产品交易平台爱回收提交赴美IPO申请，有意按代码“RERE”在纽交所挂牌交易，承销商包括高盛、美国银行、华兴资本、国泰君安、里昂证券以及老虎证券。瑞信RenTech基金暂时禁止客户赎回部分资金瑞信正暂时禁止客户从一支与Renaissance Technologies投资的基金赎回所有现金。因该策略亏损严重，投资者正匆忙赎回投资。汇丰股东投票决定到2040年停止煤炭融资媒体援引汇丰周五股东大会的消息报道，汇丰股东投票通过到2040年期间逐步淘汰煤炭融资并使该行的贷款与《巴黎协定》的气候目标一致。美团CEO王兴回应监管调查：反垄断对行业有正向影响在一季度财报电话会议上，美团CEO王兴对于近期的监管、骑手福祉、商家费率等问题作出了回应。对于美团接受反垄断调查一事，王兴表示反垄断监管对于整个互联网行业将产生正向影响，同时表示美团有专门团队配合监管层的工作，反垄断调查不会对美团的外卖业务产生很大的负面影响。同时，王兴表示，“我们严格禁止任何形式的二选一，并建立了透明有效的举报渠道，会继续积极配合监管部门，充分尊重商家的自主选择权。”----------------------------------------------------和虎友们分享一个好消息，老虎当前支持周末下单了！预挂单是老虎为用户提供的一种增值服务，可以支持用户在非交易时间段下单，目前支持止损单、止损限价单、限价单3种订单类型。也就是说，用户可以在休市期间，比如周末等节假日进行挂单，订单由老虎的交易系统保存，待开市后自动提交到交易所。点击了解详情>>>","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108967005,"gmtCreate":1619994048107,"gmtModify":1704336949715,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108967005","repostId":"2132567538","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2132567538","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1619941518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2132567538?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-02 15:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2132567538","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%","content":"<p><b>This article is from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>\"Macroeconomic\".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2021, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><b>Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b>1) In Q1 2021, U.S. personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. This demonstrates the immediate stimulating effect of the $1,400 subsidy in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption after the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b>In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter. 1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the supply-demand gap in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventories. This means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies have driven up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap has led to high import growth.</b>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b>We believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination process and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects. Personal consumption expenditures: The first quarter is expected to be the peak of goods consumption, and service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the strength of the subsequent service sector recovery. Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment requires attention to the subsequent progress of the pandemic. Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; Changes in private inventories may not improve until unemployment benefits end in September. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>II. Global Macro Data</b></p><p><b>This week's high-frequency data</b>New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>epidemic</b>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased.</p><p><b>Demand</b>Retail sales in Japan rebounded significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and commodities</b>Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>The U.S. existing home sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, slightly lower than market expectations.</b></p><p>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and by 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b></p><p>In Q1 2021, government subsidies of up to $2,000 per person boosted consumer spending; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the initial optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, US personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. It jumped from being the biggest drag on GDP in Q4 to the biggest contributor, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of both the $600 subsidy in January and the $1,400 subsidy that began to be distributed in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while the year-on-year growth rate of non-durable goods slowed slightly (4.3%), indicating that the US$1,400 subsidy in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Consumption of goods and services jointly drove high growth in personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In Q1 2021, commodity consumption contributed 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. This was mainly due to the renewed high growth of durable goods under fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In Q1 2021, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared to Q4, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP improved only slightly by 0.3 percentage points. 2) Service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. Although service consumption still had a negative contribution of -1.4% to GDP in Q1 2021, it improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The improvement was greater than that of durable goods consumption, demonstrating that service consumption has greater resilience in improving under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and easing of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b></p><p>The impact of non-residential investment on GDP growth has improved significantly, while private inventory has become a drag. In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the gap between supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. The main factor dragging down private investment was changes in private inventories (a drag of 0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term. In Q1 2021, residential investment's contribution to GDP remained stable. However, with the gradual rise in mortgage rates since 2021, the US real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction spending and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that the contribution of residential investment to GDP will gradually decline in the future.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drove up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap led to high import growth.</b></p><p>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight recovery in US industrial production. However, this still pales in comparison to the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. In reality, it reflects the widening supply-demand gap in Q1 2021 due to excessive US fiscal subsidies. 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening supply and demand gap in the United States is the expansion of imports.</p><p>Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter; attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination progress and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditures: 1) Although goods consumption showed extremely strong momentum in Q1 2021, we expect the first quarter to be the peak of goods consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies subside; 2) Service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases, but the global pandemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the intensity of the subsequent recovery of the service sector.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driver of the improvement in non-residential investment in Q1 2021 was positive economic expectations. From the current perspective, the global pandemic is the core factor determining the strength of economic recovery, and the subsequent progress of the pandemic needs to be monitored. 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventory, i.e., the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current supply-demand gap in the United States can be alleviated. From the current perspective, it may not be until after unemployment benefits end in September that a significant trend of bridging between the supply and demand sides of the United States can emerge, thereby driving inventory investment.</p><p>Government spending and net exports: 1) With the continued payment of unemployment benefits in the second and third quarters, government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. If the US jobs program or the US family program can be implemented within the year, it will also boost government spending levels; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of US industrial production, which, as mentioned above, may not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the United States declined this week. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 over the past seven days. As of April 29, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 150 million, the cumulative number of deaths reached 3.14 million, and the cumulative number of recoveries reached 120 million. Over the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), the United States and the United Kingdom reported 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases, respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel had the highest average number of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people globally, at 121.1 doses per 100 people, followed by the United States at 70.2 doses per 100 people and the United Kingdom at 70.9 doses per 100 people. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people globally, at 58.7%, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom at 29.3% and 20.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales rebounded significantly year-on-year.</b></p><p>Both retail and wholesale sales in Japan saw significant year-on-year growth. Japan's retail sales index rose 5.3% year-on-year in March, with textiles and apparel retailing at 15.8% year-on-year and wholesale sales at 1.0% year-on-year in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and consumption of semi-durable goods increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales rose 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year in March, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest at 35.5% year-on-year. Durable goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, while non-durable goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and Employment: New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and new order growth both increased month-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery in industry. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production rose 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from the previous week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries rose by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly that week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. In the week ending April 24, initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week; The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million in the week ending April 17, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: US imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March. U.S. exports rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points to 11.5% in March from the previous month, while imports rose by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance was -$90.59 billion in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2 per barrel; The weekly average price of Brent crude rose to $66.6 per barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real Estate: The US existing home sales index rose year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for the eighth consecutive month in February. The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-over-year to 246.0 in February, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains. The U.S. existing home sales index rose sharply by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>New home starts and construction orders in Japan rose sharply in March. New home starts in Japan in March rose 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, while construction orders in March rose 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell 18.2 to 706.6, indicating a slight cooling of housing market activity.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained basically stable.</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices remained basically stable. On April 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate meeting statement. At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said that it would take some time to see substantial progress, and that the current scale of asset purchases would be maintained before that. It was not yet time to discuss Taper, and the US Dollar Index continued to decline. As of April 29, the the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from the previous week; The euro and the pound sterling closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 against the dollar respectively (pound sterling exchange rate data as of the 28th), appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; The Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, up 1.7% from last week, as the Bank of Canada took the lead in tapering. The average weekly price of gold in London this week was $1,774.8 per ounce, basically stable from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Was the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWas the US GDP relatively strong or weak in the first quarter?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-02 15:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>This article is from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>\"Macroeconomic\".</b></p><p>Abstract</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in Q1 2021, slightly lower than market expectations.</b>The US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. However, the main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow recovery of production caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><b>Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b>1) In Q1 2021, U.S. personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods, while service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE in March was 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. This demonstrates the immediate stimulating effect of the $1,400 subsidy in March on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption after the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><b>Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b>In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter. 1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector's expectations for the economic outlook have improved; 2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the supply-demand gap in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventories. This means that the strength of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. 3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term.</p><p><b>Government spending and net exports: Subsidies have driven up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap has led to high import growth.</b>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><b>The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b>We believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination process and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects. Personal consumption expenditures: The first quarter is expected to be the peak of goods consumption, and service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases. However, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the strength of the subsequent service sector recovery. Investment: The improvement of non-residential investment requires attention to the subsequent progress of the pandemic. Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; Changes in private inventories may not improve until unemployment benefits end in September. Government spending and net exports: Government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. Net exports will return to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><b>II. Global Macro Data</b></p><p><b>This week's high-frequency data</b>New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>epidemic</b>The number of new confirmed cases in the United States has decreased.</p><p><b>Demand</b>Retail sales in Japan rebounded significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Supply and Employment</b>New orders for durable goods in the United States rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</p><p><b>Trade</b>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</p><p><b>Inflation and commodities</b>Oil prices rose slightly.</p><p><b>Real Estate</b>The U.S. existing home sales index rose in March.</p><p><b>Monetary policy and exchange rates</b>the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained stable.</p><p><b>Global Macro Calendar</b>Focus on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI</p><p>text</p><p><b>I. Weekly Viewpoint: Was the US Q1 GDP relatively strong or weak?</b></p><p><b>US GDP grew 0.4% year-on-year in Q1, slightly lower than market expectations.</b></p><p>The US GDP grew by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in Q1 2021, turning positive year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, and by 1.6% month-on-month. The main contributing factors were goods consumption, service consumption, and non-residential investment, demonstrating the relatively rapid recovery of the US economy under the improvement of the pandemic and fiscal subsidies. The main drags were changes in private inventories and imports. In fact, the US GDP growth rate in the first quarter was slightly lower than market expectations, indicating insufficient market awareness of the slow production recovery caused by excessive fiscal subsidies in the US, as well as overly optimistic expectations for the improvement of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/867b3b31bf5a4410ca85884cf283ce1f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Consumer spending: Subsidies boost commodity consumption, and the pandemic eases the recovery of the service sector.</b></p><p>In Q1 2021, government subsidies of up to $2,000 per person boosted consumer spending; The easing of the pandemic has driven the recovery of service consumption, but it is slightly weaker than the initial optimistic expectations of overseas markets. 1) From a quarterly perspective, US personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant improvement of 3 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. It jumped from being the biggest drag on GDP in Q4 to the biggest contributor, showing that the first quarter had the stimulating effect of both the $600 subsidy in January and the $1,400 subsidy that began to be distributed in March on consumption, as well as the gradual release of service consumption under the easing of the epidemic. 2) From a monthly high-frequency perspective, PCE reached 8.5% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in March, strengthening again after a slight decline during the direct subsidy vacuum in February. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of durable goods and service consumption increased again, reaching 43.3% and 4.8% respectively in March, while the year-on-year growth rate of non-durable goods slowed slightly (4.3%), indicating that the US$1,400 subsidy in March had an immediate stimulating effect on consumption, as well as the recovery of service consumption under the relaxation of prevention and control measures. However, in terms of the strength of the recovery in service consumption, it was actually slightly weaker than the overly optimistic expectations of overseas markets in February and March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/fb6a3cdada866cc05b11f3b44abb7b40.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Consumption of goods and services jointly drove high growth in personal consumption expenditure. 1) Commodity consumption is mainly driven by durable goods. In Q1 2021, commodity consumption contributed 3.2 percentage points to GDP, an improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. This was mainly due to the renewed high growth of durable goods under fiscal stimulus in the first quarter. In Q1 2021, the contribution of durable goods to GDP improved significantly by 1.3 percentage points compared to Q4, while the contribution of non-durable goods to GDP improved only slightly by 0.3 percentage points. 2) Service consumption has a greater impact on GDP growth than durable goods consumption. Although service consumption still had a negative contribution of -1.4% to GDP in Q1 2021, it improved significantly by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The improvement was greater than that of durable goods consumption, demonstrating that service consumption has greater resilience in improving under the dual factors of fiscal subsidies and easing of the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e8b1b37f95a3c799e28a194bc63e56e7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Investment: Equipment investment improved significantly, interest rates suppressed real estate investment, and inventory replenishment did not occur.</b></p><p>The impact of non-residential investment on GDP growth has improved significantly, while private inventory has become a drag. In Q1 2021, domestic private investment contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP year-on-year, a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.</p><p>1) Improved non-residential investment indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector has improved its expectations for the economic outlook. The main contributor to the improvement in private investment was non-residential investment (an improvement of 0.6 percentage points), mainly from equipment investment, indicating that manufacturing companies remain optimistic about the prospects for economic recovery.</p><p>2) The decline in the year-on-year contribution of private inventory changes to GDP in Q1 2021 reflects the gap between supply and demand in the US economy. Strong demand but slow production recovery lead to a decline in inventory. This means that the strengthening of commodity prices in Q1 cannot be supported by the logic of strong US industrial production and proactive inventory replenishment. The main factor dragging down private investment was changes in private inventories (a drag of 0.4 percentage points).</p><p>3) The year-on-year contribution of residential investment to GDP remained basically stable, while the month-on-month growth rate was suppressed by the overall rise in US interest rates in the previous period. It is expected to continue to cool down as interest rates rise in the medium term. In Q1 2021, residential investment's contribution to GDP remained stable. However, with the gradual rise in mortgage rates since 2021, the US real estate market has cooled down, and residential construction spending and existing home sales have slowed down. It is expected that the contribution of residential investment to GDP will gradually decline in the future.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8831f8bd60fdfc9671df61b6e741faaa.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Government spending and net exports: Subsidies drove up government spending, while the widening supply-demand gap led to high import growth.</b></p><p>The supply-demand gap in the US economy has further deepened the drag on GDP from net exports. In Q1 2021, net exports dragged down GDP by 2 percentage points year-on-year, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2020. 1) Exports dragged down by 1 percentage point, but improved by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight recovery in US industrial production. However, this still pales in comparison to the 3.0 percentage point improvement in personal consumption expenditures. In reality, it reflects the widening supply-demand gap in Q1 2021 due to excessive US fiscal subsidies. 2) Imports dragged down GDP by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2021, a significant increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The direct consequence of the widening supply and demand gap in the United States is the expansion of imports.</p><p>Government spending contributed 0.1 percentage points to GDP year-on-year in Q1 2021, mainly due to the U.S. government's direct subsidy checks to the banking system for residents and the cost of purchasing vaccines.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/1e6d4ceb162a00ae93de51b3cf6bb71b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. The US economic recovery is expected to peak in the second quarter; attention should be paid to the subsequent developments of the pandemic.</b></p><p>Looking ahead, we believe the strength of the future U.S. economic recovery will depend on the vaccination progress and the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Assuming that the US pandemic continues to ease and the service sector gradually recovers, the second quarter is expected to be the peak of the US economic recovery. However, the supply-demand gap caused by excessive subsidies will continue until September, and the strength of the US economic recovery this year may not be as strong as the market expects.</p><p>Personal consumption expenditures: 1) Although goods consumption showed extremely strong momentum in Q1 2021, we expect the first quarter to be the peak of goods consumption, and it will gradually decline as subsidies subside; 2) Service sector consumption will continue to gradually recover as the pandemic eases, but the global pandemic has rebounded since March, especially in European countries and emerging countries. At the same time, the spread of more contagious virus variants in the United States and overseas countries will also affect the intensity of the subsequent recovery of the service sector.</p><p>Investment: 1) The main driver of the improvement in non-residential investment in Q1 2021 was positive economic expectations. From the current perspective, the global pandemic is the core factor determining the strength of economic recovery, and the subsequent progress of the pandemic needs to be monitored. 2) Residential investment will decline as the real estate market gradually cools down; 3) Changes in private inventory, i.e., the intensity of inventory replenishment, will depend on whether the current supply-demand gap in the United States can be alleviated. From the current perspective, it may not be until after unemployment benefits end in September that a significant trend of bridging between the supply and demand sides of the United States can emerge, thereby driving inventory investment.</p><p>Government spending and net exports: 1) With the continued payment of unemployment benefits in the second and third quarters, government spending is expected to continue to make a positive year-on-year contribution to GDP until the fourth quarter. If the US jobs program or the US family program can be implemented within the year, it will also boost government spending levels; In terms of net exports, exports will depend on the progress of the recovery of US industrial production, which, as mentioned above, may not be boosted until the fourth quarter, while imports, on the contrary, will fall back to normal levels as the supply-demand gap narrows later this year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/32e1b124c2e79173310a2a69f29f1ee7.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>II. Global macro data: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p><b>1. Epidemic: New confirmed cases in the United States decline</b></p><p>New confirmed cases in the United States declined this week. The average number of new confirmed cases in the United States dropped to more than 53,000 over the past seven days. As of April 29, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 150 million, the cumulative number of deaths reached 3.14 million, and the cumulative number of recoveries reached 120 million. Over the four days of this week (April 27-April 30), the United States and the United Kingdom reported 220,000 and 9,000 new confirmed cases, respectively.</p><p>As of April 28, Israel had the highest average number of COVID-19 vaccines per 100 people globally, at 121.1 doses per 100 people, followed by the United States at 70.2 doses per 100 people and the United Kingdom at 70.9 doses per 100 people. As of April 28, Israel had the highest proportion of fully vaccinated people globally, at 58.7%, followed by the United States and the United Kingdom at 29.3% and 20.7%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/887a942234cb8fe459a2f83e1d51371f.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62573bfd15fa133a1b4a5d4e236f878d.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2. Demand: Japanese retail sales rebounded significantly year-on-year.</b></p><p>Both retail and wholesale sales in Japan saw significant year-on-year growth. Japan's retail sales index rose 5.3% year-on-year in March, with textiles and apparel retailing at 15.8% year-on-year and wholesale sales at 1.0% year-on-year in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a115423dbfa92a2b68fd1ddba7b7202c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>South Korea's retail sales continued to grow year-on-year in March, and consumption of semi-durable goods increased significantly. South Korea's retail sales rose 3.5 percentage points to 13.5% year-on-year in March, with semi-durable goods consumption growing the fastest at 35.5% year-on-year. Durable goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, while non-durable goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/660433692ab7c356ac6e92af5532c956.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>3. Supply and Employment: New orders for U.S. durable goods rose both year-on-year and month-on-month.</b></p><p>U.S. durable goods inventories rose, and new order growth both increased month-on-month. U.S. durable goods inventories reached $431.84 billion in March, up 1.0% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year. New orders for durable goods in the United States rose 0.5% month-on-month in March and a sharp increase of 25% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/00d167c28987b587b0353bdb22cabcb3.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Japan's unemployment rate fell to 2.6% in March. Japan's unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 2.6% in March from the previous month. South Korea's industrial production index rose both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a continued recovery in industry. South Korea's industrial production index rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.8% month-on-month to 112.6 in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/3e518f69ea70eb9423bd2c4c0800a9d4.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. industrial materials production continues to rise. 1) In the week ending April 24, U.S. weekly crude steel production rose 43.6% year-on-year, and capacity utilization increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points from the previous week to 78.4%; 2) As of April 23, the operational capacity utilization rate of U.S. refineries rose by 0.4 percentage points to 85.4%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08378049f4011957a1ca13a61b5f7ee9.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly that week, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly. In the week ending April 24, initial jobless claims in the United States reached 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week; The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits reached 3.66 million in the week ending April 17, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/50abaebb23322c65845134f36edf2eac.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4. Trade: US imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>U.S. imports and exports both rose significantly year-on-year in March. U.S. exports rose sharply by 16.5 percentage points to 11.5% in March from the previous month, while imports rose by 20.6% year-on-year. The U.S. merchandise trade balance was -$90.59 billion in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/b94fcaf0b73f26e0f7e86a9f8b746b80.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5. Inflation and commodities: Oil prices rose slightly.</b></p><p>EIA crude oil inventories rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending April 28, while U.S. crude oil production fell slightly by 100,000 barrels per day to 10.9 million barrels per day. As of April 29, the weekly average price of WTI crude oil rose to $63.2 per barrel; The weekly average price of Brent crude rose to $66.6 per barrel.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2ea9504a69c4ccccc0e74ff1a56da96e.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e2a42a869453a51bf63a352119f75e6a.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6. Real Estate: The US existing home sales index rose year-on-year in March.</b></p><p>The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose for the eighth consecutive month in February. The U.S. S&P/CS home price index rose 11.9% year-over-year to 246.0 in February, marking its eighth consecutive month of gains. The U.S. existing home sales index rose sharply by 23.3% year-on-year and 1.9% month-on-month in March.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6ac3751240b8a02c34f4c66d93fb255b.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>New home starts and construction orders in Japan rose sharply in March. New home starts in Japan in March rose 1.5% year-on-year and 18.1% month-on-month, while construction orders in March rose 12.5% year-on-year and 192.7% month-on-month, the highest increase in nearly a year.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/e961519800be12d5e185f10acff56a58.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>U.S. 5-year mortgage rates fell, while 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose. In the week ending April 29, the 5-year mortgage rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, while the 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates rose to 2.3% and 3.0%, respectively. In the week ending April 23, the U.S. MBA market index fell 18.2 to 706.6, indicating a slight cooling of housing market activity.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/2eb2b206b830b79a11aed2265d986bec.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7. Monetary policy and exchange rates: the US Dollar Index fell, while gold prices remained basically stable.</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting, Powell's speech was dovish, the US Dollar Index fell, and gold prices remained basically stable. On April 28 local time, the Federal Reserve released its interest rate meeting statement. At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said that it would take some time to see substantial progress, and that the current scale of asset purchases would be maintained before that. It was not yet time to discuss Taper, and the US Dollar Index continued to decline. As of April 29, the the US Dollar Index closed at 90.6140, down 0.7% from the previous week; The euro and the pound sterling closed at 1.2129 and 1.3906 against the dollar respectively (pound sterling exchange rate data as of the 28th), appreciating 0.7% and depreciating 0.2% respectively from last week; The Canadian dollar strengthened, closing at 1.2292, up 1.7% from last week, as the Bank of Canada took the lead in tapering. The average weekly price of gold in London this week was $1,774.8 per ounce, basically stable from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points to 3.6%.</p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c2e4e8d549f84a56f7d651806cc3a657.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/09b461fbeb60aed3abf2e7ffd691b486.jpg\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"551\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20210501/20210501134714_46528.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/466474.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2132567538","content_text":"本文来自“申万宏源宏观”。摘要一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期。美国21Q1  GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济快速复苏。但主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复。1)21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点。商品消费主要为耐用品推动，而服务消费对GDP拉动的改善幅度大于耐用品消费;2)月度高频角度，3月PCE同比8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善;2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持;3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增。美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展。我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：预计1季度是商品消费高点，服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度;投资：非住宅投资的改善需要关注后续疫情进展。住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;私人库存变动或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后得以改善。政府支出和净出口：政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献。净出口将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据本周高频数据：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降。需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升。供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升。贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行。房地产：美3月成屋签约销售指数上升。货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格稳定。全球宏观日历：关注美国ISM制造业PMI正文一、周观点：美国一季度GDP究竟是偏强还是偏弱?1.21Q1美国GDP同比0.4%，略低于市场预期美国21Q1GDP实际同比0.4%，疫情以来首次同比转正，环比1.6%。主要贡献因素为商品消费、服务消费、非住宅投资，显示出疫情改善+财政补贴下美国经济相对较快的复苏。主要拖累项为私人存货变动及进口，且实际上，美国一季度GDP增速是小幅低于市场预期的，显示市场对美国过度财政补贴导致生产恢复缓慢的认识不足，以及对疫情改善过度乐观的预期。2.居民消费：补贴推动商品消费，疫情缓和服务业修复21Q1高达2000美金/人的财政补贴拉动商品消费;疫情缓和推动服务消费恢复，但略弱于前期海外市场乐观预期。1)从季度角度看，21Q1美国个人消费支出拉动GDP同比1.1个百分点，较20Q4大幅改善3个百分点，从4季度对GDP最大的拖累项一跃转为最大的贡献项，显示一季度同时具备1月600美金补贴以及3月开始发放的1400美金补贴对消费的刺激效果，以及疫情缓和下服务消费的渐次释放。2)而从月度高频角度，3月PCE同比达到8.5%，环比3.7%，在2月直接补贴真空期小幅回落后再度走强。其中，耐用品、服务消费同比增速再度提升，3月分别达到43.3%和4.8%，而非耐用品同比略有放缓(4.3%)，显示3月1400美金补贴发放对于消费立竿见影的刺激效果，以及防控措施放松下服务消费的恢复。但从服务消费恢复的强度来看，实际上略弱于2-3月海外市场的过度乐观预期。商品消费、服务消费共同驱动个人消费支出高增。1)商品消费主要为耐用品推动。21Q1商品消费对GDP拉动3.2个百分点，较20Q4改善1.5个百分点，主要归功于耐用品在一季度财政刺激下再度高增，21Q1耐用品对GDP贡献度较4季度大幅改善1.3个百分点，而非耐用品对GDP贡献度仅小幅改善0.3个百分点;2)服务消费对GDP拉动效果的改善幅度大于耐用品消费。21Q1服务消费对GDP虽然仍为-1.4%的负拉动，但已较上季度大幅改善1.6个百分点，改善幅度更甚于耐用品消费，显示出服务消费在财政补贴+疫情缓和双重因素下改善的弹性更大。3.投资：设备投资改善显著，利率抑制地产投资，补库存并未出现非住宅投资对GDP拉动效果大幅改善，私人存货转为拖累。21Q1国内私人投资拉动GDP同比0.8个百分点，较4季度小幅改善0.1个百分点。1)非住宅投资改善显示美国生产部门对经济前景预期有所改善。私人投资改善的主要贡献因素为非住宅投资(改善0.6个百分点)，其中主要来自于设备投资，显示制造业企业对经济恢复前景保持乐观。2)私人存货变动对21Q1  GDP同比贡献的下降是美国经济供需撕裂的体现，需求旺盛而生产恢复缓慢，从而导致库存下降，这也就意味着Q1大宗商品价格的走强并不能得到美国工业生产强劲、主动补库存逻辑的支持。拖累私人投资的主要因素为私人存货变动(拖累0.4个百分点)。3)住宅投资对GDP同比贡献基本保持稳定，环比增速则随前期美国利率的整体抬升而受到抑制。后续预计将随着利率的中期上行过程而持续降温。21Q1住宅投资对GDP的拉动保持稳定，但随着21年以来抵押贷款利率的逐步上行，美国房地产市场已经有所降温，住宅营建支出、成屋销售已经有所放缓，预计后续住宅投资对GDP的拉动效果将逐步下降。4.政府支出和净出口：补贴推动政府支出增加，供需缺口拉大导致进口高增美国经济供需撕裂导致净出口对GDP拖累程度再度加深。21Q1净出口拖累GDP同比2个百分点，拖累程度较上20Q4扩大0.7个百分点。1)出口拖累1个百分点，但已较上个季度改善0.2个百分点，显示美国工业生产的小幅恢复，但相比个人消费支出3.0个百分点的改善幅度仍然相形见绌，实际体现的是美国过度财政补贴下21Q1供需缺口的拉大;2)而进口在21Q1拖累GDP同比1.0个百分点，拖累程度较上季度大幅扩大0.9个百分点，美国供需缺口拉大的直接后果便是进口规模的扩大。政府支出21Q1对GDP同比拉动0.1个百分点，主要由于美国政府向银行体系发放针对居民的直接补贴支票以及购买疫苗费用。5.预计美国经济复苏2季度为高点，关注疫情后续进展展望未来，我们认为未来美国经济恢复的强度依赖于疫苗接种进程，以及新冠疫情的扩散情况。在美国疫情持续缓和、服务业渐进修复的假设下，预计2季度为美国经济恢复高点，但由于过度补贴导致的供需撕裂情况将持续到9月份，年内美国经济恢复的强度或将不会如市场预期一般强劲。个人消费支出：1)虽然21Q1商品消费显示出极为强劲的势头，但我们预计1季度已经是商品消费高点，后续将随着补贴退潮而逐步回落;2)服务业消费将继续随着疫情缓和而渐进式恢复，但3月以来全球疫情有所反弹，特别是在欧洲国家以及新兴国家，同时美国本土及海外国家传染性更强的病毒变种的传播也将影响后续服务业恢复强度。投资：1)21Q1非住宅投资的改善主要驱动力为经济向好预期，而从当前时点来看，全球疫情是决定经济恢复强度的核心因素，需要关注后续疫情进展;2)住宅投资将随着地产市场的逐步降温而走低;3)私人库存变动，即补库存的力度将依赖于美国供需撕裂的现状是否能够缓和，从当前来看，或要等到9月失业补贴结束之后，美国供需两端才能出现显著的弥合趋势，进而带动库存投资。政府支出和净出口：1)随着失业补贴在2、3季度的持续发放，政府支出预计将在4季度前持续对GDP同比形成正贡献，而如果美国就业计划或美国家庭计划能够在年内落地，也将提振政府支出水平;净出口方面，出口将依赖于美国工业生产恢复的进度，如上文所说，或要到4季度才能得到提振，进口则恰恰相反，将随着今年后期供需缺口的收窄而回落到正常水平。二、全球宏观数据：美国新增确诊病例下降1.疫情：美国新增确诊病例下降本周美国新增确诊病例下降。美国新增确诊7日平均下降至5.3万人以上。截止4月29日，全球新冠疫情累计确诊超过1.5亿，累计死亡病例314万人，累计康复病例1.2亿人。本周四天(4月27日-4月30日)美国、英国分别新增确诊病例22万人和0.9万人。截止4月28日，全球范围内平均每百人接种新冠疫苗最多的是以色列，达每百人121.1针，美国每百人70.2针，英国每百人70.9针。截止4月28日，全球范围内完全接种疫苗的人占人口比例最高的是以色列，达58.7%，美国、英国分别为29.3%、20.7%。2.需求：日本零售销售同比大幅回升日本零售销售和批发销售同比均大幅上行。日本3月零售销售指数同比5.3%，其中零售中纺织服装同比15.8%，3月批发销售指数同比1.0%。韩国3月零售销售同比持续增长，半耐用品消费大幅增长。韩国3月零售销售同比较上月上升3.5个百分点至13.5%，其中半耐用品消费增速最快，同比35.5%;耐用品同比13.6%，非耐用品同比6.5%。3.供给与就业：美国耐用品新订单同环比均上升美国耐用品库存上升，新订单增速同环比均上升。3月美国耐用品库存达4318.4亿美元，环比上升1.0%，同比增长1.7%。美国3月耐用品新订单环比上升0.5%，同比大幅上升25%。日本3月失业率下降至2.6%。3月日本失业率较上月下降0.3个百分点至2.6%。韩国工业生产指数同环比均上升，工业持续回升。韩国3月工业生产指数同比上升5.7%，环比上升0.8%至112.6。美国工业材料生产持续上升。1)截止4月24日当周，美国周度粗钢产量同比上升43.6%，产能利用率较上周小幅上升0.4个百分点至78.4%;2)截止4月23日，美国炼油厂可运营能力利用率上升0.4个百分点至85.4%。美国当周初请失业金人数小幅下降，持续申领失业金人数小幅上升。4月24日当周美国初请失业金人数达55.3万人，环比上周下降1.3万人;4月17日当周持续申领失业金人数达366万人，环比上升0.9万人。4.贸易：美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升美国3月进出口同比均大幅上升。美国3月出口增速较上月大幅上升16.5个百分点至11.5%，进口同比20.6%。美国3月份商品贸易差额为-905.9亿美元。5.通胀和大宗商品：油价小幅上行4月28日当周EIA原油库存上升900万桶，美国原油产量小幅下降10万桶/日至1090万桶/日。截止4月29日，WTI原油周均价上升至63.2美元/桶;布油周均价上升至66.6美元/桶。6.房地产：美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比上升美国2月标普/CS房价指数连续8个月上涨。2月美国标普/CS房价指数同比上升11.9%至246.0，连续8个月上涨。美国3月成屋签约销售指数同比大幅23.3%，环比1.9%。日本3月新屋开工、营建订单大幅上行。日本3月新屋开工同比1.5%，环比18.1%，3月营建订单数同比12.5%，环比192.7%，涨幅达到近一年最高。美国5年期抵押贷款利率下降，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率上升。截止4月29日当周，5年期抵押贷款利率下降0.2个百分点至2.6%，15年期、30年期抵押贷款利率分别上升至2.3%和3.0%。截止4月23日当周，美国MBA市场指数下降18.2至706.6，房市热度小幅回落。7.货币政策和汇率：美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定本周美联储议息会议召开，鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数下跌，黄金价格基本稳定。当地时间4月28日，美联储公布议息会议声明，鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示看到实质性进展仍需一些时间，在此之前会维持当前的资产购买规模，现在还未到讨论Taper的时间，美元指数持续下行。截至4月29日，美元指数报收90.6140，较上周下行0.7%;欧元、英镑兑美元汇率(英镑汇率数据截至28日)分别报收1.2129、1.3906，分别较上周升值0.7%、贬值0.2%;由于加拿大央行率先Taper，加元走强，报收1.2292，较上周升值1.7%。本周伦敦金周均价1774.8美元/盎司，较上周基本稳定，同比涨幅较上周下行1.2pct至3.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101197072,"gmtCreate":1619856491896,"gmtModify":1704335809145,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?&nbsp;","listText":"?&nbsp;","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/101197072","repostId":"2131556829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132073694,"gmtCreate":1622050102018,"gmtModify":1704178561059,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132073694","repostId":"2138519408","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138519408","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622011111,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138519408?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 14:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Three factors indicate that the \"reverse period\" of technology stocks is not over yet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138519408","media":"Wind资讯","summary":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14","content":"<p>The Nasdaq index has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have subsided. However, analysts say that future price volatility, current valuations of technology stocks, and capital flows all indicate that the current correction in US technology companies is not over.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211 points. Since then, the index has corrected by nearly 3%. While the index’s more than 1.5% gain on Monday may reassure some investors, the macroeconomic drivers of technology stocks, which have led the market over the past decade, still face challenges.</p><p>RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said, \"We believe there are no problems with the fundamentals of the technology sector, but we believe this is an overheld and overvalued part of the market, which is currently a wrong macroeconomic context for this part of the market.\"</p><p>The current market backdrop is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after the shock of a pandemic. Therefore, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are more favored than sectors and investment styles that can achieve growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>A report released by strategists last Friday showed that investors continue to invest in stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials, and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices are soaring, and expectations for infrastructure are also rising. The combination of higher economic growth and higher interest rates has injected vitality into the financial system.</p><p>The money entering this field comes from investors who are reducing their technology transactions. Calvasina stated, \"We believe inflationary pressures already exist, and the technology sector is one of the largest sources of funding for a return to inflation... so we don't think now is the best time to return to this sector.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different perspectives, attempting to explore whether the pullback in large tech companies has been sufficient. Several reasons indicate that the correction in technology companies is not yet over.</p><p>Calvasina points out that technology stocks are still overvalued relative to historical valuations in other parts of the market and technology stocks. As we mentioned above, capital inflows are not encouraging, with technology ETFs experiencing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappointed the market</b></p><p>Consumer confidence fell short of expectations in April, while the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The Conference Board of Economic Advisors noted that, at least to some extent, the short-term income outlook is under pressure from inflation concerns. Another report released Tuesday morning showed that house prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting that a mismatch between supply and demand in more key areas of the economy is pushing up house prices.</p><p>However, some members of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) have suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will lead to near-term changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Caijing stated that he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary,\" and that the Federal Reserve \"has not yet reached that level\" when discussing tapering its asset purchases.</p><p>In another commentary, Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said she did not want the Federal Reserve to \"rely too much on historical relationships and dynamics when judging the inflation outlook.\" Federal Reserve officials have recently delivered a series of speeches downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market gains.</p><p>Although the past two days of trading have provided investors with at least a brief respite following last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about the stock market given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>\"Everyone now knows they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the potential impact that could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability,\" Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday. \"If they decide to keep rising input costs on their balance sheets, that's fine, at least on the consumer side. We won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we might see profit margins rise.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the advances led by the latest technologies may be short-lived. Calvasina stated, \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people shifting funds from technology stocks to other sectors such as financials, energy, and materials. We do not believe these inflationary pressures will ease in the short term.\"</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Three factors indicate that the \"reverse period\" of technology stocks is not over yet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThree factors indicate that the \"reverse period\" of technology stocks is not over yet\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Wind资讯</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 14:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Nasdaq index has rebounded since May 19 as market concerns about inflation have subsided. However, analysts say that future price volatility, current valuations of technology stocks, and capital flows all indicate that the current correction in US technology companies is not over.</p><p>On April 29, the Nasdaq Composite Index hit a record high of 14,211 points. Since then, the index has corrected by nearly 3%. While the index’s more than 1.5% gain on Monday may reassure some investors, the macroeconomic drivers of technology stocks, which have led the market over the past decade, still face challenges.</p><p>RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said, \"We believe there are no problems with the fundamentals of the technology sector, but we believe this is an overheld and overvalued part of the market, which is currently a wrong macroeconomic context for this part of the market.\"</p><p>The current market backdrop is that growth and inflation are accelerating as the economy reopens after the shock of a pandemic. Therefore, industries and investment styles that benefit more from accelerated GDP growth are more favored than sectors and investment styles that can achieve growth in other environments.</p><p>Led by Parag Thatte<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>A report released by strategists last Friday showed that investors continue to invest in stocks and fixed-income products seen as inflation winners, such as TIPS, energy, materials, and financial stocks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a6d3d53b8204d51b0cd1ebdb3c8fb7\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Energy, materials, and financial stocks also performed well in cyclical trading, value trading, and reopening trading. Commodity prices are soaring, and expectations for infrastructure are also rising. The combination of higher economic growth and higher interest rates has injected vitality into the financial system.</p><p>The money entering this field comes from investors who are reducing their technology transactions. Calvasina stated, \"We believe inflationary pressures already exist, and the technology sector is one of the largest sources of funding for a return to inflation... so we don't think now is the best time to return to this sector.\"</p><p>In a report published last week, Calvasina and her team delved into the shift in investor style from different perspectives, attempting to explore whether the pullback in large tech companies has been sufficient. Several reasons indicate that the correction in technology companies is not yet over.</p><p>Calvasina points out that technology stocks are still overvalued relative to historical valuations in other parts of the market and technology stocks. As we mentioned above, capital inflows are not encouraging, with technology ETFs experiencing flat inflows this year.</p><p><b>Economic data disappointed the market</b></p><p>Consumer confidence fell short of expectations in April, while the Conference Board's overall confidence index fell more than expected last month. The Conference Board of Economic Advisors noted that, at least to some extent, the short-term income outlook is under pressure from inflation concerns. Another report released Tuesday morning showed that house prices rose by the most in 15 years in March, highlighting that a mismatch between supply and demand in more key areas of the economy is pushing up house prices.</p><p>However, some members of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (fomc) have suggested that market participants may not need to worry that rising prices will lead to near-term changes in monetary policy in the short term. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Monday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">Yahoo</a>Caijing stated that he believes the rise in inflation is \"mostly temporary,\" and that the Federal Reserve \"has not yet reached that level\" when discussing tapering its asset purchases.</p><p>In another commentary, Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said she did not want the Federal Reserve to \"rely too much on historical relationships and dynamics when judging the inflation outlook.\" Federal Reserve officials have recently delivered a series of speeches downplaying the need for short-term monetary policy measures that could dampen market gains.</p><p>Although the past two days of trading have provided investors with at least a brief respite following last week's stock market sell-off, some strategists remain cautious about the stock market given that concerns about inflation remain high.</p><p>\"Everyone now knows they should be worried about inflationary pressures and the potential impact that could have on monetary policy or corporate profitability,\" Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade, told Yahoo Finance on Monday. \"If they decide to keep rising input costs on their balance sheets, that's fine, at least on the consumer side. We won't see inflation rise, but when earnings come out (in the second quarter), we might see profit margins rise.\"</p><p>Others have also pointed out that the advances led by the latest technologies may be short-lived. Calvasina stated, \"We still believe inflationary pressures exist, with people shifting funds from technology stocks to other sectors such as financials, energy, and materials. We do not believe these inflationary pressures will ease in the short term.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html\">Wind资讯</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d770a193c6a88684d0203fd2ec91e4a","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/481817.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138519408","content_text":"随着市场对通胀的担忧有所消化，纳斯达克指数自5月19日以来反弹。但分析师表示，未来价格的波动因素、科技股当前估值及资金流向均表明，当前美股科技公司的回调尚未结束。\n4月29日，纳斯达克综合指数触及14211点的纪录高点。自那以来，该指数回调已接近3%。尽管该指数周一超过1.5%的涨幅可能会让一些投资者放心，但过去10年引领市场的科技股的宏观驱动力仍面临挑战。\nRBC策略师Lori Calvasina表示：“我们认为科技领域的基本面没有任何问题，但我们认为，这是市场上被过度持有、估值过高的一部分，目前对这部分市场来说，这是一个错误的宏观背景。”\n当前市场的背景是，随着经济在一场疫情引发的冲击后重新开放，增长和通胀正在加速。因此，与能够在其他环境中获得增长的领域和投资风格相比，从GDP加速增长中获益更多的行业和投资风格更受青睐。\n以Parag Thatte为首的德意志银行策略师上周五发布报告显示，投资者继续将资金投入被视为通胀赢家的股票和固定收益产品，如TIPS、能源、材料和金融类股。\n\n能源、材料和金融类股在周期性交易、价值交易和重新开放交易中也有很好的表现。大宗商品价格飙升，对基础设施的期望也在上升。更高的经济增长与更高的利率相结合，为金融体系注入了活力。\n进入这一领域的资金来自于减少科技交易的投资者。Calvasina称：\"我们认为通胀压力已经存在，科技行业是重返通货再膨胀的最大资金来源之一……所以我们认为现在还不是回到这个领域的最佳时机。”\n在上周发表的一份报告中，Calvasina和她的团队从不同的角度深入研究了投资者风格的转变，试图探索大型科技公司的回调是否已经充分。而几大原因表明，目前科技公司的回调尚未结束。\nCalvasina指出，相对于市场其他部分和科技股的历史估值，科技股当前的估值仍然偏高。正如我们上面提到的，资金流入情况并不令人鼓舞，今年科技ETF的资金流入持平。\n经济数据令市场失望\n4月份消费者信心指数低于预期，美国经济谘商会(Conference Board)上月的整体信心指数跌幅超过预期。美国经济谘商会指出，至少在一定程度上，短期收入前景受到通胀担忧的压力。周二上午公布的另一份报告显示，3月份房价创下15年来的最大涨幅，突显出经济中更多关键领域的供需不匹配推高了房价。\n不过，美国联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)部分成员暗示，市场人士可能不需要担心物价上涨会在短期内促成货币政策的近期变动。圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德(James Bullard)周一对雅虎财经表示，他认为通胀上升\"大多是暂时的\"，而美联储在讨论缩减资产购买规模时\"还没有达到\"。\n堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主席埃斯特•乔治在另一篇评论中表示，她不希望美联储\"在判断通胀前景时过度依赖历史关系和动态\"。美联储官员最近发表了一系列讲话，淡化了采取短期货币政策措施的必要性，这些措施可能会抑制市场涨势。\n尽管在上周的股市抛售之后，过去两天的交易给投资者提供了至少短暂的喘息机会，但鉴于对通胀的担忧仍居高不下，一些策略师仍对股市持谨慎态度。\nTD Ameritrade高级市场策略师Shawn Cruz周一对雅虎财经表示，\"现在所有人都知道，他们应该担心通胀压力，以及这可能对货币政策或企业盈利能力造成的影响。\"“如果他们决定将不断上升的投入成本保留在资产负债表上，那很好，至少在消费者方面，我们不会看到通胀上升，但(第二季度)盈利出来时，我们可能会看到利润率上升。”\n其他人也指出，最新的技术引领的进步可能是短暂的。Calvasina表示：“我们仍认为通胀压力存在，人们将资金从科技股移至其他板块，如金融股、能源股和材料股。我们不认为这些通胀压力会在短期内减轻。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":262690950426928,"gmtCreate":1705167581334,"gmtModify":1705167585302,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","listText":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","text":"🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/262690950426928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":258903103000576,"gmtCreate":1704242648195,"gmtModify":1704242651687,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/258903103000576","repostId":"248312805347464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":248312805347464,"gmtCreate":1701660745864,"gmtModify":1703059991513,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d95d339b1f41503e283097a33ab3ba9d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667667103859","idStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅","htmlText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","listText":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct &amp; Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","text":"Hey Tycoons! 🎩💼 Ready to embark on the adventure of a lifetime? Introducing the Tiger Tycoon Challenge – where fortunes are made, and USD 888 worth of prizes await the boldest players! 🏰🌈🎯 Objective: Build your empire, score big points, and unlock fabulous rewards!💰 Gold Rush: Grab those shiny gold coins every time you pass by it! Cha-ching! 💰💵🏠 Construct & Conquer: Step on an empty tile to construct a building to gain points! 🏰🏆 Prizes Galore: Hit the prize tile to claim your treasure – it could be anything! 🎁✨🔄 Lucky Draw: Land on the draw tile and brace yourself! You might move forward, backward, or even unlock a secret power! 🔄🔮🚀 Airdrop Alert: Keep your eyes on the sky! Periodically, the Tiger Tycoon map will rain down special rewards like stocks, vouchers, and more. Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":251274818994280,"gmtCreate":1702383715547,"gmtModify":1702383718424,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4eca804b1d7bfd8510044aad5ae3a8e9","width":"906","height":"1406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/251274818994280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916384387,"gmtCreate":1664511428849,"gmtModify":1676537469196,"author":{"id":"3573688531814941","authorId":"3573688531814941","name":"ccssyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/788037228f49cc166fdc5223f0073775","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573688531814941","idStr":"3573688531814941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916384387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}